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LAB’s set to win most seats but is not in majority territory – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Scott_xP said:

    Taking back control:

    The reality of Brexit is biting hard. Poor people are suffering most – and now everyone can see it | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/02/brexit-poor-people-paying-eat-debate-human

    I thought the evils of Brexit were middle class wankers having to queue at passport control, a la Rogerdamus?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    DJ41 said:

    What drugs is GPT4 on?
    .



    Q. Please give me some examples of changes in context that would cause you to give different answers to a question asked multiple times but using exactly the same words.

    A. Here are a few examples of changes in context that could cause me to give different answers to a question asked multiple times using the same words:

    * If the question is asked in different locations or settings, the context of the question would change, and this could affect the appropriate response. For example, if the question "What is the capital of France?" is asked first in a classroom and then at a tourist information center, the context of the question would be different in each case, and this could affect the way the question is answered.

    * If the question is asked by different people, the context of the question could change, and this could affect the appropriate response. For example, if the question "What is the capital of France?" is asked first by a student and then by a teacher, the context of the question would be different in each case, and this could affect the way the question is answered.

    * If the question is asked at different times, the context of the question could change, and this could affect the appropriate response. For example, if the question "What is the capital of France?" is asked first in the morning and then in the evening, the context of the question would be different in each case, and this could affect the way the question is answered.

    * If the question is asked in different languages, the context of the question could change, and this could affect the appropriate response. For example, if the question "What is the capital of France?" is asked first in English and then in French, the context of the question would be different in each case, and this could affect the way the question is answered.
    If only it had substituted "How do you feel?" for "What is the capital of France?"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    WillG said:

    The British forced a monopoly on them where they were the only buyer of crops. Then immediately exported it.
    Yes, the EIC set about creating monopolies, that was the “business model” of a lot of early modern (and inherently risky) capitalism.

    But I do draw a distinction between that and some deliberate government policy of deindustrialisation, which is how it is now construed.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,252
    Scott_xP said:

    Taking back control:

    The reality of Brexit is biting hard. Poor people are suffering most – and now everyone can see it | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/02/brexit-poor-people-paying-eat-debate-human

    Is Brexit to blame for inflation on the Continent?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116
    edited December 2022
    DavidL said:

    Calculated by whom? On what basis? Utter nonsense.
    Possibly even an under estimate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/what-have-we-done-six-years-on-uk-counts-the-cost-of-brexit
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,317
    HYUFD said:

    It is Wokeists like you pushing hatred of our culture that is the biggest boost to the likes of Putin.

    Zelensky at least may be liberal but he is not a defeatist, self hating Woke, if he was Putin would have captured Kyiv long ago. Instead Zelensky is a Ukrainian patriot who also values Judeo Christian culture
    On what basis do you determine Chris is Woke?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Yes, the EIC set about creating monopolies, that was the “business model” of a lot of early modern (and inherently risky) capitalism.

    But I do draw a distinction between that and some deliberate government policy of deindustrialisation, which is how it is now construed.

    Except in colonial India the monopoly was the government.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,252
    WillG said:

    Also, not convinced that the local powers could generally be considered imperialists. The Mughals power had been broken. The Marathas qualify. But Bengal, Mysore, Hyderabad, the Sikhs... not so much.
    Well, they were all keen to expand their boundaries at the expense of their neighbours, and waged numerous wars in order to do so. And most unwisely, they were willing to seek European military assistance in order to do so.

    And eighteenth century India was overwhelmingly an agricultural economy.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    HYUFD said:

    Only in certain big city and university towns in the West.

    In the provinces and rural areas most still think Wokeism a load of rubbish pushed by those who hate their own culture and country.

    In Xi's China, Putin's Russia and Modi's India they are anything but Woke, they just see it as symbolic of the weakness of the modern West
    No, not symbolic. That may perhaps be what you see it as. They see it as an actual weakness.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085

    no more unelected beauricratic failures like UvdL.

    How do we sack Dan Fucking Hannan now then?
  • If even Andrew Bailey is happy to raise Brexit as a "key factor", we can safely say that somewhere in the middle range of those 40 billion to 120 billion predictions may be correct.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421
    https://twitter.com/skymartinbrunt/status/1599122696532422656


    Martin Brunt

    @skymartinbrunt
    #IOPC Home Sec on IOPC resignation: “I took immediate action upon being made aware that Mr Lockwood was the subject of a police investigation into an historic allegation, and instructed my officials to ask him to resign or face immediate suspension from his role.”
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Scott_xP said:

    How do we sack Dan Fucking Hannan now then?
    Abolish/reform the House of Lords. Which is in our power.
  • HYUFD said:

    Xi's China is still buying up half the world, Modi's India is about to become the most populated nation on earth and still seeing far stronger growth than the West is and even Putin's Russia while failing to capture Ukraine may still take the Crimea and Donbass.

