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Who’s Fooling Whom? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • DrkB said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Politicalbetting would be a far better place if people stopped writing articles and comments about trans issues.

    It's irrelevant to politics and it brings out the worst in the hard right wingers and trans exclusionary radical feminists.

    Let people get on with their lives and stop f-ing obsessing about an irrelevant topic in the grand scheme.

    "People who disagree with me should shut up".
    She's an intelligent poster most of the time but I'm afraid this is how her generation is wired. It's part of the insidious effects of Woke.

    As far as they're concerned the issue isn't up for discussion.
    It does feel a bit like the current reorganisation of twitter is the beginning of the end of 'woke'. They overreached.
    Woke will definitely end at some point because they will overreach, and society will tire of it, but it won't happen automatically.

    The lunacy has to constantly be challenged.
    "...they..."? Is there some secret 'woke' organisation we should be made aware of?

    Honestly, just get over it. The world is changing, it always has been, always will.
    To understand how twattish you sound, this is what you are saying in about 1912:

    "...they..."? Is there some secret 'Marxist' organisation we should be made aware of?

    Honestly, just get over it. The world is changing, it always has been, always will."

    Hardly. There was nothing especially secret about organised Marxism in 1912.

    Meanwhile, that same year you'd be railing against the idea that women should have the vote or that the Irish should be allowed Home Rule.
    Leon is talking about cultural marxism that has infested our institutions....read up on the frankfurt school
    There was a bloke here yesterday who wanted to burn down a bookshop for stocking books about how maybe kidnapping Africans and shipping them to a different continent to work for no pay is maybe not the kindest thing to do and how blokes sometimes like other blokes doing things with their dicks. Nowt soqueer as folks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160
    edited November 2022
    DrkB said:

    Another problem with woke is the institutions pushing it are so hypocritical.

    Headline in mail today on Goldman Sachs

    "Dont you know how Wall Street rolls sister. Sex gets you further than any degree"

    Yet Goldman Sachs will at the same time push woke platitudes in its policy documents and likely sponsor and push woke causes.

    "Goldman Sachs will at the same time push woke platitudes in its policy documents"

    Goldman Sachs has a marketing department that wants to suck up to policy makers to get lucrative business shocker.

    Goldman Sachs has - I'm sure - in the past invited policy makers to give speeches at conferences to stoke egos for the same purpose.

    But I'm struggling to see my former employer as a woke warrior. (Although, of course, Wall Street has been a lot more accepting of homosexuality and the like: for the simple reason that they want to make money. You want to turn up in a dress? Well, if you bring in $10m to the bottom line, knock yourself out.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    Politicalbetting would be a far better place if people stopped writing articles and comments about trans issues.

    It's irrelevant to politics and it brings out the worst in the hard right wingers and trans exclusionary radical feminists.

    Let people get on with their lives and stop f-ing obsessing about an irrelevant topic in the grand scheme.

    Hear hear. Clearly this particular hobby horse is something the author feels passionately about but I’m not sure that a website ostensibly dedicated to politics and political betting is the right platform for posting variations of the same one-sided perspective of the gender recognition debate over and over and over again.

    One article on the subject may be interesting and/or thought-provoking even if a little bit tangential for this site. Repeated articles? Tedious. Obsessive. Unnecessary. It’s hard to see any other purpose for this out-of-place stuck record show than inverse virtue signalling clickbait for those who get their jollies extolling their antiwoke credentials while feigning concern for women’s rights. Do me a favour.

    The running commentary on the cricket that occasionally litters the comments threads gets on my tits as well.
    Thanks, @Heathener
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    Politicalbetting would be a far better place if people stopped writing articles and comments about trans issues.

    It's irrelevant to politics and it brings out the worst in the hard right wingers and trans exclusionary radical feminists.

    Let people get on with their lives and stop f-ing obsessing about an irrelevant topic in the grand scheme.

    Hear hear. Clearly this particular hobby horse is something the author feels passionately about but I’m not sure that a website ostensibly dedicated to politics and political betting is the right platform for posting variations of the same one-sided perspective of the gender recognition debate over and over and over again.

    One article on the subject may be interesting and/or thought-provoking even if a little bit tangential for this site. Repeated articles? Tedious. Obsessive. Unnecessary. It’s hard to see any other purpose for this out-of-place stuck record show than inverse virtue signalling clickbait for those who get their jollies extolling their antiwoke credentials while feigning concern for women’s rights. Do me a favour.

    The running commentary on the cricket that occasionally litters the comments threads gets on my tits as well.
    The editors are open to guest submissions if you feel it’s so one sided. In any case, discussing a political issue on a politics website isn’t that extraordinary.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited November 2022
    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Believe whatever you want, @leon - I don’t care. Your claim that scientific truth can be established by asking people wot they recon in a poll is absurd.

    500 years ago a theoretical poll of all the people in the world would have shown the vast majority believed the sun moved around us. Science proved them wrong.

    The “wisdom of crowds” argument has some arguable validity in social science, and is particularly interesting in political polling, where the population are participants in establishing a truth (a numerical election outcome).

    It has no value in establishing the truth of the origins of Covid. For that, you need to ask scientists. And they pretty much all say, with a fair amount of confidence, that Covid was Zoonotic in origin.

    Lots of rubbish is written about the "wisdom of crowds". When the notion isn't rubbish, it's always about opinions formed independently. That doesn't happen in crowds.

    Anybody interested can start with Gustave Le Bon. Never mind the eugenicist scumbag Francis Galton and the weighing of the bull. Crowds run on emotion. Nothing wrong with that, but they are very gullible. And there is something wrong with that.

    SARSCoV2 probably did come from a lab. I haven't studied the issue so I don't have much of an opinion on it. But if I study it, I won't care what the f***ing majority think.
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68
    Bad news out of Iran tonite

    It’s been reported that within the last few hours Iranian Military Forces have entered the City of Mahabad in Northwestern Iran, the use of Heavy Weaponry can be heard throughout the City and there are many Disturbing Claims beginning to coming out that include Massacres.

    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1594109941295370241?s=20&t=rWVlH8coR7drBwzgiQvsgA
  • darkage said:

    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Politicalbetting would be a far better place if people stopped writing articles and comments about trans issues.

    It's irrelevant to politics and it brings out the worst in the hard right wingers and trans exclusionary radical feminists.

    Let people get on with their lives and stop f-ing obsessing about an irrelevant topic in the grand scheme.

    "People who disagree with me should shut up".
    She's an intelligent poster most of the time but I'm afraid this is how her generation is wired. It's part of the insidious effects of Woke.

    As far as they're concerned the issue isn't up for discussion.
    It does feel a bit like the current reorganisation of twitter is the beginning of the end of 'woke'. They overreached.
    Woke will definitely end at some point because they will overreach, and society will tire of it, but it won't happen automatically.

