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SNP leadership – latest betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,219
edited March 2023 in General
imageSNP leadership – latest betting – politicalbetting.com

Above are the latest odds for the SNP leadership election and as can be seen this is now a two horse race between Yiusaf and Forbes.

Read the full story here

«134567…13

Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,457
    For a minute I read that as SWP and looked forward to betting on the trots.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    edited March 2023
    Not first.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,409
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    For a minute I read that as SWP and looked forward to betting on the trots.

    As opposed to the gallops, one presumes.

  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 778
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    turbotubbs said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    turbotubbs said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Some posho on R4 (calls football "soccer" - always a bad sign) trying to make out that Lineker expressing his opinion and the BBC chair getting his job after helping Johnson get a bung from a mate are somehow equivalent - let left and right both have their scalp and move on. Have we really become so tolerant of corruption and intolerant of dissent that we can accept this kind of false equivalence? Shocking.

    My uncle, a Navy man, now in his late 80’s, always used to confuse me by asking how my football was going. I don’t play football, I play rugby, I’d say. He, being a classical scholar, always referred to rugby as football and football as soccer.
    We sometimes get sniffy about football being called soccer (e.g. by the Americans) yet it’s use here has long, long roots, to differentiate from rugby football vs association football.
    Not sure what studying the classics has to do with it, as far as I am aware neither the Romans nor the ancient Greeks played either game...
    I was associating it with the great rugby playing public schools.
    Yeah sorry I was being unnecessarily obtuse. My dad went to a private school on a scholarship and has explained the whole rugby football vs association football thing to me. Since 99.9% of the population call football football and rugby rugby I think that people who cling to calling football soccer nowadays (in this country) are just trying to signal that "I am considerably posher than you". In any case, it immediately identifies them as elitist and out of touch, and proudly so, which is a useful tell.
    One could almost say the same type of people who might also have voted LD in 2019 when common people in the redwall were voting Conservative under Boris but have now switched back to voting Tory under Rishi now it can be an elitist party again.

    The only group Rishi has made a net gain from are 2019 LD voters

    Let us compare, for example, the most recent Deltapoll (fieldwork ending 6th March 2023) https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Deltapoll-230307_trackers.pdf with a Deltapoll at the start of Rishi's reign (fieldwork ending 31 October 2022) https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Deltapoll-221031_voteint.pdf.

    Voting intention now C,L,LD,G,S,R/UKIP 31,47,8,5,4,5, then 26,51,9,4,4,5. So on headline terms +5 C, -4 L (noise for the others).

    Comparing movement in 2019 votes (page 2 of the pdfs)

    C voters in 2019 now: 68% C, 19% L, 3% LD, 8% R, 2% G. Then 61% C, 28% L, 3% LD, 6% R. So the Rishi movement in 2019 conservative voters is clawring 10% back from L whilst losing some to Reform and Green.

    Not much movement in Labour voters in 2019 (less leakage to G) but still only around 2% switchers to C. So Rishi does not provide greater appeal to L 2019 voters.

    With the LD 2019 vote, a better retention now for the 2019 votes with less transfering to Labour, but more transfering to Greens.

    This is only one snapshot, and does not include don't knows which are an important factor.

    But this suggests that the main Rishi effect has been to reduce the number of C to L switchers, with little impact on the LD/C movement.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,976
    Please let it be Forbes. Someone absolutely not wanted by MPs and MSPs...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Why are people betting on Alex Salmond? That's mad isn't it? Perhaps it's Alex or Donald?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Lay Salmond. I don't think it's his year.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,457
    OT I read PB quack @franklyn's book The Man Who Turned Blue, which he plugged here the other week. Each chapter is an anecdote about an interesting patient, and just the right length for reading in the smallest room (depending on how fast you read, and what you had for breakfast, I suppose). Recommended for medical drama script writers looking for new ideas. If I had a criticism, it is that not every anecdote ends with a punchline; some just trail off.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Yousaf now has 46 SNP MSPs and MPs backing him to just 12 for Forbes. Currently he seems to have a plurality of SNP members backing him but not a majority. So if Forbes did get a shock win thanks to Regan's preferences then the SNP would have the same problem the Tories had with Truss and IDS and Labour had with Corbyn.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1633574730589515779?t=hx5if6iCvZaLQPCMeTSfRg&s=19

    A party leader backed by the party's members but not its representatives in Parliament

  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK. I can't wait to see what effect it will have on the popularity of the nationalist movement when they are not there as credible heads of government of an independent state.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Relatedly, has PB covered this startling poll? Probably you have and I was off drinking Vietnamese cocktails


    But still. Wow


    New Scottish Independence poll, Redfield & Wilton 2 - 5 Mar (changes vs 26 - 27 Nov):

    No ~ 51% (+6)
    Yes ~ 42% (-7)
    Don't Know ~ 8% (+3)

    https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1633571100582895616?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    That’s an enormous shift against Indy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    WillG said:

    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK. I can't wait to see what effect it will have on the popularity of the nationalist movement when they are not there as credible heads of government of an independent state.

    It’s bad for the Nats. See my post above
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    NickyBreakspear said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    turbotubbs said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    turbotubbs said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Some posho on R4 (calls football "soccer" - always a bad sign) trying to make out that Lineker expressing his opinion and the BBC chair getting his job after helping Johnson get a bung from a mate are somehow equivalent - let left and right both have their scalp and move on. Have we really become so tolerant of corruption and intolerant of dissent that we can accept this kind of false equivalence? Shocking.

