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Starmer looks set to become PM but will LAB have a majority? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,731
edited May 2023 in General
imageStarmer looks set to become PM but will LAB have a majority? – politicalbetting.com

Last week’s locals weren’t quite as good as many within the Labour Party hoped but there is little doubt that the party is in good position to win back power at the next election. The big question is whether Starmer will have an overall majority or not and on that there are differing views.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    Yes.

    I think.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    edited May 2023
    316-317?
    Labour will be "in control" with far, far fewer than that.
    None of the smaller Parties will bring down a minority government in any hurry. Because they won't be able to afford another election.
    Nor will they want to, for risk of being blamed for it. Nor for risking yet another Tory government
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173

    Yes.

    I think.

    However, when considering Scottish, Welsh and Nirish MPs, don't forget it's not just the SNP and PC ones which have to be discounted from "English" legislation. The same applies to Labour, Tory and LD MPs.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,737
    No
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    Yes.

    I think.

    SKS fan says yes

    A bit like the man from Dore Monte
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,636
    Of course Labour will have a majority!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    295-345 seats +/- 10% error

    #range
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    Yes.

    I think.

    SKS fan says yes

    A bit like the man from Dore Monte
    How many posts have you submitted within the last, say, 6 months that have NOT been about Sir Keir?

    Yours,

    A Fan
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 470
    If Labour have a majority in the UK as a whole (326 seats) than I can't see them not getting a majority in England (272). To do otherwise would be to get at least 55 seats out of the 89 in Scotland + Wales.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760

    Yes.

    I think.

    SKS fan says yes

    A bit like the man from Dore Monte
    I'm not a fan.

    I admire him for taking on the Corbynista.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    Some English teams know how to beat AZ Alkmaar of course
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,951
    Yes.

    There's a view amongst a lot of Tory PBers that 18 months is plenty of time to improve their position in the polls but it's also plenty of time for more shit to happen, more scandals, more 'events dear boy'. More time for the economic impact of higher interest rates to be felt, more time for public services to decline, etc. etc.

    Things can quite easily get worse for the Tories imo.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,137
    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    No.

    Next.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,737
    Several variables to take into account.

    Actual Polling % on the day
    The new SNP being rubbish factor - Yes, No, How many seats involved
    Tactical voting v UNS
    New boundaries.

    The place to start is: What will be the party polling percentages, and what is the lead.

    My current guess is that on the day Labour's lead will be under 10 percentage points, and they would only get a majority (325 seats) if SNP collapse bigly.
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,978
    There’s been nothing to suggest the Tories can improve their position. Interest rate rises will bite hard despite inflation slowing. The whole debacle today with the typical ERGers shows how fecked the Tories are
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    It doesn’t matter how great and knowledgeable a leading commentator like John Rentoul is, when it comes to Tory Swingback versus impact of LLG to vote tactically for MPs, Rentoul can’t know. I don’t even know. No one can know. Not now. And probably not even confident of prediction until within two weeks of polling date.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,522
    A strong yes from me.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    Yes.

    Next question.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    I feel much more confident about predicting the economic situation than the politics. The Financial situation is looking very clear to me right now. And if Starmer is seeing what I’m seeing, he ain’t going to like it.

    I very much get the idea UK -

    1 stopped printing money too late,
    2 started rate rises to combat inflation too late,
    3 was left more exposed to expensive energy imports than similar countries to ours,
    4 this biggest tax take ever is pushing up inflation,
    5 UKs famous issue with sluggish productivity is pushing up inflation

    (when she’s home working I can hear dear GF micro managing her staff all day long - is UK rubbish because we are the micro management capital of the world?)

    Certainly all the wage deals - clearly needed when food inflation is 20% for so long! - not just public sector but private sector, is helping to maintain high inflation this year, and if inflation only halves to 5% that’s a nightmare scenario for government restoring incomes.

    But when you stop printing money and magicking up electronic money in qualitative easing, how long does the impact of what went on before last for, months, years, through a decade? Has the BOE even stopped magicking money - when Bank of England helps out government by buying government bonds, such as to save pensions industry, is this fuelling inflation?

    I’ve got a bad feeling about the UK finances and economy, and household income, not just for this year and 2024, but several years after that too. If there is a change of government, these sort of problems won’t just stop or go away based on that. In fact with swingback to the Tories leaving it increasingly like neither Tories or Lab + Lib getting working majority, that could lower our credit rating increasing our debt payments making our government poorer, whoever forms it - that’s exactly what happened to Frances rating, downgraded on basis protests against macron making it look like weak government.

    IMS are gloomy on world growth for the whole of the next 4 years. With BOE now gloomy on halving double digit inflation this year, IMO brits are going to stay struggling for years, and the longevity of this hurts more all the time with nest eggs getting spent and more and more borrowing all just to survive, add in the high grocery prices add in high mortgage rates and rise in repossessions, add in ongoing disruption between worker/union employer/government over incomes and wages, the darker days of this credit squeeze are actually ahead of us, the worst of it will probably come the other side of the next general election.

    High government debt, sluggish productivity, taxed to the hilt - its at least another three or four years of crisis, struggle and pain isn’t it?

    Please pick me up on anything and crorrect me where wrong.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    So, the story is: person chairing inquiry into whether Johnson lied to parliament about Partygate spoke to person who conducted inquiry into Partygate, yes?

    I'm not convinced that's a smoking gun.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1656757587826601993
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,636
    DougSeal said:

    Some English teams know how to beat AZ Alkmaar of course

    1-1 now
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    DougSeal said:

    Yes.

    I think.

