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Sunak vs. Starmer – the polling trend – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,220
edited December 2022 in General
imageSunak vs. Starmer – the polling trend – politicalbetting.com

All three charts are from the latest Redfield & Wilson poll which was published yesterday.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    First as SKS will be at the next election.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    And remember Thurrock is a Tory run council.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048
    So a 5% lead for Starmer over Sunak on best PM polling much closer than the headline voting intention polls.

    I remain of the view a hung parliament is certainly still possible. The Labour lead now for Starmer is about the same as the Tory lead for Cameron in 2008 but ex Chancellor PM Brown narrowed the gap. Maybe ex Chancellor PM Sunak will too even if Starmer like Cameron ends up with most seats?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,176
    Third, like ?
  • HYUFD said:

    So a 5% lead for Starmer over Sunak on best PM polling much closer than the headline voting intention polls.

    I remain of the view a hung parliament is certainly still possible. The Labour lead now for Starmer is about the same as the Tory lead for Cameron in 2008 but ex Chancellor PM Brown narrowed the gap. Maybe ex Chancellor PM Sunak will too even if Starmer like Cameron ends up with most seats?

    I agree. The challenge for LAB to move from the GE2019 MP total of 202 to 326 for a majority is just too great.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,320
    The Tories have Thurrocked the country.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,699

    The Tories have Thurrocked the country.

    Amusing. Covid played a big part too.
  • Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    We can analyse the Starmer vs Sunak dynamic all we want. The issue is with the Conservative Party brand.

    We’re all just waiting for the inevitable now
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822

    Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.

    What have they said? That Wales will win under AV?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519

    Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.

    Yma o Hyd is a banger to be fair
  • Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.

    Yma o Hyd is a banger to be fair
    Based on lies.

    Apparently all Thatcher's fault that the Welsh voted against devolution in the 1970s.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,207

    I've done some very rough numbers on onshore wind to power all domestic energy use

    I chose Scout Moor wind farm pretty much at random. It's quite old; was started fifteen years ago. So some prices will have gone up a lot, but I'd guess some prices would come down if we did a huge program of making and building this stuff ourselves

    Scout Moor cost £50m for 26 turbines, about £2m per turbine

    It produces the current total energy use of 40,000 homes, or about 1,500 per turbine

    When running at maximum capacity, a single turbine will provide peak electricity demand for about 1,000 homes

    When we triple total electricity usage per household by turning to electric heating and cars, then one turbine will provide the annual energy for about 500 homes

    This works out quite well with peak electricity demand probably doubling to take account of heating and lights in winter

    But this assumes perfect energy storage

    We're nowhere near that, so I think we need to nearly double the number of turbines to get to 300 homes per turbine

    And everyone would need a battery room at home

    How much would a 100kWh battery cost? That would power the average household for almost a fortnight on current demand

    So, say price per turbine is now £3m, but with no increase in efficiency from 2007, it would cost about £10,000 per household to get their turbine built, and about the same for the battery room (I'm completely guessing there)

    So about £20,000 per household for pretty much free energy (obviously will have to pay toward maintenance and replacements eventually)

    Not much over half a trillion to make us totally onshore wind powered

    Done over ten years that wouldn't be totally insane

    And we obviously don't need to do it all with onshore wind. Or have every house with a battery room

    IIRC a little while back, Tesla were charging $900,000 for a container full of battery storage - 3MWh.

    A 100KWh is 1/30 of that.....
    So £10k would get you four or five days of storage at current average electricity use. Not much at all in winter when it's all electric

    I guess we're going to have to turn Chile inside out for its lithium and copper
    Why not local plants electrolysing water into hydrogen and oxygen, storing the hydrogen short term, then using it via fuel cells to generate electricity when demand exceeds wind power?
    Hydrogen for power storage is somewhere on the 20%-40% efficiency level. You waste most of the power.

    Batteries are over 90%
  • ydoethur said:

    Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.

    What have they said? That Wales will win under AV?
    Said Thatcher was responsible for the devolution loss in the 70s then she wanted to close the mines for spite (ignoring the fact Labour closed most of them) but hey ho.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048
    edited November 2022
    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    edited November 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.

    What have they said? That Wales will win under AV?
    Said Thatcher was responsible for the devolution loss in the 70s then she wanted to close the mines for spite (ignoring the fact Labour closed most of them) but hey ho.
    I would have said George Cunningham was the prime saboteur, although his influence was rather more important in Scotland.

