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Huge blow for the SNP in new Scottish YouGov poll – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2023 in General
Huge blow for the SNP in new Scottish YouGov poll – politicalbetting.com

BREAKING: New Scotland poll from @YouGov / @ScotVoting puts Labour just two points behind SNP in General Election voting intention. SNP down 16 points on 2019, Labour up 8 points https://t.co/nN6lPtS9cF

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1626554080544886784

    We have passed peak SNP for the foreseeable/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,226
    Terrible poll for the SNP.

    A 12% swing to Scottish Labour which would see 23 SNP seats go Labour

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
  • SKS is a lucky general.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,226
    edited February 2023
    The poll also gives a 1.5% swing from SNP to Scottish Conservatives, so the Tories would hold all their Scottish seats and regain Gordon from the Scottish Nationalists
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,558
    Header: "fair bit of its previous Scottish support was down to its now-outgoing leader"!

    Other interpretations are available for the fall in SNP support (if poll is accurate).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,558

    SKS is a lucky general.

    Indeed, benefiting from the fall out of that dodgy legislation which Scot Lab itself supported.
  • So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,770

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,732
    edited February 2023
    What are the full figures?

    Edit: If the Conservatives are on 12%, I'm guessing these numbers are excluding Don't Knows/Won't Says.
  • LOL
  • I support Sturgeon’s plan to use the next GE as a de facto referendum.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,770

    I support Sturgeon’s plan to use the next GE as a de facto referendum.

    I second this proposal. Bring it on
  • Figures in the article seem to be mis-reported though, comparing a poll with DK to an election without... Excluding DKs would have:

    SNP: 38% (-7% since 2019)
    Labour: 35% (+16%)
    Conservative: 16% (-9%)
    Lib Dem: 5% (-5%)
    Green: 3% (+2%)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,038
    There are two separate but linked questions re SNP, and they are often confused.

    What is the chance of independence
    and
    Can the SNP forge a future with significance and power.

    For quite a long time, as I am sure NS knew well, the answer to the first question is: Practically Zero. She resigned at the moment her excellent delay, blame and avoid strategy ran out of road.

    Only once you accept the first answer can the SNP decide its real future. If it doesn't, it hasn't got one.

    It only has one potentially charismatic leader, Kate Forbes. She won't stand and never will. I don't think she will be in front line politics in 10 years time anyway. Sadly. Wrong party.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288
    Greens are doing well by comparison :smiley:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,372
    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    Not only that, but the SNP are in government, and now have to deal with health, education, policing, transport etc - all things that supporters have ignored getting slowly sh!t because of the spectre of independence. Until now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288

    SKS is a lucky general.

    I hope he will be a lucky PM.

    The country will need it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,362
    algarkirk said:

    There are two separate but linked questions re SNP, and they are often confused.

    What is the chance of independence
    and
    Can the SNP forge a future with significance and power.

    For quite a long time, as I am sure NS knew well, the answer to the first question is: Practically Zero. She resigned at the moment her excellent delay, blame and avoid strategy ran out of road.

    Only once you accept the first answer can the SNP decide its real future. If it doesn't, it hasn't got one.

    It only has one potentially charismatic leader, Kate Forbes. She won't stand and never will. I don't think she will be in front line politics in 10 years time anyway. Sadly. Wrong party.

    she could always join the DUP
  • Keir Starmer will never be responsible for this because PB Tories are utterly incapable of accepting he is a good leader and has brought Labour back to win a majority in one election cycle.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,721
    edited February 2023
    Let's await the full data tables, seems just a tweet with a snippet and a Sun article currently.

    The polling dates from before Sturgeon's resignation, so there is some volatility to play out before a new first minister completes their honeymoon. But, yes, the central expectation ought to be that Labour's polling improvement in Scotland has advanced a little more by the time the dust settles.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288
    algarkirk said:

    There are two separate but linked questions re SNP, and they are often confused.

    What is the chance of independence
    and
    Can the SNP forge a future with significance and power.

    For quite a long time, as I am sure NS knew well, the answer to the first question is: Practically Zero. She resigned at the moment her excellent delay, blame and avoid strategy ran out of road.

