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The local elections could be tainted – politicalbetting.com

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Leon said:

    France scraping home. But Scotland have silenced Paris

    Moral victory for Scotland

    Stupendous timing again as La Marseillaise echoes round the Stade de France.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    The Tories hoover up a lot of elderly votes in care homes etc via postal voting. Incidentally, postal voting is where the actual fraud happens. I'm not sure if these new rules help the Tories or not, but they threaten to create chaos and quite probably violence on election day, and further undermine faith in democracy. Well done, Tories, another spectacular fuck up.
    That's funny because when the Right used to complain about postal voting and the potential (?) fraud happening within certain communities and their 'community leaders', it was told that was just a wildly exaggerated claim and of no substance. Good to see the Left now admitting postal votes do have issues with fraud.
    Nobody has ever said fraud doesn't happen. What we've said is that it is such a small problem that does not in anyway justify the actions the Tories have taken.
    Many moons ago, electoral fraud was being debated on PB. A number of people took the view that it “doesn’t happen here”

    At that moment, news came in of the police catching a couple of councillors red handed, in Birmingham, running an fraudulent vote factory (literally - a lockup garage with printing, couple of people doing the work) with enough votes to swing the council election in that ward.

    The tune changed to “it doesn’t happen here, for national elections”. Without missing a beat.
    I wasn't saying that, as I said above. It's not a big enough issue for the actions to have been taken, to be justified.

    Let's be honest, if Labour had implemented this you would oppose it.
    I’ve actually argued for improving U.K. election security to generally accepted standards for decades.

    When people say that it isn’t a big problem, I recall the effort the police took to *not* record my flatmate having his vote stolen as a crime.

    If you put that much effort into not seeing a problem….
    There are much better things they could do than this. As I said, if this was Labour you would oppose it.
    IIRC, It was going to be introduced at the same time as the equivalent Northern Ireland changes, but it got dropped. Which would have put it under New Labour.
    Would have been a bad policy then. As now.
    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Two more than decent games of rugby on free to air TV today - Cas v Saints in the League was on C4 before ScoFra. Poor old Cas couldn’t catch a break, certainly not the ball.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    TimS said:

    Interesting things happening in the North Atlantic at the moment which could have outsized implications for inflation, tomato/turnip stocks and the war. After a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic last week we’re seeing a new weather regime from the end of next week but it could either be very cold for a long time, or pretty warm. The models keep flipping.

    Here’s a model showing a warmer outlook (the European model from this morning)



    And here’s a cold one (the US model this afternoon)



    Gas storage levels in Europe were at 71% at the start of this month (they’ll be lower now) and the rundown goes on typically until end of March before they start refilling for next winter. It isn’t going to be easy even with a mild spring. If March is very cold then we’ll start at a lower level. If the cold plunge happens expect to see tightening and price rises. Bad for inflation, good for Russia’s solvency. And the cold plunge is also bad for the poly tunnels of Southern Europe.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/healthy-gas-storage-warms-europe-not-enough-2023-02-23/

    I quite fancy doing a header on weather and politics because there’s a lot of it around currently. How does one go about doing that?

    Are they starting a rundown of storage?

    Given events, it is entirely possible that policy has changed - to keep storage full. At least for longer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    edited February 2023
    56% of UK voters and 47% of Scots would refuse to back a politician who opposed homosexual marriage for religious reasons, 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed abortion after rape, as would 69% of Scots and 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed pre marital sex as would 71% of Scots a new Redfield poll shows. The poll will be a blow to the Forbes camp though does show Scots fractionally more socially conservative than voters in England and Wales, especially on homosexual marriage

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11789483/Grim-sign-Kate-Forbess-SNP-campaign-Brits-refuse-vote-anti-gay-marriage-politicians.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309

    Leon said:

    France scraping home. But Scotland have silenced Paris

    Moral victory for Scotland

    Stupendous timing again as La Marseillaise echoes round the Stade de France.
    Only right at the end. Stade de France was pin drop quiet for most of the 2nd half. Bad luck Scotland
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    HYUFD said:

    56% of UK voters and 47% of Scots would refuse to back a politician who opposed homosexual marriage for religious reasons, 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed abortion after rape, as would 69% of Scots and 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed pre marital sex as would 71% of Scots a new Redfield poll shows. The poll will be a blow to the Forbes camp though does show Scots fractionally more socially conservative than voters in England and Wales

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11789483/Grim-sign-Kate-Forbess-SNP-campaign-Brits-refuse-vote-anti-gay-marriage-politicians.html

    69 vs 71 is MOE, surely?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940

    HYUFD said:

    56% of UK voters and 47% of Scots would refuse to back a politician who opposed homosexual marriage for religious reasons, 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed abortion after rape, as would 69% of Scots and 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed pre marital sex as would 71% of Scots a new Redfield poll shows. The poll will be a blow to the Forbes camp though does show Scots fractionally more socially conservative than voters in England and Wales

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11789483/Grim-sign-Kate-Forbess-SNP-campaign-Brits-refuse-vote-anti-gay-marriage-politicians.html

    69 vs 71 is MOE, surely?
    56% v 47% isn't
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    TimS said:

    Interesting things happening in the North Atlantic at the moment which could have outsized implications for inflation, tomato/turnip stocks and the war. After a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic last week we’re seeing a new weather regime from the end of next week but it could either be very cold for a long time, or pretty warm. The models keep flipping.

