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Punters give Johnson a 7% chance of being CON general election leader – politicalbetting.com

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  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    What a finish!
    Do feel for Italy, but only up to a point. Or 7.

    some good defensive work from Scotland on their try line, but always good to see a try from 90 yards out
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Reed said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Teenagers go in big numbers for something that is only slightly illegal, doesn't land you in prison, highly addictive, oils the wheels of social interaction, is disapproved of the the Guardian and parents, somewhat cool, and is designed to be the alternative to the one that kills you.

    What a shock

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/18/uk-health-expert-raises-alarm-at-epidemic-of-vaping-among-teenagers

    Can you talk me through how vaping is somewhat cool?
    Step 1. Teenagers think a lot of stupid things are cool
    Step 2. See above

    People thought even smoking was cool for crying out loud, well beyond teenage years.
    I was more interested in why Algakirk thought it was cool, since I sense like myself he is at some distance from teenagedom.
    I somewhat atavistically still think smoking is cool, love old photos of people dexterously juggling the slim white cylinders of death. Otoh a gaggle of folk outside pubs or workplaces in a cloud of confectionary scented steam doesn’t do it for me, I find those metal steampunk vaping devices particularly dorky (I’ve used up my annual use of the word dork quota in one hour).
    Yes. It brings particular memories. I gave up smoking at age 21. But the 60s and 70s have special smoking memories, and under age drinking. Remember how in cinemas you could see the light from the projector all the way through the air because it was full of smoke.

    Tube trains full of smoke. Coffee bars, cafes, on top in buses.

    Your clothes always smelling of smoke after you had been to the pub.
    I've never smoked but both my parents did in the house. It was only after I left home that I realised my clothes at school must have reeked every day. Never noticed at the time of course.
    My father smoked a pipe, to within days of his death, and I had to take his car round various dealers to sell it. I didn’t smoke by then …. hadn’t for 20 years…and the vehicle smelled disgusting.
    It was also difficult to sell because the reg. no was 666.
    My late father’s car smells like a tobacconist after a fire.

    It’s one reason why I kept it and sold mine.
    The smoking ban is why you don't see so many dry cleaners nowadays.
    No longer having to get rid of the tell-tale smoke after a sneaky night out with the floozy/fellah?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Could we see net Tory gains in Scotland at the next general election 👀?

    Major made net gains in 1992 in Scotland after Thatcher went, even if losing seats in England and Wales.

    Sunak equally is more popular in Scotland than Boris was
    ...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    Could we see net Tory gains in Scotland at the next general election 👀?

    The SNP will have no realistic prospect of delivering independence for several governments, probably for several decades. All they can really fall back on "Is let us negotiate the very best devo maximus - and let us continue to govern Scotland whilst we do."

    Indy was their offer; meanwhile, they have been exposed to be shite - possibly worse - when it comes to actually governing Scotland. You can imagine the Scots saying an emphatic "no...." to that SNP offer. We have already seen SNP membership drop by 30%. It could realistically be down 50% by the next election. If that drop in members is reflected in voters, they are going to lose in a tsunami of seats.
    Would not take much to send it soaring again. Someone actually for independence and you would see a huge surge.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @paulhutcheon: The Lib Dems have reacted to Peter Murrell’s resignation https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1637095626503598082/photo/1
  • Nigelb said:

    Speaking of which.

    Boris Johnson’s supporters plotting ‘Spartacus-style’ show of solidarity by voting against any privileges committee sanctions in the Commons

    Vote will also act as a ‘show of force’ to Rishi Sunak of support for Johnson

    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1637003761913659392

    I’ve been talking about this for months.

    This could be huge.
  • WOS on Twitter has a leak from the emergency NEC meeting - possible reballot in the SNP leadership election.

    Would be explosive if true, but all options lead to a flaming binfire, so might be the least bad option.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    South Africa is legally obliged to execute an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin during his planned visit to the country for a summit in August, British TV channel Sky News reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1637053735506698241
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Strangely, I never minded fag smoke in pubs. Or people doing it in my garden /patio at house parties.

    Bothered me virtually everywhere, particularly in restaurants where some people couldn't read the room (or didn't give a crap) and were doing it right up until it was banned in 2007.

    I didn't like that my clothes stank when I got home afterwards, but I didn't mind it in pubs at the time. I just accepted that it was normal.

