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The public support Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited June 2023 in General
The public support Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

SNAP POLL62% say it was right for Boris Johnson to resignhttps://t.co/fzYVIV3bRm65% think he knowingly misled Parliament on Partygatehttps://t.co/LPyKAeE6GE72% think it likely he committed further COVID offenceshttps://t.co/6V4ylWcgBB pic.twitter.com/GpWwArXPR6

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Comments

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited June 2023
    Not first, like Boris in the selection race for Mid Beds.

    Edit, I was first, therefore ruining my lame gag.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Nigelb said:

    Good thread, setting out very clearly the Johnsonian dishonesty.

    This isn't a resignation statement; it's a temper tantrum.

    And its central claim is untrue.

    Johnson says he was "forced out anti-democratically" by a "kangaroo court".

    So let's remind ourselves of the process from which he has chosen to run away... 🧵

    https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1667285583985537024

    Boris is effectively saying that the entire House of Commons, where his party has an overwhelming majority, is a kangaroo court biased against him.

    And that the public could not override that kangaroo court and return him even if it was.

    It's classic Boris - superficially confident blustering which strikes the right note of outrage at 'enemies' to garner plenty of support, despite being nonsense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Boris needs to trust the public more - why does he think they would not see a biased and unfair process as biased and unfair and return him to office in the event of a recall election?

    Wouldn't that be a better way of sticking it to the devil Harman?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    FPT
    Ghedebrav said:

    Champions League Final tonight, though I don’t have BT sport so won’t be watching!

    Actually hotter in Manchester than in Istanbul right now, remarkably.

    It's free on their Youtube channel
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    On Topic. “What an exciting night it will be.”

    What a hideous few days of media narrative it could be for Sunak.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    All because the Royals want their egos polishing.

    A number of soldiers have fainted today during the Prince of Wales’ Colonel’s Review at the Horse Guards Parade ahead of the King’s Birthday Parade.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1667496451771887616
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    On Topic. “What an exciting night it will be.”

    What a hideous few days of media narrative it could be for Sunak.

    The very fact many are happening at once may make the ones potentially winnable very hard to hold.

    He's screwed - he will look weak and defeated, and too many agree with Boris for him to be able to call it a strop and say it is a time for renewal.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited June 2023
    When I lived in York’s South Bank in 1997, Selby was a marginal, I lived just over the boundary that ran across the Knavesmire IIRC. Very disappointed not to have had a vote that counted. The new constituency must have very different boundaries
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only 4? There were FIFTEEN in NI during January 1986.
    Yeah, but in Northern Ireland, we're talking about proper countries.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    FPT

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only 4? There were FIFTEEN in NI during January 1986.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    CatMan said:

    FPT

    Ghedebrav said:

    Champions League Final tonight, though I don’t have BT sport so won’t be watching!

    Actually hotter in Manchester than in Istanbul right now, remarkably.

    It's free on their Youtube channel
    GF added BT sport to our sky channel when Arsenal got in Europe a few years ago. But BT have given up on European football, we need to cancel them tomorrow and get something else? Trotter Independent Traders Football Exclusives isn’t it next season
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    On Topic. “What an exciting night it will be.”

    What a hideous few days of media narrative it could be for Sunak.

    Indeed.
    Though holding two of them isn't beyond the realms of possibilities.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
  • Where the hell is Ainsty?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    CatMan said:

    FPT

    Ghedebrav said:

    Champions League Final tonight, though I don’t have BT sport so won’t be watching!

    Actually hotter in Manchester than in Istanbul right now, remarkably.

    It's free on their Youtube channel
    Oh really? Nice one!
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    FPT for @Ghedebrav in case it was missed…
    Ghedebrav said:

    Champions League Final tonight, though I don’t have BT sport so won’t be watching!

    Actually hotter in Manchester than in Istanbul right now, remarkably.

    It’s free to watch on the BT Sport YouTube channel mate
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Where the hell is Ainsty?

