Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
Can we have a similar referendum on British perverts who go overseas to have sex with prostitues?
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
Not sure.
I am certainly not a PB (or any other sort of) war strategist but I fully expected Ukraine to collapse within weeks.
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Isn't that point about this case that Shamima Begum is not deemed to have committed any offence whatsoever, but that the court simply confirmed that the law allows the Home Secretary to remove someone's citizenship purely on his/her own opinion, without any due process of law or right of appeal?
If that's what the law really says, then the court had no option to rule otherwise.
But equally if that's what the law says, it places the UK on a par with the worst of banana republics. That's 800 years plus after Magna Carta.
AIUI the court ruled that, on a far from clear cut decision, that ultimately they accepted the SoS's national security argument.
On the contrary, as I understand it (based on press reports) they ruled that legally it was a matter for him to decide and not them.
Are you sure your understanding is correct?
As per my subsequent post - the fact that she was trafficked could have been a mitigating factor but the SoS (Javid) decided not to take this into account (as was his prerogative) and in the end his concern over national security meant that depriving her of her citizenship was not unlawful.
You're agreeing with what I said, then - that they ruled it was a matter for him to decide?
They didn't accept his argument, but they accepted he was the sole arbiter, so that they had no right to dispute it?
I'm agreeing with what I have been saying all along (perhaps clumsily).
Well, confusing as the issues are, I think there are two reasonably clearly defined alternative interpretations: (1) The court ruled that there was a right to deprive her of citizenship if there were national security grounds, and agreed that the Home Secretary had made that argument, or (2) The court ruled that it was the Home Secretary to decide on national security grounds, and given that he had made the decision, didn't reach any conclusion about whether his decsion was justified.
Your previous comment seemed to imply (1). My impression was (2).
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
You're quite amusing sometimes, and you write well, even when you wish to shock.
This is not one of those occasions. Your description of Begum is beneath you and you wouldn't, I think, use those words in a different context.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't be ever realised.
You mean, let's hope he's right in his prediction that all his predictions are wrong?
Because at this point we're into Russell's paradox on naive set theory.
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
Can we have a similar referendum on British perverts who go overseas to have sex with prostitues?
Bit harsh on Asian arranged marriages, there. But you’re the moderator
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Shamima is an evil woman with no redeeming qualities, most of the country agrees with that statement.
I can live with that. But she is our evil woman with no redeeming qualities.
Yes. There seems to be a conflation of “she is guilty/evil” with “it is right that she have her citizenship removed”.
Personally I presume she is as guilty as sin, with zero redeeming features. But I don’t think the Home Sec should have the power to strip her (or my!) citizenship.
Indeed, people can now be stripped of their citizenship even if they do not have dual nationality, if the Home Sec believes they are eligible for another countries citizenship.
This would include most second generation immigrants and even third generation immigrants (like myself) so a considerable percentage of the population.
Just as well we don't have a capricious tyrant as Home Sec...
I agree, this could apply just as equally to my own children, despite both parents having been born in the UK, and having no intention of pursuing the dual citizenship they are entitled to via grandparents, of a country they can only remember visiting once.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
Not sure.
I am certainly not a PB (or any other sort of) war strategist but I fully expected Ukraine to collapse within weeks.
There’s also the matter of fighting a broken back war long after the sane thing would be to quit.
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
Can we have a similar referendum on British perverts who go overseas to have sex with prostitues?
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
Not sure.
I am certainly not a PB (or any other sort of) war strategist but I fully expected Ukraine to collapse within weeks.
I thought you were ridiculously optimistic. I thought Putin was probably bullshitting on his three days. I gave the Ukrainians 96 hours.
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
You're quite amusing sometimes, and you write well, even when you wish to shock.
This is not one of those occasions. Your description of Begum is beneath you and you wouldn't, I think, use those words in a different context.
Well I wouldn’t use them if talking about yer mum, no. But with regards to Begum, which words precisely do you find objectionable?
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
You're quite amusing sometimes, and you write well, even when you wish to shock.
This is not one of those occasions. Your description of Begum is beneath you and you wouldn't, I think, use those words in a different context.
So according to @Leon, every Brit who is a rapist/murderer should be stripped of their citizenship?
It’s also stupidly arbitrary - if she didn’t have dual nationality, she couldn’t have her British citizenship revoked.
So if she didn’t have a claim on a Bangladeshi passport, there would be nothing that could be done….
Would an actual rejection to her application for a Bangladeshi passport (I presume she hasn't applied for one, and that she would be rejected if she were to) help her case in the UK courts?
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
You're quite amusing sometimes, and you write well, even when you wish to shock.
This is not one of those occasions. Your description of Begum is beneath you and you wouldn't, I think, use those words in a different context.
Well I wouldn’t use them if talking about yer mum, no. But with regards to Begum, which words precisely do you find objectionable?
As you ask, capitalised 'bitch'. Not very keen on 'rapey' either. Otherwise, not a hint of misogyny or racism.
I might —- MIGHT —- feel different if the UK had a track record of Home Secretaries one could feel confident would exercise such powers with extreme caution and prudence.
Unfortunately we have Suella Braverman, a woman who is most comfortable playing to the basest instincts of the public; who had to resign her own job for incompetent leaking; who seems to belong to some odd religious sect; and who serves only at the behest of a man who himself serves with the only grudging compliance of his own MPs having failed to win the support of around 140,000 coffin-dodging mental incompetents.
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
You're quite amusing sometimes, and you write well, even when you wish to shock.
This is not one of those occasions. Your description of Begum is beneath you and you wouldn't, I think, use those words in a different context.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't be ever realised.
You mean, let's hope he's right in his prediction that all his predictions are wrong?
Because at this point we're into Russell's paradox on naive set theory.
You've roused my pedantic side now.
Prof Till's statement that many of his predictions had been wrong was not itself a prediction, since it was made after the event (that his predictions were proven wrong).
So according to @Leon, every Brit who is a rapist/murderer should be stripped of their citizenship?
It’s also stupidly arbitrary - if she didn’t have dual nationality, she couldn’t have her British citizenship revoked.
So if she didn’t have a claim on a Bangladeshi passport, there would be nothing that could be done….
