The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
It’s more likely that the next administration will recognise reality & move towards a closer alignment with the EU. Maybe not full EEA because that requires freedom of movement, but probably joining the customs union in order to get free trade with the EU.
The customs union only choice is the worst one and I'm surprised it keeps getting brought up as a viable suggestion. We'd have zero say about our trade policy to any other country and we'd merely be dragged along with whatever the EU wanted purely to make Dover a tiny bit simpler. It still would mean a hard border too for immigration purposes so you wouldn't remove queues.
I'd support EFTA (not EEA) because at least then we can still look outwards for other trade deals, but I still think this is 10 years in the future. The political appetite to properly reopen this is not there from either of the main two parties and it's pointless discussing it now as we might be in a different position even 2 years down the line.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
I suspect that this shows that the Greens have more influence over the Scottish Government than would be expected. I think that Sturgeon and her confidants are closer to the Greens than they are to their traditional support.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Opinium is no longer an opinion poll in the traditional sense - it is not a statement of current voting intention but rather a prediction of future voting intention having taken account of expected 'swingback.'
That happened because of Corbyn (fear of how close GE2017 was firming up the South) and to Get Brexit Done.
Those two factors don't apply anymore.
Traditional thinking would be that Labour couldn't get to a majority that easily in one hit but I think it's possible the Tory coalition splinters to every which way (in Scotland to Labour, up north to Labour, the South to Lib Dems and everywhere else fraying to Reform) such that they come through the middle.
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
Moving to close regulatory alignment and sorting out mobility for workers, short of full freedom of movement, will do it. I honestly think some people think there is no trade with the EU at the moment. What we have is trade with increased friction - the paperwork etc - that is making it harder. Work as hard as possible to reduce that and make the case for more people coming to the UK to work and Brexit will look better.
I asked last night how failure is defined and how success might be. No answer. To remainers its seems its a failure because of the economy, while to brexiteers its a success because sovreignty. Both can be right at the same time.
I think a Labour government would have the mandate and space to move the position closer to where most people want to be - people like @RochdalePioneers who voted for Brexit assuming we would end up in the EEA or some such. I also suspect that Sunak is a sight more pragmatic than Johnson or Truss and will try to move in the same direction. The mood music around NI suggests that is the case.
I think the kind of outcome you describe would be a good place for us for now, as long as that freedom of movement was reciprocated. The problem with it as a long term proposition is on sovereignty: regulatory alignment leaves us as a rule taker not a rule maker. I'm not sure that is a comfortable position for a country like us, especially as we were actually disproportionately influential in the nitty gritty of rule setting in Brussels. Sorry I didn't answer your question last night, I went to bed! I would define Brexit as a failure if it leaves us poorer and less able to exert influence in the world. In my opinion both of those conditions are already met, although of course it is early days still. I think the kind of bold Brexit that could succeed on its own terms, eg complete deregulation or perhaps becoming part of the United States, is politically unfeasible. The failure to define what Brexit would actually look like, but then voting for it anyway, is an extraordinary failure of politics and statecraft and explains why Brexit is turning out to be such a dud, IMHO.
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
It’s more likely that the next administration will recognise reality & move towards a closer alignment with the EU. Maybe not full EEA because that requires freedom of movement, but probably joining the customs union in order to get free trade with the EU.
The customs union only choice is the worst one and I'm surprised it keeps getting brought up as a viable suggestion. We'd have zero say about our trade policy to any other country and we'd merely be dragged along with whatever the EU wanted purely to make Dover a tiny bit simpler. It still would mean a hard border too for immigration purposes so you wouldn't remove queues.
I'd support EFTA (not EEA) because at least then we can still look outwards for other trade deals, but I still think this is 10 years in the future. The political appetite to properly reopen this is not there from either of the main two parties and it's pointless discussing it now as we might be in a different position even 2 years down the line.
We have free trade, but we don't have frictionless trade.
Yes looks like LAB are going to win! I say that without any enthusiasm. I suspect the majority will be relatively small. Not much real enthusiasm for Keir and team even recognising that the current government is useless 👿
A small majority (or quite possibly, no majority) would almost certainly turn out to be a better Labour win for the country than a massive one.
Would you not be worried by the left being too influential if that happens? Eg a Lab equivalent of the ERG led by Richard Burgon?
The right wing weren't particularly influential under Cameron/Clegg - indeed the two of them used to play games with Cameron regularly using the 'threat' of what the LibDems might do or think to keep his nutters in line.
I think Lab Maj is nailed on. I have it laid at an average of over 5 (from the days before Johnson blew up) and it's the absolute dog of my portfolio. It's amazing what's happened - the switch - but it has happened and my sense is it's baked in now. I see the Lab lead staying in double digits all the way through to the election.
Its very likely, but not nailed on. The current Labour polling position is artificially high, LD etc artificially low due to 'grrrrrrrr' respondees mid term with a useless government. If the Tories msintain contact with 30, a cling to nurse, not ready for Starmer, can't stand Labour effect in a campaign might be enough to get to 33/34 which might stop a majority without Scotland turning. The Tories need a small to moderate improvement and to maintain that position to have a chance of stopping SKS.
Ok, yes, by "nailed on" I meant a 75% chance, something like that. You have to price in some 'time & events' risk.
Language means different things to different people. I find the use of most confusing - technically 'most' means over 50%, but in my head its more like 80% or more.
Nailed on for me is almost a certainty, so 99% or more chance.
Yes fair enough. It's just that sometimes you don't want to be all totally careful and precise in language when you're just trying to get a view over. Strictly speaking you should always do a % probability - rather than "nailed on" or "done deal" or "toast" or whatever - but it can look a bit geeky if you do that all the time.
It's what I always do in my head though. Even in normal life as opposed to betting. Eg I'll be chatting to my wife and she'll say "are you playing golf tomorrow?" and I'll go "80% chance of that as we speak". And I like it when other people can quantify a probability when they're giving me opinions in conversation on things they think might happen. Often I push them to, but I back off if I sense irritation.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
That's part of a wider rule that *visitors* can't wear politically related clothing, slogans, etc., to help discourage demonstrations, etc., in the chamber. So there is some point - and there is the same rule at Westminster.
Ex Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith warns: "[Sunak] said in summer, categorically, he considered China to be a systemic threat. What we’re seeing here is the beginnings of a step away from his original position. I hope he’s not about to do a U-turn, it would be completely wrong." https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592471784456085505
Osborne digging in his claws
Only interested in money not in geopolitics
In hindsight Dave and Ossie were very much in bed with the Chinese weren’t they?
But also Hunt - don’t the Chinese themselves refer to him as the Son in Law of China?
There are very legitimate arguments for lords reform (which will never happen cos the chief commoners in the other place don't want to lose a favourite loyalty carrot), but comparisons to the US system don't actually say much.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
That's part of a wider rule that *visitors* can't wear politically related clothing, slogans, etc., to help discourage demonstrations, etc., in the chamber. So there is some point - and there is the same rule at Westminster.
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
Moving to close regulatory alignment and sorting out mobility for workers, short of full freedom of movement, will do it. I honestly think some people think there is no trade with the EU at the moment. What we have is trade with increased friction - the paperwork etc - that is making it harder. Work as hard as possible to reduce that and make the case for more people coming to the UK to work and Brexit will look better.
I asked last night how failure is defined and how success might be. No answer. To remainers its seems its a failure because of the economy, while to brexiteers its a success because sovreignty. Both can be right at the same time.
I think a Labour government would have the mandate and space to move the position closer to where most people want to be - people like @RochdalePioneers who voted for Brexit assuming we would end up in the EEA or some such. I also suspect that Sunak is a sight more pragmatic than Johnson or Truss and will try to move in the same direction. The mood music around NI suggests that is the case.
I think the kind of outcome you describe would be a good place for us for now, as long as that freedom of movement was reciprocated. The problem with it as a long term proposition is on sovereignty: regulatory alignment leaves us as a rule taker not a rule maker. I'm not sure that is a comfortable position for a country like us, especially as we were actually disproportionately influential in the nitty gritty of rule setting in Brussels. Sorry I didn't answer your question last night, I went to bed! I would define Brexit as a failure if it leaves us poorer and less able to exert influence in the world. In my opinion both of those conditions are already met, although of course it is early days still. I think the kind of bold Brexit that could succeed on its own terms, eg complete deregulation or perhaps becoming part of the United States, is politically unfeasible. The failure to define what Brexit would actually look like, but then voting for it anyway, is an extraordinary failure of politics and statecraft and explains why Brexit is turning out to be such a dud, IMHO.
