Most of the reported attacks over the past couple of days have been in the obvious place, either side of the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and they don't seem to be meeting notably stiff resistance.
Leon is on his way to Cincinnati to write an article for the Gazette
Maybe he should just copy this one...
This exciting US city that straddles two states has a new direct flight Old-fashioned bourbon, hot takes on spag bol and a new route from London are all reasons to visit historic Cincinnati — and did we mention the bourbon?
Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.
Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
Tories hit 30%. Sunak now at least back to Major 1997 levels . The Tories also avoiding falling below the 29% the Duke of Wellington got in 1832 and their lowest voteshare ever, which is where they were heading under Truss
Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.
Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
He's obviously an awful candidate. Just much better than the others. (Nobody would have considered him before the rise of Trump)
Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.
Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.
Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
He's obviously an awful candidate. Just much better than the others. (Nobody would have considered him before the rise of Trump)
When Carter lost in 1980, the last US President to lose his re election battle after only 1 term of his party in the White House before Trump, the Democrats picked Mondale, Carter's VP, to run against President Reagan in 1984. So there is precedent for a Pence run, unfortunately for him Trump has decided to run again which Carter declined to do in 1984
Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.
Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
He's obviously an awful candidate. Just much better than the others. (Nobody would have considered him before the rise of Trump)
When Carter lost in 1980, the last US President to lose his re election battle after only 1 term of his party in the White House before Trump, the Democrats picked Mondale, Carter's VP, to run against President Reagan in 1984. So there is precedent for a Pence run, unfortunately for him Trump has decided to run again which Carter declined to do in 1984
Equally unfortunately, he makes Mondale look charismatic.
The last thread, heroically, was largely a discussion of early medieval history.
I'm actually rather hoping we can still be discussing this when Leon lands in Cincinnati.
Well, speaking of Nordic folks as we tangentially were, one of the most interesting things to me about early medieval European history is how Scandinavian peoples snuck all around the continent and set the tone for civilisations there for literally centuries to come. Not just the vikings sacking Dublin etc., but founding dynasties in Normandy (and thence England and Sicily) and even kicking off Russia with the Kievan Rus' and Holmgard/Novgorod.
I'm a particular fan of the Varangian Guard who were the bodyguards to successive Byzantine emperors for half a millennium - and wasn't just Norsemen either, but Anglo-Saxons (them again!) too.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
Most of these various candidates have no chance against Trump and most of them surely know they have no chance. They also know the danger of splitting the anti-Trump vote. Yet even Pence is weirdly coy about criticising Trump.
So are most of them doing it because they feel the need to make a token opposition for when they end up backing Trump as the nominee, because they want to be in with a shot in case the law can take care of Trump before the election (hope springs eternal), because they think despite losing they can inflict some wounds on Trump (though given the party, including these candidates, usually back him in the legal matters, I don't know what that could be), or because they are deluded after all?
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
If Trump gets the nomination, I hope Pence or Cheney stand as spoilers.
Their campaign slogan - Trump is a RINO. Vote for a real Republican.
It would be bold but fair.
Of course, whilst all the candidates are supposed to commit to backing the eventual nominee in order to take part in the debates there's obviously not much cost to any of them (Trump included) in doing otherwise.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
I think that description would have been fitting if not for the wholesale Russification after WW2. I've never been there but I think it's very dependent on the Russian military-industrial complex now.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
Pence is a good candidate on paper, a former Vice President who stood up to Trump on Jan 20th but also much more anti Putin and pro Zelensky than DeSantis.
Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
Hard to think of a more unpleasant place to be.
Possibly the surface of Venus, but even then the stench of sulfuric acid in the air (never mind the heat and pressure) is probably more bearable.
The anger I feel at this betrayal is only matched by the anger I felt when Mark Reckless defected to UKIP.
Andy Flower, England’s former head coach who led them to three Ashes series victories, has joined Australia’s backroom staff as coaching consultant for this summer’s series.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
I think that description would have been fitting if not for the wholesale Russification after WW2. I've never been there but I think it's very dependent on the Russian military-industrial complex now.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
No they aren't banned as long as it is made clear it is a subsample.
Labour also up at SNP expense of course but yes Starmer and Miliband's new anti oil policy clearly not gone down well in NE Scotland with the Scottish Conservatives back ahead of them
If Trump gets the nomination, I hope Pence or Cheney stand as spoilers.
