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The local elections could be tainted – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,492

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
    While there is a growth in not learning to drive, all the teenagers locally are learning to drive.
    An astonishing statistic.

    The roads round here are jammed with them. Convoys of teachers in the evenings. The level of intolerance towards them is a bit much - horn honking for going 17 in a 20 is simply unpleasant.
    Thanks for clarifying that you just meant there were a lot of driving instructors around on the roads. That does sound more believable.
    Also from talking to parents and teachers at a range of schools locally - the agro about getting a driving test is upsetting lots of them.
    There is an interesting way to get past the 6 month wait, explained to me by a driving instructor.

    1) Book a test anywhere in the country via one of the £10 apps that can book tests, this way you get a quick date, albeit several hundred miles away.

    2) Via the app transfer it to a local centre in Leicester or wherever.

    It's queue jumping of course, but it works.

    2) Set
  • kjh said:

    I think it depends on circumstances. If someone was really awkward or suffers from low self esteem it would be a cruel thing to say, but if someone tells me I'm a bit weird I take that as a compliment. Better than being boring.

    PS I have to. It has been said quite a few times.

    I would not wish to suggest anything but to me it sounds like a similar situation I used to find myself in where I was forced to just go along with the "joke" because it was easier. I am well shot of those people now but I don't think they were being complimentary, they were just unkind people.
  • Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,638
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
    While there is a growth in not learning to drive, all the teenagers locally are learning to drive.
    An astonishing statistic.

    The roads round here are jammed with them. Convoys of teachers in the evenings. The level of intolerance towards them is a bit much - horn honking for going 17 in a 20 is simply unpleasant.
    Thanks for clarifying that you just meant there were a lot of driving instructors around on the roads. That does sound more believable.
    Also from talking to parents and teachers at a range of schools locally - the agro about getting a driving test is upsetting lots of them.
    There is an interesting way to get past the 6 month wait, explained to me by a driving instructor.

    1) Book a test anywhere in the country via one of the £10 apps that can book tests, this way you get a quick date, albeit several hundred miles away.

    2) Via the app transfer it to a local centre in Leicester or wherever.

    It's queue jumping of course, but it works.

    2) Set
    A driving instructor I met, told me that you can get a driving test at any time you want. For a price.

    She was fairly appalled by this and reckons that it sets the stage for people passing who shouldn’t.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,642
    Curious at first that Brsexit is more important for the Labour voters - but on reflection a lot of Tory voters think it is all done anyway. Which does not say much for the latter.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595
    Carnyx said:

    Curious at first that Brsexit is more important for the Labour voters - but on reflection a lot of Tory voters think it is all done anyway. Which does not say much for the latter.
    A few Tory voters have opted for 'nothing', as in: nothing is the most important issue in the UK.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,261
    Pagan2 said:

    No one advocates dismembering Russia we just want it to stay within russian borders and stop fucking invading people
    That is not true; it was advocated in a very famous Foreign Affairs article by Zbigniew Brzezinski (US Foreign policy high up), the various precepts of which have been echoed in US foreign policy over decades. You can argue whether it has been a major or minor factor, but you can't argue that it's never been advocated, nor that it has only been advocated in the light of recent events.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,385
    Carnyx said:

    Curious at first that Brsexit is more important for the Labour voters - but on reflection a lot of Tory voters think it is all done anyway. Which does not say much for the latter.
    The latter just happen to understand we have left the EU.

    Which still sticks like a fishbone in the throat of Remainers. Which doesn't say much for them or their acceptance of the democratic will.
  • Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    In fairness the government is focussed on many the voters key priorities - they’ve just got to tidy up the mess left by Johnson:



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-outlines-his-five-key-priorities-for-2023
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595

    Carnyx said:

    Curious at first that Brsexit is more important for the Labour voters - but on reflection a lot of Tory voters think it is all done anyway. Which does not say much for the latter.
    The latter just happen to understand we have left the EU.

    Which still sticks like a fishbone in the throat of Remainers. Which doesn't say much for them or their acceptance of the democratic will.
    Just remind me, what issue has our PM been focused on for the last few weeks?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,256



    Pagan2 said:

    No one advocates dismembering Russia we just want it to stay within russian borders and stop fucking invading people
    That is not true; it was advocated in a very famous Foreign Affairs article by Zbigniew Brzezinski (US Foreign policy high up), the various precepts of which have been echoed in US foreign policy over decades. You can argue whether it has been a major or minor factor, but you can't argue that it's never been advocated, nor that it has only been advocated in the light of recent events.
    Yes, comrade.
  • Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    In fairness the government is focussed on many the voters key priorities - they’ve just got to tidy up the mess left by Johnson:



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-outlines-his-five-key-priorities-for-2023
    And failing to deliver literally any of them. 13 years of failure.
  • Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
    I asked you what you meant by the claim, and apparently all you can do is post some "numbers made up".

    You say relative likelihood is what matters (in bold). So what is the relative likelihood? I'm guessing you don't actually know.
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/VI-08-04-21-Observer-Tables.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwj17aLS5bP9AhVMiFwKHbPlBHYQFnoECCQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw27te8AnsoflrYgM47uphRt

    This Opinium poll from 2021 has voting intention broken down by car ownership. Among all voters the Tories were ahead by 9pp (those were the days eh). Among non car owners Labour had a 21pp lead. The Tories were ahead 12 (17)pp among those with one (multiple) cars. Car ownership is one of the most reliable indicators of party ID, alongside home ownership. Although it's not infallible - my wife and I own a car and a house outright and wouldn't vote Tory even if Rishi Sunak came round to our house and offered to do the hoovering.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,261

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1629463549943635973

    The new Malthouse Compromise: @kitmalthouse on @GBNEWS proposes a swap deal with France to stop the small boats

    I actually like this idea.
    It is quite clever. No idea why the French would sign up to it though.
    It is novel, but sadly, the incentive for France would be to quickly rubber stamp and relabel the new arrivals returned to them as genuine refugees, and on the conveyor belt back to Blighty they go, newly 'French-washed' so nobody can complain.

