I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
Big suspicion is, what good news there is got announced in speech, first impressions matter so they are shaping the first impressions. More controversial things like the Defence Budget cut you flagged, hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly.
On Topic. And as we were saying “what good news there is got announced in speech, controversial things hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly”
And so it begins
This was in the March Budget too (it's a bigger increase now because it's linked to RPI which is higher than previously forecast but it's not a change in policy, it was in there already).
That will please the Eco Loons though.
Certainly this one!
Driving has got much cheaper over the last 20 years, and the number of cars in a city like Edinburgh (with superb public transport) has grown, leading to massive congestion.
It wouldn't be my solution though, given it shafts people in rural areas. I'd instead do some combination of:
- VED on axle weight as well as emissions to discourage these huge trucks - congestion charges - no VAT on pushbikes - cancel road infrastructure projects in cities, replace with bike infrastructure
This would drive down demand for fuel, thereby making it cheaper for people who really do need cars to get around
The problem is, outside of the biggest cities, pretty much everyone needs a car to get around.
Britain is in a grim situation with massive amounts of debt interest payments and the big story from the budget is the expectation that the Chancellor will be forced to forego an expected £5.7bn from increased fuel duty, and presumably borrow more instead.
The disconnect from reality is unreal.
It does bring in a very useful 5.7bn. At same time Farage & Friends are right, at what cost to small business.
Maybe it's the worst possible way to raise nearly £6bn, but then the story is where else that £6bn is going to come from.
Britain is still right on the edge of the precipice in terms of losing credibility in terms of being able to pay its debts. If the government gives way on £6bn right now then there's not much credibility in terms of resisting pressure on other tax increase and spending cuts.
Nope. Not buying any “we are on edge of precipice, no other option, only choice eat this crap or death” claptrap.
While you are posting that argument this budget is handing out an EIGHTEEN BILLION TAX CUT TO THE BIG BANKS
The US midterms do seem to have been a real mixed bag.
The Democrats have lost several House seats in California which Biden won by over 10% in 2020.
The Democrats have also done very poorly in New York. Even if their original map had gone through they wouldn't have won anything like the number of seats it was expected to generate.
Have the Republicans actually flipped any California House districts the Democrats notionally won in 2020 (appreciate there have been boundary changes)?
I'm not sure any incumbent has lost so far. 13th district (an open race but should be a bit more Democrat) looks tight and could yet be a loss. But other than that, isn't it broadly going by the form book? The fact Californian districts have taken the GOP over the line doesn't mean they are doing that well there - it's just that California counts notoriously slowly... their wins there so far haven't been shocks.
It's probably the case that the GOP won some California districts that Biden carried. But these are in places where people split their ballot in 2020 too - California Republicans in relatively marginal districts are understandably a bit more moderate and Trump-sceptical than colleagues in deep red states.
In New York I agree Democrats clearly did badly - four flips against them.
I think it depends a bit on how flip is defined - I'm not sure they calculate notional 2020 House results and then define flip from there.
I appreciate there will be some split ticket voting but Dems are losing House seats Biden won by over 10% - I strongly doubt the Reps would have won such seats in 2020 if boundaries had been as they are now.
CA13 - Rep leads vote count, Biden won by 11% CA 22 - Rep leads vote count, Biden won by 13% CA27 - Rep declared winner, Biden won by 12%
And there were at least one or two others which were similar but now deleted from CNN page so I no longer have details.
Cook has those seats as all having 4%-5% D Partisan leans, so the Republicans are outperforming, but not as much as the 2020 Presidential election suggests.
Britain is in a grim situation with massive amounts of debt interest payments and the big story from the budget is the expectation that the Chancellor will be forced to forego an expected £5.7bn from increased fuel duty, and presumably borrow more instead.
The disconnect from reality is unreal.
It does bring in a very useful 5.7bn. At same time Farage & Friends are right, at what cost to small business.
"Farage & Friends" sounds like the world's worst talk show.
That's been the case for ages. The extent is increased, but it's a bit late to be outraged at the principle of borrowing to pay interest on previous borrowing.
Time to point out that our debt to GDP ratio is the second lowest in the G7. So if we have a problem.....
Apple are amazing. My iPad is screwed because I can’t get the sim out and I need a new sim. Seems like a modest problem but it’s actually a killer. Can’t be solved
So they’ve just given me a brand new replacement iPad. Just like that
Britain is in a grim situation with massive amounts of debt interest payments and the big story from the budget is the expectation that the Chancellor will be forced to forego an expected £5.7bn from increased fuel duty, and presumably borrow more instead.
The disconnect from reality is unreal.
It does bring in a very useful 5.7bn. At same time Farage & Friends are right, at what cost to small business.
Maybe it's the worst possible way to raise nearly £6bn, but then the story is where else that £6bn is going to come from.
Britain is still right on the edge of the precipice in terms of losing credibility in terms of being able to pay its debts. If the government gives way on £6bn right now then there's not much credibility in terms of resisting pressure on other tax increase and spending cuts.
Nope. Not buying any “we are on edge of precipice, no other option, only choice eat this crap or death” claptrap.
While you are posting that argument this budget is handing out an EIGHTEEN BILLION TAX CUT TO THE BIG BANKS
That's £18bn over five years compared to £5.7bn in the first year. You're still at least £10.5bn short.
"My own view remains that the next general election outcome will be a hung parliament with Starmer becoming PM."
I agree. Just too big a hill to climb, especially without a few dozen Scottish seats like in years gone by.
In terms of climbing the hill, ie gaining seats, the Scottish situation helps not hinders. Labour only gained 7 Scottish seats in the 1997 election, because they held most of them already. They could easily gain more than that in the next election, coming from such a low base.
I just checked and apparently they've got zero seats in Moldova at the moment, so that could be an even more promising source of seats at the next GE.
Thanks that's a useful comment.
It was exactly as useful as yours.
