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Will WH2024 really be a WH2020 re-run? – politicalbetting.com
Will WH2024 really be a WH2020 re-run? – politicalbetting.com
In 6 months time we will all be focused on the first primaries in the 2024 White House Race and currently of course the nominees look set to be Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
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There's obviously lots that can stop Trump. He's had the luck of the Devil so far, somehow surviving horrific self-inflicted wounds, but luck can be a fickle mistress.
Age is not of itself a bar, especially in the US where the work hard ethos is part of the American dream and I think @MikeSmithson is misreading the cultural differences.
In the US hard work is part of the American Dream. If you're fit and able you work on, and on. As I've posted before, there have been several nonagenarian elected Senators, and there are currently two serving senators who are over 89 years old. The oldest serving senator was Strom Thurmond who crossed the 100 mark whilst still in office. This is something unthinkable in the UK and alien to our culture where 'retirement' is the dream, as opposed to working hard and making your way until the end. For a fictional portrayal of this point, see Brian Cox's character in Succession.
Strom Thurmond was an extraordinary politician. He switched from Democrat to Republican. He conducted the longest ever single filibuster by a lone senator at 24 hours and 18 minutes in length. He was also a staunch opponent of civil rights legislation.
And guess who delivered the eulogy at both Strom Thurmond's funeral and burial plot? Yep ... one Joe Biden.
So I wouldn't bank any of your money on Joe standing down. If he remains sufficiently agile mentally and physically then he will erm ... run.
Not sure on Mr Biden and Mr Twump.
However Sub Brief (of Australian submarine fame) has a good shortish video looking at the design / construction of the Titan submarine, and its safety systems (possible lack of).
Al the passengers had to sign a blunt disclaimer 'yes I know I could die'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dka29FSZac
The interim study by the Electoral Commission also warned of “concerning” signs that voters with disabilities, people who are unemployed, or those from particular ethnic groups could be disproportionately affected by the policy.
It also said that 4% of people who did not vote said it was because of voter ID – a tally that could run into hundreds of thousands more.
If Trump drops out - or is rejected by the GOP - because of his criminal trials, which is beginning to seem quite likely to me, it doesn't make much difference to Biden getting the nomination.
Unseating a sitting President, unless there's a disaster either on the health or political front, is a huge task.
There are plenty of non loon (ie not RFK) contenders who've been quietly positioning themselves, but none seem very likely to run without that something happening to Biden.
A non Trump opponent in the general election might be a much harder task for Biden, of course.
Long serving Senators in the US upper house may stay there for a long time.
It is also the case here. In the UK upper house - the Lords - we have had plenty of people in their late 90s. The oldest current member is Lord Christopher, aged 98.
https://twitter.com/SenBlumenthal/status/1671858013412499458
US Senator, and former AG for Connecticut.
There's a huge difference between Senators and Lords in the UK second chamber. Unlike the HoL, US Senators are all elected for six years terms (there's no such thing as unelected or hereditary Senators) and they work hard: on average 70 hours a week. Lords here are unelected and don't even have to attend.
This is another classic example of Brits completely failing to understand the US Constitution.
From a betting point of view, don't bet on things you don't know much about.
Hurd enters the crowded presidential field as a major underdog.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/22/will-hurd-president-announcement-00103104
..The former congressman has been an outspoken critic of former President Donald Trump and said last month that a race between President Joe Biden and Trump would be a “rematch from hell.”
“Someone like me, right, a dark horse candidate, can pull this off,” Hurd, 45, told “CBS Mornings” Thursday. “One, you can’t be afraid of Donald Trump. Too many of these candidates in this race are afraid of Donald Trump. But we also have to articulate a different vision.”..
I strongly suspect that people who are resident in the UK and / or who have never studied US politics and the US constitution fare far worse with their political bets across the Atlantic than here.
Generally it's best to bet with knowledge of the market.
For instance, Mike is famously brilliant when it comes to betting on LibDem wins.
