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The SNP’s rapid unscheduled disassembly continues – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    Thread of the day.
    This is not exactly new knowledge - but I didn't know about the separate event which filled the eastern Med.

    The Mediterranean Sea was dry 5M years ago

    Then, a series of MEGAFLOODS filled it in a matter of months

    How did the Med dry up?
    Why did it fill so brutally?
    How would it have felt to be there?

    https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1649108425245065219
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Driver said:

    Tres said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC is now reporting that some of Sunak's aides and advisers have been gradually going into 10 Downing Street this morning.

    Where would they normally go? Is this not just people turning up for work as normal?
    ETA scooped by sandpit.
    on a friday? Post covid?
    I think by now we're all aware that Downing Street staff worked in the office even at the height of the madness.
    At times I believe they even brought in liquid refreshment in large quantities to facilitate this round the clock effort.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,226

    Chris said:

    The BBC reports that Mark Harper has refused to speculate on when something will happen.

    I listened to his interview on Sky and it was pointless as the presenter was trying to extract Sunak's decision and reasons when Sunak has not made a decision
    Whatever Sunak's decision, back or sack, it will be awesome.
    It carries risk whatever his decision is but he will have to justify it
    Hardly. Rishi is PM, he can hire and fire as he likes. You must know the story told about Clement Attlee;

    A minister, whom he summoned to see him, was horrified to be told that the Prime Minister wanted his resignation, and asked why. “Not up to it,” said Attlee, and that was that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,033
    So Yougov forecasts a Unionist majority at the next Holyrood election. Even if the SNP stay largest party that would kill tall of indyref2 dead
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    Time for EFTA/EEA - Brexit delivered, long term rationality sustained, the least sub-optimal solution.

  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Depends on the peace negotiations, if they ever happen, surely? A guarantee not to join NATO will be one of the possible bargaining chips. Stoltenberg's statement at the moment is kind of meaningless except in terms of strengthening that potential bargaining chip.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    darkage said:

    FF43 said:

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Was it @RochdalePioneers who flagged this up ?
    Raised in the Commons.
    Teessiders are being taken for a ride.

    Public land worth £100 million was sold off for just £100.

    We need a full investigation now.

    https://twitter.com/AndyMcDonaldMP/status/1649058643914940416

    Yes, I've been talking about this for a while. Local press are in bed with Houchen and not pushing him at all. But Private Eye has done enough FOI requests to uncover almost unbelievable facts:
    £450m of public money spent decontaminating the land (STDC)
    Developers hand-picked by Houchen given 90% of new Development company for £0 a share (Teesworks Ltd)
    Teesworks Ltd buys decontaminated land for £1 an acre, with right to buy more for the same.
    Teesworks thus takes all the rent from the new tenants- c. £140m
    Teesworks awards ground works contracts to companies newly set-up by their sons.

    We spend all the money. We hand the thing over to the right people for nothing. They make all the money for £0 investment or risk. We have no scrutiny or say.
    This sounds like the murky business of regeneration in areas of low land value. It is how the land is cleaned up and the economic development facilitated whilst de-risking it for the public sector. There will be great risks and potentially great rewards for the developer. There are always these associated political fireworks.
    I think the point is there are great rewards and no risk for associates of Houchen. The risks are mostly held by the taxpayer, as decided by Houchen's party.
    Just assessing through the vague facts as outlined above, they would presumably incur significant costs in building whatever it is they are expecting to get rent out of. This is still not going to be easy. Lots of commercial development is unviable outside of certain specific high demand locations. I would guess that building anything involves some form of de-facto subsidy.

    But this isn't a 'subsidy'. It's a straight giveaway to a favoured contractor, without any profit clawback mechanism.

    It looks indefensible to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Chris said:

    The BBC reports that Mark Harper has refused to speculate on when something will happen.

    I listened to his interview on Sky and it was pointless as the presenter was trying to extract Sunak's decision and reasons when Sunak has not made a decision
    Whatever Sunak's decision, back or sack, it will be awesome.
    It carries risk whatever his decision is but he will have to justify it
    Hardly. Rishi is PM, he can hire and fire as he likes. You must know the story told about Clement Attlee;

    A minister, whom he summoned to see him, was horrified to be told that the Prime Minister wanted his resignation, and asked why. “Not up to it,” said Attlee, and that was that.
    Sunak can't give that reason. Who would he have left?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,033

    FPT:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Excitingly, my postal voting paper (last one in the period I set up during the pandemic) has arrived, and I've received zero electoral literature whatsoever. Interestingly, there are more candidates than usual for the locals, including the SDP and Reform UK.

    Unless you live in a marginal ward the parties are targeting you are unlikely to receive any more than an election address at most
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,033
    edited April 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    @techneUK
    11m
    NEW POLL: Labour lead down to 13 in Techne tracker

    Lab 44% (-1)
    Con 31% (+1)
    LibDem 10% (nc)
    Reform 5% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SNP 3% (nc)

    1,632 questioned on 19-20 April.

    +/- 12-13 April.

    Data - technetracker.co.uk

    This is the poll I was talking about in the previous thread. Below the bonnet:

    1. More 2019 Tories returning to the Tories
    2. No Labour to Tory movement
    3. Notable 2019 Labour to LibDem movemen

    Could just be noise, but if not that point 3 looks significant ahead of the locals given the nature of the seats being contested.

    The locals are reminding voters in the Blue Wall that the LibDems are still alive and kicking, with the usual piles of LD leaflets pouring in. It may be an indication of tactical voting potential at the GE. [Edit: Apols to Southam, who I see made the point on the last thread]

    I actually think the Scottish polls are less awful for the SNP than expected. What do they have to do to fall into second place?? Presumably they have a high floor of voters who are very keen on independence and aren't interested in the Greens for one reason or another. Those voters have nowhere else to go, unless they fancy the cranky-looking Alba.
    Labour are up on May 2019 though, the LDs are down, the Tories basically unchanged
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577

    Driver said:

    Tres said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC is now reporting that some of Sunak's aides and advisers have been gradually going into 10 Downing Street this morning.