    The lunacy has to constantly be challenged.
    "...they..."? Is there some secret 'woke' organisation we should be made aware of?

    Honestly, just get over it. The world is changing, it always has been, always will.
    And, it will change back my way in time.

    It's not my fault if you lack the intelligence to see round corners.
    See round corners, and seeing men doing disgusting things with each others thingies? Why not just not look round the corner?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Where did MERS come from? Or Ebola? Or the sweating sickness? Or Yrsinia Pestis? I’m not convinced that public belief about origin is what matters. In truth I don’t know if it was from a lab, or not. It matters if the Chinese know it did but aren’t saying.
    This is just ridiculous now. Did MERS come from the one city in the world which had a lab deliberately engineering pangolin MERS viruses to be more dangerous to humans and therefore likely to cause plagues? Did it?

    Did Ebola come from the one single village on the planet which had a virology institute which boasted "hey. we're experimenting with this thing called Ebola and trying to make it easy to spread and we're quite casual about laboratory safety when we gather pangolins in the wild but don't worry"?

    That's how insane this shit is, now. It's over. It came from the lab. And scientists will just have to cope with the fact this makes them deeply and existentially uneasy, and guilty. So be it
    It’s not ridiculous, it’s an illustration that novel viruses can emerge into man, and have done repeatedly. I am not discounting the possibility that covid is the result of a lab leak. Lab leaks happen. It’s also possible that it is a result of gain of function research. But it’s also possible it is entirely natural in origin, just like SARS, MERS and all the rest.
    I know you think it’s been proven beyond all doubt, but not everyone agrees with you.
    But every fibre of your being YEARNS to dismiss lab leak. Because you're a scientist in this field, I recall? Or you have some connection which makes you wholly uncomfortable with any hypothesis which says The boffins fucking went and did it

    I feel your pain, and sympathise
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Where did MERS come from? Or Ebola? Or the sweating sickness? Or Yrsinia Pestis? I’m not convinced that public belief about origin is what matters. In truth I don’t know if it was from a lab, or not. It matters if the Chinese know it did but aren’t saying.
    This is just ridiculous now. Did MERS come from the one city in the world which had a lab deliberately engineering pangolin MERS viruses to be more dangerous to humans and therefore likely to cause plagues? Did it?

    Did Ebola come from the one single village on the planet which had a virology institute which boasted "hey. we're experimenting with this thing called Ebola and trying to make it easy to spread and we're quite casual about laboratory safety when we gather pangolins in the wild but don't worry"?

    That's how insane this shit is, now. It's over. It came from the lab. And scientists will just have to cope with the fact this makes them deeply and existentially uneasy, and guilty. So be it
    It’s not ridiculous, it’s an illustration that novel viruses can emerge into man, and have done repeatedly. I am not discounting the possibility that covid is the result of a lab leak. Lab leaks happen. It’s also possible that it is a result of gain of function research. But it’s also possible it is entirely natural in origin, just like SARS, MERS and all the rest.
    I know you think it’s been proven beyond all doubt, but not everyone agrees with you.
    The fact that 3 years on they have not identified the intermediate host or the transmission pathway despite an extensive effort by the Chinese government (who has the greatest interest in proving this) suggests - although doesn’t prove - that natural transmission was not the most likely root cause of the pandemic
  • TresTres Posts: 2,700
    edited November 2022
    Leon is like the canary for whatever numnuts theory is being pushed by right-wing US social media loons. And he still completely missed Dark Brandon.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the point of governmental nagging? The price should do that without undue urging from our rulers. That's what it does.
    Yes, I personally welcomed the lack of a campaign. Once, I was merely irritated at governmemt campaigns of this sort: being patronised at my own expense. But since the debacle of government campaigning during covid, I rather welcomed a principled refusal to hector, no matter how much I agreed with the subject.
  • London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    rcs1000 said:

    The only thing that prevents me from completely buying the lab leak theory is that @Leon is so convinced of is veracity.

    There is an interesting parallel with the awarding of the 2022 World Cup to Qatar

    At first a lot of people piously pretended to believe this was all legit, although some voices were deeply suspicious from the start. The overwhelming circumstantial evidence said: This is Dodgy. Russia and Qatar? Really?

    Slowly over time the consensus has peeled away. Almost no one now believes Qatar legitimately won the right to host the World Cup. Even Sepp Blatter. Yet here we are. World Cup in Qatar, the skeptics were right yet the Qataris have gotten away with it

    Read across: China, Virology, Wuhan, Daszak, the lab. They will get away with it, like Qatar, as so much is invested in that outcome happening
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
  • Tres said:

    Leon is like the canary for whatever numnuts theory is being pushed by right-wing US social media loons. And he still completely missed Dark Brandon.

    The intelligent judge a theory by the evidence for and against it. The stupid judge it by its supporters and opponents. Thanks for taking the time to clarify which group you belong to. Appreciate it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Where did MERS come from? Or Ebola? Or the sweating sickness? Or Yrsinia Pestis? I’m not convinced that public belief about origin is what matters. In truth I don’t know if it was from a lab, or not. It matters if the Chinese know it did but aren’t saying.
    This is just ridiculous now. Did MERS come from the one city in the world which had a lab deliberately engineering pangolin MERS viruses to be more dangerous to humans and therefore likely to cause plagues? Did it?

    Did Ebola come from the one single village on the planet which had a virology institute which boasted "hey. we're experimenting with this thing called Ebola and trying to make it easy to spread and we're quite casual about laboratory safety when we gather pangolins in the wild but don't worry"?

    That's how insane this shit is, now. It's over. It came from the lab. And scientists will just have to cope with the fact this makes them deeply and existentially uneasy, and guilty. So be it
    It’s not ridiculous, it’s an illustration that novel viruses can emerge into man, and have done repeatedly. I am not discounting the possibility that covid is the result of a lab leak. Lab leaks happen. It’s also possible that it is a result of gain of function research. But it’s also possible it is entirely natural in origin, just like SARS, MERS and all the rest.
    I know you think it’s been proven beyond all doubt, but not everyone agrees with you.
    But every fibre of your being YEARNS to dismiss lab leak. Because you're a scientist in this field, I recall? Or you have some connection which makes you wholly uncomfortable with any hypothesis which says The boffins fucking went and did it

    I feel your pain, and sympathise
    I work in medicinal chemistry, not virology. I amopen to it being a lab leak, I think your 97.3% certainty is laughable on the data we have. There are other possibilities. We don’t know. It’s possible that you are right about the cover up - they were worried that it might have occurred and deliberately tried to rubbish that story. But that doesn’t mean it was a leak.
    I work in science and know scientists. They are just like other people. They get scared, make poor choices, sometimes lie. You want someone to blame for covid - I get that. Ultimately blame the Chinese - they failed to prevent covid spreading throughout the world, quite deliberately in my view.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    On thread - I have nothing substantial to say on the subject, but a polite thanks to @cyclefree for submitting, not least because I was thinking the other day it had been a while since we had heard from her and had feared she'd left us.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360

    Scott_xP said:

    Fifa have banned Harry Kane and England from wearing the 'OneLove' armband at World Cup.

