Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
Given that Colin Beattie has been Treasurer of the SNP for a very lengthy period (save for a short intermission when Chapman was appointed and then resigned as he wasn't allowed to see the books), I'd be more surprised if the Polis DIDN'T want to speak to him.
A few people's arses must be making buttons at this point to be briefing this kind of nonsense to The Times.
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
Everyone seems very quick to write off Trump but I reckon he could surprise on the inside.
My view is he could get the nomination but I think it's very hard for him to win the general.
Even in 2016 he was the 5/1 shot that came in - it required results in all the key swing states to come in for him, in just the right way, and most models gave those stacked odds only a 20% chance, at best.
Thing is sometimes 20% chances come in. However, this time Independents and the Democrats are wise to it - and the latter much less complacent and arrogant, whilst Trump himself seems to be doing everything possible to alienate the former - so I think that makes it much harder for him to slip through the grate.
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
No locals in Dorset but I have just been over to rural Hampshire today (the Test valley) where there are plenty of LibDem signs out, it's just like the good old days.
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
I can't help but notice that yesterday's R&W poll (Labour lead 12, Tories on 32) got a lot more attention on here than today's You Gov (Labour lead 18, Tories on 27). Baffling.
Meanwhile, it's bloody freezing down here on the south coast, and we're thinking of moving to Scotland.
How much attention is this getting?
Fascinating how those who were crowing about how effective those Labour attack posters had been are now so quiet.
There's little doubt the coverage of the attack ads has damaged Labour in general and Starmer in particular but the real story in that graphic is the fall and rise of Rishi Sunak.
However, to assume either Sunak will continue to rise in popularity and Starmer will continue to fall or the popularity figures will accurately reflect voting intention would be foolish at this time.
I think some commentators on PB will "assume" away.
Your analysis as always is excellent. An oasis of common sense (along with a dwindling band of a number of others) in an expanding desert of humourless, mindless partisan ramping and childish ya boo sucks cheerleading.
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
Given that Colin Beattie has been Treasurer of the SNP for a very lengthy period (save for a short intermission when Chapman was appointed and then resigned as he wasn't allowed to see the books), I'd be more surprised if the Polis DIDN'T want to speak to him.
A few people's arses must be making buttons at this point to be briefing this kind of nonsense to The Times.
They might also want to be grateful for the small mercy no-one managed to get arrested between Sturgeon's surprise resignation and Humza being named winner of the resulting leadership contest.
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
As Dominic Raab inquiry nears end, there’s one thing tha I’m told has made process particularly daunting for complainants. They got message @LucyJMcDaid & I have seen) saying deputy pm will see all evidence. That’s for his right of reply-but some haven’t taken part cos of that.
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
I can't help but notice that yesterday's R&W poll (Labour lead 12, Tories on 32) got a lot more attention on here than today's You Gov (Labour lead 18, Tories on 27). Baffling.
Meanwhile, it's bloody freezing down here on the south coast, and we're thinking of moving to Scotland.
How much attention is this getting?
Fascinating how those who were crowing about how effective those Labour attack posters had been are now so quiet.
There's little doubt the coverage of the attack ads has damaged Labour in general and Starmer in particular but the real story in that graphic is the fall and rise of Rishi Sunak.
However, to assume either Sunak will continue to rise in popularity and Starmer will continue to fall or the popularity figures will accurately reflect voting intention would be foolish at this time.
I think some commentators on PB will "assume" away.
Your analysis as always is excellent. An oasis of common sense (along with a dwindling band of a number of others) in an expanding desert of humourless, mindless partisan ramping and childish ya boo sucks cheerleading.
Is that the way out?
Am I alone in thinking pb is as good as it ever was, if not better?
I'm selling my flat and will likely have a fair chunk of cash that will essentially sit idle for a while. Could anyone suggest routes for that cash that avoid bank/system risk? I had hoped to just invest directly in gilts, but I can't see a 100% route of doing that. It seems that you have to go via 'computershare'.
I have most of my investments with Hargreaves Lansdowne, and they're great, but I don't want to have all of my eggs in one basket.
It doesn't have to be Gilts - could be UST or ECB bonds. Not interested in Gold or the like.
I'd appreciate any thoughts.
The £85 000 limit goes up to £1 000 000 for 6 months for temporarily high deposits, such as real estate sales, so it's only if it is going to be sitting longer that you need to worry, it also gives you time to think:
"Local elections 2023: David Davis calls for delay to new voter photo ID rules to prevent 'hundreds of thousands' being blocked from casting ballots
Former cabinet minister David Davis says the new election rules that make it mandatory for voters to present photo ID before casting a ballot are an attempt to prevent a fraud that he argues "doesn't happen"."
But there must now be a significant proportion of the Yes vote in 2014 thinking that if independence had happened in 2014, the current clown troupe would have trashed Scotland.
Independence still maybe - but with some serious intellectual heft first. Those able to make a case for how Scotland responds to issues like currency, pensions, head of state - they seem to be in awfully short supply.
This might be an interesting time for Sunak to set up a Royal Commission into Scottish independence, to examine in forensic detail exactly how Scotland might look post independence - and the difficult choices the Scots (and rUK) might have to make.
The SNP have got away with forcing the case in an in intellectual vacuum.
You could have at least corrected the typo. But good stuff, admitting that the case for the Union has been an intellectual vacuum is startlingly honest.
Trying to look smug, you just look like a place on Orkney.
There is a very good reason independence failed. And you are the epitome.
Despite your portentous 'insights', fuck all to do with you either way of course.
Typical offensive posting from you. There is never anything else.
This is a betting site. My portentous "insights" were in line with the SNP losing the referendum.
Badly.
I hope you bet accordingly.
The catastrofuck that is the SNP As Of This Moment seems to have robbed @Theuniondivvie of his trenchant wit, leaving behind only the pungent bile. It is a sad and unpretty spectacle
I could never match ‘Shut up, you paedo’ or ‘intern all Muslims now’ in the wit stakes.
Seems odd that the incontrovertible truth that the future of Scotland has fuck all to do with tourist class lads like yourself and the doyenne of the doorstep & crap Harry & Megs scoops should be characterised as pungent bile. Is there a sweeter way to sugar that pill that you’d prefer?
I'm married to a Scot. Most of my holidays in recent years have been taken in Scotland. I worked for Chevron, the company that made the Ninian platform there, the largest object ever moved by man, to extract a billion barrels of oil in UK waters. Employing a vast army of construction staff.
What da fuck have YOU ever done for Scotland - other than shill for a clown troupe of self-interested hustlers who would have taken a fine people down the pan.
Lol.
‘tourist class lads like yourself and the doyenne of the doorstep & crap Harry & Megs scoops’
‘Most of my holidays in recent years have been taken in Scotland’
Question: "How many votes did Tony Blair receive in the Sedgefield constituency at the 1997 UK general election?"
Answer: "Tony Blair, who was the leader of the Labour Party at the time, stood for election in the Sedgefield constituency at the 1997 UK general election. The result of the election in Sedgefield was as follows:
Tony Blair (Labour Party) - 34,333 votes (71.6%) Tim Garden (Conservative Party) - 8,817 votes (18.4%) Alex White (Liberal Democrats) - 3,065 votes (6.4%) Others - 1,297 votes (2.7%)"
I was always very doubtful about the ability of ChatGTP to write undergraduate essays but the willingness to make stuff up to create an argument suggests I may have underrated it.
