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Huge blow for the SNP in new Scottish YouGov poll – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    edited February 2023
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
    I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.

    People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
    Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly.

    The 2010 to 2015 Tory and LD coalition government was more socially liberal than most Labour governments have been
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Beware of false Dawn’s, etc. But would be a game changer indeed. Even a partial move in this direction is catastrophic for Sunak's hope's.

    Dawn’s what?
    Curse your swiftness!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,771
    Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints

    This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)



  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    JPJ2 said:

    Labour are saying "make Brexit work"-that is an enormous NO NO for the younger age group in Scotland (anybody under 55) and you can be sure the SNP will hammer that message in the General Election.

    It would be amazing if Labour failed to make some gains in Scotland, especially in Glasgow and surrounds, where most of the group of pro-independence but still voting Labour even in 2019 reside. Tory direct switchers to Labour will help them. Tories in Scotland will be lucky to get ZERO.

    My best current thoughts are Robertson as SNP Leader with Forbes (if she is prepared to do it) as his deputy FM. Holyrood election (2026 or earlier if an opportunity presents) switched to from GE for de facto referendum. Sure, there will be a lot of squeeking from those who want independence now, but presented with a ballot paper at any point in the future would such people really vote against independence?

    More under 55s in Scotland back Brexit than oppose homosexual marriage and oppose abortion if Kate Forbes joins the SNP leadership.

    Starmer's would be a softer Brexit than now anyway
    Talking of which:

    From @DeltapollUK via email newsletter. #EURef2 vi" Rejoin 52 (+4); Stay Out 43 (-2). Fwork 10-13.2 (ch since 3-6.2).

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1626175511566118912


    Not enough (yet) for a rejoin referendum. And whilst it's maddening for some of those who think that Britain took a wrong turn in 2016, patience is a better strategy than "Referendum NOW".
    43% Stay Out almost double the current Tory voteshare too.

    So little sign of the Tories abandoning Brexit even if they go to Opposition
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    Oh dear, what a shame. Never mind. 😉
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    HYUFD said:


    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
    I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.

    People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
    Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly
    It seems somewhat less common now, but for a while liberal was just being used to mean good, hence some surprise when 'good' people did not take a liberal option.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    This article really ought to have included Trump.

    Republican losers look to run again in ’24 — and the party’s at odds how to stop them
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/17/midterm-losers-gop-primaries-00083137
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,216
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Beware of false Dawn’s, etc. But would be a game changer indeed. Even a partial move in this direction is catastrophic for Sunak's hope's.

    Dawn’s what?
    Curse your swiftness!
    Or, curse my cunning in re-editing your post back to how it was first submitted, rather than to how it had been edited by the time I clicked on ‘post comment’…. ;)
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    I make this result, if repeated at the next election:

    SNP 26,
    Labour 22,
    Conservative 6,
    Lib Dem 5.

    But quite a few seats would really be too close to call.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    The short sightedness on legal reforms in the name of cheap headlines is one of the more depressing aspects of politics as it genuinely seems cross party.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    edited February 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Also the poll antedates her resignation.
    WTF is that monstrosity?

    PREDATES!

    Antedates indeed! Pah!
    It's in Chambers Dictionary. 1993 edition. And probably my older ones downstairs. Perfectly OK.

    Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.

    But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.
    Predates ->

    "I was going to resign today, but the YouGov poll ate my resignation, and I took it as a sign".

    Obvious confusion avoided, surely?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,216
    edited February 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
    I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.

    People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
    Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly.

    The 2010 to 2015 Tory and LD coalition government was more socially liberal than most Labour governments have been
    Labour is horrendously authoritarian; that has long been my principal concern about, and difference with, them. That the behaviour of your own Tories has got me to the position of contemplating voting for them next time is more a comment on your side than on theirs.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    nico679 said:

    I’ve no doubt it will swing back to a degree if the SNP find a good leader but I doubt we’ll see the excellent polling of the past .

    Sturgeon was very much the face of independence, passion , charisma in bucket loads . You’d go on that journey to independence because of her .

    Well, not really.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:


    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
    I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.

    People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
    Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly
    It seems somewhat less common now, but for a while liberal was just being used to mean good, hence some surprise when 'good' people did not take a liberal option.
    The term 'liberal' is not a set of policies. It's a procedure for approaching all issues: openness to the arguments of those with whom you disagree, and so a passionate commitment to freedom of thought; and maximum personal freedom and minimum constraints consistent with the principle of not harming others.

    As the liberal Economist keeps pointing out these once self evident principles need a new generation of upholders.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited February 2023

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    And the moral is what it always is.

    Don't make promises you can't keep. It works brilliantly for a bit, but always bites you on the bum in the end.

    Yes, Boris, I am looking at you.
    I'm not sure that is the takeaway most people would have unfortunately.

