Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
by just lazily saying Putin at everything Lucky says, does it mean you don’t actually have an argument against every other each thing Lucky is saying?
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
by just lazily saying Putin at everything Lucky says, does it mean you don’t actually have an argument against every other each thing Lucky is saying?
There was a lengthy series of points of order about applying for or accepting an office of profit under the crown around Adams' resignation.
Ultimately the Speaker seems to have taken the view that people need to calm the heck down, and that someone who wanted to quit was appointed so its fine, and a hypothetical 'frustrated' resignation someone wanted to take back didn't need getting into. Hilary Benn ...There is quite an important issue here about the nature of an application, because if, for the sake of argument, a Member were to express the view that they might feel like resigning from the House, the Chancellor might then appoint them and they would find themselves disqualified. Surely there must be a clear procedure for making it transparent that the Member in question has applied for the Chiltern Hundreds. The question that is being asked—a question to which the House would like an answer—is: was an application made in this case specifically for the Chiltern Hundreds which then led the Chancellor of the Exchequer to make the appointment, and was it accepted?
Mr Speaker ... the matter to which he has just referred—whether an application for the Chiltern Hundreds has been made—is, I am afraid, not a matter for me. The matter has been addressed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the execution of his responsibilities, and this is one of those occasions on which it is right for me to communicate the facts of the situation, but not to wallow in the realms of metaphysical abstraction, if I can put it that way.
Sammy Wilson ... “Erskine May” makes it quite clear that someone should apply for an office under the Crown. Should I, as the Member for East Antrim, in a fit of despair when I see who will replace Gerry Adams, express publicly the view that I wished that I was not a Member of a House that contained such a person, would the Chancellor take that as an indication that I should no longer be a Member of this House and therefore appoint me to an office of the Crown? That seems to be the implication of the ruling that you have made.
Mr Speaker ...let me say that I have made the factual and legal position clear. The hon. Gentleman has raised a point of order, and it seems to me that the matter that he has raised—a matter relating to what could or could not now ensue—is essentially a hypothetical matter upon which it is neither necessary nor possible for a ruling to be made this evening. I believe that the position is clear: the disqualification has happened. If there are Members who are dissatisfied with the procedure—a very senior Member and others have indicated some level of dissatisfaction—it is perfectly open to them further to pursue the matter through other quarters, on other occasions, but I do not think that there is profit in dwelling further on them this evening. https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2011-01-26/debates/11012654000003/EuropeanUnionBill#404
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
Selby is the sort of town that has more gunsmiths than tattoo or knitted muesli shops. Also a very fine minster well worth visiting - think little Durham cathedral for its magnificent interior. I would be slow to bet against the Tories.
But why the resignation - is it part of a plan of attrition, or random acts?
I’m almost wondering if he doesn’t like the new candidate so is doing everything he can to screw up said candidates political career by killing it before it begins.
Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?
Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
The Chiltern Hundreds thing seems to have been forgotten about by the entire media. It's reminiscent of how king's (or queen's) consent was forgotten for a few decades too. The Guardian reported it as though they'd discovered this weird procedure that nobody had noticed before. Has anyone even pointed out that Johnson is insulting his constituents? Harriet Harman and other members of the Privileges Committee could be the worst devils in Westminster, but he was elected to represent his constituents, not them. Does he think his constituents would vote against him in a recall election solely because they're Harman's robots? He's got no guts.
Well he might stand in the by-election. I doubt he will, but if he's the honourable man he believes himself to be then he has to.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
by just lazily saying Putin at everything Lucky says, does it mean you don’t actually have an argument against every other each thing Lucky is saying?
Could be, could be. I wouldn't be the only one outwitted by PB's sharpest mind, would I?
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
The ABCs are swinging strongly against the Tories... look at the wipe outs on the Home County districts.
A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?
Only once the government has yourusername.
Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.
To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.
But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.
That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.
And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?
I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
October is my strong call too. Wish there was a 'by month' market on it.
It'd be a very interesting market. At the right price I'd have my eye on Jan 2025.
The full effect of falling energy price caps won't be felt in published inflation figures until this Autumn and (barring a radical new price shock) we will end up with negative energy price inflation in the CPI only until June 2024. It's easy to predict given the base effects in published inflation figures from 12 months earlier. So from the July 2024 CPI, published in August 2024, there should be a significant upward movement in the CPI again.
I think Sunak is planning to call the election in May 2024 or June but no later, on the back of much lower inflation. If it's later he will have to be desperate.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
Selby is the sort of town that has more gunsmiths than tattoo or knitted muesli shops. Also a very fine minster well worth visiting - think little Durham cathedral for its magnificent interior. I would be slow to bet against the Tories.
But why the resignation - is it part of a plan of attrition, or random acts?
Yes, I don’t see much potential for Selby changing hands.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
The ABCs are swinging strongly against the Tories... look at the wipe outs on the Home County districts.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
The current Tory government is grotesquely corrupt and utterly incompetent. Not voting Tory is the very definition of being nice to people.
A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?
Only once the government has yourusername.
Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.
To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.
But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.
That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.
And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?
I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
October is my strong call too. Wish there was a 'by month' market on it.
It'd be a very interesting market. At the right price I'd have my eye on Jan 2025.
The full effect of falling energy price caps won't be felt in published inflation figures until this Autumn and (barring a radical new price shock) we will end up with negative energy price inflation in the CPI only until June 2024. So from the July 2024 CPI, published in August 2024, there should be a significant upward movement in the CPI again.