    Here’s a model showing a warmer outlook (the European model from this morning)



    And here’s a cold one (the US model this afternoon)



    Gas storage levels in Europe were at 71% at the start of this month (they’ll be lower now) and the rundown goes on typically until end of March before they start refilling for next winter. It isn’t going to be easy even with a mild spring. If March is very cold then we’ll start at a lower level. If the cold plunge happens expect to see tightening and price rises. Bad for inflation, good for Russia’s solvency. And the cold plunge is also bad for the poly tunnels of Southern Europe.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/healthy-gas-storage-warms-europe-not-enough-2023-02-23/

    I quite fancy doing a header on weather and politics because there’s a lot of it around currently. How does one go about doing that?

    I really enjoy the Met Office's "Deep Dive" videos going into their modelling of near-ish-future weather. Though I do admit to a bit of 'dashboard envy' at some of their screens. This was the last one and went into a bit of detail about the SSW :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eS7zkbjKVfE
  • Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871
    No one advocates dismembering Russia we just want it to stay within russian borders and stop fucking invading people
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France scraping home. But Scotland have silenced Paris

    Moral victory for Scotland

    Stupendous timing again as La Marseillaise echoes round the Stade de France.
    Only right at the end. Stade de France was pin drop quiet for most of the 2nd half. Bad luck Scotland
    True, I was just acknowledging the jinx you put on Scotland at the end there.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,145
    'Rashford to score' is the betting equivalent of a gilt. Modest return but guaranteed.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
    Quite frankly if you cant organise photo id your vote probably isn't something considered where you have looked at all sides and gone oh what I think best for the country is to vote for x.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    56% of UK voters and 47% of Scots would refuse to back a politician who opposed homosexual marriage for religious reasons, 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed abortion after rape, as would 69% of Scots and 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed pre marital sex as would 71% of Scots a new Redfield poll shows. The poll will be a blow to the Forbes camp though does show Scots fractionally more socially conservative than voters in England and Wales

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11789483/Grim-sign-Kate-Forbess-SNP-campaign-Brits-refuse-vote-anti-gay-marriage-politicians.html

    69 vs 71 is MOE, surely?
    Also, it's one thing to object to it, but quite another if it is already law of the land.

    Edit: the real question to ask would be about trans stuff. That is what is in question.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
    Which PR system do you want, and why?
  • Luciana will not stand in Islington North.

    I hope she will be back on the front bench soon.

    Any inkling of where she may stand?
    A London seat so I understand it
    Finchley again, maybe?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    TimS said:

    Interesting things happening in the North Atlantic at the moment which could have outsized implications for inflation, tomato/turnip stocks and the war. After a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic last week we’re seeing a new weather regime from the end of next week but it could either be very cold for a long time, or pretty warm. The models keep flipping.

    Here’s a model showing a warmer outlook (the European model from this morning)



    And here’s a cold one (the US model this afternoon)



    Gas storage levels in Europe were at 71% at the start of this month (they’ll be lower now) and the rundown goes on typically until end of March before they start refilling for next winter. It isn’t going to be easy even with a mild spring. If March is very cold then we’ll start at a lower level. If the cold plunge happens expect to see tightening and price rises. Bad for inflation, good for Russia’s solvency. And the cold plunge is also bad for the poly tunnels of Southern Europe.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/healthy-gas-storage-warms-europe-not-enough-2023-02-23/

    I quite fancy doing a header on weather and politics because there’s a lot of it around currently. How does one go about doing that?

    Presumably there's enough in those models for certain "newspapers" in this country to maintain the continuous stream of "EXACT DATE Britain to be covered in FEET of SNOW due to -12C POLAR BLAST as BEAST FROM THE EAST returns" nonsense online clickbait articles that have been going on daily since, oh, October last year.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,145

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Cars are losing appeal, though, esp here in London. The main thing you need them for is golf - which most young people don't play.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Pagan2 said:

    No one advocates dismembering Russia we just want it to stay within russian borders and stop fucking invading people
    I've seen quite a few suggestions on here to the effect that Russia needs to be broken up to prevent a recurrence of aggression in the future.

