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Punters think the Tories will lose ALL the July by-elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,910
    SandraMc said:

    Did

    I've been to the house where he was born. It's nothing special.
    For the time it was - leastways, compared to those who truly came from nothing. True, they were not aristos, but they were not exactly poor either AIUI. They were probably like the Bennet family in Pride and Prejudice.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,426
    IanB2 said:

    Experienced the Norwegian health service today, dropping in to their A&E because of a troublesome ear infection that hasn’t responded to over-the-counter stuff. My, was it impressive. More than anything it reminded me of the NHS we were supposed to be getting according to that Leave Campaign ad. More staff than patients, clean modern facilities, seen within ten minutes, blood test, doctor inspection, out within 45 minutes with a prescription, all for a £17 fee, the same that Norwegians pay, as my EHIC card hasn’t quite yet expired. Remarkable.

    Earlier I did another of Clarkson’s world’s best drives, over the Trollstigen, although it was so cloudy you could hardly see anything. But it was a fun drive.

    Since it’s grey and wet today, here’s a photo of a small lake from yesterday, dog for scale.


    Has there ever been a more endearing dog than that? I'm anxious around them (having been savaged by one at age 5) but I reckon I'd be ok there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Penddu2 said:

    I think you will find that it is from Welsh - Ambiwlans
    Same as Welsh Tacsi...
    From memory, Taxi and Ambulance are the two words that hardly ever need translating.

    If you need a car with driver that you can flag down on the street, or a vehicle to take a sick person to the hospital, those two words are pretty much universal when spoken.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    geoffw said:

    Sweden given the go-ahead by Türkiye to join NATO is big news here in Finland. Can't see anything about it in our main press

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/11/erdogan-boxes-clever-for-turkish-interests-as-sweden-wins-nato-prize
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    SandraMc said:

    Did

    I've been to the house where he was born. It's nothing special.
    Oooh, get you. Looking at http://decouvertes.fr/content/maison-bonaparte I would say that for most of us, it's as grand as any house we have ever been inside without paying.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,140
    edited July 2023
    Rubbish!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,943
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/11/erdogan-boxes-clever-for-turkish-interests-as-sweden-wins-nato-prize
    Yeah, not on the front page

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,082
    Pagan2 said:

    FPT

    Correction brexit backers are the people who voted yes to stay in back in the 70's and after watching how it evolved over 50 odd years when yeah no thanks. People who never saw the alternative of pre eu went yes we want to stay in.

    The only demographic that had both experiences told the eu to fuck off. Those that only knew one side stayed sucking at mummy eu's teat
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    Boomers were never that keen on Europe.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Sandpit said:

    From memory, Taxi and Ambulance are the two words that hardly ever need translating.

    If you need a car with driver that you can flag down on the street, or a vehicle to take a sick person to the hospital, those two words are pretty much universal when spoken.
    Don't try this in Greece. I once spent 20 minutes yelling at a bunch of elderly Cretans that I wanted a taxi. At minute 21 one of them said ah, I get it, he wants a taxEE. In Greek tAxi means OK, so they thought I had been telling them I was fine.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,546

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    Boomers were never that keen on Europe.
    Please don't talk total bollocks the 18 - 29 group voted 60% in favour of the eu from your chart. Those would be the boomers you talk about. 60 percent in favour does not imply not keen on europe
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,066
    I’m starting to think the BBC Presenter involved in the scandal should now come forward publicly. These new allegations will result in yet more vitriol being thrown at perfectly innocent colleagues of his. And the BBC, which I’m sure he loves, is on its knees with this.
    But it is his decision and his alone.

    https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1678812329113272320
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,312
    Evening all :)

    My sense is while the Conservatives will lose all three seats, the Selby result will be the most spectacular. I think the Greens may finish third just in front of the LDs and the Yorkshire Party.

    In Somerton & Frome, I expect an LD win but not on a 30% swing - probably nearer 15-20%, underwhelming but still positive for Davey. Uxbridge will shift Labour but again not by a huge margin and with a swing well below that seen in some recent polling.

    As for the REAL elections this Thursday, Wall End will be an easy Labour hold but Boleyn will be more dramatic with the Greens running Labour very close.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,488
    edited July 2023
    .
    Roger said:

    Rubbish!

    It's either a rightwing plot against the BBC/a good day to bury bad news or the BBC is a cesspit full of nonces/ the end of the TV licence......
    You'll believe whatever fits your world view, same as Big G.
    Me? I couldn't give a toss.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,243
    We have a new contender for the thickest MP.

    Needless to say, this is an absurd interpretation of the Refugee Convention. The issue is whether citizens of a State have a well-founded fear of persecution there on the grounds listed in the Convention, not whether that State is nice to foreign tourists.

    Anna Firth MP reckons there is no reason for any Indian or Turkish people to claim asylum, because "British people go there on holiday".

    The ignorance on display is breathtaking.