    SKS fan says yes

    A bit like the man from Dore Monte
    How many posts have you submitted within the last, say, 6 months that have NOT been about Sir Keir?

    Yours,

    A Fan
    112
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,971
    Dialup said:

    So, the story is: person chairing inquiry into whether Johnson lied to parliament about Partygate spoke to person who conducted inquiry into Partygate, yes?

    I'm not convinced that's a smoking gun.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1656757587826601993

    If it's good enough for David Herdson it's good enough for me. A PB Tory legend.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,471

    I feel much more confident about predicting the economic situation than the politics. The Financial situation is looking very clear to me right now. And if Starmer is seeing what I’m seeing, he ain’t going to like it.

    I very much get the idea UK -

    1 stopped printing money too late,
    2 started rate rises to combat inflation too late,
    3 was left more exposed to expensive energy imports than similar countries to ours,
    4 this biggest tax take ever is pushing up inflation,
    5 UKs famous issue with sluggish productivity is pushing up inflation

    (when she’s home working I can hear dear GF micro managing her staff all day long - is UK rubbish because we are the micro management capital of the world?)

    Certainly all the wage deals - clearly needed when food inflation is 20% for so long! - not just public sector but private sector, is helping to maintain high inflation this year, and if inflation only halves to 5% that’s a nightmare scenario for government restoring incomes.

    But when you stop printing money and magicking up electronic money in qualitative easing, how long does the impact of what went on before last for, months, years, through a decade? Has the BOE even stopped magicking money - when Bank of England helps out government by buying government bonds, such as to save pensions industry, is this fuelling inflation?

    I’ve got a bad feeling about the UK finances and economy, and household income, not just for this year and 2024, but several years after that too. If there is a change of government, these sort of problems won’t just stop or go away based on that. In fact with swingback to the Tories leaving it increasingly like neither Tories or Lab + Lib getting working majority, that could lower our credit rating increasing our debt payments making our government poorer, whoever forms it - that’s exactly what happened to Frances rating, downgraded on basis protests against macron making it look like weak government.

    IMS are gloomy on world growth for the whole of the next 4 years. With BOE now gloomy on halving double digit inflation this year, IMO brits are going to stay struggling for years, and the longevity of this hurts more all the time with nest eggs getting spent and more and more borrowing all just to survive, add in the high grocery prices add in high mortgage rates and rise in repossessions, add in ongoing disruption between worker/union employer/government over incomes and wages, the darker days of this credit squeeze are actually ahead of us, the worst of it will probably come the other side of the next general election.

    High government debt, sluggish productivity, taxed to the hilt - its at least another three or four years of crisis, struggle and pain isn’t it?

    Please pick me up on anything and crorrect me where wrong.

    Seems a fair assessment
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    DougSeal said:

    Yes.

    I think.

    SKS fan says yes

    A bit like the man from Dore Monte
    How many posts have you submitted within the last, say, 6 months that have NOT been about Sir Keir?

    Yours,

    A Fan
    112
    Sorry including that one its 113 and this correction makes it 114!

    Please feel free to check
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,737
    edited May 2023

    I feel much more confident about predicting the economic situation than the politics. The Financial situation is looking very clear to me right now. And if Starmer is seeing what I’m seeing, he ain’t going to like it.

    I very much get the idea UK -

    1 stopped printing money too late,
    2 started rate rises to combat inflation too late,
    3 was left more exposed to expensive energy imports than similar countries to ours,
    4 this biggest tax take ever is pushing up inflation,
    5 UKs famous issue with sluggish productivity is pushing up inflation

    (when she’s home working I can hear dear GF micro managing her staff all day long - is UK rubbish because we are the micro management capital of the world?)

    Certainly all the wage deals - clearly needed when food inflation is 20% for so long! - not just public sector but private sector, is helping to maintain high inflation this year, and if inflation only halves to 5% that’s a nightmare scenario for government restoring incomes.

    But when you stop printing money and magicking up electronic money in qualitative easing, how long does the impact of what went on before last for, months, years, through a decade? Has the BOE even stopped magicking money - when Bank of England helps out government by buying government bonds, such as to save pensions industry, is this fuelling inflation?

    I’ve got a bad feeling about the UK finances and economy, and household income, not just for this year and 2024, but several years after that too. If there is a change of government, these sort of problems won’t just stop or go away based on that. In fact with swingback to the Tories leaving it increasingly like neither Tories or Lab + Lib getting working majority, that could lower our credit rating increasing our debt payments making our government poorer, whoever forms it - that’s exactly what happened to Frances rating, downgraded on basis protests against macron making it look like weak government.

    IMS are gloomy on world growth for the whole of the next 4 years. With BOE now gloomy on halving double digit inflation this year, IMO brits are going to stay struggling for years, and the longevity of this hurts more all the time with nest eggs getting spent and more and more borrowing all just to survive, add in the high grocery prices add in high mortgage rates and rise in repossessions, add in ongoing disruption between worker/union employer/government over incomes and wages, the darker days of this credit squeeze are actually ahead of us, the worst of it will probably come the other side of the next general election.

    High government debt, sluggish productivity, taxed to the hilt - its at least another three or four years of crisis, struggle and pain isn’t it?

    Please pick me up on anything and crorrect me where wrong.

    Yes. you are right, though a bit on the cheerful side as the bit about 'three or four years' is wildly optimistic.

    Those who can only be happy when they and the country are getting richer have had a decade or so to rethink this. Further opportunities await.

  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,971

    I feel much more confident about predicting the economic situation than the politics. The Financial situation is looking very clear to me right now. And if Starmer is seeing what I’m seeing, he ain’t going to like it.

