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Starmer gets the best Ipsos ratings – Truss the worst – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,753
edited February 2023 in General
imageStarmer gets the best Ipsos ratings – Truss the worst – politicalbetting.com

Keir Starmer is seen most favourably, with 32% favourable and 39% unfavourable he achieves a Net score of -7. In comparison, the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is seen favourably by 27% of Britons while 46% disagree, giving a score of -19.  Starmer’s numbers are unchanged from January but Rishi Sunak has seen falling scores (January: 30% favourable and 39% unfavourable).

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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149
    Bring back Boris!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675
    We don’t think much of our political class do we? And people try to say the average voter is thick.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23340661.ash-regan-accepts-hustings-challenge-snp-leadership-race/

    Ms Regan has accepted invite to hustings: now waiting on Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf.

    Is Miss REGAN...

    VALUE?
    FPT

    I wish I knew the distribution of length of membership in the SNP in relation to the old days up to indyref, the big jump after indyref and the slower change to pro-Green/leftie social identity stuff under Ms Sturgeon. I'd be in a much better position to judge that.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,336
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23340661.ash-regan-accepts-hustings-challenge-snp-leadership-race/

    Ms Regan has accepted invite to hustings: now waiting on Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf.

    Is Miss REGAN...

    VALUE?
    FPT

    I wish I knew the distribution of length of membership in the SNP in relation to the old days up to indyref, the big jump after indyref and the slower change to pro-Green/leftie social identity stuff under Ms Sturgeon. I'd be in a much better position to judge that.
    Indeed. It's a hard one to call, but the reason I ask is that her campaign strategy seems to me to be a fairly straightforward one: avoid bigotry (Kate Forbidden) and incompetence (Humza Useless) and forge a moderate pro-Indy path.
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    DavidL said:

    We don’t think much of our political class do we? And people try to say the average voter is thick.

    The average voter is the one who keeps putting the muppets ahead of the likes of Rory the ex Tory, then complains that the narcissists and fundamentalists they prefer are unsurprisingly failures.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384
    edited February 2023

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23340661.ash-regan-accepts-hustings-challenge-snp-leadership-race/

    Ms Regan has accepted invite to hustings: now waiting on Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf.

    Is Miss REGAN...

    VALUE?
    FPT

    I wish I knew the distribution of length of membership in the SNP in relation to the old days up to indyref, the big jump after indyref and the slower change to pro-Green/leftie social identity stuff under Ms Sturgeon. I'd be in a much better position to judge that.
    Indeed. It's a hard one to call, but the reason I ask is that her campaign strategy seems to me to be a fairly straightforward one: avoid bigotry (Kate Forbidden) and incompetence (Humza Useless) and forge a moderate pro-Indy path.
    Also pro-economy, IIRC. A9 and so on. I am certainly not ruling her out: quite the opposite. Yet without knowing how many of the pre-2015 folk left ...

    Anyway, 24 hours to go before noms close.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,602
    Keir Starmer: Man on a Mission. More than that even - Man on 5 Missions.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384
    kinabalu said:

    Keir Starmer: Man on a Mission. More than that even - Man on 5 Missions.

    You make him sound like a South Seas missionary doing his round of the islands on his patch.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,749
    edited February 2023
    DavidL said:

    We don’t think much of our political class do we? And people try to say the average voter is thick.

    I don't set as much store by these polls than a lot on here.

    2219 online users surveyed. Likely underrepresentation of CP voters I'd guess. Favourables: Starmer 32% - well 90% of LP voters would be in that figure? Sunak 27% - will exclude those still pissed off by the ousting of Johnson and will include next to no other party voters.

    Poll pretty worthless I'd say. But if pushed I'd say Sunak comes out OK in it.

    Starmer only 4% ahead of Johnson on favourable side!
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    The country loves a lawyer if we ignore Braverman.
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    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,775
    edited February 2023
    European Commission bans TikTok on staff devices

    The commission said it was implementing the measure to "protect data and increase cybersecurity".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-64743991
  • Options

    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    The gap between him and Boris is not very big, so crazy an overstatement (well they are actually quite a bit crazy, but replacing the leader wouldn't confirm that). Boris is likely the better and certainly more cynical campaigner too which could give more upside in a GE from this position.
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    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    We don’t think much of our political class do we? And people try to say the average voter is thick.

    I don't set as much store by these polls than a lot on here.

    2219 online users surveyed. Likely underrepresentation of CP voters I'd guess. Favourables: Starmer 32% - well 90% of LP voters would be in that figure? Sunak 27% - will exclude those still pissed off by the ousting of Johnson and will include next to no other party voters.

    Poll pretty worthless I'd say. But if pushed I'd say Sunak comes out OK in it.