    A truly satisfactory solution to the 'Russia problem' ensures that aggression is not an issue in the future. I can see that might involve dismantling the Russian Federation. At the very least it requires Russia being transformed as radically as Germany and Japan were after WW2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    56% of UK voters and 47% of Scots would refuse to back a politician who opposed homosexual marriage for religious reasons, 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed abortion after rape, as would 69% of Scots and 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed pre marital sex as would 71% of Scots a new Redfield poll shows. The poll will be a blow to the Forbes camp though does show Scots fractionally more socially conservative than voters in England and Wales

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11789483/Grim-sign-Kate-Forbess-SNP-campaign-Brits-refuse-vote-anti-gay-marriage-politicians.html

    69 vs 71 is MOE, surely?
    Also, it's one thing to object to it, but quite another if it is already law of the land.

    Edit: the real question to ask would be about trans stuff. That is what is in question.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gender-reforms-rejected-by-voters-in-scotland-and-england-poll-finds-887k6jmpn
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Cars are losing appeal, though, esp here in London. The main thing you need them for is golf - which most young people don't play.
    Yes, but all the young people I know of still want a driving license - they see it as a life skill. There has been a big uptick of the car-by-the-minute-rental services, round my area.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    56% of UK voters and 47% of Scots would refuse to back a politician who opposed homosexual marriage for religious reasons, 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed abortion after rape, as would 69% of Scots and 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed pre marital sex as would 71% of Scots a new Redfield poll shows. The poll will be a blow to the Forbes camp though does show Scots fractionally more socially conservative than voters in England and Wales

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11789483/Grim-sign-Kate-Forbess-SNP-campaign-Brits-refuse-vote-anti-gay-marriage-politicians.html

    69 vs 71 is MOE, surely?
    Also, it's one thing to object to it, but quite another if it is already law of the land.

    Edit: the real question to ask would be about trans stuff. That is what is in question.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gender-reforms-rejected-by-voters-in-scotland-and-england-poll-finds-887k6jmpn
    Paywalled.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    TimS said:

    Interesting things happening in the North Atlantic at the moment which could have outsized implications for inflation, tomato/turnip stocks and the war. After a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic last week we’re seeing a new weather regime from the end of next week but it could either be very cold for a long time, or pretty warm. The models keep flipping.

    Here’s a model showing a warmer outlook (the European model from this morning)



    And here’s a cold one (the US model this afternoon)



    Gas storage levels in Europe were at 71% at the start of this month (they’ll be lower now) and the rundown goes on typically until end of March before they start refilling for next winter. It isn’t going to be easy even with a mild spring. If March is very cold then we’ll start at a lower level. If the cold plunge happens expect to see tightening and price rises. Bad for inflation, good for Russia’s solvency. And the cold plunge is also bad for the poly tunnels of Southern Europe.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/healthy-gas-storage-warms-europe-not-enough-2023-02-23/

    I quite fancy doing a header on weather and politics because there’s a lot of it around currently. How does one go about doing that?

    Presumably there's enough in those models for certain "newspapers" in this country to maintain the continuous stream of "EXACT DATE Britain to be covered in FEET of SNOW due to -12C POLAR BLAST as BEAST FROM THE EAST returns" nonsense online clickbait articles that have been going on daily since, oh, October last year.
    We could of course just settle the uncertainty by asking Leondamus.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,145
    Pagan2 said:

    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
    Quite frankly if you cant organise photo id your vote probably isn't something considered where you have looked at all sides and gone oh what I think best for the country is to vote for x.
    Slippery slope there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    56% of UK voters and 47% of Scots would refuse to back a politician who opposed homosexual marriage for religious reasons, 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed abortion after rape, as would 69% of Scots and 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed pre marital sex as would 71% of Scots a new Redfield poll shows. The poll will be a blow to the Forbes camp though does show Scots fractionally more socially conservative than voters in England and Wales

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11789483/Grim-sign-Kate-Forbess-SNP-campaign-Brits-refuse-vote-anti-gay-marriage-politicians.html

    69 vs 71 is MOE, surely?
    Also, it's one thing to object to it, but quite another if it is already law of the land.

    Edit: the real question to ask would be about trans stuff. That is what is in question.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gender-reforms-rejected-by-voters-in-scotland-and-england-poll-finds-887k6jmpn
    Paywalled.
    'It found that 62 per cent of people opposed allowing people to legally declare as a certain sex without a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria while 22 per cent were in favour and 19 per cent did not know. In Scotland 63 per cent opposed the plan, albeit on a limited sample number, with 22 per cent in favour and 15 per cent not sure.

    On the question of whether the Westminster government was right to block the law 42 per cent said they were while 15 per cent said they were wrong. Nine per cent said the Scottish government changes were wrong but the UK government should not block them while 8 per cent said they were right — but the UK had an obligation to stop them because of the wider constitutional implications.'
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gender-reforms-rejected-by-voters-in-scotland-and-england-poll-finds-887k6jmpn
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Steve Baker seen walking out of No.10 giving a thumbs up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Pagan2 said:

    No one advocates dismembering Russia we just want it to stay within russian borders and stop fucking invading people
    I've seen quite a few suggestions on here to the effect that Russia needs to be broken up to prevent a recurrence of aggression in the future.