    It's the Ainsty of York. An ancient wapentake.
    Obviously.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Where the hell is Ainsty?

    Near Selby?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    On Topic. “What an exciting night it will be.”

    What a hideous few days of media narrative it could be for Sunak.

    According to Wikipedia when I looked this morning, CON had 352 seats. 351 now (these exclude the by elections which are treated as 'vacant'). Still 52 maj.

    Rishi needs to call the by elections now, all on one date in July, get the pain over with!

    (Maybe he should wait until Monday in case any more go 😈).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Starmer's fortunes turned when he scapped a by-election hold after Labour had lost a few. Maybe Sunak can turn things around by clinging on in one or two seats where he is defending 20k majorities.

    Nah, I don't buy it either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Where the hell is Ainsty?

    I disagree with the BCE on a lot, but their quixotic and inconsistent naming conventions are a source of delight.


    Apparently a wapentake is a hundred.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    All because the Royals want their egos polishing.

    A number of soldiers have fainted today during the Prince of Wales’ Colonel’s Review at the Horse Guards Parade ahead of the King’s Birthday Parade.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1667496451771887616

    I think if your post read 'a number of soldiers have died', I would be inclined to back it. If it read 'a number of horses have died', it would get my sympathies'. Not sure them fainting has the same emotional heft.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only 4? There were FIFTEEN in NI during January 1986.
    Yeah, but in Northern Ireland, we're talking about proper countries.
    Well, the UK isn't a proper country, quite a few of us would agree.
  • dixiedean said:

    Where the hell is Ainsty?

    It's the Ainsty of York. An ancient wapentake.
    Obviously.
    Skyrack is my favourite wapentake. Never heard of Ainsty.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    The current make up of the.... wow.
    Wikipedia has the Conservatives on 351. 3 vacant, which will be Adams, Dorries and Johnson.
    There is the SNP lady, Ferrier, who is likely to face a by-election too.

    I hadn't realised the Conservatives had dropped so much from 365.

    But still. It would take 25 further Conservative MPs resigning to even think about being close to losing a majority (and Sinn Fein, Speaker etc). However, fighting 25-30 by-elections all at once isn't ideal.

    I can't see more than a few further resignations. Fabricant, JRM...... that's probably it.... (Truss?)

    Sunak won't be happy, but he can ride it through.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,411

    On Topic. “What an exciting night it will be.”

    What a hideous few days of media narrative it could be for Sunak.

    Don't think so - the defeats (which is most likely) can be laid at Johnson's door and, Sunak's attitude can probably be best summed up as 'good riddance'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    The current make up of the.... wow.
    Wikipedia has the Conservatives on 351. 3 vacant, which will be Adams, Dorries and Johnson.
    There is the SNP lady, Ferrier, who is likely to face a by-election too.

    I hadn't realised the Conservatives had dropped so much from 365.

    But still. It would take 25 further Conservative MPs resigning to even think about being close to losing a majority (and Sinn Fein, Speaker etc). However, fighting 25-30 by-elections all at once isn't ideal.

    I can't see more than a few further resignations. Fabricant, JRM...... that's probably it.... (Truss?)

    Sunak won't be happy, but he can ride it through.
    I'm thinking less about when the majority becomes threatened - which would still take a lot - and more at what point they come to believe it will only get worse, and that the hope of recovery is misplaced.

    I'm not sure that day will come - they will cling to the possibility they can claw things back and the economy rebounds and people are greateful for a cynical tax cut right before an election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Incidentally, we're only a few weeks away from the confirmation of the new parliamentary boundaries.
  • kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    kle4 said:

    Incidentally, we're only a few weeks away from the confirmation of the new parliamentary boundaries.

    You’re assuming they will disregard entirely the representations from the last round of consultation?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    If this continues, could they bring down the Government without personally having done so? Quite a clever tactic?

    What does it need? 29 more of them?

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-ally-nigel-adams-to-stand-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect-triggering-third-by-election-12899994


    Assuming that's not realistic, the way the public will view this is one of utter and absolute chaos. The Conservative Party is falling apart.