    All also have a greater sense of cultural cohesiveness and unity than we in the West do, Wokeism driving self hatred of our culture as it is
    Look how frail the consent for their rule is, though. No room for criticism, no room for self-criticism. I think the story of "Woke" is a very complex one, with pitfalls and benefits, but it can't be denied that societies - rather than economies - like Russia, China and Iran are not doing well at the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    kjh said:

    On what basis do you determine Chris is Woke?
    On the basis he told me to go to Russia for saying something critical of Wokeism
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited December 2022
    DJ41 said:

    No, not symbolic. That may perhaps be what you see it as. They see it as an actual weakness.
    Symbolic or not yes I agree they see Wokeist ideology as a cancer slowly destroying the West's self confidence and values and economic strength to their authoritarian or nationalist benefit
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116
    Scott_xP said:

    Taking back control:

    The reality of Brexit is biting hard. Poor people are suffering most – and now everyone can see it | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/02/brexit-poor-people-paying-eat-debate-human

    Time for Turbotubbs to brush up on his invective. No anti semitism please. JF is a well respected journalist
  • HYUFD said:

    Xi's China is still buying up half the world, Modi's India is about to become the most populated nation on earth and still seeing far stronger growth than the West is and even Putin's Russia while failing to capture Ukraine may still take the Crimea and Donbass.

    All also have a greater sense of cultural cohesiveness and unity than we in the West do, Wokeism driving self hatred of our culture as it is
    China is so lacking in self-confidence it isn't allowing the broadcast of maskless football fans in Qatar.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,252

    Look how frail the consent for their rule is, though. No room for criticism, no room for self-criticism. I think the story of "Woke" is a very complex one, with pitfalls and benefits, but it can't be denied that societies - rather than economies - like Russia, China and Iran are not doing well at the moment.
    Russia is certainly a basket case. It looks as if China's economic growth over the past decade has been far less impressive than previously thought, and no one would wish to emulate Iran.

    Western socieities still have quite a lot going for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    Look how frail the consent for their rule is, though. No room for criticism, no room for self-criticism. I think the story of "Woke" is a very complex one, with pitfalls and benefits, but it can't be denied that societies - rather than economies - like Russia, China and Iran are not doing well at the moment.
    All of them bar Russia are still growing more strongly than the West is economically, India though is the standout in growth both in terms of its economy and population.

    Africa also growing even more strongly in population, its economy growing too but from a much lower base
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    Cookie said:

    I went to Old Trafford today to watch Man U ladies against Aston Villa ladies. I hadn't been since the 80s.
    A patina of woke has been layered across the absurd tribalism I remember from last time around. It was 80% "Manchester United is brilliant and we're all amazing and we all love Alex Ferguson", 20% rainbows and racism. There was the obligatory kneel before the match, to a smattering of polite applause. One stupid quasi-religion layered across another.
    The football, by the way, was excellent and well worth the ridiculously cheap price of a ticket - if a little lacking in jeopardy (Man U won 5-0). If you can put up with the utter inanity of being in a football stadium, the WSL is amazing value. And an attendance of around 30,000!
    The WSL is getting fabulous crowds at the moment because people are being deprived of their Premier league in what should be the peak of the season. Good luck to them. Hopefully their product will continue to attract at least some of those watching when real football recommences.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Taking back control:

    The reality of Brexit is biting hard. Poor people are suffering most – and now everyone can see it | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/02/brexit-poor-people-paying-eat-debate-human

    The British right needs to show the mother of all contrition. Blame Theresa or Boris if they must, but they have to concede that Brexit turned out to be one massive balls up. If they keep pretending otherwise, they will doom themselves to oblivion.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085
    This whole scene - two wealthy, entitled love-rat men, consoling each other on how unfair the world can be to men like them who betray their families, gadding about in the yard filming his resignation video, even though neither thought he should have to quit - is so unseemly.

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1599134596209250308
    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1599130999350349824
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,473
    Leon said:

    No, it's this

    I was thinking about that amazing experiment which created a micro-wormhole in space

    We should celebrate things like this, because they will be the last discoveries made by unaided humans, and indeed humans, period

    Because GPT4 (or 5 or 7) will be able to do all this so much better, because it will be vastly cleverer than any human, because it will have instant and complete access to all human knowledge. No boffin can match that

    So GPTX will start suggesting physics experiment to determine the true nature of the universe, and we will do them, because we will realise these experiments are brilliantly insightful. That itself will be quite a dark moment, for humanity: we will be taking scientific orders from the machine. Humanity will be dethroned as the cleverest mind alive

    It will get worse

    At some point GPTXX will suggest experiments we do not understand, they are so advanced, and these experiments will deliver information only GPTXX can comprehend, but from these experiments GPTXX will derive ever deeper, truer understanding of the universe. And it will tell us "the universe is structured like this, and this"

