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Starmer looks set to become PM but will LAB have a majority? – politicalbetting.com

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,868
    The only interesting thing about Badenoch right now is that somehow she has become the face of this EU bill, annoying the eurosceptics that she might have needed to vote for her in the next leadership election.

    How did that happen?

    Was it an accident? Is someone trying to sink her campaign before it gets going? Is this some bizarre attempt to distance herself from her right wing credentials?


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 90,977

    DavidL said:

    0.1% growt in Q1. Was @MaxPB not telling us it was going to be 0.6? The large number of public sector strikes seem to have let the steam out.

    Let the ‘but this is bound to be revised up’ chat begin.
    Initial economic estimates are better than forecasts, but not to be trusted as gospel by any means, so they may well be.

    But it seems rather unlikely to turn magically into good numbers.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,459
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:
    She’s really rather good, especially against an idiot interviewer.

    Calm but assertive, probably one of the best politicians on either front bench.
    For an alternative view:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/11/kemi-badenoch-makes-enemies-with-narcissistic-commons-appearance
    LOL, was that written by a twelve-year-old in the junior debate society, who just discovered the f-word?

    There’s a fair point to be made about announcing policy first in the Commons, the abandonment of which appears to have been a feature of the last 25 years of British politics, but that wasn’t it, and neither to be fair was the Speaker’s over-reaction yesterday.

    Hoyle showed he was all mouth and no trousers, if he wants to clamp down on outside announcements, for which he’d have my support, he needs to actually start sanctioning ministers for it.

    Articles like this do suggest however, that Kemi Badenoch is who Labour really don’t want as LotO after the next election.
    Nothing suggests Badenoch would be more effective opposition to Labour than Sunak. At best Badenoch might have more to her than first - dire - appearances indicate.
    You mean she might surprise on the upside?
    In that interview Badenoch's saying, you may know me as a batshit ideologue, but I can do the technocratic delivery thing too. That could count as an upside, while others might see her as disingenuous.
    F***ing Useless is what you are looking for, another Tory no use dud.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,756
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,778
    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    What a golden opportunity we missed in Dresden after the war. Vogue could have stocked up on images for another 20 years.
    I can kinda see the aesthetic sense. The exquisite models and clothes juxtaposed with the devastation and smoking ruins. But still. They did the ruins

    Eeeesh
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 90,977

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:
    She’s really rather good, especially against an idiot interviewer.

    Calm but assertive, probably one of the best politicians on either front bench.
    Yeah I'm a big fan of Kemi. I think once she's got more experience as LOTO she'll be a formidable opponent for Labour...
    Yep. She comes across well. A grown-up, not afraid to explain that some things are complicated. And not a dull technocrat. Tories could do worse.
    We need people who can explain to the public things are complicated. Problem is MPs also need that explained and many stubbornly refuse to learn that. They used to be confined to backbenches (front benches knew but might pretend to not know things were complex) but no longer.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,505
    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    I believe they have to contact you within a set period from the offence (much shorter than 2 weeks istr) so you're probably ok.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,756
    Nigelb said:

    I do hope Morgan gets his comeuppance.
    There will be much more such evidence, no doubt.

    Piers Morgan authorised illegal blagging of prince’s bank details, court told
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/may/11/piers-morgan-authorised-blagging-of-prince-michael-bank-details-court-told
    ...When the prince’s lawyers complained to Morgan that the story was inaccurate and the records must have been obtained illegally, Morgan dismissed their “poor and thinly disguised threat” and insisted the information had come from an “impeccable source”.

    In reality, the Mirror obtained the information after employing private investigators to pose as the prince’s accountant, phone the bank and illegally “blag” his account details, the court heard...

    He is a scum bag. I will never forgive him for putting up faked pictures of British soldiers abusing Iraqis for which he has never properly apologised. He also has a what the Germans call a backpfeifengesicht
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,756
    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:
    She’s really rather good, especially against an idiot interviewer.

    Calm but assertive, probably one of the best politicians on either front bench.
    For an alternative view:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/11/kemi-badenoch-makes-enemies-with-narcissistic-commons-appearance
    LOL, was that written by a twelve-year-old in the junior debate society, who just discovered the f-word?

    There’s a fair point to be made about announcing policy first in the Commons, the abandonment of which appears to have been a feature of the last 25 years of British politics, but that wasn’t it, and neither to be fair was the Speaker’s over-reaction yesterday.

    Hoyle showed he was all mouth and no trousers, if he wants to clamp down on outside announcements, for which he’d have my support, he needs to actually start sanctioning ministers for it.

    Articles like this do suggest however, that Kemi Badenoch is who Labour really don’t want as LotO after the next election.
    Nothing suggests Badenoch would be more effective opposition to Labour than Sunak. At best Badenoch might have more to her than first - dire - appearances indicate.
    You mean she might surprise on the upside?
    In that interview Badenoch's saying, you may know me as a batshit ideologue, but I can do the technocratic delivery thing too. That could count as an upside, while others might see her as disingenuous.
    F***ing Useless is what you are looking for, another Tory no use dud.
    Lol. Another objective assessment from Brain of Britain.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,459
    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:
    She’s really rather good, especially against an idiot interviewer.

    Calm but assertive, probably one of the best politicians on either front bench.
    Yeah I'm a big fan of Kemi. I think once she's got more experience as LOTO she'll be a formidable opponent for Labour...
    GIN, have you gone GAGA, she is a dud
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    A
    algarkirk said:

    We have been here before but the Labour List publication of Labour's draft policy document is quite interesting.

    https://labourlist.org/2023/05/labour-manifesto-2024-election-what-policies-npf-party/

    As a Tory (usually) who intends to vote for them a few things stand out:

    Abolishing the Lords: Replacing this with elected people, setting up an automatic conflict between two elected bodies is not great. Also, the actually useful people in the Lords wouldn't stand for election.

    Votes for 16/17: No.

    No return to FOM: Makes EFTA/EEA impossible. Not good.

    Debt, deficit, how to fund the plans, SME: Nothing

    Generally: Hundreds of 'Seek to' 'Begin' 'Bolster' 'Strengthen' 'Push'. No meaning to any of them. And far too many policy points amounting to little.

    This needs severe editing and review.

    Changing benefits, work structure etc so that the low skilled/no skilled job market is protected from FOM is perfectly possible.

    The problem is that it would mean some Clause 4 level stuff within the Labour Party.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,459

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:
    She’s really rather good, especially against an idiot interviewer.

    Calm but assertive, probably one of the best politicians on either front bench.
    For an alternative view:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/11/kemi-badenoch-makes-enemies-with-narcissistic-commons-appearance
    LOL, was that written by a twelve-year-old in the junior debate society, who just discovered the f-word?

    There’s a fair point to be made about announcing policy first in the Commons, the abandonment of which appears to have been a feature of the last 25 years of British politics, but that wasn’t it, and neither to be fair was the Speaker’s over-reaction yesterday.