    The moral seems to be that if you're brazen enough you can defy gravity for a lot longer than people think. Sure the bum gets bit eventually, but grifting leaders will always think they are different. Or at least can enjoy it while it lasts.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,116
    algarkirk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can someone explain the Nicola Bulley missing person story to me please? What have I missed, were all these private detectives and search teams hired by the family or by the media? It sounds like a total mess, watching from afar.

    It's a missing person case that ticks all the media and social media boxes, with the additional element that there appears to be no direct evidence at all but some indirect evidence, and the further additional element that there is, tragically, a chance that it will never be resolved, and finally there is an indeterminate number of possibilities, all of which are difficult or impossible to follow up.
    I'd add that the police were clearly aware from the start of the circumstances around the home visit of the police to her home a few weeks before - something the public is not privvy too. I suspect this was one of the reasons that they favour the drowning hypothesis so strongly (that and the seeming lack of evidence of anybody else nearby at the time). The police have released this info as I think they are frustrated by the criticism of their stance.
    I also heard a retired police detective suggesting that mistakes were made at the scene very early - the bench and surrounding areas needed to be treated as potential crime scenes, but were not. Possibly this relates to the prior info. Without being overly insensitive, its not impossible the earlier police involvement was suicide related.

    Its struck the public chord because she is a classic everywoman (see also Sarah Everard). How many women see themselves in her? Taken the kids to school, now walking the dog and juggling remote working? Add into that the sheer lack of any progress and its baffling.

    My guess is that she did go into the water and potentially floated out to sea (puffy style coat, rather than heavier clothing that would tend to keep a body more localised in the river. But its all rather distasteful and sad for the family and friends, and worse without closure.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    Pro_Rata said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Also the poll antedates her resignation.
    WTF is that monstrosity?

    PREDATES!

    Antedates indeed! Pah!
    It's in Chambers Dictionary. 1993 edition. And probably my older ones downstairs. Perfectly OK.

    Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.

    But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.
    Predates ->

    "I was going to resign today, but the YouGov poll ate my resignation, and I took it as a sign".

    Obvious confusion avoided, surely?
    That's pre-empt, surely? A predates B requires that both A and B must have happened to be located in a timeline relative to one another. A pre-empts B means that A stopped B from happening when B otherwise would. Or am I missing something?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,220
    edited February 2023
    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    The short sightedness on legal reforms in the name of cheap headlines is one of the more depressing aspects of politics as it genuinely seems cross party.
    The short sightedness on legal reforms in the name of cheap headlines is one of the more depressing aspects of politics as it genuinely seems cross party.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:


    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
    I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.

    People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
    Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly
    It seems somewhat less common now, but for a while liberal was just being used to mean good, hence some surprise when 'good' people did not take a liberal option.
    The term 'liberal' is not a set of policies. It's a procedure for approaching all issues: openness to the arguments of those with whom you disagree, and so a passionate commitment to freedom of thought; and maximum personal freedom and minimum constraints consistent with the principle of not harming others.

    As the liberal Economist keeps pointing out these once self evident principles need a new generation of upholders.

    Ed Davey's Orange Book LDs are probably closest to it
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.

    I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.

    It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable

    This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?

    It isn’t the Nits


    No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    edited February 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Also the poll antedates her resignation.
    WTF is that monstrosity?

    PREDATES!

    Antedates indeed! Pah!
    It's in Chambers Dictionary. 1993 edition. And probably my older ones downstairs. Perfectly OK.

    Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.

    But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.
    Predates ->

    "I was going to resign today, but the YouGov poll ate my resignation, and I took it as a sign".

    Obvious confusion avoided, surely?
    That's pre-empt, surely? A predates B requires that both A and B must have happened to be located in a timeline relative to one another. A pre-empts B means that A stopped B from happening when B otherwise would. Or am I missing something?
    Maybe it was forced enough to deserve a "whoosh" -

    The lion predated the zebra
    The dog predated my homework
    The YouGov poll predated Sturgeon's resignation

    I'd naturally like 'on' in the first two sentences, but predate can be either transitive or intransitive apparently.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,826
    edited February 2023

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.

    All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are hardly going to be coming at it unbiassed.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,087
    Angus Robertson then - anything above evens is value? Or not?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    New map of Scottish constituencies on today's Yougov shows Labour regaining most of the central belt.

    The SNP are reduced back more to their old heartlands of the Highlands and North East along with some of the South West.

    It would be a party looking more like Forbes than Sturgeon

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416?s=20
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    WillG said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    Labour was always unionist and is now Brexiter in Scotland. Another complication. Mr S has to appeal to the Red Wall in England etc. etc.
    You might have a point if we were still in the EU. But we're not.
    Do you think that Labour would be proposing to leave the EU if we were still in it? Obviously not.
    So to paint Labour as a Brexit party is way off the mark.
    As I have said many times, Brexit is not a policy issue, it is a past event. The related policy issue is joining the EU (whether formally or in practice), and the viability of a politician's position should be judged accordingly.
    Consider my own position:

    For most of my life (but not currently), I have been a Liberal/LibDem member, and thus am inherently resistant to voting tactically.

