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LDs very close to taking Wokingham in new constituency poll – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2023 in General
LDs very close to taking Wokingham in new constituency poll – politicalbetting.com

Wokingham, constituency voting intention:CON: 42% (-15)LDEM: 38% (+22)LAB: 12% (-13)BREX: 5% (+5)GRN: 3% (+1)via @Survation, 01 – 04 NovChgs. w/ GE2017 result

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited February 2023
    First.

    Like an unknown party in Wokingham.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    Second like John Redwood
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    John Redwood being an unusual person who can count to two.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,081
    This is precisely where there is an opportunity for the Tories to surprise on the downside (and for the LDs to scrape a respectable number of MPs from their current doldrums).

    However, it will require some (perhaps uncharacteristically) mature campaigning.

    They need to avoid talk of "decapitation", or otherwise personalising it around "big names" (like Redwood). They need to avoid putting Labour voters off holding their nose and voting tactically (which means not patronising them). They will only win these seats *if* some greater proportion of those Tories stay home (and Labour voters stay on side).
  • Winchester and Guildford also Lib Dem gains, the culture wars do not play here from the fuck business party
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    On topic, the folk of Wokingham do seem oddly addicted to the Redwood snake oil (for me he is one of the biggest bluffers in the game; his brazen endurance is quite astonishing). I guess he embodies a kind of bone-dry anti-progressive Tebbit Toryism; Wokinghamites are, I imagine, drifting mainstream at least on social stuff.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,054
    'In 2018 Berkeley launched a “cluster search” for five faculty to teach biological sciences. From 894 applications, it created a longlist based on diversity statements alone, eliminating 680 candidates without examining their research or other credentials.'

    https://archive.md/A6980 (The Economist)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    carnforth said:

    'In 2018 Berkeley launched a “cluster search” for five faculty to teach biological sciences. From 894 applications, it created a longlist based on diversity statements alone, eliminating 680 candidates without examining their research or other credentials.'

    https://archive.md/A6980 (The Economist)

    In fairness, is this not part of the Berkeley brand? Also that still leaves a longlist of 214. And do we know what the content of the statements were? Teaching is not about credentials alone, and if Berkeley are looking to increase access to and uptake of biological sciences from underrepresented groups, then have teachers who are thoughtful about this probably helps, no?

    This sort of stuff reminds of that classic Mr Burns quote, "Well, for once the rich white man is in control!"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Looks like whether the LDs can take Wokingham and beat Redwood depends on how far they can squeeze the Labour vote.

    However given Wokingham was 57% Remain and is 18th on the LD target list it was already going to be vulnerable in 2024
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2023

    Winchester and Guildford also Lib Dem gains, the culture wars do not play here from the fuck business party

    The Tories of course lost Winchester in 1997 and Guildford in 2001 to the LDs even before Brexit
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Endillion said:

    I see all the "pro-trans" posters who confidently assured us all that Scotland's proposed self-ID legislation couldn't possibly be abused by non-trans opportunists, have shrugged off their defeat and are continuing to be confidently wrong about the wider issue in new and interesting ways.

    I don't think people are evaluating the risks. Yes the Gender Identification Reform Bill increases a risk of identified trans women sexually attacking women. The original risk is real, but minute; the increase to that risk caused by GIRB is also minute.

    There are few identified trans women anyway; per experience of other countries, the process change for identification won't increase that number massively. Trans women overwhelmingly don't sexually abuse other women. We are talking about risks introduced by GIRB in the order of 1 in million, maybe much less. Meanwhile men sexually attacking women; men attacking men and women attacking women are massively bigger issues.
    Ah, yes, the old "we can only deal with one problem at a time" fallacy.
    Ah, yes, the old "straw man" fallacy.
    I mean, that's literally what you and at least one other in this thread are saying.
    That literally wasn't what I was saying. I am saying the risk is extremely low but people don't assess it. I don't see it as a "problem to be dealt with" but as a risk/benefit decision where trans people, who are overwhelmingly kind people and NOT rapists, might get a less humiliating process for identification against a very small risk to the population at large.
    If it's not what you were saying, why descend to whataboutery?
    Question for you, not me. Sorry.
    You don't understand that "Meanwhile [x, y and z] are massively bigger issues" is classic whataboutery?
    You are more likely to be killed by lightening than sexually attacked by a trans women isn't whataboutery either. It's a comparison.
    The law doesn't just apply to trans women, it applies to all men who choose to self-identify since there is no safeguarding.

    What part of that are you struggling to comprehend? 🤦‍♂️
    I understand, and have said upthread, that the GIRB does introduce an additional risk. Based on experience in other countries that introduced similar legislation, and on experts in this field, it doesn't look to be a big delta on what is already a low risk. Not least because the legislation is unlikely to lead to a big increase in identifying trans women of any kind, let alone sexual predators.

    I would always minimise risk if it can be done at low cost.
    Which other countries have done self identification without any safeguarding?

    Safeguarding ought to be low cost, but it is being spurned here.

    Finally is not reasonable for women to believe they're already subjected to too much risk and additional risk, which you acknowledge, at their expense is unjustifiable?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited February 2023
    I’m not sure Angela thought this through:

    Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/feb/13/conservatives-tories-rishi-sunak-expenses-spending-angela-rayner-labour-uk-politics-live

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243
    Ghedebrav said:

    carnforth said:

    'In 2018 Berkeley launched a “cluster search” for five faculty to teach biological sciences. From 894 applications, it created a longlist based on diversity statements alone, eliminating 680 candidates without examining their research or other credentials.'

    https://archive.md/A6980 (The Economist)

    In fairness, is this not part of the Berkeley brand? Also that still leaves a longlist of 214. And do we know what the content of the statements were? Teaching is not about credentials alone, and if Berkeley are looking to increase access to and uptake of biological sciences from underrepresented groups, then have teachers who are thoughtful about this probably helps, no?

    This sort of stuff reminds of that classic Mr Burns quote, "Well, for once the rich white man is in control!"
    Yep, I can't get too excited about this. 894 applications for 5 positions is going to require some kind of fairly arbitrary culling. Is a written statement (relevant, probably, to teaching) any worse way than e.g. number of papers or citations (both of no real relevance to teaching and only a very crude measure of research quality/output*).

    *My most cited paper really belongs in the Journal of No Shit Sherlock results - it's well cited because it's handy citation to justify doing something a certain way in a lab which everyone knew was the right way to do it but no one had previously published on what quantifiable impact it had. It's almost a quarter of my total citations across all my papers and double the next most cited, so something like that can really skew those numbers.
  • Is the date on that tweet right?

    I'm seeing November 2019.

