Some talk the Ukrainians have conducted a successful counter-attack north of Bakhmut and that they have encircled Russian forces. Fingers crossed.
At least one of the videos that has been posted claiming to be recent reinforcements for Bakhmut is from last autumn, on the basis of the vegetation visible.
I'm fairly certain that if the Ukrainians were going to make a counteroffensive in an attempt to hold Bakhmut, they wouldn't have left it so late. But a bit of misinformation to cover a retreat - that's quite possible.
Denis Davydov was talking about bursting one of the dams to cut off the Russia troops. Whatever the droughts elsewhere in Europe they don't seem short of water in Ukraine.
Isn't the point about Bakhmut that it is of little military significance? I believe the Russians want it just so they can claim a victory somewhere, but it doesn't really help their war aims.
Rather reminds me of Tobruk, where my old man was wounded. It made no sense to try and hold it, but Churchill insisted. Hmmmm......
Tobruk actually made some sense. Rommel was fighting at the end of a madly long supply chain. Capturing a port to shorten it was a massive thing for him.
Not sure about that, M.
My understanding is that by taking Tobruk he forced the 8th Army to do what it should have done in the first place - retreat to Alexandria and extend German supply lines further. I don't think Tobruk was much use to the Germans as a port because the allies controlled the Med for the most part.
Auchinleck wasn't keen, but ceded to Churchill's insistence that Tobruk should be defended. The Auch was right, but wasn't prepared to lose his job over it.
It’s one of those things that has been debated back and forth.
Churchill knew of Rommel’s supply woes due to Ultra.
Malta and the submarines was critical for making Tobruk a fail as a port for the Axis, remember.
And that was a good part of why the Germans and Italians threw so much at Malta. So if Malta fell…
Some talk the Ukrainians have conducted a successful counter-attack north of Bakhmut and that they have encircled Russian forces. Fingers crossed.
At least one of the videos that has been posted claiming to be recent reinforcements for Bakhmut is from last autumn, on the basis of the vegetation visible.
I'm fairly certain that if the Ukrainians were going to make a counteroffensive in an attempt to hold Bakhmut, they wouldn't have left it so late. But a bit of misinformation to cover a retreat - that's quite possible.
Denis Davydov was talking about bursting one of the dams to cut off the Russia troops. Whatever the droughts elsewhere in Europe they don't seem short of water in Ukraine.
Isn't the point about Bakhmut that it is of little military significance? I believe the Russians want it just so they can claim a victory somewhere, but it doesn't really help their war aims.
Rather reminds me of Tobruk, where my old man was wounded. It made no sense to try and hold it, but Churchill insisted. Hmmmm......
Yeah it's a small town with a salt mine. However it may have become important to the internal politics of the Kremlin, Wagner vs Russian army etc.
It seems a bit difficult to discern quite what is going on there, but doesn't seem as if UKR is retreating. They must be confident that they can hold it, or at least that they are not yet feeling encircled.
Some talk the Ukrainians have conducted a successful counter-attack north of Bakhmut and that they have encircled Russian forces. Fingers crossed.
At least one of the videos that has been posted claiming to be recent reinforcements for Bakhmut is from last autumn, on the basis of the vegetation visible.
I'm fairly certain that if the Ukrainians were going to make a counteroffensive in an attempt to hold Bakhmut, they wouldn't have left it so late. But a bit of misinformation to cover a retreat - that's quite possible.
Denis Davydov was talking about bursting one of the dams to cut off the Russia troops. Whatever the droughts elsewhere in Europe they don't seem short of water in Ukraine.
Isn't the point about Bakhmut that it is of little military significance? I believe the Russians want it just so they can claim a victory somewhere, but it doesn't really help their war aims.
Rather reminds me of Tobruk, where my old man was wounded. It made no sense to try and hold it, but Churchill insisted. Hmmmm......
Yeah it's a small town with a salt mine. However it may have become important to the internal politics of the Kremlin, Wagner vs Russian army etc.
It’s certainly turned into a mini-Verdun for the Russians. Not sure the effect of the Ukrainian defenders.
Famous Brits who used the title Doctor outside a medical context, I think.
David Owen?
He is a medical Doctor, neurology I believe.
It was said that when Foreign Secretary, Dr Owen would be debriefed by MI6 about the health of whichever foreign leaders he had shaken hands with on his travels.
Some talk the Ukrainians have conducted a successful counter-attack north of Bakhmut and that they have encircled Russian forces. Fingers crossed.
At least one of the videos that has been posted claiming to be recent reinforcements for Bakhmut is from last autumn, on the basis of the vegetation visible.
I'm fairly certain that if the Ukrainians were going to make a counteroffensive in an attempt to hold Bakhmut, they wouldn't have left it so late. But a bit of misinformation to cover a retreat - that's quite possible.
Denis Davydov was talking about bursting one of the dams to cut off the Russia troops. Whatever the droughts elsewhere in Europe they don't seem short of water in Ukraine.
Isn't the point about Bakhmut that it is of little military significance? I believe the Russians want it just so they can claim a victory somewhere, but it doesn't really help their war aims.
Rather reminds me of Tobruk, where my old man was wounded. It made no sense to try and hold it, but Churchill insisted. Hmmmm......
