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LDs very close to taking Wokingham in new constituency poll – politicalbetting.com

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  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Genius @Luckyguy1983 hasn’t read the first clause of the bill -

    “1.
    Sunset of EU-derived subordinate legislation and retained direct EU
    legislation
    (1) The following are revoked at the end of 2023—
    (a) EU-derived subordinate legislation;
    (b) retained direct EU legislation.”

    So TUPE goes at the end of this year unless a minister says it stays.

    So, genius, how does that square with your sunny interpretation?
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Countess Felicity Cunliffe Lister, who lives in a castle, gains a North Yorkshire County Council seat for the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives.

    Further proof the LDs are now the posh party, not the Tories

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/13/countess-castle-steeped-tory-history-wins-blue-wall-council/



    Trouble up road 🤭
    Presumably @HYUFD would assert if the LDs don't govern it, they probably own it.
    King Charles would almost certainly be a LD if he could vote too yes
    Charles would have backed Corbyn, if he could.

    No he wouldn't, Corbyn was a republican.

    He would have voted Remain in 2016, then LD in 2017 and 2019.

    He might now vote for Starmer though
    KC would vote Green, shirley?
    I really don't know how any of the Royal Family would voted in any GE in their lifetimes, from KC3 down though heir or spare, they really don't give much away, and rightly so.

    KC3 could as easily be a Cameroon as a Green.
    The Queen Mother was a Thatcherite and pro UKIP. The Queen would have been and Princess Anne and Prince Edward would be One Nation Tory, the Duke of Edinburgh more rightwing Conservative, as would Prince Andrew.

    Princess Diana was New Labour as would the Sussexes be. Camilla would be more Tory than her LD husband.

    The Prince and Princess of Wales are basically Cameroon Tories, probably torn between Sunak and Starmer though they wouldn't have voted for Boris or Truss
    How do you know all this?

    Don't forget it was reported that Kate and Baldy blackballed Blair and Brown from attending their wedding.
    A spokesman for St James’s Palace said Mr Blair and Mr Brown had not received invitations because neither were Knights of the Garter, unlike Sir John and Lady Thatcher.

    Following the death of Diana, Princess of Wales in 1997, Sir John Major, was appointed a guardian to Princes William and Harry and the Palace said he was invited for this “very specific reason”.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13029054.blair-brown-fail-make-royal-wedding-guest-list/

    Of course some journalists spun this into a “snub”…

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,303
    Major-General Vladimir Makarov, former deputy chief of the Interior Ministry's Main Directorate for Countering Extremism was found dead with a gunshot to the head from a rifle in #Moscow. Kremlin reports it was 'suicide.' He was fired by Putin in January 2023.
    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1625203430427099136
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Nigelb said:

    Major-General Vladimir Makarov, former deputy chief of the Interior Ministry's Main Directorate for Countering Extremism was found dead with a gunshot to the head from a rifle in #Moscow. Kremlin reports it was 'suicide.' He was fired by Putin in January 2023.
    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1625203430427099136

    Wasn't he the bad guy from Call of Duty Modern Warfare?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,937
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Countess Felicity Cunliffe Lister, who lives in a castle, gains a North Yorkshire County Council seat for the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives.

    Further proof the LDs are now the posh party, not the Tories

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/13/countess-castle-steeped-tory-history-wins-blue-wall-council/



    Trouble up road 🤭
    Presumably @HYUFD would assert if the LDs don't govern it, they probably own it.
    King Charles would almost certainly be a LD if he could vote too yes
    Charles would have backed Corbyn, if he could.

    No he wouldn't, Corbyn was a republican.

    He would have voted Remain in 2016, then LD in 2017 and 2019.

    He might now vote for Starmer though
    KC would vote Green, shirley?
    I really don't know how any of the Royal Family would voted in any GE in their lifetimes, from KC3 down though heir or spare, they really don't give much away, and rightly so.

    KC3 could as easily be a Cameroon as a Green.
    The Queen Mother was a Thatcherite and pro UKIP. The Queen would have been and Princess Anne and Prince Edward would be One Nation Tory, the Duke of Edinburgh more rightwing Conservative, as would Prince Andrew.

    Princess Diana was New Labour as would the Sussexes be. Camilla would be more Tory than her LD husband.

    The Prince and Princess of Wales are basically Cameroon Tories, probably torn between Sunak and Starmer though they wouldn't have voted for Boris or Truss
    How do you know all this?

    Don't forget it was reported that Kate and Baldy blackballed Blair and Brown from attending their wedding.
    A spokesman for St James’s Palace said Mr Blair and Mr Brown had not received invitations because neither were Knights of the Garter, unlike Sir John and Lady Thatcher.

