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What will tomorrow do to Trump’s WH2024 hopes? – politicalbetting.com

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    One of 'Horse B's' earliest posts....
    "I feel like former Johnson supporters feel like former Corbyn supporters. And that is okay, we all make mistakes. We grow."
    Based on that and some of his other early posts, I'm pretty sure Horse B's relationship to CHB is the same as Richard Bachman's to Stephen King.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    Horse_B said:

    Roger said:

    I'm not sure Rishi and Suella's Muslim bashing is a very wise idea.....

    I'd thought he was quite a refreshing choice when he was chosen in that he seemed quite a serious person and possibly knew what he was doing.

    I was wrong. He's become a Tory parody. He's discarding his USP's like a string of broken pearls

    You do know Sunak refused to endorse Braverman's comments today when interviewed by the media
    He still keeps her on as Home Secretary though.
    She’s doing a decent job to be fair. Not flashy but she’s clearly trying to at least stop the boats.
    The next plan is to make a big ‘England, this way’ signpost and erect it mid-Channel pointing back to France.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,592
    Horse_B said:

    I’m a long time lurker and I know we do not try and doxx people or try and say somebody is somebody else. There are plenty of people that come and go under different names and is respected.

    I am not Horse. We can leave it at that. No more.

    If you are not Horse, why do you use the handle Horse_B?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    REGULAR PB POSTER ANALYSIS

    Labour Herd 15
    Intel Labour/centre-left 18
    LD 7
    Nats 6
    Neutral 19
    Tory /Tory leaning 23
    Centre-right 18

    Total: 106 posters

    Histogram analysis shows the first two categories post more than the last two in the ratio of about 60:40 or 65:35, depending (roughly) on how well/badly the Tories are doing at the time.

    Assuming this is serious, well done on attempting it. I bet we'd all love to see where we've been categorised though!
    What constitutes a regular poster, I wonder.
    Someone who's posted in the last 12 months, who I've clocked.
    I'm disappointed that you didn't scrape vanilla forums with a Python script as I had - naturally - assumed.
    I don't know how to do that.
    So go on @Casino_Royale - where do I fit in? I promise I won't take offense. I'm guessing one of the last three categories? Your analysis of course - you can categorise how you like, and your results are interesting.

    I would have categorised as follows:
    Lab
    Con
    LD
    SNP
    Alba
    PC
    Non-aligned generally left
    Non-aligned generally right (where I'd place myself)
    Neutral
    Guest posters from overseas

    I'd expect to place most in categories 7,8 and 9.

    But that's as much as I've done. I can't criticse yours until I've done at least as much work as you have. Which isn't going to happen tonight as I have the online shop to finish.
    Good proposal. You might add Green.

    Put me down in Non-aligned generally left.
    I did consider Green, but then wasn't sure we had any. Dura Ace?
    I have voted Green in five consecutive general elections, and was for some years a GPEW member. I even delivered leaflets.

    I'd suggest avoiding party labels for this sort of thing, as there's quite a bit of variety within each party. If we really wanted to do this I would think we'd want to use Baxter's 3 dimensions of British politics, using which he defines seven British political tribes - see https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_2021.html

    Since we wouldn't be able to get every poster to self-report their political position, the easiest way to do it would be to present those posters interested with head-to-head match-ups of pairs of posters, and ask which was more to the left or right on one of the axes. Then you'd only need the absolute results from a few posters from doing the poll to anchor where the other posters fit, and you could classify everyone in terms of the seven tribes.

    But it does seem like a lot of work.
  • Horse_BHorse_B Posts: 106
    Barnesian said:

    Horse_B said:

    I’m a long time lurker and I know we do not try and doxx people or try and say somebody is somebody else. There are plenty of people that come and go under different names and is respected.

    I am not Horse. We can leave it at that. No more.

    If you are not Horse, why do you use the handle Horse_B?
    Because Horse and Horse_A were taken
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    edited April 2023
    Horse_B said:

    Barnesian said:

    Horse_B said:

    I’m a long time lurker and I know we do not try and doxx people or try and say somebody is somebody else. There are plenty of people that come and go under different names and is respected.

    I am not Horse. We can leave it at that. No more.

    If you are not Horse, why do you use the handle Horse_B?
    Because Horse and Horse_A were taken
    Your story is half true:
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/Horse
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/Horse_A

    :D

    So, who is the original @Horse?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,090
    edited April 2023

    One of 'Horse B's' earliest posts....
    "I feel like former Johnson supporters feel like former Corbyn supporters. And that is okay, we all make mistakes. We grow."
    Based on that and some of his other early posts, I'm pretty sure Horse B's relationship to CHB is the same as Richard Bachman's to Stephen King.

    He is masquerading as a conservative voter and frankly it disrespects the forum and is simply dishonest
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,592
    Horse_B said:

    Barnesian said:

    Horse_B said:

    I’m a long time lurker and I know we do not try and doxx people or try and say somebody is somebody else. There are plenty of people that come and go under different names and is respected.

    I am not Horse. We can leave it at that. No more.

    If you are not Horse, why do you use the handle Horse_B?
    Because Horse and Horse_A were taken
    Otherwise you would have used them?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    REGULAR PB POSTER ANALYSIS

    Labour Herd 15
    Intel Labour/centre-left 18
    LD 7
    Nats 6
    Neutral 19
    Tory /Tory leaning 23
    Centre-right 18

    Total: 106 posters

    Histogram analysis shows the first two categories post more than the last two in the ratio of about 60:40 or 65:35, depending (roughly) on how well/badly the Tories are doing at the time.

    Assuming this is serious, well done on attempting it. I bet we'd all love to see where we've been categorised though!
    What constitutes a regular poster, I wonder.
    Someone who's posted in the last 12 months, who I've clocked.
    I'm disappointed that you didn't scrape vanilla forums with a Python script as I had - naturally - assumed.
    I don't know how to do that.
    So go on @Casino_Royale - where do I fit in? I promise I won't take offense. I'm guessing one of the last three categories? Your analysis of course - you can categorise how you like, and your results are interesting.

    I would have categorised as follows:
    Lab
    Con
    LD
    SNP
    Alba
    PC
    Non-aligned generally left
    Non-aligned generally right (where I'd place myself)
    Neutral
    Guest posters from overseas

    I'd expect to place most in categories 7,8 and 9.

    But that's as much as I've done. I can't criticse yours until I've done at least as much work as you have. Which isn't going to happen tonight as I have the online shop to finish.
    Good proposal. You might add Green.

