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The SNP’s rapid unscheduled disassembly continues – politicalbetting.com
The SNP’s rapid unscheduled disassembly continues – politicalbetting.com
Our first Holyrood voting intention poll since Humza Yousaf became FM shows the SNP regional vote is the lowest since the 2014 indy referendum, and the constituency vote is the joint-lowestLabour's constituency vote is the highest since the referendumhttps://t.co/slB3cfES2k https://t.co/jNFCtm7dMf
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This Conservative Party has no interest in ethics and morality, so the lack of a firing yesterday says nothing at all about the report. Raab won't quit. Sunak won't fire him. Ministers defend him. Incredulity. Then aggrieved civil servants quit and start talking. Part of the report leaks, directly contradicting ministerial statements. More incredulity. then Raab is fired. Ministers claim they have acted swiftly. Even more incredulity.
Give it time.
This is fake news, leader ratings are always reported net, not gross.
By that metric Yousaf leads.
Edit - if ever I get round to writing my book on airships in the 1920s, that's what I'm calling it.
Good morning, everyone.
Excitingly, my postal voting paper (last one in the period I set up during the pandemic) has arrived, and I've received zero electoral literature whatsoever. Interestingly, there are more candidates than usual for the locals, including the SDP and Reform UK.
Well, grossly incompetent, anyway.
11m
NEW POLL: Labour lead down to 13 in Techne tracker
Lab 44% (-1)
Con 31% (+1)
LibDem 10% (nc)
Reform 5% (-1)
Green 5% (+1)
SNP 3% (nc)
1,632 questioned on 19-20 April.
+/- 12-13 April.
Data - technetracker.co.uk
It is a bizarre turn of events where the organisers of an event that raises a huge amount of money for charity are meeting with a fringe group who are threatening to disrupt it. Said fringe group are setting their terms for not disrupting it.
Little short of blackmail.
"Just Stop Oil said they had met with London Marathon representatives on Wednesday and asked them to "issue a statement in support of our demand to end new oil and gas".
In a statement they said: "The two parties have agreed to continue to discuss arrangements for the London Marathon, the climate crisis and the need to end new oil and gas."
https://news.sky.com/story/just-stop-oil-refuses-to-rule-out-london-marathon-disruption-amid-weekend-of-protests-12861768
Alba could be that, other forces can emerge too.
For many years Labour thought there was no alternative to them for the Red Wall so neglected it. They learnt the hard way there was.
The gloss is coming off the SNP paint job. Suggestions of rust beneath. But until we see the rust, we won't know just how bad this gets.
Three scenarios:
1. Rust averted. Yousaf claims to be a sadder and wiser engine, and the SNP get back to measured decline through growing incompetence and a lack of ideas. Slow decline.
2. Bad things happen to the SNP but their ultras insist its all a conspiracy. Voters and potentially some representatives jump ship to the other two nationalist parties, diluting the vote. Infighting. Rapid decline.
3. The SNP implodes completely. Mega arrests and police charges of Very Bad Things. Major cash crisis. Forbes and the other one announce the formation of a successor party, despite earlier misgivings members and representatives decide propriety outweights concerns about fundamentalism, and SNP2 largely picks up where the SNP was. Yousless and the most hardcore cling to the remains as some SDP or UKIP members did.
The Greens and Alba are nowhere, so the decoupling of the main party from the cause is a real problem for indy supporters.
https://www.reformparty.uk/reformuk_sdp_general_election_pact
A sort of SDP-Not Very Liberal Alliance.
Their headline goals may be cleaning up the planet but their actions sure as hell don't match their words.
I agree that there is no alternative to the SNP. Green is a very different beast. And the Salmond Ego Bus would make a lot of people gip - and still not win any seats.
The alternative to the SNP is a new SNP party. Must be some business people in Scotland susceptible to giving launch funding, especially if the SNP does start a rapid collapse.
1. More 2019 Tories returning to the Tories
2. No Labour to Tory movement
3. Notable 2019 Labour to LibDem movemen
Could just be noise, but if not that point 3 looks significant ahead of the locals given the nature of the seats being contested.
Personally I see an opportunity for the Lib Dems here if we were braver, but we won’t take it.
In November 2018 the SDP gained its first and only European parliamentarian when Patrick O'Flynn, Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for East of England, defected from the UK Independence Party. He served in the European Parliament until 1 July 2019. Prominent members include journalists Rod Liddle and Giles Fraser.
Perhaps it will be Barry Hearn and hundreds of civil lawsuits, perhaps it will be the Silverstone track marshals properly roughing them up, or perhaps one day the police will be too slow to stop a genuine lynch mob in a public place.