Tobruk actually made some sense. Rommel was fighting at the end of a madly long supply chain. Capturing a port to shorten it was a massive thing for him.
Not sure about that, M.
My understanding is that by taking Tobruk he forced the 8th Army to do what it should have done in the first place - retreat to Alexandria and extend German supply lines further. I don't think Tobruk was much use to the Germans as a port because the allies controlled the Med for the most part.
Auchinleck wasn't keen, but ceded to Churchill's insistence that Tobruk should be defended. The Auch was right, but wasn't prepared to lose his job over it.
It’s one of those things that has been debated back and forth.
Churchill knew of Rommel’s supply woes due to Ultra.
Malta and the submarines was critical for making Tobruk a fail as a port for the Axis, remember.
And that was a good part of why the Germans and Italians threw so much at Malta. So if Malta fell…
Thanks M.
I'm writing a book based on Dad's war letters and I need to research this subject a bit more. Your comments help. I don't want to just buy the conventional wisdom.
Forbes just gone favourite on Betfair in last 30 mins.
Quite significant move - may imply new polling?
A number of heads on here will explode if she wins.
As a Labour supporter some bible basher turning off the SNPs core support can only be good news .
Hmm. You need to think about the competition. Greens on the left already, Tories on the right, and SNP moving closer to Labour? Rremember muich of the Labour vote is pro-indy, and if the SNP moves right to overlap with Labour, and SKS retains his Brexiter right wing shtick to appeal in England, things get very badly squashed like an accident in a fruit lorry.
Forbes would move the SNP so far right it overtakes Sunak to meet Jacob Rees Mogg on the Tory right, never mind just overlapping Starmer Labour
Pretty sure there is some nylon in the wool mix for JRM’s suits. So he’s a wearer of mixed cloth.
On topic, I'm perfectly happy to "accidentally forget" my voter ID and debate the toss for a short time to help snarl up a little my little corner of the local elections, hopefully to help see the back of this wretched, stacked system before GE chaos we ensues.
I'm aware there are laws governing behaviour in polling stations, and I have responsibilities that limit how far I'd personally push it, but I wonder if anyone of like mind might consider their own circumstances in relation to this.
On topic, I'm perfectly happy to "accidentally forget" my voter ID and debate the toss for a short time to help snarl up a little my little corner of the local elections, hopefully to help see the back of this wretched, stacked system before GE chaos we ensues.
I'm aware there are laws governing behaviour in polling stations, and I have responsibilities that limit how far I'd personally push it, but I wonder if anyone of like mind might consider their own circumstances in relation to this.
Stirrer!
I'm tempted myself, but on reflection I think the officials at Polling Stations have enough on their hands without having to deal with deliberate troublemakers like you and me.
Some talk the Ukrainians have conducted a successful counter-attack north of Bakhmut and that they have encircled Russian forces. Fingers crossed.
At least one of the videos that has been posted claiming to be recent reinforcements for Bakhmut is from last autumn, on the basis of the vegetation visible.
I'm fairly certain that if the Ukrainians were going to make a counteroffensive in an attempt to hold Bakhmut, they wouldn't have left it so late. But a bit of misinformation to cover a retreat - that's quite possible.
Denis Davydov was talking about bursting one of the dams to cut off the Russia troops. Whatever the droughts elsewhere in Europe they don't seem short of water in Ukraine.
Isn't the point about Bakhmut that it is of little military significance? I believe the Russians want it just so they can claim a victory somewhere, but it doesn't really help their war aims.
Rather reminds me of Tobruk, where my old man was wounded. It made no sense to try and hold it, but Churchill insisted. Hmmmm......
Tobruk actually made some sense. Rommel was fighting at the end of a madly long supply chain. Capturing a port to shorten it was a massive thing for him.
Not sure about that, M.
My understanding is that by taking Tobruk he forced the 8th Army to do what it should have done in the first place - retreat to Alexandria and extend German supply lines further. I don't think Tobruk was much use to the Germans as a port because the allies controlled the Med for the most part.
Auchinleck wasn't keen, but ceded to Churchill's insistence that Tobruk should be defended. The Auch was right, but wasn't prepared to lose his job over it.
It’s one of those things that has been debated back and forth.
Churchill knew of Rommel’s supply woes due to Ultra.
Malta and the submarines was critical for making Tobruk a fail as a port for the Axis, remember.
And that was a good part of why the Germans and Italians threw so much at Malta. So if Malta fell…
Thanks M.
I'm writing a book based on Dad's war letters and I need to research this subject a bit more. Your comments help. I don't want to just buy the conventional wisdom.
There’s no one answer. The effect of Ultra on strategy is still being debated.
Then there are the morale considerations - easy to say retreat and make the enemies work harder. But if an army gets used to retreating…
You could make a very good book, I think, from building the larger picture around what he says - the stuff he couldn’t have known, but we know now.
I'm thinking of making a silent protest by turning up at the polling station without an ID card, and then walking out again.
Do as you like of course, but won't that just make a scene for blameless polling station volunteers who may even agree with you about opposing the policy?
Curious at first that Brsexit is more important for the Labour voters - but on reflection a lot of Tory voters think it is all done anyway. Which does not say much for the latter.