    I very much get the idea UK -

    1 stopped printing money too late,
    2 started rate rises to combat inflation too late,
    3 was left more exposed to expensive energy imports than similar countries to ours,
    4 this biggest tax take ever is pushing up inflation,
    5 UKs famous issue with sluggish productivity is pushing up inflation

    (when she’s home working I can hear dear GF micro managing her staff all day long - is UK rubbish because we are the micro management capital of the world?)

    Certainly all the wage deals - clearly needed when food inflation is 20% for so long! - not just public sector but private sector, is helping to maintain high inflation this year, and if inflation only halves to 5% that’s a nightmare scenario for government restoring incomes.

    But when you stop printing money and magicking up electronic money in qualitative easing, how long does the impact of what went on before last for, months, years, through a decade? Has the BOE even stopped magicking money - when Bank of England helps out government by buying government bonds, such as to save pensions industry, is this fuelling inflation?

    I’ve got a bad feeling about the UK finances and economy, and household income, not just for this year and 2024, but several years after that too. If there is a change of government, these sort of problems won’t just stop or go away based on that. In fact with swingback to the Tories leaving it increasingly like neither Tories or Lab + Lib getting working majority, that could lower our credit rating increasing our debt payments making our government poorer, whoever forms it - that’s exactly what happened to Frances rating, downgraded on basis protests against macron making it look like weak government.

    IMS are gloomy on world growth for the whole of the next 4 years. With BOE now gloomy on halving double digit inflation this year, IMO brits are going to stay struggling for years, and the longevity of this hurts more all the time with nest eggs getting spent and more and more borrowing all just to survive, add in the high grocery prices add in high mortgage rates and rise in repossessions, add in ongoing disruption between worker/union employer/government over incomes and wages, the darker days of this credit squeeze are actually ahead of us, the worst of it will probably come the other side of the next general election.

    High government debt, sluggish productivity, taxed to the hilt - its at least another three or four years of crisis, struggle and pain isn’t it?

    Please pick me up on anything and crorrect me where wrong.

    What's it got to do with Starmer?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,737
    edit
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    I'll vote Labour if they pledge to pass a law to stop 2-minute long announcements by "comedy" train guards who abuse a captive audience.
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,169
    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,137

    I'll vote Labour if they pledge to pass a law to stop 2-minute long announcements by "comedy" train guards who abuse a captive audience.

    Only 2 minutes - you were never on a train with Dave the buffet steward. He would spend 10 minutes after every stop providing complete details of what stock was still available.

    Although he was on (a small) commission I suspect he was making as much as the train driver was.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,737
    There are problems here.
    1) That is not a pothole in a road. It's in the grass.

    2) Very likely he is standing in the living room or conservatory of a fox or badger

    3) Or he may in fact be a hobbit, or standing on one.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561

    I'll vote Labour if they pledge to pass a law to stop 2-minute long announcements by "comedy" train guards who abuse a captive audience.

    Show me where the train guard touched you
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,530
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,837
    Yes, Labour are going to win a majority.
    I don't really want that to happen, but that is what will happen barring unforeseen etc etc
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited May 2023

    There’s been nothing to suggest the Tories can improve their position. Interest rate rises will bite hard despite inflation slowing. The whole debacle today with the typical ERGers shows how fecked the Tories are

    I mean all today has really proved once again is how impotent the ERG are at the moment. As the saw with the Windor deal and now we see again the the repeal bill, the ERG'ers can howl as the moon as much as they like but there's literally nothing they can do.

    The fact Rishi's government is upsetting the ERG'ers and they are impotent to do anything about it, should be a plus for the government to be honest.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,137
    Dialup said:

    I'll vote Labour if they pledge to pass a law to stop 2-minute long announcements by "comedy" train guards who abuse a captive audience.

    Show me where the train guard touched you
    In his wallet given current train prices...
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,737
    eek said:

    I'll vote Labour if they pledge to pass a law to stop 2-minute long announcements by "comedy" train guards who abuse a captive audience.

    Only 2 minutes - you were never on a train with Dave the buffet steward. He would spend 10 minutes after every stop providing complete details of what stock was still available.

    Although he was on (a small) commission I suspect he was making as much as the train driver was.
    Neither do I need to know every 30 seconds which tube station I am approaching. I live 300 miles from London and just hit this nuisance occasionally. But is this why everyone on the tube seems to have had their souls sucked out with a straw while elves have put expensive trainers on their undead feet?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Yeah, I'd say winning about half the seats back that they lost in 2015 - so 20-30 seats - is a realistic target for Labour.

    The thing about FPTP is what it gives and just as easily take away...
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,137
    algarkirk said:


    eek said:

    I'll vote Labour if they pledge to pass a law to stop 2-minute long announcements by "comedy" train guards who abuse a captive audience.

    Only 2 minutes - you were never on a train with Dave the buffet steward. He would spend 10 minutes after every stop providing complete details of what stock was still available.

    Although he was on (a small) commission I suspect he was making as much as the train driver was.
    Neither do I need to know every 30 seconds which tube station I am approaching. I live 300 miles from London and just hit this nuisance occasionally. But is this why everyone on the tube seems to have had their souls sucked out with a straw while elves have put expensive trainers on their undead feet?
    In Paris they announce every station (often in multiple languages) alongside seemingly random messages about either pick pockets or not leaving your baggage on the train.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    The Tories can pull it back.

    But so far they seem to have learned nothing. Exhibit A: Rishi Sunak attacking Rachel Reeves about economic credibility when his party trashed the economy just months ago?

