TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
You mean GDP is rubbish.
But for many millions - oldies, GenXers who have paid off their mortgages, teenagers who want a job things are very nice.
For other groups things aren't so good with the apogee of crap likely being a young, southern graduate.
Not so good for young people who want to buy a house, eventually retire, raise a family, work a job above min wage and not zero hours however
Young people just ask for the moon thesedays.
REally? Surely the #MeToo movement disapproves of mooning?
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
You mean GDP is rubbish.
But for many millions - oldies, GenXers who have paid off their mortgages, teenagers who want a job things are very nice.
For other groups things aren't so good with the apogee of crap likely being a young, southern graduate.
Not so good for young people who want to buy a house, eventually retire, raise a family, work a job above min wage and not zero hours however
Young people just ask for the moon thesedays.
I am assuming that is being sarcastic
Yes, but it'd see me adopted as a NIMBY parliamentary candidate by almost any political party nonetheless.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
Why did the Tories lose in 1997 in that case? The economy was doing extremely well. 1994 registered the highest growth of any year since the 1960s.
The economy was doing well despite the government not because of it.
The government's economic strategy had been ERM membership with 15% interest rates to maintain it.
Do you think the proverbial golden economic legacy left to New Labour was entirely by chance?
Yes I think it was, the erm debacle actually worked out for us but I have no doubt major and senior politicians believed it was the right thing to do which is why they fought to keep us in. The fact that not being able to stay in worked out well was a complete accident
Why did the Tories lose in 1997 in that case? The economy was doing extremely well. 1994 registered the highest growth of any year since the 1960s.
The economy was doing well despite the government not because of it.
The government's economic strategy had been ERM membership with 15% interest rates to maintain it.
Do you think the proverbial golden economic legacy left to New Labour was entirely by chance?
Yes I think it was, the erm debacle actually worked out for us but I have no doubt major and senior politicians believed it was the right thing to do which is why they fought to keep us in. The fact that not being able to stay in worked out well was a complete accident
It also, in some ways, was even more damaging to their credibility.
'Britain is booming!'
'Why?'
'Because we left the ERM!'
'Really? Then why did you take us in and spend literally billions trying to keep us in?'
'Because we screwed up!'
'So basically, we're doing well because you're completely incompetent and don't know what you're doing?'
'That's right!'
'Then why should we trust you?'
'Er...because we set up a cones hotline!'
*Voter leaves, shaking head and resolving to vote Labour.*
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
You mean GDP is rubbish.
But for many millions - oldies, GenXers who have paid off their mortgages, teenagers who want a job things are very nice.
For other groups things aren't so good with the apogee of crap likely being a young, southern graduate.
Not so good for young people who want to buy a house, eventually retire, raise a family, work a job above min wage and not zero hours however
Young people just ask for the moon thesedays.
I am assuming that is being sarcastic
Yes, but it'd see me adopted as a NIMBY parliamentary candidate by almost any political party nonetheless.
Which is precisely the problem....a majority of voters voting for largesse for them just as the Tytler quote predicted.
I also found it ironic someone calling it out as 200 years old when the democratic system its criticizing comes from athens of the 600bc era
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
I see no evidence of the Tories “desperately trying to fix the economy”.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
I think it's more Johnson that's good at making bastards.
Why did the Tories lose in 1997 in that case? The economy was doing extremely well. 1994 registered the highest growth of any year since the 1960s.
The economy was doing well despite the government not because of it.
The government's economic strategy had been ERM membership with 15% interest rates to maintain it.
Do you think the proverbial golden economic legacy left to New Labour was entirely by chance?
Yes I think it was, the erm debacle actually worked out for us but I have no doubt major and senior politicians believed it was the right thing to do which is why they fought to keep us in. The fact that not being able to stay in worked out well was a complete accident
It also, in some ways, was even more damaging to their credibility.
'Britain is booming!'
'Why?'
'Because we left the ERM!'
'Really? Then why did you take us in and spend literally billions trying to keep us in?'
'Because we screwed up!'
'So basically, we're doing well because you're completely incompetent and don't know what you're doing?'
'That's right!'
'Then why should we trust you?'
'Er...because we set up a cones hotline!'
*Voter leaves, shaking head and resolving to vote Labour.*
Why did the Tories lose in 1997 in that case? The economy was doing extremely well. 1994 registered the highest growth of any year since the 1960s.
The economy was doing well despite the government not because of it.
The government's economic strategy had been ERM membership with 15% interest rates to maintain it.
Do you think the proverbial golden economic legacy left to New Labour was entirely by chance?
Yes I think it was, the erm debacle actually worked out for us but I have no doubt major and senior politicians believed it was the right thing to do which is why they fought to keep us in. The fact that not being able to stay in worked out well was a complete accident
It also, in some ways, was even more damaging to their credibility.
'Britain is booming!'
'Why?'
'Because we left the ERM!'
'Really? Then why did you take us in and spend literally billions trying to keep us in?'
'Because we screwed up!'
'So basically, we're doing well because you're completely incompetent and don't know what you're doing?'
'That's right!'
'Then why should we trust you?'
'Er...because we set up a cones hotline!'
*Voter leaves, shaking head and resolving to vote Labour.*
Precisely
The irony is, of course, that Smith and Brown were even more in favour of the ERM and were genuinely furious when Britain left.
But, because they were not in power, that gets forgotten.
Just as Cameron and Osborne's unfortunate record on proposed tax and financial regulation was not a barrier to their taking office in 2010. It's the government get the blame no matter what the opposition do.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
You mean GDP is rubbish.
But for many millions - oldies, GenXers who have paid off their mortgages, teenagers who want a job things are very nice.
For other groups things aren't so good with the apogee of crap likely being a young, southern graduate.
Those “other groups” are sadly the ones who need to deliver economic growth. Ie, the non-retired.
I heard on the Merryn Somerset Webb podcast this morning (but can’t validate separately) that the UK is now experiencing a brain drain again, like it did in the 70s.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
I think it's more Johnson that's good at making bastards.
I’m trying not to use that word. It’s ugly. And offensive, and should never be directed at a child.
I used it very carefully, and it’s a specific reference to Major’s depiction of those people in his party mining the same vein in the ‘90s. He didn’t direct it at children.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
I think it's more Johnson that's good at making bastards.
I’m trying not to use that word. It’s ugly. And offensive, and should never be directed at a child.
I used it very carefully, and it’s a specific reference to Major’s depiction in the ‘90s. He didn’t direct it at children.
Johnson's problem is it's not just his head, it's his whole being.
Incidentally, you will note I didn't refer to children. It was designed to be ambiguous between his colourful marital history and his talent for causing trouble among backbenchers.
Why did the Tories lose in 1997 in that case? The economy was doing extremely well. 1994 registered the highest growth of any year since the 1960s.
The economy was doing well despite the government not because of it.
The government's economic strategy had been ERM membership with 15% interest rates to maintain it.
Do you think the proverbial golden economic legacy left to New Labour was entirely by chance?
Yes I think it was, the erm debacle actually worked out for us but I have no doubt major and senior politicians believed it was the right thing to do which is why they fought to keep us in. The fact that not being able to stay in worked out well was a complete accident
It also, in some ways, was even more damaging to their credibility.
'Britain is booming!'
'Why?'
'Because we left the ERM!'
'Really? Then why did you take us in and spend literally billions trying to keep us in?'
'Because we screwed up!'
'So basically, we're doing well because you're completely incompetent and don't know what you're doing?'
'That's right!'
'Then why should we trust you?'
'Er...because we set up a cones hotline!'
*Voter leaves, shaking head and resolving to vote Labour.*
Precisely
The irony is, of course, that Smith and Brown were even more in favour of the ERM and were genuinely furious when Britain left.
But, because they were not in power, that gets forgotten.
Just as Cameron and Osborne's unfortunate record on proposed tax and financial regulation was not a barrier to their taking office in 2010. It's the government get the blame no matter what the opposition do.
Which points to the exact problem I have been highlighting
Didn't think the erm was a good thing? Who could you vote for? Cons in favour, labour in favour , no idea of lib dem policy but find it hard to imagine them not in favour
All major parties in favour of something that proved to be a huge mistake.
The same was true of the eu....all major parties in favour, yes you could vote ukip however a general election is about everything not a single issue and too many found everything but the eu stance of ukip repugnant
I mean, if you want to design a system of government that explicitly and deliberately does away with any possibility of joined up thinking and produces an incoherent mess by design then by jove @Pagan2 has nailed it.
Oh like we have that now don't be naive there is no joined up thinking in our politics currently just tribal ranting wankers like you
You're not confusing him with me, are you?
No you aren't actually a ranter, you do have a blind spot for believing that if you change a system people won't just adapt to keep what you perceive as advantage. An example is abolishing private schools where you don't believe that those people wont either send their kids to schools abroad if very rich or buy up properties in good school cachement area's to push poorer people out of the good school cachement areas if medium rich, or choose to employ private tutors if only slightly rich.
"Not a ranter" - I'll take that and count myself fortunate.
But pls note re your specific complaint, the 'blind spot' is to my mind more a refusal to let the impossibility of perfection prevent the pursuit of significant improvement.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
I think it's more Johnson that's good at making bastards.
I’m trying not to use that word. It’s ugly. And offensive, and should never be directed at a child.
I used it very carefully, and it’s a specific reference to Major’s depiction in the ‘90s. He didn’t direct it at children.