    Starmer only 4% ahead of Johnson on favourable side!
    Starmer's path to victory isn't by maximising favourable but by minimising unfavourables. He doesn't have the personality to garner a passionate following, and besides voters are too jaded now to believe in him even if he was more charismatic or had a stronger programme for government. He hopes to win (and probably will) by offering a break from the Tories without frightening the horses.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,336

    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    On that basis, we should probably expect an immediate voncking.
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    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    The gap between him and Boris is not very big, so crazy an overstatement (well they are actually quite a bit crazy, but replacing the leader wouldn't confirm that). Boris is likely the better and certainly more cynical campaigner too which could give more upside in a GE from this position.
    I'd have said that two years ago but Johnson is finished now with floating voters, they've seen through him and there's no way back once you've seen that the emperor is naked.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535

    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    The gap between him and Boris is not very big, so crazy an overstatement (well they are actually quite a bit crazy, but replacing the leader wouldn't confirm that). Boris is likely the better and certainly more cynical campaigner too which could give more upside in a GE from this position.
    Would he ?
    You could also argue his current ratings are improved by not being in the hot seat. Quite a lot of downside if the Tories are mad enough, IMO.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,232

    European Commission bans TikTok on staff devices

    The commission said it was implementing the measure to "protect data and increase cybersecurity".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-64743991

    Everyone finally seems to be clocking that this application is Chinese spyware.
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    The country loves a lawyer if we ignore Braverman.

    No, it's his new glasses. Starmer must have been talking to David Cameron's mum.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,232
    Proud to be in that 9% 😁
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    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    The gap between him and Boris is not very big, so crazy an overstatement (well they are actually quite a bit crazy, but replacing the leader wouldn't confirm that). Boris is likely the better and certainly more cynical campaigner too which could give more upside in a GE from this position.
    I'd have said that two years ago but Johnson is finished now with floating voters, they've seen through him and there's no way back once you've seen that the emperor is naked.
    One scenario that Johnson could exploit very favourably would be if Ukraine won their war. Call a GE a month or two later, be bullish on the economic and household finance gains that Bozo promises flow from that, and you have one of the few plausible scenarios where the Tories retain a majority.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,671
    kinabalu said:

    Keir Starmer: Man on a Mission. More than that even - Man on 5 Missions.

    SKS: "We have five missions to give us focus."
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,942
    It appears there are no local by-elections in England today. There is a Con defence in Aberdeen and a PC defence in Wrexham.
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    Nigelb said:

    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    The gap between him and Boris is not very big, so crazy an overstatement (well they are actually quite a bit crazy, but replacing the leader wouldn't confirm that). Boris is likely the better and certainly more cynical campaigner too which could give more upside in a GE from this position.
    Would he ?
    You could also argue his current ratings are improved by not being in the hot seat. Quite a lot of downside if the Tories are mad enough, IMO.
    Boris undoubtedly has more downside than Sunak. He probably has more upside too.
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    Sandpit said:

    Proud to be in that 9% 😁

    I admire your honesty.
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    Nigelb said:

    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    The gap between him and Boris is not very big, so crazy an overstatement (well they are actually quite a bit crazy, but replacing the leader wouldn't confirm that). Boris is likely the better and certainly more cynical campaigner too which could give more upside in a GE from this position.
    Would he ?
    You could also argue his current ratings are improved by not being in the hot seat. Quite a lot of downside if the Tories are mad enough, IMO.
    Boris undoubtedly has more downside than Sunak. He probably has more upside too.
    For sure but the next election is a downside election IMHO.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,671
    edited February 2023

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    We don’t think much of our political class do we? And people try to say the average voter is thick.

    I don't set as much store by these polls than a lot on here.

    2219 online users surveyed. Likely underrepresentation of CP voters I'd guess. Favourables: Starmer 32% - well 90% of LP voters would be in that figure? Sunak 27% - will exclude those still pissed off by the ousting of Johnson and will include next to no other party voters.

    Poll pretty worthless I'd say. But if pushed I'd say Sunak comes out OK in it.

    Starmer only 4% ahead of Johnson on favourable side!
    Starmer's path to victory isn't by maximising favourable but by minimising unfavourables. He doesn't have the personality to garner a passionate following, and besides voters are too jaded now to believe in him even if he was more charismatic or had a stronger programme for government. He hopes to win (and probably will) by offering a break from the Tories without frightening the horses.
    Sleaze, incompetence, and fatigue by and with the Cons will win the next GE for SKS.

    Edit: as it did in 1997
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    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    Can't disagree with the #1 spot but Hot Tub Time Machine should be ranked way higher.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,671

    Sandpit said:

    Proud to be in that 9% 😁

    I admire your honesty.
    I mean she was expected to be and indeed was a disaster but her general approach (get Britain moving, move away from a high tax, low growth environment) surely would touch the heart of any Cons (past or present).

    And all we needed was a spending plan and who knows what might have happened.
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    They really have trashed the brand:

    With a net score of+2, the Labour Party appears the most popular political party currently, 38% have a favourable opinion of the Opposition party (+3 pts from Jan) while 36% are unfavourable (no change). With 28% positive towards the Green Party (+5 pts) and 30% negative (-2), they see a net score of -2. The Conservatives see the lowest score with -29, 25% are favourable towards them (unchanged) while 54% are unfavourable (+3). The Liberal Democrats see a score of -17 while Reform UK (new to our list) score -24. However, many are neutral or do not have an opinion of each.



