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Starmer looks set to become PM but will LAB have a majority? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,415
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    What is the PB post that has aged the poorest?

    Deffo @Roger from September 2007 telling us all that the run on Northern Rock would be all forgotten about by the end of the week...
    Mystic Rose posted quite energetically about the coming Trump landslide in 2020.
    Compouter's posts about Ed Miliband's triumphant 2015 General Election.
    IOS and his Labour ground game posts were fab.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,441

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit constantly claims that Brexit delivered a wage rise for the lower paid, and then cites Stuart Rose’s gaffe during the campaign as a killer quote.

    He does this about once a week and usually gets a handful of “likes”.

    There’s bugger all evidence of any wage rise, save for spikes in very specific jobs (truck drivers) where Brexit caused a sudden shock to labour supply.

    Brexit related inflation (ie the knock on effect of increased distribution costs) pretty quickly dissipated any gains, and Brexit related productivity stagnation has permanently impaired everybody’s ability to command a higher wage.

    And we’ve had even higher migration since, much of it quite low skilled.

    Have you talked to anyone who employees people? Wage rises and difficulty in getting people are two major topics for all the people I know, who are employing people in the lower end of the job market.
    Is this the old "PB anecdote vs data" phenomenon that people talk about?
    I am involved with two companies that employ people in construction. Wages have gone up, probably a bit more than inflation, for the lowest paid. Everyone else in the industry says the same.
    Hang on, I thought you were working to automate the front-to-back trade flows at a bank?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,415
    edited May 2023
    I don’t wish to alarm PBers but I’m in charge the whole of next weekend.

    Plan accordingly.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    I don’t wish to alarm PBers but I’m in charge the whole of next weekend.

    Plan accordingly.

    Nothing will happen
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,028

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dialup said:

    I would just ask. Can anyone name a tangible Brexit benefit as of right now for anyone under the age of 45? Thanks.

    Nigel Farage is not on the TV all the time
    He's still the conscience of the nation.


    Nicotine stained finger still on the aged faltering valetudinarian pulse of the nation.





    That dam busters dog story feels like it could become ground zero for the British culture war, it's not surprising that Farage is all over it like a nasty rash. I feel certain it is going to provide the most exquisite entertainment.
    It's not like the MoD are going to chuck N*****'s skeleton into the sea at Skeggy. They are moving it to Marham to be with the Hole in the Wall Gang which makes a sort of sense. The gammons are going be more livid if they leave it at Scampton and a fugee shits on it or something when the joint becomes an asylum centre.
    After I deciphered your code, I laughed a lot!
    Dura Ace needs to type up that auto biography - before he loses all his fingers in the garage workshop.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Reading Blair's memoirs.

    Goodness me the shit that has come since.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    https://twitter.com/DeidreBrock/status/1656697633728000000

    Excellent work. Labour's "coalition of chaos" becomes more nonsensical every day.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,879

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    nico679 said:

    When will net migration be in the tens of thousands ?

    Never. The UK will likely always remain a desirable place for immigrants to move to.
    We had net emigration in the 1980s under Mrs Thatcher.

    Indeed, it included me, as I was away 18 months in Australasia.
    Exactly ditto! I lived for 18 months in Sydney in the 80s. I missed the Summer Of Love. Who knows the long term ramifications of this. Eg there's a hole in my centre where the Summer Of Love would have been. I have no emotional relationship whatsoever with the Stone Roses, Happy Mondays, "Bez", etc.
    It's not too late to develop a deep and abiding love for the Mondays or the Stone Roses. I missed the summer of love too - I don't think it really made it to Fife - but my wife who is a lot cooler than me really turned me on to their music in the mid-90s. We went to see the Stone Roses play in Finsbury Park a few years ago - one of the best gigs I've ever been to, a sea of centrist dads (and mums) reliving their misspent youth.
    Try The House of Love. They were the best band of that era. Their problem, though, was that they came from London rather than Manchester.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,879
    edited May 2023
    kinabalu said:

    FFS to several of you.
    There was only one Summer of Love, and it was 1967.

    Yes. But I couldn't get too much out of it at 6. Then I go and miss the re-run when I really could have done some damage. Poor from me.
    Make sure you’re around for summer 2027. Nail it third time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,205
    "The UK government has said it will investigate after the Post Office admitted it had wrongly paid thousands of pounds of bonuses to top executives simply for cooperating with an inquiry into a long-running miscarriage of justice.

    The Post Office chief executive, Nick Read, agreed last week to return an undisclosed portion of the £455,000 bonus reported by the state-owned company in its annual report in March.

    Kevin Hollinrake, a minister at the Department for Business and Trade, on Wednesday told parliament he had commissioned the government investigation into how the bonuses were awarded, as furious MPs said the Post Office had “added insult to injury” with the latest twist in the scandal.

    “The situation is extremely concerning and deeply regrettable, and the Post Office is right to apologise,” Hollinrake said in response to an urgent question."

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/10/uk-government-investigate-post-office-horizon-scandal-wrongly-paid-bonus-nick-read
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,879
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    What is the PB post that has aged the poorest?