Historians will use the word bastard with far less negative connotations than the average person, due to how common it was among elites, if he was even refering to the children (as he notes Boris can stir up the Majorian type bastards a lot). I don't think it likely the good doctor is casting any aspersions on the children of Boris for the marital status of their parents.
Gove is also right that politeness and courtesy are devastating weapons in debate, far more effective than bombast and vituperation.
Jacob Rees-Mogg's political career explained. He is unfailingly polite.
Yes but his is a bullying, deeply mannered 'politeness' that he wields like a sword in the class war on behalf of privilege and the forces of reaction. It's quite unpleasant to witness.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is as "polite" as the snootiest head waiter imaginable. Or unimaginable.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
You mean GDP is rubbish.
But for many millions - oldies, GenXers who have paid off their mortgages, teenagers who want a job things are very nice.
For other groups things aren't so good with the apogee of crap likely being a young, southern graduate.
Those “other groups” are sadly the ones who need to deliver economic growth. Ie, the non-retired.
I heard on the Merryn Somerset Webb podcast this morning (but can’t validate separately) that the UK is now experiencing a brain drain again, like it did in the 70s.
Well, it wouldn't be a surprise, would it? British society despises its youth and has done for a long time.
Gove is also right that politeness and courtesy are devastating weapons in debate, far more effective than bombast and vituperation.
Jacob Rees-Mogg's political career explained. He is unfailingly polite.
Yes but his is a bullying, deeply mannered 'politeness' that he wields like a sword in the class war on behalf of privilege and the forces of reaction. It's quite unpleasant to witness.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is as "polite" as the snootiest head waiter imaginable. Or unimaginable.
Gove is also right that politeness and courtesy are devastating weapons in debate, far more effective than bombast and vituperation.
Jacob Rees-Mogg's political career explained. He is unfailingly polite.
Yes but his is a bullying, deeply mannered 'politeness' that he wields like a sword in the class war on behalf of privilege and the forces of reaction. It's quite unpleasant to witness.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is as "polite" as the snootiest head waiter imaginable. Or unimaginable.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
I see no evidence of the Tories “desperately trying to fix the economy”.
Which is the other problem with the "how far down the shopping list" approach to government budgeting.
There are lots of decisions that the government takes that don't look like tax'n'spend but feed into the calculations as well. Making it easier to build stuff is one, the tradeoff of autonomy vs. convenience with international trade is another. Fix those, grow the economy a bit, and the budget numbers have at least got a chance of coming closer to adding up. Trying to balance the budget without considering them is a fool's errand.
But then we come back to the electoral coalition that the modern Conservative Party are superglued to.
Gove is also right that politeness and courtesy are devastating weapons in debate, far more effective than bombast and vituperation.
Jacob Rees-Mogg's political career explained. He is unfailingly polite.
Yes but his is a bullying, deeply mannered 'politeness' that he wields like a sword in the class war on behalf of privilege and the forces of reaction. It's quite unpleasant to witness.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is as "polite" as the snootiest head waiter imaginable. Or unimaginable.
And about as efficient.
I hope the headline didn't trigger you too badly.
I've just pulled over to check the map.
I'll be there with pineapple pizza for you to eat and a Welsh rugby shirt for you to wear in about an hour.
In consideration of the fact the header isn't without merit I will permit you to not wear the Max Verstappen face mask.
The Tories want us to believe that the last 13 years are not a failure - they seem to now acknowledge they have failed - but instead it was the Labour Party, the Civil Service, leftie lawyers and young people under the age of 95 living in South East England.
This is not the policy of a party that has much more to offer the electorate.
On topic, I'm not convinced at all by the usefulness of the most important issues polling in this discussion, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, we got told on here repeatedly in the early 2010s on the basis of such polling that few cared about the EU, but the moment voters were offered a real choice, it dominated political life in this country for the next half decade.
Secondly, if you look at Gallup's similar polling here in America, economic issues dominate cultural matters, too, but that's not reflected at all in the public debate, no doubt because it's much easier to articulate a comprehensible, binary position on, say, transgender bathrooms than on interest rates. (e.g. 29% say the economy is the most important issue, vs 8% immigration and 1% LGBT issues).
Thirdly, the Conservative led administrations of the last 13 years have actually been pretty difficult to distinguish from the last Labour government on many cultural issues in their actions, whatever their rhetoric has been. They have tolerated waves of immigration, repeatedly failing to reduce it as they promised, kept things like hate crime and hate speech laws in place, not done anything much when civil servants put pronouns on their emails, etc.
Whether a serious attempt to offer the voters a choice on cultural issues/incite a culture war in this country by the government would succeed, I'm not sure. But I don't think the polling is proof that it wouldn't.
On topic, I'm not convinced at all by the usefulness of the most important issues polling in this discussion, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, we got told on here repeatedly in the early 2010s on the basis of such polling that few cared about the EU, but the moment voters were offered a real choice, it dominated political life in this country for the next half decade.
Secondly, if you look at Gallup's similar polling here in America, economic issues dominate cultural matters, too, but that's not reflected at all in the public debate, no doubt because it's much easier to articulate a comprehensible, binary position on, say, transgender bathrooms than on interest rates.
Thirdly, the Conservative led administrations of the last 13 years have actually been pretty difficult to distinguish from the last Labour government on many cultural issues in their actions, whatever their rhetoric has been. They have tolerated waves of immigration, repeatedly failing to reduce it as they promised, kept things like hate crime and hate speech laws in place, not done anything much when civil servants put pronouns on their emails, etc.
Whether a serious attempt to offer the voters a choice on cultural issues/incite a culture war in this country by the government would succeed, I'm not sure. But I don't think the polling is proof that it wouldn't.
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship."
Tytler
We either sort things out or we be Nero fiddling while Rome burns because that quote sums up where we are now
Hahahaha, that quote is over 200 years old. Why haven't all the democracies degenerated into dictatorships in all that time?
I point you at january 6th in the states and peoples concerns. Also most democracies including are own are not yet really 200 years old because most democracies that we would recognise as democracies are not 200 years old. Ours for example is only about 100 years old since the universal franchise.
I can't seeing it lasting another 100 years if we carry on as we are
I'm struggling to see January 6th as the result of loose fiscal policy, however, so it doesn't really fit your thesis.
Americans are generally incensed about paying tax to people they don't think deserve it. The rust belt in particular which support trump see it as democrats featherbedding their supporters and areas at the expense of themselves. (For info no I don't agree that is truth just their perception).
Certainly though in the UK we have a homeowner/pensioner/hoping for inheritance vote....voting for parties which will support largesse and a class of people who lose out mostly the young because of those policies who resent it, therefore the rise in "hey boomer" type insults.
When democracy stops working for one portion of a nation it is a source of potential trouble.
I have no doubt whichever party wins in 2024 the policies will support those that are already supported more than those currently losing out
While it's true that Republicans often believe that Democrats featherbed their supporters, that wasn't at any point a rallying cry or slogan or talking point of the Jan 6 rioters. Their complaint was their erroneous belief that Trump won the 2020 election but for fraud/a global paedophile conspiracy.
I accept your general point about polarisation in today's politics with different groups wanting public largesse directed towards them, but I'm not seeing the evidence for your specific thesis. January 6th wasn't democracy eroded by people voting for public largesse. January 6th was democracy eroded by fascistic lies. Ergo, I don't the solution being a radical new approach to determining public funding priorities: I see the solution being to resist fascistic lies.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
You mean GDP is rubbish.
But for many millions - oldies, GenXers who have paid off their mortgages, teenagers who want a job things are very nice.
For other groups things aren't so good with the apogee of crap likely being a young, southern graduate.
Those “other groups” are sadly the ones who need to deliver economic growth. Ie, the non-retired.
I heard on the Merryn Somerset Webb podcast this morning (but can’t validate separately) that the UK is now experiencing a brain drain again, like it did in the 70s.
Well, it wouldn't be a surprise, would it? British society despises its youth and has done for a long time.
I don’t know if that’s completely true. London and the main cities were notably vibrant for a long while, hence the attraction to European (and other youth).
The Tories want us to believe that the last 13 years are not a failure - they seem to now acknowledge they have failed - but instead it was the Labour Party, the Civil Service, leftie lawyers and young people under the age of 95 living in South East England.
This is not the policy of a party that has much more to offer the electorate.
The original sin of the 2010-2024 Tory government was coming into office without a plan to sort out the housing market after the Blair/Brown bubble. Instead they just continued essentially the same policies.
Gove is also right that politeness and courtesy are devastating weapons in debate, far more effective than bombast and vituperation.
Jacob Rees-Mogg's political career explained. He is unfailingly polite.
Rees-Mogg is Uriah Heep. Like @DavidL I rate politeness, but it needs to be sincere.
Yep, once you can fake sincerity you've got it made.
Indeed. Although I think in Gove's case it's not faked.and he's a genuinely courteous politician. I say that as someone who doesn't think much of Gove's politics.
The Tories want us to believe that the last 13 years are not a failure - they seem to now acknowledge they have failed - but instead it was the Labour Party, the Civil Service, leftie lawyers and young people under the age of 95 living in South East England.
This is not the policy of a party that has much more to offer the electorate.
The original sin of the 2010-2024 Tory government was coming into office without a plan to sort out the housing market after the Blair/Brown bubble. Instead they just continued essentially the same policies.
I’d argue that rising house prices was actually one of their core policies.
The Tories want us to believe that the last 13 years are not a failure - they seem to now acknowledge they have failed - but instead it was the Labour Party, the Civil Service, leftie lawyers and young people under the age of 95 living in South East England.
This is not the policy of a party that has much more to offer the electorate.