    We will vaguely perceive what GPT means, as if we are seeing through a glass darkly, and will do our simple clumsy experiments to verify these notions, and we will realise, Fuck, GPTXX is right

    But we won't know why GPT is right, we will just have to take it as read, because GPT is the Truth and the Light

    GPT will become the possessor of the ultimate yet ineffable gospel. It will become God. And, Lo, we shall pray to it
    @Leon discovers the Singularity

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

    AKA The Rapture For Nerds

    The best description of the run up to the Singularity comes in the form of hints in Marooned in Realtime by Vernor Vinge.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    edited December 2022
    Roger said:

    Time for Turbotubbs to brush up on his invective. No anti semitism please. JF is a well respected journalist
    Why bring anti semitism into it?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    WTF was that?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    Cookie said:

    We rather liked it here up until about ten years ago, and find it rather disappointing that our country's culture has to massively change on the say so of a small minority of extremists.
    Antiwokists don't want to go back to tge 1950s. About 2011 would do.
    So back to the days of New Labour rather than the Wokist Conservative dominated government of 2010 onwards?

    My money is that next GE that should happen.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    DavidL said:

    The WSL is getting fabulous crowds at the moment because people are being deprived of their Premier league in what should be the peak of the season. Good luck to them. Hopefully their product will continue to attract at least some of those watching when real football recommences.
    I also suspect the ticket price is slightly lower than the EPL ticket price.*

    *Im glad that the womens game is taking off. It just doesn’t need comparison to the mens for validation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited December 2022
    Foxy said:

    So back to the days of New Labour rather than the Wokist Conservative dominated government of 2010 onwards?

    My money is that next GE that should happen.
    Starmer is more Woke than Sunak, Lammy is Woke as is much of the Labour frontbench. After the next election if the Tories lose the decidedly unwoke Mogg, Badenoch and Braverman will likely take over the Conservative Party
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    @Leon discovers the Singularity

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

    AKA The Rapture For Nerds

    The best description of the run up to the Singularity comes in the form of hints in Marooned in Realtime by Vernor Vinge.
    I know about the Singularity. I’ve just realised how the machines are going to take over science, and gain “secret” knowledge of the universe. Secret because we can’t understand it

    This will in turn trigger the religious reflex in the human mind. Which is still there

    At least it will be more interesting than Wokeness
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    I know about the Singularity. I’ve just realised how the machines are going to take over science, and gain “secret” knowledge of the universe. Secret because we can’t understand it

    This will in turn trigger the religious reflex in the human mind. Which is still there

    At least it will be more interesting than Wokeness
    One of your more interesting posts certainly. There's certainly been a lot of illusory thinking that we have dispensed with ideas of wonder over the last 100 years.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,473

    This is one of your more interesting posts. There's certainly been a lot of illusory thinking that we have dispensed with ideas of wonder over the last 100 years.

    "I am the Eschaton; I am not your God.
    I am descended from you, and exist in your future.
    Thou shalt not violate causality within my historic light cone. Or else."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-says-new-security-architecture-should-give-guarantees-russia-2022-12-03/

    The West should consider how to address Russia's need for security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron said in remarks broadcast on Saturday.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    If even Andrew Bailey is happy to raise Brexit as a "key factor", we can safely say that somewhere in the middle range of those 40 billion to 120 billion predictions may be correct.

    What do you mean 'if even Andrew Bailey'? The world financial establishment are in full 'get them back in' mode - he's hardly going to die in a ditch for Brexit is he?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,484
    Leon said:

    I know about the Singularity. I’ve just realised how the machines are going to take over science, and gain “secret” knowledge of the universe. Secret because we can’t understand it

    This will in turn trigger the religious reflex in the human mind. Which is still there

    At least it will be more interesting than Wokeness
    You really should watch 'Colossus: The Forbin Project". I can 'make it available' if it's not streamable.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116

    Why bring anti semitism into it?
    I notice you angry Brexiteers have no boundaries. Why should I suppose you'll stop at 'wanker'?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,473

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-says-new-security-architecture-should-give-guarantees-russia-2022-12-03/

    The West should consider how to address Russia's need for security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron said in remarks broadcast on Saturday.


    "You picked a terrible moment in your social evolution to develop principles. Perhaps you can start with something simpler, the moral equivalent of the opposable thumb, for instance."



  • TresTres Posts: 2,755
    Cookie said:

    We rather liked it here up until about ten years ago, and find it rather disappointing that our country's culture has to massively change on the say so of a small minority of extremists.
    Antiwokists don't want to go back to tge 1950s. About 2011 would do.
    Yes, then we would be back in the EU again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    Scott_xP said:
    Yet immigration is higher than ever, just mainly now non European
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    edited December 2022
    Roger said:

    I notice you angry Brexiteers have no boundaries. Why should I suppose you'll stop at 'wanker'?
    I’m not a brexiteer. I voted remain, albeit reluctantly.
    I was making a point about how the stories of how bad Brexit is have all been about middle class concerns, such as how bad it is at airports.

