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Hunt’s budget has almost no impact on the general election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,945
    WillG said:

    EPG said:

    WillG said:

    EPG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    The current iteration of the Tory Party needs to FOAD.


    You voted for Sunak, did you not?
    As the least worst option, your candidate fucked up the economy for a generation, and will keep the party out for a similar generation.

    Truss supporters, like Brexit supporters, really should reflect on the unflushable turds they've given the country.
    No, the economic turds were built up by your mate the Chancellor from 2020 to 2022 and his predecessors over the 10 years before that. The fact that with one quick squeeze of his bowels his successor finally blocked the toilet for 3 weeks this Autumn is neither here nor there.

    Truss and Kwarteng enacted virtually no measures of lasting effect apart from the NI reduction, which is just about the only thing of their legacy to survive after today. What they did do though was to remove the rose tinted spectacles from the markets' eyes, so that they're finally taking a more critical look and recognising the UK economy as the basket case it's become over the long term.
    The UK economy has been a Ponzi scheme for 20 years. Relying on ever greater amounts of immigration (which led to perpetually high property prices) and fat taxes from the City. This was completely unsustainable because

    1. All that immigration has deeply unpleasant or radical or contradictory consequences. Brexit was just one of them

    2. High property prices are just another way to fuck the young, who then consider voting Corbyn, SNP, etc

    3. The taxes from the City took a big hit from the GFC and yada yada yada

    And now the markets have realised this and Ouch

    We will no doubt survive, and eventually find a new economic model. But the pain of the necessary reset is going to be intense
    Immigration isn't a Ponzi scheme, it's simply a natural consequence of different demographics and different economic situations in different parts of the world and the technology existing to make migration relatively cheap. It has always been like this - we act like it's a new thing because the phenomenon of other people coming to the UK is relatively recent (not that recent of course, large scale immigration started soon after ww2, more than 70 years ago) but we were exporting large numbers of people to the rest of the world from the 17th century onwards. When Britons emigrated to the Americas or Australia or Africa was that a Ponzi scheme?
    Arguably the entire human civilisation, which is devouring the world's resources at an unsustainable pace, is a Ponzi scheme, but there's nothing especially unsustainable about post war immigration patterns in the UK. People might not like it, of course, that's an entirely different question.
    Total bollocks

    Immigration into the UK in recent decades has been completely unprecedented in scale and proportion

    1 in 6 people in the UK is now foreign born. This has consequences. And one of them was Brexit. It’s not why I voted for it, but many did. As Remainers keep reminding us. And yet it was the Remainers that opened the borders
    Here's a list of foreign born people I know.

    My wife's parents (father worked for decades as a doctor in the NHS)
    My wife's brothers (both doctors, one a GP in a poor part of Leeds, the other looks after sick newborns)
    My brother's partner
    Two of my children
    My boss (started a multi billion dollar hedge fund, employs a lot of people in the UK, is a major philanthropist)
    Most of my colleagues
    Loads of the parents I know from school
    Loads of my neighbours
    Loads of my friends

    Meanwhile, I have lived abroad in two different countries for eight years altogether.

    I just don't see what the problem is with people moving about. It's the world we live in. If we didn't want people moving here we shouldn't have colonised half the world, taught them all English and invented the jet engine.
    "I'm sorry Mr. Working Class Lad from a Council Estate. If you didn't want unaffordable housing prices from population growth, your pay and conditions undercut from poor immigrants, and a big social divide in your town from a new community that sticks to itself, you should have intervened 100 years before your birth with the upper middle class actions in Asia."
    Mr WCL would be paying Belgian tax rates if it weren't for immigrant workers propping up the British pensioner regime.
    Depends on the immigrant group. Indian doctors, German engineers and French bankers, for sure. But poor immigrants are net costs to the taxpayer over a lifetime. That's why people want control over immigration, so they can let in the net adds and filter the rest. Big business, on the other hand, wants as much cheap labour as possible.
    Well, almost everyone is a net cost to the taxpayer over a lifetime, including the average doctor, engineer and banker, depending on how many kids they have. (Albeit PB comments seems to contain a disproportionate share of six-figure folks.)
    That's not true. Government spending per person is about 10k. You have to be earning about 40k a year to pay that much in income tax. Of course there will be years you don't pay as much tax post retirement, and there are other taxes like NI and VAT, but the overall number comes out around a similar point.
    From a purely public finance perspective, you want people to emigrate from the UK in their early to mid 60s.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,206

    ping said:

    Oooh. I’ve found myself a paper to read via Google;

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4780611/

    Unfortunately, I don’t understand at least half of the words that they’re using. But I think it disagrees with @LostPassword

    Me being an idiot and not studying any science beyond GCSE means that I have absolutely no idea who is right. But I do feel like I’m learning something. Maybe.

    Such a shame when such an attractive theory is destroyed by evidence!
    One of my friends used to have the maxim that 10 weeks in the lab saves an hour in the library (he much preferred lab work, to checking the literature).
    On fossil fuels I think the jury is still out. I am intrigued by the idea of all the things that need to go right for a species to reach the state of development we have now, and fossil fuels or equivalent energy source is a prerequisite.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    ping said:

    Oooh. I’ve found myself a paper to read via Google;

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4780611/

    Unfortunately, I don’t understand at least half of the words that they’re using. But I think it disagrees with @LostPassword

    Me being an idiot and not studying any science beyond GCSE means that I have absolutely no idea who is right. But I do feel like I’m learning something. Maybe.

    Such a shame when such an attractive theory is destroyed by evidence!
    Lol. I’m still, basically, nonethewiser.

    Thanks for the input, though.

    I’ve learned something. Not quite sure what, but something!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,945

    ping said:

    Oooh. I’ve found myself a paper to read via Google;

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4780611/

    Unfortunately, I don’t understand at least half of the words that they’re using. But I think it disagrees with @LostPassword

    Me being an idiot and not studying any science beyond GCSE means that I have absolutely no idea who is right. But I do feel like I’m learning something. Maybe.

    Such a shame when such an attractive theory is destroyed by evidence!
    The paper is ridiculous. Coal production in the US peaked in 2008, not in the "Paleozoic" period (whenever that is).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,645
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Oooh. I’ve found myself a paper to read via Google;

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4780611/

    Unfortunately, I don’t understand at least half of the words that they’re using. But I think it disagrees with @LostPassword

    Me being an idiot and not studying any science beyond GCSE means that I have absolutely no idea who is right. But I do feel like I’m learning something. Maybe.