    My uncle, a Navy man, now in his late 80’s, always used to confuse me by asking how my football was going. I don’t play football, I play rugby, I’d say. He, being a classical scholar, always referred to rugby as football and football as soccer.
    We sometimes get sniffy about football being called soccer (e.g. by the Americans) yet it’s use here has long, long roots, to differentiate from rugby football vs association football.
    Not sure what studying the classics has to do with it, as far as I am aware neither the Romans nor the ancient Greeks played either game...
    I was associating it with the great rugby playing public schools.
    Yeah sorry I was being unnecessarily obtuse. My dad went to a private school on a scholarship and has explained the whole rugby football vs association football thing to me. Since 99.9% of the population call football football and rugby rugby I think that people who cling to calling football soccer nowadays (in this country) are just trying to signal that "I am considerably posher than you". In any case, it immediately identifies them as elitist and out of touch, and proudly so, which is a useful tell.
    One could almost say the same type of people who might also have voted LD in 2019 when common people in the redwall were voting Conservative under Boris but have now switched back to voting Tory under Rishi now it can be an elitist party again.

    The only group Rishi has made a net gain from are 2019 LD voters

    Let us compare, for example, the most recent Deltapoll (fieldwork ending 6th March 2023) https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Deltapoll-230307_trackers.pdf with a Deltapoll at the start of Rishi's reign (fieldwork ending 31 October 2022) https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Deltapoll-221031_voteint.pdf.

    Voting intention now C,L,LD,G,S,R/UKIP 31,47,8,5,4,5, then 26,51,9,4,4,5. So on headline terms +5 C, -4 L (noise for the others).

    Comparing movement in 2019 votes (page 2 of the pdfs)

    C voters in 2019 now: 68% C, 19% L, 3% LD, 8% R, 2% G. Then 61% C, 28% L, 3% LD, 6% R. So the Rishi movement in 2019 conservative voters is clawring 10% back from L whilst losing some to Reform and Green.

    Not much movement in Labour voters in 2019 (less leakage to G) but still only around 2% switchers to C. So Rishi does not provide greater appeal to L 2019 voters.

    With the LD 2019 vote, a better retention now for the 2019 votes with less transfering to Labour, but more transfering to Greens.

    This is only one snapshot, and does not include don't knows which are an important factor.

    But this suggests that the main Rishi effect has been to reduce the number of C to L switchers, with little impact on the LD/C movement.

    I was talking the 2019 general election.

    The only voters Rishi has gained who did not also vote for Boris in 2019 are some LDs.

    Rishi has made a net loss to Labour since the 2019 general election compared to Boris even if he is doing better than Truss was in terms of reducing leakage to Labour

    As you say Rishi is doing worse than both Boris and Truss in terms of leaking 2019 Conservatives to RefUK
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    For a minute I read that as SWP and looked forward to betting on the trots.

    Presumably they only offer one candidate and expect a 98% vote in favour?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    edited March 2023
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    For a minute I read that as SWP and looked forward to betting on the trots.

    As opposed to the gallops, one presumes.
    I've been spending most of this week watching Cheltenham previews on Youtube, and am now ready to back almost every horse in every race.
    At least you are likely to have a winner in every race following that approach.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,067
    FPT
    I was thinking of going in @StuartDickson’s order, but after the STV debate, I am leaning towards @malcolmg’s order, However, there are another couple of weeks to decide. I will be watching them on Channel 4 at 7pm tonight and on Sky News at 8pm on Monday. I will also watch the BBC debate on Tuesday at 8pm, which I assume will be a BBC presenter’s gotcha fest 😔. Then I will decide who is the best candidate to beat Yousaf.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    There’s also a notably bad Holyrood poll for the SNP (likewise from Redfield)



    List
    SNP ~ 29% (-11)
    Lab ~ 26% (+8)
    Con ~ 20% (-3)
    LD ~ 11% (+6)
    Grn ~ 10% (+2)
    RUK ~ 1% (+1)

    Constituency
    SNP ~ 40% (-8)
    Lab ~ 29% (+7)
    Con ~ 20% (-2)
    LD ~ 7% (nc)
    Grn ~ 2% (+1)
    RUK ~ 2% (+2)

    Just 3 points ahead of Labour in the List
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,409
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Yousaf now has 46 SNP MSPs and MPs backing him to just 12 for Forbes. Currently he seems to have a plurality of SNP members backing him but not a majority. So if Forbes did get a shock win thanks to Regan's preferences then the SNP would have the same problem the Tories had with Truss and IDS and Labour had with Corbyn.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1633574730589515779?t=hx5if6iCvZaLQPCMeTSfRg&s=19

    A party leader backed by the party's members but not its representatives in Parliament

    Difference is that Ms Truss was not at all popular with the actual voters.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    WillG said:

    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK. I can't wait to see what effect it will have on the popularity of the nationalist movement when they are not there as credible heads of government of an independent state.

    Odd that support for Scottish nationalism should depend on whoever happens to be leading the SNP on a particular day. Surely the whole point is that national destiny transcends individuals.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    DougSeal said:

    Lay Salmond. I don't think it's his year.

    Yep. Completely invisible in the last hustings.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,409
    edited March 2023
    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    Lay Salmond. I don't think it's his year.

    Yep. Completely invisible in the last hustings.
    Not even a candidate! Likewise Mr Matheson.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,409
    Stark_Dawning said:

    WillG said:

    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK. I can't wait to see what effect it will have on the popularity of the nationalist movement when they are not there as credible heads of government of an independent state.

