Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
Gavins Peak? 😆
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
I've just tried it with a loess macro in Excel and I can't get rid of Gavin's peak without adding some crazy figures.
Even Kwasi couldn't help, and believe me he was keen to see any sign of Gavin disappear.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
If Russia has struck Poland then Poland absolutely has the right to Invoke Article 5 of NATO.
Russia can always choose to stop striking at other countries and pull back to its own, internationally recognised borders.
They probably have the right, but I doubt even now there is NATO support to go in fully on the basis of this. But reaction is surely required in this situation, so what could it be?
NFZ over Ukraine, increased Black sea presence
As @Dura_Ace has consistently pointed out, a NFZ would require NATO to bomb targets inside Russia. That's WWIII in 48 hours. They wouldn't do it short of Russia using nukes.
Can't see how they have a greater 'presence' in the Black Sea either given the restrictions on travel through the Bosporus.
There's already an effective NFZ over eastern Ukraine and the disputed oblasts due to the vast amount of SAM systems that have proliferated. Russia and Ukraine are doing a very small number of aviation operations above 100'.
One element of Russian technology that has worked well in the SMO are the S-300/S-400 and other SAM systems. Both sides have used them very effectively to deny the airspace above a very low level.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
If Russia has struck Poland then Poland absolutely has the right to Invoke Article 5 of NATO.
Russia can always choose to stop striking at other countries and pull back to its own, internationally recognised borders.
They probably have the right, but I doubt even now there is NATO support to go in fully on the basis of this. But reaction is surely required in this situation, so what could it be?
NFZ over Ukraine, increased Black sea presence
As @Dura_Ace has consistently pointed out, a NFZ would require NATO to bomb targets inside Russia. That's WWIII in 48 hours. They wouldn't do it short of Russia using nukes.
Can't see how they have a greater 'presence' in the Black Sea either given the restrictions on travel through the Bosporus.
There's already an effective NFZ over eastern Ukraine and the disputed oblasts due to the vast amount of SAM systems that have proliferated. Russia and Ukraine are doing a very small number of aviation operations above 100'.
One element of Russian technology that has worked well in the SMO are the S-300/S-400 and other SAM systems. Both sides have used them very effectively to deny the airspace above a very low level.
Justin Bronk did an interesting interview recently on this. It posits something a little worrying for those of us who do not want Ukraine to lose: their situation with their air force and air defence is poor atm, and will get poorer as supplies run out. And if they fail, then Russian aviation will have a massive advantage.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
below seemed a little rude in themselves. And his little list of forbidden words and phrases is a little fascistic.
Unless there is a rule change of which I’m unaware, they aren’t forbidden. They are, however, cliches
Then why create your increasingly pathetic list then, and keep on spamming it on here? Who made you PB's cliché police?
I think you might need to lighten up a little. When I sent you to Tory Home’s lizard fanciers’ forum, did you not enjoy it?
LOL. You came on here this evening and just straight-out picked a fight with me, in quite a pathetic manner.
You sent me to "Tory Home’s lizard fanciers’ forum" ? Can't remember that. But firstly, I'm not a Tory. Secondly, I'm neither fond nor a hater of lizards. Thirdly, 'sending people' somewhere is a little cliched. You should add it to your little list - and never post it on here again.
Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.
“Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.
Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.
Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.
I saw that there was a Taiwan Constitutional Referendum coming up in a couple of weeks and got terribly excited by what huge matter of significance might be occuring in such a flashpoint region.
Turns out it is just about lowering the voting age.
Sunak has the same problem as Truss had, only more so.
He was born in 1980, and was still in primary school when la Thatch left office. He knows the Thatcher myth much more than the Thatcher reality.
God knows what Redwood's excuse is.
Redwood's blog, which seems to have affected you quite badly, doesn't mention Thatcher at all.
As everyone is still gnawing on the content of part one, here's the second bit:
... It was a pity Boris did not use the advice he was offered to cut out the money creation and bond buying and tighten money policy last year to keep inflation down. We have more inflation now than we needed. Japan and China remind us with their low inflation rates it was not all caused by oil and gas prices. It was a tragedy Liz did not present a rounded and costed Growth Plan within an economic framework that would have worked as some proposed. These mistakes must not lead the new team to conclude they must impose more austerity. The prime task today is fighting recession. Inflation will come down rapidly next year thanks to the monetary stringency now being applied. The Bank itself sees inflation down to 2% in a couple of years time.
If government accepts all the OBR and Bank advice to tighten too much into a downturn it will be bad economics and worse politics. We will end up with a deeper and longer downturn than we need, and with a bigger deficit than if we had been more willing to offset some of the recessionary forces. You cannot tax your way into growth and recovery. A fractious and unhappy party is in no mood for tax rises nor for spending cuts that harm individual incomes and front line services in health, law and order and education.
Of course there is a need to rein in wasteful and less essential public spending. In recent years the purse strings have been loosened across a very wide field. The Chancellor should stop the Bank of England taking losses on bonds. There is no need to do this. This will produce an immediate saving of £11bn this year. This has always been a joint control policy where the Bank needs the Chancellor’s approval.
Smart of the article to sucker me in with references to The Good Place though.
Ask not the Elves for advice since they will say both yes and no.
