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SNP leadership – latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    nico679 said:

    .

    So Raab is safe as his mate, rule breaking Rishi will save him, it is the Priti Patel bullying stuff all over again.

    Rishi Sunak will determine whether Dominic Raab bullied officials because the formal investigation into his conduct will not express an opinion about his behaviour, The Times has been told.

    Adam Tolley KC was appointed by the prime minister in November to investigate formal complaints made by civil servants about the justice secretary’s behaviour.

    Alleged victims of Raab, the deputy prime minister, have been told that Tolley will only seek to establish the facts surrounding allegations of bullying in three government departments. He will not give a “subjective” opinion on whether the events that he outlines in his report, which is expected to be published later this month, amount to bullying.

    A Whitehall source said that Sunak would be the “arbiter” of whether the actions of Raab, one of his closest allies, constitute bullying.

    Raab is said to be facing at least 24 complaints from civil servants who have worked with him across three government departments.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dominic-raab-bullying-inquiry-will-defer-to-rishi-sunak-for-final-verdict-6gttpp78l

    Utterly ludicrous . Wtf was the point of the enquiry when it’s left to Sunak to decide the outcome.
    So he can stand up and say he's had an enquiry and no evidence has been found of wrongdoing sufficient to warrant Raab's dismissal.

    As Sir Humphrey said, the point of an enquiry is to unearth a vast mass of no evidence.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    I believe the obsession is American in origin. Hence the initiating comment from @williamglenn

    Americans have turned a known class issue - poor people living in the more polluted areas of cities (usually in the east in the northern hemisphere) into an issue of race. Yet again

    The phenomenon of poorer eastern neighbourhoods goes back centuries and is ubiquitous


    There's a couple of points here. One is the Quite Interesting kind of fact, if true, that the eastern bits of Northern cities tend to be the poorer and more polluted areas.

    The other is whether it is obsessive to make that an issue of race as well as class in Los Angeles. Maybe it's unhelpful/irrelevant, or maybe it would be bizarre to ignore it - perhaps someone who knows LA could tell us what they think. Or read the actual article:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    'The core finding is that for every 1% increase in miles driven to and from work by people who live in a particular part of L.A. County, there’s an estimated 0.62% decrease in the lung-damaging “fine particulate matter” to which those Angelenos are exposed.

    How is that possible? I asked the study’s lead author, Geoff Boeing, a professor at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy.

    He told me it largely comes down to the shameful history of Los Angeles County’s low-income communities of color being torn apart to make way for freeways — a history that has been extensively documented by The Times. Today, many residents of the county’s whiter, more affluent neighborhoods — who were often able to keep highways out of their own backyards — commute to work through lower-income Black and Latino neighborhoods bisected by the 10, 110 and 105 freeways and more.'

    And it gives an example of what it calls the

    'long history of racist housing policies and freeway construction'

    'Residents of the relatively affluent, predominantly white city [South Pasadena] were able to block construction of the 710 Freeway through their neighborhoods. As a result, he told me, truck traffic from the ports of L.A. and Long Beach ends up routing through lower-income neighborhoods in Alhambra, a city whose population is overwhelmingly Asian and Latino.'


    Clearly London doesn't have exactly the same history so not a very good counter-example.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,957
    Stocky said:

    The link below in the cyclist tragedy is interesting - scroll down to the comments section. Looks like there is an aspect of the council covering its arse in this and maybe misleading the judge.

    https://road.cc/content/news/auriol-grey-seeks-leave-appeal-vs-manslaughter-sentence-299825

    But what's weird is that despite lots of speculation on here and elsewhere, her lawyers are not appealing the verdict. Surely we should defer to the judge's opinion and what we can infer from what her lawyers are (not) doing.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    I believe the obsession is American in origin. Hence the initiating comment from @williamglenn

    Americans have turned a known class issue - poor people living in the more polluted areas of cities (usually in the east in the northern hemisphere) into an issue of race. Yet again

    The phenomenon of poorer eastern neighbourhoods goes back centuries and is ubiquitous


    This thing about poorer areas being downwind has been a 'prevailing' idea in historical and archaeological circles for decades. But to be honest I always considered it something of a myth. Interesting to see a serious study on it.

    One thing you do note on Romano-British sites is that the earliest occupation often tends to be downstream and then moves upstream with time. So the 1st century stuff will be downstream, then as they pollute their water sources the settlement migrates upstream. Again it is by no means a hard and fast rule but it is common enough that you can get a good feel for how pottery and other finds will change on a site and where you are likely to get latest occupation.
    That article is interesting and points out that as pollution fades away so does the poverty gradient

    We can see this in london where some of the eastern districts - Spitalfields, Wapping, Shoreditch, clerkenwell, bits of Hackney - are now some of the most desirable in the capital. Certainly more coveted than Hounslow or Acton
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,313
    Good (and short) article.

    What is the British Army for?
    https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/what-is-the-british-army-for/
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Off to Bala later today, where it’s supposedly going to drop as low as -8°, though I’m not sure I believe it - meteorologists share the same fetish for pronouncing grim outlooks that some medical professionals do.

    It’s a poker weekend (wish me luck, I’ll need it) supposedly interspersed with hiking, but I’ve about as much interest in scaling Cader Idris in this weather as Boris has in constituency casework. Beer, book and log fire seems more appealing.

    Bala must be quite spectacular in this weather. The lake and the hills should be stunning.

    But I wouldn't advise Cadair, particularly not the steep trails up from Llyn Cae.
    I want to walk round the lake, at least. One of my favourite novels, Austerlitz, is set in part around Bala.
    I cycled round it three years ago, while everywhere was fairly quiet due to semi-lockdown. Wouldn't care to do it under normal conditions because there's one stretch you have to use the main road and it's narrow, twisty and traffic still goes quite fast. But it was quite an experience.

    If they only built a three mile off road track east from Llanuwchllyn to connect up with the existing cycle lane that would be one of the great rides of Wales, fit to compare with the Mawddach trail, the Porthmadog to Harlech trail and the Lon Las Eifion.

    It's still decent as it is, you just can't quite do a circuit which is slightly annoying.
    My original plan was to get the train to Shrewsbury and cycle from there, but no chance in these conditions. I’ve ridden around that part of the world before; racing the train across the bridge at Barmouth and the lovely Mawddach trail up to Dolgellau.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Mr. Jessop, if this melted rapidly, there would be a ton of flooding.

    Remember the 10:1 ratio between snow and water. It will not produce nearly as much water as you think.
    But does tend to all melt in one big go. Thaw in the Cairngorms etc
    One of the many miracles of water is a very high latent heat which means a melt is unlikely to be sudden unless the weather conditions are really exceptional. This is what keeps mountain streams running most of the year.

    I am now in south Fife. There is less snow here today than there was when I came through it yesterday morning.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,942
    .
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    I believe the obsession is American in origin. Hence the initiating comment from @williamglenn

    Americans have turned a known class issue - poor people living in the more polluted areas of cities (usually in the east in the northern hemisphere) into an issue of race. Yet again

    The phenomenon of poorer eastern neighbourhoods goes back centuries and is ubiquitous


    This thing about poorer areas being downwind has been a 'prevailing' idea in historical and archaeological circles for decades. But to be honest I always considered it something of a myth. Interesting to see a serious study on it.

    One thing you do note on Romano-British sites is that the earliest occupation often tends to be downstream and then moves upstream with time. So the 1st century stuff will be downstream, then as they pollute their water sources the settlement migrates upstream. Again it is by no means a hard and fast rule but it is common enough that you can get a good feel for how pottery and other finds will change on a site and where you are likely to get latest occupation.
    That article is interesting and points out that as pollution fades away so does the poverty gradient

    We can see this in london where some of the eastern districts - Spitalfields, Wapping, Shoreditch, clerkenwell, bits of Hackney - are now some of the most desirable in the capital. Certainly more coveted than Hounslow or Acton
    Source of the (noise) pollution is different. Hounslow is blighted by being on the Heathrow flight path.

    It would be interesting if someone did a study of house prices in the vicinity of wind turbines. We'd then have some evidence of the extent to which they have a negative effects on a location.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    Interestingly the (north-)east end of Newcastle is wealthier than the west end. At least these days.

    The traditiin mostly dates from when factories were steam powered - the prevailing UK westerlies blew pollutants towards the east so the posher and pricier homes and suburbs tended to be on the western side of most such factories.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem


  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,126
    I note the crushing Lib Dem win in Costorphine Murrayfield, 56% and won on first preferences, making West Edinburgh a real fortress for Alex Cole-Hamilton. Further weakness in the SNP and Green vote. Suggests that the East coast is increasingly looking at the Nats with a more sceptical eye.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048
    edited March 2023
    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Overall voters narrowly back increasing taxes but oppose increasing borrowing to fund public sector payrises
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Tory voters still believing in fairytales then.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem


    I am shocked, absolutely shocked. Who could have foreseen such a thing?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    Cicero said:

    I note the crushing Lib Dem win in Costorphine Murrayfield, 56% and won on first preferences, making West Edinburgh a real fortress for Alex Cole-Hamilton. Further weakness in the SNP and Green vote. Suggests that the East coast is increasingly looking at the Nats with a more sceptical eye.

