Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.
People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly.
The 2010 to 2015 Tory and LD coalition government was more socially liberal than most Labour governments have been
Labour are saying "make Brexit work"-that is an enormous NO NO for the younger age group in Scotland (anybody under 55) and you can be sure the SNP will hammer that message in the General Election.
It would be amazing if Labour failed to make some gains in Scotland, especially in Glasgow and surrounds, where most of the group of pro-independence but still voting Labour even in 2019 reside. Tory direct switchers to Labour will help them. Tories in Scotland will be lucky to get ZERO.
My best current thoughts are Robertson as SNP Leader with Forbes (if she is prepared to do it) as his deputy FM. Holyrood election (2026 or earlier if an opportunity presents) switched to from GE for de facto referendum. Sure, there will be a lot of squeeking from those who want independence now, but presented with a ballot paper at any point in the future would such people really vote against independence?
More under 55s in Scotland back Brexit than oppose homosexual marriage and oppose abortion if Kate Forbes joins the SNP leadership.
Starmer's would be a softer Brexit than now anyway
Talking of which:
From @DeltapollUK via email newsletter. #EURef2 vi" Rejoin 52 (+4); Stay Out 43 (-2). Fwork 10-13.2 (ch since 3-6.2).
Not enough (yet) for a rejoin referendum. And whilst it's maddening for some of those who think that Britain took a wrong turn in 2016, patience is a better strategy than "Referendum NOW".
43% Stay Out almost double the current Tory voteshare too.
So little sign of the Tories abandoning Brexit even if they go to Opposition
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.
People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly
It seems somewhat less common now, but for a while liberal was just being used to mean good, hence some surprise when 'good' people did not take a liberal option.
Beware of false Dawn’s, etc. But would be a game changer indeed. Even a partial move in this direction is catastrophic for Sunak's hope's.
Dawn’s what?
Curse your swiftness!
Or, curse my cunning in re-editing your post back to how it was first submitted, rather than to how it had been edited by the time I clicked on ‘post comment’….
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
The short sightedness on legal reforms in the name of cheap headlines is one of the more depressing aspects of politics as it genuinely seems cross party.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.
People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly.
The 2010 to 2015 Tory and LD coalition government was more socially liberal than most Labour governments have been
Labour is horrendously authoritarian; that has long been my principal concern about, and difference with, them. That the behaviour of your own Tories has got me to the position of contemplating voting for them next time is more a comment on your side than on theirs.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.
People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly
It seems somewhat less common now, but for a while liberal was just being used to mean good, hence some surprise when 'good' people did not take a liberal option.
The term 'liberal' is not a set of policies. It's a procedure for approaching all issues: openness to the arguments of those with whom you disagree, and so a passionate commitment to freedom of thought; and maximum personal freedom and minimum constraints consistent with the principle of not harming others.
As the liberal Economist keeps pointing out these once self evident principles need a new generation of upholders.
So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?
Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be
This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”
Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone
A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
And the moral is what it always is.
Don't make promises you can't keep. It works brilliantly for a bit, but always bites you on the bum in the end.
Yes, Boris, I am looking at you.
I'm not sure that is the takeaway most people would have unfortunately.
The moral seems to be that if you're brazen enough you can defy gravity for a lot longer than people think. Sure the bum gets bit eventually, but grifting leaders will always think they are different. Or at least can enjoy it while it lasts.
Can someone explain the Nicola Bulley missing person story to me please? What have I missed, were all these private detectives and search teams hired by the family or by the media? It sounds like a total mess, watching from afar.
It's a missing person case that ticks all the media and social media boxes, with the additional element that there appears to be no direct evidence at all but some indirect evidence, and the further additional element that there is, tragically, a chance that it will never be resolved, and finally there is an indeterminate number of possibilities, all of which are difficult or impossible to follow up.
I'd add that the police were clearly aware from the start of the circumstances around the home visit of the police to her home a few weeks before - something the public is not privvy too. I suspect this was one of the reasons that they favour the drowning hypothesis so strongly (that and the seeming lack of evidence of anybody else nearby at the time). The police have released this info as I think they are frustrated by the criticism of their stance. I also heard a retired police detective suggesting that mistakes were made at the scene very early - the bench and surrounding areas needed to be treated as potential crime scenes, but were not. Possibly this relates to the prior info. Without being overly insensitive, its not impossible the earlier police involvement was suicide related.
Its struck the public chord because she is a classic everywoman (see also Sarah Everard). How many women see themselves in her? Taken the kids to school, now walking the dog and juggling remote working? Add into that the sheer lack of any progress and its baffling.