Everyone seems very quick to write off Trump but I reckon he could surprise on the inside.
My view is he could get the nomination but I think it's very hard for him to win the general.
Even in 2016 he was the 5/1 shot that came in - it required results in all the key swing states to come in for him, in just the right way, and most models gave those stacked odds only a 20% chance, at best.
Thing is sometimes 20% chances come in. However, this time Independents and the Democrats are wise to it - and the latter much less complacent and arrogant, whilst Trump himself seems to be doing everything possible to alienate the former - so I think that makes it much harder for him to slip through the grate.
American politics exists in a parallel universe to our own.
Last autumn the American owner of the houseboat in the James River that I was staying on insisted on taking me out to dinner with his wife; I assume that a solo British traveller with a dog was sufficiently novel in deepest Virginia to justify making the offer. Everything they said during the meal put their politics out on the right wing, well beyond most of our Tories, and as we moved towards coffee I thought I’d have a little fun by telling them how highly regarded Bernie Sanders is in the UK. To my amazement they agreed with me and revealed themselves as lifelong Democrats.
I'm selling my flat and will likely have a fair chunk of cash that will essentially sit idle for a while. Could anyone suggest routes for that cash that avoid bank/system risk? I had hoped to just invest directly in gilts, but I can't see a 100% route of doing that. It seems that you have to go via 'computershare'.
I have most of my investments with Hargreaves Lansdowne, and they're great, but I don't want to have all of my eggs in one basket.
It doesn't have to be Gilts - could be UST or ECB bonds. Not interested in Gold or the like.
I'd appreciate any thoughts.
You can use HL's Active savings to split it up amongst several separately insured building societies. About 3% instant access, or you can lock it up for 3 months, 6 months, a year or more for about 4.5%:
Thanks carnforth. Yes I have split up my savings in the past using their platform. As I said above I really like HL, but I'm sort of worried about having one portal no matter how regulated and protected.
You used to be able to buy gilts directly through the post office.
Everyone seems very quick to write off Trump but I reckon he could surprise on the inside.
My view is he could get the nomination but I think it's very hard for him to win the general.
Even in 2016 he was the 5/1 shot that came in - it required results in all the key swing states to come in for him, in just the right way, and most models gave those stacked odds only a 20% chance, at best.
Thing is sometimes 20% chances come in. However, this time Independents and the Democrats are wise to it - and the latter much less complacent and arrogant, whilst Trump himself seems to be doing everything possible to alienate the former - so I think that makes it much harder for him to slip through the grate.
What do you think are the chances of him not getting the GOP nomination but standing as a POTUS candidate nonetheless and splitting the GOP vote?
(PS Disappointing that my hilarious riff on 'surprising on the upside' passed everyone by.)
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
Question: "How many votes did Tony Blair receive in the Sedgefield constituency at the 1997 UK general election?"
Answer: "Tony Blair, who was the leader of the Labour Party at the time, stood for election in the Sedgefield constituency at the 1997 UK general election. The result of the election in Sedgefield was as follows:
Tony Blair (Labour Party) - 34,333 votes (71.6%) Tim Garden (Conservative Party) - 8,817 votes (18.4%) Alex White (Liberal Democrats) - 3,065 votes (6.4%) Others - 1,297 votes (2.7%)"
I was always very doubtful about the ability of ChatGTP to write undergraduate essays but the willingness to make stuff up to create an argument suggests I may have underrated it.
It could also out-troll an army of Russian bots by confidently asserting whatever made-up facts fit the argument.
Everyone seems very quick to write off Trump but I reckon he could surprise on the inside.
My view is he could get the nomination but I think it's very hard for him to win the general.
Even in 2016 he was the 5/1 shot that came in - it required results in all the key swing states to come in for him, in just the right way, and most models gave those stacked odds only a 20% chance, at best.
Thing is sometimes 20% chances come in. However, this time Independents and the Democrats are wise to it - and the latter much less complacent and arrogant, whilst Trump himself seems to be doing everything possible to alienate the former - so I think that makes it much harder for him to slip through the grate.
American politics exists in a parallel universe to our own.
Last autumn the American owner of the houseboat in the James River that I was staying on insisted on taking me out to dinner with his wife; I assume that a solo British traveller with a dog was sufficiently novel in deepest Virginia to justify making the offer. Everything they said during the meal put their politics out on the right wing, well beyond most of our Tories, and as we moved towards coffee I thought I’d have a little fun by telling them how highly regarded Bernie Sanders is in the UK. To my amazement they agreed with me and revealed themselves as lifelong Democrats.
Do you think they might have just been polite hosts?
I can't help but notice that yesterday's R&W poll (Labour lead 12, Tories on 32) got a lot more attention on here than today's You Gov (Labour lead 18, Tories on 27). Baffling.
Meanwhile, it's bloody freezing down here on the south coast, and we're thinking of moving to Scotland.
How much attention is this getting?
Fascinating how those who were crowing about how effective those Labour attack posters had been are now so quiet.
There's little doubt the coverage of the attack ads has damaged Labour in general and Starmer in particular but the real story in that graphic is the fall and rise of Rishi Sunak.
However, to assume either Sunak will continue to rise in popularity and Starmer will continue to fall or the popularity figures will accurately reflect voting intention would be foolish at this time.
Yes, I'd agree with that. It's not inevitable that Starmer will continue to erode, nor Sunak gain.
It's perfectly possible Sunak starts to go backwards again. As always, his own party will be his own worst enemy in this.
Thanks for the kind word. At this stage, I'd assume nothing. 15% Don't Knows (20% among women) should temper certainty.
Compared with where they were six months ago, the Conservatives have given themselves half a chance - my analogy would be the team which has gone in at half time five down. They've pulled a couple back but it's past the hour mark. There's still a chance and the team in front is looking less confident but at 5-2 down, the last thing you want to do is concede again so it's attack all the time and hope the defence doesn't get caught..
The first is that, if it continues, it will put a major dent in the Democrats ability to push through federal judges.
The second is around the California Senator race. Feinstein will be out in 24 but if she quits before then (and calls will grow if that doesn't get resolved), Newsom has already said he will pick a Black Woman to replace her, which effectively means those such as Katie Porter and Adam Schliff will see their races dashed. So I'd expect to see their campaigns push for her to stay until 24 where they would have a better chance to win the nomination.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
I'm selling my flat and will likely have a fair chunk of cash that will essentially sit idle for a while. Could anyone suggest routes for that cash that avoid bank/system risk? I had hoped to just invest directly in gilts, but I can't see a 100% route of doing that. It seems that you have to go via 'computershare'.
I have most of my investments with Hargreaves Lansdowne, and they're great, but I don't want to have all of my eggs in one basket.
It doesn't have to be Gilts - could be UST or ECB bonds. Not interested in Gold or the like.
I'd appreciate any thoughts.
You can use HL's Active savings to split it up amongst several separately insured building societies. About 3% instant access, or you can lock it up for 3 months, 6 months, a year or more for about 4.5%:
Thanks carnforth. Yes I have split up my savings in the past using their platform. As I said above I really like HL, but I'm sort of worried about having one portal no matter how regulated and protected.
You used to be able to buy gilts directly through the post office.
I may be being dumb but gilts are pretty risky short-term investments are they not? Their value can go down significantly if interests rates rise.