    He's correct that we need to eliminate the pull factors, and he's correct that asylum processing cannot be in the UK, but it falls down that the processing would be done by a foreign party with no interest in making the process rigorous. We need to process our own asylum seekers, overseas.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,728
    edited February 2023

    kjh said:

    I think it depends on circumstances. If someone was really awkward or suffers from low self esteem it would be a cruel thing to say, but if someone tells me I'm a bit weird I take that as a compliment. Better than being boring.

    PS I have to. It has been said quite a few times.

    I would not wish to suggest anything but to me it sounds like a similar situation I used to find myself in where I was forced to just go along with the "joke" because it was easier. I am well shot of those people now but I don't think they were being complimentary, they were just unkind people.
    Nope in my case it was just in fun, but I understand it isn't always and in the case you describe that is just plain cruel and you shouldn't have to go along with it and I would have said something, but that isn't always easy and you are well shot of them. Good for you.

    It is pretty easy, I think, to tell the difference between being cruel and having fun for those who are are saying it.

    One example I can give, is because I used to work from home, before it was fashionable, I had multiple pairs of slippers, all identical. On one skiing holiday I turned up at the chalet with two left slippers. I think it was felt odd that I even took slippers with me in the first place, so just for fun I mentioned I had two left slippers with me from my vast stock, which I could demonstrate, just for the giggles. I was setting myself up for the laugh so no cruelty was involved.
  • Boris Johnson said he'd get Brexit done.

    Brexit isn't done.

    Voters are not happy about it, mark my words. This is a bad thing for the Tories to be publicising.
  • kjh said:

    kjh said:

    I think it depends on circumstances. If someone was really awkward or suffers from low self esteem it would be a cruel thing to say, but if someone tells me I'm a bit weird I take that as a compliment. Better than being boring.

    PS I have to. It has been said quite a few times.

    I would not wish to suggest anything but to me it sounds like a similar situation I used to find myself in where I was forced to just go along with the "joke" because it was easier. I am well shot of those people now but I don't think they were being complimentary, they were just unkind people.
    Nope in my case it was just in fun, but I understand it isn't always and in the case you describe that is just plain cruel and you shouldn't have to go along with it and I would have said something, but that isn't always easy and you are well shot of them. Good for you.

    It is pretty easy, I think, to tell the difference between being cruel and having fun for those who are are saying it.

    One example I can give, is because I used to work from home, before it was fashionable, I had multiple pairs of slippers, all identical. On one skiing holiday I turned up at the chalet with two left slippers. I think it was felt odd that I even took slippers with me in the first place, so just for fun I mentioned I had two left slippers with me from my vast stock, which I could demonstrate, just for the giggles. I was setting myself up for the laugh so no cruelty was involved.
    Yes my friends now - of which I am fortunate to have a great deal here in London - are of all sorts and I am happy to make jokes at my expense as they are for themselves. In that case I take that word as you do.
  • I bet Raab could tell if Isla Bryson was a woman…..

    Tomorrow our new transgender prisoner policy comes into force – a strengthened, common-sense framework that will improve safety for prisoners across England and Wales.

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1629843981424009217?s=20
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Hurts
  • I bet Raab could tell if Isla Bryson was a woman…..

    Tomorrow our new transgender prisoner policy comes into force – a strengthened, common-sense framework that will improve safety for prisoners across England and Wales.

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1629843981424009217?s=20

    Presumably when he's abusing them he doesn't match care about the gender
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,805
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    The Leon Singularity gets ever closer. The dread day that PB realizes, with a congealing sense of horror, that Leondamus was RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING

    “The Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a lab leak, according to a classified intelligence report wsj.com/articles/covid… via @WSJ”

    https://twitter.com/danielnasaw/status/1629840256877965312?s=61&t=raLL5JKfj_BYke5HoVBiYw

    Excellent!

    Now all we have to do is have is have it confirmed that Truss surprised o the upside and your reputation is sealed.
    And that Kari Lake really did win in Arizona, although in fairness he did reverse quicker than an Italian tank with that prediction.
    Hey, until her final legal case finishes she might yet be declared the winner! (She won't, apparentely she isn't even submitting evidence at the appeals, not sure how she even is allowed to file).
    One sort of hopes she wins (I don't) because Leon reversed his prediction. That would be quite a record to predict both a win and a loss and get it wrong both times.
    1. I never made any prediction
    2. I was - by a vast distance - the first pb-er to say OOH look there’s a woman called Kari Lake and she’s interesting
    3. The only betting call I made was “bet on her opponent Hobbs at 5/1” when it was clearly a close two horse race - and that came good

    Otherwise, a brilliant point
    I can confirm 3, but I would out that you rather creamed your pants in your effusive praise for Ms Lake's charisma.
    And touted her for first female President….
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,261
    edited February 2023

    Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    Agreed, but what's Starmer's solution to COL? He's not proposing to stop the war in Ukraine (I wouldn't expect that to be fair, but it's worth mentioning as it is at the basis of col), he's not going to be any nicer to domestic oil and gas (worse if anything), he hasn't given any indication at all (afaik) as to how he will do anything to bring down energy costs, which are crippling our economy and impoverishing our people. So where's his great solution?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595

    Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    Agreed, but what's Starmer's solution to COL? He's not proposing to stop the war in Ukraine (I wouldn't expect that to be fair, but it's worth mentioning as it is at the basis of col), he's not going to be any nicer to domestic oil and gas (worse if anything), he hasn't given any indication at all (afaik) as to how he will do anything to bring down energy costs, which are crippling our economy and impoverishing our people. So where's his great solution?
    https://labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-plan-to-address-the-tory-cost-of-living-crisis/
  • Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    Agreed, but what's Starmer's solution to COL? He's not proposing to stop the war in Ukraine (I wouldn't expect that to be fair, but it's worth mentioning as it is at the basis of col), he's not going to be any nicer to domestic oil and gas (worse if anything), he hasn't given any indication at all (afaik) as to how he will do anything to bring down energy costs, which are crippling our economy and impoverishing our people. So where's his great solution?
    https://labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-plan-to-address-the-tory-cost-of-living-crisis/
    In my view this is one of PB's worst traits.