My guess is that she did go into the water and potentially floated out to sea (puffy style coat, rather than heavier clothing that would tend to keep a body more localised in the river. But its all rather distasteful and sad for the family and friends, and worse without closure.
Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.
It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)
I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.
Also the poll antedates her resignation.
WTF is that monstrosity?
PREDATES!
Antedates indeed! Pah!
It's in Chambers Dictionary. 1993 edition. And probably my older ones downstairs. Perfectly OK.
Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.
But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.
Predates ->
"I was going to resign today, but the YouGov poll ate my resignation, and I took it as a sign".
Obvious confusion avoided, surely?
That's pre-empt, surely? A predates B requires that both A and B must have happened to be located in a timeline relative to one another. A pre-empts B means that A stopped B from happening when B otherwise would. Or am I missing something?
On Ian's comment, this is what the makes the presence of soft-left non-authoritarians like Ed Miliband within Labour so important. Owen Jones correctly notes in his article today that some of the Blairites around Starmer have been unable to move him, partly because he's one of the people coming up with the most new intellectual ideas, and probably partly because he's also had links with Starmer for a long time ; because he was in fact the one who originally asked him to stand for parliament, I believe.
There was a tendency during the Blair years for some of the Labour Right to share the machine methods of the old hard left, both in terms of their party management skills, and approach to civil liberties issues. Starmer should be alert to this, and I think, despite all the current window-dressing and noises, I think he is, because of his human-rights Lawyer background. John Reid he isn't.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
The short sightedness on legal reforms in the name of cheap headlines is one of the more depressing aspects of politics as it genuinely seems cross party.
The short sightedness on legal reforms in the name of cheap headlines is one of the more depressing aspects of politics as it genuinely seems cross party.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.
People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
Labour have often been authoritarian even when more socialist than New Labour. Attlee was no liberal certainly
It seems somewhat less common now, but for a while liberal was just being used to mean good, hence some surprise when 'good' people did not take a liberal option.
The term 'liberal' is not a set of policies. It's a procedure for approaching all issues: openness to the arguments of those with whom you disagree, and so a passionate commitment to freedom of thought; and maximum personal freedom and minimum constraints consistent with the principle of not harming others.
As the liberal Economist keeps pointing out these once self evident principles need a new generation of upholders.
Ed Davey's Orange Book LDs are probably closest to it
Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.
I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.
It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable
This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?
It isn’t the Nits
No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.
It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)
I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.
Also the poll antedates her resignation.
WTF is that monstrosity?
PREDATES!
Antedates indeed! Pah!
It's in Chambers Dictionary. 1993 edition. And probably my older ones downstairs. Perfectly OK.
Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.
But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.
Predates ->
"I was going to resign today, but the YouGov poll ate my resignation, and I took it as a sign".
Obvious confusion avoided, surely?
That's pre-empt, surely? A predates B requires that both A and B must have happened to be located in a timeline relative to one another. A pre-empts B means that A stopped B from happening when B otherwise would. Or am I missing something?
Maybe it was forced enough to deserve a "whoosh" -
The lion predated the zebra The dog predated my homework The YouGov poll predated Sturgeon's resignation
I'd naturally like 'on' in the first two sentences, but predate can be either transitive or intransitive apparently.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.
All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are hardly going to be coming at it unbiassed.
So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?
Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be
This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”
Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone
A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
Labour was always unionist and is now Brexiter in Scotland. Another complication. Mr S has to appeal to the Red Wall in England etc. etc.
You might have a point if we were still in the EU. But we're not. Do you think that Labour would be proposing to leave the EU if we were still in it? Obviously not. So to paint Labour as a Brexit party is way off the mark.
As I have said many times, Brexit is not a policy issue, it is a past event. The related policy issue is joining the EU (whether formally or in practice), and the viability of a politician's position should be judged accordingly.
Consider my own position:
For most of my life (but not currently), I have been a Liberal/LibDem member, and thus am inherently resistant to voting tactically.
Yet I have sufficient awareness of the fact that I relied upon Labour tactical votes to get me elected six times running as a LibDem councillor in London, and that most LibDem MPs rely on the same lending of support. And I desperately want to see this risible May-clown-lunatic-Sunak Tory government receive its just desserts.
Thus, likely to end up in the Isle of Wight East seat at the next election (less safe for the Tories than IOW West which Seely will defend), I should be open to the possibility of backing the Labour candidate to avoid being landed with another Tory MP.