Their campaign slogan - Trump is a RINO. Vote for a real Republican.
It would be bold but fair.
Of course, whilst all the candidates are supposed to commit to backing the eventual nominee in order to take part in the debates there's obviously not much cost to any of them (Trump included) in doing otherwise.
I think a fair number of states also have "sore loser" laws preventing someone standing in primaries from then standing as an independent or for another party at a general election if they fail to get the nomination. Although there is debate on applicability to Presidential elections and it isn't all states by any means.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
The Germans don’t want it. Why would they want a piece of land full of people who consider themselves Russian? The German population there was systematically removed post WWII.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
I think that description would have been fitting if not for the wholesale Russification after WW2. I've never been there but I think it's very dependent on the Russian military-industrial complex now.
Yes. It wouldn't be surprising if Kaliningrad was the last bit of the Russian Empire to be lost to Moscow in a scenario that the Russian Federation falls apart.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
The Germans don’t want it. Why would they want a piece of land full of people who consider themselves Russian? The German population there was systematically removed post WWII.
I was thinking more of using it as a propaganda tool. They could try to stir up German nationalism and set them against the Poles, etc.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
Am I wrong in assuming it's like an eastern Alsace - not quite knowing where it belongs, but very happy getting on with life?
I think that description would have been fitting if not for the wholesale Russification after WW2. I've never been there but I think it's very dependent on the Russian military-industrial complex now.
Yes. It wouldn't be surprising if Kaliningrad was the last bit of the Russian Empire to be lost to Moscow in a scenario that the Russian Federation falls apart.
Without Russia backing it, I think Kaliningrad would become a very poor micro state. No country bordering it wants a population of upset Russians.
Without its use as a Russian military base, it wouldn’t be a threat in the area.
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
The Germans don’t want it. Why would they want a piece of land full of people who consider themselves Russian? The German population there was systematically removed post WWII.
I was thinking more of using it as a propaganda tool. They could try to stir up German nationalism and set them against the Poles, etc.
Nearly no one in Germany would want it - trading bits of land with other people living on them is the kind of thinking that Modern Germany has expressly rejected.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
You mean, it's a popular policy?
The YouGov polling on Labour's new oil and gas policy had 40% in support, 32% opposed.
But fascinatingly, every political demographic had more support than opposition.
Net support:
Labour voters: +16 Conservative voters: +2 Lib Dem voters: +11
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
I think they're ok for *collectively* picking up trends. But treating any individual subsample as gospel (even the 'weighted' YouGov ones) is foolish.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
You mean, it's a popular policy?
The YouGov polling on Labour's new oil and gas policy had 40% in support, 32% opposed.
But fascinatingly, every political demographic had more support than opposition.
Net support:
Labour voters: +16 Conservative voters: +2 Lib Dem voters: +11
Anyway, the excruciating Schofield / Willoughby episode has been replaced by media mania over Harry and his court case with coverage to lead the news all week
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
Of course there aren't. What Lukashenko meant was "I've always seen them as our lads and lasses." Big deal.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9%
How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
Anyway, the excruciating Schofield / Willoughby episode has been replaced by media mania over Harry and his court case with coverage to lead the news all week
We really have a very poor media
I nearly went nuts recently when I caught some of a Radio 4 programme consisting of the media talking about how the media talk about the media.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
Only a son of a dick with the first name of Stuart would be so silly...
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9%
How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
Presumably these weird subsamples cancel out to large degree, but they must widen the MOE.
Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.
I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9%
How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
Less than half of them, as many of them are LD target seats rather than Labour
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
Yes but they wanted to have it recognised and sanctions to be lifted. Putin didn't like being frozen out of the G8.
As others say, there are some curiousities in the regional sub samples.
The England VI is Labour 46%, Conservative 30%, Liberal Democrat 13%, Green 5%, Reform 5% and Others 1%. That's a 14.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 9% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The Blue Wall polling will show us the extent to which we can expect tactical voting currently - it was alluded to in yesterday afternoon's thread about shy non-Conservatives.
UNS on those numbers would put the Conservatives on 180 seats but we can easily add some tactical voting to being us much nearer the 1997/2001 seat numbers.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9%
How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
Presumably these weird subsamples cancel out to large degree, but they must widen the MOE.