    Where would they normally go? Is this not just people turning up for work as normal?
    ETA scooped by sandpit.
    on a friday? Post covid?
    I think by now we're all aware that Downing Street staff worked in the office even at the height of the madness.
    At times I believe they even brought in liquid refreshment in large quantities to facilitate this round the clock effort.
    And cake.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbq3kc29Tmg&ab_channel=mrtetley99
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502

    Scott_xP said:

    @techneUK
    11m
    NEW POLL: Labour lead down to 13 in Techne tracker

    Lab 44% (-1)
    Con 31% (+1)
    LibDem 10% (nc)
    Reform 5% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SNP 3% (nc)

    1,632 questioned on 19-20 April.

    +/- 12-13 April.

    Data - technetracker.co.uk

    This is the poll I was talking about in the previous thread. Below the bonnet:

    1. More 2019 Tories returning to the Tories
    2. No Labour to Tory movement
    3. Notable 2019 Labour to LibDem movemen

    Could just be noise, but if not that point 3 looks significant ahead of the locals given the nature of the seats being contested.

    The locals are reminding voters in the Blue Wall that the LibDems are still alive and kicking, with the usual piles of LD leaflets pouring in. It may be an indication of tactical voting potential at the GE. [Edit: Apols to Southam, who I see made the point on the last thread]

    I actually think the Scottish polls are less awful for the SNP than expected. What do they have to do to fall into second place?? Presumably they have a high floor of voters who are very keen on independence and aren't interested in the Greens for one reason or another. Those voters have nowhere else to go, unless they fancy the cranky-looking Alba.
    What would the SNP have to do to fall into second place? Good question. But a dismal augury is that in NI the dismal and wicked DUP and SF are in first places while SDLP and UU trail; and the Alliance trail too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    Nigelb said:

    Thread of the day.
    This is not exactly new knowledge - but I didn't know about the separate event which filled the eastern Med.

    The Mediterranean Sea was dry 5M years ago

    Then, a series of MEGAFLOODS filled it in a matter of months

    How did the Med dry up?
    Why did it fill so brutally?
    How would it have felt to be there?

    https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1649108425245065219

    Noah? Mind, I’d always been led to believe that that was the Black Sea!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084

    Chris said:

    The BBC reports that Mark Harper has refused to speculate on when something will happen.

    I listened to his interview on Sky and it was pointless as the presenter was trying to extract Sunak's decision and reasons when Sunak has not made a decision
    Whatever Sunak's decision, back or sack, it will be awesome.
    It carries risk whatever his decision is but he will have to justify it
    Hardly. Rishi is PM, he can hire and fire as he likes. You must know the story told about Clement Attlee;

    A minister, whom he summoned to see him, was horrified to be told that the Prime Minister wanted his resignation, and asked why. “Not up to it,” said Attlee, and that was that.
    That's not going to wash here, given how long Raab's been around. Why then appoint him in the first place ?
    And it's his party he has to justify it to. Sacking one of your few real loyalists from a senior position is potentially a problem in an administration of toxic nutters and the useless.
    The resulting reshuffle presents risks.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC reports that Mark Harper has refused to speculate on when something will happen.

    I listened to his interview on Sky and it was pointless as the presenter was trying to extract Sunak's decision and reasons when Sunak has not made a decision
    Whatever Sunak's decision, back or sack, it will be awesome.
    It carries risk whatever his decision is but he will have to justify it
    Hardly. Rishi is PM, he can hire and fire as he likes. You must know the story told about Clement Attlee;

    A minister, whom he summoned to see him, was horrified to be told that the Prime Minister wanted his resignation, and asked why. “Not up to it,” said Attlee, and that was that.
    That's not going to wash here, given how long Raab's been around. Why then appoint him in the first place ?
    And it's his party he has to justify it to. Sacking one of your few real loyalists from a senior position is potentially a problem in an administration of toxic nutters and the useless.
    The resulting reshuffle presents risks.
    Bring back Williamson?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084

    Nigelb said:

    Thread of the day.
    This is not exactly new knowledge - but I didn't know about the separate event which filled the eastern Med.

    The Mediterranean Sea was dry 5M years ago

    Then, a series of MEGAFLOODS filled it in a matter of months

    How did the Med dry up?
    Why did it fill so brutally?
    How would it have felt to be there?

    https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1649108425245065219

    Noah? Mind, I’d always been led to believe that that was the Black Sea!
    Does folk memory go back that far ?
    Seems unlikely.

    But it must have been an utterly incomprehensible event.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    FF43 said:

    Is Sunak being bullied into keeping Raab on ?

    Quite a tug-of-war, what with the civil service bullying him to sack Raab....
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    HYUFD said:

    FPT:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Excitingly, my postal voting paper (last one in the period I set up during the pandemic) has arrived, and I've received zero electoral literature whatsoever. Interestingly, there are more candidates than usual for the locals, including the SDP and Reform UK.

    Unless you live in a marginal ward the parties are targeting you are unlikely to receive any more than an election address at most
    Letter went to postal voter addresses -about 250 out of 1250. Canvassing now -with a "sorry I missed you" mini leaflet. Main leaflet goes out from Wednesday next week (a week before election) - Conservative one already here - too early IMO.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
    Putin has an army? Could have fooled me.

    It’s those old T-55s I feel sorry for. They must have hoped to see out their days, happily sitting in museums dedicated to Soviet might, as their many younger and fitter relatives got on with the dirty business of war.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC reports that Mark Harper has refused to speculate on when something will happen.

    I listened to his interview on Sky and it was pointless as the presenter was trying to extract Sunak's decision and reasons when Sunak has not made a decision
    Whatever Sunak's decision, back or sack, it will be awesome.
    It carries risk whatever his decision is but he will have to justify it
    Hardly. Rishi is PM, he can hire and fire as he likes. You must know the story told about Clement Attlee;

    A minister, whom he summoned to see him, was horrified to be told that the Prime Minister wanted his resignation, and asked why. “Not up to it,” said Attlee, and that was that.
    That's not going to wash here, given how long Raab's been around. Why then appoint him in the first place ?
    And it's his party he has to justify it to. Sacking one of your few real loyalists from a senior position is potentially a problem in an administration of toxic nutters and the useless.
    The resulting reshuffle presents risks.
    Bring back Williamson?
    I nearly said something impolite there.