    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunak-registers-lowest-favourability-scores-prime-minister
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    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Proud to be in that 9% 😁

    I admire your honesty.
    I mean she was expected to be and indeed was a disaster but her general approach (get Britain moving, move away from a high tax, low growth environment) surely would touch the heart of any Cons (past or present).

    And all we needed was a spending plan and who knows what might have happened.
    She was the Tory base erogenous zones candidate. Speaking as a Labour supporter I know from bitter experience that you should never make those candidates leader.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,043
    Servants hust now

    44/31
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027
    edited February 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Proud to be in that 9% 😁

    Spoken like a Corbynite.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,043

    Servants hust now

    44/31

    45 not 44
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    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    On that basis, we should probably expect an immediate voncking.
    He cannot be VONCed until the end of October.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,966

    They really have trashed the brand:

    With a net score of+2, the Labour Party appears the most popular political party currently, 38% have a favourable opinion of the Opposition party (+3 pts from Jan) while 36% are unfavourable (no change). With 28% positive towards the Green Party (+5 pts) and 30% negative (-2), they see a net score of -2. The Conservatives see the lowest score with -29, 25% are favourable towards them (unchanged) while 54% are unfavourable (+3). The Liberal Democrats see a score of -17 while Reform UK (new to our list) score -24. However, many are neutral or do not have an opinion of each.



    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunak-registers-lowest-favourability-scores-prime-minister

    And the poor showing for the LibDems shows that it takes a long time to recover from trashing your brand.
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    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    It’s a rubbish list.

    No Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home nod Star Trek: First Contact.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,184
    boulay said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    They left out the little known cult indie film, “Top Hat Time Machine” where a dashing Victorian chimney sweeping mogul called Jacob puts on his top hat one morning and gets transported from 1840 to the present day where hilarity ensues as he negotiates a strange future where women and people who don’t own property can vote, the Prime Minister is a colonial subject and everyone Jacob meets thinks he’s a twat.

    It’s a classic.
    Edge of Tomorrow deserves to be up there.
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    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    Lightyear (2022) may be a kids movie that couldn't possibly live up to Toy Story, but it is still a better movie than some of early ones on that list.
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    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    Would put La Jetée (1962) in the top 20 myself. 28 minutes long, made of a sequence of still photographs and served as the premise for 12 Monkeys. It's a film which is unlike most others and which lingers in the memory.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    28% favourable for Boris, 27% for Rishi suggests little difference between them in terms of getting Tory voteshare. However Boris' higher negatives might see more anti Tory tactical voting again.

    Truss' just 9% favourable rating confirms she had to be removed for the Tories to avoid annihilation
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,602

    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    They're crazy alright but not quite that crazy. He'll surely fight the GE. I have him laid for a decent amount @ 5 to exit in 2023.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,411
    So the Grauniad is now paywalled....even less of a reason to read it.....
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,602
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Keir Starmer: Man on a Mission. More than that even - Man on 5 Missions.

    SKS: "We have five missions to give us focus."
    It's actually ONE mission - GTTO!
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    So the Grauniad is now paywalled....even less of a reason to read it.....

    You’ll be pleased to know can carry on not reading it free of charge if you click on the little cross button on their very polite pop up request for a contribution..
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    Ratnered.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921
    The interesting one is Jeremy Corbyn. Only slightly more unfavourable than Boris Johnson.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,175

    There are two sides to Boris:

    1. A charismatic, entertaining, tub-thumping, JCB-driving, Britain-boosting optimist with huge appeal to voters who aren't particularly interested in politics but like their celebrities to be a bit of a giggle.

    2. A rather seedy, lying, conniving, entitled upper-class man who can't be trusted an inch, who will say absolutely anything to get his way, who thinks norms and rules are for others, who would betray anybody if it suited him, and whose ego is so large that nothing and nobody can deflate it.

    I'm inclined to think that 2. has now defeated 1. in the eyes of the public, and there is no way back for him. Hope I'm right.

    With a 52/28 split I'd be inclined to think that it perhaps not as clear cut a victory for (2) as one might hope.
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    So the Grauniad is now paywalled....even less of a reason to read it.....

    Is it? I just click “not now” when it asks me to subscribe..
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149

    They really have trashed the brand:

    With a net score of+2, the Labour Party appears the most popular political party currently, 38% have a favourable opinion of the Opposition party (+3 pts from Jan) while 36% are unfavourable (no change). With 28% positive towards the Green Party (+5 pts) and 30% negative (-2), they see a net score of -2. The Conservatives see the lowest score with -29, 25% are favourable towards them (unchanged) while 54% are unfavourable (+3). The Liberal Democrats see a score of -17 while Reform UK (new to our list) score -24. However, many are neutral or do not have an opinion of each.



    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunak-registers-lowest-favourability-scores-prime-minister

    And the poor showing for the LibDems shows that it takes a long time to recover from trashing your brand.
    The Lib Dem score looks more like "meh" to me than residual post-Clegg brand damage. Low favourability, though still higher than the polling VI. Not massive negatives either. But a huge amount of neither.
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    FF43 said:

    The interesting one is Jeremy Corbyn. Only slightly more unfavourable than Boris Johnson.