    Following the death of Diana, Princess of Wales in 1997, Sir John Major, was appointed a guardian to Princes William and Harry and the Palace said he was invited for this “very specific reason”.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13029054.blair-brown-fail-make-royal-wedding-guest-list/

    Of course some journalists spun this into a “snub”…

    Like the journalists you reference, I was being mischievous.

    Although my wider point, not withstanding HY is a genuine font of polling knowledge, how the **** can he read the minds of royalty, stands.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,070

    CatMan said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.
    That's not what he was saying 3 years ago:


    "The UK’s chief negotiator has said the government is not scared of walking away from talks with the European Union without a deal and vowed not to blink in the final phase.

    David Frost is due to hold another round of key negotiations in London with his counterpart, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, next week as they look to agree a trade deal before autumn sets in.

    In a bullish interview with the Mail on Sunday (MoS), Lord Frost said the UK was preparing to leave the transition period “come what may” – even if that meant exiting with no deal, which officials have dubbed an “Australian-style” arrangement."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/06/uks-brexit-negotiator-says-government-is-not-scared-of-no-deal-exit
    No, it wasn't, quite on purpose. It was bluff and bluster. He has said of those staements that they tried, but the EU saw right through it. May and Hammond had not funded no deal prep.
    So he gave an interview to a newspaper and lied. How do we know he isn't lying now?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    edited February 2023

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now, like the split in Irish politics long ago, they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit means and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light you go to the raptures.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,689
    kle4 said:

    CatMan said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.
    That's not what he was saying 3 years ago:


    "The UK’s chief negotiator has said the government is not scared of walking away from talks with the European Union without a deal and vowed not to blink in the final phase.

    David Frost is due to hold another round of key negotiations in London with his counterpart, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, next week as they look to agree a trade deal before autumn sets in.

    In a bullish interview with the Mail on Sunday (MoS), Lord Frost said the UK was preparing to leave the transition period “come what may” – even if that meant exiting with no deal, which officials have dubbed an “Australian-style” arrangement."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/06/uks-brexit-negotiator-says-government-is-not-scared-of-no-deal-exit
    He and Boris pilloried May for being unwilling to no deal and instead put up with a bad deal, yet they both now seem to be admitting they felt the same way, which makes their agitating against her particularly shameless (especially as Boris for one was willing to vote for her in the end).
    They fooled plenty with that but not the EU.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,872
    edited February 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Genius @Luckyguy1983 hasn’t read the first clause of the bill -

    “1.
    Sunset of EU-derived subordinate legislation and retained direct EU
    legislation
    (1) The following are revoked at the end of 2023—
    (a) EU-derived subordinate legislation;
    (b) retained direct EU legislation.”

    So TUPE goes at the end of this year unless a minister says it stays.

    So, genius, how does that square with your sunny interpretation?

    What's to stop the minister deciding that 95% of stuff stays. Indeed, after all JRM's bluster, isn't that the most likely outcome?

    So specifically-saved and specifically-not-saved as mechanism is orthogonal to the percentages saved or not saved as outcome...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,937
    edited February 2023

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit mens and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light, then you go to the raptures.
    Very off topic

    Whoa! All your letters and words are merging into an alphabet soup. I can't cope.

    Anyway, every time I read an @Luckyguy1983 post, I imagine Alan Price at the piano singing the theme from Lindsey Anderson's O Lucky Man; " If you have a friend on whom you think you can rely you are a lucky man..."
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    Genius @Luckyguy1983 hasn’t read the first clause of the bill -

    “1.
    Sunset of EU-derived subordinate legislation and retained direct EU
    legislation
    (1) The following are revoked at the end of 2023—
    (a) EU-derived subordinate legislation;
    (b) retained direct EU legislation.”

    So TUPE goes at the end of this year unless a minister says it stays.

    So, genius, how does that square with your sunny interpretation?

    What's to stop the minister deciding that 95% of stuff stays. Indeed, after all JRM's bluster, isn't that the most likely outcome?

    So specifically-saved and specifically-not-saved as mechanism is orthogonal to the percentages saved or not saved as outcome...
    The problem is that the default position is that everything goes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,689

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I didn't notice a 'bull in the china shop' approach to uncoupling with the EU from Boris - as far as I can see we made very little progress in that area at all during his tenure. We must all speak as we find. I am sure some of Gove's DEFRA reforms have been positive, but during our time within the CAP, we had farmers making money from such things as set aside, we had orchards ripped up, we were the only EU country with a milk quota lower than its population needs. Environmental concerns are hugely important, but I would have hoped that any post-Brexit agricultural strategy would have had increasing the production of good quality domestic food as a core aim. Subsidising things like re-wilding efforts seems to me very much in line with current EU policy, whether or not the policies match precisely. I could be very wrong and I freely admit that is a surface surmise.