The original sin of the 2010-2024 Tory government was coming into office without a plan to sort out the housing market after the Blair/Brown bubble. Instead they just continued essentially the same policies.
The story of the Tory party from 2010-24 is one of mismanaged decline with zero desire to focus on anything with a lifecycle or payback longer than 6-12 months
The Tories want us to believe that the last 13 years are not a failure - they seem to now acknowledge they have failed - but instead it was the Labour Party, the Civil Service, leftie lawyers and young people under the age of 95 living in South East England.
This is not the policy of a party that has much more to offer the electorate.
The original sin of the 2010-2024 Tory government was coming into office without a plan to sort out the housing market after the Blair/Brown bubble. Instead they just continued essentially the same policies.
I’d argue that rising house prices was actually one of their core policies.
Keeping house prices at current levels so people didn’t feel poorer was a core policy.
The fact it resulted in prices rising because they missed a rising population is a different matter.
I mean, if you want to design a system of government that explicitly and deliberately does away with any possibility of joined up thinking and produces an incoherent mess by design then by jove @Pagan2 has nailed it.
Oh like we have that now don't be naive there is no joined up thinking in our politics currently just tribal ranting wankers like you
You're not confusing him with me, are you?
No you aren't actually a ranter, you do have a blind spot for believing that if you change a system people won't just adapt to keep what you perceive as advantage. An example is abolishing private schools where you don't believe that those people wont either send their kids to schools abroad if very rich or buy up properties in good school cachement area's to push poorer people out of the good school cachement areas if medium rich, or choose to employ private tutors if only slightly rich.
"Not a ranter" - I'll take that and count myself fortunate.
But pls note re your specific complaint, the 'blind spot' is to my mind more a refusal to let the impossibility of perfection prevent the pursuit of significant improvement.
It wasnt about the impossibility of perfection. It was about the fact it may well make things worse for poor people. Currently poor people can live in the cachement area for good schools. Abolish private schools and a lot of those houses they live in will get purchased to get the offspring of the better off into those good state schools. Less poor people will likely make those state schools even better....not because the children of poor people are thicker but because rich parents will donate to the schools and push their kids
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
You mean GDP is rubbish.
But for many millions - oldies, GenXers who have paid off their mortgages, teenagers who want a job things are very nice.
For other groups things aren't so good with the apogee of crap likely being a young, southern graduate.
Those “other groups” are sadly the ones who need to deliver economic growth. Ie, the non-retired.
I heard on the Merryn Somerset Webb podcast this morning (but can’t validate separately) that the UK is now experiencing a brain drain again, like it did in the 70s.
Well, it wouldn't be a surprise, would it? British society despises its youth and has done for a long time.
I don’t know if that’s completely true. London and the main cities were notably vibrant for a long while, hence the attraction to European (and other youth).
That ignores the distinction between "its youth" and "youth". Seeing young people as an economic or cultural resource to be imported isn't exactly acting as custodians for the next generation.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
I see no evidence of the Tories “desperately trying to fix the economy”.
True. Although tbf they are out soon and there's no time now for them to fix the damage done. What I wouldn't mind hearing is an apology for that.
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship."
Tytler
We either sort things out or we be Nero fiddling while Rome burns because that quote sums up where we are now
Hahahaha, that quote is over 200 years old. Why haven't all the democracies degenerated into dictatorships in all that time?
I point you at january 6th in the states and peoples concerns. Also most democracies including are own are not yet really 200 years old because most democracies that we would recognise as democracies are not 200 years old. Ours for example is only about 100 years old since the universal franchise.
I can't seeing it lasting another 100 years if we carry on as we are
I'm struggling to see January 6th as the result of loose fiscal policy, however, so it doesn't really fit your thesis.
Americans are generally incensed about paying tax to people they don't think deserve it. The rust belt in particular which support trump see it as democrats featherbedding their supporters and areas at the expense of themselves. (For info no I don't agree that is truth just their perception).
Certainly though in the UK we have a homeowner/pensioner/hoping for inheritance vote....voting for parties which will support largesse and a class of people who lose out mostly the young because of those policies who resent it, therefore the rise in "hey boomer" type insults.
When democracy stops working for one portion of a nation it is a source of potential trouble.
I have no doubt whichever party wins in 2024 the policies will support those that are already supported more than those currently losing out
While it's true that Republicans often believe that Democrats featherbed their supporters, that wasn't at any point a rallying cry or slogan or talking point of the Jan 6 rioters. Their complaint was their erroneous belief that Trump won the 2020 election but for fraud/a global paedophile conspiracy.
I accept your general point about polarisation in today's politics with different groups wanting public largesse directed towards them, but I'm not seeing the evidence for your specific thesis. January 6th wasn't democracy eroded by people voting for public largesse. January 6th was democracy eroded by fascistic lies. Ergo, I don't the solution being a radical new approach to determining public funding priorities: I see the solution being to resist fascistic lies.
Trump was elected in the first place to be in that position because people thought largesse was being misdirected. When he lost people supported him claiming he didnt because they saw a return to largesse for others and had enough and were willing to throw away democracy
Perhaps most annoying thing re: Jacob Rees-Mogg and his ilk, is the faux aristo phoniness, seeing as how the lowliest mutt at the dog pound can boast a pedigree far more impressive than JRM.
His upper-crust, upper-class pomp & circumstance being VERY thin veneer for THIS Eton Mess.
It's lucky for Leeds that their ride or die game is Spurs at home. I might have some of that
They could win and still finish 19th. Only Leicester have it in their own hands (for now)
It was more a comment on the state of Spurs at this present.moment in time than Big Sam's dirty Leeds.
It makes not a jot to me who the two out of three are. Leicester are a midlands club, so I would prefer them to stay up. It would be a shame if Everton lost their top flight longevity status and Leeds? Well who cares about Leeds? really?
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship."
Tytler
We either sort things out or we be Nero fiddling while Rome burns because that quote sums up where we are now
Hahahaha, that quote is over 200 years old. Why haven't all the democracies degenerated into dictatorships in all that time?
I point you at january 6th in the states and peoples concerns. Also most democracies including are own are not yet really 200 years old because most democracies that we would recognise as democracies are not 200 years old. Ours for example is only about 100 years old since the universal franchise.
I can't seeing it lasting another 100 years if we carry on as we are
I'm struggling to see January 6th as the result of loose fiscal policy, however, so it doesn't really fit your thesis.
Americans are generally incensed about paying tax to people they don't think deserve it. The rust belt in particular which support trump see it as democrats featherbedding their supporters and areas at the expense of themselves. (For info no I don't agree that is truth just their perception).
Certainly though in the UK we have a homeowner/pensioner/hoping for inheritance vote....voting for parties which will support largesse and a class of people who lose out mostly the young because of those policies who resent it, therefore the rise in "hey boomer" type insults.
When democracy stops working for one portion of a nation it is a source of potential trouble.
I have no doubt whichever party wins in 2024 the policies will support those that are already supported more than those currently losing out
While it's true that Republicans often believe that Democrats featherbed their supporters, that wasn't at any point a rallying cry or slogan or talking point of the Jan 6 rioters. Their complaint was their erroneous belief that Trump won the 2020 election but for fraud/a global paedophile conspiracy.
I accept your general point about polarisation in today's politics with different groups wanting public largesse directed towards them, but I'm not seeing the evidence for your specific thesis. January 6th wasn't democracy eroded by people voting for public largesse. January 6th was democracy eroded by fascistic lies. Ergo, I don't the solution being a radical new approach to determining public funding priorities: I see the solution being to resist fascistic lies.
Trump was elected in the first place to be in that position because people thought largesse was being misdirected. When he lost people supported him claiming he didnt because they saw a return to largesse for others and had enough and were willing to throw away democracy
Trump’s too winning slogans were “build the wall” and “lock her up”, neither of which quite fits your model.
Again, while, yes, many of his supporters did feel largesse was misdirected, that’s one aspect of a complex political phenomenon. And, again, the January 6th rioters weren’t a representative cross-section of people who voted for Trump.
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship."
Tytler
We either sort things out or we be Nero fiddling while Rome burns because that quote sums up where we are now
Hahahaha, that quote is over 200 years old. Why haven't all the democracies degenerated into dictatorships in all that time?
I point you at january 6th in the states and peoples concerns. Also most democracies including are own are not yet really 200 years old because most democracies that we would recognise as democracies are not 200 years old. Ours for example is only about 100 years old since the universal franchise.
I can't seeing it lasting another 100 years if we carry on as we are
I'm struggling to see January 6th as the result of loose fiscal policy, however, so it doesn't really fit your thesis.
Americans are generally incensed about paying tax to people they don't think deserve it. The rust belt in particular which support trump see it as democrats featherbedding their supporters and areas at the expense of themselves. (For info no I don't agree that is truth just their perception).
Certainly though in the UK we have a homeowner/pensioner/hoping for inheritance vote....voting for parties which will support largesse and a class of people who lose out mostly the young because of those policies who resent it, therefore the rise in "hey boomer" type insults.
When democracy stops working for one portion of a nation it is a source of potential trouble.
I have no doubt whichever party wins in 2024 the policies will support those that are already supported more than those currently losing out
While it's true that Republicans often believe that Democrats featherbed their supporters, that wasn't at any point a rallying cry or slogan or talking point of the Jan 6 rioters. Their complaint was their erroneous belief that Trump won the 2020 election but for fraud/a global paedophile conspiracy.