    Odd that support for Scottish nationalism should depend on whoever happens to be leading the SNP on a particular day. Surely the whole point is that national destiny transcends individuals.
    Also favoured by the Greens and a lot of Slab voters. It's foolish to equate SNP voting with Indyref voting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,285
    Leon said:

    Relatedly, has PB covered this startling poll? Probably you have and I was off drinking Vietnamese cocktails

    But still. Wow

    New Scottish Independence poll, Redfield & Wilton 2 - 5 Mar (changes vs 26 - 27 Nov):

    No ~ 51% (+6)
    Yes ~ 42% (-7)
    Don't Know ~ 8% (+3)

    https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1633571100582895616?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    That’s an enormous shift against Indy

    Large, not enormous.
    Unless the new leader is more impressive than appears the case now, it's likely to stay that way for a bit.

    But the issue isn't going to go away any time soon, if ever.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Parts of HS2 to be delayed and a record number waiting for treatment but the boats the boats !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Stark_Dawning said:

    WillG said:

    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK. I can't wait to see what effect it will have on the popularity of the nationalist movement when they are not there as credible heads of government of an independent state.

    Odd that support for Scottish nationalism should depend on whoever happens to be leading the SNP on a particular day. Surely the whole point is that national destiny transcends individuals.
    Polls show that large numbers of voters can be persuaded for or against Indy by relatively small amounts of money

    Eg if you’d be £1000 richer would you vote YES instead of NO etc etc

    For most people this issue is actually NOT fundamental. Of course we hear the vocal minority for whom it is absolutely pivotal - in both directions

    Therefore it is entirely plausible that a change of leader - from a good leader like sturgeon to someone much less impressive, will genuinely shift attitudes to Indy
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Got up this morning, looked in the mirror, got on the scales, and sadly found the jibes of the Government to be true.

    I am indeed just another Hefty Lawyer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly, has PB covered this startling poll? Probably you have and I was off drinking Vietnamese cocktails

    But still. Wow

    New Scottish Independence poll, Redfield & Wilton 2 - 5 Mar (changes vs 26 - 27 Nov):

    No ~ 51% (+6)
    Yes ~ 42% (-7)
    Don't Know ~ 8% (+3)

    https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1633571100582895616?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    That’s an enormous shift against Indy

    Large, not enormous.
    Unless the new leader is more impressive than appears the case now, it's likely to stay that way for a bit.

    But the issue isn't going to go away any time soon, if ever.
    Let’s go with “seriously large”?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    Lay Salmond. I don't think it's his year.

    Yep. Completely invisible in the last hustings.
    Not even a candidate! Likewise Mr Matheson.
    Carnyx, do you recognise the situation when there are 10,000 spoons and all you need is a knife?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    For a minute I read that as SWP and looked forward to betting on the trots.

    As opposed to the gallops, one presumes.
    I've been spending most of this week watching Cheltenham previews on Youtube, and am now ready to back almost every horse in every race.
    A solid betting strategy
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,983
    Woohoo.

    https://news.sky.com/story/harry-and-meghans-children-officially-recognised-as-prince-and-princess-by-royal-family-as-couple-say-its-their-birthright-12829353
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    SKS fans please explain

    https://twitter.com/timmyvoe/status/1633326812703932416
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,966
    Mystic Meg has died.

    Bet she didn't see that coming....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Woohoo.

    https://news.sky.com/story/harry-and-meghans-children-officially-recognised-as-prince-and-princess-by-royal-family-as-couple-say-its-their-birthright-12829353

    Gawd bless 'em, guvn'or!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,966
    bigjohnowls said:

    SKS fans please explain

    https://twitter.com/timmyvoe/status/1633326812703932416

    He lies.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045
    Why are people betting on the three non-runners listed above?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    I see UK has decided it cant afford to host Eurovision in 2024
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,695
    Benpointer said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    For a minute I read that as SWP and looked forward to betting on the trots.

    As opposed to the gallops, one presumes.
    I've been spending most of this week watching Cheltenham previews on Youtube, and am now ready to back almost every horse in every race.
    At least you are likely to have a winner in every race following that approach.
    When the national lottery started a friend of mine thought that they had discovered a foolproof way to win. She would just buy a ticket with number 1-6, one with 7-12 etc.

    It had to be pointed out that winning numbers usually had to be on the same ticket...

    Incidentally some people think 1,2,3,4,5,6 would never come up - its as possible as any other combination of numbers, but the pay-off may not be what you expect - lots of people apparently choose those numbers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited March 2023
    OT. Fascinating case against Fox News for telling lies about the "stolen' election

    https://www.npr.org/2023/03/06/1161221798/if-fox-news-loses-defamation-dominion-media
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,516
    FPT
    malcolmg said:

    » show previous quotes
    Hopefully 2.1.3. As long as Uselesss is last I will be happy but think Regan is best bet, she seems to have a bit of get up and go and does not appear to want to be the Messiah.

    I was thinking of going in @StuartDickson’s order, but after the STV debate, I am leaning towards @malcolmg’s order, However, there are another couple of weeks to decide. I will be watching them on Channel 4 at 7pm tonight and on Sky News at 8pm on Monday. I will also watch the BBC debate on Tuesday at 8pm, which I assume will be a BBC presenter’s gotcha fest 😔. Then I will decide who is the best candidate to beat Yousaf.
    airlie, BBC is certain to be biased and garbage, they will be pushing unionist viewpoint for sure.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    edited March 2023
    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    SKS fans please explain

    https://twitter.com/timmyvoe/status/1633326812703932416

    He lies.
    We have a winner but as you are nor an SKS fan you are not eligible to enter although i reserve the right to change my mind
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I'm sorry to report he's talking about 'woke' again not his skin colour.
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 778
    HYUFD said:

    NickyBreakspear said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    turbotubbs said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    turbotubbs said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Some posho on R4 (calls football "soccer" - always a bad sign) trying to make out that Lineker expressing his opinion and the BBC chair getting his job after helping Johnson get a bung from a mate are somehow equivalent - let left and right both have their scalp and move on. Have we really become so tolerant of corruption and intolerant of dissent that we can accept this kind of false equivalence? Shocking.