Actually it was 'go not to the Elves for counsel, as they will say both no and yes.'
I don't think the response really refuted it either, a very politician's response. Basically a convoluted way of saying 'shit if I know what to do'.
'Is it indeed?' laughed Gildor. 'Elves seldom give unguarded advice, for advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill.”
After the first 20,000 years of trying various choices, caution with advice is probably the sensible response.
Should I make some rings out of that nice shiny metal? Asking for a gift giving friend.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
Gavins Peak? 😆
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
That’s not an argument. It’s just a contradiction.
Only one year in and embroiled in a proper PB contradiction.
Nope. The electorate have decided they want rid of the Tories. That means voting Labour in England and Wales and SNP in Scotland. The Lib Dems are surplus to requirements.
Lib dems are not surplus in the South of England, Often they will be the best vote to oust a Tory.
Nope.
Rest of South Lab 47% Con 32% LD 9% Grn 8% Ref 3% UKIP 2%
(Deltapoll; Fieldwork 10-14 November)
You should know better that averages obscure wide variation in individual constituencies. There is no way the labour candidate wins my seat, but the Lib Dem might.
In general I do agree, the same reason LDs came from third to win some by-elections, but it is surprising to me that the LDs have not regained second in many south west seats, including yours. So while at local level they still don't place at all, I do wonder on current polling if they might snatch a few, if not as many as the top level might suggest.
(No, I don't really expect sporting institutions to have insight one way or another)
Shashank Joshi This epitomises the simplistic idea that ceasefires are neutral and always an unambiguous good. They’re not. It depends on the conflict and its particular phase. A temporary pause at this moment in Ukraine would benefit Russia more than Ukraine.
@Channel4News "My plea to all of you is to think on a temporary ceasefire for one month, for the duration of the World Cup."
The frontrunner in Taipei for Mayor is Chang Kai Shek's grandson. Shows that, even 30 years after democracy, the pull of the old is strong. It's odd, in that nationalist parties (like his KMT) don't normally do well in capital cities.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
below seemed a little rude in themselves. And his little list of forbidden words and phrases is a little fascistic.
Unless there is a rule change of which I’m unaware, they aren’t forbidden. They are, however, cliches
Then why create your increasingly pathetic list then, and keep on spamming it on here? Who made you PB's cliché police?
I think you might need to lighten up a little. When I sent you to Tory Home’s lizard fanciers’ forum, did you not enjoy it?
LOL. You came on here this evening and just straight-out picked a fight with me, in quite a pathetic manner.
You sent me to "Tory Home’s lizard fanciers’ forum" ? Can't remember that. But firstly, I'm not a Tory. Secondly, I'm neither fond nor a hater of lizards. Thirdly, 'sending people' somewhere is a little cliched. You should add it to your little list - and never post it on here again.
Hmm, difficult decision as to how to respond to the missile killing two in Poland.
I don't think it's reasonable to assume it was an accident. But equally hard to prove it was deliberate.
A response is needed and quickly. One that is a meaningful increase in support for Ukraine but not direct intervention, I think. Improved offensive weaponry seems the obvious option.
Here's my hot take on a possible response:
Poland (and possibly other NATO nations) call a no-fly zone over western, northern and southwestern Ukraine, tasked to shoot down missiles and, if possible, drones. Russia are now flying virtually no sorties outside their occupied areas due to Ukrainian air defences, so the risks of conflict between NATO and Russian aircraft would be minimal. It would also help Ukraine immensely. A buffer area of (say) 100 miles could be left between the front lines and the patrol areas.
It would be risky, but Russia have given them an excuse.
FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list.
A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.
The frontrunner in Taipei for Mayor is Chang Kai Shek's grandson. Shows that, even 30 years after democracy, the pull of the old is strong. It's odd, in that nationalist parties (like his KMT) don't normally do well in capital cities.
The other main Party is Nationalist too. One has its roots in One China Nationalism.(In a expelling colonial overlords and local warlords sense).The other in Taiwanese Nationalism. But it's a darn sight more complex than just that.
Sunak to BBC: "The number one challenge we face is inflation."
Which is it?
'Getting a grip' is a phrase that I would plan all elected politicians and Government appointees from using if I was PM. Along with any derivations of 'tough' or 'toughness' and 'tackling'. They are meaningless.
I would like polticians to say 'We will implement x change within x months and we aim to reduce the number of illegal immigrants from x to x by x. Otherwise piss off.
Bake Off has a lot to answer for: now all these competitive reality shows follow the same format. I was looking forward to Handmade: Britain’s Best Woodworker. I like woodwork.
But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.
I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.
Give this one a try - emphasis on the making and just enough re: personalities.
The frontrunner in Taipei for Mayor is Chang Kai Shek's grandson. Shows that, even 30 years after democracy, the pull of the old is strong. It's odd, in that nationalist parties (like his KMT) don't normally do well in capital cities.
The other main Party is Nationalist too. One has its roots in One China Nationalism. The other in Taiwanese Nationalism. But it's a darn sight more complex than just that.
I don't doubt it: my comment was based on the fact that all my middle class english-speaking Taipei-dwelling friends are DPP supporters so, like London, I assumed the city majority was like that. Mind you, they all live in New Taipei City for housing-bubble reasons, so they are all under the KMT anyway.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.
“Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.
Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.
Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.
Hence my surprise. I thought it was something like 99% reported, can't see a recount overturning 1000+ votes.
Dems claim there are a large number of cured ballots favouring them still to count/add
Well it would be funny to see yet another election-denier lose against the trend.
Particularly if it is due to cured ballots. She will go apoplectic. Why should the Dems have much more to cure?
Cured ballots, esp. in swing districts, will go both ways. With some demographic skews, with older voters & newer voters, for example, being bit more likely to mess up somehow.
My guess is that Boebart will indeed get re-elected when all is said & done. NOT that I wish her well!
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Substituted for what?
Standard sized Twirls. So we’re going to be arguing over who gets a proper Twirl. Disgrace.
'Getting a grip' is a phrase that I would plan all elected politicians and Government appointees from using if I was PM. Along with any derivations of 'tough' or 'toughness' and 'tackling'. They are meaningless.
I would like polticians to say 'We will implement x change within x months and we aim to reduce the number of illegal immigrants from x to x by x. Otherwise piss off.
Tough on cliches, tough on the causes of cliches ?
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
I’d go so far as to say it’s our number one priority
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
Proper sized Mars Bars in them days too. None of this modern woke rubbish.
If Russia has struck Poland then Poland absolutely has the right to Invoke Article 5 of NATO.
Russia can always choose to stop striking at other countries and pull back to its own, internationally recognised borders.
They probably have the right, but I doubt even now there is NATO support to go in fully on the basis of this. But reaction is surely required in this situation, so what could it be?
NFZ over Ukraine, increased Black sea presence
As @Dura_Ace has consistently pointed out, a NFZ would require NATO to bomb targets inside Russia. That's WWIII in 48 hours. They wouldn't do it short of Russia using nukes.
Can't see how they have a greater 'presence' in the Black Sea either given the restrictions on travel through the Bosporus.
There's already an effective NFZ over eastern Ukraine and the disputed oblasts due to the vast amount of SAM systems that have proliferated. Russia and Ukraine are doing a very small number of aviation operations above 100'.
One element of Russian technology that has worked well in the SMO are the S-300/S-400 and other SAM systems. Both sides have used them very effectively to deny the airspace above a very low level.
Do the Russians have no equivalent of the HARM missiles?
The idea that Russia deliberately targeted a grain silo in Poland is ridiculous. Clearly this was an accident either from Russian targeting or Ukrainian anti missile defences. Hopefully despite public statements both sides are using back channels to communicate that fact to each other this evening.
By way of distraction, some names to consider as alternatives to both Trump and DeSantis for the Republican nomination. This is going to be a huge and liquid market, and doesn’t have quite the same problems for punters as the Democrat one (Biden running/not running), since Trump’s partial collapse.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/15/trump-problem-republicans-desantis-00067030 … It should also be noted that DeSantis isn’t the only popular incumbent who ran a good race, and Florida isn’t a state where the GOP particularly needs a home-field advantage. Mike DeWine in Ohio, Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and Glenn Youngkin in Virginia all are Republican governors without Trumpist baggage in key states. In fact, DeWine outran incoming Sen. J.D. Vance in Ohio by 19 points, and Sununu outperformed Trump-backed Senate candidate Don Bolduc by nearly 25 points; DeSantis ran ahead of Sen. Marco Rubio by just 3 points.…
Note also the fairly secure (for now) Republican status of Florida rather weakens the argument for them to pick a Florida candidate.
The idea that Russia deliberately targeted a grain silo in Poland is ridiculous. Clearly this was an accident either from Russian targeting or Ukrainian anti missile defences. Hopefully despite public statements both sides are using back channels to communicate that fact to each other this evening.
I don't think anyone disagrees with you.
The problem is that the Poles can't just let that happen and shrug.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
My dander did rise when I read that. But it seems Cadbury's are trying their best. They're including a couple of full size twirls. Not ideal, but a reasonably honourable substitution. Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong. But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
The idea that Russia deliberately targeted a grain silo in Poland is ridiculous. Clearly this was an accident either from Russian targeting or Ukrainian anti missile defences. Hopefully despite public statements both sides are using back channels to communicate that fact to each other this evening.
I don't think anyone disagrees with you.
The problem is that the Poles can't just let that happen and shrug.
We shrugged at Russia deliberately using a nerve agent on our soil to kill a couple of people. Not saying they should but I’m saying in context they might.
If Russia has struck Poland then Poland absolutely has the right to Invoke Article 5 of NATO.
Russia can always choose to stop striking at other countries and pull back to its own, internationally recognised borders.
They probably have the right, but I doubt even now there is NATO support to go in fully on the basis of this. But reaction is surely required in this situation, so what could it be?
NFZ over Ukraine, increased Black sea presence
As @Dura_Ace has consistently pointed out, a NFZ would require NATO to bomb targets inside Russia. That's WWIII in 48 hours. They wouldn't do it short of Russia using nukes.
Can't see how they have a greater 'presence' in the Black Sea either given the restrictions on travel through the Bosporus.