    Put me down in Non-aligned generally left.
    I did consider Green, but then wasn't sure we had any. Dura Ace?
    I have voted Green in five consecutive general elections, and was for some years a GPEW member. I even delivered leaflets.

    I'd suggest avoiding party labels for this sort of thing, as there's quite a bit of variety within each party. If we really wanted to do this I would think we'd want to use Baxter's 3 dimensions of British politics, using which he defines seven British political tribes - see https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_2021.html

    Since we wouldn't be able to get every poster to self-report their political position, the easiest way to do it would be to present those posters interested with head-to-head match-ups of pairs of posters, and ask which was more to the left or right on one of the axes. Then you'd only need the absolute results from a few posters from doing the poll to anchor where the other posters fit, and you could classify everyone in terms of the seven tribes.

    But it does seem like a lot of work.
    It would nonetheless be interesting to take an actual opinion poll here. Not what party does someone belong to, but who would they vote for if there were a general election tomorrow (and taking into account their seat and tactical voting).

    I reckon most people would be happy to respond. I would vote Lib Dem, as usual.
  • Horse_BHorse_B Posts: 106
    Barnesian said:

    Horse_B said:

    Barnesian said:

    Horse_B said:

    I’m a long time lurker and I know we do not try and doxx people or try and say somebody is somebody else. There are plenty of people that come and go under different names and is respected.

    I am not Horse. We can leave it at that. No more.

    If you are not Horse, why do you use the handle Horse_B?
    Because Horse and Horse_A were taken
    Otherwise you would have used them?
    Yes
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369

    One of 'Horse B's' earliest posts....
    "I feel like former Johnson supporters feel like former Corbyn supporters. And that is okay, we all make mistakes. We grow."
    Based on that and some of his other early posts, I'm pretty sure Horse B's relationship to CHB is the same as Richard Bachman's to Stephen King.

    He is masquerading as a conservative voter and frankly it disrespects the forum and is simply dishonest
    Worse, it's boring.

    And I should know.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    NATO expansion, Trump's mugshot everyhere....

    Difficult day for his bessy, Putin.
  • Horse_BHorse_B Posts: 106
    I’ve voted Tory in 2017 and 2019. I won’t be voting Tory again whilst they don’t stop the boats.
  • Horse_B said:

    I’ve voted Tory in 2017 and 2019. I won’t be voting Tory again whilst they don’t stop the boats.

    I believe @CorrectHorseBattery3 claimed the same
  • Horse_BHorse_B Posts: 106
    Sadly I was too young to vote prior to 2017 but I’d have voted Tory in 2015 if I could
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    TimS said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    REGULAR PB POSTER ANALYSIS

    Labour Herd 15
    Intel Labour/centre-left 18
    LD 7
    Nats 6
    Neutral 19
    Tory /Tory leaning 23
    Centre-right 18

    Total: 106 posters

    Histogram analysis shows the first two categories post more than the last two in the ratio of about 60:40 or 65:35, depending (roughly) on how well/badly the Tories are doing at the time.

    Assuming this is serious, well done on attempting it. I bet we'd all love to see where we've been categorised though!
    What constitutes a regular poster, I wonder.
    Someone who's posted in the last 12 months, who I've clocked.
    I'm disappointed that you didn't scrape vanilla forums with a Python script as I had - naturally - assumed.
    I don't know how to do that.
    So go on @Casino_Royale - where do I fit in? I promise I won't take offense. I'm guessing one of the last three categories? Your analysis of course - you can categorise how you like, and your results are interesting.

    I would have categorised as follows:
    Lab
    Con
    LD
    SNP
    Alba
    PC
    Non-aligned generally left
    Non-aligned generally right (where I'd place myself)
    Neutral
    Guest posters from overseas

    I'd expect to place most in categories 7,8 and 9.

    But that's as much as I've done. I can't criticse yours until I've done at least as much work as you have. Which isn't going to happen tonight as I have the online shop to finish.
    Good proposal. You might add Green.

    Put me down in Non-aligned generally left.
    I did consider Green, but then wasn't sure we had any. Dura Ace?
    I have voted Green in five consecutive general elections, and was for some years a GPEW member. I even delivered leaflets.

    I'd suggest avoiding party labels for this sort of thing, as there's quite a bit of variety within each party. If we really wanted to do this I would think we'd want to use Baxter's 3 dimensions of British politics, using which he defines seven British political tribes - see https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_2021.html

    Since we wouldn't be able to get every poster to self-report their political position, the easiest way to do it would be to present those posters interested with head-to-head match-ups of pairs of posters, and ask which was more to the left or right on one of the axes. Then you'd only need the absolute results from a few posters from doing the poll to anchor where the other posters fit, and you could classify everyone in terms of the seven tribes.

    But it does seem like a lot of work.
    It would nonetheless be interesting to take an actual opinion poll here. Not what party does someone belong to, but who would they vote for if there were a general election tomorrow (and taking into account their seat and tactical voting).

    I reckon most people would be happy to respond. I would vote Lib Dem, as usual.
    Part of Casino's point with his supposed analysis is that the lefty herd is intimidating right-wing voices on here and driving them off, so although such a poll would be interesting at an anecdotal level, insofar as a few posters might surprise with their answer, you'd have all sorts of arguments about non-response bias and shy-Tory syndrome...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    Breaking: ARREST MADE AFTER STOLEN CAR FOUND NEAR CLIFF EDGE AT COMPTON
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: ARREST MADE AFTER STOLEN CAR FOUND NEAR CLIFF EDGE AT COMPTON

    Some context, please?
  • IanB2 said:

    Breaking: ARREST MADE AFTER STOLEN CAR FOUND NEAR CLIFF EDGE AT COMPTON

    Where is Compton
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: ARREST MADE AFTER STOLEN CAR FOUND NEAR CLIFF EDGE AT COMPTON

    Some context, please?
    https://www.islandecho.co.uk/arrest-made-after-stolen-car-found-near-cliff-edge-at-compton/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    The big news isn't Trump, it's Nigel Lawson. An immense politician.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    NATO expansion, Trump's mugshot everyhere....

    Difficult day for his bessy, Putin.
    I don't know, how could he possibly have forseen that constantly making angry threats about how people should not join NATO or else, and then invading a non-NATO country, would lead to a bordering country to think they might need to take more steps to defend themselves? He is a foreign policy genius after all.