    A truly satisfactory solution to the 'Russia problem' ensures that aggression is not an issue in the future. I can see that might involve dismantling the Russian Federation. At the very least it requires Russia being transformed as radically as Germany and Japan were after WW2.
    I'd put it like this: the west don't *want* to dismember Russia, as it might lead to unnecessary complications. But what they do want is for Russia to pull out of Ukraine, as the war is leading to more immediate complications.

    If Russia pulling out of Ukraine leads to Russia splitting, then the west will have to deal with that new reality - and such a split is wholly in Russia's hands, not the west's. The fear of a Russia dismemberment - and the dangers that causes - are less dangerous and immediate than the current war.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    https://twitter.com/elonmusgraves/status/1629631690493575169?s=46&t=lhCF2QRKHWO0oSkyyR-Y2Q

    forbes+2 with SNP voters (who are low information, not all that plugged in and this fieldwork will have been immediately at the start of her campaign mess) almost certainly translates to a humza lead with actual members
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Pagan2 said:

    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
    Quite frankly if you cant organise photo id your vote probably isn't something considered where you have looked at all sides and gone oh what I think best for the country is to vote for x.
    If you look at the list of acceptable forms of ID, then if you don't have a passport or driving licence, and if you aren't over 60 or disabled (or in many cases if you are), you are in all probability going to have to apply specially for photo ID in order to vote.

    Should people have to do that to vote? And more to the point, hoe many people are aware that they will need to do that?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    56% of UK voters and 47% of Scots would refuse to back a politician who opposed homosexual marriage for religious reasons, 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed abortion after rape, as would 69% of Scots and 71% would refuse to back a politician who opposed pre marital sex as would 71% of Scots a new Redfield poll shows. The poll will be a blow to the Forbes camp though does show Scots fractionally more socially conservative than voters in England and Wales

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11789483/Grim-sign-Kate-Forbess-SNP-campaign-Brits-refuse-vote-anti-gay-marriage-politicians.html

    69 vs 71 is MOE, surely?
    Also, it's one thing to object to it, but quite another if it is already law of the land.

    Edit: the real question to ask would be about trans stuff. That is what is in question.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gender-reforms-rejected-by-voters-in-scotland-and-england-poll-finds-887k6jmpn
    Paywalled.
    'It found that 62 per cent of people opposed allowing people to legally declare as a certain sex without a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria while 22 per cent were in favour and 19 per cent did not know. In Scotland 63 per cent opposed the plan, albeit on a limited sample number, with 22 per cent in favour and 15 per cent not sure.

    On the question of whether the Westminster government was right to block the law 42 per cent said they were while 15 per cent said they were wrong. Nine per cent said the Scottish government changes were wrong but the UK government should not block them while 8 per cent said they were right — but the UK had an obligation to stop them because of the wider constitutional implications.'
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gender-reforms-rejected-by-voters-in-scotland-and-england-poll-finds-887k6jmpn
    Thanks for that. *Very* different from asking about something done and dusted.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765

    Pagan2 said:

    No one advocates dismembering Russia we just want it to stay within russian borders and stop fucking invading people
    I've seen quite a few suggestions on here to the effect that Russia needs to be broken up to prevent a recurrence of aggression in the future.

    A truly satisfactory solution to the 'Russia problem' ensures that aggression is not an issue in the future. I can see that might involve dismantling the Russian Federation. At the very least it requires Russia being transformed as radically as Germany and Japan were after WW2.
    Japan changed after WW2 because the unimaginable (for the Japanese) had happened. The Imperial forces were beaten, and (far worse) totally demoralised. The Emporer seemed to have the odd fault. Unchalleged aggression was happening on a daily basis.

    Nothing like this is happening to Russia, but in order for the stupidity that is today's Russia to go away we need much the same to happen to them.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765

    Steve Baker seen walking out of No.10 giving a thumbs up.

    Baker seems to have become a little more responsible since his appointment to a government role. (Previously it would have spelled doom!)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    edited February 2023
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    edited February 2023

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
  • Chris said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
    Quite frankly if you cant organise photo id your vote probably isn't something considered where you have looked at all sides and gone oh what I think best for the country is to vote for x.
    If you look at the list of acceptable forms of ID, then if you don't have a passport or driving licence, and if you aren't over 60 or disabled (or in many cases if you are), you are in all probability going to have to apply specially for photo ID in order to vote.

    Should people have to do that to vote? And more to the point, hoe many people are aware that they will need to do that?
    Why if you are over 60 does it not apply? This is where people who think it is designed to impact the young have a point.
  • kinabalu said:

    'Rashford to score' is the betting equivalent of a gilt. Modest return but guaranteed.

