Underneath the polling boost, normal people are still feeling the hurt from the economy.
I’m putting “polling boost” down to a “Seasonal Phenomena” for Spring, not based on anything substantial.
If I’m right, I expect the Tory position to stall and slip back in May and June, drop back clearly in Autumn.
For evidence, I point to how last Spring, despite everything getting thrown at Boris, he closed the gap to just 4 points in April, on the average of all the polling. This years Spring Bounce still not electorally effective as that as HY pointed out “Great, we have clawed back to merely John Major Wipe Out territory.” This slow move still leaves a huge gulf, which could be telling us so many already made up their mind to throw the Tories out of power. But the evidence is there, the Tories do seem to have good Aprils - but can’t hold it throughout rest of year.
If I’m right, and proved right or wrong in Spring Bounce theory - which I am copyrighting as Daffodil Theory (c) - in coming weeks and months, the Tories slip back, it suggests that through Sunak’s greed at wanting to remain Primeminister, the Tories will pass up their best possible result next spring, holding out throughout summer and into Autumn 2024.
In least surprising news of the day, I see that Raab has added the BBC to the list of those guilty of making him a rubbish manager (interview in the Mail). I wonder how much further the tentacles of the Woke Blob will extend?
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
I think we need some gentlemen’s wagers - and gentlewomen’s - on how long Starmer will take to suspend/expel Diane Abbott
I bet 5 cyberbaht she’ll be out by teatime
I used to have some sympathy for her, even though she obviously wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed and I don't agree with her politics, because she seemed to get an extra level of abuse because she is a black woman. But this is really unforgivable - she certainly should be finished now.
Sorry, I've just woken up, what has she done now?
Sent THIS letter to the Observer
while shocking it's not surprising. I can understand why she's said it that way she's subject to large volumes of abuse (most of it sexist and racist) and being on the receiving end of that can cloud your judgement.
it doesn't make it right and she should be suspended from the party because of it.
The problem she has, is that a lot of what she calls sexist and racist, is actually numerist and stupidist.
She wasn’t being called out for being a black woman, she was being called out for being innumerate and illiterate.
That's neither fair nor accurate. Yes, Abbott has received abuse because of her abilities. But she has also, in the 35 years she's been an MP, received huge amounts of abuse from racists, misogynists and others about her race and other physical characteristics that are unrelated to her abilities.
Sure, she’s received racist and sexist comments during her career. She’s also given out lots of them herself, and on many occasions questioned the motives of those criticising her political positioning.
If I call her an idiot for saying that 10,000 police officers will cost £300,000 over four years, that doesn’t make me racist or sexist.
In least surprising news of the day, I see that Raab has added the BBC to the list of those guilty of making him a rubbish manager (interview in the Mail). I wonder how much further the tentacles of the Woke Blob will extend?
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
Not quite the least surprising.
Spielman messing up an interview is the least surprising news of the day. After all, this is a woman who couldn't define safeguarding and then accidentally suggested sexting wasn't a safeguarding issue. So saying schools are intimidated by the inspection regime but that it is a positive and affirming experience for them is par for the course.
How on earth did she ever get appointed, even with her background? A genuinely dangerous woman, not because of malice but because she's not up to it.
I would say there is no large group of people who have suffered worse discrimination than the Jews, over the past two thousand years, beginning with Hadrian’s attempt at genocide.
Indeed, one explanation for the average high IQ of Ashkenazi Jews - about 115, compared to the average 100 of humanity in general - is that they suffered so much persecution and murder over the centuries only the very brightest survived. Also this prejudice against them made Jews prize education and scholarship more than most people - as they were excluded from other areas of life - another eugenic pressure on them
The over representation of Jews in Nobel prize winners is quite extraordinary, for instance
There was a time when Jews absolutely dominated basketball in the USA.
It had nothing to do with genetics & everything to do with the culture of that time & place.
Culture & the context in which that culture gets to express itself matters enormously.
Sure. But it’s daft to deny that Jewish people are generally smarter than average. Every single metric shows this. If you don’t like IQ try any other gauge
The Nobel one is amazing. Jews are 0.2% of humanity yet they have won 22% of Nobel prizes
Somewhere there is a Jewish mother tutting and saying ‘Only 22%?’.
Contra Churchill’s parochial and patronising observation about Greeks and Scots ('Of all the small nations of this earth, perhaps only the ancient Greeks surpass the Scots in their contribution to mankind'), pound for pound Jews surpass all the nations. Ubermensch one might say..
I get apologising, but how does one disassociate from your own remarks
In this case, perhaps admit you meant them, and that it's wrong, and you want to learn from your mistake and grow ?
I really dislike the "I was hacked!" excuse, which is nearly always b/s. A more meaningful excuse is: "I wrote something poorly that could be misunderstood; I did not get my meaning across." But that does not apply here.
I would say there is no large group of people who have suffered worse discrimination than the Jews, over the past two thousand years, beginning with Hadrian’s attempt at genocide.
Indeed, one explanation for the average high IQ of Ashkenazi Jews - about 115, compared to the average 100 of humanity in general - is that they suffered so much persecution and murder over the centuries only the very brightest survived. Also this prejudice against them made Jews prize education and scholarship more than most people - as they were excluded from other areas of life - another eugenic pressure on them
The over representation of Jews in Nobel prize winners is quite extraordinary, for instance
There was a time when Jews absolutely dominated basketball in the USA.
It had nothing to do with genetics & everything to do with the culture of that time & place.
Culture & the context in which that culture gets to express itself matters enormously.
Sure. But it’s daft to deny that Jewish people are generally smarter than average. Every single metric shows this. If you don’t like IQ try any other gauge
The Nobel one is amazing. Jews are 0.2% of humanity yet they have won 22% of Nobel prizes
Somewhere there is a Jewish mother tutting and saying ‘Only 22%?’.
Contra Churchill’s parochial and patronising observation about Greeks and Scots ('Of all the small nations of this earth, perhaps only the ancient Greeks surpass the Scots in their contribution to mankind'), pound for pound Jews surpass all the nations. Ubermensch one might say..
In some of his more private discussions, Hitler made the same observation. He loathed and feared the Jews BECAUSE he saw them as the ultimate rivals to Aryans (who he really believed were or should be supreme). A deep irony which few people realise
As an aside, I've just discovered that my mum met Barry Humphries on a number of occasions over the decades, through a mutual Australian friend. Apparently there was an informal 'club' of Aussies of that generation in London. Which apparently included the non-Australian Spike Milligan.
Coming back to what happens in just 11 days and 11 nights. How many seats do you sense Tories will end up losing next week? 500 is the given isn’t it, it’s definitely that much, and if it’s merely that or close to 500 it’s a good result for the Conservatives. But closer to a thousand becomes a bit of a bad result, does it not?
Where between 500-1000 do you think Conservative losses will be?
Not that I think a 750 seat loss proves anything about how next years GE could go. Mike Smithsons anecdote last week about how it was only in the last two weeks of 1992 election he could sense the Tories we’re going to hang on, was very interesting.
I would say there is no large group of people who have suffered worse discrimination than the Jews, over the past two thousand years, beginning with Hadrian’s attempt at genocide.
