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Could his role on January 6th block Trump’s WH2024 campaign? – politicalbetting.com
Could his role on January 6th block Trump’s WH2024 campaign? – politicalbetting.com
This is from today’s Washington Post:
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11 Polls with fieldwork entirely in April
LAB Ave. 44.45 (45,44,45,41,46,44,44,48,45,42,44)
CON Ave 28.73 ( 28,27,30,30,26,30,30,25,30,28,32)
LAB Lead 15.72
Polls with fieldwork in previous 2 weeks (late March)
LAB Ave. 46.63 (48,45,45,44,46,46,50,49)
CON Ave. 26.25 (27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26)
LAB Lead 18.38
Reduction in LAB Lead 2.66
@DeltapollUK
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Lab 43% (-5)
Con 29% (+2)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Other 17% (-)
Fieldwork: 13th - 17th April 2023
Sample: 1,567 GB adults
(Changes from 31st March - 3rd April 2023)"
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1648244320703528960
Labour lead is fourteen in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 29% (+2)
Lab 43% (-5)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Other 17% (-)
Fieldwork: 13th - 17th April 2023
Sample: 1,567 GB adults
(Changes from 31st March - 3rd April 2023)
Stark difference between using Mean or Median Poll Analysis
11 Polls with fieldwork entirely in April
LAB Ave. 44.45 (45,44,45,41,46,44,44,48,45,42,44)
CON Ave 28.73 ( 28,27,30,30,26,30,30,25,30,28,32)
LAB Lead 15.72
Polls with fieldwork in previous 2 weeks (late March)
LAB Ave. 46.63 (48,45,45,44,46,46,50,49)
CON Ave. 26.25 (27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26)
LAB Lead 18.38
Reduction in LAB Lead 2.66
MEDIAN April LAB 44 CON 30 LAB Median Lead 14
MEDIAN Late March LAB 46 CON 26.5 LAB Median Lead 19.5
MEDIAN Reduction in Lab Lead 5.5
Not sure how any prosecution is going to happen to happen before the next inauguration. Still, just flagging it will move more independents towards Biden.
But there must now be a significant proportion of the Yes vote in 2014 thinking that if independence had happened in 2014, the current clown troupe would have trashed Scotland.
Independence still maybe - but with some serious intellectual heft first. Those able to make a case for how Scotland responds to issues like currency, pensions, head of state - they seem to be in awfully short supply.
This might be an interesting time for Sunak to set up a Royal Commission into Scottish independence, to examine in forensic detail exactly how Scotland might look post independence - and the difficult choices the Scots (and rUK) might have to make.
The SNP have got away with forcing the case in an in intellectual vacuum.
It's not like it is one of those "you cannot hold public office if you covet another man's turnip" laws which made sense in a turnip-driven economy but have no real meaning now.
But good stuff, admitting that the case for the Union has been an intellectual vacuum is startlingly honest.
A man has been charged with murder after killing a young woman when her car pulled into the wrong driveway – just days after a similar incident saw a teenager shot after ringing the wrong doorbell."
https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/young-woman-shot-dead-after-her-car-pulled-into-wrong-driveway-4108369
My base case is still that Labour gains a small majority at the next election, thanks to (a) a recovery in Scotland and (b) a worsening economic outlook in the next 12 months.
Sure, 3% of this highly intelligently defined demographic or 5% of that one may switch to or away from Trump, but his chances aren't great in any state where he's not on the ballot paper. Ditto if he's in a state jail where no president can pardon him, so he'd have to show Kim Jong-un his skyscraper pics on Skype or Whatsapp. And several more criminal charges are likely to land home too.
If circumstances do lead Trump back to the WH, though, one thing is for sure: he won't be choosing someone like Mike Pence as VP. Tom Cotton, more like.
There is a very good reason independence failed. And you are the epitome.
Is it media activity including talk about campaign adverts? Or is the the impact of the local election campaign itself, as folks go out on the doorstep and voters have to get off the fence? My hunch is that it is the latter.
It will be interesting to see how Labour responds to what was inevitable.
Colin Beattie MSP is also a member of the Public Audit Committee in the Scottish Parliament which has been pushing for greater transparency in public expenditure and in public life.
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1648275054814285824
Mandy he’s also the chair of the Scottish Commission for Public Audit, which among other things appoints a qualified person to audit the accounts of Audit Scotland. It might be wise for him to step aside while this is ongoing.
https://twitter.com/hughhenry_12/status/1648290404574404611
https://twitter.com/Docstockk/status/1648285323493797890?s=20
It’s actually a genuinely new point of law that needs to be worked through, at least in the Western world. The Chinese will continue to do it their way.
If the AI companies win, we’ll be very close to the AI taking five minutes to write 100,000 words, with the premise of the life and times of a high-living travelling dildo-making flint-knapper, in the style of a Tom Knox novel. And that really will be the end of the world!
https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1648249050163036161?t=NgFyKWhGc8FzqTBucNi1Fg&s=19
While Trump's actions were blatantly illegal, they weren't insurrection.
