On topic. I am hearing quite a few interesting rumours concerning several currently Tory seats where the Lib Dems are doing very well locally and yet which the polls do not show them taking nationally. It could be that the voters are still not moving, but equally it could be the pollsters are not picking up how effective Davey´s party can be on the ground.
I am thinking that come May we could see some big wins from the Yellows, and that, reminded of their existence, the voters may give them a stronger hearing. So what does the PB Hivemind think could be the upper or lower limits if the blues are seeing a big switch to the Lib Dems in wealthy, Remain positive, well educated seats?
Also, if the SNP tide is indeed now ebbing, where do their voters switch to? Could Lib Dems come through the middle to recover their former Highland and North East Scotland redoubt?
I have always found your comments on Wales and Scotland to have the 'on the spot' reliability and expertise of someone who is posting from Tallinn, Estonia.
On topic. I am hearing quite a few interesting rumours concerning several currently Tory seats where the Lib Dems are doing very well locally and yet which the polls do not show them taking nationally. It could be that the voters are still not moving, but equally it could be the pollsters are not picking up how effective Davey´s party can be on the ground.
I am thinking that come May we could see some big wins from the Yellows, and that, reminded of their existence, the voters may give them a stronger hearing. So what does the PB Hivemind think could be the upper or lower limits if the blues are seeing a big switch to the Lib Dems in wealthy, Remain positive, well educated seats?
Also, if the SNP tide is indeed now ebbing, where do their voters switch to? Could Lib Dems come through the middle to recover their former Highland and North East Scotland redoubt?
The Libs used to be in favour of greater devolution; IIRC to at least where we are now, whereas Labour were at best lukewarm and the Conservatives against.
The May elections really need to be good for the Lib Dems, otherwise the danger is that a Labour surge come general election time sees them leapfrog straight into first place in a lot of the blue wall. Obviously good news for Labour if they manage it, but potentially bad news for both if the result is the anti-Tory vote is split.
The big problem is that the 2019 elections were a real high water mark for the Lib Dems, whereas Labour did pretty badly (though not as badly as May's conservatives). So the story could well be Labour taking ground from Lib Dem at council level in the SE and West Country, and the Tories doing much worse against Labour while shoring up support against the Lib Dems. Not great optics. People forget just how abjectly May did in those 2019 locals.
Noticeable trend in a few recent polls for the leader ratings to go further against Sunak (and in this case towards Starmer) while the generic party polling lead stays stable or shrinks a bit.
Overall suggests perhaps the current VI is now carrying less anti-Tory froth and is solidifying a little.
EDIT: though I notice Sunak approval is also up in this poll contrary to most recent ones
Labour 48% (-2) Conservative 27% (+3) Liberal Democrat 9% (-1) Reform UK 6% (–) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 5 February
Adding the Reform share to the Tory share and then doubling it gives 66% to the Tories. Labour in deep trouble.
Labour do have something akin to deep trouble - they're nowhere near ready for government. Admittedly they're far better prepared under Starmer now than they have been for years, but they are still a shambles. The Blair landslide was long signalled and the Labour all-sorts did make an effort to be ready. The current mob need to copy that.
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
and later on
Must be a serious chance they call off the whole game. Idiot Liverpool twits
Yep. Hands up. I got that wrong
In my partial defence, after about 30 minutes I realised there was more to the story - but nonetheless my first reaction was crass. Tho quite nicely phrased
The Conservatives' desire to 'fight a culture war' was the 'final straw' for business leader Iain Anderson, who defected from the Tories to join Labour. He says the party has 'turned in on itself'.
When people like him and Rory Stuart don't feel welcome (I don't agree with their policies but I don't doubt they are decent enough people) the Tory Party is dead
Labour 48% (-2) Conservative 27% (+3) Liberal Democrat 9% (-1) Reform UK 6% (–) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 5 February
Adding the Reform share to the Tory share and then doubling it gives 66% to the Tories. Labour in deep trouble.
Labour do have something akin to deep trouble - they're nowhere near ready for government. Admittedly they're far better prepared under Starmer now than they have been for years, but they are still a shambles. The Blair landslide was long signalled and the Labour all-sorts did make an effort to be ready. The current mob need to copy that.
But this gets us back to the different standards demanded of Labour and the Tories. Cameron was moderately well prepared for government, though hardly to a stellar degree. May was completely unprepared and reliant on two special advisers to cook up an entire policy platform on the hoof. Johnson was personally prepared for fame and fortune but nothing else - his party stumbled drunkenly from one ad-hoc policy ramble to the next. And then Truss, well. Now we have Sunak and his cabinet of clowns who appear to have done no homework at all.
So I would argue that for all their shortcomings Labour are significantly more "ready for government" than our actual government(s) of at least the last 6 years. And they still have time to become even more ready.
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
and later on
Must be a serious chance they call off the whole game. Idiot Liverpool twits
Yep. Hands up. I got that wrong
In my partial defence, after about 30 minutes I realised there was more to the story - but nonetheless my first reaction was crass. Tho quite nicely phrased
Sorry, Liverpool X
Liverpool says, "Ok but please no repeat offences".
Liverpool are also of particular interest to me tonight. Have a 4 way acca with the 1st 3 legs in - last leg being them to win the Merseyside derby.
So although I don't normally root for them, walk on, walk on, walk o-o-on ...
The ballooons-are-ET story is still given credence by the Guardian tonight. This is quite remarkable in itself
Isn't there supposed to be another press conference on this coming up ? 1pm at Washington Time, I believe, although it may be just a general press conference covering other topics, too. The media pack will still be ravenous on it, obviously, and presumably most interested on asking about that, I would assume.
My first Zoom meeting in zooming ages. All participants saying they've had connection problems. Something which Teams is increasingly free of...
Got to say we have been using Teams continuously for he last few years and almost never have any connection issues. It is even able to withstand the variable comms with the rigs where IP phones and data systems fall over.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
Labour 48% (-2) Conservative 27% (+3) Liberal Democrat 9% (-1) Reform UK 6% (–) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 5 February
Adding the Reform share to the Tory share and then doubling it gives 66% to the Tories. Labour in deep trouble.