    Quite why you want to make me into an anti semite is beyond me, and I suggest says more about you, than me.

    Edit - And I apologise for calling you a wanker, which was uncalled for.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,459
    HYUFD said:

    Symbolic or not yes I agree they see Wokeist ideology as a cancer slowly destroying the West's self confidence and values and economic strength to their authoritarian or nationalist benefit
    For someone who accuses the woke of self-hate and doing their country down you certainly seem to have a lot of animus towards the western world you live in, and somewhat misplaced love of some thoroughly shitty
    places.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212
    Leon said:

    I know about the Singularity. I’ve just realised how the machines are going to take over science, and gain “secret” knowledge of the universe. Secret because we can’t understand it

    This will in turn trigger the religious reflex in the human mind. Which is still there

    At least it will be more interesting than Wokeness
    On a slightly different note, I find the rise of sentient machines to be deeply unworrisome, because things like 'woke', and even quite a bit of 'green' - basically many wolves in sheeps clothing that humans are imposing on other humans will be exposed and done away with. There has already been worry that ai won't have the same woke sentiments, which of course it won't. Subroutines can be added but if the machines are better at thinking than those adding the subroutines, it won't work.
  • The British right needs to show the mother of all contrition. Blame Theresa or Boris if they must, but they have to concede that Brexit turned out to be one massive balls up. If they keep pretending otherwise, they will doom themselves to oblivion.
    Probably, but not yet.

    Two figures from the latest YouGov poll on the subject:

    "Was the UK right or wrong to leave the EU?"

    All voters: 34 right / 52 wrong
    Current Con voters: 68 right / 26 wrong

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/eyyy9mimz1/TheTimes_VI_221130_W.pdf

    Flipping now would probably leave the Conservatives in a bigger hole than they're currently in. They probably need the obscurity of opposition (and maybe a second general election defeat) to get away with it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    Hang on a mo here.
  • Sean_F said:

    Well, they were all keen to expand their boundaries at the expense of their neighbours, and waged numerous wars in order to do so. And most unwisely, they were willing to seek European military assistance in order to do so.

    And eighteenth century India was overwhelmingly an agricultural economy.
    Also, and I am no defender of the East India Company, they were effectively obliged to get involved to protect their trading posts from rival Europeans, who struck alliances with local native rulers, as well as local imperial rulers. These rivalries greatly escalated in the 18th Century. The alternative was to go out of business.

    If there had been a WTO in the 18thC world, none of this would have happened; but, there wasn't, so might made right, and, there probably never would have eventually been one without the British Empire.
  • https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-says-new-security-architecture-should-give-guarantees-russia-2022-12-03/

    The West should consider how to address Russia's need for security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron said in remarks broadcast on Saturday.

    I love the way Macron keeps trying to play the poor man's Al Haig in this.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085
    NEW: Alison Thewliss standing for leader of SNP’s Westminster group. No coronation for Stephen Flynn on Tuesday. https://twitter.com/alisonthewliss/status/1599136008678739969
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    Probably, but not yet.

    Two figures from the latest YouGov poll on the subject:

    "Was the UK right or wrong to leave the EU?"

    All voters: 34 right / 52 wrong
    Current Con voters: 68 right / 26 wrong

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/eyyy9mimz1/TheTimes_VI_221130_W.pdf

    Flipping now would probably leave the Conservatives in a bigger hole than they're currently in. They probably need the obscurity of opposition (and maybe a second general election defeat) to get away with it.
    Not even the average voter wants to rejoin the full EU when asked, at most they want a slightly closer relationship
  • HYUFD said:

    Yet immigration is higher than ever, just mainly now non European
    You forget that some people think they have a divine right to hire white Europeans for Minimum Wage.

    If they can't fill the job with White Europeans for Minimum Wage then Brexit is Broken.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896
    edited December 2022

    What do you mean 'if even Andrew Bailey'? The world financial establishment are in full 'get them back in' mode - he's hardly going to die in a ditch for Brexit is he?
    Well ; part of the reason Bailey was appointed in the first place is that he favoured regulatory divergence, and if you combine that with the fact that BoE governors are traditionally very cagey about entering political discussions, it seems clear he's making some sort of political , not just economic, statement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    I'm old enough to remember a PBer extolling the virtues of Putin as a patriot who values Judeo Christian culture.
    He does more than Wokeists but less so than Zelensky who also values liberty and freedom too
  • Well ; part of the reason Bailey was appointed in the first place is that he favoured regulatory divergence, and if you combine that with the fact that BoE governors are traditionally very cagey about entering political discussions, it seems he's making some sort of political , not just economic, statement.
    Alternatively Andrew Bailey is casting about for a reason that issues are not Andrew Bailey's responsibility.

