Have not yet been able to make a conclusive ID of the debris found at the site in Poland.
At this time though, I would not rule out a Ukrainian S-300 malfunctioning. This piece of debris does look similar to end of the rocket engine. twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/…
If this is a mistake, and if Russia can convince NATO it is a mistake, it will suit everyone to pretend it didn’t happen
Big ifs, tho
'The war never happened Vimes,' said Vetinari. 'It was all a - misunderstanding.'
'Misunderstanding? People died!' said Vimes.
'Quite so,' replied Vetinari. 'And that suggests, does it not, that we should try to understand one another as much as possible?'
That book should be on the national curriculum.
“I’m bought and sold, aren’t I?” said Vimes, shaking his head. “Bought and sold.” “Not at all,” said Vetinari.
“Yes, I am. We all are. Even Rust. And all those poor buggers who went off to get slaughtered. We’re not part of the big picture, right? We’re just bought and sold.”
Vetinari was suddenly in front of Vimes, his chair hitting the floor behind his desk.
“Really? Men marched away, Vimes. And men marched back. How glorious the battles would have been that they never had to fight!”
He hesitated, and then shrugged.
“And you say bought and sold? All right. But not, I think, needlessly spent.”
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Alternatively, people can react to breaking news
and not be required to be experts in international military relations, and thus risk making fools of
themselves with either over or under reaction.
When you have got ‘JosiasJessop’ - The Man on the Internet - pontificating about military strategy, it’s time to go elsewhere for a few hours.
Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov claims that Poland started World War II due to its "arrogance and self-confidence" and warns that Poland could now start World War III for the same reasons
When you regard asserting a right to exist with arrogant provocation that makes total sense. To a lunatic.
Although, Markov claims that Poland’s Russophobia prevented the Soviet Army from exerting full control and gave Nazi Germany an opening to invade Poland
Well, it's only slightly more ridiculous than some other claims of Russophobia I've seen.
Where do you think the Ukraine/Republic of China border should be?
Come off it, you were bored to tears a couple of nights back.
Somewhere out there is a lonely PB-er in a turf rooted house trying to work out how nuclear annihilation is ‘a positive for the cause of Scottish independence’
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Alternatively, people can react to breaking news
and not be required to be experts in international military relations, and thus risk making fools of
themselves with either over or under reaction.
When you have got ‘JosiasJessop’ - The Man on the Internet - pontificating about military strategy, it’s time to go elsewhere for a few hours.
We're all people on the internet. No one has the experience to weigh in on these global situations, not even those who have served some time in the military, unless every grunt in the army is an expert on geo-politics or is the reincarnation of Bismark.
Come off it, you were bored to tears a couple of nights back.
Somewhere out there is a lonely PB-er in a turf rooted house trying to work out how nuclear annihilation is ‘a positive for the cause of Scottish independence’
"If everyone is dead, surely that means the generation has been and gone?"
Of course, there is one thing that NATO could do that might just seriously fuck up Putin's war and at the same time possibly do some good on another level.
They could attack Iran.
I don't think they will, but it's possible it would (a) cut off the supply of drones and (b) might just destabilise the government long enough for the protests to take effect.
Isn't this literally how nuclear war starts in Threads?
Of course, there is one thing that NATO could do that might just seriously fuck up Putin's war and at the same time possibly do some good on another level.
They could attack Iran.
I don't think they will, but it's possible it would (a) cut off the supply of drones and (b) might just destabilise the government long enough for the protests to take effect.
Isn't this literally how nuclear war starts in Threads?
By the way, who won in Threads?
The traffic warden got a fairly significant promotion (and a gun) The rat seller seemed to do alright
By and large though, it looks like a strange game where the only winning move is not to play.
Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov claims that Poland started World War II due to its "arrogance and self-confidence" and warns that Poland could now start World War III for the same reasons
You know, if we want to stop this war the key thing is to find the sabotage where somebody has put LSD in the vodka supplied to the Kremlin.
I mean, a joke's a joke but this is going waaaaaay too far now.
There is a strange tendency in history for the madly bellicose to project (at least in diplomacy) onto others.
Consider WWI. France *retreated* from their frontier to their fortified lines inside France. Germany attacked through neutral Belgium. the Germans claimed that it was a wicked plot by the French and Belgians to destroy Germany. By not attacking Germany.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
Have not yet been able to make a conclusive ID of the debris found at the site in Poland.
At this time though, I would not rule out a Ukrainian S-300 malfunctioning. This piece of debris does look similar to end of the rocket engine. twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/…
If this is a mistake, and if Russia can convince NATO it is a mistake, it will suit everyone to pretend it didn’t happen
Big ifs, tho
Not everyone. It will suit those who want WW3 for that not to happen, and also for there to be other events, pebbles in the pond, stones on the go board.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Alternatively, people can react to breaking news
and not be required to be experts in international military relations, and thus risk making fools of
themselves with either over or under reaction.