    Then again I'm pretty sure the Russians have literally suggested defending against their attacks is a vicious escalation, so I could be wrong about that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    carnforth said:
    A typical Tory. A hypocrite from root to tip. A Brexiteer who had a second home on the Cote d'Azur which he tried to remain in despite the 90 day rule which he clearly didn't understand or thought it didn't affect him
  • Horse_BHorse_B Posts: 106
    Roger said:

    carnforth said:
    A typical Tory. A hypocrite from root to tip. A Brexiteer who had a second home on the Cote d'Azur which he tried to remain in despite the 90 day rule which he clearly didn't understand or thought it didn't affect him
    Disrespectful. The person has just died. Have some respect.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Roger said:

    carnforth said:
    A typical Tory. A hypocrite from root to tip. A Brexiteer who had a second home on the Cote d'Azur which he tried to remain in despite the 90 day rule which he clearly didn't understand or thought it didn't affect him
    Maybe he just applied for the french version of settled status and payed his taxes in france like a good boy. Do you have inside info to the contrary Rog?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Andy_JS said:

    The big news isn't Trump, it's Nigel Lawson. An immense politician.

    On here that may be the case. Without in any way being unkind to Lawson, no doubt a major figure in his day and still a prominent commentator for many today, he was from an entirely different political era. A great many people will have no memory of him as an active politician, beyond occasionally popping up as a pundit. That's not to diminish him, just that like most people his heyday in the public consciousness was quite some time ago.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    "Had Credit Suisse not been sold to UBS, it would have gone bankrupt next trading day, causing global financial crisis, SNB's Schlegel said." (SNB = Swiss National Bank)

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/credit-suisse-faced-bankruptcy-without-ubs-deal-snb-s-schlegel
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited April 2023
    On topic the short term result is drama, and Trump always likes drama. In particular it sidelines his opponents in the primary race. But the primary race hasn't started so that doesn't matter yet.

    I think the rest is kind of a grind? There will be lots of procedural wrangling, the witnesses will be in the news, and then presumably there will be more indictments for the bigger stuff. He has to double down on his crimes more, it looks icky to most of the voters but obviously not the die-hard MAGA people.

    If Biden runs there's no Dem race so the independents tend to vote on the GOP side where they can do that. There's definitely an opportunity for *somebody*. Not convinced it's DeSantis.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Barnesian said:

    Horse_B said:

    I’m a long time lurker and I know we do not try and doxx people or try and say somebody is somebody else. There are plenty of people that come and go under different names and is respected.

    I am not Horse. We can leave it at that. No more.

    If you are not Horse, why do you use the handle Horse_B?
    Short for Horse_But_Not_Horse.
    We all know who it is, but we’re told it’s bad form to say so. Humour the poor equine.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Roger said:

    carnforth said:
    A typical Tory. A hypocrite from root to tip. A Brexiteer who had a second home on the Cote d'Azur which he tried to remain in despite the 90 day rule which he clearly didn't understand or thought it didn't affect him
    Were you neighbours Rog? :D
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Nigel Lawson was also a major climate change sceptic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    The US ideological struggle in one headline.

    Drag Queen Story Hour goes on despite neo-Nazi’s attempt to burn church down
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/03/drag-queen-story-hour-chesterland-community-church
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    RELEASE THE DON
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Leon said:

    RELEASE THE DON

    Have a heart.
    We haven’t seen him locked up yet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303

    NATO expansion, Trump's mugshot everyhere....

    Difficult day for his bessy, Putin.
    Putin has a tough year ahead.

    While he is the best salesman for NATO membership, ever, it’s going to be hard to get the steak knife set again.

    Whose left? Switzerland? Ireland?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    In honesty, I don't know which is worse for America: a second Trump victory or four more years of rampant and advancing Wokeness

    Neither is good, both are very bad, But let me play devil's advocate: if Trump wins again his narcissism will be satisfied and he will then retire (vindicated and a very old man). Then to be replaced by a more sane Republican versus a Democrat who is not 103 years old

    Putin would probably seize Ukraine, although Putin might be MORE wary of a very unstable genius like Trump so who knows. Likewise China and Xi Jinping

    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I would prefer De Santis 10000 times over, but if it came to it, I can seen arguments for Trump, I don't know if it is a winning argument. Feel free to ban me
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Leon said:


    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I don't understand this. Isn't the great tide of terrifying wokeness that's going to destroy America all about liberal professors in universities and out-of-control HR departments in Woke Corporations and drag queens in liberal states and things like that? How does changing the president stop it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342

    Leon said:


    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I don't understand this. Isn't the great tide of terrifying wokeness that's going to destroy America all about liberal professors in universities and out-of-control HR departments in Woke Corporations and drag queens in liberal states and things like that? How does changing the president stop it?
    Because you have to start somewhere. At the top is a good place
  • TresTres Posts: 2,701
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I don't understand this. Isn't the great tide of terrifying wokeness that's going to destroy America all about liberal professors in universities and out-of-control HR departments in Woke Corporations and drag queens in liberal states and things like that? How does changing the president stop it?
    Because you have to start somewhere. At the top is a good place
    All the 'woke' in corporations was happening while Trump was in charge. It didn't just start last year, if anything it has abated a little.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,701
    Leon said:

    In honesty, I don't know which is worse for America: a second Trump victory or four more years of rampant and advancing Wokeness

    Neither is good, both are very bad, But let me play devil's advocate: if Trump wins again his narcissism will be satisfied and he will then retire (vindicated and a very old man). Then to be replaced by a more sane Republican versus a Democrat who is not 103 years old

    Putin would probably seize Ukraine, although Putin might be MORE wary of a very unstable genius like Trump so who knows. Likewise China and Xi Jinping

    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I would prefer De Santis 10000 times over, but if it came to it, I can seen arguments for Trump, I don't know if it is a winning argument. Feel free to ban me

    Why would Putin be wary of Trump. Trump wouldn't have lifted a finger to defend Kiev.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848
    Leon said:

    RELEASE THE DON

    LOCK HIM UP!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    In honesty, I don't know which is worse for America: a second Trump victory or four more years of rampant and advancing Wokeness

    Neither is good, both are very bad, But let me play devil's advocate: if Trump wins again his narcissism will be satisfied and he will then retire (vindicated and a very old man). Then to be replaced by a more sane Republican versus a Democrat who is not 103 years old

    Putin would probably seize Ukraine, although Putin might be MORE wary of a very unstable genius like Trump so who knows. Likewise China and Xi Jinping

    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I would prefer De Santis 10000 times over, but if it came to it, I can seen arguments for Trump, I don't know if it is a winning argument. Feel free to ban me

    Wokeness and populism are both bad. What we need are elites that are in touch with ordinary people, like we used to have until about 25 years ago. People a bit like Nigel Lawson in fact.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Thread on the grooming gangs:

    1/ Lots of people are spreading this misinformation about the role ethnicity has played in the grooming gang scandal. This is the biggest race hate scandal in 21st century Britain so we need to get it right. Thread…

    https://twitter.com/cdp1882/status/1642900173843050498
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    On Lord Lawson RIP I once travelled in SQ First with him and Lady Lawson the only other pax. Politeness personified, “please” “thank you” and “that’s so kind”. The crew clearly loved him. It was said of Mrs T she was genuinely solicitous and kind with Downing St staff even if a monster with her colleagues.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023

    Thread on the grooming gangs:

    1/ Lots of people are spreading this misinformation about the role ethnicity has played in the grooming gang scandal. This is the biggest race hate scandal in 21st century Britain so we need to get it right. Thread…

    https://twitter.com/cdp1882/status/1642900173843050498

    Why do some people keep asserting that "the majority of X type of offenders are white"? Of course they are, because around 85% of the population of this country is in that category. (Not referring to anyone on PB).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Per The Times:

    "Royal Mail has apologised after a manager announced a big pay rise for striking staff in what turned out to be an April Fool’s prank.

    A letter seen by staff said the company and the Communication Workers Union had “reached an agreement” after months of strikes. It detailed a breakthrough salary increase of 11 per cent, backdated to April last year, and said staff would be able to use their own cars to make deliveries.

    The notice was put up at the Royal Mail Gloucester North branch, but was shared widely because it encouraged staff to spread the word on social media.

    Celebrations turned to anger when workers realised it was a prank........."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577

    Leon said:

    RELEASE THE DON

    LOCK HIM UP!
    Announce his sentence. Then give him

    FOUR. MORE. YEARS!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577

    NATO expansion, Trump's mugshot everyhere....

    Difficult day for his bessy, Putin.
    Putin has a tough year ahead.

    While he is the best salesman for NATO membership, ever, it’s going to be hard to get the steak knife set again.

    Whose left? Switzerland? Ireland?
    Belarus....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The big news isn't Trump, it's Nigel Lawson. An immense politician.

    Not after the diet.
    The Shar-Pei puppy look never works on an older guy...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,263

    DavidL said:

    Nigel Lawson has passed away, aged 91.

    His book, the View from Number 11, is one of the very best political books I have ever read. He didn't go by chronology but by topic and as a result gave really fascinating insights as to how policy was formed and the limitations on government. It is a good innings but that is sad news. An intellectual giant compared to almost anyone in any political party today.
    His views on climate change haven't aged well.
    Bringing the Western economies to their knees on the strength of totally unremarkable changes in climate is going to age a lot worse.
    You either don't have a clue, or you have some sort of dishonest agenda.
    I thought Lawson’s view was:

    - Climate change is happening
    - He wasn’t convinced it was entire anthropomorphic
    - Given 2 he felt mitigation was a better use of limited resources than carbon reduction

    It may be wrong but it’s not some kind of heinous position

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,263
    RobD said:

    Horse_B said:

    Barnesian said:

    Horse_B said:

    I’m a long time lurker and I know we do not try and doxx people or try and say somebody is somebody else. There are plenty of people that come and go under different names and is respected.

    I am not Horse. We can leave it at that. No more.

    If you are not Horse, why do you use the handle Horse_B?
    Because Horse and Horse_A were taken
    Your story is half true:
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/Horse
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/Horse_A

    :D

    So, who is the original @Horse?
    I am @Horse

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    MikeL said:

    Per The Times:

    "Royal Mail has apologised after a manager announced a big pay rise for striking staff in what turned out to be an April Fool’s prank.

    A letter seen by staff said the company and the Communication Workers Union had “reached an agreement” after months of strikes. It detailed a breakthrough salary increase of 11 per cent, backdated to April last year, and said staff would be able to use their own cars to make deliveries.

    The notice was put up at the Royal Mail Gloucester North branch, but was shared widely because it encouraged staff to spread the word on social media.

    Celebrations turned to anger when workers realised it was a prank........."

    That's a cracking April fools tbh
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,263
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Per The Times:

    "Royal Mail has apologised after a manager announced a big pay rise for striking staff in what turned out to be an April Fool’s prank.

    A letter seen by staff said the company and the Communication Workers Union had “reached an agreement” after months of strikes. It detailed a breakthrough salary increase of 11 per cent, backdated to April last year, and said staff would be able to use their own cars to make deliveries.

    The notice was put up at the Royal Mail Gloucester North branch, but was shared widely because it encouraged staff to spread the word on social media.

    Celebrations turned to anger when workers realised it was a prank........."

    That's a cracking April fools tbh
    Nah - it’s hurtful. A prank shouldn’t be that.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,263
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I don't understand this. Isn't the great tide of terrifying wokeness that's going to destroy America all about liberal professors in universities and out-of-control HR departments in Woke Corporations and drag queens in liberal states and things like that? How does changing the president stop it?
    Because you have to start somewhere. At the top is a good place
    What specific woke thing has Biden done?

    Take your time.
    He woke up this morning.

    I think.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,662
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I don't understand this. Isn't the great tide of terrifying wokeness that's going to destroy America all about liberal professors in universities and out-of-control HR departments in Woke Corporations and drag queens in liberal states and things like that? How does changing the president stop it?
    Because you have to start somewhere. At the top is a good place
    What specific woke thing has Biden done?

    Take your time.
    He’s quite woke on trans issues.

    https://youtu.be/B9258AnO_Bk
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Thread on the grooming gangs:

    1/ Lots of people are spreading this misinformation about the role ethnicity has played in the grooming gang scandal. This is the biggest race hate scandal in 21st century Britain so we need to get it right. Thread…

    https://twitter.com/cdp1882/status/1642900173843050498

    1 in 73 Pakistani males in Rotherham was prosecuted for childhood sex abuse! Jesus Christ!
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    In honesty, I don't know which is worse for America: a second Trump victory or four more years of rampant and advancing Wokeness

    Neither is good, both are very bad, But let me play devil's advocate: if Trump wins again his narcissism will be satisfied and he will then retire (vindicated and a very old man). Then to be replaced by a more sane Republican versus a Democrat who is not 103 years old

    Putin would probably seize Ukraine, although Putin might be MORE wary of a very unstable genius like Trump so who knows. Likewise China and Xi Jinping

    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I would prefer De Santis 10000 times over, but if it came to it, I can seen arguments for Trump, I don't know if it is a winning argument. Feel free to ban me

    DeSantis is a complete sociopath who was willing to turn down free vaccines for children to help his poll chances.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,372
    Andy_JS said:

    Thread on the grooming gangs:

    1/ Lots of people are spreading this misinformation about the role ethnicity has played in the grooming gang scandal. This is the biggest race hate scandal in 21st century Britain so we need to get it right. Thread…

    https://twitter.com/cdp1882/status/1642900173843050498

    Why do some people keep asserting that "the majority of X type of offenders are white"? Of course they are, because around 85% of the population of this country is in that category. (Not referring to anyone on PB).
    It’s the modern equivalent of “In America they lynch negroes” to try and divert attention away from the actions of these gangs by pointing that white men also abuse plenty of children.