    But I shall confine myself to a 'No.'
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Driver said:

    Tres said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC is now reporting that some of Sunak's aides and advisers have been gradually going into 10 Downing Street this morning.

    Where would they normally go? Is this not just people turning up for work as normal?
    ETA scooped by sandpit.
    on a friday? Post covid?
    I think by now we're all aware that Downing Street staff worked in the office even at the height of the madness.
    At times I believe they even brought in liquid refreshment in large quantities to facilitate this round the clock effort.
    I would guess some of them have already started on the liquid refreshment today.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Completely o/T I mentioned before that Jersey has arranged a pilot scheme which allows French nationals arriving on commercial services for day trips to travel with their national ID cards. It starts today and will be interesting to see if it’s a success and if in any way it can be rolled out to the UK and expanded.

    I appreciate it’s a small island that’s easier to control but a good start.

    It’s clear that if the EU and UK side want to do things to everyone’s benefit they can by negotiations rather than flinging shit at each other.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Tres said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC is now reporting that some of Sunak's aides and advisers have been gradually going into 10 Downing Street this morning.

    Where would they normally go? Is this not just people turning up for work as normal?
    ETA scooped by sandpit.
    on a friday? Post covid?
    I think by now we're all aware that Downing Street staff worked in the office even at the height of the madness.
    At times I believe they even brought in liquid refreshment in large quantities to facilitate this round the clock effort.
    I would guess some of them have already started on the liquid refreshment today.
    Will probably help whichever way it goes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    edited April 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    He's still pushing that his exam and structural reforms in education were a success. Whatever his brain power, he doesn't do recantations. No matter what the disaster.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC reports that Mark Harper has refused to speculate on when something will happen.

    I listened to his interview on Sky and it was pointless as the presenter was trying to extract Sunak's decision and reasons when Sunak has not made a decision
    Whatever Sunak's decision, back or sack, it will be awesome.
    It carries risk whatever his decision is but he will have to justify it
    Hardly. Rishi is PM, he can hire and fire as he likes. You must know the story told about Clement Attlee;

    A minister, whom he summoned to see him, was horrified to be told that the Prime Minister wanted his resignation, and asked why. “Not up to it,” said Attlee, and that was that.
    That's not going to wash here, given how long Raab's been around. Why then appoint him in the first place ?
    And it's his party he has to justify it to. Sacking one of your few real loyalists from a senior position is potentially a problem in an administration of toxic nutters and the useless.
    The resulting reshuffle presents risks.
    Bring back Williamson?
    I nearly said something impolite there.

    But I shall confine myself to a 'No.'
    Light the blue touchpaper and retire!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    Brexit, like Scottish independence, raises two different questions - which is why they are hard to handle.

    One, Do you want Brexit/Independence (existential question)
    Two, If yes, how do you want your country run (political question)

    Politicians have failed to distinguish these enough. Take the SNP. Those who support Independence will have all sorts of other views; right, left, centre, everything else. Most people are centrists. The clue is in the word.

    But the SNP is associated with a fairly narrow political spectrum. So narrow they failed to elect the best candidate for leader just recently (a bit of luck for Kate).

    Most Brexiteers are centrists too - there aren't 17 million extremists around, but it has got commandeered by factionalism.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,226

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    The other one to watch (unfortunately) is Cummings. He left himself some space to wriggle- Brexit might go wrong, but only in some branches of history. If it was a punt, it was one at good odds, that has turned out a value loser.

    And it's not his fault* that the politicians propelled into power by Brexit to run Brexit have been a bunch of fools, shysters and ne'er-do-wells.

    (* It is, at least a bit.)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    boulay said:

    Completely o/T I mentioned before that Jersey has arranged a pilot scheme which allows French nationals arriving on commercial services for day trips to travel with their national ID cards. It starts today and will be interesting to see if it’s a success and if in any way it can be rolled out to the UK and expanded.

    I appreciate it’s a small island that’s easier to control but a good start.

    It’s clear that if the EU and UK side want to do things to everyone’s benefit they can by negotiations rather than flinging shit at each other.

    I know a German ID card can get you to Turkey, for example, so shouldn't be impossible to do. It would make school trips to GB a lot more likely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    The other one to watch (unfortunately) is Cummings. He left himself some space to wriggle- Brexit might go wrong, but only in some branches of history. If it was a punt, it was one at good odds, that has turned out a value loser.

    And it's not his fault* that the politicians propelled into power by Brexit to run Brexit have been a bunch of fools, shysters and ne'er-do-wells.

    (* It is, at least a bit.)
    The only reason to watch Cummings is if you are worried your phone might mysteriously disappear.
  • Icarus said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @techneUK
    11m
    NEW POLL: Labour lead down to 13 in Techne tracker

    Lab 44% (-1)
    Con 31% (+1)
    LibDem 10% (nc)
    Reform 5% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SNP 3% (nc)

    1,632 questioned on 19-20 April.

    +/- 12-13 April.

    Data - technetracker.co.uk

    This is the poll I was talking about in the previous thread. Below the bonnet:

    1. More 2019 Tories returning to the Tories
    2. No Labour to Tory movement
    3. Notable 2019 Labour to LibDem movemen

    Could just be noise, but if not that point 3 looks significant ahead of the locals given the nature of the seats being contested.

    The locals are reminding voters in the Blue Wall that the LibDems are still alive and kicking, with the usual piles of LD leaflets pouring in. It may be an indication of tactical voting potential at the GE. [Edit: Apols to Southam, who I see made the point on the last thread]

    I actually think the Scottish polls are less awful for the SNP than expected. What do they have to do to fall into second place?? Presumably they have a high floor of voters who are very keen on independence and aren't interested in the Greens for one reason or another. Those voters have nowhere else to go, unless they fancy the cranky-looking Alba.
    Actually did some canvassing yesterday (Misterton ward, Harborough District Council) - people pleased I had come round and a lot of "Well I'm not voting Conservative". Last time result was 432 Tory, 323 Lib Dem (me) and 70 Labour. Spent time trying to convince Labour voters to support me tactically - my "sorry I missed you" leaflet has the inevitable dodgy bar chart.
    Good luck!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    US Taliban, contd.