    We need a General Election. The clamour for one may grow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    History suggests it would be longer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Incidentally, we're only a few weeks away from the confirmation of the new parliamentary boundaries.

    You’re assuming they will disregard entirely the representations from the last round of consultation?
    Well, they might make a few minor tweaks, but I think it'll be broadly set. I'm not sure if they have the power to make minor changes to the proposals without having to undertake a further consultation.

    My comments to them were mostly around saying they'd done a reasonable job, and begging them not to take the easy route and put in place boring names to appease moaners upset that not every town or village is listed in an area, and ending up with something like Mid-Bedfordshire.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    This is chaos
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    ''Are we about to see open civil war within the Conservative Party?'

    Rob Watson, UK political correspondent, has told BBC News that Nigel Adams was often described as “the unofficial chief of staff”, an absolute loyalist to Boris Johnson.

    He then asked: “Are we about to see open civil war within the Conservative Party?”

    Watson went on to say that looking at the state of the economy and high levels of inflation, it is hard to think of anything worse for Rishi Sunak than having to have three by-elections.

    “Inevitably they always turn out to be mini popularity tests for the government,” Watson added.

    But what does this latest resignation mean for the pm?

    Watson answered: “Johnson has declared war on him, he needs to consider if he wants to declare war back on him. There is one question now: Is a civil war within the ruling party preventable?”

    bbc website


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Heathener said:

    This is chaos

    At least it's not chaos with Ed Miliband or a coalition of chaos with Jeremy Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.

    That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.

    And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?

    I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I have money on an election this year, which I've written off as a betting loss.

    Maybe not!
  • IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    History suggests it would be longer.
    I agree. Hence my use of "could". But the one thing most of us have to come realise - especially in the past decade - is that politicians think neither logically nor rationally. A 5 year gamble would easily become a 10 year walk of self-discovery in the wilderness.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    All because the Royals want their egos polishing.

    A number of soldiers have fainted today during the Prince of Wales’ Colonel’s Review at the Horse Guards Parade ahead of the King’s Birthday Parade.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1667496451771887616

    You are evidentially not a military man, or you would understand that soldiers look forward to their Colonel’s review.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2023
    It seems difficult to believe this mini-rebellion (which is what it is) will draw in the semi-sensible like Alok Sharma and Ian Jack.

    Regardless, those that think this is somehow good for Rishi Sunak need to wake up and smell the covfefe.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    All because the Royals want their egos polishing.

    A number of soldiers have fainted today during the Prince of Wales’ Colonel’s Review at the Horse Guards Parade ahead of the King’s Birthday Parade.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1667496451771887616

    You are evidentially not a military man, or you would understand that soldiers look forward to their Colonel’s review.
    Maybe they should stop wearing dead animals on their heads and they wouldn't get so hot!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Heathener said:

    I have money on an election this year, which I've written off as a betting loss.

    Maybe not!

    I think little chance.

    Boris has been a little unfairly dealt with it seems, although the report may change that. (And anyway it's his own stupid and ego-centric fault if he has finished up that way)

    Hattie may well have chosen her moment.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Regarding elections.

    Inflation should be in a better place by Q1, and interest rates are likely to have peaked out and be falling too.
    Add a promise of a 2p tax cut, and May 24 is likely to be optimal for Sunak.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    What this is doing, if we didn’t know already, is demonstrating the Tory Party has given up being a serious party of government and is now preparing itself for the opposition bloodletting and fight for its future direction.

    A GE can’t come soon enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only 4? There were FIFTEEN in NI during January 1986.
    Yeah, but in Northern Ireland, we're talking about proper countries.
    Well, the UK isn't a proper country, quite a few of us would agree.
    Well, I walked right into that one.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Regarding elections.

    Inflation should be in a better place by Q1, and interest rates are likely to have peaked out and be falling too.
    Add a promise of a 2p tax cut, and May 24 is likely to be optimal for Sunak.