    The rest is the usual rubbish, but it is quite common in Wales. Almost as common as it is in Yorkshire.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,176
    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Leicester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    And the whole country is now minority christian (even including the many who are just pretending!) for the first time. Rejoice!
  • HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Leicester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    True this



  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited November 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Leicester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    But it's wrong, afaik, and as I mentioned on the previous thread. London for instance is minority "white british" as self-declared on the census, because many people think it means "indigenous". A large amount of white citizens who are actually British, often 2nd or even 3rd generation from various european countries, don't know what to write, because of this.

    It needs to be re-thought, not least also to discourage bigots from both sides of the political and ethnic divide who also think exclusively "white=british".
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    Who cares?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Leicester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    True this



    Don't you think you're a bit harsh to lunatics?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.

    What have they said? That Wales will win under AV?
    Said Thatcher was responsible for the devolution loss in the 70s then she wanted to close the mines for spite (ignoring the fact Labour closed most of them) but hey ho.
    I would have said George Cunningham was the prime saboteur, although his influence was rather more important in Scotland.

    The rest is the usual rubbish, but it is quite common in Wales. Almost as common as it is in Yorkshire.
    Not in this part of Yorkshire.

    We really should talk about the thing Thatcher closed down a lot.

    Grammar schools, she deserves sainthood for that alone.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807

    I've done some very rough numbers on onshore wind to power all domestic energy use

    I chose Scout Moor wind farm pretty much at random. It's quite old; was started fifteen years ago. So some prices will have gone up a lot, but I'd guess some prices would come down if we did a huge program of making and building this stuff ourselves

    Scout Moor cost £50m for 26 turbines, about £2m per turbine

    It produces the current total energy use of 40,000 homes, or about 1,500 per turbine

    When running at maximum capacity, a single turbine will provide peak electricity demand for about 1,000 homes

    When we triple total electricity usage per household by turning to electric heating and cars, then one turbine will provide the annual energy for about 500 homes

    This works out quite well with peak electricity demand probably doubling to take account of heating and lights in winter

    But this assumes perfect energy storage

    We're nowhere near that, so I think we need to nearly double the number of turbines to get to 300 homes per turbine

    And everyone would need a battery room at home

    How much would a 100kWh battery cost? That would power the average household for almost a fortnight on current demand

    So, say price per turbine is now £3m, but with no increase in efficiency from 2007, it would cost about £10,000 per household to get their turbine built, and about the same for the battery room (I'm completely guessing there)

    So about £20,000 per household for pretty much free energy (obviously will have to pay toward maintenance and replacements eventually)

    Not much over half a trillion to make us totally onshore wind powered

    Done over ten years that wouldn't be totally insane

    And we obviously don't need to do it all with onshore wind. Or have every house with a battery room

    IIRC a little while back, Tesla were charging $900,000 for a container full of battery storage - 3MWh.

    A 100KWh is 1/30 of that.....
    So £10k would get you four or five days of storage at current average electricity use. Not much at all in winter when it's all electric

    I guess we're going to have to turn Chile inside out for its lithium and copper
    Why not local plants electrolysing water into hydrogen and oxygen, storing the hydrogen short term, then using it via fuel cells to generate electricity when demand exceeds wind power?
    Hydrogen for power storage is somewhere on the 20%-40% efficiency level. You waste most of the power.

    Batteries are over 90%
    Sure but it's about capacity, not efficiency. Specific energy of hydrogen = 120MJ/kg; specific energy of a lithium-ion battery = 0.36–0.875 MJ/kg.

    Put it another way, how much battery capacity would be needed to store the UK electricity needs for several weeks through a potential worse-case calm period?
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Leicester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    True this



    Don't you think you're a bit harsh to lunatics?
    Nah.

    I cannot imagine why Farage likes Donald Trump so much.
  • The Tories have Thurrocked the country.

    Amusing. Covid played a big part too.
    And Social Care.

    The failure to find that properly (Dilnot was over a decade ago) has left the bill on Council Tax.

    And the spreading midriff of social care spending has been struggling to fit into the pre-lockdown trousers of capped Council Tax for a while now.