When you have got ‘JosiasJessop’ - The Man on the Internet - pontificating about military strategy, it’s time to go elsewhere for a few hours.
We're all people on the internet. No one has the experience to weigh in on these global situations, not even those who have served some time in the military, unless every grunt in the army is an expert on geo-politics or is the reincarnation of Bismark.
In any case, its no different to the range of baloney offered on every other subject from politics to bake off
Of course, there is one thing that NATO could do that might just seriously fuck up Putin's war and at the same time possibly do some good on another level.
They could attack Iran.
I don't think they will, but it's possible it would (a) cut off the supply of drones and (b) might just destabilise the government long enough for the protests to take effect.
Isn't this literally how nuclear war starts in Threads?
Alaska Public Media - Officials to update Alaska election results on Tuesday
Alaska election officials plan to publish another update to the state’s unofficial election results late Tuesday afternoon.
Last Thursday, they finished tallying first place votes from regular ballots cast in person on Election Day. The 217,835 ballots counted so far also include some early vote and absentee ballots.
That represents about 36% of all registered voters. Turnout in the last midterm election in 2018 was about 50%.
The Alaska Division of Elections has tens of thousands of ballots waiting to be counted, with potentially thousands more on their way in the mail. Most absentee ballots sent by mail are valid if they were postmarked by Election Day and received by Nov. 18. Absentee ballots coming from overseas have until Nov. 23 to arrive.
Nov. 23 is also the date of the ranked choice tabulation process, which should settle races where no candidate has a majority of first place votes. That includes Alaska’s U.S. House and U.S. Senate races. In the Senate race, Republican Kelly Tshibaka leads incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski by 2,933 first-pick votes.
In the House, incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola is a few percentage points short of winning outright with a majority. Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich split about half of the overall first-pick votes.
In the governor’s race, Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy has about 52% of the vote so far. If that holds, he’ll win outright.
State officials are aiming to certify the election results on Nov. 29.
If Russia has struck Poland then Poland absolutely has the right to Invoke Article 5 of NATO.
(Snip)
There will be (must?) be very specific rules and situations under which Article 5 can be invoked. I've no idea what they are, but I can imagine this sort of situation would *not* give them the right - at least until the attack can be proved deliberate.
As someone elsewhere states: might this just have been an ill-timed grain powder explosion if it was a silo? (yes, that's unlikely, especially as a piccie shows something claiming to be part of a missile (*), and the fact there were allegedly two explosions).
If they were Russian missiles, I expect Poland to react in a manner that does not invoke Art. 5. But I may be wrong...
(*) I don't know if it is.
Invoking Article 5 is ultimately a political decision. That's why the US was able to invoke Article 5 after 9/11, even though terrorism wasn't in mind when the NATO treaty was written.
The Russian missile screw-up that ended up killing two Poles will result in NATO invoking article 4 not article 5 (see below). The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1592598256512798720
It's not NATO that invokes A5. Poland and every other member state can invoke A5 whenever they want. Poland already has some influence. Of course they have to be sure they're going to be believed if they say they've been attacked.
Hmmm. Possible NATO/Ukraine mistake? Presume every spook in the world is trying to work out what happened.
Option 1) US/UK etc move a few more battalions to Poland/Estonia Option 2) Guarantee security for everything west of the Kyiv/Odesa line Option 3) Block all Russian merchant vessels, or any bound to Russia, from going through the Channel?
Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.
“Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.
Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.
Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.
If Russia has struck Poland then Poland absolutely has the right to Invoke Article 5 of NATO.
(Snip)
There will be (must?) be very specific rules and situations under which Article 5 can be invoked. I've no idea what they are, but I can imagine this sort of situation would *not* give them the right - at least until the attack can be proved deliberate.
As someone elsewhere states: might this just have been an ill-timed grain powder explosion if it was a silo? (yes, that's unlikely, especially as a piccie shows something claiming to be part of a missile (*), and the fact there were allegedly two explosions).
If they were Russian missiles, I expect Poland to react in a manner that does not invoke Art. 5. But I may be wrong...
(*) I don't know if it is.
Invoking Article 5 is ultimately a political decision. That's why the US was able to invoke Article 5 after 9/11, even though terrorism wasn't in mind when the NATO treaty was written.
The Russian missile screw-up that ended up killing two Poles will result in NATO invoking article 4 not article 5 (see below). The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1592598256512798720
Indeed I think the retaliation has already happened, deep within the synapses of NATO member governments.
Putin’s last hope for a positive ending in Ukraine is for Western resolve to waver, either through boredom (Ukraine fatigue), economic pain (gas supplies) or division (Republic red wave in the mid terms).
Last week put paid to the red wave. A rapid European transition to LNG, reduced demand and warm windy weather have blunted the economic blackmail. These missiles just ensured we don’t get bored anytime soon.
Hmmm. Possible NATO/Ukraine mistake? Presume every spook in the world is trying to work out what happened.