The latter just happen to understand we have left the EU.
Which still sticks like a fishbone in the throat of Remainers. Which doesn't say much for them or their acceptance of the democratic will.
Wibbling. That vote, and any mandate attached to it, is done.
What happens next is a matter still to be decided. That’s democracy.
New Morning Consult poll finds that Trump has a net negative rating in every nation asked outside the USA other than Ghana, Indonesia and the UAE. President Biden however has a net positive rating in every nation asked.
The Republican Party as a whole though has a net positive rating in every nation except Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the UK. Even if the Democratic Party is again preferred to the GOP in every nation asked
I don't know if anyone can help on this but I'd be interested to know about India's perspective on the Ukraine war. Firstly India appear to see Russia as an important ally. Secondly and more puzzlingly is a poll that shows people in India are likely to think that Russia is stronger than they thought it was before the war started a year ago. Is the media perception there that Russia is actually winning? Has Putin funded a load of propaganda in India?
Some talk the Ukrainians have conducted a successful counter-attack north of Bakhmut and that they have encircled Russian forces. Fingers crossed.
At least one of the videos that has been posted claiming to be recent reinforcements for Bakhmut is from last autumn, on the basis of the vegetation visible.
I'm fairly certain that if the Ukrainians were going to make a counteroffensive in an attempt to hold Bakhmut, they wouldn't have left it so late. But a bit of misinformation to cover a retreat - that's quite possible.
Denis Davydov was talking about bursting one of the dams to cut off the Russia troops. Whatever the droughts elsewhere in Europe they don't seem short of water in Ukraine.
Isn't the point about Bakhmut that it is of little military significance? I believe the Russians want it just so they can claim a victory somewhere, but it doesn't really help their war aims.
Rather reminds me of Tobruk, where my old man was wounded. It made no sense to try and hold it, but Churchill insisted. Hmmmm......
Tobruk actually made some sense. Rommel was fighting at the end of a madly long supply chain. Capturing a port to shorten it was a massive thing for him.
Not sure about that, M.
My understanding is that by taking Tobruk he forced the 8th Army to do what it should have done in the first place - retreat to Alexandria and extend German supply lines further. I don't think Tobruk was much use to the Germans as a port because the allies controlled the Med for the most part.
Auchinleck wasn't keen, but ceded to Churchill's insistence that Tobruk should be defended. The Auch was right, but wasn't prepared to lose his job over it.
It’s one of those things that has been debated back and forth.
Churchill knew of Rommel’s supply woes due to Ultra.
Malta and the submarines was critical for making Tobruk a fail as a port for the Axis, remember.
And that was a good part of why the Germans and Italians threw so much at Malta. So if Malta fell…
Thanks M.
I'm writing a book based on Dad's war letters and I need to research this subject a bit more. Your comments help. I don't want to just buy the conventional wisdom.
There’s no one answer. The effect of Ultra on strategy is still being debated.
Then there are the morale considerations - easy to say retreat and make the enemies work harder. But if an army gets used to retreating…
You could make a very good book, I think, from building the larger picture around what he says - the stuff he couldn’t have known, but we know now.
He was an ordinary gunner, M, and had little idea of what the bigger picture might have looked like. Even if he had, censorship would have prevented him from expressing his thoughts in writing.
The letters are nevertheless fascinating, but more for what they tell us unintentionally - about family, friendships, day-to-day life in the Army and so on. There is little about the action, with one notable exception. Some months after he was wounded he wrote to my Mum from the hospital in South Africa where he was recovering and described in detail the action leading up to and including the hit his gun took. He was the only survivor because he was fetching ammo at the time. Even so he was very lucky to get away from the battlefield alive. The letter is about ten pages and reads like a film script.
You don't know how lucky you all are that he made it out alive and was able to produce a son who was to write so brilliantly for PB.com 80 years later!
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
It might have delivered a lot even if the latter two aren't in favour, even if it has not delivered enough in their eyes. That's the problem with such automatic, stock rejection strategies - it's impossible for outsiders to tell if they are rejecting for good reasons or not on specific occasions, since their standard truculence generally makes no distinction to events.
That leads to people reasonably thinking they are not seriously engaging, so they lose the perception war, and then they whinge about people not understanding their position.
Well I have just made a valiant effort to set fire to my house. Threw a log onto my newly lit stove and I had burning cones all over my carpet.
Whoops.
Several decades ago, my dad demolished a high-voltage substation. The floor of the building was made of hardwood cubic blocks, probably about two inches on a side. (*) He disposed of most of them, but kept a hundred or so as firewood in our wood store. Each block was rather heavy. Come winter, he started the first fire of the year. Once it was going, he fetched one of the blocks and chucked it on.
After a few minutes, flames were roaring up the chimney, and out of the fireplace and up the wall into the room. He and my brother got some tongs and got the block out onto a metal tray, then chucked it through the window into the garden, where it burnt merrily away for a long time.
On closer examination, it turned out that over the years, oil had leaked out of the wet transformers and onto the floor, where it had seeped into the blocks.
We ended up chopping them into tiny pieces, which made brilliant firelighters. If somewhat smelly...