    Keir Starmer was declared as having no policies in March 2020. Since then, despite introducing policies this myth persists.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,411
    edited February 2023

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
    I asked you what you meant by the claim, and apparently all you can do is post some "numbers made up".

    You say relative likelihood is what matters (in bold). So what is the relative likelihood? I'm guessing you don't actually know.
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/VI-08-04-21-Observer-Tables.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwj17aLS5bP9AhVMiFwKHbPlBHYQFnoECCQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw27te8AnsoflrYgM47uphRt

    This Opinium poll from 2021 has voting intention broken down by car ownership. Among all voters the Tories were ahead by 9pp (those were the days eh). Among non car owners Labour had a 21pp lead. The Tories were ahead 12 (17)pp among those with one (multiple) cars. Car ownership is one of the most reliable indicators of party ID, alongside home ownership. Although it's not infallible - my wife and I own a car and a house outright and wouldn't vote Tory even if Rishi Sunak came round to our house and offered to do the hoovering.
    Though isn't that also partly a reflection of the fact London and big cities like Manchester and Bristol and Cardiff lean Labour now and most of the people who live in those big cities which have the best public transport in the country are also under 50 and rent and therefore also more likely to vote Labour.

    In rural safe Conservative areas though public transport is poor and a car is a must but home ownership is also higher and the population older than average
  • Pagan2 said:

    No one advocates dismembering Russia we just want it to stay within russian borders and stop fucking invading people
    I've seen quite a few suggestions on here to the effect that Russia needs to be broken up to prevent a recurrence of aggression in the future.

    A truly satisfactory solution to the 'Russia problem' ensures that aggression is not an issue in the future. I can see that might involve dismantling the Russian Federation. At the very least it requires Russia being transformed as radically as Germany and Japan were after WW2.
    I'd put it like this: the west don't *want* to dismember Russia, as it might lead to unnecessary complications. But what they do want is for Russia to pull out of Ukraine, as the war is leading to more immediate complications.

    If Russia pulling out of Ukraine leads to Russia splitting, then the west will have to deal with that new reality - and such a split is wholly in Russia's hands, not the west's. The fear of a Russia dismemberment - and the dangers that causes - are less dangerous and immediate than the current war.
    If Russia's annexed regions, such as Crimea, are part of Russia then returning them to Ukraine is indeed dismembering Russia, at least as seen from the Kremlin. It's a question of definition.

    As for the Russian Federation collapsing, I've seen that forecast but not advocated.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
    I asked you what you meant by the claim, and apparently all you can do is post some "numbers made up".

    You say relative likelihood is what matters (in bold). So what is the relative likelihood? I'm guessing you don't actually know.
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/VI-08-04-21-Observer-Tables.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwj17aLS5bP9AhVMiFwKHbPlBHYQFnoECCQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw27te8AnsoflrYgM47uphRt

    This Opinium poll from 2021 has voting intention broken down by car ownership. Among all voters the Tories were ahead by 9pp (those were the days eh). Among non car owners Labour had a 21pp lead. The Tories were ahead 12 (17)pp among those with one (multiple) cars. Car ownership is one of the most reliable indicators of party ID, alongside home ownership. Although it's not infallible - my wife and I own a car and a house outright and wouldn't vote Tory even if Rishi Sunak came round to our house and offered to do the hoovering.
    Though isn't that also partly a reflection of the fact London and big cities like Manchester and Bristol and Cardiff lean Labour now and most of the people who live in those big cities which have the best public transport in the country are also under 50 and rent and therefore also more likely to vote Labour.

    In rural safe Conservative areas though public transport is poor and a car is a must but home ownership is also higher and the population older than average
    For sure, there's lots of correlation among all these variables, and a degree of endogeneity in many of them.
  • Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    Agreed, but what's Starmer's solution to COL? He's not proposing to stop the war in Ukraine (I wouldn't expect that to be fair, but it's worth mentioning as it is at the basis of col), he's not going to be any nicer to domestic oil and gas (worse if anything), he hasn't given any indication at all (afaik) as to how he will do anything to bring down energy costs, which are crippling our economy and impoverishing our people. So where's his great solution?
    https://labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-plan-to-address-the-tory-cost-of-living-crisis/
    There is a little bit of does not compute in that plan (as with most political plans). Labour is saying that their plans will bring down inflation by 4% and make interest rate rises less likely to tackle inflation. However, interest rates are not just about inflation, they also represent what investors think about the economy as a whole. So if Labour is using £29bn from windfall taxes to fund the plan, that is likely to cause investor pressure on the pound which may put upward pressure on interest rates.

    However, as a plan, it at least attempts an answer.
  • Boris Johnson said he'd get Brexit done.

    Brexit isn't done.

    Voters are not happy about it, mark my words. This is a bad thing for the Tories to be publicising.

    To be fair, Covid came and blew all Government priorities off course.