    Only once you accept the first answer can the SNP decide its real future. If it doesn't, it hasn't got one.

    It only has one potentially charismatic leader, Kate Forbes. She won't stand and never will. I don't think she will be in front line politics in 10 years time anyway. Sadly. Wrong party.

    The SNP want to rejoin the EU as an indy Scotland. They will not be forging a future of significance and power.
  • I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    But not crucially, the Tories.

    This means as the main pro-Union party, Labour have built in support they have not had since 2010.

    This makes the odds of a Labour majority much higher.
  • algarkirk said:

    There are two separate but linked questions re SNP, and they are often confused.

    What is the chance of independence
    and
    Can the SNP forge a future with significance and power.

    For quite a long time, as I am sure NS knew well, the answer to the first question is: Practically Zero. She resigned at the moment her excellent delay, blame and avoid strategy ran out of road.

    Only once you accept the first answer can the SNP decide its real future. If it doesn't, it hasn't got one.

    It only has one potentially charismatic leader, Kate Forbes. She won't stand and never will. I don't think she will be in front line politics in 10 years time anyway. Sadly. Wrong party.

    If you want to hold off Labour in the central belt, then picking a right of centre leader economically and socially is not a good idea.
    This isn't a good poll for Kate Forbes. It very much suggests the SNP need another left wing leader.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,369
    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,372
    Can someone explain the Nicola Bulley missing person story to me please? What have I missed, were all these private detectives and search teams hired by the family or by the media? It sounds like a total mess, watching from afar.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    Keir Starmer will never be responsible for this because PB Tories are utterly incapable of accepting he is a good leader and has brought Labour back to win a majority in one election cycle.

    Most of the people rubbishing Starmer on here seem to be from the Starmer Is A Tory group.
  • https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1626559766167187456

    Well it looks like the idea that Scottish Labour can only win votes from the Tories rather than the SNP might be coming to an end.

    Just 1 poll, but YouGov has 17% of 2019 SNP voters switching to SLab, and 18% of Scottish Tories.

    In practice that's 2x as many switchers from SNP.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    algarkirk said:

    There are two separate but linked questions re SNP, and they are often confused.

    What is the chance of independence
    and
    Can the SNP forge a future with significance and power.

    For quite a long time, as I am sure NS knew well, the answer to the first question is: Practically Zero. She resigned at the moment her excellent delay, blame and avoid strategy ran out of road.

    Only once you accept the first answer can the SNP decide its real future. If it doesn't, it hasn't got one.

    It only has one potentially charismatic leader, Kate Forbes. She won't stand and never will. I don't think she will be in front line politics in 10 years time anyway. Sadly. Wrong party.

    she could always join the DUP
    I can’t see how Forbes could be leader - unless the SNP decides not to be a progressive party.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,360
    I’ve no doubt it will swing back to a degree if the SNP find a good leader but I doubt we’ll see the excellent polling of the past .

    Sturgeon was very much the face of independence, passion , charisma in bucket loads . You’d go on that journey to independence because of her .
  • https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1626560089040556032

    Westminster voting intention (Scotland):

    SNP: 29%
    LAB: 27%
    CON: 12%
    LDM: 4%
    GRN: 2%
    Don't Know: 14%
    Would not vote: 7%

    Via @YouGov, On 10th-15th February.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,578

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    Labour was always unionist and is now Brexiter in Scotland. Another complication. Mr S has to appeal to the Red Wall in England etc. etc.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,721
    edited February 2023
    Excluding DKs as per usual practice from the headline numbers (+/-1 as don't have the full data for rounding):

    SNP 38
    Lab 35
    Con 16
    LD 5
    Others 5

    Think the key here is where the DKs come from. Changing circumstance meaning DKs more likely to be temporary here than for a UK wide poll.
  • https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626560542625202176

    Excluding the don't knows manually (so could be rounding errors here of ±1%)...