(*) I have no idea why the floor was wooden, given fire risk. Vibration? Lack of risk of short-circuits? Static prevention?
A friend used to manage a pharmaceutical wholesaler in Bradford, in a onetime woollen mill. He said much of the woodwork was soaked in lanolin and if there was a fire it would go up like a fireball!
So @HumzaYousaf says ‘Isla Bryson’ is ‘at it’? 1. Your Govt said repeatedly that would never happen 2. How do you know? 3. How do women ever know about any of them? 4. Tell Stonewall 5. Why is it okay for you to say that, but when women say it they’re ‘transphobic’?
A Jamaican criminal who avoided deportation following legal challenges backed by Labour MPs and a host of celebrities went on to commit murder, the Daily Mail can reveal.
Ernesto Elliott was due to be aboard a Home Office charter flight in December 2020, but dodged efforts to remove him thanks to last-minute human rights appeals.
But in June 2021 – six months after he was supposed to have been removed from Britain – Elliott murdered a 35-year-old man in a horrific knife fight.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Weird thing is it's not like either of them are doormats for Boris, they are at least sincere in being awkward whatever is going on (albeit not always to the same degree), yet appear content to once more be his vehicle to exact personal revenge.
Famous Brits who used the title Doctor outside a medical context, I think.
David Owen?
Yebbut Beeching was the first to my knowledge. It's astonishing to me that he was given such a wide brief and free rein on the railways. His working background was in ICI and armaments during the war.
Technically, Dr Crippen wasn't a real MD ... but one could start with Dr Johnson, S. of Lichfield.
Dr. Johnson wins it I think.
I did wonder about Dr Donne but he's not nearly so often mentioned. Dr Fell is another runner, though. My mum used to recite to me a little poem about Dr Fell.
Edit: found it.
I do not like thee, Doctor Fell, The reason why – I cannot tell; But this I know, and know full well, I do not like thee, Doctor Fell.
A Jamaican criminal who avoided deportation following legal challenges backed by Labour MPs and a host of celebrities went on to commit murder, the Daily Mail can reveal.
Ernesto Elliott was due to be aboard a Home Office charter flight in December 2020, but dodged efforts to remove him thanks to last-minute human rights appeals.
But in June 2021 – six months after he was supposed to have been removed from Britain – Elliott murdered a 35-year-old man in a horrific knife fight.
Human rights still apply, why is murder relevant? Or do you think we treat criminals like non-humans?
This simply has to be a set up, (not least because I don't buy it would stay so calm and polite on both sides) but I still laughed so hard at the older chap sitting on a park bench and being asked to move by a young person doing a livestream. Tickled my inner old man scoffing at those darn young people. Sure, he could have moved, but being expected to would set many off.
The choreography is quite thuddingly simplistic isn't it? I mean what on earth do Rishi and Ursula have left to discuss at this stage? It's like the Sesame Street version of international diplomacy. Thank God that they got talked down from having Charles joining in with his golden coach and full military geegaws.
Any lift of paperwork for GB-NI trade is a result on the revised protocol. The blunt reality is that GB is NI business' biggest market so we need the smoothest trade possible. When as a consumer I get a parcel with a shirt in it from a GB supplier with a customs declaration attached to it, something isnt right.
The main reason for this mess up lies with Boris Johnson. Everyone knew he was going to sign a deal before deadline date just before Christmas and the fact it was a complete mish mash mattered not, he was going to sign. Whether the plan was to always renegotiate I honestly doubt.
I’m quite excited about the deal. I really hope it is as positive as flagged. If so, it will be a game-changer for UK/EU relations and might unlock a bunch of other enhancements too.
The choreography is quite thuddingly simplistic isn't it? I mean what on earth do Rishi and Ursula have left to discuss at this stage? It's like the Sesame Street version of international diplomacy. Thank God that they got talked down from having Charles joining in with his golden coach and full military geegaws.
One cannot break the rules of the game. You have your leaking phase, your 'constructive discussions' phase, the actual work going on behind the scenes, the wading in of idiots on the sidelines, the last minute difficulties and 11th hour fudge, and then the issued statement at the end, etc etc.
Senior people really do need wrangling and scheduling like this, or who knows what they might get up to? You want Rishi or Boris or Keir or Ursula or whomever more time to open their mouths and cause a problem?
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Sunak can afford to do that provided he gets most Tory MPs behind the Deal, if he doesn't he would swiftly face a VONC if he only passes the Deal with Labour votes.
However it won't do much to restore the Stormont Executive if the DUP still boycott it as the deal is not sufficient for them as the largest Unionist Party, unless the GFA is amended so the UUP and Alliance can replace the DUP
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Weird thing is it's not like either of them are doormats for Boris, they are at least sincere in being awkward whatever is going on (albeit not always to the same degree), yet appear content to once more be his vehicle to exact personal revenge.
If it is seen as too big a capitulation and Boris trashes the Deal I would expect RefUK to be on 10%+ by the end of next week at Tory expense.
Albeit Sunak will have hoped to have regained some 2019 Tory soft Leavers from Labour and Tory Remainers from the LDs
Any lift of paperwork for GB-NI trade is a result on the revised protocol. The blunt reality is that GB is NI business' biggest market so we need the smoothest trade possible. When as a consumer I get a parcel with a shirt in it from a GB supplier with a customs declaration attached to it, something isnt right.