Would an actual rejection to her application for a Bangladeshi passport (I presume she hasn't applied for one, and that she would be rejected if she were to) help her case in the UK courts?
As I understand it, the courts are taking the view that the Bangladeshi authorities are just breaking their own law to deny her citizenship.
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
You're quite amusing sometimes, and you write well, even when you wish to shock.
This is not one of those occasions. Your description of Begum is beneath you and you wouldn't, I think, use those words in a different context.
Well I wouldn’t use them if talking about yer mum, no. But with regards to Begum, which words precisely do you find objectionable?
As you ask, capitalised 'bitch'. Not very keen on 'rapey' either. Otherwise, not a hint of misogyny or racism.
Shamima Begum kept a yazidi sex slave in a yard, who was chained up, for the purpose of being continuously raped by her murderous terrorist husband
That’s ‘rapey’ sorted. And call me Judge Dredd on Ket, but this alone firmly puts her in ‘bitch’ category as well. I know, I’m harsh
Humza getting a roasting at FM Questions, how embarrassing a Tory can slap you stupid: Douglas Ross on Humza Yousaf's time in office: "He was transport minister who drove without a licence, he delayed the dualling of the A9, and he clapped like a seal when Nicola Sturgeon launched a ferry with painted-on windows. https://twitter.com/HolyroodDaily/status/1628747308778024960
He (D Ross) needs to be careful. If he's too effective the Nats will take fright and fail to elect Humza.
‘A slippery slope’: A looming nationwide abortion pill ban could undermine the entire drug approval system https://www.statnews.com/2023/02/23/abortion-pill-fda-mifepristone-lawsuit-texas/ Soon after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a former Republican congressman made what might sound like an unusual offer. Did abortion pill makers want him to try to get federal legislation passed to explicitly stop states from restricting medications that have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration?
His concern was about more than abortion pills themselves. After his stint in Congress, Jim Greenwood had spent 15 years as the president and CEO of one of the biopharma industry’s main lobbying groups. He figured that the 20-year-old approval of mifepristone might be in jeopardy. If an attempted ban prevailed in court, he knew, it could undermine the country’s infrastructure for evaluating all drugs. “Could states ban vaccines of one kind or another? It’s a slippery slope,” he said, adding, “There are lots of anti-vaxxers in lots of state legislatures.”
Companies expressed interest in his proposal — but that sort of bill would need broad support, and Greenwood ran out of time before Democrats lost the House. And the scenario he worried about is now looming, not only in red states, but in the nation as a whole. An ultra-conservative federal judge, appointed by former President Trump, is presiding over a closely watched case challenging the FDA approval of mifepristone. If he sides with the anti-abortion groups that filed the lawsuit, the decision could potentially set a sweeping precedent. “We’re talking about a judge who is a non-scientist overriding an agency full of experts about the safety and efficacy of a drug,” said Greer Donley, an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh Law School. “That, to my knowledge, has never happened before.”…
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
And the PB experts on clinical oncology diagnosed Putin with days to live last April, while the PB geriatric medicine team diagnosed Putin with a range of terminal illnesses from Parkinson's to dementia to liver cancer.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
And the PB experts on clinical oncology diagnosed Putin with days to live last April, while the PB geriatric medicine team diagnosed Putin with a range of terminal illnesses from Parkinson's to dementia to liver cancer.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
All true. You could also add that the West's sanctions were going to bring Russia to its knees by August.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
And the PB experts on clinical oncology diagnosed Putin with days to live last April, while the PB geriatric medicine team diagnosed Putin with a range of terminal illnesses from Parkinson's to dementia to liver cancer.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
Don't forget Covid - hundreds of PB epidemiological experts came crawling knowledgeably out of the woodwork.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
And the PB experts on clinical oncology diagnosed Putin with days to live last April, while the PB geriatric medicine team diagnosed Putin with a range of terminal illnesses from Parkinson's to dementia to liver cancer.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
All true. You could also add that the West's sanctions were going to bring Russia to its knees by August.
The First Rule of Wars is that they are Unpredictable.
(That is why they should be stopped as soon as possible).
I have no idea how this War will end, but the outcomes are either bad, very bad, or apocalyptic.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
And the PB experts on clinical oncology diagnosed Putin with days to live last April, while the PB geriatric medicine team diagnosed Putin with a range of terminal illnesses from Parkinson's to dementia to liver cancer.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
No. There’s a greater number of experts on Bangladeshi nationality law here.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
And the PB experts on clinical oncology diagnosed Putin with days to live last April, while the PB geriatric medicine team diagnosed Putin with a range of terminal illnesses from Parkinson's to dementia to liver cancer.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
All true. You could also add that the West's sanctions were going to bring Russia to its knees by August.
I remember chuckling at Leon’s claim that Russia’s economy was in utter collapse.
However I am still nursing my wounds from predicting that Kate Forbes would not run.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
And the PB experts on clinical oncology diagnosed Putin with days to live last April, while the PB geriatric medicine team diagnosed Putin with a range of terminal illnesses from Parkinson's to dementia to liver cancer.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
All true. You could also add that the West's sanctions were going to bring Russia to its knees by August.
I remember chuckling at Leon’s claim that Russia’s economy was in utter collapse.
However I am still nursing my wounds from predicting that Kate Forbes would not run.
Did I say that? Citation required. Can’t recall that
However, I fully confess that I too - like many here - thought Russia would win in a few weeks
The obvious outlier for the Tories is Savanta's 31%, surely? Aside from that all those polls have the Tories in the 21-28 range.
The thing which really interest me is that of the nine firms, five have no track record at all of GB VI polling before the current parliament as far as I can tell.
The four to have had their methodologies tested by a general election are Savanta (31-45), Opinium (28-44) Deltapoll (28-50) and YouGov (22-50).
Now, perhaps the new firms are right and the established firms except YouGov are wrong. I'm not sure I'd be risking too much money based on it, though.
The obvious outlier for the Tories is Savanta's 31%, surely? Aside from that all those polls have the Tories in the 21-28 range.
The thing which really interest me is that of the nine firms, five have no track record at all of GB VI polling before the current parliament as far as I can tell.