    Yet I have sufficient awareness of the fact that I relied upon Labour tactical votes to get me elected six times running as a LibDem councillor in London, and that most LibDem MPs rely on the same lending of support. And I desperately want to see this risible May-clown-lunatic-Sunak Tory government receive its just desserts.

    Thus, likely to end up in the Isle of Wight East seat at the next election (less safe for the Tories than IOW West which Seely will defend), I should be open to the possibility of backing the Labour candidate to avoid being landed with another Tory MP.

    My criteria for lending them my vote are:

    - that the local candidate has a track record of co-operating across parties and isn’t a Labour Party tribalist (I have as yet no idea who they might put up);

    - that Labour makes some sort of commitment to recognise the errors of the Tory approach to Brexit and intends to mend the disruption to free trade and travel that Brexit has delivered;

    - that Labour signs up to political reform including abolishing the Lords (so far, a tick) and changing the voting system for the Commons (so far, a fail)

    As yet, I am not seeing it.
    In 2019 Labour were 32% behind the Tories in 2nd place. I can't see them ever winning in the IoW because well they're Labour.
    The IoW has had a Lib Dem MP, in fact two, but they aren't currently in contention. The Greens maybe?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,087
    Nigelb said:

    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000

    I've read plenty about Trumpworld and I'd have to say that in an absolutely top class field of fruitcakes Sydney Powell just about edges it for me.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited February 2023
    Nigelb said:

    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000

    Hard to prove actual malice as the required standard IIUC, but its compelling if they were so foolish as to write things so plainly.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    Pro_Rata said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Also the poll antedates her resignation.
    WTF is that monstrosity?

    PREDATES!

    Antedates indeed! Pah!
    It's in Chambers Dictionary. 1993 edition. And probably my older ones downstairs. Perfectly OK.

    Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.

    But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.
    Predates ->

    "I was going to resign today, but the YouGov poll ate my resignation, and I took it as a sign".

    Obvious confusion avoided, surely?
    That's pre-empt, surely? A predates B requires that both A and B must have happened to be located in a timeline relative to one another. A pre-empts B means that A stopped B from happening when B otherwise would. Or am I missing something?
    Maybe it was forced enough to deserve a "whoosh" -

    The lion predated the zebra
    The dog predated my homework
    The YouGov poll predated Sturgeon's resignation

    I'd naturally like 'on' in the first two sentences, but predate can be either transitive or intransitive apparently.
    Sorry, yes, of course - I was so mentally fixated on the pre/ante prefix choice I didn't remember the alternative reading. Thanks.

    'Predation on zebras' is definitely the correct wording for the abstract noun version, so predate on is technically right, but then that invites the simpler wording 'prey on' in non-technical contexts.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    HYUFD said:

    New map of Scottish constituencies on today's Yougov shows Labour regaining most of the central belt.

    The SNP are reduced back more to their old heartlands of the Highlands and North East along with some of the South West.

    It would be a party looking more like Forbes than Sturgeon

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416?s=20

    You are forgetting that Scotland is different. There is Holyrood as well. Which has a very different votijng system.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,087
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.

    I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.

    It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable

    This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?

    It isn’t the Nits


    No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
    You make it sound like Scotland is about to get its Bus Pass and spend more time with the grandkids.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,220
    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.

    All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
    Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.

    AKA give the kneecappers a job
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.

    I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.

    It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable

    This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?

    It isn’t the Nits


    No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
    You make it sound like Scotland is about to get its Bus Pass and spend more time with the grandkids.
    No, but by the time the next chance for a referendum comes around it will be.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,220
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000

    I've read plenty about Trumpworld and I'd have to say that in an absolutely top class field of fruitcakes Sydney Powell just about edges it for me.
    Only if you restrict it to "One the surface, superficially sane, but actually speaking in tongues with the trappings of sanity".
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,826

    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.

    All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
    Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.

    AKA give the kneecappers a job
    It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,220
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.

    All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
    Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.

    AKA give the kneecappers a job
    It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
    The irony is that, in Labour there is an animus against the voluntary parts of the justice system - Magistrates are seen as all Tory Toffs (long been nonsense). There was even call to get rid of Special Constables.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,842
    Ouch. 13 years for the Russian spy at the British embassy in Germany.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/17/david-smith-spy-sentence-british-embassy-russia/
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    New map of Scottish constituencies on today's Yougov shows Labour regaining most of the central belt.

    The SNP are reduced back more to their old heartlands of the Highlands and North East along with some of the South West.