    Absolutely. And going in May 2024 would avoid the impression of 'hanging on to the last minute'.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    The current make up of the.... wow.
    Wikipedia has the Conservatives on 351. 3 vacant, which will be Adams, Dorries and Johnson.
    There is the SNP lady, Ferrier, who is likely to face a by-election too.

    I hadn't realised the Conservatives had dropped so much from 365.

    But still. It would take 25 further Conservative MPs resigning to even think about being close to losing a majority (and Sinn Fein, Speaker etc). However, fighting 25-30 by-elections all at once isn't ideal.

    I can't see more than a few further resignations. Fabricant, JRM...... that's probably it.... (Truss?)

    Sunak won't be happy, but he can ride it through.
    I'm thinking less about when the majority becomes threatened - which would still take a lot - and more at what point they come to believe it will only get worse, and that the hope of recovery is misplaced.

    I'm not sure that day will come - they will cling to the possibility they can claw things back and the economy rebounds and people are greateful for a cynical tax cut right before an election.
    If public opinion as indicated by the polls remains this mutinous then Conservative MPs - whatever is left of them - could, and probably will, cling on by their fingernails until they can be forced out. A great many of them will be for the chop under such circumstances, with the remainder facing a potentially very long spell kicking their heels in opposition. This would merely be a repetition of what the Major Government managed to do, even though its majority was gone by the end. The current lot are nowhere near having to deal with that problem.

    Should the political situation be less dire for them by early next year, then the case for deploying bribes in the Budget and then calling a Spring election becomes a lot stronger. But with inflation being very stubborn, and further interest rate hikes becoming more likely as a consequence, it becomes harder to see where a recovery in Tory support is meant to come from.

    Thus, the likelihood of Sunak sitting in Downing St until January 2025 increases by the day. If the Conservatives become convinced that a heavy defeat is inevitable, then there's no motivation for them to do anything other than hold both power and their salaries in a desperate grip until the last possible moment.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited June 2023
    It's called TNT Sports now, BT Sport is RIP
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    I know this is a statement of the bleeding obvious, but this government started with a majority of 80. That number has already reduced, and is highly likely to reduce further. For the opposition parties, over-turning a majority of, say, 55 at GE 24 seems much less daunting.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.

    That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.

    And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?

    I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
    Don't get me wrong, May 2024 to October 2024. A few months won't make the blindest bit of difference in that sense.

    I don't see how anything can improve their fortunes. Inflation remains high (but not as high as it was); interest rates are higher than they were (perhaps not as high as now); and the cost of living is still punishing people.

    Even if those began to remedy themselves in the coming 6 - 12 months, the Government will have to say to the country "We're sorry, but it's still going to be tough. We're going to have to think about where to cut budgets and save money. Again". It will be Austerity 2.0 (or is it 3.0?) All the public will see is a Party that has been in power for 14 years and think "We were told austerity was over. Now we're going through it again and I'm struggling with my mortgage". I just do not see what the Government can gain from holding on. It becomes increasingly difficult to trot out the usual lines.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I don’t buy that Sunak wants to cling on forever anyway. Of course he wants to stay as PM but not at the cost of choosing the best time for an election.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    IanB2 said:

    A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….

    Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Pssssst. Out here in the real world the sun is shining, there’s football tonight, and the Ashes start next week. No one cares about any of this.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    biggles said:

    Pssssst. Out here in the real world the sun is shining, there’s football tonight, and the Ashes start next week. No one cares about any of this.

    I think England will win the Ashes 3-2.

    Even if we lose, our new approach of playing positively and not just waiting to be bowled out is appreciated 👍.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.

    I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    All because the Royals want their egos polishing.

    A number of soldiers have fainted today during the Prince of Wales’ Colonel’s Review at the Horse Guards Parade ahead of the King’s Birthday Parade.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1667496451771887616

    You are evidentially not a military man, or you would understand that soldiers look forward to their Colonel’s review.
    Maybe they should stop wearing dead animals on their heads and they wouldn't get so hot!
    Still don't use fish fur, very reactionary lot.

    https://www.discoverwildlife.com/animal-facts/do-the-kings-guards-wear-real-bearskin-hats/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.