    ✍️ @SamWallaceTel and @JBurtTelegraph

    #TelegraphFootball #FIFAWorldCup

    So wear it anyway.

    Imagine FIFA kicking England out for that but letting Qatar and Iran play …

    Scott_xP said:

    Fifa have banned Harry Kane and England from wearing the 'OneLove' armband at World Cup.

    ✍️ @SamWallaceTel and @JBurtTelegraph

    #TelegraphFootball #FIFAWorldCup

    So wear it anyway.

    Imagine FIFA kicking England out for that but letting Qatar and Iran play …
    You underestimate FIFA

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Where did MERS come from? Or Ebola? Or the sweating sickness? Or Yrsinia Pestis? I’m not convinced that public belief about origin is what matters. In truth I don’t know if it was from a lab, or not. It matters if the Chinese know it did but aren’t saying.
    This is just ridiculous now. Did MERS come from the one city in the world which had a lab deliberately engineering pangolin MERS viruses to be more dangerous to humans and therefore likely to cause plagues? Did it?

    Did Ebola come from the one single village on the planet which had a virology institute which boasted "hey. we're experimenting with this thing called Ebola and trying to make it easy to spread and we're quite casual about laboratory safety when we gather pangolins in the wild but don't worry"?

    That's how insane this shit is, now. It's over. It came from the lab. And scientists will just have to cope with the fact this makes them deeply and existentially uneasy, and guilty. So be it
    It’s not ridiculous, it’s an illustration that novel viruses can emerge into man, and have done repeatedly. I am not discounting the possibility that covid is the result of a lab leak. Lab leaks happen. It’s also possible that it is a result of gain of function research. But it’s also possible it is entirely natural in origin, just like SARS, MERS and all the rest.
    I know you think it’s been proven beyond all doubt, but not everyone agrees with you.
    But every fibre of your being YEARNS to dismiss lab leak. Because you're a scientist in this field, I recall? Or you have some connection which makes you wholly uncomfortable with any hypothesis which says The boffins fucking went and did it

    I feel your pain, and sympathise
    I work in medicinal chemistry, not virology. I amopen to it being a lab leak, I think your 97.3% certainty is laughable on the data we have. There are other possibilities. We don’t know. It’s possible that you are right about the cover up - they were worried that it might have occurred and deliberately tried to rubbish that story. But that doesn’t mean it was a leak.
    I work in science and know scientists. They are just like other people. They get scared, make poor choices, sometimes lie. You want someone to blame for covid - I get that. Ultimately blame the Chinese - they failed to prevent covid spreading throughout the world, quite deliberately in my view.
    OK let's do baby steps

    Are you really not entirely convinced there was a cover-up?! 100% there was a cover up. The evidence for this is is plain sight, and open to public view. You honestly doubt this?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    edited November 2022

    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Politicalbetting would be a far better place if people stopped writing articles and comments about trans issues.

    It's irrelevant to politics and it brings out the worst in the hard right wingers and trans exclusionary radical feminists.

    Let people get on with their lives and stop f-ing obsessing about an irrelevant topic in the grand scheme.

    "People who disagree with me should shut up".
    She's an intelligent poster most of the time but I'm afraid this is how her generation is wired. It's part of the insidious effects of Woke.

    As far as they're concerned the issue isn't up for discussion.
    Her generation? Are you sure? I was under the impression she is mid fifties or sixties.
    I thought she was very young.

    Happy to be corrected if I'm mistaken.
    I think you are talking about two different women. Cyclefree and Heathener. Crossed wires.
    EDIT: perhaps not.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Where did MERS come from? Or Ebola? Or the sweating sickness? Or Yrsinia Pestis? I’m not convinced that public belief about origin is what matters. In truth I don’t know if it was from a lab, or not. It matters if the Chinese know it did but aren’t saying.
    This is just ridiculous now. Did MERS come from the one city in the world which had a lab deliberately engineering pangolin MERS viruses to be more dangerous to humans and therefore likely to cause plagues? Did it?

    Did Ebola come from the one single village on the planet which had a virology institute which boasted "hey. we're experimenting with this thing called Ebola and trying to make it easy to spread and we're quite casual about laboratory safety when we gather pangolins in the wild but don't worry"?

    That's how insane this shit is, now. It's over. It came from the lab. And scientists will just have to cope with the fact this makes them deeply and existentially uneasy, and guilty. So be it
    It’s not ridiculous, it’s an illustration that novel viruses can emerge into man, and have done repeatedly. I am not discounting the possibility that covid is the result of a lab leak. Lab leaks happen. It’s also possible that it is a result of gain of function research. But it’s also possible it is entirely natural in origin, just like SARS, MERS and all the rest.
    I know you think it’s been proven beyond all doubt, but not everyone agrees with you.
    The fact that 3 years on they have not identified the intermediate host or the transmission pathway despite an extensive effort by the Chinese government (who has the greatest interest in proving this) suggests - although doesn’t prove - that natural transmission was not the most likely root cause of the pandemic
    IIUC the route the Chinese government has been pushing despite a total lack of evidence is via frozen meat. The live animal route is also not great for them because at a minimum it implicates their wildlife trade regulation, and potentially also central-government-promoted wildlife domestication.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    A good thing all round if Farage returns. Johnson's ideological Tory-Brexit merger in 2019 looked a clever trick for a while but the Tories are now lost, and the country has suffered. They can recover if freed from his spell, and forced finally to confront his Brexit movement.
    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1594446550511534086
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1594439536418897922
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Where did MERS come from? Or Ebola? Or the sweating sickness? Or Yrsinia Pestis? I’m not convinced that public belief about origin is what matters. In truth I don’t know if it was from a lab, or not. It matters if the Chinese know it did but aren’t saying.
    This is just ridiculous now. Did MERS come from the one city in the world which had a lab deliberately engineering pangolin MERS viruses to be more dangerous to humans and therefore likely to cause plagues? Did it?

    Did Ebola come from the one single village on the planet which had a virology institute which boasted "hey. we're experimenting with this thing called Ebola and trying to make it easy to spread and we're quite casual about laboratory safety when we gather pangolins in the wild but don't worry"?