    And in December 2019, Lib Dems did get 38 %, but BXP didn't stand and Redwood appears to have hoovered up their vote, ending on 50 %.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,081
    edited February 2023
    I'm maybe more interested in seats like Romsey and Southampton North. It's been Conservative since its creation in 2010. A sitting MP who is largely perceived as dreadful, got the whip suspended for her anti-Brexit stance (in a remain-y seat), but there is a 10-15% swing required and not much Labour vote to squeeze. It's 32nd on the LD list.

    These feel like the kinds of seats that are going to cap out the LD potential at the next GE.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,603

    It sure Angela thought this through:

    Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/feb/13/conservatives-tories-rishi-sunak-expenses-spending-angela-rayner-labour-uk-politics-live

    I recall when iPods were released and the same again with iPads - there was solemn intoning of the danger of a digital divide. A number of councils and similar needed to give all their members said iPods and iPads.
  • On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,142
    I've just noticed the changes are vs the 2017 election result, which is odd. Hence the very large increase for LD and reduction for Labour. I sniff some Lib Dem bar chartishness...

    The more obvious comparison would be 2019 which was:

    Con: 49.6
    LD: 37.7
    Lab: 10.4
    Grn: 2.2

    Which means the movements in this latest poll are Con -7.6, LD +0.3, Lab +1.6, Ref +5.5 and Grn +0.8C.

    Less of a Lib Dem surge and more of a Tory slump at the expense of BXP. Not quite so hopeful as it first looked.
  • Interesting thread on the corporation tax changes:

    After a dizzying series of changes of mind, UK corporation tax is now going up to 25% from April. It's a bad idea which I unenthusiastically support.

    https://twitter.com/DanNeidle/status/1624839739164573705
  • On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Doesn't the 1997 experience point the other way? If lefties really want to kick the Tories, they use their votes efficiently. If not they scatter their votes to please themselves.
  • It sure Angela thought this through:

    Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/feb/13/conservatives-tories-rishi-sunak-expenses-spending-angela-rayner-labour-uk-politics-live

    I recall when iPods were released and the same again with iPads - there was solemn intoning of the danger of a digital divide. A number of councils and similar needed to give all their members said iPods and iPads.
    They’ve made a rod for their own back.

    Every time a Labour minister stays in a 5* hotel (often organised by the host) they’ll have this thrown back at them.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    This was mentioned in passing last week.

    There is a global trade war brewing between the US, the EU and China.

    And we are on the outside with our noses pressed against the window while decisions are made that will affect our future.

    If only someone had predicted this outcome.

    Oh, wait...
    We did. Thank goodness we are outside of the trade war able to make our own choices rather than being dragged into trade wars against our will via QMV.

    You're making a fantastic pro Brexit argument there Scott. 👏
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited February 2023

    Is the date on that tweet right?

    I'm seeing November 2019.

    And in December 2019, Lib Dems did get 38 %, but BXP didn't stand and Redwood appears to have hoovered up their vote, ending on 50 %.

    The poll seemed reasonably accurate - only a couple of points too low for the Tory/Brexit vote and too high for the Labour/Lib Dem vote.

    You'd assume that the Tory vote would fall compared to 2019, but will the anti-Tory vote stay united behind the Lib Dems? Any boundary changes to confuse tactical voting?
  • The idea buying some AirPods for work is in anyway comparable to the Tories and their continued sleaze is laughable
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995

    It sure Angela thought this through:

    Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/feb/13/conservatives-tories-rishi-sunak-expenses-spending-angela-rayner-labour-uk-politics-live

    I recall when iPods were released and the same again with iPads - there was solemn intoning of the danger of a digital divide. A number of councils and similar needed to give all their members said iPods and iPads.
    They’ve made a rod for their own back.

    Every time a Labour minister stays in a 5* hotel (often organised by the host) they’ll have this thrown back at them.
    Agreed, this was a silly line of attack. Although coherent with a broader theme of 'hypocritical Tories stuffing their pockets while the nation tightens its belt', it opens up a world of expenses nonsense which just undermines faith in politics in general.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Doesn't the 1997 experience point the other way? If lefties really want to kick the Tories, they use their votes efficiently. If not they scatter their votes to please themselves.
    Many Labour voters in Tory seats still haven't forgiven the LDs for the austerity they imposed in government with the Tories, so will stick with Labour even if the LDs were second last time
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    carnforth said:

    'In 2018 Berkeley launched a “cluster search” for five faculty to teach biological sciences. From 894 applications, it created a longlist based on diversity statements alone, eliminating 680 candidates without examining their research or other credentials.'

    https://archive.md/A6980 (The Economist)

    In fairness, is this not part of the Berkeley brand? Also that still leaves a longlist of 214. And do we know what the content of the statements were? Teaching is not about credentials alone, and if Berkeley are looking to increase access to and uptake of biological sciences from underrepresented groups, then have teachers who are thoughtful about this probably helps, no?

    This sort of stuff reminds of that classic Mr Burns quote, "Well, for once the rich white man is in control!"
    Yep, I can't get too excited about this. 894 applications for 5 positions is going to require some kind of fairly arbitrary culling. Is a written statement (relevant, probably, to teaching) any worse way than e.g. number of papers or citations (both of no real relevance to teaching and only a very crude measure of research quality/output*).

    *My most cited paper really belongs in the Journal of No Shit Sherlock results - it's well cited because it's handy citation to justify doing something a certain way in a lab which everyone knew was the right way to do it but no one had previously published on what quantifiable impact it had. It's almost a quarter of my total citations across all my papers and double the next most cited, so something like that can really skew those numbers.
    Anyone who has ever run a recruitment with a decent level of competition will understand, it's not just in HE/academia.

    Finding people who are sympathetic to/aligned with your organisation's vision seems as good a way as any as whittling down a manageable longlist.
  • On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Doesn't the 1997 experience point the other way? If lefties really want to kick the Tories, they use their votes efficiently. If not they scatter their votes to please themselves.
    I’m not sure we’re quite at 1997 yet.

    The Tories aren’t yet in as big a mess as the post-black Monday crew got themselves into - although it’s certainly possible they get there and then some.

    Starmer is no Blair - who was viewed with genuine enthusiasm as a “breath of fresh air”. Starmer’s main attraction is “he’s not the other one”. The absence of a negative isn’t as motivating as the presence of a positive.

    I think we’re heading for Labour clearly largest party, possibly shy of a majority. If SLAB can focus on the NHS/economy then they can attack both SNP and the Tories - and continue their silence on the GRR bill, then they might get enough seats to gain a majority.

    How the Tories do will depend on how they behave between now and then. “Steady as she goes” should see them thumped but surviving. Leadership coups will get them the little they will deserve.
  • FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    It's a 2019 poll, 4 Nov.
  • HYUFD said:

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Doesn't the 1997 experience point the other way? If lefties really want to kick the Tories, they use their votes efficiently. If not they scatter their votes to please themselves.
    Many Labour voters in Tory seats still haven't forgiven the LDs for the austerity they imposed in government with the Tories, so will stick with Labour even if the LDs were second last time
    I'm sure you're right for some Labour voters, but the evidence from by elections seems to be that enough voters a) really want to kick the Conservatives and b) are willing and able to to the Lib Lab pincer thing.