No it wasn't. Mine was in response to a comment saying Labour had a massive hill to climb and the loss of seats in Scotland made that harder. I pointed out that in terms of climbing the hill, that left them with more potential gains in Scotland than they achieved in 1997, when because they already held so many Scottish seats they gained only 7 seats. Some recent polling suggests they could gain more than 7 at the next election. So in terms of winning additional seats from where they are now, Scotland could be a bigger help than in 1997. You don't think that is a useful argument to make in a thread devoted to the question of how many seats Labour can pick up at the next election? Genuinely perplexed at your response, TBH.
I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
Big suspicion is, what good news there is got announced in speech, first impressions matter so they are shaping the first impressions. More controversial things like the Defence Budget cut you flagged, hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly.
On Topic. And as we were saying “what good news there is got announced in speech, controversial things hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly”
And so it begins
This was in the March Budget too (it's a bigger increase now because it's linked to RPI which is higher than previously forecast but it's not a change in policy, it was in there already).
About time too. There are finite amounts of fossil fuels in the ground, and burning them is destroying our environment, so anything that will dissuade their use and encourage the use of cleaner alternatives is to be commended. And it brings in a few bob too.
That's been the case for ages. The extent is increased, but it's a bit late to be outraged at the principle of borrowing to pay interest on previous borrowing.
Time to point out that our debt to GDP ratio is the second lowest in the G7. So if we have a problem.....
“energy price guarantee will be extended for 12 months from April. the average household will pay £3,000, Hunt says.”
Using the same method? At what cost? And how is it paid for? This is where the OBR has been pretty useless as an OBR today - the excuse we can’t possibly know the cost just doesn’t wash, because not knowing at what cost or funding mechanism is exactly what spooked the markets after Kwarsi budget.
As I have been saying all week, funny how OBR cost has come in at my predicted £60bn - exactly the same as the supposed black hole in the media.
But my point is this. That 58.4 is not for the energy price guarantee. It’s for energy price guarantee AND energy bill relief AND cost of living support measures. There is no way all that comes in remotely close to only 58.4 and and then even more ludicrous 25 - I could be proved completely wrong, but I just don’t believe it.
If it eventually turns out to be nearer £150bn and the argument is they couldn’t possibly have known, that won’t wash with me, I would feel let down by this OBR.
Frustratingly I have little to prove this point, except German bail out assessed at £200bn, other than keeping this post and coming back to this in two years or something 🤯
"My own view remains that the next general election outcome will be a hung parliament with Starmer becoming PM."
I agree. Just too big a hill to climb, especially without a few dozen Scottish seats like in years gone by.
In terms of climbing the hill, ie gaining seats, the Scottish situation helps not hinders. Labour only gained 7 Scottish seats in the 1997 election, because they held most of them already. They could easily gain more than that in the next election, coming from such a low base.
I just checked and apparently they've got zero seats in Moldova at the moment, so that could be an even more promising source of seats at the next GE.
Thanks that's a useful comment.
It was exactly as useful as yours.
No it wasn't. Mine was in response to a comment saying Labour had a massive hill to climb and the loss of seats in Scotland made that harder. I pointed out that in terms of climbing the hill, that left them with more potential gains in Scotland than they achieved in 1997, when because they already held so many Scottish seats they gained only 7 seats. Some recent polling suggests they could gain more than 7 at the next election. So in terms of winning additional seats from where they are now, Scotland could be a bigger help than in 1997. You don't think that is a useful argument to make in a thread devoted to the question of how many seats Labour can pick up at the next election? Genuinely perplexed at your response, TBH.
I guess @Endillion was assuming that Labour stand no chance of winning any seats in Scotland, and trying to make that point in the form of a joke. It is a view, but not one supported by current polling.
Apple are amazing. My iPad is screwed because I can’t get the sim out and I need a new sim. Seems like a modest problem but it’s actually a killer. Can’t be solved
So they’ve just given me a brand new replacement iPad. Just like that
That's been the case for ages. The extent is increased, but it's a bit late to be outraged at the principle of borrowing to pay interest on previous borrowing.
Time to point out that our debt to GDP ratio is the second lowest in the G7. So if we have a problem.....
That is the remarkable thing about Trussonomics. Kwasi's budget spooked the markets about an economy which was relatively stable, even if not in the best of health.
Doesn't that depend on the maturity profile and also on what proportion of their debt is index-linked? (Of course they might be even worse in that respect than us, I'm not familiar with the details).
But, yeah. Not good for any country to have high debt.
Apple are amazing. My iPad is screwed because I can’t get the sim out and I need a new sim. Seems like a modest problem but it’s actually a killer. Can’t be solved
So they’ve just given me a brand new replacement iPad. Just like that
“energy price guarantee will be extended for 12 months from April. the average household will pay £3,000, Hunt says.”
Using the same method? At what cost? And how is it paid for? This is where the OBR has been pretty useless as an OBR today - the excuse we can’t possibly know the cost just doesn’t wash, because not knowing at what cost or funding mechanism is exactly what spooked the markets after Kwarsi budget.
As I have been saying all week, funny how OBR cost has come in at my predicted £60bn - exactly the same as the supposed black hole in the media.
But my point is this. That 58.4 is not for the energy price guarantee. It’s for energy price guarantee AND energy bill relief AND cost of living support measures. There is no way all that comes in remotely close to only 58.4 and and then even more ludicrous 25 - I could be proved completely wrong, but I just don’t believe it.
If it eventually turns out to be nearer £150bn and the argument is they couldn’t possibly have known, that won’t wash with me, I would feel let down by this OBR.
Frustratingly I have little to prove this point, except German bail out assessed at £200bn, other than keeping this post and coming back to this in two years or something 🤯
I think I'm slightly more inclined to leave the number crunching to the OBR rather than yourself.
Especially following your posts during the Nevada Senate count.
Doesn't that depend on the maturity profile and also on what proportion of their debt is index-linked? (Of course they might be even worse in that respect than us, I'm not familiar with the details).
But, yeah. Not good for any country to have high debt.
And can anybody realistically see it coming down significantly in the foreseeable future? Its takes the perfect storm of a very particular type of PM / Chancellor willing to take some tough unpopular decisions and a good economic tailwinds to do so.