Option 1) US/UK etc move a few more battalions to Poland/Estonia Option 2) Guarantee security for everything west of the Kyiv/Odesa line Option 3) Block all Russian merchant vessels, or any bound to Russia, from going through the Channel?
3 is not an option. International rights of passage.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
My working assumption is that this is Russia willy-waving for domestic consumption to cover the humiliation of it losing Kherson.
Or it might just be a screw up.
Still requires a response though.
All the news channels are adamant that it's a mistake.
Yes, and it still requires a response.
That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov claims that Poland started World War II due to its "arrogance and self-confidence" and warns that Poland could now start World War III for the same reasons
When you regard asserting a right to exist with arrogant provocation that makes total sense. To a lunatic.
Although, Markov claims that Poland’s Russophobia prevented the Soviet Army from exerting full control and gave Nazi Germany an opening to invade Poland
Well, it's only slightly more ridiculous than some other claims of Russophobia I've seen.
Where do you think the Ukraine/Republic of China border should be?
Hmmm. Possible NATO/Ukraine mistake? Presume every spook in the world is trying to work out what happened.
Option 1) US/UK etc move a few more battalions to Poland/Estonia Option 2) Guarantee security for everything west of the Kyiv/Odesa line Option 3) Block all Russian merchant vessels, or any bound to Russia, from going through the Channel?
3 is not an option. International rights of passage.
Launching cruise missiles at people isn't entirely above board either.
The Autumn Statement will be one of the most crucial budgets ever delivered. Rishi and Jeremy have in their hands the opportunity to rescue the Uk economy from poor performance and recession if they wish, or they can accept the depressing official advice and double down with austerity. Tax rises and the wrong spending cuts now will turn a downturn into a nasty and long recession. This will lead to job losses, struggling businesses and a bigger state deficit.
Their challenge should be to put forward a budget and plan for growth as Liz Truss proposed, but one with forecasts, numbers and sensible controls over spending and borrowing which in his haste Kwasi left out. This is important for the whole country, and for MPs’ constituents. It is also important for the Conservative party whose reputation for economic competence hinges on it.
Over the last fifty years we have seen Labour lose badly on two occasions and Conservatives lose twice, once badly, thanks to presiding over recessions
Edward Heath presided over the 1973-4 recession. His 1970-2 policies of competition and credit control were inflationary leading to a borrowing binge . The inflation was worsened by the energy crisis when OPEC hiked the oil price. He tightened too much in response and lost the 1974 election.
Harold Wilson lost control of the economy in 1974-5, created a recession and left office. Labour lost the next election under his successor.
John Major on official advice put us into the Exchange rate Mechanism. As I warned it took us through a very predictable violent boom/bust cycle with a five quarter recession. This led to a huge defeat in 1997 which took the Conservatives 13 years to recover from.
Gordon Brown created his own disaster, leading and encouraging the wrong official advice. He put us through a banking and credit boom, only to collapse it too fast through severe policy. The five quarter recession took the economy down by more than 6% . Labour have still not won an election in the 12 years that followed, with their reputation for economics in tatters.
So he thinks we can abolish boom and bust.
So you support an Austerity budget this week, on grounds there’s a sixty billion black hole to fill?
There is no need for austerity, the £60bn could be raised through taxes on the wealthy.
Austerity for the Rich has to at least be in the mix surely. They can't pull the same stunt as last time.
Depends on your definition of austerity I guess.
What would you envisage as austerity for the rich'? Sounds like tax rises by another name to me.
Is what I mean, yes. I also agree with you about a Wealth Tax. That has to happen fairly soon imo. Probably under Labour. Maybe ease it in rather than big bang.
It seems to me a straight wealth tax is not feasible. No-one has yet been able to organise a workable inheritance tax that raises big money. Driving wealth overseas is not a great idea.
The area to look at is property and land. This has these great merits; you can't hide it, you can't take it abroad and much of it is massively undertaxed in relation to both value and CG, (especially in the south, as I live in the north, which of course should be exempt.)
Naturally all such taxes should start at a place a fair bit above the assets of whoever is speaking at the time.
To me a Wealth Tax is levying a (small %) charge on Wealth each year rather than only on death. The latter being specifically an Inheritance Tax - which we already have. So then the big question is what Wealth. And I agree that property must feature.
As for that last rather familiar sentiment, I'm going to have to nominate for the @Anabobazina list.
I agree that annual taxes are better than one off ones.
If it were up to me as a starting point I'd have something like:
0.25% land tax+ per month for all Property with an 80% discount if that Property is the owners primary residence.
100% surcharge for residential property owned by anyone non domiciled for taxation.
Potentially a separate rate for agriculture and commercial.
No exceptions or ways to evade the tax. Council Tax, Stamp Duty etc abolished.
3% pa property tax very high
Why is that high? Only if you're owning land you're not living in, you always have the option to actually live in the land, or sell it to someone else if you don't fancy paying the tax.
Or use the land productively in a way that earns that much as a return.
Bake Off has a lot to answer for: now all these competitive reality shows follow the same format. I was looking forward to Handmade: Britain’s Best Woodworker. I like woodwork.