    One could imagine that the Jay and Casey reports had never been written. Neither ethnicity nor political correctness were the whole story, in these towns, but they were a big part of the story.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465
    Morning all.

    You should go out into the streets. The mood against the Tories is the most febrile and revolutionary that I've ever heard.

    A Day of Reckoning is coming.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,416

    Morning all.

    You should go out into the streets. The mood against the Tories is the most febrile and revolutionary that I've ever heard.

    A Day of Reckoning is coming.

    It’s visceral out there. I’ve never known such guttural anger and hatred for the Tories.

    A shellacking is coming and there’s nothing they can do.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,372
    Leon said:

    In honesty, I don't know which is worse for America: a second Trump victory or four more years of rampant and advancing Wokeness

    Neither is good, both are very bad, But let me play devil's advocate: if Trump wins again his narcissism will be satisfied and he will then retire (vindicated and a very old man). Then to be replaced by a more sane Republican versus a Democrat who is not 103 years old

    Putin would probably seize Ukraine, although Putin might be MORE wary of a very unstable genius like Trump so who knows. Likewise China and Xi Jinping

    On the upside the tide to Wokeness, which threatens to destroy America, the West, and the Enlightenment, stands some chance of being reversed under a confident if insane Republican like Trump,

    I would prefer De Santis 10000 times over, but if it came to it, I can seen arguments for Trump, I don't know if it is a winning argument. Feel free to ban me

    A Russian victory in Ukraine (which Trump wants) would be a geo-political disaster.

    De Santis is woke in reverse, given his love of censorship and banning books.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465
    Andy_JS said:

    Thread on the grooming gangs:

    1/ Lots of people are spreading this misinformation about the role ethnicity has played in the grooming gang scandal. This is the biggest race hate scandal in 21st century Britain so we need to get it right. Thread…

    https://twitter.com/cdp1882/status/1642900173843050498

    Why do some people keep asserting that "the majority of X type of offenders are white"? Of course they are, because around 85% of the population of this country is in that category. (Not referring to anyone on PB).
    Because the defining religion of our time is people self-obsessively signalling to each other how Not Racist they are and this is an opportunity too good to miss.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465
    Taz said:

    Morning all.

    You should go out into the streets. The mood against the Tories is the most febrile and revolutionary that I've ever heard.

    A Day of Reckoning is coming.

    It’s visceral out there. I’ve never known such guttural anger and hatred for the Tories.

    A shellacking is coming and there’s nothing they can do.
    They will be lucky to get 50 seats - tops.

    I've never seen anything like it in my life. It will be like an asteroid coming down and wiping out all life on earth.

    It is absolutely inevitable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    edited April 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    Thread on the grooming gangs:

    1/ Lots of people are spreading this misinformation about the role ethnicity has played in the grooming gang scandal. This is the biggest race hate scandal in 21st century Britain so we need to get it right. Thread…

    https://twitter.com/cdp1882/status/1642900173843050498

    Why do some people keep asserting that "the majority of X type of offenders are white"? Of course they are, because around 85% of the population of this country is in that category. (Not referring to anyone on PB).
    Because the defining religion of our time is people self-obsessively signalling to each other how Not Racist they are and this is an opportunity too good to miss.
    I hadn't realised that the guru of Braverman's cult was a sexual abuser.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sangharakshita

    Perhaps mandatory reporting as advised in 2013 by SKS could have helped prosecute him.




  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    edited April 2023

    DavidL said:

    Nigel Lawson has passed away, aged 91.

    His book, the View from Number 11, is one of the very best political books I have ever read. He didn't go by chronology but by topic and as a result gave really fascinating insights as to how policy was formed and the limitations on government. It is a good innings but that is sad news. An intellectual giant compared to almost anyone in any political party today.
    His views on climate change haven't aged well.
    Bringing the Western economies to their knees on the strength of totally unremarkable changes in climate is going to age a lot worse.
    You either don't have a clue, or you have some sort of dishonest agenda.
    I thought Lawson’s view was:

    - Climate change is happening
    - He wasn’t convinced it was entire anthropomorphic
    - Given 2 he felt mitigation was a better use of limited resources than carbon reduction

    It may be wrong but it’s not some kind of heinous position

    For a very intelligent guy, he had some terrible judgment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    edited April 2023
    Indeed, one wonders why the Conservative Home Secretaries over the last decade didn't act on this advice?

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/child-abuse-keir-starmer-prosecute-professionals?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    It might have also helped prosecute abusers like this gang.

    BBC News - Inquiry hears of abuse at Boris Johnson's school
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49882978
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigel Lawson has passed away, aged 91.

    His book, the View from Number 11, is one of the very best political books I have ever read. He didn't go by chronology but by topic and as a result gave really fascinating insights as to how policy was formed and the limitations on government. It is a good innings but that is sad news. An intellectual giant compared to almost anyone in any political party today.
    His views on climate change haven't aged well.
    Bringing the Western economies to their knees on the strength of totally unremarkable changes in climate is going to age a lot worse.
    You either don't have a clue, or you have some sort of dishonest agenda.
    I thought Lawson’s view was:

    - Climate change is happening
    - He wasn’t convinced it was entire anthropomorphic
    - Given 2 he felt mitigation was a better use of limited resources than carbon reduction

    It may be wrong but it’s not some kind of heinous position

    For a very intelligent guy, he had some terrible judgment.
    To be honest, given absolute Net Zero in carbon *emissions* is almost certainly impossible given political, social and economic constraints I suspect the way we'll actually achieve it is by decarbonising 70-80% of emissions and then littering the planet with direct air capture plants in the middle-latter half of this century to suck out the rest.

    So, we'll get to Net Zero (or maybe even slightly negative) but by a different and more practical route based on engineering.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    Foxy said:

    Indeed, one wonders why the Conservative Home Secretaries over the last decade didn't act on this advice?