    That's how insane this shit is, now. It's over. It came from the lab. And scientists will just have to cope with the fact this makes them deeply and existentially uneasy, and guilty. So be it
    It’s not ridiculous, it’s an illustration that novel viruses can emerge into man, and have done repeatedly. I am not discounting the possibility that covid is the result of a lab leak. Lab leaks happen. It’s also possible that it is a result of gain of function research. But it’s also possible it is entirely natural in origin, just like SARS, MERS and all the rest.
    I know you think it’s been proven beyond all doubt, but not everyone agrees with you.
    But every fibre of your being YEARNS to dismiss lab leak. Because you're a scientist in this field, I recall? Or you have some connection which makes you wholly uncomfortable with any hypothesis which says The boffins fucking went and did it

    I feel your pain, and sympathise
    I work in medicinal chemistry, not virology. I amopen to it being a lab leak, I think your 97.3% certainty is laughable on the data we have. There are other possibilities. We don’t know. It’s possible that you are right about the cover up - they were worried that it might have occurred and deliberately tried to rubbish that story. But that doesn’t mean it was a leak.
    I work in science and know scientists. They are just like other people. They get scared, make poor choices, sometimes lie. You want someone to blame for covid - I get that. Ultimately blame the Chinese - they failed to prevent covid spreading throughout the world, quite deliberately in my view.
    OK let's do baby steps

    Are you really not entirely convinced there was a cover-up?! 100% there was a cover up. The evidence for this is is plain sight, and open to public view. You honestly doubt this?
    I think there has been a cover up of some things, yes.
  • London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Agreed. That 19% Con in Rest of South is the stand out number. If that is anywhere near the truth then the Blue Wall is about to be smashed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    And the Faragists...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Barnesian said:

    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Politicalbetting would be a far better place if people stopped writing articles and comments about trans issues.

    It's irrelevant to politics and it brings out the worst in the hard right wingers and trans exclusionary radical feminists.

    Let people get on with their lives and stop f-ing obsessing about an irrelevant topic in the grand scheme.

    "People who disagree with me should shut up".
    She's an intelligent poster most of the time but I'm afraid this is how her generation is wired. It's part of the insidious effects of Woke.

    As far as they're concerned the issue isn't up for discussion.
    Her generation? Are you sure? I was under the impression she is mid fifties or sixties.
    I thought she was very young.

    Happy to be corrected if I'm mistaken.
    I think you are talking about two different women. Cyclefree and Heathener. Crossed wires.
    In my head both those two are similar ages.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    kle4 said:

    DrkB said:

    DrkB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Fifa have banned Harry Kane and England from wearing the 'OneLove' armband at World Cup.

    ✍️ @SamWallaceTel and @JBurtTelegraph

    #TelegraphFootball #FIFAWorldCup

    to be fair this was pointless virtue signalling by england, im pretty sure many of the players would be uncomfortable with an openly gay player in the dressing room regardless of what they say.
    That's an interesting point actually.

    How much have attitudes really, seriously, changed and how much of it is just very strong social proof with actual tolerance only skin-deep?

    I'm not sure but, I suspect, it would easily return if the rules were different as fundamentally authoritarianism is buried deep within us.
    I actually think tolerance is only skin deep amongst many even in some younger people. People are natural herd animals and homosexuality has been presented very positively in the last 30 years. I always remember my friends at university saying they would think less of someone if they knew they were gay....not so long ago either
    I suppose it depends what you mean by skin deep. That they are pretending? Or that they believe they are tolerant, but push come to shove would react against?

    As I can easily believe some people are more uncomfortable in reality than they might admit, but in practice if they genuinely believe themselves tolerant, and act accordingly, what would then shift them to reveal an inner contrary opinion, even to themselves?

    And if it is largely about presentation and herd behaviour, for sake of argument, then within a general or two the tolerance will be ingrained and not skin deep anyway.
    I think everything fails, eventually, because every system possesses the seeds of its own decay. One day, liberal democracy will fail, and the executioner and torture chamber will return to Western Europe.

    Some of those regimes will persecute homosexuals.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Self-awareness is not really a Tory thang.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited November 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    This is a carbon copy of what we were told after Truss was deposed - ie that there was fury in local parties and amongst party members.

    Well what evidence is there of this? How many local party Chairmen have resigned? How many members have resigned?

    Very little has actually happened for the simple reason that the vast majority of party members are not particularly ideological - despite what some people seem to think.
  • geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the point of governmental nagging? The price should do that without undue urging from our rulers. That's what it does.
    If the government are spending £100bn-£200bn on energy over the next couple of years why on earth get annoyed at a bit of nagging that might reduce the amount we use, and therefore taxpayer funds by a couple of percent?

    It is not as if the UK public finances are in such great shape that we can prefer no nagging over a couple of billion quid.
    They've chosen to subsidise peoples' expenditure on gas. Doesn't that encourage said people to economise less than they otherwise would? Taxpayers' money dissipating up the flue. The effect of the subsidy is to make our collective demand for gas even more inelastic when that very inelasticity is the source of the problem.
    The alternative would have been complete chaos. Customers wouldnt and couldnt pay. Energy firms not allowed to cut them off and not receiving payments would go bankrupt. Bail outs by government and taxpayer would just have happened after chaos, rather than order.

    Some form of mass government subsidy of energy was inevitable. We should want to reduce the amount of that subsidy by encouraging people to think about what they use. Most people will have done so already with prices tripling but if the spend is in the hundred of billions then adjustments at the margin make a big difference too.

    And that is before we get into setting good habits for the future health of the planet and the battle to avoid power blackouts this winter.
  • There are so many new posters

    Is anyone running a book on the first one out?
  • dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    But Sunak has been doing much better in London that either Truss or late Johnson. He seems to appeal (relatively) to Metropolitans. The rest of England: not so much.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    There are so many new posters

    Is anyone running a book on the first one out?

    Can I pick DrkB please? The one has already been shown to have all the characteristics of the previous 41 bits?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,917
    edited November 2022
    I felt so proud today to see Rishi towering three quarters of an inch above Zelensky
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406

    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    But Sunak has been doing much better in London that either Truss or late Johnson. He seems to appeal (relatively) to Metropolitans. The rest of England: not so much.
    Indeed. But I'll be convinced he's doing better in London than Rest of South when the results are declared. Not before.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    I felt so proud today to see Rishi towering three quarters of an inch above Zelensky

    Poor Liz

    All the Insta shots she slaved so hard to get over the years, and she doesn't have the big one
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    The Tory Party really has lost the plot.
    You are absolutely correct. Highest tax take since 1948.
    They are flailing about for a narrative to explain their abject and all too manifest failure. Each new iteration must therefore be more extreme and opposite to the last.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    "weird economic experiment" = paying for Covid furlough
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    "weird economic experiment" = paying for Covid furlough
    That, and Russia, is the flimsy narrative they are trying to construct. With little success.
    Besides. It was their furlough. They never stopped banging on about its genius and compassion at the time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    I get they don't like it, or the very likely prospect of defeat (with local councillors and members facing a big hit along the way). No one likes things that cost a lot and are unpopular.