    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1678822741271539726
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Miklosvar said:

    Don't try this in Greece. I once spent 20 minutes yelling at a bunch of elderly Cretans that I wanted a taxi. At minute 21 one of them said ah, I get it, he wants a taxEE. In Greek tAxi means OK, so they thought I had been telling them I was fine.
    Given it's a Greek word, they can be forgiven for having their views on it being spoken in Greek rather than French ...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,943
    edited July 2023
    Pagan2 said:

    Please don't talk total bollocks the 18 - 29 group voted 60% in favour of the eu from your chart. Those would be the boomers you talk about. 60 percent in favour does not imply not keen on europe
    The Common Market of 1975 was a very different animal from the EC of 2016. The meaning of 'ever closer union' became starkly clear in the meantime not to mention the idea of an 'acquis communitaire'
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,546
    Pagan2 said:

    Please don't talk total bollocks the 18 - 29 group voted 60% in favour of the eu from your chart. Those would be the boomers you talk about. 60 percent in favour does not imply not keen on europe
    I give you this chart
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/520954/brexit-votes-by-age/

    only the 18-24s were more in favour of europe than in the 7- referendum than the boomers on 62% that you claimed werent keen....the 25-34 group in 2016 were equal to the boomers in the 70's to the "not keen boomers".

    My point is valid, the more experience voters had of the eu the more they wanted to say fuck off.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited July 2023

    We have a new contender for the thickest MP.

    Needless to say, this is an absurd interpretation of the Refugee Convention. The issue is whether citizens of a State have a well-founded fear of persecution there on the grounds listed in the Convention, not whether that State is nice to foreign tourists.

    Anna Firth MP reckons there is no reason for any Indian or Turkish people to claim asylum, because "British people go there on holiday".

    The ignorance on display is breathtaking.


    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1678822741271539726

    Even more remarkably, in that clip she says "India... has its own space programme".
    Good to know that countries that send people into space can't possibly also persecute anybody.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,243
    Have we done the start of the Tory fightback in the Red Wall?

    Labour leads by 25% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

    Red Wall VI (9 July):

    Labour 52% (-1)
    Conservative 27% (+1)
    Reform UK 9% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 6% (–)
    Green 4% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 25 June

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1678796293198741504
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,243
    The Tories are going to get beaten like morning wood in the Red Wall.

    Do voters in the Red Wall believe the Government is currently taking the right measures to address the cost-of-living crisis? (9 July)

    No 66% (–)
    Yes 20% (-2)
    Don't know 14% (+2)

    Changes +/- 25 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1678813961502720028
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,352

    We have a new contender for the thickest MP.

    Needless to say, this is an absurd interpretation of the Refugee Convention. The issue is whether citizens of a State have a well-founded fear of persecution there on the grounds listed in the Convention, not whether that State is nice to foreign tourists.

    Anna Firth MP reckons there is no reason for any Indian or Turkish people to claim asylum, because "British people go there on holiday".

    The ignorance on display is breathtaking.


    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1678822741271539726

    Technically maybe but I expect she knows most of her Southend constituents will agree with her, Turkey and India are hardly warzones with mass genocide
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,546
    Pagan2 said:

    I give you this chart
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/520954/brexit-votes-by-age/

    only the 18-24s were more in favour of europe than in the 7- referendum than the boomers on 62% that you claimed werent keen....the 25-34 group in 2016 were equal to the boomers in the 70's to the "not keen boomers".

    My point is valid, the more experience voters had of the eu the more they wanted to say fuck off.
    I guess going by standards no one therefore 25 and upwards was keen on the eu?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,243
    edited July 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Technically maybe but I expect she knows most of her Southend constituents will agree with her, Turkey and India are hardly warzones with mass genocide
    Stop defending the indefensible, grow a spine and a conscience.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Technically maybe but I expect she knows most of her Southend constituents will agree with her, Turkey and India are hardly warzones with mass genocide
    Er ... you do know your recent history??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,352

    Gretchen Whitmer is 100 to be Dem candidate.

    Would certainly be far better for them than Newsom or Harris if Biden didn't run again after all
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    Stop defending the indefensible, grow a spine and a conscious.
    And maybe even a conscience?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,243
    edited July 2023

    And maybe even a conscience?
    That is 100% down to auto-correct.

    Any further discussions regarding this should be directed to my social media team.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Stop defending the indefensible, grow a spine and a conscious.
    Talking about Tory MPs and their excuses, this is quite a good read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/11/tory-mp-jonathan-djanogly-stock-portfolio-raises-questions-about-blind-trust-system

    "But the fact that Djanogly’s holdings are listed in shareholder registers under his own name and at an address owned jointly with his father suggests the trust cannot be truly “blind”. Companies regularly correspond with their shareholders to provide information about shareholder meetings, dividend payments and performance updates.

    Djanogly did not dispute that the shares were in his name but said he did not pick up post from the property to which information about the shareholdings would have been sent."
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,508

    Even more remarkably, in that clip she says "India... has its own space programme".
    Good to know that countries that send people into space can't possibly also persecute anybody.
    These people believe in their hearts that all asylum seekers are really economic migrants & cannot possibly have good reasons for requesting asylum in the UK. Hence the comments about space programs & holidays.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,276

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    Boomers were never that keen on Europe.
    60% of 18-29 year olds still voted in favour of Remain, in 1975. These voters were aged 59-70 in 2016, and voted 60% Leave, a swing of 20%. The tipping point where Leave voters outnumbered Remain voters in 2016 was age 42, well past the baby boomer generation.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,372
    Phil said:

    These people believe in their hearts that all asylum seekers are really economic migrants & cannot possibly have good reasons for requesting asylum in the UK. Hence the comments about space programs & holidays.
    Thing is the truth is somewhere between (a) all are economic migrants pretending to need asylum and (b) they are all genuinely in need of asylum.
    I have no idea where the percentage split is.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861
    IanB2 said:

    Experienced the Norwegian health service today, dropping in to their A&E because of a troublesome ear infection that hasn’t responded to over-the-counter stuff. My, was it impressive. More than anything it reminded me of the NHS we were supposed to be getting according to that Leave Campaign ad. More staff than patients, clean modern facilities, seen within ten minutes, blood test, doctor inspection, out within 45 minutes with a prescription, all for a £17 fee, the same that Norwegians pay, as my EHIC card hasn’t quite yet expired. Remarkable.