    I don't agree with sweeping away EU law for the sake of it either, but I absolutely agree that it should be done where it is clear that there is an advantage in doing so. Hopefully you would agree.
    Yes I would agree with removing EU law as necessary. But setting an arbitrary date for that without really worrying about what will replace it is Blair levels of stupidity (remembering he tried to get rid of the Lord Chancellor in 2003 without realising that without the post no laws could be promulgated by Parliament)
    I don't think that really reflects what the bill does. JRM's statement to parliament about it offers a useful summary: https://www.ukpol.co.uk/jacob-rees-mogg-2022-statement-on-retained-eu-law/

    This passage seems particularly relevant:

    Before that date (31 December 2023), Government Departments and the devolved Administrations will determine which retained EU law can be reformed to benefit the UK, which can expire, and which needs to be preserved and incorporated into domestic law in modified form. They will also decide if retained EU law needs to be codified as it is preserved, in order to preserve specific policy effects which are beneficial to keep.

    The Bill includes an extension mechanism for the sunset of specified pieces of retained EU law until 2026. Should it be required, this will allow Departments additional time where necessary to implement more complex reforms to specific pieces of retained EU law, including any necessary legislation.


    I agree that EU law that is right, must be retained and added to the domestic statute book, but that is the plan. It just won't have special status under the law by being 'EU law' any more. That is fair, and I can't see why anyone who is actually in favour of Brexit would disagree.
    Because the reality was that JRM and the rest of the crew were effectively doing little to nothing to actually ensure that the work was done to achieve their aim. Bear in mind that any EU law or regulation that has not been revised and brought into English law by the end of 2023 automatically falls. Moreover a lot of this should be being done by Parliament rather than simply decided by a minister. Many Brexit supporters are just as unhappy about the way this is being done as former Remainers are.
    It would not automatically 'fall', it would be transferred to a parliamentary statute and have its status as EU law removed.

    The relevant line is this:

    Any retained EU law that remains in force after the sunset date will be assimilated in the domestic statute book, by the removal of the special EU law features previously attached to it.

    That doesn't seem scary to me. I also don't think a hard deadline is a bad thing, given the supreme lack of activity you correctly identify that we've seen.
    But that can't happen without the work being done. That is the whole point. Otherwise the law become meaningless and would cause nothing but confusion.

    I agree that we should be transcribing EU laws and getting rid of those we don't need. But that all takes time and a hell of a lot of work, negotiation and debate - much of which should rightly be done by Parliament not by ministers. There is absolutely no need for the artificial deadline., It is pointless and counter productive. Much like JRM himself.
    "Work" you say? Rather than perpetual grandstanding for diminishing returns?

    That would be great.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    Genius @Luckyguy1983 hasn’t read the first clause of the bill -

    “1.
    Sunset of EU-derived subordinate legislation and retained direct EU
    legislation
    (1) The following are revoked at the end of 2023—
    (a) EU-derived subordinate legislation;
    (b) retained direct EU legislation.”

    So TUPE goes at the end of this year unless a minister says it stays.

    So, genius, how does that square with your sunny interpretation?

    What's to stop the minister deciding that 95% of stuff stays. Indeed, after all JRM's bluster, isn't that the most likely outcome?

    So specifically-saved and specifically-not-saved as mechanism is orthogonal to the percentages saved or not saved as outcome...
    It would be lovely if they could do it like, now. Because the legal uncertainty is impacting business and investment
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Countess Felicity Cunliffe Lister, who lives in a castle, gains a North Yorkshire County Council seat for the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives.

    Further proof the LDs are now the posh party, not the Tories

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/13/countess-castle-steeped-tory-history-wins-blue-wall-council/

    So who are the Tories for exactly?
    Leavers, home owning pensioners and the rich, high earners and posh
    Sounds like the recipe for extinction.
    No, the median voter is now aged 50 and voted Leave in 2016.
    Median. Don’t you mean “mean”?

    This is exactly what you get wrong in doing your opinion poll average isn’t it?
    Mean? Don't you mean "greedy"? As in, greedy over 50s vote Tory.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,872

    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    Genius @Luckyguy1983 hasn’t read the first clause of the bill -

    “1.
    Sunset of EU-derived subordinate legislation and retained direct EU
    legislation
    (1) The following are revoked at the end of 2023—
    (a) EU-derived subordinate legislation;
    (b) retained direct EU legislation.”

    So TUPE goes at the end of this year unless a minister says it stays.

    So, genius, how does that square with your sunny interpretation?

    What's to stop the minister deciding that 95% of stuff stays. Indeed, after all JRM's bluster, isn't that the most likely outcome?

    So specifically-saved and specifically-not-saved as mechanism is orthogonal to the percentages saved or not saved as outcome...
    The problem is that the default position is that everything goes.
    Addressed by my second paragraph, albeit clumsily.