But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.
I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.
My working assumption is that this is Russia willy-waving for domestic consumption to cover the humiliation of it losing Kherson.
Or it might just be a screw up.
Still requires a response though.
All the news channels are adamant that it's a mistake.
Yes, and it still requires a response.
That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
My working assumption is that this is Russia willy-waving for domestic consumption to cover the humiliation of it losing Kherson.
Or it might just be a screw up.
Still requires a response though.
All the news channels are adamant that it's a mistake.
Yes, and it still requires a response.
That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
If it is a Russian missile, then my guess is that the response will be something on the lines of extending the Polish air defence zone into Ukraine.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as
yourself, with your pathetic little list.
As you have said ‘passim’.
I don't think I've ever said that before. Still, it's good to know that you're allowed to use words on the verboten list...
Hmmm. Possible NATO/Ukraine mistake? Presume every spook in the world is trying to work out what happened.
Option 1) US/UK etc move a few more battalions to Poland/Estonia Option 2) Guarantee security for everything west of the Kyiv/Odesa line Option 3) Block all Russian merchant vessels, or any bound to Russia, from going through the Channel?
3 is not an option. International rights of passage.
Launching cruise missiles at people isn't entirely above board either.
Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov claims that Poland started World War II due to its "arrogance and self-confidence" and warns that Poland could now start World War III for the same reasons
When you regard asserting a right to exist with arrogant provocation that makes total sense. To a lunatic.
Although, Markov claims that Poland’s Russophobia prevented the Soviet Army from exerting full control and gave Nazi Germany an opening to invade Poland
Well, it's only slightly more ridiculous than some other claims of Russophobia I've seen.
Where do you think the Ukraine/Republic of China border should be?
Far away from me.
Well, it would be. Unless you live in Taiwan, of course..
@kinabalu I am pleased but in no position to crow about it.
Roughly, I lost £300 on the Senate and made £400 on the House, so up £100 overall. It would be higher but I traded out in the small hours this morning as I got an overdrawn warning from my bank!
Only bit I can take some credit for is that the price of 1.2 stuck around for far too long (it even went to 1.24 on a couple of occasions) when it was clear the Republicans were going to get at least 218 seats, and there was 2/1 available on them getting 220-229 seats (a big price that @Barnesian also spotted)
That's what got me out of the hole I'd dug for myself. Far from my finest hour.
Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.
“Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.
Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.
Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as
yourself, with your pathetic little list.
As you have said ‘passim’.
I don't think I've ever said that before. Still, it's
good to know that you're allowed to use words on the verboten list...
My working assumption is that this is Russia willy-waving for domestic consumption to cover the humiliation of it losing Kherson.
Or it might just be a screw up.
Still requires a response though.
All the news channels are adamant that it's a mistake.
Yes, and it still requires a response.
That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
We accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in 1999.
Bake Off has a lot to answer for: now all these competitive reality shows follow the same format. I was looking forward to Handmade: Britain’s Best Woodworker. I like woodwork.
But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.
I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.
I’ll be honest I rather enjoyed ‘wood off’ as it’s known at Tubbs Towers. Yes the format is essentially the same, but the woodworkers did some genuinely impressive work. They even managed to make sure the lesbian won, albeit she was the best woodworker too.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as
yourself, with your pathetic little list.
As you have said ‘passim’.
I don't think I've ever said that before. Still, it's
good to know that you're allowed to use words on the verboten list...
IANAM
I fear you might be wrong and that you are, in fact, a meringue.
Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.
“Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.
Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.
Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.
Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.
“Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.
Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.
Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.
Bake Off has a lot to answer for: now all these competitive reality shows follow the same format. I was looking forward to Handmade: Britain’s Best Woodworker. I like woodwork.
But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.
I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.
Yes in TV a successful format gets copied to the point of tedium.
Of course, there is one thing that NATO could do that might just seriously fuck up Putin's war and at the same time possibly do some good on another level.
They could attack Iran.
I don't think they will, but it's possible it would (a) cut off the supply of drones and (b) might just destabilise the government long enough for the protests to take effect.
Isn't this literally how nuclear war starts in Threads?
My working assumption is that this is Russia willy-waving for domestic consumption to cover the humiliation of it losing Kherson.
Or it might just be a screw up.
Still requires a response though.
All the news channels are adamant that it's a mistake.
Yes, and it still requires a response.
That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
We accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in 1999.
China understood it was a mistake.
Putin needs to reassure us it was a mistake.
There is also a massive contextual difference. Not just the nature of the conflict (we weren’t the aggressor) but also in that the Chinese embassy was actually inside Serbia. Poland it not inside Ukraine, and Russia is the invader.
Bake Off has a lot to answer for: now all these competitive reality shows follow the same format. I was looking forward to Handmade: Britain’s Best Woodworker. I like woodwork.
But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.
I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.