    Earlier I did another of Clarkson’s world’s best drives, over the Trollstigen, although it was so cloudy you could hardly see anything. But it was a fun drive.

    Since it’s grey and wet today, here’s a photo of a small lake from yesterday, dog for scale.


    Shame, it looks quite good on a sunny day. ;)

    Make sure you visit nearby Romsdalen if you can though, it is seriously impressive. The Troll Wall is the tallest vertical face in Europe.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,955
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Former Conservative leader William "I want more immigration" Hague is a good example of what I argue in latest column

    Whether Left or Right, almost all our politicians now lean much further to the cultural left than most voters

    This is why millions no longer feel represented"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1678822612888088583
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,860
    Pagan2 said:

    Napolean almost created a european superstate and you wonder why some adore him?
    His strategic and tactical military genius were unparalleled. His Code laid the basis for most of Europe's legal system, based on an equality and protection for the private property of all that was at the time revolutionary. He standardised measurements, leading to the metric system we know and use today.

    His ability to seize opportunities, overcome obstacles, and inspire loyalty among his troops and the general public are characteristics that continue to captivate and inspire. It remains one of the greatest stories of history.

    Within France he improved transport and infrastructure, transformed education, and promoted science and discovery. He brought an end to the bloody chaos of the immediate post-revolutionary period and stabilised it such that the French Revolution could go on to inspire revolutionary change around the world, notably leading to the creation of the US.

    His opponents represented the forces of monarchy, hierarchy, and inherited privilege, and although they saw him defeated in the short term, there is no doubt that the Napoleonic upheaval ultimately led to a great leap forward in social progress.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,943

    Thing is the truth is somewhere between (a) all are economic migrants pretending to need asylum and (b) they are all genuinely in need of asylum.
    I have no idea where the percentage split is.
    Really, no idea at all?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,352
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Former Conservative leader William "I want more immigration" Hague is a good example of what I argue in latest column

    Whether Left or Right, almost all our politicians now lean much further to the cultural left than most voters

    This is why millions no longer feel represented"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1678822612888088583

    And why the populist right is surging across Europe and Brexit and Trump happened
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,654
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Former Conservative leader William "I want more immigration" Hague is a good example of what I argue in latest column

    Whether Left or Right, almost all our politicians now lean much further to the cultural left than most voters

    This is why millions no longer feel represented"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1678822612888088583

    Why do you insist on posting Goodwin's rubbish? The man is an absolute arse!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,955
    edited July 2023
    The Post Office Inquiry has had to be delayed until (probably) September because the Post Office itself has been unable to disclose important documents in time, documents which the inquiry needs to scrutinise before it takes evidence from witnesses, (many of whom were due to appear at the inquiry over the next 3 weeks).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,860

    Shame, it looks quite good on a sunny day. ;)

    Make sure you visit nearby Romsdalen if you can though, it is seriously impressive. The Troll Wall is the tallest vertical face in Europe.
    I drove right past it earlier, but could only see the bottom of it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,243
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Former Conservative leader William "I want more immigration" Hague is a good example of what I argue in latest column

    Whether Left or Right, almost all our politicians now lean much further to the cultural left than most voters

    This is why millions no longer feel represented"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1678822612888088583

    That’s an incredibly stupid interpretation of William Hague’s article.

    Oh wait it is Matt Goodwin, as you were.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    Boomers were never that keen on Europe.
    And let's be clear that Brexiteers have done an absolute shite job of convincing Millennials of the case of remaining outside the EU. They really cannot assume at all they'll become more Eurosceptic as they grow older.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,082

    Why do you insist on posting Goodwin's rubbish? The man is an absolute arse!
    Unfortunately for all of us, he's an arse with a loud voice which means ignoring him is not an option.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,910

    Thing is the truth is somewhere between (a) all are economic migrants pretending to need asylum and (b) they are all genuinely in need of asylum.
    I have no idea where the percentage split is.
    It might even be a mixture of the two in one person. Say someone lives in a state where they do not feel happy, because the state infringes on one of their rights (say, they are gay). Other part of their country are more liberal, and they could move there, but they are afraid that those areas might become less liberal. The UK or Europe might seem like a lot freer - and less risky - state.

    It's complex.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861
    edited July 2023
    [Deleted]
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,955

    Thing is the truth is somewhere between (a) all are economic migrants pretending to need asylum and (b) they are all genuinely in need of asylum.
    I have no idea where the percentage split is.
    Almost everyone coming from France cannot be escaping from a dangerous country - unless you think France is a dangerous country.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,006
    IanB2 said:

    His strategic and tactical military genius were unparalleled. His Code laid the basis for most of Europe's legal system, based on an equality and protection for the private property of all that was at the time revolutionary. He standardised measurements, leading to the metric system we know and use today.

