I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
I still don't understand why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab leak hypothesis.
Nor do I. It is a really weird mental syndrome. And most (not all) of the mad anti lab leakers seem to be on the left - here and elsewhere
Why this political division on a subject of basic science?! Is it Trump? Still? Really??
Is it coz "lab leak" is deemed racist? How is it less racist than saying it came from cruel Chinese with filthy eating habits guzzling bat soup in a squalid market?
One of the oddities of the age
So, lab leak...
Yes, it's possible, it's always been possible. But the reaction against it has been mostly a reaction against the loons who were certain about it in the face of a complete lack of evidence.
Person 1: it came from the lab! There's a fucking lab right there! Person 2: that's not evidence, other viruses have come from a animals on the wild.
Person 1 hears themselves saying they're open minded, not convinced, waiting for evidence Person 2 hears person 1 saying no way is it a lab leak (which, given the lack of evidence either way, would also be ridiculous)
I'm still open minded, as there's no compelling evidence either way. Natural source is possible, lab leak is possible. But I suspect you'll accuse me of being a lab leak denier
If it is a lab leak, I do think we'll probably get the proof some day. Someone knows or strongly suspects of that's the case. The not from the lab angle is harder/near impossible to prove, absent discovery of earliest infections far from the lab, which is of course great for the lab leak fans.
Even the ultimate wet marketeers - the guys who wrote the ludicrous Nature paper proximal origins - are now beginning to recant
“Influential Covid origin paper which dismissed China lab leak as conspiracy theory went 'too far', claims one of the researchers
By John Ely Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline Updated 16:11, 13 Jun 2023”
Not a good look for Sunak to miss the vote on Monday . That would look pretty spineless .
He *is* pretty spineless. He kept Braverman as Home Secretary.
I really don't like Braverman, but I rather liked Priti Patel.
They seem to be equally condemned, and in both cases rather blurrily.
Interested as to others thoughts.
Patel repeatedly broke the ministerial code. For which, if she hadn't been working for a government led by a liar and a criminal, she should have been sacked.
Braverman broke the actual law. For which she had to resign and yet was, unbelievably, recalled.
About the only thing I can think of to say in favour of either of them is that they are not quite so unpleasant and stupid as Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Random question: If a close member of your family was murdered would you within a couple of days want to be attending big public events and making speeches etc?
It's the last thing on earth I would want to do.
Several years ago my Uncle died in hospital after being hit by a car when crossing the road. The police came and had a long meeting with me and my mother (we were next of kin). I was astonished that one question on their checklist was "Would this be of interest to the media? Do we need to contact the media?"
It was as if they thought it was their job to feed stuff to the media.
I appreciate that what happened in Nottingham is much higher profile but the same principles apply.
As cyclefree notes its impossible to be sure how we would react, in the moment, and there's even a ritualistic element to such a thing, and rituals by their nature can provide comfort.
I have said to family in jest before that if I ever suffer a tragic event which makes the news to not say a damn thing and don't share any photos of me, and not only because there are very few good ones.
I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
I still don't understand why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab leak hypothesis.
I an not offended by it as a Hypothesis, just someone pretending that it is proven.
I don't know the origin of covid, and it may well be that no-one knows. I suspect that we will never know for sure as it is not a neutral subject, and vested interests are not objective in how they look at evidence.
There is an accumulating amount of evidence that suggests plausibility to the lab leak theory for sure. Where I draw the line is the idea that it’s somehow been proven, or 99% so. At the start of the pandemic there was every reason to believe a natural origin, as virtually every other pandemic has had natural origins. Unless there is evidence of bubonic plague coming out of some mad alchemists lab out east? People will now say, ah, but the WIV is right there as if that’s the slam dunk. Yet MERS, SARS and the rest all started somewhere that wasn’t a lab.
We don’t know for sure. We probably never will be certain. And that’s a scientific stand point, not a hack travel reporter.
Lol. You’ve been adamantly pro wet market from the start, and you’ve had to be dragged like an angry toddler to some reluctant acceptance that maybe - just maybe - just possibly maybe - it came from the lab. Pitiful
Speaking of travel hacks, I see that ex PBer @Seant pretty much nailed the truth way back in early 2021: it came from the lab - and was confident enough to write it and publish it rather than make squeaking noises on an anonymous website
Not a good look for Sunak to miss the vote on Monday . That would look pretty spineless .
He *is* pretty spineless. He kept Braverman as Home Secretary.
I really don't like Braverman, but I rather liked Priti Patel.
They seem to be equally condemned, and in both cases rather blurrily.
Interested as to others thoughts.
Patel much brighter but also more Machiavellian than Braverman. There will inevitably be elements of misogony, racism and invalid objections that someone of their backgrounds should not hold the views they do, but both mostly disliked as they are aggressively pushing positions beyond the middle of even conservative voters without any effort to take the rest of the country with them, and are/were Home Secretaries, which is always a tough gig.
I wish the media would stop perpetuating this myth that Johnson was some super vote winner.
Beating a toxic Corbyn and unhinged Livingstone was hardly climbing Mount Everest .
Thing is, beating Corbyn in 2019 was easier than in 2017. But Johnson probably also was a vote winner. As people repeatedly say, he often fools people at the start, until the scales fall from the eyes. It’s time up for Johnson as the so many scales have fallen from eyes we’ll be shovelling scales until the next election…
Random question: If a close member of your family was murdered would you within a couple of days want to be attending big public events and making speeches etc?
It's the last thing on earth I would want to do.
Several years ago my Uncle died in hospital after being hit by a car when crossing the road. The police came and had a long meeting with me and my mother (we were next of kin). I was astonished that one question on their checklist was "Would this be of interest to the media? Do we need to contact the media?"
It was as if they thought it was their job to feed stuff to the media.
I appreciate that what happened in Nottingham is much higher profile but the same principles apply.
A few years ago I was told by a senior City of London detective that one of the things which ensured faster promotion was getting their cases into the media. So yes some do think it's their job. It was the bit in the Leveson Inquiry which got canned and should not have been. The press got stick for some of the stories they published but no-one inquired closely into who was feeding them these stories. See for instance the landlord in that awful Bristol murder. The police should have been disciplined over what they did to him.
As for Nottingham, I simply cannot imagine the pain they must be going through. Maybe being with the other families and seeing how much their children were valued helps in some way. I don't think of us can know how we might react. In the aftermath of any death I think many are in a sort of shock and doing something - anything - helps. Hence the rituals that have built up. A vigil is a sort of ritual. And saying someone's name helps keep the person real somehow. Maybe.
I only pray that the families can get through this and find some comfort.
I can't talk about attending big public events but as a reporter on a local paper I had to interview bereaved families. I dreaded doing it and I expected people to tell me to piss off (it happened once). But I was surprised how welcoming families were. They wanted to talk about the deceased and they were keen to help me put together a tribute.
Having said that, I'm glad those days are behind me.
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
There are 352 Tory MPs. Just seven have publicly indicated they‘ll come to Boris’s aid by voting against the partygate report.
I almost wonder whether part of the reason for just how hysterical Boris's reaction has been, including quitting beforehand, has been purely to help the narrative for when the report eventually got voted on (as it had to be, whether he quit or not).
He has more people than 7 who like him in the Commons, and probably some more who don't like him but don't like the Standards process as well, and I genuinely think had he stuck to his guns and gotten a moderate sanction (albeit one sufficient to trigger a recall petition, which is what the Committee indicated they would do without setting a total amount of days) that he could have caused a very awkward situation for Rishi, with s reasonable number voting against the sanction.
But since there would have been enough to pass it, perhaps he decided going scorched earth a) helped his portrayal of the sanciton being vindictive, since the severity increased due to his reaction, and he is not even in the House anymore, b) aided a narrative that he has more support than it appears, because he can suggest MPs did not vote against the sanction because it was pointless as he'd already gone, so they were not going along with the nonsense.
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
I still don't understand why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab leak hypothesis.
I an not offended by it as a Hypothesis, just someone pretending that it is proven.
I don't know the origin of covid, and it may well be that no-one knows. I suspect that we will never know for sure as it is not a neutral subject, and vested interests are not objective in how they look at evidence.