I accept your general point about polarisation in today's politics with different groups wanting public largesse directed towards them, but I'm not seeing the evidence for your specific thesis. January 6th wasn't democracy eroded by people voting for public largesse. January 6th was democracy eroded by fascistic lies. Ergo, I don't the solution being a radical new approach to determining public funding priorities: I see the solution being to resist fascistic lies.
Trump was elected in the first place to be in that position because people thought largesse was being misdirected. When he lost people supported him claiming he didnt because they saw a return to largesse for others and had enough and were willing to throw away democracy
Trump’s too winning slogans were “build the wall” and “lock her up”, neither of which quite fits your model.
Again, while, yes, many of his supporters did feel largesse was misdirected, that’s one aspect of a complex political phenomenon. And, again, the January 6th rioters weren’t a representative cross-section of people who voted for Trump.
Are you arguing here that democracy isn't in trouble in America and it started with trump. Build the wall was also about largesse, people feeling that immigrants were keeping their wages lower
Ok, completely off topic and I have to go and teach in a minute, but:
I'm pondering whether to buy a new desk chair. My current one isn't very good and is getting rather tatty. If I buy one, I'd like it to be a decent one rather than the bargain basement ones I've bought from Staples in the past (well, obviously I won't be buying from them now anyway)!
Anyone got any recommendations for something really good? I'm willing to splash out a bit within reason because after the year I've had I feel I've earned the right to pamper myself a bit.
(THanks to @Pagan2 for his reply on the previous thread where this somehow ended up!)
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship."
Tytler
We either sort things out or we be Nero fiddling while Rome burns because that quote sums up where we are now
Hahahaha, that quote is over 200 years old. Why haven't all the democracies degenerated into dictatorships in all that time?
I point you at january 6th in the states and peoples concerns. Also most democracies including are own are not yet really 200 years old because most democracies that we would recognise as democracies are not 200 years old. Ours for example is only about 100 years old since the universal franchise.
I can't seeing it lasting another 100 years if we carry on as we are
I'm struggling to see January 6th as the result of loose fiscal policy, however, so it doesn't really fit your thesis.
Americans are generally incensed about paying tax to people they don't think deserve it. The rust belt in particular which support trump see it as democrats featherbedding their supporters and areas at the expense of themselves. (For info no I don't agree that is truth just their perception).
Certainly though in the UK we have a homeowner/pensioner/hoping for inheritance vote....voting for parties which will support largesse and a class of people who lose out mostly the young because of those policies who resent it, therefore the rise in "hey boomer" type insults.
When democracy stops working for one portion of a nation it is a source of potential trouble.
I have no doubt whichever party wins in 2024 the policies will support those that are already supported more than those currently losing out
While it's true that Republicans often believe that Democrats featherbed their supporters, that wasn't at any point a rallying cry or slogan or talking point of the Jan 6 rioters. Their complaint was their erroneous belief that Trump won the 2020 election but for fraud/a global paedophile conspiracy.
I accept your general point about polarisation in today's politics with different groups wanting public largesse directed towards them, but I'm not seeing the evidence for your specific thesis. January 6th wasn't democracy eroded by people voting for public largesse. January 6th was democracy eroded by fascistic lies. Ergo, I don't the solution being a radical new approach to determining public funding priorities: I see the solution being to resist fascistic lies.
Trump was elected in the first place to be in that position because people thought largesse was being misdirected. When he lost people supported him claiming he didnt because they saw a return to largesse for others and had enough and were willing to throw away democracy
Trump’s too winning slogans were “build the wall” and “lock her up”, neither of which quite fits your model.
Again, while, yes, many of his supporters did feel largesse was misdirected, that’s one aspect of a complex political phenomenon. And, again, the January 6th rioters weren’t a representative cross-section of people who voted for Trump.
Are you arguing here that democracy isn't in trouble in America and it started with trump. Build the wall was also about largesse, people feeling that immigrants were keeping their wages lower
I’m arguing that democracy is in trouble in the US because Trump lies and doesn’t respect the rule of law, after years of the Republican Party lying and not respecting the rule of law.
On topic. No. Michael Gove is very wrong actually. This is how I would explain it. As Miriam Cates says, seeking to strengthen families, communities and the nation, through providing homes and jobs, is the correct policy position - who would disagree with that? So why drop any talk about strengthening families community and our nation and talk nothing but NHS and the economy? The National Conservative conference and the values of family, community and nation at its heart, was not all bad, these types of attacks, such as it was a waste of time promoting family and communities, you should only talk about the NHS and economy as no one is listening, are very petty and shallow minded. If no one is listening to what you feel is important, this is precisely the reason to talk about it and get their attention.
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship."
Tytler
We either sort things out or we be Nero fiddling while Rome burns because that quote sums up where we are now
Hahahaha, that quote is over 200 years old. Why haven't all the democracies degenerated into dictatorships in all that time?
I point you at january 6th in the states and peoples concerns. Also most democracies including are own are not yet really 200 years old because most democracies that we would recognise as democracies are not 200 years old. Ours for example is only about 100 years old since the universal franchise.
I can't seeing it lasting another 100 years if we carry on as we are
I'm struggling to see January 6th as the result of loose fiscal policy, however, so it doesn't really fit your thesis.
Americans are generally incensed about paying tax to people they don't think deserve it. The rust belt in particular which support trump see it as democrats featherbedding their supporters and areas at the expense of themselves. (For info no I don't agree that is truth just their perception).
Certainly though in the UK we have a homeowner/pensioner/hoping for inheritance vote....voting for parties which will support largesse and a class of people who lose out mostly the young because of those policies who resent it, therefore the rise in "hey boomer" type insults.
When democracy stops working for one portion of a nation it is a source of potential trouble.
I have no doubt whichever party wins in 2024 the policies will support those that are already supported more than those currently losing out
While it's true that Republicans often believe that Democrats featherbed their supporters, that wasn't at any point a rallying cry or slogan or talking point of the Jan 6 rioters. Their complaint was their erroneous belief that Trump won the 2020 election but for fraud/a global paedophile conspiracy.
I accept your general point about polarisation in today's politics with different groups wanting public largesse directed towards them, but I'm not seeing the evidence for your specific thesis. January 6th wasn't democracy eroded by people voting for public largesse. January 6th was democracy eroded by fascistic lies. Ergo, I don't the solution being a radical new approach to determining public funding priorities: I see the solution being to resist fascistic lies.
Trump was elected in the first place to be in that position because people thought largesse was being misdirected. When he lost people supported him claiming he didnt because they saw a return to largesse for others and had enough and were willing to throw away democracy
Trump’s too winning slogans were “build the wall” and “lock her up”, neither of which quite fits your model.
Again, while, yes, many of his supporters did feel largesse was misdirected, that’s one aspect of a complex political phenomenon. And, again, the January 6th rioters weren’t a representative cross-section of people who voted for Trump.
Are you arguing here that democracy isn't in trouble in America and it started with trump. Build the wall was also about largesse, people feeling that immigrants were keeping their wages lower
I’m arguing that democracy is in trouble in the US because Trump lies and doesn’t respect the rule of law, after years of the Republican Party lying and not respecting the rule of law.
The democrats were a bunch of lying c**** as well and hilary deserved everything she got
On topic. No. Michael Gove is very wrong actually. This is how I would explain it. As Miriam Cates says, seeking to strengthen families, communities and the nation, through providing homes and jobs, is the correct policy position - who would disagree with that? So why drop any talk about strengthening families community and our nation and talk nothing but NHS and the economy? The National Conservative conference and the values of family, community and nation at its heart, was not all bad, these types of attacks, such as it was a waste of time promoting family and communities, you should only talk about the NHS and economy as no one is listening, are very petty and shallow minded. If no one is listening to what you feel is important, this is precisely the reason to talk about it and get their attention.
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
You're right but my strong prediction is we are now entering a prolonged period of decline for property values relative to earnings.
Gove is also right that politeness and courtesy are devastating weapons in debate, far more effective than bombast and vituperation.
Jacob Rees-Mogg's political career explained. He is unfailingly polite.
Yes but his is a bullying, deeply mannered 'politeness' that he wields like a sword in the class war on behalf of privilege and the forces of reaction. It's quite unpleasant to witness.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is as "polite" as the snootiest head waiter imaginable. Or unimaginable.
Mogg is one of those people who misunderstand “manners” and act with a set of words and actions that they believe are “courtly” manners. Ultimately it’s not manners but a form of etiquette where they’re a things you say and do, and the way you say and do them that makes you think you are being “mannered”.
Unfortunately idiots lap it up and don’t get that manners and politeness are not some set code of speech and rules but about how you treat other people.
“Manners makyth man” was not about opening a door for a lady or talking politely but was a call to treat your fellow man with respect and decency if you climbed to positions of power.
Gove is also right that politeness and courtesy are devastating weapons in debate, far more effective than bombast and vituperation.
Jacob Rees-Mogg's political career explained. He is unfailingly polite.
Yes but his is a bullying, deeply mannered 'politeness' that he wields like a sword in the class war on behalf of privilege and the forces of reaction. It's quite unpleasant to witness.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is as "polite" as the snootiest head waiter imaginable. Or unimaginable.
Mogg is one of those people who misunderstand “manners” and act with a set of words and actions that they believe are “courtly” manners. Ultimately it’s not manners but a form of etiquette where they’re a things you say and do, and the way you say and do them that makes you think you are being “mannered”.
Unfortunately idiots lap it up and don’t get that manners and politeness are not some set code of speech and rules but about how you treat other people.