    It was smoking carriages on trains that really annoyed me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265
    Nigelb said:

    South Africa is legally obliged to execute an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin during his planned visit to the country for a summit in August, British TV channel Sky News reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1637053735506698241

    Why would the South African government be interested in the law?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    malcolmg said:

    dr_spyn said:

    More that just a cock up over membership numbers?

    https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1637078435381010433

    the tip of the iceberg has surfaced
    Does the tip of the iceberg ever not surface? Isn’t that what makes it the “tip”?
    No reason why the arse end or any other part could not surface
    But if the arse surfaced then it would become the tip, surely?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fuck me if Starmer isn’t a lucky son of a bitch

    I reckon Starmer must have offered the souls of his children to the devil to be this lucky.
    Looks like we could see 2015 in reverse in Scotland at next GE! SNP near wipeout possible!!
    I would not bet on it
    Nor would I. The fundamentals haven't changed: the unionist vote is split and the anti-unionist vote isn't. The SNP core vote have nowhere else to go.
    Only if you think independence supporters will not for vote for a unionist party.
    But that doesn't appear to be true. The current opinion polls suggest that Labour has picked up yes voters from the SNP, and even before then a chunk of the Labour vote supported indy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    WOS on Twitter has a leak from the emergency NEC meeting - possible reballot in the SNP leadership election.

    Would be explosive if true, but all options lead to a flaming binfire, so might be the least bad option.

    Indeed. Less argument about the result this time, though issues remain (a) validity of membership list data (which should be sorted out against financial records) and (b) whether to havwe the same candidates or start again.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    latest

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    WOS on Twitter has a leak from the emergency NEC meeting - possible reballot in the SNP leadership election.

    Would be explosive if true, but all options lead to a flaming binfire, so might be the least bad option.

    Very likely outcome
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Speaking of which.

    Boris Johnson’s supporters plotting ‘Spartacus-style’ show of solidarity by voting against any privileges committee sanctions in the Commons

    Vote will also act as a ‘show of force’ to Rishi Sunak of support for Johnson

    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1637003761913659392

    I’ve been talking about this for months.

    This could be huge.
    Or a complete Dudders.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fuck me if Starmer isn’t a lucky son of a bitch

    I reckon Starmer must have offered the souls of his children to the devil to be this lucky.
    Looks like we could see 2015 in reverse in Scotland at next GE! SNP near wipeout possible!!
    I would not bet on it
    Nor would I. The fundamentals haven't changed: the unionist vote is split and the anti-unionist vote isn't. The SNP core vote have nowhere else to go.
    Only if you think independence supporters will not for vote for a unionist party.
    But that doesn't appear to be true. The current opinion polls suggest that Labour has picked up yes voters from the SNP, and even before then a chunk of the Labour vote supported indy.
    Those are just the troughers who left labour when their gravy train hit the buffers. Anyone interested in independence will not be going to London unionist parties.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Nigelb said:

    Speaking of which.

    Boris Johnson’s supporters plotting ‘Spartacus-style’ show of solidarity by voting against any privileges committee sanctions in the Commons

    Vote will also act as a ‘show of force’ to Rishi Sunak of support for Johnson

    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1637003761913659392

    I’ve been talking about this for months.

    This could be huge.
    Why would they want to split the party over this bloke?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    DougSeal said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    malcolmg said:

    dr_spyn said:

    More that just a cock up over membership numbers?

    https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1637078435381010433

    the tip of the iceberg has surfaced
    Does the tip of the iceberg ever not surface? Isn’t that what makes it the “tip”?
    No reason why the arse end or any other part could not surface
    But if the arse surfaced then it would become the tip, surely?
    Surely it would be the arse tip and not the tip
  • malcolmg said:

    WOS on Twitter has a leak from the emergency NEC meeting - possible reballot in the SNP leadership election.

    Would be explosive if true, but all options lead to a flaming binfire, so might be the least bad option.

    Very likely outcome
    Only option that doesn't lead to an immediate legal challenge.

    Whether Humza has the brass neck to stay in the race...who am I kidding, of course he does.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    eek said:

    So story on Twitter saying Donald Trump will be indicted on Tuesday - to which the response is

    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    If this happens, Trump will be re-elected in a landslide victory

    As I said at the time, the only way for the GOP to escape Trump was to bring him down in 2021/2.

    Trump may be hard to stop becoming the GOP nominee, but the 2020 election suggests the Democrats have a big advantage in getting out the vote. Even if Trump can get 74m votes again, he won't win unless he can persuade a lot of people who voted for Biden to stay at home.
    Law enforcement arrives at Al Capone’s South Florida mansion, 1938:
    https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/1637090124797190148

    In "Sunset Boulevard" (1950), law enforcement descends on Norma Desmond's tropical mansion:
    https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/1637095148508119042
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fuck me if Starmer isn’t a lucky son of a bitch

