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Was Sunak’s no show in the vote a mistake? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Any idea how many overs are remaining?

    Or since by time someone reads this or replies the amount might change, what the total overs would be at the end?

    Green bowled by Robinson! 6 down.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    The Tories are more fucked than England

    Could Blue Wall voters see themselves voting tactically to keep a party they don't like from winning? (17-18 June)

    Yes 45% (-4)
    No 38% (+2)
    Don't know 17% (+2)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671187457533001730
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Breakthrough!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    The Tories are more fucked than England

    Could Blue Wall voters see themselves voting tactically to keep a party they don't like from winning? (17-18 June)

    Yes 45% (-4)
    No 38% (+2)
    Don't know 17% (+2)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671187457533001730

    Ok, I'm claiming that wicket.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    Labour leads by 7% in the Blue Wall, the largest lead for Labour in these seats since 26 March.

    Blue Wall VI (17-18 June):

    Labour 38% (+4)
    Conservative 31% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 22% (-4)
    Reform UK 5% (–)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 4 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671186150403489792

    Isn't that bad for Labour? @MoonRabbit's Dutch Salute theory depends on Labour taking the North Wall and the LD's the South. Or have I misunderstood?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385

    Any idea how many overs are remaining?

    Or since by time someone reads this or replies the amount might change, what the total overs would be at the end?

    Green bowled by Robinson! 6 down.

    32 left if the light holds.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385

    The Tories are more fucked than England

    Could Blue Wall voters see themselves voting tactically to keep a party they don't like from winning? (17-18 June)

    Yes 45% (-4)
    No 38% (+2)
    Don't know 17% (+2)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671187457533001730

    Ok, I'm claiming that wicket.
    Wrong one though. It's Khawaja we need and he looks immovable.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Hopefully this eventually means we get rid of shite columnists like Peter Hitchens and Sean Thomas.

    Germany’s Bild tabloid, the biggest-selling newspaper in Europe, is to replace a range of editorial jobs with artificial intelligence as part of a €100m costcutting programme expected to lead to hundreds of redundancies.

    The newspaper would “unfortunately be parting ways with colleagues who have tasks that in the digital world are performed by AI and/or automated processes”, its owner, Europe’s largest media publisher, Axel Springer SE, said in an email to staff.

    It said the roles of “editors, print production staff, subeditors, proofreaders and photo editors will no longer exist as they do today”, according to the email, seen by the rival Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper (FAZ).


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/20/german-tabloid-bild-to-replace-range-of-editorial-jobs-with-ai

    In other news, the Daily Mail has replaced its staff by using Artificial Stupidity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    The Tories are more fucked than England

    Could Blue Wall voters see themselves voting tactically to keep a party they don't like from winning? (17-18 June)

    Yes 45% (-4)
    No 38% (+2)
    Don't know 17% (+2)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671187457533001730

    Ok, I'm claiming that wicket.
    Get back on your throne now!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    viewcode said:

    Labour leads by 7% in the Blue Wall, the largest lead for Labour in these seats since 26 March.

    Blue Wall VI (17-18 June):

    Labour 38% (+4)
    Conservative 31% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 22% (-4)
    Reform UK 5% (–)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 4 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671186150403489792

    Isn't that bad for Labour? @MoonRabbit's Dutch Salute theory depends on Labour taking the North Wall and the LD's the South. Or have I misunderstood?
    I was thinking the same. The saluters appear to be lowering their tops again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385

    Hopefully this eventually means we get rid of shite columnists like Peter Hitchens and Sean Thomas.

    Germany’s Bild tabloid, the biggest-selling newspaper in Europe, is to replace a range of editorial jobs with artificial intelligence as part of a €100m costcutting programme expected to lead to hundreds of redundancies.

    The newspaper would “unfortunately be parting ways with colleagues who have tasks that in the digital world are performed by AI and/or automated processes”, its owner, Europe’s largest media publisher, Axel Springer SE, said in an email to staff.

    It said the roles of “editors, print production staff, subeditors, proofreaders and photo editors will no longer exist as they do today”, according to the email, seen by the rival Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper (FAZ).


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/20/german-tabloid-bild-to-replace-range-of-editorial-jobs-with-ai

    In other news, the Daily Mail has replaced its staff by using Artificial Stupidity.
    So the output will be much more intellectual from now on?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    viewcode said:
    That’s brilliant. Which presumably means 4 degrees above zero is someone straining but failing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    ydoethur said:

    Any idea how many overs are remaining?

    Or since by time someone reads this or replies the amount might change, what the total overs would be at the end?

    Green bowled by Robinson! 6 down.

    32 left if the light holds.
    Blimey, a draw's a possibility at this rate. Who'da thunk it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    viewcode said:

    I've spent the last 20 mins in the bathroom to try and induce a wicket. I did this in the 2005 Edgbaston test, my contribution to England's Ashes victory has been criminally neglected.