“energy price guarantee will be extended for 12 months from April. the average household will pay £3,000, Hunt says.”
Using the same method? At what cost? And how is it paid for? This is where the OBR has been pretty useless as an OBR today - the excuse we can’t possibly know the cost just doesn’t wash, because not knowing at what cost or funding mechanism is exactly what spooked the markets after Kwarsi budget.
As I have been saying all week, funny how OBR cost has come in at my predicted £60bn - exactly the same as the supposed black hole in the media.
But my point is this. That 58.4 is not for the energy price guarantee. It’s for energy price guarantee AND energy bill relief AND cost of living support measures. There is no way all that comes in remotely close to only 58.4 and and then even more ludicrous 25 - I could be proved completely wrong, but I just don’t believe it.
If it eventually turns out to be nearer £150bn and the argument is they couldn’t possibly have known, that won’t wash with me, I would feel let down by this OBR.
Frustratingly I have little to prove this point, except German bail out assessed at £200bn, other than keeping this post and coming back to this in two years or something 🤯
I think I'm slightly more inclined to leave the number crunching to the OBR rather than yourself.
Especially following your posts during the Nevada Senate count.
I may have the tattoo to say I got the Nevada senate count wrong, but I have got a few other things right I think, which you clearly don’t have the grace or balance to acknowledge.
But I am right. The German relief package was £200bn, previous estimates of the Truss plan was over £200bn - and now we are told it all comes in over two years at less than £85bn.
Something doesn’t seem right here. We have not heard the last of it. But we probably have to keep your post two years to prove you are absolutely naive and gullible.
Welfare and the elderly get pay rises in line with inflation. Everyone else gets to bend over. Worse than managed decline, it's managed senescence.
I know I've said this a zillion times, but no doubt it will need saying many zillion times more: the elderly are not getting rises in line with inflation. The very poorest - those entirely dependent on the state pension and pension credit, which might be an income of around £10K a year or so per person but might be less - are getting an increase in line with inflation. For other sources of pension income, those who rely on annuities are typically getting a big fat zero increase (most annuities sold are not inflation-linked). Even those on defined-benefit schemes are typically getting an increase of far less than inflation.
Apple are amazing. My iPad is screwed because I can’t get the sim out and I need a new sim. Seems like a modest problem but it’s actually a killer. Can’t be solved
So they’ve just given me a brand new replacement iPad. Just like that
Doesn't that depend on the maturity profile and also on what proportion of their debt is index-linked? (Of course they might be even worse in that respect than us, I'm not familiar with the details).
But, yeah. Not good for any country to have high debt.
And can anybody realistically see it coming down significantly in the foreseeable future? Its takes the perfect storm of a very particular type of PM / Chancellor willing to take some tough unpopular decisions and a good economic tailwinds to do so.
Yeah, it's going to be a hell of a slog getting it down again, and the favourable economic tailwinds aren't looking likely anytime soon. Brexit of course hasn't helped.
Welfare and the elderly get pay rises in line with inflation. Everyone else gets to bend over. Worse than managed decline, it's managed senescence.
I know I've said this a zillion times, but no doubt it will need saying many zillion times more: the elderly are not getting rises in line with inflation. The very poorest - those entirely dependent on the state pension and pension credit, which might be an income of around £10K a year or so per person but might be less - are getting an increase in line with inflation. For other sources of pension income, those who rely on annuities are typically getting a big fat zero increase (most annuities sold are not inflation-linked). Even those on defined-benefit schemes are typically getting an increase of far less than inflation.
There’s also different inflation for different things, food inflation at 16% for example.
Apple are amazing. My iPad is screwed because I can’t get the sim out and I need a new sim. Seems like a modest problem but it’s actually a killer. Can’t be solved
So they’ve just given me a brand new replacement iPad. Just like that
- VED on axle weight as well as emissions to discourage these huge trucks - congestion charges - no VAT on pushbikes - cancel road infrastructure projects in cities, replace with bike infrastructure
One thing that could be done easily and quickly is simplify the byzantine nightmare that is motorcycle and scooter licencing. The current system is clearly designed to put people off going for two wheels, when we really could do with the kind of scooter commuting culture seen in Asian and some European countries.
I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
Big suspicion is, what good news there is got announced in speech, first impressions matter so they are shaping the first impressions. More controversial things like the Defence Budget cut you flagged, hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly.
On Topic. And as we were saying “what good news there is got announced in speech, controversial things hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly”
And so it begins
This was in the March Budget too (it's a bigger increase now because it's linked to RPI which is higher than previously forecast but it's not a change in policy, it was in there already).
About time too. There are finite amounts of fossil fuels in the ground, and burning them is destroying our environment, so anything that will dissuade their use and encourage the use of cleaner alternatives is to be commended. And it brings in a few bob too.
You're thinking too short term. Coal, oil and gas are - so long as the sun keeps shining - all renewable sources.
Britain is in a grim situation with massive amounts of debt interest payments and the big story from the budget is the expectation that the Chancellor will be forced to forego an expected £5.7bn from increased fuel duty, and presumably borrow more instead.
The disconnect from reality is unreal.
It does bring in a very useful 5.7bn. At same time Farage & Friends are right, at what cost to small business.
Maybe it's the worst possible way to raise nearly £6bn, but then the story is where else that £6bn is going to come from.
Britain is still right on the edge of the precipice in terms of losing credibility in terms of being able to pay its debts. If the government gives way on £6bn right now then there's not much credibility in terms of resisting pressure on other tax increase and spending cuts.
Nope. Not buying any “we are on edge of precipice, no other option, only choice eat this crap or death” claptrap.
While you are posting that argument this budget is handing out an EIGHTEEN BILLION TAX CUT TO THE BIG BANKS
That's £18bn over five years compared to £5.7bn in the first year. You're still at least £10.5bn short.
It didn’t fall short as an example that this budget is political and ideological - the “cliff edge economy, accept all these measures or we go over” just cannot be used.