    The ministry writes down a list of what needs to go. The ministry writes down a list of all laws affected. Subtract one from the other. Done.

    (Unless your list of all laws is defective. Then you would indeed have a problem...)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    Nigelb said:

    Major-General Vladimir Makarov, former deputy chief of the Interior Ministry's Main Directorate for Countering Extremism was found dead with a gunshot to the head from a rifle in #Moscow. Kremlin reports it was 'suicide.' He was fired by Putin in January 2023.
    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1625203430427099136

    Have the windows stuck shut?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    Genius @Luckyguy1983 hasn’t read the first clause of the bill -

    “1.
    Sunset of EU-derived subordinate legislation and retained direct EU
    legislation
    (1) The following are revoked at the end of 2023—
    (a) EU-derived subordinate legislation;
    (b) retained direct EU legislation.”

    So TUPE goes at the end of this year unless a minister says it stays.

    So, genius, how does that square with your sunny interpretation?

    What's to stop the minister deciding that 95% of stuff stays. Indeed, after all JRM's bluster, isn't that the most likely outcome?

    So specifically-saved and specifically-not-saved as mechanism is orthogonal to the percentages saved or not saved as outcome...
    The problem is that the default position is that everything goes.
    Addressed by my second paragraph, albeit clumsily.

    The ministry writes down a list of what needs to go. The ministry writes down a list of all laws affected. Subtract one from the other. Done.

    (Unless your list of all laws is defective. Then you would indeed have a problem...)
    There are thousands, thousands of regulations. What “needs” to go or stay is arbitrary unless much more time and debate is spent on it.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Countess Felicity Cunliffe Lister, who lives in a castle, gains a North Yorkshire County Council seat for the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives.

    Further proof the LDs are now the posh party, not the Tories

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/13/countess-castle-steeped-tory-history-wins-blue-wall-council/

    So who are the Tories for exactly?
    Leavers, home owning pensioners and the rich, high earners and posh
    Sounds like the recipe for extinction.
    No, the median voter is now aged 50 and voted Leave in 2016.
    Median. Don’t you mean “mean”?

    This is exactly what you get wrong in doing your opinion poll average isn’t it?
    Opinium... must... have... Opinium...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now, like the split in Irish politics long ago, they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit means and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light you go to the raptures.
    Ironically there is still loads and loads of Westminster legislation still on the statute books in Ireland. Including the Official Secrets Act 1911 IIRC.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,303
    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    Genius @Luckyguy1983 hasn’t read the first clause of the bill -

    “1.
    Sunset of EU-derived subordinate legislation and retained direct EU
    legislation
    (1) The following are revoked at the end of 2023—
    (a) EU-derived subordinate legislation;
    (b) retained direct EU legislation.”

    So TUPE goes at the end of this year unless a minister says it stays.

    So, genius, how does that square with your sunny interpretation?

    What's to stop the minister deciding that 95% of stuff stays. Indeed, after all JRM's bluster, isn't that the most likely outcome?

    So specifically-saved and specifically-not-saved as mechanism is orthogonal to the percentages saved or not saved as outcome...
    Not much; just as nothing really to stop their junking everything.
    That's what folk are complaining about when they say Parliament has handed over rather a large amount of scrutiny free power.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Countess Felicity Cunliffe Lister, who lives in a castle, gains a North Yorkshire County Council seat for the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives.

    Further proof the LDs are now the posh party, not the Tories

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/13/countess-castle-steeped-tory-history-wins-blue-wall-council/

    So who are the Tories for exactly?
    Leavers, home owning pensioners and the rich, high earners and posh
    Sounds like the recipe for extinction.
    No, the median voter is now aged 50 and voted Leave in 2016.
    Median. Don’t you mean “mean”?

    This is exactly what you get wrong in doing your opinion poll average isn’t it?
    Opinium... must... have... Opinium...
    The fact it was consistent fortnightly polling was good - drawing a line through 8 of them showed direction of travel over a 16 week period. On the other hand, if they polled Tories at 25% and unlike everyone else doctored extra 4% swingback on top, why should the 29% go into the poll of polls when really it was 25% like everyone else - it was screwing the poll of polls.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Countess Felicity Cunliffe Lister, who lives in a castle, gains a North Yorkshire County Council seat for the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives.

    Further proof the LDs are now the posh party, not the Tories

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/13/countess-castle-steeped-tory-history-wins-blue-wall-council/

    So who are the Tories for exactly?
    Leavers, home owning pensioners and the rich, high earners and posh
    Sounds like the recipe for extinction.
    No, the median voter is now aged 50 and voted Leave in 2016.
    Median. Don’t you mean “mean”?