    I think "cigar" or "toilet otter" are other euphemisms, as I've never heard "wicket" used that way before. I find senna or - even better - apple juice works best, as for me it usually ends with a [that's enough - Ed].

    Bails surely?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    edited June 2023

    ydoethur said:

    Any idea how many overs are remaining?

    Or since by time someone reads this or replies the amount might change, what the total overs would be at the end?

    Green bowled by Robinson! 6 down.

    32 left if the light holds.
    Blimey, a draw's a possibility at this rate. Who'da thunk it?
    Unlikely unless Carey and Cummins are out quickly and Khawaja shuts up shop. As long as those two are there at under three an over they'll go for the win in the last 15.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Interesting article by Bill Barr on the latest Trump stuff. Mostly because he seems to be walking quite the different line to others in the GOP - you have the ones who say he has done nothing wrong and could not do anything wrong and even if he did it does not matter (the majority), then you have the never Trumps and those who turned against him after January 6th who are talking about how the documents case shows once again all the reasons he should never be president and what a terrible person he is. But Barr's position does appear more nuanced, in that he says there have been witchhunts against Trump, that the Hillary comparisons are fair, that the NY case is bogus...but that's not an excuse here.

    https://www.thefp.com/p/bill-barr-the-truth-about-the-trump

    But from the sounds of it the case will struggle to happen on time before the election anyway, given a very friendly Trump appointed judge who was slapped down before for very poor reasoning to help him out in the pre-indictment phase. Which is amusing since in another case Trump tried to get a Clinton appointed judge disqualified because the lawsuit involved Hillary, and that was bias (which it is not on its own, and so wouldn't be in this case either it seems).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Any idea how many overs are remaining?

    Or since by time someone reads this or replies the amount might change, what the total overs would be at the end?

    Green bowled by Robinson! 6 down.

    32 left if the light holds.
    Blimey, a draw's a possibility at this rate. Who'da thunk it?
    Unlikely unless Carey and Cummins are out quickly and Khawaja shuts up shop. As long as those two are there at under three an over they'll go for the win in the last 15.
    Keep going...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    ydoethur said:

    The Tories are more fucked than England

    Could Blue Wall voters see themselves voting tactically to keep a party they don't like from winning? (17-18 June)

    Yes 45% (-4)
    No 38% (+2)
    Don't know 17% (+2)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671187457533001730

    Ok, I'm claiming that wicket.
    Wrong one though. It's Khawaja we need and he looks immovable.
    Man of the match performance
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Any idea how many overs are remaining?

    Or since by time someone reads this or replies the amount might change, what the total overs would be at the end?

    Green bowled by Robinson! 6 down.

    32 left if the light holds.
    Blimey, a draw's a possibility at this rate. Who'da thunk it?
    Unlikely unless Carey and Cummins are out quickly and Khawaja shuts up shop. As long as those two are there at under three an over they'll go for the win in the last 15.
    Keep going...
    They had the chance with Carey, but no short leg.

    Doubt if we will get him now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Hopefully this eventually means we get rid of shite columnists like Peter Hitchens and Sean Thomas.

    Germany’s Bild tabloid, the biggest-selling newspaper in Europe, is to replace a range of editorial jobs with artificial intelligence as part of a €100m costcutting programme expected to lead to hundreds of redundancies.

    The newspaper would “unfortunately be parting ways with colleagues who have tasks that in the digital world are performed by AI and/or automated processes”, its owner, Europe’s largest media publisher, Axel Springer SE, said in an email to staff.

    It said the roles of “editors, print production staff, subeditors, proofreaders and photo editors will no longer exist as they do today”, according to the email, seen by the rival Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper (FAZ).


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/20/german-tabloid-bild-to-replace-range-of-editorial-jobs-with-ai

    Not sure why they say that 'unfortunately' they will be parting ways. If they regret doing it they could still keep a human doing it even though an AI can do it cheaper.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Tories are more fucked than England

    Could Blue Wall voters see themselves voting tactically to keep a party they don't like from winning? (17-18 June)

    Yes 45% (-4)
    No 38% (+2)
    Don't know 17% (+2)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671187457533001730

    Ok, I'm claiming that wicket.
    Wrong one though. It's Khawaja we need and he looks immovable.
    Man of the match performance
    He’s shown Bazball can be easily defeated. England are a busted flush. Unmitigated 1990s style disaster.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:
    That’s brilliant. Which presumably means 4 degrees above zero is someone straining but failing.
    @TSE, care to comment? :)

    [runs, hides under table]
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) shut down speculation about a potential primary challenge to President Biden in a recent interview, saying there is no chance he will launch a White House bid in 2024

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4058525-newsom-on-challenging-biden-in-primary-not-on-gods-green-earth/
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fuck me how do you block Dail Mail pop-ups and Notifications?