Labour do have something akin to deep trouble - they're nowhere near ready for government. Admittedly they're far better prepared under Starmer now than they have been for years, but they are still a shambles. The Blair landslide was long signalled and the Labour all-sorts did make an effort to be ready. The current mob need to copy that.
But this gets us back to the different standards demanded of Labour and the Tories. Cameron was moderately well prepared for government, though hardly to a stellar degree. May was completely unprepared and reliant on two special advisers to cook up an entire policy platform on the hoof. Johnson was personally prepared for fame and fortune but nothing else - his party stumbled drunkenly from one ad-hoc policy ramble to the next. And then Truss, well. Now we have Sunak and his cabinet of clowns who appear to have done no homework at all.
So I would argue that for all their shortcomings Labour are significantly more "ready for government" than our actual government(s) of at least the last 6 years. And they still have time to become even more ready.
The Tories have been awful, and increasingly bad. Both May and Boris were poorly prepared, but they had clearly done some thinking about it. Truss - hopeless. Sunak has just caught a long and wonky pass and sees a wall in front of him - we'll see.
Labour are looking more worthwhile day-by-day, and that's nothing to do with Tory decline, and probably everything to do with Starmer. There's a long way to go though, and I suspect they'll get ambushed by their own highway-bandits.
On topic. I am hearing quite a few interesting rumours concerning several currently Tory seats where the Lib Dems are doing very well locally and yet which the polls do not show them taking nationally. It could be that the voters are still not moving, but equally it could be the pollsters are not picking up how effective Davey´s party can be on the ground.
I am thinking that come May we could see some big wins from the Yellows, and that, reminded of their existence, the voters may give them a stronger hearing. So what does the PB Hivemind think could be the upper or lower limits if the blues are seeing a big switch to the Lib Dems in wealthy, Remain positive, well educated seats?
Also, if the SNP tide is indeed now ebbing, where do their voters switch to? Could Lib Dems come through the middle to recover their former Highland and North East Scotland redoubt?
One thing that Davey is good at is ground level organisation, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some useful gains in the Blue Wall in the May locals.
I thought it would be a couple of decades to recover from GE 2015, and still do, so would be cautious with expectations for 2024 GE. Slow progress rather than large numbers of gains.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
I don't know about UFO-gate but the Pentagon blithely shooting down innocent alien ships in a gung-ho manner (whilst the general chews a cigar) leading to a subsequent angry takeover of the whole planet by a giant invasion fleet is just what happens in the films.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
On topic. I am hearing quite a few interesting rumours concerning several currently Tory seats where the Lib Dems are doing very well locally and yet which the polls do not show them taking nationally. It could be that the voters are still not moving, but equally it could be the pollsters are not picking up how effective Davey´s party can be on the ground.
I am thinking that come May we could see some big wins from the Yellows, and that, reminded of their existence, the voters may give them a stronger hearing. So what does the PB Hivemind think could be the upper or lower limits if the blues are seeing a big switch to the Lib Dems in wealthy, Remain positive, well educated seats?
Also, if the SNP tide is indeed now ebbing, where do their voters switch to? Could Lib Dems come through the middle to recover their former Highland and North East Scotland redoubt?
One thing that Davey is good at is ground level organisation, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some useful gains in the Blue Wall in the May locals.
I thought it would be a couple of decades to recover from GE 2015, and still do, so would be cautious with expectations for 2024 GE. Slow progress rather than large numbers of gains.
The thing is- there are 650 seats up for grabs, and someone has to win each of them. Even if you can make a fairly good case why nobody should do well. In the Conservatives' case- look around you. For Labour, they're starting well back and Starmer is boring. Lib Dems- who? SNP- clearly hit a wall.
But some party has to supply each of the MPs for the next Parliament.
And if Starmer is the next PM, he'll be adequate. He has two years left to prepare, and his record since 2020 shows he's a fast learner. And whilst adequate may not be what we collectively want, it may be more than we collectively deserve.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
I massively disagree - Starmer will last for at best two years. (Simply because he has impossible aspirations, and his party is making impossible claims in a near to impossible climate)
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
I massively disagree - Starmer will last for at best two years. (Simply because he has impossible aspirations, and his party is making impossible claims in a near to impossible climate)
Unseating an incumbent Labour leader is almost impossible, though, especially if they are PM.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
It isn't just precedent. The Tories seem very unsure of what they stand for any more, apart from feather bedding the grey vote (something creeping up on me quite quickly now).
It will take a long period of opposition to decide what that direction should be, and a good few years before they can convince the voters to accept it.
I see no sign or desire for Camooron style tack to the centre and pragmatism in either candidate or policy.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
I massively disagree - Starmer will last for at best two years. (Simply because he has impossible aspirations, and his party is making impossible claims in a near to impossible climate)
Unseating an incumbent Labour leader is almost impossible, though, especially if they are PM.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
The ballooons-are-ET story is still given credence by the Guardian tonight. This is quite remarkable in itself
If aliens managed to cross galactic distances to get here, they almost certainly have faster than light technology, making them order of magnitudes technologically superior to us.
i.e. they won't have crude floating machines that can be shot down by simple rockets.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
Why do you think the US has a semiconductor industry in the first place ?
I'd prefer to have some of the highly profitable industries in the UK.
US universities, national laboratories, and west coast electronics companies clustering, plus a whole load of Cold War spending, especially on electronics for aircraft, air defence, and ballistic missiles. The desire to integrate components and build more robust systems lead to the sort of electronics production that later facilitated LSI for computer systems, and ultimately enabled the micro-computer. I'm pretty sure that giving enormous tax breaks to already huge and highly profitable companies paid no real part in it, but if I'm wrong someone can pipe up.
As Max pointed out, and as you just described, it is about funding.
The US government bought 90% of US (& the world's) semiconductor production in the industry's early years.