Indeed, one explanation for the average high IQ of Ashkenazi Jews - about 115, compared to the average 100 of humanity in general - is that they suffered so much persecution and murder over the centuries only the very brightest survived. Also this prejudice against them made Jews prize education and scholarship more than most people - as they were excluded from other areas of life - another eugenic pressure on them
The over representation of Jews in Nobel prize winners is quite extraordinary, for instance
There was a time when Jews absolutely dominated basketball in the USA.
It had nothing to do with genetics & everything to do with the culture of that time & place.
Culture & the context in which that culture gets to express itself matters enormously.
Sure. But it’s daft to deny that Jewish people are generally smarter than average. Every single metric shows this. If you don’t like IQ try any other gauge
The Nobel one is amazing. Jews are 0.2% of humanity yet they have won 22% of Nobel prizes
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
In least surprising news of the day, I see that Raab has added the BBC to the list of those guilty of making him a rubbish manager (interview in the Mail). I wonder how much further the tentacles of the Woke Blob will extend?
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
Not quite the least surprising.
Spielman messing up an interview is the least surprising news of the day. After all, this is a woman who couldn't define safeguarding and then accidentally suggested sexting wasn't a safeguarding issue. So saying schools are intimidated by the inspection regime but that it is a positive and affirming experience for them is par for the course.
How on earth did she ever get appointed, even with her background? A genuinely dangerous woman, not because of malice but because she's not up to it.
More importantly, cricket update for you: incredibly tense at Hove. Still raining, but easing off. Forecast drier this afternoon. But pelting down all morning, so ground saturated. Will it dry enough for Yorkshire to knock off the runs?
This from the person who said "white people love playing divide and rule" really shouldn't be a surprise. Good on Sir Keir for doing what EdM should have done.
“I accidentally composed wrote and posted a letter to a newspaper which I completely did not mean”
A laughable explanation. She would have been better off by claiming to have been "hacked" as is the norm for politicians when they say something obviously racist, misogynistic, homophobic, or defamatory.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
I would say there is no large group of people who have suffered worse discrimination than the Jews, over the past two thousand years, beginning with Hadrian’s attempt at genocide.
Indeed, one explanation for the average high IQ of Ashkenazi Jews - about 115, compared to the average 100 of humanity in general - is that they suffered so much persecution and murder over the centuries only the very brightest survived. Also this prejudice against them made Jews prize education and scholarship more than most people - as they were excluded from other areas of life - another eugenic pressure on them
The over representation of Jews in Nobel prize winners is quite extraordinary, for instance
There was a time when Jews absolutely dominated basketball in the USA.
It had nothing to do with genetics & everything to do with the culture of that time & place.
Culture & the context in which that culture gets to express itself matters enormously.
Sure. But it’s daft to deny that Jewish people are generally smarter than average. Every single metric shows this. If you don’t like IQ try any other gauge
The Nobel one is amazing. Jews are 0.2% of humanity yet they have won 22% of Nobel prizes
Somewhere there is a Jewish mother tutting and saying ‘Only 22%?’.
Contra Churchill’s parochial and patronising observation about Greeks and Scots ('Of all the small nations of this earth, perhaps only the ancient Greeks surpass the Scots in their contribution to mankind'), pound for pound Jews surpass all the nations. Ubermensch one might say..
The best example of a tiger mother I knew was from the Ivory Coast.
Her daughter got nine A Stars, and one A for GCSE. She grounded her for a month, for her failure to get the extra A Star.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
Underneath the polling boost, normal people are still feeling the hurt from the economy.
I’m putting “polling boost” down to a “Seasonal Phenomena” for Spring, not based on anything substantial.
If I’m right, I expect the Tory position to stall and slip back in May and June, drop back clearly in Autumn.
For evidence, I point to how last Spring, despite everything getting thrown at Boris, he closed the gap to just 4 points in April, on the average of all the polling. This years Spring Bounce still not electorally effective as that as HY pointed out “Great, we have clawed back to merely John Major Wipe Out territory.” This slow move still leaves a huge gulf, which could be telling us so many already made up their mind to throw the Tories out of power. But the evidence is there, the Tories do seem to have good Aprils - but can’t hold it throughout rest of year.
If I’m right, and proved right or wrong in Spring Bounce theory - which I am copyrighting as Daffodil Theory (c) - in coming weeks and months, the Tories slip back, it suggests that through Sunak’s greed at wanting to remain Primeminister, the Tories will pass up their best possible result next spring, holding out throughout summer and into Autumn 2024.
We also have a couple of months where we don't pay Council Tax (Feb/March) which is a hefty but transient windfall for most people.
Keep meaning to see if it gives a meaningful signal in the polls year by year.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
I’m going with both. I am rarely shocked or outraged. This morning I was both!
I think we need some gentlemen’s wagers - and gentlewomen’s - on how long Starmer will take to suspend/expel Diane Abbott
I bet 5 cyberbaht she’ll be out by teatime
I used to have some sympathy for her, even though she obviously wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed and I don't agree with her politics, because she seemed to get an extra level of abuse because she is a black woman. But this is really unforgivable - she certainly should be finished now.
Sorry, I've just woken up, what has she done now?
Sent THIS letter to the Observer
while shocking it's not surprising. I can understand why she's said it that way she's subject to large volumes of abuse (most of it sexist and racist) and being on the receiving end of that can cloud your judgement.
it doesn't make it right and she should be suspended from the party because of it.
The problem she has, is that a lot of what she calls sexist and racist, is actually numerist and stupidist.
She wasn’t being called out for being a black woman, she was being called out for being innumerate and illiterate.
That's neither fair nor accurate. Yes, Abbott has received abuse because of her abilities. But she has also, in the 35 years she's been an MP, received huge amounts of abuse from racists, misogynists and others about her race and other physical characteristics that are unrelated to her abilities.
Sure, she’s received racist and sexist comments during her career. She’s also given out lots of them herself, and on many occasions questioned the motives of those criticising her political positioning.
If I call her an idiot for saying that 10,000 police officers will cost £300,000 over four years, that doesn’t make me racist or sexist.
No. But if you call her a 'fat black bitch who should be strung up and then cut into pieces' (and much worse, unprintable) then it would. And that's the sort of abuse I'm talking about, and that's the sort of stuff she's put up with all through her career. But you choose to ignore that.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
Underneath the polling boost, normal people are still feeling the hurt from the economy.
I’m putting “polling boost” down to a “Seasonal Phenomena” for Spring, not based on anything substantial.
If I’m right, I expect the Tory position to stall and slip back in May and June, drop back clearly in Autumn.
For evidence, I point to how last Spring, despite everything getting thrown at Boris, he closed the gap to just 4 points in April, on the average of all the polling. This years Spring Bounce still not electorally effective as that as HY pointed out “Great, we have clawed back to merely John Major Wipe Out territory.” This slow move still leaves a huge gulf, which could be telling us so many already made up their mind to throw the Tories out of power. But the evidence is there, the Tories do seem to have good Aprils - but can’t hold it throughout rest of year.
If I’m right, and proved right or wrong in Spring Bounce theory - which I am copyrighting as Daffodil Theory (c) - in coming weeks and months, the Tories slip back, it suggests that through Sunak’s greed at wanting to remain Primeminister, the Tories will pass up their best possible result next spring, holding out throughout summer and into Autumn 2024.