    His ability to seize opportunities, overcome obstacles, and inspire loyalty among his troops and the general public are characteristics that continue to captivate and inspire. It remains one of the greatest stories of history.

    Within France he improved transport and infrastructure, transformed education, and promoted science and discovery. He brought an end to the bloody chaos of the immediate post-revolutionary period and stabilised it such that the French Revolution could go on to inspire revolutionary change around the world, notably leading to the creation of the US.

    His opponents represented the forces of monarchy, hierarchy, and inherited privilege, and although they saw him defeated in the short term, there is no doubt that the Napoleonic upheaval ultimately led to a great leap forward in social progress.
    Might be misunderstanding what you have written but the US was created before the French Revolution so before Napoleon’s reign.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,154
    Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s record to date?

    Approve: 13% (=)
    Disapprove: 67% (=)

    via @YouGov, 9-10 Jul

    (Changes with 3 Jul)

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1678837459034034176?t=oOv_EFe43vEYz80jw1pluQ&s=19
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,836
    HYUFD said:

    And why the populist right is surging across Europe and Brexit and Trump happened
    (Deleted)
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    IanB2 said:

    His strategic and tactical military genius were unparalleled. His Code laid the basis for most of Europe's legal system, based on an equality and protection for the private property of all that was at the time revolutionary. He standardised measurements, leading to the metric system we know and use today.

    His ability to seize opportunities, overcome obstacles, and inspire loyalty among his troops and the general public are characteristics that continue to captivate and inspire. It remains one of the greatest stories of history.

    Within France he improved transport and infrastructure, transformed education, and promoted science and discovery. He brought an end to the bloody chaos of the immediate post-revolutionary period and stabilised it such that the French Revolution could go on to inspire revolutionary change around the world, notably leading to the creation of the US.

    His opponents represented the forces of monarchy, hierarchy, and inherited privilege, and although they saw him defeated in the short term, there is no doubt that the Napoleonic upheaval ultimately led to a great leap forward in social progress.
    Then declared himself an Emperor and placed his family members on the conquered thrones of Europe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,358
    kinabalu said:

    Has there ever been a more endearing dog than that? I'm anxious around them (having been savaged by one at age 5) but I reckon I'd be ok there.
    Did he change suzie again, or did Norway ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,654

    Unfortunately for all of us, he's an arse with a loud voice which means ignoring him is not an option.
    From my university days I recall the most outlandish academics were revered the most. Goodwin's off the scale bollocks must put him in the highest echelons of political academia.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861
    edited July 2023
    IanB2 said:

    I drove right past it earlier, but could only see the bottom of it
    Shame, although not unusual, it often has terrible weather.

    It was the site of a famous climbing epic when Norwegian and British parties turned up at the same time to attempt the first ascent in 1965.

    Like at the South Pole, the Norwegians won (by one day!), but in this case both attempts succeeded and nobody was killed. Considering the terrain and the equipment of the time, that was quite a feat. The British route became the standard one but it can't be climbed now because half the route fell down in a massive rockfall.

    https://www.fjords.com/the-pioneers-of-the-troll-wall/

    We did manage to climb a mountain on the opposite side of the valley but couldn't see much of the summit either:


    Slartibartfast really was busy with those glaciers.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The Tories voted to remove support from those trafficked into slavery. By voting against amendment 56 they have helped those traffickers .

    #ToryScum
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,860
    boulay said:

    Might be misunderstanding what you have written but the US was created before the French Revolution so before Napoleon’s reign.
    Yes, that's a glaring error on my part.

    But am I half remembering something - some way in which the French Revolution and Napoleonic era fed back into the development of the early US?

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,546
    Andy_JS said:

    Almost everyone coming from France cannot be escaping from a dangerous country - unless you think France is a dangerous country.
    They are not escaping France. They are passing through France. The "they have to settle in the first safe country" lie is so stupid as to make me question the motivation of anyone still prattling it.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,415
    IanB2 said:

    His strategic and tactical military genius were unparalleled. His Code laid the basis for most of Europe's legal system, based on an equality and protection for the private property of all that was at the time revolutionary. He standardised measurements, leading to the metric system we know and use today.

    His ability to seize opportunities, overcome obstacles, and inspire loyalty among his troops and the general public are characteristics that continue to captivate and inspire. It remains one of the greatest stories of history.

    Within France he improved transport and infrastructure, transformed education, and promoted science and discovery. He brought an end to the bloody chaos of the immediate post-revolutionary period and stabilised it such that the French Revolution could go on to inspire revolutionary change around the world, notably leading to the creation of the US.

    His opponents represented the forces of monarchy, hierarchy, and inherited privilege, and although they saw him defeated in the short term, there is no doubt that the Napoleonic upheaval ultimately led to a great leap forward in social progress.
    ... though:

    - the five million or so who died in his wars somehow never got to see the great leap forward in social progress
    - he was one of very few leaders in modern history to reintroduce slavery after it had been abolished
    - he caused chaos across Europe by grabbing thrones for his useless relatives
    - the protection for private property for some reason never prevented the systematic looting of much of Europe by the Grande Armee
    - the strategic and tactical genius only showed up when he was against second and third rate opponents, and deserted him in Russia, Spain and at Waterloo or whenever he had to think about ships
    - his career was indeed an inspiration to many, not least Franco, Lenin and Hitler

    etc etc.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,910
    IanB2 said:

    His strategic and tactical military genius were unparalleled. His Code laid the basis for most of Europe's legal system, based on an equality and protection for the private property of all that was at the time revolutionary. He standardised measurements, leading to the metric system we know and use today.