    Deffo @Roger from September 2007 telling us all that the run on Northern Rock would be all forgotten about by the end of the week...
    Mystic Rose posted quite energetically about the coming Trump landslide in 2020.
    Compouter's posts about Ed Miliband's triumphant 2015 General Election.
    Don’t remember Compouter. But BJO energetically and repeatedly claimed that Ed would be PM in 2015. What’s he predicting these days?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 924
    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Dialup said:

    I would just ask. Can anyone name a tangible Brexit benefit as of right now for anyone under the age of 45? Thanks.

    Increased wages for lower skilled workers.
    Granted the benefit of that has now been eroded by inflation. But inflation has happened everywhere.

    Harder to say what the benefit has been for the graduate class, not least because far fewer restrictions were placed on the arrival of the knowledge class.

    All quite difficult to say for sure because we will never have a counterfactual, and so much has happened in the last seven years that it is hard to unpick the impacts of one thing from another.
    Have the wages for lower skilled workers notably increased? The fact that we now have record levels of immigration - the government must want them here for some purpose - kind of suggests not.
    Well they did, very quickly after Brexit. But then, covid/Ukraine-triggered inflation, and everyone got poorer.
    I think you over-credit the government with planning immigration in response to demand or otherwise. My take is that government is incapable of restricting immigration in a way which it is willing to take the political hit for doing so. It is just reacting (or not) to events.
    Ukrainians and HK Chinese are special cases, of course.
    Source?

    This isn't granular enough (in terms of wage cohorts) but I'd have expected to be able to see what you're referring to and I don't. Got some better data to prove your point?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kac3/lms
    Would still like to know about this. I've only ever heard anecdotes and never seen any data for this "post Brexit wage rise".
    Sandpit must surely have the data as he posts with absolute conviction about it once a week.
    Plenty of anecdotal evidence. The key thing is to look at pay rises for people, which have far outstripped pay rises for jobs. People who were working in cafes before the pandemic, are now working as delivery drivers.
    I'm interpreting that as "no data" then
    It’s simply not something on which data is published.

    Have the official statistics for job vacancies instead, which showed a record high over Christmas.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/latest


    That's presumably quite a lot of work not getting done.

    And yet employers appear to have reached the limits of how much they are willing/able to increase pay.
    We've gone from "wages went up for low-pay sectors post Brexit and pre covid" to "there were a lot of vacancies 5 months ago".

    There's no data here, just wishful thinking (or lies)
    Did you miss the bit on supply and demand in economics 101? If demand for workers is presently outstripping supply, what does that probably say about the direction of travel of the price?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,239

    Dialup said:

    What is the PB post that has aged the poorest?

    That's a highly competitive field, but a leading contender would be the remark by Leon that enabled him to wrestle the position of PB anti-tipster from Roger's grasp.

    It was something to do with Truss having the potential to surprise on the upside, if I recall correctly.
    The one about a hitherto sceptical Britain falling boundlessly in love with Liz Truss after a journalist fainted in front of her at a Tory leadership debate was a goodie.
    I argued a few times that Boris Johnson would increase his majority at a general election in 2024.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,205
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    nico679 said:

    When will net migration be in the tens of thousands ?

    Never. The UK will likely always remain a desirable place for immigrants to move to.
    We had net emigration in the 1980s under Mrs Thatcher.

    Indeed, it included me, as I was away 18 months in Australasia.
    Exactly ditto! I lived for 18 months in Sydney in the 80s. I missed the Summer Of Love. Who knows the long term ramifications of this. Eg there's a hole in my centre where the Summer Of Love would have been. I have no emotional relationship whatsoever with the Stone Roses, Happy Mondays, "Bez", etc.
    A lot of people say Australia in the 80s and 90s was a fantastic place to be, (more so than now). Was that true?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,781
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Google maps also tends to understate how long it will take to drive anywhere - though maybe that's just me!
    That's funny. I find Google maps usually spot on in terms of time, but under-reads the speedo by 5% or more. I had assumed the GPS was more accurate than the speedo (since by law these can't under-read but can over-read), but I'm not convinced that the GPS recorded speed is completely accurate?
    Google Maps on your phone is going to be damn close, if you’re doing a steady speed on a straight road. Much more so than a mechanical spedo.

    There are dedicated in-car race GPS boxes, from companies like Racelogic and Dragy, that have a high resolution and will be more accurate still.
    That’s reassuring, except that I was done on an average speed camera on the M20 for driving above 40mph, when the car showed me at 45mlh and the GPS at pretty close to 40mph. It wasn’t worth arguing about - I simply did an online speed awareness course - but it did suggest to me either that the margin of error on average speed traps has been almost eliminated or that my Google Maps GPS speed was under-estimated.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    What is the PB post that has aged the poorest?

    Deffo @Roger from September 2007 telling us all that the run on Northern Rock would be all forgotten about by the end of the week...
    Mystic Rose posted quite energetically about the coming Trump landslide in 2020.
    Compouter's posts about Ed Miliband's triumphant 2015 General Election.
    Don’t remember Compouter. But BJO energetically and repeatedly claimed that Ed would be PM in 2015. What’s he predicting these days?
    BJO has a terrible prediction record, it is kind of astonishing actually. He deserves a lot of credit for coming back and carrying on in good grace, nice chap.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003
    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Audience laughs when Helen Whately says it will take 25 years for water companies to fix raw sewage #BBCQT

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1656756826111614976

    Why do the Tories let Helen Whately out? She is worth votes to Labour every time she opens her mouth.

