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The Monday open thread – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,889
edited June 2023 in General
imageThe Monday open thread – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,760
    edited June 2023
    First...

    And for want of a subject - I see Pence is going to declare... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,531
    An open thread...

    ...so nothing to prevent us discussing AV then!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,665
    Labour leads by 14%.

    Westminster VI (4 June):

    Labour 44% (+1)
    Conservative 30% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 28 May

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1665750328439099392?s=46
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,658
    The last thread wasn't an open thread?
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,859

    Labour leads by 14%.

    Westminster VI (4 June):

    Labour 44% (+1)
    Conservative 30% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 28 May

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1665750328439099392?s=46

    SKSFPE
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,665
    edited June 2023
    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,878
    Tories are almost averaging 30% in the polls.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,301

    The last thread wasn't an open thread?

    It's an open and shut thread.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,301

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    Great photo.
    The expression of bemused idiocy rivals that of Tucker Carlson.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,961
    Thought I'd reached peak sadness on the last thread, but I've just now literally seen Leon's plane fly past :weary:
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,301
    Farooq said:

    An open thread...

    ...so nothing to prevent us discussing AV then!

    Under an AV system, according to Scottish subsamples I've seen, the most popular album of the century so far is Radiohead's Pineapple on Pizza
    TSE prefers the prog rock band Pineapple Thief.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,126
    edited June 2023

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    If Trump gets the nomination, I hope Pence or Cheney stand as spoilers.

    Their campaign slogan - Trump is a RINO. Vote for a real Republican.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,278

    The last thread wasn't an open thread?

    The last thread, heroically, was largely a discussion of early medieval history.

    I'm actually rather hoping we can still be discussing this when Leon lands in Cincinnati.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,744
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories are almost averaging 30% in the polls.

    That's a very creative way of describing 28%.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    edited June 2023
    Looks like the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive has reached its active ground assault phase.

    "CJ
    @CasualArtyFan
    Russians admit they’ve been pushed out of Novodontesk, after initially claiming the Ukrainian attack was “stopped.”

    Notable here is that the 🇺🇦 37th Marine Brigade operates NATO gear, including AMX-10 RC."


    https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1665747142437220352

    Most of the reported attacks over the past couple of days have been in the obvious place, either side of the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and they don't seem to be meeting notably stiff resistance.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,961
    Farooq said:

    CatMan said:

    Thought I'd reached peak sadness on the last thread, but I've just now literally seen Leon's plane fly past :weary:

    Did you have a laser pointer in your hand?
    Knew I forgot something. I'll have to try on his return trip
  • Options
    MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Cookie said:

    The last thread wasn't an open thread?

    The last thread, heroically, was largely a discussion of early medieval history.

    I'm actually rather hoping we can still be discussing this when Leon lands in Cincinnati.
    We can start a fight about whether it wasn't about late antiquity if you like.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,905
    Leon is on his way to Cincinnati to write an article for the Gazette

    Maybe he should just copy this one...

    This exciting US city that straddles two states has a new direct flight
    Old-fashioned bourbon, hot takes on spag bol and a new route from London are all reasons to visit historic Cincinnati — and did we mention the bourbon?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-exciting-us-city-that-straddles-two-states-has-a-new-direct-flight-qgdm7smdf
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,292

    Cookie said:

    The last thread wasn't an open thread?

    The last thread, heroically, was largely a discussion of early medieval history.

    I'm actually rather hoping we can still be discussing this when Leon lands in Cincinnati.
    We should have an open thread on the Renaissance era.

    Although nobody will be able to agree to when it should start.
    Ukrainian counter offensive?

    I see my suggestion of tomorrow may have been too late.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.

    Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    edited June 2023

    Labour leads by 14%.

    Westminster VI (4 June):

    Labour 44% (+1)
    Conservative 30% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 28 May

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1665750328439099392?s=46

    Tories hit 30%. Sunak now at least back to Major 1997 levels . The Tories also avoiding falling below the 29% the Duke of Wellington got in 1832 and their lowest voteshare ever, which is where they were heading under Truss
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,089
    HYUFD said:

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.

    Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
    He's obviously an awful candidate. Just much better than the others. (Nobody would have considered him before the rise of Trump)
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,141
    HYUFD said:

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.

    Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
    Hard to think of a more unpleasant place to be.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,059
    Just been to see "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"

    Wow. Perhaps not as good as the first film (for a self-contained story), but excellent nonetheless.Visuals and music knock it out the park, again.
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,232
    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,292
    edited June 2023
    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    edited June 2023
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.

    Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
    He's obviously an awful candidate. Just much better than the others. (Nobody would have considered him before the rise of Trump)
    When Carter lost in 1980, the last US President to lose his re election battle after only 1 term of his party in the White House before Trump, the Democrats picked Mondale, Carter's VP, to run against President Reagan in 1984. So there is precedent for a Pence run, unfortunately for him Trump has decided to run again which Carter declined to do in 1984
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,301
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.

    Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
    He's obviously an awful candidate. Just much better than the others. (Nobody would have considered him before the rise of Trump)
    When Carter lost in 1980, the last US President to lose his re election battle after only 1 term of his party in the White House before Trump, the Democrats picked Mondale, Carter's VP, to run against President Reagan in 1984. So there is precedent for a Pence run, unfortunately for him Trump has decided to run again which Carter declined to do in 1984
    Equally unfortunately, he makes Mondale look charismatic.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,859
    Cookie said:

    The last thread wasn't an open thread?

    The last thread, heroically, was largely a discussion of early medieval history.

    I'm actually rather hoping we can still be discussing this when Leon lands in Cincinnati.
    Well, speaking of Nordic folks as we tangentially were, one of the most interesting things to me about early medieval European history is how Scandinavian peoples snuck all around the continent and set the tone for civilisations there for literally centuries to come. Not just the vikings sacking Dublin etc., but founding dynasties in Normandy (and thence England and Sicily) and even kicking off Russia with the Kievan Rus' and Holmgard/Novgorod.

    I'm a particular fan of the Varangian Guard who were the bodyguards to successive Byzantine emperors for half a millennium - and wasn't just Norsemen either, but Anglo-Saxons (them again!) too.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Princess Eugenie has had a baby boy, taking 13th place in the line of succession and moving Prince Edward down to 14th

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65785911
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,408
    Is this the thread to ask SKS fans to explain why SKS Lab is only 14 points ahead down from 37 points 7 months ago.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,089

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,665

    Is this the thread to ask SKS fans to explain why SKS Lab is only 14 points ahead down from 37 points 7 months ago.

    Because only a bellend didn’t realise the Truss legacy would dissipate.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611
    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    Lennon said:

    First...

    And for want of a subject - I see Pence is going to declare... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    Most of these various candidates have no chance against Trump and most of them surely know they have no chance. They also know the danger of splitting the anti-Trump vote. Yet even Pence is weirdly coy about criticising Trump.

    So are most of them doing it because they feel the need to make a token opposition for when they end up backing Trump as the nominee, because they want to be in with a shot in case the law can take care of Trump before the election (hope springs eternal), because they think despite losing they can inflict some wounds on Trump (though given the party, including these candidates, usually back him in the legal matters, I don't know what that could be), or because they are deluded after all?
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,089

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,551

    Is this the thread to ask SKS fans to explain why SKS Lab is only 14 points ahead down from 37 points 7 months ago.

    Because when the Conservatives realise their leader is a complete liability, they get rid of them.

    It would be better not to put liabilities into the leadership in the first place, but you can't have everything.

    How many 14 point leads did Corbyn manage?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    Barnesian said:

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    If Trump gets the nomination, I hope Pence or Cheney stand as spoilers.

    Their campaign slogan - Trump is a RINO. Vote for a real Republican.
    It would be bold but fair.

    Of course, whilst all the candidates are supposed to commit to backing the eventual nominee in order to take part in the debates there's obviously not much cost to any of them (Trump included) in doing otherwise.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
    I think that description would have been fitting if not for the wholesale Russification after WW2. I've never been there but I think it's very dependent on the Russian military-industrial complex now.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.

    Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
    Hard to think of a more unpleasant place to be.
    Possibly the surface of Venus, but even then the stench of sulfuric acid in the air (never mind the heat and pressure) is probably more bearable.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,665
    The anger I feel at this betrayal is only matched by the anger I felt when Mark Reckless defected to UKIP.

    Andy Flower, England’s former head coach who led them to three Ashes series victories, has joined Australia’s backroom staff as coaching consultant for this summer’s series.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/andy-flower-joins-australia-coaching-team-before-ashes-xqv9qklpw
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,665
    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    Con gain all the Glasgow seats.

    Mark my words.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
    I think that description would have been fitting if not for the wholesale Russification after WW2. I've never been there but I think it's very dependent on the Russian military-industrial complex now.
    A Russian naval base with a city attached?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,031

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,744

    Is this the thread to ask SKS fans to explain why SKS Lab is only 14 points ahead down from 37 points 7 months ago.