    We debated earlier about the Conservatives not having a stable winning coalition but there is an interesting "what if" in that, if Covid had not happened, would Johnson have been able to carve out a new permanent Tory coalition that would have been difficult to beat.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,721

    Hurts

    Newcastle are seriously missing an Alan Shearer or Harry Kane. They play some nice football in midfield, they defend well but the cutting edge is not there. No doubt this will be addressed in the summer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,182
    edited February 2023
    MaxPB said:

    Ash Regan strikes me as a moron. Her comments on America not needing a vote to become independent from the empire are quite possibly the stupidest thing a politician has said in a while.

    Well, it was a rather odd thing to say, but it would be a bit harsh to say it was stupider than Putin's unhinged rants about Ukrainian Nazis, Kari Lake's claims on electoral fraud or Boris Johnson's 'Fuck the Americans.'
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,728
    Well I have just made a valiant effort to set fire to my house. Threw a log onto my newly lit stove and I had burning cones all over my carpet.

    Whoops.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,356
    DavidL said:

    Hurts

    Newcastle are seriously missing an Alan Shearer or Harry Kane. They play some nice football in midfield, they defend well but the cutting edge is not there. No doubt this will be addressed in the summer.
    Hopefully not by signing Alan Shearer!
    Seriously though. There seems to be a dearth of pure goalscorers worldwide. Is that the influence of a generation growing up under the influence of the false 9 I wonder?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,228

    Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    Agreed, but what's Starmer's solution to COL? He's not proposing to stop the war in Ukraine (I wouldn't expect that to be fair, but it's worth mentioning as it is at the basis of col), he's not going to be any nicer to domestic oil and gas (worse if anything), he hasn't given any indication at all (afaik) as to how he will do anything to bring down energy costs, which are crippling our economy and impoverishing our people. So where's his great solution?
    Some nonsense about a green new deal. All nice words. Half a million jobs created, something we’ve heard before several times with these initiatives, expanding on shore wind and offshore wind and solar. All by 2030
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,355

    I bet Raab could tell if Isla Bryson was a woman…..

    Tomorrow our new transgender prisoner policy comes into force – a strengthened, common-sense framework that will improve safety for prisoners across England and Wales.

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1629843981424009217?s=20

    This being a betting site, how long before that policy falls apart; next week next month?
    Anyone prepared to suggest odds?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,356

    Boris Johnson said he'd get Brexit done.

    Brexit isn't done.

    Voters are not happy about it, mark my words. This is a bad thing for the Tories to be publicising.

    To be fair, Covid came and blew all Government priorities off course.

    We debated earlier about the Conservatives not having a stable winning coalition but there is an interesting "what if" in that, if Covid had not happened, would Johnson have been able to carve out a new permanent Tory coalition that would have been difficult to beat.
    I say no.
    Because. Firstly, he'd have still been Boris Johnson. With all that entails.
    Secondly, the coalition of 2019 has mutually opposing aims once you strip pro-Brexit and anti- Corbyn sentiment out of it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,228
    DavidL said:

    Hurts

    Newcastle are seriously missing an Alan Shearer or Harry Kane. They play some nice football in midfield, they defend well but the cutting edge is not there. No doubt this will be addressed in the summer.
    If they don’t get champions league football, and that no longer looks likely, they will struggle to get the sort of player they need.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,885
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
    I asked you what you meant by the claim, and apparently all you can do is post some "numbers made up".

    You say relative likelihood is what matters (in bold). So what is the relative likelihood? I'm guessing you don't actually know.
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/VI-08-04-21-Observer-Tables.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwj17aLS5bP9AhVMiFwKHbPlBHYQFnoECCQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw27te8AnsoflrYgM47uphRt

    This Opinium poll from 2021 has voting intention broken down by car ownership. Among all voters the Tories were ahead by 9pp (those were the days eh). Among non car owners Labour had a 21pp lead. The Tories were ahead 12 (17)pp among those with one (multiple) cars. Car ownership is one of the most reliable indicators of party ID, alongside home ownership. Although it's not infallible - my wife and I own a car and a house outright and wouldn't vote Tory even if Rishi Sunak came round to our house and offered to do the hoovering.
    Though isn't that also partly a reflection of the fact London and big cities like Manchester and Bristol and Cardiff lean Labour now and most of the people who live in those big cities which have the best public transport in the country are also under 50 and rent and therefore also more likely to vote Labour.

    In rural safe Conservative areas though public transport is poor and a car is a must but home ownership is also higher and the population older than average
    Conservative councils are also less likely to subsidise rural and evening bus services, causing a positive feedback.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,261

    Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    Agreed, but what's Starmer's solution to COL? He's not proposing to stop the war in Ukraine (I wouldn't expect that to be fair, but it's worth mentioning as it is at the basis of col), he's not going to be any nicer to domestic oil and gas (worse if anything), he hasn't given any indication at all (afaik) as to how he will do anything to bring down energy costs, which are crippling our economy and impoverishing our people. So where's his great solution?
    https://labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-plan-to-address-the-tory-cost-of-living-crisis/
    Not to shit on the plan unduly - it's nice that he's addressing the issue, but another tax on oil and gas companies, which again will put them off further investment in the UK, and decrease supply of reliable energy in the long term?