    This is exactly what you get wrong in doing your opinion poll average isn’t it?
    Mean? Don't you mean "greedy"? As in, greedy over 50s vote Tory.
    I’ll leave you to think of that one.

    But, I always skipped off maths because it was rubbish so correct me where wrong, the difference between mean and median is what you were both doing last week, you were averaging polls, HY looking at the numbers for the regular ones, whilst I posted snippets of graphs shouting: look at those sagging tits, terrible news for Labour the right one being bigger than the left one. remember?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,047

    Nigelb said:

    Major-General Vladimir Makarov, former deputy chief of the Interior Ministry's Main Directorate for Countering Extremism was found dead with a gunshot to the head from a rifle in #Moscow. Kremlin reports it was 'suicide.' He was fired by Putin in January 2023.
    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1625203430427099136

    Have the windows stuck shut?
    He was in a 1st floor apartment - so it wasn't worth the effort.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    edited February 2023
    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now, like the split in Irish politics long ago, they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit means and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light you go to the raptures.
    Ironically there is still loads and loads of Westminster legislation still on the statute books in Ireland. Including the Official Secrets Act 1911 IIRC.
    That’s interesting. As a parallel with The vital speed EU era legislation has to be binned in order for us to be free.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,303
    CatMan said:

    CatMan said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.
    That's not what he was saying 3 years ago:


    "The UK’s chief negotiator has said the government is not scared of walking away from talks with the European Union without a deal and vowed not to blink in the final phase.

    David Frost is due to hold another round of key negotiations in London with his counterpart, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, next week as they look to agree a trade deal before autumn sets in.

    In a bullish interview with the Mail on Sunday (MoS), Lord Frost said the UK was preparing to leave the transition period “come what may” – even if that meant exiting with no deal, which officials have dubbed an “Australian-style” arrangement."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/06/uks-brexit-negotiator-says-government-is-not-scared-of-no-deal-exit
    No, it wasn't, quite on purpose. It was bluff and bluster. He has said of those staements that they tried, but the EU saw right through it. May and Hammond had not funded no deal prep.
    So he gave an interview to a newspaper and lied. How do we know he isn't lying now?
    Watch for when his lips stop moving.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,303
    ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    Major-General Vladimir Makarov, former deputy chief of the Interior Ministry's Main Directorate for Countering Extremism was found dead with a gunshot to the head from a rifle in #Moscow. Kremlin reports it was 'suicide.' He was fired by Putin in January 2023.
    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1625203430427099136

    Have the windows stuck shut?
    He was in a 1st floor apartment - so it wasn't worth the effort.
    How do we know he didn't fall out of a window and then shoot himself ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    Good evening PB.

    Has @Leon declared whether or not an alien invasion has begun?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,303
    One for Morris Dancer ?

    John Malcovitch is appearing in a German comedy (?!) about Seneca.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=APZEhv-3xDw
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    edited February 2023
    On topic, of course the LD's *could* do the the Tories what Labour wants to do with seats they lost in 2019... but we all know they won't as every general election always sees the Liberal Democrats performance turning into a letdown lol!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    edited February 2023
    GIN1138 said:

    Good evening PB.

    Has @Leon declared whether or not an alien invasion has begun?

    If the Chinese have been doing this for years, as the sheer number reported that annually hover over Taiwan is remotely true, and only now governments and military have started taking action to these things spying on their bases in North America, then they have been asleep at the wheel and it’s a bit of a scandal.

    so what we have is a game of reaction and seen to be doing something, as they go from fast asleep to the hysterical, every backyard science project is blasted as all part of growing tensions with China.

    https://blog.jgc.org/2011/04/gaga-1-flight.html

    For me ET playing no part in this. But if China was doing this for years without political or military reaction, it’s going to become a political football for opposition politicians to score goals with.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    edited February 2023

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now, like the split in Irish politics long ago, they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit means and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light you go to the raptures.
    If you want to get to heaven you first have to pass through hell... ;)

    Sorry but fantasies about the death of the Conservative Party will prove as reliable as they did from around 1995 to 2002 and fantasies about the death of the Labour Party around 1992 and 2019.

    Sure, they're going to lose the next election but the Tories are like cockroaches... they will always survive!
  • You know that businessman who quit the Tories because he doesn’t support the Tory culture war? Guess where else he works….

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/people/iain-anderson
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now, like the split in Irish politics long ago, they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit means and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light you go to the raptures.
    If you want to get to heaven you first have to pass through hell...

    Sorry but fantasies about the death of the Conservative Party will prove as reliable as they did from around 1995 to 2002 and fantasies about the death of the Labour Party around 1992 and 2019.