    His goal has been awarded as an own goal
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Pagan2 said:

    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
    Quite frankly if you cant organise photo id your vote probably isn't something considered where you have looked at all sides and gone oh what I think best for the country is to vote for x.
    You make a valid point and if we had always required ID I would not object to it BUT why introduce a measure that has no beneficial impact and will cause chaos (because people aren't used to it) yet completely ignore an actual fraud (postal votes) that is actually happening?
  • rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there. Car owners typically have driving licenses.

    The young and the poor are the least like to have cars, and are also the least likely to vote Conservative.

    There was polling evidence of this produced last year.

    Personally, I am unbelievably cynical of this move in isolation. If it was part of a package to improve election security that involved tightening up postal voting, or if one of the various measures to allow those at the polls who didn't bring ID to post provisional votes (or equivalent) was implemented, then I'd feel differently. But the current measures feel awfully partisan.
    By the same token, expanding ownership should increase Toryism.

    So, the logical thing for the Conservatives to do is to make it easier for young people to own cars and houses, and lower their tax bills.

    It's remarkable they haven't figured this out.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    I was convinced until the 'and'.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    HYUFD thinks anyone who doesn't vote Tory now "is a bit weird". For example he doesn't give a toss about my Mum and Dad who have abandoned the party after 40 years.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Chris said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
    Quite frankly if you cant organise photo id your vote probably isn't something considered where you have looked at all sides and gone oh what I think best for the country is to vote for x.
    If you look at the list of acceptable forms of ID, then if you don't have a passport or driving licence, and if you aren't over 60 or disabled (or in many cases if you are), you are in all probability going to have to apply specially for photo ID in order to vote.

    Should people have to do that to vote? And more to the point, hoe many people are aware that they will need to do that?
    Why if you are over 60 does it not apply? This is where people who think it is designed to impact the young have a point.
    I mean that apart from the driving licence and passport there are various other forms of acceptable photo ID that the disabled and over 60s may have, but precious few for other people.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    I think we are roughly the same age.
    In the mid 90s, youthful Tory voting was unusual but not completely so.

    Nowadays if you met an 18 year old voting Tory you’d assume they had a mental health disorder.

    I’m not even joking.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    Yes you are, you are a private school and Cambridge educated George Osborne lover who wears red shoes
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Why? A similar policy in Northern Ireland didn’t affect voters. Well, the live, existing ones.

    It was fairly Thanatophobic, though.

    Because it solves an essentially non-existent problem (it has never impacted the result of any election) and makes it harder for people to vote.

    If you're willing to make changes to the voting system, why don't we introduce PR to make votes representative. But somehow I don't think you'll be signing up for that, will you?
    Quite frankly if you cant organise photo id your vote probably isn't something considered where you have looked at all sides and gone oh what I think best for the country is to vote for x.
    If you look at the list of acceptable forms of ID, then if you don't have a passport or driving licence, and if you aren't over 60 or disabled (or in many cases if you are), you are in all probability going to have to apply specially for photo ID in order to vote.

    Should people have to do that to vote? And more to the point, hoe many people are aware that they will need to do that?
    Why if you are over 60 does it not apply? This is where people who think it is designed to impact the young have a point.
    I mean that apart from the driving licence and passport there are various other forms of acceptable photo ID that the disabled and over 60s may have, but precious few for other people.
    That is my point, it isn't evenly applied.

    If they let young people use railcards say, or had a year long campaign for them to apply for ID, I could accept it but the way the policy comes across is if you're young and don't notice the Government go "tough luck" whereas if you're elderly they bend over backwards to allow you to vote with anything you already have.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    I think we are roughly the same age.
    In the mid 90s, youthful Tory voting was unusual but not completely so.

    Nowadays if you met an 18 year old voting Tory you’d assume they had a mental health disorder.

    I’m not even joking.
    Yes.

    I popped my general election cherry in 1997.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    I was convinced until the 'and'.
    Harsh but fair.
  • Thatcher won the youth vote.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    To the extent voter ID is an issue at all, it's easily solvable by printing a code on the polling card sent to people's houses. You either bring the card with you to the polling place where the code number is checked, you quote the code on postal votes or you present ID if for some reason you can't get hold of your card. It would even deal with postal vote fraud.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    HYUFD thinks anyone who doesn't vote Tory now "is a bit weird". For example he doesn't give a toss about my Mum and Dad who have abandoned the party after 40 years.
    That doesn't say much, just they are Tory leaning swing voters who may vote Labour when Labour well ahead in polls
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    Yes you are, you are a private school and Cambridge educated George Osborne lover who wears red shoes
    Haha - when you put it like that....
  • HYUFD said:

    That doesn't say much, just they are Tory leaning swing voters who may vote Labour when Labour well ahead in polls

    How is somebody who voted Tory at every election for 40 years possibly counted as "Tory leaning"?

