Last week’s locals weren’t quite as good as many within the Labour Party hoped but there is little doubt that the party is in good position to win back power at the next election. The big question is whether Starmer will have an overall majority or not and on that there are differing views.
Labour will be "in control" with far, far fewer than that.
None of the smaller Parties will bring down a minority government in any hurry. Because they won't be able to afford another election.
Nor will they want to, for risk of being blamed for it. Nor for risking yet another Tory government
A bit like the man from Dore Monte
I admire him for taking on the Corbynista.
There's a view amongst a lot of Tory PBers that 18 months is plenty of time to improve their position in the polls but it's also plenty of time for more shit to happen, more scandals, more 'events dear boy'. More time for the economic impact of higher interest rates to be felt, more time for public services to decline, etc. etc.
Things can quite easily get worse for the Tories imo.
That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority
Actual Polling % on the day
The new SNP being rubbish factor - Yes, No, How many seats involved
Tactical voting v UNS
The place to start is: What will be the party polling percentages, and what is the lead.
My current guess is that on the day Labour's lead will be under 10 percentage points, and they would only get a majority (325 seats) if SNP collapse bigly.
I very much get the idea UK -
1 stopped printing money too late,
2 started rate rises to combat inflation too late,
3 was left more exposed to expensive energy imports than similar countries to ours,
4 this biggest tax take ever is pushing up inflation,
5 UKs famous issue with sluggish productivity is pushing up inflation
(when she’s home working I can hear dear GF micro managing her staff all day long - is UK rubbish because we are the micro management capital of the world?)
Certainly all the wage deals - clearly needed when food inflation is 20% for so long! - not just public sector but private sector, is helping to maintain high inflation this year, and if inflation only halves to 5% that’s a nightmare scenario for government restoring incomes.
But when you stop printing money and magicking up electronic money in qualitative easing, how long does the impact of what went on before last for, months, years, through a decade? Has the BOE even stopped magicking money - when Bank of England helps out government by buying government bonds, such as to save pensions industry, is this fuelling inflation?
I’ve got a bad feeling about the UK finances and economy, and household income, not just for this year and 2024, but several years after that too. If there is a change of government, these sort of problems won’t just stop or go away based on that. In fact with swingback to the Tories leaving it increasingly like neither Tories or Lab + Lib getting working majority, that could lower our credit rating increasing our debt payments making our government poorer, whoever forms it - that’s exactly what happened to Frances rating, downgraded on basis protests against macron making it look like weak government.
IMS are gloomy on world growth for the whole of the next 4 years. With BOE now gloomy on halving double digit inflation this year, IMO brits are going to stay struggling for years, and the longevity of this hurts more all the time with nest eggs getting spent and more and more borrowing all just to survive, add in the high grocery prices add in high mortgage rates and rise in repossessions, add in ongoing disruption between worker/union employer/government over incomes and wages, the darker days of this credit squeeze are actually ahead of us, the worst of it will probably come the other side of the next general election.
High government debt, sluggish productivity, taxed to the hilt - its at least another three or four years of crisis, struggle and pain isn’t it?
Please pick me up on anything and crorrect me where wrong.
I'm not convinced that's a smoking gun.
Please feel free to check
Those who can only be happy when they and the country are getting richer have had a decade or so to rethink this. Further opportunities await.
Although he was on (a small) commission I suspect he was making as much as the train driver was.
1) That is not a pothole in a road. It's in the grass.
2) Very likely he is standing in the living room or conservatory of a fox or badger
3) Or he may in fact be a hobbit, or standing on one.
I don't really want that to happen, but that is what will happen barring unforeseen etc etc
I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
The fact Rishi's government is upsetting the ERG'ers and they are impotent to do anything about it, should be a plus for the government to be honest.
The thing about FPTP is what it gives and just as easily take away...
Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.
The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.
But so far they seem to have learned nothing. Exhibit A: Rishi Sunak attacking Rachel Reeves about economic credibility when his party trashed the economy just months ago?
His line seemed to be that 13 years ago Labour was bad, what?
Watch the full interview with @tnewtondunn from 10pm on First Edition.
The topic, which I’m very much on, is “Starmer looks set to become Primeminister”
On his first day in his first proper job since his personalise statutory instrument kicked in, he finds a note from Rishi Sunak
This time there right properly ain’t no money left. Enjoy!
PS me and all other non doms now naturalised in another country, so you ain’t getting a penny off us
So five years later, after five years of pain for household incomes, Conservative Party Leader Braverman asks the voters - anyone feel better off than they were five years ago?
The resounding answer from everyone is no.
If Braverman is unelectable in 2029, then Donald Trump is more than unelectable in 2016.
Meanwhile, to cheer you up, Rog, PBs emerging psephological talent has a smiley
On the graph, Labour are now smiling - whilst the Tory bust size just gets bigger and bigger
Manipulation of Mammaries in Variational Electoral Forecasting (c) MoonRabbit Psephology Unit, c/o Jade, London SW3
I am convinced Sunak and Hunt are seeking a closer relationship with the EU, as already demonstrated with the WF, and the forthcoming state visit of Charles to France. Furthermore he has an excellent working relationship with UVDL and is seeking to agree with the EU for Brits to use e gates
The ERG and hard Brexiteers are angry as they see their hopes flounder on reality, and no doubt a Starmer government would continue the new entente cordial that was impossible under Johnson and Truss
Labour has outlined the start of what may become policies.