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 38% (-4)
    LAB: 36% (+7)
    CON: 16% (+1)
    LDM: 5% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (=)

    Via @YouGov, 10-15 Feb.
    Changes w/ 23-26 Jan.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,362

    Keir Starmer will never be responsible for this because PB Tories are utterly incapable of accepting he is a good leader and has brought Labour back to win a majority in one election cycle.

    Well it's a view.

    More likely the Tories have consistently fked things up and he gets his chance of power as they have burnt their own house down. Being last man standing doesnt mean he has any gift for outstanding governance, he's as dull as dishwater and has no ideas on what to do if in power. At least Jezza had an agenda.
  • Scottish Westminster voting intention (pre-resignation):

    SNP: 38% (-7% since 2019)
    Labour: 35% (+17%)
    Conservative: 16% (-9%)
    Lib Dem: 5% (-4%)
    Green: 3% (+2%)

    YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor, 10th-15th February

    https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1626559514345410560
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,467
    edited February 2023
    If Starmer puts a forward genuine devo-max-type plan in his first term, and entertains the possibility of a single-market referendum in his second, hopes for the snp will have to be on the back burner for a few years, I think.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,578
    edited February 2023

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Also the poll antedates her resignation.
  • Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    I think their bigger priority will be hectoring Starmer to take us back into the EU.
  • Sandpit said:

    Can someone explain the Nicola Bulley missing person story to me please? What have I missed, were all these private detectives and search teams hired by the family or by the media? It sounds like a total mess, watching from afar.

    It's a total mess, I think thats all anyone can take. The media have been the media on it, and the police haven't helped themselves at all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,770

    Figures in the article seem to be mis-reported though, comparing a poll with DK to an election without... Excluding DKs would have:

    SNP: 38% (-7% since 2019)
    Labour: 35% (+16%)
    Conservative: 16% (-9%)
    Lib Dem: 5% (-5%)
    Green: 3% (+2%)


    As @StuartDickson is atypically silent, I will do his normal task of adding it up

    Pro-Indy parties: 41%
    Pro-Union parties: 56%
  • Who ever thought that the person to resurrect SLAB would be Rishi Sunak?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    Carnyx said:

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Also the poll antedates her resignation.
    But not the actions.

    She had a chance to be flexible. Instead she nailed her trousers to the masthead going with the “THERE IS NO PROBLEM” option

    Then immediately afterwards had to climb down.

    The question is whether these events were the cause, or just the catalyst. I believe, that in a number of cases, a sudden drop in the polls is the sum of issues bubbling away, with a particular straw triggering it.
  • Who ever thought that the person to resurrect SLAB would be Rishi Sunak?

    It was Boris Johnson, as I said so at the time when people were here saying he'd be PM until 2030.

    Keir getting rid of the previous Scotts Labour leader was a masterstroke.
  • Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    And the moral is what it always is.

    Don't make promises you can't keep. It works brilliantly for a bit, but always bites you on the bum in the end.

    Yes, Boris, I am looking at you.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,467
    edited February 2023

    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit.

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    That's is a very interesting irony that you've identified there, that I first noticed around the time of the Referendum in 2016, and that I think may actually end up helping Unionists ; it's much harder to hate "London" and cities like it like Oxford, when these are some of the only places in England supporting your greater independence, because, often enough they actually have more clturally in common with you than Middle England.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    Sandpit said:

    Can someone explain the Nicola Bulley missing person story to me please? What have I missed, were all these private detectives and search teams hired by the family or by the media? It sounds like a total mess, watching from afar.

    It's a total mess, I think thats all anyone can take. The media have been the media on it, and the police haven't helped themselves at all.
    SNAFU
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,373
    Portugal ends Golden Visas, curtails Airbnb rentals to address housing crisis
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=345633
    Portugal announced on Thursday a hefty package of measures to tackle a housing crisis, including the end of its controversial "Golden Visa" scheme and a ban on new licenses for Airbnbs and other short-term holiday rentals.

    Rents and house prices have skyrocketed in Portugal, which is among the poorest countries in Western Europe. Last year, more than 50 percent of workers earned less than 1,000 euros per month while in Lisbon alone, rents jumped 37 percent in 2022.

