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A LAB majority back as general election favourite – politicalbetting.com
A LAB majority back as general election favourite – politicalbetting.com
We have been focused so much recently on the American elections that we have ignored the betting on what is going to happen at the next UK General Election. The chart above shows how the outcome has fluctuated between a hung Parliament or a LAB majority and the latter has now just edged into the lead as a 43% chance.
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Oh, and first.
Doubt if we will get them though.
Next FM Anas Sarwar 16/1
If Starmer is a dud, Sarwar is a disaster.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/15/uk-china-rishi-sunak-g20-summit-bali
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592471784456085505
Good news
The truly impressive findings there are:
Scottish Labour back to 3rd
Scottish Lib Dems on zilch
Labour absolutely smashing the Tories in the Midlands.
*grabs tinfoil hat, then ducks head*
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
https://twitter.com/brianforgie/status/1591802069874544642?s=46&t=kauyGoQWOWWYQhb-p-yE4g
Congress has 100 senators + 435(?) state reps for a population of 332.4 million
UK has 68.7M with 778 in HoL (wiki may be too low on that) + 650 in House of Commons
Ludicrous
https://twitter.com/areyouyesyet/status/1592153064588574720?s=46&t=kauyGoQWOWWYQhb-p-yE4g
So it will probably be hard to tell the difference with Sunak.
https://www.britishgas.co.uk/energy/go-green/green-gas.html
So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain.
Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
That's not meant as offensive. Just a truism.
No, it's no good. But I think it was something to do with the Lords being appointed for life. Someone once told me that it used to be the case that their children could carry on when they died, but I'm not sure whether I believe that.
You're rather hellbent on this Stuart, if I may say, despite the evidence to the contrary. Try to remove the blinkers occasionally please. x
It's an almost certainty now. It was in 1997. It is now.
What’s your stake?
While in theory you could reabsorb all of the "process" CO2 released from limestone calcination, you still have the fuel CO2 emissions from the production of the cement/concrete.
Also, reabsorbing the CO2 in 50 years time isn't much use when the climate will be fecked long before then.
BTW - this 50 year argument also applies to those buggers chopping down forests and burning the wood and saying it is OK because they will grow back again. Too late. Biomass needs to be short duration to be carbon neutral in the timescales that matter.
"I travel round the world all the time"
"Climate change means some people may be told not to travel on planes"
Has the flounce happened yet? We're long overdue a Smarkets market on the next poster to leave PB, whether by ban or by flounce
I asked last night how failure is defined and how success might be. No answer. To remainers its seems its a failure because of the economy, while to brexiteers its a success because sovreignty. Both can be right at the same time.
I think a Labour government would have the mandate and space to move the position closer to where most people want to be - people like @RochdalePioneers who voted for Brexit assuming we would end up in the EEA or some such. I also suspect that Sunak is a sight more pragmatic than Johnson or Truss and will try to move in the same direction. The mood music around NI suggests that is the case.
Have you traded out to minimise loss? Or hoping for something to turn up to either make it a less bad bet or a more tradeable one?
I've offloaded some; I planned to trade the rest out in a Truss bounce, but that never materialised, quite the reverse, in fact. The Sunak honeymoon hasn't really done the job either.
After every census they used to increase the number of members of the House of Representatives - until the early 1900s and the first census to show more Americans living in Urban than Rural areas. At that point the brakes were slammed on increasing the chamber.
The Tories need a small to moderate improvement and to maintain that position to have a chance of stopping SKS.
Starmer may be PM, but not at the head of a Labour majority.
Sophia Kianni
Meanwhile, I note that today's data shows that private sector pay rises are running at 6.6%, with public sector rises at 2.2%. Both of course are below inflation, but there's no doubt that public sector workers are bearing the brunt of the current cost of living crisis.
Of course there are lots of well-paid public sector workers who can withstand this. But millions of public sector workers are on low wages. It's hardly surprising that they're getting a bit bolshie, when their supermarket shop and other basic bills are rising by 10% or more.