Good morning
I am not sure about dropping back in the coming months not least because with better weather and less energy use maybe cheering people up a bit
I expect things to remain much the same with Sunak's approval ratings gradually increasing, but as was discussed in the politics show this morning and Andy Haldane (BOE) saying inflation will half this year, I expect tax cuts next spring and Sunak to take on Starmer in October 24 which will be a genuine contest
It is likely Labour will be the next government but some of the complacency and hubris from Labour supporters may be a wee bit unwise
Notwithstanding, I expect the locals to be bad for the conservatives who are very fortunate that they will be drowned out by the coronation festivities
I think we need some gentlemen’s wagers - and gentlewomen’s - on how long Starmer will take to suspend/expel Diane Abbott
I bet 5 cyberbaht she’ll be out by teatime
I used to have some sympathy for her, even though she obviously wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed and I don't agree with her politics, because she seemed to get an extra level of abuse because she is a black woman. But this is really unforgivable - she certainly should be finished now.
Sorry, I've just woken up, what has she done now?
Sent THIS letter to the Observer
while shocking it's not surprising. I can understand why she's said it that way she's subject to large volumes of abuse (most of it sexist and racist) and being on the receiving end of that can cloud your judgement.
it doesn't make it right and she should be suspended from the party because of it.
Pretty much agree. It’s a really daft letter and while I’ve always felt sympathetic to her, I think this has to mean a suspension.
I never really understand why we play this Top Trumps Atrocities game. To put it extremely mildly, it misses the point when we discuss and consider these things.
It is, though, a great illustration of why the concept of 'race' is such a malign one. Racism exists; race really doesn't.
What she wrote is actually very misleading as far as the law is concerned, because the Equality Act explicitly includes nationality and national or ethnic origins in its definition of race. She shouldn't be sowing confusion about the legal definition.
Oh, I entirely agree with that point. I’m just deeply sceptical about race being a useful concept.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
I would say there is no large group of people who have suffered worse discrimination than the Jews, over the past two thousand years, beginning with Hadrian’s attempt at genocide.
Indeed, one explanation for the average high IQ of Ashkenazi Jews - about 115, compared to the average 100 of humanity in general - is that they suffered so much persecution and murder over the centuries only the very brightest survived. Also this prejudice against them made Jews prize education and scholarship more than most people - as they were excluded from other areas of life - another eugenic pressure on them
The over representation of Jews in Nobel prize winners is quite extraordinary, for instance
There was a time when Jews absolutely dominated basketball in the USA.
It had nothing to do with genetics & everything to do with the culture of that time & place.
Culture & the context in which that culture gets to express itself matters enormously.
Sure. But it’s daft to deny that Jewish people are generally smarter than average. Every single metric shows this. If you don’t like IQ try any other gauge
The Nobel one is amazing. Jews are 0.2% of humanity yet they have won 22% of Nobel prizes
Take a subpopulation that already highly values education, put them through a ruthless filter that selects for the most intelligent & then give those people access to research labs at a time when science is advancing at a rapid pace.
Surprise! They get Nobel prizes at a disproportate rate. Is that sub-group actually more intelligent on average than the rest of the human population? Or did we just post-hoc select the most intelligent out of that subgroup & move them from eastern / central Europe to the west at a time when science funding was expanding massively?
You have to disprove the latter if you want to prove the former.
All I know is that if you REALLY need a lawyer, choose a Jew
How odd of God to choose the Jews. Yet not so odd as those who spurn the Jews yet choose a Jewish God.
In least surprising news of the day, I see that Raab has added the BBC to the list of those guilty of making him a rubbish manager (interview in the Mail). I wonder how much further the tentacles of the Woke Blob will extend?
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
Not quite the least surprising.
Spielman messing up an interview is the least surprising news of the day. After all, this is a woman who couldn't define safeguarding and then accidentally suggested sexting wasn't a safeguarding issue. So saying schools are intimidated by the inspection regime but that it is a positive and affirming experience for them is par for the course.
How on earth did she ever get appointed, even with her background? A genuinely dangerous woman, not because of malice but because she's not up to it.
More importantly, cricket update for you: incredibly tense at Hove. Still raining, but easing off. Forecast drier this afternoon. But pelting down all morning, so ground saturated. Will it dry enough for Yorkshire to knock off the runs?
Would be much funnier if they could play, but the pitch is so lively Yorkshire lost 7-25.
Incidentally short of something pretty special Glos/Worcs looks set to be a draw, which is a bit of a shame as it's been a very entertaining match. Rain forecast about two hours after lunch.
In least surprising news of the day, I see that Raab has added the BBC to the list of those guilty of making him a rubbish manager (interview in the Mail). I wonder how much further the tentacles of the Woke Blob will extend?
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
Not quite the least surprising.
Spielman messing up an interview is the least surprising news of the day. After all, this is a woman who couldn't define safeguarding and then accidentally suggested sexting wasn't a safeguarding issue. So saying schools are intimidated by the inspection regime but that it is a positive and affirming experience for them is par for the course.
How on earth did she ever get appointed, even with her background? A genuinely dangerous woman, not because of malice but because she's not up to it.
I remember thinking she ought to be an improvement on Wilshaw, who thought he knew loads by dint of having been a successful headmaster but knew less than he recognised. I bumped into her at a conference shortly after her appointment and she did seem in listening mode.
As an aside, I've just discovered that my mum met Barry Humphries on a number of occasions over the decades, through a mutual Australian friend. Apparently there was an informal 'club' of Aussies of that generation in London. Which apparently included the non-Australian Spike Milligan.
The Humphries-James-Greer mafia.
I note too from obits that, aside from Milligan, Humphries also hung out with Peter Cook. All three based up in Hampstead. Imagine listening in to those three.
Underneath the polling boost, normal people are still feeling the hurt from the economy.
I’m putting “polling boost” down to a “Seasonal Phenomena” for Spring, not based on anything substantial.
If I’m right, I expect the Tory position to stall and slip back in May and June, drop back clearly in Autumn.
For evidence, I point to how last Spring, despite everything getting thrown at Boris, he closed the gap to just 4 points in April, on the average of all the polling. This years Spring Bounce still not electorally effective as that as HY pointed out “Great, we have clawed back to merely John Major Wipe Out territory.” This slow move still leaves a huge gulf, which could be telling us so many already made up their mind to throw the Tories out of power. But the evidence is there, the Tories do seem to have good Aprils - but can’t hold it throughout rest of year.
If I’m right, and proved right or wrong in Spring Bounce theory - which I am copyrighting as Daffodil Theory (c) - in coming weeks and months, the Tories slip back, it suggests that through Sunak’s greed at wanting to remain Primeminister, the Tories will pass up their best possible result next spring, holding out throughout summer and into Autumn 2024.
Good morning
I am not sure about dropping back in the coming months not least because with better weather and less energy use maybe cheering people up a bit
I expect things to remain much the same with Sunak's approval ratings gradually increasing, but as was discussed in the politics show this morning and Andy Haldane (BOE) saying inflation will half this year, I expect tax cuts next spring and Sunak to take on Starmer in October 24 which will be a genuine contest
It is likely Labour will be the next government but some of the complacency and hubris from Labour supporters may be a wee bit unwise
Notwithstanding, I expect the locals to be bad for the conservatives who are very fortunate that they will be drowned out by the coronation festivities
There are millions of voters whose financial position is pretty good, right now. As inflation falls, there will be those who see their pay increasing real terms, and others who will be receiving serious interest on their savings for the first time in fifteen years.