The four to have had their methodologies tested by a general election are Savanta (31-45), Opinium (28-44) Deltapoll (28-50) and YouGov (22-50).
Now, perhaps the new firms are right and the established firms except YouGov are wrong. I'm not sure I'd be risking too much money based on it, though.
The new firms figures are pretty much spread across the same range as the established pollsters though.
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Shamima is an evil woman with no redeeming qualities, most of the country agrees with that statement.
I can live with that. But she is our evil woman with no redeeming qualities.
Yes. There seems to be a conflation of “she is guilty/evil” with “it is right that she have her citizenship removed”.
Personally I presume she is as guilty as sin, with zero redeeming features. But I don’t think the Home Sec should have the power to strip her (or my!) citizenship.
Indeed, people can now be stripped of their citizenship even if they do not have dual nationality, if the Home Sec believes they are eligible for another countries citizenship.
This would include most second generation immigrants and even third generation immigrants (like myself) so a considerable percentage of the population.
Just as well we don't have a capricious tyrant as Home Sec...
Given you can quite easily buy citizenship of St Kitts for $150k, the pool of people who are eligible for another citizenship is even larger. Perhaps a Corbynite Home Secretary will want to strip citizenship from other groups in time.
On the eve of Estonia´s independence day, we are hearing news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have broken further Russian units, Seems like the Russians have not been able to regroup and a significant push back might be underway. Russian reserves are now fully committed and yet they seem to be in real trouble close to Vuhledar.
Uplifting if it proves to be true.
Two weeks ago I went to a talk by Professor Geoffrey Till on the Ukraine war. It was a good talk, I posted about it here at the time.
I am struck, though, by Professor Till's feeling at that point (10th Feb) that the Russian spring offensive was already underway and that we should expect them to make significant gains.
He also acknowledged that he and all the other military strategists had been pretty much wrong about everything in this conflict to date; here's hoping his prediction that evening is another one that won't materialise.
Weren't PB strategists calling an end to the war by last April?
And the PB experts on clinical oncology diagnosed Putin with days to live last April, while the PB geriatric medicine team diagnosed Putin with a range of terminal illnesses from Parkinson's to dementia to liver cancer.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
All true. You could also add that the West's sanctions were going to bring Russia to its knees by August.
I remember chuckling at Leon’s claim that Russia’s economy was in utter collapse.
However I am still nursing my wounds from predicting that Kate Forbes would not run.
Did I say that? Citation required. Can’t recall that
However, I fully confess that I too - like many here - thought Russia would win in a few weeks
Nobody reckoned with the comedian the Ukrainians chose for a president.
Tbh I don’t think anyone on PB comes out of an Ukraine war futurology/post mortem particularly well. Everyone got multiple things wrong. From those that said the war would never happen to those that said Russia would win quickly to those that said Russia would collapse from sanctions: all were wrong
Did anyone predict from the outset that there would be a massive war but it would end up a slow stagnant verdun-like meatgrinder with no winner, even after a year?
If that pb-er exists, chapeau. I don’t know if they do exist
On seeing those favorability ratings in the header, I am reminded of a little oddity in American politics: In the 1952 presidential election, both Eisenhower and Stevenson had postive ratings. Voters liked both men.
So according to @Leon, every Brit who is a rapist/murderer should be stripped of their citizenship?
It’s also stupidly arbitrary - if she didn’t have dual nationality, she couldn’t have her British citizenship revoked.
So if she didn’t have a claim on a Bangladeshi passport, there would be nothing that could be done….
Would an actual rejection to her application for a Bangladeshi passport (I presume she hasn't applied for one, and that she would be rejected if she were to) help her case in the UK courts?
As I understand it, the courts are taking the view that the Bangladeshi authorities are just breaking their own law to deny her citizenship.
What's the point of having Colonies if they don't allow London to decide their rules?
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Shamima is an evil woman with no redeeming qualities, most of the country agrees with that statement.
I can live with that. But she is our evil woman with no redeeming qualities.
Yes. There seems to be a conflation of “she is guilty/evil” with “it is right that she have her citizenship removed”.
Personally I presume she is as guilty as sin, with zero redeeming features. But I don’t think the Home Sec should have the power to strip her (or my!) citizenship.
Indeed, people can now be stripped of their citizenship even if they do not have dual nationality, if the Home Sec believes they are eligible for another countries citizenship.
This would include most second generation immigrants and even third generation immigrants (like myself) so a considerable percentage of the population.
Just as well we don't have a capricious tyrant as Home Sec...
Given you can quite easily buy citizenship of St Kitts for $150k, the pool of people who are eligible for another citizenship is even larger. Perhaps a Corbynite Home Secretary will want to strip citizenship from other groups in time.
St Kitts is very expensive.
Estonia at €16,000 (if self-employed) is a bargain. Though the Estonian language proficiency test may be more of a challenge.
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Shamima is an evil woman with no redeeming qualities, most of the country agrees with that statement.
Ghislaine Maxwell fits that statement, yet the government has made no move to strip her of her British citizenship. She has French and USA citizenship to fall back on.
The obvious outlier for the Tories is Savanta's 31%, surely? Aside from that all those polls have the Tories in the 21-28 range.
The thing which really interest me is that of the nine firms, five have no track record at all of GB VI polling before the current parliament as far as I can tell.
The four to have had their methodologies tested by a general election are Savanta (31-45), Opinium (28-44) Deltapoll (28-50) and YouGov (22-50).
Now, perhaps the new firms are right and the established firms except YouGov are wrong. I'm not sure I'd be risking too much money based on it, though.
The new firms figures are pretty much spread across the same range as the established pollsters though.
Not really.
PP 21-48, R&W 24-51, Omnisis 25-48, Techne 27-48.
Which is the ninth firm? Wikipedia only lists these eight.
Zero comment on here that Keir has pledged to deliver the “fastest growing economy in the G7”.
That’s quite a hostage to fortune.
But weren't you earlier criticising the promises as vacuous? Can't both be true.
Personally I think it's daring and as you say somewhat a hostage to fortune, since who knows what miracles another G7 country might achieve, but it's a substantial aim.