The main reason for this mess up lies with Boris Johnson. Everyone knew he was going to sign a deal before deadline date just before Christmas and the fact it was a complete mish mash mattered not, he was going to sign. Whether the plan was to always renegotiate I honestly doubt.
I would correct one part, that everyone knew Boris was going to sign a deal. In fact prior to and just after his taking the Premiership a great many people opposing him insisted Boris was not bluffing and wanted no deal at all. That he got one, and thus showed they were wrong on that fundamental point, may have been a key reason people slightly discounted the other many good reasons not to trust him, since the accusation about what he wanted to do had been plainly incorrect, even if it was a mish mash which would need renegotiation.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Weird thing is it's not like either of them are doormats for Boris, they are at least sincere in being awkward whatever is going on (albeit not always to the same degree), yet appear content to once more be his vehicle to exact personal revenge.
If it is seen as too big a capitulation and Boris trashes the Deal I would expect RefUK to be on 10%+ by the end of next week at Tory expense.
Albeit Sunak will have hoped to have regained some 2019 Tory soft Leavers from Labour and Tory Remainers from the LDs
Eh, they're too far gone to given him the benefit of the doubt I reckon. He needs the DUP, but not sure he can even privately offer them what they want, which is to top the poll in NI.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Sunak can afford to do that provided he gets most Tory MPs behind the Deal, if he doesn't he would swiftly face a VONC if he only passes the Deal with Labour votes.
However it won't do much to restore the Stormont Executive if the DUP still boycott it as the deal is not sufficient for them as the largest Unionist Party, unless the GFA is amended so the UUP and Alliance can replace the DUP
That isnt going to happen. The Unionist voting bloc is reported to regularly 80+% for supporting the boycott stance but at the same time Unionists are more solidly behind the concept of the Stormont Assembly than large sections of Nationalism. In short Unionist parties are rewarded by their voters for being in.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Weird thing is it's not like either of them are doormats for Boris, they are at least sincere in being awkward whatever is going on (albeit not always to the same degree), yet appear content to once more be his vehicle to exact personal revenge.
If it is seen as too big a capitulation and Boris trashes the Deal I would expect RefUK to be on 10%+ by the end of next week at Tory expense.
Albeit Sunak will have hoped to have regained some 2019 Tory soft Leavers from Labour and Tory Remainers from the LDs
You’re usually not completely nuts in your actual polling predictions, but it seems pretty wild to expect Reform above 10%
More likely is a simple voter’s strike from some of the remaining Tory base. Reform doesn’t currently even have a leader with any real profile.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Sunak can afford to do that provided he gets most Tory MPs behind the Deal, if he doesn't he would swiftly face a VONC if he only passes the Deal with Labour votes.
However it won't do much to restore the Stormont Executive if the DUP still boycott it as the deal is not sufficient for them as the largest Unionist Party, unless the GFA is amended so the UUP and Alliance can replace the DUP
Of course, when the GFA was signed, the UUP were the largest Unionist party. If the Alliance party were to be the largest party, would they be allowed to be in government? Assuming they didn’t have to declare as a Unionist or Nationalist party.
The choreography is quite thuddingly simplistic isn't it? I mean what on earth do Rishi and Ursula have left to discuss at this stage? It's like the Sesame Street version of international diplomacy…
Sunak’s backbench audience are essentially children, so spelling it out for them is probably a good idea.
A Jamaican criminal who avoided deportation following legal challenges backed by Labour MPs and a host of celebrities went on to commit murder, the Daily Mail can reveal.
Ernesto Elliott was due to be aboard a Home Office charter flight in December 2020, but dodged efforts to remove him thanks to last-minute human rights appeals.
But in June 2021 – six months after he was supposed to have been removed from Britain – Elliott murdered a 35-year-old man in a horrific knife fight.
Human rights still apply, why is murder relevant? Or do you think we treat criminals like non-humans?
You think deportation means treating people like non-humans? Are you ok with keeping people in prisons?
I don't know if anyone can help on this but I'd be interested to know about India's perspective on the Ukraine war. Firstly India appear to see Russia as an important ally. Secondly and more puzzlingly is a poll that shows people in India are likely to think that Russia is stronger than they thought it was before the war started a year ago. Is the media perception there that Russia is actually winning? Has Putin funded a load of propaganda in India?
The Indian political establishment and media are generally pro-Russia to some degree on the basis that they think they need Russia as a strategic counterweight against Pakistan/China.
If you want to suppress voters you need to be quite subtle about it. Whatever the motives this looks like a complete mess for the government. Best for the to row back now. My guess is any benefit they get from a reduced Labour turnout will be outweighed by a sense that the government has made a mess or worse.
The Conservatives might come to rue the day when the went all in on voter suppression. In the wake of the chaos coming this May, their actions will just about ensure that just about the first piece of legislation that a Labour government will want to introduce is a bill to reform the administration of elections, one which will go far beyond what might otherwise have been. Contents might include: - automatic registration of electors based on administrative records eg. automatic enrolment from school records for younger electors - immediate financial consequences to unregistered electors, making a check against the electoral register a condition of receiving state financial assistance, much as banks etc currently make use of checks on registration via credit reference agencies - allowing unregistered electors to cast provisional ballots that would be subject to later verification in cases where it could make a difference.