Everyone seems very quick to write off Trump but I reckon he could surprise on the inside.
My view is he could get the nomination but I think it's very hard for him to win the general.
Even in 2016 he was the 5/1 shot that came in - it required results in all the key swing states to come in for him, in just the right way, and most models gave those stacked odds only a 20% chance, at best.
Thing is sometimes 20% chances come in. However, this time Independents and the Democrats are wise to it - and the latter much less complacent and arrogant, whilst Trump himself seems to be doing everything possible to alienate the former - so I think that makes it much harder for him to slip through the grate.
What do you think are the chances of him not getting the GOP nomination but standing as a POTUS candidate nonetheless and splitting the GOP vote?
(PS Disappointing that my hilarious riff on 'surprising on the upside' passed everyone by.)
I'd agree with you @benpointer that Trump is being underrated on this site.
Let's put it this way. Have the forces that propelled him to victory in 2016 and near victory in 2020 changed? I'd argued not and some of them have arguably intensified.
But there must now be a significant proportion of the Yes vote in 2014 thinking that if independence had happened in 2014, the current clown troupe would have trashed Scotland.
Independence still maybe - but with some serious intellectual heft first. Those able to make a case for how Scotland responds to issues like currency, pensions, head of state - they seem to be in awfully short supply.
This might be an interesting time for Sunak to set up a Royal Commission into Scottish independence, to examine in forensic detail exactly how Scotland might look post independence - and the difficult choices the Scots (and rUK) might have to make.
The SNP have got away with forcing the case in an in intellectual vacuum.
You could have at least corrected the typo. But good stuff, admitting that the case for the Union has been an intellectual vacuum is startlingly honest.
Trying to look smug, you just look like a place on Orkney.
There is a very good reason independence failed. And you are the epitome.
Despite your portentous 'insights', fuck all to do with you either way of course.
Typical offensive posting from you. There is never anything else.
This is a betting site. My portentous "insights" were in line with the SNP losing the referendum.
Badly.
I hope you bet accordingly.
The catastrofuck that is the SNP As Of This Moment seems to have robbed @Theuniondivvie of his trenchant wit, leaving behind only the pungent bile. It is a sad and unpretty spectacle
I could never match ‘Shut up, you paedo’ or ‘intern all Muslims now’ in the wit stakes.
Seems odd that the incontrovertible truth that the future of Scotland has fuck all to do with tourist class lads like yourself and the doyenne of the doorstep & crap Harry & Megs scoops should be characterised as pungent bile. Is there a sweeter way to sugar that pill that you’d prefer?
I'm married to a Scot. Most of my holidays in recent years have been taken in Scotland. I worked for Chevron, the company that made the Ninian platform there, the largest object ever moved by man, to extract a billion barrels of oil in UK waters. Employing a vast army of construction staff.
What da fuck have YOU ever done for Scotland - other than shill for a clown troupe of self-interested hustlers who would have taken a fine people down the pan.
Lol.
‘tourist class lads like yourself and the doyenne of the doorstep & crap Harry & Megs scoops’
‘Most of my holidays in recent years have been taken in Scotland’
I can't help but notice that yesterday's R&W poll (Labour lead 12, Tories on 32) got a lot more attention on here than today's You Gov (Labour lead 18, Tories on 27). Baffling.
Meanwhile, it's bloody freezing down here on the south coast, and we're thinking of moving to Scotland.
How much attention is this getting?
Fascinating how those who were crowing about how effective those Labour attack posters had been are now so quiet.
There's little doubt the coverage of the attack ads has damaged Labour in general and Starmer in particular but the real story in that graphic is the fall and rise of Rishi Sunak.
However, to assume either Sunak will continue to rise in popularity and Starmer will continue to fall or the popularity figures will accurately reflect voting intention would be foolish at this time.
I think some commentators on PB will "assume" away.
Your analysis as always is excellent. An oasis of common sense (along with a dwindling band of a number of others) in an expanding desert of humourless, mindless partisan ramping and childish ya boo sucks cheerleading.
Is that the way out?
Am I alone in thinking pb is as good as it ever was, if not better?
I miss Alastair Meeks whose analysis was often superb and Tim who could be waspishly funny. I also wish Richard Nabavi still contributed more. Weirdly the first 2 of these were people I rarely agreed with but they challenged my complacent assumptions and made me think. That’s what I like most about the site and it still happens often enough.
I'm selling my flat and will likely have a fair chunk of cash that will essentially sit idle for a while. Could anyone suggest routes for that cash that avoid bank/system risk? I had hoped to just invest directly in gilts, but I can't see a 100% route of doing that. It seems that you have to go via 'computershare'.
I have most of my investments with Hargreaves Lansdowne, and they're great, but I don't want to have all of my eggs in one basket.
It doesn't have to be Gilts - could be UST or ECB bonds. Not interested in Gold or the like.
I'd appreciate any thoughts.
You can use HL's Active savings to split it up amongst several separately insured building societies. About 3% instant access, or you can lock it up for 3 months, 6 months, a year or more for about 4.5%:
Thanks carnforth. Yes I have split up my savings in the past using their platform. As I said above I really like HL, but I'm sort of worried about having one portal no matter how regulated and protected.
You used to be able to buy gilts directly through the post office.
I may be being dumb but gilts are pretty risky short-term investments are they not? Their value can go down significantly if interests rates rise.
(Someone please correct me if I have that wrong).
Yes, although the mainsteam view is that quite possibly rates are now close to a peak. In which case they’d be a buy.
The OP might look at Raisin as an alternative platform that offers access to a range of protected high interest investments.
I can't help but notice that yesterday's R&W poll (Labour lead 12, Tories on 32) got a lot more attention on here than today's You Gov (Labour lead 18, Tories on 27). Baffling.
Meanwhile, it's bloody freezing down here on the south coast, and we're thinking of moving to Scotland.
How much attention is this getting?
Fascinating how those who were crowing about how effective those Labour attack posters had been are now so quiet.
There's little doubt the coverage of the attack ads has damaged Labour in general and Starmer in particular but the real story in that graphic is the fall and rise of Rishi Sunak.
However, to assume either Sunak will continue to rise in popularity and Starmer will continue to fall or the popularity figures will accurately reflect voting intention would be foolish at this time.
Yes, I'd agree with that. It's not inevitable that Starmer will continue to erode, nor Sunak gain.
It's perfectly possible Sunak starts to go backwards again. As always, his own party will be his own worst enemy in this.
Thanks for the kind word. At this stage, I'd assume nothing. 15% Don't Knows (20% among women) should temper certainty.
Compared with where they were six months ago, the Conservatives have given themselves half a chance - my analogy would be the team which has gone in at half time five down. They've pulled a couple back but it's past the hour mark. There's still a chance and the team in front is looking less confident but at 5-2 down, the last thing you want to do is concede again so it's attack all the time and hope the defence doesn't get caught..
I wouldn't say 5-0, it reminds me a bit of City v Spurs in the FA Cup when Keegan was in charge.3-0 down at halftime and Joey Barton sent off (and Anelka injured) and then City win 3-4...
Question: "How many votes did Tony Blair receive in the Sedgefield constituency at the 1997 UK general election?"