    Such a shame when such an attractive theory is destroyed by evidence!
    The paper is ridiculous. Coal production in the US peaked in 2008, not in the "Paleozoic" period (whenever that is).
    Errrr ....

    Coal *extraction* peaked in 2008; coal *production* peaked in the Carboniferous.

    Fossil fuel and all that, as any fule kno.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,965
    In Washington state, most adults have driver's licenses, and those who don't drive can get "personal ID cards", which have pictures, addresses, and physical descriptions, like the licenses. There is an upgrade available for air travel, which requires you to have some additional proof that you actually live where you say you live.

    Not having a license or or at least an ID card makes many ordinary transactions difficult, or even impossible. Recently, for example, in my area, the rules changed and you need to show one to buy alcoholic drinks. (I had almost forgotten how to show an ID, since it had been so long since I was last asked.)

    (For the record: Requiring a photo ID for voting is quite popular with the public. I don't think it would do much to reduce vote fraud. But, in some places, it might help poor people get more integrated with the legal economy.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,819

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Is @IshmaelZ banned again? What did he do?

    Looked like he was implying some pollsters were not honest, from the posts leading up to the banning. Not wise.
    Ah, OK. Yes that's a clear banning offence

    Hope he returns tho. I like his waspish outlook, even if he oversteps when pissed as a duke
    God, I don't. The nastiest most personal and unpleasant poster on here, IMHO, and a bully.

    He should have been permanently banned long ago.
    He can be punchy and aggressive, and needs to be more restrained, especially after the lagershed. However, he is one of the few serious posters on here who is genuinely open-minded. You never quite know how he will approach an issue, and it is often a fresh perspective, and intelligent

    Too many people on here are predictable and doctrinaire, and that dulls the site down

    On balance, an asset
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Is @IshmaelZ banned again? What did he do?

    Looked like he was implying some pollsters were not honest, from the posts leading up to the banning. Not wise.
    Ah, OK. Yes that's a clear banning offence

    Hope he returns tho. I like his waspish outlook, even if he oversteps when pissed as a duke
    God, I don't. The nastiest most personal and unpleasant poster on here, IMHO, and a bully.

    He should have been permanently banned long ago.
    In fairness he had reined that in a fair bit recently. But, I know what you mean.
    No he hadn't. He tried to finger me as a racist only a few days ago. He was endlessly trying to provoke people with personal abuse.

    Anyway, I have no desire to talk about him anymore - he'd enjoy it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    dixiedean said:

    They should close all ticket stations on the Tube as paper tickets are even stupider and equally as pointless as Oysters. I mean, it’s not even possible to pay cash on a bus (rightly).

    Strangely. I see folk paying cash every day.
    Not down here you don’t. Buses have been cashless for years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,945
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Oooh. I’ve found myself a paper to read via Google;

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4780611/

    Unfortunately, I don’t understand at least half of the words that they’re using. But I think it disagrees with @LostPassword

    Me being an idiot and not studying any science beyond GCSE means that I have absolutely no idea who is right. But I do feel like I’m learning something. Maybe.

    Such a shame when such an attractive theory is destroyed by evidence!
    The paper is ridiculous. Coal production in the US peaked in 2008, not in the "Paleozoic" period (whenever that is).
    Errrr ....

    Coal *extraction* peaked in 2008; coal *production* peaked in the Carboniferous.

    Fossil fuel and all that, as any fule kno.
    Whoosh...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,206
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Is @IshmaelZ banned again? What did he do?

    Looked like he was implying some pollsters were not honest, from the posts leading up to the banning. Not wise.
    Ah, OK. Yes that's a clear banning offence

    Hope he returns tho. I like his waspish outlook, even if he oversteps when pissed as a duke
    God, I don't. The nastiest most personal and unpleasant poster on here, IMHO, and a bully.

    He should have been permanently banned long ago.
    He can be punchy and aggressive, and needs to be more restrained, especially after the lagershed. However, he is one of the few serious posters on here who is genuinely open-minded. You never quite know how he will approach an issue, and it is often a fresh perspective, and intelligent

    Too many people on here are predictable and doctrinaire, and that dulls the site down

    On balance, an asset
    I’d argue not as intelligent as he thinks he is. He impugned my reputation as a scientist over the thorny issue of solar panels in fields, and whether any useful crop can grow. As a scientist I tend not to assume the obvious answer, but he decided that nothing could grow as grass needs all the light, wrongly, as it turns out.
    But he does add colour, even if it goes to far sometimes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,595
    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Is @IshmaelZ banned again? What did he do?

    Looked like he was implying some pollsters were not honest, from the posts leading up to the banning. Not wise.
    Ah, OK. Yes that's a clear banning offence

    Hope he returns tho. I like his waspish outlook, even if he oversteps when pissed as a duke
    God, I don't. The nastiest most personal and unpleasant poster on here, IMHO, and a bully.

    He should have been permanently banned long ago.
    He can be punchy and aggressive, and needs to be more restrained, especially after the lagershed. However, he is one of the few serious posters on here who is genuinely open-minded. You never quite know how he will approach an issue, and it is often a fresh perspective, and intelligent

    Too many people on here are predictable and doctrinaire, and that dulls the site down

    On balance, an asset
    I don't agree at all, I think he just likes the freedom to personally attack people from all angles for his own entertainment.

    That's not "clever". We could all do it if we wanted to do so.

    There are far better posters on here who perform the role of devil's advocate with much more skill and effectiveness.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,735

    Interesting website - try the quiz! I scored 2 and 3 on my two attempts. The theme may be of general interest to us here... https://www.wearepolesapart.com/

    Having tried the quiz (once - not wasting my time again) I think that was rather obvious. Pick some voters who have voted against the natural vote for their overall views and then amaze (!) people trying to guess how they voted or would vote.
    A bit like putting the spot the ball ball in the wrong place on purpose.

    Interesting website - try the quiz! I scored 2 and 3 on my two attempts. The theme may be of general interest to us here... https://www.wearepolesapart.com/

    Having tried the quiz (once - not wasting my time again) I think that was rather obvious. Pick some voters who have voted against the natural vote for their overall views and then amaze (!) people trying to guess how they voted or would vote.
    A bit like putting the spot the ball ball in the wrong place on purpose.
    I scored a big fat zero. I got the Green and Lib Dem the wrong way around. Of course we forget the significance of tactical voting.
  • kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    The current iteration of the Tory Party needs to FOAD.