    What I don't get is the 'disbelief' from the local members. Do they not follow the news and the much trailed direction of travel?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    I felt so proud today to see Rishi towering three quarters of an inch above Zelensky

    Genuine lol
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    "weird economic experiment" = paying for Covid furlough
    Paying for things is very unConservative.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Fifa have banned Harry Kane and England from wearing the 'OneLove' armband at World Cup.

    ✍️ @SamWallaceTel and @JBurtTelegraph

    #TelegraphFootball #FIFAWorldCup

    So wear it anyway.

    Imagine FIFA kicking England out for that but letting Qatar and Iran play …

    Scott_xP said:

    Fifa have banned Harry Kane and England from wearing the 'OneLove' armband at World Cup.

    ✍️ @SamWallaceTel and @JBurtTelegraph

    #TelegraphFootball #FIFAWorldCup

    So wear it anyway.

    Imagine FIFA kicking England out for that but letting Qatar and Iran play …
    You underestimate FIFA

    Not at all. I have no doubt that is the route they would choose.

    I will be disappointed when we get mealy mouthed expression of support but no action from the US and European countries
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    "weird economic experiment" = paying for Covid furlough
    That, and Russia, is the flimsy narrative they are trying to construct. With little success.
    Besides. It was their furlough. They never stopped banging on about its genius and compassion at the time.
    Who thought that many hundreds of billions didn't need repaying?

    I mean - REALLY???
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    MikeL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    This is a carbon copy of what we were told after Truss was deposed - ie that there was fury in local parties and amongst party members.

    Well what evidence is there of this? How many local party Chairmen have resigned? How many members have resigned?

    Very little has actually happened for the simple reason that the vast majority of party members are not particularly ideological - despite what some people seem to think.
    Yes, there's a lot of noise made, but its nearly always agitators.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Where did MERS come from? Or Ebola? Or the sweating sickness? Or Yrsinia Pestis? I’m not convinced that public belief about origin is what matters. In truth I don’t know if it was from a lab, or not. It matters if the Chinese know it did but aren’t saying.
    This is just ridiculous now. Did MERS come from the one city in the world which had a lab deliberately engineering pangolin MERS viruses to be more dangerous to humans and therefore likely to cause plagues? Did it?

    Did Ebola come from the one single village on the planet which had a virology institute which boasted "hey. we're experimenting with this thing called Ebola and trying to make it easy to spread and we're quite casual about laboratory safety when we gather pangolins in the wild but don't worry"?

    That's how insane this shit is, now. It's over. It came from the lab. And scientists will just have to cope with the fact this makes them deeply and existentially uneasy, and guilty. So be it
    It’s not ridiculous, it’s an illustration that novel viruses can emerge into man, and have done repeatedly. I am not discounting the possibility that covid is the result of a lab leak. Lab leaks happen. It’s also possible that it is a result of gain of function research. But it’s also possible it is entirely natural in origin, just like SARS, MERS and all the rest.
    I know you think it’s been proven beyond all doubt, but not everyone agrees with you.
    But every fibre of your being YEARNS to dismiss lab leak. Because you're a scientist in this field, I recall? Or you have some connection which makes you wholly uncomfortable with any hypothesis which says The boffins fucking went and did it

    I feel your pain, and sympathise
    I work in medicinal chemistry, not virology. I amopen to it being a lab leak, I think your 97.3% certainty is laughable on the data we have. There are other possibilities. We don’t know. It’s possible that you are right about the cover up - they were worried that it might have occurred and deliberately tried to rubbish that story. But that doesn’t mean it was a leak.
    I work in science and know scientists. They are just like other people. They get scared, make poor choices, sometimes lie. You want someone to blame for covid - I get that. Ultimately blame the Chinese - they failed to prevent covid spreading throughout the world, quite deliberately in my view.
    OK let's do baby steps

    Are you really not entirely convinced there was a cover-up?! 100% there was a cover up. The evidence for this is is plain sight, and open to public view. You honestly doubt this?
    I think there has been a cover up of some things, yes.
    Fair play. Good for you

    Once you accept there has been a cover up - in my experience - it is easier to see Why. They really think it probably came from the lab, and that means: careers end, funds dry up, labs close, perhaps there will be jail time for quite a few people, perhaps worse than jail time

    20 million people have died. You would do almost anything - go to any mental contortions, even convincing yourself with lies and bias - to avoid admitting that you are in any way culpable for this immense human catastrophe
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829

    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Politicalbetting would be a far better place if people stopped writing articles and comments about trans issues.

    It's irrelevant to politics and it brings out the worst in the hard right wingers and trans exclusionary radical feminists.

    Let people get on with their lives and stop f-ing obsessing about an irrelevant topic in the grand scheme.

    "People who disagree with me should shut up".
    She's an intelligent poster most of the time but I'm afraid this is how her generation is wired. It's part of the insidious effects of Woke.

    As far as they're concerned the issue isn't up for discussion.
    I have a couple of Gen Z juniors who have confided that they are glad our workplace isn't political and we don't have mandatory pronouns in emails or on slack. My generation is much more sceptical about it all than most realise, women in particular have benefited from second and third wave feminism winning them a lot of sex based rights and they aren't looking to give them up without a fight.

    I wouldn't make judgements on Gen Z based on what we see in the news or on social media. There's a big desire to conform but underneath that there's also a hugely diverse range of views. I think the only universal views I've ever heard from them is that landlords are all dickheads and old people are all selfish, usually including their own grandparents.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    But Sunak has been doing much better in London that either Truss or late Johnson. He seems to appeal (relatively) to Metropolitans. The rest of England: not so much.
    Indeed. But I'll be convinced he's doing better in London than Rest of South when the results are declared. Not before.
    The whole point of a betting website is attempting to be wise *before* an event.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,841
    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    I'd give Sunak and Hunt a chance. They haven't trashed market confidence.... yet.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,134
    Cookie said:



    Off topic, and with only the excuse that even amid the gloom and rancour of a World Cup-inflicted November that there is still beauty and joy to be had, the sunset today over Morecambe Bay from Arnside Knott, in a brief window between downpours.

    ...isn't that the atmosphere catching on fire ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Scary BBC science doc on the intimidation of COVID scientists;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3b03

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-science-hour/id634849863

    tldl; COVID was almost certainly zoonotic in origin.

    These ignorant thugs making threats need to be arrested.