    I reckon Starmer must have offered the souls of his children to the devil to be this lucky.
    Looks like we could see 2015 in reverse in Scotland at next GE! SNP near wipeout possible!!
    I would not bet on it
    Nor would I. The fundamentals haven't changed: the unionist vote is split and the anti-unionist vote isn't. The SNP core vote have nowhere else to go.
    Only if you think independence supporters will not for vote for a unionist party.
    But that doesn't appear to be true. The current opinion polls suggest that Labour has picked up yes voters from the SNP, and even before then a chunk of the Labour vote supported indy.
    And only yesterday:

    Last night's Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) council by-election result, first preferences:

    CON: 41.0% (+10.9)
    SNP: 26.9% (+1.1)
    LAB: 13.4% (+1.6)
    LDEM: 8.9% (-0.4)
    GRN: 8.7% (-7.3)

    Votes cast: 4,472

    Seat change: Conservative GAIN from SNP.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Strangely, I never minded fag smoke in pubs. Or people doing it in my garden /patio at house parties.

    Bothered me virtually everywhere, particularly in restaurants where some people couldn't read the room (or didn't give a crap) and were doing it right up until it was banned in 2007.

    I didn't like that my clothes stank when I got home afterwards, but I didn't mind it in pubs at the time. I just accepted that it was normal.

    It was smoking carriages on trains that really annoyed me.
    Working split shifts in a pub with smoking meant two sets of clothes. I hated it, and still hate smoking and smokers. It’s terrible for your health, just give it up.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    malcolmg said:

    dr_spyn said:

    More that just a cock up over membership numbers?

    https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1637078435381010433

    the tip of the iceberg has surfaced
    Does the tip of the iceberg ever not surface? Isn’t that what makes it the “tip”?
    No reason why the arse end or any other part could not surface
    But if the arse surfaced then it would become the tip, surely?
    Surely it would be the arse tip and not the tip
    Maybe. Any oceanographers care to comment?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    felix said:

    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fuck me if Starmer isn’t a lucky son of a bitch

    I reckon Starmer must have offered the souls of his children to the devil to be this lucky.
    Looks like we could see 2015 in reverse in Scotland at next GE! SNP near wipeout possible!!
    I would not bet on it
    Nor would I. The fundamentals haven't changed: the unionist vote is split and the anti-unionist vote isn't. The SNP core vote have nowhere else to go.
    Only if you think independence supporters will not for vote for a unionist party.
    But that doesn't appear to be true. The current opinion polls suggest that Labour has picked up yes voters from the SNP, and even before then a chunk of the Labour vote supported indy.
    And only yesterday:

    Last night's Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) council by-election result, first preferences:

    CON: 41.0% (+10.9)
    SNP: 26.9% (+1.1)
    LAB: 13.4% (+1.6)
    LDEM: 8.9% (-0.4)
    GRN: 8.7% (-7.3)

    Votes cast: 4,472

    Seat change: Conservative GAIN from SNP.
    That's got to be churn, surely? SNP voters moving to CON and Greens moving to SNP to compensate.

    Green to Con strikes me as - improbable.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    malcolmg said:

    WOS on Twitter has a leak from the emergency NEC meeting - possible reballot in the SNP leadership election.

    Would be explosive if true, but all options lead to a flaming binfire, so might be the least bad option.

    Very likely outcome
    Only option that doesn't lead to an immediate legal challenge.

    Whether Humza has the brass neck to stay in the race...who am I kidding, of course he does.
    Surely he will know the game is up and go now rather than have to rerun and be humiliated even further.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fuck me if Starmer isn’t a lucky son of a bitch

    I reckon Starmer must have offered the souls of his children to the devil to be this lucky.
    Looks like we could see 2015 in reverse in Scotland at next GE! SNP near wipeout possible!!
    I would not bet on it
    Nor would I. The fundamentals haven't changed: the unionist vote is split and the anti-unionist vote isn't. The SNP core vote have nowhere else to go.
    Only if you think independence supporters will not for vote for a unionist party.
    But that doesn't appear to be true. The current opinion polls suggest that Labour has picked up yes voters from the SNP, and even before then a chunk of the Labour vote supported indy.
    And only yesterday:

    Last night's Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) council by-election result, first preferences:

    CON: 41.0% (+10.9)
    SNP: 26.9% (+1.1)
    LAB: 13.4% (+1.6)
    LDEM: 8.9% (-0.4)
    GRN: 8.7% (-7.3)

    Votes cast: 4,472

    Seat change: Conservative GAIN from SNP.
    That's got to be churn, surely? SNP voters moving to CON and Greens moving to SNP to compensate.

    Green to Con strikes me as - improbable.
    SNP to CON seems incredibly unlikely to me. Only a unionist could dream that one.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited March 2023
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    WOS on Twitter has a leak from the emergency NEC meeting - possible reballot in the SNP leadership election.

    Would be explosive if true, but all options lead to a flaming binfire, so might be the least bad option.