    His ability to seize opportunities, overcome obstacles, and inspire loyalty among his troops and the general public are characteristics that continue to captivate and inspire. It remains one of the greatest stories of history.

    Within France he improved transport and infrastructure, transformed education, and promoted science and discovery. He brought an end to the bloody chaos of the immediate post-revolutionary period and stabilised it such that the French Revolution could go on to inspire revolutionary change around the world, notably leading to the creation of the US.

    His opponents represented the forces of monarchy, hierarchy, and inherited privilege, and although they saw him defeated in the short term, there is no doubt that the Napoleonic upheaval ultimately led to a great leap forward in social progress.
    And his over-reaching led to disaster for France, and the deaths of millions of soldiers and civilians. He was a mass-murdering vainglorious genius.

    I'd even argue that his regime and its wars are a reason why the industrial revolution really got going in Britain, rather than France.

    And 'social progress' ? He reintroduced slavery. He was not interested in fighting the forces of monarchy; he wanted to be monarch over all of Europe. He was a tyrant.

    Yes, a tyrant. But also a genius at one thing - war. IMV France - and Europe - would have been better off without him.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Fishing said:

    ... though:

    - the five million or so who died in his wars somehow never got to see the great leap forward in social progress
    - he was one of very few leaders in modern history to reintroduce slavery after it had been abolished
    - he caused chaos across Europe by grabbing thrones for his useless relatives
    - the protection for private property for some reason never prevented the systematic looting of much of Europe by the Grande Armee
    - the strategic and tactical genius only showed up when he was against second and third rate opponents, and deserted him in Russia, Spain and at Waterloo or whenever he had to think about ships
    - his career was indeed an inspiration to many, not least Franco, Lenin and Hitler

    etc etc.
    Without him, what would we have called Waterloo station and Trafalgar Square, huh?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,142
    HYUFD said:

    Technically maybe but I expect she knows most of her Southend constituents will agree with her, Turkey and India are hardly warzones with mass genocide
    And most people’s applications for asylum from either country would be rejected, but that doesn’t mean that no one from those countries deserves asylum.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,557
    Andy_JS said:

    Almost everyone coming from France cannot be escaping from a dangerous country - unless you think France is a dangerous country.
    It is. France is a failed state - according to various human rights groups, they treat asylum seekers so intolerably, that we *must* allow them into The Kingdom of Heaven. The U.K., that is.

    Since they also have some oil, we know what we need to do…..
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,006
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, that's a glaring error on my part.

    But am I half remembering something - some way in which the French Revolution and Napoleonic era fed back into the development of the early US?

    Would probably say that the US “revolution” was inspired by the Wars of the three Kingdoms and the writings of a lot of British thinkers and philosophers more than being French influence considering the French Crown tipped the balance in the Revolutionary war and it’s not unlikely that the US inspired the French Revolution rather than the other way round.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,910
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, that's a glaring error on my part.

    But am I half remembering something - some way in which the French Revolution and Napoleonic era fed back into the development of the early US?

    It was the other way around, as far as I know: France supported the American revolution, in order to hurt the British. Sadly for Louis XVI, that support was vastly costly, and helped the country into a financial crisis. Ideas of liberty and equality, and the knowledge that you could overthrow the shackles of monarchy, emboldened the French revolutionaries.

    Backing the American Revolution may have seemed a wizard wheeze to Louis XVI, but it helped cost him his head.

    IANAE, AIUI etc, etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,557
    Fishing said:

    ... though:

    - the five million or so who died in his wars somehow never got to see the great leap forward in social progress
    - he was one of very few leaders in modern history to reintroduce slavery after it had been abolished
    - he caused chaos across Europe by grabbing thrones for his useless relatives
    - the protection for private property for some reason never prevented the systematic looting of much of Europe by the Grande Armee
    - the strategic and tactical genius only showed up when he was against second and third rate opponents, and deserted him in Russia, Spain and at Waterloo or whenever he had to think about ships
    - his career was indeed an inspiration to many, not least Franco, Lenin and Hitler

    etc etc.
    His methodology for elections was interesting.

    And an inspiration for many a stupid tyrant since.

    He (and his bother) pioneered all the classics - forced voting, inventing votes, dumping ballot boxes in rivers…

    Truly an innovator.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,276
    IanB2 said:

    His strategic and tactical military genius were unparalleled. His Code laid the basis for most of Europe's legal system, based on an equality and protection for the private property of all that was at the time revolutionary. He standardised measurements, leading to the metric system we know and use today.

    His ability to seize opportunities, overcome obstacles, and inspire loyalty among his troops and the general public are characteristics that continue to captivate and inspire. It remains one of the greatest stories of history.

    Within France he improved transport and infrastructure, transformed education, and promoted science and discovery. He brought an end to the bloody chaos of the immediate post-revolutionary period and stabilised it such that the French Revolution could go on to inspire revolutionary change around the world, notably leading to the creation of the US.