    So what's your estimate of how long it will take?
    If Keir Starmer was saying 25 years you'd be saying how ludicrous that is. And rightfully so.

    (Snip)
    I've recently mentioned the complexities of sorting this issue out; and it is massively complex and expensive. It's also an area (civ eng / groundworks) I have a little knowledge and a lot of passion for.

    So no, I wouldn't claim how ludicrous it is. And from your response, I guess you've got no idea yourself.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,364
    Surely the coalition of chaos slogan the Tories will aim at Labour will be laughed at by the public .

    Anyone falling for that slogan is clearly a moron.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit constantly claims that Brexit delivered a wage rise for the lower paid, and then cites Stuart Rose’s gaffe during the campaign as a killer quote.

    He does this about once a week and usually gets a handful of “likes”.

    There’s bugger all evidence of any wage rise, save for spikes in very specific jobs (truck drivers) where Brexit caused a sudden shock to labour supply.

    Brexit related inflation (ie the knock on effect of increased distribution costs) pretty quickly dissipated any gains, and Brexit related productivity stagnation has permanently impaired everybody’s ability to command a higher wage.

    And we’ve had even higher migration since, much of it quite low skilled.

    Have you talked to anyone who employees people? Wage rises and difficulty in getting people are two major topics for all the people I know, who are employing people in the lower end of the job market.
    Is this the old "PB anecdote vs data" phenomenon that people talk about?
    I am involved with two companies that employ people in construction. Wages have gone up, probably a bit more than inflation, for the lowest paid. Everyone else in the industry says the same.
    I’m happy to accept this.
    It’s still anecdotal, but at least it comes from a place of experience.

    The broader claim, though, that Brexit has delivered a sustainable rise in wages for the lower skilled, is basically copium for the berks that voted to Leave.
    It is also true that for a broad range of low end jobs, wages have shifted from minimum wage.

    All the supermarkets are advertising higher wages. Lorry drivers. Pub staff…

    I voted remain - but denying what I have to actually sign of (wage increases) strikes me as complete Donald Fucking Trump level shit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,441

    kinabalu said:

    FFS to several of you.
    There was only one Summer of Love, and it was 1967.

    Yes. But I couldn't get too much out of it at 6. Then I go and miss the re-run when I really could have done some damage. Poor from me.
    Make sure you’re around for summer 2027. Nail it third time.
    That's a definite goal. I've started training for it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,205
    "Vote Labour to get immigration under control." The Tories are finished if voters start to believe that statement.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,378
    edited May 2023
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Google maps also tends to understate how long it will take to drive anywhere - though maybe that's just me!
    That's funny. I find Google maps usually spot on in terms of time, but under-reads the speedo by 5% or more. I had assumed the GPS was more accurate than the speedo (since by law these can't under-read but can over-read), but I'm not convinced that the GPS recorded speed is completely accurate?
    Google Maps on your phone is going to be damn close, if you’re doing a steady speed on a straight road. Much more so than a mechanical spedo.

    There are dedicated in-car race GPS boxes, from companies like Racelogic and Dragy, that have a high resolution and will be more accurate still.
    That’s reassuring, except that I was done on an average speed camera on the M20 for driving above 40mph, when the car showed me at 45mlh and the GPS at pretty close to 40mph. It wasn’t worth arguing about - I simply did an online speed awareness course - but it did suggest to me either that the margin of error on average speed traps has been almost eliminated or that my Google Maps GPS speed was under-estimated.
    If I was done by an average speed camera, I’d always go to court. Ask them for the distance between the cameras, the calibration certificates for every piece of equipment involved, including that which measured the distance, the distance between the car and the camera when it was photographed. The training record of the officer who wrote the ticket, who you expect to appear in court. There’s so much they can get wrong with that setup.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Audience laughs when Helen Whately says it will take 25 years for water companies to fix raw sewage #BBCQT

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1656756826111614976

    Why do the Tories let Helen Whately out? She is worth votes to Labour every time she opens her mouth.

    So what's your estimate of how long it will take?
    If Keir Starmer was saying 25 years you'd be saying how ludicrous that is. And rightfully so.

    (Snip)
    I've recently mentioned the complexities of sorting this issue out; and it is massively complex and expensive. It's also an area (civ eng / groundworks) I have a little knowledge and a lot of passion for.

    So no, I wouldn't claim how ludicrous it is. And from your response, I guess you've got no idea yourself.
    Surely the main problem is emergency, storm release procedures are now being operated all year around and with no sanction. It's far cheaper to pump **** into surface waters than it is to process ****. It's a scandal, allowed with tacit agreement from your government.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,441
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    nico679 said:

    When will net migration be in the tens of thousands ?

    Never. The UK will likely always remain a desirable place for immigrants to move to.
    We had net emigration in the 1980s under Mrs Thatcher.

    Indeed, it included me, as I was away 18 months in Australasia.
    Exactly ditto! I lived for 18 months in Sydney in the 80s. I missed the Summer Of Love. Who knows the long term ramifications of this. Eg there's a hole in my centre where the Summer Of Love would have been. I have no emotional relationship whatsoever with the Stone Roses, Happy Mondays, "Bez", etc.
    A lot of people say Australia in the 80s and 90s was a fantastic place to be, (more so than now). Was that true?
    I had a great time but 18 months was about right. My son was born there actually.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175
    Dialup said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    What is the PB post that has aged the poorest?