I don't know if anyone can help on this but I'd be interested to know about India's perspective on the Ukraine war. Firstly India appear to see Russia as an important ally. Secondly and more puzzlingly is a poll that shows people in India are likely to think that Russia is stronger than they thought it was before the war started a year ago. Is the media perception there that Russia is actually winning? Has Putin funded a load of propaganda in India?
The Indian political establishment and media are generally pro-Russia to some degree on the basis that they think they need Russia as a strategic counterweight against Pakistan/China.
Russia is going to do fuck all to help India when it comes to China.
The choreography is quite thuddingly simplistic isn't it? I mean what on earth do Rishi and Ursula have left to discuss at this stage? It's like the Sesame Street version of international diplomacy…
Sunak’s backbench audience are essentially children, so spelling it out for them is probably a good idea.
He certainly seems to think so. But it seems that his own ideas often have this sort of oddly gauche 'school debating club' aspect to them. Perhaps he is being poorly advised.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Sunak can afford to do that provided he gets most Tory MPs behind the Deal, if he doesn't he would swiftly face a VONC if he only passes the Deal with Labour votes.
However it won't do much to restore the Stormont Executive if the DUP still boycott it as the deal is not sufficient for them as the largest Unionist Party, unless the GFA is amended so the UUP and Alliance can replace the DUP
Of course, when the GFA was signed, the UUP were the largest Unionist party. If the Alliance party were to be the largest party, would they be allowed to be in government? Assuming they didn’t have to declare as a Unionist or Nationalist party.
The Alliance now poll well over 10%, in 1998 they polled about 5% so they should be allowed a role in the executive in my view with the party with most seats and a smaller Unionist or Nationalist Party (if the party with most seats is from the other block)
Thought the Bushes knew better than to weigh in now. Magaland is not for them.
I believe the Bushes endorsed McCain in 2008, Romney in 2012, Jeb then Cruz in 2016 and now it seems DeSantis. A mixed record since they left the White House in terms of who won the Republican nomination
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Sunak can afford to do that provided he gets most Tory MPs behind the Deal, if he doesn't he would swiftly face a VONC if he only passes the Deal with Labour votes.
However it won't do much to restore the Stormont Executive if the DUP still boycott it as the deal is not sufficient for them as the largest Unionist Party, unless the GFA is amended so the UUP and Alliance can replace the DUP
Of course, when the GFA was signed, the UUP were the largest Unionist party. If the Alliance party were to be the largest party, would they be allowed to be in government? Assuming they didn’t have to declare as a Unionist or Nationalist party.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Weird thing is it's not like either of them are doormats for Boris, they are at least sincere in being awkward whatever is going on (albeit not always to the same degree), yet appear content to once more be his vehicle to exact personal revenge.
If it is seen as too big a capitulation and Boris trashes the Deal I would expect RefUK to be on 10%+ by the end of next week at Tory expense.
Albeit Sunak will have hoped to have regained some 2019 Tory soft Leavers from Labour and Tory Remainers from the LDs
You’re usually not completely nuts in your actual polling predictions, but it seems pretty wild to expect Reform above 10%
More likely is a simple voter’s strike from some of the remaining Tory base. Reform doesn’t currently even have a leader with any real profile.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Sunak can afford to do that provided he gets most Tory MPs behind the Deal, if he doesn't he would swiftly face a VONC if he only passes the Deal with Labour votes.
However it won't do much to restore the Stormont Executive if the DUP still boycott it as the deal is not sufficient for them as the largest Unionist Party, unless the GFA is amended so the UUP and Alliance can replace the DUP
Of course, when the GFA was signed, the UUP were the largest Unionist party. If the Alliance party were to be the largest party, would they be allowed to be in government? Assuming they didn’t have to declare as a Unionist or Nationalist party.
{Protestant Catholics have entered the chat}
As a Catholic Protestant I take issue with that. You'd better watch yourself. I know where you live. Wiltshire? We have people there.
If you want to suppress voters you need to be quite subtle about it. Whatever the motives this looks like a complete mess for the government. Best for the to row back now. My guess is any benefit they get from a reduced Labour turnout will be outweighed by a sense that the government has made a mess or worse.
The Conservatives might come to rue the day when the went all in on voter suppression. In the wake of the chaos coming this May, their actions will just about ensure that just about the first piece of legislation that a Labour government will want to introduce is a bill to reform the administration of elections, one which will go far beyond what might otherwise have been. Contents might include: - automatic registration of electors based on administrative records eg. automatic enrolment from school records for younger electors - immediate financial consequences to unregistered electors, making a check against the electoral register a condition of receiving state financial assistance, much as banks etc currently make use of checks on registration via credit reference agencies - allowing unregistered electors to cast provisional ballots that would be subject to later verification in cases where it could make a difference.
Not to mention allowing folk who haven't set foot in the country for donkeys years choosing the government.
There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.
Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.
Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.