    "Almost certainly"

    lol
    Yes.
    Polls say that in 90% of countries people now firmly believe it came from the lab. Why? Because, en masse, people are not stupid. This is the Wisdom of Crowds (a real thing, btw, hence Ask the Audience on the Millionaire Quiz Show)

    The world's first plague from a deadly new apparently-enhanced bat coronavirus came from a city which had the world's only BSL2-4 laboratory deliberately enhancing bat coronaviruses that might cause plagues? Er, OK, so it came from the lab

    It's that simple. Always was
    Where did MERS come from? Or Ebola? Or the sweating sickness? Or Yrsinia Pestis? I’m not convinced that public belief about origin is what matters. In truth I don’t know if it was from a lab, or not. It matters if the Chinese know it did but aren’t saying.
    This is just ridiculous now. Did MERS come from the one city in the world which had a lab deliberately engineering pangolin MERS viruses to be more dangerous to humans and therefore likely to cause plagues? Did it?

    Did Ebola come from the one single village on the planet which had a virology institute which boasted "hey. we're experimenting with this thing called Ebola and trying to make it easy to spread and we're quite casual about laboratory safety when we gather pangolins in the wild but don't worry"?

    That's how insane this shit is, now. It's over. It came from the lab. And scientists will just have to cope with the fact this makes them deeply and existentially uneasy, and guilty. So be it
    It’s not ridiculous, it’s an illustration that novel viruses can emerge into man, and have done repeatedly. I am not discounting the possibility that covid is the result of a lab leak. Lab leaks happen. It’s also possible that it is a result of gain of function research. But it’s also possible it is entirely natural in origin, just like SARS, MERS and all the rest.
    I know you think it’s been proven beyond all doubt, but not everyone agrees with you.
    But every fibre of your being YEARNS to dismiss lab leak. Because you're a scientist in this field, I recall? Or you have some connection which makes you wholly uncomfortable with any hypothesis which says The boffins fucking went and did it

    I feel your pain, and sympathise
    I work in medicinal chemistry, not virology. I amopen to it being a lab leak, I think your 97.3% certainty is laughable on the data we have. There are other possibilities. We don’t know. It’s possible that you are right about the cover up - they were worried that it might have occurred and deliberately tried to rubbish that story. But that doesn’t mean it was a leak.
    I work in science and know scientists. They are just like other people. They get scared, make poor choices, sometimes lie. You want someone to blame for covid - I get that. Ultimately blame the Chinese - they failed to prevent covid spreading throughout the world, quite deliberately in my view.
    China didn't stop international flights taking off at the start of the pandemic — but neither did we stop those flights from landing in the UK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Agreed. That 19% Con in Rest of South is the stand out number. If that is anywhere near the truth then the Blue Wall is about to be smashed.
    I reckon the explanation for the incongruence is that Sunak (esp when allied with Remoaner Hunt) feels more Remainery. Sure he voted Leave, but he's a merchant banker, he must be a kind of Remainer, at heart

    And now we get these sounds of a Swiss EU deal? That will please quite a few Remainy richer Londoners (who don't fancy a Labour govt)

  • Brexit is the most colossal disaster this country has ever inflicted upon itself! Every man, woman and child is paying the price of this folly! 😡

    https://twitter.com/jv_uk2011/status/1594262098233757696?s=46&t=Vkehk6JW9M1ufPeovWhhpQ

    In fairness, the Great War clearly surpasses Brexit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    pm215 said:

    Cookie said:



    Off topic, and with only the excuse that even amid the gloom and rancour of a World Cup-inflicted November that there is still beauty and joy to be had, the sunset today over Morecambe Bay from Arnside Knott, in a brief window between downpours.

    ...isn't that the atmosphere catching on fire ?
    Red sky at night, Chernobyl's alight.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited November 2022

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Not to mention Scons on the way to being overtaken by the SGs, and even the SLDs. But subsamples, and trends do not continue forever.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    But Sunak has been doing much better in London that either Truss or late Johnson. He seems to appeal (relatively) to Metropolitans. The rest of England: not so much.
    Indeed. But I'll be convinced he's doing better in London than Rest of South when the results are declared. Not before.
    The whole point of a betting website is attempting to be wise *before* an event.
    Well of course.
    And if we all took the same view there'd be no betting markets. I am sceptical that Sunak is doing better in London than anywhere else.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    There are so many new posters

    Is anyone running a book on the first one out?

    Can I pick DrkB please? The one has already been shown to have all the characteristics of the previous 41 bits?
    Quite why we need to listen to homophobic diatribes from Russian trolls beats me. Pretty clear by now he is one of Putin's nasty little elves.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    edited November 2022
    Leon said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Agreed. That 19% Con in Rest of South is the stand out number. If that is anywhere near the truth then the Blue Wall is about to be smashed.
    I reckon the explanation for the incongruence is that Sunak (esp when allied with Remoaner Hunt) feels more Remainery. Sure he voted Leave, but he's a merchant banker, he must be a kind of Remainer, at heart

    And now we get these sounds of a Swiss EU deal? That will please quite a few Remainy richer Londoners (who don't fancy a Labour govt)

    Yes.
    He's the metropolitan elite alright.
    Just the Leave metropolitan elite.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Leon said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Agreed. That 19% Con in Rest of South is the stand out number. If that is anywhere near the truth then the Blue Wall is about to be smashed.
    I reckon the explanation for the incongruence is that Sunak (esp when allied with Remoaner Hunt) feels more Remainery. Sure he voted Leave, but he's a merchant banker, he must be a kind of Remainer, at heart

    And now we get these sounds of a Swiss EU deal? That will please quite a few Remainy richer Londoners (who don't fancy a Labour govt)

    But a Swiss-style EU deal would cause a split; the Tories will never be free of their internal conflicts over Europe.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,718

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the point of governmental nagging? The price should do that without undue urging from our rulers. That's what it does.
    If the government are spending £100bn-£200bn on energy over the next couple of years why on earth get annoyed at a bit of nagging that might reduce the amount we use, and therefore taxpayer funds by a couple of percent?

    It is not as if the UK public finances are in such great shape that we can prefer no nagging over a couple of billion quid.
    They've chosen to subsidise peoples' expenditure on gas. Doesn't that encourage said people to economise less than they otherwise would? Taxpayers' money dissipating up the flue. The effect of the subsidy is to make our collective demand for gas even more inelastic when that very inelasticity is the source of the problem.
    The alternative would have been complete chaos. Customers wouldnt and couldnt pay. Energy firms not allowed to cut them off and not receiving payments would go bankrupt. Bail outs by government and taxpayer would just have happened after chaos, rather than order.

    Some form of mass government subsidy of energy was inevitable. We should want to reduce the amount of that subsidy by encouraging people to think about what they use. Most people will have done so already with prices tripling but if the spend is in the hundred of billions then adjustments at the margin make a big difference too.