    Low salaries, a red-hot property market, policies encouraging wealthy foreigners to invest and a tourism-dependent economy have for years made it hard for locals to rent or buy, housing groups have said. Portugal's 8.3 percent inflation rate has exacerbated the problem...
  • https://www.scotsman.com/whats-on/arts-and-entertainment/nicola-sturgeon-admits-she-is-deeply-worried-social-media-abuse-will-put-women-off-entering-politics-4029051

    A valid concern. But a bit rich coming from a woman who attacked other women who disagreed with her in pretty unpleasant terms and who refused to condemn threats of rape made against her colleague, Joanna Cherry, one of which has resulted in a criminal conviction. Another such threat is coming to court soon.

    A self-proclaimed "feminist to her fingertips" would have said something in solidarity with a fellow woman politician in the same party, surely?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,598
    Very off-topic, but it sounds like the aftermath of the storm that hit New Zealand is really pretty devastating.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64674195

    "
    New Zealand's prime minister says he expects there to be more deaths from a violent storm which killed eight people and cut off hundreds of communities.

    More than 4,500 people have yet to be contacted after Cyclone Gabrielle hit on Monday, causing significant flooding and landslides across the North Island.

    Many cities and towns are also without power or clean drinking water.

    A national state of emergency has been declared, only the third in New Zealand's history.

    "This is undoubtedly the biggest natural disaster that we've seen probably this century," Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said.

    "
  • https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416

    My Seat Model:

    LAB: 30 (+29)
    SNP: 21 (-27)
    CON: 3 (-3)
    LDM: 5 (+1)

    Changes w/ GE2019.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,038
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    Labour was always unionist and is now Brexiter in Scotland. Another complication. Mr S has to appeal to the Red Wall in England etc. etc.
    The broad answer is that however triangulated and specialised particular groups are in their views each individual can only, in a FPTP election, vote for one person and party at once. SKS type leaders accept that, and do their best to avoid policies that are intolerable to large groups of potential supporters.

    What you find intolerable is more important than what you support.

    Brexit has not helped. Large numbers of both factions find intolerableness in every available option from the main parties. This is a major problem in UK politics with no immediate solution.

  • 5/ This week, Keir said his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn will not stand for Labour at the next election. We asked how this changed people’s views of Labour:

    🙂 25% view them more favourably
    😐 44% view them the same as before
    🙁 12% view them less favourably

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1626477767922532352?s=20
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,171
    Pro_Rata said:

    Excluding DKs as per usual practice from the headline numbers (+/-1 as don't have the full data for rounding):

    SNP 38
    Lab 35
    Con 16
    LD 5
    Others 5

    Think the key here is where the DKs come from. Changing circumstance meaning DKs more likely to be temporary here than for a UK wide poll.

    Ex-Con and LD have more DKs, Only 9% of former SNP voters are now DK, while 17% of them have gone Labour.

    https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1626559766167187456
  • https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,598
    All settying up nicely for Sir Stormer.
  • Pulpstar said:

    All settying up nicely for Sir Stormer.

    I outlined the scenario in which Keir Starmer becomes PM some time ago, I did not believe it was remotely possible at the time. But things are aligning very well.

    We chose the right guy, boring is how you win the next election.
  • Mike,

    1. Why are you excluding DK/WNV? Not the standard way of reporting poll results. Why the special treatment?

    2. “ it is apparent that a fair bit of its previous Scottish support was down to its now-outgoing leader.” Huh? The fieldwork is pre-resignation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,372

    5/ This week, Keir said his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn will not stand for Labour at the next election. We asked how this changed people’s views of Labour:

    🙂 25% view them more favourably
    😐 44% view them the same as before
    🙁 12% view them less favourably

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1626477767922532352?s=20

    How may of that 25% are Tories though? Blair won big in 1997, by persuading floating voters that he wasn’t a threat, and that they could either vote for him or stay at home. Starmer’s action on Corbyn is likely to motivate 2019 Tories to stay at home in 2024.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,345
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    Labour was always unionist and is now Brexiter in Scotland. Another complication. Mr S has to appeal to the Red Wall in England etc. etc.
    You might have a point if we were still in the EU. But we're not.
    Do you think that Labour would be proposing to leave the EU if we were still in it? Obviously not.
    So to paint Labour as a Brexit party is way off the mark.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,467
    edited February 2023
    I see the name calling of Sir Keir here as "Keith" has subsided a little.