There's no reason weird subsamples widen the MOE. It's just some of the sub-samples are very small and the poll only aims for demographic balance across the poll as a whole, not within each sub-sample.
Anyway, the excruciating Schofield / Willoughby episode has been replaced by media mania over Harry and his court case with coverage to lead the news all week
We really have a very poor media
I nearly went nuts recently when I caught some of a Radio 4 programme consisting of the media talking about how the media talk about the media.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9%
How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
Less than half of them, as many of them are LD target seats rather than Labour
Bearing in mind this is wholly moot as reading into sub-samples is madness, there is no way the Tories would lose less than half their seats in the region if, by some miracle, Labour got twice the Tory vote in the SW. They'd win a ton of seats from third on the basis of that (although, as I say, the sub-sample is clearly unrealistic).
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9%
How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
Less than half of them, as many of them are LD target seats rather than Labour
If they lost less than half, that's a loss of 23 or less. So you are claiming that the Conservatives would win at least 45% (i.e. 25+) of the 55 seats in the South West with just 26% of the vote.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
You mean, it's a popular policy?
The YouGov polling on Labour's new oil and gas policy had 40% in support, 32% opposed.
But fascinatingly, every political demographic had more support than opposition.
Net support:
Labour voters: +16 Conservative voters: +2 Lib Dem voters: +11
Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.
I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
This is why young English and Welsh couples would elope to Gretna Green, just across the border in Scotland where 16- and 17-year-olds could marry without their parents' consent.
And the King and Queen's horse, Reminder, has just won the 6.45 at Windsor, which should pay for wetting the baby's head. At least this one has a sensible name, unlike his brother August.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9%
How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
Less than half of them, as many of them are LD target seats rather than Labour
If they lost less than half, that's a loss of 23 or less. So you are claiming that the Conservatives would win at least 45% (i.e. 25+) of the 55 seats in the South West with just 26% of the vote.
Do you really think that? Seriously?
Yes, as I said the anti Tory vote is split. In 2019 the LDs got 18% in the South West compared to only 11% UK wide. Much of that high Labour vote in the SW will be huge Labour majorities in Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth, Gloucester, Bournemouth, and Swindon and Falmouth etc while the rural and coastal SW will be split between LDs and Labour for the anti Tory vote
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
Only a son of a dick with the first name of Stuart would be so silly...
Did we establish that Stuart Dickson is all right and there was no sinister reason for his stopping posting?
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
Yes but they wanted to have it recognised and sanctions to be lifted. Putin didn't like being frozen out of the G8.
I am trying to imagine Merkel’s reaction to such an offer.
Probably a bit like the King Of Belgium, when the Kaiser offered him (pre WWI) large chunks of France in return for letting the Germans march threw Belgium when the time came…
The Belgian King made a joke about the days of Louis The Fourteenth being long gone. Then drove home with his ceremonial helmet on backwards. And told the French that the Kaiser was insane.
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
Scottish subsamples are fine, trying to present them as a full blown Scotland poll is verboten.
Only a son of a dick with the first name of Stuart would be so silly...
Did we establish that Stuart Dickson is all right and there was no sinister reason for his stopping posting?
!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
People might moan, but after 4 losses they cannot afford to not be ruthless. NEW: Labour leader @Keir_Starmer responds to criticism over Jamie Driscoll (@MayorJD) not being on the party's candidate longlist for North East Mayor
"We're going through a rigorous selection exercise & I make no apologies for saying we want the highest quality candidates"
Leon is on his way to Cincinnati to write an article for the Gazette
Maybe he should just copy this one...
This exciting US city that straddles two states has a new direct flight Old-fashioned bourbon, hot takes on spag bol and a new route from London are all reasons to visit historic Cincinnati — and did we mention the bourbon?
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
Yes but they wanted to have it recognised and sanctions to be lifted. Putin didn't like being frozen out of the G8.
I am trying to imagine Merkel’s reaction to such an offer.
Probably a bit like the King Of Belgium, when the Kaiser offered him (pre WWI) large chunks of France in return for letting the Germans march threw Belgium when the time came…
The Belgian King made a joke about the days of Louis The Fourteenth being long gone. Then drove home with his ceremonial helmet on backwards. And told the French that the Kaiser was insane.