I think Sunak is planning to call the election in May 2024 or June but no later, on the back of much lower inflation. If it's later he will have to be desperate.
Yep, inflation is like acceleration, people think it’s connected to speed and not the rate of change of the speed
I suspect that CO2 is similar. Perhaps many people think that 'cutting CO2 output' means there would be less CO2 in the atmosphere than before; and that 'net zero' means either none (we all die) or back to pre industrial levels.
At the moment not even any of this is being achieved. The output is gigantic and if anything rising. Which is why (if the science is correct) we are toast whatever happens in the next few years.
The only ways out are (a) the science is wrong (b) the next ice age arrives early (c) CO2 removal (Climeworks etc) can be scaled up about 10,000,000 times in a few years.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
by just lazily saying Putin at everything Lucky says, does it mean you don’t actually have an argument against every other each thing Lucky is saying?
every other each thing?
What sort of lingo is this?
The sort of higher plain of communication you can also achieve, if you manage the right combination of cocktails.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
The ABCs are swinging strongly against the Tories... look at the wipe outs on the Home County districts.
Sounds like LD territory. Potentially, anyway!
Sounds like Nick Palmer territory, PBs Sultan of swing 🤭
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
Selby is the sort of town that has more gunsmiths than tattoo or knitted muesli shops. Also a very fine minster well worth visiting - think little Durham cathedral for its magnificent interior. I would be slow to bet against the Tories.
But why the resignation - is it part of a plan of attrition, or random acts?
I've actually been to Selby station, back in 2018, by virtue of doing both the links between the ECML towards York and the Leeds-Hull line. Saw the swing bridge too.
"No one departs, no one arrives, From Selby to Goole, from St Erth to St Ives"
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
You have a hot tub but aren't a git? Hmm. Let me try and process.
42-carat plonker?
I'll take the 5th seeing as it's Rochdale.
I think sometimes my self-deprecating humour flies a little over people's heads.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
It's not quite as you depict. There have been more than enough changes in demographics of the constituency to move it from the Conservatives to... any of the three parties with a bit of effort. It'sone of those areas that acts as a feeder to lots of larger economically important centres, eg. Leeds.
A lot of those living in places like Sherburn in Elmet or Tadcaster commute either to Leeds or to York. They're college and university educated and gravitate towards the Liberals more than Labour. There are still some areas which are dyed in the wool Tory - think around Tockwith, Kirk Hammerton or the parts skirting Harrogate and Knaresborough. It's the areas around Eggborough, Drax, Chapel Haddesley, North Duffield which could be interesting. Some of these areas commute to other areas (Doncaster, Hull, Sheffield).
There are plenty of local issues at play that have never really been addressed properly: flooding around Selby can be an issue, especially in places to the north such as Cawood or to the south (such as closer to Snaith). The proposal for a new village to be built off the A19 close to Escrick and Stillingfleet has not been received well: the area is a massive flood plain and putting extra pressure on an already overworked A19 from Selby to York is only asking for trouble.
Would I bet against the Conservatives? No. Then again, this is one I wouldn't bet on. There are far too many issues and variables that could influence the outcome.
Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?
Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
The Chiltern Hundreds thing seems to have been forgotten about by the entire media. It's reminiscent of how king's (or queen's) consent was forgotten for a few decades too. The Guardian reported it as though they'd discovered this weird procedure that nobody had noticed before. Has anyone even pointed out that Johnson is insulting his constituents? Harriet Harman and other members of the Privileges Committee could be the worst devils in Westminster, but he was elected to represent his constituents, not them. Does he think his constituents would vote against him in a recall election solely because they're Harman's robots? He's got no guts.
I understand the Burnham Hundreds can be taken in exactly the same way. Other Hundreds are available.
But I will reduce the number of hundreds I type in this post, as Hundreds might be a trigger word for Ydoethur.
They got the information that Johnson was quitting just after the last question on Any Questions and announced it . I've never heard a more delighted audience
Inflation should be in a better place by Q1, and interest rates are likely to have peaked out and be falling too. Add a promise of a 2p tax cut, and May 24 is likely to be optimal for Sunak.
May 2nd is the date next year Tories will get the best result, any day after that will be a worse result. Doesn’t mean they be smart enough to call it for May.
Economically Interest rates won’t be any lower than they are today, growth will be one of the lowest of G20 nations, inflation will be lower due to energy prices, but the ongoing problem with underlying inflation may have it not much under 5%. A 2p tax cut is impossible, with public services and incomes, and borrowing and interest repayment figures in the state they will be in, a 2p tax cut would be a catastrophic political mistake on eve of the election. However, that money could cut other things creatively or ideologically. In the first bracket, not consolidated pay to the public sector, but a one off 2K handout, for private sector businesses taxes and NI cuts. In the second bracket inhesitance tax.
Halving inflation to 5% may sound good on paper, but what affect will that have on wage claims on the back of years of higher than 5% inflation eroding incomes? 4-5% inflation through first half of 2024 will be a massive issue for government to manage.
The economy will not come good to help this Tory government, that conversation is over, the conversation now is will the economy help or hinder Labour in a 2028 election. Just look at the borrowing, tax burden, debt repayments, struggling public services, hollowed out incomes and to top it all a struggling world economy predicting no growth for UK for the next FOUR YEARS - and I haven’t even mentioned Brexit.
economy not coming good to save this government, might not even come good to save the next one either.
It’s on politics and issues the Tory’s get best election result next May, before the summer of hell kicks in for them, such as boats, eroded incomes, lack of growth, a long dirty war of election campaign through summer 24 focussing on the promises of the 2019 Tory manifesto and Sunak’s own promises when he came to power 2 years before, benefits opponents.
