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Huge blow for the SNP in new Scottish YouGov poll – politicalbetting.com
Huge blow for the SNP in new Scottish YouGov poll – politicalbetting.com
BREAKING: New Scotland poll from @YouGov / @ScotVoting puts Labour just two points behind SNP in General Election voting intention. SNP down 16 points on 2019, Labour up 8 points https://t.co/nN6lPtS9cF
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We have passed peak SNP for the foreseeable/
A 12% swing to Scottish Labour which would see 23 SNP seats go Labour
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
Other interpretations are available for the fall in SNP support (if poll is accurate).
This cannot hold. The two powerful personalities of Salmond then Sturgeon held all this incoherence together, along with the promise of “Indy soon, it’s coming, any day now”
Now we know that Indy ain’t coming for a long time. And the two charismatic leaders have gone
A massive row is inevitable, with much ugly blood letting, and a formal split is quite likely
Edit: If the Conservatives are on 12%, I'm guessing these numbers are excluding Don't Knows/Won't Says.
SNP: 38% (-7% since 2019)
Labour: 35% (+16%)
Conservative: 16% (-9%)
Lib Dem: 5% (-5%)
Green: 3% (+2%)
What is the chance of independence
and
Can the SNP forge a future with significance and power.
For quite a long time, as I am sure NS knew well, the answer to the first question is: Practically Zero. She resigned at the moment her excellent delay, blame and avoid strategy ran out of road.
Only once you accept the first answer can the SNP decide its real future. If it doesn't, it hasn't got one.
It only has one potentially charismatic leader, Kate Forbes. She won't stand and never will. I don't think she will be in front line politics in 10 years time anyway. Sadly. Wrong party.
Sturgeons actions and resignation have created a game of 52 Card Pickup. The question is who will pickup what cards, from the floor.
It’s all in flux at the moment. If the SNP pick a good replacement and unite behind them, it could swing back (!)
I think it is all to play for - for both Labour and the SNP.
The country will need it.
The polling dates from before Sturgeon's resignation, so there is some volatility to play out before a new first minister completes their honeymoon. But, yes, the central expectation ought to be that Labour's polling improvement in Scotland has advanced a little more by the time the dust settles.
This means as the main pro-Union party, Labour have built in support they have not had since 2010.
This makes the odds of a Labour majority much higher.
This isn't a good poll for Kate Forbes. It very much suggests the SNP need another left wing leader.
Well it looks like the idea that Scottish Labour can only win votes from the Tories rather than the SNP might be coming to an end.
Just 1 poll, but YouGov has 17% of 2019 SNP voters switching to SLab, and 18% of Scottish Tories.
In practice that's 2x as many switchers from SNP.
Sturgeon was very much the face of independence, passion , charisma in bucket loads . You’d go on that journey to independence because of her .
Westminster voting intention (Scotland):
SNP: 29%
LAB: 27%
CON: 12%
LDM: 4%
GRN: 2%
Don't Know: 14%
Would not vote: 7%
Via @YouGov, On 10th-15th February.
SNP 38
Lab 35
Con 16
LD 5
Others 5
Think the key here is where the DKs come from. Changing circumstance meaning DKs more likely to be temporary here than for a UK wide poll.
Excluding the don't knows manually (so could be rounding errors here of ±1%)...
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP: 38% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+7)
CON: 16% (+1)
LDM: 5% (-1)
GRN: 3% (=)
Via @YouGov, 10-15 Feb.
Changes w/ 23-26 Jan.
More likely the Tories have consistently fked things up and he gets his chance of power as they have burnt their own house down. Being last man standing doesnt mean he has any gift for outstanding governance, he's as dull as dishwater and has no ideas on what to do if in power. At least Jezza had an agenda.