    My uncle, a Navy man, now in his late 80’s, always used to confuse me by asking how my football was going. I don’t play football, I play rugby, I’d say. He, being a classical scholar, always referred to rugby as football and football as soccer.
    We sometimes get sniffy about football being called soccer (e.g. by the Americans) yet it’s use here has long, long roots, to differentiate from rugby football vs association football.
    Not sure what studying the classics has to do with it, as far as I am aware neither the Romans nor the ancient Greeks played either game...
    I was associating it with the great rugby playing public schools.
    Yeah sorry I was being unnecessarily obtuse. My dad went to a private school on a scholarship and has explained the whole rugby football vs association football thing to me. Since 99.9% of the population call football football and rugby rugby I think that people who cling to calling football soccer nowadays (in this country) are just trying to signal that "I am considerably posher than you". In any case, it immediately identifies them as elitist and out of touch, and proudly so, which is a useful tell.
    One could almost say the same type of people who might also have voted LD in 2019 when common people in the redwall were voting Conservative under Boris but have now switched back to voting Tory under Rishi now it can be an elitist party again.

    The only group Rishi has made a net gain from are 2019 LD voters

    Let us compare, for example, the most recent Deltapoll (fieldwork ending 6th March 2023) https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Deltapoll-230307_trackers.pdf with a Deltapoll at the start of Rishi's reign (fieldwork ending 31 October 2022) https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Deltapoll-221031_voteint.pdf.

    Voting intention now C,L,LD,G,S,R/UKIP 31,47,8,5,4,5, then 26,51,9,4,4,5. So on headline terms +5 C, -4 L (noise for the others).

    Comparing movement in 2019 votes (page 2 of the pdfs)

    C voters in 2019 now: 68% C, 19% L, 3% LD, 8% R, 2% G. Then 61% C, 28% L, 3% LD, 6% R. So the Rishi movement in 2019 conservative voters is clawring 10% back from L whilst losing some to Reform and Green.

    Not much movement in Labour voters in 2019 (less leakage to G) but still only around 2% switchers to C. So Rishi does not provide greater appeal to L 2019 voters.

    With the LD 2019 vote, a better retention now for the 2019 votes with less transfering to Labour, but more transfering to Greens.

    This is only one snapshot, and does not include don't knows which are an important factor.

    But this suggests that the main Rishi effect has been to reduce the number of C to L switchers, with little impact on the LD/C movement.

    I was talking the 2019 general election.

    The only voters Rishi has gained who did not also vote for Boris in 2019 are some LDs.

    Rishi has made a net loss to Labour since the 2019 general election compared to Boris even if he is doing better than Truss was in terms of reducing leakage to Labour

    As you say Rishi is doing worse than both Boris and Truss in terms of leaking 2019 Conservatives to RefUK
    In complete contrast, if you look at the equivalent polls from Redfield & Wilton, the Conservative poling has got worse down 3% from 27% to 24% with the leakage going to Reform.

    In the detail of the data tables, https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GB-Voting-Intention-30.10.2022.xlsx and https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GB-Voting-Intention-05.03.2023.xlsx which helpfully show the detail of the don't knows, the major change in the 2019 Conservative votes has been a movement from don't knows to Reform.
    Hardly any movement in the 2019 Labour voters, whilst for the 2019 Lib Dem voters there is now a reduced number of Conservative switchers (1% from 5%) and the LD to Green switchers in October have moved to Don't know (impact of the Climate Summit in October 2022?).

    So the conclusion is that more research is required, as the detail from Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton is not consistent.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,695
    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    Do you think Sunak is alienating white people in the rest of the country?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    SKS fans please explain

    https://twitter.com/timmyvoe/status/1633326812703932416

    He lies.
    ... to save us all.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,409
    edited March 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    Lay Salmond. I don't think it's his year.

    Yep. Completely invisible in the last hustings.
    Not even a candidate! Likewise Mr Matheson.
    Carnyx, do you recognise the situation when there are 10,000 spoons and all you need is a knife?
    That is a betting market. So betting on Mr S is as useful a betting strategy as you remarked @DecrepiterJohnL 's to be on the gee-gees.

    Unless they are leftovers from bets placed before the nominations opened and, still more, closed? But you'd expect others to be there too - Mr Robertson, Ms Cherry and so on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I am specifically referring to this notorious video where Yousaf spits out the word “white” like it is a swear word

    https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1632466437536088064?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This video will be trotted out again and again if he wins. It’s not a great look for him
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,695
    nico679 said:

    Parts of HS2 to be delayed and a record number waiting for treatment but the boats the boats !

    The record number waiting to be treated is slightly unfair, as a lot of that is down to the pandemic.*

    *And the underfunding of the NHS...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,966
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly, has PB covered this startling poll? Probably you have and I was off drinking Vietnamese cocktails

    But still. Wow

    New Scottish Independence poll, Redfield & Wilton 2 - 5 Mar (changes vs 26 - 27 Nov):

    No ~ 51% (+6)
    Yes ~ 42% (-7)
    Don't Know ~ 8% (+3)

    https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1633571100582895616?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    That’s an enormous shift against Indy

    Large, not enormous.
    Unless the new leader is more impressive than appears the case now, it's likely to stay that way for a bit.