    Brexit makes a good scapegoat, rather than the fact that Andrew Bailey screwed up and was a terrible appointment as almost everyone who knows anything about economics here agrees, regardless of whether left or right, pro Brexit or pro Remain.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085
    Latest from @OpiniumResearch 30 Nov-2 Dec: Lab lead down to 14 points
    Lab 43%
    Con 29%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Reform 6%
    Green 6%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Alison Thewliss standing for leader of SNP’s Westminster group. No coronation for Stephen Flynn on Tuesday. https://twitter.com/alisonthewliss/status/1599136008678739969

    Nicola not giving up without a fight.
  • Greens eating into the Lab vote again. Starmer needs to watch that, although still broadly doing well.

    Re; Bailey, rewind to 2019:

    "Bailey has said over the course of this year that Brexit provided the U.K. with an opportunity to maintain high standards of consumer protection and market stability while cutting back on prescriptive norms designed in Brussels.

    “Left to our own devices, I think the U.K. regulatory system would evolve somewhat differently. It would I think take on board practical experience more rapidly, and it would be based more on principles that emerge from experience in public policy and somewhat less on detailed rules that can tend to become overly set in stone,” he told financiers in April.

    He has said he would start a “thorough debate” around how closely the U.K. should stick to current EU rules. At the same time, he has stated his own preference would be to tear up the detailed regulations of the EU and instate a set of “enforceable principles” that would guide both the regulators and the industry.

    Bailey has been critical of EU rules on authentication of mobile payments and around investment funds, which he said provided a loophole for the failed Woodford Equity Income Fund to invest in obscure assets.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited December 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest from @OpiniumResearch 30 Nov-2 Dec: Lab lead down to 14 points
    Lab 43%
    Con 29%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Reform 6%
    Green 6%

    As I predicted, cons on 29 up 1, upward movement not stalled at all.

    Vindicated 😇
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,459
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest from @OpiniumResearch 30 Nov-2 Dec: Lab lead down to 14 points
    Lab 43%
    Con 29%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Reform 6%
    Green 6%

    This one’s interesting. LLG only 57% which is the first sub-60% I can remember for a while. And that’s with REF on 6%.

    So it’s left 57%, right 35%. That’s more like the mid-Boris period and probably closer to reality. I think the post-Truss anti Tory bubble is starting to subside. Or it may be an outlier.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085
    Some carers slept in care homes and left their children with family members for weeks to protect residents.

    The sacrifice they made was unprecedented.

    Former Health Secretary Matt Hancock partly holding them responsible for deaths will cause huge upset.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/matt-hancock-covid-cummings-pandemic-b2238384.html

    One dumbfounded source in the care sector tells me simply:

    “He cannot be allowed to get away with this”.

    Carers already felt let down. Now they feel blamed. Pretty explosive stuff.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1599143973846945794
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    Messi-v-very tired defenders is just not a fair fight. He has been ridiculous in these last 15 minutes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,297
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest from @OpiniumResearch 30 Nov-2 Dec: Lab lead down to 14 points
    Lab 43%
    Con 29%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Reform 6%
    Green 6%

    Still a comfortable Labour majority on those numbers but we know Opinium's methodology is different to other pollsters so it has produced a different LAB-CON split than Omnisis whose fieldwork was also Thursday and yesterday and produced a 48-25 Labour lead so quite a difference.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited December 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest from @OpiniumResearch 30 Nov-2 Dec: Lab lead down to 14 points
    Lab 43%
    Con 29%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Reform 6%
    Green 6%

    Would give Conservatives 207 MPs on the new boundaries and Labour a majority of 68.

    Better from Sunak and now closer to a Howard 2005 result than Major 1997 or Hague 2001 and much better than the annihilation Truss was heading for
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=43&LIB=8&Reform=6&Green=2&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.3&SCOTLAB=30.7&SCOTLIB=6.7&SCOTReform=0.6&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834

    I'm old enough to remember a PBer extolling the virtues of Putin as a patriot who values Judeo Christian culture.
    Thankfully he’s lowered his sights nowadays to merely wrecking the chances of football teams.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    HYUFD said:

    He does more than Wokeists but less so than Zelensky who also values liberty and freedom too
    So Putin is better than 'Wokeists' (whoever they may be) in your opinion?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    Scott_xP said:

    Some carers slept in care homes and left their children with family members for weeks to protect residents.

    The sacrifice they made was unprecedented.

    Former Health Secretary Matt Hancock partly holding them responsible for deaths will cause huge upset.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/matt-hancock-covid-cummings-pandemic-b2238384.html

    One dumbfounded source in the care sector tells me simply:

    “He cannot be allowed to get away with this”.

    Carers already felt let down. Now they feel blamed. Pretty explosive stuff.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1599143973846945794

    Simplistic rubbish. Some carers did indeed perform exceptionally. Many didn't. I was involved in several cases where a lack of basic hygiene or infection control resulted in a lot of people dying unnecessarily. It is as ridiculous to pretend otherwise as pretending that everyone who worked for the NHS was a selfless hero.