I don't think that any of that is sufficient to win the Conservatives the next election, but I'm fairly confident they'll hold a similar number of seats to Labour in 2010.
In headline terms, I don't think Conservative losses will be that bad, since I'd expect losses to Labour to be partly offset by gains from independents and local parties, who did very well in 2019.
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
The only reasonably plausible excuse for her would be to say her illness caused her to write rubbish and send it without thinking.
Which would actually make sense, as it has after all happened before.
But it's not what she has said, and her excuse is even more nonsensical than the letter.
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
I wonder whether the Observer published it knowing it would get Abbott into trouble.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
Perhaps Abbott is frustrated that her own particular demographic - Afro-Caribbeans - has proven less successful than migrants of African and Asian heritage.
So, is Diane Abbott going to claim another health related explanation for her decision to send that letter to the Observer? Diabetic hypoglycemia combined with an extremely fulsome apology might actually do it, I can’t think of any other way for her to wriggle out of this one.
“The dog ate my second draft” isn’t really going to cut it, surely?
I think we need some gentlemen’s wagers - and gentlewomen’s - on how long Starmer will take to suspend/expel Diane Abbott
I bet 5 cyberbaht she’ll be out by teatime
I used to have some sympathy for her, even though she obviously wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed and I don't agree with her politics, because she seemed to get an extra level of abuse because she is a black woman. But this is really unforgivable - she certainly should be finished now.
Sorry, I've just woken up, what has she done now?
Sent THIS letter to the Observer
while shocking it's not surprising. I can understand why she's said it that way she's subject to large volumes of abuse (most of it sexist and racist) and being on the receiving end of that can cloud your judgement.
it doesn't make it right and she should be suspended from the party because of it.
The problem she has, is that a lot of what she calls sexist and racist, is actually numerist and stupidist.
She wasn’t being called out for being a black woman, she was being called out for being innumerate and illiterate.
That's neither fair nor accurate. Yes, Abbott has received abuse because of her abilities. But she has also, in the 35 years she's been an MP, received huge amounts of abuse from racists, misogynists and others about her race and other physical characteristics that are unrelated to her abilities.
Sure, she’s received racist and sexist comments during her career. She’s also given out lots of them herself, and on many occasions questioned the motives of those criticising her political positioning.
If I call her an idiot for saying that 10,000 police officers will cost £300,000 over four years, that doesn’t make me racist or sexist.
No. But if you call her a 'fat black bitch who should be strung up and then cut into pieces' (and much worse, unprintable) then it would. And that's the sort of abuse I'm talking about, and that's the sort of stuff she's put up with all through her career. But you choose to ignore that.
I’m not ignoring it, I’m acknowledging it. Whilst also acknowledging that not all critism of her was racist, and that she has on numerous occasions made clearly racist comments herself.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
I wonder whether the Observer published it knowing it would get Abbott into trouble.
It would have been a kindness to respond with a query along the lines of: “Are you sure you want us to publish this one?”
But that kindness is not owed to any politician dumb enough to send a letter like this one to a major UK newspaper.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
I wonder whether the Observer published it knowing it would get Abbott into trouble.
I do think that's a case where the letters editor ought to have said, "Are you sure you want this to be published?" I know that a lot of papers refused to publish anti-semitic letters that Patricia Highsmith would write to them in her declining years.
In least surprising news of the day, I see that Raab has added the BBC to the list of those guilty of making him a rubbish manager (interview in the Mail). I wonder how much further the tentacles of the Woke Blob will extend?
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
Not quite the least surprising.
Spielman messing up an interview is the least surprising news of the day. After all, this is a woman who couldn't define safeguarding and then accidentally suggested sexting wasn't a safeguarding issue. So saying schools are intimidated by the inspection regime but that it is a positive and affirming experience for them is par for the course.
How on earth did she ever get appointed, even with her background? A genuinely dangerous woman, not because of malice but because she's not up to it.
I remember thinking she ought to be an improvement on Wilshaw, who thought he knew loads by dint of having been a successful headmaster but knew less than he recognised. I bumped into her at a conference shortly after her appointment and she did seem in listening mode.
Sadly, didn't work like that.
Wilshaw was interesting. And at least he was willing to listen. He did, actually, recognise his limitations. For example, he acknowledged that he didn't know enough about further education, and took advice gratefully.
Why did the Observer publish Abbot's letter? To get her in trouble or because they agree with her? Maybe the Observer needs to take a course to educate itself?
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
I wonder whether the Observer published it knowing it would get Abbott into trouble.
Is it the Observer's job to stop her getting into trouble?
Why did the Observer publish Abbot's letter? To get her in trouble or because they agree with her? Maybe the Observer needs to take a course to educate itself?
As a left leaning paper, they'll clearly want Labour to win the next general election. in their position, would you rather this happen now, and give KS the bandwidth to deal with it carefully, or would you want it in the middle of a GE campaign.
Would Diane Abbott have said this 10 years ago. I suspect not. I tend to think such comments are borne of frustration at the plight of black people in Britain today. And I don't know why she is referring to South Africa and the USA in reference to the Britain of 2023. If she wants to talk history and internationalise it she can hardly ignore the Holocaust.
Blimey. That's astonishing. Where did you dig it up?
What do you mean, "Dig it up?"
She's said a number of stupid, borderline-racist stuff in the past. She's had criticism for it in the past.
Most importantly, she seems incapable of learning that it's wrong.
I mean did you remember the incident, or run across it on twitter? It's just a turn of phrase.
Sadly, because Abbott tends to make silly statement with boring regularity, it keeps on being mentioned. If she had learnt, it would probably have been long forgotten.
Why did the Observer publish Abbot's letter? To get her in trouble or because they agree with her? Maybe the Observer needs to take a course to educate itself?
A third possibility: they automatically publish letters from Labour MPs without really thinking what the letters are about.
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
I wonder whether the Observer published it knowing it would get Abbott into trouble.
I do think that's a case where the letters editor ought to have said, "Are you sure you want this to be published?" I know that a lot of papers refused to publish anti-semitic letters that Patricia Highsmith would write to them in her declining years.
Yes. Any editor that signed off on publishing that letter would have known, without doubt, that it would be the end of Abbott’s career in Labour. Or very close to it
I realised it within a minute of reading it. So that editor wanted Abbott gone
Why did the Observer publish Abbot's letter? To get her in trouble or because they agree with her? Maybe the Observer needs to take a course to educate itself?
The guardian observer is very New Labour. The Corbynite faction (like Seamus Milne) has been almost completely purged. They would be happy to see Abbott joining Corbyn in exile
I bet they did a little air punch when they got that letter
Why the United States keeps getting richer – with Britain lagging ever further behind
Britons will soon be “richer than Americans” read a BBC headline in January 2008.
Forecasters were predicting that for the first time in more than a century, GDP per head in the UK would surpass that of the US. ...[snip]... Yet by 2021, GDP per head across the pond had increased by 15pc, while Britons were only 3pc better off than in 2008. ...[snip]... While the US economy was 5pc larger in the final three months of last year than before Covid, the UK remained 0.6pc poorer. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/23/us-richer-than-uk-finance-inflation-taxes/ (£££)
The Telegraph does not quite say Britain's growth under Labour was snuffed out by Conservative governments but it does point to high tax rates under the blue team, contrasted with low tax rates and state intervention in America.