    You voted for Sunak, did you not?
    As the least worst option, your candidate fucked up the economy for a generation, and will keep the party out for a similar generation.

    Truss supporters, like Brexit supporters, really should reflect on the unflushable turds they've given the country.
    No, the economic turds were built up by your mate the Chancellor from 2020 to 2022 and his predecessors over the 10 years before that. The fact that with one quick squeeze of his bowels his successor finally blocked the toilet for 3 weeks this Autumn is neither here nor there.

    Truss and Kwarteng enacted virtually no measures of lasting effect apart from the NI reduction, which is just about the only thing of their legacy to survive after today. What they did do though was to remove the rose tinted spectacles from the markets' eyes, so that they're finally taking a more critical look and recognising the UK economy as the basket case it's become over the long term.
    The UK economy has been a Ponzi scheme for 20 years. Relying on ever greater amounts of immigration (which led to perpetually high property prices) and fat taxes from the City. This was completely unsustainable because

    1. All that immigration has deeply unpleasant or radical or contradictory consequences. Brexit was just one of them

    2. High property prices are just another way to fuck the young, who then consider voting Corbyn, SNP, etc

    3. The taxes from the City took a big hit from the GFC and yada yada yada

    And now the markets have realised this and Ouch

    We will no doubt survive, and eventually find a new economic model. But the pain of the necessary reset is going to be intense
    Immigration isn't a Ponzi scheme, it's simply a natural consequence of different demographics and different economic situations in different parts of the world and the technology existing to make migration relatively cheap. It has always been like this - we act like it's a new thing because the phenomenon of other people coming to the UK is relatively recent (not that recent of course, large scale immigration started soon after ww2, more than 70 years ago) but we were exporting large numbers of people to the rest of the world from the 17th century onwards. When Britons emigrated to the Americas or Australia or Africa was that a Ponzi scheme?
    Arguably the entire human civilisation, which is devouring the world's resources at an unsustainable pace, is a Ponzi scheme, but there's nothing especially unsustainable about post war immigration patterns in the UK. People might not like it, of course, that's an entirely different question.
    Total bollocks

    Immigration into the UK in recent decades has been completely unprecedented in scale and proportion

    1 in 6 people in the UK is now foreign born. This has consequences. And one of them was Brexit. It’s not why I voted for it, but many did. As Remainers keep reminding us. And yet it was the Remainers that opened the borders
    Here's a list of foreign born people I know.

    My wife's parents (father worked for decades as a doctor in the NHS)
    My wife's brothers (both doctors, one a GP in a poor part of Leeds, the other looks after sick newborns)
    My brother's partner
    Two of my children
    My boss (started a multi billion dollar hedge fund, employs a lot of people in the UK, is a major philanthropist)
    Most of my colleagues
    Loads of the parents I know from school
    Loads of my neighbours
    Loads of my friends

    Meanwhile, I have lived abroad in two different countries for eight years altogether.

    I just don't see what the problem is with people moving about. It's the world we live in. If we didn't want people moving here we shouldn't have colonised half the world, taught them all English and invented the jet engine.
    Sweden didn't colonise much, and they've got plenty of immigrants.
    Apart from half of what is now England,
    although it was a fair time ago…
    The Swedelaw?
    Ran as far as Gretna. After that was the law of the turnip.
    One must remember that “Denmark” during the Danelaw period included big chunks of what is nowadays Sweden, Norway and Germany.

    The “Danes” (Norse is more accurate) we’re all over the place, including Normandy: they’d only recently adopted French before conquering England.

    So, Swedelaw is not wholly innacurate.

    As for “the Swedes didn’t colonise much”, er… apart from Ukraine, Russia, Finland, the Baltics and northern Germany, no, not much.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    In reading out meaningless platitudes without any actual strategy?

    I agree she did.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,506
    edited November 2022

    EPG said:

    Screwing younger voters once more, this is the kind of crap the GOP would come out with.



    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-list-gives-few-options-for-younger-voters/

    It does read like an attempt to disproportionately skew the vote toward older people, which is a disgrace.
    I have two thoughts on this.
    (1) Ludicrous that one form of Oyster card is valid and one not. Even if it’s not deliberately done to favour older voters, it sure gives that impression.
    (2) What’s an Oyster card?*

    * Ok, I know what one is, but, like the vast majority of the country, don’t live in fecking London, you self obsessed wankers…
    *
    NOBODY USES OYSTER CARDS IN LONDON, even if they live in London.



    I do.
    Me too. I vaguely think that paying by bank card diverts some of the revenue from TfL to the bank. But I agree with David's point - it's ridiculous and clearly biased to the elderly to allow cards for the elderly but not for the young.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    She comes across like she knows her stuff, whether she does or not. Hunt is a solid professional, but there's only so much he could do on damage control mode.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,645
    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    Screwing younger voters once more, this is the kind of crap the GOP would come out with.



    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-list-gives-few-options-for-younger-voters/

    It does read like an attempt to disproportionately skew the vote toward older people, which is a disgrace.
    I have two thoughts on this.
    (1) Ludicrous that one form of Oyster card is valid and one not. Even if it’s not deliberately done to favour older voters, it sure gives that impression.
    (2) What’s an Oyster card?*

    * Ok, I know what one is, but, like the vast majority of the country, don’t live in fecking London, you self obsessed wankers…
    *
    NOBODY USES OYSTER CARDS IN LONDON, even if they live in London.

    Cashless via any known bank card works the same way so there is absolutely no point whatsoever in having an Oyster.

    With contactless, the world’s your lobster.
    Or even crab, though I doubt the LT card was used for today's coincidentally happy story ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/17/afzelius-crab-rediscovery-225-years-sierra-leone-aoe
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,645

    Interesting website - try the quiz! I scored 2 and 3 on my two attempts. The theme may be of general interest to us here... https://www.wearepolesapart.com/

    Having tried the quiz (once - not wasting my time again) I think that was rather obvious. Pick some voters who have voted against the natural vote for their overall views and then amaze (!) people trying to guess how they voted or would vote.
    A bit like putting the spot the ball ball in the wrong place on purpose.