There is an accumulating amount of evidence that suggests plausibility to the lab leak theory for sure. Where I draw the line is the idea that it’s somehow been proven, or 99% so. At the start of the pandemic there was every reason to believe a natural origin, as virtually every other pandemic has had natural origins. Unless there is evidence of bubonic plague coming out of some mad alchemists lab out east? People will now say, ah, but the WIV is right there as if that’s the slam dunk. Yet MERS, SARS and the rest all started somewhere that wasn’t a lab.
We don’t know for sure. We probably never will be certain. And that’s a scientific stand point, not a hack travel reporter.
Lol. You’ve been adamantly pro wet market from the start, and you’ve had to be dragged like an angry toddler to some reluctant acceptance that maybe - just maybe - just possibly maybe - it came from the lab. Pitiful
Speaking of travel hacks, I see that ex PBer @Seant pretty much nailed the truth way back in early 2021: it came from the lab - and was confident enough to write it and publish it rather than make squeaking noises on an anonymous website
I wish the media would stop perpetuating this myth that Johnson was some super vote winner.
Beating a toxic Corbyn and unhinged Livingstone was hardly climbing Mount Everest .
When Boris Johnson was leader of the Conservatives they won their largest election victory, in 2019, since 1987. It's true that he was fortunate in the circumstances and his opponent, but so was Theresa May, and look what happened to her?
Ken Livingstone might be a widely discredited figure now, but when he was defeated by Boris Johnson (the first time) he was the two-time election winner in London who, the first time, had won as an independent in an election system designed to crush the chances of any candidate outside the big two parties.
I find the obsession some people have with trying to argue that Boris Johnson didn't have some special appeal to the electorate that transcended that of any of his contemporaries really bizarre. I might not have liked it, but it was definitely there, and I can only hope that it has now passed, and stays passed.
Not a good look for Sunak to miss the vote on Monday . That would look pretty spineless .
He *is* pretty spineless. He kept Braverman as Home Secretary.
I really don't like Braverman, but I rather liked Priti Patel.
They seem to be equally condemned, and in both cases rather blurrily.
Interested as to others thoughts.
Patel repeatedly broke the ministerial code. For which, if she hadn't been working for a government led by a liar and a criminal, she should have been sacked.
Braverman broke the actual law. For which she had to resign and yet was, unbelievably, recalled.
About the only thing I can think of to say in favour of either of them is that they are not quite so unpleasant and stupid as Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
People around the world have different perceptions of extreme. I loved living in Auckland but found their clothing in winter hilarious, wrapped up like a Brit would for -10 deg C when it was actually +10 deg C.
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
Next they will be mocking us for thinking a former leader getting told off for lying is in anyway serious.....
I know they face far more of a threat to their positions which explains it for many of them, but GOP members of Congress must be astonished at the idea legislators should...stand up to their own leader?!
And this in a country where they have not had a party leader like we do.
I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
I still don't understand why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab leak hypothesis.
I an not offended by it as a Hypothesis, just someone pretending that it is proven.
I don't know the origin of covid, and it may well be that no-one knows. I suspect that we will never know for sure as it is not a neutral subject, and vested interests are not objective in how they look at evidence.
There is an accumulating amount of evidence that suggests plausibility to the lab leak theory for sure. Where I draw the line is the idea that it’s somehow been proven, or 99% so. At the start of the pandemic there was every reason to believe a natural origin, as virtually every other pandemic has had natural origins. Unless there is evidence of bubonic plague coming out of some mad alchemists lab out east? People will now say, ah, but the WIV is right there as if that’s the slam dunk. Yet MERS, SARS and the rest all started somewhere that wasn’t a lab.
We don’t know for sure. We probably never will be certain. And that’s a scientific stand point, not a hack travel reporter.
Lol. You’ve been adamantly pro wet market from the start, and you’ve had to be dragged like an angry toddler to some reluctant acceptance that maybe - just maybe - just possibly maybe - it came from the lab. Pitiful
Speaking of travel hacks, I see that ex PBer @Seant pretty much nailed the truth way back in early 2021: it came from the lab - and was confident enough to write it and publish it rather than make squeaking noises on an anonymous website
Or as I would characterise it, change my opinions on learning new facts…
Also I have nothing to embarrassed about.*
*Well that’s almost certainly a lie…
You’ve admitted you’re a scientist and you are emotionally allergic to the idea it came from the lab. Your opinion is largely worthless, therefore
I’m really not allergic to the idea. It’s looking more likely now. But scientists understand about doubt and are cautious about those who profess certainty.
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
Yebbut Coldplay are shite, like.
They really aren't
Viva La Vida is one of the most stirring pop songs of the 21st century. It is impossible to listen to it without thinking Oooh, yeah, as you clock those brilliant opening bars
They've written three or four other classic songs, as well. Along with lots of crud, for sure
But that is three or four classics more than most pop music acts
OK my lunchtime trolling in the By the By Coffeeshop, in Staunton Virginia, is done, and I am disturbingly attracted to a Milfy blonde sat right down next to me, and to avoid looking at her legs and being labelled a sick, ageing British perv I am going to get in my car and drive to Monticello
Later!
Parachutes: decent A Rush of Blood the the Head: excellent Visa La Vida: decent
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
I strongly suspect the US government knew from the start it almost certainly came from the lab, but they conspired to keep it quiet because
1. The US funded some of the GOF research
2. They didn’t want to help Trump who was loudly talking about “Wuhan flu”
3. They had a lot of terrified scientists saying “if we admit that we’ve killed millions of people we will get lynched and science will finish”
So they got lab leak literally banned as a subject matter, for a year, on Twitter and Facebook
I think it's pretty clear that covid came from a lab-leak in China. The Times article the other day was the clearest reasoning I've read. It matters only that if its true the Chinese need to go to town on all of the details.
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
No, not that Trump is way ahead and the no hopwers are splitting the anti-Trump vote, that's expected and his opponents are just hoping he will be convicted and force him out (fat chance).
But for once it's an american poll where it shows the difference since the last one, not the gap between first and second.
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
Yeah, well they can fuck off with their cheese and their “deli meats” and the fact they are all 90 stone
Why don’t they sweat some of the lard off in their “proper” heatwaves?
No lingering goodwill to them following your recent trips?
I’m teasing them coz I like them. Generous kind and often funny. Hospitable. Good people. America is full of good people (I’m still out here and happy to be so)
Jesus they are fat tho. If you think, say, Margate or Mansfield are bad for lard-arses, do a roadtrip across the mid West
Thanks to @Cyclefree for yet another thought-provoking piece.
One of Johnson's greatest failings, in my view, was his determination to take proper accounting and scrutiny from Parliament and keep it with Ministers - HIS Ministers, Ministers who would serve at his discretion and whim. Too much has gone from Westminster to Whitehall and to the Cabinet table.
Depressingly, but not surprisingly given their track record, Labour are showing no interest in rolling any of this back but will simply enjoy the freedom from scrutiny, accountability and control which Boris Johnson and a pliant Party will provide. As we've seen with the right to protest, the only party more adept at authoritarianism than the Conservatives is Labour.
@Cyclefree may claim there is no requirement for constitutional change - I disagree. I believe there's a huge requirement for power to be returned from the Executive to the Legislature and for a rapid and comprehensive decentralisation and devolution of powers and responsibilities from Westminster to the directly elected local authorities which currently exist.
I'm ok with the right sort of constitutional change but without the necessary cultural change it will mean little. I certainly think there needs to be a rolling back of powers seized by the Executive but I don't really see Labour doing this. There is an authoritarian streak within Labour and Starmer I think is not the one to push back against it. He will enable it I suspect.
That's why I've never supported either Labour or the Conservatives. Both have an authoritarian streak a mile long and both are inherent centralisers. Johnson is the latest manifestation of that desire to keep the power unto himself - he was the same as Mayor of London.
As for Starmer, he is obviously terrified of looking "weak" in front of the Mail but it may also be he enjoys the power as well.
I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
I still don't understand why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab leak hypothesis.
I an not offended by it as a Hypothesis, just someone pretending that it is proven.
I don't know the origin of covid, and it may well be that no-one knows. I suspect that we will never know for sure as it is not a neutral subject, and vested interests are not objective in how they look at evidence.