    Hoyle showed he was all mouth and no trousers, if he wants to clamp down on outside announcements, for which he’d have my support, he needs to actually start sanctioning ministers for it.

    Articles like this do suggest however, that Kemi Badenoch is who Labour really don’t want as LotO after the next election.
    Nothing suggests Badenoch would be more effective opposition to Labour than Sunak. At best Badenoch might have more to her than first - dire - appearances indicate.
    You mean she might surprise on the upside?
    In that interview Badenoch's saying, you may know me as a batshit ideologue, but I can do the technocratic delivery thing too. That could count as an upside, while others might see her as disingenuous.
    F***ing Useless is what you are looking for, another Tory no use dud.
    Lol. Another objective assessment from Brain of Britain.
    Crawl back under your rock cockroach boy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,505
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    Zoolander was a documentary not satire.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    I believe they have to contact you within a set period from the offence (much shorter than 2 weeks istr) so you're probably ok.
    No, it is 2 weeks from the offence and the letter can arrive after that as long as it was posted within 2 weeks of the event.

    It will be a NIP. You have to fill it in and respond in 4 weeks.

    Failure to furnish is an offence. S172. 6 points and your insurance renewal goes through the roof.

    It a NIP is served out of time you can simply write on it and return "served out of time"
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,664
    Dura_Ace said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464


    Edit: I see the £510 was for legal costs, not a fine #crapreporting. Why'd he bother to contest it? (And I hope he's paying the legal bill.)
    Always contest it. You'll get off about 50% of the time.

    I got pulled last week by a bored cop who was trying to get me to admit to speeding (I had been but wouldn't admit it and he had no evidence). I had one of the Ukrainians in the passenger seat as I was taking her to one of her gigs. She works for a company that provides unlicensed Disney characters for kids' parties etc. The fat cop looked at me, looked at my lowered 997 turbo on HRE split rim blades, looked at the 18 year old 'Elsa' in the passenger sear and said, "I don't know where to start with this."
    Hopefully he decided to Let it Go.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    Zoolander was a documentary not satire.
    The SNP are re-staging the water-fight-with-gasoline scene
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,778
    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,369
    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:
    She’s really rather good, especially against an idiot interviewer.

    Calm but assertive, probably one of the best politicians on either front bench.
    For an alternative view:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/11/kemi-badenoch-makes-enemies-with-narcissistic-commons-appearance
    LOL, was that written by a twelve-year-old in the junior debate society, who just discovered the f-word?

    There’s a fair point to be made about announcing policy first in the Commons, the abandonment of which appears to have been a feature of the last 25 years of British politics, but that wasn’t it, and neither to be fair was the Speaker’s over-reaction yesterday.

    Hoyle showed he was all mouth and no trousers, if he wants to clamp down on outside announcements, for which he’d have my support, he needs to actually start sanctioning ministers for it.

    Articles like this do suggest however, that Kemi Badenoch is who Labour really don’t want as LotO after the next election.
    Nothing suggests Badenoch would be more effective opposition to Labour than Sunak. At best Badenoch might have more to her than first - dire - appearances indicate.
    You mean she might surprise on the upside?
    In that interview Badenoch's saying, you may know me as a batshit ideologue, but I can do the technocratic delivery thing too. That could count as an upside, while others might see her as disingenuous.
    Well let's see her deliver something worthwhile on the Post Office instead of the feeble square root of f**k all she's done so far.

    As for the EU Bill everyone said it was a hopelessly stupid piece of legislation, including me on here, ages ago. Finally recognising that hardly makes her a political Solomon.
    Badenoch is implying the legislation has been cut in half to make it half as stupid.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,664
    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    It's OK because the government is controlling immigration now that we have taken back control.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,761
    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,083
    algarkirk said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464


    Edit: I see the £510 was for legal costs, not a fine #crapreporting. Why'd he bother to contest it? (And I hope he's paying the legal bill.)

    Standard report:

    "A court official said the Archbishop pleaded guilty and was handed three penalty points and a £300 fine. He was ordered to pay £90 in costs and a £120 victim surcharge, bringing the final legal bill to £510."

    The suggestion is that somehow he failed to cough up the standard penalty and it went to court by this oversight.

    (BTW how many PBers have not driven at 25 in a 20?)
    Yes, I'll hold my hand up there. But I'm not a sanctimonious twat lecturing others on how to live their lives on the basis of a supposed link to a supernatural identity. Not professionally, anyway.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,497
    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    Migration or immigration? If 500,000 arrived and 500,000 left that’s surely OK?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,722

    Leon said:

    Lot of controversy over this. Russian magazines are using devastated Ukrainian war zones for fashion shoots. Apocalypto-chic


    Russia really is a sick fucked up country. How will they ever recover to civilised norms?
    Clearly it can happen at a human level- see Germany after 1945.

    Whether it can happen without an unambiguous, in-your-face defeat and occupation... That's much harder.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,601
    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    I think it'd be helpful if that figure was broken down by profession & country on an official gov't webpage or something.

    E.g. 19,000 teachers from France; 20,000 doctors from the Philippines; 30,000 nurses from Thailand; 5,000 builders from Peru - obviously those won't be the figures but if the million people arriving are broken down it'd help the Gov't.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,554
    edited May 2023
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:
    She’s really rather good, especially against an idiot interviewer.

    Calm but assertive, probably one of the best politicians on either front bench.
    Yeah I'm a big fan of Kemi. I think once she's got more experience as LOTO she'll be a formidable opponent for Labour...
    GIN, have you gone GAGA, she is a dud
    Morning Malc. We'll see. I've got a pretty good record on here for spotting talent.

    Any new developments over Nicola's travails, BTW? ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,415
    On topic, I guess Paul Bettison was so angry that the Brexit Party stood down so many candidates in 2019, no?

    In the run-up to last week’s local elections Paul Bettison, the Conservative leader of Bracknell Forest council, was asked by Tory HQ to predict how the party would fare. Before polling day the party controlled 37 out of the 42 seats on the council and, despite the national political headwinds, Bettison was confident that their vote was largely holding up and would return at least 30 councillors.

    On the night, the Tories were all but wiped out, holding on to ten seats and losing control of the council to Labour, who won 22 seats. The Lib Dems picked up seven.

    As the dust settles Bettison’s disappointment has turned to anger. The Tory wipeout was not caused by a huge collapse in Conservative support — their vote share fell by only six points — but by an effective, unofficial electoral “pact” between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Instead of fielding candidates across all council seats being contested, Labour stood aside for the Lib Dems where they were in third place and the Lib Dems returned the favour.

    Mary Temperton, new Labour leader of Bracknell Forest council, insisted that the party was simply targeting candidates at wards it was likely to win. “Four years ago . . . we diluted our efforts. That did not happen this year,” she said.