Went to bed? Fair enough! The moral of the story of Brexit, that it means different things to different people is something that those espousing (and indeed opposing) Scottish Independence would be well to heed. The last vote in 2014 was the classic Yes/No. We would have had an almighty row after the vote, pace Brexit, about currency, debt, the army, etc.
On Brexit I think it is too early to say, and will be for a considerable while. Did we exert more influence around the world as part of the EU than we do outside? I'm not convinced.
That happened because of Corbyn (fear of how close GE2017 was firming up the South) and to Get Brexit Done.
Those two factors don't apply anymore.
Traditional thinking would be that Labour couldn't get to a majority that easily in one hit but I think it's possible the Tory coalition splinters to every which way (in Scotland to Labour, up north to Labour, the South to Lib Dems and everywhere else fraying to Reform) such that they come through the middle.
I think the broad strokes of this is right. From so far behind Labour should struggle, but circumstances have worked in their favour.
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
It’s more likely that the next administration will recognise reality & move towards a closer alignment with the EU. Maybe not full EEA because that requires freedom of movement, but probably joining the customs union in order to get free trade with the EU.
The customs union only choice is the worst one and I'm surprised it keeps getting brought up as a viable suggestion. We'd have zero say about our trade policy to any other country and we'd merely be dragged along with whatever the EU wanted purely to make Dover a tiny bit simpler. It still would mean a hard border too for immigration purposes so you wouldn't remove queues.
I'd support EFTA (not EEA) because at least then we can still look outwards for other trade deals, but I still think this is 10 years in the future. The political appetite to properly reopen this is not there from either of the main two parties and it's pointless discussing it now as we might be in a different position even 2 years down the line.
We have free trade, but we don't have frictionless trade.
I'm well aware. The customs union option also wouldn't deliver frictionless trade in the way you might expect but would come with a lot of disadvantages including the possibility of having to give up many of the trade deals we've just signed or negotiated.
Turkey is the closest example of what it might look like and it provides nothing for services.
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
Moving to close regulatory alignment and sorting out mobility for workers, short of full freedom of movement, will do it. I honestly think some people think there is no trade with the EU at the moment. What we have is trade with increased friction - the paperwork etc - that is making it harder. Work as hard as possible to reduce that and make the case for more people coming to the UK to work and Brexit will look better.
I asked last night how failure is defined and how success might be. No answer. To remainers its seems its a failure because of the economy, while to brexiteers its a success because sovreignty. Both can be right at the same time.
I think a Labour government would have the mandate and space to move the position closer to where most people want to be - people like @RochdalePioneers who voted for Brexit assuming we would end up in the EEA or some such. I also suspect that Sunak is a sight more pragmatic than Johnson or Truss and will try to move in the same direction. The mood music around NI suggests that is the case.
I think the kind of outcome you describe would be a good place for us for now, as long as that freedom of movement was reciprocated. The problem with it as a long term proposition is on sovereignty: regulatory alignment leaves us as a rule taker not a rule maker. I'm not sure that is a comfortable position for a country like us, especially as we were actually disproportionately influential in the nitty gritty of rule setting in Brussels. Sorry I didn't answer your question last night, I went to bed! I would define Brexit as a failure if it leaves us poorer and less able to exert influence in the world. In my opinion both of those conditions are already met, although of course it is early days still. I think the kind of bold Brexit that could succeed on its own terms, eg complete deregulation or perhaps becoming part of the United States, is politically unfeasible. The failure to define what Brexit would actually look like, but then voting for it anyway, is an extraordinary failure of politics and statecraft and explains why Brexit is turning out to be such a dud, IMHO.
Went to bed? Fair enough! The moral of the story of Brexit, that it means different things to different people is something that those espousing (and indeed opposing) Scottish Independence would be well to heed. The last vote in 2014 was the classic Yes/No. We would have had an almighty row after the vote, pace Brexit, about currency, debt, the army, etc.
On Brexit I think it is too early to say, and will be for a considerable while. Did we exert more influence around the world as part of the EU than we do outside? I'm not convinced.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
I suspect that this shows that the Greens have more influence over the Scottish Government than would be expected. I think that Sturgeon and her confidants are closer to the Greens than they are to their traditional support.
The uncharitable might also think that Sturgeon is polishing her post-FM CV to secure some international sinecure….
Ex Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith warns: "[Sunak] said in summer, categorically, he considered China to be a systemic threat. What we’re seeing here is the beginnings of a step away from his original position. I hope he’s not about to do a U-turn, it would be completely wrong." https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592471784456085505
Osborne digging in his claws
Only interested in money not in geopolitics
In hindsight Dave and Ossie were very much in bed with the Chinese weren’t they?
But also Hunt - don’t the Chinese themselves refer to him as the Son in Law of China?
Hunt is in Osbornes camp.
Osborne was (is!) greedy and monomaniacal. He’s perfectly suited to Robey Warshaw
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
That's part of a wider rule that *visitors* can't wear politically related clothing, slogans, etc., to help discourage demonstrations, etc., in the chamber. So there is some point - and there is the same rule at Westminster.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
That's part of a wider rule that *visitors* can't wear politically related clothing, slogans, etc., to help discourage demonstrations, etc., in the chamber. So there is some point - and there is the same rule at Westminster.
I think Lab Maj is nailed on. I have it laid at an average of over 5 (from the days before Johnson blew up) and it's the absolute dog of my portfolio. It's amazing what's happened - the switch - but it has happened and my sense is it's baked in now. I see the Lab lead staying in double digits all the way through to the election.
Losing bet I'm afraid.
Starmer may be PM, but not at the head of a Labour majority.
I disagree but - technical correction - if you're right and Lab fail to get a majority that'd be a WINNING bet for me.
Which is a reason your lay is better than my Con backing. Plus you could get a pay out and a Labour (led) government.
It seemed a safe-as-houses lay at the time. Despite thinking what an absurdity it was that Boris Johnson was PM I just did not foresee his spectacular fall, which is what has changed everything. No that, no Truss, no "Lab nailed on".
Yes looks like LAB are going to win! I say that without any enthusiasm. I suspect the majority will be relatively small. Not much real enthusiasm for Keir and team even recognising that the current government is useless 👿
A small majority (or quite possibly, no majority) would almost certainly turn out to be a better Labour win for the country than a massive one.
Would you not be worried by the left being too influential if that happens? Eg a Lab equivalent of the ERG led by Richard Burgon?
The right wing weren't particularly influential under Cameron/Clegg - indeed the two of them used to play games with Cameron regularly using the 'threat' of what the LibDems might do or think to keep his nutters in line.
Yes but they had a good majority and a formal coalition. I was more thinking of what happens with a small Lab majority or Lab minority government.
Western commentators may be wrong about the Ukrainians being unable to cross the Dnipro and also about a pause in Ukrainian operations. It seems that the ZSU may have managed to get substantial forces across the river incredibly quickly and are now making flanking movements that are disrupting the ability of the Russians to stabilize their lines.
Still not yet confirmed, and there is an operational blackout on all information from the southern front, which may imply that there is something important is going on.
If the Russians are being pushed back from the Dnipro, then this is an emergency situation for them, it could lead to the breakdown of the entire southern front.
The governments of Estonia and Finland are meeting in Helsinki today, so no comment from the Estonian government side, but there are some quite cheerful looking high command types.
Yes looks like LAB are going to win! I say that without any enthusiasm. I suspect the majority will be relatively small. Not much real enthusiasm for Keir and team even recognising that the current government is useless 👿
A small majority (or quite possibly, no majority) would almost certainly turn out to be a better Labour win for the country than a massive one.
Would you not be worried by the left being too influential if that happens? Eg a Lab equivalent of the ERG led by Richard Burgon?
The right wing weren't particularly influential under Cameron/Clegg - indeed the two of them used to play games with Cameron regularly using the 'threat' of what the LibDems might do or think to keep his nutters in line.
Yes but they had a good majority and a formal coalition. I was more thinking of what happens with a small Lab majority or Lab minority government.
A Lab minority (but largest party) might actually work to Labour's advantage in that they could call a quick second election and put the squeeze on LD/Green/SNP.
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
It’s more likely that the next administration will recognise reality & move towards a closer alignment with the EU. Maybe not full EEA because that requires freedom of movement, but probably joining the customs union in order to get free trade with the EU.
The customs union only choice is the worst one and I'm surprised it keeps getting brought up as a viable suggestion. We'd have zero say about our trade policy to any other country and we'd merely be dragged along with whatever the EU wanted purely to make Dover a tiny bit simpler. It still would mean a hard border too for immigration purposes so you wouldn't remove queues.