    Going by PB there must be loads of folk who hate Corbyn because he ‘made’ them vote for Johnson.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535

    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    It’s a rubbish list.

    No Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home nod Star Trek: First Contact.
    It’s a fun list - there are a number of obvious omissions.
    You’re sounding like a Guardian BTLer… several of whom agree with you.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,852
    edited February 2023
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Proud to be in that 9% 😁

    I admire your honesty.
    I mean she was expected to be and indeed was a disaster but her general approach (get Britain moving, move away from a high tax, low growth environment) surely would touch the heart of any Cons (past or present).

    And all we needed was a spending plan and who knows what might have happened.
    If there had been a plan to balance the budget by cutting spending then it would have been very different, but that was never the Truss plan.

    She said explicitly during the leadership contest that she would pay for the tax cuts with extra borrowing, and not only that, but that she would renegotiate the Covid debt so that we could pay it back over a longer period so that the extra borrowing wouldn't even cost us a penny more in extra debt interest payments. It was sub-Corbynite rubbish that not even McDonnell dates to touch and it received exactly the market reaction you would expect.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149
    HYUFD said:

    28% favourable for Boris, 27% for Rishi suggests little difference between them in terms of getting Tory voteshare. However Boris' higher negatives might see more anti Tory tactical voting again.

    Truss' just 9% favourable rating confirms she had to be removed for the Tories to avoid annihilation

    I think these also highlight the tendency of voters to want to be on the right side. Popularity begets popularity. I'm pretty sure Boris does better than Truss partly because people keep being told he's still popular.
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    Kate Forbes tweet thread:

    This election is about independence, who is best equipped, and who has the best plan to achieve it. It is also about the society we want Scotland to be – where tolerance is the ruling ethic, poverty becomes history, equality of opportunity is the birth right of every child. /1

    https://twitter.com/_KateForbes/status/1628724964605014017?s=20
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921
    edited February 2023
    Possibly the size of the Don't Knows is most important, if these can be interpreted as "Remain to be convinced". Both Sunak and Starmer have large Don't Knows despite being the current leaders.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,472
    boulay said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    They left out the little known cult indie film, “Top Hat Time Machine” where a dashing Victorian chimney sweeping mogul called Jacob puts on his top hat one morning and gets transported from 1840 to the present day where hilarity ensues as he negotiates a strange future where women and people who don’t own property can vote, the Prime Minister is a colonial subject and everyone Jacob meets thinks he’s a twat.

    It’s a classic.
    Is that the sequel? In the original, a dashing Victorian chimney sweeping mogul called Jacob puts on his top hat one morning and gets transported from 1740 to 1840. Everyone thought he was a twat in the original as well...

    (BTW, that joke was hilarious. If I had a top hat on, I'd doff it to you.)
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    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    We don’t think much of our political class do we? And people try to say the average voter is thick.

    I don't set as much store by these polls than a lot on here.

    2219 online users surveyed. Likely underrepresentation of CP voters I'd guess. Favourables: Starmer 32% - well 90% of LP voters would be in that figure? Sunak 27% - will exclude those still pissed off by the ousting of Johnson and will include next to no other party voters.

    Poll pretty worthless I'd say. But if pushed I'd say Sunak comes out OK in it.

    Starmer only 4% ahead of Johnson on favourable side!
    Starmer's path to victory isn't by maximising favourable but by minimising unfavourables. He doesn't have the personality to garner a passionate following, and besides voters are too jaded now to believe in him even if he was more charismatic or had a stronger programme for government. He hopes to win (and probably will) by offering a break from the Tories without frightening the horses.
    Sleaze, incompetence, and fatigue by and with the Cons will win the next GE for SKS.

    Edit: as it did in 1997
    How are you keeping mate?

    I totally agree with you, Keir wins by default.
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    I suspect we’ll be seeing more of this….


    Just about Putin's only hope now is that America is crazy enough to hand the Oval Office back to Donald Trump, who then does Putin's bidding and cuts off support for Ukraine.

    Hopefully everyone here can agree that will be a terrible scenario.
    We don't always agree Bart but on this we do. 100%.
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    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    It’s a rubbish list.

    No Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home nod Star Trek: First Contact.
    It’s a fun list - there are a number of obvious omissions.
    You’re sounding like a Guardian BTLer… several of whom agree with you.
    As a bona fide geek I know what I speak about on this topic.
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    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Proud to be in that 9% 😁

    I admire your honesty.
    I mean she was expected to be and indeed was a disaster but her general approach (get Britain moving, move away from a high tax, low growth environment) surely would touch the heart of any Cons (past or present).

    And all we needed was a spending plan and who knows what might have happened.
    If there had been a plan to balance the budget by cutting spending then it would have been very different, but that was never the Truss plan.