Do you think an announcement next April that he'd stopped some all or most of the boats would win him even a single extra vote next May?
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
Selby is the sort of town that has more gunsmiths than tattoo or knitted muesli shops. Also a very fine minster well worth visiting - think little Durham cathedral for its magnificent interior. I would be slow to bet against the Tories.
But why the resignation - is it part of a plan of attrition, or random acts?
Yes, I don’t see much potential for Selby changing hands.
Electoral Calculus predicts a Labour gain, though they use a crude swingometer, so treat with caution:
They got the information that Johnson was quitting just after the last question on Any Questions and announced it . I've never heard a more delighted audience
Inflation should be in a better place by Q1, and interest rates are likely to have peaked out and be falling too. Add a promise of a 2p tax cut, and May 24 is likely to be optimal for Sunak.
May 2nd is the date next year Tories will get the best result, any day after that will be a worse result. Doesn’t mean they be smart enough to call it for May.
Economically Interest rates won’t be any lower than they are today, growth will be one of the lowest of G20 nations, inflation will be lower due to energy prices, but the ongoing problem with underlying inflation may have it not much under 5%. A 2p tax cut is impossible, with public services and incomes, and borrowing and interest repayment figures in the state they will be in, a 2p tax cut would be a catastrophic political mistake on eve of the election. However, that money could cut other things creatively or ideologically. In the first bracket, not consolidated pay to the public sector, but a one off 2K handout, for private sector businesses taxes and NI cuts. In the second bracket inhesitance tax.
Halving inflation to 5% may sound good on paper, but what affect will that have on wage claims on the back of years of higher than 5% inflation eroding incomes? 4-5% inflation through first half of 2024 will be a massive issue for government to manage.
The economy will not come good to help this Tory government, that conversation is over, the conversation now is will the economy help or hinder Labour in a 2028 election. Just look at the borrowing, tax burden, debt repayments, struggling public services, hollowed out incomes and to top it all a struggling world economy predicting no growth for UK for the next FOUR YEARS - and I haven’t even mentioned Brexit.
economy not coming good to save this government, might not even come good to save the next one either.
It’s on politics and issues the Tory’s get best election result next May, before the summer of hell kicks in for them, such as boats, eroded incomes, lack of growth, a long dirty war of election campaign through summer 24 focussing on the promises of the 2019 Tory manifesto and Sunak’s own promises when he came to power 2 years before, benefits opponents.
Do you think an announcement next April that he'd stopped some all or most of the boats would win him even a single extra vote next May?
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
by just lazily saying Putin at everything Lucky says, does it mean you don’t actually have an argument against every other each thing Lucky is saying?
every other each thing?
What sort of lingo is this?
The sort of higher plain of communication you can also achieve, if you manage the right combination of cocktails.
If you want a guaranteed like of respect and appreciation on PB, just mention the bender you are currently on 🤪
All ills are forgiven, even minor syntax and grammatical errors overlooked in support of ongoing alcohol intake.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
by just lazily saying Putin at everything Lucky says, does it mean you don’t actually have an argument against every other each thing Lucky is saying?
every other each thing?
What sort of lingo is this?
The sort of higher plain of communication you can also achieve, if you manage the right combination of cocktails.
If you want a guaranteed like of respect and appreciation on PB, just mention the bender you are currently on 🤪
All ills are forgiven, even minor syntax and grammatical errors overlooked in support of ongoing alcohol intake.
Cheer up MR - I've read many of your 10k posts. There's been the odd good point
They got the information that Johnson was quitting just after the last question on Any Questions and announced it . I've never heard a more delighted audience
Inflation should be in a better place by Q1, and interest rates are likely to have peaked out and be falling too. Add a promise of a 2p tax cut, and May 24 is likely to be optimal for Sunak.
May 2nd is the date next year Tories will get the best result, any day after that will be a worse result. Doesn’t mean they be smart enough to call it for May.
Economically Interest rates won’t be any lower than they are today, growth will be one of the lowest of G20 nations, inflation will be lower due to energy prices, but the ongoing problem with underlying inflation may have it not much under 5%. A 2p tax cut is impossible, with public services and incomes, and borrowing and interest repayment figures in the state they will be in, a 2p tax cut would be a catastrophic political mistake on eve of the election. However, that money could cut other things creatively or ideologically. In the first bracket, not consolidated pay to the public sector, but a one off 2K handout, for private sector businesses taxes and NI cuts. In the second bracket inhesitance tax.
Halving inflation to 5% may sound good on paper, but what affect will that have on wage claims on the back of years of higher than 5% inflation eroding incomes? 4-5% inflation through first half of 2024 will be a massive issue for government to manage.
The economy will not come good to help this Tory government, that conversation is over, the conversation now is will the economy help or hinder Labour in a 2028 election. Just look at the borrowing, tax burden, debt repayments, struggling public services, hollowed out incomes and to top it all a struggling world economy predicting no growth for UK for the next FOUR YEARS - and I haven’t even mentioned Brexit.
economy not coming good to save this government, might not even come good to save the next one either.
It’s on politics and issues the Tory’s get best election result next May, before the summer of hell kicks in for them, such as boats, eroded incomes, lack of growth, a long dirty war of election campaign through summer 24 focussing on the promises of the 2019 Tory manifesto and Sunak’s own promises when he came to power 2 years before, benefits opponents.
Do you think an announcement next April that he'd stopped some all or most of the boats would win him even a single extra vote next May?
Yes.
