"Rioters dressed in all black drag a truck driver out of his vehicle and beat him.
Police have largely been unable to stabilize the situation in France, however the French Gov has held an emergency meeting today saying “all options” are on the table."
It will be remarkable if there aren't deaths tonight. Marseille looks especially bad
I wrote on here that there was a menacing atmosphere in quite a lot of places in Paris when I was there a few months ago, and was glad to get back to London.
Yes, the racial tension is much worse.
I've noticed this just at random times in the Metro. We may behind the French on all sorts of other indicators at the moment, but we're managing this much, much better.
Well, let's see what happens next time a Duggan incident happens.
We had one not that long along ago with the shooting of the guy ( Chris Kaba) who tried to ram the police (only found out weeks after the fact original report was the police just shot him)...we didn't get 4 days of national riots.
We did have the one evening of disturbance in one street in Wales over the kids on the ebike.
"Rioters dressed in all black drag a truck driver out of his vehicle and beat him.
Police have largely been unable to stabilize the situation in France, however the French Gov has held an emergency meeting today saying “all options” are on the table."
It will be remarkable if there aren't deaths tonight. Marseille looks especially bad
I wrote on here that there was a menacing atmosphere in quite a lot of places in Paris when I was there a few months ago, and was glad to get back to London.
Yes, the racial tension is much worse.
I've noticed this just at random times in the Metro. We may behind the French on all sorts of other indicators at the moment, but we're managing this much, much better.
Well, let's see what happens next time a Duggan incident happens.
There's certainly the potential for trouble here, too, but the difference in France is I think that constant low-level hum of antipathy that you feel there.
I don't feel that in Brixton, Peckham, Streatham or any similar areas of London, and I think it's because, as Malmesbury and others have mentioned, white and non-white are living in much closer proximity with each other, at least in London, Manchester and other major regional capitals.
"Rioters dressed in all black drag a truck driver out of his vehicle and beat him.
Police have largely been unable to stabilize the situation in France, however the French Gov has held an emergency meeting today saying “all options” are on the table."
It will be remarkable if there aren't deaths tonight. Marseille looks especially bad
I wrote on here that there was a menacing atmosphere in quite a lot of places in Paris when I was there a few months ago, and was glad to get back to London.
Yes, the racial tension is much worse.
I've noticed this just at random times in the Metro. We may behind the French on all sorts of other indicators at the moment, but we're managing this much, much better.
Well, let's see what happens next time a Duggan incident happens.
There's certainly the potential for trouble here, too, but the difference in France is I think that constant low-level hum of antipathy.
I don't feel in Brixton, Peckham, or any similar areas of London,
Nowhere in Britain feels as edgy or ominous as Seine St Denis - ie where the National Stadium is!
The weird thing is it would not surprise me at all if Marine Le Pen is elected as the next President of France - something that would have been unthinkable 10 or 20 yrs ago
The weird thing is it would not surprise me at all if Marine Le Pen is elected as the next President of France - something that would have been unthinkable 10 or 20 yrs ago
"Rioters dressed in all black drag a truck driver out of his vehicle and beat him.
Police have largely been unable to stabilize the situation in France, however the French Gov has held an emergency meeting today saying “all options” are on the table."
It will be remarkable if there aren't deaths tonight. Marseille looks especially bad
I wrote on here that there was a menacing atmosphere in quite a lot of places in Paris when I was there a few months ago, and was glad to get back to London.
Yes, the racial tension is much worse.
I've noticed this just at random times in the Metro. We may behind the French on all sorts of other indicators at the moment, but we're managing this much, much better.
Well, let's see what happens next time a Duggan incident happens.
There's certainly the potential for trouble here, too, but the difference in France is I think that constant low-level hum of antipathy.
I don't feel in Brixton, Peckham, or any similar areas of London,
Nowhere in Britain feels as edgy or ominous as Seine St Denis - ie where the National Stadium is!
Great location work, guys
Indeed. Even passing St Denis on the metro, whenever I've had to go from the Gare du Nord to the Gard De Lyon, for the train stops, feels tense.
One thing I will say for France, though, is that I've many times had a better-tasting burger served at the Gare de Lyon, by very cheerful, polite and professional minority kids, than I've ever had anywhere near London,. France could work better, and for more of its people, if it really wanted to, I think.
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
Some really quite horrifying imagery coming out of France
Macron will need to crack down hard, Marine Le Pen edges closer to victory, next time, with every burnt car, train, pharmacy, library, every injured priest and every shattered town
Le Pen is routinely overegged on this site, only thing that rivals how much HYUFD pushes ReFUK or whatever they're called now.
She is never getting anywhere other than significant loser in the second round. Thank goodness.
The most recent opinion polls for the next election put her on 56% in the second round if I recall correctly.
Odaxa had it Le Pen 54% Macron 46%, Elabe Le Pen 55% Macron 45% in April polls (albeit Macron cannot run for a third term under the French constitution so his party will have another candidate)
The weird thing is it would not surprise me at all if Marine Le Pen is elected as the next President of France - something that would have been unthinkable 10 or 20 yrs ago
The weird thing is it would not surprise me at all if Marine Le Pen is elected as the next President of France - something that would have been unthinkable 10 or 20 yrs ago
Meloni already elected in 2022. Trump again 2024, Le Pen 2027, Braverman or Badenoch 2028 or 29?
Unlikely but not impossible either
Con regain is the least likely. I mean I'm possibly *possibly* considering voting for them this time as I think Starmer's plan to cut north sea oil and gas new licenses isn't a good one, but they've hardly stopped the boats for a potential reform/Con switcher have they ?
The weird thing is it would not surprise me at all if Marine Le Pen is elected as the next President of France - something that would have been unthinkable 10 or 20 yrs ago
Meloni already elected in 2022. Trump again 2024, Le Pen 2027, Braverman or Badenoch 2028 or 29?
Unlikely but not impossible either
Con regain is the least likely. I mean I'm possibly *possibly* considering voting for them this time as I think Starmer's plan to cut north sea oil and gas new licenses isn't a good one, but they've hardly stopped the boats for a potential reform/Con switcher have they ?
Could be a Con and Farage Reform UK pact by then if Braverman or Badenoch were Tory leader, as Farage did a pact with Boris but wouldn't with May and won't with Sunak and Hunt
"Rioters dressed in all black drag a truck driver out of his vehicle and beat him.
Police have largely been unable to stabilize the situation in France, however the French Gov has held an emergency meeting today saying “all options” are on the table."
It will be remarkable if there aren't deaths tonight. Marseille looks especially bad
I wrote on here that there was a menacing atmosphere in quite a lot of places in Paris when I was there a few months ago, and was glad to get back to London.