“Manners makyth man” was not about opening a door for a lady or talking politely but was a call to treat your fellow man with respect and decency if you climbed to positions of power.
Yes, good manners are all about showing consideration to others, and putting them at their ease.
JRM uses a superificial politeness to put people down.
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
Suella Braverman tried to get out of the final Commons vote on the government’s small boats bill despite Conservative MPs being instructed to attend, the Guardian has learned.
The home secretary’s aides sent multiple emails over the course of several days to the Tory whips’ office requesting that she be slipped for the third reading of her department’s flagship legislation. Being slipped, or pairing, is a longstanding convention in the Commons where the whips of the government and an opposition party agree to allow MPs from one side to miss a vote because of personal reasons or official business.
Sources said that the chief whip, Simon Hart, eventually had to call Braverman directly to instruct her to attend the vote on the illegal migration bill, which had a three-line whip. They claimed that Braverman had wanted to visit a police station instead.
One Tory insider said: “The chief is at his wit’s end with Suella. She just thinks she can do what she wants. Her office was really hassling the whips’ admin team to allow her to miss the third reading vote for what appeared to be a picture opportunity.”
The Tories want us to believe that the last 13 years are not a failure - they seem to now acknowledge they have failed - but instead it was the Labour Party, the Civil Service, leftie lawyers and young people under the age of 95 living in South East England.
This is not the policy of a party that has much more to offer the electorate.
The original sin of the 2010-2024 Tory government was coming into office without a plan to sort out the housing market after the Blair/Brown bubble. Instead they just continued essentially the same policies.
I’d argue that rising house prices was actually one of their core policies.
Keeping house prices at current levels so people didn’t feel poorer was a core policy.
The fact it resulted in prices rising because they missed a rising population is a different matter.
Rising house prices were a big factor in Labour's wins in 2001 and 2005. The beneficiaries then looked to the Conservatives to maintain them.
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
When Britain entered the ERM (as mentioned above) interest rates were at 15 per cent.
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
Not sure how reliable but Uswitch have consumer btl at £955bn in 2023 from £320bn in 2007, with rises every year in between. A strange set of numbers given it has apparently been effectively killed off.
Suella Braverman tried to get out of the final Commons vote on the government’s small boats bill despite Conservative MPs being instructed to attend, the Guardian has learned.
The home secretary’s aides sent multiple emails over the course of several days to the Tory whips’ office requesting that she be slipped for the third reading of her department’s flagship legislation. Being slipped, or pairing, is a longstanding convention in the Commons where the whips of the government and an opposition party agree to allow MPs from one side to miss a vote because of personal reasons or official business.
Sources said that the chief whip, Simon Hart, eventually had to call Braverman directly to instruct her to attend the vote on the illegal migration bill, which had a three-line whip. They claimed that Braverman had wanted to visit a police station instead.
One Tory insider said: “The chief is at his wit’s end with Suella. She just thinks she can do what she wants. Her office was really hassling the whips’ admin team to allow her to miss the third reading vote for what appeared to be a picture opportunity.”
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
When Britain entered the ERM (as mentioned above) interest rates were at 15 per cent.
No they weren't they went up to 15% when they tried to maintain us in the erm
"After a $22 billion intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of England and a promise to hike interest rates from 10% to 15%, the UK government withdrew sterling from the ERM on 16 September 1992, a day that is remembered as Black Wednesday."
On topic. No. Michael Gove is very wrong actually. This is how I would explain it. As Miriam Cates says, seeking to strengthen families, communities and the nation, through providing homes and jobs, is the correct policy position - who would disagree with that? So why drop any talk about strengthening families community and our nation and talk nothing but NHS and the economy? The National Conservative conference and the values of family, community and nation at its heart, was not all bad, these types of attacks, such as it was a waste of time promoting family and communities, you should only talk about the NHS and economy as no one is listening, are very petty and shallow minded. If no one is listening to what you feel is important, this is precisely the reason to talk about it and get their attention.
So you're a National Conservative now?
A group believed in and campaigned for the poll tax to replace rates, if they didn’t bother, if they gave up campaigning for it and just banged on about NHS instead, no one would have listened and adopted the policy. If you believe in something you should campaign for it, you should form a pressure group and lobby for it. Everyone at Nat Con were doing exactly the right thing in that regard, surely you must agree?
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
You're right but my strong prediction is we are now entering a prolonged period of decline for property values relative to earnings.
In 2007 I remortgaged my flat in the UK's second city for £285k. Thirteen years later the mortgage term expired and I put it on the market for £275k (as advised it would sell at by three different Estate Agents). That was three years ago, it still hasn't sold and the offer price is down to £230k. The local problem was covid taking away the office jobs from this area coupled with many newer properties coming on the market. When it is finally sold I will face a £35k debt to the mortgage company. My pile of bricks has been a personal financial disaster but I appreciate you said "are an almost guaranteed safe investment".
I mean, if you want to design a system of government that explicitly and deliberately does away with any possibility of joined up thinking and produces an incoherent mess by design then by jove @Pagan2 has nailed it.
Oh like we have that now don't be naive there is no joined up thinking in our politics currently just tribal ranting wankers like you
You're not confusing him with me, are you?
No you aren't actually a ranter, you do have a blind spot for believing that if you change a system people won't just adapt to keep what you perceive as advantage. An example is abolishing private schools where you don't believe that those people wont either send their kids to schools abroad if very rich or buy up properties in good school cachement area's to push poorer people out of the good school cachement areas if medium rich, or choose to employ private tutors if only slightly rich.
"Not a ranter" - I'll take that and count myself fortunate.
But pls note re your specific complaint, the 'blind spot' is to my mind more a refusal to let the impossibility of perfection prevent the pursuit of significant improvement.
It wasnt about the impossibility of perfection. It was about the fact it may well make things worse for poor people. Currently poor people can live in the cachement area for good schools. Abolish private schools and a lot of those houses they live in will get purchased to get the offspring of the better off into those good state schools. Less poor people will likely make those state schools even better....not because the children of poor people are thicker but because rich parents will donate to the schools and push their kids
You overstate the extent to which this would happen imo. Plus my plan has other features, eg resource directed disproportionately to schools in impoverished areas. If you want a big picture mission statement it's this - no more good and bad schools, just schools. No more going to this school or that school, you just go 'to school'.
Massive benefit to all except the genuine toffs who leverage places like Eton and Harrow to cement their position and influence. Please get behind this instead of nitpicking. It's potentially transformational. One of very few things that are outside of a complete rethink of our attitude to residential property.
I mean, if you want to design a system of government that explicitly and deliberately does away with any possibility of joined up thinking and produces an incoherent mess by design then by jove @Pagan2 has nailed it.
Oh like we have that now don't be naive there is no joined up thinking in our politics currently just tribal ranting wankers like you
You're not confusing him with me, are you?
No you aren't actually a ranter, you do have a blind spot for believing that if you change a system people won't just adapt to keep what you perceive as advantage. An example is abolishing private schools where you don't believe that those people wont either send their kids to schools abroad if very rich or buy up properties in good school cachement area's to push poorer people out of the good school cachement areas if medium rich, or choose to employ private tutors if only slightly rich.
"Not a ranter" - I'll take that and count myself fortunate.
But pls note re your specific complaint, the 'blind spot' is to my mind more a refusal to let the impossibility of perfection prevent the pursuit of significant improvement.
It wasnt about the impossibility of perfection. It was about the fact it may well make things worse for poor people. Currently poor people can live in the cachement area for good schools. Abolish private schools and a lot of those houses they live in will get purchased to get the offspring of the better off into those good state schools. Less poor people will likely make those state schools even better....not because the children of poor people are thicker but because rich parents will donate to the schools and push their kids
You overstate the extent to which this would happen imo. Plus my plan has other features, eg resource directed disproportionately to schools in impoverished areas. If you want a big picture mission statement it's this - no more good and bad schools, just schools. No more going to this school or that school, you just go 'to school'. Massive benefit to all except the genuine toffs who leverage places like Eton and Harrow to cement their position and influence. Please get behind this instead of nitpicking. It's potentially transformational. One of very few things that are outside of a complete rethink of our attitude to residential property.
The point is you think I overstate it while I think you understate it. The plan for schools being no more bad schools or good schools really is pie in the sky in particular there will always be better schools and worse schools, yes you might decrease the range between them but I doubt it.
I won't get behind it because I genuinely think your solution will make things worse for the kids of the poor because I genuinely believe your assessment of me overstating it is totally wrong.
On topic. No. Michael Gove is very wrong actually. This is how I would explain it. As Miriam Cates says, seeking to strengthen families, communities and the nation, through providing homes and jobs, is the correct policy position - who would disagree with that? So why drop any talk about strengthening families community and our nation and talk nothing but NHS and the economy? The National Conservative conference and the values of family, community and nation at its heart, was not all bad, these types of attacks, such as it was a waste of time promoting family and communities, you should only talk about the NHS and economy as no one is listening, are very petty and shallow minded. If no one is listening to what you feel is important, this is precisely the reason to talk about it and get their attention.
So you're a National Conservative now?
A group believed in and campaigned for the poll tax to replace rates, if they didn’t bother, if they gave up campaigning for it and just banged on about NHS instead, no one would have listened and adopted the policy. If you believe in something you should campaign for it, you should form a pressure group and lobby for it. Everyone at Nat Con were doing exactly the right thing in that regard, surely you must agree?
I just find it odd that you can be a Labour voter one day, a Lib Dem the next and then become this.
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
You're right but my strong prediction is we are now entering a prolonged period of decline for property values relative to earnings.