I think people in this country put a higher price on their votes than you think they do
They got the information that Johnson was quitting just after the last question on Any Questions and announced it . I've never heard a more delighted audience
Inflation should be in a better place by Q1, and interest rates are likely to have peaked out and be falling too. Add a promise of a 2p tax cut, and May 24 is likely to be optimal for Sunak.
May 2nd is the date next year Tories will get the best result, any day after that will be a worse result. Doesn’t mean they be smart enough to call it for May.
Economically Interest rates won’t be any lower than they are today, growth will be one of the lowest of G20 nations, inflation will be lower due to energy prices, but the ongoing problem with underlying inflation may have it not much under 5%. A 2p tax cut is impossible, with public services and incomes, and borrowing and interest repayment figures in the state they will be in, a 2p tax cut would be a catastrophic political mistake on eve of the election. However, that money could cut other things creatively or ideologically. In the first bracket, not consolidated pay to the public sector, but a one off 2K handout, for private sector businesses taxes and NI cuts. In the second bracket inhesitance tax.
Halving inflation to 5% may sound good on paper, but what affect will that have on wage claims on the back of years of higher than 5% inflation eroding incomes? 4-5% inflation through first half of 2024 will be a massive issue for government to manage.
The economy will not come good to help this Tory government, that conversation is over, the conversation now is will the economy help or hinder Labour in a 2028 election. Just look at the borrowing, tax burden, debt repayments, struggling public services, hollowed out incomes and to top it all a struggling world economy predicting no growth for UK for the next FOUR YEARS - and I haven’t even mentioned Brexit.
economy not coming good to save this government, might not even come good to save the next one either.
It’s on politics and issues the Tory’s get best election result next May, before the summer of hell kicks in for them, such as boats, eroded incomes, lack of growth, a long dirty war of election campaign through summer 24 focussing on the promises of the 2019 Tory manifesto and Sunak’s own promises when he came to power 2 years before, benefits opponents.
Do you think an announcement next April that he'd stopped some all or most of the boats would win him even a single extra vote next May?
Yes.
I think people in this country put a higher price on their votes than you think they do
Some people like different things than other people.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
by just lazily saying Putin at everything Lucky says, does it mean you don’t actually have an argument against every other each thing Lucky is saying?
every other each thing?
What sort of lingo is this?
The sort of higher plain of communication you can also achieve, if you manage the right combination of cocktails.
If you want a guaranteed like of respect and appreciation on PB, just mention the bender you are currently on 🤪
All ills are forgiven, even minor syntax and grammatical errors overlooked in support of ongoing alcohol intake.
Cheer up MR - I've read many of your 10k posts. There's been the odd good point
So the point of interest is clearly lower centre. And in the context you might imagine the left field to be something like Saturn. But there just aren't any odd conservatory windows near Saturn.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
I'm well aware there are plenty of decent well-minded Conservatives - I don't agree with them and will say so but I don't question their motives.
The vast majority of Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Green party members and activists are in it to improve the lot of their communities and their country. They genuinely think their way is the best way to improve the country so the disagreement isn't on ends but on means.
After the thick end of two decades of mostly universal popularity and being on the right side of most arguments, some Conservatives are now discovering what it's like to be really unpopular, to be, if not hated, then despised and they don't like it. The response, as we see in the Mail this morning, is to blame everyone else, the media, the "liberal elite", the "lefty civil servants", the "establishment", "remoaners", the "Wokerati" etc, etc ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
As with the ludicrous antics of Trump, the notion people like Johnson, Truss and others like them might have played some small part in their own demise would shatter their delusion of infallibility.
Johnson's route back might begin with a bit of mea culpa and a generous helping of humility.
It has just been voted “Americas most beloved building”
No googling!
Fallingwater.
Its most distinctive point being that - like everything built by FLW - it is prone to falling down and having budget inflation like the Scottish Parliament and the Palace of Westminster tart-up..
Selby and Ainsty, presuming a significant movement from Cons to Lib Dems then this seat has all the potential for being a three way marginal. Greens may surprise, they have competed at a local level in most wards. They could detract from the Labour vote.
I see from Tomorrow's MPs that some CLPs are having a tantrum about that Driscoll chap. All seems very self defeating.
Labour Party in Blyth Valley have joined those constituency parties refusing to nominate in North East mayoral selection process, in protest at exclusion of Jamie Driscoll.
Calgie @christiancalgie EXCLUSIVE: A frontrunner to be the Tory candidate for London mayor, Samuel Kasumu, has been blocked and has not even made the candidate long list.
His team is accusing CCHQ of blocking him because of close links to Boris Johnson.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
by just lazily saying Putin at everything Lucky says, does it mean you don’t actually have an argument against every other each thing Lucky is saying?
every other each thing?
What sort of lingo is this?
The sort of higher plain of communication you can also achieve, if you manage the right combination of cocktails.
If you want a guaranteed like of respect and appreciation on PB, just mention the bender you are currently on 🤪
All ills are forgiven, even minor syntax and grammatical errors overlooked in support of ongoing alcohol intake.
Cheer up MR - I've read many of your 10k posts. There's been the odd good point
Since we are all over Lord Frith today, you do know that E J Davey Esq once played El Ahrairah in a production of Watership Down, so you are required to consider voting LD.
It has just been voted “Americas most beloved building”
No googling!
Fallingwater.
Bingo. Frank Lloyd Wright’s Fallingwater. It is genuinely stunning
Never been there, but I agree it is a seminal design. In general I rate more modest buildings higher - especially FLW's Usonian houses - as being more practical and accessible.