I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
Big suspicion is, what good news there is got announced in speech, first impressions matter so they are shaping the first impressions. More controversial things like the Defence Budget cut you flagged, hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly.
On Topic. And as we were saying “what good news there is got announced in speech, controversial things hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly”
And so it begins
This was in the March Budget too (it's a bigger increase now because it's linked to RPI which is higher than previously forecast but it's not a change in policy, it was in there already).
About time too. There are finite amounts of fossil fuels in the ground, and burning them is destroying our environment, so anything that will dissuade their use and encourage the use of cleaner alternatives is to be commended. And it brings in a few bob too.
You're thinking too short term. Coal, oil and gas are - so long as the sun keeps shining - all renewable sources.
Apple are amazing. My iPad is screwed because I can’t get the sim out and I need a new sim. Seems like a modest problem but it’s actually a killer. Can’t be solved
So they’ve just given me a brand new replacement iPad. Just like that
Doesn't that depend on the maturity profile and also on what proportion of their debt is index-linked? (Of course they might be even worse in that respect than us, I'm not familiar with the details).
But, yeah. Not good for any country to have high debt.
Well, the UK scores well on factor (maturity of debt) and poorly on the other (proportion of index linked debt).
Italy has a shorter maturity profile than us, and therefore sees the value of their debt eaten up by inflation. But on the other hand, they probably have to roll over debt equivalent to 2.5% of GDP every month (as well as issuing new debt to cover their budget deficit).
The UK's problem is that we have a far greater proportion of index linked debt than other countries. So rising inflation flows directly into rising interest payments.
Welfare and the elderly get pay rises in line with inflation. Everyone else gets to bend over. Worse than managed decline, it's managed senescence.
I know I've said this a zillion times, but no doubt it will need saying many zillion times more: the elderly are not getting rises in line with inflation. The very poorest - those entirely dependent on the state pension and pension credit, which might be an income of around £10K a year or so per person but might be less - are getting an increase in line with inflation. For other sources of pension income, those who rely on annuities are typically getting a big fat zero increase (most annuities sold are not inflation-linked). Even those on defined-benefit schemes are typically getting an increase of far less than inflation.
There’s also different inflation for different things, food inflation at 16% for example.
Yes, the low paid (including poor pensioners) are being especially badly hit: inflation driven by food and energy, which are non-discretionary spending and which form a disproportionately large part of their outgoings.
"My own view remains that the next general election outcome will be a hung parliament with Starmer becoming PM."
I agree. Just too big a hill to climb, especially without a few dozen Scottish seats like in years gone by.
In terms of climbing the hill, ie gaining seats, the Scottish situation helps not hinders. Labour only gained 7 Scottish seats in the 1997 election, because they held most of them already. They could easily gain more than that in the next election, coming from such a low base.
I just checked and apparently they've got zero seats in Moldova at the moment, so that could be an even more promising source of seats at the next GE.
Thanks that's a useful comment.
It was exactly as useful as yours.
No it wasn't. Mine was in response to a comment saying Labour had a massive hill to climb and the loss of seats in Scotland made that harder. I pointed out that in terms of climbing the hill, that left them with more potential gains in Scotland than they achieved in 1997, when because they already held so many Scottish seats they gained only 7 seats. Some recent polling suggests they could gain more than 7 at the next election. So in terms of winning additional seats from where they are now, Scotland could be a bigger help than in 1997. You don't think that is a useful argument to make in a thread devoted to the question of how many seats Labour can pick up at the next election? Genuinely perplexed at your response, TBH.
I guess @Endillion was assuming that Labour stand no chance of winning any seats in Scotland, and trying to make that point in the form of a joke. It is a view, but not one supported by current polling.
In 1997 Labour gained 147 seats, including 133 in England and 7 each in Scotland and Wales (comparison with 1992). If Labour won 133 English seats and none in Wales or Scotland (which would still see them winning fewer English seats than in 1997) then they would have 335 seats - a small majority. I would argue that the fundamentals (economy and length of Conservative rule) makes 1997 a reasonable benchmark, especially post Truss. Starmer isn't Blair, but Sunak isn't Major either. And polling suggests they will gain seats in Scotland too, quite possibly more than the 7 they gained in 1997.
Famously used by John Smith to highlight differences between Mrs Thatcher and her Chancellor, Nigel Lawson.
In what respect? Maggie was Madge and Nige was Harold??
As Neighbours ends recalling when late John Smith used soap’s theme song to expose Tory tension between a Prime Minister & Chancellor. Sounds familiar but back in 1989 it was Margaret Thatcher vs Nigel Lawson who quit soon after Smith urged him to decide “to jump or be pushed”. (Some familiar faces in the photo.) https://twitter.com/DwTenterden/status/1553376195449946113
Doesn't that depend on the maturity profile and also on what proportion of their debt is index-linked? (Of course they might be even worse in that respect than us, I'm not familiar with the details).
But, yeah. Not good for any country to have high debt.
Well, the UK scores well on factor (maturity of debt) and poorly on the other (proportion of index linked debt).
Italy has a shorter maturity profile than us, and therefore sees the value of their debt eaten up by inflation. But on the other hand, they probably have to roll over debt equivalent to 2.5% of GDP every month (as well as issuing new debt to cover their budget deficit).
The UK's problem is that we have a far greater proportion of index linked debt than other countries. So rising inflation flows directly into rising interest payments.
And the UK's inflation-linking is still RPI, is it not? So, even worse.
“energy price guarantee will be extended for 12 months from April. the average household will pay £3,000, Hunt says.”
Using the same method? At what cost? And how is it paid for? This is where the OBR has been pretty useless as an OBR today - the excuse we can’t possibly know the cost just doesn’t wash, because not knowing at what cost or funding mechanism is exactly what spooked the markets after Kwarsi budget.
As I have been saying all week, funny how OBR cost has come in at my predicted £60bn - exactly the same as the supposed black hole in the media.
But my point is this. That 58.4 is not for the energy price guarantee. It’s for energy price guarantee AND energy bill relief AND cost of living support measures. There is no way all that comes in remotely close to only 58.4 and and then even more ludicrous 25 - I could be proved completely wrong, but I just don’t believe it.