    She said explicitly during the leadership contest that she would pay for the tax cuts with extra borrowing, and not only that, but that she would renegotiate the Covid debt so that we could pay it back over a longer period so that the extras borrowing wouldn't even cost us a penny more in extra debt interest payments. It was sub-Corbynite rubbish that not even McDonnell dates to touch and it received exactly the market reaction you would expect.
    Realistically, there couldn't have been a plan to reduce the deficit by spending cuts, because nobody has identified big enough spending cuts that have a hope in hell of being politically acceptable.

    Foreign aid and diversity offices don't begin to touch the sides.
  • Options
    I wish the Bishop of Bath & Wells appeared in the National poll.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,516
    edited February 2023
    Commemorative you can’t escape the legacy of Arthur Donaldson tweet. Quite shocking that the rancid old **** was allowed to return to the Commons as if nothing had happened. Mind you, he’d probably be the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party in its current iteration.



    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1628709274976153601?s=61&t=t6v9Ta4h-SMABSvwj2rQFg
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,760
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    28% favourable for Boris, 27% for Rishi suggests little difference between them in terms of getting Tory voteshare. However Boris' higher negatives might see more anti Tory tactical voting again.

    Truss' just 9% favourable rating confirms she had to be removed for the Tories to avoid annihilation

    I think these also highlight the tendency of voters to want to be on the right side. Popularity begets popularity. I'm pretty sure Boris does better than Truss partly because people keep being told he's still popular.
    I’d go further. I would question such ratings. You can ask a question, and feed back the answer you got, but where’s the quality check on the actual answers? How does a sampled voter actually compare someone in power with someone out of power?

    Starmer has done some waffle this morning - got some awful media coverage of it actually - what he said both Stalin and Donald Trump could have said. Ed Milliband chipped the same promises into stone.

    Where HY is completely wrong in assumptions posted here, someone with a crown on their head always will be seen and thought of differently than everyone else without a crown on their head. It’s a matter of evidential fact now, a crowned Boris will pull in many more votes at next election than a crowned Sunak can.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,581
    One of the main stories in the Spanish newspapers is the Roald Dahl controversy, (which isn't what I was expecting to find in them).
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384

    So the Grauniad is now paywalled....even less of a reason to read it.....

    You’ll be pleased to know can carry on not reading it free of charge if you click on the little cross button on their very polite pop up request for a contribution..
    It selects for intelligence in its readers.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    Fun fact from my ongoing Korean lessons.
    Until recently, they didn’t even have a word for part time job. The word they came up with is a straight transliteration of the German ‘Arbeiter’.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921

    Kate Forbes tweet thread:

    This election is about independence, who is best equipped, and who has the best plan to achieve it. It is also about the society we want Scotland to be – where tolerance is the ruling ethic, poverty becomes history, equality of opportunity is the birth right of every child. /1

    https://twitter.com/_KateForbes/status/1628724964605014017?s=20

    This is what she should have said in the first place. It's not difficult. It's probably too late now. I hope it doesn't prevent her achieving high office later on. I do think an intolerance of people making a mistake ever is detrimental to politics.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,860

    I wish the Bishop of Bath & Wells appeared in the National poll.

    Too busy eating babies?

    Hope yours is well, btw.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384

    Commemorative you can’t escape the legacy of Arthur Donaldson tweet. Quite shocking that the rancid old **** was allowed to return to the Commons as if nothing had happened. Mind you, he’d probably be the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party in its current iteration.



    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1628709274976153601?s=61&t=t6v9Ta4h-SMABSvwj2rQFg

    I heard all about it in my youth - relatives living in the constituency. I was quite amazed to find that at least one of the more intelligent Scots-resident posters on PB was completely unaware of him.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,852
    .

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Proud to be in that 9% 😁

    I admire your honesty.
    I mean she was expected to be and indeed was a disaster but her general approach (get Britain moving, move away from a high tax, low growth environment) surely would touch the heart of any Cons (past or present).

    And all we needed was a spending plan and who knows what might have happened.
    If there had been a plan to balance the budget by cutting spending then it would have been very different, but that was never the Truss plan.

    She said explicitly during the leadership contest that she would pay for the tax cuts with extra borrowing, and not only that, but that she would renegotiate the Covid debt so that we could pay it back over a longer period so that the extras borrowing wouldn't even cost us a penny more in extra debt interest payments. It was sub-Corbynite rubbish that not even McDonnell dates to touch and it received exactly the market reaction you would expect.
    Realistically, there couldn't have been a plan to reduce the deficit by spending cuts, because nobody has identified big enough spending cuts that have a hope in hell of being politically acceptable.

    Foreign aid and diversity offices don't begin to touch the sides.
    At the time of the Special Budgetary Operation they didn't need to have all the details of how to save £45bn a year. It would have been fine if they'd simply said they would save half of it from departmental spending, a quarter from working age benefits, and a final quarter from "long-term reform of the state pension," or something else similarly vague. Details to follow.

    Provided they sounded serious enough about it then it would have been enough to buy them sooner credibility and time with the markets while they worked out the details (and hoped tax receipts were better than forecast so they had no need to fully go through with it.)