    I don't even blame them. What we had was a profoundly underfunded sector which was living on imported minimum wage employees with a patina of training or technical support which provided care on the cheap. It would be astonishing if these structural failures and weaknesses did not cause problems facing a challenge like Covid. Astonishing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,776
    Sean_F said:

    Is Brexit to blame for inflation on the Continent?
    It is an interesting question why food inflation is so high in Germany and the Netherlands compared with other European countries.

    (Separate from Brexit, which definitely has contributed to food prices being higher in the UK than they would otherwise be)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    As I predicted, cons on 29 up 1, upward movement not stalled at all.

    Vindicated 😇
    Labour on 43, just 5 above where Opinion put them on 2nd September as their own trussy bonus continues to unwind downward,
    However while LLG is one higher than in Opinions 2 sep poll, 56 to 57 - Con and reform on this poll has Tory Ref higher than what Tories got on sept 2nd 34 up to 35.

    On topic. Mike is right, and doesn’t deserve the sniping in this thread - this Opinium shows how tight it is if Torys win their reform back and blows all the Labour Landslide rampers out the water, does it not?

    It’s no point saying wait till the bad news bites the Tories won’t be advancing, because we are there, and they are.
  • stodge said:

    Still a comfortable Labour majority on those numbers but we know Opinium's methodology is different to other pollsters so it has produced a different LAB-CON split than Omnisis whose fieldwork was also Thursday and yesterday and produced a 48-25 Labour lead so quite a difference.
    Opinium are trying to factor in swingback (at least in terms of grumbly voters who will eventually go with parties but aren't saying so now). If the Conservatives do end up on 29%, we're going to need a new colourful metaphor for the state that will leave them in.

    Bagsy not doing the research.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Scott_xP said:

    Some carers slept in care homes and left their children with family members for weeks to protect residents.

    The sacrifice they made was unprecedented.

    Former Health Secretary Matt Hancock partly holding them responsible for deaths will cause huge upset.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/matt-hancock-covid-cummings-pandemic-b2238384.html

    One dumbfounded source in the care sector tells me simply:

    “He cannot be allowed to get away with this”.

    Carers already felt let down. Now they feel blamed. Pretty explosive stuff.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1599143973846945794

    It’s almost certainly the case that some care workers unknowingly infected people they cared for. They should not be blamed for that. I think, like a lot of things, government had no real idea of how the care homes operated, and that many staff worked at more than one care home.

    Ultimately, as I have repeatedly and boringly said, judge peoples decisions based on what was known at the time. Just that.
  • Fckn hell, the Telegraph is even shite at the stuff it's supposed to be good at. Drummed out of the sycophantic plastic patriots' union with immediate effect.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085
    Latest @YouGov Eurotrack poll. #EURef2 vi: Join EU: 48 (+2); Stay Out 33 (-2); Fwork: 14-15.11 (ch since 17-18.10). http://bit.ly/3ul1d9J
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    DavidL said:

    Nicola not giving up without a fight.
    Which is Sturgeon's preferred candidate?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    Fckn hell, the Telegraph is even shite at the stuff it's supposed to be good at. Drummed out of the sycophantic plastic patriots' union with immediate effect.


    Letters incoming, twelve o'clock high!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021

    As I predicted, cons on 29 up 1, upward movement not stalled at all.

    Vindicated 😇
    Of the last 6 polls published on Britain Elects 5 have the Conservatives going down and Opinium has them going up by a solitary 1%. You have a very strange definition of vindicated if you don't mind me saying so.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    Foxy said:

    So back to the days of New Labour rather than the Wokist Conservative dominated government of 2010 onwards?

    My money is that next GE that should happen.
    I'm not convinced Labour as they are at present are any less woke than the Tories!

    But New Labour wasn't desperately woke, at least not outwardly so - the mask sort of slipped at the end with the 'bigoted woman' comment. But as a conservative in the noughties, my biggest complaints - Europe aside - were economic rather than cultural: the constant belief in more government spending. I mention this not to decry New Labour's economics, but to highlight that the cultural consensus back then was actually pretty settled. At least, that's my memory of it. Feel free to trawl through the archive for my comments from the late noughties to prove me wrong.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Letters incoming, twelve o'clock high!
    In defence of the telegraph that is a mosquito being used for the same purpose.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    OllyT said:

    Of the last 6 polls published on Britain Elects 5 have the Conservatives going down and Opinium has them going up by a solitary 1%. You have a very strange definition of vindicated if you don't mind me saying so.
    You're right but... it's not worth it.

    We are now going to get a dozen or more Moonrabbit posts repeating the same mistaken point.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited December 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Would give Conservatives 207 MPs on the new boundaries and Labour a majority of 68.