So what if the entire First Division of Civil Servants resigned? There are a whole raft of PB loyalists who could take up the slack if they could handle the pay cut.
Raised in the Commons.
Teessiders are being taken for a ride.
Public land worth £100 million was sold off for just £100.
We need a full investigation now.
https://twitter.com/AndyMcDonaldMP/status/1649058643914940416
The master plan is a federal UK, with each of the 4 home nations largely free to organise themselves as they see fit. Scotland would be master of its own destiny within a much looser UK. As the independence plan is the same but replace UK with EU, I think we could appeal to more moderate nationalists.
Intensely political, with an audited body having a large and vocal following. If you screw up the audit in either direction your company will get hammered as well. If you do your job well, you may well be hammered.
To do the audit from zero in 6 weeks would be a big ask in a more normal situation.
https://news.sky.com/story/nato-allies-agree-ukraine-will-become-member-12862389
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/21/second-woman-claims-she-was-raped-by-colleagues-while-working-at-cbi
£450m of public money spent decontaminating the land (STDC)
Developers hand-picked by Houchen given 90% of new Development company for £0 a share (Teesworks Ltd)
Teesworks Ltd buys decontaminated land for £1 an acre, with right to buy more for the same.
Teesworks thus takes all the rent from the new tenants- c. £140m
Teesworks awards ground works contracts to companies newly set-up by their sons.
We spend all the money. We hand the thing over to the right people for nothing. They make all the money for £0 investment or risk. We have no scrutiny or say.
This smells of the BBC trying to make the news, rather than report it.
Putin must be incandescent.
I wonder if it might actually cause him to have a stroke? That would be the ultimate act of NATO aggression I suppose...
13s
Mark Harper: Zahawi + Williamson quit "because the Prime Minister has high standards".
Says "he may well have questions" to ask on the Raab report, hinting that's the reason it's not yet published.
But to whom would he direct those Qs? Raab? The alleged victims? Tolley?
Lab+LD+Green on 59. Looks like lowest SNP number for a very long time.
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1649318101882642438
This is because there is no other news. There is no war in Ukraine; Sudan is at peace; millions have not died in Congo; the USA has no fascist tendency; hunger has been abolished; very dull liberal democracy prevails throughout Africa, China and Russia. Burma and North Korea are holding multi party elections.
BTW the BBC domestic radio is covering Sudan from Johannesburg, which is further from Khartoum than London is. Is that truly the best they can do?
"Thanks Tom. It means I'm barely a journalist."
ETA scooped by sandpit.
Describing a bomb that fell off an Su-34 plane and exploded in the Russian town of Belegrod, the military spokesman said that “an abnormal descent of an aircraft munition” took place.
They bombed their own city!
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-bomb-belgorod-explosion-blast-fighter-jet-1795794
Now whose judgment am I going to trust on this? You or him?
I actually think the Scottish polls are less awful for the SNP than expected. What do they have to do to fall into second place?? Presumably they have a high floor of voters who are very keen on independence and aren't interested in the Greens for one reason or another. Those voters have nowhere else to go, unless they fancy the cranky-looking Alba.
Watching the video of last year’s incident, they were a damn sight more effective at clearing the idiots out of the way, than the police have been in the recent past.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=LZ0g9ck6aEU&pp
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/record-83-ukrainians-want-nato-membership-poll-2022-10-03/
When you get 83% of the country behind something that is usually the government, the opposition, the opposition to the opposition…..
Basically everyone, apart from Piers Corbyn.
That suggests rather strongly that no conceivable Ukrainian government would be against joining NATO.
And in another major development, the BBC reports that a Labour spokesman has described Sunak as "weak".
I agree.
But so is only giving the net figure. You need both to get a full picture.
A net rating of zero at 20-20 with 60% DK is not the same as a net rating of zero at 50-50 with 0% DK.
And if John Curtice disagrees with that, then with the greatest of respect, he's wrong.
Even many senior Brexiteers now understand, quietly, that Brexit failed. Lots of them will probably exit government next year and never return. One day Brexit will be the first line in their obits. So how do the guilty men and women live with that? Me @FT
https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1649066544096333826
If you only consider gross positives for a leader and ignore the netting off of their negatives, Johnson and Corbyn come out as reasonably effective leaders. Naming no names, there are people who still claim that now.
If your model leads to a conclusion that wrong, there's something wrong with your model.
(And maybe it would be better if everyone was honest and just voted for the candidates they liked most. But that isn't what happens- they also consider who they really don't want and how best to stop them. The problem the Conservatives have is that even if they improve their ratings to 35-40%, that still leaves 60-65% of voters, many open to voting for the best placed anti-Conservative this time round.)
Not without anther lottery winner anyway.