    Interesting website - try the quiz! I scored 2 and 3 on my two attempts. The theme may be of general interest to us here... https://www.wearepolesapart.com/

    Having tried the quiz (once - not wasting my time again) I think that was rather obvious. Pick some voters who have voted against the natural vote for their overall views and then amaze (!) people trying to guess how they voted or would vote.
    A bit like putting the spot the ball ball in the wrong place on purpose.
    I scored a big fat zero. I got the Green and Lib Dem the wrong way around. Of course we forget the significance of tactical voting.
    I only got 1 - but that was the single Scottish voter.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,735
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    EPG said:

    WillG said:

    EPG said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    The current iteration of the Tory Party needs to FOAD.


    You voted for Sunak, did you not?
    As the least worst option, your candidate fucked up the economy for a generation, and will keep the party out for a similar generation.

    Truss supporters, like Brexit supporters, really should reflect on the unflushable turds they've given the country.
    No, the economic turds were built up by your mate the Chancellor from 2020 to 2022 and his predecessors over the 10 years before that. The fact that with one quick squeeze of his bowels his successor finally blocked the toilet for 3 weeks this Autumn is neither here nor there.

    Truss and Kwarteng enacted virtually no measures of lasting effect apart from the NI reduction, which is just about the only thing of their legacy to survive after today. What they did do though was to remove the rose tinted spectacles from the markets' eyes, so that they're finally taking a more critical look and recognising the UK economy as the basket case it's become over the long term.
    The UK economy has been a Ponzi scheme for 20 years. Relying on ever greater amounts of immigration (which led to perpetually high property prices) and fat taxes from the City. This was completely unsustainable because

    1. All that immigration has deeply unpleasant or radical or contradictory consequences. Brexit was just one of them

    2. High property prices are just another way to fuck the young, who then consider voting Corbyn, SNP, etc

    3. The taxes from the City took a big hit from the GFC and yada yada yada

    And now the markets have realised this and Ouch

    We will no doubt survive, and eventually find a new economic model. But the pain of the necessary reset is going to be intense
    Immigration isn't a Ponzi scheme, it's simply a natural consequence of different demographics and different economic situations in different parts of the world and the technology existing to make migration relatively cheap. It has always been like this - we act like it's a new thing because the phenomenon of other people coming to the UK is relatively recent (not that recent of course, large scale immigration started soon after ww2, more than 70 years ago) but we were exporting large numbers of people to the rest of the world from the 17th century onwards. When Britons emigrated to the Americas or Australia or Africa was that a Ponzi scheme?
    Arguably the entire human civilisation, which is devouring the world's resources at an unsustainable pace, is a Ponzi scheme, but there's nothing especially unsustainable about post war immigration patterns in the UK. People might not like it, of course, that's an entirely different question.
    Total bollocks

    Immigration into the UK in recent decades has been completely unprecedented in scale and proportion

    1 in 6 people in the UK is now foreign born. This has consequences. And one of them was Brexit. It’s not why I voted for it, but many did. As Remainers keep reminding us. And yet it was the Remainers that opened the borders
    Here's a list of foreign born people I know.

    My wife's parents (father worked for decades as a doctor in the NHS)
    My wife's brothers (both doctors, one a GP in a poor part of Leeds, the other looks after sick newborns)
    My brother's partner
    Two of my children
    My boss (started a multi billion dollar hedge fund, employs a lot of people in the UK, is a major philanthropist)
    Most of my colleagues
    Loads of the parents I know from school
    Loads of my neighbours
    Loads of my friends

    Meanwhile, I have lived abroad in two different countries for eight years altogether.

    I just don't see what the problem is with people moving about. It's the world we live in. If we didn't want people moving here we shouldn't have colonised half the world, taught them all English and invented the jet engine.
    "I'm sorry Mr. Working Class Lad from a Council Estate. If you didn't want unaffordable housing prices from population growth, your pay and conditions undercut from poor immigrants, and a big social divide in your town from a new community that sticks to itself, you should have intervened 100 years before your birth with the upper middle class actions in Asia."
    Mr WCL would be paying Belgian tax rates if it weren't for immigrant workers propping up the British pensioner regime.
    Depends on the immigrant group. Indian doctors, German engineers and French bankers, for sure. But poor immigrants are net costs to the taxpayer over a lifetime. That's why people want control over immigration, so they can let in the net adds and filter the rest. Big business, on the other hand, wants as much cheap labour as possible.
    Well, almost everyone is a net cost to the taxpayer over a lifetime, including the average doctor, engineer and banker, depending on how many kids they have. (Albeit PB comments seems to contain a disproportionate share of six-figure folks.)
    That's not true. Government spending per person is about 10k. You have to be earning about 40k a year to pay that much in income tax. Of course there will be years you don't pay as much tax post retirement, and there are other taxes like NI and VAT, but the overall number comes out around a similar point.
    From a purely public finance perspective, you want people to emigrate from the UK in their early to mid 60s.
    From a political point of view I'd say a couple of years earlier would be ideal. Boris is 58.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,360
    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    The judgement of the papers are coming in…

    “Financial Trap set for Labour” simpers the independent. Big G was right.

    “Sanity restored after insanity of Kwartengs budget.” Acclaims the Financial Times. 🥳

    “Futtocks End and other short stories, Blu-ray accl- Wait. That’s an advert on page.

    The Daily Star has a gimp in latex and hornets in your pants. I’ll put them down as, sanguine?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    ...
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    “Middle class plundered to fund welfare and pensions”

    Interesting spin.

    Is the mail turning on the oldies?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,360
    edited November 2022

    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    The judgement of the papers are coming in…

    “Financial Trap set for Labour” simpers the independent. Big G was right.

    “Sanity restored after insanity of Kwartengs budget.” Acclaims the Financial Times. 🥳

    “Futtocks End and other short stories, Blu-ray accl- Wait. That’s an advert on page.

    The Daily Star has a gimp in latex and hornets in your pants. I’ll put them down as, sanguine?
    As they have photo of Hunt wet on his morning jog, it’s rather tame “Soak the strivers” from Daily Mail.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Wow.

    Has The Mirror hacked the Mail front page
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    Sandpit said:

    The current iteration of the Tory Party needs to FOAD.


    You voted for Sunak, did you not?
    As the least worst option, your candidate fucked up the economy for a generation, and will keep the party out for a similar generation.