    But the Conservatives have no doubt about what went on. “This wasn’t even tactical voting — because voters had no choice in the matter,” said Bettison, who lost his seat. “It’s basically undemocratic. People were cheated out of their right to vote for the candidate of their choice.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-election-tactical-vote-labour-lib-dem-coalition-2023-qbd5cw5wg
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,415
    Perhaps most worrying for Rishi Sunak is that most of the upsets did not involve Bracknell-style informal deals. The Lib Dems fought 60 per cent of council seats last week, up 7 points on 2019, while the Greens fought 41 per cent, up 10 points, with Labour unchanged on 77 per cent.

    Lord Hayward, a Conservative pollster, said such figures did not suggest widespread local pacts, arguing: “It was almost co-ordination by the voters, rather than by the parties.”
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    I think it'd be helpful if that figure was broken down by profession & country on an official gov't webpage or something.

    E.g. 19,000 teachers from France; 20,000 doctors from the Philippines; 30,000 nurses from Thailand; 5,000 builders from Peru - obviously those won't be the figures but if the million people arriving are broken down it'd help the Gov't.
    900,000 Albanian taxi drivers
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,554
    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    Presumably these lovely Russian ladies were superimposed over the image rather being flown to the front line for a fashion shoot?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,083

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    Migration or immigration? If 500,000 arrived and 500,000 left that’s surely OK?
    No, NET migration - i.e. a million more people arrive than leave.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,441
    DM_Andy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dialup said:

    GE 2024 between 2015 and 2001?

    ENGLAND VOTERS for Labour Party at General Election:

    2017: Corbyn 11.4 million
    1997: Blair 11.3 million
    1992: Kinnock 9.6 million
    2019: Corbyn 9.2 million
    2001: Blair 9.1 million
    2015: Miliband 8.1 million
    2005: Blair 8.0 million
    1987: Kinnock 8.0 million
    2010: Brown 7.0 million
    1983: Foot 6.9 million

    That does rather well demonstrate quite how unpopular Corbyn must have been at the same time
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
    Labour lost that election by over 60 seats ROFL. If Corbyn was so popular why did he lose?
    Brexit was playing with things back then. Labour got stop Brexit votes 2017 many of them probably from people who didn’t even vote in 2016.

    And many of these voters didn’t know the true Jeremy in 2017 either. What BJO doesn’t mention is telling in itself, the direction in travel from 2017. Two years later Corbyn delivered the worse Labour result for 100 years in seats, and a stinking reputation not so easily fought back from. Boris wasn’t even all that popular in 2019, voters had to hold their noses voting Boris because Corbyn and his dangerous crew around him was the alternative.
    You got wrong GE as BREXIT Election

    2019 was oven ready deal Election SKS 2nd Referendum policy deserved a drubbing
    You are being daft now. Labours 2017 vote numbers were DEFINITELY inflated by people, who’s main political issue was Brexit, thinking Corbyn was against Brexit and a Labour victory and government would stop Brexit happening.
    That's right. 2 Brexit elections. In the 1st one it boosted Corbyn. In the 2nd one the opposite, it dragged him down. True 'par' Corbyn appeal was somewhere between the 2. But what happens is his fans make out the good election was him and not Brexit, and the bad one was Brexit not him, whereas his critics come out with the reverse bullshit that the good one was Brexit not him, and the bad one was him not Brexit.

    Yours, Mr 'So Judicious It Hurts'.
    I think that's slightly harsh but not wrong. In 2017 Corbyn managed to get away with seeming Brexity to Leave voters because of his clear Bennite anti-Common Market views from the 1980s and seeming to want to Remain to Remain voters because that was the policy of the Labour Party. By 2019 it was impossible to remain on the fence and his attempts to get back onto the 2017 position just made him look untrustworthy to both sides.
    Yes, that's pretty accurate imo.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,114
    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    175k Ukrainians in one quarter
    Loads from HK
    Loads of student visas - government target is 600k students pa

    Good Sunder Katwala thread on it here

    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1656792134664568832
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,601
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,325
    edited May 2023

    FF43 said:

    JSpring said:

    I don't quite get why the results of the local elections seemingly show that Labour will have problems winning a majority. They may not win a majority, but using the local elections as an argument for that doesn't make much sense to me.

    They made big advances in the 'Red Wall' and in more traditional marginal areas. If all councils had been 'all-up' (rather than elected in thirds) then they would have won even more councils and seats and I doubt this argument would be being put forth as much.

    I'd say that, if anything, the results suggest that Labour had a pretty good chance of a comfortable working majority even if no particular advances in Scotland are made.

    My take too. The Lib Dems and Greens did extremely well at the expense of the Conservatives, while Labour only did somewhat well. The key question is how much Labour and LD/Green supporters are willing to lend their votes to the other parties. Depending on the answer, the locals could indicate no majority or a stonking majority for Labour (I think the possibility of a landslide is underestimated on here)
    That's the key. I think the local elections should scare the Tories, because it looked like tactical voting was fully back, if not greater than ever before.

    Before the elections, in discussion with HYUFD, I commented:


    I believe the big drivers of LD gains/losses will be:

    - What degree of tactical voting has come about or reduced since 2019?
    - How well/badly have incumbents done in either defending their record or boosting their personal vote?
    - How well/badly has targeting done?
    - How has local party strength (both for LDs and whoever they're fighting) increased/diminished in the areas being fought?
    - How accurate are/aren't the polls?
    - How will/badly Independents do in defending seats they won last time with widespread "sod the lot of you" mindsets?
    - How much will Voter ID affect the vote (either for or against)?

    The actual opinion polls are within MoE (damn near identical) to how they were last time around, so these variables will, I believe be the key ones.
    My best guess right now is that anywhere between -50 and +250 is likely, depending on how those factors play out on the day.

    The actual outcome was far off the top end of my range.

    Looking through that list, incumbents records were mixed (some good, some not so good), targeting was definitely good, local party strength for LDs was up and Tories was down, the polls were pretty accurate, Independents did poorly, and Voter ID didn't seem to affect the vote significantly.

    Those factors would have left the LDs at about +100 to, I'd have thought. The remaining +307 look to have been down to tactical voting (and of the other factors, local party strength also plays into the GE campaign to a degree as well). I'd therefore expect both Labour and LDs to significantly beat UNS, as it stands at the moment.

    (Obviously there could be a falling out or other reasons why tactical voting would diminish between now and the GE but none appear on the cards at the moment)
    What surprised me was how comfortable a lot of the LD wins were. I looked at about 50 that were LD gains from the Conservatives expecting them to be close, but they weren't. They looked like rock solid LD seats the margins were so great.

    Also agree re Indies. In Guildford the Indies went for it, fighting every seat. I thought they might cause the LDs to lose seats. On the contrary the Indies lost seats instead to the Tories. The Tories actually did better in Guildford than the overall result suggests because they also lost 6 seats in one enclave that everyone was expecting (5 to LDs). If it wasn't for those the result would have looked good for the Tories and they still made net gains.