    Sure, they're going to lose the next election but the Tories are like cockroaches... they will always survive!
    Exactly, the only way the Conservative Party ever dies is if RefUK overtakes it as the main party of the right under FPTP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Countess Felicity Cunliffe Lister, who lives in a castle, gains a North Yorkshire County Council seat for the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives.

    Further proof the LDs are now the posh party, not the Tories

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/13/countess-castle-steeped-tory-history-wins-blue-wall-council/



    Trouble up road 🤭
    Presumably @HYUFD would assert if the LDs don't govern it, they probably own it.
    King Charles would almost certainly be a LD if he could vote too yes
    Charles would have backed Corbyn, if he could.

    No he wouldn't, Corbyn was a republican.

    He would have voted Remain in 2016, then LD in 2017 and 2019.

    He might now vote for Starmer though
    KC would vote Green, shirley?
    I really don't know how any of the Royal Family would voted in any GE in their lifetimes, from KC3 down though heir or spare, they really don't give much away, and rightly so.

    KC3 could as easily be a Cameroon as a Green.
    The Queen Mother was a Thatcherite and pro UKIP. The Queen would have been and Princess Anne and Prince Edward would be One Nation Tory, the Duke of Edinburgh more rightwing Conservative, as would Prince Andrew.

    Princess Diana was New Labour as would the Sussexes be. Camilla would be more Tory than her LD husband.

    The Prince and Princess of Wales are basically Cameroon Tories, probably torn between Sunak and Starmer though they wouldn't have voted for Boris or Truss
    How do you know all this?

    Don't forget it was reported that Kate and Baldy blackballed Blair and Brown from attending their wedding.
    I said they were Cameroon Tories, not New Labour like the Sussexes
  • Nigelb said:

    One for Morris Dancer ?

    John Malcovitch is appearing in a German comedy (?!) about Seneca.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=APZEhv-3xDw

    Malkovich Malkovich?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6Fuxkinhug
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,319
    edited February 2023
    Both the Times and the Telegraph refer to “the Queen” rather than “the Queen Consort” on their front pages.

    Not good.

    If this is the new official style, it’s a clumsy move by Charles.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,872

    You know that businessman who quit the Tories because he doesn’t support the Tory culture war? Guess where else he works….

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/people/iain-anderson

    Former campaign manager for Ken Clarke on his leadership campaigns, not just a businessman.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,872

    Both the Times and the Telegraph refer to “the Queen” rather than “the Queen Consort” on their front pages.

    Not good.

    If this is the new official style, it’s a clumsy move by Charles.

    Queen consorts are Queens. Consort rights are human rights.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,319
    carnforth said:

    You know that businessman who quit the Tories because he doesn’t support the Tory culture war? Guess where else he works….

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/people/iain-anderson

    Former campaign manager for Ken Clarke on his leadership campaigns, not just a businessman.
    Yes, we can’t have gays or crypto-remainers in the Conservative Party.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,782

    France has told its citizens to leave Belarus immediately.

    My generic advice to visitors in Belarus would be to leave Belarus immediately no matter what the circumstances.

    Unless you are on the pull in the Astoria nightclub in Vitebsk then my advice is wear three condoms and a stab vest.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,872

    carnforth said:

    You know that businessman who quit the Tories because he doesn’t support the Tory culture war? Guess where else he works….

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/people/iain-anderson

    Former campaign manager for Ken Clarke on his leadership campaigns, not just a businessman.
    Yes, we can’t have gays or crypto-remainers in the Conservative Party.
    Oh, sorry. I must be one of those homophobic gays. I'll shut up now.
  • New thread

  • carnforth said:

    Both the Times and the Telegraph refer to “the Queen” rather than “the Queen Consort” on their front pages.

    Not good.

    If this is the new official style, it’s a clumsy move by Charles.

    Queen consorts are Queens. Consort rights are human rights.
    Queen Mistress more like :lol:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now, like the split in Irish politics long ago, they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit means and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light you go to the raptures.
    If you want to get to heaven you first have to pass through hell...

    Sorry but fantasies about the death of the Conservative Party will prove as reliable as they did from around 1995 to 2002 and fantasies about the death of the Labour Party around 1992 and 2019.

    Sure, they're going to lose the next election but the Tories are like cockroaches... they will always survive!
    Exactly, the only way the Conservative Party ever dies is if RefUK overtakes it as the main party of the right under FPTP
    Not true HY.

    The party and voter base could pretty neatly split - just like Labour did in my example, and IRA did to leave two parties, in my example.

    Note how Labour tensions did not split the party until after the election loss.

    Also note exactly how the Tory Party splits during the next parliament had been beautifully defined for us tonight by LuckyMan.
    Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more, so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out, versus, the best Brexit deal for UK can include some small EU legal involvement only over very limited areas of the deal.