There's already an effective NFZ over eastern Ukraine and the disputed oblasts due to the vast amount of SAM systems that have proliferated. Russia and Ukraine are doing a very small number of aviation operations above 100'.
One element of Russian technology that has worked well in the SMO are the S-300/S-400 and other SAM systems. Both sides have used them very effectively to deny the airspace above a very low level.
Do the Russians have no equivalent of the HARM missiles?
Yes. Just not as effective.
And for some reason they’ve made no really concerted SEAD effort
The idea that Russia deliberately targeted a grain silo in Poland is ridiculous. Clearly this was an accident either from Russian targeting or Ukrainian anti missile defences. Hopefully despite public statements both sides are using back channels to communicate that fact to each other this evening.
I don't think anyone disagrees with you.
The problem is that the Poles can't just let that happen and shrug.
A few years ago I read about the diplomatic efforts the USA and UK engaged in 1991 to stop Israel attacking Iraq after Iraq started firing Scuds at Israel.
In short the Israelis were told to look at the bigger picture.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
Might have been for the best. The MoD had a habit of buying cheap stuff like old Mars Bars made for the Shah of Iran in the 1970s and never delivered because Khomeini & Co.
"Originally produced as part of a contract for the Shah of Iran in the late 1970s, these Mars Bars were never delivered and, instead, made their way into Compo 24 hour packs where they were to be found well into the early 90s, by which time they had developed an outer layer of fine white powder."
The idea that Russia deliberately targeted a grain silo in Poland is ridiculous. Clearly this was an accident either from Russian targeting or Ukrainian anti missile defences. Hopefully despite public statements both sides are using back channels to communicate that fact to each other this evening.
I don't think anyone disagrees with you.
The problem is that the Poles can't just let that happen and shrug.
We shrugged at Russia deliberately using a nerve agent on our soil to kill a couple of people. Not saying they should but I’m saying in context they might.
Benefit of hindsight, but I still can't believe we didn't make more a fuss over that. I suppose if Dawn Sturgess had died at the time it would've carried more momentum and consequence.
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
Gavins Peak? 😆
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
That’s not an argument. It’s just a contradiction.
Only one year in and embroiled in a proper PB contradiction.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
I think David Flynn (ex-marine) said that everyone was
If Russia has struck Poland then Poland absolutely has the right to Invoke Article 5 of NATO.
Russia can always choose to stop striking at other countries and pull back to its own, internationally recognised borders.
They probably have the right, but I doubt even now there is NATO support to go in fully on the basis of this. But reaction is surely required in this situation, so what could it be?
NFZ over Ukraine, increased Black sea presence
As @Dura_Ace has consistently pointed out, a NFZ would require NATO to bomb targets inside Russia. That's WWIII in 48 hours. They wouldn't do it short of Russia using nukes.
Can't see how they have a greater 'presence' in the Black Sea either given the restrictions on travel through the Bosporus.
There's already an effective NFZ over eastern Ukraine and the disputed oblasts due to the vast amount of SAM systems that have proliferated. Russia and Ukraine are doing a very small number of aviation operations above 100'.
One element of Russian technology that has worked well in the SMO are the S-300/S-400 and other SAM systems. Both sides have used them very effectively to deny the airspace above a very low level.
Do the Russians have no equivalent of the HARM missiles?
They do. Unlike the Americans they do not regard SEAD as a specialist role, and don’t have special units to use such weapons.
Instead they add anti-SAM work as another task for the general ground attack aircraft units. So little training in the end.
This, combined with the general poor state of the Russian airforce is why they have made such a poor job of getting rid of the Ukraine SAM systems.
The idea that Russia deliberately targeted a grain silo in Poland is ridiculous. Clearly this was an accident either from Russian targeting or Ukrainian anti missile defences. Hopefully despite public statements both sides are using back channels to communicate that fact to each other this evening.
I don't think anyone disagrees with you.
The problem is that the Poles can't just let that happen and shrug.
No agreed and they’re not ignoring it. They’re raising their national security readiness and probably convening a NATO meeting on collective security. Those things aren’t nothing, it’s the equivalent of alarms and security lights going off when somebody tries to trespass. My worry on this forum is that people think there’s nothing between outright appeasement and starting a hot war with Russia.
What good is supplying them with amplifiers going to do, whether sent ad hoc or in an organised fashion? What they need is a massive foreign aid programme at the end of the war to assist in recovery, not some half baked effort to ensure they become heavy metal enthusiasts.
Sunak to BBC: "The number one challenge we face is inflation."
Which is it?
'Getting a grip' is a phrase that I would plan all elected politicians and Government appointees from using if I was PM. Along with any derivations of 'tough' or 'toughness' and 'tackling'. They are meaningless.
I would like polticians to say 'We will implement x change within x months and we aim to reduce the number of illegal immigrants from x to x by x. Otherwise piss off.
I'm not sorry to see the back of "fix" to mean "make worse or allow to fester". It was one of the more minor irritations of the Johnson era but irritating nonetheless.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
The war between the Cadbury's and Mars marketing departments following that Bounty story a few weeks ago is really heating up.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
My dander did rise when I read that. But it seems Cadbury's are trying their best. They're including a couple of full size twirls. Not ideal, but a reasonably honourable substitution. Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong. But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
My family started going to the dogs when we stopped getting Quality Street in.