I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
Unfortunately it is largely down to lack of demand. Most people living in rural areas are either retired pensioners or farmers. They just don't need to go to the nearest town or city more than once or twice a week.
Hence the bus companies won't do more regular services, unless more families where the parents commute to work in the city and the children go to secondary school in the nearest town move there
The problem is "rural" is increasingly "anything outside a city".
Even a bus to a commuter town a relatively short distance outside a city is at high risk now. And it's not just farmers and pensioners using those.
Albeit most commuter towns still have a railway station which most villages and rural areas don't
I realise you wrote ‘most’ but the town where I live now doesn’t have a station. Nor does another not far away.
For which blame Beeching.
Almost all towns with populations over 25,000 will have a station still however
Mine doesn't. The other issue is, of course, you can only commute to the places on the same line. Even if we had a station, I couldn't get to my work by train. As it would only go into Newcastle. Not the neighbouring town.
Newcastle under Lyme has no station either. Must be the only large town in Staffordshire that doesn't.
Can't think where the nearest convenient station would be either. Stoke's a bugger to get to except by train. Stone, maybe?
Well, yes, but I wasn't thinking about 1964. Missing a train by 59 years isn't really a lot of help.
Two points about Beeching:
*) His report was just a report; politicians did not have to follow the recommendations (Thatcher did not follow the Serpell reports), and some lines that were due to close remained open; and some that were due to remain open were closed. Due to politics. Don't blame Beeching; blame the governments.
*) More railways closed under Labour than under the Conservatives. They could have stopped the closures at any point if they wanted (and IIRC, they campaigned against the Beeching cuts in 1964).
No country could stand forever against economic reality, no matter how much sentimental drivel people spout about rural railways transporting mostly fresh air from nowhere to nowhere (at huge expense to taxpayers, though they never mention that). The French and Belgians started closing uneconomic lines in the face of competition from cars in 1938. The West Germans and Americans, like us, made their big wave of cuts in the 1960s though. Spain did not have its 'Beeching' moment on the broad-gauge until the 1980s - it is said Gen. Franco resisted closures, viewing them in old military strategic terms. Most of the narrow-gauge systems had gone by the 1960s.
It is rather telling that the countries where the reckoning was most delayed were the Stalinist dictatorships of Eastern Europe.
Coming late to this:
I agree - the Beeching Cuts were necessary (although some mistakes were made). In fact, there had been plenty of closures before Beeching, and some before - most of which people seem to blame on 'Beeching'.
It's just people complaining about Beeching are looking at the wrong target. He closed no railways; he (like Serpell two decades later) was asked to do a job. The governments were the people who shut the lines and closed the stations.
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Sunak can afford to do that provided he gets most Tory MPs behind the Deal, if he doesn't he would swiftly face a VONC if he only passes the Deal with Labour votes.
However it won't do much to restore the Stormont Executive if the DUP still boycott it as the deal is not sufficient for them as the largest Unionist Party, unless the GFA is amended so the UUP and Alliance can replace the DUP
Of course, when the GFA was signed, the UUP were the largest Unionist party. If the Alliance party were to be the largest party, would they be allowed to be in government? Assuming they didn’t have to declare as a Unionist or Nationalist party.
{Protestant Catholics have entered the chat}
As a Catholic Protestant I take issue with that. You'd better watch yourself. I know where you live. Wiltshire? We have people there.
For those who don’t know - because entry into the Northern Ireland Police Service was split 50/50 Protestant/Catholic, people who didn’t fit in either category weren’t (initially) handled
In the end they were added to the Protestant quota.
Then came a problem (ha) of a small number of Catholics who were immigrants from other countries seeking to join….
They've missed out the bit where the PM gets a call from Arlene Foster while meeting the Commission President.
Followed by the call from ERG chair Mark Francois and DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
If it marginalises the ERG and the DUP it will have delivered a lot.
Weird thing is it's not like either of them are doormats for Boris, they are at least sincere in being awkward whatever is going on (albeit not always to the same degree), yet appear content to once more be his vehicle to exact personal revenge.
If it is seen as too big a capitulation and Boris trashes the Deal I would expect RefUK to be on 10%+ by the end of next week at Tory expense.
Albeit Sunak will have hoped to have regained some 2019 Tory soft Leavers from Labour and Tory Remainers from the LDs
You’re usually not completely nuts in your actual polling predictions, but it seems pretty wild to expect Reform above 10%
More likely is a simple voter’s strike from some of the remaining Tory base. Reform doesn’t currently even have a leader with any real profile.
Do you see them having enough candidates and campaigning profile at an actual election to be able to crystallise that 10% polling intention though? A slighter rise from GE19, maybe up to 5%, seems more likely.
Comments
1. A liar who breaks pledges constantly
2. rebranding every few weeks
3. rules are for others
All Boris's good traits like being amusing,likeable are a mirror image of SKS though.
Churchill knew of Rommel’s supply woes due to Ultra.
Malta and the submarines was critical for making Tobruk a fail as a port for the Axis, remember.
And that was a good part of why the Germans and Italians threw so much at Malta. So if Malta fell…
I'm writing a book based on Dad's war letters and I need to research this subject a bit more. Your comments help. I don't want to just buy the conventional wisdom.