    I don't know if that works in Wokingham- at least some of the Lib gains there last time look like "can't stand Corbyn", and they may drift back.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Doesn't the 1997 experience point the other way? If lefties really want to kick the Tories, they use their votes efficiently. If not they scatter their votes to please themselves.
    Many Labour voters in Tory seats still haven't forgiven the LDs for the austerity they imposed in government with the Tories, so will stick with Labour even if the LDs were second last time
    Depends if Lab supporters want to punish the LibDems for 2010-15 or get rid of a Tory and help the national Labour majority by voting tactically LibDem.

    I'm sure the LIbDems will be making this point in countless direct mail squeeze letters.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Very close but not quite could be a good summary of the LD position sometimes, outside great by-elections.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited February 2023
    Fpt

    Poll: 56% of Scots would vote No and 44% would vote Yes if an independence referendum was held tomorrow.
    https://twitter.com/holyrooddaily/status/1625042339638153218

    Before anyone gets too giddy, thats a poll with a sudden drop in people saying Yes, and a fat 25% of don't knows. A chunk of whom would revert back to yes if it was actually put to a vote.

    This is how the SNP do so well. Crowing people who detest their very existence overreact to events and pronounce "they are finished". They are not. Sadly.
    Quite likely. Nice to at least see some positive scores though, even if it is meant to be a protest by Yes backers annoyed by recent events.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,603

    The idea buying some AirPods for work is in anyway comparable to the Tories and their continued sleaze is laughable

    Which is why the hotels stuff is bizarre.

    It’s almost as if the Labour spin doctors are trying to blur the story about Conservative sleeze out. Why?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    Barnesian said:

    It's a 2019 poll, 4 Nov.

    Also what about this one from September 2021? Con 42, LD 22, Lab 24, Green 8

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,224
    edited February 2023

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Depends on the constituency, Carlotta.

    Here in sunny Tewkesbury the LDs are coming from so far back the considerations you mention may well apply. I'm unsure how I would vote myself.

    Down the road in Cheltenham however it's a different gether altothing. If the LDs don't win there, they've had a very bad night.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    The hit to business investment as a result of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has cost the UK economy about £29 billion, according to a Bank of England rate-setter.

    Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, said that the “productivity penalty” resulting from Brexit equated to about £1,000 per household, or 1.3 per cent of gross domestic product.

    He told the website The Overshoot that 2016, the year in which Britain voted to leave, was a turning point for UK productivity compared with other big economies. “We suffered much more,” Haskel, a professor of economics at Imperial College London and a member of the committee since September 2018, said. “I think it really goes back to Brexit.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-has-cost-uk-economy-29bn-in-lost-investment-mk2wf7d5j

    FPT, I see Michael Gove is the latest scapegoat for the failure of Brexit to be any fucking use at all.

    The revolution devours its young...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    Labour and the LDs could banish the Conservatives to history with an electoral agreement.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    This is simply not correct.

    Taiwan's electronics supply chains have been forced to diversify because of restrictions on trading with Huawei and others.

    Singapore's electronics supply chains are being affected by restrictions on trading with China.

    South Korea relies on Russia for gas - and hasn't followed other countries in ending imports. They have concerns about Russia deepening economic ties with the North.

    All collateral damage from deepening great power competition.

    This has been a blind spot of yours predating the referendum.

    An honest appraisal would accept downsides - as well as opportunities from Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The idea buying some AirPods for work is in anyway comparable to the Tories and their continued sleaze is laughable

    It's not, but purchasing unnecessarily expensive ones is a needless distraction if labour want to argue about over expensive hotels or wine and the like.

    It's the sort of easy rebuttal that they shouldn't be open to, which is one reason some of the petty accusations are as others have noted a tactical mistake.

    The hope is general profligacy gets associated with the much more serious corrupt stuff, but the danger is the more serious stuff gets lost in arguments over hotels or airpods.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Labour and the LDs could banish the Conservatives to history with an electoral agreement.

    Or it could backfire massively.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2023

    Labour and the LDs could banish the Conservatives to history with an electoral agreement.

    No they couldn't, some Orange Book LDs would go Tory and some Corbynites in Labour would go Green or start their own party if a formal Labour and LD pact. UKIP got 12% in 2015 when the Tories did a deal with the LDs and leftwing LDs went Labour
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    HYUFD said:

    Labour and the LDs could banish the Conservatives to history with an electoral agreement.

    No they couldn't, some Orange Book LDs would go Tory and some Corbynites in Labour would go Green or start their own party if a formal Labour and LD pact. UKIP got 12% in 2015 when the Tories did a deal with the LDs and leftwing LDs went Labour
    Who mentioned 'formal'?
  • Barnesian said:

    It's a 2019 poll, 4 Nov.

    Also what about this one from September 2021? Con 42, LD 22, Lab 24, Green 8

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling
    Though in September 2021, the Conservatives were still around 40 percent nationwide. There's been a fair old swing since then.

    (If Wokingham has changed from a place where the Conservatives massively overachieve compared with national share to one where they roughly track it, that's interesting in itself. Probably helps their efficiency in good years, but dangerous in bad ones.)
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    HYUFD said:

    Labour and the LDs could banish the Conservatives to history with an electoral agreement.

    No they couldn't, some Orange Book LDs would go Tory and some Corbynites in Labour would go Green or start their own party if a formal Labour and LD pact. UKIP got 12% in 2015 when the Tories did a deal with the LDs and leftwing LDs went Labour
    Who mentioned 'formal'?
    It's politics. An informal agreement isn't an agreement.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,154
    edited February 2023
    Keystone said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    This is simply not correct.

    Taiwan's electronics supply chains have been forced to diversify because of restrictions on trading with Huawei and others.

    Singapore's electronics supply chains are being affected by restrictions on trading with China.

    South Korea relies on Russia for gas - and hasn't followed other countries in ending imports. They have concerns about Russia deepening economic ties with the North.

    All collateral damage from deepening great power competition.

    This has been a blind spot of yours predating the referendum.

    An honest appraisal would accept downsides - as well as opportunities from Brexit.
    Eh?

    Predating the regerendum I was pro-Remain, switching to undecided during the campaign and only plumping for Leave in the final few weeks.

    Precisely because I've always seen both pros and cons.

    Yes SK etc may have had negative impacts due to the trade wars happening but find me any of those countries eager to subsume themselves into China in order to evade those costs? Or find any where Chinese GDP per capita is better than theirs? All of those countries are better off outside of China, just as we should be better off outside of the EU.