    On actual energy supply rather than Government fiddling: 'Further plans include a plan to secure our energy supply to make sure we’re protected against future shocks and build Britain’s energy independence.' - nothing about what those further plans actually are. So no actual medium to long term solution to the col, no energy security strategy.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,885
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Hurts

    Newcastle are seriously missing an Alan Shearer or Harry Kane. They play some nice football in midfield, they defend well but the cutting edge is not there. No doubt this will be addressed in the summer.
    Hopefully not by signing Alan Shearer!
    Seriously though. There seems to be a dearth of pure goalscorers worldwide. Is that the influence of a generation growing up under the influence of the false 9 I wonder?
    The influence of a generation of children being coached by people who have been taught that not losing is more important than winning?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,356
    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    After 7 pm?
    My former home you couldn't get one from Newcastle after 1:30. Then, about seven years ago that was reduced to a single bus to Hexham leaving at 9:30 and coming back at 12.
    On Tuesdays only.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,885
    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    Also, to ensure that rural communities are not just for retirees who want to escape to the country.
  • When I commuted from Hampshire, I had to make sure I left the office latest at 11 because the last train was just before midnight. This is just not a problem for anyone who lives in London itself, where there are so many options.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,356

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I’ve just cancelled membership of a group which meets in the evenings in the nearest town. Now I can no longer use a car it’s completely inaccessible.
    Important point.
    I knew several elderly folk forced to sell up and move when the bus was taken off because they couldn't drive for medical reasons.
    One or two had moved specifically to be near a bus stop in the first place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,182

    When I commuted from Hampshire, I had to make sure I left the office latest at 11 because the last train was just before midnight. This is just not a problem for anyone who lives in London itself, where there are so many options.

    If I worked in an office that required those sort of hours, I think transport would be the least of my reasons for looking elsewhere.

    Teaching may have been absurdly long hours but at least a lot of them could be from home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,411
    edited February 2023
    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
  • You've got to love the "nothing".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,642

    Carnyx said:

    Curious at first that Brsexit is more important for the Labour voters - but on reflection a lot of Tory voters think it is all done anyway. Which does not say much for the latter.
    The latter just happen to understand we have left the EU.

    Which still sticks like a fishbone in the throat of Remainers. Which doesn't say much for them or their acceptance of the democratic will.
    So0 what's all this fuss about NI still being in the EU?

    Doesn't say much for the attitude of Tory Brexiters to Scotland, which had a far bigger majority against Brexit than any nation in the UK had for Brexit.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,885
    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I’ve just cancelled membership of a group which meets in the evenings in the nearest town. Now I can no longer use a car it’s completely inaccessible.
    Important point.
    I knew several elderly folk forced to sell up and move when the bus was taken off because they couldn't drive for medical reasons.
    One or two had moved specifically to be near a bus stop in the first place.
    There should be an extension to the bus pass system so that if someone is no longer able to drive for medical reasons, they can claim the cost of a taxi from their local authority.
  • Bizarre the Tories want to bring up Brexit again, isn't it?

    Voters are saying sort out cost of living, Tories say look over there, Brexit!
    Brexit is a tiny issue for both sides but, to the extent it is one, it's a slightly larger one for the reds.
  • Carnyx said:

    Curious at first that Brsexit is more important for the Labour voters - but on reflection a lot of Tory voters think it is all done anyway. Which does not say much for the latter.
    A few Tory voters have opted for 'nothing', as in: nothing is the most important issue in the UK.
    I love cognitive dissonance.

    It's there for Labour voters too. Have another look.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,182

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I’ve just cancelled membership of a group which meets in the evenings in the nearest town. Now I can no longer use a car it’s completely inaccessible.
    Important point.
    I knew several elderly folk forced to sell up and move when the bus was taken off because they couldn't drive for medical reasons.
    One or two had moved specifically to be near a bus stop in the first place.
    There should be an extension to the bus pass system so that if someone is no longer able to drive for medical reasons, they can claim the cost of a taxi from their local authority.
    Or more services like this one:

    https://forestroutes.org/community-transport/newent-dial-a-ride/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,355
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Chelmsford, Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    Sounds like suburban Essex. We can go to Braintree/Chelmsford or Colchester.
  • stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    In theory, it's the job of local councils to ensure communities aren't isolated by subsidising non profitable bus services.

    But since it's not statutory social care, there's no money to do it.
  • Hurts

    The neo New Wave band? Good shout. I like them too:

    https://youtu.be/7TttjeXZYE8

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,821
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,182
    Cicero said:

    Belarusian exile sources saying that BY Partisans have blown up a Russian AWACS plane on the ground at the Machulishchy Air base south of Mensk/Minsk. Staggering if true. It implies that Belarusian resistance is growing in ways that will deeply worry Putin and his Puppet Lukashenka. Also Russia only has nine of these things, so its loss would be quite a blow.

    Would be great news. Let's see if we get confirmation. I just wonder if it might be the false flag Twatface and Loserschenko were hinting at to give Belarus a pretext for joining the war.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,721
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Hurts

    Newcastle are seriously missing an Alan Shearer or Harry Kane. They play some nice football in midfield, they defend well but the cutting edge is not there. No doubt this will be addressed in the summer.
    Hopefully not by signing Alan Shearer!
    Seriously though. There seems to be a dearth of pure goalscorers worldwide. Is that the influence of a generation growing up under the influence of the false 9 I wonder?
    Its why Haaland stands out so much. If he really did fall out with Pep....
  • When I commuted from Hampshire, I had to make sure I left the office latest at 11 because the last train was just before midnight. This is just not a problem for anyone who lives in London itself, where there are so many options.

    When you commuted?

    I live at the end of that line - the last train leaves Waterloo at 11.23pm and doesn't get into Alton until 00:42.

    A strong way to play the week given you might only get 5 hours sleep before getting up to go back in again the next morning.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,355
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Massive double-deckers are not the answer. 16 or so seaters could well be.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,187
    Cookie said:

    *Do* the Tories do well out of postal voting? Admittedly thus is two decades out of date, but my recollection is that when compulsory postal voting was introduced for the European elections about 2003 ish in certain regions, Labour did disproportionately well in those regions.
    The Tories may get more postal hotes than Labour, but it does not follow from that that a crackdown on postal vote fraud would disproportuonately harm the Tories. We have no way of knowing what proportion of dodgy postal votes (DPVs) favour which party, though the anecdata suggests DPVs are most prevalent in heavily Labour areas like Towr Hamlets.