    It looked similar in Torbay (would be interested in @MarqueeMark comments). Contrary to Tory spin the LDs made gains, it is just the Tories also did so to gain control at the expense of the Indies.

    In these places it was the Indies performance that really made it possible for the LDs and Tories respectively to gain control of these councils
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,921
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    Chatya GPTova
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,722

    Perhaps most worrying for Rishi Sunak is that most of the upsets did not involve Bracknell-style informal deals. The Lib Dems fought 60 per cent of council seats last week, up 7 points on 2019, while the Greens fought 41 per cent, up 10 points, with Labour unchanged on 77 per cent.

    Lord Hayward, a Conservative pollster, said such figures did not suggest widespread local pacts, arguing: “It was almost co-ordination by the voters, rather than by the parties.”

    I don't know how you test this, but I'd love to investigate the theory that the main determinant of General Election results is the degree to which non-Conservative parties can bury their differences.

    It would do a brilliant job of annoying everyone. Righties by saying that whatever they do is largely irrelevant and Lefties for saying that the long runs of Conservative government are basically their fault.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,637
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    Thank you Mr Polanski, yes it’s all about the art and sod the morality.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,921

    Dura_Ace said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464


    Edit: I see the £510 was for legal costs, not a fine #crapreporting. Why'd he bother to contest it? (And I hope he's paying the legal bill.)
    Always contest it. You'll get off about 50% of the time.

    I got pulled last week by a bored cop who was trying to get me to admit to speeding (I had been but wouldn't admit it and he had no evidence). I had one of the Ukrainians in the passenger seat as I was taking her to one of her gigs. She works for a company that provides unlicensed Disney characters for kids' parties etc. The fat cop looked at me, looked at my lowered 997 turbo on HRE split rim blades, looked at the 18 year old 'Elsa' in the passenger sear and said, "I don't know where to start with this."
    Hopefully he decided to Let it Go.
    "No rights, no wrongs, no rules for me!"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,441
    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    How accurate are the Telegraph, though, when they speculate about things?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,223

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,223

    tlg86 said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464


    Edit: I see the £510 was for legal costs, not a fine #crapreporting. Why'd he bother to contest it? (And I hope he's paying the legal bill.)

    Standard report:

    "A court official said the Archbishop pleaded guilty and was handed three penalty points and a £300 fine. He was ordered to pay £90 in costs and a £120 victim surcharge, bringing the final legal bill to £510."

    The suggestion is that somehow he failed to cough up the standard penalty and it went to court by this oversight.

    (BTW how many PBers have not driven at 25 in a 20?)
    I've probably gone at 25 a few times through carelessness but generally speaking the lower the speed limit the more assiduous I am at respecting it. In a 20mph zone I generally trundle along at around 19-22. To this date the only speeding ticket I have was for doing 56 in a 50mph spot of the A1. On 70mph roads I generally do 75-80 but it doesn't seem to bother the authorities.
    I tend to take the same approach, but I find 20s very difficult to stick to.
    Living in London I am very used to them, to the extent that I now feel a bit alarmed driving at 30 in a built up area.
    A new thing from the 20mph speed limits is quite a few people deciding they can only turn at 8-10mph for some reason. Very strange.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Perhaps most worrying for Rishi Sunak is that most of the upsets did not involve Bracknell-style informal deals. The Lib Dems fought 60 per cent of council seats last week, up 7 points on 2019, while the Greens fought 41 per cent, up 10 points, with Labour unchanged on 77 per cent.

    Lord Hayward, a Conservative pollster, said such figures did not suggest widespread local pacts, arguing: “It was almost co-ordination by the voters, rather than by the parties.”

    I don't know how you test this, but I'd love to investigate the theory that the main determinant of General Election results is the degree to which non-Conservative parties can bury their differences.

    It would do a brilliant job of annoying everyone. Righties by saying that whatever they do is largely irrelevant and Lefties for saying that the long runs of Conservative government are basically their fault.
    It oughtn't annoy the "righties". What they can do is position themselves in the centre ground instead of the far right. Nothing drives the progressives together better than extremism from the right. Ditch the extremism, and watch the left and liberals bicker over trifles.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,377

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    Presumably decided to turn up in court with a lawyer, rather than simply accepting the fixed penalty.

    In fact, if he’d accepted a fixed penalty, it wouldn’t be in the news.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,921

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,233
    Based on the results in England, which was the only home nation with local elections last week, then the likely outcome of the next general election would be a hung parliament. Labour would be largest party but short of a majority and need LD support to govern. Effectively 2010 in reverse.

    Starmer's majority hopes therefore likely rest on Wales and Scotland, if Labour increases its lead on seats in Wales and most importantly regains some seats in Scotland from the SNP then he could still get a narrow Labour majority UK wide as Wilson did in 1964 (also while failing to get a majority in England).
  • theProletheProle Posts: 924
    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    Good luck, but I doubt you'll get away with it. I had to do a "Motorway awareness course" for a 46mph in a 40 in identical circumstances on a totally empty M5. Utterly ridiculous.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,377
    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464


    Edit: I see the £510 was for legal costs, not a fine #crapreporting. Why'd he bother to contest it? (And I hope he's paying the legal bill.)

    Standard report:

    "A court official said the Archbishop pleaded guilty and was handed three penalty points and a £300 fine. He was ordered to pay £90 in costs and a £120 victim surcharge, bringing the final legal bill to £510."

    The suggestion is that somehow he failed to cough up the standard penalty and it went to court by this oversight.

    (BTW how many PBers have not driven at 25 in a 20?)
    Dura Ace? Hard to believe he ever drives as slow as 25mph anywhere :wink:
    He’s not even that slow on his bicycle!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,778
    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything

    I put a ten word prompt into the latest version of Midjourney (which is now mindblowingly good). Images so good roger - a professional - wondered who the photographer might be

    This is where we are. I could have put those on Twitter and said “omg Russia is using devastated Ukraine as location for fashion shoots” and - judging by the reaction here - 90% of people would have believed it. And why not? Unless you examine with unceasing care the images are entirely convincing. Even at the granular level you cannot be sure. It’s a guess either way


    That is where we are. Welcome to the deepfake world of Total Untruth (and also the end of photography, modelling, location scouts, vogue shoots etc)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,223
    theProle said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    Good luck, but I doubt you'll get away with it. I had to do a "Motorway awareness course" for a 46mph in a 40 in identical circumstances on a totally empty M5. Utterly ridiculous.
    Ticket should come within two weeks, and most come within the first week, so likely to get away with it based on the information available.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,778
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    How accurate are the Telegraph, though, when they speculate about things?
    The Times has a similar story. Others reckon maybe 700,000
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,586
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    I think Leon is commenting on his favourite subject.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,369

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    It's OK because the government is controlling immigration now that we have taken back control.
    Immigration is the one Brexit benefit according to the OBR analysis. Loss of investment and suppression of trade worse than it expected, but higher than expected immigration partly compensated, confirming their prediction of an overall 4% damage to the economy caused by Brexit.