    Thurrock was just one of those trouser extending buttons going ping in public. It's bad, but the worst sin is being caught.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,519
    C'mon England
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited November 2022
    My goodness, the British newspaper are sh*t these days:

    From the Guardian:

    "Explainer: Shamanism, pagans and wiccans: trends from the England and Wales census

    1) Shamanism is on the rise

    Shamanism is expanding faster than any other religion, with the number of people saying they practise it rising from 650 in 2011 to 8,000 in 2021 in England and Wales. The result might prove controversial, as the Shamanism UK website asserts “it is not a religion, more an authentic expression of mankind’s spirituality”.

    2) Pagans and wiccans are becoming more established

    More established are pagans, who number 74,000 people (up from 57,000 in 2011) and who gather most in Ceredigion, Cornwall and Somerset, and wiccans, who number 13,000. Wicca is sometimes described as a witchcraft tradition whose roots lie in pre-Christian religious traditions, folklore, folk witchcraft and ritual magic."
    Some tw*t at the Guardian has received a government press release and looked stuff up on the internet! This is assuming the above waffle wasn't in the PR already under "Notes for editors", after some tw*t working for the government did the same.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,176
    Taking god save the Q King for ourselves always feels a little bit wrong.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    I didn't know @TSE was a football reporter for the Beeb:

    I predicted Wales would finish bottom of Group B, and it looks like I am going to be right.

    This could end up being quite a big scoreline but I actually think England might stop when they get to three goals because they will feel sorry for the Welsh.
  • ydoethur said:

    I didn't know @TSE was a football reporter for the Beeb:

    I predicted Wales would finish bottom of Group B, and it looks like I am going to be right.

    This could end up being quite a big scoreline but I actually think England might stop when they get to three goals because they will feel sorry for the Welsh.

    Nonsense, as if I'd feel sorry for the Welsh.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,715

    C'mon England

    👍
    I'm confident. It's a football match not a singing contest
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,176
    ydoethur said:

    I didn't know @TSE was a football reporter for the Beeb:

    I predicted Wales would finish bottom of Group B, and it looks like I am going to be right.

    This could end up being quite a big scoreline but I actually think England might stop when they get to three goals because they will feel sorry for the Welsh.

    Wales will be hoping that’s a quote from Leondamus…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822

    ydoethur said:

    I didn't know @TSE was a football reporter for the Beeb:

    I predicted Wales would finish bottom of Group B, and it looks like I am going to be right.

    This could end up being quite a big scoreline but I actually think England might stop when they get to three goals because they will feel sorry for the Welsh.

    Nonsense, as if I'd feel sorry for the Welsh.
    The reporter was saying England's footballers would feel sorry, not that he did!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,207
    edited November 2022

    I've done some very rough numbers on onshore wind to power all domestic energy use

    I chose Scout Moor wind farm pretty much at random. It's quite old; was started fifteen years ago. So some prices will have gone up a lot, but I'd guess some prices would come down if we did a huge program of making and building this stuff ourselves

    Scout Moor cost £50m for 26 turbines, about £2m per turbine

    It produces the current total energy use of 40,000 homes, or about 1,500 per turbine

    When running at maximum capacity, a single turbine will provide peak electricity demand for about 1,000 homes

    When we triple total electricity usage per household by turning to electric heating and cars, then one turbine will provide the annual energy for about 500 homes

    This works out quite well with peak electricity demand probably doubling to take account of heating and lights in winter

    But this assumes perfect energy storage

    We're nowhere near that, so I think we need to nearly double the number of turbines to get to 300 homes per turbine

    And everyone would need a battery room at home

    How much would a 100kWh battery cost? That would power the average household for almost a fortnight on current demand

    So, say price per turbine is now £3m, but with no increase in efficiency from 2007, it would cost about £10,000 per household to get their turbine built, and about the same for the battery room (I'm completely guessing there)

    So about £20,000 per household for pretty much free energy (obviously will have to pay toward maintenance and replacements eventually)

    Not much over half a trillion to make us totally onshore wind powered

    Done over ten years that wouldn't be totally insane

    And we obviously don't need to do it all with onshore wind. Or have every house with a battery room

    IIRC a little while back, Tesla were charging $900,000 for a container full of battery storage - 3MWh.