    The problem which remains though is that in many parts of this area there are 3 parties all fighting each other as well as the SNP who could even end up gaining the odd seat as a result in Holyrood or UK elections.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem


    I am shocked, absolutely shocked. Who could have foreseen such a thing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048

    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Tory voters still believing in fairytales then.
    No, they just oppose big public sector payrises
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Tory voters still believing in fairytales then.
    No, they just oppose big public sector payrises
    Exactly. They want a world class health service, while not paying the market rate for staff. That only ends one way. Fairytales.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    Cicero said:

    I note the crushing Lib Dem win in Costorphine Murrayfield, 56% and won on first preferences, making West Edinburgh a real fortress for Alex Cole-Hamilton. Further weakness in the SNP and Green vote. Suggests that the East coast is increasingly looking at the Nats with a more sceptical eye.

    A phrase about swallows and summers. Let's see what happens when Yousaf or Forbes is in charge.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Tory voters still believing in fairytales then.
    No, they just oppose big public sector payrises
    Exactly. They want a world class health service, while not paying the market rate for staff. That only ends one way. Fairytales.
    No, they just don't see why public sector workers should get more than the 6% average UK payrise most of them are getting paid for from higher taxes on them or increased borrowing
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    In the years before the GFC the UK was growing a bit faster than most because its larger exposure to financial services and banking gave it a disproportionate boost in those fast growing areas. Since the GFC we have suffered disproportionately adversely for the same reasons. Only our long term weakness in respect of our balance of payments has had a bigger impact on our performance. Almost everything else has been trivial.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    IMF will be in tears this morning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,313
    Another good thread on intelligence estimates. The distinction between probability estimates, and confidence assessments is often ignored.

    There has been a lot of intelligence in the news recently: covid-19 origins, Havana syndrome & Nord Stream explosions. Intelligence-based claims are often eye-catching & appealing. My piece on why it's important to look closely at the confidence level.
    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1633919713087561735
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,204
    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Since the media don't seem to be reporting it much, here's a report about the Post Office Horizon scandal.

    "IT worker evidence reveals a toxic Post Office IT helpdesk that discriminated against subpostmasters
    IT worker tells public inquiry that the Post Office Horizon helpdesk was toxic, rudderless and racist"

    https://www.computerweekly.com/news/365532063/IT-worker-evidence-reveals-a-toxic-Post-Office-IT-helpdesk-that-discriminated-against-subpostmasters

    YouTube channel featuring videos of each day's hearings.

    https://www.youtube.com/@postofficehorizonitinquiry947/videos

    In the end, this Post office issue is why it is good to live in this country, problems like this get unearthed and eventually resolved.



    Judging by the interviews with various postmasters, the Post Office seemed quite capable of ruining the lives of WWC subpostmasters.

    Seriously - I have little doubt that such a stupidly, malevolent policy was carried out with racism, sexism, homophobia and about every prejudice they could find. Scum are like that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,743
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Tory voters still believing in fairytales then.
    No, they just oppose big public sector payrises
    Exactly. They want a world class health service, while not paying the market rate for staff. That only ends one way. Fairytales.
    No, they just don't see why public sector workers should get more than the 6% average UK payrise most of them are getting paid for from higher taxes on them or increased borrowing
    Not even when the base is already lower.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    Sure maybe Leon was swearing at the LA Times article, rather than Nigelb, who didn't mention race. In which case he could have clarified that rather than doubling down.

    I would encourage anyone interested to read the actual article though:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    If it's true, as claimed, that LA has a shameful history of racist housing and freeway construction policies (which sounds at least plausible to me though maybe that's just my own prejudice I don't know anything about LA), then surely the racial aspect of air pollution in predominantly non-white neighborhoods in LA IS relevant and not 'madness' as Leon put it. The history of air pollution in London isn't very relevant here.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,977
    Power finally back... we'll see if it stays.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,313

    Power finally back... we'll see if it stays.

    How about your heating ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822

    Power finally back... we'll see if it stays.

    Is your boiler back on? Not a day to be without it...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,204
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    The freeways in Los Angeles were often built by going - “which neighbourhood matters the least, and we can put a great big motorway through?”

    Black and Latino neighbourhoods figures largely in this. Think 1950s America.

    So pollution is a racial issue in Los Angeles.

    The stupid bit is the issue of who drives on the freeways - that’s pretty mixed. Since all but the very very poorest drive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Tory voters still believing in fairytales then.
    No, they just oppose big public sector payrises
    Exactly. They want a world class health service, while not paying the market rate for staff. That only ends one way. Fairytales.
    No, they just don't see why public sector workers should get more than the 6% average UK payrise most of them are getting paid for from higher taxes on them or increased borrowing
    That's not how capitalism works.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,523
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Alba getting more unpopular?

    Favourability of Political Parties in Scotland:

    LAB: +10% (+3)
    SNP: -1% (-13)
    LDM: -13% (-1)
    GRN: -17% (-6)
    CON: -34% (+4)
    REF: -34% (=)
    ALBA: -47% (-8)

    Via @RedfieldWilton
    , On 2-5 March,
    Changes w/ 26-27 November 2022.


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1633532296920719361

    But, but, but….

    @Mexicanpete said:
    ...
    At the next GE the SNP are going to smash Starmer Labour out of the park.
    Well they'll probably still have loads more seats than Labour in Scotland. But it pretty encouraging.
    labour in Scotland are like a turd, they cannot be polished and no matter how much glitter you sprinkle on them they will still be a turd.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,441
    edited March 2023
    Cicero said:

    I note the crushing Lib Dem win in Costorphine Murrayfield, 56% and won on first preferences, making West Edinburgh a real fortress for Alex Cole-Hamilton. Further weakness in the SNP and Green vote. Suggests that the East coast is increasingly looking at the Nats with a more sceptical eye.


    That's a Scttish local election where the vacancy is in a seat which was won by the SNP third in the row last time. Comparing apples and oranges. In fact no great change from last time where the LDs got the first and second seats on the slate. Much smaller turnout, which would favour the oldies with postal votes.


    https://ballotbox.scot/preview-corstorphine
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,313
    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    Sure maybe Leon was swearing at the LA Times article, rather than Nigelb, who didn't mention race. In which case he could have clarified that rather than doubling down.

    I would encourage anyone interested to read the actual article though:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    If it's true, as claimed, that LA has a shameful history of racist housing and freeway construction policies (which sounds at least plausible to me though maybe that's just my own prejudice I don't know anything about LA), then surely the racial aspect of air pollution in predominantly non-white neighborhoods in LA IS relevant and not 'madness' as Leon put it. The history of air pollution in London isn't very relevant here.
    I think there’s a more general point.
    What’s depicted as a passive process - the poor tend to live in more polluted areas - really isn’t anymore, as we’re far more aware than in the past of the consequences of development without adequate environmental controls.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Alba getting more unpopular?

    Favourability of Political Parties in Scotland:

    LAB: +10% (+3)
    SNP: -1% (-13)
    LDM: -13% (-1)
    GRN: -17% (-6)
    CON: -34% (+4)
    REF: -34% (=)
    ALBA: -47% (-8)

    Via @RedfieldWilton
    , On 2-5 March,
    Changes w/ 26-27 November 2022.


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1633532296920719361

    But, but, but….

    @Mexicanpete said:
    ...
    At the next GE the SNP are going to smash Starmer Labour out of the park.
    Well they'll probably still have loads more seats than Labour in Scotland. But it pretty encouraging.
    labour in Scotland are like a turd, they cannot be polished and no matter how much glitter you sprinkle on them they will still be a turd.
    Nevertheless, they will be a much larger turd going forward.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,204
    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    Sure maybe Leon was swearing at the LA Times article, rather than Nigelb, who didn't mention race. In which case he could have clarified that rather than doubling down.

    I would encourage anyone interested to read the actual article though:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    If it's true, as claimed, that LA has a shameful history of racist housing and freeway construction policies (which sounds at least plausible to me though maybe that's just my own prejudice I don't know anything about LA), then surely the racial aspect of air pollution in predominantly non-white neighborhoods in LA IS relevant and not 'madness' as Leon put it. The history of air pollution in London isn't very relevant here.
    The history of the black and latino neighbourhoods in LA is clear. They got the shitty end of the stick on many things.

    Including outright theft of land https://abcnews.go.com/US/california-beach-seized-black-family-1924-set-returned/story?id=77191841
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,977
    edited March 2023
    Mr. B, it was still not working then decided to come back for reasons that are strange and noetic.