Answer: "Tony Blair, who was the leader of the Labour Party at the time, stood for election in the Sedgefield constituency at the 1997 UK general election. The result of the election in Sedgefield was as follows:
Tony Blair (Labour Party) - 34,333 votes (71.6%) Tim Garden (Conservative Party) - 8,817 votes (18.4%) Alex White (Liberal Democrats) - 3,065 votes (6.4%) Others - 1,297 votes (2.7%)"
I was always very doubtful about the ability of ChatGTP to write undergraduate essays but the willingness to make stuff up to create an argument suggests I may have underrated it.
I just tried the same question with the pay-for GPT4 and got a reply of
"In the 1997 UK general election, Tony Blair won the Sedgefield constituency with a total of 33,251 votes."
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
Question: "How many votes did Tony Blair receive in the Sedgefield constituency at the 1997 UK general election?"
Answer: "Tony Blair, who was the leader of the Labour Party at the time, stood for election in the Sedgefield constituency at the 1997 UK general election. The result of the election in Sedgefield was as follows:
Tony Blair (Labour Party) - 34,333 votes (71.6%) Tim Garden (Conservative Party) - 8,817 votes (18.4%) Alex White (Liberal Democrats) - 3,065 votes (6.4%) Others - 1,297 votes (2.7%)"
I was always very doubtful about the ability of ChatGTP to write undergraduate essays but the willingness to make stuff up to create an argument suggests I may have underrated it.
I just tried the same question with the pay-for GPT4 and got a reply of
"In the 1997 UK general election, Tony Blair won the Sedgefield constituency with a total of 33,251 votes."
Not _quite_ as wrong, but still 'off'.
You'll have to wait for the pay-more-for GPT5 for the correct answer.
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
When you manage to present one we'll find out.
Stupidity isn't a crime, so you’re free to go.
If stupidity becomes a defence I am out of a job. But I certainly wouldn’t classify @kinabalu as such in any event.
"In its fight against the $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit brought by Dominion Voting Systems, Fox News has shifted its strategy to blaming former President Donald Trump, Newsweek reported." https://twitter.com/RealNoraC/status/1648365881334939655
“A big orange man did it and ran away.”
They’ve also submitted a Simpsons clip as part of the defence filing.
Fox News is requesting that the judge overseeing the case allow it to introduce evidence showing that the network's commentary about mass voter fraud in the 2020 election were just examples of a news organization reporting on the rhetoric Trump was using – not an endorsement of his claims.
Is that really new? I mean, I had thought that was part of their strategy from the beginning, that they were just talking about newsworthy things - whilst Dominion has been arguing Fox did not give time to countering the false claims reported on (despite being given the information many times), and that internal communications demonstrate they did that (and focused relentlessly on guests spewing falsehoods) to protect their bottom line at the expense of their journalistic integrity (no sniggering).
IanB2 - Perhaps your Virginia hosts admire the fact that Sanders is a self-made millionaire, who owns three houses. (I mention that because, recently, Sanders has switched from attacking "millionaires and billionaires" to just attacking billionaires.)
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
A tactically unwise line to take, complaining about the way the big meanies are lookign into claims. Even if it comes to nothing in the end, despite the entertaining drama of it all it's not like they have being dragged through the streets in handcuffs.
It's like when something is leaked which reveals something bad, and the authorities are more angry about the leak than the bad thing.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
He rides on a buggy!
... and only takes 18 shots to get round the course.
AChinese businessman linked to a “secret police station” in London has organised Tory fundraising dinners and been photographed with party leaders, The Times can reveal.
Ruiyou Lin, 40, runs a takeaway ordering platform in Croydon from an office address which hosts an alleged overseas Chinese police station.
The businessman has attended Chinese Communist Party (CCP) political conferences in China. He has also held roles in several organisations in Britain with links to the party department responsible for overseeing the United Front strategy of using Chinese nationals living abroad to push its interests.
At the same time, Lin developed contacts in the Conservative Party in Britain, serving as vice-chairman of a constituency Chinese group and rubbing shoulders with the former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Theresa May. He has denied working for China and said he had no interest in British or Chinese politics but attended events to meet potential investors.
Authorities in the West have expressed growing concern about China’s attempts to influence domestic politics in foreign nations. On Monday US prosecutors arrested two men in New York for allegedly operating a secret police station in Manhattan.
Somewhat amusingly, the SCons were banging on about one of the alleged CCP 'police stations' here and that they'd been given some sort of grant during covid lockdown and HOW OUTRAGEOUS this was.
Then a local paper dug up a whole series of photos and stories of Boris posing with the owner of said 'police station' and saying how marvellous it all was, how the owner was a pillar of the community etc etc.
Rather more silent on that front now from the SCons.
I'm selling my flat and will likely have a fair chunk of cash that will essentially sit idle for a while. Could anyone suggest routes for that cash that avoid bank/system risk? I had hoped to just invest directly in gilts, but I can't see a 100% route of doing that. It seems that you have to go via 'computershare'.
I have most of my investments with Hargreaves Lansdowne, and they're great, but I don't want to have all of my eggs in one basket.
It doesn't have to be Gilts - could be UST or ECB bonds. Not interested in Gold or the like.
I'd appreciate any thoughts.
You can use HL's Active savings to split it up amongst several separately insured building societies. About 3% instant access, or you can lock it up for 3 months, 6 months, a year or more for about 4.5%:
Thanks carnforth. Yes I have split up my savings in the past using their platform. As I said above I really like HL, but I'm sort of worried about having one portal no matter how regulated and protected.
You used to be able to buy gilts directly through the post office.
I may be being dumb but gilts are pretty risky short-term investments are they not? Their value can go down significantly if interests rates rise.
(Someone please correct me if I have that wrong).
It depends on their duration. You can limit risk by buying shorter dated gilts whose value will always revert to par within a foreseeable period.
But I have had a number of interesting discussions with our fund managers as to whether the concept of gilts as a “safe” investment still holds true. Of late they have been at least as volatile as equities.
the fortunes of the conservative party are just tracking the stockmarket. Fortunes hit a nadir on the steep dive in september october and have recovered slightly as the stock market has recovered. Peak tory popularity around oct 2021 was right near the stock markets peak. So I have saved you all hours of analysis now.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
He rides on a buggy!
... and only takes 18 shots to get round the course.
He plays 18 holes on a regular basis, one shot at each?
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
He rides on a buggy!
yes but he still has to walk round the putting greens
As Dominic Raab inquiry nears end, there’s one thing tha I’m told has made process particularly daunting for complainants. They got message @LucyJMcDaid & I have seen) saying deputy pm will see all evidence. That’s for his right of reply-but some haven’t taken part cos of that.
?? Well of course he would and of course some would not.
Taking on bullies is not without costs to oneself. Does Whitehall run on different principles generally or something, as it seems like the people who interact with a Cabinet Minister should be aware of such?
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
He rides on a buggy!
... and only takes 18 shots to get round the course.
He plays 18 holes on a regular basis, one shot at each?
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
He rides on a buggy!
yes but he still has to walk round the putting greens
Wanna bet? When you're the owner, you can tell the Green keeper to go fuck himself.
I did have a friend, many years ago, who was a paraplegic. He loved golf though. As it was a military wound, he was given special permission by Ross Golf Club to drive a modified trolley anywhere - including onto the greens - so he could play. Watching him lean out to play a drive was quite something.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
He rides on a buggy!
... and only takes 18 shots to get round the course.
He plays 18 holes on a regular basis, one shot at each?
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
Against all this he is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise.