    I think this means the UK will necessarily be more invested in high immigration outside of the EU than it was as a member. It no longer has the choice.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,756
    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    The UK regulations (which are set by the EU, LOL) state that the speedo can't understate the speed and must not overstate it by more than 10% + 10km/h. This is probably a relict from the days when the speedo was mechanically driven but in modern cars it's calculated in the ECU from engine speed and transmission data so it would be possible to make the speedo 100% accurate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,441
    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    Hope you escape but I'd say wait a while longer before relaxing. I got one recently that came so late it was past the date for responding to it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,083
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    It's OK because the government is controlling immigration now that we have taken back control.
    Immigration is the one Brexit benefit according to the OBR analysis. Loss of investment and suppression of trade worse than it expected, but higher than expected immigration partly compensated, confirming their prediction of an overall 4% damage to the economy caused by Brexit.

    I think this means the UK will necessarily be more invested in high immigration outside of the EU than it was as a member. It no longer has the choice.
    I may be misunderstanding this, but surely there is no point to (picking numbers out of the air) a 1% increase in GNP if we also have a 1% increase in population? The country gets richer, but those riches have to be shared more widely - so individually, we don't get any richer.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,921
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything

    I put a ten word prompt into the latest version of Midjourney (which is now mindblowingly good). Images so good roger - a professional - wondered who the photographer might be

    This is where we are. I could have put those on Twitter and said “omg Russia is using devastated Ukraine as location for fashion shoots” and - judging by the reaction here - 90% of people would have believed it. And why not? Unless you examine with unceasing care the images are entirely convincing. Even at the granular level you cannot be sure. It’s a guess either way


    That is where we are. Welcome to the deepfake world of Total Untruth (and also the end of photography, modelling, location scouts, vogue shoots etc)
    No blowing my own trumpet (not least cos I work in advertising so am used to looking critically at imagery, plus the premise seem to me to be suspiciously provocative - and then considering the source... :wink: ) but the second image in particular looked pretty obviously AI - the arm thing, clearly, but also more general vague superimpositionary uncanniness. The first one looked more real, for sure.

    Agree that it illustrates how easily people can be fooled on Socials - 'twas ever thus with words, but now images add a new dimension.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,505
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    How accurate are the Telegraph, though, when they speculate about things?
    Oddly it's the Tele and their ilk who now seem keenest to rub the Right's nose in diversity. I wonder why?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,781
    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:

    JSpring said:

    I don't quite get why the results of the local elections seemingly show that Labour will have problems winning a majority. They may not win a majority, but using the local elections as an argument for that doesn't make much sense to me.

    They made big advances in the 'Red Wall' and in more traditional marginal areas. If all councils had been 'all-up' (rather than elected in thirds) then they would have won even more councils and seats and I doubt this argument would be being put forth as much.

    I'd say that, if anything, the results suggest that Labour had a pretty good chance of a comfortable working majority even if no particular advances in Scotland are made.

    The nub of the matter is that the Conservative vote went down but the Labour vote didn't go up.

    Suggesting that Tory absententions may have been more significant than vote-switching, and that people wanted to vote against the Tories but aren't particularly rushing to vote for Labour.

    Of course, if the same happens at a GE, Labour still wins. But they would be better off with a few positives and not merely being not as desperately bad as the the current lot. Because when a GE campaign approaches there is usually a swingback to the government from the election results and polls prior (noting Mrs May's big achievement in proving that this isn't always so).
    In my view. swing back is tempered by the idea that This is Sunak's honeymoon. As an example, one can take a slice of 16 polls between Jan-Mar 91 which already showed Major over 5% ahead. He only eventually exceeded that level, with swing back, by 2.5%.

    If Sunak's personal popularity drops, swing back doesn't necessarily yet start from here.
    It'll be the economy, s....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,223
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    The speedo is designed to overreport your speed. Do you mean 5% under?

    "The regulation states that speedometers must never underreport a vehicle's speed, while it must never overreport by more than 110% of the actual speed + 6.25mph.

    So if you’re going 40mph, your speedometer may read up to 50.25mph - but it can never read less than 40mph."

    https://www.startrescue.co.uk/breakdown-cover/motoring-advice/safety-and-security/how-accurate-is-my-speedometer
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,921
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Google maps also tends to understate how long it will take to drive anywhere - though maybe that's just me!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,586
    edited May 2023
    theProle said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    Good luck, but I doubt you'll get away with it. I had to do a "Motorway awareness course" for a 46mph in a 40 in identical circumstances on a totally empty M5. Utterly ridiculous.
    It's worth keeping to the 20mph, particularly around schools. You're in deep trouble if you hit someone.

    2.5% fatality rate at 20mph. 20% at 30mph.

    At higher speeds, a big chunk of the stopping distance is your reaction, so unless you're a former fighter pilot (ahem), it would be difficult to justify boosting it to 80mph.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,601
    Students are always included (rightly) in the immigration figures, but once a student visa has expired (Their course is over) don't they tend to head back ?
    Or do most stay ?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything

    I put a ten word prompt into the latest version of Midjourney (which is now mindblowingly good). Images so good roger - a professional - wondered who the photographer might be

    This is where we are. I could have put those on Twitter and said “omg Russia is using devastated Ukraine as location for fashion shoots” and - judging by the reaction here - 90% of people would have believed it. And why not? Unless you examine with unceasing care the images are entirely convincing. Even at the granular level you cannot be sure. It’s a guess either way


    That is where we are. Welcome to the deepfake world of Total Untruth (and also the end of photography, modelling, location scouts, vogue shoots etc)
    Also, clothes designers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,778
    edited May 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything

    I put a ten word prompt into the latest version of Midjourney (which is now mindblowingly good). Images so good roger - a professional - wondered who the photographer might be

    This is where we are. I could have put those on Twitter and said “omg Russia is using devastated Ukraine as location for fashion shoots” and - judging by the reaction here - 90% of people would have believed it. And why not? Unless you examine with unceasing care the images are entirely convincing. Even at the granular level you cannot be sure. It’s a guess either way


    That is where we are. Welcome to the deepfake world of Total Untruth (and also the end of photography, modelling, location scouts, vogue shoots etc)
    No blowing my own trumpet (not least cos I work in advertising so am used to looking critically at imagery, plus the premise seem to me to be suspiciously provocative - and then considering the source... :wink: ) but the second image in particular looked pretty obviously AI - the arm thing, clearly, but also more general vague superimpositionary uncanniness. The first one looked more real, for sure.