    Glad it's back.

    Edited extra bit: and thanks for asking :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,204

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Tory voters still believing in fairytales then.
    No, they just oppose big public sector payrises
    Exactly. They want a world class health service, while not paying the market rate for staff. That only ends one way. Fairytales.
    No, they just don't see why public sector workers should get more than the 6% average UK payrise most of them are getting paid for from higher taxes on them or increased borrowing
    That's not how capitalism works.
    There’s nearly no capitalism in how public sector pay is decided. Especially with centralised pay negotiations between government and unions.

    Actually allowing modern industrial relations practices into the room would fix a number of issues.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,441
    edited March 2023
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Alba getting more unpopular?

    Favourability of Political Parties in Scotland:

    LAB: +10% (+3)
    SNP: -1% (-13)
    LDM: -13% (-1)
    GRN: -17% (-6)
    CON: -34% (+4)
    REF: -34% (=)
    ALBA: -47% (-8)

    Via @RedfieldWilton
    , On 2-5 March,
    Changes w/ 26-27 November 2022.


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1633532296920719361

    But, but, but….

    @Mexicanpete said:
    ...
    At the next GE the SNP are going to smash Starmer Labour out of the park.
    Well they'll probably still have loads more seats than Labour in Scotland. But it pretty encouraging.
    labour in Scotland are like a turd, they cannot be polished and no matter how much glitter you sprinkle on them they will still be a turd.
    Nevertheless, they will be a much larger turd going forward.
    Backwards, surely ...? Being a turd and all that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,743
    Sleet here now, temperature falling. Sleet getting closer to all snow as I write! Not very heavy though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Since the media don't seem to be reporting it much, here's a report about the Post Office Horizon scandal.

    "IT worker evidence reveals a toxic Post Office IT helpdesk that discriminated against subpostmasters
    IT worker tells public inquiry that the Post Office Horizon helpdesk was toxic, rudderless and racist"

    https://www.computerweekly.com/news/365532063/IT-worker-evidence-reveals-a-toxic-Post-Office-IT-helpdesk-that-discriminated-against-subpostmasters

    YouTube channel featuring videos of each day's hearings.

    https://www.youtube.com/@postofficehorizonitinquiry947/videos

    In the end, this Post office issue is why it is good to live in this country, problems like this get unearthed and eventually resolved.



    Judging by the interviews with various postmasters, the Post Office seemed quite capable of ruining the lives of WWC subpostmasters.

    Seriously - I have little doubt that such a stupidly, malevolent policy was carried out with racism, sexism, homophobia and about every prejudice they could find. Scum are like that.
    The deeply depressing thing about the human condition was that cruel indifference was enough. Nothing else required than an inability to care or empathise.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,523
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    WillG said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    I have to admit this thought occurred to me when someone suggested the Tories taking on David Attenborough next as being a stupid idea (which it very much would be), due to comments he's made about the industrial revolution - whilst he may have thought through the implications of that, I do think it has an image problem which doesn't consider the good points.

    Err not sure these two things are the same. The first counts as pure environmental degradation, the second was costly but had the upside of by far the biggest increase in human welfare in history.


    Unfair to pick on this otherwise interesting post but it's a mistake that comes up surprisingly often. What do people think life would be like if we hadn't burnt fossil fuels? Like it is now, just no climate crisis?

    https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1633845495595671552/photo/1

    We’d have chopped down all the forests, and burned them for energy.

    People who wish the Industrial Revolution had never happened seem to imagine themselves living like lords, rather than like peasants.
    I don't think that's the error. I think they just don't know history and don't have much understanding of pre-industrial life. They have a vision of Hobbits in the Shire.
    I think that’s right. And the Shire was rural Warwickshire in the 1890’s, rather than a medieval society.

    A pre-industrial world is one where starvation is a reality when the crops fail; most children don’t reach adulthood; most homes are damp and insanitary; people die of infections and illnesses that are easily treated today; violent crime is rife; competition for resources is fierce, and the class system is brutal.
    To an extent but crime was also lower in rural pre industrial England than in cities in the industrial revolution, food was organic and pesticide free, people spent more time outdoors than indoors looking at phones and screens. There was also arguably more community cohesion, whether at church or town fayres etc and families tended to stick together and there was no divorce
    Most died before they could have got a divorce
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,322
    edited March 2023
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem
    There was a very interesting report recently that suggested, counterintuitively, that it's London's underperformance since the GFC that has been dragging down UK growth. Perhaps the fixation on levelling up is based on a false premise.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a93e7cff-f2b4-45f7-9c7b-d4a031aaff4b

    "Ever since the global financial crisis, London’s annual productivity growth of 0.2 per cent has been lower than the 0.3 per cent achieved in the rest of the UK. This contrasts with the decade before 2007, when the capital achieved annual productivity gains of 3.1 per cent, compared with 1.7 per cent elsewhere. The UK economy does therefore have a London problem. It is that the capital is no longer boosting output and incomes as it once did."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,441
    edited March 2023
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    WillG said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    I have to admit this thought occurred to me when someone suggested the Tories taking on David Attenborough next as being a stupid idea (which it very much would be), due to comments he's made about the industrial revolution - whilst he may have thought through the implications of that, I do think it has an image problem which doesn't consider the good points.

    Err not sure these two things are the same. The first counts as pure environmental degradation, the second was costly but had the upside of by far the biggest increase in human welfare in history.


    Unfair to pick on this otherwise interesting post but it's a mistake that comes up surprisingly often. What do people think life would be like if we hadn't burnt fossil fuels? Like it is now, just no climate crisis?

    https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1633845495595671552/photo/1

    We’d have chopped down all the forests, and burned them for energy.

    People who wish the Industrial Revolution had never happened seem to imagine themselves living like lords, rather than like peasants.
    I don't think that's the error. I think they just don't know history and don't have much understanding of pre-industrial life. They have a vision of Hobbits in the Shire.
    I think that’s right. And the Shire was rural Warwickshire in the 1890’s, rather than a medieval society.

    A pre-industrial world is one where starvation is a reality when the crops fail; most children don’t reach adulthood; most homes are damp and insanitary; people die of infections and illnesses that are easily treated today; violent crime is rife; competition for resources is fierce, and the class system is brutal.
    To an extent but crime was also lower in rural pre industrial England than in cities in the industrial revolution, food was organic and pesticide free, people spent more time outdoors than indoors looking at phones and screens. There was also arguably more community cohesion, whether at church or town fayres etc and families tended to stick together and there was no divorce
    Most died before they could have got a divorce
    Or just abandoned each other and moved on and remarried. Edit: making divorce so expensive that ionly the richest could afford it (in E&W), and making women's property their husbands', makes the divorce rate really useless evidence for family stability and contentment, doesn't it?

    HYUFD is really nostalgic for the old days when only people with property had the vote, and the main public entertainment was hanging people who stole a few hankies through poverty, isn't he?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048
    edited March 2023
    The King names Prince Edward as the new Duke of Edinburgh

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64913224
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem
    There was a very interesting report recently that suggested, counterintuitively, that it's London's underperformance since the GFC that has been dragging down UK growth. Perhaps the fixation on levelling up is based on a false premise.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a93e7cff-f2b4-45f7-9c7b-d4a031aaff4b
    May I refer the honourable gentleman to my earlier comment on the effect of financial services since the GFC? It is inevitable that the brunt of that would be borne by London, just as it was the cherry on the cake before that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    Sure maybe Leon was swearing at the LA Times article, rather than Nigelb, who didn't mention race. In which case he could have clarified that rather than doubling down.

    I would encourage anyone interested to read the actual article though:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    If it's true, as claimed, that LA has a shameful history of racist housing and freeway construction policies (which sounds at least plausible to me though maybe that's just my own prejudice I don't know anything about LA), then surely the racial aspect of air pollution in predominantly non-white neighborhoods in LA IS relevant and not 'madness' as Leon put it. The history of air pollution in London isn't very relevant here.
    I think there’s a more general point.
    What’s depicted as a passive process - the poor tend to live in more polluted areas - really isn’t anymore, as we’re far more aware than in the past of the consequences of development without adequate environmental controls.
    Which is why those poor areas, as far as the developed world is concerned, are increasingly located overseas.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,743
    Carnyx said:

    Cicero said:

    I note the crushing Lib Dem win in Costorphine Murrayfield, 56% and won on first preferences, making West Edinburgh a real fortress for Alex Cole-Hamilton. Further weakness in the SNP and Green vote. Suggests that the East coast is increasingly looking at the Nats with a more sceptical eye.