Yes, the racial tension is much worse.
I've noticed this just at random times in the Metro. We may behind the French on all sorts of other indicators at the moment, but we're managing this much, much better.
Well, let's see what happens next time a Duggan incident happens.
We had one not that long along ago with the shooting of the guy ( Chris Kaba) who tried to ram the police (only found out weeks after the fact original report was the police just shot him)...we didn't get 4 days of national riots.
We did have the one evening of disturbance in one street in Wales over the kids on the ebike.
Namby-pamby riots in Cardiff, proper riots in France
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
I think during the pensions protests some people were a little disappointed contrasting how passively the British reacted to some pensions changes versus the French reaction.
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
Tbh even though Just Stop Oil, Extinction rebellion are annoying for stopping people getting to work or giving a break for the Australian batsmen there's no particular existential threat around them in the same way we had hinted at with the London riots a few years back. And I think those were on a much smaller scale than France is now experiencing with people in the affected communities asking what the hell was going on. There's a level of societal mistrust in areas such as St Denis that even the most up and coming areas of London don't really start to approach.
"Rioters dressed in all black drag a truck driver out of his vehicle and beat him.
Police have largely been unable to stabilize the situation in France, however the French Gov has held an emergency meeting today saying “all options” are on the table."
It will be remarkable if there aren't deaths tonight. Marseille looks especially bad
I wrote on here that there was a menacing atmosphere in quite a lot of places in Paris when I was there a few months ago, and was glad to get back to London.
Yes, the racial tension is much worse.
I've noticed this just at random times in the Metro. We may behind the French on all sorts of other indicators at the moment, but we're managing this much, much better.
Well, let's see what happens next time a Duggan incident happens.
We had one not that long along ago with the shooting of the guy ( Chris Kaba) who tried to ram the police (only found out weeks after the fact original report was the police just shot him)...we didn't get 4 days of national riots.
We did have the one evening of disturbance in one street in Wales over the kids on the ebike.
Namby-pamby riots in Cardiff, proper riots in France
The French have a very strange (to the English) attitude to protesting / rioting. Smashing stuff up / burning it down, ts all fair game & part of a protest up to a certain amount then well that too much.
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
I think during the pensions protests some people were a little disappointed contrasting how passively the British reacted to some pensions changes versus the French reaction.
We always disappoint revolutionaries.
As soon as the student fees protests became violent they were done. In France, that would have been just the start.
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
Tbh even though Just Stop Oil, Extinction rebellion are annoying for stopping people getting to work or giving a break for the Australian batsmen there's no particular existential threat around them in the same way we had hinted at with the London riots a few years back. And I think those were on a much smaller scale than France is now experiencing with people in the affected communities asking what the hell was going on. There's a level of societal mistrust in areas such as St Denis that even the most up and coming areas of London don't really start to approach.
XR are still being thrown in jail for that basically peaceful protest, though.
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
Tbh even though Just Stop Oil, Extinction rebellion are annoying for stopping people getting to work or giving a break for the Australian batsmen there's no particular existential threat around them in the same way we had hinted at with the London riots a few years back. And I think those were on a much smaller scale than France is now experiencing with people in the affected communities asking what the hell was going on. There's a level of societal mistrust in areas such as St Denis that even the most up and coming areas of London don't really start to approach.
The London riots were a function of the plod totally misjudged things & went super soft for a couple of days. Day two gangs from across London organised to take advantage. The the authorities belatedly stepped up & it was quashed.
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
I think during the pensions protests some people were a little disappointed contrasting how passively the British reacted to some pensions changes versus the French reaction.
We always disappoint revolutionaries.
As soon as the student fees protests became violent they were done. In France, that would have been just the start.
They are a revolutionary society, their national day remembers an enormous riot
We are an evolutionary society, we don't really have a national day, we have effete tea parties when the King turns 80 or whatever
Don't be distracted by French rioting as per. Sunak tanking is the thing. It is about as bad now as the worst times under Truss, both the polls and the fundamentals. To appoint (not elect) a good-time Charlie for stagflation times was an error.
"Rioters dressed in all black drag a truck driver out of his vehicle and beat him.
Police have largely been unable to stabilize the situation in France, however the French Gov has held an emergency meeting today saying “all options” are on the table."
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
Tbh even though Just Stop Oil, Extinction rebellion are annoying for stopping people getting to work or giving a break for the Australian batsmen there's no particular existential threat around them in the same way we had hinted at with the London riots a few years back. And I think those were on a much smaller scale than France is now experiencing with people in the affected communities asking what the hell was going on. There's a level of societal mistrust in areas such as St Denis that even the most up and coming areas of London don't really start to approach.
The London riots were a function of the plod totally misjudged things & went super soft for a couple of days. Day two gangs from across London organised to take advantage. The the authorities belatedly stepped up & it was quashed.
Totally different order of magnitude in France.
Yes, this French unrest is now vastly bigger and more menacing than the Plasma Screen riots of 2011. That was a bunch of kids trying to steal bikes and iPhones, a kind of social media fad. Nasty, scary, but not total anarchy
There is looting in France, too, but there are also wide and concerted attempts to burn down anything that symbolises the French state and French capitalism: libraries, banks, monuments, pharmacies, schools, courthouses, factories, supermarkets - even fields are being burned. Buses and trains are being torched, people are losing limbs and eyes, I am sure some will die if it continues
"Some of the rioters in France assert their dominance of the streets by firing their illegal automatic weapons in the air.
The French gangs are better armed today than ever, making the job of the riot police even more dangerous.
Don't be distracted by French rioting as per. Sunak tanking is the thing. It is about as bad now as the worst times under Truss, both the polls and the fundamentals. To appoint (not elect) a good-time Charlie for stagflation times was an error.
Not sure what your point is. What's French rioting got to do with Sunak?
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
We have serious riots every 30 years in the UK. 1981, 2011. Usually about one or two years after a Conservative government takes power from a Labour government. Is that just a coincidence?
Not pleased to see the far;right making hay with this on twitter.
Paul Golding of Britain First is attracting tons of views for his postings about "civil war", when, basically , he wants to import some of that sense of fear, from a different country, to this country.
"BBC Paris corespondent Hugh Schofield told @bbcworldservice that journalists were told to stay away from the riots or they would have their throats cut…
When pushed to explain further, Hugh replied, “one bearded man said to me, it’s because the Jews control the media”."
"It is truly horrifying to witness the Memorial to the Martyrs of the Deportation in Nanterre being vandalized.
This shameful act of disrespect for the memory of the victims of the Holocaust must be unequivocally condemned and those responsible held accountable."