    I have always thought there will be costs for Brexit and there'll be a likely hockey stick effect as the costs for divergence will be more upfront while the benefits will accrue over time.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited February 2023
    I am fascinated by the UFO news. I have to admit I’m not quite convinced that aliens are involved in making octagonal objects with bits of string attached, but the query around propulsion of these objects is absolutely fascinating. It suggests there is military tech out there which is far beyond what we were aware of in terms of advancement, even allowing for a bit of “state secrecy” wriggle room.
  • timpletimple Posts: 117
    TimS said:

    I've just noticed the changes are vs the 2017 election result, which is odd. Hence the very large increase for LD and reduction for Labour. I sniff some Lib Dem bar chartishness...

    The more obvious comparison would be 2019 which was:

    Con: 49.6
    LD: 37.7
    Lab: 10.4
    Grn: 2.2

    Which means the movements in this latest poll are Con -7.6, LD +0.3, Lab +1.6, Ref +5.5 and Grn +0.8C.

    Less of a Lib Dem surge and more of a Tory slump at the expense of BXP. Not quite so hopeful as it first looked.

    Its an old tweet from 2019 before the GE. Would be interesting to know the 2023 data.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Doesn't the 1997 experience point the other way? If lefties really want to kick the Tories, they use their votes efficiently. If not they scatter their votes to please themselves.
    Many Labour voters in Tory seats still haven't forgiven the LDs for the austerity they imposed in government with the Tories, so will stick with Labour even if the LDs were second last time
    Depends if Lab supporters want to punish the LibDems for 2010-15 or get rid of a Tory and help the national Labour majority by voting tactically LibDem.

    I'm sure the LIbDems will be making this point in countless direct mail squeeze letters.

    Perhaps with an endorsement from a certain betting aficionado.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263

    Keystone said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    This is simply not correct.

    Taiwan's electronics supply chains have been forced to diversify because of restrictions on trading with Huawei and others.

    Singapore's electronics supply chains are being affected by restrictions on trading with China.

    South Korea relies on Russia for gas - and hasn't followed other countries in ending imports. They have concerns about Russia deepening economic ties with the North.

    All collateral damage from deepening great power competition.

    This has been a blind spot of yours predating the referendum.

    An honest appraisal would accept downsides - as well as opportunities from Brexit.
    Eh?

    Predating the regerendum I was pro-Remain, switching to undecided during the campaign and only plumping for Leave in the final few weeks.

    Precisely because I've always seen both pros and cons.

    Yes SK etc may have had negative impacts due to the trade wars happening but find me any of those countries eager to subsume themselves into China in order to evade those costs? Or find any where Chinese GDP per capita is better than theirs? All of those countries are better off outside of China, just as we should be better off outside of the EU.

    I have always thought there will be costs for Brexit and there'll be a likely hockey stick effect as the costs for divergence will be more upfront while the benefits will accrue over time.
    Unfortunately, the hockey stick handle is on the left.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,142
    timple said:

    TimS said:

    I've just noticed the changes are vs the 2017 election result, which is odd. Hence the very large increase for LD and reduction for Labour. I sniff some Lib Dem bar chartishness...

    The more obvious comparison would be 2019 which was:

    Con: 49.6
    LD: 37.7
    Lab: 10.4
    Grn: 2.2

    Which means the movements in this latest poll are Con -7.6, LD +0.3, Lab +1.6, Ref +5.5 and Grn +0.8C.

    Less of a Lib Dem surge and more of a Tory slump at the expense of BXP. Not quite so hopeful as it first looked.

    Its an old tweet from 2019 before the GE. Would be interesting to know the 2023 data.
    How bizarre. Time for some more up to date ones.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited February 2023

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Depends on the constituency, Carlotta.

    Here in sunny Tewkesbury the LDs are coming from so far back the considerations you mention may well apply. I'm unsure how I would vote myself.

    Down the road in Cheltenham however it's a different gether altothing. If the LDs don't win there, they've had a very bad night.
    And if you look at 1997 that disproves Carlotta's contention in any case.

    Historically the third party has always had its best results when a Conservative government is unpopular, because many Conservative voters have always been resistant to voting Labour even when thoroughly disillusioned with 'their own side', whereas the other way around whilst Labour may have had a historically strong tribal vote, once a voter is ready to break with the tribe they are mostly quite willing to jump to the Tories without stopping to vote for a centre party - cf. the former red wall.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Keystone said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    This is simply not correct.

    Taiwan's electronics supply chains have been forced to diversify because of restrictions on trading with Huawei and others.

    Singapore's electronics supply chains are being affected by restrictions on trading with China.

    South Korea relies on Russia for gas - and hasn't followed other countries in ending imports. They have concerns about Russia deepening economic ties with the North.

    All collateral damage from deepening great power competition.

    This has been a blind spot of yours predating the referendum.

    An honest appraisal would accept downsides - as well as opportunities from Brexit.
    Eh?

    Predating the regerendum I was pro-Remain, switching to undecided during the campaign and only plumping for Leave in the final few weeks.

    Precisely because I've always seen both pros and cons.

    Yes SK etc may have had negative impacts due to the trade wars happening but find me any of those countries eager to subsume themselves into China in order to evade those costs? Or find any where Chinese GDP per capita is better than theirs? All of those countries are better off outside of China, just as we should be better off outside of the EU.

    I have always thought there will be costs for Brexit and there'll be a likely hockey stick effect as the costs for divergence will be more upfront while the benefits will accrue over time.
    Like communism, I suspect Brexit will always be sacrifice now with the supposed sunny uplands always away over the next hill.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,571
    edited February 2023
    OT. Why is the comparison being given with 2017 and not 2019?

    At the 2019 GE the party shares in Wokingham were Con 49.6%, LD 37.7%, Lab 10.4%.

    So the change in shares is Con -8%, LD 0%, Lab +2%, Brexit/Reform + 5%, Green +1%.

    What's surprising about this poll is that the LDs are still 4% behind, given where they are starting from and the scale of the national collapse in the Conservative vote.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    edited February 2023

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    "Well run" is very definitely an example of begging the question. But nice try slipping it in there.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    .

    OT. Why is the comparison being given with 2017 and not 2019?

    At the 2019 GE the party shares in Wokingham were Con 49.6%, LD 37.7%, Lab 10.4%.

    So the change in shares is Con -8%, LD 0%, Lab +2%, Brexit/Reform + 5%, Green +1%.

    What's surprising about this poll is that the LDs are still 4% behind, given where are starting from and the scale of the national collapse in the Conservative vote.

    Because the tweet is from before the 2019 GE...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    The idea that not being part of a larger bloc in a war is a 'good thing' is perhaps the dumbest post today, which includes Leon posting drunk for an hour
  • DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174

    HYUFD said:

    Labour and the LDs could banish the Conservatives to history with an electoral agreement.

