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The public support Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com
The public support Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com
SNAP POLL62% say it was right for Boris Johnson to resignhttps://t.co/fzYVIV3bRm65% think he knowingly misled Parliament on Partygatehttps://t.co/LPyKAeE6GE72% think it likely he committed further COVID offenceshttps://t.co/6V4ylWcgBB pic.twitter.com/GpWwArXPR6
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Edit, I was first, therefore ruining my lame gag.
It's classic Boris - superficially confident blustering which strikes the right note of outrage at 'enemies' to garner plenty of support, despite being nonsense.
Wouldn't that be a better way of sticking it to the devil Harman?
What a hideous few days of media narrative it could be for Sunak.
A number of soldiers have fainted today during the Prince of Wales’ Colonel’s Review at the Horse Guards Parade ahead of the King’s Birthday Parade.
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1667496451771887616
He's screwed - he will look weak and defeated, and too many agree with Boris for him to be able to call it a strop and say it is a time for renewal.
Those pointing out Labour used to hold Selby, beware.
They did, between 1997 and 2010. Marginally.
But it wasn't this Selby.
That Selby was Selby and a substantial bit of York. Including the University.
This Selby and Ainsty is Selby and a collection of villages near Harrogate.
Not the same thing at all.
Bet accordingly.
Though holding two of them isn't beyond the realms of possibilities.
Obviously.
Rishi needs to call the by elections now, all on one date in July, get the pain over with!
(Maybe he should wait until Monday in case any more go 😈).
Nah, I don't buy it either.
Apparently a wapentake is a hundred.
Wikipedia has the Conservatives on 351. 3 vacant, which will be Adams, Dorries and Johnson.
There is the SNP lady, Ferrier, who is likely to face a by-election too.
I hadn't realised the Conservatives had dropped so much from 365.
But still. It would take 25 further Conservative MPs resigning to even think about being close to losing a majority (and Sinn Fein, Speaker etc). However, fighting 25-30 by-elections all at once isn't ideal.
I can't see more than a few further resignations. Fabricant, JRM...... that's probably it.... (Truss?)
Sunak won't be happy, but he can ride it through.
I'm not sure that day will come - they will cling to the possibility they can claw things back and the economy rebounds and people are greateful for a cynical tax cut right before an election.
To some, the prospect of getting rid of some of the swivel-eyes set will be a price worth paying for the loss of those seats.
But if inflation sticks around the 7% - 8% mark, interest rates are higher, cost of living problems persist, at what point do you say “Sod it. Let Labour try and sort it. We could be back in 5 years if they screw it up”?
What does it need? 29 more of them?
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-ally-nigel-adams-to-stand-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect-triggering-third-by-election-12899994
Assuming that's not realistic, the way the public will view this is one of utter and absolute chaos. The Conservative Party is falling apart.
We need a General Election. The clamour for one may grow.
My comments to them were mostly around saying they'd done a reasonable job, and begging them not to take the easy route and put in place boring names to appease moaners upset that not every town or village is listed in an area, and ending up with something like Mid-Bedfordshire.
Rob Watson, UK political correspondent, has told BBC News that Nigel Adams was often described as “the unofficial chief of staff”, an absolute loyalist to Boris Johnson.
He then asked: “Are we about to see open civil war within the Conservative Party?”
Watson went on to say that looking at the state of the economy and high levels of inflation, it is hard to think of anything worse for Rishi Sunak than having to have three by-elections.
“Inevitably they always turn out to be mini popularity tests for the government,” Watson added.
But what does this latest resignation mean for the pm?
Watson answered: “Johnson has declared war on him, he needs to consider if he wants to declare war back on him. There is one question now: Is a civil war within the ruling party preventable?”
bbc website
That's hard, because they could always get lucky with something, however improbably.
And if they do not go this autumn, there's not really much point going before May 2024, and that's so close to the end what harm waiting a few more months?
I remain confident of late October 2024 - so Rishi gets 2 years as PM.
Maybe not!
Regardless, those that think this is somehow good for Rishi Sunak need to wake up and smell the covfefe.
Boris has been a little unfairly dealt with it seems, although the report may change that. (And anyway it's his own stupid and ego-centric fault if he has finished up that way)
Hattie may well have chosen her moment.
Inflation should be in a better place by Q1, and interest rates are likely to have peaked out and be falling too.
Add a promise of a 2p tax cut, and May 24 is likely to be optimal for Sunak.
A GE can’t come soon enough.
Should the political situation be less dire for them by early next year, then the case for deploying bribes in the Budget and then calling a Spring election becomes a lot stronger. But with inflation being very stubborn, and further interest rate hikes becoming more likely as a consequence, it becomes harder to see where a recovery in Tory support is meant to come from.
Thus, the likelihood of Sunak sitting in Downing St until January 2025 increases by the day. If the Conservatives become convinced that a heavy defeat is inevitable, then there's no motivation for them to do anything other than hold both power and their salaries in a desperate grip until the last possible moment.