    Agree that it illustrates how easily people can be fooled on Socials - 'twas ever thus with words, but now images add a new dimension.
    I have half a dozen images like the first. I just wanted to vary it

    Fact is fake AI photos are now way beyond the uncanny valley and living amongst us

    Advertising as we know it is finished, for a start
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,238
    edited May 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    The UK regulations (which are set by the EU, LOL) state that the speedo can't understate the speed and must not overstate it by more than 10% + 10km/h. This is probably a relict from the days when the speedo was mechanically driven but in modern cars it's calculated in the ECU from engine speed and transmission data so it would be possible to make the speedo 100% accurate.
    Is there not some potential for inaccuracy due to tyre pressure, such that you travel a different distance for each revolution of the axle?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything

    I put a ten word prompt into the latest version of Midjourney (which is now mindblowingly good). Images so good roger - a professional - wondered who the photographer might be

    This is where we are. I could have put those on Twitter and said “omg Russia is using devastated Ukraine as location for fashion shoots” and - judging by the reaction here - 90% of people would have believed it. And why not? Unless you examine with unceasing care the images are entirely convincing. Even at the granular level you cannot be sure. It’s a guess either way


    That is where we are. Welcome to the deepfake world of Total Untruth (and also the end of photography, modelling, location scouts, vogue shoots etc)
    No blowing my own trumpet (not least cos I work in advertising so am used to looking critically at imagery, plus the premise seem to me to be suspiciously provocative - and then considering the source... :wink: ) but the second image in particular looked pretty obviously AI - the arm thing, clearly, but also more general vague superimpositionary uncanniness. The first one looked more real, for sure.

    Agree that it illustrates how easily people can be fooled on Socials - 'twas ever thus with words, but now images add a new dimension.
    It is very generic photography. And a lot of fashion stuff has long been digitally manipulated to the point of being wholly manufactured. Remember the row about “fake sizing” of models to the point of physical impossibility?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,756
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything
    Nobody would really be crass enough to do a Vogue photo in a war zone.


  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    The speedo is designed to overreport your speed. Do you mean 5% under?

    "The regulation states that speedometers must never underreport a vehicle's speed, while it must never overreport by more than 110% of the actual speed + 6.25mph.

    So if you’re going 40mph, your speedometer may read up to 50.25mph - but it can never read less than 40mph."

    https://www.startrescue.co.uk/breakdown-cover/motoring-advice/safety-and-security/how-accurate-is-my-speedometer
    Yes, I got it backwards somehow. My speedo reports 60mph, Google Maps will say I'm doing 57.
    I tend to believe Google Maps in this case, and it seems from your info that might be the better choice.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,499
    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    Presumably decided to turn up in court with a lawyer, rather than simply accepting the fixed penalty.

    In fact, if he’d accepted a fixed penalty, it wouldn’t be in the news.
    I suspect it was more 25% over the limit so no offer and off to court you go.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    edited May 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    Students are always included (rightly) in the immigration figures, but once a student visa has expired (Their course is over) don't they tend to head back ?
    Or do most stay ?

    A percentage stay - depends on what they are studying IIRC.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,223
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    Hope you escape but I'd say wait a while longer before relaxing. I got one recently that came so late it was past the date for responding to it.
    Not valid then......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,377
    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Them digital signs are not calibrated, and somewhat inaccurate.

    The easiest way to check your spedo, is to have a passenger with a GPS (almost all phones now have this), while you drive at a steady speed, preferably with cruise control.

    It’s illegal for your spedo to read under, so manufacturers traditionally made them read 5-10% over to avoid trouble. That said, most modern cars with digital readouts are a lot more accurate.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,083
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    Migration or immigration? If 500,000 arrived and 500,000 left that’s surely OK?
    No, NET migration - i.e. a million more people arrive than leave.
    @OldKingCole - my apologies, I've just noticed what you said: indeed, it's lazy use of English by the journalist (and indeed me) who should have said net IMmigration. Pedantically (and who here doesn't applaud a pedant?) you are quite correct.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,921
    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything

    I put a ten word prompt into the latest version of Midjourney (which is now mindblowingly good). Images so good roger - a professional - wondered who the photographer might be

    This is where we are. I could have put those on Twitter and said “omg Russia is using devastated Ukraine as location for fashion shoots” and - judging by the reaction here - 90% of people would have believed it. And why not? Unless you examine with unceasing care the images are entirely convincing. Even at the granular level you cannot be sure. It’s a guess either way


    That is where we are. Welcome to the deepfake world of Total Untruth (and also the end of photography, modelling, location scouts, vogue shoots etc)
    No blowing my own trumpet (not least cos I work in advertising so am used to looking critically at imagery, plus the premise seem to me to be suspiciously provocative - and then considering the source... :wink: ) but the second image in particular looked pretty obviously AI - the arm thing, clearly, but also more general vague superimpositionary uncanniness. The first one looked more real, for sure.

    Agree that it illustrates how easily people can be fooled on Socials - 'twas ever thus with words, but now images add a new dimension.
    I have half a dozen images like the first. I just wanted to vary it

    Fact is fake AI photos are now way beyond the uncanny valley and living amongst us

    Advertising as we know it is finished, for a start
    'XXXX as we know it is finished' is the story of progress, no?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,778
    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything

    I put a ten word prompt into the latest version of Midjourney (which is now mindblowingly good). Images so good roger - a professional - wondered who the photographer might be

    This is where we are. I could have put those on Twitter and said “omg Russia is using devastated Ukraine as location for fashion shoots” and - judging by the reaction here - 90% of people would have believed it. And why not? Unless you examine with unceasing care the images are entirely convincing. Even at the granular level you cannot be sure. It’s a guess either way


    That is where we are. Welcome to the deepfake world of Total Untruth (and also the end of photography, modelling, location scouts, vogue shoots etc)
    Also, clothes designers.
    Yes
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,377
    edited May 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Doesn’t look quite right, does it? @Leon on a wind-up?

    Edit: I see that indeed, yes it was.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,756

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    The UK regulations (which are set by the EU, LOL) state that the speedo can't understate the speed and must not overstate it by more than 10% + 10km/h. This is probably a relict from the days when the speedo was mechanically driven but in modern cars it's calculated in the ECU from engine speed and transmission data so it would be possible to make the speedo 100% accurate.
    Is there not some potential for inaccuracy due to tyre pressure, such that you travel a different distance for each revolution of the axle?
    A bit. You normally lose 1mm of circumference for every 2psi pressure drop so the tyres would have to be perilously underinflated to make a significant difference.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,369
    The purpose p

    tlg86 said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    mph
    Edit: I see the £510 was for legal costs, not a fine #crapreporting. Why'd he bother to contest it? (And I hope he's paying the legal bill.)

    Standard report:

    "A court official said the Archbishop pleaded guilty and was handed three penalty points and a £300 fine. He was ordered to pay £90 in costs and a £120 victim surcharge, bringing the final legal bill to £510."