    That's a Scttish local election where the vacancy is in a seat which was won by the SNP third in the row last time. Comparing apples and oranges. In fact no great change from last time where the LDs got the first and second seats on the slate. Much smaller turnout, which would favour the oldies with postal votes.


    https://ballotbox.scot/preview-corstorphine
    Good LibDem performance in the two London by elections last night, though.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Interesting Monbiot piece on Russell Brand. I haven't been following the latter's descent into conspiracy theory nonsense.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/10/russell-brand-politics-public-figures-responsibility
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    WillG said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    I have to admit this thought occurred to me when someone suggested the Tories taking on David Attenborough next as being a stupid idea (which it very much would be), due to comments he's made about the industrial revolution - whilst he may have thought through the implications of that, I do think it has an image problem which doesn't consider the good points.

    Err not sure these two things are the same. The first counts as pure environmental degradation, the second was costly but had the upside of by far the biggest increase in human welfare in history.


    Unfair to pick on this otherwise interesting post but it's a mistake that comes up surprisingly often. What do people think life would be like if we hadn't burnt fossil fuels? Like it is now, just no climate crisis?

    https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1633845495595671552/photo/1

    We’d have chopped down all the forests, and burned them for energy.

    People who wish the Industrial Revolution had never happened seem to imagine themselves living like lords, rather than like peasants.
    I don't think that's the error. I think they just don't know history and don't have much understanding of pre-industrial life. They have a vision of Hobbits in the Shire.
    I think that’s right. And the Shire was rural Warwickshire in the 1890’s, rather than a medieval society.

    A pre-industrial world is one where starvation is a reality when the crops fail; most children don’t reach adulthood; most homes are damp and insanitary; people die of infections and illnesses that are easily treated today; violent crime is rife; competition for resources is fierce, and the class system is brutal.
    To an extent but crime was also lower in rural pre industrial England than in cities in the industrial revolution, food was organic and pesticide free, people spent more time outdoors than indoors looking at phones and screens. There was also arguably more community cohesion, whether at church or town fayres etc and families tended to stick together and there was no divorce
    Most died before they could have got a divorce
    Or just abandoned each other and moved on and remarried.

    HYUFD is really nostalgic for the old days when only people with property had the vote, and the main public entertainment was hanging people who stole a few hankies through poverty, isn't he?
    Divorce was illegal for the majority in the Middle Ages, so you couldn't remarry if your spouse was still alive
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,441
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    WillG said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    I have to admit this thought occurred to me when someone suggested the Tories taking on David Attenborough next as being a stupid idea (which it very much would be), due to comments he's made about the industrial revolution - whilst he may have thought through the implications of that, I do think it has an image problem which doesn't consider the good points.

    Err not sure these two things are the same. The first counts as pure environmental degradation, the second was costly but had the upside of by far the biggest increase in human welfare in history.


    Unfair to pick on this otherwise interesting post but it's a mistake that comes up surprisingly often. What do people think life would be like if we hadn't burnt fossil fuels? Like it is now, just no climate crisis?

    https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1633845495595671552/photo/1

    We’d have chopped down all the forests, and burned them for energy.

    People who wish the Industrial Revolution had never happened seem to imagine themselves living like lords, rather than like peasants.
    I don't think that's the error. I think they just don't know history and don't have much understanding of pre-industrial life. They have a vision of Hobbits in the Shire.
    I think that’s right. And the Shire was rural Warwickshire in the 1890’s, rather than a medieval society.

    A pre-industrial world is one where starvation is a reality when the crops fail; most children don’t reach adulthood; most homes are damp and insanitary; people die of infections and illnesses that are easily treated today; violent crime is rife; competition for resources is fierce, and the class system is brutal.
    To an extent but crime was also lower in rural pre industrial England than in cities in the industrial revolution, food was organic and pesticide free, people spent more time outdoors than indoors looking at phones and screens. There was also arguably more community cohesion, whether at church or town fayres etc and families tended to stick together and there was no divorce
    Most died before they could have got a divorce
    Or just abandoned each other and moved on and remarried.

    HYUFD is really nostalgic for the old days when only people with property had the vote, and the main public entertainment was hanging people who stole a few hankies through poverty, isn't he?
    Divorce was illegal for the majority in the Middle Ages, so you couldn't remarry if your spouse was still alive
    Also, you are forgetting thast the biggest criminals were the lords and landowners. Massive thugs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Tory voters still believing in fairytales then.
    No, they just oppose big public sector payrises
    Exactly. They want a world class health service, while not paying the market rate for staff. That only ends one way. Fairytales.
    No, they just don't see why public sector workers should get more than the 6% average UK payrise most of them are getting paid for from higher taxes on them or increased borrowing
    That's not how capitalism works.
    If you want pure capitalism then there wouldn't be any public sector at all.

    There would be zero tax, zero public spending and all schools would be private schools and all healthcare funded through private health insurance and there would be no welfare state either
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    HYUFD said:

    Most 2019 Labour voters back higher taxes or higher borrowing to increase public sector pay. However most 2019 Conservative voters don't RedfieldWilton finds

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633882897508597765?s=20

    Overall voters narrowly back increasing taxes but oppose increasing borrowing to fund public sector payrises

    Perhaps they might get different answers if the questions were more along the lines of

    If we have 100k+ vacancies in the NHS should we raise pay to fill them or leave them blank?
    If we end up paying agency nurses £500+ per shift would it be a good idea to raise pay to retain more permanent staff?
    If you or your family end up in hospital, would you prefer the staff to be on strike a few days a month with low morale on the rest or to have a functioning motivated workforce to treat you?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,523
    Cicero said:

    I note the crushing Lib Dem win in Costorphine Murrayfield, 56% and won on first preferences, making West Edinburgh a real fortress for Alex Cole-Hamilton. Further weakness in the SNP and Green vote. Suggests that the East coast is increasingly looking at the Nats with a more sceptical eye.

    Just LOL, ACH is the fanny of fannies, an absolute plankton who could not run a bath. If it were not for free seats for losers the illiberal Non-democrats would be even more extinct than they are now. A few idiots led by a clown.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,313
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    Sure maybe Leon was swearing at the LA Times article, rather than Nigelb, who didn't mention race. In which case he could have clarified that rather than doubling down.

    I would encourage anyone interested to read the actual article though:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    If it's true, as claimed, that LA has a shameful history of racist housing and freeway construction policies (which sounds at least plausible to me though maybe that's just my own prejudice I don't know anything about LA), then surely the racial aspect of air pollution in predominantly non-white neighborhoods in LA IS relevant and not 'madness' as Leon put it. The history of air pollution in London isn't very relevant here.
    I think there’s a more general point.
    What’s depicted as a passive process - the poor tend to live in more polluted areas - really isn’t anymore, as we’re far more aware than in the past of the consequences of development without adequate environmental controls.
    Which is why those poor areas, as far as the developed world is concerned, are increasingly located overseas.
    That represents a rather more complicated set of trade offs, though, since those places may be actively deciding to trade pollution for growth.
    In the case of the US poor, it’s all downside.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,523

    Sleet here now, temperature falling. Sleet getting closer to all snow as I write! Not very heavy though.

    Morning OKC , blue sky and sunshine again for south west Scotland. We had flurry of snow for about 3 minutes last night.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,092

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem
    There was a very interesting report recently that suggested, counterintuitively, that it's London's underperformance since the GFC that has been dragging down UK growth. Perhaps the fixation on levelling up is based on a false premise.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a93e7cff-f2b4-45f7-9c7b-d4a031aaff4b

    "Ever since the global financial crisis, London’s annual productivity growth of 0.2 per cent has been lower than the 0.3 per cent achieved in the rest of the UK. This contrasts with the decade before 2007, when the capital achieved annual productivity gains of 3.1 per cent, compared with 1.7 per cent elsewhere. The UK economy does therefore have a London problem. It is that the capital is no longer boosting output and incomes as it once did."
    Took me a while to get GFC (Global Financial Crisis). I googled it and the first thing which came up was Gillingham Football Club. Which seemed an unlikely source of financial woes.

    Maybe children going back to school = parents going back to work? There is a disproportionate amount of time off taken (therefore work not done; therefore GV not added) during school holidays.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    Sure maybe Leon was swearing at the LA Times article, rather than Nigelb, who didn't mention race. In which case he could have clarified that rather than doubling down.

    I would encourage anyone interested to read the actual article though:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    If it's true, as claimed, that LA has a shameful history of racist housing and freeway construction policies (which sounds at least plausible to me though maybe that's just my own prejudice I don't know anything about LA), then surely the racial aspect of air pollution in predominantly non-white neighborhoods in LA IS relevant and not 'madness' as Leon put it. The history of air pollution in London isn't very relevant here.
    I think there’s a more general point.
    What’s depicted as a passive process - the poor tend to live in more polluted areas - really isn’t anymore, as we’re far more aware than in the past of the consequences of development without adequate environmental controls.
    Which is why those poor areas, as far as the developed world is concerned, are increasingly located overseas.
    On the other hand, much of the world is getting richer. I’ve been to Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia on this trip. All are obviously much more prosperous than ten years ago. Encouraging
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,523
    Carnyx said:

    Cicero said:

    I note the crushing Lib Dem win in Costorphine Murrayfield, 56% and won on first preferences, making West Edinburgh a real fortress for Alex Cole-Hamilton. Further weakness in the SNP and Green vote. Suggests that the East coast is increasingly looking at the Nats with a more sceptical eye.