    I don't know how they would have been able to do it and avoid massive public unpopularity, but politics is a bit mysterious. Osborne managed to win public support for public spending cuts by winning the political arguments over their necessity and targeting them carefully. Maybe Truss would have failed to achieve the same, but it would have been a better way to fail than the moronic way she chose.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    28% favourable for Boris, 27% for Rishi suggests little difference between them in terms of getting Tory voteshare. However Boris' higher negatives might see more anti Tory tactical voting again.

    Truss' just 9% favourable rating confirms she had to be removed for the Tories to avoid annihilation

    I think these also highlight the tendency of voters to want to be on the right side. Popularity begets popularity. I'm pretty sure Boris does better than Truss partly because people keep being told he's still popular.
    I’d go further. I would question such ratings. You can ask a question, and feed back the answer you got, but where’s the quality check on the actual answers? How does a sampled voter actually compare someone in power with someone out of power?

    Starmer has done some waffle this morning - got some awful media coverage of it actually - what he said both Stalin and Donald Trump could have said. Ed Milliband chipped the same promises into stone.

    Where HY is completely wrong in assumptions posted here, someone with a crown on their head always will be seen and thought of differently than everyone else without a crown on their head. It’s a matter of evidential fact now, a crowned Boris will pull in many more votes at next election than a crowned Sunak can.
    Divine Right is where it's at for HY, dear celestial cuniculine.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,808
    edited February 2023

    Notable that Sunak remains the most popular Tory on offer in net terms, supporting my view that he is their best chance and they'd be crazy to replace him before the election.

    If the UK is anything like PB, Sunak stacks up favourability in Tory opponents (funny that) who would never vote for him in a million years. His unfavourability lies amongst Tory supporters on the right, as well of course as some Labour supporters on the left who would never like any flavour of Tory. That isn't a recipe for electoral success.

    Amongst actual Tory supporters we now see deep depression, combined with an angry doubling down from his backers about how awful Truss was, based upon nothing more than cussed refusual to admit that he's fucking useless and always was. If the PCP ends up being just Michael Fabricant, they will still be posting 'Imagine how much worse it would have been under Truss!!' the silly farts.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,760
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23340661.ash-regan-accepts-hustings-challenge-snp-leadership-race/

    Ms Regan has accepted invite to hustings: now waiting on Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf.

    Is Miss REGAN...

    VALUE?
    FPT

    I wish I knew the distribution of length of membership in the SNP in relation to the old days up to indyref, the big jump after indyref and the slower change to pro-Green/leftie social identity stuff under Ms Sturgeon. I'd be in a much better position to judge that.
    Indeed. It's a hard one to call, but the reason I ask is that her campaign strategy seems to me to be a fairly straightforward one: avoid bigotry (Kate Forbidden) and incompetence (Humza Useless) and forge a moderate pro-Indy path.
    Also pro-economy, IIRC. A9 and so on. I am certainly not ruling her out: quite the opposite. Yet without knowing how many of the pre-2015 folk left ...

    Anyway, 24 hours to go before noms close.
    “24 hours to go before noms close”

    My take on it is it’s amazing to think new leader can be one of these three. Why did Nicola have to resign if opening Pandora’s Box is the outcome? SNP opponents are laughing their heads off one of these three as the new leader. So maybe the winner has’t declared yet. If Cherry enters for example, she wins.

    Regan won’t win this. But she could get a good position from it and then sink or swim from what she does with this publicity and any cabinet Posts which come from this. And all that is dependent on the new leader ripping up Sturgeons position on trans rights, or so many promising talents stay outside the cabinet.

    Kate should have won this by a country mile over Humza , but now it’s neck and neck between the two, very tight result. So even once it’s over, with such a split party it’s still not over.

    The only certainty is currently betting markets haven’t a scooby Dooby cluesy what’s going on in this one.
  • Options

    I suspect we’ll be seeing more of this….


    Just about Putin's only hope now is that America is crazy enough to hand the Oval Office back to Donald Trump, who then does Putin's bidding and cuts off support for Ukraine.

    Hopefully everyone here can agree that will be a terrible scenario.
    I believe Joe’s ratings are on the up? Mind you I thought he looked awfully tottery when he was biffing about the streets of Kiev, don’t like to think of him doing another 4 gruelling years.
  • Options

    Commemorative you can’t escape the legacy of Arthur Donaldson tweet. Quite shocking that the rancid old **** was allowed to return to the Commons as if nothing had happened. Mind you, he’d probably be the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party in its current iteration.



    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1628709274976153601?s=61&t=t6v9Ta4h-SMABSvwj2rQFg

    Like the way he describes her actions as a "mistake" as if joining an organisation that beheaded people and burnt them alive, and watching gay men being thrown to their deaths, was comparable to not paying a parking ticket. Some of the Hitler Youth should have had this chap on board.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921

    Commemorative you can’t escape the legacy of Arthur Donaldson tweet. Quite shocking that the rancid old **** was allowed to return to the Commons as if nothing had happened. Mind you, he’d probably be the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party in its current iteration.