If it eventually turns out to be nearer £150bn and the argument is they couldn’t possibly have known, that won’t wash with me, I would feel let down by this OBR.
Frustratingly I have little to prove this point, except German bail out assessed at £200bn, other than keeping this post and coming back to this in two years or something 🤯
I think I'm slightly more inclined to leave the number crunching to the OBR rather than yourself.
Especially following your posts during the Nevada Senate count.
I may have the tattoo to say I got the Nevada senate count wrong, but I have got a few other things right I think, which you clearly don’t have the grace or balance to acknowledge.
But I am right. The German relief package was £200bn, previous estimates of the Truss plan was over £200bn - and now we are told it all comes in over two years at less than £85bn.
Something doesn’t seem right here. We have not heard the last of it. But we probably have to keep your post two years to prove you are absolutely naive and gullible.
Carry on questioning the figures. You're not always going to be right, but probably more often so than your average Tory administration.
Britain is in a grim situation with massive amounts of debt interest payments and the big story from the budget is the expectation that the Chancellor will be forced to forego an expected £5.7bn from increased fuel duty, and presumably borrow more instead.
The disconnect from reality is unreal.
It does bring in a very useful 5.7bn. At same time Farage & Friends are right, at what cost to small business.
"Farage & Friends" sounds like the world's worst talk show.
Welfare and the elderly get pay rises in line with inflation. Everyone else gets to bend over. Worse than managed decline, it's managed senescence.
I know I've said this a zillion times, but no doubt it will need saying many zillion times more: the elderly are not getting rises in line with inflation. The very poorest - those entirely dependent on the state pension and pension credit, which might be an income of around £10K a year or so per person but might be less - are getting an increase in line with inflation. For other sources of pension income, those who rely on annuities are typically getting a big fat zero increase (most annuities sold are not inflation-linked). Even those on defined-benefit schemes are typically getting an increase of far less than inflation.
The govt should offer direct index linked annuities. Cut out the middlemen.
“energy price guarantee will be extended for 12 months from April. the average household will pay £3,000, Hunt says.”
Using the same method? At what cost? And how is it paid for? This is where the OBR has been pretty useless as an OBR today - the excuse we can’t possibly know the cost just doesn’t wash, because not knowing at what cost or funding mechanism is exactly what spooked the markets after Kwarsi budget.
As I have been saying all week, funny how OBR cost has come in at my predicted £60bn - exactly the same as the supposed black hole in the media.
But my point is this. That 58.4 is not for the energy price guarantee. It’s for energy price guarantee AND energy bill relief AND cost of living support measures. There is no way all that comes in remotely close to only 58.4 and and then even more ludicrous 25 - I could be proved completely wrong, but I just don’t believe it.
If it eventually turns out to be nearer £150bn and the argument is they couldn’t possibly have known, that won’t wash with me, I would feel let down by this OBR.
Frustratingly I have little to prove this point, except German bail out assessed at £200bn, other than keeping this post and coming back to this in two years or something 🤯
I think I'm slightly more inclined to leave the number crunching to the OBR rather than yourself.
Especially following your posts during the Nevada Senate count.
I may have the tattoo to say I got the Nevada senate count wrong, but I have got a few other things right I think, which you clearly don’t have the grace or balance to acknowledge.
But I am right. The German relief package was £200bn, previous estimates of the Truss plan was over £200bn - and now we are told it all comes in over two years at less than £85bn.
Something doesn’t seem right here. We have not heard the last of it. But we probably have to keep your post two years to prove you are absolutely naive and gullible.
Apologies but I don't spend enough time on here or have the memory to remember all the predictions made by numerous posters on here.
But I can remember the Nevada posts as they were only a few days ago. And I'm afraid they were very revealing because the maths was so simple.
And as Truss and Kwarteng discovered, once you lose your reputation it's very hard to win it back.
But I'm not saying the OBR will be correct - it's the nature of all forecasts that they are almost certain to be wrong. But I imagine the OBR can manage basic maths.
Welfare and the elderly get pay rises in line with inflation. Everyone else gets to bend over. Worse than managed decline, it's managed senescence.
I know I've said this a zillion times, but no doubt it will need saying many zillion times more: the elderly are not getting rises in line with inflation. The very poorest - those entirely dependent on the state pension and pension credit, which might be an income of around £10K a year or so per person but might be less - are getting an increase in line with inflation. For other sources of pension income, those who rely on annuities are typically getting a big fat zero increase (most annuities sold are not inflation-linked). Even those on defined-benefit schemes are typically getting an increase of far less than inflation.
There’s also different inflation for different things, food inflation at 16% for example.
Yes, the low paid (including poor pensioners) are being especially badly hit: inflation driven by food and energy, which are non-discretionary spending and which form a disproportionately large part of their outgoings.
If the government have not intervened on milk and eggs in this budget, they need to u-turn on that pretty damn quick in my opinion. 😡
I’m sure Sunak hasn’t a clue how much a gallon of milk costs.
Welfare and the elderly get pay rises in line with inflation. Everyone else gets to bend over. Worse than managed decline, it's managed senescence.
I know I've said this a zillion times, but no doubt it will need saying many zillion times more: the elderly are not getting rises in line with inflation. The very poorest - those entirely dependent on the state pension and pension credit, which might be an income of around £10K a year or so per person but might be less - are getting an increase in line with inflation. For other sources of pension income, those who rely on annuities are typically getting a big fat zero increase (most annuities sold are not inflation-linked). Even those on defined-benefit schemes are typically getting an increase of far less than inflation.
There’s also different inflation for different things, food inflation at 16% for example.
Yes, the low paid (including poor pensioners) are being especially badly hit: inflation driven by food and energy, which are non-discretionary spending and which form a disproportionately large part of their outgoings.
If the government have not intervened on milk and eggs in this budget, they need to u-turn on that pretty damn quick in my opinion. 😡
I’m sure Sunak hasn’t a clue how much a gallon of milk costs.