    No they couldn't, some Orange Book LDs would go Tory and some Corbynites in Labour would go Green or start their own party if a formal Labour and LD pact. UKIP got 12% in 2015 when the Tories did a deal with the LDs and leftwing LDs went Labour
    Who mentioned 'formal'?
    Surely you did. How can an electoral agreement not be formal? How would it be decided which party should run in which constituencies?
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127

    Keystone said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    This is simply not correct.

    Taiwan's electronics supply chains have been forced to diversify because of restrictions on trading with Huawei and others.

    Singapore's electronics supply chains are being affected by restrictions on trading with China.

    South Korea relies on Russia for gas - and hasn't followed other countries in ending imports. They have concerns about Russia deepening economic ties with the North.

    All collateral damage from deepening great power competition.

    This has been a blind spot of yours predating the referendum.

    An honest appraisal would accept downsides - as well as opportunities from Brexit.
    Eh?

    Predating the regerendum I was pro-Remain, switching to undecided during the campaign and only plumping for Leave in the final few weeks.

    Precisely because I've always seen both pros and cons.

    Yes SK etc may have had negative impacts due to the trade wars happening but find me any of those countries eager to subsume themselves into China in order to evade those costs? Or find any where Chinese GDP per capita is better than theirs? All of those countries are better off outside of China, just as we should be better off outside of the EU.

    I have always thought there will be costs for Brexit and there'll be a likely hockey stick effect as the costs for divergence will be more upfront while the benefits will accrue over time.
    I don't want to be unduly confrontational. That was not my perception around the referendum - but it's all water under the bridge.

    If our national objectives are a free and open international trading system, as are Singapore's, the emergence of a fragmented trading system divided into competing blocs is a negative development.

    The EU is becoming increasingly protectionist. Using the green economy rules as a figleaf.

    Biden is now doing the same under the IRA programme.

    Where that leaves us is a long enough topic for a blog post. Waiting for the Hockey Stick upturn is the politest version I can write.

    Certainly SK and Taiwan are monitoring China's determined development of national industries (on an import substitution model) with interest.

    We can also expect the EU market to gradually move away from us. Will fisheries offset that? I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,760

    OT. Why is the comparison being given with 2017 and not 2019?

    At the 2019 GE the party shares in Wokingham were Con 49.6%, LD 37.7%, Lab 10.4%.

    So the change in shares is Con -8%, LD 0%, Lab +2%, Brexit/Reform + 5%, Green +1%.

    What's surprising about this poll is that the LDs are still 4% behind, given where they are starting from and the scale of the national collapse in the Conservative vote.

    Compared to 2019, that seems like a pretty good poll for the Conservatives.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Depends on the constituency, Carlotta.

    Here in sunny Tewkesbury the LDs are coming from so far back the considerations you mention may well apply. I'm unsure how I would vote myself.

    Down the road in Cheltenham however it's a different gether altothing. If the LDs don't win there, they've had a very bad night.
    And if you look at 1997 that disproves Carlotta's contention in any case.

    Historically the third party has always had its best results when a Conservative government is unpopular, because many Conservative voters have always been resistant to voting Labour even when thoroughly disillusioned with 'their own side', whereas the other way around whilst Labour may have had a historically strong tribal vote, once a voter is ready to break with the tribe they are mostly quite willing to jump to the Tories without stopping to vote for a centre party - cf. the former red wall.
    Take your point, Ian, but should point out there are some very solid Labour enclaves in Tewkesbury constituency, secreted within the general white/retired/comfortable Tory client vote. LDs don't generally cut it amongst those Labour voters.
  • IanB2 said:

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Depends on the constituency, Carlotta.

    Here in sunny Tewkesbury the LDs are coming from so far back the considerations you mention may well apply. I'm unsure how I would vote myself.

    Down the road in Cheltenham however it's a different gether altothing. If the LDs don't win there, they've had a very bad night.
    And if you look at 1997 that disproves Carlotta's contention in any case.

    Historically the third party has always had its best results when a Conservative government is unpopular, because many Conservative voters have always been resistant to voting Labour even when thoroughly disillusioned with 'their own side', whereas the other way around whilst Labour may have had a historically strong tribal vote, once a voter is ready to break with the tribe they are mostly quite willing to jump to the Tories without stopping to vote for a centre party - cf. the former red wall.
    What historical evidence is there for that besides 1997? Be careful of letting history be a single instance.

    Actually if you look further back, the third party did very well in 1983 (where they doubled their seats) while the Tories were scoring a landslide and Labour were doing very badly. The last time before that they did well was February 1974 when both major parties fell backwards by a combined 13.4% of the national vote share. While their worst result was of course 2015 when both major parties gained vote share.

    There's no discernible pattern it seems to me to be a case of this party doing well is good news for the third party, rather it seems to be a case of the third party can do well when a party suffers, whether it be Tories (1997) or Labour (1983) or both (1974).
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    The idea buying some AirPods for work is in anyway comparable to the Tories and their continued sleaze is laughable

    If you recall the expenses scandal, which was tipped on here just before the Telegraph published, it was relatively low-cost and trivial expenses that caused some of the greatest anger. Staying in a fancy hotel when you are doing a job is one thing, put any perception of treating yourself at public expense gets people's blood pressure right up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Scott_xP said:

    The idea that not being part of a larger bloc in a war is a 'good thing' is perhaps the dumbest post today, which includes Leon posting drunk for an hour

    Would Switzerland have been better off joining the central powers?
  • Keystone said:

    Keystone said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    This is simply not correct.

    Taiwan's electronics supply chains have been forced to diversify because of restrictions on trading with Huawei and others.

    Singapore's electronics supply chains are being affected by restrictions on trading with China.

    South Korea relies on Russia for gas - and hasn't followed other countries in ending imports. They have concerns about Russia deepening economic ties with the North.

    All collateral damage from deepening great power competition.

    This has been a blind spot of yours predating the referendum.

    An honest appraisal would accept downsides - as well as opportunities from Brexit.
    Eh?

    Predating the regerendum I was pro-Remain, switching to undecided during the campaign and only plumping for Leave in the final few weeks.

    Precisely because I've always seen both pros and cons.

    Yes SK etc may have had negative impacts due to the trade wars happening but find me any of those countries eager to subsume themselves into China in order to evade those costs? Or find any where Chinese GDP per capita is better than theirs? All of those countries are better off outside of China, just as we should be better off outside of the EU.

    I have always thought there will be costs for Brexit and there'll be a likely hockey stick effect as the costs for divergence will be more upfront while the benefits will accrue over time.
    I don't want to be unduly confrontational. That was not my perception around the referendum - but it's all water under the bridge.

    If our national objectives are a free and open international trading system, as are Singapore's, the emergence of a fragmented trading system divided into competing blocs is a negative development.

    The EU is becoming increasingly protectionist. Using the green economy rules as a figleaf.

    Biden is now doing the same under the IRA programme.