How hard is it to chop up and pack a full size Twirl? Is the lack of Twirl choppers another Brexit effect?
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
The war between the Cadbury's and Mars marketing departments following that Bounty story a few weeks ago is really heating up.
Too right. After Bounty, what next? Is nothing sacred?
Can Sky News take bloody Death Rigby off our screens....has "serious" journalism, a sit down with the PM, become screaming apologise, apologise, why won't you apologise, I see you won't apologise....for something you didn't do, weren't in power when it happened and explicitly warned that it would happen if it was tried.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
My dander did rise when I read that. But it seems Cadbury's are trying their best. They're including a couple of full size twirls. Not ideal, but a reasonably honourable substitution. Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong. But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
My family started going to the dogs when we stopped getting Quality Street in.
How hard is it to chop up and pack a full size Twirl? Is the lack of Twirl choppers another Brexit effect?
I don’t work in manufacturing but I’d suspect it’s not that simple. A separate production line for mini twirls.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
Proper sized Mars Bars in them days too. None of this modern woke rubbish.
Russia now promotes a conspiracy theory that it was allegedly a missile of Ukrainian air defense that fell on the Polish theory. Which is not true. No one should buy Russian propaganda or amplify its messages. This lesson should have been long learnt since the downing of #MH17. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1592632386751434752
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
My dander did rise when I read that. But it seems Cadbury's are trying their best. They're including a couple of full size twirls. Not ideal, but a reasonably honourable substitution. Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong. But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
Heroes are rubbish compared to Celebrations.
In Celebrations you get proper choccie bars like Mars, Milky Way, Snickers, Galaxy, Twix, and Bounty (well you did last time I had some).
In Heroes you get some imitation bars that no one ever buys: (Dinky Decker, Crunchie Bits), then Wispa, Twirl and Dairy Milk that all basically just (poor quality) chocolate. Rubbish!
No argument in this flat, they’re mine. Dear GF pinched an inch of my tummy the other day and I passed it off as puppy fat - she’s still lean, mean captain of the volleyball team, whilst I know what I like to drink and eat and ****** getting on with it.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
My dander did rise when I read that. But it seems Cadbury's are trying their best. They're including a couple of full size twirls. Not ideal, but a reasonably honourable substitution. Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong. But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
My family started going to the dogs when we stopped getting Quality Street in.
How hard is it to chop up and pack a full size Twirl? Is the lack of Twirl choppers another Brexit effect?
I don’t work in manufacturing but I’d suspect it’s not that simple. A separate production line for mini twirls.
Balls. It’s the feckless workshy. Youngsters today don’t know they’re born. This is literally going to RUIN Christmas for millions of families but they’d rather take benefits than spend a honest days labour slicing confectionary into pieces manageable for the little kiddies to enjoy in front of Morcambe & Wise with their families. Makes you ashamed to be British
I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls. For example, the line from Techne would be straight up and now in thirties, I’m predicting next Saturday’s Opinium to be 31+. We haven’t had a Kantor for a while.
Your worm that turned can be gone next time you look. A case of Ephemeral Worms.
Have we returned to analysing hypothetical polls published at some vaguely defined point in the future?
Well. To be bluff. Yes.
You see different polls whose methodologies favour different results report at different times, maybe not even spaced but in clusters. People polling for example had a reform at 8 and others at six from their method, therefore a con of 21 last week, even though it sits away from the polling average or herding they are not remotely outliers for the firm, it’s what people polling been doing since they appeared, so it’s not an outlier because it’s in sequence to their method. Similarly Kantor, Techne and Opinium tend to produce higher Con share and they feed into this graph too - so where you have a statistical blip at the moment, next Techne 30 or 29, Opinium 31+ and a Kantor in 30s will make the blip vanish forever - the more recent ticks on the graph can be ephemeral.
We've had four polls in a row where that company's swing towards the Tories has slowed virtually to a halt, or started reversing. That might be a short term trend, but it's still a real trend, rather than a reporting quirk.
I understand your point about Opinium giving a higher Tory figure, but even their last two polls showed movement back towards Labour.
It’s a mixed picture right now, still to early to say the new leader bounce has peaked and gone into reverse - and rather shockingly didn’t really get anywhere in the first place.
It is beginning to look like that though. 😕
Definitely too early - but I don't see where it's mixed. If we had a selection of polls showing the lead coming solidly down, then that would be mixed, but they pretty much all seem to be slowing/reversing.
It's also a reasonable bounce - not many leaders start from 30%+ down, so it was always going to take time. He was always up against it, and I can't imagine people will be on a budget that raises tax and cuts spending.
I suspect they're looking to hang on till hopefully Ukraine win, and we see fuel prices and inflation fall, and they will claim it as a win for "grown-up politics" or some other nonsense.
It’s mixed because I’m not looking at gap between parties - if Starmgasm belches back to libdems 6% it stole the lead drops even if Tories rise not one iota. I am looking at the Tory share for their recovery, and the last three Techne each show an increase as one example of how it’s mixed, and the down tick does not tell us it’s mixed because of things like people polling con 21 and low yougov that didn’t move built in.
Isn't the Tory share doing exactly the same?