    Deffo @Roger from September 2007 telling us all that the run on Northern Rock would be all forgotten about by the end of the week...
    Mystic Rose posted quite energetically about the coming Trump landslide in 2020.
    Compouter's posts about Ed Miliband's triumphant 2015 General Election.
    Don’t remember Compouter. But BJO energetically and repeatedly claimed that Ed would be PM in 2015. What’s he predicting these days?
    BJO has a terrible prediction record, it is kind of astonishing actually. He deserves a lot of credit for coming back and carrying on in good grace, nice chap.
    Even with the benefit of hindsight his rear view mirror predictions aren't too hot. "Jeremy Corbyn won GE2017" is a regular favourite.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Audience laughs when Helen Whately says it will take 25 years for water companies to fix raw sewage #BBCQT

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1656756826111614976

    Why do the Tories let Helen Whately out? She is worth votes to Labour every time she opens her mouth.

    So what's your estimate of how long it will take?
    If Keir Starmer was saying 25 years you'd be saying how ludicrous that is. And rightfully so.

    (Snip)
    I've recently mentioned the complexities of sorting this issue out; and it is massively complex and expensive. It's also an area (civ eng / groundworks) I have a little knowledge and a lot of passion for.

    So no, I wouldn't claim how ludicrous it is. And from your response, I guess you've got no idea yourself.
    To intercept and treat the outflows in question, will require major works in most cases.

    The Thames Super Sewer project was kicked off (as an analysis/consultation) in 2001 and is due to be finally completed in 2025.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,692

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit constantly claims that Brexit delivered a wage rise for the lower paid, and then cites Stuart Rose’s gaffe during the campaign as a killer quote.

    He does this about once a week and usually gets a handful of “likes”.

    There’s bugger all evidence of any wage rise, save for spikes in very specific jobs (truck drivers) where Brexit caused a sudden shock to labour supply.

    Brexit related inflation (ie the knock on effect of increased distribution costs) pretty quickly dissipated any gains, and Brexit related productivity stagnation has permanently impaired everybody’s ability to command a higher wage.

    And we’ve had even higher migration since, much of it quite low skilled.

    Have you talked to anyone who employees people? Wage rises and difficulty in getting people are two major topics for all the people I know, who are employing people in the lower end of the job market.
    Is this the old "PB anecdote vs data" phenomenon that people talk about?
    I am involved with two companies that employ people in construction. Wages have gone up, probably a bit more than inflation, for the lowest paid. Everyone else in the industry says the same.
    I’m happy to accept this.
    It’s still anecdotal, but at least it comes from a place of experience.

    The broader claim, though, that Brexit has delivered a sustainable rise in wages for the lower skilled, is basically copium for the berks that voted to Leave.
    It is also true that for a broad range of low end jobs, wages have shifted from minimum wage.

    All the supermarkets are advertising higher wages. Lorry drivers. Pub staff…

    I voted remain - but denying what I have to actually sign of (wage increases) strikes me as complete Donald Fucking Trump level shit.
    The minimum wage hasn’t risen to the same extent as inflation so it’s not a great metric.

    The Trump reference is a self own on your part.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,015
    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    What is the PB post that has aged the poorest?

    Deffo @Roger from September 2007 telling us all that the run on Northern Rock would be all forgotten about by the end of the week...
    Or NPxMP telling us that the Russian military build-up was just for show

  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Andy_JS said:

    "Vote Labour to get immigration under control." The Tories are finished if voters start to believe that statement.

    Well their current policy framework says no return to free movement + points-based immigration system.

    So the Tories have been particularly dumb by saying they'll stop the boats. They have clearly lost all political ability after being in Government too long.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,781
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Google maps also tends to understate how long it will take to drive anywhere - though maybe that's just me!
    That's funny. I find Google maps usually spot on in terms of time, but under-reads the speedo by 5% or more. I had assumed the GPS was more accurate than the speedo (since by law these can't under-read but can over-read), but I'm not convinced that the GPS recorded speed is completely accurate?
    Google Maps on your phone is going to be damn close, if you’re doing a steady speed on a straight road. Much more so than a mechanical spedo.

    There are dedicated in-car race GPS boxes, from companies like Racelogic and Dragy, that have a high resolution and will be more accurate still.
    That’s reassuring, except that I was done on an average speed camera on the M20 for driving above 40mph, when the car showed me at 45mlh and the GPS at pretty close to 40mph. It wasn’t worth arguing about - I simply did an online speed awareness course - but it did suggest to me either that the margin of error on average speed traps has been almost eliminated or that my Google Maps GPS speed was under-estimated.
    If I was done by an average speed camera, I’d always go to court. Ask them for the distance between the cameras, the calibration certificates for every piece of equipment involved, including that which measured the distance, the distance between the car and the camera when it was photographed. The training record of the officer who wrote the ticket, who you expect to appear in court. There’s so much they can get wrong with that setup.
    That sounds like that guy who makes a living challenging speeding fines.