    Where that leaves us is a long enough topic for a blog post. Waiting for the Hockey Stick upturn is the politest version I can write.

    Certainly SK and Taiwan are monitoring China's determined development of national industries (on an import substitution model) with interest.

    We can also expect the EU market to gradually move away from us. Will fisheries offset that? I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

    I don't expect fisheries to offset that and suggesting that shows either ignorance or willful misrepresentation of the alternative viewpoint.

    I expect self-determination to offset that. More than offset that.

    Yes SK, Taiwan, Singapore etc are monitoring China with interest, as they should, but they're not seeking to become provinces within China, are they?

    We too ought to monitory the EU with interest, and China and the USA and the rest of the globe too for what its worth, but without seeking to be a province within Europe.

    I wholeheartedly agree t hat over time the EU will move away from us, and us from them, but what we gain from self-determination ought to more than offset that. And if it doesn't, its because we're not running ourselves well, and we have democratic control over that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    I am fascinated by the UFO news. I have to admit I’m not quite convinced that aliens are involved in making octagonal objects with bits of string attached, but the query around propulsion of these objects is absolutely fascinating. It suggests there is military tech out there which is far beyond what we were aware of in terms of advancement, even allowing for a bit of “state secrecy” wriggle room.

    Where is the debris? It cannot be hard to find. Odd
  • The comments on the Herald report of Lord Ashcroft’s poll….

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23317776.poll-big-lead-no-gulf-public-snp-priorities/
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    I grew up in Wokingham. My parents still live there. Wokingham is a dead cert LD gain. Redwood is not popular locally. Plenty of people like my mother who held their nose to vote Tory in 2019 to avoid the risk of Corbyn. Starmer isn't such a risk and so this time they will I'm sure vote LD.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728

    Scott_xP said:

    The idea that not being part of a larger bloc in a war is a 'good thing' is perhaps the dumbest post today, which includes Leon posting drunk for an hour

    Would Switzerland have been better off joining the central powers?
    Was Switzerland under attack?
  • Scott_xP said:

    The idea that not being part of a larger bloc in a war is a 'good thing' is perhaps the dumbest post today, which includes Leon posting drunk for an hour

    Yeah I'm sure Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea etc are just begging to be let into China right now aren't they? 🤦‍♂️
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    “The US Air Force general overseeing North American airspace said Sunday he was not ruling out aliens after a string of shoot-downs of unidentified objects.

    Asked whether he had ruled out an extraterrestrial origin for three floating objects shot down by warplanes in as many days, Gen. Glen VanHerck said: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out.

    “I haven’t ruled out anything.””

    https://nypost.com/2023/02/13/top-general-not-ruling-out-aliens-after-3-ufos-shot-down/
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
  • HYUFD said:

    Winchester and Guildford also Lib Dem gains, the culture wars do not play here from the fuck business party

    The Tories of course lost Winchester in 1997 and Guildford in 2001 to the LDs even before Brexit
    Yes but Cameron held these seats. You seem intent to say goodbye to your lifelong voters.
  • glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    'Picking winners' and giving them taxpayers money is generally a terrible idea.

    Creating the right tax incentives and having the right immigration etc policies seeking to attract the best and brightest from the entire planet regardless of their nationality is eminently sensible.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,081
    edited February 2023
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    There's a legitimate strategic interest in not depending on South East Asia for all your semiconductor requirements, though.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The idea that not being part of a larger bloc in a war is a 'good thing' is perhaps the dumbest post today, which includes Leon posting drunk for an hour

    Would Switzerland have been better off joining the central powers?
    Was Switzerland under attack?
    They would have been had they been part of a larger bloc.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited February 2023
    Leon said:

    “The US Air Force general overseeing North American airspace said Sunday he was not ruling out aliens after a string of shoot-downs of unidentified objects.

    Asked whether he had ruled out an extraterrestrial origin for three floating objects shot down by warplanes in as many days, Gen. Glen VanHerck said: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out.

    “I haven’t ruled out anything.””

    https://nypost.com/2023/02/13/top-general-not-ruling-out-aliens-after-3-ufos-shot-down/

    Indeed. I have to say that your usual refrain that this should be bigger news than it is is more than usually apt, at the moment.

    Whatever this is, it's huge news either way. The world's leading military and technological superpower just has no idea what's going on. Even if it's just China or some private individual, that also would be huge news, in terms of the global power hierarchy.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    mwadams said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    There's a legitimate strategic interest in not depending on South East Asia for all your semiconductor requirements, though.
    I know that, but I don't see why the public is paying for it, you would have thought that the companies would have their own self interest in avoiding Chinese interference. Also you can probably mostly solve the problem by simple policy decisions for procurement. It looks to me that the tech industry is taking governments for a ride, in a very similar way to which aerospace and defence contractors regularly screw us.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    HYUFD said:

    Winchester and Guildford also Lib Dem gains, the culture wars do not play here from the fuck business party

    The Tories of course lost Winchester in 1997 and Guildford in 2001 to the LDs even before Brexit
    Yes but Cameron held these seats. You seem intent to say goodbye to your lifelong voters.
    Our friend HY is effectively conceding that hoping for a 1997/2001 is as good as things get. Which is more pessimistic for the Tories than the expectations of a fair few non-Tories on here!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    "Well run" is very definitely an example of begging the question. But nice try slipping it in there.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”
    Anything that requires diverting today's (and sadly tomorrow's) money away from old people is simply not going to get funded. The UK government now exists to shovel tax to them via pensions and healthcare, everything else is expendable, including education, industrial spending and eventually even defence spending.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    Why do you think the US has a semiconductor industry in the first place ?

    I'd prefer to have some of the highly profitable industries in the UK.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,154
    edited February 2023
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    Why do you think the US has a semiconductor industry in the first place ?

    I'd prefer to have some of the highly profitable industries in the UK.
    So would I, and the way to attract that is low taxes preferably, rather than politicians handing taxpayers money to firms whether they're profitable or (more likely) not.

    But then people say "look at this profitable industry, they should be paying more tax" and then firms choose to invest elsewhere.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    'Picking winners' and giving them taxpayers money is generally a terrible idea.

    Creating the right tax incentives and having the right immigration etc policies seeking to attract the best and brightest from the entire planet regardless of their nationality is eminently sensible.
    That doesn't work for capital intensive industries where the pay off is decades away and upfront cost in the tens of billions. State support for some sectors is a necessity and the UK does very poorly in these.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    edited February 2023

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    'Picking winners' and giving them taxpayers money is generally a terrible idea.