I'd support EFTA (not EEA) because at least then we can still look outwards for other trade deals, but I still think this is 10 years in the future. The political appetite to properly reopen this is not there from either of the main two parties and it's pointless discussing it now as we might be in a different position even 2 years down the line.
We have free trade, but we don't have frictionless trade.
I'm well aware. The customs union option also wouldn't deliver frictionless trade in the way you might expect but would come with a lot of disadvantages including the possibility of having to give up many of the trade deals we've just signed or negotiated.
Turkey is the closest example of what it might look like and it provides nothing for services.
We haven't signed any trade deals though. OK, we signed one with AuzNZ which is so absurd that even the new PM has attacked how one sided against us it is.
The simple reality is that we remain aligned with the EU and that is where we will stay because the alternatives are too costly and too difficult to implement. We can't even add our own standards mark.
That happened because of Corbyn (fear of how close GE2017 was firming up the South) and to Get Brexit Done.
Those two factors don't apply anymore.
Traditional thinking would be that Labour couldn't get to a majority that easily in one hit but I think it's possible the Tory coalition splinters to every which way (in Scotland to Labour, up north to Labour, the South to Lib Dems and everywhere else fraying to Reform) such that they come through the middle.
Time for you to give it the big "Never In Doubt!" on the House, I think.
Yes looks like LAB are going to win! I say that without any enthusiasm. I suspect the majority will be relatively small. Not much real enthusiasm for Keir and team even recognising that the current government is useless 👿
A small majority (or quite possibly, no majority) would almost certainly turn out to be a better Labour win for the country than a massive one.
Would you not be worried by the left being too influential if that happens? Eg a Lab equivalent of the ERG led by Richard Burgon?
The right wing weren't particularly influential under Cameron/Clegg - indeed the two of them used to play games with Cameron regularly using the 'threat' of what the LibDems might do or think to keep his nutters in line.
Yes but they had a good majority and a formal coalition. I was more thinking of what happens with a small Lab majority or Lab minority government.
A Lab minority (but largest party) might actually work to Labour's advantage in that they could call a quick second election and put the squeeze on LD/Green/SNP.
Perhaps. But plan A has to be that big majority and "we are the masters now".
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
It’s more likely that the next administration will recognise reality & move towards a closer alignment with the EU. Maybe not full EEA because that requires freedom of movement, but probably joining the customs union in order to get free trade with the EU.
The customs union only choice is the worst one and I'm surprised it keeps getting brought up as a viable suggestion. We'd have zero say about our trade policy to any other country and we'd merely be dragged along with whatever the EU wanted purely to make Dover a tiny bit simpler. It still would mean a hard border too for immigration purposes so you wouldn't remove queues.
I'd support EFTA (not EEA) because at least then we can still look outwards for other trade deals, but I still think this is 10 years in the future. The political appetite to properly reopen this is not there from either of the main two parties and it's pointless discussing it now as we might be in a different position even 2 years down the line.
We have free trade, but we don't have frictionless trade.
I'm well aware. The customs union option also wouldn't deliver frictionless trade in the way you might expect but would come with a lot of disadvantages including the possibility of having to give up many of the trade deals we've just signed or negotiated.
Turkey is the closest example of what it might look like and it provides nothing for services.
All the choices are bad. The next government is going to pick the closest arrangement with the EU that they think they can get away with politically. Maybe that’s CU-only (I mean really, what great trade deals have we signed up to? We may as well not have bothered.), maybe it’s EFTA, maybe even EEA if the polity decides that free movement is worth returning to.
No one thinks the status quo is the best option, excepting perhaps the sovereignty true believers who are so obsessed with control that they’re willing to give up everything else to have it, even if by doing so they make that control meaningless.
Western commentators may be wrong about the Ukrainians being unable to cross the Dnipro and also about a pause in Ukrainian operations. It seems that the ZSU may have managed to get substantial forces across the river incredibly quickly and are now making flanking movements that are disrupting the ability of the Russians to stabilize their lines.
Still not yet confirmed, and there is an operational blackout on all information from the southern front, which may imply that there is something important is going on.
If the Russians are being pushed back from the Dnipro, then this is an emergency situation for them, it could lead to the breakdown of the entire southern front.
The governments of Estonia and Finland are meeting in Helsinki today, so no comment from the Estonian government side, but there are some quite cheerful looking high command types.
The claim that Russians are pulling back south away from the Dnipro River is partially confirmed by Russia's TASS report that the occupation administration of the city of Nova Kakhovka facing the liberated town of Kozatske across the Dnipro has left the city. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1592494008848334849
@Heathener is correct. The Tories are finished for the time being. Certainly for the next electoral cycle.
On the other hand the most likely GE date is 23 months hence in October 2024 - which implies we are now 22 months from Dissolution. If we consider how much the polls have shifted over the last 23 months since the closing weeks of 2020, it is not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility that 'events' will bring about a similar movement back to the Tories by Autumn 2024. How likely that is is another matter!
Reportedly multiple waves of Kh-101 cruise missiles, possibly first one passing over Sumy now, launched by Tu-95’s over Caspian Sea according to Ukrainian official in Kryvyi Rih https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1592503540911853570
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Opinium is no longer an opinion poll in the traditional sense - it is not a statement of current voting intention but rather a prediction of future voting intention having taken account of expected 'swingback.'
Still feeds into that table though, blips and all.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
That's part of a wider rule that *visitors* can't wear politically related clothing, slogans, etc., to help discourage demonstrations, etc., in the chamber. So there is some point - and there is the same rule at Westminster.
@Heathener is correct. The Tories are finished for the time being. Certainly for the next electoral cycle.
On the other hand the most likely GE date is 23 months hence in October 2024 - which implies we are now 22 months from Dissolution. If we consider how much the polls have shifted over the last 23 months since the closing weeks of 2020, it is not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility that 'events' will bring about a similar movement back to the Tories by Autumn 2024. How likely that is is another matter!
It would have to be an awfully big, unambiguously positive event... Winning a war against France would do the job, or something on that scale.
Two years of quietly competent government, carefully putting just as much load on each pair of shoulders as they can stand, might be the right thing for the country, but it won't turn the polls.
And a lot of the consequences of three years of noisy incompetent government still have to land.
I've been ill (flu, a week away from getting my jab) for a week, so alas missed the US election chat here, but these numbers have always seemed off to me and I guess it depends on what you think the point of legislative bodies are. If what you want is representation of the electorate, than the bigger a seat, the harder that is (if you have an electorate of millions of people, it is hard to say you're mandated a certain course if you only win half of them etc.) whereas if you think it's supposed to be "this person is there to represent their own views, but I just trust them as a person to do that" it works a bit more. The HoC in the UK and HoR in the US could easily be 10 times as big to accommodate the unprecedented increase in populations. Or, as has been noted about the US system (which has it's flaws), in the UK we should be giving much more power to more local levels of politics.
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
It’s more likely that the next administration will recognise reality & move towards a closer alignment with the EU. Maybe not full EEA because that requires freedom of movement, but probably joining the customs union in order to get free trade with the EU.
The customs union only choice is the worst one and I'm surprised it keeps getting brought up as a viable suggestion. We'd have zero say about our trade policy to any other country and we'd merely be dragged along with whatever the EU wanted purely to make Dover a tiny bit simpler. It still would mean a hard border too for immigration purposes so you wouldn't remove queues.
I'd support EFTA (not EEA) because at least then we can still look outwards for other trade deals, but I still think this is 10 years in the future. The political appetite to properly reopen this is not there from either of the main two parties and it's pointless discussing it now as we might be in a different position even 2 years down the line.
We have free trade, but we don't have frictionless trade.
I'm well aware. The customs union option also wouldn't deliver frictionless trade in the way you might expect but would come with a lot of disadvantages including the possibility of having to give up many of the trade deals we've just signed or negotiated.
Turkey is the closest example of what it might look like and it provides nothing for services.
We haven't signed any trade deals though. OK, we signed one with AuzNZ which is so absurd that even the new PM has attacked how one sided against us it is.
The simple reality is that we remain aligned with the EU and that is where we will stay because the alternatives are too costly and too difficult to implement. We can't even add our own standards mark.
As I have repeated many times before the problem is not with what trade deals we could sign but what trade deals the EU might sign. If we were in a customs union with the EU and they signed a trade deal with the US then the US would have customs free access to the UK but we would not have reciprocal rights with the US.
You could kiss goodbye to our long standing balance of trade surplus with the US or any other country in the world that the EU had a trade deal with.