    But the issue isn't going to go away any time soon, if ever.
    "The issue" of independence might not go away.

    Any realistic prospect of its delivery will though.

    Devo Maximus will be the best Scotland can get for several decades. That is where Scottish politics will move towards, with SNP and Alba fighting it out in a rather small sack.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited March 2023
    FPT. Burgessian said: "Interesting point. However surely Kate burnt her bridges with too many folk last night? Including the Murrells."

    Kate Forbes burnt her bridges with the current leadership and their elected supporters the minute she announced she was standing in the leadership contest, and they had their attack lines ready in the hope of holing her campaign below the waterline before the nominations even closed. And so while her tactics at the STV hustings might be seen as very risky when she is trying to woo the SNP membership, those watching also saw that the attack lines from Opposition parties were almost going to write themselves because of Humza Yousaf's poor performance in the key Ministerial briefs of Transport, Justice and Health. And all this at a time when the incoming FM's domestic tray is piling up and over flowing with scandals and bad headlines left by their precedessor Nicola Sturgeon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Leon said:

    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible

    I'm not sure that's going to beat Keen's cheddar with Mrs P's plum chutney on Reeve's sourdough tbh.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Leon said:

    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible

    The best sandwiches in the world are (or were) at Bedales Wine Bar in Leadenhall Market.

    Fantastic with a nice bottle of sauv and I'm a burgundy kind of guy.

    But (for us in the UK) a bit early for a PB culinary diversion.

    How will it play in Kircudbright?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    Lay Salmond. I don't think it's his year.

    Yep. Completely invisible in the last hustings.
    Not even a candidate! Likewise Mr Matheson.
    Carnyx, do you recognise the situation when there are 10,000 spoons and all you need is a knife?
    Tim Martin has opened a lot of pubs hasn't he
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,695
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible

    I'm not sure that's going to beat Keen's cheddar with Mrs P's plum chutney on Reeve's sourdough tbh.
    Ah - Reeves! Superb bakery, far better than the ghastly Greggs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    WillG said:

    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK.

    By what measure?

    Their single signature policy (breaking up the UK) is no closer now than it ever was.

    In terms of delivery of public services, their record is shite.

    They made a lot of noise, they have millions of undying fans, but they didn't achieve anything of note (except failure).

    On that metric, Corbyn is more capable than either of them
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I am specifically referring to this notorious video where Yousaf spits out the word “white” like it is a swear word

    https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1632466437536088064?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This video will be trotted out again and again if he wins. It’s not a great look for him
    It's not a great look for the Scottish establishment either.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    kinabalu said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I'm sorry to report he's talking about 'woke' again not his skin colour.
    No, I’m talking about the infamous video - which I just linked - where Yousaf rants about there being too many WHITE people in office in Scotland, apparently unaware that Scotland is 98% white

    Sorry, I mean 98% WHITE
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,169
    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    Lay Salmond. I don't think it's his year.

    Yep. Completely invisible in the last hustings.
    I think I sensed his ghostly presence hovering above Ms Regan.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    turbotubbs said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible

    I'm not sure that's going to beat Keen's cheddar with Mrs P's plum chutney on Reeve's sourdough tbh.
    Ah - Reeves! Superb bakery, .
    I thought she had piled on the pounds
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    MarqueeMark said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly, has PB covered this startling poll? Probably you have and I was off drinking Vietnamese cocktails

    But still. Wow

    New Scottish Independence poll, Redfield & Wilton 2 - 5 Mar (changes vs 26 - 27 Nov):

    No ~ 51% (+6)
    Yes ~ 42% (-7)
    Don't Know ~ 8% (+3)

    https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1633571100582895616?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    That’s an enormous shift against Indy

    Large, not enormous.
    Unless the new leader is more impressive than appears the case now, it's likely to stay that way for a bit.

    But the issue isn't going to go away any time soon, if ever.
    "The issue" of independence might not go away.

    Any realistic prospect of its delivery will though.

    Devo Maximus will be the best Scotland can get for several decades. That is where Scottish politics will move towards, with SNP and Alba fighting it out in a rather small sack.
    I predict it will become like Quebec. The issue certainly will not go away but the day of Indy will never arrive. Too much hassle
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I'm sorry to report he's talking about 'woke' again not his skin colour.
    No, I’m talking about the infamous video - which I just linked - where Yousaf rants about there being too many WHITE people in office in Scotland, apparently unaware that Scotland is 98% white

    Sorry, I mean 98% WHITE
    96% white according to Wiki

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,516
    Stark_Dawning said:

    WillG said:

    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK. I can't wait to see what effect it will have on the popularity of the nationalist movement when they are not there as credible heads of government of an independent state.

    Odd that support for Scottish nationalism should depend on whoever happens to be leading the SNP on a particular day. Surely the whole point is that national destiny transcends individuals.
    Glad someone spotted the flaw that the frothers on here do not ever seem to grasp
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,169
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Woohoo.

    https://news.sky.com/story/harry-and-meghans-children-officially-recognised-as-prince-and-princess-by-royal-family-as-couple-say-its-their-birthright-12829353

    May make them feel a bit better about the divorce I guess.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    Leon said:

    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible

    My first wife was Indian and her mother used to make Jalfrezi for lunch on Sundays. I'd often rock up later and she'd make me a sandwich out of the leftovers. THAT was the best sandwich ever and it's not a debate. Without a shadow of a doubt it was.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,285
    Leon said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    WillG said:

    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK. I can't wait to see what effect it will have on the popularity of the nationalist movement when they are not there as credible heads of government of an independent state.