    From Gordon Britttas to Tony Blair.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,345

    algarkirk said:

    There are two separate but linked questions re SNP, and they are often confused.

    What is the chance of independence
    and
    Can the SNP forge a future with significance and power.

    For quite a long time, as I am sure NS knew well, the answer to the first question is: Practically Zero. She resigned at the moment her excellent delay, blame and avoid strategy ran out of road.

    Only once you accept the first answer can the SNP decide its real future. If it doesn't, it hasn't got one.

    It only has one potentially charismatic leader, Kate Forbes. She won't stand and never will. I don't think she will be in front line politics in 10 years time anyway. Sadly. Wrong party.

    If you want to hold off Labour in the central belt, then picking a right of centre leader economically and socially is not a good idea.
    This isn't a good poll for Kate Forbes. It very much suggests the SNP need another left wing leader.
    I think that's right. And I think as a result the next SNP leader will be Angus Robertson. Any sign of the SNP moving rightwards would benefit Labour.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,576

    Keir Starmer will never be responsible for this because PB Tories are utterly incapable of accepting he is a good leader and has brought Labour back to win a majority in one election cycle.

    Hubris. It's likely, but not certain at this stage.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,038

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416

    My Seat Model:

    LAB: 30 (+29)
    SNP: 21 (-27)
    CON: 3 (-3)
    LDM: 5 (+1)

    Changes w/ GE2019.

    It must be more than luck for SKS to watch both major opponents self explode on your watch without apparently doing anything at all.

    And who will be the first to call 'Peak Starmer'. It must be coming fairly soon.

  • I see the name calling of Sir Keir here as "Keith" has subsided a little.

    From Gordon Britttas to Tony Blair.

    Nothing succeeds like success.

    The mystery remains what happened in Summer 2021- the bit between Hartlepool and Batley by elections.
  • I see the name calling of Sir Keir here as "Keith" has subsided a little.

    From Gordon Britttas to Tony Blair.

    I always thought he was good, I stand by the fact I voted for him, confident he was the only option to lead Labour to victory.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,886
    Andrew Tate's special brand of authoritarian misogyny turns out to have big appeal to young Muslim men around the world.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/world/andrew-tate-muslim-men-manosphere-intl-cmd/index.html
  • algarkirk said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1626562686493372416

    My Seat Model:

    LAB: 30 (+29)
    SNP: 21 (-27)
    CON: 3 (-3)
    LDM: 5 (+1)

    Changes w/ GE2019.

    It must be more than luck for SKS to watch both major opponents self explode on your watch without apparently doing anything at all.

    And who will be the first to call 'Peak Starmer'. It must be coming fairly soon.

    No you see Keir is crap when something goes wrong but when Labour goes up, he isn't responsible.

    These people will never accept they have got it wrong.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,721

    Pro_Rata said:

    Excluding DKs as per usual practice from the headline numbers (+/-1 as don't have the full data for rounding):

    SNP 38
    Lab 35
    Con 16
    LD 5
    Others 5

    Think the key here is where the DKs come from. Changing circumstance meaning DKs more likely to be temporary here than for a UK wide poll.

    Ex-Con and LD have more DKs, Only 9% of former SNP voters are now DK, while 17% of them have gone Labour.

    https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1626559766167187456
    Or, to split out the DKs by prior affiliation:

    37% of DKs are ex-Con
    35% ex-SNP
    15% ex-LD
    13% ex-Lab
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,886

    Pulpstar said:

    All settying up nicely for Sir Stormer.

    I outlined the scenario in which Keir Starmer becomes PM some time ago, I did not believe it was remotely possible at the time. But things are aligning very well.