    They will never vote Labour. They will however vote Lib Dem at protest of your nutty friends putting Johnson into power and then Truss crashing the Pound.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    Yes you are, you are a private school and Cambridge educated George Osborne lover who wears red shoes
    @HYUFD - I think it's entirely sensible to vote the same way irrespective of your age. The colour of your shoes clearly doesn't matter, and if you have to choose red then you'll be making a nod towards a first class British film.
  • FF43 said:

    To the extent voter ID is an issue at all, it's easily solvable by printing a code on the polling card sent to people's houses. You either bring the card with you to the polling place where the code number is checked, you quote the code on postal votes or you present ID if for some reason you can't get hold of your card. It would even deal with postal vote fraud.

    Yes but the point is that this is common sense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940

    Thatcher won the youth vote.

    In 1979 and 1983, helped by the SDP in the latter enabling her to win a plurality of under 25s but she lost the under 25 vote to Kinnock in 1987
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
    While there is a growth in not learning to drive, all the teenagers locally are learning to drive. Many plan on not having a car, but see having a driving license as something very useful.
  • https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1629463549943635973

    The new Malthouse Compromise: @kitmalthouse on @GBNEWS proposes a swap deal with France to stop the small boats
  • https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/25/lord-sainsbury-returns-to-the-labour-fold-with-2m-donation

    Lord Sainsbury returns to the Labour fold with £2m donation

    The former chair of the supermarket chain was a big donor to Blair and Brown but cut off his support under Corbyn
  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    *Taps graph again*



    Most people didn't swing right as they got older. The steep age profile in voting intention is a very recent development.

    The Conservatives got a higher share of the youth vote losing in 1997 and 2001 than they did winning in 2019.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    FF43 said:

    To the extent voter ID is an issue at all, it's easily solvable by printing a code on the polling card sent to people's houses. You either bring the card with you to the polling place where the code number is checked, you quote the code on postal votes or you present ID if for some reason you can't get hold of your card. It would even deal with postal vote fraud.

    Yes but the point is that this is common sense.
    ...and it assumes the voter ID changes have been brought in to address voter fraud, rather than discourage people who are less likely to vote Tory from voting.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
    I asked you what you meant by the claim, and apparently all you can do is post some "numbers made up".

    You say relative likelihood is what matters (in bold). So what is the relative likelihood? I'm guessing you don't actually know.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    I think we are roughly the same age.
    In the mid 90s, youthful Tory voting was unusual but not completely so.

    Nowadays if you met an 18 year old voting Tory you’d assume they had a mental health disorder.

    I’m not even joking.
    However Blair also won over 65s in 1997 and even now most over 65s still back Sunak over Starmer
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher won the youth vote.

    In 1979 and 1983, helped by the SDP in the latter enabling her to win a plurality of under 25s but she lost the under 25 vote to Kinnock in 1987
    Are you really saying that the young are too young to vote Tory?
  • The news comes as insiders say that the party is now “debt- and deficit-free” after facing significant bills for legal action, redundancies and falling membership revenue that left it plunging into the red at the start of last year. It also signals that the race to raise funds before the next election has already begun.

    The Tories cannot rely on Labour being bankrupt anymore.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited February 2023
    Quite interesting IFS podcast on taxing the wealthy.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/how-tax-rich

    TLDR, 2/3 of the wealthy (ie are normal PAYE types who are already paying the top rate.

    The other 1/3 tend to be business owners who avoid tax by converting income into dividends or, even better, capital gains.

    There’s maybe £10bn of revenue on the table if we’re to create a better system. I’m reminded that scrapping the 45p rate a la Truss was only expected to cost £2bn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher won the youth vote.

    In 1979 and 1983, helped by the SDP in the latter enabling her to win a plurality of under 25s but she lost the under 25 vote to Kinnock in 1987
    Are you really saying that the young are too young to vote Tory?
    Most of them yes. Unless the Tories have a poll lead of 15%+ as in 1983 they should forget the under 25 vote
  • FF43 said:

    To the extent voter ID is an issue at all, it's easily solvable by printing a code on the polling card sent to people's houses. You either bring the card with you to the polling place where the code number is checked, you quote the code on postal votes or you present ID if for some reason you can't get hold of your card. It would even deal with postal vote fraud.

    Yes but the point is that this is common sense.
    ...and it assumes the voter ID changes have been brought in to address voter fraud, rather than discourage people who are less likely to vote Tory from voting.
    Although recent polling suggests it has backfired.

    Social media presumably is playing a part in that, which the elderly are scared of.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
    While there is a growth in not learning to drive, all the teenagers locally are learning to drive.
    An astonishing statistic.

  • HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher won the youth vote.

    In 1979 and 1983, helped by the SDP in the latter enabling her to win a plurality of under 25s but she lost the under 25 vote to Kinnock in 1987
    Are you really saying that the young are too young to vote Tory?
    Most of them yes. Unless the Tories have a poll lead of 15%+ as in 1983 they should forget the under 25 vote
    I'm just glad you're admitting that you deliberately fuck over and shaft the young.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    Thatcher won the youth vote.