There is an accumulating amount of evidence that suggests plausibility to the lab leak theory for sure. Where I draw the line is the idea that it’s somehow been proven, or 99% so. At the start of the pandemic there was every reason to believe a natural origin, as virtually every other pandemic has had natural origins. Unless there is evidence of bubonic plague coming out of some mad alchemists lab out east? People will now say, ah, but the WIV is right there as if that’s the slam dunk. Yet MERS, SARS and the rest all started somewhere that wasn’t a lab.
We don’t know for sure. We probably never will be certain. And that’s a scientific stand point, not a hack travel reporter.
Lol. You’ve been adamantly pro wet market from the start, and you’ve had to be dragged like an angry toddler to some reluctant acceptance that maybe - just maybe - just possibly maybe - it came from the lab. Pitiful
Speaking of travel hacks, I see that ex PBer @Seant pretty much nailed the truth way back in early 2021: it came from the lab - and was confident enough to write it and publish it rather than make squeaking noises on an anonymous website
Or as I would characterise it, change my opinions on learning new facts…
Also I have nothing to embarrassed about.*
*Well that’s almost certainly a lie…
You’ve admitted you’re a scientist and you are emotionally allergic to the idea it came from the lab. Your opinion is largely worthless, therefore
I’m really not allergic to the idea. It’s looking more likely now. But scientists understand about doubt and are cautious about those who profess certainty.
I will actually cut you some slack on this. If dildo knapping somehow produced a virus which killed 20 million people I’d be desperate to believe it came from any other source, rather than my profession - even if the circumstantial evidence alone was emphatic and damning
The people at the centre of the conspiracy - Daszak, Horton, Fauci, etc - do need to see the interior of a courtroom however
Thanks to @Cyclefree for yet another thought-provoking piece.
One of Johnson's greatest failings, in my view, was his determination to take proper accounting and scrutiny from Parliament and keep it with Ministers - HIS Ministers, Ministers who would serve at his discretion and whim. Too much has gone from Westminster to Whitehall and to the Cabinet table.
Depressingly, but not surprisingly given their track record, Labour are showing no interest in rolling any of this back but will simply enjoy the freedom from scrutiny, accountability and control which Boris Johnson and a pliant Party will provide. As we've seen with the right to protest, the only party more adept at authoritarianism than the Conservatives is Labour.
@Cyclefree may claim there is no requirement for constitutional change - I disagree. I believe there's a huge requirement for power to be returned from the Executive to the Legislature and for a rapid and comprehensive decentralisation and devolution of powers and responsibilities from Westminster to the directly elected local authorities which currently exist.
I'm ok with the right sort of constitutional change but without the necessary cultural change it will mean little. I certainly think there needs to be a rolling back of powers seized by the Executive but I don't really see Labour doing this. There is an authoritarian streak within Labour and Starmer I think is not the one to push back against it. He will enable it I suspect.
That's why I've never supported either Labour or the Conservatives. Both have an authoritarian streak a mile long and both are inherent centralisers. Johnson is the latest manifestation of that desire to keep the power unto himself - he was the same as Mayor of London.
As for Starmer, he is obviously terrified of looking "weak" in front of the Mail but it may also be he enjoys the power as well.
The strange look that Starmer has generally could be described as 'terrified'. It's very odd. I guess just shyness.
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
People around the world have different perceptions of extreme. I loved living in Auckland but found their clothing in winter hilarious, wrapped up like a Brit would for -10 deg C when it was actually +10 deg C.
Indeed - one New Year's Eve, Mrs Stodge and I were in Rancho Mirage (as you do) in Southern California. We took breakfast outside (it was about 21c) in t-shirts and jeans and were thoroughly enjoying ourselves. I became aware not only were we alone on the terrace but the waiters were looking at us.
Eventually, a local came out in his full coat and sat outside complaining how cold it was.
Can anyone remember the 1997 Uxbridge by-election a couple of months after the general election? The Tory MP just held on by 700 votes at the GE but died a few days later, Sir Michael Shersby. Labour thought they would win it but in fact the Tory majority went up to around 4,000. The Labour candidate was the current MP for Hammersmith, Andy Slaughter.
On Trump's ongoing issues, I do like this clip. Not because its from anti Trump conservatives and Bill Barr seems to have assigned himself as the most vocal of the former Trump officials who liberals hate but who is not mincing his words about the indictment, but because even the very brief interjection of the Fox host suggests to me they are really struggling with how they are supposed to play this.
We know from the Dominion case that Fox is paranoid about upsetting its base, it is a business after all, and that telling the base what it does not want to hear hurts that business, and we know the base don't want to hear that there is a case against Trump and he might actually have done something wrong. So despite Barr's position at least being pretty unequivocal about the right to have the documents almost being a sideshow - the bigger issue being obstruction to a subpoena, and if he'd just complied there'd be no charge on holding the docs - you can smell the desperation as the host tries to push a line that he was President when he left with the docs, so that's ok?
How does the network play it, by being a little more frank about genuine threats to the big man, without upsetting the fans?
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
I strongly suspect the US government knew from the start it almost certainly came from the lab, but they conspired to keep it quiet because
1. The US funded some of the GOF research
2. They didn’t want to help Trump who was loudly talking about “Wuhan flu”
3. They had a lot of terrified scientists saying “if we admit that we’ve killed millions of people we will get lynched and science will finish”
So they got lab leak literally banned as a subject matter, for a year, on Twitter and Facebook
Now that, if true, is evidence. Lab leak, smoking gun.
Has anyone other than the mail picked that up? Only I've been reading the mail last couple of days and it's full of crap, so if like to see a more reputable source.
Can anyone remember the 1997 Uxbridge by-election a couple of months after the general election? The Tory MP just held on by 700 votes at the GE but died a few days later, Sir Michael Shersby. Labour thought they would win it but in fact the Tory majority went up to around 4,000. The Labour candidate was the current MP for Hammersmith, Andy Slaughter.
Can anyone remember the 1997 Uxbridge by-election a couple of months after the general election? The Tory MP just held on by 700 votes at the GE but died a few days later, Sir Michael Shersby. Labour thought they would win it but in fact the Tory majority went up to around 4,000. The Labour candidate was the current MP for Hammersmith, Andy Slaughter.
If that happened today I assume the Leader of the (new) Opposition would be claiming it showed the public had changed their minds and the government with a 200 majority had lost its mandate.
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Did you also read that despite 80% of Indians being Hindus only 36% voted for the BJP?
My bad - was 37%
Ah no sweat - just read it twice (because you posted it twice), so was teasing. Indian politics are really very interesting though. It's a horror show, but an interesting one.
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
There are a lot of Hindus in East Ham - are you going to argue the Conservatives will win the Wall End by-election on July 13th?
Anecdotally, the best Conservative performance of late in Newham came from a Sikh candidate in a local by-election. The local Conservative Hindus are mostly young business men with all the political awareness of a small gnat. As an aside, they are all men - they will speak to other men but refused to talk to Mrs Stodge when she answered the door to them.
Not really. Wafer thin Conservative majority in 2017 but after 2019 Telford requires a 13% swing for a Labour gain, so that's far from a foregone conclusion. But without the benefit of an incumbent MP, that result is also more likely now.
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
I strongly suspect the US government knew from the start it almost certainly came from the lab, but they conspired to keep it quiet because
1. The US funded some of the GOF research
2. They didn’t want to help Trump who was loudly talking about “Wuhan flu”
3. They had a lot of terrified scientists saying “if we admit that we’ve killed millions of people we will get lynched and science will finish”
So they got lab leak literally banned as a subject matter, for a year, on Twitter and Facebook
You just know this won't be published in the Guardian or the Independent. Because tribalism.
Eventually reality will embarrass them into it.
If the reporting on the US intelligence is accurate then it seems a lab leak moves from possible to more likely than any other explanation.
I wonder how long they have had that intelligence? Did they know from the start or was it only uncovered more recently? It’s surprising that Trump didn’t order it to be made public if it was known earlier, unless it was deliberately kept from him.
Can anyone remember the 1997 Uxbridge by-election a couple of months after the general election? The Tory MP just held on by 700 votes at the GE but died a few days later, Sir Michael Shersby. Labour thought they would win it but in fact the Tory majority went up to around 4,000. The Labour candidate was the current MP for Hammersmith, Andy Slaughter.
So why did the Tories hold on? Labour complacency and hubris picking a central London councillor (not unlike the Labour candidate now) while the Conservatives picked a popular local furniture store director and local Association Chairman and ran an old fashioned campaign door to door.