I’ll be honest I rather enjoyed ‘wood off’ as it’s known at Tubbs Towers. Yes the format is essentially the same, but the woodworkers did some genuinely impressive work. They even managed to make sure the lesbian won, albeit she was the best woodworker too.
Spoiler as I’m still on the semifinal! not that I really care.
I think the fact that the work is so good just underlines my point: a wasted opportunity to convey the skills and techniques to viewers in favour of cliched bantz and a tired format.
Of course, there is one thing that NATO could do that might just seriously fuck up Putin's war and at the same time possibly do some good on another level.
They could attack Iran.
I don't think they will, but it's possible it would (a) cut off the supply of drones and (b) might just destabilise the government long enough for the protests to take effect.
Isn't this literally how nuclear war starts in Threads?
In many peoples' minds, the Thatcherite governments of the early 80s cut taxes and that reduction in taxes led to economic growth and they therefore paid for themselves.
That is not what her government did. In fact, that is the very opposite of Thatcherism. That's Keynesianism - i.e. injecting demand into the economy via reduces taxes (albeit the Keynesians usually increased spending too).
The first thing that the Thatcher/Howe government did was to raise taxes to close the budget deficit. They did this by freezing personal allowances which significantly increased tax take. They also removed the prevailing double lock on pensions, and allowed them to just move up with inflation (rather than previously, the higher of inflation and wages.)
Raising taxes and cutting spending was considered madness. 364 economists wrote to the Times decrying its foolishness.
But it worked, and it worked because the core economic tenet of Thatcherism was that if you balanced your budget, you would have less inflation and lower interest rates, and therefore one would be able to cut taxes. Lower taxes were the consequence of holding spending down, and not frittering away money on interest payments.
I therefore find it extraordinary that some people think that the Truss government was enacting Thatcherite policies. On the contrary, it was the very opposite of Thatcherite. It wanted a return to the 60s and 70s where governments spent more and taxed less to stimulate the economy and hope it grew faster than the budget deficits. It resulted in persistently high inflation and economic growth that lagged peers.
People forget that the top rate of tax was 60% until 10 years into Thatcher's time in number 10, and the top rate of tax was 40% for about 99.5% of Blair and Brown's time in Downing Street.
Looking with perspective now on Thatcher’s Premiership set into everything around it and what we have today, she was really quite left wing. A recession with households squeezed, energy companies and banks doing well, she windfall taxed them, waving away their bleating about how unfair it was and would hurt investment with the argument if our households are squeezed, those doing very well can afford to help out, we are all in this together. That is a winning Conservative Party. The current polling mess and Starmergasm was Truss saying no, I will not do a windfall tax, I will defer tax rises so working households pay back the borrowing with tax and higher bills into the future instead.
Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.
“Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.
Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.
Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end day by day, depending on input.
The downward blip can disappear into a smooth upward one.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
Smart of the article to sucker me in with references to The Good Place though.
Ask not the Elves for advice since they will say both yes and no.
Actually it was 'go not to the Elves for counsel, as they will say both no and yes.'
I don't think the response really refuted it either, a very politician's response. Basically a convoluted way of saying 'shit if I know what to do'.
'Is it indeed?' laughed Gildor. 'Elves seldom give unguarded advice, for advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill.”
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
@kinabalu I am pleased but in no position to crow about it.
Roughly, I lost £300 on the Senate and made £400 on the House, so up £100 overall. It would be higher but I traded out in the small hours this morning as I got an overdrawn warning from my bank!
Only bit I can take some credit for is that the price of 1.2 stuck around for far too long (it even went to 1.24 on a couple of occasions) when it was clear the Republicans were going to get at least 218 seats, and there was 2/1 available on them getting 220-229 seats (a big price that @Barnesian also spotted)
That's what got me out of the hole I'd dug for myself. Far from my finest hour.
Hairy journey, safe landing. Yep there was some good betting punditry on here from some of the involved PBers inc those you mention.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
He told me to “fuck off” yesterday, which was rude, but refreshingly cliche-free plain English at least.
The Autumn Statement will be one of the most crucial budgets ever delivered. Rishi and Jeremy have in their hands the opportunity to rescue the Uk economy from poor performance and recession if they wish, or they can accept the depressing official advice and double down with austerity. Tax rises and the wrong spending cuts now will turn a downturn into a nasty and long recession. This will lead to job losses, struggling businesses and a bigger state deficit.
Their challenge should be to put forward a budget and plan for growth as Liz Truss proposed, but one with forecasts, numbers and sensible controls over spending and borrowing which in his haste Kwasi left out. This is important for the whole country, and for MPs’ constituents. It is also important for the Conservative party whose reputation for economic competence hinges on it.
Over the last fifty years we have seen Labour lose badly on two occasions and Conservatives lose twice, once badly, thanks to presiding over recessions
Edward Heath presided over the 1973-4 recession. His 1970-2 policies of competition and credit control were inflationary leading to a borrowing binge . The inflation was worsened by the energy crisis when OPEC hiked the oil price. He tightened too much in response and lost the 1974 election.