    His opponents represented the forces of monarchy, hierarchy, and inherited privilege, and although they saw him defeated in the short term, there is no doubt that the Napoleonic upheaval ultimately led to a great leap forward in social progress.
    Yeah, but no.

    I actually like Napoleon, from all I've read about him. At a personal level, I'm sure I'd have preferred his company to that of Wellington or Nelson.

    He was, as you say, an outstanding military commander. Perhaps the best battlefield commander ever. At a higher level than the battlefield, Egypt, Russia, and Spain were appalling strategic blunders.

    He did a lot of good within France, and withing some parts of Europe, but his soldiers looted Germany and Italy thoroughly. He emancipated the Jews, but reinstated slavery in France's overseas possessions. His treatment of Alexandre Dumas Grandpere, "the Black Count", was appalling.

    10% of Spain's population died of starvation, from 1808-14, mainly due to the requisitions of French soldiers. This was a wholly unnecessary war, which could never have benefitted France, even had he won.

    Napoloen was not Hitler. A lot of what he stood for was good, (the same is also true of Robespierre). But, it was still a very mixed record.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,557
    edited July 2023
    Miklosvar said:

    Without him, what would we have called Waterloo station and Trafalgar Square, huh?
    Agincourt Station and Crecy Square?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,082

    His methodology for elections was interesting.

    And an inspiration for many a stupid tyrant since.

    He (and his bother) pioneered all the classics - forced voting, inventing votes, dumping ballot boxes in rivers…

    Truly an innovator.
    But did he do leaflets headed C'EST UNE CHASSE DE DEUX CHEVEAX?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,282
    EPG said:

    I tend to think "serious" left town when the iPhone arrived, and newspapers had to compete with cat pictures.
    Nothing can compete with cat pictures.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,276
    The French Revolution is probably something I would have hated at the time, had I been alive then. Yet, like the Industrial Revolution, it helped propel us into the modern world.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    That’s an incredibly stupid interpretation of William Hague’s article.

    Oh wait it is Matt Goodwin, as you were.
    The thing about Matt Goodwin is that his predictions of populist revolt don't seem to come to pass.
    If there is another populist revolt on immigration, as was the case with Brexit, it is unlikely to change anything.
    The reality is that immigration will keep happening and it is better to look at how to manage it rather than stop it.
    The best argument against identity politics is that it doesn't help facilitate integration, it just creates division.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,006
    Miklosvar said:

    Without him, what would we have called Waterloo station and Trafalgar Square, huh?
    Well the Waterloo Station would be named after whatever the nearby bridge was named instead of Waterloo Bridge. Can’t give an obnoxious answer re Trafalgar Square however.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,836
    Today on More4. A man is building a hose. The land cost 71k. The planned construction cost is £160k. A total of £231k. He is paying £50k from his savings. His parents have remortgaged their house for the remaining £180k and have given it to him for warm fuzzies.

    How much it will cost by the end? Will it even occur to him to pay his parents back? Will let you know at the end. :(
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,140

    For me, the biggest question in this mess is whether the talent used his position and influence to get things he would otherwise not get. In which case the BBC should get rid of him immediately, as it is an abuse of his position. If not - and what happened was legal - then not.

    Aside from that, it appears so far to be nowhere near as clear-cut case as Schofield.

    I saw some photos of a footballer of my acquaintance earlier today with a very scantily clad girl all over him. They were in Ibiza and seemed to be having fun. In Jessops world would this man be using his position and influence to get things he wouldn't otherwise get or is is it just a case of the birds and the bees and a nice celebration after winning the treble?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,415
    edited July 2023
    boulay said:

    Well the Waterloo Station would be named after whatever the nearby bridge was named instead of Waterloo Bridge. Can’t give an obnoxious answer re Trafalgar Square however.
    {EDIT - I was wrong, mixing up Picadilly Circus with Trafalgar Square} We're not exactly short of national heroes, and it would probably be called Churchill Square, or something, at least until Winston is cancelled sometime around 2025.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,312
    As a complete aside, Waterloo Station is 175 years old this week.

    There's a pleasant little exhibition on the concourse underneath the famous clock with a photographic and pictorial history of the station.

    The numbers on the platform between the wars is extraordinary - the station's role in both world conflicts is explained - for me, the most interesting part was from the early 1900s with the crowds heading for Ascot - they had to put on separate booths to sell tickets to Ascot.

    There's also the history of the Atlantic Coast Express and the other holiday trains which ran from Waterloo to the south west from the mid 20s until 1939 and then from 1945 onward. There were five trains which departed Waterloo before 11 taking holidaymakers to Ilfracombe, Bude, Newquay and other resorts.

    The trains were so long they couldn't all fit in on the Waterloo platforms so they would start two on separate platforms and then join them up at Clapham.

    An echo of the service was re-started by Great Western in 2018 and there's still a summer daily departure to Newquay from Paddington.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861

    And most people’s applications for asylum from either country would be rejected, but that doesn’t mean that no one from those countries deserves asylum.
    Telling those that deserve it from those that do not is nigh on impossible.

    So what to do?

    We seem to be going for the 'make it as difficult as possible so only the truly desperate try' solution favoured by the Home Office for at least 20 years.