    A 100KWh is 1/30 of that.....
    So £10k would get you four or five days of storage at current average electricity use. Not much at all in winter when it's all electric

    I guess we're going to have to turn Chile inside out for its lithium and copper
    Why not local plants electrolysing water into hydrogen and oxygen, storing the hydrogen short term, then using it via fuel cells to generate electricity when demand exceeds wind power?
    Hydrogen for power storage is somewhere on the 20%-40% efficiency level. You waste most of the power.

    Batteries are over 90%
    Sure but it's about capacity, not efficiency. Specific energy of hydrogen = 120MJ/kg; specific energy of a lithium-ion battery = 0.36–0.875 MJ/kg.

    Put it another way, how much battery capacity would be needed to store the UK electricity needs for several weeks through a potential worse-case calm period?
    Storing hydrogen is fun. And rather expensive.

    Which is why batteries have comprehensively defeated hydrogen for storage, so far. And batteries are getting cheaper all the time.

    EDIT - other storage system may well win out for bulk. There are other battery chemistries, for example. But hydrogen from electrolysis is one of the worst options.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Leicester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    And the whole country is now minority christian (even including the many who are just pretending!) for the first time. Rejoice!
    I look forward to many 'Christian's still outnumber those with no faith' posts, but it isn't as stirring as 'It's 50-25 in favour of christians'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    So he trusts the stats now, already showing those areas are not majority white, but even though the ONS released those they wouldn't do so again?
  • I must be one of the few, with two grandparents from England, one apparently and originally celtic, and one continental european, who would prefer a British football team.

    Not too popular a view in Scotland and Wales, I know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.

    What have they said? That Wales will win under AV?
    Said Thatcher was responsible for the devolution loss in the 70s then she wanted to close the mines for spite (ignoring the fact Labour closed most of them) but hey ho.
    I would have said George Cunningham was the prime saboteur, although his influence was rather more important in Scotland.

    The rest is the usual rubbish, but it is quite common in Wales. Almost as common as it is in Yorkshire.
    For someone who was a genuinely powerful and influential figure its incredible how much more powerful and influential Thatcher was in the lazy takes and/or dreams of those mentally stuck in the 70s and 80s.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,995
    Evening all :)

    Once again, doing the nation a favour and avoiding the football.

    The situation at Thurrock has been doing the rounds in local Government circles for some time. They've not yet issued a Section 114 notice which is a good sign of a council in real financial trouble.

    How have they got here? Councils are remarkably constrained as to how they can generate income outside the usual cash-cows that are residents or businesses. Some have gone into the Investment Property market using money loaned from the Public Works Loan Board (PWLB) and those who got in first and quick around 2009-10 have been able to build a decent portfolio but the rental yields aren't spectacular and it's not much of a help.

    Other Councils have been more inventive in terms of seeking out opportunities but you have to do your due diligence (or should at any rate). One of the problems can be Councillors who try to persuade Officers going down this route is a sure-fire winner without risk. Council officers can and do recommend caution but ultimately if Councillors want to do something Officers have to comply.

    From what I hear, the leadership of Thurrock Council (both Officer and Member) have a lot of questions to answer - perhaps the relationship had become too cosy or too dominated by one side or the other.

    I suspect local council finances won't be far from the headlines over the next few months.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,681
    edited November 2022

    I've done some very rough numbers on onshore wind to power all domestic energy use

    I chose Scout Moor wind farm pretty much at random. It's quite old; was started fifteen years ago. So some prices will have gone up a lot, but I'd guess some prices would come down if we did a huge program of making and building this stuff ourselves

    Scout Moor cost £50m for 26 turbines, about £2m per turbine

    It produces the current total energy use of 40,000 homes, or about 1,500 per turbine

    When running at maximum capacity, a single turbine will provide peak electricity demand for about 1,000 homes

    When we triple total electricity usage per household by turning to electric heating and cars, then one turbine will provide the annual energy for about 500 homes

    This works out quite well with peak electricity demand probably doubling to take account of heating and lights in winter

    But this assumes perfect energy storage

    We're nowhere near that, so I think we need to nearly double the number of turbines to get to 300 homes per turbine

    And everyone would need a battery room at home

    How much would a 100kWh battery cost? That would power the average household for almost a fortnight on current demand

    So, say price per turbine is now £3m, but with no increase in efficiency from 2007, it would cost about £10,000 per household to get their turbine built, and about the same for the battery room (I'm completely guessing there)

    So about £20,000 per household for pretty much free energy (obviously will have to pay toward maintenance and replacements eventually)

    Not much over half a trillion to make us totally onshore wind powered

    Done over ten years that wouldn't be totally insane

    And we obviously don't need to do it all with onshore wind. Or have every house with a battery room

    IIRC a little while back, Tesla were charging $900,000 for a container full of battery storage - 3MWh.