Yes, Democrat America is following Conservative economic policies, while Conservative Britain (and much of Europe) is following Labour ones. With predictable results.
So to summarise:
While Labour were in power, Britain's GDP per capita was catching up with the US's. After 13 years of Tory rule we've slipped back by 12%. And that's Labour's fault.
Right.
Also, the sky at night is white and the shining moon is black.
You think that the pre 2008 UK housing and finance bubble was sustainable and could be extrapolated forever ?
Do I need to point out what happened to the UK economy a few weeks later ?
The effect on the US economy was just as strong, yet they have bounced back whereas we have not.
Why is that? What is going on that drives this difference in outcomes?
Think of how different the choices open to this government would be if we’d had US levels of GDP growth for the last 15 years.
It really wasn't - there had been, and still is, a much greater emphasis on the financial sector in the UK than the USA.
And then the USA chose shale gas while the UK chose windmills.
Different reasons and different situations but cheaper energy gave the US economy, especially manufacturing, a boost the UK never got.
Meanwhile the UK economy is based on not letting house prices fall, increasing wealth consumption by the governing party's voter base and pouring money into the 'envy of the world'.
Why did the Observer publish Abbot's letter? To get her in trouble or because they agree with her? Maybe the Observer needs to take a course to educate itself?
For clicks, shorely? She's been doing loads media for years, if she doesn't know how to avoid saying things that get her fired then that's not their problem.
In least surprising news of the day, I see that Raab has added the BBC to the list of those guilty of making him a rubbish manager (interview in the Mail). I wonder how much further the tentacles of the Woke Blob will extend?
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
Not quite the least surprising.
Spielman messing up an interview is the least surprising news of the day. After all, this is a woman who couldn't define safeguarding and then accidentally suggested sexting wasn't a safeguarding issue. So saying schools are intimidated by the inspection regime but that it is a positive and affirming experience for them is par for the course.
How on earth did she ever get appointed, even with her background? A genuinely dangerous woman, not because of malice but because she's not up to it.
I remember thinking she ought to be an improvement on Wilshaw, who thought he knew loads by dint of having been a successful headmaster but knew less than he recognised. I bumped into her at a conference shortly after her appointment and she did seem in listening mode.
Sadly, didn't work like that.
Wilshaw was interesting. And at least he was willing to listen. He did, actually, recognise his limitations. For example, he acknowledged that he didn't know enough about further education, and took advice gratefully.
I actually thought Wilshaw did pretty well. He didn't get everything right but he was intelligent and he also had one priceless asset - nobody could seriously question his commitment to top-class education.
On that subject though, how many really good HMCIs have there been? David Bell. Possibly Mike Tomlinson and Michael Wilshaw. The others though have all been pretty inept. Woodhead, for example, was just awful, and is a key reason why OFSTED has never quite worked as it should.
Spielman however is just the pits. A typical placewoman who seems solely to parrot lines that will play well in the Daily Mail.
This is a conservative Brexiteer, albeit an unusual one.
https://twitter.com/William_Wragg/status/1649571213801398272 This evening, having kept quiet for a while, I was struck by the lamentable hopelessness of the Home Secretary, remembering particularly her first week or so as a Member of Parliament…
The Labour Party “investigation” is going to be one of those comedy one isn’t? The sort where the person appointed to “investigate” has to decide how long a period to wait for appearances sake before saying “this is the most cut and dried case I have ever seen”.
I think we need some gentlemen’s wagers - and gentlewomen’s - on how long Starmer will take to suspend/expel Diane Abbott
I bet 5 cyberbaht she’ll be out by teatime
I used to have some sympathy for her, even though she obviously wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed and I don't agree with her politics, because she seemed to get an extra level of abuse because she is a black woman. But this is really unforgivable - she certainly should be finished now.
She also doesn’t have the excuse of “slip of the tongue” or remarks “off the cuff”
She literally sat down and wrote a letter to a newspaper saying that anti Jewish hatred in the 20th century was no worse than the teasing of red headed white people
There is no way back from that. No possible excuse
Never go full Ken Livingstone
Probably actually worse than Livingstone's claims that Hitler supported Zionism before deciding on genocide instead?
No - because Ken was taunting Jewish people with that remark. It was deeply malicious.
The Labour Party “investigation” is going to be one of those comedy one isn’t? The sort where the person appointed to “investigate” has to decide how long a period to wait for appearances sake before saying “this is the most cut and died case I have ever seen”.
"died"?
That's slightly too drastic a punishment...
As regards the investigation, I expect the investigator to find exactly the findings the Labour Party leadership want, and then get promoted to the House of Lords...
Why the United States keeps getting richer – with Britain lagging ever further behind
Britons will soon be “richer than Americans” read a BBC headline in January 2008.
Forecasters were predicting that for the first time in more than a century, GDP per head in the UK would surpass that of the US. ...[snip]... Yet by 2021, GDP per head across the pond had increased by 15pc, while Britons were only 3pc better off than in 2008. ...[snip]... While the US economy was 5pc larger in the final three months of last year than before Covid, the UK remained 0.6pc poorer. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/23/us-richer-than-uk-finance-inflation-taxes/ (£££)
The Telegraph does not quite say Britain's growth under Labour was snuffed out by Conservative governments but it does point to high tax rates under the blue team, contrasted with low tax rates and state intervention in America.
Yes, Democrat America is following Conservative economic policies, while Conservative Britain (and much of Europe) is following Labour ones. With predictable results.
So to summarise:
While Labour were in power, Britain's GDP per capita was catching up with the US's. After 13 years of Tory rule we've slipped back by 12%. And that's Labour's fault.
Right.
Also, the sky at night is white and the shining moon is black.
You think that the pre 2008 UK housing and finance bubble was sustainable and could be extrapolated forever ?
Do I need to point out what happened to the UK economy a few weeks later ?
The effect on the US economy was just as strong, yet they have bounced back whereas we have not.
Why is that? What is going on that drives this difference in outcomes?
Think of how different the choices open to this government would be if we’d had US levels of GDP growth for the last 15 years.
It really wasn't - there had been, and still is, a much greater emphasis on the financial sector in the UK than the USA.
And then the USA chose shale gas while the UK chose windmills.
Different reasons and different situations but cheaper energy gave the US economy, especially manufacturing, a boost the UK never got.
Meanwhile the UK economy is based on not letting house prices fall, increasing wealth consumption by the governing party's voter base and pouring money into the 'envy of the world'.
Erm, the U.K. investment in “windmills” has made us a world leader in the technology and the price has now plummeted. It’s the sort of long term thinking many (me included) often criticise our governments for lacking, and in this case it’s a joint Labour/Tory/LibDem/SNP success.
Why the United States keeps getting richer – with Britain lagging ever further behind
Britons will soon be “richer than Americans” read a BBC headline in January 2008.
Forecasters were predicting that for the first time in more than a century, GDP per head in the UK would surpass that of the US. ...[snip]... Yet by 2021, GDP per head across the pond had increased by 15pc, while Britons were only 3pc better off than in 2008. ...[snip]... While the US economy was 5pc larger in the final three months of last year than before Covid, the UK remained 0.6pc poorer. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/23/us-richer-than-uk-finance-inflation-taxes/ (£££)
The Telegraph does not quite say Britain's growth under Labour was snuffed out by Conservative governments but it does point to high tax rates under the blue team, contrasted with low tax rates and state intervention in America.