    What else do we have?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,276
    darkage said:

    The thing about Matt Goodwin is that his predictions of populist revolt don't seem to come to pass.
    If there is another populist revolt on immigration, as was the case with Brexit, it is unlikely to change anything.
    The reality is that immigration will keep happening and it is better to look at how to manage it rather than stop it.
    The best argument against identity politics is that it doesn't help facilitate integration, it just creates division.
    The thing about revolts is, they don't happen till they do. At that point, people then say, "why couldn't they see what was coming?"
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,312
    Has @Sunil_Prasannan visited Marsh Barton Station yet?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,270
    IanB2 said:

    Experienced the Norwegian health service today, dropping in to their A&E because of a troublesome ear infection that hasn’t responded to over-the-counter stuff. My, was it impressive. More than anything it reminded me of the NHS we were supposed to be getting according to that Leave Campaign ad. More staff than patients, clean modern facilities, seen within ten minutes, blood test, doctor inspection, out within 45 minutes with a prescription, all for a £17 fee, the same that Norwegians pay, as my EHIC card hasn’t quite yet expired. Remarkable.

    Earlier I did another of Clarkson’s world’s best drives, over the Trollstigen, although it was so cloudy you could hardly see anything. But it was a fun drive.

    Since it’s grey and wet today, here’s a photo of a small lake from yesterday, dog for scale.


    Your dog always looks stuffed. How do we know it's not stuffed?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,243

    Agincourt Station and Crecy Square?
    Mers-el-Kébir station and to show off our global alliances, von Blücher Square.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,082
    darkage said:

    The thing about Matt Goodwin is that his predictions of populist revolt don't seem to come to pass.
    If there is another populist revolt on immigration, as was the case with Brexit, it is unlikely to change anything.
    The reality is that immigration will keep happening and it is better to look at how to manage it rather than stop it.
    The best argument against identity politics is that it doesn't help facilitate integration, it just creates division.
    Ultimately the UK can't stop hefty immigration because we can't make the economy work without it. There are too many bits of modern life, especially in the public sector of the economy, that don't work without immigration; certainly not at a price that the UK electorate is willing to pay.

    Given the carping about tax rises to pay for our existing social care system out of tax rises, heaven only knows what happens if you pushed the cost up by employing UK staff only.

    And the problem with the soft right, and I include myself in that, is that we've been too soft, and not strangled the hard right at birth. So now we are where we are.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,836

    Nothing can compete with cat pictures.
    I was shopping in town on Saturday and went into the library to clean up my emails and take some books back. Whilst I was sat at the terminal an elderly gentleman came in to do some research about something. After filling out some forms, he and the library assistant got to chatting. After some subjects of mutual incomprehension, they settled on talking about a website called "Cats that look like Hitler"

    We are truly damned.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,910
    Roger said:

    I saw some photos of a footballer of my acquaintance earlier today with a very scantily clad girl all over him. They were in Ibiza and seemed to be having fun. In Jessops world would this man be using his position and influence to get things he wouldn't otherwise get or is is it just a case of the birds and the bees and a nice celebration after winning the treble?
    "Jessops world" ?

    Without going into your footballer anecdote, if you think that abuse of position and influence is not an issue, then it explains many of your comments.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,231
    darkage said:

    The thing about Matt Goodwin is that his predictions of populist revolt don't seem to come to pass.
    If there is another populist revolt on immigration, as was the case with Brexit, it is unlikely to change anything.
    The reality is that immigration will keep happening and it is better to look at how to manage it rather than stop it.
    The best argument against identity politics is that it doesn't help facilitate integration, it just creates division.
    If immigration is essentially an economic phenomenon, then that could be reformulated as "more and more jobs will be created here", which seems like a much more tenuous prediction.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,910
    viewcode said:

    I was shopping in town on Saturday and went into the library to clean up my emails and take some books back. Whilst I was sat at the terminal an elderly gentleman came in to do some research about something. After filling out some forms, he and the library assistant got to chatting. After some subjects of mutual incomprehension, they settled on talking about a website called "Cats that look like Hitler"

    We are truly damned.
    Ah yes. Kitlers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,836
    viewcode said:

    Today on More4. A man is building a hose. The land cost 71k. The planned construction cost is £160k. A total of £231k. He is paying £50k from his savings. His parents have remortgaged their house for the remaining £180k and have given it to him for warm fuzzies.

    How much it will cost by the end? Will it even occur to him to pay his parents back? Will let you know at the end. :(

    [8:18pm] Joe's original plan of risking building a basement without reinforced wall fucked up, to nobody's surprise. The overspend - that's over what was originally planned - is somewhere between £30-110k to cover the cost of throwing concrete at a damp hole.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,557
    edited July 2023

    Telling those that deserve it from those that do not is nigh on impossible.

    So what to do?

    We seem to be going for the 'make it as difficult as possible so only the truly desperate try' solution favoured by the Home Office for at least 20 years.

    What else do we have?
    It is quite probable that many, who could claim asylum, actually enter the country as economic migrants.

    Getting legit working papers, if you have some kind of claim, is much easier and faster than claiming asylum.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,910
    viewcode said:

    [8:18pm] Joe's original plan of risking building a basement without reinforced wall fucked up, to nobody's surprise. The overspend - that's over what was originally planned - is somewhere between £30-110k to cover the cost of throwing concrete at a damp hole.
    I've probably mentioned this before, but my dad was in building and demolition, latterly specialisng in groundworks. He said you could never truly predict the cost of a project until it got out of the ground: there was always some embuggerance in foundations or services that ended up costing more than expected. Sometimes much more.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,243

    If immigration is essentially an economic phenomenon, then that could be reformulated as "more and more jobs will be created here", which seems like a much more tenuous prediction.
    It's not just a economic phenomenon.