    It would be a party looking more like Forbes than Sturgeon

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416?s=20

    Baxter gives (new boundaries):

    SNP 27 seats (-21)
    SLab 23 seats (+22)
    SCon 5 seats (-1)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,980
    Sandpit said:

    Ouch. 13 years for the Russian spy at the British embassy in Germany.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/17/david-smith-spy-sentence-british-embassy-russia/

    Ex Rock Ape so he'll only be able to count to 11 anyway using his fingers, toes and cock.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.

    I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.

    It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable

    This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?

    It isn’t the Nits


    No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
    You make it sound like Scotland is about to get its Bus Pass and spend more time with the grandkids.
    No, but by the time the next chance for a referendum comes around it will be.
    Is there something you know about the end of the world that you're not telling us?

    If so, what are the betting implications?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,220
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.

    All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
    Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.

    AKA give the kneecappers a job
    It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
    I recall the upset here a while back, when I related the story of the hedge fund manager who hired private security for his village. Apparently having private security guards just watching the local criminals was a bad thing.

    Can you imagine if he'd got to be some kind of ersatz magistrate?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    edited February 2023
    Not sure if already posted (news overnight):

    Kari Lake has lost her appeal to the Arizona Court of Appeals.

    (Still has option of going to Arizona Supreme Court).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/16/politics/kari-lake-election-appeal/index.html
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    edited February 2023

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.

    All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
    Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.

    AKA give the kneecappers a job
    It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
    I recall the upset here a while back, when I related the story of the hedge fund manager who hired private security for his village. Apparently having private security guards just watching the local criminals was a bad thing.

    Can you imagine if he'd got to be some kind of ersatz magistrate?
    He would have been in Victorian/Edwardian times, if he'd been halfway socially acceptable. Edit: tkat last bit not referring to the present-day gent but to the selection criteria pre=1914.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    MikeL said:

    Not sure if already posted (news overnight):

    Kari Lake has lost her appeal to the Arizona Court of Appeals.

    (Still has option of going to Arizona Supreme Court).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/16/politics/kari-lake-election-appeal/index.html

    Has she lost her appeal to Leon though?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints

    This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)



    Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,380

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.

    I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.

    It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable

    This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?

    It isn’t the Nits


    No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
    You make it sound like Scotland is about to get its Bus Pass and spend more time with the grandkids.
    No, but by the time the next chance for a referendum comes around it will be.
    Is there something you know about the end of the world that you're not telling us?

    If so, what are the betting implications?
    Always lay the end of the world (by a specific date) I'd say :wink:
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,216
    edited February 2023

    IanB2 said:

    WillG said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    Labour was always unionist and is now Brexiter in Scotland. Another complication. Mr S has to appeal to the Red Wall in England etc. etc.
    You might have a point if we were still in the EU. But we're not.
    Do you think that Labour would be proposing to leave the EU if we were still in it? Obviously not.
    So to paint Labour as a Brexit party is way off the mark.
    As I have said many times, Brexit is not a policy issue, it is a past event. The related policy issue is joining the EU (whether formally or in practice), and the viability of a politician's position should be judged accordingly.
    Consider my own position:

    For most of my life (but not currently), I have been a Liberal/LibDem member, and thus am inherently resistant to voting tactically.

    Yet I have sufficient awareness of the fact that I relied upon Labour tactical votes to get me elected six times running as a LibDem councillor in London, and that most LibDem MPs rely on the same lending of support. And I desperately want to see this risible May-clown-lunatic-Sunak Tory government receive its just desserts.

    Thus, likely to end up in the Isle of Wight East seat at the next election (less safe for the Tories than IOW West which Seely will defend), I should be open to the possibility of backing the Labour candidate to avoid being landed with another Tory MP.

    My criteria for lending them my vote are:

    - that the local candidate has a track record of co-operating across parties and isn’t a Labour Party tribalist (I have as yet no idea who they might put up);

    - that Labour makes some sort of commitment to recognise the errors of the Tory approach to Brexit and intends to mend the disruption to free trade and travel that Brexit has delivered;

    - that Labour signs up to political reform including abolishing the Lords (so far, a tick) and changing the voting system for the Commons (so far, a fail)

    As yet, I am not seeing it.
    In 2019 Labour were 32% behind the Tories in 2nd place. I can't see them ever winning in the IoW because well they're Labour.
    The IoW has had a Lib Dem MP, in fact two, but they aren't currently in contention. The Greens maybe?
    The LibDems - who despite having held the seat in living memory due to Stephen Ross’s huge standing on the island - are effectively defunct here. For the last GE they did a deal to stand down for the Greens, whose second national target seat this was. I went to help them, but their campaigning ability and organisation was risible; I’d have to drink a bit more before sharing with you how lamentable it was.