It was going up with when Rishi took over with just about every polling company.
Now it's going down, static, or the rise has slowed almost to a halt with every poll from the last week and that's from half a dozen different pollsters. People polling was down to 14pts before Rishi, so 14-20 was a jump, while 20-21-21 is a stalling. Techne has shown a 4pt jump, then a 3pt jump, and now a 1pt jump. That's technically three increases in a row, but it's also a clear slow down that every other polling company has reflected recently.
But a slow down is not a stop. Speed is not of the essence here, just direction of travel.
It’s still a mixed picture on polling, a good 7 days for Tory share and todays little kink in graph vanishes. you seem to be edging toward admitting it.
Have I missed something? I thought you were suggesting that the Rishi bounce was continuing, when we've had six polls in the last week or so, which all show it stalling.
We've gone from a steady increase, reflected across all the polls, to a week where the Tory vote change for each polling company is -2, -2, -1, +1, 0, 0. That's not mixed, that's pretty consistently showing that, for now, the Tory share is no longer going up.
It may go up again if they have a good week, but that doesn't make this week disappear.
I understand what you are trying to say, but this is where you are wrong.
The way you apply your sequence to your paragraph implies they are all apples of the same variety, but each one is of a different variety, any moment we can have a Kantor variety, Opinium variety. YouGov tend to be random could show +4 next regardless of anything else.
I think I am trying to take a longer bigger picture than you are. I think I am trying to be careful not to draw conclusions a honeymoon is over too soon as next set of polls could make mockery of that - yes it can make the kink in todays graph disappear into a smooth upward one. Over generous to the Tories my approach maybe right now, but only on basis of trying to be right and fair.
Opinium were included in that list. YouGov went from 19% before Rishi, to 23 then 24. They're the only polling company, apart from the 6 I mentioned, that I can see that have polled regularly through Truss/Rishi, who haven't polled in the last week or so, but I guess you could stick them in the same box of apples as they had a 4% honeymoon bounce, followed by a 1% change. There aren't lots of other polling companies that have polled throughout that we can identify any short term trends from.
If six polling companies all pretty much follow the same pattern, then it's a real thing, not a statistical quirk. It's also not going to make that bend into a smooth curve no matter what happens.
You can argue that Rishi might do something to restart his recovery - but it will still have stalled in the last week.
So, what are you saying? The honeymoon is over?
I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".
It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".
Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question
The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
Gavins Peak? 😆
One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
That’s not an argument. It’s just a contradiction.
Only one year in and embroiled in a proper PB contradiction.
Spoke with President Duda @prezydentpl about the explosion in #Poland. I offered my condolences for the loss of life. #NATO is monitoring the situation and Allies are closely consulting. Important that all facts are established."
No, it’s an accident. An accident is clearly not an attack. I mean, Russia should be more careful with its rockets, and of course they shouldn’t even be shooting them at Ukraine, but, no, don’t be silly, it’s not an attack on a NATO country.
How do you know it was an accident? You make an assumption that Poland was *not* the target - whilst it is likely the missiles went wrong, Putin's government are not exactly making sane actions atm. They might have felt a warning to NATO countries was necessary.
But even if Russia did not intend this, it is still an action and consequence of the reckless way they are pursuing their war.
I've no idea what the Polish response will be. But they must respond.
I think the idea is that it can't be anything other than an accident, because if it *isn't* an accident, then we're at war (and that'll go nuclear).
Article 5 is a great deterrent, but its also a real crimp when it comes to small incidents like this. The shooting down of MH17 was an Article 5 act. As was the Salisbury's poisoning. But Russia knows this, and knows the countries in question (Netherlands and us in the UK) can't do shit all about it. Activate article 5, that's nuclear war and the end of the world.
So Article 5 prevents countries like Poland being threatening by Russia in a major way, but it can't stop, and indeed it actually encourages, smaller 'accidents' to occur.
If Poland activates Article 5, I would expect Biden to politely but firmly 'decline' and tell Poland they are mistaken. They weren't Russian missiles. It was a weather balloon, or a gas explosion, or something else completely inplausible..... but it wasn't Russian missiles, and it DEFINTELY wasn't deliberate.....
(Of course, Poland might still go 'screw this' and have some missile accidents of their own.... but Russia has this nasty habit of taking unkindly to legitimate strikes on legitimate military targets. Bomber Harris' quote about the Nazis getting very upset that anyone should bomb them back is very prescient right about now).
Can Sky News take bloody Death Rigby off our screens....has "serious" journalism, a sit down with the PM, become screaming apologise, apologise, why won't you apologise, I see you won't apologise....for something you didn't do, weren't in power when it happened and explicitly warned that it would happen if it was tried.
Nice try but the fact remains the Conservative Party is in Government and has a working Parliamentary majority.
Accountability and transparency exists irrespective of who leads - yes, they can claim (perhaps correctly) they weren't part of the decision making process on that issue at that time but as the Prime Minister, they can't avoid accepting the consequences of those decisions.
Can Sky News take bloody Death Rigby off our screens....has "serious" journalism, a sit down with the PM, become screaming apologise, apologise, why won't you apologise, I see you won't apologise....for something you didn't do, weren't in power when it happened and explicitly warned that it would happen if it was tried.