He's young enough to have (at least for much of his adult life) bought it in litres.
Welfare and the elderly get pay rises in line with inflation. Everyone else gets to bend over. Worse than managed decline, it's managed senescence.
I know I've said this a zillion times, but no doubt it will need saying many zillion times more: the elderly are not getting rises in line with inflation. The very poorest - those entirely dependent on the state pension and pension credit, which might be an income of around £10K a year or so per person but might be less - are getting an increase in line with inflation. For other sources of pension income, those who rely on annuities are typically getting a big fat zero increase (most annuities sold are not inflation-linked). Even those on defined-benefit schemes are typically getting an increase of far less than inflation.
There’s also different inflation for different things, food inflation at 16% for example.
Yes, the low paid (including poor pensioners) are being especially badly hit: inflation driven by food and energy, which are non-discretionary spending and which form a disproportionately large part of their outgoings.
If the government have not intervened on milk and eggs in this budget, they need to u-turn on that pretty damn quick in my opinion. 😡
I’m sure Sunak hasn’t a clue how much a gallon of milk costs.
He's young enough to have (at least for much of his adult life) bought it in litres.
On these forecasts, the Tories will be going into the next election with unemployment rising, house prices falling, taxes rising, living standards falling faster than any time since the 1950s, a recent recession. In a word: Tricky.
"My own view remains that the next general election outcome will be a hung parliament with Starmer becoming PM."
I agree. Just too big a hill to climb, especially without a few dozen Scottish seats like in years gone by.
In terms of climbing the hill, ie gaining seats, the Scottish situation helps not hinders. Labour only gained 7 Scottish seats in the 1997 election, because they held most of them already. They could easily gain more than that in the next election, coming from such a low base.
I just checked and apparently they've got zero seats in Moldova at the moment, so that could be an even more promising source of seats at the next GE.
Thanks that's a useful comment.
It was exactly as useful as yours.
No it wasn't. Mine was in response to a comment saying Labour had a massive hill to climb and the loss of seats in Scotland made that harder. I pointed out that in terms of climbing the hill, that left them with more potential gains in Scotland than they achieved in 1997, when because they already held so many Scottish seats they gained only 7 seats. Some recent polling suggests they could gain more than 7 at the next election. So in terms of winning additional seats from where they are now, Scotland could be a bigger help than in 1997. You don't think that is a useful argument to make in a thread devoted to the question of how many seats Labour can pick up at the next election? Genuinely perplexed at your response, TBH.
I guess @Endillion was assuming that Labour stand no chance of winning any seats in Scotland, and trying to make that point in the form of a joke. It is a view, but not one supported by current polling.
In 1997 Labour gained 147 seats, including 133 in England and 7 each in Scotland and Wales (comparison with 1992). If Labour won 133 English seats and none in Wales or Scotland (which would still see them winning fewer English seats than in 1997) then they would have 335 seats - a small majority. I would argue that the fundamentals (economy and length of Conservative rule) makes 1997 a reasonable benchmark, especially post Truss. Starmer isn't Blair, but Sunak isn't Major either. And polling suggests they will gain seats in Scotland too, quite possibly more than the 7 they gained in 1997.
The polling over the next days over the Budget's 'fairness' will be extremely important. If the overall verdict is positive (notwithstanding the hits to pockets), then that is a necessary but far from sufficient condition for the Tories to stage some sort of electoral recovery over the next two years.
But if the Statement gets the thumbs-down, then there really isn't much hope.
I see Max Verstappen has been complaining about the team orders reaction incident - what a petty man he is. He opens with saying the media didn't have the clear picture, but then just moans for paragraph after paragraph without once seeming to indicate what was not clear, though they hint at some personal beef he has.
Famously used by John Smith to highlight differences between Mrs Thatcher and her Chancellor, Nigel Lawson.
In what respect? Maggie was Madge and Nige was Harold??
As Neighbours ends recalling when late John Smith used soap’s theme song to expose Tory tension between a Prime Minister & Chancellor. Sounds familiar but back in 1989 it was Margaret Thatcher vs Nigel Lawson who quit soon after Smith urged him to decide “to jump or be pushed”. (Some familiar faces in the photo.) https://twitter.com/DwTenterden/status/1553376195449946113
The polling over the next days over the Budget's 'fairness' will be extremely important. If the overall verdict is positive (notwithstanding the hits to pockets), then that is a necessary but far from sufficient condition for the Tories to stage some sort of electoral recovery over the next two years.
But if the Statement gets the thumbs-down, then there really isn't much hope.
I predict it will get the thumbs down because the Tories are already extremely unpopular so anything they do will be tarred with the same brush. Whether it will be any good is a separate question.
I see Max Verstappen has been complaining about the team orders reaction incident - what a petty man he is. He opens with saying the media didn't have the clear picture, but then just moans for paragraph after paragraph without once seeming to indicate what was not clear, though they hint at some personal beef he has.
“energy price guarantee will be extended for 12 months from April. the average household will pay £3,000, Hunt says.”
Using the same method? At what cost? And how is it paid for? This is where the OBR has been pretty useless as an OBR today - the excuse we can’t possibly know the cost just doesn’t wash, because not knowing at what cost or funding mechanism is exactly what spooked the markets after Kwarsi budget.
As I have been saying all week, funny how OBR cost has come in at my predicted £60bn - exactly the same as the supposed black hole in the media.
But my point is this. That 58.4 is not for the energy price guarantee. It’s for energy price guarantee AND energy bill relief AND cost of living support measures. There is no way all that comes in remotely close to only 58.4 and and then even more ludicrous 25 - I could be proved completely wrong, but I just don’t believe it.
If it eventually turns out to be nearer £150bn and the argument is they couldn’t possibly have known, that won’t wash with me, I would feel let down by this OBR.
Frustratingly I have little to prove this point, except German bail out assessed at £200bn, other than keeping this post and coming back to this in two years or something 🤯
I think I'm slightly more inclined to leave the number crunching to the OBR rather than yourself.