Yes, Democrat America is following Conservative economic policies, while Conservative Britain (and much of Europe) is following Labour ones. With predictable results.
So to summarise:
While Labour were in power, Britain's GDP per capita was catching up with the US's. After 13 years of Tory rule we've slipped back by 12%. And that's Labour's fault.
Right.
Also, the sky at night is white and the shining moon is black.
You think that the pre 2008 UK housing and finance bubble was sustainable and could be extrapolated forever ?
Do I need to point out what happened to the UK economy a few weeks later ?
The effect on the US economy was just as strong, yet they have bounced back whereas we have not.
Why is that? What is going on that drives this difference in outcomes?
Think of how different the choices open to this government would be if we’d had US levels of GDP growth for the last 15 years.
It really wasn't - there had been, and still is, a much greater emphasis on the financial sector in the UK than the USA.
And then the USA chose shale gas while the UK chose windmills.
Alex Bell implies that at the time of the Sturgeon standing down there was an ongoing police investigation into possible perjury in the Salmond trial? Did I miss this or is this new information?
The Labour Party “investigation” is going to be one of those comedy one isn’t? The sort where the person appointed to “investigate” has to decide how long a period to wait for appearances sake before saying “this is the most cut and died case I have ever seen”.
"died"?
That's slightly too drastic a punishment...
As regards the investigation, I expect the investigator to find exactly the findings the Labour Party leadership want, and then get promoted to the House of Lords...
Hah! Oops…
Edit - all evidence now destroyed so no one will ever know.
Nice to see Starmer’s been quick to take the opportunity to rid himself of another Corbynite moron. I sympathise with the constant shite she’ll have had to endure throughout her time in public life and there’s no doubt she’s been a committed servant for Labour, but she’s far too far to the left for my mushy centrism.
It’s staggering that she thought it was a good idea to submit that to a national newspaper. Totally naive, like McDonnell waving the Little Red Book in the Commons. And the apology is laughable.
The amazing thing about Abbott’s failed apology is that it strongly suggests her original letter was not a suicide note - seeking expulsion - she actually thought it was a reasonable thing to write to a newspaper
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
I wonder whether the Observer published it knowing it would get Abbott into trouble.
I do think that's a case where the letters editor ought to have said, "Are you sure you want this to be published?" I know that a lot of papers refused to publish anti-semitic letters that Patricia Highsmith would write to them in her declining years.
Fine to offer a get out if she was no longer an MP. If an MP writes something like that, they should publish so the MP faces the consequences.
Love the account on this thread as a metaphor for constructive politics. Or a template for constructive policy making.
In 1914, a 29 yo engineer with the Ministry of Agriculture put an end to centuries of village feuding over water rights in rural Japan by inventing the Circular Water Diverter, "Entobunsui". A no-tech unmanned automatic cistern that fairly divided set amounts of irrigation water... https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1648815804295831552
Nice to see Starmer’s been quick to take the opportunity to rid himself of another Corbynite moron. I sympathise with the constant shite she’ll have had to endure throughout her time in public life and there’s no doubt she’s been a committed servant for Labour, but she’s far too far to the left for my mushy centrism.
It’s staggering that she thought it was a good idea to submit that to a national newspaper. Totally naive, like McDonnell waving the Little Red Book in the Commons. And the apology is laughable.
There’s another reality in which she moved around as a junior minister from 97-2010. She’d never have risen high but we have had a lot worse - in the role I think her natural compassion would have been welcome, and the civil service would be able to prevent the silliness.
Leon is a complete and utter arse who should never be allowed back into the country.
I wish to wholly and unreservedly withdraw this post and disassociate myself from it. The errors arose in an initial draft being posted. But there is no excuse, and I wish to apologise for any anguish caused.
Leon is a complete and utter arse who should never be allowed back into the country.
I wish to wholly and unreservedly withdraw this post and disassociate myself from it. The errors arose in an initial draft being posted. But there is no excuse, and I wish to apologise for any anguish caused.
Leon is a complete and utter arse who should never be allowed back into the country.
I wish to wholly and unreservedly withdraw this post and disassociate myself from it. The errors arose in an initial draft being posted. But there is no excuse, and I wish to apologise for any anguish caused.
Why can we only like posts once?
In a similar vein, why can't we like our own posts? ;-)
In least surprising news of the day, I see that Raab has added the BBC to the list of those guilty of making him a rubbish manager (interview in the Mail). I wonder how much further the tentacles of the Woke Blob will extend?
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
Not quite the least surprising.
Spielman messing up an interview is the least surprising news of the day. After all, this is a woman who couldn't define safeguarding and then accidentally suggested sexting wasn't a safeguarding issue. So saying schools are intimidated by the inspection regime but that it is a positive and affirming experience for them is par for the course.
How on earth did she ever get appointed, even with her background? A genuinely dangerous woman, not because of malice but because she's not up to it.
I remember thinking she ought to be an improvement on Wilshaw, who thought he knew loads by dint of having been a successful headmaster but knew less than he recognised. I bumped into her at a conference shortly after her appointment and she did seem in listening mode.
Sadly, didn't work like that.
Wilshaw was interesting. And at least he was willing to listen. He did, actually, recognise his limitations. For example, he acknowledged that he didn't know enough about further education, and took advice gratefully.
I actually thought Wilshaw did pretty well. He didn't get everything right but he was intelligent and he also had one priceless asset - nobody could seriously question his commitment to top-class education.
On that subject though, how many really good HMCIs have there been? David Bell. Possibly Mike Tomlinson and Michael Wilshaw. The others though have all been pretty inept. Woodhead, for example, was just awful, and is a key reason why OFSTED has never quite worked as it should.
Spielman however is just the pits. A typical placewoman who seems solely to parrot lines that will play well in the Daily Mail.
I met Wilshaw when he was a super-head and was impressed by his energy and determination. His core argument was that poor children in inner cities were failed by the education system due to low expectations by teachers. He definitely had the ear of power because Gove used the exact same words in a major speech shortly after being appointed SoS. Unfortunately there's a big difference between identifying a problem and solving it and this is very much in the "wouldn't start from here" category. I don't think low expectations are so much of a problem in schools these days but social disadvantage of every kind remain the same. Perhaps too much is expected of Education to solve all society's ills?
Nice to see Starmer’s been quick to take the opportunity to rid himself of another Corbynite moron. I sympathise with the constant shite she’ll have had to endure throughout her time in public life and there’s no doubt she’s been a committed servant for Labour, but she’s far too far to the left for my mushy centrism.
It’s staggering that she thought it was a good idea to submit that to a national newspaper. Totally naive, like McDonnell waving the Little Red Book in the Commons. And the apology is laughable.
Sometimes a bad apology is worse than no apology at all (or as a corollary, taking responsibility in a bad way is worst than not taking responsibility at all - see Dominic Raab).
Politicians often break out an 'I'm stupid' defence when out of options, but this isn't even as effective as that.
Why the United States keeps getting richer – with Britain lagging ever further behind
Britons will soon be “richer than Americans” read a BBC headline in January 2008.