    A 100KWh is 1/30 of that.....
    So £10k would get you four or five days of storage at current average electricity use. Not much at all in winter when it's all electric

    I guess we're going to have to turn Chile inside out for its lithium and copper
    Why not local plants electrolysing water into hydrogen and oxygen, storing the hydrogen short term, then using it via fuel cells to generate electricity when demand exceeds wind power?
    Hydrogen for power storage is somewhere on the 20%-40% efficiency level. You waste most of the power.

    Batteries are over 90%
    Sure but it's about capacity, not efficiency. Specific energy of hydrogen = 120MJ/kg; specific energy of a lithium-ion battery = 0.36–0.875 MJ/kg.

    Put it another way, how much battery capacity would be needed to store the UK electricity needs for several weeks through a potential worse-case calm period?
    Hydrogen is great energy density per kg, but it's also not very dense and it's hard to store.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    HYUFD said:

    So a 5% lead for Starmer over Sunak on best PM polling much closer than the headline voting intention polls.

    I remain of the view a hung parliament is certainly still possible. The Labour lead now for Starmer is about the same as the Tory lead for Cameron in 2008 but ex Chancellor PM Brown narrowed the gap. Maybe ex Chancellor PM Sunak will too even if Starmer like Cameron ends up with most seats?

    I agree. The challenge for LAB to move from the GE2019 MP total of 202 to 326 for a majority is just too great.
    I used to agree, and it's possible I'm just swept up in current fervour, but it just doesn't seem unlikely anymore. It just feels like the government has no answer to anything right now - they cannot get their shit together even after taking the unprecedented step of junking a PM after 45 days.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Can't help feeling that this is going to England's way in the second half with their superior fitness, stronger bench and the age of some of Wales' key players. But it's certainly not looking like a walk over right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Utter political bollocks on this BBC coverage of Wales v England match,

    Disband the BBC now.

    Yma o Hyd is a banger to be fair
    Based on lies.
    De rigueur for political/national songs I'd think.
  • 🔵Stuart Andrew, minister for sport, could be seen wearing the One Love armband in the stands prior to the match between Wales and England



    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1597671750351073280
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    🔵Stuart Andrew, minister for sport, could be seen wearing the One Love armband in the stands prior to the match between Wales and England



    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1597671750351073280

    What an arrogant swine. Under the modern definition of doing something another person doesn't like being arrogance.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited November 2022
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    So he trusts the stats now, already showing those areas are not majority white, but even though the ONS released those they wouldn't do so again?
    Except they don't even show that, as far as I know.

    I even prefer England-Wales football matches to hearing more about Herr Faragae.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,207
    And now for something completely familiar

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    So he trusts the stats now, already showing those areas are not majority white, but even though the ONS released those they wouldn't do so again?
    Except they don't even show that, as far as I know.

    I even prefer England-Wales football matches to hearing more from Herr Faragae.
    I'm astonished to learn his argument was not strictly accurate.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    For anyone wondering, the USA are well on top of Iran, but look toothless up front.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,207
    Admissions R

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,207
    edited November 2022
    Deaths

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,207
    In hospital

    image
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,898
    FPT:

    If you are opposed to onshore wind farms then Putin thanks you for your support.

    If you are opposed to fracking, coal extraction, and North sea oil exploration, he's a lot more thankful for yours.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,207
    MV beds

    image
  • The West Saxons struggling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:


    Gareth Davies
    Actually Verified

    @Gareth_Davies09
    BREAKING: Thurrock Council reveals £500m black hole caused by failed investments - the biggest funding gap ever reported by a UK local authority

    https://twitter.com/Gareth_Davies09/status/1597640990411853824

    Thurrock's total annual budget is about £150m a year.