In 2007 I remortgaged my flat in the UK's second city for £285k. Thirteen years later the mortgage term expired and I put it on the market for £275k (as advised it would sell at by three different Estate Agents). That was three years ago, it still hasn't sold and the offer price is down to £230k. The local problem was covid taking away the office jobs from this area coupled with many newer properties coming on the market. When it is finally sold I will face a £35k debt to the mortgage company. My pile of bricks has been a personal financial disaster but I appreciate you said "are an almost guaranteed safe investment".
I'm really sorry to hear that. Do you have to sell?
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
Not sure how reliable but Uswitch have consumer btl at £955bn in 2023 from £320bn in 2007, with rises every year in between. A strange set of numbers given it has apparently been effectively killed off.
That's curious. Because, since 2015, sales by landlords have exceeded purchases in every year. Tax changes and greater regulation have reduced the appetite on the part of landlords to retain properties.
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
You're right but my strong prediction is we are now entering a prolonged period of decline for property values relative to earnings.
In 2007 I remortgaged my flat in the UK's second city for £285k. Thirteen years later the mortgage term expired and I put it on the market for £275k (as advised it would sell at by three different Estate Agents). That was three years ago, it still hasn't sold and the offer price is down to £230k. The local problem was covid taking away the office jobs from this area coupled with many newer properties coming on the market. When it is finally sold I will face a £35k debt to the mortgage company. My pile of bricks has been a personal financial disaster but I appreciate you said "are an almost guaranteed safe investment".
Sorry to hear about this, it must be very stressful. Is Britain’s second city Birmingham, Manchester, or Glasgow?
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
When Britain entered the ERM (as mentioned above) interest rates were at 15 per cent.
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
To me, this is a greater “loss of control” than even the volumes we saw under FOM (against which, successive governments made no effective mitigation).
This government has one major achievement, namely the £2 bus fare cap, now extended to October. It's made a significant difference to a lot of people who are hard up.
However, it seems as if they're almost embarrassed about it; they hardly trumpet it.
37.5-41.5% ND 23.5-27.5% Syriza 11.5-12.5% PASOK 6.5-7.5% KKE 4.3-5.3% EL 2.5-3.5% MeRA25 2.5-3.5% PE 2.5-3.5% NIKH
So about a 14-point lead for ND, Syriza are getting absolutely destroyed and are only ahead so far in one district in the whole country (Rodopis) on the early returns.
For the first time, Greeks abroad could vote and it looks as though the UK will provide one of the largest vote totals for this.
Greece is heading for a hung parliament, and a repeat election in early July is expected.
Note that today's election is pure PR with a 3% threshold whereas the next election will have a sliding scale of bonus seats for the winning party.
The Greek electoral system changes frequently, my understanding is that you need a 2/3rds majority to change it for the next election, while a simple majority will change it for the next election but one, so today's system dates from the 2015-19 Syriza government.
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
To me, this is a greater “loss of control” than even the volumes we saw under FOM (against which, successive governments made no effective mitigation).
I can't think of a better way to kill off Brexit than pursuing this policy.
37.5-41.5% ND 23.5-27.5% Syriza 11.5-12.5% PASOK 6.5-7.5% KKE 4.3-5.3% EL 2.5-3.5% MeRA25 2.5-3.5% PE 2.5-3.5% NIKH
So about a 14-point lead for ND, Syriza are getting absolutely destroyed and are only ahead so far in one district in the whole country (Rodopis) on the early returns.
For the first time, Greeks abroad could vote and it looks as though the UK will provide one of the largest vote totals for this.
Greece is heading for a hung parliament, and a repeat election in early July is expected.
Note that today's election is pure PR with a 3% threshold whereas the next election will have a sliding scale of bonus seats for the winning party.
The Greek electoral system changes frequently, my understanding is that you need a 2/3rds majority to change it for the next election, while a simple majority will change it for the next election but one, so today's system dates from the 2015-19 Syriza government.
My favourite aspect of the Greek website is that the shading is random (at least at this stage) and changes if you refresh.
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
Uber Prime London prices are about where they were 10 years ago. Normal Nice London has almost doubled in that period. It's all very chequered.
On topic. No. Michael Gove is very wrong actually. This is how I would explain it. As Miriam Cates says, seeking to strengthen families, communities and the nation, through providing homes and jobs, is the correct policy position - who would disagree with that? So why drop any talk about strengthening families community and our nation and talk nothing but NHS and the economy? The National Conservative conference and the values of family, community and nation at its heart, was not all bad, these types of attacks, such as it was a waste of time promoting family and communities, you should only talk about the NHS and economy as no one is listening, are very petty and shallow minded. If no one is listening to what you feel is important, this is precisely the reason to talk about it and get their attention.
So you're a National Conservative now?
A group believed in and campaigned for the poll tax to replace rates, if they didn’t bother, if they gave up campaigning for it and just banged on about NHS instead, no one would have listened and adopted the policy. If you believe in something you should campaign for it, you should form a pressure group and lobby for it. Everyone at Nat Con were doing exactly the right thing in that regard, surely you must agree?
Rates were very unpopular, and Scottish Conservatives were desperate to introduce the poll tax to replace them as soon as possible.
Rates were similar to council tax except based on the rental value of the home, which could change all the time and was essentially unbounded, and rebandings were often cancelled or delayed for the same reason we haven't had one on property values since 1993.
37.5-41.5% ND 23.5-27.5% Syriza 11.5-12.5% PASOK 6.5-7.5% KKE 4.3-5.3% EL 2.5-3.5% MeRA25 2.5-3.5% PE 2.5-3.5% NIKH
So about a 14-point lead for ND, Syriza are getting absolutely destroyed and are only ahead so far in one district in the whole country (Rodopis) on the early returns.
For the first time, Greeks abroad could vote and it looks as though the UK will provide one of the largest vote totals for this.
Greece is heading for a hung parliament, and a repeat election in early July is expected.
Note that today's election is pure PR with a 3% threshold whereas the next election will have a sliding scale of bonus seats for the winning party.
The Greek electoral system changes frequently, my understanding is that you need a 2/3rds majority to change it for the next election, while a simple majority will change it for the next election but one, so today's system dates from the 2015-19 Syriza government.
On topic. No. Michael Gove is very wrong actually. This is how I would explain it. As Miriam Cates says, seeking to strengthen families, communities and the nation, through providing homes and jobs, is the correct policy position - who would disagree with that? So why drop any talk about strengthening families community and our nation and talk nothing but NHS and the economy? The National Conservative conference and the values of family, community and nation at its heart, was not all bad, these types of attacks, such as it was a waste of time promoting family and communities, you should only talk about the NHS and economy as no one is listening, are very petty and shallow minded. If no one is listening to what you feel is important, this is precisely the reason to talk about it and get their attention.
So you're a National Conservative now?
A group believed in and campaigned for the poll tax to replace rates, if they didn’t bother, if they gave up campaigning for it and just banged on about NHS instead, no one would have listened and adopted the policy. If you believe in something you should campaign for it, you should form a pressure group and lobby for it. Everyone at Nat Con were doing exactly the right thing in that regard, surely you must agree?
Rates were very unpopular, and Scottish Conservatives were desperate to introduce the poll tax to replace them as soon as possible.
Rates were similar to council tax except based on the rental value of the home, which could change all the time and was essentially unbounded, and rebandings were often cancelled or delayed for the same reason we haven't had one on property values since 1993.
Two problems with the Poll Tax. It was billed to a person not a property, so those charged could just vanish into thin air. Non-Tory councils could hike it massively and the Tory government would get the blame.
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
Uber Prime London prices are about where they were 10 years ago. Normal Nice London has almost doubled in that period. It's all very chequered.
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
You mean GDP is rubbish.
But for many millions - oldies, GenXers who have paid off their mortgages, teenagers who want a job things are very nice.
For other groups things aren't so good with the apogee of crap likely being a young, southern graduate.
Those “other groups” are sadly the ones who need to deliver economic growth. Ie, the non-retired.
I heard on the Merryn Somerset Webb podcast this morning (but can’t validate separately) that the UK is now experiencing a brain drain again, like it did in the 70s.
Well, it wouldn't be a surprise, would it? British society despises its youth and has done for a long time.
I really will not encourage my kids to hang around here if they have better options abroad. This is no country for young people right now.
37.5-41.5% ND 23.5-27.5% Syriza 11.5-12.5% PASOK 6.5-7.5% KKE 4.3-5.3% EL 2.5-3.5% MeRA25 2.5-3.5% PE 2.5-3.5% NIKH
So about a 14-point lead for ND, Syriza are getting absolutely destroyed and are only ahead so far in one district in the whole country (Rodopis) on the early returns.
For the first time, Greeks abroad could vote and it looks as though the UK will provide one of the largest vote totals for this.
Greece is heading for a hung parliament, and a repeat election in early July is expected.
Note that today's election is pure PR with a 3% threshold whereas the next election will have a sliding scale of bonus seats for the winning party.
The Greek electoral system changes frequently, my understanding is that you need a 2/3rds majority to change it for the next election, while a simple majority will change it for the next election but one, so today's system dates from the 2015-19 Syriza government.
My favourite aspect of the Greek website is that the shading is random (at least at this stage) and changes if you refresh.
Now in colour! All blue apart from Rodopis, the grey peninsula is the monastic enclave of Mount Athos.
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
To me, this is a greater “loss of control” than even the volumes we saw under FOM (against which, successive governments made no effective mitigation).