    His line seemed to be that 13 years ago Labour was bad, what?
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Business Secretary @KemiBadenoch tells TalkTV she doesn’t like being the favourite to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, and may not run in any future leadership race.

    Watch the full interview with @tnewtondunn from 10pm on First Edition.

    https://twitter.com/TalkTV/status/1656762350685356033

    Convenient.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 470
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    I addressed it upthread, why would you think that Labour can get a majority in the UK without getting a majority in England. I can't see a scenario where this Labour Party get an decent but still relatively small recovery in England but at the same time sweep all before them in Scotland.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,837
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    Some people say the EURef was Cameron's biggest mistake, but I've long thought his response to the IndyRef win was. It was subtler, but entirely unforced.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,636
    DougSeal said:

    Some English teams know how to beat AZ Alkmaar of course

    2-1 to West Ham :sunglasses:
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    edited May 2023
    Roger said:

    I feel much more confident about predicting the economic situation than the politics. The Financial situation is looking very clear to me right now. And if Starmer is seeing what I’m seeing, he ain’t going to like it.

    I very much get the idea UK -

    1 stopped printing money too late,
    2 started rate rises to combat inflation too late,
    3 was left more exposed to expensive energy imports than similar countries to ours,
    4 this biggest tax take ever is pushing up inflation,
    5 UKs famous issue with sluggish productivity is pushing up inflation

    (when she’s home working I can hear dear GF micro managing her staff all day long - is UK rubbish because we are the micro management capital of the world?)

    Certainly all the wage deals - clearly needed when food inflation is 20% for so long! - not just public sector but private sector, is helping to maintain high inflation this year, and if inflation only halves to 5% that’s a nightmare scenario for government restoring incomes.

    But when you stop printing money and magicking up electronic money in qualitative easing, how long does the impact of what went on before last for, months, years, through a decade? Has the BOE even stopped magicking money - when Bank of England helps out government by buying government bonds, such as to save pensions industry, is this fuelling inflation?

    I’ve got a bad feeling about the UK finances and economy, and household income, not just for this year and 2024, but several years after that too. If there is a change of government, these sort of problems won’t just stop or go away based on that. In fact with swingback to the Tories leaving it increasingly like neither Tories or Lab + Lib getting working majority, that could lower our credit rating increasing our debt payments making our government poorer, whoever forms it - that’s exactly what happened to Frances rating, downgraded on basis protests against macron making it look like weak government.

    IMS are gloomy on world growth for the whole of the next 4 years. With BOE now gloomy on halving double digit inflation this year, IMO brits are going to stay struggling for years, and the longevity of this hurts more all the time with nest eggs getting spent and more and more borrowing all just to survive, add in the high grocery prices add in high mortgage rates and rise in repossessions, add in ongoing disruption between worker/union employer/government over incomes and wages, the darker days of this credit squeeze are actually ahead of us, the worst of it will probably come the other side of the next general election.

    High government debt, sluggish productivity, taxed to the hilt - its at least another three or four years of crisis, struggle and pain isn’t it?

    Please pick me up on anything and crorrect me where wrong.

    What's it got to do with Starmer?
    You sure you need me to hold your hand through the answer to your question?

    The topic, which I’m very much on, is “Starmer looks set to become Primeminister”

    On his first day in his first proper job since his personalise statutory instrument kicked in, he finds a note from Rishi Sunak

    This time there right properly ain’t no money left. Enjoy!

    PS me and all other non doms now naturalised in another country, so you ain’t getting a penny off us


    So five years later, after five years of pain for household incomes, Conservative Party Leader Braverman asks the voters - anyone feel better off than they were five years ago?
    The resounding answer from everyone is no.

    If Braverman is unelectable in 2029, then Donald Trump is more than unelectable in 2016.

    Meanwhile, to cheer you up, Rog, PBs emerging psephological talent has a smiley



    On the graph, Labour are now smiling - whilst the Tory bust size just gets bigger and bigger

    Manipulation of Mammaries in Variational Electoral Forecasting (c) MoonRabbit Psephology Unit, c/o Jade, London SW3
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,471
    edited May 2023
    GIN1138 said:

    There’s been nothing to suggest the Tories can improve their position. Interest rate rises will bite hard despite inflation slowing. The whole debacle today with the typical ERGers shows how fecked the Tories are

    I mean all today has really proved once again is how impotent the ERG are at the moment. As the saw with the Windor deal and now we see again the the repeal bill, the ERG'ers can howl as the moon as much as they link but there's literally nothing they can do.

    The fact Rishi's government is upsetting the ERG'ers and they are impotent to do anything about it, should be a plus for the government to be honest.
    Not just upsetting them but taking them on

    I am convinced Sunak and Hunt are seeking a closer relationship with the EU, as already demonstrated with the WF, and the forthcoming state visit of Charles to France. Furthermore he has an excellent working relationship with UVDL and is seeking to agree with the EU for Brits to use e gates

    The ERG and hard Brexiteers are angry as they see their hopes flounder on reality, and no doubt a Starmer government would continue the new entente cordial that was impossible under Johnson and Truss

  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173
    Dialup said:

    The Tories can pull it back.

    But so far they seem to have learned nothing. Exhibit A: Rishi Sunak attacking Rachel Reeves about economic credibility when his party trashed the economy just months ago?

    His line seemed to be that 13 years ago Labour was bad, what?

    It works for the old farts who vote Tory. I was lectured about the sins of the Wilson and Callaghan governments in the runup to the Blair victory, and that was, what, almost 24 years before?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    Dialup said:

    Business Secretary @KemiBadenoch tells TalkTV she doesn’t like being the favourite to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, and may not run in any future leadership race.