SNP: 38% (-7% since 2019)
Labour: 35% (+17%)
Conservative: 16% (-9%)
Lib Dem: 5% (-4%)
Green: 3% (+2%)
YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor, 10th-15th February
https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1626559514345410560
As @StuartDickson is atypically silent, I will do his normal task of adding it up
Pro-Indy parties: 41%
Pro-Union parties: 56%
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&scotshow=Y&CON=25&LAB=48&LIB=10&Reform=5&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=35&SCOTLIB=3&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=38&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
National Prediction: Labour majority 304
Labour: 477 seats
Tories: 97 seats
SNP: 30 seats
Lib Dems: 22 seats
Plaid: 4 seats
Greens: 1 seat
Other: 1 seat
NI: 18 seats
Would make Keir Starmer the most successful Labour leader in Labour history
She had a chance to be flexible. Instead she nailed her trousers to the masthead going with the “THERE IS NO PROBLEM” option
Then immediately afterwards had to climb down.
The question is whether these events were the cause, or just the catalyst. I believe, that in a number of cases, a sudden drop in the polls is the sum of issues bubbling away, with a particular straw triggering it.
Keir getting rid of the previous Scotts Labour leader was a masterstroke.
Don't make promises you can't keep. It works brilliantly for a bit, but always bites you on the bum in the end.
Yes, Boris, I am looking at you.
It might also pose some difficulties for Labour because the newly radicalised metropolitan left in England tends to support Scottish independence now because Brexit. That's is a very interesting irony that you've identified there, that I first noticed around the time of the Referendum in 2016, and that I think may actually end up helping Unionists ; it's much harder to hate "London" and cities like it like Oxford, when these are some of the only places in England supporting your greater independence, because, often enough they actually have more clturally in common with you than Middle England.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=345633
Portugal announced on Thursday a hefty package of measures to tackle a housing crisis, including the end of its controversial "Golden Visa" scheme and a ban on new licenses for Airbnbs and other short-term holiday rentals.
Rents and house prices have skyrocketed in Portugal, which is among the poorest countries in Western Europe. Last year, more than 50 percent of workers earned less than 1,000 euros per month while in Lisbon alone, rents jumped 37 percent in 2022.
Low salaries, a red-hot property market, policies encouraging wealthy foreigners to invest and a tourism-dependent economy have for years made it hard for locals to rent or buy, housing groups have said. Portugal's 8.3 percent inflation rate has exacerbated the problem...
A valid concern. But a bit rich coming from a woman who attacked other women who disagreed with her in pretty unpleasant terms and who refused to condemn threats of rape made against her colleague, Joanna Cherry, one of which has resulted in a criminal conviction. Another such threat is coming to court soon.
A self-proclaimed "feminist to her fingertips" would have said something in solidarity with a fellow woman politician in the same party, surely?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64674195
"
New Zealand's prime minister says he expects there to be more deaths from a violent storm which killed eight people and cut off hundreds of communities.
More than 4,500 people have yet to be contacted after Cyclone Gabrielle hit on Monday, causing significant flooding and landslides across the North Island.
Many cities and towns are also without power or clean drinking water.
A national state of emergency has been declared, only the third in New Zealand's history.
"This is undoubtedly the biggest natural disaster that we've seen probably this century," Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said.
"
My Seat Model:
LAB: 30 (+29)
SNP: 21 (-27)
CON: 3 (-3)
LDM: 5 (+1)
Changes w/ GE2019.
What you find intolerable is more important than what you support.
Brexit has not helped. Large numbers of both factions find intolerableness in every available option from the main parties. This is a major problem in UK politics with no immediate solution.
🙂 25% view them more favourably
😐 44% view them the same as before
🙁 12% view them less favourably
https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1626477767922532352?s=20
https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1626559766167187456
Labour plans ‘community courts’ to punish antisocial offenders
Labour doesn't have any policies.
We chose the right guy, boring is how you win the next election.
1. Why are you excluding DK/WNV? Not the standard way of reporting poll results. Why the special treatment?
2. “ it is apparent that a fair bit of its previous Scottish support was down to its now-outgoing leader.” Huh? The fieldwork is pre-resignation.
Do you think that Labour would be proposing to leave the EU if we were still in it? Obviously not.
So to paint Labour as a Brexit party is way off the mark.
From Gordon Britttas to Tony Blair.
And who will be the first to call 'Peak Starmer'. It must be coming fairly soon.