I can't think of a better way to kill off Brexit than pursuing this policy.
Brexit is already dead, as a governing philosophy. The wave function collapsed over Christmas 2021, after Frost’s resignation.
Fewer people think Brexit has gone well than believe the moon landings were faked.
The incoming government has no interest in maintaining Brexit, only in mitigating it. Brexit is now short-hand for arrant stupidity, bordering on suicide. They should probably rename the Darwin Awards the Brexit Awards.
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
To me, this is a greater “loss of control” than even the volumes we saw under FOM (against which, successive governments made no effective mitigation).
I can't think of a better way to kill off Brexit than pursuing this policy.
I think this country’s centre right politicians are the most useless set of centre-right politicians anywhere in the democratic world. They are incapable of achieving anything they claim to want.
Like @Richard Tyndall, I sometimes wish the Conservative Party would just disappear. But, I doubt if a replacement would be any better.
Yes the economy is key and getting the deficit and inflation down but that doesn't mean you can ignore the culture wars the woke left are raging, which the right needs to fight back on. As Meloni proved last year and Trump proved in 2016 fighting the culture wars on a conservative platform can even lead to victory
The other interesting stat I heard is that in the 90s, British equities were 85% in British ownership.
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
That's just one more baleful consequence of the rotten property market. Piles of bricks are an almost guaranteed safe investment, offering stratospheric growth - thus, people are disincentivised from investing in anything else. This, in turn, makes homes to live in so stupidly expensive that younger generations have no choice but to bet the farm on property - if they can afford it - because the alternative is to be an impoverished rent serf for a succession of rapacious landlords until you die.
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Strange as it may seem, the rate of growth in house prices has significantly moderated since 2007. The government has effectively killed off the buy to let market, which contributed to that.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
When Britain entered the ERM (as mentioned above) interest rates were at 15 per cent.
No they weren't they went up to 15% when they tried to maintain us in the erm
"After a $22 billion intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of England and a promise to hike interest rates from 10% to 15%, the UK government withdrew sterling from the ERM on 16 September 1992, a day that is remembered as Black Wednesday."
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
To me, this is a greater “loss of control” than even the volumes we saw under FOM (against which, successive governments made no effective mitigation).
I can't think of a better way to kill off Brexit than pursuing this policy.
Brexit is already dead, as a governing philosophy. The wave function collapsed over Christmas 2021, after Frost’s resignation.
Fewer people think Brexit has gone well than believe the moon landings were faked.
The incoming government has no interest in maintaining Brexit, only in mitigating it. Brexit is now short-hand for arrant stupidity, bordering on suicide. They should probably rename the Darwin Awards the Brexit Awards.
Two problems.
The short term one is the "Brexit as an unwanted gift" issue- we may want to send it to the local recycling centre, but that would create a scene. And we're British, dammit. We hate creating scenes.
The longer term one is that none of the realistic alternatives to this version of Brexit are actually popular. They'd mostly be better than this, but none of them are popular. Until that changes, inertia wins.
37.5-41.5% ND 23.5-27.5% Syriza 11.5-12.5% PASOK 6.5-7.5% KKE 4.3-5.3% EL 2.5-3.5% MeRA25 2.5-3.5% PE 2.5-3.5% NIKH
So about a 14-point lead for ND, Syriza are getting absolutely destroyed and are only ahead so far in one district in the whole country (Rodopis) on the early returns.
For the first time, Greeks abroad could vote and it looks as though the UK will provide one of the largest vote totals for this.
Greece is heading for a hung parliament, and a repeat election in early July is expected.
Note that today's election is pure PR with a 3% threshold whereas the next election will have a sliding scale of bonus seats for the winning party.
The Greek electoral system changes frequently, my understanding is that you need a 2/3rds majority to change it for the next election, while a simple majority will change it for the next election but one, so today's system dates from the 2015-19 Syriza government.
Looks like ND are heading for a second term in Greece and a re election for the centre right government, a just reward for its reducing the deficit and strong economic growth in Greece after the mess Syriza left.
Greece showing a rare rightwing victory despite most of the west swing to the social democratic left post pandemic
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
To me, this is a greater “loss of control” than even the volumes we saw under FOM (against which, successive governments made no effective mitigation).
I can't think of a better way to kill off Brexit than pursuing this policy.
Brexit is already dead, as a governing philosophy. The wave function collapsed over Christmas 2021, after Frost’s resignation.
Fewer people think Brexit has gone well than believe the moon landings were faked.
The incoming government has no interest in maintaining Brexit, only in mitigating it. Brexit is now short-hand for arrant stupidity, bordering on suicide. They should probably rename the Darwin Awards the Brexit Awards.
Brexit for most people was leaving the EU. We did. I don’t get this obsession some have for it being ‘a state of mind’ or a ‘governing philosophy’. Brexit happened. Two other things have also happened that have wrecked the economies around the world. Too much of the state of the nation is laid at Brexits door, mainly by those who hated Brexit.
Suella Braverman tried to get out of the final Commons vote on the government’s small boats bill despite Conservative MPs being instructed to attend, the Guardian has learned.
The home secretary’s aides sent multiple emails over the course of several days to the Tory whips’ office requesting that she be slipped for the third reading of her department’s flagship legislation. Being slipped, or pairing, is a longstanding convention in the Commons where the whips of the government and an opposition party agree to allow MPs from one side to miss a vote because of personal reasons or official business.
Sources said that the chief whip, Simon Hart, eventually had to call Braverman directly to instruct her to attend the vote on the illegal migration bill, which had a three-line whip. They claimed that Braverman had wanted to visit a police station instead.
One Tory insider said: “The chief is at his wit’s end with Suella. She just thinks she can do what she wants. Her office was really hassling the whips’ admin team to allow her to miss the third reading vote for what appeared to be a picture opportunity.”
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
To me, this is a greater “loss of control” than even the volumes we saw under FOM (against which, successive governments made no effective mitigation).
I can't think of a better way to kill off Brexit than pursuing this policy.
We need imported Labour. After we Brexited and sent back all those interlopers from Eastern Europe that we didn't want here the Great Brexit Master General Alexander Boris Johnson promised you that we could cover any shortfall with "our friends from the Indian Sub-Continent". Boris Johnson told you this was how it worked. For once in his life he told the truth
TSE's thread is 100% on the money, as is Gove. The problem is, and the reason for the focus on culture issues, is that the Tories don't have a good story to tell on the economy. The economy is rubbish and they're not doing anything worthwhile about it. So what else do they have?
This is the correct answer.
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
They're not trying desperately to fix the economy. If they were trying, and somehow failing, I'd have some sympathy. They're not - they're waiting for the latest inflation figures and hoping for the best. The few economic interventions they have made have been deeply unhelpful, the rest is just spectating and hoping Sunak's 5 rubbish aims come true.
A third thing I learned on Twitter this morning (via Nick Timothy) is that 22% of study visas went to dependants, compared to 6% in 2019.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I cannot fathom it. I suspect it's to get more medical staff into the NHS quick-ish but it's one hell of a brave way to do it.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
To me, this is a greater “loss of control” than even the volumes we saw under FOM (against which, successive governments made no effective mitigation).
I can't think of a better way to kill off Brexit than pursuing this policy.
Brexit is already dead, as a governing philosophy. The wave function collapsed over Christmas 2021, after Frost’s resignation.
Fewer people think Brexit has gone well than believe the moon landings were faked.
The incoming government has no interest in maintaining Brexit, only in mitigating it. Brexit is now short-hand for arrant stupidity, bordering on suicide. They should probably rename the Darwin Awards the Brexit Awards.
Brexit for most people was leaving the EU. We did. I don’t get this obsession some have for it being ‘a state of mind’ or a ‘governing philosophy’. Brexit happened. Two other things have also happened that have wrecked the economies around the world. Too much of the state of the nation is laid at Brexits door, mainly by those who hated Brexit.
This post is the dying dregs of Brexitism. “It hasn’t been as bad as a global pandemic or war in Europe”.
Comments
It’s a holding strategy while they desperately try to fix the economy.
Also, the half-life of careers of Tory politicians has been reducing - and the quickest route for aspiring Tory politicians is to pander to this shit. The demand creates the supply.
The Tories always have had a bastard problem. I don’t think Gove is completely clean on this, either.
'Britain is booming!'
'Why?'
'Because we left the ERM!'
'Really? Then why did you take us in and spend literally billions trying to keep us in?'
'Because we screwed up!'
'So basically, we're doing well because you're completely incompetent and don't know what you're doing?'
'That's right!'
'Then why should we trust you?'
'Er...because we set up a cones hotline!'
*Voter leaves, shaking head and resolving to vote Labour.*
I also found it ironic someone calling it out as 200 years old when the democratic system its criticizing comes from athens of the 600bc era
But, because they were not in power, that gets forgotten.
Just as Cameron and Osborne's unfortunate record on proposed tax and financial regulation was not a barrier to their taking office in 2010. It's the government get the blame no matter what the opposition do.
Polls close in 2 mins
https://www.ertflix.gr/en/epg/now-on-tv
https://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/home/en/
Ευχαριστώ,
DC
I heard on the Merryn Somerset Webb podcast this morning (but can’t validate separately) that the UK is now experiencing a brain drain again, like it did in the 70s.
I used it very carefully, and it’s a specific reference to Major’s depiction of those people in his party mining the same vein in the ‘90s. He didn’t direct it at children.