I've just had an absolutely lovely run. It was not too hot this morning, and mist was rising from the grass after the overnight rain. Scores of rabbits were gambolling about, and a deer nonchalantly looked up as I jogged past.
In these summer mornings, it is worth getting up early and going into the local countryside - or even a local park - just before and/or after dawn, to see nature at its freshest. One of life's free joys.
They are a thing of wonder by the way.
https://www.senate.gov/committees/
https://www.congress.gov/committees
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senate_committees
Just the chamber of the Lords has sitting hours of almost 8 hours a day in the most recent summarised session - 2021-2022, with a daily attendance of 367 (it says on the Parliament website), plus all the other things they have to do.
The Lords had a sitting until 4am on 8 June to try and sort out one of the dog's breakfasts - the Illegal Migration Bill - they had been sent by the Commons.
The chamber does not have the constitution responsibilities of the Senate, however I think you mischaracterise to an extent.
Against that, back home, many won on Brexit and Sindyref, as well as at by-elections and constituencies in general elections. Two reasons, perhaps. First, generously-donated spreadsheets, and second, a lot of political cleverclogs can't bet because they are simply too busy on election days, so the rest of us are betting against mug money.
The HoL is a very different entity.
My point is that Senators elected on six years terms, not plonked there for life, are accountable to the electorate and anyone who has even the slightest comprehension of US politics will know how full-bore, and often acrimonious, Senate elections are. Some of the Senate battles are truly mesmerising.
If you're a Senator you know you face the electorate every six years. If you try to drift you will be taken down. It's all part of the intrinsically hard work ethos of the States which is so alien to the UK.
As an aside, look at work and holidays. The average US worker gets just 14 days holiday a year.
I close with a great quote from Logan Roy in Succession whilst he was on these shores:
"I don’t like being out of the US too long. There’s a mercilessness I miss."
I had one of my most successful ever betting nights: on the Spreads betting against the market when people mis-read the Florida results as a sign Trump would be re-elected. In fact if you drilled into the sub-sets it was the Hispanic vote, not white suburbia. The latter were 'just' swinging to Biden, sufficiently so that I went big on that extending to the key swing states where the suburban vote would win or lose the election.
I won very big that night. Many lost.
There are such things as unelected senators in America.
https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm
It was also really bad optics: and will give Labour free rein to do similar when they get into power, if they wanted (I hope they don't...)
We are at 47.4% fossil fuels, and 20.6% renewables.
Given on windy days we can easily see these figures reversed, it's clear that a workable form of energy storage (preferably medium-term storage) is vital. Goodness knows what form that will be, though.
The former No 10 special adviser was included in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/charlotte-owen-linked-in-george-osbourne-boris-johnson-honours-list-566lbllj9 (£££)
Unless Ms Owen was nominated for her work for Osborne, which I doubt, this hardly matters. Give her ermine or abandon the system where outgoing PMs can put up whoever they like. She will be a breath of fresh air in the House of Lords among peers ennobled for services to writing cheques.
I also think Robert Kennedy Jnr will give Biden a fright in the Democratic primaries even if the President comes through in the end
He is really a **** of the ****** ***** who is bad for ***** and ***** and should just ***** and *******, the ****** ***** *****.
So this would be quite the event.
Titanic director James Cameron: 'OceanGate were warned'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65994707
So it sounds as the though the real reason they didn’t confirm the loss at once is they were waiting for an ROV to confirm it.
At least it acts as a deterrent against pushing through political legislation that doesn't really work.
I’m thinking the Royal Colleges (eg Nursing), trade bodies, unions, certain charities etc etc. If Sunak or Starmer said that is what they would do on departure it could (emphasis could) set a precedent successors would find hard to abandon.
A good one from Sub Brief looking at the submersible that imploded:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dka29FSZac
I'm not a big stake punter.
A significant difference is the amount of support staff behind US Senators. They can indeed phone it in for quite a while before it becomes disqualificatory, particularly in safe seats (though of course no one is entirely safe from primary challenge).
