Categories
Here today. Gone tomorrow. – politicalbetting.com
Here today. Gone tomorrow. – politicalbetting.com
This week has seen 2 dominant politicians depart and 1 make the same sort of dangerous mistakes.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Clearly Boris does understand, clearly nearly all of his allies do too. The important thing for all of them is to work out quite how to row back a little (well a lot).
If Boris goes all Trump it'll be a very sad day in British politics, and we've had today which is quite sad enough.
The best thing about today's news was that it was unanimous. Whilst I, and no doubt others, and really most people, might suspect Harriet Harman of potentially having a mean streak, the same cannot be said of all members of the committee.
You may not like the MPs, and Dorries has proven herself inappropriate again, but nominating former ministers, of whatever quality, for honours is not, per se, corrupt.
And the thing is it is not as though processes are beyond criticism. But Boris and co are not sincerely criticising the process - just as with the Paterson attempt the process is mischaracterised, or even simply made up. So you have the assertion Paterson hadn't been able to defend himself, that Boris was being expelled by a small group of MPs etc, in essence to attempt to present him as having no choice but to resign, rather than continue to fight along the terms of the process as he could have, and should have.
Disagreement with a judgement or outcome is presented as a failure of the process itself, eg you've ruled against me you must be biased/have ignored evidence/ignored law. Yes, if things had gone the other way some would have attacked an overly weak process, but we can only deal with the scenario in front of us - and Boris quitting shows he lacks confidence even his core supporters would judge him kindly. It enables him to pillory the process, without letting it reach its full conclusion, as he and supporters will for eternity claim he was forced out by an evil cabal of MPs when he was not. Or if he was, the people could have saved him.
Humza appears to just be so used to praising and backing Sturgeon he cannot stop, even if he hardly needed to come out against her, given the stage of the process and that it might all come to nothing, so proper caution in tone would be fine.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/15/music-publishers-sue-twitter-copyright-elon-musk-tweets?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Loved this column from @j_amesmarriott on why enthusiasm > snark
https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1669292587868467200/photo/1
Though I still think the execreble conduct you see in defence of a person or ideology which is of the 'correct' tribe justifies that distance.
But as far as cultural criticis go, absolutely.
The question of suspension is different. I note only that Sturgeon was quick to suspend but her allies now expect her to be treated differently. How very like Boris.
One issue parties with leaders who are seen as embodying that issue - whether Brexit or independence - are a cancer in our body politic. It leads to arrogance, hubris and very bad governance. Scotland under the SNP has been as badly governed as Britain has under the Tories.
I have not had Internet access here all day (Isle of Man) but as usual @Cyclefree hits the nail on the head
There can be no way back for Johnson as a conservative mp and time to end his association with the conservative party going forward
Anything else will see the end of the conservative party as we know it
Boris is gone and Berlusconi is dead
Yousaf is FM demanding fealty for a potential criminal. Dangerously stupid
I don't think she will end up being charged (or anyone for that matter), but it'd be worth it (even if then dropped), just to see whether he would pull back at that formal stage, or double down. After all, as some of Salmond's mob could tell us, you can be 'vindicated' in the end.
Yet there is a kind of world weary middlebrow PB-er who preferred (and some still prefer) to accept the easier, comforting, received opinion, rather than risk looking ridiculous. I know I bang on obnoxiously about IQ but it really is the mid range PBers (in terms of intellect) who do this. @Foxy, @kinabalu et al - the Quintessentially Beta People- just as it is the mid range critics who resist enthusiasm in music or art, for fear of having their intense mediocrity revealed
Tellingly, Tory whips have offered “slips” (permission to skip the Commons) for Monday to MPs willing to go and campaign in the by-election seats, I'm told
Sounds like quite a few MPs will seize the chance to miss the (unwhipped) vote on privileges cmtte report on Boris Johnson
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1669322727310729217?cxt=HHwWgoC9jaKL0KouAAAA
There is absolutely no reason - for party discipline - to make any comments on a live police investigation. I take the same approach on this as I would do were this a police investigation of a senior manager in, say, a financial institution.
Uxbridge
Lab 47.5%
Con 37.5%
Mid Beds
Con 41.6%
Lab 33.8%
LD 11.6%
Selby
Con 41.6%
Lab 37.7%
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
Though if they are beta I dread to think what might come below.
Somewhat like pontificating on how hard or cool you are.
Copyright is a bit of a dog's breakfast.
The Leader is above Critique. The Caudillo is never wrong. How dare you say that about the Tsar
Yousaf was doing OK, I thought (against very low expectations admittedly), but he has managed to surprise on the downside on this, and in an explosive way
In part I think its done in hope criticisms are couched in more general, technical terms, thereby allowing the guilty party to act as though their conduct was benign and its all over the top reaction, or confuse the issue around what it is about at all.