My criteria for lending them my vote are:
- that the local candidate has a track record of co-operating across parties and isn’t a Labour Party tribalist (I have as yet no idea who they might put up);
- that Labour makes some sort of commitment to recognise the errors of the Tory approach to Brexit and intends to mend the disruption to free trade and travel that Brexit has delivered;
- that Labour signs up to political reform including abolishing the Lords (so far, a tick) and changing the voting system for the Commons (so far, a fail)
As yet, I am not seeing it.
In 2019 Labour were 32% behind the Tories in 2nd place. I can't see them ever winning in the IoW because well they're Labour. The IoW has had a Lib Dem MP, in fact two, but they aren't currently in contention. The Greens maybe?
Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.
It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)
I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.
Also the poll antedates her resignation.
WTF is that monstrosity?
PREDATES!
Antedates indeed! Pah!
It's in Chambers Dictionary. 1993 edition. And probably my older ones downstairs. Perfectly OK.
Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.
But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.
Predates ->
"I was going to resign today, but the YouGov poll ate my resignation, and I took it as a sign".
Obvious confusion avoided, surely?
That's pre-empt, surely? A predates B requires that both A and B must have happened to be located in a timeline relative to one another. A pre-empts B means that A stopped B from happening when B otherwise would. Or am I missing something?
Maybe it was forced enough to deserve a "whoosh" -
The lion predated the zebra The dog predated my homework The YouGov poll predated Sturgeon's resignation
I'd naturally like 'on' in the first two sentences, but predate can be either transitive or intransitive apparently.
Sorry, yes, of course - I was so mentally fixated on the pre/ante prefix choice I didn't remember the alternative reading. Thanks.
'Predation on zebras' is definitely the correct wording for the abstract noun version, so predate on is technically right, but then that invites the simpler wording 'prey on' in non-technical contexts.
Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.
I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.
It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable
This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?
It isn’t the Nits
No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
You make it sound like Scotland is about to get its Bus Pass and spend more time with the grandkids.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.
All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.
Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.
I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.
It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable
This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?
It isn’t the Nits
No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
You make it sound like Scotland is about to get its Bus Pass and spend more time with the grandkids.
No, but by the time the next chance for a referendum comes around it will be.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.
All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.
AKA give the kneecappers a job
It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.
All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.
AKA give the kneecappers a job
It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
The irony is that, in Labour there is an animus against the voluntary parts of the justice system - Magistrates are seen as all Tory Toffs (long been nonsense). There was even call to get rid of Special Constables.
Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.
I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.
It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable
This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?
It isn’t the Nits
No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
You make it sound like Scotland is about to get its Bus Pass and spend more time with the grandkids.
No, but by the time the next chance for a referendum comes around it will be.
Is there something you know about the end of the world that you're not telling us?
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.
All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.
AKA give the kneecappers a job
It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
I recall the upset here a while back, when I related the story of the hedge fund manager who hired private security for his village. Apparently having private security guards just watching the local criminals was a bad thing.
Can you imagine if he'd got to be some kind of ersatz magistrate?
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.
All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.
AKA give the kneecappers a job
It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
I recall the upset here a while back, when I related the story of the hedge fund manager who hired private security for his village. Apparently having private security guards just watching the local criminals was a bad thing.
Can you imagine if he'd got to be some kind of ersatz magistrate?
He would have been in Victorian/Edwardian times, if he'd been halfway socially acceptable. Edit: tkat last bit not referring to the present-day gent but to the selection criteria pre=1914.
Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints
This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)
Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.
I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.
It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable
This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?
It isn’t the Nits
No, I think the prognosis is deadness, from here separation just becomes more difficult. It would be like divorcing at age 60 despite having the chance at age 30. What's the point.
You make it sound like Scotland is about to get its Bus Pass and spend more time with the grandkids.
No, but by the time the next chance for a referendum comes around it will be.
Is there something you know about the end of the world that you're not telling us?
If so, what are the betting implications?
Always lay the end of the world (by a specific date) I'd say
So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?
Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be
This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”
Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone
A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
Labour was always unionist and is now Brexiter in Scotland. Another complication. Mr S has to appeal to the Red Wall in England etc. etc.
You might have a point if we were still in the EU. But we're not. Do you think that Labour would be proposing to leave the EU if we were still in it? Obviously not. So to paint Labour as a Brexit party is way off the mark.
As I have said many times, Brexit is not a policy issue, it is a past event. The related policy issue is joining the EU (whether formally or in practice), and the viability of a politician's position should be judged accordingly.
Consider my own position:
For most of my life (but not currently), I have been a Liberal/LibDem member, and thus am inherently resistant to voting tactically.