So if you're betting on Biden you should Bid (Bet) no more than N20 (20 Namibian Dollars).
Which is about 85 pence.
Few people are aware now, if they ever were, that "Covid" used to mean the illness caused in a few cases by a type of double pneumonia induced by the SARS variant SARSCoV2. ("NCIP" as it was called - "Novel Coronavirus-Induced Pneumonia"). But never mind. Most people were led to say things like they felt a bit Covidy if they had a cold. (F*cking drama-queen malingerers, basically.) Some even showed as SARSCoV2-positive because, after all, the said SARS variant WAS going around, even if it was harmless or almost harmless for a very large majority of those infected. So some with colds were positive, just as some without colds were positive. In most cases it should have been a case of so the f*ck what. Incidentally it's long been the case that many elderly patients catch pneumonia in hospitals. What a shocker.
If someone said they'd had Covid, I always asked them how long they'd had the pneumonia for. Sometimes it's just too much strain to suffer cretins gladly.
There's even more insane bullsh*t in this area than there is in woko-trans. We live in very sick times.
@Parody_PM
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2m
Seven years ago today we fooled over half the UK into voting for a pack of lies and impossible promises. Let's hope we can do the same at the next general election
The biggest unknown here is age / health. If one of them dies, or gets very ill, then sure - someone else will get the nomination. But the Dems don't have a clear successor to Biden, because as usual the Democratic Party has done no long term political planning, and the GOP have DeSantis - but he is viewed as more moderate than he is by the GE electorate, which will change the moment he opens his mouth and starts talking about Making America Florida or whatever bile he wants.
Trump' slogans are currently at the "KILLALLIMMIGRANTS" stage but are expected to be refined later in the cycle.
Though perhaps the Senate could be regarded as the senior body given its minimum age requirement of 30 years, as opposed to the House's 25.
I plan to look at possible non-Trump/Biden alternatives in future posts."
Agreed.
If Biden serves out his term without standing for re-election, it's obvious who he'll back: Kamala Harris. He won't back RFKJr. [1]
Harris is huge value at 46. [2]
And if Biden leaves office before the end of his term for some reason, Harris will run as the sitting president.
Notes
1) But RFKJr vs Trump would make for great theatre. And I wouldn't like to be in Anthony Fauci's shoes if that's the line-up.
2) What a shame Harris is such an a*sehole. Personally my favoured candidate for next president is Michelle Obama. Unlikely to happen, though.
Israel and Cyprus have held talks on the sale of Merkava tanks, Haaretz reports. If the deal is finalized, it will be the first sale of an Israeli tank to a European country. It is assumed that Nicosia plans to purchase new tanks to send its old Soviet T-80Us to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1672147477183762432
So in no sense are they coequal chambers. The US House and Senate are set up as such in Article 1 of the US Constitution.
Talking of which, this story seems to be getting a surprising amount of attention: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65976472.amp
The Scottish government has stopped the use of a chemical for controlling bracken and, indirectly ticks. The son of friends of ours lost 2 years of his life to Lymes disease, having to defer his University place. It is a deeply pernicious disease and he is still not fully over it.
Everything about it sounds horrific. The comparisons with NASA and Apollo 1 are well made. NASA's first question on everything is "and how does it fail?"
I note the noise detected by sonar buoys was never mentioned on the news whereas "banging" (Which must have been a red herring) was.
Were we just hearing hopeful wishcasting over the last week about this sub ? How many other areas does that extend to - the "experts" seemed all to be predicting lower inflation (Again hopeful wishcasting) and Ukraine is in the news far less when the counter offensive gets bogged down compared to any sort of breakthrough.
Now I know the news is quite grim at the moment but it needs to be reported accurately rather than attempting to put a positive spin on everything.
Known risks, but ignored because it worked fine the first few times.