You wouldn't propose it formally. They could have had someone like Zhirinovsky float the idea and get their proxies in Germany worked up about it. The spirit of Molotov–Ribbentrop was still present at the time.
Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.
I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
This is why young English and Welsh couples would elope to Gretna Green, just across the border in Scotland where 16- and 17-year-olds could marry without their parents' consent.
Historically, up to 20 too, but another factor was the need for prior banns in the C of E churches, or being able to organise a special licence, I seen to recall.
In fact they didn't need a minister or vicar: just to say they were married in front of witnesses, marriage in Scotland being a simple legal contract without the flummery of calling it a religious sacrament.
The English upper classes really, really loathed the Scots Law of marriage, and at one time there was a tendency to try and enact a law treating Scots marriages as being invalid in England. Which upset every single Scottish married couple. Didn't get anywhere.
PS: also divorce was much easier in Scotland. Which made for some pretty tense situations, though it is too long since I read the relevant book for me to be able to comment in detail.
People might moan, but after 4 losses they cannot afford to not be ruthless. NEW: Labour leader @Keir_Starmer responds to criticism over Jamie Driscoll (@MayorJD) not being on the party's candidate longlist for North East Mayor
"We're going through a rigorous selection exercise & I make no apologies for saying we want the highest quality candidates"
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
That would be an ironic outcome for Putin.
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
Are there any Belarus-annexation friendly political organisations in Kaliningrad? I'd have assumed none whatsoever.
I doubt it, but in the realm of blue sky possibilities, the Russian population living there might find that option preferable to being incorporated into Poland or Lithuania and it could consolidate Belarusian independence from Moscow.
No one locally wants Kaliningrad - Putin like dreams of taking land full of people who don’t want to be conquered are not a thing even among the ultranationalists in the region.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
Yes, if they Kremlin had been smarter they could have offered Kaliningrad to Germany in exchange for Western recognition of the annexation of Crimea.
Why offer a swap when you can take by violence? They did not need to ask permission, they had already taken it.
Yes but they wanted to have it recognised and sanctions to be lifted. Putin didn't like being frozen out of the G8.
I am trying to imagine Merkel’s reaction to such an offer.
Probably a bit like the King Of Belgium, when the Kaiser offered him (pre WWI) large chunks of France in return for letting the Germans march threw Belgium when the time came…
The Belgian King made a joke about the days of Louis The Fourteenth being long gone. Then drove home with his ceremonial helmet on backwards. And told the French that the Kaiser was insane.
You wouldn't propose it formally. They could have had someone like Zhirinovsky float the idea and get their proxies in Germany worked up about it. The spirit of Molotov–Ribbentrop was still present at the time.
Even the AfD would say WTAF?
Also the ultranationalists in Russia wouldn't look kindly to selling fellow Russians to the Germans.
Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.
I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
This is why young English and Welsh couples would elope to Gretna Green, just across the border in Scotland where 16- and 17-year-olds could marry without their parents' consent.
Historically, up to 20 too, but another factor was the need for prior banns in the C of E churches, or being able to organise a special licence, I seen to recall.
In fact they didn't need a minister or vicar: just to say they were married in front of witnesses, marriage in Scotland being a simple legal contract without the flummery of calling it a religious sacrament.
The English upper classes really, really loathed the Scots Law of marriage, and at one time there was a tendency to try and enact a law treating Scots marriages as being invalid in England. Which upset every single Scottish married couple. Didn't get anywhere.
PS: also divorce was much easier in Scotland. Which made for some pretty tense situations, though it is too long since I read the relevant book for me to be able to comment in detail.
Homosexuality wasn't however, homosexuality was illegal in Scotland until 1981 while England and Wales legalised it in 1967
!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
Yes, Tories still ahead in rural seats on 41% to 35% for Labour and 13% for the LDs
Hasn't it always been thus, but parental consent is a requirement at 16 and 17? Which is somewhat anomalous as I doubt many of us availed our parents of what we were doing between the age of 16 and 18.
I think you're confusing the age of consent for sex (currently 16 in the UK) and for marriage (currently 18). Parental consent has never mattered, legally, for sex, but it used to be the case that there was a higher age for marriage without parental consent (21, and then 18) and a lower age for marriage with parental consent.