Calgie @christiancalgie EXCLUSIVE: A frontrunner to be the Tory candidate for London mayor, Samuel Kasumu, has been blocked and has not even made the candidate long list.
His team is accusing CCHQ of blocking him because of close links to Boris Johnson.
Tough titties mate.
Yes, its factional, but complaints of this nature ultimately boil down to a sense of entitlement to be on a list. If he'd made the list and then not got it no doubt he'd be complaining on the same basis - so why not just exclude him now?
Just about on topic- I was in Ainsty House in my 1960s grammar school. For a time I had an account with the Upper Agbrigg Savings Bank - another wapentake. There appear to be two explanations for the name; 1. different communities would get together at a recognised meeting point to discuss an issue and would lay their weapons down and then take them up again at the end; 2. decisions would be taken by waving weapons in the air. I prefer the former.
Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?
Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
The Chiltern Hundreds thing seems to have been forgotten about by the entire media. It's reminiscent of how king's (or queen's) consent was forgotten for a few decades too. The Guardian reported it as though they'd discovered this weird procedure that nobody had noticed before. Has anyone even pointed out that Johnson is insulting his constituents? Harriet Harman and other members of the Privileges Committee could be the worst devils in Westminster, but he was elected to represent his constituents, not them. Does he think his constituents would vote against him in a recall election solely because they're Harman's robots? He's got no guts.
I understand the Burnham Hundreds can be taken in exactly the same way. Other Hundreds are available.
But I will reduce the number of hundreds I type in this post, as Hundreds might be a trigger word for Ydoethur.
I'm OK with hundreds, be they Chiltern, Botloe, Harris or Foakes. I normally call the first ones 'cantrefau' as a good Welshman but the principle is the same.
Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?
Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
The Chiltern Hundreds thing seems to have been forgotten about by the entire media. It's reminiscent of how king's (or queen's) consent was forgotten for a few decades too. The Guardian reported it as though they'd discovered this weird procedure that nobody had noticed before. Has anyone even pointed out that Johnson is insulting his constituents? Harriet Harman and other members of the Privileges Committee could be the worst devils in Westminster, but he was elected to represent his constituents, not them. Does he think his constituents would vote against him in a recall election solely because they're Harman's robots? He's got no guts.
I understand the Burnham Hundreds can be taken in exactly the same way. Other Hundreds are available.
But I will reduce the number of hundreds I type in this post, as Hundreds might be a trigger word for Ydoethur.
Chafford Hundred is the station serving Lakeside Shopping Centre.
Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?
Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
The Chiltern Hundreds thing seems to have been forgotten about by the entire media. It's reminiscent of how king's (or queen's) consent was forgotten for a few decades too. The Guardian reported it as though they'd discovered this weird procedure that nobody had noticed before. Has anyone even pointed out that Johnson is insulting his constituents? Harriet Harman and other members of the Privileges Committee could be the worst devils in Westminster, but he was elected to represent his constituents, not them. Does he think his constituents would vote against him in a recall election solely because they're Harman's robots? He's got no guts.
I understand the Burnham Hundreds can be taken in exactly the same way. Other Hundreds are available.
But I will reduce the number of hundreds I type in this post, as Hundreds might be a trigger word for Ydoethur.
I don’t care how many hundreds there are as long as the Aussies don’t score any in the Ashes.
Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?
Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
The Chiltern Hundreds thing seems to have been forgotten about by the entire media. It's reminiscent of how king's (or queen's) consent was forgotten for a few decades too. The Guardian reported it as though they'd discovered this weird procedure that nobody had noticed before. Has anyone even pointed out that Johnson is insulting his constituents? Harriet Harman and other members of the Privileges Committee could be the worst devils in Westminster, but he was elected to represent his constituents, not them. Does he think his constituents would vote against him in a recall election solely because they're Harman's robots? He's got no guts.
I understand the Burnham Hundreds can be taken in exactly the same way. Other Hundreds are available.
But I will reduce the number of hundreds I type in this post, as Hundreds might be a trigger word for Ydoethur.
I don’t care how many hundreds there are as long as the Aussies don’t score any in the Ashes.
It has just been voted “Americas most beloved building”
No googling!
Fallingwater.
Its most distinctive point being that - like everything built by FLW - it is prone to falling down and having budget inflation like the Scottish Parliament and the Palace of Westminster tart-up..
Or in this case series balcony droop.
He was given a piece of land with a stream and a forest, so he built it in the only place where you can't properly see the stream - but can hear it. Very innovative, and probably good for keeping a cool microclimate in this warming age.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
I'm well aware there are plenty of decent well-minded Conservatives - I don't agree with them and will say so but I don't question their motives.
The vast majority of Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Green party members and activists are in it to improve the lot of their communities and their country. They genuinely think their way is the best way to improve the country so the disagreement isn't on ends but on means.
After the thick end of two decades of mostly universal popularity and being on the right side of most arguments, some Conservatives are now discovering what it's like to be really unpopular, to be, if not hated, then despised and they don't like it. The response, as we see in the Mail this morning, is to blame everyone else, the media, the "liberal elite", the "lefty civil servants", the "establishment", "remoaners", the "Wokerati" etc, etc ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
As with the ludicrous antics of Trump, the notion people like Johnson, Truss and others like them might have played some small part in their own demise would shatter their delusion of infallibility.
Johnson's route back might begin with a bit of mea culpa and a generous helping of humility.
And the generation of Conservatives who did the long hard slog to get a hearing from the public again, let alone the ones who experienced the public derision in the run-up to 1997, are all gone or irrelevant.