"BBC Paris corespondent Hugh Schofield told @bbcworldservice that journalists were told to stay away from the riots or they would have their throats cut…
When pushed to explain further, Hugh replied, “one bearded man said to me, it’s because the Jews control the media”."
The euphemism "bearded man" here is disturbing in several ways.
"BBC Paris corespondent Hugh Schofield told @bbcworldservice that journalists were told to stay away from the riots or they would have their throats cut…
When pushed to explain further, Hugh replied, “one bearded man said to me, it’s because the Jews control the media”."
The euphemism "bearded man" here is disturbing in several ways.
Exactly: how do we know they really identify as a man?
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
Russians may have hacked NHS trust with 2.5 million patients Intelligence officials investigating potential cyber attack on Barts Health NHS Trust ... A notorious ransomware gang has claimed to have stolen huge quantities of sensitive data from Barts Health NHS Trust and given a deadline of Monday before it starts publishing the information. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/30/russia-may-have-hacked-nhs-trust-with-two-million-patients/ (£££)
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
"BBC Paris corespondent Hugh Schofield told @bbcworldservice that journalists were told to stay away from the riots or they would have their throats cut…
When pushed to explain further, Hugh replied, “one bearded man said to me, it’s because the Jews control the media”."
The euphemism "bearded man" here is disturbing in several ways.
Exactly: how do we know they really identify as a man?
Well, I was thinking of old timey racist Americans referring to jews as "Bearded New Yorkers", but you make a fair point. John Simpson, after all, identified as a lady whilst burka-wrapped.
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
Significantly worse than 2005. It’s all over small town France as well. Tiny shops in pleasant little towns in the Loire been looted and burned. Pointless violence. And more guns this time
For the first time in ages I've started reading LabourList and LeftFootForward again. Why? Because it looks very likely now that Starmer will be the next PM.
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
I think during the pensions protests some people were a little disappointed contrasting how passively the British reacted to some pensions changes versus the French reaction.
We always disappoint revolutionaries.
As soon as the student fees protests became violent they were done. In France, that would have been just the start.
They are a revolutionary society, their national day remembers an enormous riot
We are an evolutionary society, we don't really have a national day, we have effete tea parties when the King turns 80 or whatever
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
I am in France. The roads are well.maintained and flat without potholes inc the d and e roads. The roadsides are clean and well managed. It is a pleasure to drive on their roads. The road signs are clean and not obstructed by this years growth. England by comparison is a shit hole notwithstanding the riots currenty in the big cities in France.. There are police are stopping people even in the countryside but I as a tourist was waved through. Mind you ...gone are the Butcher the Baker and the Candlestick maker, all the little villages we drive through have nothing.
I am in France. The roads are well.maintained and flat without potholes inc the d and e roads. The roadsides are clean and well managed. It is a pleasure to drive on their roads. The road signs are clean and not obstructed by this years growth. England by comparison is a shit hole notwithstanding the riots currenty in the big cities in France.. There are police are stopping people even in the countryside but I as a tourist was waved through. Mind you ...gone are the Butcher the Baker and the Candlestick maker, all the little villages we drive through have nothing.
There aren't any potholes in my area in England, and when a couple developed last winter they were fixed pretty quickly.
The weird thing is it would not surprise me at all if Marine Le Pen is elected as the next President of France - something that would have been unthinkable 10 or 20 yrs ago
I feel an on-the-spot report from Roger is in order.
Apparently in Provence it's thought the rioters were led by a group from Hartlepool on a trip to convince them of just how wrong they were to vote for Brexit.
The difference in the UK is in recent hsitory when protest becomes violent in any way it loses any sort public support very quickly. BLM, anti-vax / lockdown, the eco-fascists, anti-student loans, anti-capitalist. All dropped off a cliff as soon as windows got smashed, police attacked etc.
Tbh even though Just Stop Oil, Extinction rebellion are annoying for stopping people getting to work or giving a break for the Australian batsmen there's no particular existential threat around them in the same way we had hinted at with the London riots a few years back. And I think those were on a much smaller scale than France is now experiencing with people in the affected communities asking what the hell was going on. There's a level of societal mistrust in areas such as St Denis that even the most up and coming areas of London don't really start to approach.
The London riots were a function of the plod totally misjudged things & went super soft for a couple of days. Day two gangs from across London organised to take advantage. The the authorities belatedly stepped up & it was quashed.
Totally different order of magnitude in France.
Yes, this French unrest is now vastly bigger and more menacing than the Plasma Screen riots of 2011. That was a bunch of kids trying to steal bikes and iPhones, a kind of social media fad. Nasty, scary, but not total anarchy
There is looting in France, too, but there are also wide and concerted attempts to burn down anything that symbolises the French state and French capitalism: libraries, banks, monuments, pharmacies, schools, courthouses, factories, supermarkets - even fields are being burned. Buses and trains are being torched, people are losing limbs and eyes, I am sure some will die if it continues
"Some of the rioters in France assert their dominance of the streets by firing their illegal automatic weapons in the air.
The French gangs are better armed today than ever, making the job of the riot police even more dangerous.
I feel an on-the-spot report from Roger is in order.
Apparently in Provence it's thought the rioters were led by a group from Hartlepool on a trip to convince them of just how wrong they were to vote for Brexit.
I'm just waiting for @Gardenwalker to pop up on here to tell us how this is all irrelevant and France is actually very successful, whilst Britain continues to be terminally doomed.
I am in France. The roads are well.maintained and flat without potholes inc the d and e roads. The roadsides are clean and well managed. It is a pleasure to drive on their roads. The road signs are clean and not obstructed by this years growth. England by comparison is a shit hole notwithstanding the riots currenty in the big cities in France.. There are police are stopping people even in the countryside but I as a tourist was waved through. Mind you ...gone are the Butcher the Baker and the Candlestick maker, all the little villages we drive through have nothing.
There aren't any potholes in my area in England, and when a couple developed last winter they were fixed pretty quickly.
Clearly an uneven situation since this is not the case in many places.
I feel an on-the-spot report from Roger is in order.
Apparently in Provence it's thought the rioters were led by a group from Hartlepool on a trip to convince them of just how wrong they were to vote for Brexit.
I'm just waiting for @Gardenwalker to pop up on here to tell us how this is all irrelevant and France is actually very successful, whilst Britain continues to be terminally doomed.
The Britain-is-a-sh*thole crowd amuse and annoy me. They're as bad as the Britain=is-always-brilliant crowd.
Neither are interested in the issues, or solutions.
The penalty of being able to choose the date of the election happens when you don't have a commanding lead.
This is because the media meme very quickly turns to 'Running Scared;' 'You're Frit;' 'Chicken' etc. It happened with Gordon Brown and it happened even more starkly with John Major who staved off the inevitable to the last possible moment and with a ridiculously lengthy election campaign.