    With the boundary changes, the island is due to be split east/west into two seats, and while the west is relatively safe for the current Tory MP - who sadly is far more interested in posturing on foreign affairs rather than actually worrying about the welfare of his constituents - the east could, on current polls, be more to play for. Hence my vote might actually matter, for once.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,088

    I see the name calling of Sir Keir here as "Keith" has subsided a little.

    From Gordon Britttas to Tony Blair.

    Nothing succeeds like success.

    The mystery remains what happened in Summer 2021- the bit between Hartlepool and Batley by elections.
    I'm imagining a superhero style origin story.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    On Topic

    Shocking poll for the SNP

    I would be amazed if they poll as poorly as that at the GE
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,220
    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?

    Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
    Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.

    All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
    Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.

    AKA give the kneecappers a job
    It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
    I recall the upset here a while back, when I related the story of the hedge fund manager who hired private security for his village. Apparently having private security guards just watching the local criminals was a bad thing.

    Can you imagine if he'd got to be some kind of ersatz magistrate?
    He would have been in Victorian/Edwardian times, if he'd been halfway socially acceptable. Edit: tkat last bit not referring to the present-day gent but to the selection criteria pre=1914.
    Indeed.

    And as a local Community Leader, he would have been an obvious candidate for...

    Mind you, was just thinking what would have happened in Malmensbury, when I was there, with the dispute between the locals in the town and some travellers. I can tell you who the local community leader would have been......
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    That poll is good news for the Tories - they might cling on as the Official Opposition.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,771

    Leon said:

    Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints

    This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)



    Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
    We obviously went to different parts of Bangkok in 1989. It sounds like you went to the - ahem - insalubrious bits, which I strenuously avoided, as I was mainly there to look at << checks notes >> reclining buddhas
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560

    On Topic

    Shocking poll for the SNP

    I would be amazed if they poll as poorly as that at the GE

    Obviously Scottish voters still think Corbyn is Labour leader - it's the only possible explanation for Labour's good showing.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    That poll is good news for the Tories - they might cling on as the Official Opposition.

    There’s no danger of that. SNP will refuse it if second largest party.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    MikeL said:

    Not sure if already posted (news overnight):

    Kari Lake has lost her appeal to the Arizona Court of Appeals.

    (Still has option of going to Arizona Supreme Court).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/16/politics/kari-lake-election-appeal/index.html

    Stubborn Childishness wins you primaries, not proper elections.

    Actually that's a hope not a rule - it was damn close after all
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560

    That poll is good news for the Tories - they might cling on as the Official Opposition.

    There’s no danger of that. SNP will refuse it if second largest party.
    Still plenty of time yet for the Tories to screw up their prospects MoonRabbit ;-)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,842
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints

    This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)



    Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
    We obviously went to different parts of Bangkok in 1989. It sounds like you went to the - ahem - insalubrious bits, which I strenuously avoided, as I was mainly there to look at << checks notes >> reclining buddhas
    Definitely the reclining buddhas, and certainly not the hundreds of LBFMs vying for your attention.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    Sensible comments from Macron:

    Emmanuel Macron in Munich has gone on to discuss that in his view the west didn’t fully digest the consequences of the end of the cold war, and that Russia did not fully digest the end of being an empire. Macron said the west made mistakes in the way it expanded the European Union, and that after 1990 Russia had low GDP and declining demographics, and yet was the largest country in the world with huge borders, and a choice between betting its future on joining Europe, or to fall back on the dream of empire, and it had chosen the latter. He went on to say that he did not back regime change in Russia, as he did not feel that changing the leader would change the underlying culture. Macron answered the questions in English.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/17/russia-ukraine-war-live-world-leaders-meet-in-munich-for-security-conference
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Labour is horrendously authoritarian; that has long been my principal concern about, and difference with, them. That the behaviour of your own Tories has got me to the position of contemplating voting for them next time is more a comment on your side than on theirs.

    HYUFD doesn't care. He doesn't care that my Dad, a voter of 50 years is now voting Lib Dem.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    edited February 2023
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000

    Hard to prove actual malice as the required standard IIUC, but its compelling if they were so foolish as to write things so plainly.
    I doubt it.
    The malice is pretty evident.

    ... actual malice — defined as “with knowledge that it was false or with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not.”..
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 2023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JPJ2 said:

    Labour are saying "make Brexit work"-that is an enormous NO NO for the younger age group in Scotland (anybody under 55) and you can be sure the SNP will hammer that message in the General Election.

    It would be amazing if Labour failed to make some gains in Scotland, especially in Glasgow and surrounds, where most of the group of pro-independence but still voting Labour even in 2019 reside. Tory direct switchers to Labour will help them. Tories in Scotland will be lucky to get ZERO.