Maybe it's a lesson each cohort of politicos has to learn for themselves the hard way.
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?
Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
The Chiltern Hundreds thing seems to have been forgotten about by the entire media. It's reminiscent of how king's (or queen's) consent was forgotten for a few decades too. The Guardian reported it as though they'd discovered this weird procedure that nobody had noticed before. Has anyone even pointed out that Johnson is insulting his constituents? Harriet Harman and other members of the Privileges Committee could be the worst devils in Westminster, but he was elected to represent his constituents, not them. Does he think his constituents would vote against him in a recall election solely because they're Harman's robots? He's got no guts.
Brits in general are remarkably ignorant regarding the workings of the British "constitution".
And journos tend to be more remarkably ignorant than average, except maybe about factoids they stumble upon in course of business.
As for the "insulting his constituents" argument, even as a certified (and certifiable) anti-BoJoite, hard for me to follow your logic. Even IF he makes a chicken run to bluer pastures.
The real insult was Boris claiming he sincerely wished to represent ANYBODY except himself, certainly NOT his "constituents".
As for THEM, by electing an obvious Con-jobber and land pirate as their MP, well THEY gave the traditional UKer two-fingered salute (just one in USA) to the rest of the UK.
Re: MPs taking office of (no) profit as Stewards of either the Chiltern Hundreds or Manor of Northstead, as you can see from following links, the idea that this rather quaint system is limited to two by-elections at a time, is NOT true:
Leon is not far from the old National Road. Which more-or-less followed the route hacked out of the wilderness by Gen. Braddock and his fellow hapless Brits (and colonials including George Washington and Daniel Boone) on their was to getting massacred by French & Indians just before they got to their objective - Fort Duquene.
The latter commemorated in Pittsburgh's local Duquene Beer.
As in classic "boilermaker" - shot of whiskey with "Duke" chaser.
It has just been voted “Americas most beloved building”
No googling!
Fallingwater.
Bingo. Frank Lloyd Wright’s Fallingwater. It is genuinely stunning
Never been there, but I agree it is a seminal design. In general I rate more modest buildings higher - especially FLW's Usonian houses - as being more practical and accessible.
The interior is iconic but a tad claustrophobic
Apparently the idea is to force you to look - or, better, go - outside. There is as much terrace as interior space
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware. They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally. But it wasn't this Selby. That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University. This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate. Not the same thing at all. Bet accordingly.
Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
It's not quite as you depict. There have been more than enough changes in demographics of the constituency to move it from the Conservatives to... any of the three parties with a bit of effort. It'sone of those areas that acts as a feeder to lots of larger economically important centres, eg. Leeds.
A lot of those living in places like Sherburn in Elmet or Tadcaster commute either to Leeds or to York. They're college and university educated and gravitate towards the Liberals more than Labour. There are still some areas which are dyed in the wool Tory - think around Tockwith, Kirk Hammerton or the parts skirting Harrogate and Knaresborough. It's the areas around Eggborough, Drax, Chapel Haddesley, North Duffield which could be interesting. Some of these areas commute to other areas (Doncaster, Hull, Sheffield).
There are plenty of local issues at play that have never really been addressed properly: flooding around Selby can be an issue, especially in places to the north such as Cawood or to the south (such as closer to Snaith). The proposal for a new village to be built off the A19 close to Escrick and Stillingfleet has not been received well: the area is a massive flood plain and putting extra pressure on an already overworked A19 from Selby to York is only asking for trouble.
Would I bet against the Conservatives? No. Then again, this is one I wouldn't bet on. There are far too many issues and variables that could influence the outcome.
Yes you’re right. I was making a sweeping generalisation. I have family in Sherburn, it’s precisely as you describe. Lots of new housing full of well paid, younger, professional types with young families and two nice SUVs on the drive.
But whether it’s enough to get the Cons out I don’t know. They’ll be angry at their mortgages and food and everything else rising, they’ll have grown up enjoying freedom of movement, they’ll be socially liberal. Starmer won’t scare them. Will they vote tactically?
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
Yeah but with who?
With likely Republican primary voters.
Other voters are in every sense a secondary consideration now.
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
Yeah but with who?
With likely Republican primary voters.
Timothy Snyder was on R4 this morning saying Trump was getting a boost with those already likely to vote for him but the independents/non-aligned were still turned off. I hope he’s right.
Leon is not far from the old National Road. Which more-or-less followed the route hacked out of the wilderness by Gen. Braddock and his fellow hapless Brits (and colonials including George Washington and Daniel Boone) on their was to getting massacred by French & Indians just before they got to their objective - Fort Duquene.
The latter commemorated in Pittsburgh's local Duquene Beer.
As in classic "boilermaker" - shot of whiskey with "Duke" chaser.
Isn't Fort Duquesne preserved as the old blockhouse in that rather nice public park where the Ohio and Monongahela Rivers meet in the centre of Pittsburgh? Was there for a conference years ago.
Returning to the subject of local specialities, Pittsburgh has the Primanti Bros sandwich, which is really not bad. The secret ingredient is their coleslaw.
For those wondering about why now for the UAP flap in the states (ok, basically just (@Leon ) see this for some of the back story of those making shit up/reporting the greatest story ever.
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
Yeah but with who?
With likely Republican primary voters.
Other voters are in every sense a secondary consideration now.
Mainly and mostly. (Is there a difference?)
However, a segment of likely GOP primary electorate that is not (already) reflexively anti-Trump, IS concerned about actually winning the presidential AND other general elections.