This will be the first time for a long while that a sitting PM will have to choose the date whilst being so far behind in the polls.
The problem is that if the media get going with the Spring '24 idea, which would be the more conventional date, and Sunak tarries to the autumn, as I suspect he will have to, then it's going to compound the tory problems.
It's never good to look as if you are running scared from the electorate.
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
There was a review of a book in the Guardian the other day which looks interesting and frankly about time it was written about. The funny thing was that the greatest beneficiaries of reading the book would be the Guardian (and the BBC) and realising that the US race issues and “solutions” are vastly different to the UK and we need to stop conflating and importing.
Either way, they will soon be out. 12 months or 15 months ... the tories are getting the boot for a whole generation.
Bore off.
You often aren't a particularly pleasant person on here.
You have told us this is not the real you. That in life beyond you are nicer. So maybe it's time for you to hold a mirror up to yourself and step away for a bit?
In terms of the idea that I should go away because I, like Mike in the thread header to which I was responding, believe time is running out for Sunak ... is of course risible.
For 13 years many of us have watched the steady decline of this country under the Conservatives' mis-management. Their day of reckoning is approaching. The opinion polls aren't lying. I'm sorry if that is an inconvenient truth for you.
Your 1997 awaits. And I will be so very, very, happy.
In other, more felicitous, news from France … well actually the Basque country ... Le Tour begins today.
It’s a particularly mountainous route this year. Will it once again pit Tadej Pogačar against Jonas Vingegaard? If it’s anything like 2022 it could be another classic.
And will Mark Cavendish secure the stage record? There are rather fewer pancake flat sprinters’ stages this year but, as ever, all eyes on the first week.
This year's tour will of course be over-shadowed by the death of Gino Mäder. Anyone who watched Briton Tom Pidcock's astonishing descent on last year's tour will know the fine lines involved: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKib2B4JWMI
I'm steering clear of this from a betting pov. But I always enjoy following the race. ITV4 usually do a very good job.
Sunak should go for May, the longer he clings on, the worse it will be.
I just cannot see a route to recovery for the Conservatives. Sunak might be a reasonable PM in good times, but he's leading a party beset by infighting, he is having to deal with several significant issues facing the country, and he is having to constantly firefight issues rather than project a positive future image for the country.
Few of these issues are Sunak's direct fault, but he is having to deal with them. The only advantages he has are 1) he is PM, and 2) he has a significant majority, albeit one that is rapidly reducing, like Major's from '92.
This government is tired, fractious and out of ideas. I'm not a fan of Starmer, and think he'll be a poor PM, but Labour need the opportunity to bring their own brand of chaos to the country.
Sunak should go for May, the longer he clings on, the worse it will be.
The worse what will be for whom? For himself? If Rishi likes being Prime Minister, then he will likely want to prolong his tenure in Downing Street. For Britain? He is unlikely to believe Britain would be better off with a Labour government. For the Conservative Party? Well, maybe something will turn up.
Sunak should go for May, the longer he clings on, the worse it will be.
I just cannot see a route to recovery for the Conservatives. Sunak might be a reasonable PM in good times, but he's leading a party beset by infighting, he is having to deal with several significant issues facing the country, and he is having to constantly firefight issues rather than project a positive future image for the country.
Few of these issues are Sunak's direct fault, but he is having to deal with them. The only advantages he has are 1) he is PM, and 2) he has a significant majority, albeit one that is rapidly reducing, like Major's from '92.
This government is tired, fractious and out of ideas. I'm not a fan of Starmer, and think he'll be a poor PM, but Labour need the opportunity to bring their own brand of chaos to the country.
That the PM has a large majority, but appears to be doing nothing with it, is a significant part of the problem.
The impression given, watching from afar, is that there’s a lot he could be doing, but is choosing not to.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
Sunak should go for May, the longer he clings on, the worse it will be.
The worse what will be for whom? For himself? If Rishi likes being Prime Minister, then he will likely want to prolong his tenure in Downing Street. For Britain? He is unlikely to believe Britain would be better off with a Labour government. For the Conservative Party? Well, maybe something will turn up.
Which is why I think they may cling on all the way until January 2025.
Mind you, if they do, it could be a Kim Campbell style wipeout and they are destroyed as party.
Then there is the question about what happens when Labour, inevitably, can not cope with the scale of simultaneous crises on multiple fronts.
Might end up with a government of national unity I suppose. Led by the Lib Dems.
F1: a bet that's going to look very smart or pretty stupid with little in between: backed Perez at 14 each way (third the odds top 2) to 'win' sprint qualifying.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
Sunak should go for May, the longer he clings on, the worse it will be.
The worse what will be for whom? For himself? If Rishi likes being Prime Minister, then he will likely want to prolong his tenure in Downing Street. For Britain? He is unlikely to believe Britain would be better off with a Labour government. For the Conservative Party? Well, maybe something will turn up.
Which is why I think they may cling on all the way until January 2025.
Mind you, if they do, it could be a Kim Campbell style wipeout and they are destroyed as party.
Then there is the question about what happens when Labour, inevitably, can not cope with the scale of simultaneous crises on multiple fronts.
Might end up with a government of national unity I suppose. Led by the Lib Dems.
Good morning
I fully expect Starmer to be the next PM but little will change, and while a government of national unity would be good it might just be as likely as the IMF come in as they did in the 1976 labour financial crisis
The single most important event to alter all of this would be a quick and early end to Russian aggression in Ukraine and to return to it's original borders and a peace plan agreed by Ukraine
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
The same as in 2010. They're the government. Look at the polls from June/July 2009:
Of course, Scotland matters a lot so we need to pay as much if not more attention to Scottish polls. It's looking positive for Labour in Scotland, but I suspect they will swing back to the SNP as we approach the election (though that scenario is less tried and tested than swingback to the government).
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak should go for May, the longer he clings on, the worse it will be.
I just cannot see a route to recovery for the Conservatives. Sunak might be a reasonable PM in good times, but he's leading a party beset by infighting, he is having to deal with several significant issues facing the country, and he is having to constantly firefight issues rather than project a positive future image for the country.
Few of these issues are Sunak's direct fault, but he is having to deal with them. The only advantages he has are 1) he is PM, and 2) he has a significant majority, albeit one that is rapidly reducing, like Major's from '92.
This government is tired, fractious and out of ideas. I'm not a fan of Starmer, and think he'll be a poor PM, but Labour need the opportunity to bring their own brand of chaos to the country.
That the PM has a large majority, but appears to be doing nothing with it, is a significant part of the problem.
The impression given, watching from afar, is that there’s a lot he could be doing, but is choosing not to.