    Today the Texas Senate passed a bill to force every public school classroom in the state to prominently display a copy of the Ten Commandments.

    They also passed a bill to set prayer and bible reading times during the school day.

    https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1649231594719248392
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,299
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
    Putin has an army? Could have fooled me.

    It’s those old T-55s I feel sorry for. They must have hoped to see out their days, happily sitting in museums dedicated to Soviet might, as their many younger and fitter relatives got on with the dirty business of war.
    I feel for the collectors - there is going be a big gap in their collections of USSR tanks.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    It would be someone who hates having full employment and pay rises for the working class, especially the northern working class.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    FF43 said:

    Not close to the SNP, but think it's more likely they will sort themselves out than collapse. These are issues of governance, which are fixable. There's no real alternative to the SNP for a constituency that makes up about half of Scots.

    These are issues of party finance, which are not fixable.

    Not without anther lottery winner anyway.
    And possible criminality at an institutional level. There will always be those that want to back a party, ideology or individual whatever one learns of them (there are still people that idolise Boris Johnson and Alex Salmond ffs!), but eventually the silent majority that represents common sense quietly turns away.

    I would be astonished if the vast majority of decent minded Scottish people do not now start to seriously question full "independence" as a philosophy, if main party that espouses it, the SNP, is shown to be institutionally corrupt and the alternative is led my a man who was described by his QC as a "bully and sex-pest".
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,055
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    FPT

    Good morning

    Sunak more popular in Scotland than Yousaf !!!!!


    https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1649151205371703304?t=ADa4_-H3vBdhYlKoDYP_Cg&s=19


    This is fake news, leader ratings are always reported net, not gross.

    By that metric Yousaf leads.
    A misleading practice that I have been railing against for some time.
    Sir John Curtice disagrees with you.

    Now whose judgment am I going to trust on this? You or him?
    You complained that only giving the gross approval figure is misleading information because it's incomplete.

    I agree.

    But so is only giving the net figure. You need both to get a full picture.

    A net rating of zero at 20-20 with 60% DK is not the same as a net rating of zero at 50-50 with 0% DK.

    And if John Curtice disagrees with that, then with the greatest of respect, he's wrong.
    A lot of “polling experts” (no idea if this applies to him) seem to have limited grasp of stats. They tend to rely on old truisms which will mostly be ok, until the data is telling you something novel.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,299

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
    "inconceivable"

    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    skybet still offering (under specials) SNP to get under 20 general election seats at 8/1 and under 10 at 20/1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,660
    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    Simon Kuper is the archetypal citizen of nowhere and not an objective commentator on this subject.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,055

    Driver said:

    Tres said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC is now reporting that some of Sunak's aides and advisers have been gradually going into 10 Downing Street this morning.

    Where would they normally go? Is this not just people turning up for work as normal?
    ETA scooped by sandpit.
    on a friday? Post covid?
    I think by now we're all aware that Downing Street staff worked in the office even at the height of the madness.
    At times I believe they even brought in liquid refreshment in large quantities to facilitate this round the clock effort.
    I was reaching for an “on the job” joke, but decided it was a bit early.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,299

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    It would be someone who hates having full employment and pay rises for the working class, especially the northern working class.
    No, it will be someone who recognises that they need to be sacrificed.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,055
    edited April 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    The most interesting thing about this narrative is that many who were “remainers” still don’t understand that wanting Brexit was never transactional in the sense of “x will be better immediately”. Being out of europe is enough for most of us. Any change will take time as we diverge, and will be more about the EU taking choices we will never follow. The “wrong in hindsight” numbers in polling is just a proxy for government approval, this government being associated with Brexit.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    edited April 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Russia has their own version of “rapid unscheduled disassembly” today.

    Describing a bomb that fell off an Su-34 plane and exploded in the Russian town of Belegrod, the military spokesman said that “an abnormal descent of an aircraft munition” took place.

    They bombed their own city!
    https://www.newsweek.com/russia-bomb-belgorod-explosion-blast-fighter-jet-1795794

    What I find interesting about this is how quickly the Russians have come out and admitted that they did it themselves. They could've used the incident to raise tensions even further. Shows how nervous they are in my view.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited April 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    It would be someone who hates having full employment and pay rises for the working class, especially the northern working class.
    No, it will be someone who recognises that they need to be sacrificed.
    Someone who can tell them that of course it’s in their best interest, for minimum wage to be maximum wage, for 10 people applying for any job, and for half the job adverts to be written in Polish.

    Just as well they can’t vote. Oh…
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Nigelb said:

    US Taliban, contd.

    Today the Texas Senate passed a bill to force every public school classroom in the state to prominently display a copy of the Ten Commandments.

    They also passed a bill to set prayer and bible reading times during the school day.

    https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1649231594719248392

    I am not sure whether the law has been changed (some of our education experts will no doubt know), but it used to be a requirement for all UK schools to have "daily worship", which normally took the form of assembly. My bog-standard comp (with emphasis on the bog) used to have assembly and we would sing some dreary dirge of a hymn, normally by John Wesley or other tub thumping evangelical zealot from the previous century.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    Simon Kuper is the archetypal citizen of nowhere and not an objective commentator on this subject.
    It is amusing seeing Remain fanatics who didn't understand (nor tried to understand) Brexit then and still don't understand it now trying to project their delusions onto Brexit supporters. They will go to their graves bitter and twisted. (Though, to be reasonable, hopefully in great old age like all of us)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
    Putin has an army? Could have fooled me.

