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LAB’s set to win most seats but is not in majority territory – politicalbetting.com

I think the betting markets have got this right and that LAB is in with a very good chance of winning most seats at the next general election but at the moment an overall majority.is rated as an evens chance.
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Where their core of solid support to deny Labour an overall majority come from, at the next election ?
The big challenge for them is going to be what to put in their manifesto when there is no money to spend. It makes me think that that is why they are proposing things like Lords reform and VAT on private schools - sops to the activists as there won't be any big ticket items.
https://twitter.com/JohnBoweActor/status/1596804673448849409?s=20&t=TmtGUQZePMaz42cI9I2MEQ
The economy is going to get worse during the first year, may be shoots of recovery in two years time.
The Conservatives have the "bully pulpit" of government, which will enable them to spread their message.
What should be their tactics? Aim for hung parliament territory? Which seats should they try to keep? What are the policies and messaging to facilitate that strategy?
Conservatives are finished for now. The forecast for December is terrible very cold which will mean high heating bills for all
The Lab strategy then is to try and win the Red Wall back and also win the traditional marginals like the Swindon seats. The private schools policy is the sort that is likely to play well in working class seats but less so in the blue wall.
Look, I know you're doing your best from another country, but please appreciate we are Brits, not Americans and we don't fall for this crap so easily. Please try harder. Start with getting your capitalization right.
Amazing cards and match ups. I’ve avoided tingle creek, too open for me.
2.05 Aintree
❤️ Snow Leopardess. When she’s back winning I will be on her.
2.40 Aintree
Gunsight Ridge. In my book with a big impressed me in its favour.
3.15 Aintree
Bold Plan. I’m on at 25-1, chances better than that imo
3.30 Sandown
Almazhar Garde - long shot e/w of the week. Has placed in these sort of races.
But it doesn't feel like that to me.
Maybe it's the circles I move in?
Perhaps not.
A Labour majority shouldn't be on... Should it? The fact that we're talking about it shows quite how much Johnson and Truss messed up.
It won’t really impact anything but the problem is that for every Elton who do a lot around the country to help poorer people there are multiple other private schools that do less then the square root of sod all.
22 months is indeed a long time, but a Tory recovery is not the only possibility.
Also an interesting by election in West Lothian on Thursday:
Lab: 1783 (39.8%, +10.2)
SNP: 1576 (35.2%, -6.7)
Con: 347 (7.8%, -10)
Ho (Ind): 275 (6.1%, new)
LD: 167 (3.7%, nc)
La (Ind): 125 (2.8%, new)
Grn: 122 (2.7%, -1.6)
Alba: 81 (1.8%, +0.4)
Caused by a Labour death and noting that younger SNP voters probably didn't turn out but it's interesting that both the SNP vote was down 6.7% and the Greens down unlike the Glasgow by election result two weeks ago which Labour also won where the SNP share held up and the Greens increased.
Labour also came third behind the SNP and the Tories in this ward in 2017.
How vulgar it is for a person during a conversation to fiddle with a handheld computer to ask a US advertising company for help. I sometimes encounter people who say something and when I ask them to explain it they say I should ask a US advertising company. Almost always it's the same US advertising company too - the one that gets 10 times more web traffic than any other company on the web.
Everyone should acquire proper library skills and proper thinking skills. I've got no objection to nose-picking but it should be done in private.
AFAICS, comprehensively defeating the
invasion, and rebuilding Ukraine's economy is the only way to deter a regime which still thinks it's a nineteenth century empire that can operate by the rules of that time.
If you've got a better idea than our simply inviting Putin to redraw the boundaries of Europe as he pleases, do share.
...It remains very uncertain in the second half of December, but the signal for below average temperatures does weaken, especially in southern and western areas, where it could also be wetter and windier at times....
All being equal, though, a mild spell tends to save on heating over and above what a cold spell subsequently costs.
However, I think it's just as likely that it goes the other way - that Labour strengthens its grip and the Tories become even less popular. Starmer's slow but steadily improving ratings could continue upwards, while Sunak could be cruelly exposed as a bit of a nothing. So far I see no vision from Sunak, just crude attacks on Starmer ("you're Corbyn in disguise/want open borders/want to reverse Brexit/in the pocket of the unions/SNP etc.") that I think are already wearing a bit thin.
Though of course the Tories could be saved by the huge uprising against Labour from the vast majority of people who are completely unaffected by Labour's audacious policy of requiring private schools to pay tax.
majority. However it is also possible Sunak could get enough swing back for the government before the next election as Brown did from Cameron before the 2010 election to get a hung parliament. Even if Starmer like Cameron still becomes PM
Absurdly complicated.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfessaJay/status/1598827111392968704
Man voting in Georgia is so different than in Illinois. When I lived in chicago, during early voting, I went to the local elementary school, waited in line about ten minutes, and they gave me a sheet of paper. I checked people off then I put it in the machine and left.
A cynic would think they're trying to discourage voting...
1/ What kind of an MP is @StephenFlynnSNP?