    And that is before we get into setting good habits for the future health of the planet and the battle to avoid power blackouts this winter.
    There's a whole array of possible subsidy regimes. It did not have to be a subsidy that affects peoples' decisions whether or not to burn gas at the margin. For example, each gas consumer could have been given a price reduction on the first x therms consumed per month where x is, say, one half of the normal average consumption, and everyone gets it. But for consumption in excess of that, the market price per therm applies. Such a scheme would apply market prices to decisions at the margin and encourage saving on energy consumption without distorting the market signals which lead to a rational allocation of the scarce resource between uses.

  • Leon said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Agreed. That 19% Con in Rest of South is the stand out number. If that is anywhere near the truth then the Blue Wall is about to be smashed.
    I reckon the explanation for the incongruence is that Sunak (esp when allied with Remoaner Hunt) feels more Remainery. Sure he voted Leave, but he's a merchant banker, he must be a kind of Remainer, at heart

    And now we get these sounds of a Swiss EU deal? That will please quite a few Remainy richer Londoners (who don't fancy a Labour govt)

    Plausible explanation for his relative strength in London, but doesn’t explain his apparently weak performance in Rest of South.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    pm215 said:

    Cookie said:



    Off topic, and with only the excuse that even amid the gloom and rancour of a World Cup-inflicted November that there is still beauty and joy to be had, the sunset today over Morecambe Bay from Arnside Knott, in a brief window between downpours.

    ...isn't that the atmosphere catching on fire ?
    Was going to 'like' that post (it's witty) but couldn't bring myself to like the idea of the atmosphere catching on fire 😱
  • Carnyx said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Not to mention Scons on the way to being overtaken by the SGs, and even the SLDs. But subsamples, and trends do not continue forever.
    One trend that is very clear is that the once mildly successful Ruth Davidson Says No Party is now defunct.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803

    pm215 said:

    Cookie said:



    Off topic, and with only the excuse that even amid the gloom and rancour of a World Cup-inflicted November that there is still beauty and joy to be had, the sunset today over Morecambe Bay from Arnside Knott, in a brief window between downpours.

    ...isn't that the atmosphere catching on fire ?
    Red sky at night, Chernobyl's alight.
    Heysham nuclear power station is the one to worry about in this neck of the woods.
    But happily no other signs of armageddon in tge North West this evening.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    "weird economic experiment" = paying for Covid furlough
    That, and Russia, is the flimsy narrative they are trying to construct. With little success.
    Besides. It was their furlough. They never stopped banging on about its genius and compassion at the time
    Lockdown required furlough.

    Labour wanted longer and deeper lockdown.
  • Leon said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Agreed. That 19% Con in Rest of South is the stand out number. If that is anywhere near the truth then the Blue Wall is about to be smashed.
    I reckon the explanation for the incongruence is that Sunak (esp when allied with Remoaner Hunt) feels more Remainery. Sure he voted Leave, but he's a merchant banker, he must be a kind of Remainer, at heart

    And now we get these sounds of a Swiss EU deal? That will please quite a few Remainy richer Londoners (who don't fancy a Labour govt)

    But a Swiss-style EU deal would cause a split; the Tories will never be free of their internal conflicts over Europe.
    So, David Cameron was not a genius?

    This isn’t news.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    Suspect it's sub-standard samples rather than subsamples per se.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    Driver said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    "weird economic experiment" = paying for Covid furlough
    That, and Russia, is the flimsy narrative they are trying to construct. With little success.
    Besides. It was their furlough. They never stopped banging on about its genius and compassion at the time
    Lockdown required furlough.

    Labour wanted longer and deeper lockdown.
    And the Tories wanted us in harder and firmer in Iraq.
    Irrelevant. They aren't in power.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    dixiedean said:

    Driver said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    "weird economic experiment" = paying for Covid furlough
    That, and Russia, is the flimsy narrative they are trying to construct. With little success.
    Besides. It was their furlough. They never stopped banging on about its genius and compassion at the time
    Lockdown required furlough.

    Labour wanted longer and deeper lockdown.
    And the Tories wanted us in harder and firmer in Iraq.
    Irrelevant. They aren't in power.
    Also. Lockdown didn't require furlough in the form it took. That was a Tory choice.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    But Sunak has been doing much better in London that either Truss or late Johnson. He seems to appeal (relatively) to Metropolitans. The rest of England: not so much.
    Indeed. But I'll be convinced he's doing better in London than Rest of South when the results are declared. Not before.
    The whole point of a betting website is attempting to be wise *before* an event.
    Well of course.
    And if we all took the same view there'd be no betting markets. I am sceptical that Sunak is doing better in London than anywhere else.
    Fair enough. But please tell us where Sunak is doing better than he is in London.

    Somerset?
    Lincolnshire?
    Staffordshire?
    Where?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Labour in Scotland too. Subsamples, eh?

    Have we done this one?

    LAB: 51% (+1)
    CON: 25% (-2)
    LDEM: 9% (+3)

    via @DeltapollUK
    , 17 - 19 Nov
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Sunak bounce continues as latest Deltapoll shows Labour lead shrinking from 23% to, er 26%, oh...

    Conservative 25
    Labour 51
    Liberal Democrat 9
    UK Independence Party (UKIP) 2
    Reform UK 4
    Scottish National Party (SNP) 3
    Plaid Cymru (PC) 0
    Green 4
    Some other party 2


    https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Deltapoll-221119_voteint.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    Possibly a boost amongst British Indians?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Carnyx said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Not to mention Scons on the way to being overtaken by the SGs, and even the SLDs. But subsamples, and trends do not continue forever.
    One trend that is very clear is that the once mildly successful Ruth Davidson Says No Party is now defunct.
    Mphm.
  • Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    Possibly a boost amongst British Indians?
    Almost certainly. But my awareness of that demographic is poor: are they unusually concentrated in London?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Sunak bounce continues as latest Deltapoll shows Labour lead shrinking from 23% to, er 26%, oh...

    Conservative 25
    Labour 51
    Liberal Democrat 9
    UK Independence Party (UKIP) 2
    Reform UK 4
    Scottish National Party (SNP) 3
    Plaid Cymru (PC) 0
    Green 4
    Some other party 2


    https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Deltapoll-221119_voteint.pdf

    BAXTERED:


    Labour: 511
    Tories: 55


    Interestingly, the Tories would STILL be the Opposition because the SNP on 3% would fall to about 35 seats
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Labour in Scotland too. Subsamples, eh?

    Have we done this one?