    That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.

    And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?

    I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
    October is my strong call too. Wish there was a 'by month' market on it.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.

    I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
    Rochdale you do make me laugh :)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    biggles said:

    Pssssst. Out here in the real world the sun is shining, there’s football tonight, and the Ashes start next week. No one cares about any of this.

    Not sure about that. City win tonight. England win the Ashes. On the back of which, Sunak is unbeatable in any weather, surely?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.

    That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.

    And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?

    I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
    October is my strong call too. Wish there was a 'by month' market on it.
    It'd be a very interesting market. At the right price I'd have my eye on Jan 2025.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    In a Fraserburgh bowling alley. It's lovely and cool, a nice change from the sultry conditions outside!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    I think behind the scenes that a lot of CON would take 250 at the GE. So maybe 25 for LD, 30 for SNP (the meltdown doesn't seem so likely now) and 25 for NI/PC and a few others. So 320 left for LAB? Not quite an overall majority but more than enough to make Keir PM.

    But enough of a remaining base for CON to enable the chance of a win at the following GE??
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    IanB2 said:

    A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….

    I don't think Boris is at all the genius his admirers make him out to be, but I really don't think he wants to risk the humiliation of a by-election, wherever the seat is.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….

    Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
    A great day. 9/6/23 will go down in history and be remembered for at least a couple of months.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.

    That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.

    And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?

    I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
    October is my strong call too. Wish there was a 'by month' market on it.
    It'd be a very interesting market. At the right price I'd have my eye on Jan 2025.
    50s?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Afternoon all :)

    And now there are three - the Conservatives will presumably want them to be held as quickly as possible and possibly on the same day so as to split opposition resources (though it also divides Conservative resources).

    The assumption is Labour and the Conservatives will fight all three seats - will the LDs and Greens? Looking at the Selby & Ainsty seat, the weakness of the LDs is evident - the local Government story is a little complex. Selby District Council was abolished on 1st April and its functions, along with those of six other District and Borough Councils in that area of Yorkshire, were transferred to the County Council which became North Yorkshire Council (akin to what happened in Cornwall).

    The councillors elected in 2022 were for the North Yorkshire County Council - the first elections for the new North Yorkshire Council aren't until 2027. The Conservatives have 46 seats and the opposition groups have 43 (the latter consist of LDs (13), Labour (12), North Yorkshire Independents (9), Greens (5), Independents (5) and a Liberal.

    According to Wiki, "the Selby area" split Conservatives 6 seats (42%), Labour 5 seats (37%) and Independents 3 seats (15%). There were no LD candidates.

    LD strength is in the neighbouring Harrogate area (that Borough was also abolished and incorporated into the new North Yorkshire Council on April 1st) but not in the Wards which form part of the Selby & Ainsty constituency such as Ouseburn and Spofforth. In the 2022 county council elections, it was the Greens who won Ouseburn and ran the Conservatives close in Spofforth.

    There's an argument (perhaps) for the Greens to have a run at Selby & Ainsty and for the LDs to work the other two seats (perhaps).

    It's also worth mentioning the Conservatives will seek to build on anti-ULEZ sentiment in Uxbridge & South Ruislip and of the three that (oddly enough) may be the best prospect for a Conservative hold.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Heathener said:

    If this continues, could they bring down the Government without personally having done so? Quite a clever tactic?

    What does it need? 29 more of them?

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-ally-nigel-adams-to-stand-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect-triggering-third-by-election-12899994


    Assuming that's not realistic, the way the public will view this is one of utter and absolute chaos. The Conservative Party is falling apart.

    We need a General Election. The clamour for one may grow.

    The contempt it shows for their constituents is breathtaking.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.

    I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
    You have a hot tub but aren't a git? Hmm. Let me try and process.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Who genuinely, deep down in the soul and bones, wants City to win tonight then?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….

    Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
    A great day. 9/6/23 will go down in history and be remembered for at least a couple of months.
    If nothing else it's the day the wind changed and the unseasonably arctic weather ended.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    Where the hell is Ainsty?

    It's the Ainsty of York. An ancient wapentake.
    Obviously.
    Skyrack is my favourite wapentake. Never heard of Ainsty.
    I once tried to take a trip to Skyrack but it went tits up
    I know you have your knockers on here, but at least you tried.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,890
    edited June 2023

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    The current make up of the.... wow.
    Wikipedia has the Conservatives on 351. 3 vacant, which will be Adams, Dorries and Johnson.
    There is the SNP lady, Ferrier, who is likely to face a by-election too.

    I hadn't realised the Conservatives had dropped so much from 365.

    But still. It would take 25 further Conservative MPs resigning to even think about being close to losing a majority (and Sinn Fein, Speaker etc). However, fighting 25-30 by-elections all at once isn't ideal.

    I can't see more than a few further resignations. Fabricant, JRM...... that's probably it.... (Truss?)

    Sunak won't be happy, but he can ride it through.
    Boris needs to remember that it was resignations from government, not the backbenches, that ended his ministry. All he has so far is three "friends" ending their careers. They need to read his chapter in The Oxford Myth where he writes about the importance of stooges.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    If this continues, could they bring down the Government without personally having done so? Quite a clever tactic?

    What does it need? 29 more of them?

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-ally-nigel-adams-to-stand-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect-triggering-third-by-election-12899994


    Assuming that's not realistic, the way the public will view this is one of utter and absolute chaos. The Conservative Party is falling apart.

    We need a General Election. The clamour for one may grow.

    The contempt it shows for their constituents is breathtaking.
    Yes, it’s grotesquely self-centred.
    Nothing becomes them like their leaving, to paraphrase.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    FPT for @Ghedebrav in case it was missed…

    Ghedebrav said:

    Champions League Final tonight, though I don’t have BT sport so won’t be watching!

    Actually hotter in Manchester than in Istanbul right now, remarkably.

    It’s free to watch on the BT Sport YouTube channel mate
    Cheers matey!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Regarding elections.

    Inflation should be in a better place by Q1, and interest rates are likely to have peaked out and be falling too.
    Add a promise of a 2p tax cut, and May 24 is likely to be optimal for Sunak.

    May 2nd is the date next year Tories will get the best result, any day after that will be a worse result. Doesn’t mean they be smart enough to call it for May.

    Economically Interest rates won’t be any lower than they are today, growth will be one of the lowest of G20 nations, inflation will be lower due to energy prices, but the ongoing problem with underlying inflation may have it not much under 5%. A 2p tax cut is impossible, with public services and incomes, and borrowing and interest repayment figures in the state they will be in, a 2p tax cut would be a catastrophic political mistake on eve of the election. However, that money could cut other things creatively or ideologically. In the first bracket, not consolidated pay to the public sector, but a one off 2K handout, for private sector businesses taxes and NI cuts. In the second bracket inhesitance tax.

    Halving inflation to 5% may sound good on paper, but what affect will that have on wage claims on the back of years of higher than 5% inflation eroding incomes? 4-5% inflation through first half of 2024 will be a massive issue for government to manage.

    The economy will not come good to help this Tory government, that conversation is over, the conversation now is will the economy help or hinder Labour in a 2028 election. Just look at the borrowing, tax burden, debt repayments, struggling public services, hollowed out incomes and to top it all a struggling world economy predicting no growth for UK for the next FOUR YEARS - and I haven’t even mentioned Brexit.

    economy not coming good to save this government, might not even come good to save the next one either.

    It’s on politics and issues the Tory’s get best election result next May, before the summer of hell kicks in for them, such as boats, eroded incomes, lack of growth, a long dirty war of election campaign through summer 24 focussing on the promises of the 2019 Tory manifesto and Sunak’s own promises when he came to power 2 years before, benefits opponents.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    On Topic. “What an exciting night it will be.”