We know that he can deliver fake statistics with aplomb. But what about the serious, detailed work of parliamentary democracy?
TL;DR: FOI responses reveal that Flynn is a bluster specialist, but too lazy for real work…
https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1599004012854259712
Transcript of interaction with ChatGPT (original unasterisked):
Just curious if you had anything more than snark.
To flesh out the Tory line of attack, it's YehButCorbyn followed by ThisShowsCorbynInARussianHat, followed by AndHe'sGotABeardJustLikeJihadists, followed by TaxingTheRichMoreIsCommunism.
But Sturgeon is so full of it in so many ways, and this is so obvious to about 90% of voters south of the border (being obvious only to about 60% in the small part of the population that lives north of the border) that "Labour would be in Sturgeon's pocket" could be quite a good Tory line. The Labour response should be "Who on earth mentioned a hung parliament?"
However I think they could do better than expected in Scotland, the shine is coming off SNP. LAB could get 15 to 20 seats there, that could well push them to the overall majority.
340 seats quite possible for LAB but more is unlikely.
Reusing old lines like that would just be a sign of desperation.
Unfortunately this is likely to get drowned out by Tory "blame the immigrants" racism, because most voters are complete morons. But Labour can't realistically fight on being more racist than the Tories. That's a fight they would definitely lose.
What I'd love Labour to do is ditch Starmer at the right moment, ideally about 6 months before an election if they can manage it, and replace him very fast, in a "coronation", with Angela Rayner.
Angela hasn't got much upstairs but she's got guts and charm and most of all she uses witchcraft so she has my support.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/02/britons-offered-huge-tax-breaks-work-home-spain/
I see that Australia is going to do something similar. It woudl be great if, for example, Germany and France were to do this, too.
long-winded git isn't it?
Conservative woman
Stay away from me
Conservative woman
Mama, let me be
Don't come hangin' 'round my door
I don't wanna see your face no more
I got more important things to do
Than spend my time growin' old with you
Personally I'd like Labour to come forward with a plan for Britain's recovery and campaign positively on that - it's clear that Sunak's Government neither has a plan, nor desires one. Even the bizarre No. 10 statement on the football 'we hope this lifts the nation's spirits before the crushing of all its hopes and dreams to come this Winter' seems designed to demoralise. We have a toxic Government. SKS just needs to offer a modicum of hope.
The civil service has been using for years to write letters.
Ah, my coat! I’ll be heading back to the 1970s working men’s club circuit now.
It would be as suicidal as Labour replacing Blair with Prescott before the 1997 election
....But I like it!
Who needs the Single Market? I could move to Seville tomorrow
“Why work from home when you can work from paradise?”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/
I can't see the BJP winning seats in England.
Starmer really hasn't got anyone of such total uselessness left. (Perhaps Dodds, but she did hm a great service as a temporary fill-in)
This is, by the by, a huge threat to the UK’s tax take
They are also making it easy to bring a spouse and dependants.
Interestingly it seems he won in 2018 by a mere 55k votes (after being only 17k ahead before the runoff), and in 2022 by over 350k. Even with a much lower turnout for the previous runoff, it certainly seems he was rewarded.
Seville is a great city, not sure I’d want to live there. Somewhere like Girona would be good, close to Barcelona for int’l links.
Malaga maybe. Buzzing town, magnificent climate
Or of course: Bangkok. And pay zero tax
It was Middle England voting to keep Kinnock out in 1992 more than Major in.
Rayner would turn off Middle England like Corbyn and Kinnock did but Blair didn't and Starmer doesn't
The betting markets have been a shockingly poor guide in recent elections: from the US Presidentials, to the mid-terms, to Brexit, to Boris, to by-elections etc. etc.
A really, really, poor guide for anyone wanting to make money betting on politics. Most punters are lemmings who bet according to past form above all else. That's not savvy.
Labour will win by a vast majority.
If he's not already on board Labour should co opt him. If that's unsuccessful he'd make a good voice over
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1598993609352585216?s=46&t=m-vcITFyCp0odlrn3caf5Q
Of all the Dan Hodges bad takes, this is surely contender for supreme leader. Oh Dan mate.
I think he‘s been spending some time in Matt Goodwin land. The land where everyone over the age of 35 listens to Vera Lynn and talks about the war. He’s not quite got the point that this track is 27 years old. Voters up to about the age of 60 will remember it with nostalgia, and will remember getting down on the Dancefloor to all those excellent 90s club anthems.
The 1990s is to Gen X what the 50s and 60s are to the boomers. This is actually a video most likely to appeal to middle aged voters. It says “she gets us”. It reminds us of early Blair and the optimism of the mid 90s. It’s a propaganda masterpiece.
If you’re affluent and mobile would you pay 40% in drizzly Dublin or 26% in sunny San Sebastián?
Or not. It’s no longer attractive to sexy, hip young foreigners, apparently.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1598992902566252552?s=46&t=6NT-ktUQVKhK0Ov21sqAHw
And if it is a comment on the country as a whole, which it presumably is, well capital cities are often quite different from the rest of their country, so London itself would still be attractive.