    William Hague's nuanced piece talked about immigration happening because of other factors.

    According to latest UN forecasts, the population of Africa and the Middle East is set to grow by around 320 million by the end of this decade, and 1.17 billion by 2050. We should hope that those vast numbers of young, digitally connected people will prosper in strong economies and stable political systems.

    But it is only realistic to assume many will be driven by poverty, persecution and accelerating climate change to search for opportunity or safety elsewhere, particularly since they can research the countries that might provide that on their phones.

    If only one in twenty of the people of that region migrated by mid-century — surely a conservative estimate — there would be 140 million people on the move.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,546

    And let's be clear that Brexiteers have done an absolute shite job of convincing Millennials of the case of remaining outside the EU. They really cannot assume at all they'll become more Eurosceptic as they grow older.
    And millenials did an even worse job of convincing people we should stay in. Sorry it is not my job to persuade those that vote bnp that racism is a bad idea, nor is it my job to convince millenials the eu is a bad idea. If they wanted to be in the eu they had to convince the majority....it is not the majorities job to convince them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,426
    Stocky said:

    Your dog always looks stuffed. How do we know it's not stuffed?
    No!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,415
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, that's a glaring error on my part.

    But am I half remembering something - some way in which the French Revolution and Napoleonic era fed back into the development of the early US?

    Napoleon undoubtedly inspired the American adventurer Aaron Burr, who tried to found an empire in the western United States (what is now the midwest) but didn't get enough support.

    Also, the Americans tried to use the Napoleonic Wars to seize Canada in their disgraceful, aggressive and pointless war of 1812. We were preoccupied in Europe and they thought we wouldn't be able to resist. But they totally failed and their captial city got burned and their ports blockaded as a consequence. And they inspired Canadian nationalism, meaning that Canada would always be a separate country.

    About as successful as Vietnam, or Putin's invasion of Ukraine, really.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,836
    [8:25] Hey, he's using SIPS (structural insulated panels) for the above-ground bits. Suddenly I'm interested! Oh, and he's given up work to devote time to this middle-class Wendy House. God knows who's paying for his and his wife's food and shelter, as that bit is not mentioned: either she works or Daddy wrote a bigger cheque, you tell me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,231

    It's not just a economic phenomenon.

    William Hague's nuanced piece talked about immigration happening because of other factors.

    According to latest UN forecasts, the population of Africa and the Middle East is set to grow by around 320 million by the end of this decade, and 1.17 billion by 2050. We should hope that those vast numbers of young, digitally connected people will prosper in strong economies and stable political systems.

    But it is only realistic to assume many will be driven by poverty, persecution and accelerating climate change to search for opportunity or safety elsewhere, particularly since they can research the countries that might provide that on their phones.

    If only one in twenty of the people of that region migrated by mid-century — surely a conservative estimate — there would be 140 million people on the move.
    The global population will grow by less over the next 25 years than it did over the preceding 25, and nobody can move anywhere unless it is economically viable for them to do so.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,426
    Sean_F said:

    The thing about revolts is, they don't happen till they do. At that point, people then say, "why couldn't they see what was coming?"
    But what's coming is Keir Starmer and a dose of 'let's just stop the nonsense and get our heads down'.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited July 2023
    Sean_F said:

    The thing about revolts is, they don't happen till they do. At that point, people then say, "why couldn't they see what was coming?"
    Yeah ... but there comes a point, say after 50 years, that you can probably conclude that the moment has passed. I think this is true of immigration. If you look at the demographics of London, and the reduction of 'white British' between 2001 and 2021, something that has happened without any significant protest or revolt, then I think it is reasonable to conclude that it won't happen. Or if it happens it won't be effective at changing anything.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    boulay said:

    Would probably say that the US “revolution” was inspired by the Wars of the three Kingdoms and the writings of a lot of British thinkers and philosophers more than being French influence considering the French Crown tipped the balance in the Revolutionary war and it’s not unlikely that the US inspired the French Revolution rather than the other way round.
    Also the Declaration of Arbroath.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,836

    I've probably mentioned this before, but my dad was in building and demolition, latterly specialisng in groundworks. He said you could never truly predict the cost of a project until it got out of the ground: there was always some embuggerance in foundations or services that ended up costing more than expected. Sometimes much more.
    Agreed. If you want to make God laugh, show him your plans... :smiley:
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,546

    The global population will grow by less over the next 25 years than it did over the preceding 25, and nobody can move anywhere unless it is economically viable for them to do so.
    The estimates are about 1.2 billion fleeing climate change by 2050 a lot more than 140 million. I don't think european countries will accept anywhere near that number of immigrants which is why I expect fortress europe. We are already seeing the hardlines being drawn in europe not just the uk with current migrant flows with the eu selling migrants to libya for slave labour, greek navies doing dangerous towbacks and other reports that are of more dubious provenances that I cant confirm so wont mention
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Miklosvar said:

    Without him, what would we have called Waterloo station and Trafalgar Square, huh?
    Victoria Station and Victoria Square.
This discussion has been closed.