    What a hideous few days of media narrative it could be for Sunak.

    Don't think so - the defeats (which is most likely) can be laid at Johnson's door and, Sunak's attitude can probably be best summed up as 'good riddance'.
    That won’t be the media narrative to try and manage though will it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.

    That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.

    And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?

    I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
    October is my strong call too. Wish there was a 'by month' market on it.
    It'd be a very interesting market. At the right price I'd have my eye on Jan 2025.
    50s?
    Get BF (or Smarkets) to list it then you'll find out. I think I'd have a dabble at 50s, but a proper bet at about 200-1.

    (To clarify I think that the world sees such a thing at about 200-1 or longer, whereas I would like a bet because I see it as about 33-1, and I'm sure that's far shorter than anyone else imagines)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    A lovely moment toward the end of Friday’s Any Questions when the audience erupts in wild cheers as the news that the clown has resigned from parliament came through….

    Plus Donald Trump sinks further into the mire. Not the worst political day, was it?
    A great day. 9/6/23 will go down in history and be remembered for at least a couple of months.
    If nothing else it's the day the wind changed and the unseasonably arctic weather ended.
    We've swung more-or-less from a seeming eternity of miserable cold grey muck to being, if not roasted, then at least gently sauteed, with nothing in between. It'll be interesting to see if conditions become more comfortable during the week as currently suggested by the forecast, or if the temperature will keep being corrected upwards.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    Where the hell is Ainsty?

    It's the Ainsty of York. An ancient wapentake.
    Obviously.
    Skyrack is my favourite wapentake. Never heard of Ainsty.
    I once tried to take a trip to Skyrack but it went tits up
    I know you have your knockers on here, but at least you tried.
    That's only worth a booby prize.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?

    Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    It's called TNT Sports now, BT Sport is RIP

    Trotter National Traders.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Westie said:

    Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?

    Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?

    It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.

    I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
    Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    I don’t buy that Sunak wants to cling on forever anyway. Of course he wants to stay as PM but not at the cost of choosing the best time for an election.

    I disagree on that, I think they will go passed the best month for the election with fingers crossed, and so get into a Heathener Level Event as they lose control throughout the summer and autumn.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    If this continues, could they bring down the Government without personally having done so? Quite a clever tactic?

    What does it need? 29 more of them?

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-ally-nigel-adams-to-stand-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect-triggering-third-by-election-12899994


    Assuming that's not realistic, the way the public will view this is one of utter and absolute chaos. The Conservative Party is falling apart.

    We need a General Election. The clamour for one may grow.

    The contempt it shows for their constituents is breathtaking.
    The contempt is shows for their local Conservative colleagues is breathtaking according to my Dad. these three actually want Tory losses to hurt Sunak.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.

    That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.

    And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?

    I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
    October is my strong call too. Wish there was a 'by month' market on it.
    It'd be a very interesting market. At the right price I'd have my eye on Jan 2025.
    50s?
    Get BF (or Smarkets) to list it then you'll find out. I think I'd have a dabble at 50s, but a proper bet at about 200-1.

    (To clarify I think that the world sees such a thing at about 200-1 or longer, whereas I would like a bet because I see it as about 33-1, and I'm sure that's far shorter than anyone else imagines)
    200 would prise even my wallet open.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Westie said:

    Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?

    Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?

    As the whole chiltern and northstead thing is a legal fiction people don't really need to apply per se (though he may well have sent a letter to that effect).

    When a Sinn Fein MP resigned they tried having a big theatrical strop about not asking for such an appointment because its a silly anachronism or some such rubbish (such horror!), but their wish to resign was taken as a request to be so appointed.

    So even if Boris did not send a letter to the Speaker or Chancellor his public statement can be assumed to be such a request.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    Selby is the sort of town that has more gunsmiths than tattoo or knitted muesli shops. Also a very fine minster well worth visiting - think little Durham cathedral for its magnificent interior. I would be slow to bet against the Tories.