Yes looks like LAB are going to win! I say that without any enthusiasm. I suspect the majority will be relatively small. Not much real enthusiasm for Keir and team even recognising that the current government is useless 👿
A small majority (or quite possibly, no majority) would almost certainly turn out to be a better Labour win for the country than a massive one.
Would you not be worried by the left being too influential if that happens? Eg a Lab equivalent of the ERG led by Richard Burgon?
The right wing weren't particularly influential under Cameron/Clegg - indeed the two of them used to play games with Cameron regularly using the 'threat' of what the LibDems might do or think to keep his nutters in line.
Yes but they had a good majority and a formal coalition. I was more thinking of what happens with a small Lab majority or Lab minority government.
A Lab minority (but largest party) might actually work to Labour's advantage in that they could call a quick second election and put the squeeze on LD/Green/SNP.
Perhaps. But plan A has to be that big majority and "we are the masters now".
If Lab can't win an overall majority in this climate, then when would they? If they called a quick second squeeze election, I'd be worried the electorate would be less likely to vote for me, not more.
If they don't have overall control (which atm looks highly unlikely, if they rake in 50% of the vote and the Tories aren't breaking 30% they would surely have a maj) they would likely have to do confidence and supply and provide PR or some concessions on Europe / devolution to get things going. Maybe Keir would call a second squeeze election in the safety he'd likely be PM even if he didn't secure a majority the second time around, but would he risk it?
@Heathener is correct. The Tories are finished for the time being. Certainly for the next electoral cycle.
On the other hand the most likely GE date is 23 months hence in October 2024 - which implies we are now 22 months from Dissolution. If we consider how much the polls have shifted over the last 23 months since the closing weeks of 2020, it is not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility that 'events' will bring about a similar movement back to the Tories by Autumn 2024. How likely that is is another matter!
It would have to be an awfully big, unambiguously positive event... Winning a war against France would do the job, or something on that scale.
Two years of quietly competent government, carefully putting just as much load on each pair of shoulders as they can stand, might be the right thing for the country, but it won't turn the polls.
And a lot of the consequences of three years of noisy incompetent government still have to land.
That is fair enough. Two precedents might be worth considering. In Spring 1968 the Tories enjoyed a 28% lead over Wilson's Labour Government. In mid- June 1970 the Tories under Heath won the election - in defiance of the polls - by 2.5% Spring 1977 saw the Tories 25% ahead of Callaghan's Government. At the beginning of May 1979 the Tories won by 7.1% under Thatcher. However, to this day many believe that had Callaghan called the election for early Autumn 1978 he might well have won given that some polls had Labour 5% - 6% ahead.
I've been ill (flu, a week away from getting my jab) for a week, so alas missed the US election chat here, but these numbers have always seemed off to me and I guess it depends on what you think the point of legislative bodies are. If what you want is representation of the electorate, than the bigger a seat, the harder that is (if you have an electorate of millions of people, it is hard to say you're mandated a certain course if you only win half of them etc.) whereas if you think it's supposed to be "this person is there to represent their own views, but I just trust them as a person to do that" it works a bit more. The HoC in the UK and HoR in the US could easily be 10 times as big to accommodate the unprecedented increase in populations. Or, as has been noted about the US system (which has it's flaws), in the UK we should be giving much more power to more local levels of politics.
Isn’t there a cube root law? The size of legislatures is approximately the cube root of the population. The UK’s legislature is large by international standards; you can do comparisons to numerous countries, not just the US. But that’s arguably because we have FPTP. With FPTP, more seats increases proportionality, so there’s a pressure to increase seat numbers to achieve better proportionality. In countries that have proportional systems, this isn’t an issue.
I think Lab Maj is nailed on. I have it laid at an average of over 5 (from the days before Johnson blew up) and it's the absolute dog of my portfolio. It's amazing what's happened - the switch - but it has happened and my sense is it's baked in now. I see the Lab lead staying in double digits all the way through to the election.
Losing bet I'm afraid.
Starmer may be PM, but not at the head of a Labour majority.
I think Lab Maj is nailed on. I have it laid at an average of over 5 (from the days before Johnson blew up) and it's the absolute dog of my portfolio. It's amazing what's happened - the switch - but it has happened and my sense is it's baked in now. I see the Lab lead staying in double digits all the way through to the election.
Losing bet I'm afraid.
Starmer may be PM, but not at the head of a Labour majority.
Eh ??
Coalition of course.
Did that really need explaining???
A Coalition is very unlikely.A Minority Government is distinctly possible.
The Labour Party isn't pro-Brexit, and never has been. It campaigned to remain, but lost. So Brexit has happened, against the Labour Party's wishes. Having lost, quite sensibly in order to win the next election, the Labour Party is seeking to make Brexit work much better than the Tories.
Brexit cannot work.
For much the same reason as The Oaf cannot win a 100 yard dash.
The product design is not fit for purpose.
I agree that Brexit is a dud, a dismal and costly cul de sac for Britain, from which we will probably eventually reverse. However, there will be no possibility of reversing course until there is a clear and stable majority in favour of that. I would say a 2:1 margin at least. Apart from anything else, the EU won't want us to dick them about by joining and then changing our mind again. So for the time being, Labour should respect the vote and try to make the best of things. Public opinion will gradually move towards rejoining. Or perhaps a compromise semi detached relationship will emerge as a new stable equilibrium. Who knows, perhaps Brexit will turn out to be okay. I mean, I don't think it will, but the future is uncertain. Trying to make it work is a sensible course for now.
It’s more likely that the next administration will recognise reality & move towards a closer alignment with the EU. Maybe not full EEA because that requires freedom of movement, but probably joining the customs union in order to get free trade with the EU.
The customs union only choice is the worst one and I'm surprised it keeps getting brought up as a viable suggestion. We'd have zero say about our trade policy to any other country and we'd merely be dragged along with whatever the EU wanted purely to make Dover a tiny bit simpler. It still would mean a hard border too for immigration purposes so you wouldn't remove queues.
I'd support EFTA (not EEA) because at least then we can still look outwards for other trade deals, but I still think this is 10 years in the future. The political appetite to properly reopen this is not there from either of the main two parties and it's pointless discussing it now as we might be in a different position even 2 years down the line.
We have free trade, but we don't have frictionless trade.
I'm well aware. The customs union option also wouldn't deliver frictionless trade in the way you might expect but would come with a lot of disadvantages including the possibility of having to give up many of the trade deals we've just signed or negotiated.
Turkey is the closest example of what it might look like and it provides nothing for services.
We haven't signed any trade deals though. OK, we signed one with AuzNZ which is so absurd that even the new PM has attacked how one sided against us it is.
The simple reality is that we remain aligned with the EU and that is where we will stay because the alternatives are too costly and too difficult to implement. We can't even add our own standards mark.
As I have repeated many times before the problem is not with what trade deals we could sign but what trade deals the EU might sign. If we were in a customs union with the EU and they signed a trade deal with the US then the US would have customs free access to the UK but we would not have reciprocal rights with the US.
You could kiss goodbye to our long standing balance of trade surplus with the US or any other country in the world that the EU had a trade deal with.
Which why I advocate EFTA/EEA as well as the CU. Most of the "trade deals" that idiot Truss signed simply took the existing EU deal and made it also bilaterally apply to the UK. So reversing that would hardly be difficult.
We are incapable of implementing our own customs deal with the EU. We are incapable of implementing our own new standards insignia regime. We are incapable of negotiating a new deal that isn't massively one-sided. This is just reality as stated by Tory ministers. At which point do we accept what these facts mean and get back into free trade?
I've been ill (flu, a week away from getting my jab) for a week, so alas missed the US election chat here, but these numbers have always seemed off to me and I guess it depends on what you think the point of legislative bodies are. If what you want is representation of the electorate, than the bigger a seat, the harder that is (if you have an electorate of millions of people, it is hard to say you're mandated a certain course if you only win half of them etc.) whereas if you think it's supposed to be "this person is there to represent their own views, but I just trust them as a person to do that" it works a bit more. The HoC in the UK and HoR in the US could easily be 10 times as big to accommodate the unprecedented increase in populations. Or, as has been noted about the US system (which has it's flaws), in the UK we should be giving much more power to more local levels of politics.
Isn’t there a cube root law? The size of legislatures is approximately the cube root of the population. The UK’s legislature is large by international standards; you can do comparisons to numerous countries, not just the US. But that’s arguably because we have FPTP. With FPTP, more seats increases proportionality, so there’s a pressure to increase seat numbers to achieve better proportionality. In countries that have proportional systems, this isn’t an issue.