Net approval for the Leader of the Opposition has decreased by two points over the same period.
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1648244325099216898?s=20
Our historical leadership approval tracker shows that the gap between net approval for @RishiSunak and @Keir_Starmer has narrowed from fifteen points, 2 weeks ago, to two points this week.
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1648244327473192965?s=20
It's just that this one doesn't apply to the circumstances.
It will be fine to make Eminem sing a Taylor Swift song in the style of Motley Crue, but it won’t be allowed to make Winnie The Pooh cartoons about visiting the Forbidden City.
He needs someone marginally more plausible to 'moderate' Republicans and 'independents'.
If nothing else, it will be appealed to the Supreme Court, and as @Dura_Ace pointed out, they will rule he should be on the ballot.
Given the speed at which the American justice system works, even if he is charged now, the chances of a conviction before polling day are zero.
Case for it was made yesterday. Deals with the supposed legal obstacles too
https://spectator.org/a-trump-desantis-ticket-can-win-in-2024/
Around 30,000 people are expected in central London from Friday for the biggest climate change protest in years, raising the prospect of disruption for the London marathon.
Extinction Rebellion, which announced in January that it was “quitting” demonstrations that affected the general public, said it did not intend the event to be disruptive like its 2019 protest in the capital, which led to more than a thousand arrests and saw a pink boat occupying Oxford Circus.
However, Just Stop Oil, a separate group with similar objectives, refused to rule out disrupting the marathon and said it expected many of its supporters to be there.
The group said: “We will continue to disrupt sports and cultural events until the institutions join us in civil resistance against new oil and gas. We don’t answer questions about our plans. That’s irrelevant when we face crop failure, drought and starvation within a few short decades.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/xr-calls-30-000-protesters-to-london-on-weekend-of-marathon-cs7vcqfrv
Cash will become less useable as high street shops increasingly reject bank notes because of the rise in digital payments, a senior Bank of England official has said.
It will become harder to spend physical money in the coming years because contactless payments are on the rise and consumers are increasingly turning to the internet for purchases, according to Sir Jon Cunliffe, a deputy governor at the central bank and a member of its rate-setting committee.
The shift away from physical cash to electronic payments has been very clear and is set to continue, he said, adding that the Bank should continue to develop an electronic version of the currency, known as the “digital pound”, to maintain confidence in the country’s banking system.
“Cash is likely to decline further and cash itself will become less useable in everyday transactions; for example, if internet commerce grows and if merchants increasingly accept only digital payment,” Cunliffe told the Innovate Finance Global Summit yesterday.
Card payments overtook cash to become the most dominant form of payment in the retail sector in 2016. Five years later, 85 per cent of payments were made digitally, via bank transfers or card payments. Ninety per cent of people use contactless payments and nearly a third of adults in the UK use Apple Pay, Google Pay or other apps that facilitate mobile payments.
Cunliffe said: “Most obviously, what I have called the digitalisation of everyday life will continue. The growth of internet commerce or use of banking and payments apps, for example, is forecast to grow and unlikely to stop.”
The Bank has said it will continue to issue cash as long as there is any demand for it.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cash-is-no-longer-king-and-will-become-less-useable-in-future-says-bank-5rrqz2zk9
Two former Russian mercenaries have admitted killing hundreds of Ukrainian civilians, including dozens of children who were sheltering in a basement in eastern Ukraine.
Alexey Savichev and Azamat Uldarov told a Russian human rights activist that they had been recruited from Russian prisons to fight in Ukraine for the Wagner Group, the private military company that is headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Kremlin-linked tycoon.
Uldarov, who appeared to have been drinking, said that in one incident, he and his fellow mercenaries massacred between 300 and 400 people, including about 40 children, who had taken refuge in the basement of a nine-floor block of flats in Bakhmut, the town in the Donbas region which has seen some of the heaviest fighting of the war.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wagner-group-mercenaries-admit-killing-40-children-in-bakhmut-0903w6zx7
Thankee
This is a betting site. My portentous "insights" were in line with the SNP losing the referendum.
Badly.
I hope you bet accordingly.
Although Anabobazina and TSE will tell us only to pay on our credit cards.
Never gamble using a credit card as the bank see it as a cash advance and charge you a 3% cash advance fee and 59.9% APR.
Mind you, you can only gamble with debit cards these days.
I had asked it earlier about who invented the Scanning Electron Microscope then without starting a new chat, asked it about the 1997 General Election.
And it decided to combine the two.
54s
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (12-13 April)
Con: 27% (no change from 5-6 Apr)
Lab: 45% (+1)
Lib Dem: 10% (+1)
Green: 5% (-2)
Reform UK: 6% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
the reaction amongst his supporters if he were barred from the ballot might be concerning
UGH
For example.
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
Plus, this way you get to access to two tax free personal allowances.
It’s NAZI levels of repulsive brutality.