Yet I have sufficient awareness of the fact that I relied upon Labour tactical votes to get me elected six times running as a LibDem councillor in London, and that most LibDem MPs rely on the same lending of support. And I desperately want to see this risible May-clown-lunatic-Sunak Tory government receive its just desserts.
Thus, likely to end up in the Isle of Wight East seat at the next election (less safe for the Tories than IOW West which Seely will defend), I should be open to the possibility of backing the Labour candidate to avoid being landed with another Tory MP.
My criteria for lending them my vote are:
- that the local candidate has a track record of co-operating across parties and isn’t a Labour Party tribalist (I have as yet no idea who they might put up);
- that Labour makes some sort of commitment to recognise the errors of the Tory approach to Brexit and intends to mend the disruption to free trade and travel that Brexit has delivered;
- that Labour signs up to political reform including abolishing the Lords (so far, a tick) and changing the voting system for the Commons (so far, a fail)
As yet, I am not seeing it.
In 2019 Labour were 32% behind the Tories in 2nd place. I can't see them ever winning in the IoW because well they're Labour. The IoW has had a Lib Dem MP, in fact two, but they aren't currently in contention. The Greens maybe?
The LibDems - who despite having held the seat in living memory due to Stephen Ross’s huge standing on the island - are effectively defunct here. For the last GE they did a deal to stand down for the Greens, whose second national target seat this was. I went to help them, but their campaigning ability and organisation was risible; I’d have to drink a bit more before sharing with you how lamentable it was.
With the boundary changes, the island is due to be split east/west into two seats, and while the west is relatively safe for the current Tory MP - who sadly is far more interested in posturing on foreign affairs rather than actually worrying about the welfare of his constituents - the east could, on current polls, be more to play for. Hence my vote might actually matter, for once.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Re-inventing Magistrates Courts?
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
Plus look at who they want sitting in judgement..teachers and sports coaches, so called community leaders usually who are self selecting and most dont think represent them at all...MCB for example.
All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are going to be coming at it unbiassed.
Community restorative Justice in Northern Ireland.
AKA give the kneecappers a job
It's a recipe for people to get revenge, cf revolutionary france, witch trials etc. People with no training passing sentence on people for things that aren't actually crimes such as we saw with many asbo's who have prior contact with the accused.....yeah thats going to end well
I recall the upset here a while back, when I related the story of the hedge fund manager who hired private security for his village. Apparently having private security guards just watching the local criminals was a bad thing.
Can you imagine if he'd got to be some kind of ersatz magistrate?
He would have been in Victorian/Edwardian times, if he'd been halfway socially acceptable. Edit: tkat last bit not referring to the present-day gent but to the selection criteria pre=1914.
Indeed.
And as a local Community Leader, he would have been an obvious candidate for...
Mind you, was just thinking what would have happened in Malmensbury, when I was there, with the dispute between the locals in the town and some travellers. I can tell you who the local community leader would have been......
Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints
This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)
Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
We obviously went to different parts of Bangkok in 1989. It sounds like you went to the - ahem - insalubrious bits, which I strenuously avoided, as I was mainly there to look at << checks notes >> reclining buddhas
Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints
This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)
Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
We obviously went to different parts of Bangkok in 1989. It sounds like you went to the - ahem - insalubrious bits, which I strenuously avoided, as I was mainly there to look at << checks notes >> reclining buddhas
Definitely the reclining buddhas, and certainly not the hundreds of LBFMs vying for your attention.
Emmanuel Macron in Munich has gone on to discuss that in his view the west didn’t fully digest the consequences of the end of the cold war, and that Russia did not fully digest the end of being an empire. Macron said the west made mistakes in the way it expanded the European Union, and that after 1990 Russia had low GDP and declining demographics, and yet was the largest country in the world with huge borders, and a choice between betting its future on joining Europe, or to fall back on the dream of empire, and it had chosen the latter. He went on to say that he did not back regime change in Russia, as he did not feel that changing the leader would change the underlying culture. Macron answered the questions in English.
Labour is horrendously authoritarian; that has long been my principal concern about, and difference with, them. That the behaviour of your own Tories has got me to the position of contemplating voting for them next time is more a comment on your side than on theirs.
HYUFD doesn't care. He doesn't care that my Dad, a voter of 50 years is now voting Lib Dem.
Labour are saying "make Brexit work"-that is an enormous NO NO for the younger age group in Scotland (anybody under 55) and you can be sure the SNP will hammer that message in the General Election.
It would be amazing if Labour failed to make some gains in Scotland, especially in Glasgow and surrounds, where most of the group of pro-independence but still voting Labour even in 2019 reside. Tory direct switchers to Labour will help them. Tories in Scotland will be lucky to get ZERO.