Nice try but the fact remains the Conservative Party is in Government and has a working Parliamentary majority.
Accountability and transparency exists irrespective of who leads - yes, they can claim (perhaps correctly) they weren't part of the decision making process on that issue at that time but as the Prime Minister, they can't avoid accepting the consequences of those decisions.
Except in this case, Rigby was wanting Rishi to apologise for Truss disaster, which he explicitly said don't do that, its a terrible idea, it will lead to exactly what happened.
It was pathetic "when did you stop beating your wife" style "journalism", all to try and get clicks for a headline of "PM won't apologise".
Can Sky News take bloody Death Rigby off our screens....has "serious" journalism, a sit down with the PM, become screaming apologise, apologise, why won't you apologise, I see you won't apologise....for something you didn't do, weren't in power when it happened and explicitly warned that it would happen if it was tried.
Nice try but the fact remains the Conservative Party is in Government and has a working Parliamentary majority.
Accountability and transparency exists irrespective of who leads - yes, they can claim (perhaps correctly) they weren't part of the decision making process on that issue at that time but as the Prime Minister, they can't avoid accepting the consequences of those decisions.
Except in this case, Rishi explicitly said don't do that, its a terrible idea, it will lead to exactly what happened.
Badgering the PM about recent past failings of the goverment is fine, even if he was (briefly) not in government at the time. But pressing for an apology is just pointless - actions matter, and so will his plans help is the key, not whether he begs forgiveness for his sins or that of his predecessor.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
Proper sized Mars Bars in them days too. None of this modern woke rubbish.
I'd say the least woke confectionary product is a Yorkie bar. Just a great big slab of no nonsense, common sense chocolate in plain wrapping that tells it like it is. Simply says Yorkie. And the ad with the trucker doesn't pull any punches either. That it's still freely available shows this whole "cancel culture" thing is a figment of the reactionary imagination.
"Humans could face a reproductive crisis if action is not taken to tackle a drop in sperm count, researchers have warned after finding the rate of decline is accelerating.
"A study published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, based on 153 estimates from men who were probably unaware of their fertility, suggests that the average sperm concentration fell from an estimated 101.2m per ml to 49.0m per ml between 1973 and 2018 – a drop of 51.6%. Total sperm counts fell by 62.3% during the same period."
It really does feel like a bizarre conflation of apocalyptic forces is determined to kick humans off the planet. I'm calling it The Omnigeddon: Revenge of Gaia
It's strange. Excluding Russia, Ukraine is the biggest country in Europe. Yet the GDP in nominal terms of Ukraine is probably about 1% of the EU. Given unfreezing of Russian assets and sanctions is likely to involve a hefty sum being given to Ukraine from their side - $200bn? I'd have thought the west could probably manage another $300bn on top. For the UK that might mean £20bn over 5 years. Not vast amounts by any means.
OT New series of the Crown is weird. Prince Charles breakdancing. 5 mins later, children being bayoneted to death.
They hired @TSE to write the script and told him to come up with an example of chaos theory as well?
My favourite chaos theory.
Bill Clinton unzips his flies in Washington and people die in Sudan.
The missiles were launched three days after Clinton testified on the Clinton–Lewinsky scandal, and some countries, media outlets, protesters, and Republicans accused him of ordering the attacks as a diversion.
The attacks also drew parallels to the then-recently released movie Wag the Dog, which features a fictional president faking a war in Albania to distract attention from a sex scandal.
Can Sky News take bloody Death Rigby off our screens....has "serious" journalism, a sit down with the PM, become screaming apologise, apologise, why won't you apologise, I see you won't apologise....for something you didn't do, weren't in power when it happened and explicitly warned that it would happen if it was tried.
Nice try but the fact remains the Conservative Party is in Government and has a working Parliamentary majority.
Accountability and transparency exists irrespective of who leads - yes, they can claim (perhaps correctly) they weren't part of the decision making process on that issue at that time but as the Prime Minister, they can't avoid accepting the consequences of those decisions.
Except in this case, Rishi explicitly said don't do that, its a terrible idea, it will lead to exactly what happened.
Badgering the PM about recent past failings of the goverment is fine, even if he was (briefly) not in government at the time. But pressing for an apology is just pointless - actions matter, and so will his plans help is the key, not whether he begs forgiveness for his sins or that of his predecessor.
I would advise Sunak not to lift the bankers bonus cap at this time.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
My dander did rise when I read that. But it seems Cadbury's are trying their best. They're including a couple of full size twirls. Not ideal, but a reasonably honourable substitution. Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong. But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
Heroes are rubbish compared to Celebrations.
In Celebrations you get proper choccie bars like Mars, Milky Way, Snickers, Galaxy, Twix, and Bounty (well you did last time I had some).
In Heroes you get some imitation bars that no one ever buys: (Dinky Decker, Crunchie Bits), then Wispa, Twirl and Dairy Milk that all basically just (poor quality) chocolate. Rubbish!
