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The Tories will surely find a way for BoJo to remain an MP – politicalbetting.com
The Tories will surely find a way for BoJo to remain an MP – politicalbetting.com
it is very hard to see any outcome for the next general election that does not involve the Tories losing a lot of seats. Even if we take the most favourable current poll for Sunak’s party, R&W on Monday, the Tories are 12% behind. At GE2019 the blues had a 12% GB national vote lead so in terms of swing there has been a 12% CON-LAB one.
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Overall, do you think that Suella Braverman is doing well or badly in her role as home secretary?
All Britons
Well: 19%
Badly: 50%
Con voters
Well: 42%
Badly: 33%
1. He stands down voluntarily, before the election.
2. He stands in Uxbridge and wins.
3. He stands in Uxbridge and loses.
4. He does a chicken run to a very safe seat, under cover of the boundary changes and a convenient retirement.
How does:
1. 3/1 25%
2. 6/1 14%
3. 10/3 27%
4. 2/1 33%
sound, for the rough odds of each? That adds a little closer to 50/50, than the 60/40 odds in the header.
Wasn’t there talk about the punishment being put to a vote, and the committee not distinguishing between intentional and unintentional misleading of Parliament?
Also 1 and 4 aren't mutually exclusive. He could in theory stand down, to avoid suspension/recall, then have his arm twisted (!) to stand in a safe seat when a close friend makes a last minute decision not to stand on "health grounds".
Personally, I'm not that sold on the idea of a chicken run. Parties were highly embarrassed by this in the 1990s particularly, and have moved to make it much harder. There is also no special reason why Sunak would want to make an exception for Johnson - indeed, quite the reverse. So I think it's not impossible, but less likely than most on here assume.
I suspect even his family don't know who he is.
“The former Director of National Intelligence agrees with the former CDC Director that Dr. Anthony Fauci lied to Congress under oath about funding gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab:
"Some of Dr. Fauci's testimony is inconsistent with some of the intelligence that we have that remains classified as well as inconsistent with some information that is publicly available”
https://twitter.com/kanekoathegreat/status/1648406822620119041?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
He'd badly misjudged R&B on the basis that, while the new seat was notionally good for the Liberals, he wrongly assumed that this was largely due to David Steel (who went with the other bit of his redrawn constituency in 1983) having a large personal vote which would fall away with a new candidate (Archie Kirkwood).
3 and 4 require clarification, and leave a lot of ambiguity.
Which leaves 5. The electorate expect the crossings to actually stop, not politicians talking about stopping the boats or legislating to stop the boats. Australia actually stopped the boats.
I can see why it matters to members in a marginal but, realistically, doesn't even the faded glamour of Johnson massively outweigh the quiet diligence of a Bob Nobody MP in an ultra-safe Tory seat?
I'm not talking about what members should think, incidentally, but being realistic about how people do make these decisions.
https://www.justsecurity.org/82447/8-top-experts-on-strength-of-a-dominion-defamation-case-against-donald-trump/
And I suspect (seem to remember) Donald Trump went very quiet as soon as Biden was sworn in...
As for Boris, as things stand he's been selected for Uxbridge and that won't be that easy for him to wriggle out of.
And if he were to try to chicken run, he seems like a prime candidate for a Martin Bell-style White Suit opponent.
At the end of 2018, there were 27,256 cases awaiting an initial asylum claim decision.
End of 2020: 77,245 cases.
End of 2021: 81,978 cases.
By the end of 2022, there were 132,182 cases (160,919 if we include family members applying with them).
Or something is up.
Pledge 5 is tortuous politicised language. 'Passing new laws' is easy. The bit of the pledge involving actually running the country properly is hard, and is only indirectly stated.
Which will be aided by her remembering nothing.
What a supremely talented liar she is.
https://order-order.com/2023/04/19/rishi-falling-short-of-meeting-five-pledges/#comments
(the UK figure below should be the internationally comparable CPI 19.1%, not the CPIH 19.2%, but I'll let that pass! 🤓)
fdf.org.uk/contentassets/…
https://twitter.com/julianhjessop/status/1648688949731160069?