My best current thoughts are Robertson as SNP Leader with Forbes (if she is prepared to do it) as his deputy FM. Holyrood election (2026 or earlier if an opportunity presents) switched to from GE for de facto referendum. Sure, there will be a lot of squeeking from those who want independence now, but presented with a ballot paper at any point in the future would such people really vote against independence?
More under 55s in Scotland back Brexit than oppose homosexual marriage and oppose abortion if Kate Forbes joins the SNP leadership.
Starmer's would be a softer Brexit than now anyway
Talking of which:
From @DeltapollUK via email newsletter. #EURef2 vi" Rejoin 52 (+4); Stay Out 43 (-2). Fwork 10-13.2 (ch since 3-6.2).
Not enough (yet) for a rejoin referendum. And whilst it's maddening for some of those who think that Britain took a wrong turn in 2016, patience is a better strategy than "Referendum NOW".
43% Stay Out almost double the current Tory voteshare too.
So little sign of the Tories abandoning Brexit even if they go to Opposition
Is that an admittance Brexit arguments are far from done in the Tory party? I would argue Tory acrimony and division over Brexit is just getting started.
Once in opposition they will largely and acrimoniously split over changes to this current definition of “Brexit means Brexit” of Johnson and Frost - at any point Labour put business friendly tweaks to it, to a commons vote.
You can’t say no, it’s even there between the lines of this weeks news, to some in the Tory party any involvement of EU law is a deal breaker, on fundamental matter of principle, it would no longer be Brexit.
Sunak this side of the election, nor his successor as LOTO can three line WIP either those Brexit position can he?
Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints
This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)
Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
We obviously went to different parts of Bangkok in 1989. It sounds like you went to the - ahem - insalubrious bits, which I strenuously avoided, as I was mainly there to look at << checks notes >> reclining buddhas
I was inspired to visit Bangkok by the 1980s hit “One Night in Bangkok” by Murray Head. I was disappointed to find that, contrary to the impression given, there was very little chess being played there.
Nevertheless, to my mind anyway, the track is the best song ever written about playing any sort of board game in Thailand.
It must be more than luck for SKS to watch both major opponents self explode on your watch without apparently doing anything at all.
And who will be the first to call 'Peak Starmer'. It must be coming fairly soon.
No you see Keir is crap when something goes wrong but when Labour goes up, he isn't responsible.
These people will never accept they have got it wrong.
You know Sturgeon tied herself to her Trans policy, like someone on a cliff edge strapping themselves to a boulder, and she was never going to admit she was wrong.
And you know Kyr Starmer’s position on the same issue is EXACTLY THE SAME as Sturgeon and the SNP don’t you? Trans policy between SNP and Labour are proudly out there as absolutely identical.
So you know exactly the onslaught coming next from media and Tories onto Starmer and Labour don’t you?
Ancient history that poll. Going to take a bit of time for dust to settle I think, including who the next SNP leader will be. Scottish WVI polling has also been light on the ground of late, so hope we see some more to help with our betting. I'd previously been in the Scot Labour getting 5-10 seats camp in the next GE, but can easily see how that might get over the 20-ish mark now.
It must be more than luck for SKS to watch both major opponents self explode on your watch without apparently doing anything at all.
And who will be the first to call 'Peak Starmer'. It must be coming fairly soon.
No you see Keir is crap when something goes wrong but when Labour goes up, he isn't responsible.
These people will never accept they have got it wrong.
You know Sturgeon tied herself to her Trans policy, like someone on a cliff edge strapping themselves to a boulder, and she was never going to admit she was wrong.
And you know Kyr Starmer’s position on the same issue is EXACTLY THE SAME as Sturgeon and the SNP don’t you? Trans policy between SNP and Labour are proudly out there as absolutely identical.
So you know exactly the onslaught coming next from media and Tories onto Starmer and Labour don’t you?
Nope. Starer and the Labour party will slipstream past the issue. In actual power they will probably do what the Spanish government did - self id + safeguards.
Think the amendments to the bill that were rejected.
Turns out Phnom Penh has a groovy bar culture with networks of tiny alleys full of brilliant little gin-pubs and whisky-joints
This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)
Have to admit from that pic, I'm not seeing the comparison with Bangkok 1989. If you had included a few (actually, a lot) ladyboy hookers plus stalls selling knock off designer brands, I would have been more convinced
We obviously went to different parts of Bangkok in 1989. It sounds like you went to the - ahem - insalubrious bits, which I strenuously avoided, as I was mainly there to look at << checks notes >> reclining buddhas
I was inspired to visit Bangkok by the 1980s hit “One Night in Bangkok” by Murray Head. I was disappointed to find that, contrary to the impression given, there was very little chess being played there.