    Because only a bellend didn’t realise the Truss legacy would dissipate.
    And also because it's a 40 point improvement on the 26 point Conservative lead in the week before Starmer took over.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,089

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    Con gain all the Glasgow seats.

    Mark my words.
    0/10

    You must write words that make sense!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,114

    Is this the thread to ask SKS fans to explain why SKS Lab is only 14 points ahead down from 37 points 7 months ago.

    SKS Lab sounds like a new skincare brand for men.
    Be rude not to.

    "84% of 137 middle aged men agree SKS Lab serum applied as part of your 5 yearly routine reduces the appearance of gammony skin."
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,154
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    Sub samples are fine for entertainment purposes.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    No they aren't banned as long as it is made clear it is a subsample.

    Labour also up at SNP expense of course but yes Starmer and Miliband's new anti oil policy clearly not gone down well in NE Scotland with the Scottish Conservatives back ahead of them
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mike Pence betrays Trump once again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361

    If Trump gets the nomination, I hope Pence or Cheney stand as spoilers.

    Their campaign slogan - Trump is a RINO. Vote for a real Republican.
    It would be bold but fair.

    Of course, whilst all the candidates are supposed to commit to backing the eventual nominee in order to take part in the debates there's obviously not much cost to any of them (Trump included) in doing otherwise.
    I think a fair number of states also have "sore loser" laws preventing someone standing in primaries from then standing as an independent or for another party at a general election if they fail to get the nomination. Although there is debate on applicability to Presidential elections and it isn't all states by any means.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,665

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,031

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
    The Germans don’t want it. Why would they want a piece of land full of people who consider themselves Russian? The German population there was systematically removed post WWII.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
    I think that description would have been fitting if not for the wholesale Russification after WW2. I've never been there but I think it's very dependent on the Russian military-industrial complex now.
    Yes. It wouldn't be surprising if Kaliningrad was the last bit of the Russian Empire to be lost to Moscow in a scenario that the Russian Federation falls apart.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,117

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
    Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
    The Germans don’t want it. Why would they want a piece of land full of people who consider themselves Russian? The German population there was systematically removed post WWII.
    I was thinking more of using it as a propaganda tool. They could try to stir up German nationalism and set them against the Poles, etc.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,031

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
    I think that description would have been fitting if not for the wholesale Russification after WW2. I've never been there but I think it's very dependent on the Russian military-industrial complex now.
    Yes. It wouldn't be surprising if Kaliningrad was the last bit of the Russian Empire to be lost to Moscow in a scenario that the Russian Federation falls apart.
    Without Russia backing it, I think Kaliningrad would become a very poor micro state. No country bordering it wants a population of upset Russians.

    Without its use as a Russian military base, it wouldn’t be a threat in the area.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,031

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
    The Germans don’t want it. Why would they want a piece of land full of people who consider themselves Russian? The German population there was systematically removed post WWII.
    I was thinking more of using it as a propaganda tool. They could try to stir up German nationalism and set them against the Poles, etc.
    Nearly no one in Germany would want it - trading bits of land with other people living on them is the kind of thinking that Modern Germany has expressly rejected.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,551

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    You mean, it's a popular policy?

    The YouGov polling on Labour's new oil and gas policy had 40% in support, 32% opposed.

    But fascinatingly, every political demographic had more support than opposition.

    Net support:

    Labour voters: +16
    Conservative voters: +2
    Lib Dem voters: +11

    Remainers: +16
    Leavers: +3

    https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1665624495569137665
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,232

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
    I think they're ok for *collectively* picking up trends. But treating any individual subsample as gospel (even the 'weighted' YouGov ones) is foolish.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,154

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    You mean, it's a popular policy?

    The YouGov polling on Labour's new oil and gas policy had 40% in support, 32% opposed.

    But fascinatingly, every political demographic had more support than opposition.

    Net support:

    Labour voters: +16
    Conservative voters: +2
    Lib Dem voters: +11

    Remainers: +16
    Leavers: +3

    https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1665624495569137665
    It doesn't follow that it is the correct thing to do
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,154
    Anyway, the excruciating Schofield / Willoughby episode has been replaced by media mania over Harry and his court case with coverage to lead the news all week

    We really have a very poor media
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    Of course there aren't. What Lukashenko meant was "I've always seen them as our lads and lasses." Big deal.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,744
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll:
    Labour 53%
    Con 26%
    Lib Dem 12%
    Green 9%

    How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426

    Anyway, the excruciating Schofield / Willoughby episode has been replaced by media mania over Harry and his court case with coverage to lead the news all week

    We really have a very poor media

    I nearly went nuts recently when I caught some of a Radio 4 programme consisting of the media talking about how the media talk about the media.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,129

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
    Only a son of a dick with the first name of Stuart would be so silly...
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,557
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll:
    Labour 53%
    Con 26%
    Lib Dem 12%
    Green 9%

    How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
    Presumably these weird subsamples cancel out to large degree, but they must widen the MOE.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2023
    FPT:

    Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.