    Odd that support for Scottish nationalism should depend on whoever happens to be leading the SNP on a particular day. Surely the whole point is that national destiny transcends individuals.
    Polls show that large numbers of voters can be persuaded for or against Indy by relatively small amounts of money

    Eg if you’d be £1000 richer would you vote YES instead of NO etc etc

    For most people this issue is actually NOT fundamental. Of course we hear the vocal minority for whom it is absolutely pivotal - in both directions

    Therefore it is entirely plausible that a change of leader - from a good leader like sturgeon to someone much less impressive, will genuinely shift attitudes to Indy
    A lot like Brexit, then.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    edited March 2023
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I'm sorry to report he's talking about 'woke' again not his skin colour.
    No, I’m talking about the infamous video - which I just linked - where Yousaf rants about there being too many WHITE people in office in Scotland, apparently unaware that Scotland is 98% white

    Sorry, I mean 98% WHITE
    96% white according to Wiki

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland
    WHITE please. Not “white”. And you have to say it with venom, like you are actually saying TWAT
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I am specifically referring to this notorious video where Yousaf spits out the word “white” like it is a swear word

    https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1632466437536088064?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This video will be trotted out again and again if he wins. It’s not a great look for him
    Yousaf is a weegie, everything he says sounds like a swear word.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    Lay Salmond. I don't think it's his year.

    Yep. Completely invisible in the last hustings.
    Not even a candidate! Likewise Mr Matheson.
    Carnyx, do you recognise the situation when there are 10,000 spoons and all you need is a knife?
    That is a betting market. So betting on Mr S is as useful a betting strategy as you remarked @DecrepiterJohnL 's to be on the gee-gees.

    Unless they are leftovers from bets placed before the nominations opened and, still more, closed? But you'd expect others to be there too - Mr Robertson, Ms Cherry and so on.
    I appreciate that this is Pedantic Betting but it was a joke...a snide comment on the absurdity of his even being in the list...on a site full of people reasonably knowledgeable about politics I assumed that everyone would be aware he's not even a member of the SNP anymore, let alone a leadership candidate, being the leader of a another party and all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,966
    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    SKS fans please explain

    https://twitter.com/timmyvoe/status/1633326812703932416

    He lies.
    We have a winner but as you are nor an SKS fan you are not eligible to enter although i reserve the right to change my mind
    Must be tough on all those thinking that Starmer was the Second Coming, here to replace the Lying Johnson....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,797
    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    SKS fans please explain

    https://twitter.com/timmyvoe/status/1633326812703932416

    He lies.
    We have a winner but as you are nor an SKS fan you are not eligible to enter although i reserve the right to change my mind
    Must be tough on all those thinking that Starmer was the Second Coming, here to replace the Lying Johnson....
    I hate to think of how many times Johnson has come when lying.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    edited March 2023
    Is there a term for somebody who is not a racist, no not at all, but deeply obsessed with race?

    Just asking.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    BBC News (UK)
    @BBCNews
    ·
    18h
    Woman jailed for killing and eating pet hamster
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    SKS fans please explain

    https://twitter.com/timmyvoe/status/1633326812703932416

    He lies.
    We have a winner but as you are nor an SKS fan you are not eligible to enter although i reserve the right to change my mind
    Must be tough on all those thinking that Starmer was the Second Coming, here to replace the Lying Johnson....
    No. He's the Second Coming here to replace the lying Truss Sunak
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I'm sorry to report he's talking about 'woke' again not his skin colour.
    No, I’m talking about the infamous video - which I just linked - where Yousaf rants about there being too many WHITE people in office in Scotland, apparently unaware that Scotland is 98% white

    Sorry, I mean 98% WHITE
    Er that's a 'Yes' then. As I said you're not talking about his skin colour you're talking about his 'wokery'.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,797
    bigjohnowls said:

    BBC News (UK)
    @BBCNews
    ·
    18h
    Woman jailed for killing and eating pet hamster

    What's the link to Starmer?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478
    I'm of the view that Labour will make significant progress in Scotland at GE 2024, for two reasons.

    Firstly, the departure of Sturgeon and the difficulty the SNP are having in finding a replacement that can keep the Party united.

    Secondly, and equally importantly, the likelihood of a Labour-led UK government after the next GE, which was a remote prospect until around a year ago. If I lived in Scotland and had to choose between the SNP and a Tory UK government, I'd plump for the former. However, the more likely it is that the UK government is Labour led, the more likely I'd be to switch from SNP to Labour, putting independence on the backburner for now. I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of progressive, left-wing Scottish voters think similarly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,169
    edited March 2023
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I am specifically referring to this notorious video where Yousaf spits out the word “white” like it is a swear word

    https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1632466437536088064?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This video will be trotted out again and again if he wins. It’s not a great look for him
    Yousaf is a weegie, everything he says sounds like a swear word.
    Pretendy weegie, for the true weegie most of yer f*cking, c***ing, arsehole vocabulary should be actual swear words.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible

    The best sandwiches in the world are (or were) at Bedales Wine Bar in Leadenhall Market.

    Fantastic with a nice bottle of sauv and I'm a burgundy kind of guy.

    But (for us in the UK) a bit early for a PB culinary diversion.