    Watch the full interview with @tnewtondunn from 10pm on First Edition.

    https://twitter.com/TalkTV/status/1656762350685356033

    Convenient.

    LOL! She'll run.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    https://labourlist.org/2023/05/labour-manifesto-2024-election-what-policies-npf-party/

    Labour has outlined the start of what may become policies.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,971

    It doesn’t matter how great and knowledgeable a leading commentator like John Rentoul is, when it comes to Tory Swingback versus impact of LLG to vote tactically for MPs, Rentoul can’t know. I don’t even know. No one can know. Not now. And probably not even confident of prediction until within two weeks of polling date.

    That's disappointing. If PB's greatest psephologist can't make an educated guess Mike might as well close down and reopen two weeks into the campaign
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173
    DM_Andy said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    I addressed it upthread, why would you think that Labour can get a majority in the UK without getting a majority in England. I can't see a scenario where this Labour Party get an decent but still relatively small recovery in England but at the same time sweep all before them in Scotland.
    Mm, I missed that. But remember Scotland and England are different politically. Some posters are basuically claiming reversion to the mean of the last 50 years, where the Tory position is far weaker in Scotland than in rUK.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    Roger said:

    It doesn’t matter how great and knowledgeable a leading commentator like John Rentoul is, when it comes to Tory Swingback versus impact of LLG to vote tactically for MPs, Rentoul can’t know. I don’t even know. No one can know. Not now. And probably not even confident of prediction until within two weeks of polling date.

    That's disappointing. If PB's greatest psephologist can't make an educated guess Mike might as well close down and reopen two weeks into the campaign
    Joking apart, there is a lot of truth in that.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    It’s not on the road, so doesn’t count!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,951
    eek said:

    algarkirk said:


    eek said:

    I'll vote Labour if they pledge to pass a law to stop 2-minute long announcements by "comedy" train guards who abuse a captive audience.

    Only 2 minutes - you were never on a train with Dave the buffet steward. He would spend 10 minutes after every stop providing complete details of what stock was still available.

    Although he was on (a small) commission I suspect he was making as much as the train driver was.
    Neither do I need to know every 30 seconds which tube station I am approaching. I live 300 miles from London and just hit this nuisance occasionally. But is this why everyone on the tube seems to have had their souls sucked out with a straw while elves have put expensive trainers on their undead feet?
    In Paris they announce every station (often in multiple languages) alongside seemingly random messages about either pick pockets or not leaving your baggage on the train.
    'Mind the Gap' is surely one of the UK's more successful cultural exports.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_the_gap
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Some highlights

    Back a points-based immigration system

    Have no return to freedom of movement
    Sort out the points-based immigration system so that it ensures the economy has the skills it needs and that prolonged vacancies do not hold back growth in key sectors…

    Put 13,000 more neighbourhood police officers and PCSOs back on Britain’s streets – paid for with the clear and tangible savings that can be delivered from a shared procurement and efficiencies plan for all police forces

    Bring our railways into public ownership as contracts with existing operators expire, consistent with our fiscal rules, putting passengers at the heart of our railways and investing in a world–class network

    Deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail and High Speed 2 in full…Deliver a long–term strategy for rail…give communities a greater say in local rail services

    Reform our broken bus system…Give communities the ability to take on powers to franchise local bus services… lift the ban on municipal bus ownership

    Abolish the House of Lords…establish a second chamber that is smaller, offers the taxpayer better value for money, and is reflective of the regions and nations with elected representatives rather than political appointees

    Introduce votes for 16– and 17–year–olds

    Reform planning and arcane land purchase rules to get Britain building, while fixing the country’s development model

    Turbocharge gigabit broadband and develop UK supply chains in 5G technology

    Nothing on planning for phone masts which is disappointing. Need more flesh on the bones for how we get proper 5G coverage on all railway lines, using things like Network Rail's Brighton Mainline pilot as inspiration would be a good idea. Planning changes to allow building of masts next to railways without rejection. Minimum coverage levels via SRN etc
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    edited May 2023
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    Some people say the EURef was Cameron's biggest mistake, but I've long thought his response to the IndyRef win was. It was subtler, but entirely unforced.
    Biggest mistake was probably not taking a longer view of his relationship with the LibDems and the coalition. Had the coalition continued beyond 2015 a lot would be different now. Although quite possibly not all for the better, obvs.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,030
    Dialup said:

    https://labourlist.org/2023/05/labour-manifesto-2024-election-what-policies-npf-party/

    Labour has outlined the start of what may become policies.

    Good to see the abolition of leasehold in there, especially after the Conservatives appear to have dropped their pledge this week.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,245
    Blast from the last.

    Silk Road Drug Vendor Who Claimed To Commit Murders-For-Hire For Silk Road Founder Ross Ulbricht Charged With Narcotics And Money Laundering Conspiracies
    https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/silk-road-drug-vendor-who-claimed-commit-murders-hire-silk-road-founder-ross-ulbricht
    IRS-CI Special Agent in Charge Thomas M. Fattorusso said: “Ellingson’s alleged criminal actions are far more egregious than just money laundering or the large quantities of narcotics trafficked through the ‘Silk Road’ online marketplace. He also claimed to have acted as the middleman between the Silk Road founder and murderers-for-hire. Now, Ellingson will face the consequences of his actions.”…
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    kyf_100 said:

    Dialup said:

    https://labourlist.org/2023/05/labour-manifesto-2024-election-what-policies-npf-party/

    Labour has outlined the start of what may become policies.