    I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll:
    Labour 53%
    Con 26%
    Lib Dem 12%
    Green 9%

    How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
    Less than half of them, as many of them are LD target seats rather than Labour
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611
    viewcode said:

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
    Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
    Yes but they wanted to have it recognised and sanctions to be lifted. Putin didn't like being frozen out of the G8.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,246
    Evening all :)

    As others say, there are some curiousities in the regional sub samples.

    The England VI is Labour 46%, Conservative 30%, Liberal Democrat 13%, Green 5%, Reform 5% and Others 1%. That's a 14.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 9% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    The Blue Wall polling will show us the extent to which we can expect tactical voting currently - it was alluded to in yesterday afternoon's thread about shy non-Conservatives.

    UNS on those numbers would put the Conservatives on 180 seats but we can easily add some tactical voting to being us much nearer the 1997/2001 seat numbers.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll:
    Labour 53%
    Con 26%
    Lib Dem 12%
    Green 9%

    How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
    Presumably these weird subsamples cancel out to large degree, but they must widen the MOE.
    There's no reason weird subsamples widen the MOE. It's just some of the sub-samples are very small and the poll only aims for demographic balance across the poll as a whole, not within each sub-sample.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,089
    Westie said:

    Anyway, the excruciating Schofield / Willoughby episode has been replaced by media mania over Harry and his court case with coverage to lead the news all week

    We really have a very poor media

    I nearly went nuts recently when I caught some of a Radio 4 programme consisting of the media talking about how the media talk about the media.
    What type of nuts?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll:
    Labour 53%
    Con 26%
    Lib Dem 12%
    Green 9%

    How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
    Less than half of them, as many of them are LD target seats rather than Labour
    Bearing in mind this is wholly moot as reading into sub-samples is madness, there is no way the Tories would lose less than half their seats in the region if, by some miracle, Labour got twice the Tory vote in the SW. They'd win a ton of seats from third on the basis of that (although, as I say, the sub-sample is clearly unrealistic).
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,744
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll:
    Labour 53%
    Con 26%
    Lib Dem 12%
    Green 9%

    How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
    Less than half of them, as many of them are LD target seats rather than Labour
    If they lost less than half, that's a loss of 23 or less. So you are claiming that the Conservatives would win at least 45% (i.e. 25+) of the 55 seats in the South West with just 26% of the vote.

    Do you really think that? Seriously?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    You mean, it's a popular policy?

    The YouGov polling on Labour's new oil and gas policy had 40% in support, 32% opposed.

    But fascinatingly, every political demographic had more support than opposition.

    Net support:

    Labour voters: +16
    Conservative voters: +2
    Lib Dem voters: +11

    Remainers: +16
    Leavers: +3

    https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1665624495569137665
    36% of Scots opposed however compared to only 32% of UK voters overall.

    Londoners are most supportive, 46% of Londoners back a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to 40% of UK voters overall who back such a ban
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,788

    FPT:

    Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.

    I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
    This is why young English and Welsh couples would elope to Gretna Green, just across the border in Scotland where 16- and 17-year-olds could marry without their parents' consent.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,788
    HYUFD said:

    Princess Eugenie has had a baby boy, taking 13th place in the line of succession and moving Prince Edward down to 14th

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65785911

    And the King and Queen's horse, Reminder, has just won the 6.45 at Windsor, which should pay for wetting the baby's head. At least this one has a sensible name, unlike his brother August.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll:
    Labour 53%
    Con 26%
    Lib Dem 12%
    Green 9%

    How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
    Less than half of them, as many of them are LD target seats rather than Labour
    If they lost less than half, that's a loss of 23 or less. So you are claiming that the Conservatives would win at least 45% (i.e. 25+) of the 55 seats in the South West with just 26% of the vote.