    My best current thoughts are Robertson as SNP Leader with Forbes (if she is prepared to do it) as his deputy FM. Holyrood election (2026 or earlier if an opportunity presents) switched to from GE for de facto referendum. Sure, there will be a lot of squeeking from those who want independence now, but presented with a ballot paper at any point in the future would such people really vote against independence?

    More under 55s in Scotland back Brexit than oppose homosexual marriage and oppose abortion if Kate Forbes joins the SNP leadership.

    Starmer's would be a softer Brexit than now anyway
    Talking of which:

    From @DeltapollUK via email newsletter. #EURef2 vi" Rejoin 52 (+4); Stay Out 43 (-2). Fwork 10-13.2 (ch since 3-6.2).

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1626175511566118912


    Not enough (yet) for a rejoin referendum. And whilst it's maddening for some of those who think that Britain took a wrong turn in 2016, patience is a better strategy than "Referendum NOW".
    43% Stay Out almost double the current Tory voteshare too.

    So little sign of the Tories abandoning Brexit even if they go to Opposition
    Is that an admittance Brexit arguments are far from done in the Tory party? I would argue Tory acrimony and division over Brexit is just getting started.

    Once in opposition they will largely and acrimoniously split over changes to this current definition of “Brexit means Brexit” of Johnson and Frost - at any point Labour put business friendly tweaks to it, to a commons vote.

    You can’t say no, it’s even there between the lines of this weeks news, to some in the Tory party any involvement of EU law is a deal breaker, on fundamental matter of principle, it would no longer be Brexit.

    Sunak this side of the election, nor his successor as LOTO can three line WIP either those Brexit position can he?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-weighs-role-uk-tory-brexit-hardliners-eu-deal/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938

    HYUFD said:

    New map of Scottish constituencies on today's Yougov shows Labour regaining most of the central belt.

    The SNP are reduced back more to their old heartlands of the Highlands and North East along with some of the South West.

    It would be a party looking more like Forbes than Sturgeon

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416?s=20

    Baxter gives (new boundaries):

    SNP 27 seats (-21)
    SLab 23 seats (+22)
    SCon 5 seats (-1)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    Unionist majority of Scottish MPs for the first time since 2010!
  • Options
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    New map of Scottish constituencies on today's Yougov shows Labour regaining most of the central belt.

    The SNP are reduced back more to their old heartlands of the Highlands and North East along with some of the South West.

    It would be a party looking more like Forbes than Sturgeon

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416?s=20

    Baxter gives (new boundaries):

    SNP 27 seats (-21)
    SLab 23 seats (+22)
    SCon 5 seats (-1)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    Unionist majority of Scottish MPs for the first time since 2010!
    Supporters of proportional voting systems would support that outcome.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    A week is a long time in politics, etc. etc.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,771
    Bitter infighting amongst the Nits on Twitter

    “Where did it all go wrong” “That bitch Nippie” “Alex the Yoon is a double agent” etc

    Heh
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000

    I've read plenty about Trumpworld and I'd have to say that in an absolutely top class field of fruitcakes Sydney Powell just about edges it for me.
    I met one of the denizens of Trumpworld, Corey Lewendowski. He was probably the most horrible person I've ever encountered.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000

    Hard to prove actual malice as the required standard IIUC, but its compelling if they were so foolish as to write things so plainly.
    I doubt it.
    The malice is pretty evident.

    ... actual malice — defined as “with knowledge that it was false or with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not.”..
    I meant it is tough to prove generally. Their writing about it is revealing.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,216
    Leon said:

    Bitter infighting amongst the Nits on Twitter

    “Where did it all go wrong” “That bitch Nippie” “Alex the Yoon is a double agent” etc

    Heh

    The sort of rubbish our in-house conspiracy theorist on here might come out with.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,111
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints

    This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)



    Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
    We obviously went to different parts of Bangkok in 1989. It sounds like you went to the - ahem - insalubrious bits, which I strenuously avoided, as I was mainly there to look at << checks notes >> reclining buddhas
    I was inspired to visit Bangkok by the 1980s hit “One Night in Bangkok” by Murray Head. I was disappointed to find that, contrary to the impression given, there was very little chess being played there.

    Nevertheless, to my mind anyway, the track is the best song ever written about playing any sort of board game in Thailand.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    algarkirk said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416

    My Seat Model:

    LAB: 30 (+29)
    SNP: 21 (-27)
    CON: 3 (-3)
    LDM: 5 (+1)

    Changes w/ GE2019.

    It must be more than luck for SKS to watch both major opponents self explode on your watch without apparently doing anything at all.

    And who will be the first to call 'Peak Starmer'. It must be coming fairly soon.

    No you see Keir is crap when something goes wrong but when Labour goes up, he isn't responsible.

    These people will never accept they have got it wrong.
    You know Sturgeon tied herself to her Trans policy, like someone on a cliff edge strapping themselves to a boulder, and she was never going to admit she was wrong.