    Probably it does now favour the Conservatives disproportionately, given how boomers and Generation X have shifted right.

    Back in 2003 postal voting on demand favoured Labour.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,228
    If Starmer is looking to rapidly roll out new solar, onshore and offshore wind he could do worse than consider reforming the planning regs to speed the process up.

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1629140437729525760?s=61&t=YPx0lQ3gzAMlA-LCfpcksQ
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,797
    ydoethur said:

    Cicero said:

    Belarusian exile sources saying that BY Partisans have blown up a Russian AWACS plane on the ground at the Machulishchy Air base south of Mensk/Minsk. Staggering if true. It implies that Belarusian resistance is growing in ways that will deeply worry Putin and his Puppet Lukashenka. Also Russia only has nine of these things, so its loss would be quite a blow.

    Would be great news. Let's see if we get confirmation. I just wonder if it might be the false flag Twatface and Loserschenko were hinting at to give Belarus a pretext for joining the war.
    The more I hear about Belarus the more I conclude that yes Lukashenko wants to be a dictator, but he wants to be a dictator of a country called Belarus, not a Western region of Russia. Could make for an interesting addition to the intra-mafia blood letting when Shoigu, Kadyrov and Prighozhin get going at each other.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,981

    The news comes as insiders say that the party is now “debt- and deficit-free” after facing significant bills for legal action, redundancies and falling membership revenue that left it plunging into the red at the start of last year. It also signals that the race to raise funds before the next election has already begun.

    The Tories cannot rely on Labour being bankrupt anymore.

    I chip in £15 a month. If the flags go I'll double that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,187
    kinabalu said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    The Tories hoover up a lot of elderly votes in care homes etc via postal voting. Incidentally, postal voting is where the actual fraud happens. I'm not sure if these new rules help the Tories or not, but they threaten to create chaos and quite probably violence on election day, and further undermine faith in democracy. Well done, Tories, another spectacular fuck up.
    That's funny because when the Right used to complain about postal voting and the potential (?) fraud happening within certain communities and their 'community leaders', it was told that was just a wildly exaggerated claim and of no substance. Good to see the Left now admitting postal votes do have issues with fraud.
    Voting fraud is a tiny issue in the grand scheme of things electoral and of that tiny issue most of it is postal. So let's crack down on in-person! This is what rankles. Leave it be. Do just postal. Do both. All of these are defensible. They're doing the one thing that isn't.
    Voter intimidation - in some places like Tower Hamlets - ought to be the focus. Cllr Peter Golds has detailed party workers accompanying people into the polling station, and husbands checking their wives’ ballot papers.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,119
    kjh said:

    Well I have just made a valiant effort to set fire to my house. Threw a log onto my newly lit stove and I had burning cones all over my carpet.

    Whoops.

    My best effort in that direction was leaving a gas hob ring burning all night. Luckily nothing fell on it...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,187

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    The Tories hoover up a lot of elderly votes in care homes etc via postal voting. Incidentally, postal voting is where the actual fraud happens. I'm not sure if these new rules help the Tories or not, but they threaten to create chaos and quite probably violence on election day, and further undermine faith in democracy. Well done, Tories, another spectacular fuck up.
    That's funny because when the Right used to complain about postal voting and the potential (?) fraud happening within certain communities and their 'community leaders', it was told that was just a wildly exaggerated claim and of no substance. Good to see the Left now admitting postal votes do have issues with fraud.
    The Tories have had 12 years to fix postal voting, but they haven't because more of their voters vote by post. I think there are shenanigans on all sides around postal voting TBH. Personation, on the other hand, is an almost non existent problem. It's going to be chaos on general election day. A lot of very angry people will feel utterly disenfranchised.
    I think the difference on polling day will be almost imperceptible.
  • ydoethur said:

    Cicero said:

    Belarusian exile sources saying that BY Partisans have blown up a Russian AWACS plane on the ground at the Machulishchy Air base south of Mensk/Minsk. Staggering if true. It implies that Belarusian resistance is growing in ways that will deeply worry Putin and his Puppet Lukashenka. Also Russia only has nine of these things, so its loss would be quite a blow.

    Would be great news. Let's see if we get confirmation. I just wonder if it might be the false flag Twatface and Loserschenko were hinting at to give Belarus a pretext for joining the war.
    Lukashenko needs his best troops in Minsk to guard his palace.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,737
    It's all over for Humza. Game-changing endorsement for Kate.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1629813929533734913
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,381

    ydoethur said:

    Cicero said:

    Belarusian exile sources saying that BY Partisans have blown up a Russian AWACS plane on the ground at the Machulishchy Air base south of Mensk/Minsk. Staggering if true. It implies that Belarusian resistance is growing in ways that will deeply worry Putin and his Puppet Lukashenka. Also Russia only has nine of these things, so its loss would be quite a blow.

    Would be great news. Let's see if we get confirmation. I just wonder if it might be the false flag Twatface and Loserschenko were hinting at to give Belarus a pretext for joining the war.
    Lukashenko needs his best troops in Minsk to guard his palace.
    He needs his most loyal troops. It's no good having his best troops if they turn on him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,411
    edited February 2023
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Unfortunately it is largely down to lack of demand. Most people living in rural areas are either retired pensioners or farmers. They just don't need to go to the nearest town or city more than once or twice a week.

    Hence the bus companies won't do more regular services, unless more families where the parents commute to work in the city and the children go to secondary school in the nearest town move there
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,885

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Massive double-deckers are not the answer. 16 or so seaters could well be.
    We are lucky to have a subsidised evening bus service. During the day it is single deckers. The evening service is double deckers, allegedly because they are more economical and because the drivers prefer them!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,981

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader for starters!
    Don't put yourself down like that mate, you're not weird at all.
    I don't think HY's putting himself down but he is a bit weird.