    That's a Scttish local election where the vacancy is in a seat which was won by the SNP third in the row last time. Comparing apples and oranges. In fact no great change from last time where the LDs got the first and second seats on the slate. Much smaller turnout, which would favour the oldies with postal votes.


    https://ballotbox.scot/preview-corstorphine
    We can look forward to Coco the Clown as FM and his diddy men/women LD MSP's based on this.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,743
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    WillG said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    I have to admit this thought occurred to me when someone suggested the Tories taking on David Attenborough next as being a stupid idea (which it very much would be), due to comments he's made about the industrial revolution - whilst he may have thought through the implications of that, I do think it has an image problem which doesn't consider the good points.

    Err not sure these two things are the same. The first counts as pure environmental degradation, the second was costly but had the upside of by far the biggest increase in human welfare in history.


    Unfair to pick on this otherwise interesting post but it's a mistake that comes up surprisingly often. What do people think life would be like if we hadn't burnt fossil fuels? Like it is now, just no climate crisis?

    https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1633845495595671552/photo/1

    We’d have chopped down all the forests, and burned them for energy.

    People who wish the Industrial Revolution had never happened seem to imagine themselves living like lords, rather than like peasants.
    I don't think that's the error. I think they just don't know history and don't have much understanding of pre-industrial life. They have a vision of Hobbits in the Shire.
    I think that’s right. And the Shire was rural Warwickshire in the 1890’s, rather than a medieval society.

    A pre-industrial world is one where starvation is a reality when the crops fail; most children don’t reach adulthood; most homes are damp and insanitary; people die of infections and illnesses that are easily treated today; violent crime is rife; competition for resources is fierce, and the class system is brutal.
    To an extent but crime was also lower in rural pre industrial England than in cities in the industrial revolution, food was organic and pesticide free, people spent more time outdoors than indoors looking at phones and screens. There was also arguably more community cohesion, whether at church or town fayres etc and families tended to stick together and there was no divorce
    Most died before they could have got a divorce
    Or just abandoned each other and moved on and remarried.

    HYUFD is really nostalgic for the old days when only people with property had the vote, and the main public entertainment was hanging people who stole a few hankies through poverty, isn't he?
    Divorce was illegal for the majority in the Middle Ages, so you couldn't remarry if your spouse was still alive
    How common was wife-selling though?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Somebody watched Wolf of Wall Street way too many times.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,313
    Another interesting article on Aukus.

    Submarine scramble: Tech issues could threaten 3-nation megaplan for the Pacific
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/09/submarine-tech-3-nation-plan-pacific-00086440

    The biggest risk to the program is political, as it will require a good decade of commitment from all three countries before it’s secure against one of them trying to back out.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    MaxPB said:

    IMF will be in tears this morning.

    I think you possibly overestimate the extent to which the IMF cares about the UK GDP data (and they'll be asleep right now in any case). I'm not sure why you are hating on the good people of 19th Street NW anyway - the IMF's forecasts of UK GDP growth this year and next are exactly in line with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.6% and +0.9% respectively.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,523
    DavidL said:

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Somebody watched Wolf of Wall Street way too many times.
    Is that not your average lawyer David.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,845
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Mr. Jessop, if this melted rapidly, there would be a ton of flooding.

    Remember the 10:1 ratio between snow and water. It will not produce nearly as much water as you think.
    But does tend to all melt in one big go. Thaw in the Cairngorms etc
    It doesn't. It depends on how much there has been and for how long. A lot of snow can take days or even weeks to disappear.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    WillG said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    I have to admit this thought occurred to me when someone suggested the Tories taking on David Attenborough next as being a stupid idea (which it very much would be), due to comments he's made about the industrial revolution - whilst he may have thought through the implications of that, I do think it has an image problem which doesn't consider the good points.

    Err not sure these two things are the same. The first counts as pure environmental degradation, the second was costly but had the upside of by far the biggest increase in human welfare in history.


    Unfair to pick on this otherwise interesting post but it's a mistake that comes up surprisingly often. What do people think life would be like if we hadn't burnt fossil fuels? Like it is now, just no climate crisis?

    https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1633845495595671552/photo/1

    We’d have chopped down all the forests, and burned them for energy.

    People who wish the Industrial Revolution had never happened seem to imagine themselves living like lords, rather than like peasants.
    I don't think that's the error. I think they just don't know history and don't have much understanding of pre-industrial life. They have a vision of Hobbits in the Shire.
    I think that’s right. And the Shire was rural Warwickshire in the 1890’s, rather than a medieval society.

    A pre-industrial world is one where starvation is a reality when the crops fail; most children don’t reach adulthood; most homes are damp and insanitary; people die of infections and illnesses that are easily treated today; violent crime is rife; competition for resources is fierce, and the class system is brutal.
    To an extent but crime was also lower in rural pre industrial England than in cities in the industrial revolution, food was organic and pesticide free, people spent more time outdoors than indoors looking at phones and screens. There was also arguably more community cohesion, whether at church or town fayres etc and families tended to stick together and there was no divorce
    Most died before they could have got a divorce
    Or just abandoned each other and moved on and remarried.

    HYUFD is really nostalgic for the old days when only people with property had the vote, and the main public entertainment was hanging people who stole a few hankies through poverty, isn't he?
    Divorce was illegal for the majority in the Middle Ages, so you couldn't remarry if your spouse was still alive
    Not illegal, more highly impractical. You could only be divorced by dispensation from the Pope, which was not usually something poorer people could petition for. And even then, as Henry VIII found out the hard way, the Pope might refuse to grant it.

    Heck, it wasn't even easy for the wealthier ones. John of Gaunt would have divorced his second wife within seconds of meeting Katherine Swynford if he could. As it was, he had to wait until Constance died before marrying her.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,126
    Carnyx said:

    Cicero said:

    I note the crushing Lib Dem win in Costorphine Murrayfield, 56% and won on first preferences, making West Edinburgh a real fortress for Alex Cole-Hamilton. Further weakness in the SNP and Green vote. Suggests that the East coast is increasingly looking at the Nats with a more sceptical eye.


    That's a Scttish local election where the vacancy is in a seat which was won by the SNP third in the row last time. Comparing apples and oranges. In fact no great change from last time where the LDs got the first and second seats on the slate. Much smaller turnout, which would favour the oldies with postal votes.


    https://ballotbox.scot/preview-corstorphine
    I´m familiar with the system... Point is that the Lib Dems advanced from 49% to 56%, all other parties fell. The Nats and the Tories doing particularly badly,
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem
    There was a very interesting report recently that suggested, counterintuitively, that it's London's underperformance since the GFC that has been dragging down UK growth. Perhaps the fixation on levelling up is based on a false premise.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a93e7cff-f2b4-45f7-9c7b-d4a031aaff4b

    "Ever since the global financial crisis, London’s annual productivity growth of 0.2 per cent has been lower than the 0.3 per cent achieved in the rest of the UK. This contrasts with the decade before 2007, when the capital achieved annual productivity gains of 3.1 per cent, compared with 1.7 per cent elsewhere. The UK economy does therefore have a London problem. It is that the capital is no longer boosting output and incomes as it once did."
    Took me a while to get GFC (Global Financial Crisis). I googled it and the first thing which came up was Gillingham Football Club. Which seemed an unlikely source of financial woes.

    Maybe children going back to school = parents going back to work? There is a disproportionate amount of time off taken (therefore work not done; therefore GV not added) during school holidays.
    GFC is normally Great Financial Crash. But its the same thing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,441

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Unfortunate ambiguity (not yours) in first sentence ...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    edited March 2023

    Interesting Monbiot piece on Russell Brand. I haven't been following the latter's descent into conspiracy theory nonsense.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/10/russell-brand-politics-public-figures-responsibility

    Why on earth would anyone follow Russell Brand in the first place.

    He is like a six yr old who has learned the word consanguinity and is using it at every available opportunity and to start with all the adults gather round and say how wonderful but after a short while they get bored, smile indulgently, and raise their eyes to the heavens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,981
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem
    There was a very interesting report recently that suggested, counterintuitively, that it's London's underperformance since the GFC that has been dragging down UK growth. Perhaps the fixation on levelling up is based on a false premise.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a93e7cff-f2b4-45f7-9c7b-d4a031aaff4b

    "Ever since the global financial crisis, London’s annual productivity growth of 0.2 per cent has been lower than the 0.3 per cent achieved in the rest of the UK. This contrasts with the decade before 2007, when the capital achieved annual productivity gains of 3.1 per cent, compared with 1.7 per cent elsewhere. The UK economy does therefore have a London problem. It is that the capital is no longer boosting output and incomes as it once did."
    Took me a while to get GFC (Global Financial Crisis). I googled it and the first thing which came up was Gillingham Football Club. Which seemed an unlikely source of financial woes.