He rides on a buggy!
... and only takes 18 shots to get round the course.
He plays 18 holes on a regular basis, one shot at each?
A real old school classic cheat (apparently all just an innocent error due to illness...apparently)
A top Scottish ultra-marathon runner has been disqualified from a race for using a car during part of the route.
Joasia Zakrzewski finished third in the 2023 GB Ultras Manchester to Liverpool 50-mile race - but is thought to have travelled by car for 2.5 miles...
Wayne Drinkwater, the director of the GB Ultras race, said that after the ultramarathon he received information that a runner had gained an "unsporting, competitive advantage during a section of the event.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
He has Secret Service protection .. and the heart of a twenty year old according to his doctor ?
In recent months, UK has been tracking Russian submarines "in the North Atlantic and in the Irish Sea and in the North Sea doing some strange routes that they normally wouldn't do," UK defense chief Ben Wallace told reporters in DC Tuesday
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
When you manage to present one we'll find out.
Stupidity isn't a crime, so you’re free to go.
If stupidity becomes a defence I am out of a job. But I certainly wouldn’t classify @kinabalu as such in any event.
He shouldn't dish it out if he can't take it.
I'm not sure I can top his impressive "ffs, it's our turn" argument of earlier today anyway.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
He has Secret Service protection .. and the heart of a twenty year old according to his doctor ?
I'm selling my flat and will likely have a fair chunk of cash that will essentially sit idle for a while. Could anyone suggest routes for that cash that avoid bank/system risk? I had hoped to just invest directly in gilts, but I can't see a 100% route of doing that. It seems that you have to go via 'computershare'.
I have most of my investments with Hargreaves Lansdowne, and they're great, but I don't want to have all of my eggs in one basket.
It doesn't have to be Gilts - could be UST or ECB bonds. Not interested in Gold or the like.
I'd appreciate any thoughts.
You can use HL's Active savings to split it up amongst several separately insured building societies. About 3% instant access, or you can lock it up for 3 months, 6 months, a year or more for about 4.5%:
Thanks carnforth. Yes I have split up my savings in the past using their platform. As I said above I really like HL, but I'm sort of worried about having one portal no matter how regulated and protected.
You used to be able to buy gilts directly through the post office.
I may be being dumb but gilts are pretty risky short-term investments are they not? Their value can go down significantly if interests rates rise.
(Someone please correct me if I have that wrong).
It depends on their duration. You can limit risk by buying shorter dated gilts whose value will always revert to par within a foreseeable period.
But I have had a number of interesting discussions with our fund managers as to whether the concept of gilts as a “safe” investment still holds true. Of late they have been at least as volatile as equities.
My approach would be to split it up and share it across the best available rates at FSCS-protected banks (£85k in each), plus the maximum £50k in premium bonds, or... put it all in an NSI Growth bond if you can wait a year.
If it's the equity from your main home and you're having to pause before buying another one for some reason, you absolutely cannot put it at risk, so forget getting an inflation-busting return, accept a slight loss of real-value, and keep it 100% safe.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
He has Secret Service protection .. and the heart of a twenty year old according to his doctor ?
"In its fight against the $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit brought by Dominion Voting Systems, Fox News has shifted its strategy to blaming former President Donald Trump, Newsweek reported." https://twitter.com/RealNoraC/status/1648365881334939655
“A big orange man did it and ran away.”
They’ve also submitted a Simpsons clip as part of the defence filing.
Fox News is requesting that the judge overseeing the case allow it to introduce evidence showing that the network's commentary about mass voter fraud in the 2020 election were just examples of a news organization reporting on the rhetoric Trump was using – not an endorsement of his claims.
Is that really new?
The issue at stake - whether malice can be proved to the demanding legal standard - is new, or at least different from what's already been ruled on. So I can see they have at least the shadow of an argument.
Citrus said: "Against all this he [Trump] is rich and live in a beautiful place by the sea in a sunny location. And he plays golf a lot which is exercise."
Let remind you of something I have mentioned on this site, before: Of the six largest demographic groups in the US, the longest lived are Hispanic women -- who are not, on the average, rich. Treat your family and neighbors well, and you are likely to live longer.
Here's a table of life expectancies by state. After Hawaii (many East Asians) and California (many Hispanics and East Asians), the next 7 states are in the north. (Florida, which is 10th, should do better, considering its large population of Cuban-Americans.)
A real old school classic cheat (apparently all just an innocent error due to illness...apparently)
A top Scottish ultra-marathon runner has been disqualified from a race for using a car during part of the route.
Joasia Zakrzewski finished third in the 2023 GB Ultras Manchester to Liverpool 50-mile race - but is thought to have travelled by car for 2.5 miles...
Wayne Drinkwater, the director of the GB Ultras race, said that after the ultramarathon he received information that a runner had gained an "unsporting, competitive advantage during a section of the event.
On topic, tangentially: I wonder what Trump's life expectancy is now. He is officially obese, he gets little exercise, his diet is lacking, he has a poor social network, and he is under incredible stress. All those things should decrease his life expectancy, but I don't know by how much.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
He has Secret Service protection .. and the heart of a twenty year old according to his doctor ?
"In its fight against the $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit brought by Dominion Voting Systems, Fox News has shifted its strategy to blaming former President Donald Trump, Newsweek reported." https://twitter.com/RealNoraC/status/1648365881334939655
“A big orange man did it and ran away.”
They’ve also submitted a Simpsons clip as part of the defence filing.
Fox News is requesting that the judge overseeing the case allow it to introduce evidence showing that the network's commentary about mass voter fraud in the 2020 election were just examples of a news organization reporting on the rhetoric Trump was using – not an endorsement of his claims.
Is that really new?
The issue at stake - whether malice can be proved to the demanding legal standard - is new. So I can see they have at least the shadow of an argument.
But it's pretty thin.
The issue isn't new, that's why Dominion conceded they needed to prove it right at the beginning despite being a high standard. Surely it is not so much Fox shifting their strategy so much as their other strategies to dismiss the case outright have fallen away, hence going to trial, so it's just the focus on the remaining strategies which is new, rather than a shift itself?
Senior figures within the SNP have complained that the arrest of the party treasurer — just hours before Humza Yousaf made a key speech to launch his time as first minister — “stinks”.
The SNP was thrown into more chaos when Colin Beattie, a senior member of the Scottish parliament, was taken into custody as part of Operation Branchform, an investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
It is the second high-profile arrest made by officers examining concerns that £600,000 raised by SNP supporters specifically to fund a second independence referendum campaign had “gone missing”
Eyebrows had already been raised by the high-profile nature of raids this month on the Glasgow home of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, and Peter Murrell, her husband and the former SNP chief executive.
Some sources complained that the response, which included uniformed officers marching in and out of the party’s headquarters, close to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh was “disproportionate”. Murrell was arrested and questioned for 11 hours before being released....
...A senior figure in the SNP told The Times: “There’s a whole load of people going to be really angry about this, this stinks, this day of all days, that Colin Beattie would be arrested. No one would ever think there was a problem with Colin Beattie.”
A tactically unwise line to take, complaining about the way the big meanies are lookign into claims. Even if it comes to nothing in the end, despite the entertaining drama of it all it's not like they have being dragged through the streets in handcuffs.
It's like when something is leaked which reveals something bad, and the authorities are more angry about the leak than the bad thing.