    I accidentally pressed allow, and now nothing will get rid of them. Like Japanese knotweed

    Also like Leon posts in PB of an afternoon.
    If you can tell me how to successfully get rid of Daily Mail Notifications I will promise not to comment for 72 hours. Serious offer. Driving me nuts
    But if you don’t post, we won’t know whether you have successfully blocked the Daily Mail or taken a hatchet to your computer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Saw online some rather interesting comments about remarks by the President of Ireland recently - I always thought he was meant to be a cuddly, uncontroversial sort of chap.

    A thread on the President of Ireland, Michael D Higgins, the Consultative Forum on International Security Policy. First the words used by the President…

    2. The pejorative language – the government is trying “to crawl away” from a policy position. Not healthy for a president to say that to the government/legislature.

    3. Empire: Ireland is in danger of putting itself “behind the shadows of previous empires within the EU”. This seems to imply that Ireland should not have close institutional security cooperation with France, for example, because it had an empire in the last century. Woah.

    https://twitter.com/Edward__Burke/status/1670906022171385858
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    kle4 said:

    Saw online some rather interesting comments about remarks by the President of Ireland recently - I always thought he was meant to be a cuddly, uncontroversial sort of chap.

    A thread on the President of Ireland, Michael D Higgins, the Consultative Forum on International Security Policy. First the words used by the President…

    2. The pejorative language – the government is trying “to crawl away” from a policy position. Not healthy for a president to say that to the government/legislature.

    3. Empire: Ireland is in danger of putting itself “behind the shadows of previous empires within the EU”. This seems to imply that Ireland should not have close institutional security cooperation with France, for example, because it had an empire in the last century. Woah.

    https://twitter.com/Edward__Burke/status/1670906022171385858

    Silly reason.

    You shouldn't have close security cooperation with the French or indeed the Germans because they will take the first opportunity to shaft you.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited June 2023

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    So apart from catastrophically bad financial regulation, an unchecked housing boom and bust, and a huge amount of poor value PFI to make UK government debt look better Gordon Brown was a pretty good Chancellor and later PM eh?

    You Brown fans are as nuts as the Tories defending Boris yesterday evening.

    You think Brown was boomier and buster in housing than Thatcher?

    Also Brown didn't introduce additional risk with his financial services regulation. He failed to address the systemic risk he inherited from his predecessors due to inadequate regulation.
    Undoubtedly. House prices rose 206% between 1997 and 2007.
    They also nearly doubled between 1982 and 1989 and then fell back much harder than 2007
    I'm talking about tripling, not doubling.
    Ah OK. Difference between nominal and real house prices.

    Point I'm making is not that Brown got this stuff right. It's that he did the same as everyone else, but for some reason people pick him out as uniquely catastrophic.
    What he did was uniquely catastrophic. Well apart from all Labour government's running out of money, that's not unique.

    Can you name any other government that oversaw house prices going from a 3x income multiple to a 7x income multiple in a few years?

    Can you name any other government that saw a budget surplus turned into a budget deficit of 3% in a few years before rather than after the next recession hits?
    The Blair and Brown governments didn't get everything right but despite facing the worst global financial crisis since WW2 they presided over lower and more stable inflation than we've seen before or since, combined with much lower unemployment than under Thatcher and Major and stronger economic growth than under the current Tory administration. Combine with real improvements in public services, real progress on poverty reduction and a historic peace deal in Northern Ireland and you can see why most fair minded observers would view it as a relatively successful period for the UK.
    "lower and more stable inflation" - unmitigated bullshit.

    So housing going from £60k in 1997 to £177k in 2010 was "low and stable inflation".

    Or do you mean low and stable inflation, if you exclude from inflation those costs that were going up?
    I mean inflation as it is usually defined - inflation in goods and services, not asset prices.
    Inflation in goods is just one type of inflation. Inflation in housing costs are another - and a pretty critical one for people who like to not be homeless.

    Unfortunately Gordon Brown decided to set only one type of inflation before all others in the Bank of England's remit, rather than a balanced overview, which resulted in unprecedentedly high runaway inflation in what wasn't getting monitored and controlled inflation on what we could import from China.

    A balanced policy would have looked at all types of inflation, not just one.
    You are being positively Trumpian with the invented "facts" that you use to try and justify you claims.

    We didn't get "unprecedently high runaway inflation" at any point under Brown, in fact we got the opposite. Your no-doubt preferred CPIH inflation measure (which includes owner-occupiers mortgage costs) was below 3% for the entire term 1997 to 2010 except for a temporary short-term blip lasting less than a year in the wake of the 2007-08 financial crisis. CPIH was under 2.5% for the majority of the 1997-2010 period and 2.4% when Labour left office. That is low and stable inflation, including housing costs.