    And you know Kyr Starmer’s position on the same issue is EXACTLY THE SAME as Sturgeon and the SNP don’t you? Trans policy between SNP and Labour are proudly out there as absolutely identical.

    So you know exactly the onslaught coming next from media and Tories onto Starmer and Labour don’t you?
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    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    Ancient history that poll. Going to take a bit of time for dust to settle I think, including who the next SNP leader will be. Scottish WVI polling has also been light on the ground of late, so hope we see some more to help with our betting. I'd previously been in the Scot Labour getting 5-10 seats camp in the next GE, but can easily see how that might get over the 20-ish mark now.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,220

    algarkirk said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416

    My Seat Model:

    LAB: 30 (+29)
    SNP: 21 (-27)
    CON: 3 (-3)
    LDM: 5 (+1)

    Changes w/ GE2019.

    It must be more than luck for SKS to watch both major opponents self explode on your watch without apparently doing anything at all.

    And who will be the first to call 'Peak Starmer'. It must be coming fairly soon.

    No you see Keir is crap when something goes wrong but when Labour goes up, he isn't responsible.

    These people will never accept they have got it wrong.
    You know Sturgeon tied herself to her Trans policy, like someone on a cliff edge strapping themselves to a boulder, and she was never going to admit she was wrong.

    And you know Kyr Starmer’s position on the same issue is EXACTLY THE SAME as Sturgeon and the SNP don’t you? Trans policy between SNP and Labour are proudly out there as absolutely identical.

    So you know exactly the onslaught coming next from media and Tories onto Starmer and Labour don’t you?
    Nope. Starer and the Labour party will slipstream past the issue. In actual power they will probably do what the Spanish government did - self id + safeguards.

    Think the amendments to the bill that were rejected.
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    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,252
    Labour are doing well in Scotland, which has a significant potential impact on the Westminster result.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,252

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    Fancy a wager that Labour will be in at least double digit seats?

    I agree with you about so much but you have a massive blind spot when it comes to Scottish Labour.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    SNP practically on the ropes.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,909
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints

    This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)



    Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
    We obviously went to different parts of Bangkok in 1989. It sounds like you went to the - ahem - insalubrious bits, which I strenuously avoided, as I was mainly there to look at << checks notes >> reclining buddhas
    I was inspired to visit Bangkok by the 1980s hit “One Night in Bangkok” by Murray Head. I was disappointed to find that, contrary to the impression given, there was very little chess being played there.

    Nevertheless, to my mind anyway, the track is the best song ever written about playing any sort of board game in Thailand.
    I've just watched the video for it on youtube for the first time since it was in the charts. Boy. It's like... a Duran Duran video crashing into a Keith Floyd mini-break.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Scottish constituency bets were a big winner for me in 2017, some great odds. Only thing that brought me to parity. They've probably learned since then.
  • Options
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
    I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.

    People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
    A look at Starmer's record at the CPS particularly re his prosecutions of journalists, under a very old law, all of which were overturned on appeal, shows that he shares the authoritarian streak. It does not bode well.
  • Options
    If Jezza had resigned after GE17 and Starmer taken over, he'd be in Government now
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,053

    If Jezza had resigned after GE17 and Starmer taken over, he'd be in Government now

    He really wouldn’t with his, then, support of a so-called ‘peoples vote’
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,880

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.

    The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,116

    If Jezza had resigned after GE17 and Starmer taken over, he'd be in Government now

    Nope - thats nonsense. The 2019 election was as much about "getting Brexit done", with the general public, including remainers, wanting the referendum honoured. Starmer was one of the key figures in trying to 'overturn democracy'*.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,053
    Heathener said:

    Labour are doing well in Scotland, which has a significant potential impact on the Westminster result.

    Do you think they’ll ‘shellack’ the SNP ?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    Eabhal said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.

    The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
    Postal ballot closes 27 March, so that sounds about right - for the new leader to get elected and make some policy statements.

    Also, the polling was *before* the resignation, with obvious problems of interpretation.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000

    I've read plenty about Trumpworld and I'd have to say that in an absolutely top class field of fruitcakes Sydney Powell just about edges it for me.
    I met one of the denizens of Trumpworld, Corey Lewendowski. He was probably the most horrible person I've ever encountered.
    Can't see why this would disqualify him from the Trump gig...
    ...On August 1, 2019, Lewandowski announced that he was "very seriously" considering seeking the Republican nomination to oppose incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in the 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire.[2] In January 2020, he ultimately decided not to run, while stating that he "would have won" had he run.[3]

    On the day it was reported in September 2021 that he had made sexual advances toward a major Trump donor, a Trump spokesman said Lewandowski "will no longer be associated with Trump World."..
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,053
    Leon said:

    Bitter infighting amongst the Nits on Twitter

    “Where did it all go wrong” “That bitch Nippie” “Alex the Yoon is a double agent” etc

    Heh


    They are still the main force in Scottish politics. Remains to be seen if this is a blip or part of a decline.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,964
    Eabhal said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.