This is why young English and Welsh couples would elope to Gretna Green, just across the border in Scotland where 16- and 17-year-olds could marry without their parents' consent.
Historically, up to 20 too, but another factor was the need for prior banns in the C of E churches, or being able to organise a special licence, I seen to recall.
In fact they didn't need a minister or vicar: just to say they were married in front of witnesses, marriage in Scotland being a simple legal contract without the flummery of calling it a religious sacrament.
The English upper classes really, really loathed the Scots Law of marriage, and at one time there was a tendency to try and enact a law treating Scots marriages as being invalid in England. Which upset every single Scottish married couple. Didn't get anywhere.
PS: also divorce was much easier in Scotland. Which made for some pretty tense situations, though it is too long since I read the relevant book for me to be able to comment in detail.
Homosexuality wasn't however, homosexuality was illegal in Scotland until 1981 while England and Wales legalised it in 1967
We're talking about the eighteenth century here, not the late C20.
!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
Yes, Tories still ahead in rural seats on 41% to 35% for Labour and 13% for the LDs
I may not agree with you on many things and while we both vote conservative I would say you have such an ability to make the bad look good I would rather you were on my side
If anyone fancies a giggle take a look at R&W's Scottish subsample.
SNP 32 CON 28 LAB 25
The person in the flat below HYUFD just drowned
My goodness, that would see the Scottish Conservatives pick up 11 SNP seats, like 2017 the Tories may lose seats to Labour in England but looks like they could even gain seats in Scotland on that subsample with Rishi proving even more popular in Scotland than Theresa May was
I thought sub samples were banned
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
On your last paragraph, jobs and tax revenues will also flow from Labour's green energy policy - lots of both, in fact.
It's a strange old world when Labour's attempt to make the current government's net zero policy meaningful is derided by the government's own supporters.
The Monday open thread – politicalbetting.com
Comments
And for want of a subject - I see Pence is going to declare... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361
...so nothing to prevent us discussing AV then!
Westminster VI (4 June):
Labour 44% (+1)
Conservative 30% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
Green 5% (-2)
Reform UK 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-2)
Changes +/- 28 May
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1665750328439099392?s=46
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65813361
The expression of bemused idiocy rivals that of Tucker Carlson.
Their campaign slogan - Trump is a RINO. Vote for a real Republican.
I'm actually rather hoping we can still be discussing this when Leon lands in Cincinnati.
Although nobody will be able to agree to when it should start.
"CJ
@CasualArtyFan
Russians admit they’ve been pushed out of Novodontesk, after initially claiming the Ukrainian attack was “stopped.”
Notable here is that the 🇺🇦 37th Marine Brigade operates NATO gear, including AMX-10 RC."
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1665747142437220352
Most of the reported attacks over the past couple of days have been in the obvious place, either side of the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and they don't seem to be meeting notably stiff resistance.
Maybe he should just copy this one...
This exciting US city that straddles two states has a new direct flight
Old-fashioned bourbon, hot takes on spag bol and a new route from London are all reasons to visit historic Cincinnati — and did we mention the bourbon?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-exciting-us-city-that-straddles-two-states-has-a-new-direct-flight-qgdm7smdf
I see my suggestion of tomorrow may have been too late.
Problem is he is currently squeezed between Trump and DeSantis
Wow. Perhaps not as good as the first film (for a self-contained story), but excellent nonetheless.Visuals and music knock it out the park, again.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1665741515610804225?s=20
'I have always called the Kaliningrad region my own. It would not be worse off if it was closer to Belarus.'
I'm a particular fan of the Varangian Guard who were the bodyguards to successive Byzantine emperors for half a millennium - and wasn't just Norsemen either, but Anglo-Saxons (them again!) too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65785911
Imagine if Belarus getting Kaliningrad were coupled with the overthrow of Lukashenko and the installation of a democratic regime. You could perhaps even negotiate a corridor to give Minsk access to the Baltic.
So are most of them doing it because they feel the need to make a token opposition for when they end up backing Trump as the nominee, because they want to be in with a shot in case the law can take care of Trump before the election (hope springs eternal), because they think despite losing they can inflict some wounds on Trump (though given the party, including these candidates, usually back him in the legal matters, I don't know what that could be), or because they are deluded after all?