He doesn’t have the balls to pass a law that says that if a judge orders you deported, you leave that night, either to Rwanda or a country that agrees to accept you. If you wish to appeal, it’s done from abroad at your own expense.
Interesting.
A weirdly melancholy moment. Bit like losing a pet
The pledge is to stop the boats by passing new laws, not to pass new laws and that is the end of it. The lectern didn't say "Pass New Laws". It said "Stop The Boats".
It is a very simple pledge. That he cannot deliver. So trying to worm out of it by denying he pledged to Stop The Boats whilst standing behind a Stop The Boats lectern giving an "I will Stop The Boats" speech is brass balls on your part.
Your problem is that people aren't as stupid as you think they are. Yer man said Stop The Boats and they expect the boats to be stopped.
But he's not "my man". I'm just thinking ahead.
But I sold it without hesitation when we needed a new car for wifey and we were offered more for it in PX than was sensible. The only other car I had such an attachment to was the Volvo S90 which was just the most sumptuous of luxo-barges. Boring to drive and an annoying powertrain, but just a beautiful thing. Chopped in for an SUV having moved up hear because 20" wheels and rubber band tyres on a looooong car was a Bad Idea.
He HAS pledged to Stop The Boats.
But as to the 'irrationality' of switching from voting Tory in GEs to SKS's Labour; I don't think this is made out. The least rational group of voters, and the least interesting, are those who cannot under any circumstances change their vote.
Switchers are numerous - too numerous to write off without reason as irrational - and several million currently intend to change their vote from Tory to Labour. Maybe they have looked at Patersongate, Partygate, Borisgate, Trussgate, Smallboatgate, Hancockgate, Taxcutsfortherichgate, Chumocracygate and decided it's time for a change from the party of Bridgen and JRM, Patel and Braverman.
I am under no illusions about Labour, and BTW still think the Tories could form the next government. I think it would be a disaster.
The words "pass new laws to" are there for a reason. They don't appear in the other four pledges.
If you don't get it now, you never will.
The last time I was this sentimental about a vehicle was when I sold my first proper motorbike, a Kawasaki 200CC at the age of 19. We had some fun times, me and the Kwakker
How do you get emotionally attached to a machine? It' s a strange thing, but it happens. You do
OTOH I know I've done the right thing. Spending so much time either in central London or in other countries, a car becomes a highly expensive, near-pointless liability, and a positive source of anxiety if I leave it parked somewhere for 3 months while I'm in foreign parts
Sic Transit Van Gloria Mundi
That was one thing that was easy and non hassly. Plenty of spaces
It was everything else that was a source of vexation, except when I was driving it and grooving at the rortiness
But if the boats keep coming and Sunak and Braverman try to rely on "we passed a law" as a get out, they will be regarded as weak and weaseley.
For weak and weaseley they will have been.
Which is likely courageous in the Sir Humphrey sense of the word.
Failed
Failed
Failed
Failed
Failed
The only time I ever had my car towed, was on the Parkway in Camden. Cost me £155 to get it back, and my company would only pay half of it. A load of very confusing signs, that the paid parking finishes at 4pm, after which time it becomes a no waiting zone. The ticket was written at 16:02, and the removal happened at 16:16. It’s two miles’ walk, in the rain as it happened, wearing a suit, from Parkway to the Kentish Town car pound.
Edit: special mention to Westminster, where the metered spaces are free after 18:30, but the single yellows are valid until 19:00. A ticket timed at 18:58 on a single yellow, for £80. Yet no signs on each yellow, you’re supposed to know that as you enter the ‘zone’.
a) Standard of proof, not burden of proof.
Burden of proof is 'who has to prove'
Standard of proof is 'to what level of certainty'
b) There is no such thing in UK criminal law as a finding of innocence. Everyone is deemed to be innocent of everything until and unless convicted by a verdict of guilty. A finding of innocence is never required. You already are innocent.
Pairs well with venison.
It would make a good allotment shed.
At the end of 2018, there were 27,256 cases awaiting an initial asylum claim decision.
End of 2020: 77,245 cases.
End of 2021: 81,978 cases.
By the end of 2022, there were 132,182 cases (160,919 if we include family members applying with them).
Because that shows that they simply aren't processing cases at all let alone not quickly enough.