1. Legislation should always be introduced first in the Lords, so that the Commons benefits from the input of the experts in the Lords
2. The Lords should lose its power of delay - new legislation should be considered expeditiously with timetanling, and if the Lords oppose something that should be purely advisory.
As an MP, I was well aware that there were plenty of subjects about which I knew nothing, and with almost daily votes on everything the choice was either a crash course of intensive study every day (no time), relying on a briefing from an NGO (perhaps biased) or trusting the party to have got it right (er...but that's the default that you end up with if the legislation isn't high-profile). An opinion/recommendation from respected exprerts in the Lords would have been useful.
Ticks aren't particularly specific to bracken, though - they're quite happy to use long grass, heather, and so on as we know ourselves (even though we never wear shorts on country walks, tuck in our socks, etc). The worst problem is the small instars (immature ones) which are difficult to spot. We have a couple of cheap plastic tick extractors stashed in our rucksacks.
eg https://www.tiso.com/s:tick/?search=tick
Entirely agree re Lyme disease aka borreliosis - the cocnentric rash is pretty diagnostic but unforetunately not always present.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/lyme-disease/
I think we overdo the ageism a bit in British politics. Speaking personally I'd be delighted to have another term and immodestly think I'd be better than some, but it's really unlikely to happen at age 73 so I'm not even trying. (Being CLP chair and on the Borough exec is a compromise.)
Anecdotally, when I was one of Corbyn's constituents and had half an hour with him talking about diverse topics, I said I wouldn't be a bad hard-working loyalist if he wanted to stick me in the Lords. He looked suitably nonplussed and we hastily moved on.
Where Kamala gets the nomination is if Biden fails to complete his term, or possibly by virtue of being the next-in-line if he drops out when it's too late for the primary voters to vote. Arguably in that situation he'd do her a favour by standing down before the election, so she gets the benefit of an inauguration bounce and potentially some incumbency.
So another example of Jeremy's poor judgment ?
I've had 3 ticks so far this year - and that's just walking round innocuous local nature reserves in the Flatlands - wearing long trousers and gaiters - and not just western Scotland where they've always been a pain.
Admittedly we tend to go off path through vegetation when surveying, but something has changed.
I don't think it is climate but is likely to be a big increase in deer population.
Did all that many people really think that all crew being already dead wasn't a fairly likely outcome? Indeed, it's something of a relief if (as it appears) they died very quickly rather than very slowly. I'm not sure "there are a few hours of oxygen left and we can't locate them" ever really qualified as "positive spin" as you put it.
This is like a major missing person search. Those involved need to treat it as if they are looking for a living person - that's practical, not delusional, because sometimes they are and you're more likely to find them in that case than if you're looking for a corpse. But we all know that often they're not.
Also, like, it's a good way to make sure your labour is cheap
Marianne Williamson loses second campaign manager in two months
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/20/marianne-williamson-campaign-manager-00102692
I like the "SubBrief" guy - I've cited him here before. He's rather scathing on the submarine that broke. I didn't realise how simple the sub interior is, like a tin can with very little bolted to the walls.
Nick was proposing that the Lords initiate legislation - a task for individual experts - but have no effective vote when it comes to passing it into law. So no contradiction at all, since Nick has expertise on particular subjects, on which he'd weigh in, but would have no effective vote on stuff he knew nothing about.
I don't know if I like his proposal, but it is at least consistent.
Tbf it seems to be SCons pushing this particular line. How many of them are farmers and/or landowners I couldn’t say.
Greene calls Boebert a ‘little b- – – -‘ as tensions boil over on House floor
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4062391-greene-calls-boebert-a-little-b-as-tensions-boil-over-on-house-floor/
And I can see why an ex-MP (especially 1 living in London) would love to be in the Lords (even ignoring the daily fees)...
Can people no longer think before opening their mouths online?
The guy who built the sub was one of the victims, he wouldn’t have been there if he thought it was unsafe. That said, deep-sea exploration is unfathomably (sic) dangerous, and they all knew there was a chance of catastrophic failure.