    Maybe children going back to school = parents going back to work? There is a disproportionate amount of time off taken (therefore work not done; therefore GV not added) during school holidays.
    Children going back to school = Chelsea Tractors being filled for the school run = massive increase in fuel sales?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    DavidL said:

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Somebody watched Wolf of Wall Street way too many times.
    Somebody fucking watched the Wolf of fucking Wall Street way too fucking many fucking times.

    FTFY...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,204
    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Since the media don't seem to be reporting it much, here's a report about the Post Office Horizon scandal.

    "IT worker evidence reveals a toxic Post Office IT helpdesk that discriminated against subpostmasters
    IT worker tells public inquiry that the Post Office Horizon helpdesk was toxic, rudderless and racist"

    https://www.computerweekly.com/news/365532063/IT-worker-evidence-reveals-a-toxic-Post-Office-IT-helpdesk-that-discriminated-against-subpostmasters

    YouTube channel featuring videos of each day's hearings.

    https://www.youtube.com/@postofficehorizonitinquiry947/videos

    In the end, this Post office issue is why it is good to live in this country, problems like this get unearthed and eventually resolved.



    Judging by the interviews with various postmasters, the Post Office seemed quite capable of ruining the lives of WWC subpostmasters.

    Seriously - I have little doubt that such a stupidly, malevolent policy was carried out with racism, sexism, homophobia and about every prejudice they could find. Scum are like that.
    The deeply depressing thing about the human condition was that cruel indifference was enough. Nothing else required than an inability to care or empathise.
    Time to Godwinise the thread.

    The same lack of empathy displayed is exactly that needed by 1984 style regimes to implement their policies. You need lots of unthinking barstewards with clipboards.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    Carnyx said:

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Unfortunate ambiguity (not yours) in first sentence ...
    Even more bizarrely, it does appear it meant 'he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues.'
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    Sure maybe Leon was swearing at the LA Times article, rather than Nigelb, who didn't mention race. In which case he could have clarified that rather than doubling down.

    I would encourage anyone interested to read the actual article though:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    If it's true, as claimed, that LA has a shameful history of racist housing and freeway construction policies (which sounds at least plausible to me though maybe that's just my own prejudice I don't know anything about LA), then surely the racial aspect of air pollution in predominantly non-white neighborhoods in LA IS relevant and not 'madness' as Leon put it. The history of air pollution in London isn't very relevant here.
    I think there’s a more general point.
    What’s depicted as a passive process - the poor tend to live in more polluted areas - really isn’t anymore, as we’re far more aware than in the past of the consequences of development without adequate environmental controls.
    Which is why those poor areas, as far as the developed world is concerned, are increasingly located overseas.
    On the other hand, much of the world is getting richer. I’ve been to Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia on this trip. All are obviously much more prosperous than ten years ago. Encouraging
    Absolutely. You can track the process by looking at the shift in manufacturing - eg in Asia, everything was "Made in Hong Kong" which then became too expensive so the processes moved to Guangdong, then that became too expensive and they moved out to Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, etc.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    MaxPB said:

    IMF will be in tears this morning.

    I think you possibly overestimate the extent to which the IMF cares about the UK GDP data (and they'll be asleep right now in any case). I'm not sure why you are hating on the good people of 19th Street NW anyway - the IMF's forecasts of UK GDP growth this year and next are exactly in line with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.6% and +0.9% respectively.
    They definitely care about getting significant economic predictions wrong. It’s one of their main tasks. Not good for their reputation to produce laughably inaccurate prognoses (if that so happens)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem
    There was a very interesting report recently that suggested, counterintuitively, that it's London's underperformance since the GFC that has been dragging down UK growth. Perhaps the fixation on levelling up is based on a false premise.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a93e7cff-f2b4-45f7-9c7b-d4a031aaff4b

    "Ever since the global financial crisis, London’s annual productivity growth of 0.2 per cent has been lower than the 0.3 per cent achieved in the rest of the UK. This contrasts with the decade before 2007, when the capital achieved annual productivity gains of 3.1 per cent, compared with 1.7 per cent elsewhere. The UK economy does therefore have a London problem. It is that the capital is no longer boosting output and incomes as it once did."
    Took me a while to get GFC (Global Financial Crisis). I googled it and the first thing which came up was Gillingham Football Club. Which seemed an unlikely source of financial woes.

    Maybe children going back to school = parents going back to work? There is a disproportionate amount of time off taken (therefore work not done; therefore GV not added) during school holidays.
    Children going back to school = Chelsea Tractors being filled for the school run = massive increase in fuel sales?
    Chelsea tractors? Is Neil Parrish suddenly branching out???
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Somebody watched Wolf of Wall Street way too many times.
    Somebody fucking watched the Wolf of fucking Wall Street way too fucking many fucking times.

    FTFY...
    Some things are readily implied and do not need to be expressly stated.

    The scene in that film where Dicaprio's character uses Wall Street selling techniques to sell penny shares is one of my all time favourite scenes. Brilliant. And, of course, the seeds of the GFC.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,313
    TOPPING said:

    Interesting Monbiot piece on Russell Brand. I haven't been following the latter's descent into conspiracy theory nonsense.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/10/russell-brand-politics-public-figures-responsibility

    Why on earth would anyone follow Russell Brand in the first place.

    He is like a six yr old who has learned the word consanguinity and is using it at every available opportunity and to start with all the adults gather round and say how wonderful but after a short while they get bored, smile indulgently, and raise their eyes to the heavens.
    The first words of the headline mark the article as not worth reading.
    “ I once admired Russell Brand…”
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    edited March 2023
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    IMF will be in tears this morning.

    I think you possibly overestimate the extent to which the IMF cares about the UK GDP data (and they'll be asleep right now in any case). I'm not sure why you are hating on the good people of 19th Street NW anyway - the IMF's forecasts of UK GDP growth this year and next are exactly in line with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.6% and +0.9% respectively.
    They definitely care about getting significant economic predictions wrong. It’s one of their main tasks. Not good for their reputation to produce laughably inaccurate prognoses (if that so happens)
    You are not quite understanding financial forecast models. They are there to provide a logic check for stakeholders to understand the various factors involved in any particular forecast outcome. Whether it is 0.4% or -0.4% is less the issue than what assumptions have been made to arrive at the one or the other.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,204
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Somebody watched Wolf of Wall Street way too many times.
    Somebody fucking watched the Wolf of fucking Wall Street way too fucking many fucking times.

    FTFY...
    Some things are readily implied and do not need to be expressly stated.

    The scene in that film where Dicaprio's character uses Wall Street selling techniques to sell penny shares is one of my all time favourite scenes. Brilliant. And, of course, the seeds of the GFC.
    The selling techniques depicted aren't especially Wall Street - see the real estate trade and Glengarry Glen Ross, and the long history of sell crap to the foolish.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Somebody watched Wolf of Wall Street way too many times.
    Somebody fucking watched the Wolf of fucking Wall Street way too fucking many fucking times.

    FTFY...
    Some things are readily implied and do not need to be expressly stated.

    The scene in that film where Dicaprio's character uses Wall Street selling techniques to sell penny shares is one of my all time favourite scenes. Brilliant. And, of course, the seeds of the GFC.
    The selling techniques depicted aren't especially Wall Street - see the real estate trade and Glengarry Glen Ross, and the long history of sell crap to the foolish.
    Absolutely. Greed and fear. We all have and exploit it depending upon circumstance.

    I can't really think of any sales role without thinking of Glengarry Glen Ross. Mesmerising. The 1992 film was and remains an extraordinary work.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Dearie me. As my old mum would say

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    The latest racial justice battleground:

    image

    https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1633840062160072707

    Has been a battleground for some time, as fact that poor parts of town in US are generally down-wind of whatever pollution is happening in the city or metro area. Thus usually on the east side, as most weather comes from the west in North America. PLUS things like dumps, incinerators, smokestacks, freight yards, etc, etc tend to end up in poorer hoods NOT the high-hat districts.

    So NOT the latest, but still a big deal. In terms of equity AND environment.
    If you look at this report on the ten areas with the worst air pollution in the US, it confirms that’s largely true.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/
    08/10-most-air-polluted-places-to-live-us
    Ffs this is true of every city in the northern hemisphere. Winds from the west prevail, so pollution is driven east. This is why poor areas of cities tend to be in the east. See: the East End

    It has absolutely fuck all to do with race and diversity and racial equity unless traditional cockneys are secretly African. It’s just more American madness. Get a grip
    Read the post I replied to and get a grip yourself.
    Your race obsession is disturbing.
    You’re the guys that brought race into it! Literally. I’m pointing out that this so called racial inequity is all about social class, not race, and if you had a brain you’d already know the east/west wealth divide is an established urban phenomenon, because of the weather in northern hemisphere cities

    You’re just not very clever
    I didn’t mention race; nor did SS.
    You’re an obsessed idiot.
    Here’s what he posted you pitiful moron


    He replied to what williamglenn posted.p, which seems to have got you both confused and exited. Use your brain.
    He was replying to a post saying “white people are polluting non white people” and he said Yes, this is an issue of equity

    And apparently I’m the person who brings race into this debate. Tbh “pitiful moron” was generous
    Clearly it was @williamglenn who brought race into the conversation, not Seashanty, not Nigelb.