    It’s those old T-55s I feel sorry for. They must have hoped to see out their days, happily sitting in museums dedicated to Soviet might, as their many younger and fitter relatives got on with the dirty business of war.
    I feel for the collectors - there is going be a big gap in their collections of USSR tanks.
    Yes, but imagine; the market for spare parts must be immense.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,642
    edited April 2023
    Raab resigns.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Icarus said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @techneUK
    11m
    NEW POLL: Labour lead down to 13 in Techne tracker

    Lab 44% (-1)
    Con 31% (+1)
    LibDem 10% (nc)
    Reform 5% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SNP 3% (nc)

    1,632 questioned on 19-20 April.

    +/- 12-13 April.

    Data - technetracker.co.uk

    This is the poll I was talking about in the previous thread. Below the bonnet:

    1. More 2019 Tories returning to the Tories
    2. No Labour to Tory movement
    3. Notable 2019 Labour to LibDem movemen

    Could just be noise, but if not that point 3 looks significant ahead of the locals given the nature of the seats being contested.

    The locals are reminding voters in the Blue Wall that the LibDems are still alive and kicking, with the usual piles of LD leaflets pouring in. It may be an indication of tactical voting potential at the GE. [Edit: Apols to Southam, who I see made the point on the last thread]

    I actually think the Scottish polls are less awful for the SNP than expected. What do they have to do to fall into second place?? Presumably they have a high floor of voters who are very keen on independence and aren't interested in the Greens for one reason or another. Those voters have nowhere else to go, unless they fancy the cranky-looking Alba.
    Actually did some canvassing yesterday (Misterton ward, Harborough District Council) - people pleased I had come round and a lot of "Well I'm not voting Conservative". Last time result was 432 Tory, 323 Lib Dem (me) and 70 Labour. Spent time trying to convince Labour voters to support me tactically - my "sorry I missed you" leaflet has the inevitable dodgy bar chart.
    Good luck!!!
    Looks like @Icarus will be flying high in Misterton this time 👍
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084

    Nigelb said:

    US Taliban, contd.

    Today the Texas Senate passed a bill to force every public school classroom in the state to prominently display a copy of the Ten Commandments.

    They also passed a bill to set prayer and bible reading times during the school day.

    https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1649231594719248392

    I am not sure whether the law has been changed (some of our education experts will no doubt know), but it used to be a requirement for all UK schools to have "daily worship", which normally took the form of assembly. My bog-standard comp (with emphasis on the bog) used to have assembly and we would sing some dreary dirge of a hymn, normally by John Wesley or other tub thumping evangelical zealot from the previous century.
    The difference is that it's supposed to be constitutionally prohibited in the US.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    The other one to watch (unfortunately) is Cummings. He left himself some space to wriggle- Brexit might go wrong, but only in some branches of history. If it was a punt, it was one at good odds, that has turned out a value loser.

    And it's not his fault* that the politicians propelled into power by Brexit to run Brexit have been a bunch of fools, shysters and ne'er-do-wells.

    (* It is, at least a bit.)
    The name Cummings and the word punt in the same paragraph might present a challenge for Dr Spooner or Jim Naughtie.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344

    FF43 said:

    Not close to the SNP, but think it's more likely they will sort themselves out than collapse. These are issues of governance, which are fixable. There's no real alternative to the SNP for a constituency that makes up about half of Scots.

    These are issues of party finance, which are not fixable.

    Not without anther lottery winner anyway.
    And possible criminality at an institutional level. There will always be those that want to back a party, ideology or individual whatever one learns of them (there are still people that idolise Boris Johnson and Alex Salmond ffs!), but eventually the silent majority that represents common sense quietly turns away.

    I would be astonished if the vast majority of decent minded Scottish people do not now start to seriously question full "independence" as a philosophy, if main party that espouses it, the SNP, is shown to be institutionally corrupt and the alternative is led my a man who was described by his QC as a "bully and sex-pest".
    Just what you expect from a dumb cluck, same brain brain again and you would be dangerous loser.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    It would be someone who hates having full employment and pay rises for the working class, especially the northern working class.
    So that would be the government, being the largest employer in the country and unwilling to fund pay rises?
  • Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    It would be someone who hates having full employment and pay rises for the working class, especially the northern working class.
    It's funny, cos beyond a couple of notable exceptions, pretty much all the northern working class people I talk to - ie pretty much everyone I talk to everyday - are really concerned about the price of everything rising and their wages not keeping up.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited April 2023

    Raab resigns.

    RP and SO please explain...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465

    skybet still offering (under specials) SNP to get under 20 general election seats at 8/1 and under 10 at 20/1

    Odds aren't good enough for me.

    Labour Minority at 5/1 is interesting.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,376

    Raab resigns.

    Shows who dishonourable he is - because he should have resigned when the allegations appeared.

    Granted he didn't want to be sacked but that would at least have given him some integrity. Now it looks like he was merely hoping not to be found out.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    "LONDON — Ambassadors from all 27 EU countries will gather at a secret location in England later this month for private talks about the post-Brexit relationship."

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ambassadors-to-uk-to-discuss-post-brexit-relation-on-away-day-delegation-member-states-uk-think-tanks/

    Preparations for the first 5 year review of the TCA beginning?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited April 2023

    Raab resigns.

    Saved Rishi Sunak sacking him
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    The most interesting thing about this narrative is that many who were “remainers” still don’t understand that wanting Brexit was never transactional in the sense of “x will be better immediately”. Being out of europe is enough for most of us. Any change will take time as we diverge, and will be more about the EU taking choices we will never follow. The “wrong in hindsight” numbers in polling is just a proxy for government approval, this government being associated with Brexit.
    You could as well say the actual referendum vote was just a proxy for government approval.

    But if a government not associated with Brexit comes to power how will the "wrong in hindsight" numbers change?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,299
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    It would be someone who hates having full employment and pay rises for the working class, especially the northern working class.
    No, it will be someone who recognises that they need to be sacrificed.
    Someone who can tell them that of course it’s in their best interest, for minimum wage to be maximum wage, for 10 people applying for any job, and for half the job adverts to be written in Polish.

    Just as well they can’t vote. Oh…
    It's also conditions. I find it quite hilarious to hear the comments from middle class employers discovering that their employees are demanding to be treated better than cattle.