The mystery remains what happened in Summer 2021- the bit between Hartlepool and Batley by elections.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/world/andrew-tate-muslim-men-manosphere-intl-cmd/index.html
These people will never accept they have got it wrong.
37% of DKs are ex-Con
35% ex-SNP
15% ex-LD
13% ex-Lab
It would be amazing if Labour failed to make some gains in Scotland, especially in Glasgow and surrounds, where most of the group of pro-independence but still voting Labour even in 2019 reside. Tory direct switchers to Labour will help them. Tories in Scotland will be lucky to get ZERO.
My best current thoughts are Robertson as SNP Leader with Forbes (if she is prepared to do it) as his deputy FM. Holyrood election (2026 or earlier if an opportunity presents) switched to from GE for de facto referendum. Sure, there will be a lot of squeeking from those who want independence now, but presented with a ballot paper at any point in the future would such people really vote against independence?
It strikes of a lack of any will to invest in the legal system
Why not just hire more magistrates? It's not like they are that expensive.
Starmer's would be a softer Brexit than now anyway
Yes, culturally Glasgow has far more in common with inner London or the city of Oxford than it does with rural Scotland
Sadly this awful situation is just merely clickbait for the media and the topic du jour for mediocre talking heads on breakfast and daytime TV.
It is awful.
PREDATES!
Antedates indeed! Pah!
People mock Lee Anderson for his rhetoric and who he is appealing to and how he does it. Labour should be wary of doing the same.
Getting excited over one poll and the stepping down of a leader 8 years in? 8 years is a long time in UK politics, very hard to maintain same political image and energy beyond that with 8 years worth of flies that stick like you are flypaper.
Plenty of time and room for SNP to bounce upwards under a fresh leader, if they make a deft start. Also the Tory to Labour gap nationwide will close to some degree too before the general election, absolutely no one on here will bet money on it being as wide as 26-47 on Election Day.
The only way SNP support will collapse for a sustained period will be losing a 2nd Indy ref. Until that moment the prospect of independence through them and only them maintains their support at 30%+ in all coming elections.
It's an old pattern, and one that keeps repeating.
I think independence is dead. Scotland had one chance, they bottled it.
But I suspect that the 12% are more likely to change their voting behaviour than the 25% so you (or they) have only posted half the story
From @DeltapollUK via email newsletter. #EURef2 vi" Rejoin 52 (+4); Stay Out 43 (-2). Fwork 10-13.2 (ch since 3-6.2).
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1626175511566118912
Not enough (yet) for a rejoin referendum. And whilst it's maddening for some of those who think that Britain took a wrong turn in 2016, patience is a better strategy than "Referendum NOW".
This is great news for Scotland. Scottish voters might now look beyond Indy and think: Who will best use the powers we have? Who is best for the Scottish economy and people?
It isn’t the Nits
For most of my life (but not currently), I have been a Liberal/LibDem member, and thus am inherently resistant to voting tactically.
Yet I have sufficient awareness of the fact that I relied upon Labour tactical votes to get me elected six times running as a LibDem councillor in London, and that most LibDem MPs rely on the same lending of support. And I desperately want to see this risible May-clown-lunatic-Sunak Tory government receive its just desserts.
Thus, likely to end up in the Isle of Wight East seat at the next election (less safe for the Tories than IOW West which Seely will defend), I should be open to the possibility of backing the Labour candidate to avoid being landed with another Tory MP.
My criteria for lending them my vote are:
- that the local candidate has a track record of co-operating across parties and isn’t a Labour Party tribalist (I have as yet no idea who they might put up);
- that Labour makes some sort of commitment to recognise the errors of the Tory approach to Brexit and intends to mend the disruption to free trade and travel that Brexit has delivered;
- that Labour signs up to political reform including abolishing the Lords (so far, a tick) and changing the voting system for the Commons (so far, a fail)
As yet, I am not seeing it.
“red Tories” benefitting as being preferred unionist vote in Scotland, by default of Tories painting themselves as incompetence and sleaze ridden is going to gain Labour how many seats at next election you predicting?
Indeed, 'predate; is defined in large part as = antedate.
But thanks for the suggestion - useful to have a synonym when the sound of the sentence needs it.