Good evening everyone. Just back from a few days away with no wifi and an intermittent phone signal, so have only been able to read the headers. I hope you have all been nice to us poor Scottish nationalists. I was thinking about who it most likely to be the next person to help Police Scotland with their enquiries. My guess is: 1. Kirsten Oswald 2. Nicola Sturgeon 3. Liz Lloyd
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
When you manage to present one we'll find out.
Stupidity isn't a crime, so you’re free to go.
If stupidity becomes a defence I am out of a job. But I certainly wouldn’t classify @kinabalu as such in any event.
He shouldn't dish it out if he can't take it.
I'm not sure I can top his impressive "ffs, it's our turn" argument of earlier today anyway.
I disagree. This succinctly summarised what is the most compelling argument for Labour and SKS next time around. Time for a change after 14 years, especially when the change is more boring than frightening.
Unless Sunak manages something truly spectacular over the next 18 months it’s a winner.
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
When you manage to present one we'll find out.
Stupidity isn't a crime, so you’re free to go.
If stupidity becomes a defence I am out of a job. But I certainly wouldn’t classify @kinabalu as such in any event.
He shouldn't dish it out if he can't take it.
I'm not sure I can top his impressive "ffs, it's our turn" argument of earlier today anyway.
I disagree. This succinctly summarised what is the most compelling argument for Labour and SKS next time around. Time for a change after 14 years, especially when the change is more boring than frightening.
Unless Sunak manages something truly spectacular over the next 18 months it’s a winner.
Agreed - however it was framed it was essentially just a 'time for a change' presentation, and that if they cannot make that a winner now, when it should be an easy sell, that is a problem.
I do hope any deal includes Tucker Carlson being handed over to Dominion to perform such a job as they see fit, on minimum wage and a contract banning him from social media use, for a period of not less than forty years.
I say 9.8% which I suspect is more than what is being expected/hoped for
Current is 10.4%
It could even be higher? Maybe 10.6 or even 10.7%
I've honestly lost track of how they computers this. Logically, it should start to come down soon - fuel prices have come down, sterling has strengthened, and once the energy price subsidy withdrawal works it way out the figures it should drop a fair bit.
I'm selling my flat and will likely have a fair chunk of cash that will essentially sit idle for a while. Could anyone suggest routes for that cash that avoid bank/system risk? I had hoped to just invest directly in gilts, but I can't see a 100% route of doing that. It seems that you have to go via 'computershare'.
I have most of my investments with Hargreaves Lansdowne, and they're great, but I don't want to have all of my eggs in one basket.
It doesn't have to be Gilts - could be UST or ECB bonds. Not interested in Gold or the like.
I'd appreciate any thoughts.
The £85 000 limit goes up to £1 000 000 for 6 months for temporarily high deposits, such as real estate sales, so it's only if it is going to be sitting longer that you need to worry, it also gives you time to think:
I said they might settle during the trial; fear beat out greed in the end. Will be interesting to see the details - if made public.
Damn spoilsports is what they both are. I know Fox News were the ones involved in the case, but they were contributing well to the entertainment division if they had gone to trial.
I do hope any deal includes Tucker Carlson being handed over to Dominion to perform such a job as they see fit, on minimum wage and a contract banning him from social media use, for a period of not less than forty years.
He's a fan of Turkey; conscription there might be a recondite punishment.
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
When you manage to present one we'll find out.
Stupidity isn't a crime, so you’re free to go.
If stupidity becomes a defence I am out of a job. But I certainly wouldn’t classify @kinabalu as such in any event.
He shouldn't dish it out if he can't take it.
I'm not sure I can top his impressive "ffs, it's our turn" argument of earlier today anyway.
I disagree. This succinctly summarised what is the most compelling argument for Labour and SKS next time around. Time for a change after 14 years, especially when the change is more boring than frightening.
Unless Sunak manages something truly spectacular over the next 18 months it’s a winner.
Also- think of all the times in recent years that the government has said or implied "the public will have their say on this matter at the appropriate time, which is the next election".
The Conservatives clearly haven't governed that well since 2019, as witnessed by the double dumping of Prime Ministers. If they don't deserve to be kicked out, what exactly does a government have to do to merit that fate?
I say 9.8% which I suspect is more than what is being expected/hoped for
Current is 10.4%
It could even be higher? Maybe 10.6 or even 10.7%
I've honestly lost track of how they computers this. Logically, it should start to come down soon - fuel prices have come down, sterling has strengthened, and once the energy price subsidy withdrawal works it way out the figures it should drop a fair bit.
Indeed the 'drop out' of energy numbers will/should benefit the April numbers due mid May.
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
When you manage to present one we'll find out.
Stupidity isn't a crime, so you’re free to go.
If stupidity becomes a defence I am out of a job. But I certainly wouldn’t classify @kinabalu as such in any event.
He shouldn't dish it out if he can't take it.
I'm not sure I can top his impressive "ffs, it's our turn" argument of earlier today anyway.
I disagree. This succinctly summarised what is the most compelling argument for Labour and SKS next time around. Time for a change after 14 years, especially when the change is more boring than frightening.
Unless Sunak manages something truly spectacular over the next 18 months it’s a winner.
Not at all, it was just an exclamation of partisan frustration.
@kinabalu would be much better able to understand politics in this country - not to mention be much more influential in shaping them - if he engaged with the opposing side to understand it, rather than blithely dismiss views he doesn't agree with.
Politics doesn't work on buggins turn; it works on the electorate selecting who is best fit and able to run the country, usually on the basis of the least worst choice.
As I argued on here yesterday: "time for a change" is a lagging indicator, not a leading one - for it to resonate, there has to be a better/more attractive alternative.
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
When you manage to present one we'll find out.
Stupidity isn't a crime, so you’re free to go.
If stupidity becomes a defence I am out of a job. But I certainly wouldn’t classify @kinabalu as such in any event.
He shouldn't dish it out if he can't take it.
I'm not sure I can top his impressive "ffs, it's our turn" argument of earlier today anyway.
I disagree. This succinctly summarised what is the most compelling argument for Labour and SKS next time around. Time for a change after 14 years, especially when the change is more boring than frightening.
Unless Sunak manages something truly spectacular over the next 18 months it’s a winner.
Not at all, it was just an exclamation of partisan frustration.
@kinabalu would be much better able to understand politics in this country - not to mention be much more influential in shaping them - if he engaged with the opposing side to understand it, rather than blithely dismiss views he doesn't agree with.
Politics doesn't work on buggins turn; it works on the electorate selecting who is best fit and able to run the country, usually on the basis of the least worst choice.
As I argued on here yesterday: "time for a change" is a lagging indicator, not a leading one - for it to resonate, there has to be a better/more attractive alternative.
One of the details that came out of the Dominion stuff which just boggles my mind is how angry and upset the viewers of Fox were, and therefore how desperate to appease them the network was, about them calling Arizona for Biden, correctly as it turns out.
Yes, it shows that a large part of the audience was already buying into claims there was no way Biden could legitimately have won the state, but what is there even to be mad at Fox in that scenario? It had no impact on how the race was counted. All they said was they were calculating the outcome based on the votes as announced up to that point - and that doesn't actually contradict a 'steal' narrative as viewers could have gone 'well of course it's called for Biden, because the Dems are rigging it!'
8C and leaden skies in the rugged Primrose Hill borderlands
UGH
Quite sunny and 15° in Leicester.