Tbh I don’t think anyone on PB comes out of an Ukraine war futurology/post mortem particularly well. Everyone got multiple things wrong. From those that said the war would never happen to those that said Russia would win quickly to those that said Russia would collapse from sanctions: all were wrong
Did anyone predict from the outset that there would be a massive war but it would end up a slow stagnant verdun-like meatgrinder with no winner, even after a year?
If that pb-er exists, chapeau. I don’t know if they do exist
I predicted folk would develop amnesia over being a Putin fanboi
Tbh I don’t think anyone on PB comes out of an Ukraine war futurology/post mortem particularly well. Everyone got multiple things wrong. From those that said the war would never happen to those that said Russia would win quickly to those that said Russia would collapse from sanctions: all were wrong
Did anyone predict from the outset that there would be a massive war but it would end up a slow stagnant verdun-like meatgrinder with no winner, even after a year?
If that pb-er exists, chapeau. I don’t know if they do exist
Last year - in June or July - I said that Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations would come to an end at the end early in 2023, when they ran out of shells and young men to fling at Ukraine.
While I may be off by a couple of months, I think there's a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the offing, and - if it successful - then the war could end very quickly.
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Shamima is an evil woman with no redeeming qualities, most of the country agrees with that statement.
I can live with that. But she is our evil woman with no redeeming qualities.
Yes. There seems to be a conflation of “she is guilty/evil” with “it is right that she have her citizenship removed”.
Personally I presume she is as guilty as sin, with zero redeeming features. But I don’t think the Home Sec should have the power to strip her (or my!) citizenship.
Indeed, people can now be stripped of their citizenship even if they do not have dual nationality, if the Home Sec believes they are eligible for another countries citizenship.
This would include most second generation immigrants and even third generation immigrants (like myself) so a considerable percentage of the population.
Just as well we don't have a capricious tyrant as Home Sec...
It would also include most British Jews, who have a right to claim Israeli citizenship.
Zero comment on here that Keir has pledged to deliver the “fastest growing economy in the G7”.
That’s quite a hostage to fortune.
But weren't you earlier criticising the promises as vacuous? Can't both be true.
Personally I think it's daring and as you say somewhat a hostage to fortune, since who knows what miracles another G7 country might achieve, but it's a substantial aim.
No, I don’t have an issue really with the pledges, just the accompanying verbiage and defence.
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Isn't that point about this case that Shamima Begum is not deemed to have committed any offence whatsoever, but that the court simply confirmed that the law allows the Home Secretary to remove someone's citizenship purely on his/her own opinion, without any due process of law or right of appeal?
If that's what the law really says, then the court had no option to rule otherwise.
But equally if that's what the law says, it places the UK on a par with the worst of banana republics. That's 800 years plus after Magna Carta.
I think Begum should be tried for her offences in the countries where she committed them. I do not think she should have been stripped of her citizenship.
Tbh I don’t think anyone on PB comes out of an Ukraine war futurology/post mortem particularly well. Everyone got multiple things wrong. From those that said the war would never happen to those that said Russia would win quickly to those that said Russia would collapse from sanctions: all were wrong
Did anyone predict from the outset that there would be a massive war but it would end up a slow stagnant verdun-like meatgrinder with no winner, even after a year?
If that pb-er exists, chapeau. I don’t know if they do exist
I predicted folk would develop amnesia over being a Putin fanboi
I haven’t. Putin was absolutely right about Woke. He is ALSO a crazed autocratic maniac who should ideally fall out of a window
As others have said: no Twelve Monkeys? no Groundhog Day? no Donnie Darko? And they have Timecop and The Tomorrow War in there - pfft. Flight of the Navigator should be way higher, Avengers Endgame and Interstellar lower. Not sure how good the film is, but if it's anywhere near the book, then Time Traveller's Wife should be in the top 10. And the best on-screen time travel is the German series Dark, from Netflix: sumptuous
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Shamima is an evil woman with no redeeming qualities, most of the country agrees with that statement.
I can live with that. But she is our evil woman with no redeeming qualities.
Yes. There seems to be a conflation of “she is guilty/evil” with “it is right that she have her citizenship removed”.
Personally I presume she is as guilty as sin, with zero redeeming features. But I don’t think the Home Sec should have the power to strip her (or my!) citizenship.
Indeed, people can now be stripped of their citizenship even if they do not have dual nationality, if the Home Sec believes they are eligible for another countries citizenship.
This would include most second generation immigrants and even third generation immigrants (like myself) so a considerable percentage of the population.
Just as well we don't have a capricious tyrant as Home Sec...
It would also include most British Jews, who have a right to claim Israeli citizenship.
Everyone in Northern Ireland, too, on the equivalent basis of an Irish passport. And any GB resident who has enough Irish parentage to qualify.
Tbh I don’t think anyone on PB comes out of an Ukraine war futurology/post mortem particularly well. Everyone got multiple things wrong. From those that said the war would never happen to those that said Russia would win quickly to those that said Russia would collapse from sanctions: all were wrong
Did anyone predict from the outset that there would be a massive war but it would end up a slow stagnant verdun-like meatgrinder with no winner, even after a year?
If that pb-er exists, chapeau. I don’t know if they do exist
Last year - in June or July - I said that Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations would come to an end at the end early in 2023, when they ran out of shells and young men to fling at Ukraine.
While I may be off by a couple of months, I think there's a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the offing, and - if it successful - then the war could end very quickly.
I disagree. Putin and Russia are all in. Russia will not be defeated like this, ie with total Ukrainian victory
OTOH I can’t see how Russia wins, either. I predict a long bloody stalemate that ends with a Korean style partition and an exhausted armistice
The controversy over Begum, discussed here, is part of a general confusion over whether attacks by radical Islamists should be treated as part of a war, to be prosecuted under Western war rules, or as crimes to be prosecuted by ordinary judicial roceedings.
Or both, depending.
Quite naturally military men tend to favor the first, lawyers the second.)
(Full disclosure: I have been thinking about this problem for years, and have found no answer that fully satisfies me. I am inclined to think that captured terrorists should be held in captivity until the war ends, while recognizing that is unlikely to happen in the forseeable future. I assume most lawyers, in the US or the UK, would disagree with me on that.