    And now the Tory offer for the under 50s is…

    ..work to pay for our pensions?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher won the youth vote.

    In 1979 and 1983, helped by the SDP in the latter enabling her to win a plurality of under 25s but she lost the under 25 vote to Kinnock in 1987
    Are you really saying that the young are too young to vote Tory?
    Most of them yes. Unless the Tories have a poll lead of 15%+ as in 1983 they should forget the under 25 vote
    Hang on. You answered a different question there.
  • Thatcher won the youth vote.

    And now the Tory offer for the under 50s is…

    ..work to pay for our pensions?
    And then, our pensions? Hahahahaha
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    I voted Tory as an 18 year old and I’m not/was a bit weird.
    *Taps graph again*



    Most people didn't swing right as they got older. The steep age profile in voting intention is a very recent development.

    The Conservatives got a higher share of the youth vote losing in 1997 and 2001 than they did winning in 2019.
    The Conservatives however got nearly 70% of the over 65 vote in 2019 compared to under 40% of over 65s in 1997.

    The median voter is now aged 50, so provided the Tories win 45 to 50s and over they will at least win most seats and probably a majority.

    Voters under 45 just add to the size of a Tory victory nothing more. Under 45s should now really be Labour's core vote most elections
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1629463549943635973

    The new Malthouse Compromise: @kitmalthouse on @GBNEWS proposes a swap deal with France to stop the small boats

    I actually like this idea.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    edited February 2023
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader and chaired my uni Tory Association when IDS was Tory leader
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader for starters!
    Don't put yourself down like that mate, you're not weird at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
    I asked you what you meant by the claim, and apparently all you can do is post some "numbers made up".

    You say relative likelihood is what matters (in bold). So what is the relative likelihood? I'm guessing you don't actually know.
    What do you mean you're just guessing RCS is guessing? Where's your evidence? ;-)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited February 2023
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader and chaired my uni Tory Association when IDS was Tory leader
    Good on you @hyufd. Sorry I can't give the 2nd like, the mods won't let me.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader for starters!
    Don't put yourself down like that mate, you're not weird at all.
    I don't think HY's putting himself down but he is a bit weird.

    Tbf, we all are on here.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    edited February 2023

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there. Car owners typically have driving licenses.

    The young and the poor are the least like to have cars, and are also the least likely to vote Conservative.

    There was polling evidence of this produced last year.

    Personally, I am unbelievably cynical of this move in isolation. If it was part of a package to improve election security that involved tightening up postal voting, or if one of the various measures to allow those at the polls who didn't bring ID to post provisional votes (or equivalent) was implemented, then I'd feel differently. But the current measures feel awfully partisan.
    By the same token, expanding ownership should increase Toryism.

    So, the logical thing for the Conservatives to do is to make it easier for young people to own cars and houses, and lower their tax bills.

    It's remarkable they haven't figured this out.
    One has to he James Clerk Maxwell to do so, apparently. But he might not be a Tory, and is dead anyway.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Chris said:

    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
    While there is a growth in not learning to drive, all the teenagers locally are learning to drive.
    An astonishing statistic.

    The roads round here are jammed with them. Convoys of teachers in the evenings. The level of intolerance towards them is a bit much - horn honking for going 17 in a 20 is simply unpleasant.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,657

    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
    While there is a growth in not learning to drive, all the teenagers locally are learning to drive. Many plan on not having a car, but see having a driving license as something very useful.
    Locally the youngsters are keen to drive here too. Council cuts means that our only bus service days are numbered. It ends shortly and anyone wanting to work or socialise in the City will need to drive.
  • I don't think HY's putting himself down but he is a bit weird.

    Tbf, we all are on here.

    I think "weird" has negative connotations.

    I don't think anyone is weird, just as nobody is "normal". Everyone is different, everyone is interesting and has qualities that are valuable in some way. We are humans.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader for starters!
    Don't put yourself down like that mate, you're not weird at all.
    Being weird is good, average people are just boring.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1629463549943635973

    The new Malthouse Compromise: @kitmalthouse on @GBNEWS proposes a swap deal with France to stop the small boats

    I actually like this idea.
    It is quite clever. No idea why the French would sign up to it though.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader for starters!
    Don't put yourself down like that mate, you're not weird at all.
    Being weird is good, average people are just boring.
    Just think it has negative connotations that is all. I do not think "normal" or "weird" people exist. People exist.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader for starters!
    Don't put yourself down like that mate, you're not weird at all.
    Being weird is good, average people are just boring.
    Hard to meet an average person though. Despite the dull potential.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    It looks as though someone's hit a Russian airfield in Belarus. A Russian AWACS plane rumoured to have been destroyed.