And the startups quoted in the article I linked are neither huge nor yet highly profitable.
Yup, if the government facilitated guaranteed buyers within the UK and subsidised the difference between global market price and buying from UK semiconductor companies for a period of 10 years it would probably be enough to get the industry going, but it would also cost tens of billions over that 10 years and even after that there's no guarantee that those companies will stay solvent once they are bidding for contracts on the open market.
Here, though, we're talking about specialist businesses. Paragraf, for instance, is developing graphene on semiconductor products.
More generally, it's about staying in the technology game. If too many leave, that becomes even harder to reverse.
I look at it the same way we did the Movie/TV subsidies which have been a huge, huge success and made the UK a TV and movie production super power. The initial costs are very high and the industry will always need some underlying support mechanism but the payoff is huge, visual media production is going to be our third largest single industry this decade after financial services and pharmaceuticals. When that production rebate was created it wasn't even in our top 20.
Completely screwed by Brexit. Your post should be in the past tense. Media has been one of the great success stories over the last 20 years. Pinewood and Shepperton have been doing roaring business backed by advertising production and all the ancillary services. A lot of the feeder industries have historically originated by the BBC which has recently been emasculated. Advertising which is the backbone of the success of the media industry and something which we have excelled at is now moving to Europe and Eastern Europe at that. It's going to go down as one of the greatest acts of self harm any country could have done to itself
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
The ballooons-are-ET story is still given credence by the Guardian tonight. This is quite remarkable in itself
If aliens managed to cross galactic distances to get here, they almost certainly have faster than light technology, making them order of magnitudes technologically superior to us.
i.e. they won't have crude floating machines that can be shot down by simple rockets.
Well they might, because they need some sort of protocol to start interacting with us. They can't start showing us FTL technology in action because we wouldn't recognise it. This is giving a new puppy a ball to play with.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
On topic. I am hearing quite a few interesting rumours concerning several currently Tory seats where the Lib Dems are doing very well locally and yet which the polls do not show them taking nationally. It could be that the voters are still not moving, but equally it could be the pollsters are not picking up how effective Davey´s party can be on the ground.
I am thinking that come May we could see some big wins from the Yellows, and that, reminded of their existence, the voters may give them a stronger hearing. So what does the PB Hivemind think could be the upper or lower limits if the blues are seeing a big switch to the Lib Dems in wealthy, Remain positive, well educated seats?
Also, if the SNP tide is indeed now ebbing, where do their voters switch to? Could Lib Dems come through the middle to recover their former Highland and North East Scotland redoubt?
I have always found your comments on Wales and Scotland to have the 'on the spot' reliability and expertise of someone who is posting from Tallinn, Estonia.
There’s another one who comments on Scotland from Gothenburg, Sweden. All these posters on the Baltic Sea. Will it ever end?
The ballooons-are-ET story is still given credence by the Guardian tonight. This is quite remarkable in itself
If aliens managed to cross galactic distances to get here, they almost certainly have faster than light technology, making them order of magnitudes technologically superior to us.
i.e. they won't have crude floating machines that can be shot down by simple rockets.
Unless, of course, the aliens are using these crude balloons to measure the power of our weapons.
On topic. I am hearing quite a few interesting rumours concerning several currently Tory seats where the Lib Dems are doing very well locally and yet which the polls do not show them taking nationally. It could be that the voters are still not moving, but equally it could be the pollsters are not picking up how effective Davey´s party can be on the ground.
I am thinking that come May we could see some big wins from the Yellows, and that, reminded of their existence, the voters may give them a stronger hearing. So what does the PB Hivemind think could be the upper or lower limits if the blues are seeing a big switch to the Lib Dems in wealthy, Remain positive, well educated seats?
Also, if the SNP tide is indeed now ebbing, where do their voters switch to? Could Lib Dems come through the middle to recover their former Highland and North East Scotland redoubt?
One thing that Davey is good at is ground level organisation, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some useful gains in the Blue Wall in the May locals.
I thought it would be a couple of decades to recover from GE 2015, and still do, so would be cautious with expectations for 2024 GE. Slow progress rather than large numbers of gains.
The thing is- there are 650 seats up for grabs, and someone has to win each of them. Even if you can make a fairly good case why nobody should do well. In the Conservatives' case- look around you. For Labour, they're starting well back and Starmer is boring. Lib Dems- who? SNP- clearly hit a wall.
But some party has to supply each of the MPs for the next Parliament.
And if Starmer is the next PM, he'll be adequate. He has two years left to prepare, and his record since 2020 shows he's a fast learner. And whilst adequate may not be what we collectively want, it may be more than we collectively deserve.
Perhaps he'll be a great PM who'll campaign in prose and govern in poetry.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
Boris got brought down by scandal and corruption. Starmer is way too boring to take out dodgy loans or ask party donors to help redecorate Downing Street. And people's expectations will be much lower of his government than Blair's was, so I don't think he'll disappoint anyone who voted for him too much. The one thing I can see which could possibly bring down Starmer quickly is if he misjudges the public mood on the EU and makes noises about re-joining the EU/single market before the electorate are ready. Farage is purportedly making noises about getting back into politics during the mid-term of a Labour government, so I wonder if he's thinking this might happen too.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
Sunak has been PM for just over 100 days, Truss 49 days, Johnson 3 years, May 3 years, Cameron 6 years, Brown nearly 3 years.
The way things have gone recently Starmer will do well to survive as PM to face re-election.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.
The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
Which, ofcourse, though, is not the same as saying that there's any evidence that there isn't , either. We've never come across exterrastrials before, at least officially, either, so how would we know what that evidence looks like.
It's also interesting to note the way in which the new-look open Pentagon seems to have, apparently, taken a bit of a different line on this from the State Department, and White House, sources from the beginning. I myself would personally wait to hear what the Pentagon itself says, or otherwise, on that.
Noticeable trend in a few recent polls for the leader ratings to go further against Sunak (and in this case towards Starmer) while the generic party polling lead stays stable or shrinks a bit.