    The reason that house purchase prices rose from £60k to £177k over that period was mainly because Brown succeeded in reducing interest rates over the term of the Labour government, even before the drastic cuts of 2008, so asset prices rose in response to falling costs of financing the loan to purchase the asset. Overall, the steep rise in house prices was not matched by such a steep rise in housing costs, as evidenced by the CPIH measure staying relatively low.
  • Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    The ex-PBer @SeanT on "AI and the end of Writing":


    "Putting on my pointy hat of pessimism, here’s how I think it will pan out. The machines will come for much academic work first – essays, PhDs, boring scholarly texts (unsurprisingly it can churn these out right now). Fanfic is instantly doomed, as are self-published novels. Next will be low-level journalism, copywriting, marketing, legalese, tech writing..."


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-is-the-end-of-writing/

    Rather embarrassingly, I feel I have the imagination of a writer but not the talent. Don't get me wrong, I like to indulge in it as a hobby but I'm never going to write anything narratively as a profession. So I thought I'd give ChatGPT a go and get it to write out a scene of a story idea I had. It was okay, it probably wrote with a greater clarity than I could, and it pulled together something pretty passable. So I get it to do another. Same result. In fact, it was too much the same. Essentially, ChatGPT kind of sucks at producing original, consistent, long-form narrative. As for a PhD thesis, it might do some of the wishy-washier Humanities but I can't see it managing the natural sciences.

    I think part of the reasons for this (or maybe I'm bad at wrangling the thing) is part of the limitations of the model. Ted Chiang wrote an excellent article about LLMs for the New Yorker.

    https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/chatgpt-is-a-blurry-jpeg-of-the-web
    A very good article, and an interesting analogy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    England are as doomed as Zanzibar on the morning of the 27th August 1896.

    The tea break can't come soon enough.
    Correct. Tea has come at a good time for England. We are still in it.
    If we don’t break this partnership quick sharp after the break we won’t be for long.
    Do we need to get Eagles to start commenting, on how Usman Khawaja is the best thing ever exported from Pakistan to Australia?
    I've spent the last 20 mins in the bathroom to try and induce a wicket.

    I did this in the 2005 Edgbaston test, my contribution to England's Ashes victory has been criminally neglected.
    Is that first sentence some sort of analogy?
    No, you degenerate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Is anyone offering odds on a tied match?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    viewcode said:

    Labour leads by 7% in the Blue Wall, the largest lead for Labour in these seats since 26 March.

    Blue Wall VI (17-18 June):

    Labour 38% (+4)
    Conservative 31% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 22% (-4)
    Reform UK 5% (–)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 4 June


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671186150403489792

    Isn't that bad for Labour? @MoonRabbit's Dutch Salute theory depends on Labour taking the North Wall and the LD's the South. Or have I misunderstood?
    Only three people have ever really understood the Dutch Salute business – the Prince Consort, who is dead – Moon Rabbit, who has gone mad – and I, who have forgotten all about it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    Khawaja just looks in no trouble at all, does he?

    Broad must be really cursing that no-ball he bowled him with.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    NEW THREAD

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    NEW THREAD
  • ydoethur said:

    The Tories are more fucked than England

    Could Blue Wall voters see themselves voting tactically to keep a party they don't like from winning? (17-18 June)

    Yes 45% (-4)
    No 38% (+2)
    Don't know 17% (+2)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1671187457533001730

    Ok, I'm claiming that wicket.
    Wrong one though. It's Khawaja we need and he looks immovable.
    STOOOOKEEEESSSS!!!!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    The ex-PBer @SeanT on "AI and the end of Writing":


    "Putting on my pointy hat of pessimism, here’s how I think it will pan out. The machines will come for much academic work first – essays, PhDs, boring scholarly texts (unsurprisingly it can churn these out right now). Fanfic is instantly doomed, as are self-published novels. Next will be low-level journalism, copywriting, marketing, legalese, tech writing..."


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-is-the-end-of-writing/

    Rather embarrassingly, I feel I have the imagination of a writer but not the talent. Don't get me wrong, I like to indulge in it as a hobby but I'm never going to write anything narratively as a profession. So I thought I'd give ChatGPT a go and get it to write out a scene of a story idea I had. It was okay, it probably wrote with a greater clarity than I could, and it pulled together something pretty passable. So I get it to do another. Same result. In fact, it was too much the same. Essentially, ChatGPT kind of sucks at producing original, consistent, long-form narrative. As for a PhD thesis, it might do some of the wishy-washier Humanities but I can't see it managing the natural sciences.

    I think part of the reasons for this (or maybe I'm bad at wrangling the thing) is part of the limitations of the model. Ted Chiang wrote an excellent article about LLMs for the New Yorker.

    https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/chatgpt-is-a-blurry-jpeg-of-the-web
    A very good article, and an interesting analogy.
    Yes I liked it too, thank you @Unpopular .
This discussion has been closed.