    Tbf, we all are on here.
    True. I've tried to explain this site to various Muggles and they never get it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,821
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    The Tories hoover up a lot of elderly votes in care homes etc via postal voting. Incidentally, postal voting is where the actual fraud happens. I'm not sure if these new rules help the Tories or not, but they threaten to create chaos and quite probably violence on election day, and further undermine faith in democracy. Well done, Tories, another spectacular fuck up.
    That's funny because when the Right used to complain about postal voting and the potential (?) fraud happening within certain communities and their 'community leaders', it was told that was just a wildly exaggerated claim and of no substance. Good to see the Left now admitting postal votes do have issues with fraud.
    Voting fraud is a tiny issue in the grand scheme of things electoral and of that tiny issue most of it is postal. So let's crack down on in-person! This is what rankles. Leave it be. Do just postal. Do both. All of these are defensible. They're doing the one thing that isn't.
    Voter intimidation - in some places like Tower Hamlets - ought to be the focus. Cllr Peter Golds has detailed party workers accompanying people into the polling station, and husbands checking their wives’ ballot papers.
    Yes and it's a serious issue in some Wards in that Borough but that doesn't need the widespread change to the voting system the current Government has instigated - indeed, I very much doubt whether anything in the current measures would stop what happens in Tower Hamlets.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,330
    ydoethur said:

    When I commuted from Hampshire, I had to make sure I left the office latest at 11 because the last train was just before midnight. This is just not a problem for anyone who lives in London itself, where there are so many options.

    If I worked in an office that required those sort of hours, I think transport would be the least of my reasons for looking elsewhere.

    Teaching may have been absurdly long hours but at least a lot of them could be from home.
    I've not done one of those types of jobs but my friend does one like that, he was staying in the office until 2-3am doing tax returns on some evenings, he is a tax advisor. He told me about 10 years ago that he was expecting to earn 250k before tax when he became a partner, which he did in his early 30s.

    It is probably worth it if you are going to earn that much money (although it does beg the question what is the point, it is more money than you can surely ever spend). Unfortunately though there is a bit of a game whereby a firms exploit people in to working those type of hours with no realistic opportunity of ever earning anywhere near that type of money.
  • It's all over for Humza. Game-changing endorsement for Kate.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1629813929533734913

    A great quote: "The teaching of Christ is not about how to order ferries."
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Unfortunately it is largely down to lack of demand. Most people living in rural areas are either retired pensioners or farmers. They just don't need to go to the nearest town or city more than once or twice a week.

    Hence the bus companies won't do more regular services, unless more families where the parents commute to work in the city and the children go to secondary school in the nearest town move there
    The problem is "rural" is increasingly "anything outside a city".

    Even a bus to a commuter town a relatively short distance outside a city is at high risk now. And it's not just farmers and pensioners using those.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,182
    edited February 2023

    It's all over for Humza. Game-changing endorsement for Kate.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1629813929533734913

    Proof, if proof were needed, that he's an idiot. He should have held that back until *after* she'd won - and then watched the SNP tear itself apart over his endorsement...

    (to be fair to him - not something that comes easily, given how big a fool he is - he does seem to genuinely principled about some things. The right of religion to be in the public sphere is one. The right to trial by jury, regardless of his views on a verdict, would be another.)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,355
    edited February 2023

    It's all over for Humza. Game-changing endorsement for Kate.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1629813929533734913

    A great quote: "The teaching of Christ is not about how to order ferries."
    JR-M’s endorsement, alone, ought to be enough to do for her!
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,119
    darkage said:

    I've not done one of those types of jobs but my friend does one like that, he was staying in the office until 2-3am doing tax returns on some evenings, he is a tax advisor.

    I imagine tax advisor also has a super-busy season and is a lot quieter the rest of the year. You might put up with late nights in March if you got to take it much easier most of the rest of the year (though it's not a choice I'd make personally either way).

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,411
    edited February 2023

    It's all over for Humza. Game-changing endorsement for Kate.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1629813929533734913

    Jacob Rees Mogg seems keener on Kate Forbes than Lord Hague in that article
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,182
    HYUFD said:

    It's all over for Humza. Game-changing endorsement for Kate.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1629813929533734913

    Jacob Rees Mogg seems keener on Kate Forbes than Lord Hague in that article
    Hague was a Remainer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,411

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Unfortunately it is largely down to lack of demand. Most people living in rural areas are either retired pensioners or farmers. They just don't need to go to the nearest town or city more than once or twice a week.

    Hence the bus companies won't do more regular services, unless more families where the parents commute to work in the city and the children go to secondary school in the nearest town move there
    The problem is "rural" is increasingly "anything outside a city".

    Even a bus to a commuter town a relatively short distance outside a city is at high risk now. And it's not just farmers and pensioners using those.
    Albeit most commuter towns still have a railway station which most villages and rural areas don't
  • Taz said:

    If Starmer is looking to rapidly roll out new solar, onshore and offshore wind he could do worse than consider reforming the planning regs to speed the process up.

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1629140437729525760?s=61&t=YPx0lQ3gzAMlA-LCfpcksQ

    Lots of details and tradeoffs to work out, but I don't see how Britain prospers without massive loosening and speeding up of the planning system.