    Whereas I had to sit with my iPad on zoom half listening to the speed awareness course whilst having PB up on my PC engaging in online chat with you lot. Which was definitely the path of least resistance.

    My perception is that the margin of error with speed cameras is slowly being reduced. Thankfully Brexit (lol, as a committed remainer) is getting us off speed cameras in Europe - where the same thing is happening. The Swiss never gave much of a margin of error but I was told by my hotel owner last week that France is going the same way. Certainly, download Waze and France appears covered in police who have nothing better to do than sit at the side of the road trying to catch people who are speeding.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,415

    NEW THREAD

  • DialupDialup Posts: 561

    Dialup said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    What is the PB post that has aged the poorest?

    Deffo @Roger from September 2007 telling us all that the run on Northern Rock would be all forgotten about by the end of the week...
    Mystic Rose posted quite energetically about the coming Trump landslide in 2020.
    Compouter's posts about Ed Miliband's triumphant 2015 General Election.
    Don’t remember Compouter. But BJO energetically and repeatedly claimed that Ed would be PM in 2015. What’s he predicting these days?
    BJO has a terrible prediction record, it is kind of astonishing actually. He deserves a lot of credit for coming back and carrying on in good grace, nice chap.
    Even with the benefit of hindsight his rear view mirror predictions aren't too hot. "Jeremy Corbyn won GE2017" is a regular favourite.
    I particularly enjoy when he proclaims JC won in 2017 despite doing worse than Gordon Brown, who he says lost.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Audience laughs when Helen Whately says it will take 25 years for water companies to fix raw sewage #BBCQT

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1656756826111614976

    Why do the Tories let Helen Whately out? She is worth votes to Labour every time she opens her mouth.

    So what's your estimate of how long it will take?
    If Keir Starmer was saying 25 years you'd be saying how ludicrous that is. And rightfully so.

    (Snip)
    I've recently mentioned the complexities of sorting this issue out; and it is massively complex and expensive. It's also an area (civ eng / groundworks) I have a little knowledge and a lot of passion for.

    So no, I wouldn't claim how ludicrous it is. And from your response, I guess you've got no idea yourself.
    Surely the main problem is emergency, storm release procedures are now being operated all year around and with no sanction. It's far cheaper to pump **** into surface waters than it is to process ****. It's a scandal, allowed with tacit agreement from your government.
    There are many problems. Non-separation of 'dirty' water with rainwater runoff is a massive one - many new developments (such as mine) separate the two. This, along with SuDS, means the amount of dirty water being released into watercourses is not just minimised, but stopped.

    Then you have the new measuring standards, which are almost certainly inflating the figures a lot.

    It's not that it's 'cheaper' to pump into surface waters; it's that it's all they can do. They have no choice (or I suppose they could allow the pipes to back up...). Fixing this is highly non-trivial; and one of the best ways is to try to separate rainwater run off from sewage. And it doesn't need a brain of Britain to see how difficult that is on existing developments...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit constantly claims that Brexit delivered a wage rise for the lower paid, and then cites Stuart Rose’s gaffe during the campaign as a killer quote.

    He does this about once a week and usually gets a handful of “likes”.

    There’s bugger all evidence of any wage rise, save for spikes in very specific jobs (truck drivers) where Brexit caused a sudden shock to labour supply.

    Brexit related inflation (ie the knock on effect of increased distribution costs) pretty quickly dissipated any gains, and Brexit related productivity stagnation has permanently impaired everybody’s ability to command a higher wage.

    And we’ve had even higher migration since, much of it quite low skilled.

    Have you talked to anyone who employees people? Wage rises and difficulty in getting people are two major topics for all the people I know, who are employing people in the lower end of the job market.
    Is this the old "PB anecdote vs data" phenomenon that people talk about?
    I am involved with two companies that employ people in construction. Wages have gone up, probably a bit more than inflation, for the lowest paid. Everyone else in the industry says the same.
    I’m happy to accept this.
    It’s still anecdotal, but at least it comes from a place of experience.

    The broader claim, though, that Brexit has delivered a sustainable rise in wages for the lower skilled, is basically copium for the berks that voted to Leave.
    It is also true that for a broad range of low end jobs, wages have shifted from minimum wage.

    All the supermarkets are advertising higher wages. Lorry drivers. Pub staff…

    I voted remain - but denying what I have to actually sign of (wage increases) strikes me as complete Donald Fucking Trump level shit.
    The minimum wage hasn’t risen to the same extent as inflation so it’s not a great metric.

    The Trump reference is a self own on your part.
    I have to sign off on the wage increases. Am I supposed to deny they are happening?

    Once again - wages at the bottom end have risen. Sometimes exceeding inflation. This is true from the evidence of my own business experience and working with suppliers.

    This is required to get the workers.

    That this is a driver for inflation in the U.K. is quite evident.

    I get that people find it upsetting to talk about. But denying it is as stupid as the people who claim there is no housing shortage.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,378
    edited May 2023
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Google maps also tends to understate how long it will take to drive anywhere - though maybe that's just me!
    That's funny. I find Google maps usually spot on in terms of time, but under-reads the speedo by 5% or more. I had assumed the GPS was more accurate than the speedo (since by law these can't under-read but can over-read), but I'm not convinced that the GPS recorded speed is completely accurate?
    Google Maps on your phone is going to be damn close, if you’re doing a steady speed on a straight road. Much more so than a mechanical spedo.