    How will it play in Kircudbright?
    Is it a cheese and ham sandwich? A really good cheese and ham sandwich on proper sourdough is hard to beat. Especially with a nice glass of dryish red wine, as you suggest

    But honestly. That bahn mi today. It’s unearthly. The French bread alone is sensational

    They sell so many the bread is nearly always warm from the oven next door - they produce thousands every day. It has that perfect soft yet crusty mmmness

    Fuck knows what’s in it. Genius
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,285
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible

    The best sandwiches in the world are (or were) at Bedales Wine Bar in Leadenhall Market.

    Fantastic with a nice bottle of sauv and I'm a burgundy kind of guy.

    But (for us in the UK) a bit early for a PB culinary diversion.

    How will it play in Kircudbright?
    Is it a cheese and ham sandwich? A really good cheese and ham sandwich on proper sourdough is hard to beat. Especially with a nice glass of dryish red wine, as you suggest

    But honestly. That bahn mi today. It’s unearthly. The French bread alone is sensational

    They sell so many the bread is nearly always warm from the oven next door - they produce thousands every day. It has that perfect soft yet crusty mmmness

    Fuck knows what’s in it. Genius
    Coriander, apparently.
    Not for me.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,516
    Leon said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    WillG said:

    I am fascinated how this will turn out. Salmond and Sturgeon, regardless of their flaws and my personal disagreements with them, have probably been the two most capable politicians of the last 15 years in the UK. I can't wait to see what effect it will have on the popularity of the nationalist movement when they are not there as credible heads of government of an independent state.

    Odd that support for Scottish nationalism should depend on whoever happens to be leading the SNP on a particular day. Surely the whole point is that national destiny transcends individuals.
    Polls show that large numbers of voters can be persuaded for or against Indy by relatively small amounts of money

    Eg if you’d be £1000 richer would you vote YES instead of NO etc etc

    For most people this issue is actually NOT fundamental. Of course we hear the vocal minority for whom it is absolutely pivotal - in both directions

    Therefore it is entirely plausible that a change of leader - from a good leader like sturgeon to someone much less impressive, will genuinely shift attitudes to Indy
    You are sadly mistaken, Sturgeon was a very poor leader. Obsessed with her being the only power and happy to ruin anybody that did not grovel at her feet. She has left the country in a dire state, went backwards on independence so she could remain the big shot, stuffed the economy with her cabinet of nodding donkeys implementing hideously ruinous policies and followed disasterous GRR that everybody told her was a car crash. SNP leadership team is now full of nodding seat warming Sturgeon worshippers who would struggle to run a bath.
    Now they are trying to rig who her successor will be by promoting Humza Useless who has failed and wrecked every department he has run. They ahve teh full party behind him and control the voting. Very banana republic and suits Westminster just fine.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    DougSeal said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BBC News (UK)
    @BBCNews
    ·
    18h
    Woman jailed for killing and eating pet hamster

    SKS fans please explain.
    You are obsessed with SKS mate!!!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478
    DougSeal said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BBC News (UK)
    @BBCNews
    ·
    18h
    Woman jailed for killing and eating pet hamster

    SKS fans please explain.
    Hamster is very nearly an anagram of Starmer, so he's obviously responsible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,966
    Leon said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly, has PB covered this startling poll? Probably you have and I was off drinking Vietnamese cocktails

    But still. Wow

    New Scottish Independence poll, Redfield & Wilton 2 - 5 Mar (changes vs 26 - 27 Nov):

    No ~ 51% (+6)
    Yes ~ 42% (-7)
    Don't Know ~ 8% (+3)

    https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1633571100582895616?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    That’s an enormous shift against Indy

    Large, not enormous.
    Unless the new leader is more impressive than appears the case now, it's likely to stay that way for a bit.

    But the issue isn't going to go away any time soon, if ever.
    "The issue" of independence might not go away.

    Any realistic prospect of its delivery will though.

    Devo Maximus will be the best Scotland can get for several decades. That is where Scottish politics will move towards, with SNP and Alba fighting it out in a rather small sack.
    I predict it will become like Quebec. The issue certainly will not go away but the day of Indy will never arrive. Too much hassle
    And the word "Indy" will be pronounced with just the hint of a giggle....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,516
    Theuniondivvie said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I am specifically referring to this notorious video where Yousaf spits out the word “white” like it is a swear word

    https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1632466437536088064?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This video will be trotted out again and again if he wins. It’s not a great look for him
    Yousaf is a weegie, everything he says sounds like a swear word.
    Pretendy weegie, for the true weegie most of yer f*cking, c***ing, arsehole vocabulary should be actual swear words.
    He is as fake as a three bob bit
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,285
    The Minister of Defense of Slovakia stated that Poland has agreed to the joint transfer of MiG-29 to Ukraine and it is time for the Slovak government to make a decision on this issue.
    https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1633777296854138880

    “We will never use MiGs again. They have no real value for us. If we give them to Ukraine, they can help save lives,” Slovakian Defense Minister
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I am specifically referring to this notorious video where Yousaf spits out the word “white” like it is a swear word

    https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1632466437536088064?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This video will be trotted out again and again if he wins. It’s not a great look for him
    It's not a great look for the Scottish establishment either.
    what that a country which is 96% white has nearly all the establishment being white as well?
    sure?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,470
    ydoethur said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BBC News (UK)
    @BBCNews
    ·
    18h
    Woman jailed for killing and eating pet hamster

    What's the link to Starmer?
    Freddie Starr was alleged to have eaten someone's hamster.

    One of the greatest tabloid headlines ever.

    And Starr sounds a bit like Starmer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,797
    Stuartinromford said:

    ydoethur said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    BBC News (UK)
    @BBCNews
    ·
    18h
    Woman jailed for killing and eating pet hamster

    What's the link to Starmer?
    Freddie Starr was alleged to have eaten someone's hamster.