    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1628709274976153601?s=61&t=t6v9Ta4h-SMABSvwj2rQFg

    I don't think he's quite right in his original tweet that her ethnicity was the sole reason why her citizenship was revoked. Jack Jihadi or whatever his nickname was, also lost his citizenship. It was also due to her cause. If her cause was a more "respectable" right-wing fascism rather than Islamic terrorism she would have been fine, like the MP.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535

    I suspect we’ll be seeing more of this….


    Just about Putin's only hope now is that America is crazy enough to hand the Oval Office back to Donald Trump, who then does Putin's bidding and cuts off support for Ukraine.

    Hopefully everyone here can agree that will be a terrible scenario.
    I believe Joe’s ratings are on the up? Mind you I thought he looked awfully tottery when he was biffing about the streets of Kiev, don’t like to think of him doing another 4 gruelling years.
    No one does, really.
    But there’s no clear way around the fact that it’s not obvious who would challenge him if he decides to run again, and even less so who might do so successfully.
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    Nigelb said:

    I suspect we’ll be seeing more of this….


    Just about Putin's only hope now is that America is crazy enough to hand the Oval Office back to Donald Trump, who then does Putin's bidding and cuts off support for Ukraine.

    Hopefully everyone here can agree that will be a terrible scenario.
    I believe Joe’s ratings are on the up? Mind you I thought he looked awfully tottery when he was biffing about the streets of Kiev, don’t like to think of him doing another 4 gruelling years.
    No one does, really.
    But there’s no clear way around the fact that it’s not obvious who would challenge him if he decides to run again, and even less so who might do so successfully.
    I’ve just realised Kate Forbes would do great in the Dems..
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,344
    Is SNP leader vote FPTP or do 2nd prefs get reallocated?

    Feels as if Forbes and Regan would transfer to each other whereas under FPTP they will split the vote to give Yousaf easy win.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,336

    I suspect we’ll be seeing more of this….


    Just about Putin's only hope now is that America is crazy enough to hand the Oval Office back to Donald Trump, who then does Putin's bidding and cuts off support for Ukraine.

    Hopefully everyone here can agree that will be a terrible scenario.
    I believe Joe’s ratings are on the up? Mind you I thought he looked awfully tottery when he was biffing about the streets of Kiev, don’t like to think of him doing another 4 gruelling years.
    Biden is very probably the most underrated leader in world politics
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,912
    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    Predestination is an interesting one
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,353
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23340661.ash-regan-accepts-hustings-challenge-snp-leadership-race/

    Ms Regan has accepted invite to hustings: now waiting on Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf.

    Is Miss REGAN...

    VALUE?
    FPT

    I wish I knew the distribution of length of membership in the SNP in relation to the old days up to indyref, the big jump after indyref and the slower change to pro-Green/leftie social identity stuff under Ms Sturgeon. I'd be in a much better position to judge that.
    Who knows how many have left, given they had to borrow £107,620 from their CEO it would suggest that they are well skint and not pulling in much by way of members fees, though the eye watering salaries The Magpie and the other place(wo)men take away may be more to blame for that.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,353

    I suspect we’ll be seeing more of this….


    Just about Putin's only hope now is that America is crazy enough to hand the Oval Office back to Donald Trump, who then does Putin's bidding and cuts off support for Ukraine.

    Hopefully everyone here can agree that will be a terrible scenario.
    I believe Joe’s ratings are on the up? Mind you I thought he looked awfully tottery when he was biffing about the streets of Kiev, don’t like to think of him doing another 4 gruelling years.
    He comes across well speaking I think but hard to see him doing it for another stretch , you woudl think he has achieved his goal and put his feet up for his remaining years.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,852

    I suspect we’ll be seeing more of this….


    Just about Putin's only hope now is that America is crazy enough to hand the Oval Office back to Donald Trump, who then does Putin's bidding and cuts off support for Ukraine.

    Hopefully everyone here can agree that will be a terrible scenario.
    I believe Joe’s ratings are on the up? Mind you I thought he looked awfully tottery when he was biffing about the streets of Kiev, don’t like to think of him doing another 4 gruelling years.
    Biden is very probably the most underrated leader in world politics
    Do you think that's due to his age, or for other reasons?

    I find it possible to imagine that things would be quite different if he were twenty years younger, but then I wonder whether part of the issue is the nature of the times and it's extreme partisanship.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    FF43 said:

    Commemorative you can’t escape the legacy of Arthur Donaldson tweet. Quite shocking that the rancid old **** was allowed to return to the Commons as if nothing had happened. Mind you, he’d probably be the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party in its current iteration.



    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1628709274976153601?s=61&t=t6v9Ta4h-SMABSvwj2rQFg

    I don't think he's quite right in his original tweet that her ethnicity was the sole reason why her citizenship was revoked. Jack Jihadi or whatever his nickname was, also lost his citizenship. It was also due to her cause. If her cause was a more "respectable" right-wing fascism rather than Islamic terrorism she would have been fine, like the MP.
    Ahem...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Joyce
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,472
    Pagan2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    Predestination is an interesting one
    Primer has to be #1 for me.