    Truss supporters, like Brexit supporters, really should reflect on the unflushable turds they've given the country.
    No, the economic turds were built up by your mate the Chancellor from 2020 to 2022 and his predecessors over the 10 years before that. The fact that with one quick squeeze of his bowels his successor finally blocked the toilet for 3 weeks this Autumn is neither here nor there.

    Truss and Kwarteng enacted virtually no measures of lasting effect apart from the NI reduction, which is just about the only thing of their legacy to survive after today. What they did do though was to remove the rose tinted spectacles from the markets' eyes, so that they're finally taking a more critical look and recognising the UK economy as the basket case it's become over the long term.
    The legacy of the brief Truss/Kwarteng period has been to fix the idea in the minds of many voters that the mess we are in now is down to Tory incompetence.
    Yes, there are non-Tory reasons for some of the huge mess we are in (even though they have been in power a long time), but their actions (and apparently cluelessness as to our problems) leading to their own ousting makes it pretty reasonable for people to assume it all down to the party.
    It doesn't actually matter how much of the blame can be laid at Truss's door, it's how people perceived it.

    Hard to believe it was only about 4 weeks but we appeared to be on the brink of financial collapse, Tory vote share plummeted. It was a Black Wednesday event, the Tories are not going to be able to simply change tack and hope the voters forget it ever happened.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2022

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    The current iteration of the Tory Party needs to FOAD.


    You voted for Sunak, did you not?
    As the least worst option, your candidate fucked up the economy for a generation, and will keep the party out for a similar generation.

    Truss supporters, like Brexit supporters, really should reflect on the unflushable turds they've given the country.
    No, the economic turds were built up by your mate the Chancellor from 2020 to 2022 and his predecessors over the 10 years before that. The fact that with one quick squeeze of his bowels his successor finally blocked the toilet for 3 weeks this Autumn is neither here nor there.

    Truss and Kwarteng enacted virtually no measures of lasting effect apart from the NI reduction, which is just about the only thing of their legacy to survive after today. What they did do though was to remove the rose tinted spectacles from the markets' eyes, so that they're finally taking a more critical look and recognising the UK economy as the basket case it's become over the long term.
    The UK economy has been a Ponzi scheme for 20 years. Relying on ever greater amounts of immigration (which led to perpetually high property prices) and fat taxes from the City. This was completely unsustainable because

    1. All that immigration has deeply unpleasant or radical or contradictory consequences. Brexit was just one of them

    2. High property prices are just another way to fuck the young, who then consider voting Corbyn, SNP, etc

    3. The taxes from the City took a big hit from the GFC and yada yada yada

    And now the markets have realised this and Ouch

    We will no doubt survive, and eventually find a new economic model. But the pain of the necessary reset is going to be intense
    Immigration isn't a Ponzi scheme, it's simply a natural consequence of different demographics and different economic situations in different parts of the world and the technology existing to make migration relatively cheap. It has always been like this - we act like it's a new thing because the phenomenon of other people coming to the UK is relatively recent (not that recent of course, large scale immigration started soon after ww2, more than 70 years ago) but we were exporting large numbers of people to the rest of the world from the 17th century onwards. When Britons emigrated to the Americas or Australia or Africa was that a Ponzi scheme?
    Arguably the entire human civilisation, which is devouring the world's resources at an unsustainable pace, is a Ponzi scheme, but there's nothing especially unsustainable about post war immigration patterns in the UK. People might not like it, of course, that's an entirely different question.
    Total bollocks

    Immigration into the UK in recent decades has been completely unprecedented in scale and proportion

    1 in 6 people in the UK is now foreign born. This has consequences. And one of them was Brexit. It’s not why I voted for it, but many did. As Remainers keep reminding us. And yet it was the Remainers that opened the borders
    Here's a list of foreign born people I know.

    My wife's parents (father worked for decades as a doctor in the NHS)
    My wife's brothers (both doctors, one a GP in a poor part of Leeds, the other looks after sick newborns)
    My brother's partner
    Two of my children
    My boss (started a multi billion dollar hedge fund, employs a lot of people in the UK, is a major philanthropist)
    Most of my colleagues
    Loads of the parents I know from school
    Loads of my neighbours
    Loads of my friends

    Meanwhile, I have lived abroad in two different countries for eight years altogether.

    I just don't see what the problem is with people moving about. It's the world we live in. If we didn't want people moving here we shouldn't have colonised half the world, taught them all English and invented the jet engine.
    Sweden didn't colonise much, and they've got plenty of immigrants.
    Apart from half of what is now England,
    although it was a fair time ago…
    The Swedelaw?
    Ran as far as Gretna. After that was the law of the turnip.
    One must remember that “Denmark” during the Danelaw period included big chunks of what is nowadays Sweden, Norway and Germany.

    The “Danes” (Norse is more accurate) we’re all over the place, including Normandy: they’d only recently adopted French before conquering England.

    So, Swedelaw is not wholly innacurate.

    As for “the Swedes didn’t colonise much”, er… apart from Ukraine, Russia, Finland, the Baltics and northern Germany, no, not much.
    Sorry, completely unconnected, but does anyone know what happened to @astateofdenmark ?

    He was around pb in the late 2000’s / early 2010’s. Did he morph into another poster, without me noticing? He was a decent tipster.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,595
    edited November 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Wow.

    Has The Mirror hacked the Mail front page
    BBB? Is that the Dacre line?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Tomorrow's front pages look like the worst I have ever seen for the Conservative party.
    Watch @steverichards14 and I review them on @SkyNews at 10.30pm tonight. #skypapers
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1593365288367624193
  • UK to have worst economic decline in Europe next year -and by some margin...

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1593214478195519489?s=46&t=7acgFT8LWBCLjHRc_hSA4g
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739

    Interesting website - try the quiz! I scored 2 and 3 on my two attempts. The theme may be of general interest to us here... https://www.wearepolesapart.com/

    Having tried the quiz (once - not wasting my time again) I think that was rather obvious. Pick some voters who have voted against the natural vote for their overall views and then amaze (!) people trying to guess how they voted or would vote.
    A bit like putting the spot the ball ball in the wrong place on purpose.
    Not likely to be popular with people to whom everything is simple and obvious.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,262
    edited November 2022
    ...

    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    The judgement of the papers are coming in…

    “Financial Trap set for Labour” simpers the independent. Big G was right.