I don't see how anything can improve their fortunes. Inflation remains high (but not as high as it was); interest rates are higher than they were (perhaps not as high as now); and the cost of living is still punishing people.
Even if those began to remedy themselves in the coming 6 - 12 months, the Government will have to say to the country "We're sorry, but it's still going to be tough. We're going to have to think about where to cut budgets and save money. Again". It will be Austerity 2.0 (or is it 3.0?) All the public will see is a Party that has been in power for 14 years and think "We were told austerity was over. Now we're going through it again and I'm struggling with my mortgage". I just do not see what the Government can gain from holding on. It becomes increasingly difficult to trot out the usual lines.
Even if we lose, our new approach of playing positively and not just waiting to be bowled out is appreciated 👍.
I've got a big house and mahoosive gardens and a big Tesla and a hot tub. I don't vote Tory because I am not a git.
https://www.discoverwildlife.com/animal-facts/do-the-kings-guards-wear-real-bearskin-hats/
But enough of a remaining base for CON to enable the chance of a win at the following GE??
And now there are three - the Conservatives will presumably want them to be held as quickly as possible and possibly on the same day so as to split opposition resources (though it also divides Conservative resources).
The assumption is Labour and the Conservatives will fight all three seats - will the LDs and Greens? Looking at the Selby & Ainsty seat, the weakness of the LDs is evident - the local Government story is a little complex. Selby District Council was abolished on 1st April and its functions, along with those of six other District and Borough Councils in that area of Yorkshire, were transferred to the County Council which became North Yorkshire Council (akin to what happened in Cornwall).
The councillors elected in 2022 were for the North Yorkshire County Council - the first elections for the new North Yorkshire Council aren't until 2027. The Conservatives have 46 seats and the opposition groups have 43 (the latter consist of LDs (13), Labour (12), North Yorkshire Independents (9), Greens (5), Independents (5) and a Liberal.
According to Wiki, "the Selby area" split Conservatives 6 seats (42%), Labour 5 seats (37%) and Independents 3 seats (15%). There were no LD candidates.
LD strength is in the neighbouring Harrogate area (that Borough was also abolished and incorporated into the new North Yorkshire Council on April 1st) but not in the Wards which form part of the Selby & Ainsty constituency such as Ouseburn and Spofforth. In the 2022 county council elections, it was the Greens who won Ouseburn and ran the Conservatives close in Spofforth.
There's an argument (perhaps) for the Greens to have a run at Selby & Ainsty and for the LDs to work the other two seats (perhaps).
It's also worth mentioning the Conservatives will seek to build on anti-ULEZ sentiment in Uxbridge & South Ruislip and of the three that (oddly enough) may be the best prospect for a Conservative hold.
Nothing becomes them like their leaving, to paraphrase.
Economically Interest rates won’t be any lower than they are today, growth will be one of the lowest of G20 nations, inflation will be lower due to energy prices, but the ongoing problem with underlying inflation may have it not much under 5%. A 2p tax cut is impossible, with public services and incomes, and borrowing and interest repayment figures in the state they will be in, a 2p tax cut would be a catastrophic political mistake on eve of the election. However, that money could cut other things creatively or ideologically. In the first bracket, not consolidated pay to the public sector, but a one off 2K handout, for private sector businesses taxes and NI cuts. In the second bracket inhesitance tax.
Halving inflation to 5% may sound good on paper, but what affect will that have on wage claims on the back of years of higher than 5% inflation eroding incomes? 4-5% inflation through first half of 2024 will be a massive issue for government to manage.
The economy will not come good to help this Tory government, that conversation is over, the conversation now is will the economy help or hinder Labour in a 2028 election. Just look at the borrowing, tax burden, debt repayments, struggling public services, hollowed out incomes and to top it all a struggling world economy predicting no growth for UK for the next FOUR YEARS - and I haven’t even mentioned Brexit.
economy not coming good to save this government, might not even come good to save the next one either.
It’s on politics and issues the Tory’s get best election result next May, before the summer of hell kicks in for them, such as boats, eroded incomes, lack of growth, a long dirty war of election campaign through summer 24 focussing on the promises of the 2019 Tory manifesto and Sunak’s own promises when he came to power 2 years before, benefits opponents.
(To clarify I think that the world sees such a thing at about 200-1 or longer, whereas I would like a bet because I see it as about 33-1, and I'm sure that's far shorter than anyone else imagines)
Also is it true that he's got the words "I don't half have it coming to me" tattooed on the blubber somewhere?
When a Sinn Fein MP resigned they tried having a big theatrical strop about not asking for such an appointment because its a silly anachronism or some such rubbish (such horror!), but their wish to resign was taken as a request to be so appointed.
So even if Boris did not send a letter to the Speaker or Chancellor his public statement can be assumed to be such a request.
But why the resignation - is it part of a plan of attrition, or random acts?
I have little success when helping them as to matters bettable.