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/child-abuse-keir-starmer-prosecute-professionals?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    It might have also helped prosecute abusers like this gang.

    BBC News - Inquiry hears of abuse at Boris Johnson's school
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49882978

    Or this cult like gang:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jan/18/winchester-college-christian-forum-society-report-child-abuse
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    ...

    Morning all.

    You should go out into the streets. The mood against the Tories is the most febrile and revolutionary that I've ever heard.

    A Day of Reckoning is coming.

    Have you just woken up? I guess you had just had a bad dream.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684

    ...

    Morning all.

    You should go out into the streets. The mood against the Tories is the most febrile and revolutionary that I've ever heard.

    A Day of Reckoning is coming.

    Have you just woken up? I guess you had just had a bad dream.
    No, that is a good dream...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Horse_B said:

    As a long time lurker, does anyone think Keir Starmer is out of ideas?

    He’s a poor leader and an opportunist, that’s for sure. However, he’s probably the best choice we have currently.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    Is Sunak really going for this, the “right to be offended” at work? For example, bookshop workers being allowed to sue their employer for being offended by guest speakers such as JK Rowling.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/04/virtue-signalling-has-come-to-infest-law-making/

    Where have the Conservatives gone? Talking of Conservatives, RIP Nigel Lawson, one of the best.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Indeed, one wonders why the Conservative Home Secretaries over the last decade didn't act on this advice?

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/child-abuse-keir-starmer-prosecute-professionals?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    It might have also helped prosecute abusers like this gang.

    BBC News - Inquiry hears of abuse at Boris Johnson's school
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49882978

    Or this cult like gang:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jan/18/winchester-college-christian-forum-society-report-child-abuse
    Have you opened a squirrel farm?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Andy_JS said:

    The big news isn't Trump, it's Nigel Lawson. An immense politician.

    Lawson was a crackpot - look at his views on AGW. He became a pathetic figure of ridicule.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    edited April 2023
    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
    No.

    The restriction on lengths of stays in the EU is a consequence of ending FOM. It is this that means passports now have to be stamped, while previously they just had a cursory glance.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    edited April 2023

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Indeed, one wonders why the Conservative Home Secretaries over the last decade didn't act on this advice?

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/child-abuse-keir-starmer-prosecute-professionals?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    It might have also helped prosecute abusers like this gang.

    BBC News - Inquiry hears of abuse at Boris Johnson's school
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49882978

    Or this cult like gang:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jan/18/winchester-college-christian-forum-society-report-child-abuse
    Have you opened a squirrel farm?
    No, just glad to see the government turning on these grooming gangs and prosecuting those who turn a blind eye.

    Are all at the police at the Coronation going to be there to arrest the Royal Family and Bishops? It will add a novelty to the occasion.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10081819/Archbishop-Canterbury-face-disciplinary-action-sexual-abuse-scandal-say-lawyers.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
    No.

    The restriction on lengths of stays in the EU is a consequence of ending FOM. It is this that means passport's now have to be stamped, while previously they just had a cursory glance.

    If the U.K. can manage EU passports and time limits via e-gates, one wonders why the EU can’t do the same…..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Indeed, one wonders why the Conservative Home Secretaries over the last decade didn't act on this advice?

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/child-abuse-keir-starmer-prosecute-professionals?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    It might have also helped prosecute abusers like this gang.

    BBC News - Inquiry hears of abuse at Boris Johnson's school
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49882978

    Or this cult like gang:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jan/18/winchester-college-christian-forum-society-report-child-abuse
    Have you opened a squirrel farm?
    I hope not, nasty little buggers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-65092730

    Can’t think why they’re protected. They’re an invasive species and there are far too bloody many of them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
    No.

    The restriction on lengths of stays in the EU is a consequence of ending FOM. It is this that means passport's now have to be stamped, while previously they just had a cursory glance.

    If the U.K. can manage EU passports and time limits via e-gates, one wonders why the EU can’t do the same…..
    We don't check passports on departures, do we?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigel Lawson has passed away, aged 91.

    His book, the View from Number 11, is one of the very best political books I have ever read. He didn't go by chronology but by topic and as a result gave really fascinating insights as to how policy was formed and the limitations on government. It is a good innings but that is sad news. An intellectual giant compared to almost anyone in any political party today.
    His views on climate change haven't aged well.
    Bringing the Western economies to their knees on the strength of totally unremarkable changes in climate is going to age a lot worse.
    You either don't have a clue, or you have some sort of dishonest agenda.
    I thought Lawson’s view was:

    - Climate change is happening
    - He wasn’t convinced it was entire anthropomorphic
    - Given 2 he felt mitigation was a better use of limited resources than carbon reduction

    It may be wrong but it’s not some kind of heinous position

    For a very intelligent guy, he had some terrible judgment.
    To be honest, given absolute Net Zero in carbon *emissions* is almost certainly impossible given political, social and economic constraints I suspect the way we'll actually achieve it is by decarbonising 70-80% of emissions and then littering the planet with direct air capture plants in the middle-latter half of this century to suck out the rest.

    So, we'll get to Net Zero (or maybe even slightly negative) but by a different and more practical route based on engineering.
    All three are linked but imv plastic pollution & loss of habitat are bigger dangers than AGW for nature.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited April 2023

    On Lord Lawson RIP I once travelled in SQ First with him and Lady Lawson the only other pax. Politeness personified, “please” “thank you” and “that’s so kind”. The crew clearly loved him. It was said of Mrs T she was genuinely solicitous and kind with Downing St staff even if a monster with her colleagues.

    The mark of a man, is how they treat the people paid to attend to them. Especially staff in hotels, restaurants, planes, who have no idea who their customers will be on any day.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    Andy_JS said:

    The big news isn't Trump, it's Nigel Lawson. An immense politician.

    In the sense that he was a dinosaur, which became more and more evident but sadly not early enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigel Lawson has passed away, aged 91.

    His book, the View from Number 11, is one of the very best political books I have ever read. He didn't go by chronology but by topic and as a result gave really fascinating insights as to how policy was formed and the limitations on government. It is a good innings but that is sad news. An intellectual giant compared to almost anyone in any political party today.
    His views on climate change haven't aged well.
    Bringing the Western economies to their knees on the strength of totally unremarkable changes in climate is going to age a lot worse.
    You either don't have a clue, or you have some sort of dishonest agenda.
    I thought Lawson’s view was:

    - Climate change is happening
    - He wasn’t convinced it was entire anthropomorphic
    - Given 2 he felt mitigation was a better use of limited resources than carbon reduction

    It may be wrong but it’s not some kind of heinous position

    For a very intelligent guy, he had some terrible judgment.
    To be honest, given absolute Net Zero in carbon *emissions* is almost certainly impossible given political, social and economic constraints I suspect the way we'll actually achieve it is by decarbonising 70-80% of emissions and then littering the planet with direct air capture plants in the middle-latter half of this century to suck out the rest.