Nevertheless, to my mind anyway, the track is the best song ever written about playing any sort of board game in Thailand.
I've just watched the video for it on youtube for the first time since it was in the charts. Boy. It's like... a Duran Duran video crashing into a Keith Floyd mini-break.
Scottish constituency bets were a big winner for me in 2017, some great odds. Only thing that brought me to parity. They've probably learned since then.
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.
People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
A look at Starmer's record at the CPS particularly re his prosecutions of journalists, under a very old law, all of which were overturned on appeal, shows that he shares the authoritarian streak. It does not bode well.
I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
Nope.
New boundaries: SNP 45 seats (-3) SLab 7 seats (+6) SCon 3 seats (-3) SLD 2 seats (nc)
We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.
The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
If Jezza had resigned after GE17 and Starmer taken over, he'd be in Government now
Nope - thats nonsense. The 2019 election was as much about "getting Brexit done", with the general public, including remainers, wanting the referendum honoured. Starmer was one of the key figures in trying to 'overturn democracy'*.
I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
Nope.
New boundaries: SNP 45 seats (-3) SLab 7 seats (+6) SCon 3 seats (-3) SLD 2 seats (nc)
We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.
The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
Postal ballot closes 27 March, so that sounds about right - for the new leader to get elected and make some policy statements.
Also, the polling was *before* the resignation, with obvious problems of interpretation.
I've read plenty about Trumpworld and I'd have to say that in an absolutely top class field of fruitcakes Sydney Powell just about edges it for me.
I met one of the denizens of Trumpworld, Corey Lewendowski. He was probably the most horrible person I've ever encountered.
Can't see why this would disqualify him from the Trump gig... ...On August 1, 2019, Lewandowski announced that he was "very seriously" considering seeking the Republican nomination to oppose incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in the 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire.[2] In January 2020, he ultimately decided not to run, while stating that he "would have won" had he run.[3]
On the day it was reported in September 2021 that he had made sexual advances toward a major Trump donor, a Trump spokesman said Lewandowski "will no longer be associated with Trump World."..
I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
Nope.
New boundaries: SNP 45 seats (-3) SLab 7 seats (+6) SCon 3 seats (-3) SLD 2 seats (nc)
We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.
The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
A consideration is that erstwhile SNP voters may choose to temporarily vote Labour, like many others at the next GE, in order to ensure the Tories are kicked out. It may be a higher priority than independence, given that independence isn’t a short term option. Rather than speculation, a Scotland wide poll, asking the pro/anti independence question alongside voting intention, would provide some valuable information. Over to you, polling companies.
I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
Nope.
New boundaries: SNP 45 seats (-3) SLab 7 seats (+6) SCon 3 seats (-3) SLD 2 seats (nc)
We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.
The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
Nope.
New boundaries: SNP 45 seats (-3) SLab 7 seats (+6) SCon 3 seats (-3) SLD 2 seats (nc)
We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.
The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
A consideration is that erstwhile SNP voters may choose to temporarily vote Labour, like many others at the next GE, in order to ensure the Tories are kicked out. It may be a higher priority than independence, given that independence isn’t a short term option. Rather than speculation, a Scotland wide poll, asking the pro/anti independence question alongside voting intention, would provide some valuable information. Over to you, polling companies.
Just wondering if some might vote LD instead rather than Labour. Labour are Brexiter, for one thing. Can't see that making much difference but it would be worth considering that in studenty areas and Tory seats, esp if the farmers and fisherfolk are still pissed off with the Brexit shite pie and shift to Reform or LDs from Tory.
I've read plenty about Trumpworld and I'd have to say that in an absolutely top class field of fruitcakes Sydney Powell just about edges it for me.
I met one of the denizens of Trumpworld, Corey Lewendowski. He was probably the most horrible person I've ever encountered.
Can't see why this would disqualify him from the Trump gig... ...On August 1, 2019, Lewandowski announced that he was "very seriously" considering seeking the Republican nomination to oppose incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in the 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire.[2] In January 2020, he ultimately decided not to run, while stating that he "would have won" had he run.[3]
On the day it was reported in September 2021 that he had made sexual advances toward a major Trump donor, a Trump spokesman said Lewandowski "will no longer be associated with Trump World."..