    There are dedicated in-car race GPS boxes, from companies like Racelogic and Dragy, that have a high resolution and will be more accurate still.
    That’s reassuring, except that I was done on an average speed camera on the M20 for driving above 40mph, when the car showed me at 45mlh and the GPS at pretty close to 40mph. It wasn’t worth arguing about - I simply did an online speed awareness course - but it did suggest to me either that the margin of error on average speed traps has been almost eliminated or that my Google Maps GPS speed was under-estimated.
    If I was done by an average speed camera, I’d always go to court. Ask them for the distance between the cameras, the calibration certificates for every piece of equipment involved, including that which measured the distance, the distance between the car and the camera when it was photographed. The training record of the officer who wrote the ticket, who you expect to appear in court. There’s so much they can get wrong with that setup.
    That sounds like that guy who makes a living challenging speeding fines.

    Whereas I had to sit with my iPad on zoom half listening to the speed awareness course whilst having PB up on my PC engaging in online chat with you lot. Which was definitely the path of least resistance.

    My perception is that the margin of error with speed cameras is slowly being reduced. Thankfully Brexit (lol, as a committed remainer) is getting us off speed cameras in Europe - where the same thing is happening. The Swiss never gave much of a margin of error but I was told by my hotel owner last week that France is going the same way. Certainly, download Waze and France appears covered in police who have nothing better to do than sit at the side of the road trying to catch people who are speeding.
    Oh, if you can get away with the course, then always take it.

    I have several friends that go from the UK to the Le Mans 24h race each year. To say that every Gendarme in France was assigned to any conceivable route between Calais, St Marlo, and Le Mans, would appear to be something of an understatement. Not there aren’t tens of thousands of Brits heading down there, mostly in very nice sports cars, intending to make the trip considerably faster than the posted speed limits might suggest. The favourite one is the Autoroute exit gate, where they compute an average speed between the toll gates!
  • theProletheProle Posts: 924
    edited May 2023

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit constantly claims that Brexit delivered a wage rise for the lower paid, and then cites Stuart Rose’s gaffe during the campaign as a killer quote.

    He does this about once a week and usually gets a handful of “likes”.

    There’s bugger all evidence of any wage rise, save for spikes in very specific jobs (truck drivers) where Brexit caused a sudden shock to labour supply.

    Brexit related inflation (ie the knock on effect of increased distribution costs) pretty quickly dissipated any gains, and Brexit related productivity stagnation has permanently impaired everybody’s ability to command a higher wage.

    And we’ve had even higher migration since, much of it quite low skilled.

    Have you talked to anyone who employees people? Wage rises and difficulty in getting people are two major topics for all the people I know, who are employing people in the lower end of the job market.
    Is this the old "PB anecdote vs data" phenomenon that people talk about?
    I am involved with two companies that employ people in construction. Wages have gone up, probably a bit more than inflation, for the lowest paid. Everyone else in the industry says the same.
    I’m happy to accept this.
    It’s still anecdotal, but at least it comes from a place of experience.

    The broader claim, though, that Brexit has delivered a sustainable rise in wages for the lower skilled, is basically copium for the berks that voted to Leave.
    It is also true that for a broad range of low end jobs, wages have shifted from minimum wage.

    All the supermarkets are advertising higher wages. Lorry drivers. Pub staff…

    I voted remain - but denying what I have to actually sign of (wage increases) strikes me as complete Donald Fucking Trump level shit.
    The minimum wage hasn’t risen to the same extent as inflation so it’s not a great metric.

    The Trump reference is a self own on your part.
    Thing is that most of the inflation has very little to do with Brexit, and a lot more to do with a massive energy price shock. Without the energy shock wages would still have gone up a lot for lower earners, and it would feel like a lot to them too.

    What's I think has happened is that lower earners (who tend to do actual useful stuff rather than sitting in offices doing the paperwork) are really in demand, and their wages have kept up with or overtaken inflation. Middle class pen pushers and desk jockeys aren't quite so desperately in demand, as companies are finding ways to just live without them rather than bumping their wages, and inflation is really hurting the B-Ark sector of the middle class.

    Thus we have endless wailing about it in the media, as guess which category journalists fall into?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 43,449
    edited May 2023

    carnforth said:

    Sandpit constantly claims that Brexit delivered a wage rise for the lower paid, and then cites Stuart Rose’s gaffe during the campaign as a killer quote.

    He does this about once a week and usually gets a handful of “likes”.

    There’s bugger all evidence of any wage rise, save for spikes in very specific jobs (truck drivers) where Brexit caused a sudden shock to labour supply.

    Brexit related inflation (ie the knock on effect of increased distribution costs) pretty quickly dissipated any gains, and Brexit related productivity stagnation has permanently impaired everybody’s ability to command a higher wage.

    And we’ve had even higher migration since, much of it quite low skilled.

    Have you talked to anyone who employees people? Wage rises and difficulty in getting people are two major topics for all the people I know, who are employing people in the lower end of the job market.
    Going for the easy likes? Tut!