    And yes, your obsession with race is deeply disturbing.
    This whole squabble is just childish. If a topic is opened clearly about race, which it was, its not exactly unreasonable for someone coming into it later to also talk about race, even if others responding in the debate intended to take it in another direction. Thatd be like complaining about politics being brought up in a PB thread even though most people were commenting about trains.
    Sure maybe Leon was swearing at the LA Times article, rather than Nigelb, who didn't mention race. In which case he could have clarified that rather than doubling down.

    I would encourage anyone interested to read the actual article though:

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2023-03-09/white-drivers-are-polluting-the-air-breathed-by-l-a-s-people-of-color-boiling-point

    If it's true, as claimed, that LA has a shameful history of racist housing and freeway construction policies (which sounds at least plausible to me though maybe that's just my own prejudice I don't know anything about LA), then surely the racial aspect of air pollution in predominantly non-white neighborhoods in LA IS relevant and not 'madness' as Leon put it. The history of air pollution in London isn't very relevant here.
    I think there’s a more general point.
    What’s depicted as a passive process - the poor tend to live in more polluted areas - really isn’t anymore, as we’re far more aware than in the past of the consequences of development without adequate environmental controls.
    Which is why those poor areas, as far as the developed world is concerned, are increasingly located overseas.
    On the other hand, much of the world is getting richer. I’ve been to Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia on this trip. All are obviously much more prosperous than ten years ago. Encouraging
    Absolutely. You can track the process by looking at the shift in manufacturing - eg in Asia, everything was "Made in Hong Kong" which then became too expensive so the processes moved to Guangdong, then that became too expensive and they moved out to Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, etc.
    Bangladesh is one of the secret success stories of the modern global economy. All those clothes with “made in Bangladesh on them” - they have a major impact on the Bangladesh economy. Bangladesh used to be a byword for poverty and economic failure. Not any more

    Important to remember this stuff as we wallow in decadent western gloom. Much of the world is still booming


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting Monbiot piece on Russell Brand. I haven't been following the latter's descent into conspiracy theory nonsense.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/10/russell-brand-politics-public-figures-responsibility

    Why on earth would anyone follow Russell Brand in the first place.

    He is like a six yr old who has learned the word consanguinity and is using it at every available opportunity and to start with all the adults gather round and say how wonderful but after a short while they get bored, smile indulgently, and raise their eyes to the heavens.
    The first words of the headline mark the article as not worth reading.
    “ I once admired Russell Brand…”
    Russell Brand has gone from backing Ed Miliband in 2015 to being pro Trump and anti Biden and anti Trudeau in less than a decade
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    IMF will be in tears this morning.

    I think you possibly overestimate the extent to which the IMF cares about the UK GDP data (and they'll be asleep right now in any case). I'm not sure why you are hating on the good people of 19th Street NW anyway - the IMF's forecasts of UK GDP growth this year and next are exactly in line with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.6% and +0.9% respectively.
    They definitely care about getting significant economic predictions wrong. It’s one of their main tasks. Not good for their reputation to produce laughably inaccurate prognoses (if that so happens)
    You are not quite understanding financial forecast models. They are there to provide a logic check for stakeholders to understand the various factors involved in any particular forecast outcome. Whether it is 0.4% or -0.4% is less the issue than what assumptions have been made to arrive at the one or the other.
    No, their forecasts are used in headlines in the FT etc etc and when they get it badly wrong - it looks bad. C’est tout. Not good for reputation. This isn’t a sophisticated point just a fact

    Next time they make a forecast people are more skeptical. And so on
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,476

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    January growth figure once again better than expected (although I am bemused that kids going to school directly boosts GDP). I wonder if a part of the budget next week might be an announcement that there won't be a recession this year after all. It should improve the government funding situation slightly. It will be interesting to see what Hunt chooses to do with that.

    This guardian graphic is interesting. UK GDP growth in recent years. Clearly it’s not great that we are emerging sluggishly from Covid. But another thing to note is absolutely zero effect from Brexit. Not a dent. The economy continued as before

    The big hit was from the GFC - that’s our problem
    There was a very interesting report recently that suggested, counterintuitively, that it's London's underperformance since the GFC that has been dragging down UK growth. Perhaps the fixation on levelling up is based on a false premise.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a93e7cff-f2b4-45f7-9c7b-d4a031aaff4b

    "Ever since the global financial crisis, London’s annual productivity growth of 0.2 per cent has been lower than the 0.3 per cent achieved in the rest of the UK. This contrasts with the decade before 2007, when the capital achieved annual productivity gains of 3.1 per cent, compared with 1.7 per cent elsewhere. The UK economy does therefore have a London problem. It is that the capital is no longer boosting output and incomes as it once did."
    Took me a while to get GFC (Global Financial Crisis). I googled it and the first thing which came up was Gillingham Football Club. Which seemed an unlikely source of financial woes.

    Maybe children going back to school = parents going back to work? There is a disproportionate amount of time off taken (therefore work not done; therefore GV not added) during school holidays.
    Children going back to school = Chelsea Tractors being filled for the school run = massive increase in fuel sales?
    I think the ONS are saying it in terms of more children in lessons and the value of that extra education. Which is fine, but it's surprising that the impact on the total is so big.

    Doesn't bode well for February and March, though.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    IMF will be in tears this morning.

    I think you possibly overestimate the extent to which the IMF cares about the UK GDP data (and they'll be asleep right now in any case). I'm not sure why you are hating on the good people of 19th Street NW anyway - the IMF's forecasts of UK GDP growth this year and next are exactly in line with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.6% and +0.9% respectively.
    They definitely care about getting significant economic predictions wrong. It’s one of their main tasks. Not good for their reputation to produce laughably inaccurate prognoses (if that so happens)
    The UK isn't really an important part of their global forecast. And since their forecast for the UK is completely in line with private sector forecasts it's not like they have gone out on a limb with a bold out of consensus call. January GDP being up 0.3% rather than the 0.1% expected by the market is really not something that will create any tremors of excitement at the IMF. More broadly, their forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing economies get more attention in the market because there is less information available for those economies and the IMF itself is a significant player there. For advanced economies like the UK the market pays little attention to IMF forecasts. They get treated more seriously by the press here than they deserve, IMHO.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    Nigelb said:

    Another good thread on intelligence estimates. The distinction between probability estimates, and confidence assessments is often ignored.

    There has been a lot of intelligence in the news recently: covid-19 origins, Havana syndrome & Nord Stream explosions. Intelligence-based claims are often eye-catching & appealing. My piece on why it's important to look closely at the confidence level.
    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1633919713087561735

    Not bothered to read it but am 99%+ sure that it will suggest that those with the most confidence are the BEST!!, especially those who can DEEM things to be TRUE, and assert the fickle minded sceptics wanting boring proof to be suitable for nothing better than accounting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    A City lawyer told a teenage female assistant that he wanted to have sex with her in front of their colleagues and sent her links to pornography including nude images of a Love Island star, a tribunal was told.

    Oliver Bretherton, who had a senior position at an Anglo-Canadian firm, is also accused of asking the 18-year-old to masturbate in front of him and of having sent her a video of himself performing a solo sex act.

    Bretherton, 41, admitted sending the woman pornography, including leaked images “relating to” Megan Barton-Hanson, who appeared on ITV’s Love Island in 2018, but denied doing so on many occasions.

    Lawyers for the profession’s regulator have told the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal that Bretherton, a married banking and finance specialist, recruited the woman about five years ago, just after she had finished her A-levels.

    Nimi Bruce, who appeared for the Solicitors Regulation Authority, told the tribunal that Bretherton said to the woman that he wanted to “f*** her and he would do it in the office and he didn’t care if there was a glass wall”, according to a report of the hearing in The Law Society Gazette.

    At the time, Bretherton was 36 and a lawyer at Gowling WLG, a large international practice based in the City and in Ottawa.

    Prosecuting lawyers added that Bretherton monitored the amount of time the woman spent in the lavatory and once threw ping-pong balls down her dress. He is alleged to have conducted a campaign of harassment against the woman, who has been referred to only as Person A, for more than a year.