    One of the greatest tabloid headlines ever.

    And Starr sounds a bit like Starmer.
    Ken Starr do better?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    edited March 2023
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    For lunch today I had a sandwich. But it wasn’t just any old sandwich. The sandwich I had has been claimed by some to be “the best sandwich in the world”

    Not just “tasty”. Or “really nice sarnie”. Or “a damn good sandwich if you’re in the area”

    No. The actual BEST SANDWICH IN THE WORLD

    It was the mixed bahn mi from here. Bahn Mi Phuong, Hoi An

    https://hiddenhoian.com/eat/banh-mi-phuong-hoi-ans-best-banh-mi/

    Anthony Bourdain is just one person who has named it the best sandwich on the planet

    http://hiddenlandtravel.com/hoi-banh-mi-the-worlds-best-sandwich/

    And you know what? They might be right. It is incredible

    The best sandwiches in the world are (or were) at Bedales Wine Bar in Leadenhall Market.

    Fantastic with a nice bottle of sauv and I'm a burgundy kind of guy.

    But (for us in the UK) a bit early for a PB culinary diversion.

    How will it play in Kircudbright?
    Is it a cheese and ham sandwich? A really good cheese and ham sandwich on proper sourdough is hard to beat. Especially with a nice glass of dryish red wine, as you suggest

    But honestly. That bahn mi today. It’s unearthly. The French bread alone is sensational

    They sell so many the bread is nearly always warm from the oven next door - they produce thousands every day. It has that perfect soft yet crusty mmmness

    Fuck knows what’s in it. Genius
    Who hasn't gone to an (artisanal) bakery and walked out with far too many loaves for a, max, one slice a day bread habit just because the bread looks so amazing.

    What is it about bread that it looks so must haveable.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,516
    Northern_Al said:

    I'm of the view that Labour will make significant progress in Scotland at GE 2024, for two reasons.

    Firstly, the departure of Sturgeon and the difficulty the SNP are having in finding a replacement that can keep the Party united.

    Secondly, and equally importantly, the likelihood of a Labour-led UK government after the next GE, which was a remote prospect until around a year ago. If I lived in Scotland and had to choose between the SNP and a Tory UK government, I'd plump for the former. However, the more likely it is that the UK government is Labour led, the more likely I'd be to switch from SNP to Labour, putting independence on the backburner for now. I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of progressive, left-wing Scottish voters think similarly.

    Only thickos will vote English Labour in Scotland. WE had 40 years of shafting and grifting from them so it would only be cretins who would vote for them.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,948
    I see @squareroot2 is gloating on the last thread that Gary Lineker may well be on his way out of the BBC and from reports earlier this morning that seemed quite likely.

    Nothing to be proud of though.

    Censoring people like Lineker and Clarkson (although Clarkson left for other reasons, but the axe was always over his head for the comments he made) just means the BBC loses great talent. Within reason (and there are some obvious limits) they should be able to comment on what they like when they like provided it is not within their BBC remit.

    Where are we going to draw the line on comments anybody on TV says in their own time that we may not like? What the hell has it got to do with @squareroot2 what these people say in their own time? Mind your own business. We should not be censoring free speech. He has as much right as you or me to post on twitter about stuff provided he is not using a BBC forum to do so.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Slackbladder said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    There are no good options for the Nats from here. Regan has no chance and she’s mad. Yousaf will alienate moderate/right voters and WHITE PEOPLE

    Forbes (surely the best candidate overall) will alienate her own activists and MPs and the Wokerati

    I can foresee a split - especially as Indy drifts into the far distance and the Indy-now fundamentalists peel away in anger

    There are no doubt some 'WHITE PEOPLE' who will be alienated by Yousaf but very few surely?

    How much of an effect in that way do you think Sunak has? Not much at all would be my hopeful guess.
    I am specifically referring to this notorious video where Yousaf spits out the word “white” like it is a swear word

    https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1632466437536088064?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This video will be trotted out again and again if he wins. It’s not a great look for him
    It's not a great look for the Scottish establishment either.
    what that a country which is 96% white has nearly all the establishment being white as well?
    sure?
    Amended to highlight the point Yousaf (rightly or wrongly) was making.

    If he was right, it's not a good look for Scotland.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    On topic -They’ve got themselves into a catch 22.

    They will either choose Forbes who will have significant difficulties in trying to assert her authority given how key figures in the party have gone for her over the religion stuff.

    Or they will choose Yousaf who to put it charitably can only really be seen as failing upwards.

    SKS is lucky general example no. 384.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,797
    malcolmg said:

    Northern_Al said:

    I'm of the view that Labour will make significant progress in Scotland at GE 2024, for two reasons.

    Firstly, the departure of Sturgeon and the difficulty the SNP are having in finding a replacement that can keep the Party united.

    Secondly, and equally importantly, the likelihood of a Labour-led UK government after the next GE, which was a remote prospect until around a year ago. If I lived in Scotland and had to choose between the SNP and a Tory UK government, I'd plump for the former. However, the more likely it is that the UK government is Labour led, the more likely I'd be to switch from SNP to Labour, putting independence on the backburner for now. I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of progressive, left-wing Scottish voters think similarly.

    Only thickos will vote English Labour in Scotland. WE had 40 years of shafting and grifting from them so it would only be cretins who would vote for them.
    I would have said, given they won't be standing, anyone who votes for English Labour in Scotland has managed something exceptionally clever.
This discussion has been closed.