Politically there is very little he can do. The government is a coalition of wildly differing groups. What Edward Leigh wants is the polar opposite of what 30p Lee Anderson wants. Yes, winning the red wall delivered a big majority to Get Brexit Done. But that only cemented into place the lack of agreement as to the objectives of Brexit and now the wider objectives of the government.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
The same as in 2010. They're the government. Look at the polls from June/July 2009:
Of course, Scotland matters a lot so we need to pay as much if not more attention to Scottish polls. It's looking positive for Labour in Scotland, but I suspect they will swing back to the SNP as we approach the election (though that scenario is less tried and tested than swingback to the government).
Yes in summer 2009 the polls were all saying a Cameron landslide the following year, yet a year later it was a hung parliament even if Cameron still won most seats and became PM.
I still think even if Starmer likely becomes PM the gap will close significantly
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
Either way, they will soon be out. 12 months or 15 months ... the tories are getting the boot for a whole generation.
That's an SNP generation, which turns out to last a few days?
At least 10 years before the Tories are electable again IMO.
I expect little from a Starmer government, but that also means little to frighten people back to the Tories.
Depends on the economy, if inflation and interest rates remain high and strikes are frequent and taxes raised a Starmer government would soon become unpopular
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
The same as in 2010. They're the government. Look at the polls from June/July 2009:
Of course, Scotland matters a lot so we need to pay as much if not more attention to Scottish polls. It's looking positive for Labour in Scotland, but I suspect they will swing back to the SNP as we approach the election (though that scenario is less tried and tested than swingback to the government).
Yes in summer 2009 the polls were all saying a Cameron landslide the following year, yet a year later it was a hung parliament even if Cameron still won most seats and became PM.
I still think even if Starmer likely becomes PM the gap will close significantly
Yes it will. And if it is close the new, "fairer" boundaries favour the Conservatives substantially more than they did in 2010.
Sunak should go for May, the longer he clings on, the worse it will be.
The worse what will be for whom? For himself? If Rishi likes being Prime Minister, then he will likely want to prolong his tenure in Downing Street. For Britain? He is unlikely to believe Britain would be better off with a Labour government. For the Conservative Party? Well, maybe something will turn up.
Which is why I think they may cling on all the way until January 2025.
Mind you, if they do, it could be a Kim Campbell style wipeout and they are destroyed as party.
Then there is the question about what happens when Labour, inevitably, can not cope with the scale of simultaneous crises on multiple fronts.
Might end up with a government of national unity I suppose. Led by the Lib Dems.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
Yes, while I suspect Sunak of curry, Starmer was curry AND BEER!. Those questions need to be asked.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
I'm not sure that the Heil and GBeebies insisting the sky actually is green actually, and then HYUFD etc producing a poll showing that 27.9% actually of the Tory core vote actually agrees the sky is green actually will make a difference.
The reason the Tory vote continues to collapse is that normal punters have seen that the spin is a lie. They know the economy is in a mess and their community is decaying because they are living and experiencing it.
Sunak can claim that he has slain inflation and fixed the NHS and stopped the boats. But he won't have done, people will see and feel and experience the truth, and Boris! has reinforced the truth that the Tories lie and lie and lie.
I know that @Heathener winds some of the PB snowflakes up, but she is right - the game is up.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
I'm not sure that the Heil and GBeebies insisting the sky actually is green actually, and then HYUFD etc producing a poll showing that 27.9% actually of the Tory core vote actually agrees the sky is green actually will make a difference.
The reason the Tory vote continues to collapse is that normal punters have seen that the spin is a lie. They know the economy is in a mess and their community is decaying because they are living and experiencing it.
Sunak can claim that he has slain inflation and fixed the NHS and stopped the boats. But he won't have done, people will see and feel and experience the truth, and Boris! has reinforced the truth that the Tories lie and lie and lie.
I know that @Heathener winds some of the PB snowflakes up, but she is right - the game is up.
I hope you are right.
I remember 1992, and this has the aroma of 1992.
P.S. It's not just the usual suspects like GBeebies and the Mail. The blind panic at the BBC is ensuring balance like never before, like a Brexit only audience on QT and LauraK claiming "some charge", when Boris Johnson is accused of lying.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
I'm not sure that the Heil and GBeebies insisting the sky actually is green actually, and then HYUFD etc producing a poll showing that 27.9% actually of the Tory core vote actually agrees the sky is green actually will make a difference.
The reason the Tory vote continues to collapse is that normal punters have seen that the spin is a lie. They know the economy is in a mess and their community is decaying because they are living and experiencing it.
Sunak can claim that he has slain inflation and fixed the NHS and stopped the boats. But he won't have done, people will see and feel and experience the truth, and Boris! has reinforced the truth that the Tories lie and lie and lie.
I know that @Heathener winds some of the PB snowflakes up, but she is right - the game is up.
I hope you are right.
I remember 1992, and this has the aroma of 1992.
This really doesn’t have the aroma of 92 - the decline is obvious and the blame is being directed at Rishi and co.
Locally the former Conservative council is being called out weekly for the promises it made that are not covered in the budget.
And last year that former (conservative) council spent £170,000 on a fire works displayed that 10,000 attended - £17 a head is not a great use of money by anyone’s standards
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
I'm not sure that the Heil and GBeebies insisting the sky actually is green actually, and then HYUFD etc producing a poll showing that 27.9% actually of the Tory core vote actually agrees the sky is green actually will make a difference.
The reason the Tory vote continues to collapse is that normal punters have seen that the spin is a lie. They know the economy is in a mess and their community is decaying because they are living and experiencing it.
Sunak can claim that he has slain inflation and fixed the NHS and stopped the boats. But he won't have done, people will see and feel and experience the truth, and Boris! has reinforced the truth that the Tories lie and lie and lie.
I know that @Heathener winds some of the PB snowflakes up, but she is right - the game is up.
I hope you are right.
I remember 1992, and this has the aroma of 1992.
P.S. It's not just the usual suspects like GBeebies and the Mail. The blind panic at the BBC is ensuring balance like never before, like a Brexit only audience on QT and LauraK claiming "some charge", when Boris Johnson is accused of lying.
I disagree, I think 2015 was like 1992. This is more like 2010 in reverse.
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
Were there riots here after the George Floyd murder?
AfaIcs the BBC are currently frotting themselves into a seizure over the French riots.
Sunak should go for May, the longer he clings on, the worse it will be.
The worse what will be for whom? For himself? If Rishi likes being Prime Minister, then he will likely want to prolong his tenure in Downing Street. For Britain? He is unlikely to believe Britain would be better off with a Labour government. For the Conservative Party? Well, maybe something will turn up.