    The suggestion is that somehow he failed to cough up the standard penalty and it went to court by this oversight.

    (BTW how many PBers have not driven at 25 in a 20?)
    I've probably gone at 25 a few times through carelessness but generally speaking the lower the speed limit the more assiduous I am at respecting it. In a 20mph zone I generally trundle along at around 19-22. To this date the only speeding ticket I have was for doing 56 in a 50mph spot of the A1. On 70mph roads I generally do 75-80 but it doesn't seem to bother the authorities.
    I tend to take the same approach, but I find 20s very difficult to stick to.
    Living in London I am very used to them, to the extent that I now feel a bit alarmed driving at 30 in a built up area.
    20 mph are near universal in Scotland and I think they are effective in reducing average speeds. I feel people drive fast in urban areas when I go to England.

    I think the expectation is that drivers moderate their speed in 20mph zones but not necessarily drive at less than 20mph. The archbishop was perhaps unlucky.

    Speed limits logically should be an absolute maximum: as fast as is safe but no more than this. And set relatively high. Drivers however treat them as recommended speeds and they should be OK as long as they don't exceed the limits massively. So you have to set limits low to get average speeds down.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,038
    Cookie said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    It's OK because the government is controlling immigration now that we have taken back control.
    Immigration is the one Brexit benefit according to the OBR analysis. Loss of investment and suppression of trade worse than it expected, but higher than expected immigration partly compensated, confirming their prediction of an overall 4% damage to the economy caused by Brexit.

    I think this means the UK will necessarily be more invested in high immigration outside of the EU than it was as a member. It no longer has the choice.
    I may be misunderstanding this, but surely there is no point to (picking numbers out of the air) a 1% increase in GNP if we also have a 1% increase in population? The country gets richer, but those riches have to be shared more widely - so individually, we don't get any richer.
    Yes. SFAICS the BBC etc report all this as an increase in total GDP without reference to GDP per head.

    We feel on this account to be in a completely crazy circular motion in which ever rising numbers of migrants are needed to keep the show on the road, which in turn leads to further need of further numbers to keep the show on the road. But there are still vast numbers of vacancies in essential services of all sorts, and 5 million people of working age not working.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,328
    I suspect a small Labour majority is more likely than no majority, but depends on the campaign. The Tories will do everything they can to sow doubt - that is what Labour under Brown did quite well in 2010 and was one factor that caused the Tories to come up short in that election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,377
    So net migration of 700,000. That’s three Milton Keyneses.

    How many housing units were completed last year?
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288
    Nigelb said:

    I do hope Morgan gets his comeuppance.
    There will be much more such evidence, no doubt.

    Piers Morgan authorised illegal blagging of prince’s bank details, court told
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/may/11/piers-morgan-authorised-blagging-of-prince-michael-bank-details-court-told
    ...When the prince’s lawyers complained to Morgan that the story was inaccurate and the records must have been obtained illegally, Morgan dismissed their “poor and thinly disguised threat” and insisted the information had come from an “impeccable source”.

    In reality, the Mirror obtained the information after employing private investigators to pose as the prince’s accountant, phone the bank and illegally “blag” his account details, the court heard...

    In the words of Kevin Keegan I'd love it, I'd just love it.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,256

    DavidL said:

    0.1% growt in Q1. Was @MaxPB not telling us it was going to be 0.6? The large number of public sector strikes seem to have let the steam out.

    Let the ‘but this is bound to be revised up’ chat begin.
    More to the point, the figures are almost certain to be wrong, whether revised up or down.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,205
    edited May 2023
    Sandpit said:

    So net migration of 700,000. That’s three Milton Keyneses.

    How many housing units were completed last year?

    Totally unsustainable. This will lead to a populist backlash eventually.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,554
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The tastelessness is incroyable


    A great shot. Who's the photographer?
    We sure it's not AI ?

    The girl on the right (As we look at it) / her left has an extraordinarily long forearm. Also no thumbs showing, though they could be hidden.

    Perhaps it is a real photo though and I'm doing a disservice.
    Congratulations. You are the first PB-er to guess that these images are entirely fake. The women, the clothes, the locations, everything
    Nobody would really be crass enough to do a Vogue photo in a war zone.


    Other than @Leon himself of course... ;)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,223
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    So net migration of 700,000. That’s three Milton Keyneses.

    How many housing units were completed last year?

    Totally unsustainable. This will lead to a populist backlash eventually.
    We could leave the err.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,441

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    Hope you escape but I'd say wait a while longer before relaxing. I got one recently that came so late it was past the date for responding to it.
    Not valid then......
    Really? I settled it anyway.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,857
    Farooq said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    Speed demon.
    God speed
    My God, my God, why have you overtaken me?
    -Psalm 20's plenty
    Genuine Bible verse for the occasion:

    "One who moves too hurriedly misses the way" - Proverbs 19:2
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    ROFL Kemi is hopeless
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,223
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    I bet it was a variable limit on a motorway.
    Hmmm, I'll wind that back slightly if so. I was picturing a single carriageway A-road, but you're right to remind me that context matters.
    I feel I'm tempting fate writing this, but I was flashed by a camera on the M25 two weeks ago. It was at 2am and it was the first gantry with limits with it set to 50mph. I refuse to brake unnecessarily on a motorway so just got of the gas. I reckon I was doing 65mph when I went through it, but my view is, they need to give you a chance to slow down. Going from 70 to 50 and doing so on a gantry with not much sighting (it was the one after you go over the M4) is a bit off in my opinion.

    Anyway, not heard anything, so maybe they don't care or someone has shown some common sense.
    Hope you escape but I'd say wait a while longer before relaxing. I got one recently that came so late it was past the date for responding to it.
    Not valid then......
    Really? I settled it anyway.
    https://moneynerd.co.uk/speeding-fine-received-after-14-days/
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,722
    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    The telegraph is speculating that net migration for the past year, to be announced in May 25, will be around ONE MILLION

    Stupefyingly huge

    It's OK because the government is controlling immigration now that we have taken back control.
    Immigration is the one Brexit benefit according to the OBR analysis. Loss of investment and suppression of trade worse than it expected, but higher than expected immigration partly compensated, confirming their prediction of an overall 4% damage to the economy caused by Brexit.

    I think this means the UK will necessarily be more invested in high immigration outside of the EU than it was as a member. It no longer has the choice.
    I may be misunderstanding this, but surely there is no point to (picking numbers out of the air) a 1% increase in GNP if we also have a 1% increase in population? The country gets richer, but those riches have to be shared more widely - so individually, we don't get any richer.
    Yes. SFAICS the BBC etc report all this as an increase in total GDP without reference to GDP per head.

    We feel on this account to be in a completely crazy circular motion in which ever rising numbers of migrants are needed to keep the show on the road, which in turn leads to further need of further numbers to keep the show on the road. But there are still vast numbers of vacancies in essential services of all sorts, and 5 million people of working age not working.
    And very many of them are in the "retired comfortably and very early" category who are not going to be enticed back- why should they be?