But they might agee with me that we should prosecute terrorists who have committed what we consider war crimes.)
Tbh I don’t think anyone on PB comes out of an Ukraine war futurology/post mortem particularly well. Everyone got multiple things wrong. From those that said the war would never happen to those that said Russia would win quickly to those that said Russia would collapse from sanctions: all were wrong
Did anyone predict from the outset that there would be a massive war but it would end up a slow stagnant verdun-like meatgrinder with no winner, even after a year?
If that pb-er exists, chapeau. I don’t know if they do exist
I predicted folk would develop amnesia over being a Putin fanboi
I haven’t. Putin was absolutely right about Woke. He is ALSO a crazed autocratic maniac who should ideally fall out of a window
He’s getting his flabby arse handed to him by the rainbow flag waving Ukes.
Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership is the biggest concern that potential Labour voters have about the party entering government, new polling for The Times suggests today.
In a finding that will concern party strategists, the YouGov survey found that 15 per cent of people who would vote Labour if an election were called tomorrow have reservations of Starmer’s leadership.
It comes ahead of concerns about the party’s handling of the economy that is a worry for 14 per cent of potential Labour supporters and the 9 per cent who cite Brexit as a concern....
...But despite leading Labour to a record poll lead over the Conservatives, the YouGov poll, carried out earlier this week, found lingering concerns about Starmer’s leadership.
This was strongest among voters who backed the party at the last election, as well as women and older voters.
Surprisingly voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 were less likely to express concerns about Starmer’s leadership (16 per cent) than those who voted Labour (17 per cent). Liberal Democrat voters were the least likely to have concerns about his leadership.
In overall voting intention Labour were on 46 per cent, down four points, while the Tories increased by one point to 23 per cent.
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Shamima is an evil woman with no redeeming qualities, most of the country agrees with that statement.
Ghislaine Maxwell fits that statement, yet the government has made no move to strip her of her British citizenship. She has French and USA citizenship to fall back on.
They don't really need to though as she is going to be in a us prison for a long long time so its not needed....begum on the other hand would be proseletying down finsbury park mosque by now if we hadn't
Shamima Begum should be repatriated to the UK and tried here for whatever offences she is deemed to have committed.
imo she was a child when she went overseas and was then groomed which evidently had some degree of success.
Get her back, try her here and throw in some rehabilitation and counselling while you're at it.
Of course Shamima is one of those subjects that @Leon loves because he goes off on one and enjoys the outrage he hopes to provoke.
Shamima is a sad case. @Leon's response to her is also a sad case for that matter.
Shamima is an evil woman with no redeeming qualities, most of the country agrees with that statement.
I can live with that. But she is our evil woman with no redeeming qualities.
Yes. There seems to be a conflation of “she is guilty/evil” with “it is right that she have her citizenship removed”.
Personally I presume she is as guilty as sin, with zero redeeming features. But I don’t think the Home Sec should have the power to strip her (or my!) citizenship.
Indeed, people can now be stripped of their citizenship even if they do not have dual nationality, if the Home Sec believes they are eligible for another countries citizenship.
This would include most second generation immigrants and even third generation immigrants (like myself) so a considerable percentage of the population.
Just as well we don't have a capricious tyrant as Home Sec...
It would also include most British Jews, who have a right to claim Israeli citizenship.
Everyone in Northern Ireland, too, on the equivalent basis of an Irish passport. And any GB resident who has enough Irish parentage to qualify.
And more importantly my wife and two of our children!
Ms Regan has accepted invite to hustings: now waiting on Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf.
Is Miss REGAN...
VALUE?
FPT
I wish I knew the distribution of length of membership in the SNP in relation to the old days up to indyref, the big jump after indyref and the slower change to pro-Green/leftie social identity stuff under Ms Sturgeon. I'd be in a much better position to judge that.
Indeed. It's a hard one to call, but the reason I ask is that her campaign strategy seems to me to be a fairly straightforward one: avoid bigotry (Kate Forbidden) and incompetence (Humza Useless) and forge a moderate pro-Indy path.
Also pro-economy, IIRC. A9 and so on. I am certainly not ruling her out: quite the opposite. Yet without knowing how many of the pre-2015 folk left ...
Anyway, 24 hours to go before noms close.
“24 hours to go before noms close”
My take on it is it’s amazing to think new leader can be one of these three. Why did Nicola have to resign if opening Pandora’s Box is the outcome? SNP opponents are laughing their heads off one of these three as the new leader. So maybe the winner has’t declared yet. If Cherry enters for example, she wins.
Regan won’t win this. But she could get a good position from it and then sink or swim from what she does with this publicity and any cabinet Posts which come from this. And all that is dependent on the new leader ripping up Sturgeons position on trans rights, or so many promising talents stay outside the cabinet.
Kate should have won this by a country mile over Humza , but now it’s neck and neck between the two, very tight result. So even once it’s over, with such a split party it’s still not over.
The only certainty is currently betting markets haven’t a scooby Dooby cluesy what’s going on in this one.
The skeletons in the cupboard were rattling too much for Sturgeon, soon they will have to explain where the 667K missing ringfenced money went. Many others are potentially in the offing , no referendum and country going down the toilet so best before the fuzz or the pitchforks turned up. Hard to imagine why Cherry is not in , though she may have been waiting to see which of the roasters the Murrells would put up. Macbeth decided he had to keep his head down , so out of the assorted dross Murrells have selected the Hapless Humza as their sockpuppet. Hard to believe Regan will not win it unless Cherry makes a last minute appearance or the voting is rigged.
Isn’t MacBeth being advised by Three Crone Consultancy firm?
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
I don’t mind the fact that Keir is focusing on 5 things.
I do mind the fact that it’s waffly bollocks.
Unimpressive.
I don't think they are actually waffly. Having the highest growth rate amongst the G7 is a concrete and measurable metric. The issue is the target is unlikely to be met and if it is his policy decisions probably don't have a lot to do with it. It's not a useful commitment.
Useful commitments would be ones that are achievable but will only happen with intervention . For example the Labour pledge in 1997 to reduce class sizes to 30.
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
It's still more edifying than the six years of Tory psychodrama that he has inflicted on us.