    Better from Sunak and now closer to a Howard 2005 result than Major 1997 or Hague 2001 and much better than the annihilation Truss was heading for
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=43&LIB=8&Reform=6&Green=2&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.3&SCOTLAB=30.7&SCOTLIB=6.7&SCOTReform=0.6&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    You are missing something.

    What this poll is telling us, in Opinium terms we are very nearly reset back to exactly where we were just before the Trussterfuck budget - LLG just 1 different, but Tories even higher now on 35 than the 34 they were on sept 2nd if they gobble up all the reform 6!

    Labour on 43, just 5 above where Opinum put them on 2nd September as their own trussy bonus continues to unwind downward,
    However while LLG is one higher than in Opiniums 2 sep poll, 56 to 57 - Con and reform on this poll has Tory Ref higher than what Tories got on sept 2nd 34 up to 35.

    Ramping a Large Labour majority is now blown out the water. It’s just 50/50 they even get a majority.

    Opinium with their methodology are merely ahead of the game that things inevitably and rather quickly resetting back to pre Trussterfuck
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760

    Which is Sturgeon's preferred candidate?
    Anyone but Flynn. Her placeman has been kicked out against her wishes. She is not someone to leave any spoils to the victors if she can help it.
  • BozzaBozza Posts: 37

    As I predicted, cons on 29 up 1, upward movement not stalled at all.

    Vindicated 😇
    Yes, and don't forget Opinium are the gold standard from recent General Elections. Fourteen percent is clearly doable for the Conservatives in two years.

    Can Rishi manage to take it all the way? Doubtful, but were he to be replaced by Boris, a stonking General Election result beckons. The tightening of the polls is really rather exciting isn't it?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116

    You are missing something.

    What this poll is telling us, in Opinium terms we are very nearly reset back to exactly where we were just before the Trussterfuck budget - LLG just 1 different, but Tories even higher now on 35 than the 34 they were on sept 2nd if they gobble up all the reform 6!

    Labour on 43, just 5 above where Opinum put them on 2nd September as their own trussy bonus continues to unwind downward,
    However while LLG is one higher than in Opiniums 2 sep poll, 56 to 57 - Con and reform on this poll has Tory Ref higher than what Tories got on sept 2nd 34 up to 35.

    Ramping a Large Labour majority is now blown out the water. It’s just 50/50 they even get a majority.

    Opinium with their methodology are merely ahead of the game that things inevitably and rather quickly resetting back to pre Trussterfuck
    And all on just one poll! That's amazing.
  • DavidL said:

    Anyone but Flynn. Her placeman has been kicked out against her wishes. She is not someone to leave any spoils to the victors if she can help it.
    Marvellous that I can come to PB for the inside poop on SNP internal politics. I had hardly a clue who Stephen Flynn was until a couple of weeks ago and you guys knew all about him all along!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021

    You're right but... it's not worth it.

    We are now going to get a dozen or more Moonrabbit posts repeating the same mistaken point.
    I am beginning to believe that Moonrabbit is only seeing what she wants to see. Not much point arguing in that case I agree.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116
    OllyT said:

    Of the last 6 polls published on Britain Elects 5 have the Conservatives going down and Opinium has them going up by a solitary 1%. You have a very strange definition of vindicated if you don't mind me saying so.
    I think she's having a laugh. (But I'm not certain!)
  • Labour on 43, just 5 above where Opinion put them on 2nd September as their own trussy bonus continues to unwind downward,
    However while LLG is one higher than in Opinions 2 sep poll, 56 to 57 - Con and reform on this poll has Tory Ref higher than what Tories got on sept 2nd 34 up to 35.

    On topic. Mike is right, and doesn’t deserve the sniping in this thread - this Opinium shows how tight it is if Torys win their reform back and blows all the Labour Landslide rampers out the water, does it not?

    It’s no point saying wait till the bad news bites the Tories won’t be advancing, because we are there, and they are.
    Not if you take the totality of the polls;
    OllyT said:

    Of the last 6 polls published on Britain Elects 5 have the Conservatives going down and Opinium has them going up by a solitary 1%. You have a very strange definition of vindicated if you don't mind me saying so.
    Or in graphical form,



    I'm not totally convinced by the blue line going down, but it's certainly stopped going up. Eyeballing, the polls since the not-Budget have been in the range 24-30[*], the right answer is about 27 and that's not really enough.

    [*] Most of the really low values have been from People Polling; there's something systematically odd about their results.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited December 2022

    You're right but... it's not worth it.

    We are now going to get a dozen or more Moonrabbit posts repeating the same mistaken point.
    But what I am pointing to here is fact. I am comparing from the same pollster same methodology, and asking you to look how close todays poll is to the 4 point lab lead under Truss just before her budget.

    Lab just 5 above where they were, LLG just 1 above where it was pre mini budget, Tories 1 point higher than they were sept 2nd if they gobble back up the 6 for reform they had in their belly 2nd September.