    Creating the right tax incentives and having the right immigration etc policies seeking to attract the best and brightest from the entire planet regardless of their nationality is eminently sensible.
    No one is asking government to pick winners (they'd be crap at it anyway).
    Just recognise that there are some rather important industries which need incentives to be in the UK.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701
    ‘Winning here’

    Is this more an attempt to see off labour as a threat to ditching the Tories.
  • I’m not sure Angela thought this through:

    Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has denied that her decision to expense hundreds of pounds on Apple electronics is the same as Whitehall’s use of government procurement cards on luxury items.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/feb/13/conservatives-tories-rishi-sunak-expenses-spending-angela-rayner-labour-uk-politics-live

    It bloody is the same, and the Labour attack campaign on this is utterly stupid. We have vast millions in fraudulent contracts paid out to Tory friends and donors, yes they decide to go on the attack because government ministers on government business stay in suitable hotels.

    In 2025 when DPM Rayner is off to Paris for a summit she won't be staying in a sodding Ibis will she?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    Why do you think the US has a semiconductor industry in the first place ?

    I'd prefer to have some of the highly profitable industries in the UK.
    So would I, and the way to attract that is low taxes preferably, rather than politicians handing taxpayers money to firms whether they're profitable or (more likely) not.

    But then people say "look at this profitable industry, they should be paying more tax" and then firms choose to invest elsewhere.
    No, it's matched investment funds, low taxes only get us halfway there and it's why we don't have any kind of semi-conductors industry and why our car industry is dying.
  • Leon said:

    “The US Air Force general overseeing North American airspace said Sunday he was not ruling out aliens after a string of shoot-downs of unidentified objects.

    Asked whether he had ruled out an extraterrestrial origin for three floating objects shot down by warplanes in as many days, Gen. Glen VanHerck said: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out.

    “I haven’t ruled out anything.””

    https://nypost.com/2023/02/13/top-general-not-ruling-out-aliens-after-3-ufos-shot-down/

    Indeed. I have to say that your usual refrain that this should be bigger news than it is is more than usually apt, at the moment.

    Whatever this is, it's huge news either way. The world's leading military and technological superpower just has no idea what's going on. Even if it's just China or some private individual, that also would be huge news, in terms of the global power hierarchy.
    Or [tinfoil hat on], they have access to this technology but weren’t aware others did.

    As I note upthread the significant thing here is, barring ET, there appears to be man-made technology out there that far exceeds what the man on the street thought possible.

  • MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    I really don't understand why so many cheer on these massive handouts of public money to generally highly profitable companies. It really does seem like sticking a flag on your company is all you need to do to open the public purse.
    'Picking winners' and giving them taxpayers money is generally a terrible idea.

    Creating the right tax incentives and having the right immigration etc policies seeking to attract the best and brightest from the entire planet regardless of their nationality is eminently sensible.
    That doesn't work for capital intensive industries where the pay off is decades away and upfront cost in the tens of billions. State support for some sectors is a necessity and the UK does very poorly in these.
    State support can be in the form of incentives and guarantees that don't involve picking winners and losers though.

    How you structure the incentives matters. Simply writing a cheque to a flagship and hoping it works isn't the best way of doing it.
  • DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174

    Leon said:

    “The US Air Force general overseeing North American airspace said Sunday he was not ruling out aliens after a string of shoot-downs of unidentified objects.

    Asked whether he had ruled out an extraterrestrial origin for three floating objects shot down by warplanes in as many days, Gen. Glen VanHerck said: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out.

    “I haven’t ruled out anything.””

    https://nypost.com/2023/02/13/top-general-not-ruling-out-aliens-after-3-ufos-shot-down/

    Indeed. I have to say that your usual refrain that this should be bigger news than it is is more than usually apt, at the moment.

    Whatever this is, it's huge news either way. The world's leading military and technological superpower just has no idea what's going on.
    See also Montana. Radar anomaly. Non-event. Yes we closed airspace, but ... as you were. Weeellll, if that's so then they sound very twitchy.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11742541/Montana-congressman-says-object-state-NORAD-dismissed-anomaly.html
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    DJ41a said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour and the LDs could banish the Conservatives to history with an electoral agreement.

    No they couldn't, some Orange Book LDs would go Tory and some Corbynites in Labour would go Green or start their own party if a formal Labour and LD pact. UKIP got 12% in 2015 when the Tories did a deal with the LDs and leftwing LDs went Labour
    Who mentioned 'formal'?
    Surely you did. How can an electoral agreement not be formal? How would it be decided which party should run in which constituencies?
    Hmmm... thinks. An informal agreement?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    FPT: This Andrew Sullivan piece on Biden's poltical strategy is definitely worth reading: https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/william-jefferson-biden-triangulates-d3a

    Briefly, Sulivan says Biden is copying Clinton's "triangulation".

    (I mostly agree with Sulivan's analysis.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited February 2023

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Depends on the constituency, Carlotta.

    Here in sunny Tewkesbury the LDs are coming from so far back the considerations you mention may well apply. I'm unsure how I would vote myself.

    Down the road in Cheltenham however it's a different gether altothing. If the LDs don't win there, they've had a very bad night.
    And if you look at 1997 that disproves Carlotta's contention in any case.

    Historically the third party has always had its best results when a Conservative government is unpopular, because many Conservative voters have always been resistant to voting Labour even when thoroughly disillusioned with 'their own side', whereas the other way around whilst Labour may have had a historically strong tribal vote, once a voter is ready to break with the tribe they are mostly quite willing to jump to the Tories without stopping to vote for a centre party - cf. the former red wall.
    What historical evidence is there for that besides 1997? Be careful of letting history be a single instance.

    Actually if you look further back, the third party did very well in 1983 (where they doubled their seats) while the Tories were scoring a landslide and Labour were doing very badly. The last time before that they did well was February 1974 when both major parties fell backwards by a combined 13.4% of the national vote share. While their worst result was of course 2015 when both major parties gained vote share.

    There's no discernible pattern it seems to me to be a case of this party doing well is good news for the third party, rather it seems to be a case of the third party can do well when a party suffers, whether it be Tories (1997) or Labour (1983) or both (1974).
    1983 is an unusual case, which is often misunderstood as somehow being a split in the anti-Tory vote. Yet research has shown that a majority of Alliance voters in that GE preferred the Tories to Labour. It's quite possible that the Alliance column included a lot of former Tory voters repelled by Mrs T, whereas disaffected Labour voters, repelled by Foot, CND and the rest, plumped Conservative. Hence the massive run of good but not close second places the Alliance chalked up in what we now call the blue wall.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Nigelb said:

    Why do you think the US has a semiconductor industry in the first place ?

    I'd prefer to have some of the highly profitable industries in the UK.

    US universities, national laboratories, and west coast electronics companies clustering, plus a whole load of Cold War spending, especially on electronics for aircraft, air defence, and ballistic missiles. The desire to integrate components and build more robust systems lead to the sort of electronics production that later facilitated LSI for computer systems, and ultimately enabled the micro-computer. I'm pretty sure that giving enormous tax breaks to already huge and highly profitable companies paid no real part in it, but if I'm wrong someone can pipe up.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Depends on the constituency, Carlotta.