Overall suggests perhaps the current VI is now carrying less anti-Tory froth and is solidifying a little.
EDIT: though I notice Sunak approval is also up in this poll contrary to most recent ones
My pebble count update. Caution Timsy
Redfield & Wilton (so into political polling they named their firm after a parliamentary constituency - once black boy field and willy farm get renamed) found 28% Tory on 29th Jan two polls ago. Suddenly going 24 was outside the low side of what they normally find, todays poll move merely corrected the last sample - finding more Tory’s, though still less than last month, will reflect across all the measurements in the poll not just the top one. It’s not even a Labour fall in this poll, just back to where the firm normally find it before the last sample.
I would caution not to read too much into week by week poll by poll movements, instead average out a trend from pollsters over half a dozen or more polls, average of all polls over month or more not week by week - sampling is not an exact science, and how the margin of errors bounce back in the next sample, and evens out to a more confident picture of trend line with more samples is how we should follow polling trends.
The overall trend is Tories still stuck somewhere between 26 and 27. The overall picture polls paint is no change - still a smile on Labours plot line and a pair of drooping titties on Tory line. The Sunak bounce the Tory MPs bet the house on when they moved against two Primeministers has yet to happen, in fact the trend is Sunak on slide with the voters. And if you want to equate that to a news narrative, it’s probably the growing impression of sleaze Sunak is a central figure in all these years.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
I massively disagree - Starmer will last for at best two years. (Simply because he has impossible aspirations, and his party is making impossible claims in a near to impossible climate)
Unseating an incumbent Labour leader is almost impossible, though, especially if they are PM.
Well there hasn't been many Labour PMs and 2 of them were ousted.
The ballooons-are-ET story is still given credence by the Guardian tonight. This is quite remarkable in itself
If aliens managed to cross galactic distances to get here, they almost certainly have faster than light technology, making them order of magnitudes technologically superior to us.
i.e. they won't have crude floating machines that can be shot down by simple rockets.
Unless, of course, the aliens are using these crude balloons to measure the power of our weapons.
Interesting that they aren’t interested in testing out Putin’s Huge Weapons….
Jon Tester is leading against all potential Republican nominees for Senate in 2024. That is massive for Democratic chances for keeping the chamber. It is a presidential year too, which helps Dem turnout.
If Sinema is also replaced by Gallego, there could be a filibuster-scrapping majority. Combined with a Dem House, that could mean statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, plus the passing of a new voter rights act that bans gerrymandering.
Well, the House won't vote to ban gerrymandering. Especially the dozen Dems who would lose seats in white majority states under race-blind maps.
The House has already voted to ban gerrymandering and would do again.
Ah, I see. They didn't - they voted to prevent certain types of gerrymandering, while retaining the ones that Democrat minority incumbents benefit from.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
18 months ago in fact. Hartlepool. He looked poltically stronger then than ever. Incredible pace of change. But I don't see Starmer imploding like that. If he slides it will be gradual and due to economic stagnation not his personal foibles.
Why are these aliens mostly interested in Canada and Canada adjacent adjacent parts of the US? Is the rest of the planet too boring or are they into Ice Hockey on Alpha Centurai?
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.
The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
“so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“
The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
Why are these aliens mostly interested in Canada and Canada adjacent adjacent parts of the US? Is the rest of the planet too boring or are they into Ice Hockey on Alpha Centurai?
If you had a reasonable case for asylum under Intergalactic law and were able to get there, Canada would be among the top choices. Persecution on the basis of having two green heads instead of the more usual three blue ones is quite common in the Andromeda galaxy.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
18 months ago in fact. Hartlepool. He looked poltically stronger then than ever. Incredible pace of change. But I don't see Starmer imploding like that. If he slides it will be gradual and due to economic stagnation not his personal foibles.
What did for Johnson was his inability to learn. After the Owen Paterson fiasco he should have read the room a bit been a bit more cautious. Yet he sent his minions out onto the airwaves to lie for him over Pincher, which is ultimately what did for him. I get the sense Starmer tries to avoid mistakes like the plague but would learn from them if he did.
Jon Tester is leading against all potential Republican nominees for Senate in 2024. That is massive for Democratic chances for keeping the chamber. It is a presidential year too, which helps Dem turnout.
If Sinema is also replaced by Gallego, there could be a filibuster-scrapping majority. Combined with a Dem House, that could mean statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, plus the passing of a new voter rights act that bans gerrymandering.
Defensive gerrymandering kept the Republican majority to nine seats, in the House. The Republicans won the popular vote by 51% to 48%, the type of result that would produce a lead of about 40 seats, not long ago.
In a Presidential election year, the Democrats will have huge difficulty retaining Senate seats in Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana, because the Republicans will carry them easily at Presidential level. Really, it will take them selecting batshit candidates for the Senate to lose (something Republicans often do, admittedly).
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.
The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
“so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“
The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
18 months ago in fact. Hartlepool. He looked poltically stronger then than ever. Incredible pace of change. But I don't see Starmer imploding like that. If he slides it will be gradual and due to economic stagnation not his personal foibles.
The awe one feels for the pundit who authoritatively called Peak Johnson on the day of, actually, Peak Johnson (Hartlepool + 1), is not easily put into words.
The idea buying some AirPods for work is in anyway comparable to the Tories and their continued sleaze is laughable
True but Labour are not shy of sleaze themselves. Never forget Ecclestone, thrice sacked Mandelson etc.
I suspect, but cannot prove, that the level of sleaze increases in proportion to time in office. The tories have been there for 13 long years and once again sleaze is consuming them. If/when labour serve a similar term, it will happen to them too. Boundaries get blurred.
I don't subscribe to the view of politics that Labour are more virtuous. It was interesting on The Last Leg to see Adam Hill's suggestion that Labour should give their MP's pay rise to charity utterly dismissed by Dara O'Brain.
Ecclestone is nearly 30 years ago. I know the Tories penchant for living in the past but that's ridiculous
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.