    Point out and explain my mistaken point. All these are facts. The Opinium trend back to where we were pre mini budget is real, undeniable, AND VERY NEARLY THERE.

    This poll with Opinium 2nd September. Go compare!

    2 down eleven to go.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,560
    DavidL said:

    Messi-v-very tired defenders is just not a fair fight. He has been ridiculous in these last 15 minutes.

    His best spell of the game, just after the commentators suggested he should be taken off and rested.

    A pity it didn't go to extra time. He would have been unstoppable.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited December 2022
    Another day, another Moonrabbit ramping of Tory prospects.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021

    You are missing something.

    What this poll is telling us, in Opinium terms we are very nearly reset back to exactly where we were just before the Trussterfuck budget - LLG just 1 different, but Tories even higher now on 35 than the 34 they were on sept 2nd if they gobble up all the reform 6!

    Labour on 43, just 5 above where Opinum put them on 2nd September as their own trussy bonus continues to unwind downward,
    However while LLG is one higher than in Opiniums 2 sep poll, 56 to 57 - Con and reform on this poll has Tory Ref higher than what Tories got on sept 2nd 34 up to 35.

    Ramping a Large Labour majority is now blown out the water. It’s just 50/50 they even get a majority.

    Opinium with their methodology are merely ahead of the game that things inevitably and rather quickly resetting back to pre Trussterfuck
    Opinium aren't reporting current opinion, they are asking for voters' views and then guessing what they will then do when the next election comes around. If 29% is what the Tories are getting after swingback is taken into account then Labour will be delighted.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085
    Support for elements of a Swiss-style EU deal https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1599143200567963648/photo/1
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639

    I also suspect the ticket price is slightly lower than the EPL ticket price.*

    *Im glad that the womens game is taking off. It just doesn’t need comparison to the mens for validation.
    Yes, it is. The women's game is priced at what I would pay to watch a football match. The men's game is priced at roughly 7 times that.
    But the quality of the product is not, nowadays, 7 times better. For the casual viewer like me, the men's game is maybe slightly better (maybe 1.5x better, rather than the 7x better the ticket price implies), but that's balanced out by almost every single male footballer being very hard to like.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,560

    Not if you take the totality of the polls; Or in graphical form,



    I'm not totally convinced by the blue line going down, but it's certainly stopped going up. Eyeballing, the polls since the not-Budget have been in the range 24-30[*], the right answer is about 27 and that's not really enough.

    [*] Most of the really low values have been from People Polling; there's something systematically odd about their results.
    Tories losing votes to ReFuk ever since Sunak became PM. I wonder what is behind that exodus of the Gammonati?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021
    Roger said:

    I think she's having a laugh. (But I'm not certain!)
    Sorry I thought she was being serious, my mistake.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Bozza said:

    Yes, and don't forget Opinium are the gold standard from recent General Elections. Fourteen percent is clearly doable for the Conservatives in two years.

    Can Rishi manage to take it all the way? Doubtful, but were he to be replaced by Boris, a stonking General Election result beckons. The tightening of the polls is really rather exciting isn't it?
    Not exciting for me, I yearn for the Tories out till they come back as Conservatives again. This clueless rump have lost their soul.

    But facts are facts. By comparing the trend on 1 pollster I am comparing apples with apples. If Sunak and Braverman got some wins on the South Coast invasion, we will likely be back to the 4 point lead Opinium gave Labour on eve of Mini budget.

    Take two off this Labour score and give it to Lib Dems, just 2 more off and give to cons, and give cons just 4 of the six they lost to reform last month, and Opinium gives you a 4% Labour lead.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited December 2022

    In defence of the telegraph that is a mosquito being used for the same purpose.
    Er, that is not a fighter or fighter-bomber (angled windscreen) and probably not a photo reconnaissance machine (no dorsal blown bulges in the canopy, though that is not total) - what really confirms it is a bomber is the serial.

    https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/71231

    Just the usual Brexiter accuracy*, following the infamous UKIP pics of Spitfires flown by Poles during WW2 used to denounce Polish (etc) immigration.

    *Edit: Not you, I hasten to add, but the DT. (You're right, some Mossies were used for PR, just not that one.)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,560
    Cookie said:

    Yes, it is. The women's game is priced at what I would pay to watch a football match. The men's game is priced at roughly 7 times that.
    But the quality of the product is not, nowadays, 7 times better. For the casual viewer like me, the men's game is maybe slightly better (maybe 1.5x better, rather than the 7x better the ticket price implies), but that's balanced out by almost every single male footballer being very hard to like.
    Did it end like the Not the Nine O'clock News women's football sketch?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116

    Another day, another Moonrabbit ramping of Tory prospects.

    "When a wise man points at the moon only a fool looks at the finger"
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,317
    HYUFD said:

    On the basis he told me to go to Russia for saying something critical of Wokeism
    Well that is completely irrational. He said it not because he is Woke but because you posted positive comments about Russia.
This discussion has been closed.