It would be better not to put liabilities into the leadership in the first place, but you can't have everything.
How many 14 point leads did Corbyn manage?
Of course, whilst all the candidates are supposed to commit to backing the eventual nominee in order to take part in the debates there's obviously not much cost to any of them (Trump included) in doing otherwise.
Andy Flower, England’s former head coach who led them to three Ashes series victories, has joined Australia’s backroom staff as coaching consultant for this summer’s series.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/andy-flower-joins-australia-coaching-team-before-ashes-xqv9qklpw
Mark my words.
The rejection of irredentism comes from the analysis that unless all the states near Russia band together, they will be used as chew toys by Russia. As happened in the past. So accepting the existing borders is the first step.
You must write words that make sense!
"84% of 137 middle aged men agree SKS Lab serum applied as part of your 5 yearly routine reduces the appearance of gammony skin."
I do expect the Scons to benefit from the SNP/Labour’s policy of refusing further oil and gas licences particularly in NE Scotland including Aberdeen
Indeed I am coming to the opinion that Starmer's and Miliband's 'just stop oil' policy may well be seen as their Brexit moment in years to come, as the lunacy of banning our own production with all the jobs and tax revenues that flow from the North Sea from this industry
Labour also up at SNP expense of course but yes Starmer and Miliband's new anti oil policy clearly not gone down well in NE Scotland with the Scottish Conservatives back ahead of them
Without its use as a Russian military base, it wouldn’t be a threat in the area.
The YouGov polling on Labour's new oil and gas policy had 40% in support, 32% opposed.
But fascinatingly, every political demographic had more support than opposition.
Net support:
Labour voters: +16
Conservative voters: +2
Lib Dem voters: +11
Remainers: +16
Leavers: +3
https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1665624495569137665
We really have a very poor media
Labour 53%
Con 26%
Lib Dem 12%
Green 9%
How many of their 48 South West seats would the Conservatives lose on that result?
As others say, there are some curiousities in the regional sub samples.
The England VI is Labour 46%, Conservative 30%, Liberal Democrat 13%, Green 5%, Reform 5% and Others 1%. That's a 14.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 9% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The Blue Wall polling will show us the extent to which we can expect tactical voting currently - it was alluded to in yesterday afternoon's thread about shy non-Conservatives.
UNS on those numbers would put the Conservatives on 180 seats but we can easily add some tactical voting to being us much nearer the 1997/2001 seat numbers.
Do you really think that? Seriously?
Londoners are most supportive, 46% of Londoners back a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to 40% of UK voters overall who back such a ban
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1
Probably a bit like the King Of Belgium, when the Kaiser offered him (pre WWI) large chunks of France in return for letting the Germans march threw Belgium when the time came…
The Belgian King made a joke about the days of Louis The Fourteenth being long gone. Then drove home with his ceremonial helmet on backwards. And told the French that the Kaiser was insane.
https://www.cla.org.uk/documents/727/CLA_Survation_Report_Final_.pdf
https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/
https://www.survation.com/conservatives-face-losses-in-rural-strongholds/
!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
NEW: Labour leader @Keir_Starmer responds to criticism over Jamie Driscoll (@MayorJD) not being on the party's candidate longlist for North East Mayor
"We're going through a rigorous selection exercise & I make no apologies for saying we want the highest quality candidates"
https://twitter.com/TomSheldrickITV/status/1665736108100005890?cxt=HHwWhMC9zcaK8Z0uAAAA
https://www.americanmary.com/homecoming
In fact they didn't need a minister or vicar: just to say they were married in front of witnesses, marriage in Scotland being a simple legal contract without the flummery of calling it a religious sacrament.
The English upper classes really, really loathed the Scots Law of marriage, and at one time there was a tendency to try and enact a law treating Scots marriages as being invalid in England. Which upset every single Scottish married couple. Didn't get anywhere.
PS: also divorce was much easier in Scotland. Which made for some pretty tense situations, though it is too long since I read the relevant book for me to be able to comment in detail.
As a spin-off, what a bunch of!
Also the ultranationalists in Russia wouldn't look kindly to selling fellow Russians to the Germans.
It's a strange old world when Labour's attempt to make the current government's net zero policy meaningful is derided by the government's own supporters.