Random question: If a close member of your family was murdered would you within a couple of days want to be attending big public events and making speeches etc?
It's the last thing on earth I would want to do.
Several years ago my Uncle died in hospital after being hit by a car when crossing the road. The police came and had a long meeting with me and my mother (we were next of kin). I was astonished that one question on their checklist was "Would this be of interest to the media? Do we need to contact the media?"
It was as if they thought it was their job to feed stuff to the media.
I appreciate that what happened in Nottingham is much higher profile but the same principles apply.
A few years ago I was told by a senior City of London detective that one of the things which ensured faster promotion was getting their cases into the media. So yes some do think it's their job. It was the bit in the Leveson Inquiry which got canned and should not have been. The press got stick for some of the stories they published but no-one inquired closely into who was feeding them these stories. See for instance the landlord in that awful Bristol murder. The police should have been disciplined over what they did to him.
As for Nottingham, I simply cannot imagine the pain they must be going through. Maybe being with the other families and seeing how much their children were valued helps in some way. I don't think of us can know how we might react. In the aftermath of any death I think many are in a sort of shock and doing something - anything - helps. Hence the rituals that have built up. A vigil is a sort of ritual. And saying someone's name helps keep the person real somehow. Maybe.
I only pray that the families can get through this and find some comfort.
Yes, I would agree with all that. However my fear, reinforced by what the police said to me, is that there is pressure to get involved with the media. And many will feel they have to do what the police "suggest".
If the relatives don't want any media contact they should be able to say: "We will not be speaking or making any statement to anybody about anything, nor will we be issuing photos or anything else. Thank you."
And that should be it. If anybody does approach then tell them to go away and if they don't call the police and report them for harassment.
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
I strongly suspect the US government knew from the start it almost certainly came from the lab, but they conspired to keep it quiet because
1. The US funded some of the GOF research
2. They didn’t want to help Trump who was loudly talking about “Wuhan flu”
3. They had a lot of terrified scientists saying “if we admit that we’ve killed millions of people we will get lynched and science will finish”
So they got lab leak literally banned as a subject matter, for a year, on Twitter and Facebook
Now that, if true, is evidence. Lab leak, smoking gun.
Has anyone other than the mail picked that up? Only I've been reading the mail last couple of days and it's full of crap, so if like to see a more reputable source.
FPT, your convo about "...2 countries of which one European are on the verge of buying a total of more then 200 Merkave mk2 and mk3 tanks from Israeli storage...https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1669360854641278978 ...I wonder where these will be going...?"
May I point you to a rather fine past article in which the author pointed out that the Poles were on a spending spree which included all the tanks?
So it's either Poland or, given that Merkavas are heavy and difficult to deploy outside their country (a problem that isn't a problem for Israel, whose planning horizons don't include oceans), possibly Ukraine? They'd be a good fit: rear entrance, good in built-up areas, has own toilet so can poo inside. Plus don't they have active defence, Iron Whatever for tanks? Good for fighting drones.
In the 80s there were all sorts of local authorities gambling vast sums. Hammersmith and Fulham was the prime villain. They actually employed people to trade the markets.
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
What about Hayes and Harlington, next door to Uxbridge? West London outer suburb, mostly in Hillingdon, parts of it adjacent to Heathrow. Held by John McDonnell MP since 1997. Is Uxbridge that different?
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
What about Hayes and Harlington, next door to Uxbridge? West London outer suburb, mostly in Hillingdon, parts of it adjacent to Heathrow. Held by John McDonnell MP since 1997. Is Uxbridge that different?
Very much so, McDonnell's seat voted 56% for Corbyn in 2019, Uxbridge voted 53% for Boris
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
What about Hayes and Harlington, next door to Uxbridge? West London outer suburb, mostly in Hillingdon, parts of it adjacent to Heathrow. Held by John McDonnell MP since 1997. Is Uxbridge that different?
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
I strongly suspect the US government knew from the start it almost certainly came from the lab, but they conspired to keep it quiet because
1. The US funded some of the GOF research
2. They didn’t want to help Trump who was loudly talking about “Wuhan flu”
3. They had a lot of terrified scientists saying “if we admit that we’ve killed millions of people we will get lynched and science will finish”
So they got lab leak literally banned as a subject matter, for a year, on Twitter and Facebook
You just know this won't be published in the Guardian or the Independent. Because tribalism.
Eventually reality will embarrass them into it.
If the reporting on the US intelligence is accurate then it seems a lab leak moves from possible to more likely than any other explanation.
I wonder how long they have had that intelligence? Did they know from the start or was it only uncovered more recently? It’s surprising that Trump didn’t order it to be made public if it was known earlier, unless it was deliberately kept from him.
If you follow the timelines it is near-certain American intel knew it 98% came from the lab from about Feb 20. They decided to close the debate down for the reasons I’ve given. Notice how - as soon as Trump lost - lab leak came back into “respectability” and Facebook and Twitter lifted their bans
Heck, maybe Trump was such a threat their conspiracy was justified 🤷♂️
I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
I still don't understand why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab leak hypothesis.
Nor do I. It is a really weird mental syndrome. And most (not all) of the mad anti lab leakers seem to be on the left - here and elsewhere
Why this political division on a subject of basic science?! Is it Trump? Still? Really??
Is it coz "lab leak" is deemed racist? How is it less racist than saying it came from cruel Chinese with filthy eating habits guzzling bat soup in a squalid market?
One of the oddities of the age
So, lab leak...
Yes, it's possible, it's always been possible. But the reaction against it has been mostly a reaction against the loons who were certain about it in the face of a complete lack of evidence.
Person 1: it came from the lab! There's a fucking lab right there! Person 2: that's not evidence, other viruses have come from a animals on the wild.
Person 1 hears themselves saying they're open minded, not convinced, waiting for evidence Person 2 hears person 1 saying no way is it a lab leak (which, given the lack of evidence either way, would also be ridiculous)
I'm still open minded, as there's no compelling evidence either way. Natural source is possible, lab leak is possible. But I suspect you'll accuse me of being a lab leak denier
If it is a lab leak, I do think we'll probably get the proof some day. Someone knows or strongly suspects of that's the case. The not from the lab angle is harder/near impossible to prove, absent discovery of earliest infections far from the lab, which is of course great for the lab leak fans.
Even the ultimate wet marketeers - the guys who wrote the ludicrous Nature paper proximal origins - are now beginning to recant
“Influential Covid origin paper which dismissed China lab leak as conspiracy theory went 'too far', claims one of the researchers
By John Ely Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline Updated 16:11, 13 Jun 2023”
It’s over. It came from the lab. But you’ll never admit it because you’re too embarrassed
I still remember one of the earliest things about all this shit was overhearing two biomed professors talking and laughing saying something like "Ha! Yeah! Wouldn't surprise me! That Wuhan lab is a total shit-show! Hahahahaa...."
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
There are a lot of Hindus in East Ham - are you going to argue the Conservatives will win the Wall End by-election on July 13th?
Anecdotally, the best Conservative performance of late in Newham came from a Sikh candidate in a local by-election. The local Conservative Hindus are mostly young business men with all the political awareness of a small gnat. As an aside, they are all men - they will speak to other men but refused to talk to Mrs Stodge when she answered the door to them.
No but I do expect a swing to the Tories in the Wall End by election
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
What about Hayes and Harlington, next door to Uxbridge? West London outer suburb, mostly in Hillingdon, parts of it adjacent to Heathrow. Held by John McDonnell MP since 1997. Is Uxbridge that different?
Very much so, McDonnell's seat voted 56% for Corbyn in 2019, Uxbridge voted 53% for Boris
Well yes, I know that. My query was more about what makes the two neighbouring constituencies so different in their voting patterns.
FPT, your convo about "...2 countries of which one European are on the verge of buying a total of more then 200 Merkave mk2 and mk3 tanks from Israeli storage...https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1669360854641278978 ...I wonder where these will be going...?"
May I point you to a rather fine past article in which the author pointed out that the Poles were on a spending spree which included all the tanks?
So it's either Poland or, given that Merkavas are heavy and difficult to deploy outside their country (a problem that isn't a problem for Israel, whose planning horizons don't include oceans), possibly Ukraine? They'd be a good fit: rear entrance, good in built-up areas, has own toilet so can poo inside. Plus don't they have active defence, Iron Whatever for tanks? Good for fighting drones.