    I have to love any film that causes fans to create a chart like the one below just to understand what's going on. There were probably nine timelines in the film (though some seem to disagree):

    https://unrealitymag.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/primer-chart.jpg

    Yet the film was watchable without it: it's only when you watch it again and notice the subtle details that lead you into its depths.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,681

    Nigelb said:

    Fun list from the Guardian, with a few spoilers. Some there I haven’t seen and might look up.
    Can anyone improve on their suggestions ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/feb/23/the-20-best-time-travel-movies-ranked

    Would put La Jetée (1962) in the top 20 myself. 28 minutes long, made of a sequence of still photographs and served as the premise for 12 Monkeys. It's a film which is unlike most others and which lingers in the memory.
    Utterly terrible list - where is Dr Who and the Daleks, and Dr Who and the Dalek Invasion of Earth?

    Outraged.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,353

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23340661.ash-regan-accepts-hustings-challenge-snp-leadership-race/

    Ms Regan has accepted invite to hustings: now waiting on Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf.

    Is Miss REGAN...

    VALUE?
    FPT

    I wish I knew the distribution of length of membership in the SNP in relation to the old days up to indyref, the big jump after indyref and the slower change to pro-Green/leftie social identity stuff under Ms Sturgeon. I'd be in a much better position to judge that.
    Indeed. It's a hard one to call, but the reason I ask is that her campaign strategy seems to me to be a fairly straightforward one: avoid bigotry (Kate Forbidden) and incompetence (Humza Useless) and forge a moderate pro-Indy path.
    Also pro-economy, IIRC. A9 and so on. I am certainly not ruling her out: quite the opposite. Yet without knowing how many of the pre-2015 folk left ...

    Anyway, 24 hours to go before noms close.
    “24 hours to go before noms close”

    My take on it is it’s amazing to think new leader can be one of these three. Why did Nicola have to resign if opening Pandora’s Box is the outcome? SNP opponents are laughing their heads off one of these three as the new leader. So maybe the winner has’t declared yet. If Cherry enters for example, she wins.

    Regan won’t win this. But she could get a good position from it and then sink or swim from what she does with this publicity and any cabinet Posts which come from this. And all that is dependent on the new leader ripping up Sturgeons position on trans rights, or so many promising talents stay outside the cabinet.

    Kate should have won this by a country mile over Humza , but now it’s neck and neck between the two, very tight result. So even once it’s over, with such a split party it’s still not over.

    The only certainty is currently betting markets haven’t a scooby Dooby cluesy what’s going on in this one.
    The skeletons in the cupboard were rattling too much for Sturgeon, soon they will have to explain where the 667K missing ringfenced money went. Many others are potentially in the offing , no referendum and country going down the toilet so best before the fuzz or the pitchforks turned up.
    Hard to imagine why Cherry is not in , though she may have been waiting to see which of the roasters the Murrells would put up. Macbeth decided he had to keep his head down , so out of the assorted dross Murrells have selected the Hapless Humza as their sockpuppet.
    Hard to believe Regan will not win it unless Cherry makes a last minute appearance or the voting is rigged.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,860
    tlg86 said:

    FF43 said:

    Commemorative you can’t escape the legacy of Arthur Donaldson tweet. Quite shocking that the rancid old **** was allowed to return to the Commons as if nothing had happened. Mind you, he’d probably be the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party in its current iteration.



    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1628709274976153601?s=61&t=t6v9Ta4h-SMABSvwj2rQFg

    I don't think he's quite right in his original tweet that her ethnicity was the sole reason why her citizenship was revoked. Jack Jihadi or whatever his nickname was, also lost his citizenship. It was also due to her cause. If her cause was a more "respectable" right-wing fascism rather than Islamic terrorism she would have been fine, like the MP.
    Ahem...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Joyce
    He was Irish, so won't be counted.

    John Amery, however...
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,344
    MikeL said:

    Is SNP leader vote FPTP or do 2nd prefs get reallocated?

    Feels as if Forbes and Regan would transfer to each other whereas under FPTP they will split the vote to give Yousaf easy win.

    To answer my own question, Wiki says STV.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Scottish_National_Party_leadership_election#:~:text=Election process,-The SNP constitution&text=Every SNP member who was,members as of December 2021.
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Keir Starmer: Man on a Mission. More than that even - Man on 5 Missions.

    SKS: "We have five missions to give us focus."
    It's actually ONE mission - GTTO!
    That is not a mission, it's just a prerequisite to doing what Labour wants to do to make the country better.

    If "GTTO" is the extent of what Labour stands for, their time in office will be worse than the current government.
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    FF43 said:

    The interesting one is Jeremy Corbyn. Only slightly more unfavourable than Boris Johnson.

    Which, given Corbyn never held office, is incredibly bad for him.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505
    Boris is playing an interesting role in US politics on Ukraine at the moment. I hope @SeaShantyIrish2 will eventually recant from calling him a Putinist.

    @BorisJohnson
    Supporting Ukraine now is the best long-term investment we can make in global security.

    My piece with @LindseyGrahamSC in the WSJ


    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1628679259752374272
This discussion has been closed.