Which is why I think they may cling on all the way until January 2025.
Mind you, if they do, it could be a Kim Campbell style wipeout and they are destroyed as party.
Then there is the question about what happens when Labour, inevitably, can not cope with the scale of simultaneous crises on multiple fronts.
Might end up with a government of national unity I suppose. Led by the Lib Dems.
All nighter, was it?
I think the majority of non-Conservatives on PB dream of an inch perfect Davey administration. Now there's a PM in waiting to be proud of!
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
There was a review of a book in the Guardian the other day which looks interesting and frankly about time it was written about. The funny thing was that the greatest beneficiaries of reading the book would be the Guardian (and the BBC) and realising that the US race issues and “solutions” are vastly different to the UK and we need to stop conflating and importing.
Certainly there is a British Cultural cringe to the USA as the most powerful anglophone nation culturally, politically and militarily. Our mutant offspring has long overshadowed us.
The American experience of slavery as an essential part of its domestic economy was markedly different to ours of arms length slavery as part of an overseas empire, and indeed of a racialised empire in other lands, notably the Sub-continent.
Each country has its own history, and while there are parallels, there are major differences too. France for example officially ignores race, deliberately not recording data on ethnicity and religion in official statistics. To a degree this is a laudable goal of everyone being equal and equally French, but it does make it difficult to address the racial discrimination of the banlieues.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
Nonsense
Starmer and Reeves are very much taking advice from Blair and Brown and they are fully aware of the danger of crashing the money markets as per Truss and have already put their 28 billion pa spending on the back burners and have ruled out nationalising the water companies. Additionally they will not be able to concede excessive wage increases in the public sector and restraint will be required
However, this is not a labour offer that the labour left are happy with and that is evidenced on here by @BJO but it is the only way forward for labour to govern responsibly
Sunak is where he is because of his idiotic predecessors and will lose in 24 giving Starmer his opportunity, and whether he is better or worse than other PMs will only become apparent in time
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
TBF it is 100% nailed on that SKS can point to no record of achievement when it comes to redecorating no 10, or in populating it with commensal animals. Though a donkey in the garden, grazed in Green Park (?), would be nice.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
Could be, but I'm in the 'landslide' camp myself. Not a 97 but still a big 2 digit Labour majority.
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
Were there riots here after the George Floyd murder?
AfaIcs the BBC are currently frotting themselves into a seizure over the French riots.
Also: what happens on the French equivalent of PB quand on discourt au sujet de l'esclavage et les chasseurs d'éveillés s'excitent? An interesting test for cultural alignment to the USA. Asking for a friend.
I am in France. The roads are well.maintained and flat without potholes inc the d and e roads. The roadsides are clean and well managed. It is a pleasure to drive on their roads. The road signs are clean and not obstructed by this years growth. England by comparison is a shit hole notwithstanding the riots currenty in the big cities in France.. There are police are stopping people even in the countryside but I as a tourist was waved through. Mind you ...gone are the Butcher the Baker and the Candlestick maker, all the little villages we drive through have nothing.
There aren't any potholes in my area in England, and when a couple developed last winter they were fixed pretty quickly.
Clearly an uneven situation since this is not the case in many places.
A few cracks in the system but the big question is whether Labour can pave the way ahead?
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
Could be, but I'm in the 'landslide' camp myself. Not a 97 but still a big 2 digit Labour majority.
From the starting point of 2019 that isn't going to happen. I can predict with confidence anything from a 20 or so Tory majority to a Labour majority of around 2. In between may be most likely, but there isn't a Labour landslide in the offing.
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
There was a review of a book in the Guardian the other day which looks interesting and frankly about time it was written about. The funny thing was that the greatest beneficiaries of reading the book would be the Guardian (and the BBC) and realising that the US race issues and “solutions” are vastly different to the UK and we need to stop conflating and importing.
Certainly there is a British Cultural cringe to the USA as the most powerful anglophone nation culturally, politically and militarily. Our mutant offspring has long overshadowed us.
The American experience of slavery as an essential part of its domestic economy was markedly different to ours of arms length slavery as part of an overseas empire, and indeed of a racialised empire in other lands, notably the Sub-continent.
Each country has its own history, and while there are parallels, there are major differences too. France for example officially ignores race, deliberately not recording data on ethnicity and religion in official statistics. To a degree this is a laudable goal of everyone being equal and equally French, but it does make it difficult to address the racial discrimination of the banlieues.
The other issue with French policing is that the Gendarmerie isn’t a civilian force such as our police but a military force with policing duties so a very different culture to the police nationale so when they are involved in disturbances it’s a different game to the UK.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
I really don't think so.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
On paper Sunak will be able to claim all five of his pledges. Most were vague platitudes anyway. Inflation is out of his hands but it is falling fast in the Eurozone, so it will here.
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
Sunak will have dropped the pledges completely before we get to year end as they will have failed all 5 of them. Whats more, angry Tory MPs will claim that interviewers harping on about the 5 "people's priorities" are following a political bubble story rather than focusing on the people's priorities - which will be whatever guff they are trying to grift next time.
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
He can claim all five and the client journalists will back him up.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
TBF it is 100% nailed on that SKS can point to no record of achievement when it comes to redecorating no 10, or in populating it with commensal animals. Though a donkey in the garden, grazed in Green Park (?), would be nice.
I am in France. The roads are well.maintained and flat without potholes inc the d and e roads. The roadsides are clean and well managed. It is a pleasure to drive on their roads. The road signs are clean and not obstructed by this years growth. England by comparison is a shit hole notwithstanding the riots currenty in the big cities in France.. There are police are stopping people even in the countryside but I as a tourist was waved through. Mind you ...gone are the Butcher the Baker and the Candlestick maker, all the little villages we drive through have nothing.
There aren't any potholes in my area in England, and when a couple developed last winter they were fixed pretty quickly.
Clearly an uneven situation since this is not the case in many places.
A few cracks in the system but the big question is whether Labour can pave the way ahead?
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
Were there riots here after the George Floyd murder?
AfaIcs the BBC are currently frotting themselves into a seizure over the French riots.
There were protests, notably one in Bristol as I recall.
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
There was a review of a book in the Guardian the other day which looks interesting and frankly about time it was written about. The funny thing was that the greatest beneficiaries of reading the book would be the Guardian (and the BBC) and realising that the US race issues and “solutions” are vastly different to the UK and we need to stop conflating and importing.
Certainly there is a British Cultural cringe to the USA as the most powerful anglophone nation culturally, politically and militarily. Our mutant offspring has long overshadowed us.
The American experience of slavery as an essential part of its domestic economy was markedly different to ours of arms length slavery as part of an overseas empire, and indeed of a racialised empire in other lands, notably the Sub-continent.