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
I would vote for the Slutsky Decomposition Party. They would make errors, but at least they'd be uncorrelated.
Tory vote is probably down to core, edges of the core etc.
Just checked 5 polls this week. Lab lead is
28 YG 27 R&W 22 Deltapoll 17 Kantar 14 Savanta
Average 21.6
The Kantor being the most interesting one, firstly for it reappearance, and secondly for its drop in Conservative support and 17 point Labour lead. Quite hideous for Tory’s in Kantor terms that one.
Where did Savanta find their recent sample? There must be a hamlet somewhere waiting for BT to restore their contact with outside world last six months 🤭
I don’t mind the fact that Keir is focusing on 5 things.
I do mind the fact that it’s waffly bollocks.
Unimpressive.
I don't think they are actually waffly. Having the highest growth rate amongst the G7 is a concrete and measurable metric. The issue is the target is unlikely to be met and if it is his policy decisions probably don't have a lot to do with it. It's not a useful commitment.
Useful commitments would be ones that are achievable but will only happen with intervention . For example the Labour pledge in 1997 to reduce class sizes to 30.
Fastest growth rate in the G7 isn't actually as measurable as it sounds. You have quarterly figures, annual figures, averages over a shorter or longer period of time. So you can be fairly clear if you've NOT got the fastest growth rate, but there might well be three or so G7 countries that could credibly argue they have the crown at any given time.
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
I would vote for the Slutsky Decomposition Party. They would make errors, but at least they'd be uncorrelated.
In Borgen, it’s usually the Moderate Democrats feuding with the Democratic Moderates.
Just a reminder that *less than a year ago* UK lawyers working for the guy now toddling around Bakhmut with a machine gun dressed in military fatigues were claiming he had suffered “great distress” from allegations he had *anything* to do with mercenary activity. https://twitter.com/MilesMJohnson/status/1628785478542544896
Let this rapey evil genocidal unrepentant Britain-hating gay-hating Yazidi-slaving Islamo-fascist BITCH rot to death in her squalid self-made hell
OR
Bring her back at vast expense and give her lots of “rehabilitation” and “counselling” as desired by @TOPPING and @Anabobazina and as she deserves, the poor wee lamb
Let the British people decide
The really interesting bit - how our Five Eyes Spies groomed her to get her out there, we will never know sadly, to aid our understanding. My only conclusion is they needed spies in the enemy, not one of those three girls I suspect, but the way spy agency’s have always worked is to use ordinary people in various ways as cover in the operations. Like the US family man saleman who thought he was going to seal good order in his trip to Moscow, who got snipered.
I’m patriotic, but I couldn’t do a job like that.
What’s the closest you’ve come to being in the spying game Leon? Was it nearly executed for being a spy in the Middle East?
There’s a line in Last Panthers where she’s told a journalist from the Telegraph wants to talk to her and she asks “is he MI5 or MI6?”
Actually this seems to broadly tally with Rochdale Pioneer’s view.
Navigating extra Brexit-imposed cost and bureaucracy of getting the fresh fruit and vegetables across the Channel is clearly proving too costly for some producers, which is why tomatoes are reaching supermarkets in France, Belgium or the Netherlands but not Britain.
TLDR, it’s not because Brexit, but it’s happening in the UK and not the rest of the EU (bar Ireland) because of Brexit.
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
I would vote for the Slutsky Decomposition Party. They would make errors, but at least they'd be uncorrelated.
Tbh I don’t think anyone on PB comes out of an Ukraine war futurology/post mortem particularly well. Everyone got multiple things wrong. From those that said the war would never happen to those that said Russia would win quickly to those that said Russia would collapse from sanctions: all were wrong
Did anyone predict from the outset that there would be a massive war but it would end up a slow stagnant verdun-like meatgrinder with no winner, even after a year?
If that pb-er exists, chapeau. I don’t know if they do exist
Last year - in June or July - I said that Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations would come to an end at the end early in 2023, when they ran out of shells and young men to fling at Ukraine.
While I may be off by a couple of months, I think there's a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the offing, and - if it successful - then the war could end very quickly.
Russia is falling down the technological ladder - broken back war as predicted since the 50s.
They are digging lines if trenches all the way to the other side of the Crimea…
Human wave plus limited artillery - who thought that was Russian warfare? It was all about Su-57s and T14s not so long ago.
Ms Regan has accepted invite to hustings: now waiting on Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf.
Is Miss REGAN...
VALUE?
FPT
I wish I knew the distribution of length of membership in the SNP in relation to the old days up to indyref, the big jump after indyref and the slower change to pro-Green/leftie social identity stuff under Ms Sturgeon. I'd be in a much better position to judge that.
Indeed. It's a hard one to call, but the reason I ask is that her campaign strategy seems to me to be a fairly straightforward one: avoid bigotry (Kate Forbidden) and incompetence (Humza Useless) and forge a moderate pro-Indy path.
Also pro-economy, IIRC. A9 and so on. I am certainly not ruling her out: quite the opposite. Yet without knowing how many of the pre-2015 folk left ...
Anyway, 24 hours to go before noms close.
“24 hours to go before noms close”
My take on it is it’s amazing to think new leader can be one of these three. Why did Nicola have to resign if opening Pandora’s Box is the outcome? SNP opponents are laughing their heads off one of these three as the new leader. So maybe the winner has’t declared yet. If Cherry enters for example, she wins.
Regan won’t win this. But she could get a good position from it and then sink or swim from what she does with this publicity and any cabinet Posts which come from this. And all that is dependent on the new leader ripping up Sturgeons position on trans rights, or so many promising talents stay outside the cabinet.
Kate should have won this by a country mile over Humza , but now it’s neck and neck between the two, very tight result. So even once it’s over, with such a split party it’s still not over.
The only certainty is currently betting markets haven’t a scooby Dooby cluesy what’s going on in this one.
The skeletons in the cupboard were rattling too much for Sturgeon, soon they will have to explain where the 667K missing ringfenced money went. Many others are potentially in the offing , no referendum and country going down the toilet so best before the fuzz or the pitchforks turned up. Hard to imagine why Cherry is not in , though she may have been waiting to see which of the roasters the Murrells would put up. Macbeth decided he had to keep his head down , so out of the assorted dross Murrells have selected the Hapless Humza as their sockpuppet. Hard to believe Regan will not win it unless Cherry makes a last minute appearance or the voting is rigged.