Possibly. I would also say that alongside FPTP we have a very centralised politics - whereas US and others (like Germany) have a much more equitable federal system allowing people to feel represented both locally and nationally. In the UK everything, from your local school to pot holes to libraries, can be put on MPs despite the fact national government shouldn't have much to do with that (but they increasingly have due to spending cuts). If local councils were given more autonomy and funded properly, I think you'd see a lot more people be happy with the state of national politics, it's just that both are highly dysfunctional atm.
@Heathener is correct. The Tories are finished for the time being. Certainly for the next electoral cycle.
On the other hand the most likely GE date is 23 months hence in October 2024 - which implies we are now 22 months from Dissolution. If we consider how much the polls have shifted over the last 23 months since the closing weeks of 2020, it is not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility that 'events' will bring about a similar movement back to the Tories by Autumn 2024. How likely that is is another matter!
It would have to be an awfully big, unambiguously positive event... Winning a war against France would do the job, or something on that scale.
Two years of quietly competent government, carefully putting just as much load on each pair of shoulders as they can stand, might be the right thing for the country, but it won't turn the polls.
And a lot of the consequences of three years of noisy incompetent government still have to land.
That is fair enough. Two precedents might be worth considering. In Spring 1968 the Tories enjoyed a 28% lead over Wilson's Labour Government. In mid- June 1970 the Tories under Heath won the election - in defiance of the polls - by 2.5% Spring 1977 saw the Tories 25% ahead of Callaghan's Government. At the beginning of May 1979 the Tories won by 7.1% under Thatcher. However, to this day many believe that had Callaghan called the election for early Autumn 1978 he might well have won given that some polls had Labour 5% - 6% ahead.
Everything is possible in politics. So for a mega swing in the polls there needs to be a mega event, a political black swan. It definitely could happen, it just feels very very unlikely in the circumstances of where we are.
@Heathener is correct. The Tories are finished for the time being. Certainly for the next electoral cycle.
On the other hand the most likely GE date is 23 months hence in October 2024 - which implies we are now 22 months from Dissolution. If we consider how much the polls have shifted over the last 23 months since the closing weeks of 2020, it is not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility that 'events' will bring about a similar movement back to the Tories by Autumn 2024. How likely that is is another matter!
It would have to be an awfully big, unambiguously positive event... Winning a war against France would do the job, or something on that scale.
Two years of quietly competent government, carefully putting just as much load on each pair of shoulders as they can stand, might be the right thing for the country, but it won't turn the polls.
And a lot of the consequences of three years of noisy incompetent government still have to land.
That's right, I think. And although I'm not exactly expecting "2 years of competent government" at least there's a chance of it now. If so, it's the best of all possible worlds from my point of view. A 'not terrible' government at last but also the prospect of Cons out, Lab in next time.
In fact I'm feeling some positivity generally atm. Apart from the above there's:
- Donald Trump is toast. He might not do time – although fingers crossed – but he won’t be getting anywhere near the White House again.
- Vladimir Putin has failed dismally in his attempt to butcher and occupy Ukraine. It's now only a matter of how he can extricate himself. Really don't see nuclear as a part of that.
- Bolsonaro has been ousted in Brazil and afaik the feared election denial and violence there hasn’t happened.
- Inflation and interest rate prospects have ameliorated. Things maybe aren’t going to be quite as grim after all.
Tempting fate, so maybe a mis-post, but I do feel more sunnyside up than say a few weeks ago.
Buckfast sales in Scotland surged 40 per cent after Nicola Sturgeon introduced alcohol minimum pricing, according to an official analysis that prompted more warnings her flagship public health policy had backfired…
I don't see how people can argue that Lab don't look set for a Maj when they're averaging high 40s% versus mid 20s% from Conservatives. LDs are polling very low, Greens aren't pulling anything out of the bag, and only SNP look like they're performing well. Maybe the idea that a GE is probs at least 2 years away but considering that Sunak isn't sustaining a bounce, I don't see them making up a huge amount of gains with the economy looking like it is.
Yes looks like LAB are going to win! I say that without any enthusiasm. I suspect the majority will be relatively small. Not much real enthusiasm for Keir and team even recognising that the current government is useless 👿
A small majority (or quite possibly, no majority) would almost certainly turn out to be a better Labour win for the country than a massive one.
Would you not be worried by the left being too influential if that happens? Eg a Lab equivalent of the ERG led by Richard Burgon?
The right wing weren't particularly influential under Cameron/Clegg - indeed the two of them used to play games with Cameron regularly using the 'threat' of what the LibDems might do or think to keep his nutters in line.
Yes but they had a good majority and a formal coalition. I was more thinking of what happens with a small Lab majority or Lab minority government.
A Lab minority (but largest party) might actually work to Labour's advantage in that they could call a quick second election and put the squeeze on LD/Green/SNP.
Perhaps. But plan A has to be that big majority and "we are the masters now".
If Lab can't win an overall majority in this climate, then when would they? If they called a quick second squeeze election, I'd be worried the electorate would be less likely to vote for me, not more.
If they don't have overall control (which atm looks highly unlikely, if they rake in 50% of the vote and the Tories aren't breaking 30% they would surely have a maj) they would likely have to do confidence and supply and provide PR or some concessions on Europe / devolution to get things going. Maybe Keir would call a second squeeze election in the safety he'd likely be PM even if he didn't secure a majority the second time around, but would he risk it?
Hard to say - but I personally think he'd seek to put together the most stable arrangement possible and get his head down PMing for a few years.
I don't see how people can argue that Lab don't look set for a Maj when they're averaging high 40s% versus mid 20s% from Conservatives. LDs are polling very low, Greens aren't pulling anything out of the bag, and only SNP look like they're performing well. Maybe the idea that a GE is probs at least 2 years away but considering that Sunak isn't sustaining a bounce, I don't see them making up a huge amount of gains with the economy looking like it is.
Look back to the depths of Thatcherite unpopularity during her first and second terms, followed by election wins.
No-one thinks the Tories can recover to that extent - but it is the case that during midterm voters only look at the government; come the election, they weigh up the opposition as a potential alternative. Few yet see either Labour’s team or its policy prospectus as particularly convincing.
I think Lab Maj is nailed on. I have it laid at an average of over 5 (from the days before Johnson blew up) and it's the absolute dog of my portfolio. It's amazing what's happened - the switch - but it has happened and my sense is it's baked in now. I see the Lab lead staying in double digits all the way through to the election.
Losing bet I'm afraid.
Starmer may be PM, but not at the head of a Labour majority.
Eh ??
Coalition of course.
Did that really need explaining???
A Coalition is very unlikely. A Minority Government is distinctly possible.
The SNP might provide votes on Scottish matters within a formal coalition - it is just a question of the price. Depending on the maths of the majority, it may also have to provide confidence and supply on all other UK-wide matters where sitting it out would cause the measure to fall.
Why would the LibDems not want to enter into a formal Coalition with Labour? They did with the Tories.
I think Lab Maj is nailed on. I have it laid at an average of over 5 (from the days before Johnson blew up) and it's the absolute dog of my portfolio. It's amazing what's happened - the switch - but it has happened and my sense is it's baked in now. I see the Lab lead staying in double digits all the way through to the election.
Losing bet I'm afraid.
Starmer may be PM, but not at the head of a Labour majority.
Eh ??
Coalition of course.
Did that really need explaining???
A Coalition is very unlikely. A Minority Government is distinctly possible.
The SNP might provide votes on Scottish matters within a formal coalition - it is just a question of the price. Depending on the maths of the majority, it may also have to provide confidence and supply on all other UK-wide matters where sitting it out would cause the measure to fall.
Why would the LibDems not want to enter into a formal Coalition with Labour? They did with the Tories.
They did so in Scotland for many years - indeed, the present Holyrood setup, including the careful concoction of the voting system, was very much a Lab-LD creation.
I think Lab Maj is nailed on. I have it laid at an average of over 5 (from the days before Johnson blew up) and it's the absolute dog of my portfolio. It's amazing what's happened - the switch - but it has happened and my sense is it's baked in now. I see the Lab lead staying in double digits all the way through to the election.
Losing bet I'm afraid.
Starmer may be PM, but not at the head of a Labour majority.
Eh ??
Coalition of course.
Did that really need explaining???
The confusion was because you'd replied to my post which was banging on about my ghastly lay Lab Maj bet. Which would actually be a shock winner if you turn out to be correct about them falling short and having to look at coalitions etc.
Not just all the Suffragette colours - any of them:
Scotland: led by a self-identified “real” feminist. Also where the colour purple is considered seditious. A woman wearing a purple scarf is ejected from the Scottish parliament. Her crime? Being female it seems. What has happened to my country?