They are buying Korean - and are getting a manufacturing deal - so seems slightly unlikely. Bulgaria makes a bit more sense to me. Reconditioned Merkavas from storage are hardly SoTA, but would represent a significant upgrade to their T72s, which in turn could be easily and usefully deployed in Ukraine.
FPT, your convo about "...2 countries of which one European are on the verge of buying a total of more then 200 Merkave mk2 and mk3 tanks from Israeli storage...https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1669360854641278978 ...I wonder where these will be going...?"
May I point you to a rather fine past article in which the author pointed out that the Poles were on a spending spree which included all the tanks?
So it's either Poland or, given that Merkavas are heavy and difficult to deploy outside their country (a problem that isn't a problem for Israel, whose planning horizons don't include oceans), possibly Ukraine? They'd be a good fit: rear entrance, good in built-up areas, has own toilet so can poo inside. Plus don't they have active defence, Iron Whatever for tanks? Good for fighting drones.
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
What about Hayes and Harlington, next door to Uxbridge? West London outer suburb, mostly in Hillingdon, parts of it adjacent to Heathrow. Held by John McDonnell MP since 1997. Is Uxbridge that different?
Very much so, McDonnell's seat voted 56% for Corbyn in 2019, Uxbridge voted 53% for Boris
Well yes, I know that. My query was more about what makes the two neighbouring constituencies so different in their voting patterns.
Uxbridge is 60% ABC1 and Hayes and Harlington just 43% ABC1 class. Household average income is £54k average in Uxbridge but only £47k average in Hayes and average house price is £444k in Uxbridge but only £382k in Hayes.
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
What about Hayes and Harlington, next door to Uxbridge? West London outer suburb, mostly in Hillingdon, parts of it adjacent to Heathrow. Held by John McDonnell MP since 1997. Is Uxbridge that different?
Very much so, McDonnell's seat voted 56% for Corbyn in 2019, Uxbridge voted 53% for Boris
Well yes, I know that. My query was more about what makes the two neighbouring constituencies so different in their voting patterns.
Hayes has always been a bit poor. It's the sort of a place that the bus routes that go through it represent the glamour. Uxbridge has some historical glamour. My grandfather used to insist that we dressed smartly if we were going to Uxbridge.
These days, who knows. I suspect that old thoughts and prejudices linger.
FPT, your convo about "...2 countries of which one European are on the verge of buying a total of more then 200 Merkave mk2 and mk3 tanks from Israeli storage...https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1669360854641278978 ...I wonder where these will be going...?"
May I point you to a rather fine past article in which the author pointed out that the Poles were on a spending spree which included all the tanks?
So it's either Poland or, given that Merkavas are heavy and difficult to deploy outside their country (a problem that isn't a problem for Israel, whose planning horizons don't include oceans), possibly Ukraine? They'd be a good fit: rear entrance, good in built-up areas, has own toilet so can poo inside. Plus don't they have active defence, Iron Whatever for tanks? Good for fighting drones.
My thinking is that they could be either: *) Being refurbed and then straight to Ukraine; *) Being sent to an Eastern European country, to backfill for other tanks being sent to Ukraine.
My tuppence would be on the former. Ukraine needs tanks / IFVs, and age of kit isn't necessarily a limiting factor in this war. But I'm probably wrong.
A familiar story - lack of oversight, lack of curiosity, timidity over big issues and a focus on just keeping bills low, a culture that only wants good news and is extremely defensiv, - but still shocking for all that. A remarkable turnaround after delegating far too much authority to what is now clear was an incompetent, and not having sufficient oversight - it says their borrowing went from £34m to £1bn in just 4 years.
This phrase is a corker though
...the culmination of years of dysfunctional leadership characterised by complacency, denial, and what the review called “unconscious incompetence”
...The last Mori poll in July 1997 pre Uxbridge by election had Blair's New Labour on 57% to just 23% for Hague's Tories...
I honestly thought that was a typo, but yes: Hague was Con leader in July 1997, the date of the by-election. Well done you.
Indeed it was one of Hague's 3 big electoral triumphs, along with his big wins in the 1999 European elections and 2000 local elections. Just unfortunately for Hague Blair then trounced him in the 2001 general election almost exactly by the margin he trounced Major in 1997
FPT, your convo about "...2 countries of which one European are on the verge of buying a total of more then 200 Merkave mk2 and mk3 tanks from Israeli storage...https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1669360854641278978 ...I wonder where these will be going...?"
May I point you to a rather fine past article in which the author pointed out that the Poles were on a spending spree which included all the tanks?
So it's either Poland or, given that Merkavas are heavy and difficult to deploy outside their country (a problem that isn't a problem for Israel, whose planning horizons don't include oceans), possibly Ukraine? They'd be a good fit: rear entrance, good in built-up areas, has own toilet so can poo inside. Plus don't they have active defence, Iron Whatever for tanks? Good for fighting drones.
My thinking is that they could be either: *) Being refurbed and then straight to Ukraine; *) Being sent to an Eastern European country, to backfill for other tanks being sent to Ukraine.
My tuppence would be on the former. Ukraine needs tanks / IFVs, and age of kit isn't necessarily a limiting factor in this war. But I'm probably wrong.
Backfill seems more likely. Ukraine doesn't want yet another set of kit to have to train on and support logistically. Nor does Israel want to supply arms directly.
And there's plenty of precedent with Leopards in exchange for T72s etc.
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
There are a lot of Hindus in East Ham - are you going to argue the Conservatives will win the Wall End by-election on July 13th?
Anecdotally, the best Conservative performance of late in Newham came from a Sikh candidate in a local by-election. The local Conservative Hindus are mostly young business men with all the political awareness of a small gnat. As an aside, they are all men - they will speak to other men but refused to talk to Mrs Stodge when she answered the door to them.
No but I do expect a swing to the Tories in the Wall End by election
You may be right - I think Boleyn will be the interesting contest. My understanding is the Greens are putting in a lot of effort.
...The last Mori poll in July 1997 pre Uxbridge by election had Blair's New Labour on 57% to just 23% for Hague's Tories...
I honestly thought that was a typo, but yes: Hague was Con leader in July 1997, the date of the by-election. Well done you.
Indeed it was one of Hague's 3 big electoral triumphs, along with his big wins in the 1999 European elections and 2000 local elections. Just unfortunately for Hague Blair then trounced him in the 2001 general election almost exactly by the margin he trounced Major in 1997
I'd argue however losing the Romsey by-election was a poor result for Hague Had it happened while the Conservatives were in Government, it wouldn't have been a surprise but to lose a seat in opposition was disappointing.
In the 2000 London Mayoral election, Steven Norris got 27% first preference votes and 42% in the second round so was well beaten by Livingstone. I'd argue that was also a disappointment for Hague.
I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
I still don't understand why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab leak hypothesis.
Nor do I. It is a really weird mental syndrome. And most (not all) of the mad anti lab leakers seem to be on the left - here and elsewhere
Why this political division on a subject of basic science?! Is it Trump? Still? Really??
Is it coz "lab leak" is deemed racist? How is it less racist than saying it came from cruel Chinese with filthy eating habits guzzling bat soup in a squalid market?
One of the oddities of the age
So, lab leak...
Yes, it's possible, it's always been possible. But the reaction against it has been mostly a reaction against the loons who were certain about it in the face of a complete lack of evidence.
Person 1: it came from the lab! There's a fucking lab right there! Person 2: that's not evidence, other viruses have come from a animals on the wild.
Person 1 hears themselves saying they're open minded, not convinced, waiting for evidence Person 2 hears person 1 saying no way is it a lab leak (which, given the lack of evidence either way, would also be ridiculous)
I'm still open minded, as there's no compelling evidence either way. Natural source is possible, lab leak is possible. But I suspect you'll accuse me of being a lab leak denier
If it is a lab leak, I do think we'll probably get the proof some day. Someone knows or strongly suspects of that's the case. The not from the lab angle is harder/near impossible to prove, absent discovery of earliest infections far from the lab, which is of course great for the lab leak fans.