    We chose the right guy, boring is how you win the next election.
    He is a good, competent leader against a party that is tired and facing a heavy political pendulum after 12 years in office.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Excluding DKs as per usual practice from the headline numbers (+/-1 as don't have the full data for rounding):

    SNP 38
    Lab 35
    Con 16
    LD 5
    Others 5

    Think the key here is where the DKs come from. Changing circumstance meaning DKs more likely to be temporary here than for a UK wide poll.

    Ex-Con and LD have more DKs, Only 9% of former SNP voters are now DK, while 17% of them have gone Labour.

    https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1626559766167187456
    Or, to split out the DKs by prior affiliation:

    37% of DKs are ex-Con
    35% ex-SNP
    15% ex-LD
    13% ex-Lab
    I would bet that 37% are Con for unionism, not the party.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    WillG said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All settying up nicely for Sir Stormer.

    I outlined the scenario in which Keir Starmer becomes PM some time ago, I did not believe it was remotely possible at the time. But things are aligning very well.

    We chose the right guy, boring is how you win the next election.
    He is a good, competent leader against a party that is tired and facing a heavy political pendulum after 12 years in office.
    Good at electoral strategy, anyway. But there's a lot more to political leadership than that.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,886

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    Labour was always unionist and is now Brexiter in Scotland. Another complication. Mr S has to appeal to the Red Wall in England etc. etc.
    You might have a point if we were still in the EU. But we're not.
    Do you think that Labour would be proposing to leave the EU if we were still in it? Obviously not.
    So to paint Labour as a Brexit party is way off the mark.
    As I have said many times, Brexit is not a policy issue, it is a past event. The related policy issue is joining the EU (whether formally or in practice), and the viability of a politician's position should be judged accordingly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,781
    All the signs are that the developing situation in Scotland is likely to make Labour’s electoral Mountain easier to climb.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 378
    Labour are saying "make Brexit work"-that is an enormous NO NO for the younger age group in Scotland (anybody under 55) and you can be sure the SNP will hammer that message in the General Election.

    It would be amazing if Labour failed to make some gains in Scotland, especially in Glasgow and surrounds, where most of the group of pro-independence but still voting Labour even in 2019 reside. Tory direct switchers to Labour will help them. Tories in Scotland will be lucky to get ZERO.

    My best current thoughts are Robertson as SNP Leader with Forbes (if she is prepared to do it) as his deputy FM. Holyrood election (2026 or earlier if an opportunity presents) switched to from GE for de facto referendum. Sure, there will be a lot of squeeking from those who want independence now, but presented with a ballot paper at any point in the future would such people really vote against independence?
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,467
    edited February 2023
    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,226
    JPJ2 said:

    Labour are saying "make Brexit work"-that is an enormous NO NO for the younger age group in Scotland (anybody under 55) and you can be sure the SNP will hammer that message in the General Election.

    It would be amazing if Labour failed to make some gains in Scotland, especially in Glasgow and surrounds, where most of the group of pro-independence but still voting Labour even in 2019 reside. Tory direct switchers to Labour will help them. Tories in Scotland will be lucky to get ZERO.

    My best current thoughts are Robertson as SNP Leader with Forbes (if she is prepared to do it) as his deputy FM. Holyrood election (2026 or earlier if an opportunity presents) switched to from GE for de facto referendum. Sure, there will be a lot of squeeking from those who want independence now, but presented with a ballot paper at any point in the future would such people really vote against independence?

    More under 55s in Scotland back Brexit than oppose homosexual marriage and oppose abortion if Kate Forbes joins the SNP leadership.

    Starmer's would be a softer Brexit than now anyway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,226
    edited February 2023

    Leon said:

    So, about that idea of a GE being a defacto independence referendum?

    Indeed. And yet at least 30% of SNP activists are hardcore Indy-now types who want UDI if needs be

    This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”

    Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone

    A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
    It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. How will this work if Labour returns to being a unionist party of government in Scotland?
    'That's is a very interesting irony that you've identified there, that I first noticed around the time of the Referendum in 2016, and that I think may actually end up helping Unionists ; it's much harder to hate "London" and cities like it like Oxford, when these are some of the only places in England supporting your greater independence, because, often enough they actually have more clturally in common with you than Middle England.'