Forecasters were predicting that for the first time in more than a century, GDP per head in the UK would surpass that of the US. ...[snip]... Yet by 2021, GDP per head across the pond had increased by 15pc, while Britons were only 3pc better off than in 2008. ...[snip]... While the US economy was 5pc larger in the final three months of last year than before Covid, the UK remained 0.6pc poorer. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/23/us-richer-than-uk-finance-inflation-taxes/ (£££)
The Telegraph does not quite say Britain's growth under Labour was snuffed out by Conservative governments but it does point to high tax rates under the blue team, contrasted with low tax rates and state intervention in America.
Yes, Democrat America is following Conservative economic policies, while Conservative Britain (and much of Europe) is following Labour ones. With predictable results.
So to summarise:
While Labour were in power, Britain's GDP per capita was catching up with the US's. After 13 years of Tory rule we've slipped back by 12%. And that's Labour's fault.
Right.
Also, the sky at night is white and the shining moon is black.
You think that the pre 2008 UK housing and finance bubble was sustainable and could be extrapolated forever ?
Do I need to point out what happened to the UK economy a few weeks later ?
The effect on the US economy was just as strong, yet they have bounced back whereas we have not.
Why is that? What is going on that drives this difference in outcomes?
Think of how different the choices open to this government would be if we’d had US levels of GDP growth for the last 15 years.
It really wasn't - there had been, and still is, a much greater emphasis on the financial sector in the UK than the USA.
And then the USA chose shale gas while the UK chose windmills.
Different reasons and different situations but cheaper energy gave the US economy, especially manufacturing, a boost the UK never got.
Meanwhile the UK economy is based on not letting house prices fall, increasing wealth consumption by the governing party's voter base and pouring money into the 'envy of the world'.
Erm, the U.K. investment in “windmills” has made us a world leader in the technology and the price has now plummeted. It’s the sort of long term thinking many (me included) often criticise our governments for lacking, and in this case it’s a joint Labour/Tory/LibDem/SNP success.
Better than not having them but we've still had a massive increase in energy prices.
Meanwhile we import from countries which have cheaper energy but more polluting energy.
I would say there is no large group of people who have suffered worse discrimination than the Jews, over the past two thousand years, beginning with Hadrian’s attempt at genocide.
Indeed, one explanation for the average high IQ of Ashkenazi Jews - about 115, compared to the average 100 of humanity in general - is that they suffered so much persecution and murder over the centuries only the very brightest survived. Also this prejudice against them made Jews prize education and scholarship more than most people - as they were excluded from other areas of life - another eugenic pressure on them
The over representation of Jews in Nobel prize winners is quite extraordinary, for instance
There was a time when Jews absolutely dominated basketball in the USA.
It had nothing to do with genetics & everything to do with the culture of that time & place.
Culture & the context in which that culture gets to express itself matters enormously.
Sure. But it’s daft to deny that Jewish people are generally smarter than average. Every single metric shows this. If you don’t like IQ try any other gauge
The Nobel one is amazing. Jews are 0.2% of humanity yet they have won 22% of Nobel prizes
Somewhere there is a Jewish mother tutting and saying ‘Only 22%?’.
Contra Churchill’s parochial and patronising observation about Greeks and Scots ('Of all the small nations of this earth, perhaps only the ancient Greeks surpass the Scots in their contribution to mankind'), pound for pound Jews surpass all the nations. Ubermensch one might say..
In some of his more private discussions, Hitler made the same observation. He loathed and feared the Jews BECAUSE he saw them as the ultimate rivals to Aryans (who he really believed were or should be supreme). A deep irony which few people realise
Not that private.
In Mein Kampf, Hitler explicitly states that unless fought against, the Jews will take over the world. Because they were so good at stuff.
The problem (as he saw it) was that due to Jews not being proper racists, the human race would then go extinct, eventually.
The Labour Party “investigation” is going to be one of those comedy one isn’t? The sort where the person appointed to “investigate” has to decide how long a period to wait for appearances sake before saying “this is the most cut and dried case I have ever seen”.
I hope so, I hope that Sir Keir has rid his party of the faction that thinks that only anti-black racism counts.
Leon is a complete and utter arse who should never be allowed back into the country.
I wish to wholly and unreservedly withdraw this post and disassociate myself from it. The errors arose in an initial draft being posted. But there is no excuse, and I wish to apologise for any anguish caused.
Leon is a complete and utter arse who should never be allowed back into the country.
I wish to wholly and unreservedly withdraw this post and disassociate myself from it. The errors arose in an initial draft being posted. But there is no excuse, and I wish to apologise for any anguish caused.
Young Diane made an impression on Charles Moore at Cambridge
"When I arrived at Cambridge in 1975, a nervous freshman, I remember walking with a friend past Newnham and being introduced to a third-year undergraduate. She was attractive, witty, confident, well-connected, at home in the world of the ‘glittering prizes’ (the irritating phrase which gave its name to Frederick Raphael’s novel of that time). I envied her poise. Her name was Diane Abbott. Later, making many sacrifices for her career, she changed her accent, became ‘working-class’, and had a relationship with Jeremy Corbyn, but for me she will always be Diane, the posh goddess." https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/charles-moore-s-notes-diane-the-posh-goddess-and-osborne-s-mania/
Nice to see Starmer’s been quick to take the opportunity to rid himself of another Corbynite moron. I sympathise with the constant shite she’ll have had to endure throughout her time in public life and there’s no doubt she’s been a committed servant for Labour, but she’s far too far to the left for my mushy centrism.
It’s staggering that she thought it was a good idea to submit that to a national newspaper. Totally naive, like McDonnell waving the Little Red Book in the Commons. And the apology is laughable.
I wonder if there are mental health issues at play as it is really dumb even if she believed it. Regardless needs to lose the whip and not be re-selected.
I don't know much about Newspapers but my guess is that they would generally publish any letters from well known people unless they had very good reason not to. I don't think Patricia Highsmith is a good comparison. Abbott is a serving MP.
Leon is a complete and utter arse who should never be allowed back into the country.
I don't know, I've warmed to him recently, since he's turned off most of the unthinking islamophobia of the Eadric era. His love for DeSantis, Putin and other absolute shites just because they say they are 'anti-woke' is a bit disturbing though.
Nice to see Starmer’s been quick to take the opportunity to rid himself of another Corbynite moron. I sympathise with the constant shite she’ll have had to endure throughout her time in public life and there’s no doubt she’s been a committed servant for Labour, but she’s far too far to the left for my mushy centrism.
It’s staggering that she thought it was a good idea to submit that to a national newspaper. Totally naive, like McDonnell waving the Little Red Book in the Commons. And the apology is laughable.
I wonder if there are mental health issues at play as it is really dumb even if she believed it. Regardless needs to lose the whip and not be re-selected.
There have been suggestions that DA has health problems since at least 2017.
Good to see Starmer acting so swiftly on Abbot's idiotic comments. Sad that Sunak can't act as decisively, or indeed at all, on Braverman's racist comments.
Comments
If I’m right, I expect the Tory position to stall and slip back in May and June, drop back clearly in Autumn.
For evidence, I point to how last Spring, despite everything getting thrown at Boris, he closed the gap to just 4 points in April, on the average of all the polling. This years Spring Bounce still not electorally effective as that as HY pointed out “Great, we have clawed back to merely John Major Wipe Out territory.” This slow move still leaves a huge gulf, which could be telling us so many already made up their mind to throw the Tories out of power. But the evidence is there, the Tories do seem to have good Aprils - but can’t hold it throughout rest of year.