Each country has its own history, and while there are parallels, there are major differences too. France for example officially ignores race, deliberately not recording data on ethnicity and religion in official statistics. To a degree this is a laudable goal of everyone being equal and equally French, but it does make it difficult to address the racial discrimination of the banlieues.
The police are, fairly openly, racist against poor non-white people.
The French approach to minorities has been, in effect, to segregate them into housing estates. Integration is very low - those who think that the U.K. is run by stale & pale should look at elite in France.
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
Were there riots here after the George Floyd murder?
AfaIcs the BBC are currently frotting themselves into a seizure over the French riots.
There were protests, notably one in Bristol as I recall.
The woke riots of Colston Square?
Has there been a post DeGaul French President who hasn't suffered at the hands of rioters.
I still think we're looking at a 2010 scenario and the question is, can Labour get over the line or will they have to govern with the consent of another party or parties?
Could be, but I'm in the 'landslide' camp myself. Not a 97 but still a big 2 digit Labour majority.
From the starting point of 2019 that isn't going to happen. I can predict with confidence anything from a 20 or so Tory majority to a Labour majority of around 2. In between may be most likely, but there isn't a Labour landslide in the offing.
In other words, 1964 result. Which led to a 1966 one. Although history never repeats it self exactly, and there really doesn’t look to be the same big beasts on the Labour front bench that there were in either 1964 or 1997.
And a very good morning to one and all. I’m sorry for those with tickets for Lords, but I hope it rains!
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
BBC journalists being threatened is awful.
I think it effectively shows our cultural alignment to the USA.
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
There was a review of a book in the Guardian the other day which looks interesting and frankly about time it was written about. The funny thing was that the greatest beneficiaries of reading the book would be the Guardian (and the BBC) and realising that the US race issues and “solutions” are vastly different to the UK and we need to stop conflating and importing.
Certainly there is a British Cultural cringe to the USA as the most powerful anglophone nation culturally, politically and militarily. Our mutant offspring has long overshadowed us.
The American experience of slavery as an essential part of its domestic economy was markedly different to ours of arms length slavery as part of an overseas empire, and indeed of a racialised empire in other lands, notably the Sub-continent.
Each country has its own history, and while there are parallels, there are major differences too. France for example officially ignores race, deliberately not recording data on ethnicity and religion in official statistics. To a degree this is a laudable goal of everyone being equal and equally French, but it does make it difficult to address the racial discrimination of the banlieues.
The police are, fairly openly, racist against poor non-white people.
The French approach to minorities has been, in effect, to segregate them into housing estates. Integration is very low - those who think that the U.K. is run by stale & pale should look at elite in France.
Indeed. In order to tackle racial and other injustices you have to acknowledge their existence. French policy is not to do so.
Comments
We did have the one evening of disturbance in one street in Wales over the kids on the ebike.
I don't feel that in Brixton, Peckham, Streatham or any similar areas of London, and I think it's because, as Malmesbury and others have mentioned, white and non-white are living in much closer proximity with each other, at least in London, Manchester and other major regional capitals.
Great location work, guys
@GoodwinMJ
The weird thing is it would not surprise me at all if Marine Le Pen is elected as the next President of France - something that would have been unthinkable 10 or 20 yrs ago
#FranceRiots
Almost feels inevitable tbh."
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1674878511889145856
Unlikely but not impossible either
One thing I will say for France, though, is that I've many times had a better-tasting burger served at the Gare de Lyon, by very cheerful, polite and professional minority kids, than I've ever had anywhere near London,. France could work better, and for more of its people, if it really wanted to, I think.
https://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/si-on-refaisait-voter-aujourdhui-les-francais-ils-eliraient-nettement-marine-le-pen/
https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/20230405_elabe_bfmtv_les-francais-et-le-climat-politique.pdf
We always disappoint revolutionaries.
In France that itself would cause more riots.
Totally different order of magnitude in France.
We are an evolutionary society, we don't really have a national day, we have effete tea parties when the King turns 80 or whatever
There are pros and cons with both approaches
There is looting in France, too, but there are also wide and concerted attempts to burn down anything that symbolises the French state and French capitalism: libraries, banks, monuments, pharmacies, schools, courthouses, factories, supermarkets - even fields are being burned. Buses and trains are being torched, people are losing limbs and eyes, I am sure some will die if it continues
"Some of the rioters in France assert their dominance of the streets by firing their illegal automatic weapons in the air.
The French gangs are better armed today than ever, making the job of the riot police even more dangerous.
Video from the city of Oyonnax"
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1674699112183132160?s=20
Paul Golding of Britain First is attracting tons of views for his postings about "civil war", when, basically , he wants to import some of that sense of fear, from a different country, to this country.
When pushed to explain further, Hugh replied, “one bearded man said to me, it’s because the Jews control the media”."
This shameful act of disrespect for the memory of the victims of the Holocaust must be unequivocally condemned and those responsible held accountable."
https://twitter.com/eurojewcong/status/1674498765707702295
The song was "Saturday Night's Alright For Fighting".
Libraries burnt, animals released from zoos, Jewish memorials desecrated.
Even a video of someone with an AK-47.
It looks possibly a bit worse than 2005, although less long so far, so I think Macron will probably have to declare that state of emergency that he wanted not to.
Intelligence officials investigating potential cyber attack on Barts Health NHS Trust
...
A notorious ransomware gang has claimed to have stolen huge quantities of sensitive data from Barts Health NHS Trust and given a deadline of Monday before it starts publishing the information.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/30/russia-may-have-hacked-nhs-trust-with-two-million-patients/ (£££)
And Zemmour and Le pen saying: told you so
This is essentially a French George Floyd. If it were mass American rioting over a police shooting the BBC would be all over it and there'd be copycat protests here inside 72 hours.
Because it's France we look, shrug and make jokes about the French, and carry on.
England by comparison is a shit hole notwithstanding the riots currenty in the big cities in France.. There are police are stopping people even in the countryside but I as a tourist was waved through.
Mind you ...gone are the Butcher the Baker and the Candlestick maker, all the little villages we drive through have nothing.
Hundreds of thousands of UK holidaymakers due to travel to country amid fears clashes spiralling out of control"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-travel-riot-violence-transport-b2367478.html
Neither are interested in the issues, or solutions.
This is because the media meme very quickly turns to 'Running Scared;' 'You're Frit;' 'Chicken' etc. It happened with Gordon Brown and it happened even more starkly with John Major who staved off the inevitable to the last possible moment and with a ridiculously lengthy election campaign.
This will be the first time for a long while that a sitting PM will have to choose the date whilst being so far behind in the polls.