Apparently the Western Isles are bathed in fine sunshine! - 18C and cloudless skies in Portreee, Skye, today
The weather map has been inverted
So far this has been one of the nastier springs I can remember. A decidedly wet, dull March - worst for forty years, is being followed by a cold grey April. It's a bit like the endless winter that was lockdown 3 in early 2021
Tho I did manage to get 9 weeks in southeast Asia from Jan to March this winter, so maybe I should wheesht ma groaning
"Haud yer wheesht" is the correct terminology. But far better to leave this to the professionals.
(hwiːʃ ) or wheesht (hwiːʃt ) Scottish. exclamation. 1. a plea or demand for silence; hush. verb.
Yes. As in "wheesht!" = shut up. I've never seen it employed as a transitive verb though. "Haud yer wheesht" is the phrase usually used. Against stiff competition I would say that innapropriate use of Scottish terminology is your most annoying habit!
Incredibly stiff competition but I'm going to have to disagree.
Constantly saying the Spectator is "intellectually high powered".
This makes me grind my teeth and sometimes even log off.
That's because your response to any cogent intellectual argument from the other side is to just pompously dismiss them as a 'reactionary' and move on.
I suppose it's easier than dealing with the argument, though, and taxes the brain less.
When you manage to present one we'll find out.
Stupidity isn't a crime, so you’re free to go.
If stupidity becomes a defence I am out of a job. But I certainly wouldn’t classify @kinabalu as such in any event.
He shouldn't dish it out if he can't take it.
I'm not sure I can top his impressive "ffs, it's our turn" argument of earlier today anyway.
I disagree. This succinctly summarised what is the most compelling argument for Labour and SKS next time around. Time for a change after 14 years, especially when the change is more boring than frightening.
Unless Sunak manages something truly spectacular over the next 18 months it’s a winner.
Also- think of all the times in recent years that the government has said or implied "the public will have their say on this matter at the appropriate time, which is the next election".
The Conservatives clearly haven't governed that well since 2019, as witnessed by the double dumping of Prime Ministers. If they don't deserve to be kicked out, what exactly does a government have to do to merit that fate?
This is just frustration that the electorate might just eventually reach a conclusion different to you that pisses you off though?
It doesn't matter if you think it's fair or your turn. If the alternative isn't attractive or convincing the electorate may well decide that Boris/Truss being gone is enough and to stick with nurse.
It's no good chiding them for it - because that implies you're not listening and they'll simply do it again and again.
This surprised me: "In yet another attack on the wallets of the American consumer, the U.S. Postal Service has announced that this summer it will raise the rate to mail a first-class letter from 63 cents to 66 cents. Outrageous!
The columnist, Paul Waldman, says that, in the UK, a first-class letter costs a $1.21. Is he right?
(Incidentally, the US Post Office has to raise rates, because they are short of people. And because "Unlike nearly every other federal agency, it’s supposed to pay for itself". Not that it always does, but it is supposed to try to do that.)
One of the details that came out of the Dominion stuff which just boggles my mind is how angry and upset the viewers of Fox were, and therefore how desperate to appease them the network was, about them calling Arizona for Biden, correctly as it turns out.
Yes, it shows that a large part of the audience was already buying into claims there was no way Biden could legitimately have won the state, but what is there even to be mad at Fox in that scenario? It had no impact on how the race was counted. All they said was they were calculating the outcome based on the votes as announced up to that point - and that doesn't actually contradict a 'steal' narrative as viewers could have gone 'well of course it's called for Biden, because the Dems are rigging it!'
"We are pleased to have reached a settlement of our dispute with Dominion Voting Systems. We acknowledge the Court’s rulings finding certain claims about Dominion to be false. This settlement reflects FOX’s continued commitment to the highest journalistic standards.
We are hopeful that our decision to resolve this dispute with Dominion amicably, instead of the acrimony of a divisive trial, allows the country to move forward from these issues."
We are pleased to have reached a settlement as we were not wholly confident we would win. We acknowledge the court ruling certain claims were false, so don't worry viewers we are not conceding it was all false, and it was just that nasty court saying it anyway, so we will still look after Big Don in other ways. This settlement acknowledges our journalistic standards were not high, hence us having to settle, but let's pretend we care about that.
Let us also pretend settling minutes before a trial starting after a year and more of litigation is settling things acrimony. We will now try to 'move forward', which as you all know is political code for 'let us never speak of this again'.
Comments
A few people's arses must be making buttons at this point to be briefing this kind of nonsense to The Times.
Even in 2016 he was the 5/1 shot that came in - it required results in all the key swing states to come in for him, in just the right way, and most models gave those stacked odds only a 20% chance, at best.
Thing is sometimes 20% chances come in. However, this time Independents and the Democrats are wise to it - and the latter much less complacent and arrogant, whilst Trump himself seems to be doing everything possible to alienate the former - so I think that makes it much harder for him to slip through the grate.
Your analysis as always is excellent. An oasis of common sense (along with a dwindling band of a number of others) in an expanding desert of humourless, mindless partisan ramping and childish ya boo sucks cheerleading.
Is that the way out?
As Dominic Raab inquiry nears end, there’s one thing tha I’m told has made process particularly daunting for complainants. They got message @LucyJMcDaid & I have seen) saying deputy pm will see all evidence. That’s for his right of reply-but some haven’t taken part cos of that.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1648403039559057412
He won three general elections and was Prime Minister for 14 years in total, so it's not all bad news for Yousaf.
Former cabinet minister David Davis says the new election rules that make it mandatory for voters to present photo ID before casting a ballot are an attempt to prevent a fraud that he argues "doesn't happen"."
https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-2023-david-davis-calls-for-delay-to-new-voter-photo-id-rules-to-prevent-hundreds-of-thousands-being-blocked-from-casting-ballots-12860103
Last autumn the American owner of the houseboat in the James River that I was staying on insisted on taking me out to dinner with his wife; I assume that a solo British traveller with a dog was sufficiently novel in deepest Virginia to justify making the offer. Everything they said during the meal put their politics out on the right wing, well beyond most of our Tories, and as we moved towards coffee I thought I’d have a little fun by telling them how highly regarded Bernie Sanders is in the UK. To my amazement they agreed with me and revealed themselves as lifelong Democrats.
You used to be able to buy gilts directly through the post office.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65316762
Just one more person named on the accounts that they haven't spoken to yet...
(PS Disappointing that my hilarious riff on 'surprising on the upside' passed everyone by.)
Compared with where they were six months ago, the Conservatives have given themselves half a chance - my analogy would be the team which has gone in at half time five down. They've pulled a couple back but it's past the hour mark. There's still a chance and the team in front is looking less confident but at 5-2 down, the last thing you want to do is concede again so it's attack all the time and hope the defence doesn't get caught..
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/17/dianne-feinstein-judiciary-committee-00092360
The first is that, if it continues, it will put a major dent in the Democrats ability to push through federal judges.
The second is around the California Senator race. Feinstein will be out in 24 but if she quits before then (and calls will grow if that doesn't get resolved), Newsom has already said he will pick a Black Woman to replace her, which effectively means those such as Katie Porter and Adam Schliff will see their races dashed. So I'd expect to see their campaigns push for her to stay until 24 where they would have a better chance to win the nomination.
And, though I hate mentioning this, presidents and presidential candidates are often, shall we say, targeted, by men who don't like them.