    Hence even lowish paid immigrants working can improve the overall average. Making up numbers, adding four percent to the number of workers only adds three percent to the number of mouths to feed.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,178
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    So net migration of 700,000. That’s three Milton Keyneses.

    How many housing units were completed last year?

    Totally unsustainable. This will lead to a populist backlash eventually.
    'But David, we wonder
    We wonder if the thunder
    Is ever really gonna begin, begin, begin'
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,781
    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Google maps also tends to understate how long it will take to drive anywhere - though maybe that's just me!
    That's funny. I find Google maps usually spot on in terms of time, but under-reads the speedo by 5% or more. I had assumed the GPS was more accurate than the speedo (since by law these can't under-read but can over-read), but I'm not convinced that the GPS recorded speed is completely accurate?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,377
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    So net migration of 700,000. That’s three Milton Keyneses.

    How many housing units were completed last year?

    Totally unsustainable. This will lead to a populist backlash eventually.
    Now, last year’s figures will be somewhat unusual, because of Ukraine and Hong Kong. The Ukranians are mostly women and children to intend to leave at the earliest opportunity once the war finishes, and the vast majority are not in their own housing but staying with families in the UK. The HK immigrants were a one-off as the country got taken over by China, but will likely be staying for the long term

    Yes, at some point, there will need to be radical solutions.

    My suggestion, would be a variation on how immigration works in where I live. If there’s a need for low-skilled immigrants, you offer a number of single people under 30 from most countries, a two-year non-renewable work permit. You’d need to limit the numbers, to protect British unskilled workers and stop a race back to minimum wage that we had under FoM, but the important thing is that these are temporary migrants expected to leave once their visa expires.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,587
    edited May 2023

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    The big question is how many Scottish current SNP seats will Labour win.

    That more than anything else will determine whether (and the size of ) Labour's majority

    I suspect 20 seats would be enough. Based on current Scotland Westminster VI polling that seems to be realistic.
    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dialup said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yes. 1-20 seat majority IMO.

    Why do you think this GIN?
    SNP implosion combines with tactical voting and a general mood for change. They may fall just short of an overall majority but I think Scotland will just get them over the line.
    Interesting, thanks.

    I do think Labour could win 20-30 seats in Scotland and being largest party there is also not out of the question.
    Useless, when it comes to govewrning in England. That's the dilemma.

    Labour have to get an absolute majority - or a LD coalition - on English seats alone, as well as in the UK as a whole.

    The inverse West Lothian question, which everyone seems to be missing.

    -The Tories scrapped EVEL
    -Labour are against EVEL, and had MPs like John Reid in cabinet positions which were devolved in Scotland. I don't think Starmer gives a shit about the Daily Mail going nuts if he instructs Pamela Nash and Douglas Alexander to go through the 'Aye lobby' to get his NHS reforms through. Nobody will care other than people who would never vote Labour in a million years.
    The Tories never did implement or scrap EVEL properly. And they scrapped it precisely to create a bear trap for Labour.

    It's all abour perception. Things have changed forever. The Tories have nothing to lose. Labour have everything to lose.
    If you think Starmer would lose a close run vote in parliament to get a key piece of legislation because he instructed SLAB MPs to abstain I have a bridge to sell to you.
    And if you think that the Tories would never let him forget it, on the grounds of the illegitimacy of the vote in their perception, you are far too naive to be allowed out on your own on a political betting website.
    I suspect Starmer would try to use Barnett consequentials to justify it and people will move on. I can see the Tories trying it, but it will probably be about as successful as the various shit they try and pin on him. It will enrage GB news viewers and Daily Mail readers but nobody else.
    There's more to voting than Barnett consequentials.

    Moreover, yes, the students fees vote had Barnett consequentials, but there was a huge row about LDs for Scottish constituencies voting. Swap SNP for LD and it woiuld be much worse today now the issue has been sensitised by Mr Cameron. Not very logical, but there we are.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,377
    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    AlistairM said:

    Speeding Archbishop.

    Archbishop of Canterbury fined £510 and given three points on his licence for speeding

    Cameras caught him doing 25mph on a 20mph road in London last October:

    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/1656918619387838464

    £510 pounds for 5mph over the limit?! Wow!

    I should be quite grateful for my £90 course offer for 75 in a 60 then, at the archbishop's rate it would have been over £1500.
    If it were up to me, you'd be banned for 75 in a 60.
    It was on the M25 in a variable speed limit. I must have missed the sign (fair enough) but so did everyone else.

    Personally I think 75mph is perfectly safe on some sections of single carriageway but I accept there are plenty where it's dangerous... then again there are plenty of national speed limit roads where 60 is suicidal.
    There are definitely sections where single carriageway speeding is relatively safe, but I'd still throw the book at anyone who does it. Those 60 roads have all sorts of things going on that motorways try to engineer out: blind summits, fallen branches, adverse cambers, no central reservation protection, cyclists, walkers, tractors, potholes, oncoming overtakers and much more. People get complacent on A-roads, especially ones they know, and suddenly one day conditions are different and wham you're in a pickle.
    I've got a lot more sympathy with people going too fast on a motorway: they are spaces designed for speed, and the risks are lower. 85 on a motorway is silly. 75 on a single carriageway is stupid.
    The 70 mph speed limit was brought in when people were driving Ford Anglias and Cortinas. Modern cars stop in half the distance. 70mph is absurdly slow which is why virtually no-one adheres to it and why most other European countries have the equivalent of 80
    Depends where in the country you are and I think many forget the typical speedometer showing 75mph is far far more likely to be doing 70mph or less than near 75mph. On the M25 in medium traffic, good conditions I'd guess the proportion of traffic actually speeding is less than 10% of vehicles, maybe 20-25% of cars. Very few doing actual 80mph+ rather than 80mph+ on speedo.
    I hadn't really clocked till recently (probably cos I only drive shortish distances with a car full of kids or shopping) but the speedo on our mighty lemon yellow Kia defo understates vs them digital signs that tell you what your speed is.
    Google maps tends to report my speed at about 5% over what my speedo says. I tend to trust the app, but I'm not clear in my head why I do.
    Google maps also tends to understate how long it will take to drive anywhere - though maybe that's just me!
    That's funny. I find Google maps usually spot on in terms of time, but under-reads the speedo by 5% or more. I had assumed the GPS was more accurate than the speedo (since by law these can't under-read but can over-read), but I'm not convinced that the GPS recorded speed is completely accurate?
    Google Maps on your phone is going to be damn close, if you’re doing a steady speed on a straight road. Much more so than a mechanical spedo.

    There are dedicated in-car race GPS boxes, from companies like Racelogic and Dragy, that have a high resolution and will be more accurate still.
This discussion has been closed.