Even the ultimate wet marketeers - the guys who wrote the ludicrous Nature paper proximal origins - are now beginning to recant
“Influential Covid origin paper which dismissed China lab leak as conspiracy theory went 'too far', claims one of the researchers
By John Ely Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline Updated 16:11, 13 Jun 2023”
It’s over. It came from the lab. But you’ll never admit it because you’re too embarrassed
I still remember one of the earliest things about all this shit was overhearing two biomed professors talking and laughing saying something like "Ha! Yeah! Wouldn't surprise me! That Wuhan lab is a total shit-show! Hahahahaa...."
(That was about xmas 2019 / jan 2020)
Jeremy Farrar - then of the Wellcome - on learning of the lax biosecurity at Wuhan called it “Wild West”. He also said he favoured lab leak by 60/40 (IIRC). All revealed in emails that had to be FOIA’d
About a week later he co-signed the notorious letter to the Lancet which called lab leak a “conspiracy theory” with no basis in fact
I mean, it’s all out there. Public record. Why aren’t these people on trial? Or at least facing severe questions? 23.4 million people have died and they tried to cover up the reason
Off topic: As one who thinks it unlikely we will ever be certain about the origin(s) of COVID, may I make this suggestion to those who are certain of their opinions: Please give your estimate on the odds that your opinion is correct, every time you post a comment on the subject. (This is a betting site, after all.) Every time.
For example: 10-1 it's a lab leak, 100-1 it's a deliberate lab leak, 20-1 it's two seaparte lab leak. (There is a frequent commenter over at Patterico's who believes that.)
(One of the reasons I think it unlikely is the example of anthrax from the Svoiet Union, where there was an accidental leak. Even after Western scientists investigated in the area, they did not get the complete story, which came out later. And the ChiComs are rather good at confecting stories, with evidence, when they have a motive to do so.)
...The last Mori poll in July 1997 pre Uxbridge by election had Blair's New Labour on 57% to just 23% for Hague's Tories...
I honestly thought that was a typo, but yes: Hague was Con leader in July 1997, the date of the by-election. Well done you.
Indeed it was one of Hague's 3 big electoral triumphs, along with his big wins in the 1999 European elections and 2000 local elections. Just unfortunately for Hague Blair then trounced him in the 2001 general election almost exactly by the margin he trounced Major in 1997
I'd argue however losing the Romsey by-election was a poor result for Hague Had it happened while the Conservatives were in Government, it wouldn't have been a surprise but to lose a seat in opposition was disappointing.
In the 2000 London Mayoral election, Steven Norris got 27% first preference votes and 42% in the second round so was well beaten by Livingstone. I'd argue that was also a disappointment for Hague.
Indeed and I expect his 2001 landslide defeat was even more of a disappointment for Hague.
Despite his Oxford 1st and brilliant oratory, Hague has the worst electoral record of any Conservative leader since the Duke of Wellington. 1 landslide general election defeat and not a single general election victory to counterbalance it (as Major had in 1992 or Churchill in 1951 or Balfour nearly did in 1910).
Even IDS and Truss can say they were never defeated at a general election unlike Hague even if they never won a general election either.
Rishi must hope he improves Tory poll ratings over the next year or 2 and does not replace William as the worst Tory leader since 1832 in electoral terms
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
Yeah, well they can fuck off with their cheese and their “deli meats” and the fact they are all 90 stone
Why don’t they sweat some of the lard off in their “proper” heatwaves?
No lingering goodwill to them following your recent trips?
I’m teasing them coz I like them. Generous kind and often funny. Hospitable. Good people. America is full of good people (I’m still out here and happy to be so)
Jesus they are fat tho. If you think, say, Margate or Mansfield are bad for lard-arses, do a roadtrip across the mid West
Their 2 year dip in life expectancy really should come as no surprise. Guns, drugs and trans-fats...
A familiar story - lack of oversight, lack of curiosity, timidity over big issues and a focus on just keeping bills low, a culture that only wants good news and is extremely defensiv, - but still shocking for all that. A remarkable turnaround after delegating far too much authority to what is now clear was an incompetent, and not having sufficient oversight - it says their borrowing went from £34m to £1bn in just 4 years.
This phrase is a corker though
...the culmination of years of dysfunctional leadership characterised by complacency, denial, and what the review called “unconscious incompetence”
Also know as...incompetence.
Another Tory run council, or is that just coincidence, and Labour councils have been doing this too?
Americans have been right to apparently mock British people for complaining about a 27 / 80 degree heatwave, which doesn't really count as a heatwave in most of the US.
Yeah, well they can fuck off with their cheese and their “deli meats” and the fact they are all 90 stone
Why don’t they sweat some of the lard off in their “proper” heatwaves?
No lingering goodwill to them following your recent trips?
I’m teasing them coz I like them. Generous kind and often funny. Hospitable. Good people. America is full of good people (I’m still out here and happy to be so)
Jesus they are fat tho. If you think, say, Margate or Mansfield are bad for lard-arses, do a roadtrip across the mid West
Their 2 year dip in life expectancy really should come as no surprise. Guns, drugs and trans-fats...
Tsk, how dare you use such a transphobic and fat phobic term, you’ll end up banned. Partially hydrogenated fats to you young man.
On topic: Thanks, as other have said, to Cyclefree for the solid header. And I will add this bit: The time and thought devoted to scandal by journalists detracts from the time and thought needed for rational discussions of problems and policies. For example, fentanyl is one of the reasons that life expectancy has declined in the US since the last year or two of Obama's time in office. But there has been very little public discussion of that problem.
If economists will forgive me for this, we might say that Trump's endless bad behavior has imposed a large "opportunity cost" on our policy-making.
...The last Mori poll in July 1997 pre Uxbridge by election had Blair's New Labour on 57% to just 23% for Hague's Tories...
I honestly thought that was a typo, but yes: Hague was Con leader in July 1997, the date of the by-election. Well done you.
Indeed it was one of Hague's 3 big electoral triumphs, along with his big wins in the 1999 European elections and 2000 local elections. Just unfortunately for Hague Blair then trounced him in the 2001 general election almost exactly by the margin he trounced Major in 1997
I'd argue however losing the Romsey by-election was a poor result for Hague Had it happened while the Conservatives were in Government, it wouldn't have been a surprise but to lose a seat in opposition was disappointing.
In the 2000 London Mayoral election, Steven Norris got 27% first preference votes and 42% in the second round so was well beaten by Livingstone. I'd argue that was also a disappointment for Hague.
Indeed and I expect his 2001 landslide defeat was even more of a disappointment for Hague.
Despite his Oxford 1st and brilliant oratory, Hague has the worst electoral record of any Conservative leader since the Duke of Wellington. 1 landslide general election defeat and not a single general election victory to counterbalance it (as Major had in 1992 or Churchill in 1951 or Balfour nearly did in 1910).
Even IDS and Truss can say they were never defeated at a general election unlike Hague even if they never won a general election either.
Rishi must hope he improves Tory poll ratings over the next year or 2 and does not replace William as the worst Tory leader since 1832 in electoral terms
It's curious but I think the chastening experience of defeat was the making of William Hague.
He wasn't ready to become leader in 1997 but rode a wave of popular acclaim. Since 2001, I think he has evolved to be one of the most perceptive and interesting of Conservative thinkers - I read his thoughts with much more interest than I do those of many other Conservatives.
He served later Conservative leaders well and of course Rishi Sunak has inherited his former Parliamentary seat.
I'd also argue Kinnock, Major and even Gordon Brown found a new perspective following their rejections by the electorate. I sometimes wish we heard more from David Cameron - he seems to have folded his tent and departed the scene since 2016 - perhaps, in the future, his counsel will again be sought by the Conservative Party.
Rishi would sell his soul to hold two of the three.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
I think Mid Beds will be a LD gain, 11% forecast LD share is ludicrous given it is a by election they are targeting hard.
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think I read somewhere that Uxbridge has a large Hindu community. Is that influencing your forecast?
Very much so. Plus Hillingdon council stayed Tory last year while Central Beds is NOC and Khan's ULEZ extension to out London is unpopular there
What about Hayes and Harlington, next door to Uxbridge? West London outer suburb, mostly in Hillingdon, parts of it adjacent to Heathrow. Held by John McDonnell MP since 1997. Is Uxbridge that different?