    Very likely outcome
    Only option that doesn't lead to an immediate legal challenge.

    Whether Humza has the brass neck to stay in the race...who am I kidding, of course he does.
    Surely he will know the game is up and go now rather than have to rerun and be humiliated even further.
    He'll be reluctant to stand aside, and the Sturgeon gang would have to find another candidate to go up against Kate and Ash. Angus Robertson seems somewhat reluctant to wade in.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    felix said:

    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fuck me if Starmer isn’t a lucky son of a bitch

    I reckon Starmer must have offered the souls of his children to the devil to be this lucky.
    Looks like we could see 2015 in reverse in Scotland at next GE! SNP near wipeout possible!!
    I would not bet on it
    Nor would I. The fundamentals haven't changed: the unionist vote is split and the anti-unionist vote isn't. The SNP core vote have nowhere else to go.
    Only if you think independence supporters will not for vote for a unionist party.
    But that doesn't appear to be true. The current opinion polls suggest that Labour has picked up yes voters from the SNP, and even before then a chunk of the Labour vote supported indy.
    And only yesterday:

    Last night's Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) council by-election result, first preferences:

    CON: 41.0% (+10.9)
    SNP: 26.9% (+1.1)
    LAB: 13.4% (+1.6)
    LDEM: 8.9% (-0.4)
    GRN: 8.7% (-7.3)

    Votes cast: 4,472

    Seat change: Conservative GAIN from SNP.
    Standard mistake when looking at Scottish local elections is to compare a 2nd won seat in an election with the first and only in a by election. Torries won first seats on both occasions. Plus different and lower turnout favouring postal voting.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Good morning/afternoon from Long Island.

    So what happens now?
    Re-ballot, narrow Forbes win?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883
    malcolmg said:

    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fuck me if Starmer isn’t a lucky son of a bitch

    I reckon Starmer must have offered the souls of his children to the devil to be this lucky.
    Looks like we could see 2015 in reverse in Scotland at next GE! SNP near wipeout possible!!
    I would not bet on it
    Nor would I. The fundamentals haven't changed: the unionist vote is split and the anti-unionist vote isn't. The SNP core vote have nowhere else to go.
    Only if you think independence supporters will not for vote for a unionist party.
    But that doesn't appear to be true. The current opinion polls suggest that Labour has picked up yes voters from the SNP, and even before then a chunk of the Labour vote supported indy.
    Those are just the troughers who left labour when their gravy train hit the buffers. Anyone interested in independence will not be going to London unionist parties.
    Plenty of Unionists voted for the SNP. Might be Nationalists are less transfer friendly, but if there is anything that would persuade soft-nats to vote for a Unionist party surely it would be this shit show?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    WOS on Twitter has a leak from the emergency NEC meeting - possible reballot in the SNP leadership election.

    Would be explosive if true, but all options lead to a flaming binfire, so might be the least bad option.

    Very likely outcome
    Only option that doesn't lead to an immediate legal challenge.

    Whether Humza has the brass neck to stay in the race...who am I kidding, of course he does.
    Surely he will know the game is up and go now rather than have to rerun and be humiliated even further.
    He'll be reluctant to stand aside, and the Sturgeon gang would have to find another candidate to go up against Kate and Ash. Angus Robertson seems somewhat reluctant to wade in.
    Yes Macbeth is keeping the head down, he will just be hoping to survive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    Carnyx said:

    felix said:

    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fuck me if Starmer isn’t a lucky son of a bitch

    I reckon Starmer must have offered the souls of his children to the devil to be this lucky.
    Looks like we could see 2015 in reverse in Scotland at next GE! SNP near wipeout possible!!
    I would not bet on it
    Nor would I. The fundamentals haven't changed: the unionist vote is split and the anti-unionist vote isn't. The SNP core vote have nowhere else to go.
    Only if you think independence supporters will not for vote for a unionist party.
    But that doesn't appear to be true. The current opinion polls suggest that Labour has picked up yes voters from the SNP, and even before then a chunk of the Labour vote supported indy.
    And only yesterday:

    Last night's Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) council by-election result, first preferences:

    CON: 41.0% (+10.9)
    SNP: 26.9% (+1.1)
    LAB: 13.4% (+1.6)
    LDEM: 8.9% (-0.4)
    GRN: 8.7% (-7.3)

    Votes cast: 4,472

    Seat change: Conservative GAIN from SNP.
    Standard mistake when looking at Scottish local elections is to compare a 2nd won seat in an election with the first and only in a by election. Torries won first seats on both occasions. Plus different and lower turnout favouring postal voting.
    Yes, the local proportional representation system in Scottish local government doesn't really work very well with bye elections. I think it probably needs looked at.
This discussion has been closed.