Buckfast sales in Scotland surged 40 per cent after Nicola Sturgeon introduced alcohol minimum pricing, according to an official analysis that prompted more warnings her flagship public health policy had backfired…
A triumph of selective reporting - both the article and your comment. Less money spent on cheap drinks with low prices per unit of alcohol, so less alcohol overall.
I don't see how people can argue that Lab don't look set for a Maj when they're averaging high 40s% versus mid 20s% from Conservatives. LDs are polling very low, Greens aren't pulling anything out of the bag, and only SNP look like they're performing well. Maybe the idea that a GE is probs at least 2 years away but considering that Sunak isn't sustaining a bounce, I don't see them making up a huge amount of gains with the economy looking like it is.
Look at the Tory voter strike during the tail end of the May Government.
They came back massively. There is a sizeable wedge of the Tory vote that likes to express its displeasure with how things are. Doesn't mean they like Labour - or indeed, will ultimately vote for them.
I think Lab Maj is nailed on. I have it laid at an average of over 5 (from the days before Johnson blew up) and it's the absolute dog of my portfolio. It's amazing what's happened - the switch - but it has happened and my sense is it's baked in now. I see the Lab lead staying in double digits all the way through to the election.
Losing bet I'm afraid.
Starmer may be PM, but not at the head of a Labour majority.
Eh ??
Coalition of course.
Did that really need explaining???
A Coalition is very unlikely. A Minority Government is distinctly possible.
The SNP might provide votes on Scottish matters within a formal coalition - it is just a question of the price. Depending on the maths of the majority, it may also have to provide confidence and supply on all other UK-wide matters where sitting it out would cause the measure to fall.
Why would the LibDems not want to enter into a formal Coalition with Labour? They did with the Tories.
Labour would not offer a Coalition to either the SNP or the LDs. The Tory- DUP arrangement post June 2017 is the much more likely precedent - or something similar to the Lib/Lab pact which ran from March 1977 to Autumn 1978.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
That's part of a wider rule that *visitors* can't wear politically related clothing, slogans, etc., to help discourage demonstrations, etc., in the chamber. So there is some point - and there is the same rule at Westminster.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
I suspect that this shows that the Greens have more influence over the Scottish Government than would be expected. I think that Sturgeon and her confidants are closer to the Greens than they are to their traditional support.
The uncharitable might also think that Sturgeon is polishing her post-FM CV to secure some international sinecure….
Both of you are confusing the Scottish Parliament Corporate Body with the Scottish Government.
I don't see how people can argue that Lab don't look set for a Maj when they're averaging high 40s% versus mid 20s% from Conservatives. LDs are polling very low, Greens aren't pulling anything out of the bag, and only SNP look like they're performing well. Maybe the idea that a GE is probs at least 2 years away but considering that Sunak isn't sustaining a bounce, I don't see them making up a huge amount of gains with the economy looking like it is.
Look at the Tory voter strike during the tail end of the May Government.
They came back massively. There is a sizeable wedge of the Tory vote that likes to express its displeasure with how things are. Doesn't mean they like Labour - or indeed, will ultimately vote for them.
Indeed plus a fair number of DKs who may swing back to Tory to give a hung parliament
Yes looks like LAB are going to win! I say that without any enthusiasm. I suspect the majority will be relatively small. Not much real enthusiasm for Keir and team even recognising that the current government is useless 👿
A small majority (or quite possibly, no majority) would almost certainly turn out to be a better Labour win for the country than a massive one.
Would you not be worried by the left being too influential if that happens? Eg a Lab equivalent of the ERG led by Richard Burgon?
The right wing weren't particularly influential under Cameron/Clegg - indeed the two of them used to play games with Cameron regularly using the 'threat' of what the LibDems might do or think to keep his nutters in line.
Yes but they had a good majority and a formal coalition. I was more thinking of what happens with a small Lab majority or Lab minority government.
A Lab minority (but largest party) might actually work to Labour's advantage in that they could call a quick second election and put the squeeze on LD/Green/SNP.
Perhaps. But plan A has to be that big majority and "we are the masters now".
If Lab can't win an overall majority in this climate, then when would they? If they called a quick second squeeze election, I'd be worried the electorate would be less likely to vote for me, not more.
But it’s not just the climate - it’s the swing.
Most people (but not all, as pollsters know!) remember how they voted last time. Having made a decision it’s human nature to defend it - beyond the point at which a newcomer, objectively weighing the evidence, would come to the opposite conclusion. This basic aspect of human thinking acts as a brake on the number of people who are prepared to switch at the succeeding election, particularly if it follows soon after.
A Labour majority requires an exceptional number of people who backed the Tories last time to admit that they were wrong - and while many will, some won’t. For people who don’t follow politics particularly closely, an abstention may be an easier option than jumping straight to the opposing team. Hence a government just scrapes in can hope that a second election soon after will pull over that vital few extra supporters to get them more comfortably across the line.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
@moonshine thankyou for the tip about the Graham Hancock show on Netflix. Will watch
I see a huge Twitter-storm has erupted around it, with Woke anthropologists accusing him of white supremacism. WTAF
Afternoon Leon. Don't know about this but a big hat tip for the 5/1 nap you gave us for Hobbs to defeat K. Lake for AZ governor. I wish I'd followed it because it seems to have happened. K. Lake has lost. I think your betting recommendations are in general just that teeny bit better than is sometimes portrayed. Looking forward to plenty more in the future.
I don't see how people can argue that Lab don't look set for a Maj when they're averaging high 40s% versus mid 20s% from Conservatives. LDs are polling very low, Greens aren't pulling anything out of the bag, and only SNP look like they're performing well. Maybe the idea that a GE is probs at least 2 years away but considering that Sunak isn't sustaining a bounce, I don't see them making up a huge amount of gains with the economy looking like it is.
Look back to the depths of Thatcherite unpopularity during her first and second terms, followed by election wins.
No-one thinks the Tories can recover to that extent - but it is the case that during midterm voters only look at the government; come the election, they weigh up the opposition as a potential alternative. Few yet see either Labour’s team or its policy prospectus as particularly convincing.
I think your last paragraph favours Starmer. Like you say, during the election the electorate weigh up the opposition as a potential alternative. Few see their prospectus as convincing because it doesn't matter this far out when the electorate aren't really paying attention.
Interestingly Deborah Mattinson identified this during the 2017 GE, that people hadn't paid attention to Corbyn and so were not as aware of his shortfalls as journalists/keener observers of politics were. Mattinson is currently Starmer's director of strategy and I believe their strategy is informed by the fact that the electorate rarely pay close attention to politics.
Yes looks like LAB are going to win! I say that without any enthusiasm. I suspect the majority will be relatively small. Not much real enthusiasm for Keir and team even recognising that the current government is useless 👿
A small majority (or quite possibly, no majority) would almost certainly turn out to be a better Labour win for the country than a massive one.
Would you not be worried by the left being too influential if that happens? Eg a Lab equivalent of the ERG led by Richard Burgon?
The right wing weren't particularly influential under Cameron/Clegg - indeed the two of them used to play games with Cameron regularly using the 'threat' of what the LibDems might do or think to keep his nutters in line.
Yes but they had a good majority and a formal coalition. I was more thinking of what happens with a small Lab majority or Lab minority government.
A Lab minority (but largest party) might actually work to Labour's advantage in that they could call a quick second election and put the squeeze on LD/Green/SNP.
Perhaps. But plan A has to be that big majority and "we are the masters now".
If Lab can't win an overall majority in this climate, then when would they? If they called a quick second squeeze election, I'd be worried the electorate would be less likely to vote for me, not more.
But it’s not just the climate - it’s the swing.
Most people (but not all, as pollsters know!) remember how they voted last time. Having made a decision it’s human nature to defend it - beyond the point at which a newcomer, objectively weighing the evidence, would come to the opposite conclusion. This basic aspect of human thinking acts as a brake on the number of people who are prepared to switch at the succeeding election, particularly if it follows soon after.
A Labour majority requires an exceptional number of people who backed the Tories last time to admit that they were wrong - and while many will, some won’t.
It’s not necessarily about admitting that they were wrong to vote Tory last time because today’s Conservative party is under a (second) different leader, and enacting different policies. People can rationalise to themselves that they were right last time, it’s the Conservatives who have changed, not them.
Until you head over there… to watch the tumbleweed.