    “Sanity restored after insanity of Kwartengs budget.” Acclaims the Financial Times. 🥳

    “Futtocks End and other short stories, Blu-ray accl- Wait. That’s an advert on page.

    The Daily Star has a gimp in latex and hornets in your pants. I’ll put them down as, sanguine?
    As they have photo of Hunt wet on his morning jog, it’s rather tame “Soak the strivers” from Daily Mail.
    If think FT and Independent support was fairly predictable. The DM's response is interesting. Love that it's Sarah Vine too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,357

    dixiedean said:

    They should close all ticket stations on the Tube as paper tickets are even stupider and equally as pointless as Oysters. I mean, it’s not even possible to pay cash on a bus (rightly).

    Strangely. I see folk paying cash every day.
    Not down here you don’t. Buses have been cashless for years.
    It is curious that the publicly owned system in London appears to be extraordinarily cheaper, more reliable, regular, more modern and convenient than the private sector equivalent up here.
    How can that have defied the natural law of stuff?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,735
    It's outrageous that strivers like Paul Dacre are having to foot the bill for Brexit, covid and Putin's war.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940

    UK to have worst economic decline in Europe next year -and by some margin...

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1593214478195519489?s=46&t=7acgFT8LWBCLjHRc_hSA4g

    Yes, and at least the government is now admitting it is dire trouble (if still not the full extent). Means they are at least trying to do something about the trouble.

    Probably won't work, but the one positive of the Trussterf*ck is the goverment has to be slightly more honest.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739
    Scott_xP said:

    Tomorrow's front pages look like the worst I have ever seen for the Conservative party.

    Presumably you were out of the country (or perhaps the Solar System) during the glad, confident morning of the Truss/Kwarteng revolution.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,988

    They should close all ticket stations on the Tube as paper tickets are even stupider and equally as pointless as Oysters. I mean, it’s not even possible to pay cash on a bus (rightly).

    I use a 60+ oyster to rattle about.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    “Middle class plundered to fund welfare and pensions”

    Interesting spin.

    Is the mail turning on the oldies?
    That is quite interesting re. The oldies. Suggests even the Mail know the gig is up

    (Not to say I don’t think some vulnerable pensioners need it - but it should be means tested at least)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Friday's Telegraph - 'The rhetoric of Osborne... with the policies of Brown'

    @Telegraph | #TomorrowsPapersToday | #FrontPages https://twitter.com/FirstEdition/status/1593366894811168769/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Well done Daily Mail. I certainly won’t be voting Conservative at the next election. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1593366880479313922/photo/1
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,360

    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    The judgement of the papers are coming in…

    “Financial Trap set for Labour” simpers the independent. Big G was right.

    “Sanity restored after insanity of Kwartengs budget.” Acclaims the Financial Times. 🥳

    “Futtocks End and other short stories, Blu-ray accl- Wait. That’s an advert on page.

    The Daily Star has a gimp in latex and hornets in your pants. I’ll put them down as, sanguine?
    As they have photo of Hunt wet on his morning jog, it’s rather tame “Soak the strivers” from Daily Mail.
    Guardian also has “trap set for Labour”. Big G was not wrong you know.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    They should close all ticket stations on the Tube as paper tickets are even stupider and equally as pointless as Oysters. I mean, it’s not even possible to pay cash on a bus (rightly).

    Strangely. I see folk paying cash every day.
    Not down here you don’t. Buses have been cashless for years.
    It is curious that the publicly owned system in London appears to be extraordinarily cheaper, more reliable, regular, more modern and convenient than the private sector equivalent up here.
    How can that have defied the natural law of stuff?
    Something to do with a Woke Conspiracy and MSM (whatever that stands for).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tomorrow's front pages look like the worst I have ever seen for the Conservative party.

    Presumably you were out of the country (or perhaps the Solar System) during the glad, confident morning of the Truss/Kwarteng revolution.
    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1573415231208013839
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,502
    edited November 2022
    Malayasian elections on the 19th:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Malaysian_general_election

    A messy array of politicians and parties are competing to win the election—and avoid jail:

    https://archive.ph/geiBK
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,648
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A Trump Lake ticket makes total sense for both of them

    It revives her nearly dead-on-arrival political career

    It softens Trump with a telegenic, articulate
    and plausible woman who can probably sell Trumpism better than him

    I wouldn’t write them entirely off. Unfortunately

    Normally, VP picks are announced only after the nomination has been secured. So, if it is to Lake, we'll probably not know for 18 months, or even longer.
    Unless Trump flounces from the GOP and just announces his own party.

    Though the idea Kari Lake is plausible is laughable. She's a loon.
    She's plausible enough to have come from nowhere, taken the GOP Arizona primary, and now come within inches of being Arizona governor


    She is definitely "plausible"

    I can't think of a better fit as a VP candidate for Trump

    He has a big problem with women voters
    He needs a winner though, not someone to do rabble rousing - he's already good at that. Who brings him something like Pence presumably brought evangelicals?

    After all, 'within inches of being Arizona governor' is not much of a cv when the Republicans won by 14, 12 and 12, in the last three gubernatorials there.

    I do love the word gubernatorial.
    Tulsi.
    She’s at least held national office. And is mad as a box of frogs, so ticks the boxes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,595
    Scott_xP said:

    Well done Daily Mail. I certainly won’t be voting Conservative at the next election. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1593366880479313922/photo/1

    They are teeing up Boris.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,988
    Lane is 6.2 to be the GOP veep nominee - but only £3 available. Suppose that's one of us trying to pull a fast one.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,027
    Terrible weather today so turnout in local elections will be well down. Should have some early results - except in Shetland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,988

    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    The judgement of the papers are coming in…

    “Financial Trap set for Labour” simpers the independent. Big G was right.

    “Sanity restored after insanity of Kwartengs budget.” Acclaims the Financial Times. 🥳

    “Futtocks End and other short stories, Blu-ray accl- Wait. That’s an advert on page.