Lab maj (325/6 seats) 30%
NOM 55%
Tory maj (325/6 seats) 15%
Obviously it look s now as if the Tory maj chance is nil, but as in the last two years things can change fast and black swans are getting a bit common. Such value as there is is with NOM because there is a awful lot of middle ground within which NOM is still the outcome. Both a Tory and Labour majority require something rather extreme to happen.
The presidents of the US and China emerged from a lengthy meeting late yesterday with a clutch of goodwill gestures that lower the temperature between the world’s two biggest economies. Plus, summit negotiators have wrangled a draft communique that seeks to bridge differences over how heavily to condemn Russia for its war in Ukraine.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-11-15/g-20-leaders-avoid-a-train-wreck-for-now-balance-of-power
My approach here is to ringfence and say "bye bye" to the money. It has already lost as far as I'm concerned. If I still believed in its ultimate fruition I'd be laying more at short prices to get my average down. Like with my Big Short on Trump. But I don't believe in it. It's a new era and this bet belongs in the old one.
Course this - again unlike with Trump - is a punt against what I otherwise want to happen so it's big
Are our representatives REALLY this terrified of the people? Do they fear that someone might watch, think "Hey, someone's wearing Suffragette colours, now I'm changing my mind about this policy"?
It's just so *pathetic* I'm ashamed to be Scottish.
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1592482815194517505
As far as the House is concerned, it's stupid that they haven't increased the numbers if congresspersons since before WWII, despite the massive increase in population.
That too is a matter of political debate.
The HoL is crap, but not because of any comparison with the US.
Sorry I didn't answer your question last night, I went to bed! I would define Brexit as a failure if it leaves us poorer and less able to exert influence in the world. In my opinion both of those conditions are already met, although of course it is early days still.
I think the kind of bold Brexit that could succeed on its own terms, eg complete deregulation or perhaps becoming part of the United States, is politically unfeasible. The failure to define what Brexit would actually look like, but then voting for it anyway, is an extraordinary failure of politics and statecraft and explains why Brexit is turning out to be such a dud, IMHO.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23125768.woman-suffragette-colours-asked-leave-holyrood-committee-room/
Apparently it wasn't true.
The widely shared claim that the Iranian regime has committed to executing 15,000 detained protesters is not true. Please stop sharing it. The Iranian regime is horrific, brutal and ruthless as it actually is. There's no need to make up stories.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1592476918305427458
ETA: As for being shrewd, turns out I've also laid Trump running for president. Not getting the nomination or winning in 24 (both solid bets) but simply filing. What a numpty
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63633109
ETA: Respect for coming back to correct (and highlight) an inaccurate post
https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/access/security/
Lab maj: 70%
NOM: 25%
Tory maj: 5%
But I could be persuaded to something like 60/30/10. By persuaded I mean to not strongly disagree with.
I think maximum 500 each would be enough personally.
On Brexit I think it is too early to say, and will be for a considerable while. Did we exert more influence around the world as part of the EU than we do outside? I'm not convinced.
I'm actually surprised this hasn't come up before - but bear in mind that banning some but not all slogans/etc would count as discrimination.
Only interested in money not in geopolitics
Nailed on for me is almost a certainty, so 99% or more chance.
Make the UK a federal state where decisions are taken very locally and reducing the central government makes great sense.
I thought not!
Ludicrous
New Hampshire has a small state Senate of 24 and a state house of representatives of 400, for about 1.4 million.
I love it.
Surely not the original CO2, merely a similar quantity?
Has it been true, then it would likely have been across most front pages this morning, so I though I should have a look for some commentary.
Of course some executions are happening, notwithstanding.
What if a visitor wore a yellow tie to signify their support of the SNP? Or blue or red ties? Banned too?
Seems unlikely. Colours aren't slogans.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Convenor closed meeting. Security later said “political slogans” not permitted 🧐
Who decided that suffragette colours are “political”? 🟪⬜️🟩
https://twitter.com/RussellFindlay1/status/1592480700271583232
I can hardly wait to read @ScotParl ‘s rules on when a sequence of colours becomes 'political', and why some juxtapositions are permitted while others aren't. And then I look forward to these regulations being scrutinised to ensure compliance with Equalities legislation.
https://twitter.com/Adrian_Hilton/status/1592474719772893184