    £275m of taxpayer's money gone on high risk investments.
    Tory waste and incompetence.
    Have they been investing in FTX, BlockFi, etc?
    Some info here, in the thread in which the tweet posted above lies.

    https://twitter.com/Gareth_Davies09/status/1597640990411853824
    What I don't understand at all is why local councils are investing money directly?! Surely they should just stick it all into fairly safe accumulator ETFs so they can call the money in easily when they need to spend it on services.
    Full report at https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2022-11-29/thurrock-council-reveals-500m-black-hole-caused-by-ruinous-business-deals

    Where were the auditors of Thurrock?
    The council's accounts to March 2020 were audited, but the accounts to March 2021 have yet to be finalised as the audit is not complete! This suggests that problems should have been known at least a year ago when the 2020/21 accounts were delayed.
    I think many auditers are trying to get right out of the local government market, which presumably won't help.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,323
    @FLVoiceNews
    WATCH: Ron DeSantis says Apple removing @elonmusk's Twitter from app store warrants Congressional response

    "That would be a huge, huge mistake, and it would be a really raw exercise of monopolistic power that I think would merit a response from the United States Congress."


    https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1597619967062863874
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    Who cares?
    Some in the white working class he is targeting will care.

    Same explains the rise of Trump, Meloni, Le Pen or Sweden Democrats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,048
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Leicester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    And the whole country is now minority christian (even including the many who are just pretending!) for the first time. Rejoice!
    Christians still the plurality though and a majority of the Abrahamic religions ie Christianity, Islam or Judaism
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So a 5% lead for Starmer over Sunak on best PM polling much closer than the headline voting intention polls.

    I remain of the view a hung parliament is certainly still possible. The Labour lead now for Starmer is about the same as the Tory lead for Cameron in 2008 but ex Chancellor PM Brown narrowed the gap. Maybe ex Chancellor PM Sunak will too even if Starmer like Cameron ends up with most seats?

    I agree. The challenge for LAB to move from the GE2019 MP total of 202 to 326 for a majority is just too great.
    I used to agree, and it's possible I'm just swept up in current fervour, but it just doesn't seem unlikely anymore. It just feels like the government has no answer to anything right now - they cannot get their shit together even after taking the unprecedented step of junking a PM after 45 days.
    A lot depends on what really happened in 2019. If Labour's seat tally was significantly depressed by anti-Corbyn tactical voting, their starting point isn't as bad as it looks.

    But 50 SNP seats is an awfully big handicap. There's a decent space where the Conservatives lose badly but Labour don't really win.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822

    🔵Stuart Andrew, minister for sport, could be seen wearing the One Love armband in the stands prior to the match between Wales and England



    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1597671750351073280

    Because he's a Tory he must be showing Islamophobia and cultural insensitivity.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,995
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So a 5% lead for Starmer over Sunak on best PM polling much closer than the headline voting intention polls.

    I remain of the view a hung parliament is certainly still possible. The Labour lead now for Starmer is about the same as the Tory lead for Cameron in 2008 but ex Chancellor PM Brown narrowed the gap. Maybe ex Chancellor PM Sunak will too even if Starmer like Cameron ends up with most seats?

    I agree. The challenge for LAB to move from the GE2019 MP total of 202 to 326 for a majority is just too great.
    I used to agree, and it's possible I'm just swept up in current fervour, but it just doesn't seem unlikely anymore. It just feels like the government has no answer to anything right now - they cannot get their shit together even after taking the unprecedented step of junking a PM after 45 days.
    Is it that much of a challenge? Cameron won 96 seats (notionally) in 2010. If Starmer does that, he's on 298 and the Conservatives are on 269 and, short of a deal with the SNP which I would never rule out, out (as it were).

    We are around two years from polling and the current crop of polls show a steady 20-23% Labour lead with the Labour-Conservative combined vote share between 73 and 77%.

    Putting some of these numbers through Baxter and today's YouGov would mean a Labour majority of between 274 and 340 on the new boundaries (depending on the amount of tactical voting). The swing from Conservative to Labour is around 16% across the polls. R&W have a 20% swing in the Blue Wall (16% in the Red Wall) suggesting Labour may be piling up more votes in safer Conservative areas in the south.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    edited November 2022
    Pulisic scores for USA. Now qualifying.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    dixiedean said:

    Pulisic scores for USA. Now top of the group.

    Wrong.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So a 5% lead for Starmer over Sunak on best PM polling much closer than the headline voting intention polls.

    I remain of the view a hung parliament is certainly still possible. The Labour lead now for Starmer is about the same as the Tory lead for Cameron in 2008 but ex Chancellor PM Brown narrowed the gap. Maybe ex Chancellor PM Sunak will too even if Starmer like Cameron ends up with most seats?