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1629894670024167425
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beriev_A-50
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Chris said:

    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
    While there is a growth in not learning to drive, all the teenagers locally are learning to drive.
    An astonishing statistic.

    The roads round here are jammed with them. Convoys of teachers in the evenings. The level of intolerance towards them is a bit much - horn honking for going 17 in a 20 is simply unpleasant.
    Thanks for clarifying that you just meant there were a lot of driving instructors around on the roads. That does sound more believable.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
    I asked you what you meant by the claim, and apparently all you can do is post some "numbers made up".

    You say relative likelihood is what matters (in bold). So what is the relative likelihood? I'm guessing you don't actually know.
    What do you mean you're just guessing RCS is guessing? Where's your evidence? ;-)
    Perhaps you could benefit by consulting a dictionary. Under "guess".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kjh said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    We have had this discussion before here. In my day it was a rite of passage. Not these days with the cost of driving and if you live in a town with decent transport eg London.

    My son lives in Cambridge. He is 27. He doesn't have a driving licence. However he does have a passport.
    While there is a growth in not learning to drive, all the teenagers locally are learning to drive.
    An astonishing statistic.

    The roads round here are jammed with them. Convoys of teachers in the evenings. The level of intolerance towards them is a bit much - horn honking for going 17 in a 20 is simply unpleasant.
    Thanks for clarifying that you just meant there were a lot of driving instructors around on the roads. That does sound more believable.
    Also from talking to parents and teachers at a range of schools locally - the agro about getting a driving test is upsetting lots of them.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Going back to Leon's pet subject - I'm sorry

    https://twitter.com/aelfred_D/status/1629890316454043648
    @aelfred_D
    I still don’t buy the lab leak theory. You’re telling me a dog peeing caused the virus? C’mon.

    And, of cause, it wasn't just any labrador it had to be a black lab...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Well, ignoring the obvious point that plenty of those unable to vote (due to not being British) will own cars, and also that some people will own more than one car, the key is that:

    Relative likelihood is what matters

    Doesn't own a car: 20% likely to vote Conservative
    Owns a car: 60% likely to vote Conservative

    (Numbers made up for illustrative purposes)
    I asked you what you meant by the claim, and apparently all you can do is post some "numbers made up".

    You say relative likelihood is what matters (in bold). So what is the relative likelihood? I'm guessing you don't actually know.
    What do you mean you're just guessing RCS is guessing? Where's your evidence? ;-)
    Perhaps you could benefit by consulting a dictionary. Under "guess".
    Is that a few dozen pages before the entry for 'irony'?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited February 2023

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    How reliable is the assumption that it will be the tories who benefit from voter ID rules? It seems to me that the people most likely to not pick up on the change in the rules, ie the old, senile etc are also most likely to vote conservative. I think that Labours base is increasingly the educated middle class who will not find this too difficult to follow.

    Ownership of a car is one of the most reliable indicators of voting Conservative out there.
    I wonder exactly what you mean by that, considering that a quick search online brings up a figure of 32.9m cars registered in the UK and only 14m Tory voters at the last election.

    I wouldn't really describe an indicator as reliable if it had a less than even chance of giving the right answer.
    Getting a driving license is a right of passage things for many, many teenagers.

    I’ve not met a 17 year old who would vote conservative in a fair number of years.
    Anyone who votes Conservative at 18 is a bit weird, think Hague and his 14 pints and Tory conference speeches as a YC.

    Indeed the Tories haven't won the under 25 vote since 1983. Only in landslide years would the Tories even have a hope of winning under 25s. It is 30 to 50s who start to think about voting Tory, especially if they have purchased a house and are the swing voters. 50 to 65s lean Tory but not always.

    By 65 by contrast if you are a pensioner and not voting Tory then you are the weird one!
    You do realise the implication of what you are saying is that you either didn't vote Tory when you were 18 or you are a bit weird?

    Which is it to be and I'm not letting you off with your Plaid vote because I know you voted for as many Tories as you were able to then.

    I have a feeling I know the answer and if you give it I will like your reply (and will be annoyed I can't give it 2 likes)
    I was a bit weird at 18 yes, I was a member of Conservative Future when Hague was Tory leader for starters!
    Don't put yourself down like that mate, you're not weird at all.
    Being weird is good, average people are just boring.
    Just think it has negative connotations that is all. I do not think "normal" or "weird" people exist. People exist.
    I think it depends on circumstances. If someone was really awkward or suffers from low self esteem it would be a cruel thing to say, but if someone tells me I'm a bit weird I take that as a compliment. Better than being boring.

    PS I have to. It has been said quite a few times.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    It looks as though someone's hit a Russian airfield in Belarus. A Russian AWACS plane rumoured to have been destroyed.

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1629894670024167425
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beriev_A-50

    No, no, no.

    A stupid soldier was smoking Lucky Strike. Again.

    Perhaps The Sarge from Airplane has many, many Russian relatives.
This discussion has been closed.