Viva La Vida is one of the most stirring pop songs of the 21st century. It is impossible to listen to it without thinking Oooh, yeah, as you clock those brilliant opening bars
They've written three or four other classic songs, as well. Along with lots of crud, for sure
But that is three or four classics more than most pop music acts
OK my lunchtime trolling in the By the By Coffeeshop, in Staunton Virginia, is done, and I am disturbingly attracted to a Milfy blonde sat right down next to me, and to avoid looking at her legs and being labelled a sick, ageing British perv I am going to get in my car and drive to Monticello
Later!
Why this political division on a subject of basic science?! Is it Trump? Still? Really??
Is it coz "lab leak" is deemed racist? How is it less racist than saying it came from cruel Chinese with filthy eating habits guzzling bat soup in a squalid market?
One of the oddities of the age
I don't know the origin of covid, and it may well be that no-one knows. I suspect that we will never know for sure as it is not a neutral subject, and vested interests are not objective in how they look at evidence.
I'm not a fan of Ed Sheeran's music at all, but I have found a lot of respect for him given the amount of time he's spent in court to explain music and songwriting, and not just leaving it to his lawyers.
You just cannot pretend to be incredibly stupid but also completely on top of everything, or to be completely clear in your own mind on what you meant but unable to communicate that in a way without appearing to mean something completely different. Not credibly - if anything, if someone has some respect for Boris's abilities his defence on this one is more likely to fail. When you are reliant on twisting the meaning, people will cry foul.
[Boris] was deliberately disingenuous when he tried to reinterpret his statements to the House to avoid their plain meaning and reframe the clear impression that he intended to give, namely i) when he advanced unsustainable interpretations of the Rules and Guidance to advance the argument that the lack of social distancing at gatherings was permissible within the exceptions which allowed for gatherings, and
ii) when he advanced legally impermissible reasons to justify the gatherings.
I've never been satisfied that David Kelly really did take his own life, for example.
One of the most joyous and uplifting pop songs of the age. I see it has 825 MILLION views - so the world seems to agree with me rather than with the PB beta cucks
https://youtu.be/dvgZkm1xWPE
Now personally I think Yousaf is probably right not to suspend Sturgeon for now, especially as Sturgeon was only arrested and has not yet been charged let alone convicted.
However it is notable while the SNP were trashing Boris today on the report's conclusions and being fined in lockdown as the Devil incarnate, the SNP activists have been sending bunches of flowers to Sturgeon's home
It is inevitable that Ministers make mistakes and inadvertently mislead, and when they do, they are expected to correct the record at the earliest opportunity. This happens routinely. When a Minister makes an honest mistake and then corrects it, that is democracy working as it should. There is no basis for any fear that the requirement to be truthful with the House has a “chilling” effect on the ability of Ministers to be candid with the House. The House will also be understanding if a Minister declines to answer, for example, on matters which relate to national security or market sensitivity. But misleading intentionally or recklessly, refusing to answer legitimate questions, or failing to correct misleading statements, impedes or frustrates the functioning of the House and is a contempt
It was a photo I'd taken of the front of York Minster whilst I was on a walk. They had a link to the photo they thought I was infringing, and they were similar. Except theirs had an effing big lampost right in front of, and central to, the frame, whilst mine did not.
Evidently some algorithm had flagged the pictures up as being similar.
The man appalls me but he did have the occasional genuine truth to power moments, often drowned out by his conspiracy bullshittery.
You think the outcomes would be different in the other two, or proportions?
Uxbridge I think could be a shock Tory hold.
I think we have seen the end of Johnson this week, but I thought that of Berlesconi too, yet he seemed to come back regularly in Italian politics for far too long.
Populism on both right and left tends to burn itself out as it encompasses too many incompatible policies, and eventually is caught out by its own contraindications. It takes a long time though, and it seems quite likely that we are going to see a revival next year when Trump gets re-elected.
Thanks to @Cyclefree for yet another thought-provoking piece.
One of Johnson's greatest failings, in my view, was his determination to take proper accounting and scrutiny from Parliament and keep it with Ministers - HIS Ministers, Ministers who would serve at his discretion and whim. Too much has gone from Westminster to Whitehall and to the Cabinet table.
Depressingly, but not surprisingly given their track record, Labour are showing no interest in rolling any of this back but will simply enjoy the freedom from scrutiny, accountability and control which Boris Johnson and a pliant Party will provide. As we've seen with the right to protest, the only party more adept at authoritarianism than the Conservatives is Labour.
@Cyclefree may claim there is no requirement for constitutional change - I disagree. I believe there's a huge requirement for power to be returned from the Executive to the Legislature and for a rapid and comprehensive decentralisation and devolution of powers and responsibilities from Westminster to the directly elected local authorities which currently exist.