    A neat split, but a bloody one over a key point of Brexit principle. RefUK don’t even exist after this split, subsumed into the first group, yet two groups of the right and centre right fielding candidates against each other as centre left and left did in the 1980s.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The Retained EU Law Bill is yet another attempt to appease the ERG nutjobs .

    Instead of taking your time to get it right the rush to do this by an arbitrary date will lead to a host of issues but the Tories only care for good headlines in the vomit inducing sycophantic right wing press .

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now, like the split in Irish politics long ago, they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit means and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light you go to the raptures.
    If you want to get to heaven you first have to pass through hell... ;)

    Sorry but fantasies about the death of the Conservative Party will prove as reliable as they did from around 1995 to 2002 and fantasies about the death of the Labour Party around 1992 and 2019.

    Sure, they're going to lose the next election but the Tories are like cockroaches... they will always survive!
    I didn’t post this opinion simply to be provocative and get under anyones skin - Tory’s joining Starmer’s government in the lobby over votes on the current Brexit deal is 100% going to happen in the years ahead. So life getting easier for Tory’s after losing the coming election is certainly not to be taken for granted.

    LuckyMan has perfectly explained the splitting point. So I ask both yourself and HY, who disagree with me, you can’t be on both those Brexit deal arguments at the same time, so which one is you?

    Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more, so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out,
    versus,
    the best Brexit deal for UK economy and business can include some small EU legal involvement only over very limited areas of the deal.

    Which one are you, you have to be one or the other? Are you with Gove and the rebels voting with Starmer (like Jenkins and crew 1973) or punching and spitting at the sell out traitors (like the Irish Civil War?)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    You know that businessman who quit the Tories because he doesn’t support the Tory culture war? Guess where else he works….

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/people/iain-anderson

    Former campaign manager for Ken Clarke on his leadership campaigns, not just a businessman.
    Yes, we can’t have gays or crypto-remainers in the Conservative Party.
    Oh, sorry. I must be one of those homophobic gays. I'll shut up now.
    I ain’t no homophobe, my bitch is gay.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,872

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    You know that businessman who quit the Tories because he doesn’t support the Tory culture war? Guess where else he works….

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/people/iain-anderson

    Former campaign manager for Ken Clarke on his leadership campaigns, not just a businessman.
    Yes, we can’t have gays or crypto-remainers in the Conservative Party.
    Oh, sorry. I must be one of those homophobic gays. I'll shut up now.
    I ain’t no homophobe, my bitch is gay.
    My boyfriend's gay; I just lie there.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Good evening PB.

    Has @Leon declared whether or not an alien invasion has begun?

    If the Chinese have been doing this for years, as the sheer number reported that annually hover over Taiwan is remotely true, and only now governments and military have started taking action to these things spying on their bases in North America, then they have been asleep at the wheel and it’s a bit of a scandal.

    so what we have is a game of reaction and seen to be doing something, as they go from fast asleep to the hysterical, every backyard science project is blasted as all part of growing tensions with China.

    https://blog.jgc.org/2011/04/gaga-1-flight.html

    For me ET playing no part in this. But if China was doing this for years without political or military reaction, it’s going to become a political football for opposition politicians to score goals with.
    There is a fascinating bit of history reported in the book 'Trading with the Enemy' by Charles Higham. In the late 1930s the US military decided they wanted to have all of their bases photographed from the ground and air. They were persuaded by some well placed German- American businessmen to use the latest AGFA cameras and film and have the photos processed by General Aniline and Film - which was a subsidiary of IG Farben the huge German chemicals company. Needless top say, this meant that in 1939 Berlin ended up with photographs of all the US bases around the Pacific, copies of which were found at the end of the war in the Japanese Military Headquarters in Tokyo. The Germans even kept the originals and gave the US Government copies.

    Who needs balloons when your enemy asks you to take the photos yourselves with their blessing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Weirder, and weirder


    “The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html

    ...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.

    The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
    “so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“

    The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
    Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
    Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
    I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
    Claiming Gove is not a proper leaver just because he wants to try and make things work rather than Johnson and Rees Mogg's bull in a china shop approach is just plain dumb. He is one of the few Ministers who actually tried to start doing something positive around post Brexit reforms, particularly at DEFRA. The idea that the only 'pure and proper' Brexit is one that sweeps away every last vestige of EU law in as short a time as possible is really, really stupid.
    I agree with you. I think it goes back to how the Mail were being so weird in how they covered the story. It’s not just the bull in a China shop Brexit that will satisfy all leave voters, to use your phrase, but it is the only Brexit that will satisfy the bull in the China shop brexiteers. Hence they build the story around Frosty the noman saying his Brexit deal is not a failure, it was never properly implemented is the failure. That’s the story the mail is pushing.