The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
“so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“
The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
Why are these aliens mostly interested in Canada and Canada adjacent adjacent parts of the US? Is the rest of the planet too boring or are they into Ice Hockey on Alpha Centurai?
If you had a reasonable case for asylum under Intergalactic law and were able to get there, Canada would be among the top choices. Persecution on the basis of having two green heads instead of the more usual three blue ones is quite common in the Andromeda galaxy.
Some Boris fans (particularly in the Conservative Party) seem to be trying a 'we wuz robbed' approach to Boris - he should never have had to resign. The problem for them is that the things that caused him to resign are his own character flaws, flaws that have been visible throughout his public life.
A big question is why they think he has suddenly learnt the lessons and fixed those flaws. I really, really doubt he has.
The idea buying some AirPods for work is in anyway comparable to the Tories and their continued sleaze is laughable
True but Labour are not shy of sleaze themselves. Never forget Ecclestone, thrice sacked Mandelson etc.
I suspect, but cannot prove, that the level of sleaze increases in proportion to time in office. The tories have been there for 13 long years and once again sleaze is consuming them. If/when labour serve a similar term, it will happen to them too. Boundaries get blurred.
I don't subscribe to the view of politics that Labour are more virtuous. It was interesting on The Last Leg to see Adam Hill's suggestion that Labour should give their MP's pay rise to charity utterly dismissed by Dara O'Brain.
Ecclestone is nearly 30 years ago. I know the Tories penchant for living in the past but that's ridiculous
It seems like yesterday. For me history ended in 2000, anything after that is a skimpy appendix.
Interesting to see someone actually taking libel actions over social media claims of cash in brown envelopes changing hands. I have seen so many of these allegations in local politics that I'd given up on anyone actually standing up for their reputation...
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
On topic. I am hearing quite a few interesting rumours concerning several currently Tory seats where the Lib Dems are doing very well locally and yet which the polls do not show them taking nationally. It could be that the voters are still not moving, but equally it could be the pollsters are not picking up how effective Davey´s party can be on the ground.
I am thinking that come May we could see some big wins from the Yellows, and that, reminded of their existence, the voters may give them a stronger hearing. So what does the PB Hivemind think could be the upper or lower limits if the blues are seeing a big switch to the Lib Dems in wealthy, Remain positive, well educated seats?
Also, if the SNP tide is indeed now ebbing, where do their voters switch to? Could Lib Dems come through the middle to recover their former Highland and North East Scotland redoubt?
One thing that Davey is good at is ground level organisation, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some useful gains in the Blue Wall in the May locals.
I thought it would be a couple of decades to recover from GE 2015, and still do, so would be cautious with expectations for 2024 GE. Slow progress rather than large numbers of gains.
The thing is- there are 650 seats up for grabs, and someone has to win each of them. Even if you can make a fairly good case why nobody should do well. In the Conservatives' case- look around you. For Labour, they're starting well back and Starmer is boring. Lib Dems- who? SNP- clearly hit a wall.
But some party has to supply each of the MPs for the next Parliament.
And if Starmer is the next PM, he'll be adequate. He has two years left to prepare, and his record since 2020 shows he's a fast learner. And whilst adequate may not be what we collectively want, it may be more than we collectively deserve.
Adequate would be fabulous thanks. Adequate would, I think, have to include: government and parliament honest by the standards of the 10 most honest largest countries; serious addressing of long term issues; no quick fixes; rule of law; proper participation in international bodies; rational policies on tax, spend, debt, deficit; complete review of post Brexit policies with referendum if necessary; proper old fashioned liberal on freedom of speech and academia; honesty and humanity on refugees.
As @MoonRabbit has mentioned, the previous Redfield & Wilton which showed 50-24 looked a bit of an outlier so today's poll, while superficially better for the Conservatives, may be more of a case of reverting to type and we are seeing some herding around high 40s for Labour and high 20s for the Conservatives which is still a solid 20 point advantage.
We've also had the YouGov Wales poll which shows a 12% swing from 2019 and at least that's a sample of 1,000 or so which is better than the very small sub samples we use in the main GB polls.
Looking at the R&W data tables, the 2019 Conservative vote now splits 54% Conservative, 18% Labour and 16% Don't Know. The Conservative DKs represent 46% of all Don't Knows.
Stripping out the DKs, the Conservatives lead 41-34 among the 65+ age group but that's a 20% swing from Conservative to Labour among this critical group. The Wales sub sample has Labour leading the Conservatives 38-35 (very different from the YouGov Wales poll).
For England, the VI share is Labour 51%, Conservatives 27%, LD 10%, Green 6% and Reform 5%. That would be a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Labour and 9% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat. To this observer, some stronger than expected numbers from Wales and Scotland (Conservatives 21% to Labour 28% and SNP 35%) mask a poor England set of numbers.
18.5% would mean everything up to and including Sutton Coldfield (the 259th most vulnerable Conservative seat) would fall suggesting a rump Conservative Parliamentary party of around 100-120 MPs.
Why do you think the US has a semiconductor industry in the first place ?
I'd prefer to have some of the highly profitable industries in the UK.
US universities, national laboratories, and west coast electronics companies clustering, plus a whole load of Cold War spending, especially on electronics for aircraft, air defence, and ballistic missiles. The desire to integrate components and build more robust systems lead to the sort of electronics production that later facilitated LSI for computer systems, and ultimately enabled the micro-computer. I'm pretty sure that giving enormous tax breaks to already huge and highly profitable companies paid no real part in it, but if I'm wrong someone can pipe up.
As Max pointed out, and as you just described, it is about funding.
The US government bought 90% of US (& the world's) semiconductor production in the industry's early years.
And the startups quoted in the article I linked are neither huge nor yet highly profitable.
Yup, if the government facilitated guaranteed buyers within the UK and subsidised the difference between global market price and buying from UK semiconductor companies for a period of 10 years it would probably be enough to get the industry going, but it would also cost tens of billions over that 10 years and even after that there's no guarantee that those companies will stay solvent once they are bidding for contracts on the open market.