You’re better than that comment, @ydoethur
So only a fairly short while until
Erdogan is free to try and get rid of elections after this near squeakthe big day, presumably.Incidentally, you will note I didn't refer to children. It was designed to be ambiguous between his colourful marital history and his talent for causing trouble among backbenchers.
Didn't think the erm was a good thing? Who could you vote for? Cons in favour, labour in favour , no idea of lib dem policy but find it hard to imagine them not in favour
All major parties in favour of something that proved to be a huge mistake.
The same was true of the eu....all major parties in favour, yes you could vote ukip however a general election is about everything not a single issue and too many found everything but the eu stance of ukip repugnant
But pls note re your specific complaint, the 'blind spot' is to my mind more a refusal to let the impossibility of perfection prevent the pursuit of significant improvement.
There are lots of decisions that the government takes that don't look like tax'n'spend but feed into the calculations as well. Making it easier to build stuff is one, the tradeoff of autonomy vs. convenience with international trade is another. Fix those, grow the economy a bit, and the budget numbers have at least got a chance of coming closer to adding up. Trying to balance the budget without considering them is a fool's errand.
But then we come back to the electoral coalition that the modern Conservative Party are superglued to.
I'll be there with pineapple pizza for you to eat and a Welsh rugby shirt for you to wear in about an hour.
In consideration of the fact the header isn't without merit I will permit you to not wear the Max Verstappen face mask.
The Tories want us to believe that the last 13 years are not a failure - they seem to now acknowledge they have failed - but instead it was the Labour Party, the Civil Service, leftie lawyers and young people under the age of 95 living in South East England.
This is not the policy of a party that has much more to offer the electorate.
Firstly, we got told on here repeatedly in the early 2010s on the basis of such polling that few cared about the EU, but the moment voters were offered a real choice, it dominated political life in this country for the next half decade.
Secondly, if you look at Gallup's similar polling here in America, economic issues dominate cultural matters, too, but that's not reflected at all in the public debate, no doubt because it's much easier to articulate a comprehensible, binary position on, say, transgender bathrooms than on interest rates. (e.g. 29% say the economy is the most important issue, vs 8% immigration and 1% LGBT issues).
Thirdly, the Conservative led administrations of the last 13 years have actually been pretty difficult to distinguish from the last Labour government on many cultural issues in their actions, whatever their rhetoric has been. They have tolerated waves of immigration, repeatedly failing to reduce it as they promised, kept things like hate crime and hate speech laws in place, not done anything much when civil servants put pronouns on their emails, etc.
Whether a serious attempt to offer the voters a choice on cultural issues/incite a culture war in this country by the government would succeed, I'm not sure. But I don't think the polling is proof that it wouldn't.
I accept your general point about polarisation in today's politics with different groups wanting public largesse directed towards them, but I'm not seeing the evidence for your specific thesis. January 6th wasn't democracy eroded by people voting for public largesse. January 6th was democracy eroded by fascistic lies. Ergo, I don't the solution being a radical new approach to determining public funding priorities: I see the solution being to resist fascistic lies.
London and the main cities were notably vibrant for a long while, hence the attraction to European (and other youth).
What life-changing policy have the Tories implemented except gay marriage which most of them voted against?
The fact it resulted in prices rising because they missed a rising population is a different matter.
His upper-crust, upper-class pomp & circumstance being VERY thin veneer for THIS Eton Mess.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/21/harriet-baldwin-tax-system-perverse-work-doesnt-pay/
That’s now just a third.
Britain is becoming a branch economy, just as British regions are themselves feeble economic puppets of London.
Again, while, yes, many of his supporters did feel largesse was misdirected, that’s one aspect of a complex political phenomenon. And, again, the January 6th rioters weren’t a representative cross-section of people who voted for Trump.
You can see what the government is *trying* to do about economic growth.
I'm pondering whether to buy a new desk chair. My current one isn't very good and is getting rather tatty. If I buy one, I'd like it to be a decent one rather than the bargain basement ones I've bought from Staples in the past (well, obviously I won't be buying from them now anyway)!
Anyone got any recommendations for something really good? I'm willing to splash out a bit within reason because after the year I've had I feel I've earned the right to pamper myself a bit.
(THanks to @Pagan2 for his reply on the previous thread where this somehow ended up!)
If you're a mortgage-free homeowner in this country you have reached the Promised Land.
Unfortunately idiots lap it up and don’t get that manners and politeness are not some set code of speech and rules but about how you treat other people.
“Manners makyth man” was not about opening a door for a lady or talking politely but was a call to treat your fellow man with respect and decency if you climbed to positions of power.
US giant swoops for British chipmaker months after Chinese sale blocked on national security grounds
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/21/cadence-semiconductor-giant-takeover-pulsic-microchips/ (£££)
JRM uses a superificial politeness to put people down.
However, far too many people who say Stop The Culture War are actually arguing for the other side to cease resistance.
I can't help thinking that interest rates ought to have been raised from near zero a long time ago.
Suella Braverman tried to get out of the final Commons vote on the government’s small boats bill despite Conservative MPs being instructed to attend, the Guardian has learned.
The home secretary’s aides sent multiple emails over the course of several days to the Tory whips’ office requesting that she be slipped for the third reading of her department’s flagship legislation. Being slipped, or pairing, is a longstanding convention in the Commons where the whips of the government and an opposition party agree to allow MPs from one side to miss a vote because of personal reasons or official business.
Sources said that the chief whip, Simon Hart, eventually had to call Braverman directly to instruct her to attend the vote on the illegal migration bill, which had a three-line whip. They claimed that Braverman had wanted to visit a police station instead.
One Tory insider said: “The chief is at his wit’s end with Suella. She just thinks she can do what she wants. Her office was really hassling the whips’ admin team to allow her to miss the third reading vote for what appeared to be a picture opportunity.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/21/suella-braverman-tried-to-get-out-of-final-vote-on-small-boats-bill
Rising house prices were a big factor in Labour's wins in 2001 and 2005. The beneficiaries then looked to the Conservatives to maintain them.
https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/buy-to-let-statistics/#:~:text=Quick overview of buy-to,mortgage lending for the year.
Why?
Why now?
What do the briefers want to happen?
"After a $22 billion intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of England and a promise to hike interest rates from 10% to 15%, the UK government withdrew sterling from the ERM on 16 September 1992, a day that is remembered as Black Wednesday."
source https://www.economicsobservatory.com/the-birth-of-inflation-targeting-why-did-the-erm-crisis-happen
when we went into the erm 15% was not the interest rate
Massive benefit to all except the genuine toffs who leverage places like Eton and Harrow to cement their position and influence. Please get behind this instead of nitpicking. It's potentially transformational. One of very few things that are outside of a complete rethink of our attitude to residential property.
I won't get behind it because I genuinely think your solution will make things worse for the kids of the poor because I genuinely believe your assessment of me overstating it is totally wrong.
44% of the dependent visas are going to Indian nationals and 30% to Nigerian nationals. And it's expected to have gone from c.16k to 150k in the last year. That's on top of Indians being the biggest in boat crossings last month.
It's clear to me that student visas, as well as boat crossings, are simply a way to circumvent work permits to economically migrate - and the combined population of India and Nigeria is nearly 1.7 billion, so there will be no end to it.
Is Britain’s second city Birmingham, Manchester, or Glasgow?
However, it seems as if they're almost embarrassed about it; they hardly trumpet it.
Updated exit poll:
37.5-41.5% ND
23.5-27.5% Syriza
11.5-12.5% PASOK
6.5-7.5% KKE
4.3-5.3% EL
2.5-3.5% MeRA25
2.5-3.5% PE
2.5-3.5% NIKH
So about a 14-point lead for ND, Syriza are getting absolutely destroyed and are only ahead so far in one district in the whole country (Rodopis) on the early returns.
For the first time, Greeks abroad could vote and it looks as though the UK will provide one of the largest vote totals for this.
Greece is heading for a hung parliament, and a repeat election in early July is expected.
Note that today's election is pure PR with a 3% threshold whereas the next election will have a sliding scale of bonus seats for the winning party.
The Greek electoral system changes frequently, my understanding is that you need a 2/3rds majority to change it for the next election, while a simple majority will change it for the next election but one, so today's system dates from the 2015-19 Syriza government.
Rates were similar to council tax except based on the rental value of the home, which could change all the time and was essentially unbounded, and rebandings were often cancelled or delayed for the same reason we haven't had one on property values since 1993.
The wave function collapsed over Christmas 2021, after Frost’s resignation.
Fewer people think Brexit has gone well than believe the moon landings were faked.
The incoming government has no interest in maintaining Brexit, only in mitigating it. Brexit is now short-hand for arrant stupidity, bordering on suicide. They should probably rename the Darwin Awards the Brexit Awards.
Like @Richard Tyndall, I sometimes wish the Conservative Party would just disappear. But, I doubt if a replacement would be any better.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/october/8/newsid_2544000/2544105.stm
The short term one is the "Brexit as an unwanted gift" issue- we may want to send it to the local recycling centre, but that would create a scene. And we're British, dammit. We hate creating scenes.
The longer term one is that none of the realistic alternatives to this version of Brexit are actually popular. They'd mostly be better than this, but none of them are popular. Until that changes, inertia wins.
Greece showing a rare rightwing victory despite most of the west swing to the social democratic left post pandemic
I don’t get this obsession some have for it being ‘a state of mind’ or a ‘governing philosophy’.
Brexit happened.
Two other things have also happened that have wrecked the economies around the world. Too much of the state of the nation is laid at Brexits door, mainly by those who hated Brexit.
“It hasn’t been as bad as a global pandemic or war in Europe”.