Harold Wilson lost control of the economy in 1974-5, created a recession and left office. Labour lost the next election under his successor.
John Major on official advice put us into the Exchange rate Mechanism. As I warned it took us through a very predictable violent boom/bust cycle with a five quarter recession. This led to a huge defeat in 1997 which took the Conservatives 13 years to recover from.
Gordon Brown created his own disaster, leading and encouraging the wrong official advice. He put us through a banking and credit boom, only to collapse it too fast through severe policy. The five quarter recession took the economy down by more than 6% . Labour have still not won an election in the 12 years that followed, with their reputation for economics in tatters.
So he thinks we can abolish boom and bust.
So you support an Austerity budget this week, on grounds there’s a sixty billion black hole to fill?
There is no need for austerity, the £60bn could be raised through taxes on the wealthy.
Austerity for the Rich has to at least be in the mix surely. They can't pull the same stunt as last time.
Depends on your definition of austerity I guess.
What would you envisage as austerity for the rich'? Sounds like tax rises by another name to me.
Is what I mean, yes. I also agree with you about a Wealth Tax. That has to happen fairly soon imo. Probably under Labour. Maybe ease it in rather than big bang.
It seems to me a straight wealth tax is not feasible. No-one has yet been able to organise a workable inheritance tax that raises big money. Driving wealth overseas is not a great idea.
The area to look at is property and land. This has these great merits; you can't hide it, you can't take it abroad and much of it is massively undertaxed in relation to both value and CG, (especially in the south, as I live in the north, which of course should be exempt.)
Naturally all such taxes should start at a place a fair bit above the assets of whoever is speaking at the time.
To me a Wealth Tax is levying a (small %) charge on Wealth each year rather than only on death. The latter being specifically an Inheritance Tax - which we already have. So then the big question is what Wealth. And I agree that property must feature.
As for that last rather familiar sentiment, I'm going to have to nominate for the @Anabobazina list.
I agree that annual taxes are better than one off ones.
If it were up to me as a starting point I'd have something like:
0.25% land tax+ per month for all Property with an 80% discount if that Property is the owners primary residence.
100% surcharge for residential property owned by anyone non domiciled for taxation.
Potentially a separate rate for agriculture and commercial.
No exceptions or ways to evade the tax. Council Tax, Stamp Duty etc abolished.
3% pa property tax very high
Why is that high? Only if you're owning land you're not living in, you always have the option to actually live in the land, or sell it to someone else if you don't fancy paying the tax.
Or use the land productively in a way that earns that much as a return.
If you are thinking about it as land (not building) value then that’s complicated but not as bad.
Average house price of £300k becomes basically a wash with council tax for a primary residence (300x0.03) = £9k x 20% = £1.8k vs £1.5k for average council tax.
So effectively it’s just a complicated tax on second homes which are already taxed.
Better to have a simple clear rate without discounts
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
Gavins Peak? 😆
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
But @Anabobazina 's posts in reply to mine below seemed a little rude in themselves. And his little list of forbidden words and phrases is a little fascistic.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
He told me to “fuck off” yesterday, which was rude, but refreshingly cliche-free plain English at least.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
He told me to “fuck off” yesterday, which was rude, but refreshingly cliche-free plain English at least.
You may want to consider why I said that to you. And it seems a shame that you did not take the well-meant advice.
Smart of the article to sucker me in with references to The Good Place though.
Ask not the Elves for advice since they will say both yes and no.
Actually it was 'go not to the Elves for counsel, as they will say both no and yes.'
I don't think the response really refuted it either, a very politician's response. Basically a convoluted way of saying 'shit if I know what to do'.
'Is it indeed?' laughed Gildor. 'Elves seldom give unguarded advice, for advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill.”
After the first 20,000 years of trying various choices, caution with advice is probably the sensible response.
Should I make some rings out of that nice shiny metal? Asking for a gift giving friend.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
Gavins Peak? 😆
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
That’s not an argument. It’s just a contradiction.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
Gavins Peak? 😆
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
That’s not an argument. It’s just a contradiction.
Only one year in and embroiled in a proper PB contradiction.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
It's hard to see how they don't do so now that they've reportedly suffered casualties from the conflict next door… … As a reminder: the one time NATO actually invoked Art 5 (after 9/11) it took almost a month to do so.
“Triggered” is not an accurate characterisation. All this stuff is pretty slow and deliberative. Intentionally so.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
The Autumn Statement will be one of the most crucial budgets ever delivered. Rishi and Jeremy have in their hands the opportunity to rescue the Uk economy from poor performance and recession if they wish, or they can accept the depressing official advice and double down with austerity. Tax rises and the wrong spending cuts now will turn a downturn into a nasty and long recession. This will lead to job losses, struggling businesses and a bigger state deficit.
Their challenge should be to put forward a budget and plan for growth as Liz Truss proposed, but one with forecasts, numbers and sensible controls over spending and borrowing which in his haste Kwasi left out. This is important for the whole country, and for MPs’ constituents. It is also important for the Conservative party whose reputation for economic competence hinges on it.