    The actual story is leading brexiteers and remainers are talking to each other about next steps. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably never be in EU ever again to the extent we were - but the reason for Gove and Mandleson in a next steps seminar together is because the bull in the China shop Brexit favoured by the mail is dead, it was never going to deliver, it’s going to be consigned to the dustbin forever, because they only had the one chance to make bull in China shop Brexit work, they failed, and they will never have the power for a bull in a China shop Brexit ever again, that moment has sailed.

    Hence the next steps seminar. The country moves on.

    I can't find any element of this that reflects reality. Lord Frost is very critical of his own deal, which he blames on the lack of leverage because the country wasn't able to leave without a deal.

    JRM's Retained EU law bill is actually quite carefully considered, and I cannot see any evidence for the sort of legal vacuum scenario that Richard mentions within the way the bill is planned. We have left the EU, why would we remain subject to EU law, and why would that law remain superior to parliamentary statute? That's not an extreme version of Brexit, it's the basic version as expected and understood by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.

    Gove has undoubted merits, but has always been a slimy toad. It is zero surprise that nobody trusts him on Brexit - it would be daft to trust him with a sharp pair of scissors.
    Ireland slipped into a bloody civil war over wether to accept a deal or not. Michael Collins led the yes to the deal faction. The labour movement split over Europe, Lord Jenkins led a labour MP faction voting for Europe membership in a crucial vote Tory Primeminister would have lost if they hadn’t. That faction become the SDP whilst Labour put Brexit into its election manifesto.

    What do I mean? Sometime during the next parliament Gove leads a faction of Tory MPs into the Labour Government lobby in a big vote on tweaking the existing Brexit deal. The Tories become split and bloody civil war over it.

    Anyone who thinks day after the next GE the cleansing is over and it’s all uphill for the Tories is utterly deluded.
    You'll be relieved to learn that I have managed to plough through one of your medium length essays. To be fair there were a few points I couldn't disagree with. But don't you think the Conservatives are like cockroaches and they will survive Armageddon?
    Maybe not a split over brexit.

    To be fair to LuckyMan, he defines brexit as no role at all for EU law - Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more - so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out worthy of Michael Collins or Lord Jenkins?

    Do you see what I mean? The Tory problems with Brexit are only just beginning, if you consider up to this time it was a vague Brexit means Brexit and will bring sunlit uplands. Now, like the split in Irish politics long ago, they have to define the basis of a Brexit deal that both honours what Brexit means and brings sunlit uplands, without splitting as a party and a voter base.

    Yes this could be the end of the Conservative Party. When you have always been fearing the darkness, no longer embracing the light you go to the raptures.
    If you want to get to heaven you first have to pass through hell...

    Sorry but fantasies about the death of the Conservative Party will prove as reliable as they did from around 1995 to 2002 and fantasies about the death of the Labour Party around 1992 and 2019.

    Sure, they're going to lose the next election but the Tories are like cockroaches... they will always survive!
    Exactly, the only way the Conservative Party ever dies is if RefUK overtakes it as the main party of the right under FPTP
    Not true HY.

    The party and voter base could pretty neatly split - just like Labour did in my example, and IRA did to leave two parties, in my example.

    Note how Labour tensions did not split the party until after the election loss.

    Also note exactly how the Tory Party splits during the next parliament had been beautifully defined for us tonight by LuckyMan.
    Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more, so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out, versus, the best Brexit deal for UK can include some small EU legal involvement only over very limited areas of the deal.

    A neat split, but a bloody one over a key point of Brexit principle. RefUK don’t even exist after this split, subsumed into the first group, yet two groups of the right and centre right fielding candidates against each other as centre left and left did in the 1980s.
    May have happened had May stayed, not now Brexit has been delivered. In fact the Conservatives will become even more like RefUK if they lose.

    In 1983 the SDP only prospered as the centre between the Thatcherite Conservative hard right and the Foot Labour hard left but under FPTP still came 3rd in 1983.

    Starmer already occupiers the centre ground so no room really for a pro EU centrist Tory party, especially under FPTP. Indeed the LDs already occupy that ground now anyway
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650

    Nigelb said:

    One for Morris Dancer ?

    John Malcovitch is appearing in a German comedy (?!) about Seneca.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=APZEhv-3xDw

    Malkovich Malkovich?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6Fuxkinhug
    If you said Ayrton Seneca you’d have his attention.

    How can we get Morris off his fear of the reply button? Maybe hypnotism
    ‘Your finger is reaching to the quote button, but your mind is safe in the belly of an enormous haddock”.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,314
    Nigelb said:

    One for Morris Dancer ?

    John Malcovitch is appearing in a German comedy (?!) about Seneca.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=APZEhv-3xDw

    They should have cast Robert de Nero.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 935
    Do not understand this poll. Surely anything should be based on the 2019 election, the swings would be much less.
This discussion has been closed.