Very much so, McDonnell's seat voted 56% for Corbyn in 2019, Uxbridge voted 53% for Boris
Well yes, I know that. My query was more about what makes the two neighbouring constituencies so different in their voting patterns.
Uxbridge is 60% ABC1 and Hayes and Harlington just 43% ABC1 class. Household average income is £54k average in Uxbridge but only £47k average in Hayes and average house price is £444k in Uxbridge but only £382k in Hayes.
I haven't done the maths, but given all the other stats quoted, the difference in average income strikes me as surprisingly small - and indeed given house prices, thise in Hayes might actually have more disposable income. Though presumably age profiles are different and housing costs less of an issue to the retired own-outrighters I'd imagine are more common in Uxbridge. Age profiles explain more than most in politics at present. Do we have stats on age profiles for the two seats?
They are referring to slaves as “the enslaved community”. Like “the Sikh community”. Like they just happened to migrate here and requested some shackles
What does that make the Jews arriving at Auschwitz? The pre-gassing community?
I am guilty of this sort of 'sophisticated contempt' myself on occasion, and in political terms it does me think I might sometimes be a bit harsh on those genuinely enthusiastic about a political ideology, rather than some condescending centrist fudge. Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1 Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
You also see this with difficult or uncomfortable truths. Any neutral observer could see Lab Leak was entirely plausible as an explanation for Covid, and is now highly likely, or near certain
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
I still don't understand why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab leak hypothesis.
Nor do I. It is a really weird mental syndrome. And most (not all) of the mad anti lab leakers seem to be on the left - here and elsewhere
Why this political division on a subject of basic science?! Is it Trump? Still? Really??
Is it coz "lab leak" is deemed racist? How is it less racist than saying it came from cruel Chinese with filthy eating habits guzzling bat soup in a squalid market?
One of the oddities of the age
So, lab leak...
Yes, it's possible, it's always been possible. But the reaction against it has been mostly a reaction against the loons who were certain about it in the face of a complete lack of evidence.
Person 1: it came from the lab! There's a fucking lab right there! Person 2: that's not evidence, other viruses have come from a animals on the wild.
Person 1 hears themselves saying they're open minded, not convinced, waiting for evidence Person 2 hears person 1 saying no way is it a lab leak (which, given the lack of evidence either way, would also be ridiculous)
I'm still open minded, as there's no compelling evidence either way. Natural source is possible, lab leak is possible. But I suspect you'll accuse me of being a lab leak denier
If it is a lab leak, I do think we'll probably get the proof some day. Someone knows or strongly suspects of that's the case. The not from the lab angle is harder/near impossible to prove, absent discovery of earliest infections far from the lab, which is of course great for the lab leak fans.
Even the ultimate wet marketeers - the guys who wrote the ludicrous Nature paper proximal origins - are now beginning to recant
“Influential Covid origin paper which dismissed China lab leak as conspiracy theory went 'too far', claims one of the researchers
By John Ely Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline Updated 16:11, 13 Jun 2023”
It’s over. It came from the lab. But you’ll never admit it because you’re too embarrassed
I still remember one of the earliest things about all this shit was overhearing two biomed professors talking and laughing saying something like "Ha! Yeah! Wouldn't surprise me! That Wuhan lab is a total shit-show! Hahahahaa...."
(That was about xmas 2019 / jan 2020)
Jeremy Farrar - then of the Wellcome - on learning of the lax biosecurity at Wuhan called it “Wild West”. He also said he favoured lab leak by 60/40 (IIRC). All revealed in emails that had to be FOIA’d
About a week later he co-signed the notorious letter to the Lancet which called lab leak a “conspiracy theory” with no basis in fact
I mean, it’s all out there. Public record. Why aren’t these people on trial? Or at least facing severe questions? 23.4 million people have died and they tried to cover up the reason
"The average life expectancy in the United States has been on a decline since 2014. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cites three main reasons: a 72% increase in overdoses in the last decade (including a 30% increase in opioid overdoses from July 2016 to September 2017, but did not differentiate between accidental overdose with a legal prescription and overdose with opioids obtained illegally and/or combined with illegal drugs i.e., heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine, etc.), a ten-year increase in liver disease (the rate for men age 25 to 34 increased by 8% per year; for women, by 11% per year), and a 33% increase in suicide rates since 1999." source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
So, according to the CDC, the decline in life expectancy in the US in the last decade was not due to increases in trans fats or guns. (Except, possibly, that guns may have made would-be suicides more likely to succeed in their attempts.)
Comments
“Influential Covid origin paper which dismissed China lab leak as conspiracy theory went 'too far', claims one of the researchers
By John Ely Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline
Updated 16:11, 13 Jun 2023”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12189717/Influential-paper-dismissed-Covid-lab-leak-went-far-claims-one-researchers.html
It’s over. It came from the lab. But you’ll never admit it because you’re too embarrassed
Braverman broke the actual law. For which she had to resign and yet was, unbelievably, recalled.
About the only thing I can think of to say in favour of either of them is that they are not quite so unpleasant and stupid as Jacob Rees-Mogg.
I have said to family in jest before that if I ever suffer a tragic event which makes the news to not say a damn thing and don't share any photos of me, and not only because there are very few good ones.
Beating a toxic Corbyn and unhinged Livingstone was hardly climbing Mount Everest .
Also I have nothing to embarrassed about.*
*Well that’s almost certainly a lie…
There are 352 Tory MPs. Just seven have publicly indicated they‘ll come to Boris’s aid by voting against the partygate report.
A memo said “If we are covering Pride events, we need to consider how to make the story balanced and get both sides of the issue.
https://twitter.com/rosekellywhite/status/1669171445430091779
There are, of course, prominent Republicans in Grand Rapids who are gay...
🚨ANOTHER Conservative MP announces they're not standing at the next election.
@lucyallan not running for Telford again.
No reason given.
(Majority - 10,941)
It’s time up for Johnson as the so many scales have fallen from eyes we’ll be shovelling scales until the next election…
Having said that, I'm glad those days are behind me.
My thoughts and prayers are with those families.
Yet again, it's the GOP proposing to do precisely what they (dubiously) accuse Democrats of.
“ Three Wuhan lab scientists who were genetically altering the Covid virus were the first to fall sick with it, a new investigation has claimed.
According to multiple US government officials interviewed as part of a lengthy inquiry by independent news outlet Public and Racket, the first people infected by the virus are allegedly Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu
They were all members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus and were partaking in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) on SARS-like coronaviruses.
Gain-of-function research involves altering animal viruses in a lab to make them more infectious.“
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12194457/Three-Wuhan-lab-scientists-genetically-altering-Covid-contract-virus-says-report.html
I strongly suspect the US government knew from the start it almost certainly came from the lab, but they conspired to keep it quiet because
1. The US funded some of the GOF research
2. They didn’t want to help Trump who was loudly talking about “Wuhan flu”
3. They had a lot of terrified scientists saying “if we admit that we’ve killed millions of people we will get lynched and science will finish”
So they got lab leak literally banned as a subject matter, for a year, on Twitter and Facebook
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/americans-are-trolling-brits-for-not-being-able-to-handle-heatwave/ar-AA1cwvRn
He has more people than 7 who like him in the Commons, and probably some more who don't like him but don't like the Standards process as well, and I genuinely think had he stuck to his guns and gotten a moderate sanction (albeit one sufficient to trigger a recall petition, which is what the Committee indicated they would do without setting a total amount of days) that he could have caused a very awkward situation for Rishi, with s reasonable number voting against the sanction.
But since there would have been enough to pass it, perhaps he decided going scorched earth a) helped his portrayal of the sanciton being vindictive, since the severity increased due to his reaction, and he is not even in the House anymore, b) aided a narrative that he has more support than it appears, because he can suggest MPs did not vote against the sanction because it was pointless as he'd already gone, so they were not going along with the nonsense.
Why don’t they sweat some of the lard off in their “proper” heatwaves?
Ken Livingstone might be a widely discredited figure now, but when he was defeated by Boris Johnson (the first time) he was the two-time election winner in London who, the first time, had won as an independent in an election system designed to crush the chances of any candidate outside the big two parties.
I find the obsession some people have with trying to argue that Boris Johnson didn't have some special appeal to the electorate that transcended that of any of his contemporaries really bizarre. I might not have liked it, but it was definitely there, and I can only hope that it has now passed, and stays passed.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1669410634717380615?t=BJ7oNdbFuwznxoZKZsGgBw&s=19
And this in a country where they have not had a party leader like we do.