    And given who votes for each party, I don't see how the Conservatives do the necessary reform.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,885
    Sean_F said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    The Tories hoover up a lot of elderly votes in care homes etc via postal voting. Incidentally, postal voting is where the actual fraud happens. I'm not sure if these new rules help the Tories or not, but they threaten to create chaos and quite probably violence on election day, and further undermine faith in democracy. Well done, Tories, another spectacular fuck up.
    That's funny because when the Right used to complain about postal voting and the potential (?) fraud happening within certain communities and their 'community leaders', it was told that was just a wildly exaggerated claim and of no substance. Good to see the Left now admitting postal votes do have issues with fraud.
    The Tories have had 12 years to fix postal voting, but they haven't because more of their voters vote by post. I think there are shenanigans on all sides around postal voting TBH. Personation, on the other hand, is an almost non existent problem. It's going to be chaos on general election day. A lot of very angry people will feel utterly disenfranchised.
    I think the difference on polling day will be almost imperceptible.
    Voters who are interested enough to vote in local elections may well be clued up enough to have organised their ID. Negative reactions may be more evident at the next GE when less engaged voters try to vote, only to be told that they should have known, as ID has been in place for two years.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,725
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Hurts

    Newcastle are seriously missing an Alan Shearer or Harry Kane. They play some nice football in midfield, they defend well but the cutting edge is not there. No doubt this will be addressed in the summer.
    If they don’t get champions league football, and that no longer looks likely, they will struggle to get the sort of player they need.
    Arguably already there in Isak - but struggled with injuries.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,355
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Unfortunately it is largely down to lack of demand. Most people living in rural areas are either retired pensioners or farmers. They just don't need to go to the nearest town or city more than once or twice a week.

    Hence the bus companies won't do more regular services, unless more families where the parents commute to work in the city and the children go to secondary school in the nearest town move there
    The problem is "rural" is increasingly "anything outside a city".

    Even a bus to a commuter town a relatively short distance outside a city is at high risk now. And it's not just farmers and pensioners using those.
    Albeit most commuter towns still have a railway station which most villages and rural areas don't
    I realise you wrote ‘most’ but the town where I live now doesn’t have a station. Nor does another not far away.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Unfortunately it is largely down to lack of demand. Most people living in rural areas are either retired pensioners or farmers. They just don't need to go to the nearest town or city more than once or twice a week.

    Hence the bus companies won't do more regular services, unless more families where the parents commute to work in the city and the children go to secondary school in the nearest town move there
    The problem is "rural" is increasingly "anything outside a city".

    Even a bus to a commuter town a relatively short distance outside a city is at high risk now. And it's not just farmers and pensioners using those.
    Albeit most commuter towns still have a railway station which most villages and rural areas don't
    I realise you wrote ‘most’ but the town where I live now doesn’t have a station. Nor does another not far away.
    Same here.
  • You are probably right about local vs general election but even though I vote in local elections and frequent this clued-up site, I was not aware of voter authority certificates till I stumbled across them a couple of weeks ago.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,885
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Unfortunately it is largely down to lack of demand. Most people living in rural areas are either retired pensioners or farmers. They just don't need to go to the nearest town or city more than once or twice a week.

    Hence the bus companies won't do more regular services, unless more families where the parents commute to work in the city and the children go to secondary school in the nearest town move there
    The problem is "rural" is increasingly "anything outside a city".

    Even a bus to a commuter town a relatively short distance outside a city is at high risk now. And it's not just farmers and pensioners using those.
    Albeit most commuter towns still have a railway station which most villages and rural areas don't
    Any PB nerds, I am told that they do exist, should go to https://timetableworld.com/ and compare the service provided to their community 50 years ago with that provided now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,411
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's all over for Humza. Game-changing endorsement for Kate.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1629813929533734913

    Jacob Rees Mogg seems keener on Kate Forbes than Lord Hague in that article
    Hague was a Remainer.
    He also backed Sunak
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,228

    Taz said:

    If Starmer is looking to rapidly roll out new solar, onshore and offshore wind he could do worse than consider reforming the planning regs to speed the process up.

    https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1629140437729525760?s=61&t=YPx0lQ3gzAMlA-LCfpcksQ

    Lots of details and tradeoffs to work out, but I don't see how Britain prospers without massive loosening and speeding up of the planning system.

    And given who votes for each party, I don't see how the Conservatives do the necessary reform.
    This from the same twitter feed. They did it in Spain. Could we do it here ? I’m not hopeful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,411
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    There's a serious issue about the provision of public transport to rural and semi-rural areas. There's a statistic about the reduction in bus services outside London which is remarkable.

    Not being able to get a bus back to the village after 7pm has economic and cultural impacts. The young leave and the village becomes increasingly remote for those not in possession of a car.

    Perhaps it's time to get past this absurd notion of providing transport services for and at a profit and emphasise public need so communities aren't left isolated.

    I now live in rural Essex. There is literally one bus a day here to Ongar, Harlow or Epping
    It's clear from you and other contributors there is a problem. What then is the solution? How would you increase services or do we need to think about other forms of community-accessible transport beyond buses?
    Unfortunately it is largely down to lack of demand. Most people living in rural areas are either retired pensioners or farmers. They just don't need to go to the nearest town or city more than once or twice a week.

    Hence the bus companies won't do more regular services, unless more families where the parents commute to work in the city and the children go to secondary school in the nearest town move there
    The problem is "rural" is increasingly "anything outside a city".

    Even a bus to a commuter town a relatively short distance outside a city is at high risk now. And it's not just farmers and pensioners using those.
    Albeit most commuter towns still have a railway station which most villages and rural areas don't
    I realise you wrote ‘most’ but the town where I live now doesn’t have a station. Nor does another not far away.
    For which blame Beeching.

    Almost all towns with populations over 25,000 will have a station still however
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,261
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's all over for Humza. Game-changing endorsement for Kate.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1629813929533734913

    Jacob Rees Mogg seems keener on Kate Forbes than Lord Hague in that article
    Hague was a Remainer.
    He also backed Sunak
    He also lost 2 elections.

    Is JRM not meant to disagree with him?
This discussion has been closed.