All the wokiest leftiest most annoyingly right on Twitterers are urgently telling everyone their new handles on Mastodon. Which, of course, is entirely self defeating
Anyone with an ounce of non-Wokeness will shiver, and think No way. It will be a Woke ghetto and it will fail, as I have predicted
I don't see how people can argue that Lab don't look set for a Maj when they're averaging high 40s% versus mid 20s% from Conservatives. LDs are polling very low, Greens aren't pulling anything out of the bag, and only SNP look like they're performing well. Maybe the idea that a GE is probs at least 2 years away but considering that Sunak isn't sustaining a bounce, I don't see them making up a huge amount of gains with the economy looking like it is.
Look back to the depths of Thatcherite unpopularity during her first and second terms, followed by election wins.
No-one thinks the Tories can recover to that extent - but it is the case that during midterm voters only look at the government; come the election, they weigh up the opposition as a potential alternative. Few yet see either Labour’s team or its policy prospectus as particularly convincing.
I think your last paragraph favours Starmer. Like you say, during the election the electorate weigh up the opposition as a potential alternative. Few see their prospectus as convincing because it doesn't matter this far out when the electorate aren't really paying attention.
Interestingly Deborah Mattinson identified this during the 2017 GE, that people hadn't paid attention to Corbyn and so were not as aware of his shortfalls as journalists/keener observers of politics were. Mattinson is currently Starmer's director of strategy and I believe their strategy is informed by the fact that the electorate rarely pay close attention to politics.
Indeed so. Election campaigns actually tend to favour the Opposition. 'Swingback' from midterm unpopularity should have taken place in the period prior to Dissolution, but thereafter the Opposition usually benefits.
Scottish Conservative MSP Russell Findlay said: “It’s shocking that the Scottish Parliament thinks it’s acceptable to police a woman’s clothing in this manner with the order to remove a scarf in the colours of the suffragettes.
“To do so during the discussion of a Bill that would limit the rights of women and girls makes it even worse.
“You can buy items bearing suffragette colours in the Scottish Parliament gift shop but for some baffling reason, you can’t wear these colours while listening to a committee.
I suspect that this shows that the Greens have more influence over the Scottish Government than would be expected. I think that Sturgeon and her confidants are closer to the Greens than they are to their traditional support.
The uncharitable might also think that Sturgeon is polishing her post-FM CV to secure some international sinecure….
Weren't you and your ilk saying that in 2021? And 2020? And 2019? etc
Excited to see the new WoS-Albanians-PB Yoon coalition, sure to be an electoral smash I'm sure.
Buckfast sales in Scotland surged 40 per cent after Nicola Sturgeon introduced alcohol minimum pricing, according to an official analysis that prompted more warnings her flagship public health policy had backfired…
A triumph of selective reporting - both the article and your comment. Less money spent on cheap drinks with low prices per unit of alcohol, so less alcohol overall.
I believe Bucky has lowered its price in real terms over the last few years which may also be a factor..
Until you head over there… to watch the tumbleweed.
All the wokiest leftiest most annoyingly right on Twitterers are urgently telling everyone their new handles on Mastodon. Which, of course, is entirely self defeating
Anyone with an ounce of non-Wokeness will shiver, and think No way. It will be a Woke ghetto and it will fail, as I have predicted
A bit like Truth Social, Telegram and all the other crap sites the white supremacist loons headed over to.
May not be the end of the world then. The wokists can have their own echo chamber and not bother anyone else. The supremacists can have their own echo chamber and not bother anyone else.
And everyone sane can have Twitter as tumbleweed where nothing happens as without the echo chamber and pointless trolling of each other that site has bugger all left to it.
Until you head over there… to watch the tumbleweed.
All the wokiest leftiest most annoyingly right on Twitterers are urgently telling everyone their new handles on Mastodon. Which, of course, is entirely self defeating
Anyone with an ounce of non-Wokeness will shiver, and think No way. It will be a Woke ghetto and it will fail, as I have predicted
Mastodon has bimbled along not failing for the last five years or so. I imagine it will continue to no fail in much the same way, regardless of what happens to Twitter.
As your regular posting here might indicate, sometimes it’s nice to be part of a community instead of a speck on the windshield of an SV social media company.
Until you head over there… to watch the tumbleweed.
All the wokiest leftiest most annoyingly right on Twitterers are urgently telling everyone their new handles on Mastodon. Which, of course, is entirely self defeating
Anyone with an ounce of non-Wokeness will shiver, and think No way. It will be a Woke ghetto and it will fail, as I have predicted
A bit like Truth Social, Telegram and all the other crap sites the white supremacist loons headed over to.
May not be the end of the world then. The wokists can have their own echo chamber and not bother anyone else. The supremacists can have their own echo chamber and not bother anyone else.
And everyone sane can have Twitter as tumbleweed where nothing happens as without the echo chamber and pointless trolling of each other that site has bugger all left to it.
Maybe in the future every social medium will fail. We can but hope
@moonshine thankyou for the tip about the Graham Hancock show on Netflix. Will watch
I see a huge Twitter-storm has erupted around it, with Woke anthropologists accusing him of white supremacism. WTAF
Afternoon Leon. Don't know about this but a big hat tip for the 5/1 nap you gave us for Hobbs to defeat K. Lake for AZ governor. I wish I'd followed it because it seems to have happened. K. Lake has lost. I think your betting recommendations are in general just that teeny bit better than is sometimes portrayed. Looking forward to plenty more in the future.
Lol!!
Leon has been Kari’s cheerleader on here for many months - bopping about with his “Give me a K!”, etc - even claiming to have tipped her as first female US President before she was spotted by the American media - and he made his contrary post simply to hedge his bets once it started to look as if the curse of his support had maybe soiled her bed.
Truly, one can’t blame Kari for thinking that her election win has been stolen from her.
She will never have heard of the Curse of Leondamus, nor seen the shadow of the Jonah fall across her land when he arrived in her state, last month.
She might have felt a brief, cold, dreadful shiver down her spine, as Frodo did when the Dark Riders were close.
But, suddenly, her expected win has disappeared. And an American, faced with the unexpected, only has two potential explanations - a deep state conspiracy, or aliens.
And even Kari isn’t so loopy as to blame her defeat on aliens!
Buckfast sales in Scotland surged 40 per cent after Nicola Sturgeon introduced alcohol minimum pricing, according to an official analysis that prompted more warnings her flagship public health policy had backfired…
A triumph of selective reporting - both the article and your comment. Less money spent on cheap drinks with low prices per unit of alcohol, so less alcohol overall.
I believe Bucky has lowered its price in real terms over the last few years which may also be a factor..
Always one of the more expensive vintages favoured by your more discerning, erm, consumer of a certain type, anyway.
Edit: ceretainly compared to white ciders and similar bulk paintbrush cleaners.
@moonshine thankyou for the tip about the Graham Hancock show on Netflix. Will watch
I see a huge Twitter-storm has erupted around it, with Woke anthropologists accusing him of white supremacism. WTAF
Afternoon Leon. Don't know about this but a big hat tip for the 5/1 nap you gave us for Hobbs to defeat K. Lake for AZ governor. I wish I'd followed it because it seems to have happened. K. Lake has lost. I think your betting recommendations are in general just that teeny bit better than is sometimes portrayed. Looking forward to plenty more in the future.
lol, ta
Are you trying to make me feel guilty for being a bit mean to you last night? If so, apologies. I was possibly a little surly
Comments
I'd support EFTA (not EEA) because at least then we can still look outwards for other trade deals, but I still think this is 10 years in the future. The political appetite to properly reopen this is not there from either of the main two parties and it's pointless discussing it now as we might be in a different position even 2 years down the line.
That happened because of Corbyn (fear of how close GE2017 was firming up the South) and to Get Brexit Done.
Those two factors don't apply anymore.
Traditional thinking would be that Labour couldn't get to a majority that easily in one hit but I think it's possible the Tory coalition splinters to every which way (in Scotland to Labour, up north to Labour, the South to Lib Dems and everywhere else fraying to Reform) such that they come through the middle.
It's what I always do in my head though. Even in normal life as opposed to betting. Eg I'll be chatting to my wife and she'll say "are you playing golf tomorrow?" and I'll go "80% chance of that as we speak". And I like it when other people can quantify a probability when they're giving me opinions in conversation on things they think might happen. Often I push them to, but I back off if I sense irritation.
Coping with Global Warming is bad enough without being compounded by the Curse of Leondamus
But also Hunt - don’t the Chinese themselves refer to him as the Son in Law of China?
https://poliengine.com/blog/how-many-politicians-are-there-in-the-us
There are very legitimate arguments for lords reform (which will never happen cos the chief commoners in the other place don't want to lose a favourite loyalty carrot), but comparisons to the US system don't actually say much.