Mr Johnson has provided, under a statement of truth, explanations of the 16 events
referred to in the recent material submitted to us by the Government. We have no evidence
conflicting with his account. We do not wish to incur the further delay to our inquiry
that would result from a detailed investigation of these events, and therefore we treat Mr
Johnson’s explanations as prima facie true. If for any reasons it subsequently emerges that
Mr Johnson’s explanations are not true, then he may have committed a further contempt.
Here's the version of the video as Coldplay's tribute to Depeche Mode's Enjoy the Silence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kVxpsi1XQ4
We're entitled to judge him on that basis.
It would be a bigger triumph than David Austick's in Ripon in 1973 were it to come off. Austick managed a 25% swing to beat the Conservatives but the candidate now needs just over 26% to move past the Conservatives and I suspect there will be a Green candidate pushing hard to build on their 2022 success in Ouseburn.
Lol
We don’t know for sure. We probably never will be certain. And that’s a scientific stand point, not a hack travel reporter.
In fact I doubt more than 50 Tory MPs will even turn up for the Boris report vote if that and those that do will be his hardcore fans like Mogg and Dorries or Boris haters like May and Davis.
The Report will be approved by the Commons but almost entirely only Opposition MPs will vote for it
It is a deeply unpleasant, nasty, sneering, mendacious piece of work. It ought to make all those who still think that Boris is "a bit of laugh" think again. He really shows his true, vindictive colours throughout, but especially in his assault on Harman (who clearly didn't even need to use her Chair's casting vote given the unanimity of the Committee).
The bloke really is a complete shit, and that's my last word on the matter (possibly).
Yes, it's possible, it's always been possible. But the reaction against it has been mostly a reaction against the loons who were certain about it in the face of a complete lack of evidence.
Person 1: it came from the lab! There's a fucking lab right there!
Person 2: that's not evidence, other viruses have come from a animals on the wild.
Person 1 hears themselves saying they're open minded, not convinced, waiting for evidence
Person 2 hears person 1 saying no way is it a lab leak (which, given the lack of evidence either way, would also be ridiculous)
I'm still open minded, as there's no compelling evidence either way. Natural source is possible, lab leak is possible. But I suspect you'll accuse me of being a lab leak denier
If it is a lab leak, I do think we'll probably get the proof some day. Someone knows or strongly suspects of that's the case. The not from the lab angle is harder/near impossible to prove, absent discovery of earliest infections far from the lab, which is of course great for the lab leak fans.
I mentioned Starmer because he promises integrity and good judgment, trades on his DPP experience endlessly and, yet, when asked to make a judgment call, makes a truly repellent one. It is not a good start.
It's the last thing on earth I would want to do.
Several years ago my Uncle died in hospital after being hit by a car when crossing the road. The police came and had a long meeting with me and my mother (we were next of kin). I was astonished that one question on their checklist was "Would this be of interest to the media? Do we need to contact the media?"
It was as if they thought it was their job to feed stuff to the media.
I appreciate that what happened in Nottingham is much higher profile but the same principles apply.
Unless he plans to hide in a tiny fridge for eighteen months.
It boils down to (paraphrased) "I said I believed X, it is not allowed to not accept my word".
As the committee responds, it is entitled to conclude otherwise. People may disagree with that conclusion, but that is not an issue of process, as Boris claims it is.
Thing is, like Starmer when he has had to make a big call on personnel or indeed policy rather too often he seems to get it wrong. If anything, rather more so than Starmer.
I suppose the key difference between Starmer and Sunak as against Johnson and Corbyn is you can at least make an arguable (if not necessarily correct) case they are acting with honourable motives.
As for Nottingham, I simply cannot imagine the pain they must be going through. Maybe being with the other families and seeing how much their children were valued helps in some way. I don't think of us can know how we might react. In the aftermath of any death I think many are in a sort of shock and doing something - anything - helps. Hence the rituals that have built up. A vigil is a sort of ritual. And saying someone's name helps keep the person real somehow. Maybe.
I only pray that the families can get through this and find some comfort.
Speaking of travel hacks, I see that ex PBer @Seant pretty much nailed the truth way back in early 2021: it came from the lab - and was confident enough to write it and publish it rather than make squeaking noises on an anonymous website
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-id-write-covid-the-thriller/
They seem to be equally condemned, and in both cases rather blurrily.
Interested as to others thoughts.
Simply declaring 'I am honest' is not persuasive (cf Blair, 'pretty straight kind of guy').
The Tories won't be too unhappy with only being 10% behind in Uxbridge because it would give them an outside chance if the campaign goes well.
The Radical Strategy Behind Trump’s Promise to ‘Go After’ Biden
Conservatives with close ties to Donald J. Trump are laying out a “paradigm-shifting” legal rationale to erase the Justice Department’s independence from the president.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/15/us/politics/trump-indictment-justice-department.html
That is the road to fascism.