    It reminds me of a building project I was involved with, way back. The arrogant arsehole treated the workforce like shit. Then they (the Polish blokes) discovered the guy was Tankie.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Raab resigns.

    Susan Acland-Hood and Simon Case are still there.

    I wonder how it feels to be even more dishonourable than Dominic Raab?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465
    eek said:

    Raab resigns.

    Shows who dishonourable he is - because he should have resigned when the allegations appeared.

    Granted he didn't want to be sacked but that would at least have given him some integrity. Now it looks like he was merely hoping not to be found out.
    Took you all of 3 minutes to change your spin line - you must have had a few ready.
  • First Patel, now Raab. why are Brexiteers such bullying pricks?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,055
    carnforth said:

    "LONDON — Ambassadors from all 27 EU countries will gather at a secret location in England later this month for private talks about the post-Brexit relationship."

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ambassadors-to-uk-to-discuss-post-brexit-relation-on-away-day-delegation-member-states-uk-think-tanks/

    Preparations for the first 5 year review of the TCA beginning?

    By “secret” do they mean “Doris in FCO Protocol hasn’t booked it yet but it’ll probably be Lancaster House”?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    Not close to the SNP, but think it's more likely they will sort themselves out than collapse. These are issues of governance, which are fixable. There's no real alternative to the SNP for a constituency that makes up about half of Scots.

    These are issues of party finance, which are not fixable.

    Not without anther lottery winner anyway.
    And possible criminality at an institutional level. There will always be those that want to back a party, ideology or individual whatever one learns of them (there are still people that idolise Boris Johnson and Alex Salmond ffs!), but eventually the silent majority that represents common sense quietly turns away.

    I would be astonished if the vast majority of decent minded Scottish people do not now start to seriously question full "independence" as a philosophy, if main party that espouses it, the SNP, is shown to be institutionally corrupt and the alternative is led my a man who was described by his QC as a "bully and sex-pest".
    Just what you expect from a dumb cluck, same brain brain again and you would be dangerous loser.
    Lol. Baldrick has entered the room with his playground insults.

    How long did it take you to construct your anger filled rant Mr. Thicky, only for it still to be completely unintelligible?

    Go back to the University of Life and ask for a refund on your pass degree, or alternatively get yourself a brain brain (sic) implant. The other option is to carry on crying into your jackboots about the inability of your much beloved Fuhrer to persuade the Scottish master race of their need for lebensraum.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    US Taliban, contd.

    Today the Texas Senate passed a bill to force every public school classroom in the state to prominently display a copy of the Ten Commandments.

    They also passed a bill to set prayer and bible reading times during the school day.

    https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1649231594719248392

    I am not sure whether the law has been changed (some of our education experts will no doubt know), but it used to be a requirement for all UK schools to have "daily worship", which normally took the form of assembly. My bog-standard comp (with emphasis on the bog) used to have assembly and we would sing some dreary dirge of a hymn, normally by John Wesley or other tub thumping evangelical zealot from the previous century.
    The difference is that it's supposed to be constitutionally prohibited in the US.
    Fair point
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    Simon Kuper is the archetypal citizen of nowhere and not an objective commentator on this subject.
    Like Dan Hannan you mean?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,299

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    Not close to the SNP, but think it's more likely they will sort themselves out than collapse. These are issues of governance, which are fixable. There's no real alternative to the SNP for a constituency that makes up about half of Scots.

    These are issues of party finance, which are not fixable.

    Not without anther lottery winner anyway.
    And possible criminality at an institutional level. There will always be those that want to back a party, ideology or individual whatever one learns of them (there are still people that idolise Boris Johnson and Alex Salmond ffs!), but eventually the silent majority that represents common sense quietly turns away.

    I would be astonished if the vast majority of decent minded Scottish people do not now start to seriously question full "independence" as a philosophy, if main party that espouses it, the SNP, is shown to be institutionally corrupt and the alternative is led my a man who was described by his QC as a "bully and sex-pest".
    Just what you expect from a dumb cluck, same brain brain again and you would be dangerous loser.
    Lol. Baldrick has entered the room with his playground insults.

    How long did it take you to construct your anger filled rant Mr. Thicky, only for it still to be completely unintelligible?

    Go back to the University of Life and ask for a refund on your pass degree, or alternatively get yourself a brain brain (sic) implant. The other option is to carry on crying into your jackboots about the inability of your much beloved Fuhrer to persuade the Scottish master race of their need for lebensraum.
    Could you two just get a luxury camper van and do a holiday together?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,299
    ydoethur said:

    Raab resigns.

    Susan Acland-Hood and Simon Case are still there.

    I wonder how it feels to be even more dishonourable than Dominic Raab?
    I guess the spreadsheet result was - "Mess Webley"
  • ydoethur said:

    First Patel, now Raab. why are Brexiteers such bullying pricks?

    TBF, Gordon Brown was even worse and he was a Remainer.

    'Why are people in power such bullying pricks?' would be a more interesting psychological study.
    He backed Leaving the EC in 1983 which makes him a Brexiteer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
    "inconceivable"

    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
    You need to say it with a Lear.

    'Sir, I cannot conceive of you.'
    'Sir, this young one's mother could.'
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    GIN1138 said:

    First Patel, now Raab. why are Brexiteers such bullying pricks?

    Keith Vaz and John Bercow were Remain and have faced significant bullying accusations too. ;)
    Not to mention one James Gordon Brown.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    I am not at all surprised re Raab, he looks the kind.

    This Government has got to go.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,299
    ydoethur said:

    First Patel, now Raab. why are Brexiteers such bullying pricks?

    TBF, Gordon Brown was even worse and he was a Remainer.

    'Why are people in power such bullying pricks?' would be a more interesting psychological study.
    Because it is, sadly, how you Win The Game.

    For quite a lot of Games.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    ydoethur said:

    First Patel, now Raab. why are Brexiteers such bullying pricks?

    TBF, Gordon Brown was even worse and he was a Remainer.

    'Why are people in power such bullying pricks?' would be a more interesting psychological study.
    Because it is, sadly, how you Win The Game.