    Here in sunny Tewkesbury the LDs are coming from so far back the considerations you mention may well apply. I'm unsure how I would vote myself.

    Down the road in Cheltenham however it's a different gether altothing. If the LDs don't win there, they've had a very bad night.
    And if you look at 1997 that disproves Carlotta's contention in any case.

    Historically the third party has always had its best results when a Conservative government is unpopular, because many Conservative voters have always been resistant to voting Labour even when thoroughly disillusioned with 'their own side', whereas the other way around whilst Labour may have had a historically strong tribal vote, once a voter is ready to break with the tribe they are mostly quite willing to jump to the Tories without stopping to vote for a centre party - cf. the former red wall.
    What historical evidence is there for that besides 1997? Be careful of letting history be a single instance.

    Actually if you look further back, the third party did very well in 1983 (where they doubled their seats) while the Tories were scoring a landslide and Labour were doing very badly. The last time before that they did well was February 1974 when both major parties fell backwards by a combined 13.4% of the national vote share. While their worst result was of course 2015 when both major parties gained vote share.

    There's no discernible pattern it seems to me to be a case of this party doing well is good news for the third party, rather it seems to be a case of the third party can do well when a party suffers, whether it be Tories (1997) or Labour (1983) or both (1974).
    1983 is an unusual case, which is often misunderstood as somehow being a split in the anti-Tory vote. Yet research has shown that a majority of Alliance voters in that GE preferred the Tories to Labour. It's quite possible that the Alliance column included a lot of former Tory voters repelled by Mrs T, whereas disaffected Labour voters, repelled by Foot, CND and the rest, plumped Conservative. Hence the massive run of good but not close second places the Alliance chalked up in what we now call the blue wall.
    Indeed, but 1997 is an unusual case too. All cases where the number of instances = 1 are rather by definition unusual cases.

    Either way, there's not enough data from a sample of 1 to give any rule of thumb. The Lib Dems ought to do better in the next election simple due to a rising tide effect, there's more opportunities from the Tories doing badly (and less dislike of the Lib Dems than in the past so that should unwind) but then when Labour next becomes unpopular that too could lead to new opportunities for the Lib Dems just as they gained seats in 1983.

    Churn and chaos creates opportunities.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,843
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The number of UK companies considering decamping is getting somewhat alarming.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”

    Given we have Brexited, and given the consequent disinvestment in the UK, what are the best/least bad bets for the UK at this point, for our niche industries?
    The idea that we need to be in the EU for industry or due to an EU trade war with China, is as patently absurd as an argument that Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan need to join China for the same reason in reverse.

    Actually well run smaller independent countries like SK, Taiwan and Singapore tend to do much better than the bureaucratic behemothic bloc does.
    "Well run" is very definitely an example of begging the question. But nice try slipping it in there.

    British semiconductor bosses threaten to move overseas as U.S. and EU splurge on chips
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/uk-semiconductor-strategy-chip-firms-threaten-to-move-overseas.html

    ...In the U.S., President Joe Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion package that includes $52 billion of funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

    The EU, meanwhile, has earmarked 43 billion euros ($45.9 billion) for Europe’s semiconductor industry with the aim of producing 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030...

    ...The U.K. won’t have the kind of financial firepower to match those bold spending packages, they say. However, they’re hopeful the country will commit to investment in the several millions, tax incentives, and an easier immigration process for high-skilled workers...

    ...A U.K. semiconductor strategy was expected to come out last year. But it has faced a series of delays due to political instability. The government previously suggested establishing a national institution, among other initiatives, to boost its semiconductor industry.

    “The rumors I’ve heard is [it may arrive] any day now,” Chris Ballance, co-founder of U.K. quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics, told CNBC. However, he added the process had been “going on for the last four or five months.”
    Anything that requires diverting today's (and sadly tomorrow's) money away from old people is simply not going to get funded. The UK government now exists to shovel tax to them via pensions and healthcare, everything else is expendable, including education, industrial spending and eventually even defence spending.
    I think the generational bias in politics might reduce significantly as the years roll on and money gets ever tighter.
  • DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174
    edited February 2023

    DJ41a said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour and the LDs could banish the Conservatives to history with an electoral agreement.

    No they couldn't, some Orange Book LDs would go Tory and some Corbynites in Labour would go Green or start their own party if a formal Labour and LD pact. UKIP got 12% in 2015 when the Tories did a deal with the LDs and leftwing LDs went Labour
    Who mentioned 'formal'?
    Surely you did. How can an electoral agreement not be formal? How would it be decided which party should run in which constituencies?
    Hmmm... thinks. An informal agreement?
    How could that possibly work? A party agrees with another party not to field candidates in constituencies X, Y, Z, etc., and then if anyone asks did you agree that with the other party that you're telling your supporters to vote for in those constituencies, they say oh no, there must have been a series of local arrangements, we don't know nuffink here in London?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    On topic, not sure Labour voters who think they’re on track for a Labour government are going to “lend” their votes to the LDs. Much easier to do if Labour are clearly heading for opposition - which won’t be the case this time. Who doesn’t like to back a winner? “Only LibDems (who?) can stop the Tories” may come across as counterintuitive, and certainly from a national point of view.

    Doesn't the 1997 experience point the other way? If lefties really want to kick the Tories, they use their votes efficiently. If not they scatter their votes to please themselves.
    I’m not sure we’re quite at 1997 yet.

    The Tories aren’t yet in as big a mess as the post-black Monday crew got themselves into - although it’s certainly possible they get there and then some.

    Starmer is no Blair - who was viewed with genuine enthusiasm as a “breath of fresh air”. Starmer’s main attraction is “he’s not the other one”. The absence of a negative isn’t as motivating as the presence of a positive.

    I think we’re heading for Labour clearly largest party, possibly shy of a majority. If SLAB can focus on the NHS/economy then they can attack both SNP and the Tories - and continue their silence on the GRR bill, then they might get enough seats to gain a majority.

    How the Tories do will depend on how they behave between now and then. “Steady as she goes” should see them thumped but surviving. Leadership coups will get them the little they will deserve.
    My belief is diametrically opposed here - My objection to Sunak/Hunt has always been a policy one, not personality. It is interesting and heartening that groups like the Conservative Growth Group have sprung up to force the Chancellor and PM to challenge the Treasury and address the need to facilitate growth via the tax system. However, for Sunak/Hunt, even if they turn around with the best budget and set of active, balls-out growth promoting, tax-simplifying, power station-building policies, it's too late for them to get any positive credit for it. They're not salvageable.

    It should be a civilised process, no protracted election, and Sunak should be offered a prominent cabinet Role (Foreign Sec.), to avoid rancour and signal a broad cabinet.
This discussion has been closed.