    Wage rises? Remind me what food inflation is currently running at?
    UK: Food inflation 19%, wages up by 6%
    Germany: Food inflation 22%, wages up by 3%

    Less bad is a kind of good.
    Sounds like a recipe for Sauerkraut.
    It goes from bad to wurst.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Audience laughs when Helen Whately says it will take 25 years for water companies to fix raw sewage #BBCQT

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1656756826111614976

    Why do the Tories let Helen Whately out? She is worth votes to Labour every time she opens her mouth.

    So what's your estimate of how long it will take?
    If Keir Starmer was saying 25 years you'd be saying how ludicrous that is. And rightfully so.

    (Snip)
    I've recently mentioned the complexities of sorting this issue out; and it is massively complex and expensive. It's also an area (civ eng / groundworks) I have a little knowledge and a lot of passion for.

    So no, I wouldn't claim how ludicrous it is. And from your response, I guess you've got no idea yourself.
    Surely the main problem is emergency, storm release procedures are now being operated all year around and with no sanction. It's far cheaper to pump **** into surface waters than it is to process ****. It's a scandal, allowed with tacit agreement from your government.
    There are many problems. Non-separation of 'dirty' water with rainwater runoff is a massive one - many new developments (such as mine) separate the two. This, along with SuDS, means the amount of dirty water being released into watercourses is not just minimised, but stopped.

    Then you have the new measuring standards, which are almost certainly inflating the figures a lot.

    It's not that it's 'cheaper' to pump into surface waters; it's that it's all they can do. They have no choice (or I suppose they could allow the pipes to back up...). Fixing this is highly non-trivial; and one of the best ways is to try to separate rainwater run off from sewage. And it doesn't need a brain of Britain to see how difficult that is on existing developments...
    I was working as a consultant to Enterprise plc who were infrastructure contractors for Thames Water at Lea Valley circa 2005/6. They would complain then that Thames Water would only pay for sticking plaster solutions to resolving issues with the Victorian pipe and sewer system.

    A significant volume of water was lost to leakage prior to arriving at the tap and nearly twenty years on that is still the case. There has been little investment in treatment stations to cope with increased demands from increased housing and population.

    Most companies are owned as profit generating cash cows for foreign owners. Privatisation has been disastrous. Whateley (autocorrected as "Whatever") is probably right about it being a Herculean, Augean stable task, but the longer the status quo continues the worse the problem gets.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    theProle said:

    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Dialup said:

    I would just ask. Can anyone name a tangible Brexit benefit as of right now for anyone under the age of 45? Thanks.

    Increased wages for lower skilled workers.
    Granted the benefit of that has now been eroded by inflation. But inflation has happened everywhere.

    Harder to say what the benefit has been for the graduate class, not least because far fewer restrictions were placed on the arrival of the knowledge class.

    All quite difficult to say for sure because we will never have a counterfactual, and so much has happened in the last seven years that it is hard to unpick the impacts of one thing from another.
    Have the wages for lower skilled workers notably increased? The fact that we now have record levels of immigration - the government must want them here for some purpose - kind of suggests not.
    Well they did, very quickly after Brexit. But then, covid/Ukraine-triggered inflation, and everyone got poorer.
    I think you over-credit the government with planning immigration in response to demand or otherwise. My take is that government is incapable of restricting immigration in a way which it is willing to take the political hit for doing so. It is just reacting (or not) to events.
    Ukrainians and HK Chinese are special cases, of course.
    Source?

    This isn't granular enough (in terms of wage cohorts) but I'd have expected to be able to see what you're referring to and I don't. Got some better data to prove your point?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kac3/lms
    Would still like to know about this. I've only ever heard anecdotes and never seen any data for this "post Brexit wage rise".
    Sandpit must surely have the data as he posts with absolute conviction about it once a week.
    Plenty of anecdotal evidence. The key thing is to look at pay rises for people, which have far outstripped pay rises for jobs. People who were working in cafes before the pandemic, are now working as delivery drivers.
    I'm interpreting that as "no data" then
    It’s simply not something on which data is published.

    Have the official statistics for job vacancies instead, which showed a record high over Christmas.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/latest


    That's presumably quite a lot of work not getting done.

    And yet employers appear to have reached the limits of how much they are willing/able to increase pay.
    We've gone from "wages went up for low-pay sectors post Brexit and pre covid" to "there were a lot of vacancies 5 months ago".

    There's no data here, just wishful thinking (or lies)
    Did you miss the bit on supply and demand in economics 101? If demand for workers is presently outstripping supply, what does that probably say about the direction of travel of the price?
    Actually, I was trying to get an insight into the stratification of data for a timepoint where conditions were not the same as they are now. Unless you think present demand drives wages retroactively, in which case you need more than Economics 101, you probably need to go back to cause and effect basics, that most people have grasped before they've hit their second birthday. Numpty.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Audience laughs when Helen Whately says it will take 25 years for water companies to fix raw sewage #BBCQT

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1656756826111614976

    Why do the Tories let Helen Whately out? She is worth votes to Labour every time she opens her mouth.

    So what's your estimate of how long it will take?
    If Keir Starmer was saying 25 years you'd be saying how ludicrous that is. And rightfully so.

    (Snip)
    I've recently mentioned the complexities of sorting this issue out; and it is massively complex and expensive. It's also an area (civ eng / groundworks) I have a little knowledge and a lot of passion for.