(If I were a serious bettor, I think I would try to get some estimates on those factors, before betting on Trump.)
(Someone please correct me if I have that wrong).
Let's put it this way. Have the forces that propelled him to victory in 2016 and near victory in 2020 changed? I'd argued not and some of them have arguably intensified.
The OP might look at Raisin as an alternative platform that offers access to a range of protected high interest investments.
"In the 1997 UK general election, Tony Blair won the Sedgefield constituency with a total of 33,251 votes."
Not _quite_ as wrong, but still 'off'.
Fox News is requesting that the judge overseeing the case allow it to introduce evidence showing that the network's commentary about mass voter fraud in the 2020 election were just examples of a news organization reporting on the rhetoric Trump was using – not an endorsement of his claims.
Is that really new? I mean, I had thought that was part of their strategy from the beginning, that they were just talking about newsworthy things - whilst Dominion has been arguing Fox did not give time to countering the false claims reported on (despite being given the information many times), and that internal communications demonstrate they did that (and focused relentlessly on guests spewing falsehoods) to protect their bottom line at the expense of their journalistic integrity (no sniggering).
(Oddly, he resembled Brian Blessed closely, and in more ways than having a beard.)
It's like when something is leaked which reveals something bad, and the authorities are more angry about the leak than the bad thing.
Then a local paper dug up a whole series of photos and stories of Boris posing with the owner of said 'police station' and saying how marvellous it all was, how the owner was a pillar of the community etc etc.
Rather more silent on that front now from the SCons.
Exclusive: Planned fingerprint and facial biometric checks will be delayed until ‘after Paris Olympics’"
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/eu-entry-visa-brexit-etias-b2321561.html
But I have had a number of interesting discussions with our fund managers as to whether the concept of gilts as a “safe” investment still holds true. Of late they have been at least as volatile as equities.
Taking on bullies is not without costs to oneself. Does Whitehall run on different principles generally or something, as it seems like the people who interact with a Cabinet Minister should be aware of such?
I did have a friend, many years ago, who was a paraplegic. He loved golf though. As it was a military wound, he was given special permission by Ross Golf Club to drive a modified trolley anywhere - including onto the greens - so he could play. Watching him lean out to play a drive was quite something.
And welcome. You will fit right in...
https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/donald-trump-reveals-how-many-holes-in-one-he-has-had
A top Scottish ultra-marathon runner has been disqualified from a race for using a car during part of the route.
Joasia Zakrzewski finished third in the 2023 GB Ultras Manchester to Liverpool 50-mile race - but is thought to have travelled by car for 2.5 miles...
Wayne Drinkwater, the director of the GB Ultras race, said that after the ultramarathon he received information that a runner had gained an "unsporting, competitive advantage during a section of the event.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65314241
https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1648374625280163840
I'm not sure I can top his impressive "ffs, it's our turn" argument of earlier today anyway.
If it's the equity from your main home and you're having to pause before buying another one for some reason, you absolutely cannot put it at risk, so forget getting an inflation-busting return, accept a slight loss of real-value, and keep it 100% safe.
But it's pretty thin.
I say 9.8% which I suspect is more than what is being expected/hoped for
Current is 10.4%
Let remind you of something I have mentioned on this site, before: Of the six largest demographic groups in the US, the longest lived are Hispanic women -- who are not, on the average, rich. Treat your family and neighbors well, and you are likely to live longer.
Here's a table of life expectancies by state.
After Hawaii (many East Asians) and California (many Hispanics and East Asians), the next 7 states are in the north. (Florida, which is 10th, should do better, considering its large population of Cuban-Americans.)
It's US comedy/drama about a hitman who moves to LA and decides to become an actor, created by and starring Bill Hader (ex SNL)
I've just watched the first series and loved it
I can't wait to see the next three
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5348176/
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/barry
1. Kirsten Oswald
2. Nicola Sturgeon
3. Liz Lloyd
Unless Sunak manages something truly spectacular over the next 18 months it’s a winner.
I'm up for series 3 shortly.
Henry Winkler's best performance, too.
I said they might settle during the trial; fear beat out greed in the end. Will be interesting to see the details - if made public.
I've honestly lost track of how they computers this. Logically, it should start to come down soon - fuel prices have come down, sterling has strengthened, and once the energy price subsidy withdrawal works it way out the figures it should drop a fair bit.
The Conservatives clearly haven't governed that well since 2019, as witnessed by the double dumping of Prime Ministers. If they don't deserve to be kicked out, what exactly does a government have to do to merit that fate?
But 10.6% tomorrow would be seen as a * show!
On the quiche/flan question, I suppose Coronation Quiche sounds better than much you can do with flan..
The Formal Flimflam Flan?
@kinabalu would be much better able to understand politics in this country - not to mention be much more influential in shaping them - if he engaged with the opposing side to understand it, rather than blithely dismiss views he doesn't agree with.
Politics doesn't work on buggins turn; it works on the electorate selecting who is best fit and able to run the country, usually on the basis of the least worst choice.
As I argued on here yesterday: "time for a change" is a lagging indicator, not a leading one - for it to resonate, there has to be a better/more attractive alternative.
Expectations seem to be 9.8-9.9% so I'd guess 9.6%.
Yes, it shows that a large part of the audience was already buying into claims there was no way Biden could legitimately have won the state, but what is there even to be mad at Fox in that scenario? It had no impact on how the race was counted. All they said was they were calculating the outcome based on the votes as announced up to that point - and that doesn't actually contradict a 'steal' narrative as viewers could have gone 'well of course it's called for Biden, because the Dems are rigging it!'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65305979
It doesn't matter if you think it's fair or your turn. If the alternative isn't attractive or convincing the electorate may well decide that Boris/Truss being gone is enough and to stick with nurse.
It's no good chiding them for it - because that implies you're not listening and they'll simply do it again and again.
But before you start painting your protest placard, you should know that the United States enjoys some of the lowest postal rates in the developed world. So if the Postal Service wants a few more cents, we ought to cough them up."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/17/usps-rate-increase-66-cents/
sourrce: https://www.dpdhl.com/content/dam/dpdhl/en/media-center/media-relations/documents/2022/letter-prices-in-europe-2022.pdf
The columnist, Paul Waldman, says that, in the UK, a first-class letter costs a $1.21. Is he right?
(Incidentally, the US Post Office has to raise rates, because they are short of people. And because "Unlike nearly every other federal agency, it’s supposed to pay for itself". Not that it always does, but it is supposed to try to do that.)
"We are pleased to have reached a settlement of our dispute with Dominion Voting Systems. We acknowledge the Court’s rulings finding certain claims about Dominion to be false. This settlement reflects FOX’s continued commitment to the highest journalistic standards.
We are hopeful that our decision to resolve this dispute with Dominion amicably, instead of the acrimony of a divisive trial, allows the country to move forward from these issues."
We are pleased to have reached a settlement as we were not wholly confident we would win. We acknowledge the court ruling certain claims were false, so don't worry viewers we are not conceding it was all false, and it was just that nasty court saying it anyway, so we will still look after Big Don in other ways. This settlement acknowledges our journalistic standards were not high, hence us having to settle, but let's pretend we care about that.
Let us also pretend settling minutes before a trial starting after a year and more of litigation is settling things acrimony. We will now try to 'move forward', which as you all know is political code for 'let us never speak of this again'.