    The Daily Star has a gimp in latex and hornets in your pants. I’ll put them down as, sanguine?
    As they have photo of Hunt wet on his morning jog, it’s rather tame “Soak the strivers” from Daily Mail.
    Guardian also has “trap set for Labour”. Big G was not wrong you know.
    Yep, no flies on BigG.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    ...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,735
    According to Goodwin our debt servicing costs have gone from £56bn last year to £120bn this year. All this time I thought that we were borrowing at fixed low rates of interest. Why did no-one point this out?????? So now we are screwed because so much of our debt is indexed to inflation. Why? Was that the reason interest on government borrowing seemed so cheap?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    ...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,360
    kinabalu said:

    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    The judgement of the papers are coming in…

    “Financial Trap set for Labour” simpers the independent. Big G was right.

    “Sanity restored after insanity of Kwartengs budget.” Acclaims the Financial Times. 🥳

    “Futtocks End and other short stories, Blu-ray accl- Wait. That’s an advert on page.

    The Daily Star has a gimp in latex and hornets in your pants. I’ll put them down as, sanguine?
    As they have photo of Hunt wet on his morning jog, it’s rather tame “Soak the strivers” from Daily Mail.
    Guardian also has “trap set for Labour”. Big G was not wrong you know.
    Yep, no flies on BigG.
    He took stick for saying this was opportunity to set questions for Labour - but that’s what this budget is.
  • Still, the Express are happy.


  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2022

    According to Goodwin our debt servicing costs have gone from £56bn last year to £120bn this year. All this time I thought that we were borrowing at fixed low rates of interest. Why did no-one point this out?????? So now we are screwed because so much of our debt is indexed to inflation. Why? Was that the reason interest on government borrowing seemed so cheap?

    AIUI, about 25% of our gilts are index-linked.
  • A quick note about Oyster cards. Old folk from outside London can ride the buses for free using their bus pass but have to pay to use the tube. But if you have a senior railcard, which gets you 33% off all rail fares, you can have this 'registered' with your Oyster card so you get 33% off tube travel too. Yet another insult to workers and strivers, needless to say...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,360
    Scott_xP said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tomorrow's front pages look like the worst I have ever seen for the Conservative party.

    Presumably you were out of the country (or perhaps the Solar System) during the glad, confident morning of the Truss/Kwarteng revolution.
    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1573415231208013839
    I disagree, many of the papers hailed Kwasi budget as best proper Conservative budget for decades, it wasn’t till following week the gloss came off with the unlucky run on pound, but self made spike in borrowing cost.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Metro: YOU'VE NEVER HAD IT SO BAD #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1593356414616993794/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    The Scotsman: Nightmare before Christmas #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1593363909905453057/photo/1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,810
    Scott_xP said:

    Tomorrow's front pages look like the worst I have ever seen for the Conservative party.
    Watch @steverichards14 and I review them on @SkyNews at 10.30pm tonight. #skypapers
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1593365288367624193

    The Express, the odd one out
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,735
    ping said:

    According to Goodwin our debt servicing costs have gone from £56bn last year to £120bn this year. All this time I thought that we were borrowing at fixed low rates of interest. Why did no-one point this out?????? So now we are screwed because so much of our debt is indexed to inflation. Why? Was that the reason interest on government borrowing seemed so cheap?

    AIUI, about 25% of our gilts are index-linked.
    I posed the question earlier. I'm not sure Goodwin is right with those figures. That's an astonishing increase in one year.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Friday's Guardian - From bad to worse.

    @guardian | #TomorrowsPapersToday | #FrontPages https://twitter.com/FirstEdition/status/1593366078662578186/photo/1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,988

    kinabalu said:

    Jonathan said:

    So what the budget consensus? I though Reeves did well.

    The judgement of the papers are coming in…

    “Financial Trap set for Labour” simpers the independent. Big G was right.

    “Sanity restored after insanity of Kwartengs budget.” Acclaims the Financial Times. 🥳

    “Futtocks End and other short stories, Blu-ray accl- Wait. That’s an advert on page.

    The Daily Star has a gimp in latex and hornets in your pants. I’ll put them down as, sanguine?
    As they have photo of Hunt wet on his morning jog, it’s rather tame “Soak the strivers” from Daily Mail.
    Guardian also has “trap set for Labour”. Big G was not wrong you know.
    Yep, no flies on BigG.
    He took stick for saying this was opportunity to set questions for Labour - but that’s what this budget is.
    Main point of it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tomorrow's front pages look like the worst I have ever seen for the Conservative party.
    Watch @steverichards14 and I review them on @SkyNews at 10.30pm tonight. #skypapers
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1593365288367624193

    The Express, the odd one out
    I guess Pyrrhic didn't fit on the page
    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1593370541423038464
  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tomorrow's front pages look like the worst I have ever seen for the Conservative party.
    Watch @steverichards14 and I review them on @SkyNews at 10.30pm tonight. #skypapers
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1593365288367624193

    The Express, the odd one out
    They know their audience. It's basically Grandma from the Giles cartoons they used to run;

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,357
    Tax rises. Spending cuts. Everyone getting worse off.
    "At last a true Tory Budget!" Is the appropriate headline.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    So here it is. The Conservatives have delivered us to Brexit's final destination. Penury, irrelevance and a cancelled future.

    So much control. Such sovereignty.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/nov/17/autumn-statement-jeremy-hunt-confirms-uk-already-in-recession-as-he-unveils-tax-rises-and-spending-curbs
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    I wonder what Liz Truss thinks tonight
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1593371988256559105
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,357
    Weather reminds me of Lancashire
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    A Trump Lake ticket makes total sense for both of them

    It revives her nearly dead-on-arrival political career

    It softens Trump with a telegenic, articulate
    and plausible woman who can probably sell Trumpism better than him

    I wouldn’t write them entirely off. Unfortunately

    Lake isn't a credible potential POTUS though in the event that DJT has a gripper. Her CV before failing to become governor of AZ was reading the weather on local TV.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,735
    If you exclude what is owed to the Bank of England the UK's debt is something like £1.3tn. So how can debt interest be £120bn per year? That's 9.0% interest. Seriously?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Friday's Times: Years of tax pain ahead #TomorrowsPapersToday #TheTimes #Times https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1593372957279014913/photo/1
  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tomorrow's front pages look like the worst I have ever seen for the Conservative party.
    Watch @steverichards14 and I review them on @SkyNews at 10.30pm tonight. #skypapers
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1593365288367624193

    The Express, the odd one out
    The Express supported Truss, but their reader has the memory of a goldfish.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:
    That. Is. A. Dis. Grace.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,431
    Scott_xP said:

    Well done Daily Mail. I certainly won’t be voting Conservative at the next election. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1593366880479313922/photo/1

    He likely will be voting ReformUK I expect as a Thatcherite rightwinger
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,431
    Scott_xP said:

    Friday's Times: Years of tax pain ahead #TomorrowsPapersToday #TheTimes #Times https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1593372957279014913/photo/1

    Which would be the case for a Labour government after the next general election as much as the current Tory one
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,810
    Newsnight spotting that the revised forecast figures abandon the previous assumption that immigration would fall.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,945
    edited November 2022

    If you exclude what is owed to the Bank of England the UK's debt is something like £1.3tn. So how can debt interest be £120bn per year? That's 9.0% interest. Seriously?

    UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022

    There's £741bn of gilts held by the BoE, so it's more like £1.7trn. Still £120bn of interest seems a little high.

    (Of course, quite possible that an unsterilized number is being used, and then £120bn on £2.4/5trn seems - while too high - not a million miles off.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,648

    ping said:

    According to Goodwin our debt servicing costs have gone from £56bn last year to £120bn this year. All this time I thought that we were borrowing at fixed low rates of interest. Why did no-one point this out?????? So now we are screwed because so much of our debt is indexed to inflation. Why? Was that the reason interest on government borrowing seemed so cheap?

    AIUI, about 25% of our gilts are index-linked.
    I posed the question earlier. I'm not sure Goodwin is right with those figures. That's an astonishing increase in one year.
    They include the increase in repayment liability on the IL gilts, I think.
    Which is a very big figure indeed when inflation is 10%.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,735
    rcs1000 said:

    If you exclude what is owed to the Bank of England the UK's debt is something like £1.3tn. So how can debt interest be £120bn per year? That's 9.0% interest. Seriously?

    UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022

    There's £741bn of gilts held by the BoE, so it's more like £1.7trn. Still £120bn of interest seems a little high.

    (Of course, quite possible that an unsterilized number is being used, and then £120bn on £2.4/5trn seems - while too high - not a million miles off.)
    Surely it's net debt we should be worried about? What I can't fathom is the idea of it doubling in a year. Also why when our economy is still smaller than pre-covid are we expected to grow less than any of our competitors next year? Brexit related? Okay, well what exactly?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,648

    rcs1000 said:

    If you exclude what is owed to the Bank of England the UK's debt is something like £1.3tn. So how can debt interest be £120bn per year? That's 9.0% interest. Seriously?

    UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022

    There's £741bn of gilts held by the BoE, so it's more like £1.7trn. Still £120bn of interest seems a little high.

    (Of course, quite possible that an unsterilized number is being used, and then £120bn on £2.4/5trn seems - while too high - not a million miles off.)
    Surely it's net debt we should be worried about? What I can't fathom is the idea of it doubling in a year. Also why when our economy is still smaller than pre-covid are we expected to grow less than any of our competitors next year? Brexit related? Okay, well what exactly?
    Big drop in consumer spending is part of it, presumably ?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,735
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you exclude what is owed to the Bank of England the UK's debt is something like £1.3tn. So how can debt interest be £120bn per year? That's 9.0% interest. Seriously?

    UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022

    There's £741bn of gilts held by the BoE, so it's more like £1.7trn. Still £120bn of interest seems a little high.

    (Of course, quite possible that an unsterilized number is being used, and then £120bn on £2.4/5trn seems - while too high - not a million miles off.)
    Surely it's net debt we should be worried about? What I can't fathom is the idea of it doubling in a year. Also why when our economy is still smaller than pre-covid are we expected to grow less than any of our competitors next year? Brexit related? Okay, well what exactly?
    Big drop in consumer spending is part of it, presumably ?
    But why should that be so much worse for us?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    They should close all ticket stations on the Tube as paper tickets are even stupider and equally as pointless as Oysters. I mean, it’s not even possible to pay cash on a bus (rightly).

    Strangely. I see folk paying cash every day.
    Not down here you don’t. Buses have been cashless for years.
    It is curious that the publicly owned system in London appears to be extraordinarily cheaper, more reliable, regular, more modern and convenient than the private sector equivalent up here.
    How can that have defied the natural law of stuff?
    A mystery for the ages

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    That Mail front page.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,648

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you exclude what is owed to the Bank of England the UK's debt is something like £1.3tn. So how can debt interest be £120bn per year? That's 9.0% interest. Seriously?

    UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022

    There's £741bn of gilts held by the BoE, so it's more like £1.7trn. Still £120bn of interest seems a little high.

    (Of course, quite possible that an unsterilized number is being used, and then £120bn on £2.4/5trn seems - while too high - not a million miles off.)
    Surely it's net debt we should be worried about? What I can't fathom is the idea of it doubling in a year. Also why when our economy is still smaller than pre-covid are we expected to grow less than any of our competitors next year? Brexit related? Okay, well what exactly?
    Big drop in consumer spending is part of it, presumably ?
    But why should that be so much worse for us?
    Household spending a higher percentage of GDP compared with France and Germany ?

    Brexit is also part of it, according to the BoE.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,239
    IanB2 said:

    Newsnight spotting that the revised forecast figures abandon the previous assumption that immigration would fall.

    Can you imagine the furore from the right wing press if Labour had enacted that policy . They’re strangely quiet on the matter ! Probably because they waged a disgusting hate filled campaign against EU nationals during the EU ref and lied to their readers that immigration would fall .

    So now Brits have lost their FOM rights and for what ! The final piece of the Brexit fraud is now in place .
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,290
    nico679 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Newsnight spotting that the revised forecast figures abandon the previous assumption that immigration would fall.

    Can you imagine the furore from the right wing press if Labour had enacted that policy . They’re strangely quiet on the matter ! Probably because they waged a disgusting hate filled campaign against EU nationals during the EU ref and lied to their readers that immigration would fall .

    So now Brits have lost their FOM rights and for what ! The final piece of the Brexit fraud is now in place .
    Brexit is like a complex film noir involving water rights, infidelity and incest. Nothing was what it was portrayed to be.

    Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.

  • The Tories have increased Direct Taxation in this Autumn Statement , and by doing so have set a precedent which Labour can now follow much less timidly than has been the case since the 1980s. A Top rate of Income Tax of 60% - which Thatcher happily tolerated until 1988 - now becomes a much more realistic policy option.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,027
    Lab hold in Oldham.
This discussion has been closed.