Here, though, we're talking about specialist businesses. Paragraf, for instance, is developing graphene on semiconductor products.
More generally, it's about staying in the technology game. If too many leave, that becomes even harder to reverse.
I look at it the same way we did the Movie/TV subsidies which have been a huge, huge success and made the UK a TV and movie production super power. The initial costs are very high and the industry will always need some underlying support mechanism but the payoff is huge, visual media production is going to be our third largest single industry this decade after financial services and pharmaceuticals. When that production rebate was created it wasn't even in our top 20.
Completely screwed by Brexit. Your post should be in the past tense. Media has been one of the great success stories over the last 20 years. Pinewood and Shepperton have been doing roaring business backed by advertising production and all the ancillary services. A lot of the feeder industries have historically originated by the BBC which has recently been emasculated. Advertising which is the backbone of the success of the media industry and something which we have excelled at is now moving to Europe and Eastern Europe at that. It's going to go down as one of the greatest acts of self harm any country could have done to itself
Except this is just pure garbage from you. Film production revenue in the UK rose by 27% in 2022. Combined film and High End TV production revenue hit a record £6.3 billion (With $5.3 billion of that being inward investment) and according to the industry news they expect to be looking to fill an additional 20 - 40,000 vacancies by 2025. The UK advertising market grew by 10% last year to reach £35 billion. And PWC expect the UK to be the European leader in Entertainment and Media in their latest industry outlook.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
18 months ago in fact. Hartlepool. He looked poltically stronger then than ever. Incredible pace of change. But I don't see Starmer imploding like that. If he slides it will be gradual and due to economic stagnation not his personal foibles.
The awe one feels for the pundit who authoritatively called Peak Johnson on the day of, actually, Peak Johnson (Hartlepool + 1), is not easily put into words.
Yep. I felt peak then too (and said so), that ridiculous Blimp, but I'm going to give you this because I think you combined with a long odds Lab majority tip whereas me I did not see The Fall coming and got stuck with a bad short, peak is one thing but the speed and scale of the descent was something else. Amazeballs really. Hat tip also to the captain - Toppers - who kept on saying through thick & thin that this man was bound to get found out, so unfit was he for Office.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
Rishi benefits by looking semi sane in a cage full of loonies. It only when you remember that he's the person who appointed these crazies that his -16 score starts to look generous
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
I expect dusillusion with Starmerism will be quick to appear, but we have to go back 50 years to get a single term government. He will be PM for a decade or more.
He could be but that's taking current trends are projecting them way into the future.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
18 months ago in fact. Hartlepool. He looked poltically stronger then than ever. Incredible pace of change. But I don't see Starmer imploding like that. If he slides it will be gradual and due to economic stagnation not his personal foibles.
What did for Johnson was his inability to learn. After the Owen Paterson fiasco he should have read the room a bit been a bit more cautious. Yet he sent his minions out onto the airwaves to lie for him over Pincher, which is ultimately what did for him. I get the sense Starmer tries to avoid mistakes like the plague but would learn from them if he did.
Yes. Like Trump. If could have somehow not been what he is he could have lasted much longer.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
It is very strange. The most awful thing would be if we shot down ET! It could just be some bod in his back garden with some helium.
My money is on back yard/high school science projects.
Oh yeah - not a chance in hell it's ET. On the other hand I definitely don't want the US government to presume that they can shoot down stuff without either it being a clear threat or it being clearly hostile and known.
The Berlin State election ended a clear success for the CDU who ended with 52 seats in the 159 seat Landtag - increased by 29 to allow for overhanding seats.
The SPD and Greens were split by just 125 votes and both won 34 seats with Linke winning 22. Alternative for Germany won 17 with the FDP wiped out having polled just 4.6%.
Kai Wegner, the CDU leader, has offered talks to both the SPD and the Greens and is claiming he should take over having got most votes and seats but politics doesn't work like that and the SPD-Green coalition is solid. Whether Linke will support them and continue the previous coalition I don't know.
Berlin may be an exception and it'll be interesting to see how the Union interacts especially with the Greens in the coming State elections - for the FDP, it's their third wipe out and this will put pressure on Christian Lindner.
Ben Wallace: "I don't know WTF this is all about, but I sure as hell know a news item that shouts 'You can get a weapons contract out of this' when I hear one. And so do my Italian pals."
Fair?
Russia is playing the role of the dog that didn't bark. Seriously. Look at the length of that coastline. If (Spartan) even two balloons got to the top of the Alaska/Yukon border from China I don't believe they both managed to get themselves puffed by winds through the Bering Strait and didn't go anywhere near Russia or cross a large amount of US territory. And remember this was after the North Carolina shootdown. What was their course?
The ballooons-are-ET story is still given credence by the Guardian tonight. This is quite remarkable in itself
If aliens managed to cross galactic distances to get here, they almost certainly have faster than light technology, making them order of magnitudes technologically superior to us.
i.e. they won't have crude floating machines that can be shot down by simple rockets.
I think you could be making a fundamental mistake by expecting them to be as warlike as us. They may well be such highly evolved innocents as to be indistinguishable from angels.
Indeed if one of these UFOs shot down has a man with wings and harp, we could be in big trouble.
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
Sunak is undoubtedly centre-right.
So you’re a comedian too.
Well, he’s not centre-left.
But Sunak isn't centre right, is he? He's standard issue Thatcherite Dry; Peter Lilley with better PR and less tendency to go into Gilbert and Sullivan rewrites.
That some see Sunak as wishy washy centre right just shows how far the Conservatives have drifted.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
It is very strange. The most awful thing would be if we shot down ET! It could just be some bod in his back garden with some helium.
My money is on back yard/high school science projects.
There have been loads of these 'edge of space' projects launched by universities, schools or even individuals over the years. (John Graham Cummings did one a few years back - (1)). They are cheap and technologically accessible. The balloons *should* go up and burst/shred, particularly if they are weather balloons. But if they don't, there's not much up there to immediately bring them down.