I'm aware there are laws governing behaviour in polling stations, and I have responsibilities that limit how far I'd personally push it, but I wonder if anyone of like mind might consider their own circumstances in relation to this.
I'm tempted myself, but on reflection I think the officials at Polling Stations have enough on their hands without having to deal with deliberate troublemakers like you and me.
Then there are the morale considerations - easy to say retreat and make the enemies work harder. But if an army gets used to retreating…
You could make a very good book, I think, from building the larger picture around what he says - the stuff he couldn’t have known, but we know now.
1️⃣Late lunchtime - @RishiSunak and @vonderleyen meet for ‘final talks’.
2️⃣Afternoon - Cabinet incl updates from
@JamesCleverly & @chhcalling.
3️⃣Late afternoon - news conference TBC.
4️⃣Evening - @RishiSunak in Commons
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1629972089418526723?s=20
That vote, and any mandate attached to it, is done.
What happens next is a matter still to be decided. That’s democracy.
The Republican Party as a whole though has a net positive rating in every nation except Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the UK. Even if the Democratic Party is again preferred to the GOP in every nation asked
https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1629977883530633216?s=20
The letters are nevertheless fascinating, but more for what they tell us unintentionally - about family, friendships, day-to-day life in the Army and so on. There is little about the action, with one notable exception. Some months after he was wounded he wrote to my Mum from the hospital in South Africa where he was recovering and described in detail the action leading up to and including the hit his gun took. He was the only survivor because he was fetching ammo at the time. Even so he was very lucky to get away from the battlefield alive. The letter is about ten pages and reads like a film script.
You don't know how lucky you all are that he made it out alive and was able to produce a son who was to write so brilliantly for PB.com 80 years later!
Mrs Smith who has been walking down to the same polling station every year for the past four decades, papers please!
If the latter 2 aren't in favour the Deal has not delivered much, even if it passes the Commons with Labour support
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/rishi-sunak-northern-ireland-protocol-deal-announcement-monday
FT front page:
That leads to people reasonably thinking they are not seriously engaging, so they lose the perception war, and then they whinge about people not understanding their position.
Sometimes by accident.
So @HumzaYousaf says ‘Isla Bryson’ is ‘at it’? 1. Your Govt said repeatedly that would never happen 2. How do you know? 3. How do women ever know about any of them? 4. Tell Stonewall 5. Why is it okay for you to say that, but when women say it they’re ‘transphobic’?
https://twitter.com/HotchkissRhona/status/1629879594831564800?s=20
A Jamaican criminal who avoided deportation following legal challenges backed by Labour MPs and a host of celebrities went on to commit murder, the Daily Mail can reveal.
Ernesto Elliott was due to be aboard a Home Office charter flight in December 2020, but dodged efforts to remove him thanks to last-minute human rights appeals.
But in June 2021 – six months after he was supposed to have been removed from Britain – Elliott murdered a 35-year-old man in a horrific knife fight.
https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1629975959108481025?cxt=HHwWgsCzsfaf654tAAAA
The main reason for this mess up lies with Boris Johnson. Everyone knew he was going to sign a deal before deadline date just before Christmas and the fact it was a complete mish mash mattered not, he was going to sign. Whether the plan was to always renegotiate I honestly doubt.
I really hope it is as positive as flagged.
If so, it will be a game-changer for UK/EU relations and might unlock a bunch of other enhancements too.
Senior people really do need wrangling and scheduling like this, or who knows what they might get up to? You want Rishi or Boris or Keir or Ursula or whomever more time to open their mouths and cause a problem?
However it won't do much to restore the Stormont Executive if the DUP still boycott it as the deal is not sufficient for them as the largest Unionist Party, unless the GFA is amended so the UUP and Alliance can replace the DUP
Albeit Sunak will have hoped to have regained some 2019 Tory soft Leavers from Labour and Tory Remainers from the LDs
More likely is a simple voter’s strike from some of the remaining Tory base. Reform doesn’t currently even have a leader with any real profile.
The Indian political establishment and media are generally pro-Russia to some degree on the basis that they think they need Russia as a strategic counterweight against Pakistan/China.
Jeb Bush endorses Ron Desantis for president.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1629846391466983424
- automatic registration of electors based on administrative records eg. automatic enrolment from school records for younger electors
- immediate financial consequences to unregistered electors, making a check against the electoral register a condition of receiving state financial assistance, much as banks etc currently make use of checks on registration via credit reference agencies
- allowing unregistered electors to cast provisional ballots that would be subject to later verification in cases where it could make a difference.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
You'd better watch yourself.
I know where you live.
Wiltshire? We have people there.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/25/trump-desantis-event-00084447
I agree - the Beeching Cuts were necessary (although some mistakes were made). In fact, there had been plenty of closures before Beeching, and some before - most of which people seem to blame on 'Beeching'.
It's just people complaining about Beeching are looking at the wrong target. He closed no railways; he (like Serpell two decades later) was asked to do a job. The governments were the people who shut the lines and closed the stations.
In the end they were added to the Protestant quota.
Then came a problem (ha) of a small number of Catholics who were immigrants from other countries seeking to join….