A Rush of Blood the the Head: excellent
Visa La Vida: decent
The rest? Mostly utter shit.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2024: Trump holds 32-point lead for Republican Nomination
Trump 44% (+5 from May)
DeSantis 12% (-6)
Christie 7% (+7)
Scott 7% (+6)
Haley 5% (+2)
Ramaswamy 3% (-3)
Pence 3% (+2)
Hutchinson 2% (+1)
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1669382405168197632?cxt=HHwWgMCz5fyc66ouAAAA
No, not that Trump is way ahead and the no hopwers are splitting the anti-Trump vote, that's expected and his opponents are just hoping he will be convicted and force him out (fat chance).
But for once it's an american poll where it shows the difference since the last one, not the gap between first and second.
Jesus they are fat tho. If you think, say, Margate or Mansfield are bad for lard-arses, do a roadtrip across the mid West
As for Starmer, he is obviously terrified of looking "weak" in front of the Mail but it may also be he enjoys the power as well.
The people at the centre of the conspiracy - Daszak, Horton, Fauci, etc - do need to see the interior of a courtroom however
They use the kind of snark I use.
Eventually, a local came out in his full coat and sat outside complaining how cold it was.
https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1669348844835082243?cxt=HHwWhsDU6cD726ouAAAA
We know from the Dominion case that Fox is paranoid about upsetting its base, it is a business after all, and that telling the base what it does not want to hear hurts that business, and we know the base don't want to hear that there is a case against Trump and he might actually have done something wrong. So despite Barr's position at least being pretty unequivocal about the right to have the documents almost being a sideshow - the bigger issue being obstruction to a subpoena, and if he'd just complied there'd be no charge on holding the docs - you can smell the desperation as the host tries to push a line that he was President when he left with the docs, so that's ok?
How does the network play it, by being a little more frank about genuine threats to the big man, without upsetting the fans?
Has anyone other than the mail picked that up? Only I've been reading the mail last couple of days and it's full of crap, so if like to see a more reputable source.
Anecdotally, the best Conservative performance of late in Newham came from a Sikh candidate in a local by-election. The local Conservative Hindus are mostly young business men with all the political awareness of a small gnat. As an aside, they are all men - they will speak to other men but refused to talk to Mrs Stodge when she answered the door to them.
Official report criticises Tory-run authority’s dysfunctional leadership and says it tried to silence critics
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jun/15/thurrock-council-hid-losses-gambled-millions-risky-investments
If the reporting on the US intelligence is accurate then it seems a lab leak moves from possible to more likely than any other explanation.
I wonder how long they have had that intelligence? Did they know from the start or was it only uncovered more recently? It’s surprising that Trump didn’t order it to be made public if it was known earlier, unless it was deliberately kept from him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2001_United_Kingdom_general_election
So why did the Tories hold on? Labour complacency and hubris picking a central London councillor (not unlike the Labour candidate now) while the Conservatives picked a popular local furniture store director and local Association Chairman and ran an old fashioned campaign door to door.
If the relatives don't want any media contact they should be able to say: "We will not be speaking or making any statement to anybody about anything, nor will we be issuing photos or anything else. Thank you."
And that should be it. If anybody does approach then tell them to go away and if they don't call the police and report them for harassment.
Start here with the National Review
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-truth-about-covids-origin-is-coming-out/
FPT, your convo about "...2 countries of which one European are on the verge of buying a total of more then 200 Merkave mk2 and mk3 tanks from Israeli storage...https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1669360854641278978 ...I wonder where these will be going...?"
May I point you to a rather fine past article in which the author pointed out that the Poles were on a spending spree which included all the tanks?
So it's either Poland or, given that Merkavas are heavy and difficult to deploy outside their country (a problem that isn't a problem for Israel, whose planning horizons don't include oceans), possibly Ukraine? They'd be a good fit: rear entrance, good in built-up areas, has own toilet so can poo inside. Plus don't they have active defence, Iron Whatever for tanks? Good for fighting drones.
Heck, maybe Trump was such a threat their conspiracy was justified 🤷♂️
(That was about xmas 2019 / jan 2020)
Bulgaria makes a bit more sense to me. Reconditioned Merkavas from storage are hardly SoTA, but would represent a significant upgrade to their T72s, which in turn could be easily and usefully deployed in Ukraine.
Most importantly Hayes and Harlington is just 46% home owners, while Uxbridge is 59% home owners
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Hayes and Harlington
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-data-housing-tenure/
These days, who knows. I suspect that old thoughts and prejudices linger.
*) Being refurbed and then straight to Ukraine;
*) Being sent to an Eastern European country, to backfill for other tanks being sent to Ukraine.
My tuppence would be on the former. Ukraine needs tanks / IFVs, and age of kit isn't necessarily a limiting factor in this war. But I'm probably wrong.
This phrase is a corker though
...the culmination of years of dysfunctional leadership characterised by complacency, denial, and what the review called “unconscious incompetence”
Also know as...incompetence.
Ukraine doesn't want yet another set of kit to have to train on and support logistically.
Nor does Israel want to supply arms directly.
And there's plenty of precedent with Leopards in exchange for T72s etc.
No Assembly Required: Swedish Arms Deliveries To #Ukraine 🇸🇪🇺🇦
Moved from PLEDGED to DELIVERED:
- The First Of 50 CV9040C IFVs With Barracuda Thermal Camouflage System
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1669428876898979847
In the 2000 London Mayoral election, Steven Norris got 27% first preference votes and 42% in the second round so was well beaten by Livingstone. I'd argue that was also a disappointment for Hague.
About a week later he co-signed the notorious letter to the Lancet which called lab leak a “conspiracy theory” with no basis in fact
I mean, it’s all out there. Public record. Why aren’t these people on trial? Or at least facing severe questions? 23.4 million people have died and they tried to cover up the reason
For example: 10-1 it's a lab leak, 100-1 it's a deliberate lab leak, 20-1 it's two seaparte lab leak. (There is a frequent commenter over at Patterico's who believes that.)
(One of the reasons I think it unlikely is the example of anthrax from the Svoiet Union, where there was an accidental leak. Even after Western scientists investigated in the area, they did not get the complete story, which came out later. And the ChiComs are rather good at confecting stories, with evidence, when they have a motive to do so.)
Despite his Oxford 1st and brilliant oratory, Hague has the worst electoral record of any Conservative leader since the Duke of Wellington. 1 landslide general election defeat and not a single general election victory to counterbalance it (as Major had in 1992 or Churchill in 1951 or Balfour nearly did in 1910).
Even IDS and Truss can say they were never defeated at a general election unlike Hague even if they never won a general election either.
Rishi must hope he improves Tory poll ratings over the next year or 2 and does not replace William as the worst Tory leader since 1832 in electoral terms
If economists will forgive me for this, we might say that Trump's endless bad behavior has imposed a large "opportunity cost" on our policy-making.
Boris Johnson’s newly unearthed official diaries have revealed 16 MORE gatherings at No10 and Chequers that may have broken lockdown rules
https://twitter.com/soph_husk/status/1669430623398776842
He wasn't ready to become leader in 1997 but rode a wave of popular acclaim. Since 2001, I think he has evolved to be one of the most perceptive and interesting of Conservative thinkers - I read his thoughts with much more interest than I do those of many other Conservatives.
He served later Conservative leaders well and of course Rishi Sunak has inherited his former Parliamentary seat.
I'd also argue Kinnock, Major and even Gordon Brown found a new perspective following their rejections by the electorate. I sometimes wish we heard more from David Cameron - he seems to have folded his tent and departed the scene since 2016 - perhaps, in the future, his counsel will again be sought by the Conservative Party.
Age profiles explain more than most in politics at present. Do we have stats on age profiles for the two seats?
They are referring to slaves as “the enslaved community”. Like “the Sikh community”. Like they just happened to migrate here and requested some shackles
What does that make the Jews arriving at Auschwitz? The pre-gassing community?
Right up until the moment where Chris Martin opens his mouth.
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
So, according to the CDC, the decline in life expectancy in the US in the last decade was not due to increases in trans fats or guns. (Except, possibly, that guns may have made would-be suicides more likely to succeed in their attempts.)