So still need to see how this all gestates during next nine months . . .
Leon is not far from the old National Road. Which more-or-less followed the route hacked out of the wilderness by Gen. Braddock and his fellow hapless Brits (and colonials including George Washington and Daniel Boone) on their was to getting massacred by French & Indians just before they got to their objective - Fort Duquene.
The latter commemorated in Pittsburgh's local Duquene Beer.
As in classic "boilermaker" - shot of whiskey with "Duke" chaser.
Isn't Fort Duquesne preserved as the old blockhouse in that rather nice public park where the Ohio and Monongahela Rivers meet in the centre of Pittsburgh? Was there for a conference years ago.
Yes! Have in my possession a glass model of that blockhouse, a commemorative produced by local foundry.
It has just been voted “Americas most beloved building”
No googling!
Taliesin?
Dammit, wrong Frank Lloyd Wright house!
Great guess in correct ball park.
However, when I saw you surmise, knew the correct answer; because Leon said he was on the way to Pennsylvania NOT Wisconsin.
Thank you. I was biting my lip. I used to know all this stuff, back when I had a memory. Couldn't pass a test now of course, and even then it was enthusiast-level only, but...well, the hopes of long ago. Still hope to do this:
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
Yeah but with who?
With likely Republican primary voters.
Timothy Snyder was on R4 this morning saying Trump was getting a boost with those already likely to vote for him but the independents/non-aligned were still turned off. I hope he’s right.
I really fail to see how you could be neutral or hostile to Trump and then, looking at the last few days, suddenly think "actually, yeah, I like the cut of this guy's jib"
If you're indifferent to Trump, you might still be turned off by the glee of his enemies.
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
Yeah but with who?
With likely Republican primary voters.
Timothy Snyder was on R4 this morning saying Trump was getting a boost with those already likely to vote for him but the independents/non-aligned were still turned off. I hope he’s right.
I really fail to see how you could be neutral or hostile to Trump and then, looking at the last few days, suddenly think "actually, yeah, I like the cut of this guy's jib"
Not that, methinks.
Rather, a rallying around a "leader" in whom they harbor serious doubts, but still support in "principle".
So firming up support that's been fraying - NOT attracting new support.
A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
Being indicted is - so far - BOOSTING polling for Sage of Mar-a-Lardo aka former Security-Risk-in-Chief.
Comments
Exclusive: Failure to follow new rules on fruit levels will mean British firms won’t be able to sell existing products as jam in Europe
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/10/uk-jam-makers-face-recipe-changes-eu-breakfast-directives/ (£££)
Ironically, this is the sort of story with which Boris made his name as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent.
What sort of lingo is this?
Ultimately the Speaker seems to have taken the view that people need to calm the heck down, and that someone who wanted to quit was appointed so its fine, and a hypothetical 'frustrated' resignation someone wanted to take back didn't need getting into.
Hilary Benn
...There is quite an important issue here about the nature of an application, because if, for the sake of argument, a Member were to express the view that they might feel like resigning from the House, the Chancellor might then appoint them and they would find themselves disqualified. Surely there must be a clear procedure for making it transparent that the Member in question has applied for the Chiltern Hundreds. The question that is being asked—a question to which the House would like an answer—is: was an application made in this case specifically for the Chiltern Hundreds which then led the Chancellor of the Exchequer to make the appointment, and was it accepted?
Mr Speaker
... the matter to which he has just referred—whether an application for the Chiltern Hundreds has been made—is, I am afraid, not a matter for me. The matter has been addressed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the execution of his responsibilities, and this is one of those occasions on which it is right for me to communicate the facts of the situation, but not to wallow in the realms of metaphysical abstraction, if I can put it that way.
Sammy Wilson
... “Erskine May” makes it quite clear that someone should apply for an office under the Crown. Should I, as the Member for East Antrim, in a fit of despair when I see who will replace Gerry Adams, express publicly the view that I wished that I was not a Member of a House that contained such a person, would the Chancellor take that as an indication that I should no longer be a Member of this House and therefore appoint me to an office of the Crown? That seems to be the implication of the ruling that you have made.
Mr Speaker
...let me say that I have made the factual and legal position clear. The hon. Gentleman has raised a point of order, and it seems to me that the matter that he has raised—a matter relating to what could or could not now ensue—is essentially a hypothetical matter upon which it is neither necessary nor possible for a ruling to be made this evening. I believe that the position is clear: the disqualification has happened. If there are Members who are dissatisfied with the procedure—a very senior Member and others have indicated some level of dissatisfaction—it is perfectly open to them further to pursue the matter through other quarters, on other occasions, but I do not think that there is profit in dwelling further on them this evening.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2011-01-26/debates/11012654000003/EuropeanUnionBill#404
It’s not clear yet if it means price increases for customers.
It could be explosive. Or subscription might just be a handful of Man U, New U, Brighton Arsenal and West H fans mad enough to be exploited.
Dear GF will be one of those, and she’s paying for Arsenal, I can follow Newcastle. ⚽️
But you would be one of the first.
I think Sunak is planning to call the election in May 2024 or June but no later, on the back of much lower inflation. If it's later he will have to be desperate.
At the moment not even any of this is being achieved. The output is gigantic and if anything rising. Which is why (if the science is correct) we are toast whatever happens in the next few years.
The only ways out are
(a) the science is wrong
(b) the next ice age arrives early
(c) CO2 removal (Climeworks etc) can be scaled up about 10,000,000 times in a few years.