    I agree. The challenge for LAB to move from the GE2019 MP total of 202 to 326 for a majority is just too great.
    I used to agree, and it's possible I'm just swept up in current fervour, but it just doesn't seem unlikely anymore. It just feels like the government has no answer to anything right now - they cannot get their shit together even after taking the unprecedented step of junking a PM after 45 days.
    Is it that much of a challenge? Cameron won 96 seats (notionally) in 2010. If Starmer does that, he's on 298 and the Conservatives are on 269 and, short of a deal with the SNP which I would never rule out, out (as it were).

    We are around two years from polling and the current crop of polls show a steady 20-23% Labour lead with the Labour-Conservative combined vote share between 73 and 77%.

    Putting some of these numbers through Baxter and today's YouGov would mean a Labour majority of between 274 and 340 on the new boundaries (depending on the amount of tactical voting). The swing from Conservative to Labour is around 16% across the polls. R&W have a 20% swing in the Blue Wall (16% in the Red Wall) suggesting Labour may be piling up more votes in safer Conservative areas in the south.
    A Conservative/SNP alliance?

    Why would they deal with a bunch of small-minded xenophobes obsessed with one issue that was officially out to bed for good ages ago and are clapped out by a long time in office?

    Which party I am talking about there I leave to your imagination...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulisic scores for USA. Now top of the group.

    Wrong.
    Yep. Just corrected. Was thinking of if Iran had scored
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,699
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulisic scores for USA. Now top of the group.

    Wrong.
    Sneaky edit there…
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    dixiedean said:

    For anyone wondering, the USA are well on top of Iran, but look toothless up front.

    Ha
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,207

    HYUFD said:

    So a 5% lead for Starmer over Sunak on best PM polling much closer than the headline voting intention polls.

    I remain of the view a hung parliament is certainly still possible. The Labour lead now for Starmer is about the same as the Tory lead for Cameron in 2008 but ex Chancellor PM Brown narrowed the gap. Maybe ex Chancellor PM Sunak will too even if Starmer like Cameron ends up with most seats?

    I agree. The challenge for LAB to move from the GE2019 MP total of 202 to 326 for a majority is just too great.
    I'm not so sure. I think that Sunak is much more popular than his party - the John Major situation.

    I don't see that being reversed with the current crop of Conservative MPs. That all points to 1997 to me, rather than 1992
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    For anyone wondering, the USA are well on top of Iran, but look toothless up front.

    Ha
    It's not going well for me is it?
    On top of that I took the tip of Iran to win the group!
    We can turn it round second half, lads...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929

    The West Saxons struggling.

    You've lost me there.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Doesn't look like either England or Wales will be winning the world cup.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,699

    The West Saxons struggling.

    You've lost me there.
    When is the Sweden vs Scotland match?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited November 2022
    A revived all-Britain team, also representing a country back in the EU, to win the World Cup in 2036.

    Before that, Wales to win the Euros in 2034.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,092
    Reassuring to see England can be shit on BBC too.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929

    The West Saxons struggling.

    You've lost me there.
    When is the Sweden vs Scotland match?
    Curling?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,898
    edited November 2022
    FPT
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We need to build tidal power plants, because they're reliable, unlike wind farms. At some times yesterday wind was producing about 2% of power compared to 60% a couple of days earlier.

    Yes yes yes to this. Financially, to the consumer, wind doesn't make sense. Farms are getting thrown up because it's guaranteed money. Tidal you would never have to pay any constraint payments, and I wonder if that has gone into the civil service calculations on the matter.
    I'm a proponent of tidal, but this argument is just nonsense.
    Onshore wind is the cheapest way to generate electricity in the UK, constraint payments (with which you seem strangely obsessed) included.
    Any significant tidal capacity will take a decade or more (once approved) to build; onshore wind a year or so.
    @Nigelb I would be interested to see the figures you are working this out from. I assume that you are going off today's grossly inflated gas price, but even then.
    Quite apart from the headline figures, in recent times the grid has deliberately switched to constraining gas not wind, so a large portion of the constraint payments are going to gas providers, but they are still costs relating to the intermittency of wind.