    Allegations of harassment have also been made by two other women against the lawyer.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-lawyer-sent-nude-photos-of-love-island-star-to-18-year-old-assistant-nj33rqmkt

    Somebody watched Wolf of Wall Street way too many times.
    Somebody fucking watched the Wolf of fucking Wall Street way too fucking many fucking times.

    FTFY...
    Some things are readily implied and do not need to be expressly stated.

    The scene in that film where Dicaprio's character uses Wall Street selling techniques to sell penny shares is one of my all time favourite scenes. Brilliant. And, of course, the seeds of the GFC.
    Honest Trailers did one of their better spoofs on WOWS. Their final one was on the line 'sell me this pen.' 'It's the pen used by Leonardo di Caprio in Wolf of Wall Street! Should be easy money right there.'
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,787
    Nigelb said:

    Another interesting article on Aukus.

    Submarine scramble: Tech issues could threaten 3-nation megaplan for the Pacific
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/09/submarine-tech-3-nation-plan-pacific-00086440

    The biggest risk to the program is political, as it will require a good decade of commitment from all three countries before it’s secure against one of them trying to back out.

    Australia have been here a few times before with des grands projets navals. In the late 20s they got two O class boats that were meant to be the foundation of a new British-Australian submarine force that would dominate the Indo-Pacific region. Sound familiar? They gave up on them after a few years when they ran out of interest and money. The boats were returned to the RN who then accidentally sank one when HMS Triton torpedoed it off the coast of Norway.

    After WW2 they intended to operate a fleet of 5 carriers that would, with the US, dominate the Indo Pacific region. Sound familiar? They only ever acquired two but couldn't establish an air wing for Sydney so they used it as a transport while Melbourne battled on alone as their sole carrier. Eventually they ran out of interest and money, paying Melbourne off in the early 80s.

    They are definitely the feeblest leg on the AUKUS triskelion. It'd be unlikely to survive a Labor/Green coalition if that's where the electoral dice fell at any of the next three Federal elections.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting Monbiot piece on Russell Brand. I haven't been following the latter's descent into conspiracy theory nonsense.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/10/russell-brand-politics-public-figures-responsibility

    Why on earth would anyone follow Russell Brand in the first place.

    He is like a six yr old who has learned the word consanguinity and is using it at every available opportunity and to start with all the adults gather round and say how wonderful but after a short while they get bored, smile indulgently, and raise their eyes to the heavens.
    The first words of the headline mark the article as not worth reading.
    “ I once admired Russell Brand…”
    Russell Brand has gone from backing Ed Miliband in 2015 to being pro Trump and anti Biden and anti Trudeau in less than a decade
    If he's started droning on endlessly about the 'wokerati' then we know he has been hacked by Leon and replaced with deepfake videos scripted by jailbroken ChatGPT.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    IMF will be in tears this morning.

    I think you possibly overestimate the extent to which the IMF cares about the UK GDP data (and they'll be asleep right now in any case). I'm not sure why you are hating on the good people of 19th Street NW anyway - the IMF's forecasts of UK GDP growth this year and next are exactly in line with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.6% and +0.9% respectively.
    They definitely care about getting significant economic predictions wrong. It’s one of their main tasks. Not good for their reputation to produce laughably inaccurate prognoses (if that so happens)
    You are not quite understanding financial forecast models. They are there to provide a logic check for stakeholders to understand the various factors involved in any particular forecast outcome. Whether it is 0.4% or -0.4% is less the issue than what assumptions have been made to arrive at the one or the other.
    No, their forecasts are used in headlines in the FT etc etc and when they get it badly wrong - it looks bad. C’est tout. Not good for reputation. This isn’t a sophisticated point just a fact

    Next time they make a forecast people are more skeptical. And so on
    It is, as @OnlyLivingBoy has pointed out, different audiences. The IMF will likely have a consensus G7 country set of forecasts and move on. In less developed countries, and LDCs then they can be and/or are themselves a stakeholder and have a greater input into the forecast mechanisms especially as outcomes might determine levels of support, etc.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    NEW THREAD
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    IMF will be in tears this morning.

    I think you possibly overestimate the extent to which the IMF cares about the UK GDP data (and they'll be asleep right now in any case). I'm not sure why you are hating on the good people of 19th Street NW anyway - the IMF's forecasts of UK GDP growth this year and next are exactly in line with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.6% and +0.9% respectively.
    They definitely care about getting significant economic predictions wrong. It’s one of their main tasks. Not good for their reputation to produce laughably inaccurate prognoses (if that so happens)
    The UK isn't really an important part of their global forecast. And since their forecast for the UK is completely in line with private sector forecasts it's not like they have gone out on a limb with a bold out of consensus call. January GDP being up 0.3% rather than the 0.1% expected by the market is really not something that will create any tremors of excitement at the IMF. More broadly, their forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing economies get more attention in the market because there is less information available for those economies and the IMF itself is a significant player there. For advanced economies like the UK the market pays little attention to IMF forecasts. They get treated more seriously by the press here than they deserve, IMHO.
    But they are taken seriously - not just in the UK - and they do make headlines. See here. CNBC



    If that proves to be badly wrong it’s not good for their reputation. This isn’t really disputable

    PB does provoke some weird debates
  • RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77
    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Since the media don't seem to be reporting it much, here's a report about the Post Office Horizon scandal.

    "IT worker evidence reveals a toxic Post Office IT helpdesk that discriminated against subpostmasters
    IT worker tells public inquiry that the Post Office Horizon helpdesk was toxic, rudderless and racist"

    https://www.computerweekly.com/news/365532063/IT-worker-evidence-reveals-a-toxic-Post-Office-IT-helpdesk-that-discriminated-against-subpostmasters

    YouTube channel featuring videos of each day's hearings.

    https://www.youtube.com/@postofficehorizonitinquiry947/videos

    In the end, this Post office issue is why it is good to live in this country, problems like this get unearthed and eventually resolved.



    Judging by the interviews with various postmasters, the Post Office seemed quite capable of ruining the lives of WWC subpostmasters.

    Seriously - I have little doubt that such a stupidly, malevolent policy was carried out with racism, sexism, homophobia and about every prejudice they could find. Scum are like that.
    The deeply depressing thing about the human condition was that cruel indifference was enough. Nothing else required than an inability to care or empathise.
    The former CEO of Fujitsu is one Michael Keegan, husband of the Education Secretary and a Crown Representative in the Cabinet Office with special responsibility for managing contracts with BaE. The other company he was on the board of, Centerprise Ltd, was awarded some 17 governments contracts during 2019-20. His expertise is, according to him, in Technology, IT, Payment and Banking Services.

    Quite why someone who was in charge of a company intimately involved in and partly responsible for possibly the worst and largest miscarriage of justice in British history is in such a comfortable position when sub-postmasters are having to fight for every scrap of compensation is one to ponder.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    IMF will be in tears this morning.

    I think you possibly overestimate the extent to which the IMF cares about the UK GDP data (and they'll be asleep right now in any case). I'm not sure why you are hating on the good people of 19th Street NW anyway - the IMF's forecasts of UK GDP growth this year and next are exactly in line with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.6% and +0.9% respectively.
    They definitely care about getting significant economic predictions wrong. It’s one of their main tasks. Not good for their reputation to produce laughably inaccurate prognoses (if that so happens)
    The UK isn't really an important part of their global forecast. And since their forecast for the UK is completely in line with private sector forecasts it's not like they have gone out on a limb with a bold out of consensus call. January GDP being up 0.3% rather than the 0.1% expected by the market is really not something that will create any tremors of excitement at the IMF. More broadly, their forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing economies get more attention in the market because there is less information available for those economies and the IMF itself is a significant player there. For advanced economies like the UK the market pays little attention to IMF forecasts. They get treated more seriously by the press here than they deserve, IMHO.
    But they are taken seriously - not just in the UK - and they do make headlines. See here. CNBC



    If that proves to be badly wrong it’s not good for their reputation. This isn’t really disputable

    PB does provoke some weird debates
    I'm not disputing that their forecasts get media airplay (they get too much). I am disputing the assertion that the UK GDP forecast is a number that has a high degree of salience internally at the Fund.
  • CorrectHorseBattery3CorrectHorseBattery3 Posts: 2,757
    edited March 2023
    Deleted
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,313

    Nigelb said:

    Another good thread on intelligence estimates. The distinction between probability estimates, and confidence assessments is often ignored.

    There has been a lot of intelligence in the news recently: covid-19 origins, Havana syndrome & Nord Stream explosions. Intelligence-based claims are often eye-catching & appealing. My piece on why it's important to look closely at the confidence level.
    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1633919713087561735

    Not bothered to read it but am 99%+ sure that it will suggest that those with the most confidence are the BEST!!, especially those who can DEEM things to be TRUE, and assert the fickle minded sceptics wanting boring proof to be suitable for nothing better than accounting.
    LOL.

    The main point it makes is that reporting of intelligence findings often grossly distorts what the actual judgment was.
This discussion has been closed.