"No one departs, no one arrives, From Selby to Goole, from St Erth to St Ives"
(The Slow Train)
A lot of those living in places like Sherburn in Elmet or Tadcaster commute either to Leeds or to York. They're college and university educated and gravitate towards the Liberals more than Labour. There are still some areas which are dyed in the wool Tory - think around Tockwith, Kirk Hammerton or the parts skirting Harrogate and Knaresborough. It's the areas around Eggborough, Drax, Chapel Haddesley, North Duffield which could be interesting. Some of these areas commute to other areas (Doncaster, Hull, Sheffield).
There are plenty of local issues at play that have never really been addressed properly: flooding around Selby can be an issue, especially in places to the north such as Cawood or to the south (such as closer to Snaith). The proposal for a new village to be built off the A19 close to Escrick and Stillingfleet has not been received well: the area is a massive flood plain and putting extra pressure on an already overworked A19 from Selby to York is only asking for trouble.
Would I bet against the Conservatives? No. Then again, this is one I wouldn't bet on. There are far too many issues and variables that could influence the outcome.
But I will reduce the number of hundreds I type in this post, as Hundreds might be a trigger word for Ydoethur.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Selby and Ainsty
where am I? There are enough clues in here to guess
Should be read in conjunction with the bad news part.
All ills are forgiven, even minor syntax and grammatical errors overlooked in support of ongoing alcohol intake.
Again this is a genuine clue (it’s a ceiling)
What's not to like?
Let's have 10% more cocoa solids in chocolate, too.
It has just been voted “Americas most beloved building”
No googling!
@tomorrowsmps
·
1h
🔵MID BEDFORDSHIRE: Stephen James is on the CCHQ candidates' list and thinking of applying.
So, playing with the AI.
The vast majority of Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Green party members and activists are in it to improve the lot of their communities and their country. They genuinely think their way is the best way to improve the country so the disagreement isn't on ends but on means.
After the thick end of two decades of mostly universal popularity and being on the right side of most arguments, some Conservatives are now discovering what it's like to be really unpopular, to be, if not hated, then despised and they don't like it. The response, as we see in the Mail this morning, is to blame everyone else, the media, the "liberal elite", the "lefty civil servants", the "establishment", "remoaners", the "Wokerati" etc, etc ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
As with the ludicrous antics of Trump, the notion people like Johnson, Truss and others like them might have played some small part in their own demise would shatter their delusion of infallibility.
Johnson's route back might begin with a bit of mea culpa and a generous helping of humility.
Or in this case series balcony droop.
Labour Party in Blyth Valley have joined those constituency parties refusing to nominate in North East mayoral selection process, in protest at exclusion of Jamie Driscoll.
Calgie
@christiancalgie
EXCLUSIVE: A frontrunner to be the Tory candidate for London mayor, Samuel Kasumu, has been blocked and has not even made the candidate long list.
His team is accusing CCHQ of blocking him because of close links to Boris Johnson.
On topic, are we done with the Boris come back talk now?
Yes, its factional, but complaints of this nature ultimately boil down to a sense of entitlement to be on a list. If he'd made the list and then not got it no doubt he'd be complaining on the same basis - so why not just exclude him now?
It's the Hundred I can't stand.
Maybe it's a lesson each cohort of politicos has to learn for themselves the hard way.
And journos tend to be more remarkably ignorant than average, except maybe about factoids they stumble upon in course of business.
As for the "insulting his constituents" argument, even as a certified (and certifiable) anti-BoJoite, hard for me to follow your logic. Even IF he makes a chicken run to bluer pastures.
The real insult was Boris claiming he sincerely wished to represent ANYBODY except himself, certainly NOT his "constituents".
As for THEM, by electing an obvious Con-jobber and land pirate as their MP, well THEY gave the traditional UKer two-fingered salute (just one in USA) to the rest of the UK.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stewards_of_the_Chiltern_Hundreds
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stewards_of_the_Manor_of_Northstead
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_from_the_House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom
Leon is not far from the old National Road. Which more-or-less followed the route hacked out of the wilderness by Gen. Braddock and his fellow hapless Brits (and colonials including George Washington and Daniel Boone) on their was to getting massacred by French & Indians just before they got to their objective - Fort Duquene.
The latter commemorated in Pittsburgh's local Duquene Beer.
As in classic "boilermaker" - shot of whiskey with "Duke" chaser.
Apparently the idea is to force you to look - or, better, go - outside. There is as much terrace as interior space
But whether it’s enough to get the Cons out I don’t know. They’ll be angry at their mortgages and food and everything else rising, they’ll have grown up enjoying freedom of movement, they’ll be socially liberal. Starmer won’t scare them. Will they vote tactically?
It’s going to be interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_Study_Houses
However, when I saw you surmise, knew the correct answer; because Leon said he was on the way to Pennsylvania NOT Wisconsin.
All five of the higher ones ended in either draws or defeat
(654/4 - draw
451 all out - lost
450/7 - draw
450 all out - lost
445 all out - lost)
https://www.thrillist.com/amphtml/eat/pittsburgh/why-pittsburgh-loves-french-fries-on-its-sandwiches
https://theintrinsicperspective.com/p/the-ufo-craze-was-created-by-government
However, a segment of likely GOP primary electorate that is not (already) reflexively anti-Trump, IS concerned about actually winning the presidential AND other general elections.
So still need to see how this all gestates during next nine months . . .
Right at the tip of the Golden Triangle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farnsworth_House
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNckyRjFBMg
Rather, a rallying around a "leader" in whom they harbor serious doubts, but still support in "principle".
So firming up support that's been fraying - NOT attracting new support.