Especially following your posts during the Nevada Senate count.
I may have the tattoo to say I got the Nevada senate count wrong, but I have got a few other things right I think, which you clearly don’t have the grace or balance to acknowledge.
But I am right. The German relief package was £200bn, previous estimates of the Truss plan was over £200bn - and now we are told it all comes in over two years at less than £85bn.
Something doesn’t seem right here. We have not heard the last of it. But we probably have to keep your post two years to prove you are absolutely naive and gullible.
Apologies but I don't spend enough time on here or have the memory to remember all the predictions made by numerous posters on here.
But I can remember the Nevada posts as they were only a few days ago. And I'm afraid they were very revealing because the maths was so simple.
And as Truss and Kwarteng discovered, once you lose your reputation it's very hard to win it back.
But I'm not saying the OBR will be correct - it's the nature of all forecasts that they are almost certain to be wrong. But I imagine the OBR can manage basic maths.
Fair enough then if you’ve missed the best of me 😇
But it’s not just OBR team versus Miss Gen Zee from Art school who frequently bunked off school to watch horse racing and has fallen off horses on her head lots of times - there have been lots of other valuations of how much the energy help costs, and the OBR is by far the outlier in how low it is.
Maybe we both can be right, you in your blind faith and me in my scepticism, if they are in fact changing the formulae in the extension period to variable price capping. £25bn would still be an outlier, but not out by £100bn.
Welfare and the elderly get pay rises in line with inflation. Everyone else gets to bend over. Worse than managed decline, it's managed senescence.
I know I've said this a zillion times, but no doubt it will need saying many zillion times more: the elderly are not getting rises in line with inflation. The very poorest - those entirely dependent on the state pension and pension credit, which might be an income of around £10K a year or so per person but might be less - are getting an increase in line with inflation. For other sources of pension income, those who rely on annuities are typically getting a big fat zero increase (most annuities sold are not inflation-linked). Even those on defined-benefit schemes are typically getting an increase of far less than inflation.
There’s also different inflation for different things, food inflation at 16% for example.
Yes, the low paid (including poor pensioners) are being especially badly hit: inflation driven by food and energy, which are non-discretionary spending and which form a disproportionately large part of their outgoings.
If the government have not intervened on milk and eggs in this budget, they need to u-turn on that pretty damn quick in my opinion. 😡
I’m sure Sunak hasn’t a clue how much a gallon of milk costs.
I mean, who does? I don’t even know how much a pint costs. I have never looked. You have to buy the stuff regardless of how much it costs.
This is socialism, no wonder Michael Foot was in favour of Brexit.
Like I asked earlier, how were people expecting the half trillion spent on the Covid response and now energy crisis would be paid for if not by increased taxes?
The polling over the next days over the Budget's 'fairness' will be extremely important. If the overall verdict is positive (notwithstanding the hits to pockets), then that is a necessary but far from sufficient condition for the Tories to stage some sort of electoral recovery over the next two years.
But if the Statement gets the thumbs-down, then there really isn't much hope.
I predict it will get the thumbs down because the Tories are already extremely unpopular so anything they do will be tarred with the same brush. Whether it will be any good is a separate question.
Generally speaking people say Budgets are good for the country but not for them as individuals - I suspect this will be rated similarly. People are giving Sunak a bit of leeway for the difficult situation, but the general sense that the Tories have lost their way and need a period in Opposition is pretty pervasive.
This is socialism, no wonder Michael Foot was in favour of Brexit.
Like I asked earlier, how were people expecting the half trillion spent on the Covid response and now energy crisis would be paid for if not by increased taxes?
The whiplash from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's Special Fiscal Operation is what makes this worse, a few weeks ago we were promised the biggest tax cuts for a generation to this.
This is socialism, no wonder Michael Foot was in favour of Brexit.
Like I asked earlier, how were people expecting the half trillion spent on the Covid response and now energy crisis would be paid for if not by increased taxes?
This is socialism, no wonder Michael Foot was in favour of Brexit.
Like I asked earlier, how were people expecting the half trillion spent on the Covid response and now energy crisis would be paid for if not by increased taxes?
The whiplash from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's Special Fiscal Operation is what makes this worse, a few weeks ago we were promised the biggest tax cuts for a generation to this.
True, but the point remains. It had to be paid for eventually, surely?
This is socialism, no wonder Michael Foot was in favour of Brexit.
Like I asked earlier, how were people expecting the half trillion spent on the Covid response and now energy crisis would be paid for if not by increased taxes?
The whiplash from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's Special Fiscal Operation is what makes this worse, a few weeks ago we were promised the biggest tax cuts for a generation to this.
Sauce Shop have for some inexplicable reason ceased production of my favourite sriracha. They now sell a weird combo of sriracha and chili which is OK but it's way too sweet and has tons of tomato. It is not sriracha
Can anyone recommend a good hot, sour, proper sriracha? Flying Goose has never quite done it for me. Not hot enough
I use sriracha CONSTANTLY. This is a CRISIS on a par with THE UKRAINE WAR
Sauce Shop have for some inexplicable reason ceased production of my favourite sriracha. They now sell a weird combo of sriracha and chili which is OK but it's way too sweet and has tons of tomato. It is not sriracha
Can anyone recommend a good hot, sour, proper sriracha? Flying Goose has never quite done it for me. Not hot enough
I use sriracha CONSTANTLY. This is a CRISIS on a par with THE UKRAINE WAR
Apple are amazing. My iPad is screwed because I can’t get the sim out and I need a new sim. Seems like a modest problem but it’s actually a killer. Can’t be solved
So they’ve just given me a brand new replacement iPad. Just like that
Sauce Shop have for some inexplicable reason ceased production of my favourite sriracha. They now sell a weird combo of sriracha and chili which is OK but it's way too sweet and has tons of tomato. It is not sriracha
Can anyone recommend a good hot, sour, proper sriracha? Flying Goose has never quite done it for me. Not hot enough
I use sriracha CONSTANTLY. This is a CRISIS on a par with THE UKRAINE WAR
Comments
While you are posting that argument this budget is handing out an EIGHTEEN BILLION TAX CUT TO THE BIG BANKS
They found no wrong doing.