    The discussion about power storage in the previous thread was an interesting one. There are other ways of storing power, like this pumped storage project:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57510870

    This is stalled because nobody is investing in it. How quickly would it be invested in and built if wind providers were not getting constraint payments? *That* is why they are so important.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,972
    That wasn't offside in the USA match?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,995
    ydoethur said:


    A Conservative/SNP alliance?

    Why would they deal with a bunch of small-minded xenophobes obsessed with one issue that was officially out to bed for good ages ago and are clapped out by a long time in office?

    Which party I am talking about there I leave to your imagination...

    I know, I know - I've been pilloried repeatedly for even daring to suggest such an idea as it seems the ultimate heresy but as the song goes, I can't get it out of my head.

    I've often said the status quo suits both the Conservatives and SNP quite well - would Sturgeon find it as easy to demonise a Labour Government in Westminster as she can a Conservative Government?
  • A revived all-Britain team, also representing a country back in the EU, to win the World Cup in 2036.

    Before that, Wales to win the Euros in 2034.

    More chance of the latter than the former. :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    edited November 2022
    stodge said:

    ydoethur said:


    A Conservative/SNP alliance?

    Why would they deal with a bunch of small-minded xenophobes obsessed with one issue that was officially out to bed for good ages ago and are clapped out by a long time in office?

    Which party I am talking about there I leave to your imagination...

    I know, I know - I've been pilloried repeatedly for even daring to suggest such an idea as it seems the ultimate heresy but as the song goes, I can't get it out of my head.

    I've often said the status quo suits both the Conservatives and SNP quite well - would Sturgeon find it as easy to demonise a Labour Government in Westminster as she can a Conservative Government?
    No.

    Would she retain her leadership for five minutes or the SNP a single seat at the following election if they propped up the Tories?

    Also no.

    This would suit the SNP (and her) even less well.

    The minor detail that the SNP are very like the Tories in many crucial respects makes it all the more important to keep a healthy distance from them.
  • ydoethur said:

    🔵Stuart Andrew, minister for sport, could be seen wearing the One Love armband in the stands prior to the match between Wales and England



    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1597671750351073280

    Because he's a Tory he must be showing Islamophobia and cultural insensitivity.
    He's a gayer so it is all good.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    Hmm why aren't they showing the Weah offside var graphic
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822

    The West Saxons struggling.

    They were too busy building offshore wind farms to train properly.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,984
    edited November 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    Has Farage now dropped all pretence of not being racist?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    HYUFD said:

    Farage video on London, Manchester and Birmingham now all being minority white cities.

    He says ONS plans to hide the true stats in future

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1597626503432671233?s=20&t=jAJ0CAJLtPRuOSagpcLbOA

    Has Farage now dropped all pretence of being racist?
    I don't think his racism was ever a pretence.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    USA with a proper number nine would be a decent side.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,092

    The West Saxons struggling.

    You've lost me there.
    Stuart reminds me of some of the Manchester City supporting children I knew at school whose loathing for Manchester United was such they couldn't even bring themselves to use the term "Manchester United" and referred to them as Trafford Rangers or some such.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    One for @Sunil_Prasannan - a small piece of track that you can rarely access being used between Christmas and the new year https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/unusual-use-of-london-overground-track-over-christmas-59078/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    Gareth Bale off at half-time.
  • Cookie said:

    The West Saxons struggling.

    You've lost me there.
    Stuart reminds me of some of the Manchester City supporting children I knew at school whose loathing for Manchester United was such they couldn't even bring themselves to use the term "Manchester United" and referred to them as Trafford Rangers or some such.
    English premiership:

    2. man c
    ….
    5. Trafford Rangers
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Bale off, forgot he was on to be honest.
  • DavidL said:

    Bale off, forgot he was on to be honest.

    Hun fan tonite David?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,822
    DavidL said:

    Bale off, forgot he was on to be honest.

    Did he make hay?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Cookie said:

    The West Saxons struggling.

    You've lost me there.
    Stuart reminds me of some of the Manchester City supporting children I knew at school whose loathing for Manchester United was such they couldn't even bring themselves to use the term "Manchester United" and referred to them as Trafford Rangers or some such.
    A friend of mine won't say the word that begins Tot and ends ham.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    DavidL said:

    Bale off, forgot he was on to be honest.

    Hun fan tonite David?
    Fairly neutral to be honest.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,176
    Goal !!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Superb goal.
  • Rashford 👍
This discussion has been closed.