The problem is that if the media get going with the Spring '24 idea, which would be the more conventional date, and Sunak tarries to the autumn, as I suspect he will have to, then it's going to compound the tory problems.
It's never good to look as if you are running scared from the electorate.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jun/26/this-is-not-america-by-tomiwa-owolade-review-why-black-lives-in-britain-matter
You have told us this is not the real you. That in life beyond you are nicer. So maybe it's time for you to hold a mirror up to yourself and step away for a bit?
In terms of the idea that I should go away because I, like Mike in the thread header to which I was responding, believe time is running out for Sunak ... is of course risible.
For 13 years many of us have watched the steady decline of this country under the Conservatives' mis-management. Their day of reckoning is approaching. The opinion polls aren't lying. I'm sorry if that is an inconvenient truth for you.
Your 1997 awaits. And I will be so very, very, happy.
It’s a particularly mountainous route this year. Will it once again pit Tadej Pogačar against Jonas Vingegaard? If it’s anything like 2022 it could be another classic.
And will Mark Cavendish secure the stage record? There are rather fewer pancake flat sprinters’ stages this year but, as ever, all eyes on the first week.
This year's tour will of course be over-shadowed by the death of Gino Mäder. Anyone who watched Briton Tom Pidcock's astonishing descent on last year's tour will know the fine lines involved: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKib2B4JWMI
I'm steering clear of this from a betting pov. But I always enjoy following the race. ITV4 usually do a very good job.
Have a nice day
xx
Few of these issues are Sunak's direct fault, but he is having to deal with them. The only advantages he has are 1) he is PM, and 2) he has a significant majority, albeit one that is rapidly reducing, like Major's from '92.
This government is tired, fractious and out of ideas. I'm not a fan of Starmer, and think he'll be a poor PM, but Labour need the opportunity to bring their own brand of chaos to the country.
I expect little from a Starmer government, but that also means little to frighten people back to the Tories.
Median lead at the end of June: 22
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-66070923
The impression given, watching from afar, is that there’s a lot he could be doing, but is choosing not to.
Mind you, if they do, it could be a Kim Campbell style wipeout and they are destroyed as party.
Then there is the question about what happens when Labour, inevitably, can not cope with the scale of simultaneous crises on multiple fronts.
Might end up with a government of national unity I suppose. Led by the Lib Dems.
Betting PostGood morning, everyone.
F1: a bet that's going to look very smart or pretty stupid with little in between: backed Perez at 14 each way (third the odds top 2) to 'win' sprint qualifying.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/07/austria-pre-sprint-idiocy-2023.html
In proper qualifying he couldn't get in a non-deleted Q2 lap but on pace he should've been on the front row, maybe even pole.
What is the way back for a divided government, led by a wet behind the ears management consultant that is heading for 0/5 on its own chosen pledges?
I fully expect Starmer to be the next PM but little will change, and while a government of national unity would be good it might just be as likely as the IMF come in as they did in the 1976 labour financial crisis
The single most important event to alter all of this would be a quick and early end to Russian aggression in Ukraine and to return to it's original borders and a peace plan agreed by Ukraine
Of course, Scotland matters a lot so we need to pay as much if not more attention to Scottish polls. It's looking positive for Labour in Scotland, but I suspect they will swing back to the SNP as we approach the election (though that scenario is less tried and tested than swingback to the government).
Will anyone feel any better from Sunak's "success"? No.
He will do better at the GE because his "it may be bad now, but it will be worse under Labour" will gain enough traction by election time. That is already the narrative promoted by anxious Conservatives on PB. Small Conservative majority.
I still think even if Starmer likely becomes PM the gap will close significantly
You can't campaign on "STOP THE BOATS" and claim success as record numbers pour across the channel. The others are well beyond even an attempt to claim achievement as well.
BigG. has this morning made the compelling case that Starmer is a worse PM than Sunak on the evidence he has to hand, so I can't see the Daily Mail deviating from that line.
The reason the Tory vote continues to collapse is that normal punters have seen that the spin is a lie. They know the economy is in a mess and their community is decaying because they are living and experiencing it.
Sunak can claim that he has slain inflation and fixed the NHS and stopped the boats. But he won't have done, people will see and feel and experience the truth, and Boris! has reinforced the truth that the Tories lie and lie and lie.
I know that @Heathener winds some of the PB snowflakes up, but she is right - the game is up.
I remember 1992, and this has the aroma of 1992.
P.S. It's not just the usual suspects like GBeebies and the Mail. The blind panic at the BBC is ensuring balance like never before, like a Brexit only audience on QT and LauraK claiming "some charge", when Boris Johnson is accused of lying.
Locally the former Conservative council is being called out weekly for the promises it made that are not covered in the budget.
And last year that former (conservative) council spent £170,000 on a fire works displayed that 10,000 attended - £17 a head is not a great use of money by anyone’s standards
AfaIcs the BBC are currently frotting themselves into a seizure over the French riots.
The American experience of slavery as an essential part of its domestic economy was markedly different to ours of arms length slavery as part of an overseas empire, and indeed of a racialised empire in other lands, notably the Sub-continent.
Each country has its own history, and while there are parallels, there are major differences too. France for example officially ignores race, deliberately not recording data on ethnicity and religion in official statistics. To a degree this is a laudable goal of everyone being equal and equally French, but it does make it difficult to address the racial discrimination of the banlieues.
French politics of policing in 3 films:
1) The Battle of Algiers (1966)
https://youtu.be/vhhoS3zOskE
2) La Haine (1995)
https://youtu.be/MjEVNWNhA1o
3) Les Miserables (2019)
https://youtu.be/YFfdlLW9Rwg
Starmer and Reeves are very much taking advice from Blair and Brown and they are fully aware of the danger of crashing the money markets as per Truss and have already put their 28 billion pa spending on the back burners and have ruled out nationalising the water companies. Additionally they will not be able to concede excessive wage increases in the public sector and restraint will be required
However, this is not a labour offer that the labour left are happy with and that is evidenced on here by @BJO but it is the only way forward for labour to govern responsibly
Sunak is where he is because of his idiotic predecessors and will lose in 24 giving Starmer his opportunity, and whether he is better or worse than other PMs will only become apparent in time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_massacre_of_1961
The police are, fairly openly, racist against poor non-white people.
The French approach to minorities has been, in effect, to segregate them into housing estates. Integration is very low - those who think that the U.K. is run by stale & pale should look at elite in France.
Has there been a post DeGaul French President who hasn't suffered at the hands of rioters.
Although history never repeats it self exactly, and there really doesn’t look to be the same big beasts on the Labour front bench that there were in either 1964 or 1997.
And a very good morning to one and all. I’m sorry for those with tickets for Lords, but I hope it rains!