Over the last fifty years we have seen Labour lose badly on two occasions and Conservatives lose twice, once badly, thanks to presiding over recessions
Edward Heath presided over the 1973-4 recession. His 1970-2 policies of competition and credit control were inflationary leading to a borrowing binge . The inflation was worsened by the energy crisis when OPEC hiked the oil price. He tightened too much in response and lost the 1974 election.
Harold Wilson lost control of the economy in 1974-5, created a recession and left office. Labour lost the next election under his successor.
John Major on official advice put us into the Exchange rate Mechanism. As I warned it took us through a very predictable violent boom/bust cycle with a five quarter recession. This led to a huge defeat in 1997 which took the Conservatives 13 years to recover from.
Gordon Brown created his own disaster, leading and encouraging the wrong official advice. He put us through a banking and credit boom, only to collapse it too fast through severe policy. The five quarter recession took the economy down by more than 6% . Labour have still not won an election in the 12 years that followed, with their reputation for economics in tatters.
So he thinks we can abolish boom and bust.
So you support an Austerity budget this week, on grounds there’s a sixty billion black hole to fill?
There is no need for austerity, the £60bn could be raised through taxes on the wealthy.
Austerity for the Rich has to at least be in the mix surely. They can't pull the same stunt as last time.
Depends on your definition of austerity I guess.
What would you envisage as austerity for the rich'? Sounds like tax rises by another name to me.
Is what I mean, yes. I also agree with you about a Wealth Tax. That has to happen fairly soon imo. Probably under Labour. Maybe ease it in rather than big bang.
It seems to me a straight wealth tax is not feasible. No-one has yet been able to organise a workable inheritance tax that raises big money. Driving wealth overseas is not a great idea.
The area to look at is property and land. This has these great merits; you can't hide it, you can't take it abroad and much of it is massively undertaxed in relation to both value and CG, (especially in the south, as I live in the north, which of course should be exempt.)
Naturally all such taxes should start at a place a fair bit above the assets of whoever is speaking at the time.
To me a Wealth Tax is levying a (small %) charge on Wealth each year rather than only on death. The latter being specifically an Inheritance Tax - which we already have. So then the big question is what Wealth. And I agree that property must feature.
As for that last rather familiar sentiment, I'm going to have to nominate for the @Anabobazina list.
I agree that annual taxes are better than one off ones.
If it were up to me as a starting point I'd have something like:
0.25% land tax+ per month for all Property with an 80% discount if that Property is the owners primary residence.
100% surcharge for residential property owned by anyone non domiciled for taxation.
Potentially a separate rate for agriculture and commercial.
No exceptions or ways to evade the tax. Council Tax, Stamp Duty etc abolished.
3% pa property tax very high
Why is that high? Only if you're owning land you're not living in, you always have the option to actually live in the land, or sell it to someone else if you don't fancy paying the tax.
Or use the land productively in a way that earns that much as a return.
If you are thinking about it as land (not building) value then that’s complicated but not as bad.
Average house price of £300k becomes basically a wash with council tax for a primary residence (300x0.03) = £9k x 20% = £1.8k vs £1.5k for average council tax.
So effectively it’s just a complicated tax on second homes which are already taxed.
Better to have a simple clear rate without discounts
Might get those developers' land banks built on though.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
Gavins Peak? 😆
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
I've just tried it with a loess macro in Excel and I can't get rid of Gavin's peak without adding some crazy figures.
Even Kwasi couldn't help, and believe me he was keen to see any sign of Gavin disappear.
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Old but gold
“Not at all,” said Vetinari.
“Yes, I am. We all are. Even Rust. And all those poor buggers who went off to get slaughtered. We’re not part of the big picture, right? We’re just bought and sold.”
Vetinari was suddenly in front of Vimes, his chair hitting the floor behind his desk.
“Really? Men marched away, Vimes. And men marched back. How glorious the battles would have been that they never had to fight!”
He hesitated, and then shrugged.
“And you say bought and sold? All right. But not, I think, needlessly spent.”
Aggressors must not succeed.
Appeasement is treason.
Hmmm. Possible NATO/Ukraine mistake? Presume every spook in the world is trying to work out what happened.
I’m happy to do intel from Tierra del Fuego
The rat seller seemed to do alright
By and large though, it looks like a strange game where the only winning move is not to play.
Consider WWI. France *retreated* from their frontier to their fortified lines inside France. Germany attacked through neutral Belgium. the Germans claimed that it was a wicked plot by the French and Belgians to destroy Germany. By not attacking Germany.
You might inadvertently be completing a code sequence.
And we all know how that ends.
Alaska election officials plan to publish another update to the state’s unofficial election results late Tuesday afternoon.
Last Thursday, they finished tallying first place votes from regular ballots cast in person on Election Day. The 217,835 ballots counted so far also include some early vote and absentee ballots.
That represents about 36% of all registered voters. Turnout in the last midterm election in 2018 was about 50%.