    For quite a lot of Games.
    This is starting to look like the Hunger Games.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    The most interesting thing about this narrative is that many who were “remainers” still don’t understand that wanting Brexit was never transactional in the sense of “x will be better immediately”. Being out of europe is enough for most of us. Any change will take time as we diverge, and will be more about the EU taking choices we will never follow. The “wrong in hindsight” numbers in polling is just a proxy for government approval, this government being associated with Brexit.
    You're right, I strongly recall the Vote Leave campaign arguing that Brexit would make people poorer but it was worth it.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    Not close to the SNP, but think it's more likely they will sort themselves out than collapse. These are issues of governance, which are fixable. There's no real alternative to the SNP for a constituency that makes up about half of Scots.

    These are issues of party finance, which are not fixable.

    Not without anther lottery winner anyway.
    And possible criminality at an institutional level. There will always be those that want to back a party, ideology or individual whatever one learns of them (there are still people that idolise Boris Johnson and Alex Salmond ffs!), but eventually the silent majority that represents common sense quietly turns away.

    I would be astonished if the vast majority of decent minded Scottish people do not now start to seriously question full "independence" as a philosophy, if main party that espouses it, the SNP, is shown to be institutionally corrupt and the alternative is led my a man who was described by his QC as a "bully and sex-pest".
    Just what you expect from a dumb cluck, same brain brain again and you would be dangerous loser.
    Lol. Baldrick has entered the room with his playground insults.

    How long did it take you to construct your anger filled rant Mr. Thicky, only for it still to be completely unintelligible?

    Go back to the University of Life and ask for a refund on your pass degree, or alternatively get yourself a brain brain (sic) implant. The other option is to carry on crying into your jackboots about the inability of your much beloved Fuhrer to persuade the Scottish master race of their need for lebensraum.
    Could you two just get a luxury camper van and do a holiday together?
    Sorry, I don't do caravans or such like, though Baldrick probably does. It could be quite amusing though, I have to admit.

    For the record, I only ever respond to his rudeness in kind because many on here seem afraid to do so. He is a small brained anger filled bully, and I have always strongly disliked bullies.

    Hence why I am happy Raab has resigned.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Raab sacked
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
    "inconceivable"

    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
    Means can't have babies, innit....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    the EU - an organisation which, despite its faults, seems to actually care about its people and their wellbeing

    Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited April 2023
    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KuperSimon
    Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT

    https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826

    I reckon Gove, who unlike most Brexiteers isn't stupid, may be the first major Vote Leave figure to recant.
    The most interesting thing about this narrative is that many who were “remainers” still don’t understand that wanting Brexit was never transactional in the sense of “x will be better immediately”. Being out of europe is enough for most of us. Any change will take time as we diverge, and will be more about the EU taking choices we will never follow. The “wrong in hindsight” numbers in polling is just a proxy for government approval, this government being associated with Brexit.
    From talking to a lot of people on doorsteps, and from the reams of reporting and polling since, I don't think there were many of you who were doing this on principle and didn't want anything more than that.

    At least three easy to identify leave voter types:
    1 Singapore-on-Thames. Leave, deregulate, sell off. Make more £profit from a workforce now leaner and more hungry (literally)
    2 Mercantilists. Leave, remove trading barriers like CAP/CFP, make more £profit with an easier life
    3 People's Republic of Britain. Leave, get rid of foreign workers taking our jobs and our benefits and clogging up schools and hospitals. Get paid more.

    None of them are happy because the moon on a stick they were promised has not been delivered. 1 and 2 because there is now more red tape and barriers than ever, 3 because despite a brief wage flurry they feel poorer than ever.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    I guess that's JohnOs peerage gone out of the window then? 😢
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,842
    To be honest after both your Chief Exec and your Treasurer have resigned and been interviewed under arrest l can’t help help feeling that the SNP would take this result in a heartbeat.

    The nationalist vote is, in large part, sticking with them through thick, thin and bloody disastrous. It will do that for as long as there is not a viable alternative and Alba is not that alternative. Others may become available but not yet.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
    "inconceivable"

    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
    Means can't have babies, innit....
    It's my right to have babies if I want them...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,055
    No way to take unbiased view on Raab’s letter until we see the report (through Kang will take a biased view). Either way that’s a “resign now and you’ll be back in 6 months in the reshuffle” letter.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534
    Nigelb said:

    US Taliban, contd.

    Today the Texas Senate passed a bill to force every public school classroom in the state to prominently display a copy of the Ten Commandments.

    They also passed a bill to set prayer and bible reading times during the school day.

    https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1649231594719248392

    Isn't this in breach of the US Constitution?

    The 1st Amendment states that "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof."

    Whilst the 14th amendment states that all constitutional laws applying to the Federal Government also apply to the State legislatures.

    This was upheld by Supreme Court decisions in 1947, 1962 (explicitly banning school prayers), 1968 (preventing the compulsory teaching of religious beliefs) and numerous other occasions resulting in the establishment of the 'Lemon' Test.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    Not close to the SNP, but think it's more likely they will sort themselves out than collapse. These are issues of governance, which are fixable. There's no real alternative to the SNP for a constituency that makes up about half of Scots.

    These are issues of party finance, which are not fixable.

    Not without anther lottery winner anyway.
    And possible criminality at an institutional level. There will always be those that want to back a party, ideology or individual whatever one learns of them (there are still people that idolise Boris Johnson and Alex Salmond ffs!), but eventually the silent majority that represents common sense quietly turns away.

    I would be astonished if the vast majority of decent minded Scottish people do not now start to seriously question full "independence" as a philosophy, if main party that espouses it, the SNP, is shown to be institutionally corrupt and the alternative is led my a man who was described by his QC as a "bully and sex-pest".
    Just what you expect from a dumb cluck, same brain brain again and you would be dangerous loser.
    Lol. Baldrick has entered the room with his playground insults.

    How long did it take you to construct your anger filled rant Mr. Thicky, only for it still to be completely unintelligible?