Isn’t MacBeth being advised by Three Crone Consultancy firm?
Actually sorry, after an expensive contract with image consultants, they are now known as Crone Three Consultancy.
I don’t mind the fact that Keir is focusing on 5 things.
I do mind the fact that it’s waffly bollocks.
Unimpressive.
I don't think they are actually waffly. Having the highest growth rate amongst the G7 is a concrete and measurable metric. The issue is the target is unlikely to be met and if it is his policy decisions probably don't have a lot to do with it. It's not a useful commitment.
Useful commitments would be ones that are achievable but will only happen with intervention . For example the Labour pledge in 1997 to reduce class sizes to 30.
Fastest growth rate in the G7 isn't actually as measurable as it sounds. You have quarterly figures, annual figures, averages over a shorter or longer period of time. So you can be fairly clear if you've NOT got the fastest growth rate, but there might well be three or so G7 countries that could credibly argue they have the crown at any given time.
The pledge is for highest "sustained" growth. Wiggle room, definitely, but less than YoY wouldn't qualify IMO.
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
I would vote for the Slutsky Decomposition Party. They would make errors, but at least they'd be uncorrelated.
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
I would vote for the Slutsky Decomposition Party. They would make errors, but at least they'd be uncorrelated.
What’s their leaders stance on same sex marriage?
Their number one policy is decomposing Slutskys.
Why does it feel like you are lifting this from Roald Dahl?
David Cameron actually appeared in Last Panthers - he played the part of a total ****. Maybe he prefers that series.
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
I would vote for the Slutsky Decomposition Party. They would make errors, but at least they'd be uncorrelated.
What’s their leaders stance on same sex marriage?
Their number one policy is decomposing Slutskys.
David Cameron actually appeared in Last Panthers - he played the part of a total ****. Maybe he prefers that series.
Comments
So Sturgeon's personal enforcer leaves with her.
https://thenational.scot/news/23341486.police-scotland-chief-constable-step-five-years/
Livingstone set up the "Salmond Squad" who interviewed 400 people over 2 years.
They liaised with Murrell and Ruddick in getting up the false allegations.
https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1628718179789799427
I am certainly not a PB (or any other sort of) war strategist but I fully expected Ukraine to collapse within weeks.
So if she didn’t have a claim on a Bangladeshi passport, there would be nothing that could be done….
(1) The court ruled that there was a right to deprive her of citizenship if there were national security grounds, and agreed that the Home Secretary had made that argument, or
(2) The court ruled that it was the Home Secretary to decide on national security grounds, and given that he had made the decision, didn't reach any conclusion about whether his decsion was justified.
Your previous comment seemed to imply (1). My impression was (2).
This is not one of those occasions. Your description of Begum is beneath you and you wouldn't, I think, use those words in a different context.
Because at this point we're into Russell's paradox on naive set theory.
The War of The Triple Alliance says hi.
You missed the word juvenile out.
Just as well I'm not the President of Russia!
Unfortunately we have Suella Braverman, a woman who is most comfortable playing to the basest instincts of the public; who had to resign her own job for incompetent leaking; who seems to belong to some odd religious sect; and who serves only at the behest of a man who himself serves with the only grudging compliance of his own MPs having failed to win the support of around 140,000 coffin-dodging mental incompetents.
Democracy and rule of law this ain’t.
Ad infinitum, &c
Prof Till's statement that many of his predictions had been wrong was not itself a prediction, since it was made after the event (that his predictions were proven wrong).
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eat-turnips-amid-tomato-shortage-environment-secretary-therese-coffey-says_uk_63f7609de4b0e2590d41ee69
Turnip passata for our pasta bake tomorrow then.
That’s ‘rapey’ sorted. And call me Judge Dredd on Ket, but this alone firmly puts her in ‘bitch’ category as well. I know, I’m harsh
Every single one has Lab in the range 45 to 51 - ie 48 +/- 3.
So assume Lab is on 48.
But for Con the range is greater - 21 to 31.
PeoplePolling consistently has Con lower than anyone else - which then just leaves YouGov as a possible outlier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://www.statnews.com/2023/02/23/abortion-pill-fda-mifepristone-lawsuit-texas/
Soon after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a former Republican congressman made what might sound like an unusual offer. Did abortion pill makers want him to try to get federal legislation passed to explicitly stop states from restricting medications that have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration?
His concern was about more than abortion pills themselves. After his stint in Congress, Jim Greenwood had spent 15 years as the president and CEO of one of the biopharma industry’s main lobbying groups. He figured that the 20-year-old approval of mifepristone might be in jeopardy. If an attempted ban prevailed in court, he knew, it could undermine the country’s infrastructure for evaluating all drugs. “Could states ban vaccines of one kind or another? It’s a slippery slope,” he said, adding, “There are lots of anti-vaxxers in lots of state legislatures.”
Companies expressed interest in his proposal — but that sort of bill would need broad support, and Greenwood ran out of time before Democrats lost the House. And the scenario he worried about is now looming, not only in red states, but in the nation as a whole. An ultra-conservative federal judge, appointed by former President Trump, is presiding over a closely watched case challenging the FDA approval of mifepristone. If he sides with the anti-abortion groups that filed the lawsuit, the decision could potentially set a sweeping precedent. “We’re talking about a judge who is a non-scientist overriding an agency full of experts about the safety and efficacy of a drug,” said Greer Donley, an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh Law School. “That, to my knowledge, has never happened before.”…
In the meantime, the huge numbers of trained commentators on Kremlinology on PB confidently predicted that Putin would be overthrown very shortly by an internal coup.
Only on the subject of Scotland does PB have more experts.
(That is why they should be stopped as soon as possible).
I have no idea how this War will end, but the outcomes are either bad, very bad, or apocalyptic.
As you were, carry on.
However I am still nursing my wounds from predicting that Kate Forbes would not run.