The pictures in the link below are amazing: from near Cambridge, the Isle of Wight and France are visible.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
It is very strange. The most awful thing would be if we shot down ET! It could just be some bod in his back garden with some helium.
My money is on back yard/high school science projects.
Oh yeah - not a chance in hell it's ET. On the other hand I definitely don't want the US government to presume that they can shoot down stuff without either it being a clear threat or it being clearly hostile and known.
What is to stop them? The court of public opinion?
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
Sunak is undoubtedly centre-right.
So you’re a comedian too.
Well, he’s not centre-left.
He’s not “centre” anything.
Sunak is a balance the books, keep spending 40%ish, no strong views on social issues moderate. You have just been driven insane by Brexit.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
It is very strange. The most awful thing would be if we shot down ET! It could just be some bod in his back garden with some helium.
My money is on back yard/high school science projects.
Oh yeah - not a chance in hell it's ET. On the other hand I definitely don't want the US government to presume that they can shoot down stuff without either it being a clear threat or it being clearly hostile and known.
What is to stop them? The court of public opinion?
Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.
Labour's answer to Sharon Stone was notably awful this morning on R4 Today.
She was horrifically poor. Is that really, really the best Labour can do? Really?
Good question. At the moment all parties have weaknesses varying from extinction level events to individuals at the top that just aren't the calibre.
Even the impregnable SNP seems to have developed a death wish. As for Labour, Angela Rayner (for whom I have a real bias in favour) has not being doing well - her job is to make sure that Labour voters vote Labour and that Tory voters who want to vote Labour aren't put off by her. And, though I am in a minority here, Rachel Reeves, as shadow CoE is just not a heavyweight.
None of this surely can stop Labour coming top; best result by far will be Labour needing LD support.
It's possible that GE2024 will be viewed as a giant by-election rather than a general election.
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
The funniest bit about that post is that you still think the Tories are “centre-right”.
Sunak is undoubtedly centre-right.
So you’re a comedian too.
Well, he’s not centre-left.
He’s not “centre” anything.
Sunak is a balance the books, keep spending 40%ish, no strong views on social issues moderate. You have just been driven insane by Brexit.
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
...so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.
The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
“so says that authoritative source the Daily Mail.“
The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
Brexit has really gone super-exclusive if Gove is no longer deemed a 'proper' Leaver.
Proper Leaverdom is very loosely correlated with reality. Remainer Truss is a Proper Leaver, passionate leaver Sunak is not.
I don't think we need such abstract concepts as personality/'connection to reality' (as defined by remainers naturally) to judge 'proper' leaverdom. Proper leavers wish us to use the flexibility afforded by Brexit for the benefit of the UK. That may involve actually repealing some EU laws, stepping away from some EU projects, tax cuts that were hitherto forbidden, institutional changes away from harmonised administration across the bloc etc. Some want all of those, some just some. A 'not-proper' leaver may speak through gritted teeth about 'the opportunities of Brexit' but will oppose any moves like those above that would make hiccoughs on the road to rejoining. That's why it is difficult to call Sunak or Gove 'proper leavers' at this time.
Comments
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (12 February):
Approve: 37% (+3)
Disapprove: 28% (–)
Net: +9% (+3)
Changes +/- 5 February
Westminster VI (12 February):
Labour 48% (-2)
Conservative 27% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Reform UK 6% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 5 February
The big problem is that the 2019 elections were a real high water mark for the Lib Dems, whereas Labour did pretty badly (though not as badly as May's conservatives). So the story could well be Labour taking ground from Lib Dem at council level in the SE and West Country, and the Tories doing much worse against Labour while shoring up support against the Lib Dems. Not great optics. People forget just how abjectly May did in those 2019 locals.
Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (12 February):
Disapprove: 44% (–)
Approve: 28% (+4)
Net: -16% (+4)
Changes +/- 5 February
Overall suggests perhaps the current VI is now carrying less anti-Tory froth and is solidifying a little.
EDIT: though I notice Sunak approval is also up in this poll contrary to most recent ones
Labour in deep trouble.
In my partial defence, after about 30 minutes I realised there was more to the story - but nonetheless my first reaction was crass. Tho quite nicely phrased
Sorry, Liverpool
X
'We need to stop this culture war politics.'
The Conservatives' desire to 'fight a culture war' was the 'final straw' for business leader Iain Anderson, who defected from the Tories to join Labour. He says the party has 'turned in on itself'.
When people like him and Rory Stuart don't feel welcome (I don't agree with their policies but I don't doubt they are decent enough people) the Tory Party is dead
So I would argue that for all their shortcomings Labour are significantly more "ready for government" than our actual government(s) of at least the last 6 years. And they still have time to become even more ready.
Liverpool are also of particular interest to me tonight. Have a 4 way acca with the 1st 3 legs in - last leg being them to win the Merseyside derby.
So although I don't normally root for them, walk on, walk on, walk o-o-on ...
“The Pentagon is yet to recover debris from the three UFOs shot down this weekend over Alaska, Canada and Michigan and is yet to offer any kind of explanation as to what they are, how they were able to fly, or whether they pose a genuine threat to America.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745005/Pentagon-recovered-debris-three-UFOs-shot-Alaska-Canada-Michigan.html
I know you could say this of all general elections, in a way, but what I mean is the electorate passing sweeping judgment in each seat on sleaze, incompetence, venality and criminality to clear out the barn, following which normal politics will resume again.
Politically, this could mean the milk rapidly turns sour for the new Labour administration followed by a rapid centre-right recovery- in whatever form that takes.
Labour are looking more worthwhile day-by-day, and that's nothing to do with Tory decline, and probably everything to do with Starmer. There's a long way to go though, and I suspect they'll get ambushed by their own highway-bandits.
I thought it would be a couple of decades to recover from GE 2015, and still do, so would be cautious with expectations for 2024 GE. Slow progress rather than large numbers of gains.
Just saying.
But some party has to supply each of the MPs for the next Parliament.