    Go back to the University of Life and ask for a refund on your pass degree, or alternatively get yourself a brain brain (sic) implant. The other option is to carry on crying into your jackboots about the inability of your much beloved Fuhrer to persuade the Scottish master race of their need for lebensraum.
    Could you two just get a luxury camper van and do a holiday together?
    Sorry, I don't do caravans or such like, though Baldrick probably does. It could be quite amusing though, I have to admit.

    For the record, I only ever respond to his rudeness in kind because many on here seem afraid to do so. He is a small brained anger filled bully, and I have always strongly disliked bullies.

    Hence why I am happy Raab has resigned.
    I doubt people are afraid. It just gets quickly boring. You both need to come up with more original insults.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534

    algarkirk said:

    All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

    https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389

    This is not a story unless it has a clear timescale and process. At the moment it is perfectly possible that in due time Ukraine will have a 'government' which does not intend to apply to join NATO. So at the moment the question is NATO's unambiguous commitment to making sure that does not occur. This is not in place. This is called displacement or substitution activity, not news.
    Hmmmm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/

    When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..

    Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.

    That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
    Are you telling Putin that a government of his puppets is inconceivable? With his army?

    Don't stand near any high windows.
    "inconceivable"

    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
    Means can't have babies, innit....
    It's my right to have babies if I want them...
    But you haven't got a womb Loretta!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Does Raab resigning give an excuse not to publish the report?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Dialup said:

    I am not at all surprised re Raab, he looks the kind.

    Come over here and say that.


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607
    Driver said:

    the EU - an organisation which, despite its faults, seems to actually care about its people and their wellbeing

    Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
    The EU does care about its people.

    Its people being the corrupt politicians and self serving bureaucrats that are in charge of it.
  • Nigelb said:

    US Taliban, contd.

    Today the Texas Senate passed a bill to force every public school classroom in the state to prominently display a copy of the Ten Commandments.

    They also passed a bill to set prayer and bible reading times during the school day.

    https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1649231594719248392

    Isn't this in breach of the US Constitution?

    The 1st Amendment states that "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof."

    Whilst the 14th amendment states that all constitutional laws applying to the Federal Government also apply to the State legislatures.

    This was upheld by Supreme Court decisions in 1947, 1962 (explicitly banning school prayers), 1968 (preventing the compulsory teaching of religious beliefs) and numerous other occasions resulting in the establishment of the 'Lemon' Test.
    It is but this a SCOTUS with GOP hacks in the majority.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2023

    darkage said:

    FF43 said:

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Was it @RochdalePioneers who flagged this up ?
    Raised in the Commons.
    Teessiders are being taken for a ride.

    Public land worth £100 million was sold off for just £100.

    We need a full investigation now.

    https://twitter.com/AndyMcDonaldMP/status/1649058643914940416

    Yes, I've been talking about this for a while. Local press are in bed with Houchen and not pushing him at all. But Private Eye has done enough FOI requests to uncover almost unbelievable facts:
    £450m of public money spent decontaminating the land (STDC)
    Developers hand-picked by Houchen given 90% of new Development company for £0 a share (Teesworks Ltd)
    Teesworks Ltd buys decontaminated land for £1 an acre, with right to buy more for the same.
    Teesworks thus takes all the rent from the new tenants- c. £140m
    Teesworks awards ground works contracts to companies newly set-up by their sons.

    We spend all the money. We hand the thing over to the right people for nothing. They make all the money for £0 investment or risk. We have no scrutiny or say.
    This sounds like the murky business of regeneration in areas of low land value. It is how the land is cleaned up and the economic development facilitated whilst de-risking it for the public sector. There will be great risks and potentially great rewards for the developer. There are always these associated political fireworks.
    I think the point is there are great rewards and no risk for associates of Houchen. The risks are mostly held by the taxpayer, as decided by Houchen's party.
    Just assessing through the vague facts as outlined above, they would presumably incur significant costs in building whatever it is they are expecting to get rent out of. This is still not going to be easy. Lots of commercial development is unviable outside of certain specific high demand locations. I would guess that building anything involves some form of de-facto subsidy.

    Is this in any way comparable to houses being sold for £1 with an expectation that the purchasers renovate at their own cost?
    Based on the details in the Private Eye, no, it isn't in anyway comparable. The property is being sold for pennies with the sellers, ie.the taxpayer, taking on the cost of renovation.
    darkage said:

    FF43 said:

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Was it @RochdalePioneers who flagged this up ?
    Raised in the Commons.
    Teessiders are being taken for a ride.

    Public land worth £100 million was sold off for just £100.

    We need a full investigation now.

    https://twitter.com/AndyMcDonaldMP/status/1649058643914940416

    Yes, I've been talking about this for a while. Local press are in bed with Houchen and not pushing him at all. But Private Eye has done enough FOI requests to uncover almost unbelievable facts:
    £450m of public money spent decontaminating the land (STDC)
    Developers hand-picked by Houchen given 90% of new Development company for £0 a share (Teesworks Ltd)
    Teesworks Ltd buys decontaminated land for £1 an acre, with right to buy more for the same.
    Teesworks thus takes all the rent from the new tenants- c. £140m
    Teesworks awards ground works contracts to companies newly set-up by their sons.

    We spend all the money. We hand the thing over to the right people for nothing. They make all the money for £0 investment or risk. We have no scrutiny or say.
    This sounds like the murky business of regeneration in areas of low land value. It is how the land is cleaned up and the economic development facilitated whilst de-risking it for the public sector. There will be great risks and potentially great rewards for the developer. There are always these associated political fireworks.
    I think the point is there are great rewards and no risk for associates of Houchen. The risks are mostly held by the taxpayer, as decided by Houchen's party.
    Just assessing through the vague facts as outlined above, they would presumably incur significant costs in building whatever it is they are expecting to get rent out of. This is still not going to be easy. Lots of commercial development is unviable outside of certain specific high demand locations. I would guess that building anything involves some form of de-facto subsidy.

    Another government body, the Teesside Development Corporation, take on the development risks, not the 90% owners of the land, Houchen's friends.

    The Private Eye assertions are anything but vague. t
This discussion has been closed.