    Good to see the abolition of leasehold in there, especially after the Conservatives appear to have dropped their pledge this week.
    I want it backdated. I am in a leasehold and they are scam artists.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited May 2023

    GIN1138 said:

    There’s been nothing to suggest the Tories can improve their position. Interest rate rises will bite hard despite inflation slowing. The whole debacle today with the typical ERGers shows how fecked the Tories are

    I mean all today has really proved once again is how impotent the ERG are at the moment. As the saw with the Windor deal and now we see again the the repeal bill, the ERG'ers can howl as the moon as much as they link but there's literally nothing they can do.

    The fact Rishi's government is upsetting the ERG'ers and they are impotent to do anything about it, should be a plus for the government to be honest.
    Not just upsetting them but taking them on

    I am convinced Sunak and Hunt are seeking a closer relationship with the EU, as already demonstrated with the WF, and the forthcoming state visit of Charles to France. Furthermore he has an excellent working relationship with UVDL and is seeking to agree with the EU for Brits to use e gates

    The ERG and hard Brexiteers are angry as they see their hopes flounder on reality, and no doubt a Starmer government would continue the new entente cordial that was impossible under Johnson and Truss

    If we can eventually find our way back to the single market (but outside the political structures) I'd be happy. That's where we should have been all the way along to reflect the 52/48 result.

    The trouble was from the moment Cameron quit everything just went from bad to worse and everyone's opinions got more and more entrenched.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Nothing very controversial in there, looks like bog standard 21st Century Labour to me. Nothing to frighten the horses.

    But let's get phone masts built Keir, come on!
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,169
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    -The Tories scrapped EVEL
    -Labour are against EVEL, and had MPs like John Reid in cabinet positions which were devolved in Scotland. I don't think Starmer gives a shit about the Daily Mail going nuts if he instructs Pamela Nash and Douglas Alexander to go through the 'Aye lobby' to get his NHS reforms through. Nobody will care other than people who would never vote Labour in a million years.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,877
    I'm pretty chipper having considered the locals for a few days:

    1. That I think the loser narrative for the Tories marks the end of Sunak's legendarily modest honeymoon period. Early days but the Labour polling lead post LE could be edging up a notch. I don't think it presages a challenge but it does mean there will be loud grumbles.
    2. That analysis showing a 9 point Labour PNS lead is approx a 15 polling lead, so any Conservative swingback is from the polls looking broadly accurate and balanced by the wind out of Sunak's honeymoon. That is not where Is expect a GE to land, but it's a better position to start from.
    3. Scotland does look to be a significant opening above the 10 seats I thought was a stretch possibility a few months ago. And the possible lower swing that Labour need to take power as a result
    4. The Tories remain as ragged as 1997.
    5. The promise of the LDs doing pretty well, maybe 25-30. With Labour much closer to the line because of Scotland that gives a stable range of options. (Ironically, an inverse 2015 result might not suit Labour in the same way it didn't really suit Cameron).

  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    -The Tories scrapped EVEL
    -Labour are against EVEL, and had MPs like John Reid in cabinet positions which were devolved in Scotland. I don't think Starmer gives a shit about the Daily Mail going nuts if he instructs Pamela Nash and Douglas Alexander to go through the 'Aye lobby' to get his NHS reforms through. Nobody will care other than people who would never vote Labour in a million years.
    The Tories never did implement or scrap EVEL properly. And they scrapped it precisely to create a bear trap for Labour.

    It's all abour perception. Things have changed forever. The Tories have nothing to lose. Labour have everything to lose.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,090
    Have we done the imminent publication of the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry? Will we get a thread?

    BIGGER THAN CHILCOT. 9 years and £13 million in the making. I'd have rather had the Cyclefree/DavidL dream team.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    Some people say the EURef was Cameron's biggest mistake, but I've long thought his response to the IndyRef win was. It was subtler, but entirely unforced.
    Indeed, it permanently highlighted the impossible dual role of Westminster as a UK and English parliament. That can't be covered up any more, especially after the tuition fees vote.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    Why don't we do election wins instead?

    1983: LOSS
    1987: LOSS
    1992: LOSS
    1997: BLAIR
    2001: BLAIR
    2005: BLAIR
    2010: LOSS
    2015: LOSS
    2017: LOSS
    2019: LOSS
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,196
    Eabhal said:

    Have we done the imminent publication of the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry? Will we get a thread?

    BIGGER THAN CHILCOT. 9 years and £13 million in the making. I'd have rather had the Cyclefree/DavidL dream team.

    Wiki says £776 million
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,395

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    That does rather well demonstrate quite how unpopular Corbyn must have been at the same time
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,169
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    -The Tories scrapped EVEL
    -Labour are against EVEL, and had MPs like John Reid in cabinet positions which were devolved in Scotland. I don't think Starmer gives a shit about the Daily Mail going nuts if he instructs Pamela Nash and Douglas Alexander to go through the 'Aye lobby' to get his NHS reforms through. Nobody will care other than people who would never vote Labour in a million years.
    The Tories never did implement or scrap EVEL properly. And they scrapped it precisely to create a bear trap for Labour.

    It's all abour perception. Things have changed forever. The Tories have nothing to lose. Labour have everything to lose.
    If you think Starmer would lose a close run vote in parliament to get a key piece of legislation because he instructed SLAB MPs to abstain I have a bridge to sell to you.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,971

    GIN1138 said:

    There’s been nothing to suggest the Tories can improve their position. Interest rate rises will bite hard despite inflation slowing. The whole debacle today with the typical ERGers shows how fecked the Tories are

    I mean all today has really proved once again is how impotent the ERG are at the moment. As the saw with the Windor deal and now we see again the the repeal bill, the ERG'ers can howl as the moon as much as they link but there's literally nothing they can do.