    Yes, culturally Glasgow has far more in common with inner London or the city of Oxford than it does with rural Scotland
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,372

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I'm not that keen on this sort of thing. The more authoritarian side of New Labour is not something I want to see back.
    Opposing the government is easy. Coming up with policies of your own, that don’t annoy loads of your new supporters, is more difficult.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288

    Sandpit said:

    Can someone explain the Nicola Bulley missing person story to me please? What have I missed, were all these private detectives and search teams hired by the family or by the media? It sounds like a total mess, watching from afar.

    It's a total mess, I think thats all anyone can take. The media have been the media on it, and the police haven't helped themselves at all.
    Social Media, especially twitter, has been poor on it too. The people who were previously expert virologists, epidemioligists and military strategists are now experts on Search and Rescue.

    Sadly this awful situation is just merely clickbait for the media and the topic du jour for mediocre talking heads on breakfast and daytime TV.

    It is awful.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,601
    Carnyx said:

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Also the poll antedates her resignation.
    WTF is that monstrosity?

    PREDATES!

    Antedates indeed! Pah!
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288

    Taz said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-plans-community-courts-to-punish-antisocial-offenders-9s9dc62gn

    Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders

    Labour doesn't have any policies.

    Well it's not much better than the new Labour days of ASBO's and threatening to march anti social offenders off to cashpoints to pay fines.

    It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
    Yes, I have to say that I'm not that keen on this sort of thing either . The more authoritarian days of New Labour being something I don 't particularly want to see back.
    I do hope Starmer is more old style labour than New Labour. Blair and co were quite open about their more authoritarian streak and it is something I would hate to see back too.

    People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,027

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1626554080544886784

    We have passed peak SNP for the foreseeable/

    You are seeing something I’m not. Quite possibly you hate SNP and end of the Union so much, your psephological opinion doesn’t count on this, as you are far too biased.

    Getting excited over one poll and the stepping down of a leader 8 years in? 8 years is a long time in UK politics, very hard to maintain same political image and energy beyond that with 8 years worth of flies that stick like you are flypaper.

    Plenty of time and room for SNP to bounce upwards under a fresh leader, if they make a deft start. Also the Tory to Labour gap nationwide will close to some degree too before the general election, absolutely no one on here will bet money on it being as wide as 26-47 on Election Day.

    The only way SNP support will collapse for a sustained period will be losing a 2nd Indy ref. Until that moment the prospect of independence through them and only them maintains their support at 30%+ in all coming elections.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can someone explain the Nicola Bulley missing person story to me please? What have I missed, were all these private detectives and search teams hired by the family or by the media? It sounds like a total mess, watching from afar.

    It's a total mess, I think thats all anyone can take. The media have been the media on it, and the police haven't helped themselves at all.
    Social Media, especially twitter, has been poor on it too. The people who were previously expert virologists, epidemioligists and military strategists are now experts on Search and Rescue.

    Sadly this awful situation is just merely clickbait for the media and the topic du jour for mediocre talking heads on breakfast and daytime TV.

    It is awful.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ace_in_the_Hole_(1951_film)

    It's an old pattern, and one that keeps repeating.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,601
    ohnotnow said:

    Very off-topic, but it sounds like the aftermath of the storm that hit New Zealand is really pretty devastating.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64674195

    "
    New Zealand's prime minister says he expects there to be more deaths from a violent storm which killed eight people and cut off hundreds of communities.

    More than 4,500 people have yet to be contacted after Cyclone Gabrielle hit on Monday, causing significant flooding and landslides across the North Island.

    Many cities and towns are also without power or clean drinking water.

    A national state of emergency has been declared, only the third in New Zealand's history.

    "This is undoubtedly the biggest natural disaster that we've seen probably this century," Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said.

    "

    How will that play in Christchurch I wonder?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,552
    Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.

    I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,601

    5/ This week, Keir said his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn will not stand for Labour at the next election. We asked how this changed people’s views of Labour:

    🙂 25% view them more favourably
    😐 44% view them the same as before
    🙁 12% view them less favourably

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1626477767922532352?s=20

    That’s probably accurate.