The Alaska Division of Elections has tens of thousands of ballots waiting to be counted, with potentially thousands more on their way in the mail. Most absentee ballots sent by mail are valid if they were postmarked by Election Day and received by Nov. 18. Absentee ballots coming from overseas have until Nov. 23 to arrive.
Nov. 23 is also the date of the ranked choice tabulation process, which should settle races where no candidate has a majority of first place votes. That includes Alaska’s U.S. House and U.S. Senate races. In the Senate race, Republican Kelly Tshibaka leads incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski by 2,933 first-pick votes.
In the House, incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola is a few percentage points short of winning outright with a majority. Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich split about half of the overall first-pick votes.
In the governor’s race, Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy has about 52% of the vote so far. If that holds, he’ll win outright.
State officials are aiming to certify the election results on Nov. 29.
Option 2) Guarantee security for everything west of the Kyiv/Odesa line
Option 3) Block all Russian merchant vessels, or any bound to Russia, from going through the Channel?
Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.
“Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.
Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.
Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/lauren-boebert-live-republican-under-fire-for-embarrassing-tweet-as-she-leads-race-by-just-1-200-votes/ar-AA147fQU?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=4fa8081e46a04671886f20ff8538f010
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1592581972165267456
Sunak to GB News: “Right now, our number one challenge is getting a grip on the number of illegal migrants coming, that's the thing I want to focus on first."
Sunak to BBC: "The number one challenge we face is inflation."
Which is it?
Or it might just be a screw up.
Still requires a response though.
Putin’s last hope for a positive ending in
Ukraine is for Western resolve to waver, either through boredom (Ukraine fatigue), economic pain (gas supplies) or division (Republic red wave in the mid terms).
Last week put paid to the red wave. A rapid European transition to LNG, reduced demand and warm windy weather have blunted the economic blackmail. These missiles just ensured we don’t get bored anytime soon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/us/results
Your next identity on PB should be Lord Halifax.
Sunak to Daily Mail: The number one challenge is house prices. And stories about Princess Diana.
As you have said ‘passim’.
That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
I’ve got my trusty Armageddon Shot Glass ready to salute your bravery
Or use the land productively in a way that earns that much as a return.
But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.
I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.
Starboard
Roughly, I lost £300 on the Senate and made £400 on the House, so up £100 overall. It would be higher but I traded out in the small hours this morning as I got an overdrawn warning from my bank!
My analysis of the House was greatly aided by @rcs1000 and @Sean_F with a bit too from @Alasdair @kinabalu and @Barnesian on specific races.
Only bit I can take some credit for is that the price of 1.2 stuck around for far too long (it even went to 1.24 on a couple of occasions) when it was clear the Republicans were going to get at least 218 seats, and there was 2/1 available on them getting 220-229 seats (a big price that @Barnesian also spotted)
That's what got me out of the hole I'd dug for myself. Far from my finest hour.
https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1592493675992731648?cxt=HHwWgMDSifOj1pksAAAA
China understood it was a mistake.
Putin needs to reassure us it was a mistake.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJpQk6YAw1s
But only because he cheats…
Initiate Attack Plan R for Ripper
ENDS
Spoiler as I’m still on the semifinal! not that I really care.
I think the fact that the work is so good just underlines my point: a wasted opportunity to convey the skills and techniques to viewers in favour of cliched bantz and a tired format.
Why indecision makes you smarter
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20221111-why-indecision-makes-you-smarter
Smart of the article to sucker me in with references to The Good Place though.
The downward blip can disappear into a smooth upward one.
'Is it indeed?' laughed Gildor. 'Elves seldom give unguarded advice, for advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill.”
Way before my time obviously, but is it true they had big ears?
Until Noddy paid the ransom 😆
I’m here all week.
But if they're all like that, I hope that you have six of them and they remain the Secret Seven.
He told me to “fuck off” yesterday, which was rude, but refreshingly cliche-free plain English at least.
Average house price of £300k becomes basically a wash with council tax for a primary residence (300x0.03) = £9k x 20% = £1.8k vs £1.5k for average council tax.
So effectively it’s just a complicated tax on second homes which are already taxed.
Better to have a simple clear rate without discounts
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
But @Anabobazina 's posts in reply to mine below seemed a little rude in themselves. And his little list of forbidden words and phrases is a little fascistic.
Should I make some rings out of that nice shiny metal? Asking for a gift giving friend.
Unless there is a rule change of which I’m unaware, they aren’t forbidden. They are, however, cliches
Poland (and other Eastern European NATO members) invoked Art 4 last February following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
It's hard to see how they don't do so now that they've reportedly suffered casualties from the conflict next door…
… As a reminder: the one time NATO actually invoked Art 5 (after 9/11) it took almost a month to do so.
“Triggered” is not an accurate characterisation.
All this stuff is pretty slow and deliberative. Intentionally so.
Even Kwasi couldn't help, and believe me he was keen to see any sign of Gavin disappear.