    The fact Rishi's government is upsetting the ERG'ers and they are impotent to do anything about it, should be a plus for the government to be honest.
    Not just upsetting them but taking them on

    I am convinced Sunak and Hunt are seeking a closer relationship with the EU, as already demonstrated with the WF, and the forthcoming state visit of Charles to France. Furthermore he has an excellent working relationship with UVDL and is seeking to agree with the EU for Brits to use e gates

    The ERG and hard Brexiteers are angry as they see their hopes flounder on reality, and no doubt a Starmer government would continue the new entente cordial that was impossible under Johnson and Truss

    I think you miss the point that was made on the Ch4 piece. Sunak is one of the Brexiteer Young Turks. Every bit as committed to the project as the ERG. That's why he's screwed.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,090
    edited May 2023
    geoffw said:

    Eabhal said:

    Have we done the imminent publication of the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry? Will we get a thread?

    BIGGER THAN CHILCOT. 9 years and £13 million in the making. I'd have rather had the Cyclefree/DavidL dream team.

    Wiki says £776 million
    That's the tram itself. £13 million/9 years for the inquiry. That's longer, and more cost, than the Chilcot Inquiry.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Dialup said:

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    Why don't we do election wins instead?

    1983: LOSS
    1987: LOSS
    1992: LOSS
    1997: BLAIR
    2001: BLAIR
    2005: BLAIR
    2010: LOSS
    2015: LOSS
    2017: LOSS
    2019: LOSS
    You are Peter Mandleson and I claim my prize sponsored by Jeffrey Epstein
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    Dialup said:

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    Why don't we do election wins instead?

    1983: LOSS
    1987: LOSS
    1992: LOSS
    1997: BLAIR
    2001: BLAIR
    2005: BLAIR
    2010: LOSS
    2015: LOSS
    2017: LOSS
    2019: LOSS
    Labour hasn't won a general election without Tony Blair leading it for nearly 50 years! :open_mouth:
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,945
    Evening all :)

    With the exception of the Redfield & Wilton poll which now does look to be a bit of an outlier (shame), the week's polls show a solid Labour lead moving back to the high teens.

    Swings in England of 14-15% are going to reduce the Conservative Parliamentary party by half if not more with tactical voting so it seems the next movements are to be "swingback" and the Don't Knows returning to the fold.

    If you think about it, the amount of swing back between May and December 2019 was extraordinary but possibly atypical. There comes a point in any Government or time in Government when kicking them in the ballots locally just doesn't do it and a Parliamentary ballot-kicking is the last act of the drama and the first step on the road to renewal.

    The seats coming up next year were last fought in 2021 as part of a much bigger set of local contests but in comparison 2021 had 4,737 seats contested and last Thursday had 8.057. In 2016, 2,769 seats were contested and it will be these which will be fought next year.

    In 2021, the Conservatives got 36%, Labour 29% and the LDs 17%. Last week, it was 35-26 to Labour so that's an 8% swing - a repeat of that would see another round of Conservative losses less than six months from a possible October poll.

    The question than becomes whether Sunak and Hunt will seek to buy votes with a possibly unaffordable tax cut as a last throw of the dice. Even that may not have the resonance it once did - it may simply be after 14 years the Conservatives will have run out of road.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited May 2023

    Dialup said:

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    Why don't we do election wins instead?

    1983: LOSS
    1987: LOSS
    1992: LOSS
    1997: BLAIR
    2001: BLAIR
    2005: BLAIR
    2010: LOSS
    2015: LOSS
    2017: LOSS
    2019: LOSS
    You are Peter Mandleson and I claim my prize sponsored by Jeffrey Epstein
    He's right though. It's no good having 9M or 11M votes if the other side has even more...
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    That does rather well demonstrate quite how unpopular Corbyn must have been at the same time
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,837
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    -The Tories scrapped EVEL
    -Labour are against EVEL, and had MPs like John Reid in cabinet positions which were devolved in Scotland. I don't think Starmer gives a shit about the Daily Mail going nuts if he instructs Pamela Nash and Douglas Alexander to go through the 'Aye lobby' to get his NHS reforms through. Nobody will care other than people who would never vote Labour in a million years.
    The Tories never did implement or scrap EVEL properly. And they scrapped it precisely to create a bear trap for Labour.

    It's all abour perception. Things have changed forever. The Tories have nothing to lose. Labour have everything to lose.
    If the Daily Mail go nuts about EVEL, what ideas will it instil in the minds of the right-wing readership about the union.
    They would be smart to haud weesht about it, but it'll be like Tourette's syndrome*, they'll just keep blurting it out and unwittingly minding the English voters that the Union is kinda sorta broken.

    *Teuchtettes syndrome if you'll forgive the ugly pun
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    -The Tories scrapped EVEL
    -Labour are against EVEL, and had MPs like John Reid in cabinet positions which were devolved in Scotland. I don't think Starmer gives a shit about the Daily Mail going nuts if he instructs Pamela Nash and Douglas Alexander to go through the 'Aye lobby' to get his NHS reforms through. Nobody will care other than people who would never vote Labour in a million years.
    The Tories never did implement or scrap EVEL properly. And they scrapped it precisely to create a bear trap for Labour.