Instead they continued to meet with FTX on giving them a "no-action letter" to broaden reach in the US markets.
https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1593270487395835905?t=pZiR-xBa58QfRrfv-VOpPA&s=19
Lot of tick box checks?
Some recent polling suggests they could gain more than 7 at the next election. So in terms of winning additional seats from where they are now, Scotland could be a bigger help than in 1997. You don't think that is a useful argument to make in a thread devoted to the question of how many seats Labour can pick up at the next election?
Genuinely perplexed at your response, TBH.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-63660032
Famously used by John Smith to highlight differences between Mrs Thatcher and her Chancellor, Nigel Lawson.
Mate.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1593283253825404928/photo/1
Why do they do this? Who thought this would be a good idea?!?
But my point is this. That 58.4 is not for the energy price guarantee. It’s for energy price guarantee AND energy bill relief AND cost of living support measures. There is no way all that comes in remotely close to only 58.4 and and then even more ludicrous 25 - I could be proved completely wrong, but I just don’t believe it.
If it eventually turns out to be nearer £150bn and the argument is they couldn’t possibly have known, that won’t wash with me, I would feel let down by this OBR.
Frustratingly I have little to prove this point, except German bail out assessed at £200bn, other than keeping this post and coming back to this in two years or something 🤯
A fact I was barely aware of. I certainly didn’t realise it entitled me to a brand new replacement iPad there and then. Took 2 minutes
I’m a fanboi again
But, yeah. Not good for any country to have high debt.
Especially following your posts during the Nevada Senate count.
But I am right. The German relief package was £200bn, previous estimates of the Truss plan was over £200bn - and now we are told it all comes in over two years at less than £85bn.
Something doesn’t seem right here. We have not heard the last of it. But we probably have to keep your post two years to prove you are absolutely naive and gullible.
How exactly did the SIM break? 😇
Italy has a shorter maturity profile than us, and therefore sees the value of their debt eaten up by inflation. But on the other hand, they probably have to roll over debt equivalent to 2.5% of GDP every month (as well as issuing new debt to cover their budget deficit).
The UK's problem is that we have a far greater proportion of index linked debt than other countries. So rising inflation flows directly into rising interest payments.
(Some familiar faces in the photo.)
https://twitter.com/DwTenterden/status/1553376195449946113
Read it for yourself in Hansard.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/1989-06-07/debates/8100e88d-9ac3-4fee-9cdc-e9b9edcf2c45/GovernmentEconomicPolicy
Nigel Lawson resigned a few months later, on the same day as Alan Walters, who had been Mrs Thatcher's personal economics adviser.
You're not always going to be right, but probably more often so than your average Tory administration.
Farage: The Last Patriot Scoundrel.
They’ve got access to nhs records.
It would be dead easy.
But I can remember the Nevada posts as they were only a few days ago. And I'm afraid they were very revealing because the maths was so simple.
And as Truss and Kwarteng discovered, once you lose your reputation it's very hard to win it back.
But I'm not saying the OBR will be correct - it's the nature of all forecasts that they are almost certain to be wrong. But I imagine the OBR can manage basic maths.
Some people just don't photograph well.
I’m sure Sunak hasn’t a clue how much a gallon of milk costs.
Electrical Cords, Metal Pipes: In Kherson, Signs of Torture Emerge...
https://twitter.com/jmayerfeld/status/1593290053970972672
Patron Saint of lost causes.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1593292318999732235
Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (16-17 November):
Disapprove: 32% (+2)
Approve: 30% (+4)
Net: -2% (+2)
Changes +/- 13 November
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-16-17-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1593292936460083200/photo/1
Okay it was $17 million, but in the context of FTX, I'm bloody annoyed I wasted 3 months of my life on this.
I'm such a fucking idiot.
They will be something else.
Sharpest drop in living standards on record
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/funereal-uk-tories-fear-voters-verdict-after-hunt-s-tax-gloom?srnd=premium-uk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1593294323772170246/photo/1
FTX crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried subject of new book by Michael Lewis
Bestselling writer Lewis has been shadowing Bankman-Fried as the cryptocurrency founder’s company, FTX, failed
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/nov/14/ftx-crypto-king-sam-bankman-fried-new-book-michael-lewis
But if the Statement gets the thumbs-down, then there really isn't much hope.
"Probably the right choice, on balance" their analysis says, given dangers of cutting too early with recession.
Though they do add "delaying all of the difficult decisions until after the next general election does cast doubt on the credibility of these plans".
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1593295796723752962
But it’s not just OBR team versus Miss Gen Zee from Art school who frequently bunked off school to watch horse racing and has fallen off horses on her head lots of times - there have been lots of other valuations of how much the energy help costs, and the OBR is by far the outlier in how low it is.
Maybe we both can be right, you in your blind faith and me in my scepticism, if they are in fact changing the formulae in the extension period to variable price capping. £25bn would still be an outlier, but not out by £100bn.
I hear Giuliani's looking for a new gig.
Kari Lake declines to concede, says she’s assembling legal team
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3739934-kari-lake-declines-to-concede-says-shes-assembling-legal-team/
Is there a Four Seasons in Arizona ?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html
UK to have worst economic decline in Europe next year -and by some margin... https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1593214478195519489/photo/1
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (16-17 November):
Approve: 40% (+4)
Disapprove: 28% (+2)
Net: +12% (+2)
Changes +/- 13 November
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-16-17-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1593297972577517568/photo/1
I think he might be back, soon, for austerity round two (three?)…
Sauce Shop have for some inexplicable reason ceased production of my favourite sriracha. They now sell a weird combo of sriracha and chili which is OK but it's way too sweet and has tons of tomato. It is not sriracha
Can anyone recommend a good hot, sour, proper sriracha? Flying Goose has never quite done it for me. Not hot enough
I use sriracha CONSTANTLY. This is a CRISIS on a par with THE UKRAINE WAR