If I’m right, and proved right or wrong in Spring Bounce theory - which I am copyrighting as Daffodil Theory (c) - in coming weeks and months, the Tories slip back, it suggests that through Sunak’s greed at wanting to remain Primeminister, the Tories will pass up their best possible result next spring, holding out throughout summer and into Autumn 2024.
More seriously, Raab and the right-wing media's response to his defenestration isn't particularly funny. The perpetuation of paranoid conspiracy theories is another step down the USA route, especially when the targets are British institutions such as the Civil Service and the BBC.
He had no choice, of course
If I call her an idiot for saying that 10,000 police officers will cost £300,000 over four years, that doesn’t make me racist or sexist.
Spielman messing up an interview is the least surprising news of the day. After all, this is a woman who couldn't define safeguarding and then accidentally suggested sexting wasn't a safeguarding issue. So saying schools are intimidated by the inspection regime but that it is a positive and affirming experience for them is par for the course.
How on earth did she ever get appointed, even with her background? A genuinely dangerous woman, not because of malice but because she's not up to it.
Contra Churchill’s parochial and patronising observation about Greeks and Scots ('Of all the small nations of this earth, perhaps only the ancient Greeks surpass the Scots in their contribution to mankind'), pound for pound Jews surpass all the nations. Ubermensch one might say..
I really dislike the "I was hacked!" excuse, which is nearly always b/s. A more meaningful excuse is: "I wrote something poorly that could be misunderstood; I did not get my meaning across." But that does not apply here.
Where between 500-1000 do you think Conservative losses will be?
Not that I think a 750 seat loss proves anything about how next years GE could go. Mike Smithsons anecdote last week about how it was only in the last two weeks of 1992 election he could sense the Tories we’re going to hang on, was very interesting.
Which again implies she is either remarkably stupid or seriously unpleasant. Or both
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12029702.abbott-denies-attack-on-nurses-was-racist/
Her daughter got nine A Stars, and one A for GCSE. She grounded her for a month, for her failure to get the extra A Star.
Keep meaning to see if it gives a meaningful signal in the polls year by year.
https://twitter.com/peston/status/1650078289925472256
She's said a number of stupid, borderline-racist stuff in the past. She's had criticism for it in the past.
Most importantly, she seems incapable of learning that it's wrong.
I am not sure about dropping back in the coming months not least because with better weather and less energy use maybe cheering people up a bit
I expect things to remain much the same with Sunak's approval ratings gradually increasing, but as was discussed in the politics show this morning and Andy Haldane (BOE) saying inflation will half this year, I expect tax cuts next spring and Sunak to take on Starmer in October 24 which will be a genuine contest
It is likely Labour will be the next government but some of the complacency and hubris from Labour supporters may be a wee bit unwise
Notwithstanding, I expect the locals to be bad for the conservatives who are very fortunate that they will be drowned out by the coronation festivities
I’m just deeply sceptical about race being a useful concept.
Yet not so odd as those who spurn the Jews yet choose a Jewish God.
Incidentally short of something pretty special Glos/Worcs looks set to be a draw, which is a bit of a shame as it's been a very entertaining match. Rain forecast about two hours after lunch.
“Initial draft” my sunburned bangkok arse
She will surely be expelled in the end
Sadly, didn't work like that.
https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1650089633567391744
I note too from obits that, aside from Milligan, Humphries also hung out with Peter Cook. All three based up in Hampstead. Imagine listening in to those three.
https://members.parliament.uk/members/commons?SearchText=&PartyId=8&Gender=Any&ForParliament=0&ShowAdvanced=true
I don't think that any of that is sufficient to win the Conservatives the next election, but I'm fairly confident they'll hold a similar number of seats to Labour in 2010.
In headline terms, I don't think Conservative losses will be that bad, since I'd expect losses to Labour to be partly offset by gains from independents and local parties, who did very well in 2019.
Which would actually make sense, as it has after all happened before.
But it's not what she has said, and her excuse is even more nonsensical than the letter.
“The dog ate my second draft” isn’t really going to cut it, surely?
Even if you think he's overzealous in exploiting the luck that comes his way, he has been a lucky general.
But that kindness is not owed to any politician dumb enough to send a letter like this one to a major UK newspaper.
Lufthansa Technik revealed a CFM Leap-1B engine made entirely out of Lego bricks with working parts
https://twitter.com/gunsnrosesgirl3/status/1649693777777287171
I realised it within a minute of reading it. So that editor wanted Abbott gone
https://twitter.com/Docstockk/status/1650074897492606976?s=20
I bet they did a little air punch when they got that letter
And then the USA chose shale gas while the UK chose windmills.
Different reasons and different situations but cheaper energy gave the US economy, especially manufacturing, a boost the UK never got.
Meanwhile the UK economy is based on not letting house prices fall, increasing wealth consumption by the governing party's voter base and pouring money into the 'envy of the world'.
On that subject though, how many really good HMCIs have there been? David Bell. Possibly Mike Tomlinson and Michael Wilshaw. The others though have all been pretty inept. Woodhead, for example, was just awful, and is a key reason why OFSTED has never quite worked as it should.
Spielman however is just the pits. A typical placewoman who seems solely to parrot lines that will play well in the Daily Mail.
https://twitter.com/William_Wragg/status/1649571213801398272
This evening, having kept quiet for a while, I was struck by the lamentable hopelessness of the Home Secretary, remembering particularly her first week or so as a Member of Parliament…
Also the ladies' winner, Hassan of the Netherlands (nee Ethiopia), nearly dropped out at the halfway mark, but hung on in there!
Only downer is the awful weather down here!
That's slightly too drastic a punishment...
As regards the investigation, I expect the investigator to find exactly the findings the Labour Party leadership want, and then get promoted to the House of Lords...
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1650078375040385024?s=20
Edit - all evidence now destroyed so no one will ever know.
It’s staggering that she thought it was a good idea to submit that to a national newspaper. Totally naive, like McDonnell waving the Little Red Book in the Commons. And the apology is laughable.
Or a template for constructive policy making.
In 1914, a 29 yo engineer with the Ministry of Agriculture put an end to centuries of village feuding over water rights in rural Japan by inventing the Circular Water Diverter, "Entobunsui". A no-tech unmanned automatic cistern that fairly divided set amounts of irrigation water...
https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1648815804295831552
Politicians often break out an 'I'm stupid' defence when out of options, but this isn't even as effective as that.
Meanwhile we import from countries which have cheaper energy but more polluting energy.
In Mein Kampf, Hitler explicitly states that unless fought against, the Jews will take over the world. Because they were so good at stuff.
The problem (as he saw it) was that due to Jews not being proper racists, the human race would then go extinct, eventually.
Oh, that post.
"When I arrived at Cambridge in 1975, a nervous freshman, I remember walking with a friend past Newnham and being introduced to a third-year undergraduate. She was attractive, witty, confident, well-connected, at home in the world of the ‘glittering prizes’ (the irritating phrase which gave its name to Frederick Raphael’s novel of that time). I envied her poise. Her name was Diane Abbott. Later, making many sacrifices for her career, she changed her accent, became ‘working-class’, and had a relationship with Jeremy Corbyn, but for me she will always be Diane, the posh goddess."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/charles-moore-s-notes-diane-the-posh-goddess-and-osborne-s-mania/
https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1650066091257872396
I flinched just watching it.
It was recorded on April 18th..
https://twitter.com/The5HbK/status/1650082079701626881