However, I fully confess that I too - like many here - thought Russia would win in a few weeks
The four to have had their methodologies tested by a general election are Savanta (31-45), Opinium (28-44) Deltapoll (28-50) and YouGov (22-50).
Now, perhaps the new firms are right and the established firms except YouGov are wrong. I'm not sure I'd be risking too much money based on it, though.
https://twitter.com/umairh/status/1628807357542158336?s=46&t=SnetLk3SGA3w3YsMwRKJBQ
Did anyone predict from the outset that there would be a massive war but it would end up a slow stagnant verdun-like meatgrinder with no winner, even after a year?
If that pb-er exists, chapeau. I don’t know if they do exist
And it showed in the election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_United_States_presidential_election
Even though he lost in a landslide, Stevenson won more votes than Truman had in 1948. (In fact he won more votes than Truman, Thurmond, and Wallace combined.)
Now, in the US, in our national politics, we are seeing, more and more, choices between candidates who have net negative approval ratings.
(How does that song go? Ah yes, more and more Americans are saying "[we] don't like anybody very much.")
That’s quite a hostage to fortune.
Estonia at €16,000 (if self-employed) is a bargain. Though the Estonian language proficiency test may be more of a challenge.
It says something when Douglas Ross can humiliate you !!
https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1628749087301304321?t=-0q0Npa2vZLhAXkBsdm53A&s=19
She has French and USA citizenship to fall back on.
PP 21-48, R&W 24-51, Omnisis 25-48, Techne 27-48.
Which is the ninth firm? Wikipedia only lists these eight.
Personally I think it's daring and as you say somewhat a hostage to fortune, since who knows what miracles another G7 country might achieve, but it's a substantial aim.
Life expectancy in the USA: 76.4 years
Life expectancy in the UK: 80.7 years
While I may be off by a couple of months, I think there's a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the offing, and - if it successful - then the war could end very quickly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Time_Machine_(1960_film)
OTOH I can’t see how Russia wins, either. I predict a long bloody stalemate that ends with a Korean style partition and an exhausted armistice
Or both, depending.
Quite naturally military men tend to favor the first, lawyers the second.)
(Full disclosure: I have been thinking about this problem for years, and have found no answer that fully satisfies me. I am inclined to think that captured terrorists should be held in captivity until the war ends, while recognizing that is unlikely to happen in the forseeable future. I assume most lawyers, in the US or the UK, would disagree with me on that.
But they might agee with me that we should prosecute terrorists who have committed what we consider war crimes.)
Slava Woke Ukraini!
Or even whether this is “Brexit”, I really don’t know.
It just increasingly seems from the outside that the wheels have fallen off.
In a finding that will concern party strategists, the YouGov survey found that 15 per cent of people who would vote Labour if an election were called tomorrow have reservations of Starmer’s leadership.
It comes ahead of concerns about the party’s handling of the economy that is a worry for 14 per cent of potential Labour supporters and the 9 per cent who cite Brexit as a concern....
...But despite leading Labour to a record poll lead over the Conservatives, the YouGov poll, carried out earlier this week, found lingering concerns about Starmer’s leadership.
This was strongest among voters who backed the party at the last election, as well as women and older voters.
Surprisingly voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 were less likely to express concerns about Starmer’s leadership (16 per cent) than those who voted Labour (17 per cent). Liberal Democrat voters were the least likely to have concerns about his leadership.
In overall voting intention Labour were on 46 per cent, down four points, while the Tories increased by one point to 23 per cent.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-speech-rishi-sunak-ben-wallace-latest-news-live-2023-lp8rlkw58
Presumably the Tories will be happy when they’re reduced to only the rump of Boris nutters
I've been saying for a while Starmer has yet to seal the deal.
I can’t be bothered watching Lars Fjordjhhkalla attempt a coup against Ana-Greta Longstocking in order to size control of the Slutsky Decomposition Party.
Useful commitments would be ones that are achievable but will only happen with intervention . For example the Labour pledge in 1997 to reduce class sizes to 30.
Where did Savanta find their recent sample? There must be a hamlet somewhere waiting for BT to restore their contact with outside world last six months 🤭
https://twitter.com/MilesMJohnson/status/1628785478542544896
Helpfully the Tories had already published a turnip cookery book.
https://twitter.com/Baileyphoto1/status/1628742226237956096?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1628742226237956096|twgr^c106df7313115eca68abff33ede0dee86cd3d69e|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/23/food-shortages-environment-secretary-urges-britons-cherish-turnips
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/02/23/fact-check-is-brexit-to-blame-for-britains-fruit-and-vegetable-shortages
My only conclusion is they needed spies in the enemy, not one of those three girls I suspect, but the way spy agency’s have always worked is to use ordinary people in various ways as cover in the operations. Like the US family man saleman who thought he was going to seal good order in his trip to Moscow, who got snipered.
I’m patriotic, but I couldn’t do a job like that.
What’s the closest you’ve come to being in the spying game Leon? Was it nearly executed for being a spy in the Middle East?
There’s a line in Last Panthers where she’s told a journalist from the Telegraph wants to talk to her and she asks “is he MI5 or MI6?”
Navigating extra Brexit-imposed cost and bureaucracy of getting the fresh fruit and vegetables across the Channel is clearly proving too costly for some producers, which is why tomatoes are reaching supermarkets in France, Belgium or the Netherlands but not Britain.
TLDR, it’s not because Brexit, but it’s happening in the UK and not the rest of the EU (bar Ireland) because of Brexit.
They are digging lines if trenches all the way to the other side of the Crimea…
Human wave plus limited artillery - who thought that was Russian warfare? It was all about Su-57s and T14s not so long ago.
What he said: These missions will form the backbone of the Labour manifesto. The pillars of the next Labour government.
What he meant: Clear about metaphors and focused on mixing them.
What he said: If we’re going to make it work it will need a totally new mindset.
What he meant: Lobotomies will be available on the NHS.
What he said: I’m not concerned about whether investment or expertise comes from the public or private sector – I just want to get the job done.
What he meant: I am my own person. I have never heard of this “Tony Blair”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/keir-starmer-five-missions-speech-b2288076.html
David Cameron actually appeared in Last Panthers - he played the part of a total ****. Maybe he prefers that series.