    LAB: 51% (+1)
    CON: 25% (-2)
    LDEM: 9% (+3)

    via @DeltapollUK
    , 17 - 19 Nov
    Snap!
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    dixiedean said:

    Driver said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs have faced a mixture of “anger and disbelief” from local members over the Autumn Statement as backbenchers prepare to speak out in the Commons
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/20/tory-backbenchers-prepare-channel-grassroots-anger-autumn-statement/

    The same "local members" who thought Liz Truss to be the preferred PM?
    You might have thought they'd be for a period of quiet reflection.
    The Tory Party is finished if it continues to pander to them.
    Hunt/Sunak is just a different from of batshittery to Truss/Kwarteng.

    Each is conducting weird economic experiments on the population.

    "weird economic experiment" = paying for Covid furlough
    That, and Russia, is the flimsy narrative they are trying to construct. With little success.
    Besides. It was their furlough. They never stopped banging on about its genius and compassion at the time
    Lockdown required furlough.

    Labour wanted longer and deeper lockdown.
    And the Tories wanted us in harder and firmer in Iraq.
    That was recognised by people for whom that was the highest priority.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    Not to mention Scons on the way to being overtaken by the SGs, and even the SLDs. But subsamples, and trends do not continue forever.
    One trend that is very clear is that the once mildly successful Ruth Davidson Says No Party is now defunct.
    Mphm.
    I’d need a Babel Fish to decipher that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    Possibly a boost amongst British Indians?
    Almost certainly. But my awareness of that demographic is poor: are they unusually concentrated in London?
    It does seem so. Leicester has most, followed by Brum, then several London boroughs:

    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/summaries/indian-ethnic-group
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    How typical and depressing this is becoming. Leon announces what an important subject this is and tells Heathener to "fuck off" for suggesting it is of little political interest to the applause of his little coterie of 'likers' and then 350 posts later has yet to make a single post on this apparently vital subject.

    What a poseur!

    Sorry Heathener. You're an interesting and original poster. You deserve better. I hope you don't get chased off like the others
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Leon said:

    Sunak bounce continues as latest Deltapoll shows Labour lead shrinking from 23% to, er 26%, oh...

    Conservative 25
    Labour 51
    Liberal Democrat 9
    UK Independence Party (UKIP) 2
    Reform UK 4
    Scottish National Party (SNP) 3
    Plaid Cymru (PC) 0
    Green 4
    Some other party 2


    https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Deltapoll-221119_voteint.pdf

    BAXTERED:


    Labour: 511
    Tories: 55


    Interestingly, the Tories would STILL be the Opposition because the SNP on 3% would fall to about 35 seats
    Labour sucking the blood out of PC on 0% (it's actually 0.3%), SNP on 3%, and LDs on 9%.

    What a disaster Starmer is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Roger said:

    How typical and depressing this is becoming. Leon announces what an important subject this is and tells Heathener to "fuck off" for suggesting it is of little political interest to the applause of his little coterie of 'likers' and then 350 posts later has yet to make a single post on this apparently vital subject.

    What a poseur!

    Sorry Heathener. You're an interesting and original poster. You deserve better. I hope you don't get chased off like the others

    You didn't read the thread, did you?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,841
    The puzzling thing is where is this Swiss style stuff coming from. As Barclay said on sky this morning Hunt set out ways in his statement of how the UK was looking to diverge from the EU in certain areas like biosciences. They also didn't reverse the decision on capping bankers' bonuses which would have been popular.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,841
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    Possibly a boost amongst British Indians?
    Almost certainly. But my awareness of that demographic is poor: are they unusually concentrated in London?
    It does seem so. Leicester has most, followed by Brum, then several London boroughs:

    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/summaries/indian-ethnic-group
    Haven't Hindu voters been trending Conservative for a while?
  • Before anyone gets too carried away with an SNP and/or Plaid collapse, just a wee reminder of the last three proper polls in each country (GE2019 result in brackets)

    SNP 42%, 45%, 45% (45.0%)

    PC 13%, 15%, 16% (9.9%)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Can Brexiteers not see that if their explanation for why Brexit isn't going well is four consecutive PMs - one of them the leader of the Leave campaign - haven't done it properly, reasonable people might conclude the problem is the project itself, not how it has been implemented?
    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1594317281059749888
    https://twitter.com/_HenryBolton/status/1594238429206056960
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    LD 14%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 5%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 11%
    Ref 10%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 46%
    Con 26%
    Grn 8%
    LD 7%
    Ref 6%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 59%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 30%
    Grn 7%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%
    Ref 3%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,331; 18 November)

    That Rest of the South Con figure os startling.
    More startling. London has the joint highest Tory score of any region.
    The joy of subsamples, eh?
    But Sunak has been doing much better in London that either Truss or late Johnson. He seems to appeal (relatively) to Metropolitans. The rest of England: not so much.
    Indeed. But I'll be convinced he's doing better in London than Rest of South when the results are declared. Not before.
    The whole point of a betting website is attempting to be wise *before* an event.
    Well of course.
    And if we all took the same view there'd be no betting markets. I am sceptical that Sunak is doing better in London than anywhere else.
    Fair enough. But please tell us where Sunak is doing better than he is in London.

    Somerset?
    Lincolnshire?
    Staffordshire?
    Where?
    Staffs would be one. So would Essex and Lincs where the Tories start with huge majorities. If Sunak is doing better in London than those, then that would be truly epochal vote switching.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    Before anyone gets too carried away with an SNP and/or Plaid collapse, just a wee reminder of the last three proper polls in each country (GE2019 result in brackets)

    SNP 42%, 45%, 45% (45.0%)

    PC 13%, 15%, 16% (9.9%)

    So SNP below their 2019 total in one and failing to exceed it in the other 2
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    Had my booster today. Have called in sick tomorrow. Feeling guilty. Despite 3 out of 5 of us having COVID. Humans are strange.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    Leon said:

    Sunak bounce continues as latest Deltapoll shows Labour lead shrinking from 23% to, er 26%, oh...

    Conservative 25
    Labour 51
    Liberal Democrat 9
    UK Independence Party (UKIP) 2
    Reform UK 4
    Scottish National Party (SNP) 3
    Plaid Cymru (PC) 0
    Green 4
    Some other party 2


    https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Deltapoll-221119_voteint.pdf

    BAXTERED:


    Labour: 511
    Tories: 55


    Interestingly, the Tories would STILL be the Opposition because the SNP on 3% would fall to about 35 seats
    Hmm. Would someone who knows Scottish politics and isn't too invested in independence either way (are there such people) comment on whether the SNP grip is in fact weakening and Labour is picking up? - perhaps related to the issues in Cyclefree's leader, or general tiredness, or...? Or is it just random variation? If Labour was making real inroads in Scotland, that would drastically change the odds on a Labour majority.

    Incidentally, we have a local by-election in a Tory ward and I've been doing some phone canvassing. Tories under pressure, but there are still lots who are quite unhesitatingly Tory. I can well believe that there's a floor of 20-25%.
This discussion has been closed.