    But I suspect that the 12% are more likely to change their voting behaviour than the 25% so you (or they) have only posted half the story
  • HYUFD said:

    JPJ2 said:

    Labour are saying "make Brexit work"-that is an enormous NO NO for the younger age group in Scotland (anybody under 55) and you can be sure the SNP will hammer that message in the General Election.

    It would be amazing if Labour failed to make some gains in Scotland, especially in Glasgow and surrounds, where most of the group of pro-independence but still voting Labour even in 2019 reside. Tory direct switchers to Labour will help them. Tories in Scotland will be lucky to get ZERO.

    My best current thoughts are Robertson as SNP Leader with Forbes (if she is prepared to do it) as his deputy FM. Holyrood election (2026 or earlier if an opportunity presents) switched to from GE for de facto referendum. Sure, there will be a lot of squeeking from those who want independence now, but presented with a ballot paper at any point in the future would such people really vote against independence?

    More under 55s in Scotland back Brexit than oppose homosexual marriage and oppose abortion if Kate Forbes joins the SNP leadership.

    Starmer's would be a softer Brexit than now anyway
    Talking of which:

    From @DeltapollUK via email newsletter. #EURef2 vi" Rejoin 52 (+4); Stay Out 43 (-2). Fwork 10-13.2 (ch since 3-6.2).

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1626175511566118912


    Not enough (yet) for a rejoin referendum. And whilst it's maddening for some of those who think that Britain took a wrong turn in 2016, patience is a better strategy than "Referendum NOW".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,770
    MaxPB said:

    Fieldwork pre-resignation so that 38% for the SNP will drop further, could see them end up on ca. 30% by election date and Labour on 45%.

    I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.

    It’s not dead. But it is now properly dormant. Which has serious ramifications for the SNP - because their record on everything else (except chasing Indy) is lamentable

    This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?

    It isn’t the Nits


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,027

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Spot on. The Scottish majority will be rallying around the chance for independence for a long time yet. Support for SNP and likelihood of a new Indy vote in the coming years going nowhere in short term.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,027

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    But not crucially, the Tories.

    This means as the main pro-Union party, Labour have built in support they have not had since 2010.

    This makes the odds of a Labour majority much higher.
    “This makes the odds of a Labour majority much higher.”

    “red Tories” benefitting as being preferred unionist vote in Scotland, by default of Tories painting themselves as incompetence and sleaze ridden is going to gain Labour how many seats at next election you predicting?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,038
    Sandpit said:

    Can someone explain the Nicola Bulley missing person story to me please? What have I missed, were all these private detectives and search teams hired by the family or by the media? It sounds like a total mess, watching from afar.

    It's a missing person case that ticks all the media and social media boxes, with the additional element that there appears to be no direct evidence at all but some indirect evidence, and the further additional element that there is, tragically, a chance that it will never be resolved, and finally there is an indeterminate number of possibilities, all of which are difficult or impossible to follow up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 90,977
    edited February 2023
    Beware of false dawns, etc. But would be a game changer indeed. Even a partial move in this direction is catastrophic for Sunak's hope's.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,781
    edited February 2023
    kle4 said:

    Beware of false Dawn’s, etc. But would be a game changer indeed. Even a partial move in this direction is catastrophic for Sunak's hope's.

    Dawn’s what?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,578
    edited February 2023

    Carnyx said:

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Also the poll antedates her resignation.
    WTF is that monstrosity?

    PREDATES!

    Antedates indeed! Pah!
    It's in Chambers Dictionary. 1993 edition. And probably my older ones downstairs. Perfectly OK.

    Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.

    But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 90,977

    I think it is reading too much into one poll.

    Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.

    It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)

    I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.

    Spot on. The Scottish majority will be rallying around the chance for independence for a long time yet. Support for SNP and likelihood of a new Indy vote in the coming years going nowhere in short term.
    Yes, the fundamental desire has not shifted at this time, so swing back would not surprise. Here's hoping though - the more unionists mps of any stripe the better.
This discussion has been closed.