    It's all abour perception. Things have changed forever. The Tories have nothing to lose. Labour have everything to lose.
    If you think Starmer would lose a close run vote in parliament to get a key piece of legislation because he instructed SLAB MPs to abstain I have a bridge to sell to you.
    And if you think that the Tories would never let him forget it, on the grounds of the illegitimacy of the vote in their perception, you are far too naive to be allowed out on your own on a political betting website.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,471
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    There’s been nothing to suggest the Tories can improve their position. Interest rate rises will bite hard despite inflation slowing. The whole debacle today with the typical ERGers shows how fecked the Tories are

    I mean all today has really proved once again is how impotent the ERG are at the moment. As the saw with the Windor deal and now we see again the the repeal bill, the ERG'ers can howl as the moon as much as they link but there's literally nothing they can do.

    The fact Rishi's government is upsetting the ERG'ers and they are impotent to do anything about it, should be a plus for the government to be honest.
    Not just upsetting them but taking them on

    I am convinced Sunak and Hunt are seeking a closer relationship with the EU, as already demonstrated with the WF, and the forthcoming state visit of Charles to France. Furthermore he has an excellent working relationship with UVDL and is seeking to agree with the EU for Brits to use e gates

    The ERG and hard Brexiteers are angry as they see their hopes flounder on reality, and no doubt a Starmer government would continue the new entente cordial that was impossible under Johnson and Truss

    I think you miss the point that was made on the Ch4 piece. Sunak is one of the Brexiteer Young Turks. Every bit as committed to the project as the ERG. That's why he's screwed.
    I do not agree

    Sunak and Hunt are pragmatists and are making moves towards the EU as explained and Sunak is in a stronger position than many think as the ERG are much diminished and the party needs to move on from Johnson and Truss
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,169

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    That does rather well demonstrate quite how unpopular Corbyn must have been at the same time
    This is like claiming Trump was more successful than Obama because he got more votes in 2020 than Obama ever did.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689

    Dialup said:

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    Why don't we do election wins instead?

    1983: LOSS
    1987: LOSS
    1992: LOSS
    1997: BLAIR
    2001: BLAIR
    2005: BLAIR
    2010: LOSS
    2015: LOSS
    2017: LOSS
    2019: LOSS
    You are Peter Mandleson and I claim my prize sponsored by Jeffrey Epstein
    You could take her for a pizza.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    The truth that only SKS seems to understand and not the feckless idiots BJO is friends with, is that for Labour to WIN elections, it must be taking the country as it IS, not as it would wish it to be.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    That does rather well demonstrate quite how unpopular Corbyn must have been at the same time
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
    Labour lost that election by over 60 seats ROFL. If Corbyn was so popular why did he lose?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,636
    Eabhal said:

    Have we done the imminent publication of the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry? Will we get a thread?

    BIGGER THAN CHILCOT. 9 years and £13 million in the making. I'd have rather had the Cyclefree/DavidL dream team.

    Newhaven extension... must... have... Newhaven extension...
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    -The Tories scrapped EVEL
    -Labour are against EVEL, and had MPs like John Reid in cabinet positions which were devolved in Scotland. I don't think Starmer gives a shit about the Daily Mail going nuts if he instructs Pamela Nash and Douglas Alexander to go through the 'Aye lobby' to get his NHS reforms through. Nobody will care other than people who would never vote Labour in a million years.
    The Tories never did implement or scrap EVEL properly. And they scrapped it precisely to create a bear trap for Labour.

    It's all abour perception. Things have changed forever. The Tories have nothing to lose. Labour have everything to lose.
    If the Daily Mail go nuts about EVEL, what ideas will it instil in the minds of the right-wing readership about the union.
    They would be smart to haud weesht about it, but it'll be like Tourette's syndrome*, they'll just keep blurting it out and unwittingly minding the English voters that the Union is kinda sorta broken.

    *Teuchtettes syndrome if you'll forgive the ugly pun
    Remember the cartoon the DM published after the first major SNP electoral victory. Not exactly subtle about the implicit perception of the legitimacy of MPs for Scottish constituencies.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/35txq0/heres_a_hilarious_and_not_in_any_way_offensive/
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173

    Eabhal said:

    Have we done the imminent publication of the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry? Will we get a thread?

    BIGGER THAN CHILCOT. 9 years and £13 million in the making. I'd have rather had the Cyclefree/DavidL dream team.

    Newhaven extension... must... have... Newhaven extension...
    Bugger the Newhaven extension, I'd like to see the A7 and A702/703 extensions before I die!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Dialup said:

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    That does rather well demonstrate quite how unpopular Corbyn must have been at the same time
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
    Labour lost that election by over 60 seats ROFL. If Corbyn was so popular why did he lose?
    https://twitter.com/chelleryn99/status/1650997009699024896/photo/1
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561

    Dialup said:

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    That does rather well demonstrate quite how unpopular Corbyn must have been at the same time
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
    Labour lost that election by over 60 seats ROFL. If Corbyn was so popular why did he lose?
    https://twitter.com/chelleryn99/status/1650997009699024896/photo/1
    Did Labour lose that election by over 60 seats or not?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited May 2023

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    That does rather well demonstrate quite how unpopular Corbyn must have been at the same time
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
    I do actually give Jezza credit for resonating with people (especially younger people) in 2017. He tapped into something rather unexpectedly and got surprisingly close to Dowing St.

    I always felt the big turning point for him was March 2018 and Sailsbury. The country was basically attacked by an outside enemy and Corbyn did what he always does... Which is find a way for us (and USA) to be in the wrong and our enemies (in this case Russia) to have a point...

    That was when the mask slipped for a lot of people IMO and a thrashing for Labour at any subsequent election become inevitable.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Dialup said:

    The truth that only SKS seems to understand and not the feckless idiots BJO is friends with, is that for Labour to WIN elections, it must be taking the country as it IS, not as it would wish it to be.

    SKSWNBPM
This discussion has been closed.