    So, we'll get to Net Zero (or maybe even slightly negative) but by a different and more practical route based on engineering.
    All three are linked but imv plastic pollution & loss of habitat are bigger dangers than AGW for nature.
    Also did anyone notice ol' St Greta's recent anti windfarm demo ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Indeed, one wonders why the Conservative Home Secretaries over the last decade didn't act on this advice?

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/child-abuse-keir-starmer-prosecute-professionals?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    It might have also helped prosecute abusers like this gang.

    BBC News - Inquiry hears of abuse at Boris Johnson's school
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49882978

    Or this cult like gang:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jan/18/winchester-college-christian-forum-society-report-child-abuse
    Have you opened a squirrel farm?
    I hope not, nasty little buggers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-65092730

    Can’t think why they’re protected. They’re an invasive species and there are far too bloody many of them.
    How useless must her dogs be? My podengo would have those squirrels for breakfast.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigel Lawson has passed away, aged 91.

    His book, the View from Number 11, is one of the very best political books I have ever read. He didn't go by chronology but by topic and as a result gave really fascinating insights as to how policy was formed and the limitations on government. It is a good innings but that is sad news. An intellectual giant compared to almost anyone in any political party today.
    His views on climate change haven't aged well.
    Bringing the Western economies to their knees on the strength of totally unremarkable changes in climate is going to age a lot worse.
    You either don't have a clue, or you have some sort of dishonest agenda.
    I thought Lawson’s view was:

    - Climate change is happening
    - He wasn’t convinced it was entire anthropomorphic
    - Given 2 he felt mitigation was a better use of limited resources than carbon reduction

    It may be wrong but it’s not some kind of heinous position

    For a very intelligent guy, he had some terrible judgment.
    To be honest, given absolute Net Zero in carbon *emissions* is almost certainly impossible given political, social and economic constraints I suspect the way we'll actually achieve it is by decarbonising 70-80% of emissions and then littering the planet with direct air capture plants in the middle-latter half of this century to suck out the rest.

    So, we'll get to Net Zero (or maybe even slightly negative) but by a different and more practical route based on engineering.
    All three are linked but imv plastic pollution & loss of habitat are bigger dangers than AGW for nature.
    Also did anyone notice ol' St Greta's recent anti windfarm demo ?
    Oh, not *that* sort of Green Energy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    murali_s said:

    Horse_B said:

    As a long time lurker, does anyone think Keir Starmer is out of ideas?

    He’s a poor leader and an opportunist, that’s for sure. However, he’s probably the best choice we have currently.
    Acceptable under the circumstances, one might say?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited April 2023
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
    No.

    The restriction on lengths of stays in the EU is a consequence of ending FOM. It is this that means passports now have to be stamped, while previously they just had a cursory glance.

    So spending two seconds stamping someone’s passport, is leading to massive queues at Dover - as oppposed to the French just being French?

    Before the UK left the EU, there were huge queues at Dover at least a couple of weeks a year - Operation Stack has been around since 1988!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
    I think they're related because whether you have FoM or not affects what the passport checks need to do. If a British person wants to enter Schengen and they're part of the same FoM zone as you then you (mostly) just need to check that they have a British passport. If they're not doing FoM then you also need to manage how long they'll be allowed to stay and whether they've already stayed too long, which involves more steps.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    IanB2 said:

    murali_s said:

    Horse_B said:

    As a long time lurker, does anyone think Keir Starmer is out of ideas?

    He’s a poor leader and an opportunist, that’s for sure. However, he’s probably the best choice we have currently.
    Acceptable under the circumstances, one might say?
    What he is, what he has always been, and what he will be as your next Prime Minister, is Not Boris Johnson.

    And that is what makes Keir Starmer Acceptable, Under the Circumstances.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    edited April 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Indeed, one wonders why the Conservative Home Secretaries over the last decade didn't act on this advice?

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/child-abuse-keir-starmer-prosecute-professionals?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    It might have also helped prosecute abusers like this gang.

    BBC News - Inquiry hears of abuse at Boris Johnson's school
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49882978

    Or this cult like gang:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jan/18/winchester-college-christian-forum-society-report-child-abuse
    Have you opened a squirrel farm?
    I hope not, nasty little buggers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-65092730

    Can’t think why they’re protected. They’re an invasive species and there are far too bloody many of them.
    Go try the U.S., they have even more of them. And since dogs are rarely let off lead outside of fenced dog parks, American squirrels don’t even run away. Until the last minute, obvs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
    No.

    The restriction on lengths of stays in the EU is a consequence of ending FOM. It is this that means passports now have to be stamped, while previously they just had a cursory glance.

    So spending two seconds stamping someone’s passport, is leading to massive queues at Dover - as oppposed to the French just being French?

    Before the UK left the EU, there were huge queues at Dover at least a couple of weeks a year - Operation Stack has been around since 1988!
    Yes but having to reach the Channel Tunnel along miles of narrow country lanes, with dozens of police manning almost every junction on the back roads, because the motorway built directly to it is full of stationary lorries, is hardly a national success, is it?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    REGULAR PB POSTER ANALYSIS

    Labour Herd 15
    Intel Labour/centre-left 18
    LD 7
    Nats 6
    Neutral 19
    Tory /Tory leaning 23
    Centre-right 18

    Total: 106 posters

    Histogram analysis shows the first two categories post more than the last two in the ratio of about 60:40 or 65:35, depending (roughly) on how well/badly the Tories are doing at the time.

    Assuming this is serious, well done on attempting it. I bet we'd all love to see where we've been categorised though!
    What constitutes a regular poster, I wonder.
    Someone who's posted in the last 12 months, who I've clocked.
    I'm disappointed that you didn't scrape vanilla forums with a Python script as I had - naturally - assumed.
    I don't know how to do that.
    So go on @Casino_Royale - where do I fit in? I promise I won't take offense. I'm guessing one of the last three categories? Your analysis of course - you can categorise how you like, and your results are interesting.

    I would have categorised as follows:
    Lab
    Con
    LD
    SNP
    Alba
    PC
    Non-aligned generally left
    Non-aligned generally right (where I'd place myself)
    Neutral
    Guest posters from overseas

    I'd expect to place most in categories 7,8 and 9.