    But why the resignation - is it part of a plan of attrition, or random acts?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.

    I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
    You have a hot tub but aren't a git? Hmm. Let me try and process.
    42-carat plonker?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    A minimum of 4 by-elections this summer. At what point do you say “sod it” and call a General Election instead?

    Only once the government has yourusername.
    Yeah yeah. Very funny. It’s a serious question though. If Alister Jack and Alok Sharma go, maybe the one or two others if reports are be believed (and I don’t mean Priti Patel or Simon Clarke), you face having upwards of 6 or 7 by-elections.

    To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.

    But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
    They need to believe nothing that might come up in the next 14-16 months will improve their fortunes versus if they go now.

    That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.

    And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?

    I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
    October is my strong call too. Wish there was a 'by month' market on it.
    It'd be a very interesting market. At the right price I'd have my eye on Jan 2025.
    50s?
    Get BF (or Smarkets) to list it then you'll find out. I think I'd have a dabble at 50s, but a proper bet at about 200-1.

    (To clarify I think that the world sees such a thing at about 200-1 or longer, whereas I would like a bet because I see it as about 33-1, and I'm sure that's far shorter than anyone else imagines)
    200 would prise even my wallet open.
    Anyway, if you can be bothered to deal with BF then I'd welcome a month-by-month GE market.

    I have little success when helping them as to matters bettable.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.

    I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
    Quite a few people seem to subcontract their moral compass out to 'not voting Tory' - it's easier than actually being nice to people isn't it?
    Wait a second, you're the guy who pushes Putin's lies on Ukraine, you're not even in the same county as the moral high ground.
    Oh dear, that's a set back - I was so hoping for your seal of moral approval.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    algarkirk said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    Selby is the sort of town that has more gunsmiths than tattoo or knitted muesli shops. Also a very fine minster well worth visiting - think little Durham cathedral for its magnificent interior. I would be slow to bet against the Tories.

    But why the resignation - is it part of a plan of attrition, or random acts?

    I've actually been to Selby station, back in 2018, by virtue of doing both the links between the ECML towards York and the Leeds-Hull line. Saw the swing bridge too.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    Omnium said:

    Westie said:

    Has Johnson taken the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead then? I didn't know an MP could resign off his own bat with immediate effect. Or is he sticking two fingers up at parliamentary procedure the same way he gestured at lockdown law, and the same way he once walked out of a parliamentary inquiry?

    Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?

    It has to be such a route in that you actually can't resign as an MP.
    The Chiltern Hundreds thing seems to have been forgotten about by the entire media. It's reminiscent of how king's (or queen's) consent was forgotten for a few decades too. The Guardian reported it as though they'd discovered this weird procedure that nobody had noticed before. Has anyone even pointed out that Johnson is insulting his constituents? Harriet Harman and other members of the Privileges Committee could be the worst devils in Westminster, but he was elected to represent his constituents, not them. Does he think his constituents would vote against him in a recall election solely because they're Harman's robots? He's got no guts.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,695
    What 47% of people think Sunak means by halving inflation...
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1667509473953316865?cxt=HHwWgoCw6YPCl6QuAAAA
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.

    I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
    Haha yeah you make a good point!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.

    Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
    They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
    But it wasn't this Selby.
    That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
    This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
    Not the same thing at all.
    Bet accordingly.

    Yeah, not a million miles from me, or the glittering metropolis of that Leeds, but very rural, farm-y, lots of big detached houses with mahoosive gardens and mahoosive Beamers and Rangies on the mahoosive drives. Be surprised if it goes anything but Tory.
    You can't judge how people vote by their house a their car. I remember visiting Tories being ridiculed for arguing with people in posh bits of Thornaby that they *must* be a Tory as look at their car.

    I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
    You have a hot tub but aren't a git? Hmm. Let me try and process.
    42-carat plonker?
    I'll take the 5th seeing as it's Rochdale.
This discussion has been closed.