I hadn't heard about that last bit - it happened after I met him - but it seems entirely in character. He was like one of the less pleasant characters in an Elmore Leonard novel.
I would guess that gives something like SNP 37, Labour 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 5.
Nope.
New boundaries: SNP 45 seats (-3) SLab 7 seats (+6) SCon 3 seats (-3) SLD 2 seats (nc)
We won't know if there is a Sturgeon resignation blip or a real decline in SNP support until May I think.
The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
Why May?
Ballot for election of leader closes 20 March, say a week to count, gives leader a month to make known both self and initial policy statements.
My Leondamus-o-meter tells me this is genuinely bad for the Nits, and not just one outlying poll. Besides, it factually isn’t one outlying poll. We have the simultaneous decline in the Yes vote, the Ashford polling showing the SNP way out of kilter - ahem - with Scottish voter priorities, and so forth
The SNP have become cultic, arrogant, incestuous and corrupt. This did not matter so much as long as they had Sturgeon at the helm, and the rock solid Indy vote. Now Sturgeon has gone and the Indy vote is flaking (but not crumbling, as yet)
If they find another excellent leader they may yet save the situation, but that seems unlikely. The charismatic ones are too young
I therefore see decline, and it could be quite dramatic. This party has defied electoral gravity for a decade, when that gravity eventually wins out the effect could be startling. The SNP will remain a serious if not dominant force, but the hegemony is over, for now
Comments
The 2010 to 2015 Tory and LD coalition government was more socially liberal than most Labour governments have been
This is Bangkok in about 1989. The optimism is effervescent (and the Pho is whoah)
So little sign of the Tories abandoning Brexit even if they go to Opposition
Republican losers look to run again in ’24 — and the party’s at odds how to stop them
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/17/midterm-losers-gop-primaries-00083137
SNP 26,
Labour 22,
Conservative 6,
Lib Dem 5.
But quite a few seats would really be too close to call.
"I was going to resign today, but the YouGov poll ate my resignation, and I took it as a sign".
Obvious confusion avoided, surely?
As the liberal Economist keeps pointing out these once self evident principles need a new generation of upholders.
The moral seems to be that if you're brazen enough you can defy gravity for a lot longer than people think. Sure the bum gets bit eventually, but grifting leaders will always think they are different. Or at least can enjoy it while it lasts.
I also heard a retired police detective suggesting that mistakes were made at the scene very early - the bench and surrounding areas needed to be treated as potential crime scenes, but were not. Possibly this relates to the prior info. Without being overly insensitive, its not impossible the earlier police involvement was suicide related.
Its struck the public chord because she is a classic everywoman (see also Sarah Everard). How many women see themselves in her? Taken the kids to school, now walking the dog and juggling remote working? Add into that the sheer lack of any progress and its baffling.
My guess is that she did go into the water and potentially floated out to sea (puffy style coat, rather than heavier clothing that would tend to keep a body more localised in the river. But its all rather distasteful and sad for the family and friends, and worse without closure.
There was a tendency during the Blair years for some of the Labour Right to share the machine methods of the old hard left, both in terms of their party management skills, and approach to civil liberties issues. Starmer should be alert to this, and I think, despite all the current window-dressing and noises, I think he is, because of his human-rights Lawyer background. John Reid he isn't.
Knowingly promoting lies is not protected by the First Amendmrnt.
"'Sidney Powell is lying by the way. I caught her. It’s insane,' Mr. Carlson wrote to Ms. Ingraham on Nov. 18, 2020.
"Ms. Ingraham responded: 'Sidney is a complete nut. No one will work with her. Ditto with Rudy.'
"Mr. Carlson continued, 'Our viewers are good people and they believe it,' he added, making clear that he did not."
https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1626361524825600000
The lion predated the zebra
The dog predated my homework
The YouGov poll predated Sturgeon's resignation
I'd naturally like 'on' in the first two sentences, but predate can be either transitive or intransitive apparently.
All of whom will likely have past history with the majority of the defendants are hardly going to be coming at it unbiassed.
The SNP are reduced back more to their old heartlands of the Highlands and North East along with some of the South West.
It would be a party looking more like Forbes than Sturgeon
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416?s=20
The IoW has had a Lib Dem MP, in fact two, but they aren't currently in contention. The Greens maybe?
'Predation on zebras' is definitely the correct wording for the abstract noun version, so predate on is technically right, but then that invites the simpler wording 'prey on' in non-technical contexts.
AKA give the kneecappers a job
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/17/david-smith-spy-sentence-british-embassy-russia/
SNP 27 seats (-21)
SLab 23 seats (+22)
SCon 5 seats (-1)
SLD 2 seats (nc)
If so, what are the betting implications?