    But that's as much as I've done. I can't criticse yours until I've done at least as much work as you have. Which isn't going to happen tonight as I have the online shop to finish.
    Good proposal. You might add Green.

    Put me down in Non-aligned generally left.
    I did consider Green, but then wasn't sure we had any. Dura Ace?
    I’m a Green Party member, albeit one who probably sits in the ‘generally left’ bit (I’d argue for the two non-aligned categories to be merged into ‘centrist dad’). Though I’m maybe not a regular enough poster.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited April 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
    No.

    The restriction on lengths of stays in the EU is a consequence of ending FOM. It is this that means passports now have to be stamped, while previously they just had a cursory glance.

    So spending two seconds stamping someone’s passport, is leading to massive queues at Dover - as oppposed to the French just being French?

    Before the UK left the EU, there were huge queues at Dover at least a couple of weeks a year - Operation Stack has been around since 1988!
    No, it's not just the French. Immigration bureaucracies everywhere are much worse than they should be (since the people subject to them don't have the right to vote) but this is also true for foreigners coming into the UK. Heathrow will often have pretty horrendous queues for non-nationals, Narita has apparently had massive queues lately, it's very common. If you have the unquestioned right to stay (British person entering Britain, permanent-resident reentering Japan) it's usually very fast, both because the job is easier and because they try harder to make it quick.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    Ghedebrav said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    REGULAR PB POSTER ANALYSIS

    Labour Herd 15
    Intel Labour/centre-left 18
    LD 7
    Nats 6
    Neutral 19
    Tory /Tory leaning 23
    Centre-right 18

    Total: 106 posters

    Histogram analysis shows the first two categories post more than the last two in the ratio of about 60:40 or 65:35, depending (roughly) on how well/badly the Tories are doing at the time.

    Assuming this is serious, well done on attempting it. I bet we'd all love to see where we've been categorised though!
    What constitutes a regular poster, I wonder.
    Someone who's posted in the last 12 months, who I've clocked.
    I'm disappointed that you didn't scrape vanilla forums with a Python script as I had - naturally - assumed.
    I don't know how to do that.
    So go on @Casino_Royale - where do I fit in? I promise I won't take offense. I'm guessing one of the last three categories? Your analysis of course - you can categorise how you like, and your results are interesting.

    I would have categorised as follows:
    Lab
    Con
    LD
    SNP
    Alba
    PC
    Non-aligned generally left
    Non-aligned generally right (where I'd place myself)
    Neutral
    Guest posters from overseas

    I'd expect to place most in categories 7,8 and 9.

    But that's as much as I've done. I can't criticse yours until I've done at least as much work as you have. Which isn't going to happen tonight as I have the online shop to finish.
    Good proposal. You might add Green.

    Put me down in Non-aligned generally left.
    I did consider Green, but then wasn't sure we had any. Dura Ace?
    I’m a Green Party member, albeit one who probably sits in the ‘generally left’ bit (I’d argue for the two non-aligned categories to be merged into ‘centrist dad’). Though I’m maybe not a regular enough poster.
    We should include everyone with at least 1,000 posts?

    Based on recent voting behaviour I’d be in the Green column, not that this is really where I see myself.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I like Sunak putting Braverman in her place.

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dover-delays-officials-dismiss-suella-braverman-claim-queues-brexit-latest-l0mtqjfkw

    I must confess I find Simon Calder’s analysis on this rather more compelling than Suella Braverman. Did we really insist on every passport being checked and stamped ?

    Every passport being checked and stamped is a natural consequence of the end of FoM. "We insisted" is partisan gloss.

    Simon Calder is merely using the FBPEr's "we shot ourselves in the foot" insinuation as he always does.

    If he were more honest, he would point out that passports take longer to check now, but that busy weekends at Dover have often involved delays. For example, this from 2012:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-18307471
    FoM has nothing to do with the physical border, yet people keep trying to conflate the two. There have always been passport checks between the CTA and Shengen, and always been delays when the French decide to be French.

    Movement of goods is different now that the UK is no longer in the EU Customs Union, but tourist traffic is pretty much the same.
    I think they're related because whether you have FoM or not affects what the passport checks need to do. If a British person wants to enter Schengen and they're part of the same FoM zone as you then you (mostly) just need to check that they have a British passport. If they're not doing FoM then you also need to manage how long they'll be allowed to stay and whether they've already stayed too long, which involves more steps.
    No, FoM related to the entitlement to a National Insurance number, and the right to work. Nothing to do with border checks.

    It does appear that the French want to stamp passports to check for overstays, but that takes only a couple of seconds per passport.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    REGULAR PB POSTER ANALYSIS

    Labour Herd 15
    Intel Labour/centre-left 18
    LD 7
    Nats 6
    Neutral 19
    Tory /Tory leaning 23
    Centre-right 18

    Total: 106 posters

    Histogram analysis shows the first two categories post more than the last two in the ratio of about 60:40 or 65:35, depending (roughly) on how well/badly the Tories are doing at the time.

    Assuming this is serious, well done on attempting it. I bet we'd all love to see where we've been categorised though!
    What constitutes a regular poster, I wonder.
    Someone who's posted in the last 12 months, who I've clocked.
    I'm disappointed that you didn't scrape vanilla forums with a Python script as I had - naturally - assumed.
    I don't know how to do that.
    So go on @Casino_Royale - where do I fit in? I promise I won't take offense. I'm guessing one of the last three categories? Your analysis of course - you can categorise how you like, and your results are interesting.

    I would have categorised as follows:
    Lab
    Con
    LD
    SNP
    Alba
    PC
    Non-aligned generally left
    Non-aligned generally right (where I'd place myself)
    Neutral
    Guest posters from overseas

    I'd expect to place most in categories 7,8 and 9.

    But that's as much as I've done. I can't criticse yours until I've done at least as much work as you have. Which isn't going to happen tonight as I have the online shop to finish.
    Good proposal. You might add Green.

    Put me down in Non-aligned generally left.
    I did consider Green, but then wasn't sure we had any. Dura Ace?
    I’m a Green Party member, albeit one who probably sits in the ‘generally left’ bit (I’d argue for the two non-aligned categories to be merged into ‘centrist dad’). Though I’m maybe not a regular enough poster.
    We should include everyone with at least 1,000 posts?

    Based on recent voting behaviour I’d be in the Green column, not that this is really where I see myself.
    It depends what mood I am in. LD, Green or Anarcho-Syndicalist.
This discussion has been closed.