4 Ex-Presidents Who Ran Again — And What They Mean for Trump
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/15/why-they-ran-again-00066579
https://xkcd.com/386/
SNP and Green MSPs voted against Russell Findlay’s amendments to restrict access to GRC process by sex offenders.
https://twitter.com/lnmackenzie1/status/1592469570870468608
What could possibly go wrong?
Well, this:
https://www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-stories/2019/10-october/male-bodied-transgender-inmate-housed-with-women-prisoners
Turkey is the closest example of what it might look like and it provides nothing for services.
Osborne was (is!) greedy and monomaniacal. He’s perfectly suited to Robey Warshaw
@Heathener is correct. The Tories are finished for the time being. Certainly for the next electoral cycle.
https://inews.co.uk/news/black-poppy-meaning-explained-what-represent-remembrance-day-1293476#:~:text=What does the black poppy mean? The black,Pacific Islanders who lost their lives at war.
Local Politician tries to save some cash and triggers an avalanche effect across South Korea as local government guarantees are no longer trusted.
Trussing your economy is not unique to just the UK
https://heraldscotland.com/politics/23125768.woman-suffragette-colours-asked-leave-holyrood-committee-
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1592487345663905792
Still not yet confirmed, and there is an operational blackout on all information from the southern front, which may imply that there is something important is going on.
If the Russians are being pushed back from the Dnipro, then this is an emergency situation for them, it could lead to the breakdown of the entire southern front.
The governments of Estonia and Finland are meeting in Helsinki today, so no comment from the Estonian government side, but there are some quite cheerful looking high command types.
The simple reality is that we remain aligned with the EU and that is where we will stay because the alternatives are too costly and too difficult to implement. We can't even add our own standards mark.
Situation Trussed, opposition awaits Tories.
Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker (R) criticizes Sen. Raphael Warnock's (D) parenting:
"He paid himself for childcare, all that stuff — why don't he keep his own kids? Don't have nobody keep your kids. ... I keep my own, even though he lied about me."
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1592219615429824512
I don't think he's going to win the runoff, somehow.
No one thinks the status quo is the best option, excepting perhaps the sovereignty true believers who are so obsessed with control that they’re willing to give up everything else to have it, even if by doing so they make that control meaningless.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1592494008848334849
Russia declared Henichesk a regional "capital" to consolidate defenses in Ukraine's south - British Intelligence
"Above all, it is currently out of range of Ukrainian artillery systems"
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1592492611289292800
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1592503540911853570
Two years of quietly competent government, carefully putting just as much load on each pair of shoulders as they can stand, might be the right thing for the country, but it won't turn the polls.
And a lot of the consequences of three years of noisy incompetent government still have to land.
You could kiss goodbye to our long standing balance of trade surplus with the US or any other country in the world that the EU had a trade deal with.
Russian missle, Kyiv Region [VIDEO]
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1592506219117543426
Doesn’t look “hypersonic” to me…..
If they don't have overall control (which atm looks highly unlikely, if they rake in 50% of the vote and the Tories aren't breaking 30% they would surely have a maj) they would likely have to do confidence and supply and provide PR or some concessions on Europe / devolution to get things going. Maybe Keir would call a second squeeze election in the safety he'd likely be PM even if he didn't secure a majority the second time around, but would he risk it?
Spring 1977 saw the Tories 25% ahead of Callaghan's Government. At the beginning of May 1979 the Tories won by 7.1% under Thatcher. However, to this day many believe that had Callaghan called the election for early Autumn 1978 he might well have won given that some polls had Labour 5% - 6% ahead.
https://mastodon.social
Did that really need explaining???
We are incapable of implementing our own customs deal with the EU. We are incapable of implementing our own new standards insignia regime. We are incapable of negotiating a new deal that isn't massively one-sided. This is just reality as stated by Tory ministers. At which point do we accept what these facts mean and get back into free trade?
electionmaps.uk/polling
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1592495169068486656?s=46&t=kauyGoQWOWWYQhb-p-yE4g
In fact I'm feeling some positivity generally atm. Apart from the above there's:
- Donald Trump is toast. He might not do time – although fingers crossed – but he won’t be getting anywhere near the White House again.
- Vladimir Putin has failed dismally in his attempt to butcher and occupy Ukraine. It's now only a matter of how he can extricate himself. Really don't see nuclear as a part of that.
- Bolsonaro has been ousted in Brazil and afaik the feared election denial and violence there hasn’t happened.
- Inflation and interest rate prospects have ameliorated. Things maybe aren’t going to be quite as grim after all.
Tempting fate, so maybe a mis-post, but I do feel more sunnyside up than say a few weeks ago.
Buckfast sales in Scotland surged 40 per cent after Nicola Sturgeon introduced alcohol minimum pricing, according to an official analysis that prompted more warnings her flagship public health policy had backfired…
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/buckfast-sales-soar-in-scotland-as-nicola-sturgeon-s-alcohol-unit-pricing-backfires/ar-AA147BzM
No-one thinks the Tories can recover to that extent - but it is the case that during midterm voters only look at the government; come the election, they weigh up the opposition as a potential alternative. Few yet see either Labour’s team or its policy prospectus as particularly convincing.
Why would the LibDems not want to enter into a formal Coalition with Labour? They did with the Tories.
Scotland: led by a self-identified “real” feminist. Also where the colour purple is considered seditious.
A woman wearing a purple scarf is ejected from the Scottish parliament. Her crime? Being female it seems.
What has happened to my country?
https://twitter.com/DalgetySusan/status/1592512794083348486
They came back massively. There is a sizeable wedge of the Tory vote that likes to express its displeasure with how things are. Doesn't mean they like Labour - or indeed, will ultimately vote for them.
I see a huge Twitter-storm has erupted around it, with Woke anthropologists accusing him of white supremacism. WTAF
Most people (but not all, as pollsters know!) remember how they voted last time. Having made a decision it’s human nature to defend it - beyond the point at which a newcomer, objectively weighing the evidence, would come to the opposite conclusion. This basic aspect of human thinking acts as a brake on the number of people who are prepared to switch at the succeeding election, particularly if it follows soon after.
A Labour majority requires an exceptional number of people who backed the Tories last time to admit that they were wrong - and while many will, some won’t. For people who don’t follow politics particularly closely, an abstention may be an easier option than jumping straight to the opposing team. Hence a government just scrapes in can hope that a second election soon after will pull over that vital few extra supporters to get them more comfortably across the line.
Interestingly Deborah Mattinson identified this during the 2017 GE, that people hadn't paid attention to Corbyn and so were not as aware of his shortfalls as journalists/keener observers of politics were. Mattinson is currently Starmer's director of strategy and I believe their strategy is informed by the fact that the electorate rarely pay close attention to politics.
More shots of the consequences of Russian missiles hitting residential buildings in Kyiv.
The video was published by Kyrylo Tymoshenko
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1592515321273122816
Anyone with an ounce of non-Wokeness will shiver, and think No way. It will be a Woke ghetto and it will fail, as I have predicted
And 2020?
And 2019?
etc
Excited to see the new WoS-Albanians-PB Yoon coalition, sure to be an electoral smash I'm sure.
May not be the end of the world then. The wokists can have their own echo chamber and not bother anyone else. The supremacists can have their own echo chamber and not bother anyone else.
And everyone sane can have Twitter as tumbleweed where nothing happens as without the echo chamber and pointless trolling of each other that site has bugger all left to it.
As your regular posting here might indicate, sometimes it’s nice to be part of a community instead of a speck on the windshield of an SV social media company.
Leon has been Kari’s cheerleader on here for many months - bopping about with his “Give me a K!”, etc - even claiming to have tipped her as first female US President before she was spotted by the American media - and he made his contrary post simply to hedge his bets once it started to look as if the curse of his support had maybe soiled her bed.
Truly, one can’t blame Kari for thinking that her election win has been stolen from her.
She will never have heard of the Curse of Leondamus, nor seen the shadow of the Jonah fall across her land when he arrived in her state, last month.
She might have felt a brief, cold, dreadful shiver down her spine, as Frodo did when the Dark Riders were close.
But, suddenly, her expected win has disappeared. And an American, faced with the unexpected, only has two potential explanations - a deep state conspiracy, or aliens.
And even Kari isn’t so loopy as to blame her defeat on aliens!
Edit: ceretainly compared to white ciders and similar bulk paintbrush cleaners.
Are you trying to make me feel guilty for being a bit mean to you last night? If so, apologies. I was possibly a little surly