    Do you really think that? Seriously?
    Yes, as I said the anti Tory vote is split. In 2019 the LDs got 18% in the South West compared to only 11% UK wide. Much of that high Labour vote in the SW will be huge Labour majorities in Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth, Gloucester, Bournemouth, and Swindon and Falmouth etc while the rural and coastal SW will be split between LDs and Labour for the anti Tory vote

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,788
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
    Only a son of a dick with the first name of Stuart would be so silly...
    Did we establish that Stuart Dickson is all right and there was no sinister reason for his stopping posting?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,031

    viewcode said:

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
    Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
    Yes but they wanted to have it recognised and sanctions to be lifted. Putin didn't like being frozen out of the G8.
    I am trying to imagine Merkel’s reaction to such an offer.

    Probably a bit like the King Of Belgium, when the Kaiser offered him (pre WWI) large chunks of France in return for letting the Germans march threw Belgium when the time came…

    The Belgian King made a joke about the days of Louis The Fourteenth being long gone. Then drove home with his ceremonial helmet on backwards. And told the French that the Kaiser was insane.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,031
    edited June 2023

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
    Only a son of a dick with the first name of Stuart would be so silly...
    Did we establish that Stuart Dickson is all right and there was no sinister reason for his stopping posting?
    He managed to get himself banned. Again.
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,470
    Have we covered the rural seats poll by Survation?

    https://www.cla.org.uk/documents/727/CLA_Survation_Report_Final_.pdf


    https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/

    https://www.survation.com/conservatives-face-losses-in-rural-strongholds/

    !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    People might moan, but after 4 losses they cannot afford to not be ruthless.

    NEW: Labour leader @Keir_Starmer responds to criticism over Jamie Driscoll (@MayorJD) not being on the party's candidate longlist for North East Mayor

    "We're going through a rigorous selection exercise & I make no apologies for saying we want the highest quality candidates"


    https://twitter.com/TomSheldrickITV/status/1665736108100005890?cxt=HHwWhMC9zcaK8Z0uAAAA
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon is on his way to Cincinnati to write an article for the Gazette

    Maybe he should just copy this one...

    This exciting US city that straddles two states has a new direct flight
    Old-fashioned bourbon, hot takes on spag bol and a new route from London are all reasons to visit historic Cincinnati — and did we mention the bourbon?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-exciting-us-city-that-straddles-two-states-has-a-new-direct-flight-qgdm7smdf

    I'm off to Cincinnati in September for this:

    https://www.americanmary.com/homecoming
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611

    viewcode said:

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
    Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
    Yes but they wanted to have it recognised and sanctions to be lifted. Putin didn't like being frozen out of the G8.
    I am trying to imagine Merkel’s reaction to such an offer.

    Probably a bit like the King Of Belgium, when the Kaiser offered him (pre WWI) large chunks of France in return for letting the Germans march threw Belgium when the time came…

    The Belgian King made a joke about the days of Louis The Fourteenth being long gone. Then drove home with his ceremonial helmet on backwards. And told the French that the Kaiser was insane.
    You wouldn't propose it formally. They could have had someone like Zhirinovsky float the idea and get their proxies in Germany worked up about it. The spirit of Molotov–Ribbentrop was still present at the time.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,556
    edited June 2023

    FPT:

    Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.

    I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
    This is why young English and Welsh couples would elope to Gretna Green, just across the border in Scotland where 16- and 17-year-olds could marry without their parents' consent.
    Historically, up to 20 too, but another factor was the need for prior banns in the C of E churches, or being able to organise a special licence, I seen to recall.

    In fact they didn't need a minister or vicar: just to say they were married in front of witnesses, marriage in Scotland being a simple legal contract without the flummery of calling it a religious sacrament.

    The English upper classes really, really loathed the Scots Law of marriage, and at one time there was a tendency to try and enact a law treating Scots marriages as being invalid in England. Which upset every single Scottish married couple. Didn't get anywhere.

    PS: also divorce was much easier in Scotland. Which made for some pretty tense situations, though it is too long since I read the relevant book for me to be able to comment in detail.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,089
    kle4 said:

    People might moan, but after 4 losses they cannot afford to not be ruthless.

    NEW: Labour leader @Keir_Starmer responds to criticism over Jamie Driscoll (@MayorJD) not being on the party's candidate longlist for North East Mayor

    "We're going through a rigorous selection exercise & I make no apologies for saying we want the highest quality candidates"


    https://twitter.com/TomSheldrickITV/status/1665736108100005890?cxt=HHwWhMC9zcaK8Z0uAAAA

    The important thing to observe from that link is that Starmer is looking a little less unwell.