Can you imagine if he'd got to be some kind of ersatz magistrate?
Kari Lake has lost her appeal to the Arizona Court of Appeals.
(Still has option of going to Arizona Supreme Court).
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/16/politics/kari-lake-election-appeal/index.html
Although he hated it there, didn't he?
With the boundary changes, the island is due to be split east/west into two seats, and while the west is relatively safe for the current Tory MP - who sadly is far more interested in posturing on foreign affairs rather than actually worrying about the welfare of his constituents - the east could, on current polls, be more to play for. Hence my vote might actually matter, for once.
Shocking poll for the SNP
I would be amazed if they poll as poorly as that at the GE
And as a local Community Leader, he would have been an obvious candidate for...
Mind you, was just thinking what would have happened in Malmensbury, when I was there, with the dispute between the locals in the town and some travellers. I can tell you who the local community leader would have been......
Actually that's a hope not a rule - it was damn close after all
Emmanuel Macron in Munich has gone on to discuss that in his view the west didn’t fully digest the consequences of the end of the cold war, and that Russia did not fully digest the end of being an empire. Macron said the west made mistakes in the way it expanded the European Union, and that after 1990 Russia had low GDP and declining demographics, and yet was the largest country in the world with huge borders, and a choice between betting its future on joining Europe, or to fall back on the dream of empire, and it had chosen the latter. He went on to say that he did not back regime change in Russia, as he did not feel that changing the leader would change the underlying culture. Macron answered the questions in English.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/17/russia-ukraine-war-live-world-leaders-meet-in-munich-for-security-conference
The malice is pretty evident.
... actual malice — defined as “with knowledge that it was false or with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not.”..
Once in opposition they will largely and acrimoniously split over changes to this current definition of “Brexit means Brexit” of Johnson and Frost - at any point Labour put business friendly tweaks to it, to a commons vote.
You can’t say no, it’s even there between the lines of this weeks news, to some in the Tory party any involvement of EU law is a deal breaker, on fundamental matter of principle, it would no longer be Brexit.
Sunak this side of the election, nor his successor as LOTO can three line WIP either those Brexit position can he?
https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-weighs-role-uk-tory-brexit-hardliners-eu-deal/
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP: 42% (-1)
LAB: 29% (=)
CON: 18% (=)
LDM: 6% (=)
Via @Survation, 1-7 Feb (!)
Changes w/ 10-12 Jan.
“Where did it all go wrong” “That bitch Nippie” “Alex the Yoon is a double agent” etc
Heh
Nevertheless, to my mind anyway, the track is the best song ever written about playing any sort of board game in Thailand.
And you know Kyr Starmer’s position on the same issue is EXACTLY THE SAME as Sturgeon and the SNP don’t you? Trans policy between SNP and Labour are proudly out there as absolutely identical.
So you know exactly the onslaught coming next from media and Tories onto Starmer and Labour don’t you?
Think the amendments to the bill that were rejected.
New boundaries:
SNP 45 seats (-3)
SLab 7 seats (+6)
SCon 3 seats (-3)
SLD 2 seats (nc)
I agree with you about so much but you have a massive blind spot when it comes to Scottish Labour.
The SNP need to hold their nerve and accept the next few polls are going to be pretty rough. If they panic, they will end up with permanent damage - and that's dangerous given there is a definite waterfall effect with SNP -> Labour marginals.
Also, the polling was *before* the resignation, with obvious problems of interpretation.
...On August 1, 2019, Lewandowski announced that he was "very seriously" considering seeking the Republican nomination to oppose incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in the 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire.[2] In January 2020, he ultimately decided not to run, while stating that he "would have won" had he run.[3]
On the day it was reported in September 2021 that he had made sexual advances toward a major Trump donor, a Trump spokesman said Lewandowski "will no longer be associated with Trump World."..
They are still the main force in Scottish politics. Remains to be seen if this is a blip or part of a decline.
If people didn't overreact to things would it even be PB?
The SNP have become cultic, arrogant, incestuous and corrupt. This did not matter so much as long as they had Sturgeon at the helm, and the rock solid Indy vote. Now Sturgeon has gone and the Indy vote is flaking (but not crumbling, as yet)
If they find another excellent leader they may yet save the situation, but that seems unlikely. The charismatic ones are too young
I therefore see decline, and it could be quite dramatic. This party has defied electoral gravity for a decade, when that gravity eventually wins out the effect could be startling. The SNP will remain a serious if not dominant force, but the hegemony is over, for now