    The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
    A consideration is that erstwhile SNP voters may choose to temporarily vote Labour, like many others at the next GE, in order to ensure the Tories are kicked out. It may be a higher priority than independence, given that independence isn’t a short term option. Rather than speculation, a Scotland wide poll, asking the pro/anti independence question alongside voting intention, would provide some valuable information. Over to you, polling companies.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,111
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Bitter infighting amongst the Nits on Twitter

    “Where did it all go wrong” “That bitch Nippie” “Alex the Yoon is a double agent” etc

    Heh


    They are still the main force in Scottish politics. Remains to be seen if this is a blip or part of a decline.
    People are getting very excited by a poll that still gives them a commanding lead over their opposition
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,909
    Eabhal said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.

    The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
    Why May?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584

    Eabhal said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.

    The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
    A consideration is that erstwhile SNP voters may choose to temporarily vote Labour, like many others at the next GE, in order to ensure the Tories are kicked out. It may be a higher priority than independence, given that independence isn’t a short term option. Rather than speculation, a Scotland wide poll, asking the pro/anti independence question alongside voting intention, would provide some valuable information. Over to you, polling companies.
    Just wondering if some might vote LD instead rather than Labour. Labour are Brexiter, for one thing. Can't see that making much difference but it would be worth considering that in studenty areas and Tory seats, esp if the farmers and fisherfolk are still pissed off with the Brexit shite pie and shift to Reform or LDs from Tory.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    DougSeal said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Bitter infighting amongst the Nits on Twitter

    “Where did it all go wrong” “That bitch Nippie” “Alex the Yoon is a double agent” etc

    Heh


    They are still the main force in Scottish politics. Remains to be seen if this is a blip or part of a decline.
    People are getting very excited by a poll that still gives them a commanding lead over their opposition
    We'll take what we can get!

    If people didn't overreact to things would it even be PB?
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Dominion libel case against Fox News is likely to succeed.
    Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.

    "'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.

    "Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'

    "Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000

    I've read plenty about Trumpworld and I'd have to say that in an absolutely top class field of fruitcakes Sydney Powell just about edges it for me.
    I met one of the denizens of Trumpworld, Corey Lewendowski. He was probably the most horrible person I've ever encountered.
    Can't see why this would disqualify him from the Trump gig...
    ...On August 1, 2019, Lewandowski announced that he was "very seriously" considering seeking the Republican nomination to oppose incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in the 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire.[2] In January 2020, he ultimately decided not to run, while stating that he "would have won" had he run.[3]

    On the day it was reported in September 2021 that he had made sexual advances toward a major Trump donor, a Trump spokesman said Lewandowski "will no longer be associated with Trump World."..
    I hadn't heard about that last bit - it happened after I met him - but it seems entirely in character. He was like one of the less pleasant characters in an Elmore Leonard novel.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    ohnotnow said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626592648973934592

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 29% (=)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 6% (=)

    Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
    Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.

    I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
    Nope.

    New boundaries:
    SNP 45 seats (-3)
    SLab 7 seats (+6)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLD 2 seats (nc)
    We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.

    The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
    Why May?
    Ballot for election of leader closes 20 March, say a week to count, gives leader a month to make known both self and initial policy statements.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,053
    DougSeal said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Bitter infighting amongst the Nits on Twitter

    “Where did it all go wrong” “That bitch Nippie” “Alex the Yoon is a double agent” etc

    Heh


    They are still the main force in Scottish politics. Remains to be seen if this is a blip or part of a decline.
    People are getting very excited by a poll that still gives them a commanding lead over their opposition
    I’m sure the Tories would be delighted to be polling as badly.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,771
    My Leondamus-o-meter tells me this is genuinely bad for the Nits, and not just one outlying poll. Besides, it factually isn’t one outlying poll. We have the simultaneous decline in the Yes vote, the Ashford polling showing the SNP way out of kilter - ahem - with Scottish voter priorities, and so forth

    The SNP have become cultic, arrogant, incestuous and corrupt. This did not matter so much as long as they had Sturgeon at the helm, and the rock solid Indy vote. Now Sturgeon has gone and the Indy vote is flaking (but not crumbling, as yet)

    If they find another excellent leader they may yet save the situation, but that seems unlikely. The charismatic ones are too young

    I therefore see decline, and it could be quite dramatic. This party has defied electoral gravity for a decade, when that gravity eventually wins out the effect could be startling. The SNP will remain a serious if not dominant force, but the hegemony is over, for now
This discussion has been closed.