And if Starmer is the next PM, he'll be adequate. He has two years left to prepare, and his record since 2020 shows he's a fast learner. And whilst adequate may not be what we collectively want, it may be more than we collectively deserve.
Things can change so so quickly. People were talking about Boris being in office for 10-15 years barely 3 years ago.
It will take a long period of opposition to decide what that direction should be, and a good few years before they can convince the voters to accept it.
I see no sign or desire for Camooron style tack to the centre and pragmatism in either candidate or policy.
The White House however has just said "there is no evidence of aliens or extra terrestrial activity".
i.e. they won't have crude floating machines that can be shot down by simple rockets.
The one thing I can see which could possibly bring down Starmer quickly is if he misjudges the public mood on the EU and makes noises about re-joining the EU/single market before the electorate are ready. Farage is purportedly making noises about getting back into politics during the mid-term of a Labour government, so I wonder if he's thinking this might happen too.
The way things have gone recently Starmer will do well to survive as PM to face re-election.
It's also interesting to note the way in which the new-look open Pentagon seems to have, apparently, taken a bit of a different line on this from the State Department, and White House, sources from the beginning. I myself would personally wait to hear what the Pentagon itself says, or otherwise, on that.
Redfield & Wilton (so into political polling they named their firm after a parliamentary constituency - once black boy field and willy farm get renamed) found 28% Tory on 29th Jan two polls ago. Suddenly going 24 was outside the low side of what they normally find, todays poll move merely corrected the last sample - finding more Tory’s, though still less than last month, will reflect across all the measurements in the poll not just the top one. It’s not even a Labour fall in this poll, just back to where the firm normally find it before the last sample.
I would caution not to read too much into week by week poll by poll movements, instead average out a trend from pollsters over half a dozen or more polls, average of all polls over month or more not week by week - sampling is not an exact science, and how the margin of errors bounce back in the next sample, and evens out to a more confident picture of trend line with more samples is how we should follow polling trends.
The overall trend is Tories still stuck somewhere between 26 and 27. The overall picture polls paint is no change - still a smile on Labours plot line and a pair of drooping titties on Tory line. The Sunak bounce the Tory MPs bet the house on when they moved against two Primeministers has yet to happen, in fact the trend is Sunak on slide with the voters. And if you want to equate that to a news narrative, it’s probably the growing impression of sleaze Sunak is a central figure in all these years.
The Mail’s front page today shows how badly they are losing it. That arch remainers will meet in a country house and go through a PowerPoint slide pack is not a news story - that arch brexiteers like Gove joined them is a news story, but not the angle the mail is reporting on - arch remainers plot against Brexit is how they splashing it you have to read down to find the incendiary facts Gove and other leader brexiteers were there. 😆
In a Presidential election year, the Democrats will have huge difficulty retaining Senate seats in Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana, because the Republicans will carry them easily at Presidential level. Really, it will take them selecting batshit candidates for the Senate to lose (something Republicans often do, admittedly).
A big question is why they think he has suddenly learnt the lessons and fixed those flaws. I really, really doubt he has.
Interesting to see someone actually taking libel actions over social media claims of cash in brown envelopes changing hands. I have seen so many of these allegations in local politics that I'd given up on anyone actually standing up for their reputation...
As @MoonRabbit has mentioned, the previous Redfield & Wilton which showed 50-24 looked a bit of an outlier so today's poll, while superficially better for the Conservatives, may be more of a case of reverting to type and we are seeing some herding around high 40s for Labour and high 20s for the Conservatives which is still a solid 20 point advantage.
We've also had the YouGov Wales poll which shows a 12% swing from 2019 and at least that's a sample of 1,000 or so which is better than the very small sub samples we use in the main GB polls.
Looking at the R&W data tables, the 2019 Conservative vote now splits 54% Conservative, 18% Labour and 16% Don't Know. The Conservative DKs represent 46% of all Don't Knows.
Stripping out the DKs, the Conservatives lead 41-34 among the 65+ age group but that's a 20% swing from Conservative to Labour among this critical group. The Wales sub sample has Labour leading the Conservatives 38-35 (very different from the YouGov Wales poll).
For England, the VI share is Labour 51%, Conservatives 27%, LD 10%, Green 6% and Reform 5%. That would be a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Labour and 9% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat. To this observer, some stronger than expected numbers from Wales and Scotland (Conservatives 21% to Labour 28% and SNP 35%) mask a poor England set of numbers.
18.5% would mean everything up to and including Sutton Coldfield (the 259th most vulnerable Conservative seat) would fall suggesting a rump Conservative Parliamentary party of around 100-120 MPs.
https://www.pwc.co.uk/industries/technology-media-and-telecommunications/insights/entertainment-media-outlook.html
The SPD and Greens were split by just 125 votes and both won 34 seats with Linke winning 22. Alternative for Germany won 17 with the FDP wiped out having polled just 4.6%.
Kai Wegner, the CDU leader, has offered talks to both the SPD and the Greens and is claiming he should take over having got most votes and seats but politics doesn't work like that and the SPD-Green coalition is solid. Whether Linke will support them and continue the previous coalition I don't know.
Berlin may be an exception and it'll be interesting to see how the Union interacts especially with the Greens in the coming State elections - for the FDP, it's their third wipe out and this will put pressure on Christian Lindner.
Fair?
Russia is playing the role of the dog that didn't bark. Seriously. Look at the length of that coastline. If (Spartan) even two balloons got to the top of the Alaska/Yukon border from China I don't believe they both managed to get themselves puffed by winds through the Bering Strait and didn't go anywhere near Russia or cross a large amount of US territory. And remember this was after the North Carolina shootdown. What was their course?
Indeed if one of these UFOs shot down has a man with wings and harp, we could be in big trouble.
That some see Sunak as wishy washy centre right just shows how far the Conservatives have drifted.
The pictures in the link below are amazing: from near Cambridge, the Isle of Wight and France are visible.
(1): https://blog.jgc.org/2011/04/gaga-1-flight.html
By road.
What do they know?
Nuke incoming on Lviv is my guess.