    As a spin-off, what a bunch of!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,031

    viewcode said:

    Omnium said:

    Though he was thought to be on death's door Lukashenko seems to be making a play for Kaliningrad.

    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20

    'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'

    That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.

    Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
    Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
    I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
    No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.

    The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
    Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
    Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
    Yes but they wanted to have it recognised and sanctions to be lifted. Putin didn't like being frozen out of the G8.
    I am trying to imagine Merkel’s reaction to such an offer.

    Probably a bit like the King Of Belgium, when the Kaiser offered him (pre WWI) large chunks of France in return for letting the Germans march threw Belgium when the time came…

    The Belgian King made a joke about the days of Louis The Fourteenth being long gone. Then drove home with his ceremonial helmet on backwards. And told the French that the Kaiser was insane.
    You wouldn't propose it formally. They could have had someone like Zhirinovsky float the idea and get their proxies in Germany worked up about it. The spirit of Molotov–Ribbentrop was still present at the time.
    Even the AfD would say WTAF?

    Also the ultranationalists in Russia wouldn't look kindly to selling fellow Russians to the Germans.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Carnyx said:

    FPT:

    Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.

    I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
    This is why young English and Welsh couples would elope to Gretna Green, just across the border in Scotland where 16- and 17-year-olds could marry without their parents' consent.
    Historically, up to 20 too, but another factor was the need for prior banns in the C of E churches, or being able to organise a special licence, I seen to recall.

    In fact they didn't need a minister or vicar: just to say they were married in front of witnesses, marriage in Scotland being a simple legal contract without the flummery of calling it a religious sacrament.

    The English upper classes really, really loathed the Scots Law of marriage, and at one time there was a tendency to try and enact a law treating Scots marriages as being invalid in England. Which upset every single Scottish married couple. Didn't get anywhere.

    PS: also divorce was much easier in Scotland. Which made for some pretty tense situations, though it is too long since I read the relevant book for me to be able to comment in detail.
    Homosexuality wasn't however, homosexuality was illegal in Scotland until 1981 while England and Wales legalised it in 1967
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077

    Have we covered the rural seats poll by Survation?

    https://www.cla.org.uk/documents/727/CLA_Survation_Report_Final_.pdf


    https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/

    https://www.survation.com/conservatives-face-losses-in-rural-strongholds/

    !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

    Yes, Tories still ahead in rural seats on 41% to 35% for Labour and 13% for the LDs
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,556
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    FPT:

    Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.

    I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
    This is why young English and Welsh couples would elope to Gretna Green, just across the border in Scotland where 16- and 17-year-olds could marry without their parents' consent.
    Historically, up to 20 too, but another factor was the need for prior banns in the C of E churches, or being able to organise a special licence, I seen to recall.

    In fact they didn't need a minister or vicar: just to say they were married in front of witnesses, marriage in Scotland being a simple legal contract without the flummery of calling it a religious sacrament.

    The English upper classes really, really loathed the Scots Law of marriage, and at one time there was a tendency to try and enact a law treating Scots marriages as being invalid in England. Which upset every single Scottish married couple. Didn't get anywhere.

    PS: also divorce was much easier in Scotland. Which made for some pretty tense situations, though it is too long since I read the relevant book for me to be able to comment in detail.
    Homosexuality wasn't however, homosexuality was illegal in Scotland until 1981 while England and Wales legalised it in 1967
    We're talking about the eighteenth century here, not the late C20.
  • Options
    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 642
    HYUFD said:

    Princess Eugenie has had a baby boy, taking 13th place in the line of succession and moving Prince Edward down to 14th

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65785911

    His name is Ernest. To be known as Ernie in tribute to Benny Hill's milkman.


  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,154
    HYUFD said:

    Have we covered the rural seats poll by Survation?

    https://www.cla.org.uk/documents/727/CLA_Survation_Report_Final_.pdf


    https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/

    https://www.survation.com/conservatives-face-losses-in-rural-strongholds/

    !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

    Yes, Tories still ahead in rural seats on 41% to 35% for Labour and 13% for the LDs
    I may not agree with you on many things and while we both vote conservative I would say you have such an ability to make the bad look good I would rather you were on my side
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,080

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.

    SNP 32
    CON 28
    LAB 25

    The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
    My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
    I thought sub samples were banned

    I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen

    Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
    On your last paragraph, jobs and tax revenues will also flow from Labour's green energy policy - lots of both, in fact.

    It's a strange old world when Labour's attempt to make the current government's net zero policy meaningful is derided by the government's own supporters.
This discussion has been closed.