    So no, I wouldn't claim how ludicrous it is. And from your response, I guess you've got no idea yourself.
    Surely the main problem is emergency, storm release procedures are now being operated all year around and with no sanction. It's far cheaper to pump **** into surface waters than it is to process ****. It's a scandal, allowed with tacit agreement from your government.
    There are many problems. Non-separation of 'dirty' water with rainwater runoff is a massive one - many new developments (such as mine) separate the two. This, along with SuDS, means the amount of dirty water being released into watercourses is not just minimised, but stopped.

    Then you have the new measuring standards, which are almost certainly inflating the figures a lot.

    It's not that it's 'cheaper' to pump into surface waters; it's that it's all they can do. They have no choice (or I suppose they could allow the pipes to back up...). Fixing this is highly non-trivial; and one of the best ways is to try to separate rainwater run off from sewage. And it doesn't need a brain of Britain to see how difficult that is on existing developments...
    I was working as a consultant to Enterprise plc who were infrastructure contractors for Thames Water at Lea Valley circa 2005/6. They would complain then that Thames Water would only pay for sticking plaster solutions to resolving issues with the Victorian pipe and sewer system.

    A significant volume of water was lost to leakage prior to arriving at the tap and nearly twenty years on that is still the case. There has been little investment in treatment stations to cope with increased demands from increased housing and population.

    Most companies are owned as profit generating cash cows for foreign owners. Privatisation has been disastrous. Whateley (autocorrected as "Whatever") is probably right about it being a Herculean, Augean stable task, but the longer the status quo continues the worse the problem gets.
    "...resolving issues with the Victorian pipe and sewer system. "

    And here we get to an important issue. By the time of water privtisation in 1989, the 'Victorian pipe and sewer system' was, at a minimum, over eighty years old. The water infrastructure was under-financed whilst nationalised as well. As all too frequently happens with UK governments and infrastructure.

    As it happens I can't see the point in water privatisation. But I fear concentrating on 'privatisation' as being the cause of the problem is being incredibly blind to the issues.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,460
    FF43 said:

    ..

    theProle said:

    FF43 said:

    Cookie said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    It's OK because the government is controlling immigration now that we have taken back control.
    Immigration is the one Brexit benefit according to the OBR analysis. Loss of investment and suppression of trade worse than it expected, but higher than expected immigration partly compensated, confirming their prediction of an overall 4% damage to the economy caused by Brexit.

    I think this means the UK will necessarily be more invested in high immigration outside of the EU than it was as a member. It no longer has the choice.
    I may be misunderstanding this, but surely there is no point to (picking numbers out of the air) a 1% increase in GNP if we also have a 1% increase in population? The country gets richer, but those riches have to be shared more widely - so individually, we don't get any richer.
    Immigration is a wash, I believe. Each immigrant will add as much to the economy as they increase the population. But overall GDP does matter for certain things including tax receipts and immigration can help productivity (another Brexit loss).
    In which case, immigration is going to be largely bad for us - the pressure it causes on housing alone does more damage than the benefits, and we should be targeting net zero migration.

    My suggestion would be that we ditch almost all the currently permitted "skilled worker" immigration, requiring you to need a job offer at £75k to come.

    I would also tighten up the family reunion rules, in particular blocking family reunion immigration unless one of the persons is a British Citizen (not merely someone with indefinite leave to remain).

    The student numbers thing is complicated - in theory students shouldn't add to the net migration numbers (for each one who comes, another should go) - what we need to do is to stop the leakage where people come as students and then don't go - given this is currently something like 26% of those coming on student visas it needs fixing urgently.
    Nevertheless I suspect we are in a high immigration post Brexit world. I don't see it changing.
    As said about other countries , give time limited visas and no access to public services until you have paid 2 years NI & Taxes plus a 10K deposit up front to cover anything that happens before you have cover. If illegal etc chuck them out pronto.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,460
    Sandpit said:

    Dialup said:

    I would just ask. Can anyone name a tangible Brexit benefit as of right now for anyone under the age of 45? Thanks.

    Wage increases for the unskilled. Sir Stuart Rose was right.

    Millions of British people, for whom previously the minimum wage was the maximum wage, now find themselves earning £12-£14 an hour, as employers fight to fill vacancies.

    Also a change in the balance of the relationship between employer and employee, now that there’s no longer an unlimited supply of minimum-wage labour available.

    Things that should attract widespread support from those on the political left, but for some reason don’t.
    Unfortunately the cost of living rises due to Brexit mean they are a lot worse off than they were before the pay increases. Also lots also still not getting near that and are much much worse off.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,460

    Sandpit constantly claims that Brexit delivered a wage rise for the lower paid, and then cites Stuart Rose’s gaffe during the campaign as a killer quote.

    He does this about once a week and usually gets a handful of “likes”.

    There’s bugger all evidence of any wage rise, save for spikes in very specific jobs (truck drivers) where Brexit caused a sudden shock to labour supply.

    Brexit related inflation (ie the knock on effect of increased distribution costs) pretty quickly dissipated any gains, and Brexit related productivity stagnation has permanently impaired everybody’s ability to command a higher wage.

    And we’ve had even higher migration since, much of it quite low skilled.

    Exactly the worst of both worlds
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