Back a points-based immigration system
Have no return to freedom of movement
Sort out the points-based immigration system so that it ensures the economy has the skills it needs and that prolonged vacancies do not hold back growth in key sectors…
Put 13,000 more neighbourhood police officers and PCSOs back on Britain’s streets – paid for with the clear and tangible savings that can be delivered from a shared procurement and efficiencies plan for all police forces
Bring our railways into public ownership as contracts with existing operators expire, consistent with our fiscal rules, putting passengers at the heart of our railways and investing in a world–class network
Deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail and High Speed 2 in full…Deliver a long–term strategy for rail…give communities a greater say in local rail services
Reform our broken bus system…Give communities the ability to take on powers to franchise local bus services… lift the ban on municipal bus ownership
Abolish the House of Lords…establish a second chamber that is smaller, offers the taxpayer better value for money, and is reflective of the regions and nations with elected representatives rather than political appointees
Introduce votes for 16– and 17–year–olds
Reform planning and arcane land purchase rules to get Britain building, while fixing the country’s development model
Turbocharge gigabit broadband and develop UK supply chains in 5G technology
Nothing on planning for phone masts which is disappointing. Need more flesh on the bones for how we get proper 5G coverage on all railway lines, using things like Network Rail's Brighton Mainline pilot as inspiration would be a good idea. Planning changes to allow building of masts next to railways without rejection. Minimum coverage levels via SRN etc
Silk Road Drug Vendor Who Claimed To Commit Murders-For-Hire For Silk Road Founder Ross Ulbricht Charged With Narcotics And Money Laundering Conspiracies
IRS-CI Special Agent in Charge Thomas M. Fattorusso said: “Ellingson’s alleged criminal actions are far more egregious than just money laundering or the large quantities of narcotics trafficked through the ‘Silk Road’ online marketplace. He also claimed to have acted as the middleman between the Silk Road founder and murderers-for-hire. Now, Ellingson will face the consequences of his actions.”…
The trouble was from the moment Cameron quit everything just went from bad to worse and everyone's opinions got more and more entrenched.
But let's get phone masts built Keir, come on!
-Labour are against EVEL, and had MPs like John Reid in cabinet positions which were devolved in Scotland. I don't think Starmer gives a shit about the Daily Mail going nuts if he instructs Pamela Nash and Douglas Alexander to go through the 'Aye lobby' to get his NHS reforms through. Nobody will care other than people who would never vote Labour in a million years.
1. That I think the loser narrative for the Tories marks the end of Sunak's legendarily modest honeymoon period. Early days but the Labour polling lead post LE could be edging up a notch. I don't think it presages a challenge but it does mean there will be loud grumbles.
2. That analysis showing a 9 point Labour PNS lead is approx a 15 polling lead, so any Conservative swingback is from the polls looking broadly accurate and balanced by the wind out of Sunak's honeymoon. That is not where Is expect a GE to land, but it's a better position to start from.
3. Scotland does look to be a significant opening above the 10 seats I thought was a stretch possibility a few months ago. And the possible lower swing that Labour need to take power as a result
4. The Tories remain as ragged as 1997.
5. The promise of the LDs doing pretty well, maybe 25-30. With Labour much closer to the line because of Scotland that gives a stable range of options. (Ironically, an inverse 2015 result might not suit Labour in the same way it didn't really suit Cameron).
It's all abour perception. Things have changed forever. The Tories have nothing to lose. Labour have everything to lose.
BIGGER THAN CHILCOT. 9 years and £13 million in the making. I'd have rather had the Cyclefree/DavidL dream team.
ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:
2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
1997: Blair 11.3 million
1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
2001: Blair 9.1 million
2015: Miliband 8.1 million
2005: Blair 8.0 million
1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
2010: Brown 7.0 million
1983: Foot 6.9 million
With the exception of the Redfield & Wilton poll which now does look to be a bit of an outlier (shame), the week's polls show a solid Labour lead moving back to the high teens.
Swings in England of 14-15% are going to reduce the Conservative Parliamentary party by half if not more with tactical voting so it seems the next movements are to be "swingback" and the Don't Knows returning to the fold.
If you think about it, the amount of swing back between May and December 2019 was extraordinary but possibly atypical. There comes a point in any Government or time in Government when kicking them in the ballots locally just doesn't do it and a Parliamentary ballot-kicking is the last act of the drama and the first step on the road to renewal.
The seats coming up next year were last fought in 2021 as part of a much bigger set of local contests but in comparison 2021 had 4,737 seats contested and last Thursday had 8.057. In 2016, 2,769 seats were contested and it will be these which will be fought next year.
In 2021, the Conservatives got 36%, Labour 29% and the LDs 17%. Last week, it was 35-26 to Labour so that's an 8% swing - a repeat of that would see another round of Conservative losses less than six months from a possible October poll.
The question than becomes whether Sunak and Hunt will seek to buy votes with a possibly unaffordable tax cut as a last throw of the dice. Even that may not have the resonance it once did - it may simply be after 14 years the Conservatives will have run out of road.
They would be smart to haud weesht about it, but it'll be like Tourette's syndrome*, they'll just keep blurting it out and unwittingly minding the English voters that the Union is kinda sorta broken.
*Teuchtettes syndrome if you'll forgive the ugly pun
Sunak and Hunt are pragmatists and are making moves towards the EU as explained and Sunak is in a stronger position than many think as the ERG are much diminished and the party needs to move on from Johnson and Truss
I always felt the big turning point for him was March 2018 and Sailsbury. The country was basically attacked by an outside enemy and Corbyn did what he always does... Which is find a way for us (and USA) to be in the wrong and our enemies (in this case Russia) to have a point...
That was when the mask slipped for a lot of people IMO and a thrashing for Labour at any subsequent election become inevitable.