Well let's see: Scores for exciting deliciousness: Mars: 4/10 Snickers: 5/10 Galaxy: 5/10 Twix: 2/10 Bounty: 6/10 Malteser: 5/10
Dairy Milk: 8/10 Twirl: 8/10 Wispa: 8/10 Creme Egg thingy: 6/10 Crunchie Bits 3/10 Double Decker 4/10 Fudge: 2/10 Eclair: 0/10 ( these normally end up just getting thrown away)
I'm not interested in chocolate with caramel inside of any sort.
On reflection, I've allowed my excitement at the top three Moniature Heroes to gloss over the disappponting supportingcast. Neither selections are that great.
Anyway, I won't be needing confectionary any time soon. I ordered some treacle toffee for bonfire night off the internet; ridiculously, only two quantities were able to get to me in time: 250g of Thorntons treacle toffee, or 3kg of bog standard treacle toffee. I went for the latter. I like treacle toffee, but it appears noone else does. It will still be here on New Years Eve.
Can Sky News take bloody Death Rigby off our screens....has "serious" journalism, a sit down with the PM, become screaming apologise, apologise, why won't you apologise, I see you won't apologise....for something you didn't do, weren't in power when it happened and explicitly warned that it would happen if it was tried.
Nice try but the fact remains the Conservative Party is in Government and has a working Parliamentary majority.
Accountability and transparency exists irrespective of who leads - yes, they can claim (perhaps correctly) they weren't part of the decision making process on that issue at that time but as the Prime Minister, they can't avoid accepting the consequences of those decisions.
Except in this case, Rigby was wanting Rishi to apologise for Truss disaster, which he explicitly said don't do that, its a terrible idea, it will lead to exactly what happened.
The problem then is how you do that within the confines of what still seems to be highly fragile Conservative "unity". Sunak, as you say, wasn't part of the Government which took those decisions and decided to pursue that policy but there is clearly a significant minority of Conservative MPs who remain convinced it was the right policy (John Redwood today being an example) but was simply presented poorly and hastily.
If Sunak chooses to throw Kwarteng and Truss under the bus he jeopardises that unity which is going to be tested on Thursday because the knee-jerk reaction of Conservatives to tax rises is not to be happy about them.
Yet the fact remains it was Conservative Government then and it's a Conservative Government now. Sunak may rightly argue he wasn't part of what happened but he has to mitigate the consequences of what happened.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
Proper sized Mars Bars in them days too. None of this modern woke rubbish.
I'd say the least woke confectionary product is a Yorkie bar. Just a great big slab of no nonsense, common sense chocolate in plain wrapping that tells it like it is. Simply says Yorkie. And the ad with the trucker doesn't pull any punches either. That it's still freely available shows this whole "cancel culture" thing is a figment of the reactionary imagination.
Yes, but it's not advertised as "Not for girls" any more. That got cancelled.
"Humans could face a reproductive crisis if action is not taken to tackle a drop in sperm count, researchers have warned after finding the rate of decline is accelerating.
"A study published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, based on 153 estimates from men who were probably unaware of their fertility, suggests that the average sperm concentration fell from an estimated 101.2m per ml to 49.0m per ml between 1973 and 2018 – a drop of 51.6%. Total sperm counts fell by 62.3% during the same period."
It really does feel like a bizarre conflation of apocalyptic forces is determined to kick humans off the planet. I'm calling it The Omnigeddon: Revenge of Gaia
I had heard that. But why? Part of me would say it's men getting less manly. Sitting at a laptop doing marketing rather than hewing lumps of coal out of the ground. That sort of thing. I suspect it's more complex though. There is some sort of 'fact' that men who do manly jobs have proportionally more daughters, though I don't know to what extent this stands up to any scrutiny. May be related. Or may be codswallop.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
My dander did rise when I read that. But it seems Cadbury's are trying their best. They're including a couple of full size twirls. Not ideal, but a reasonably honourable substitution. Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong. But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
Heroes are rubbish compared to Celebrations.
In Celebrations you get proper choccie bars like Mars, Milky Way, Snickers, Galaxy, Twix, and Bounty (well you did last time I had some).
In Heroes you get some imitation bars that no one ever buys: (Dinky Decker, Crunchie Bits), then Wispa, Twirl and Dairy Milk that all basically just (poor quality) chocolate. Rubbish!
Sense a split on here tonight between people who want to talk about Russian missiles hitting Poland and those who want to focus on chocolate.
I'm torn but I suppose I have to go one way or the other.
Christmas and chocolate for me means only one thing - Walnut Whip. Been getting a 3 pack in my stocking every year since before I can remember.
Puppy fat on a moon rabbit: It appears that congratulations are in order to some genetic engineers. And we can hope for an explanation of what they hope to achieve by this breakthrough.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
My dander did rise when I read that. But it seems Cadbury's are trying their best. They're including a couple of full size twirls. Not ideal, but a reasonably honourable substitution. Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong. But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
Heroes are rubbish compared to Celebrations.
In Celebrations you get proper choccie bars like Mars, Milky Way, Snickers, Galaxy, Twix, and Bounty (well you did last time I had some).
In Heroes you get some imitation bars that no one ever buys: (Dinky Decker, Crunchie Bits), then Wispa, Twirl and Dairy Milk that all basically just (poor quality) chocolate. Rubbish!
Well let's see: Scores for exciting deliciousness: Mars: 4/10 Snickers: 5/10 Galaxy: 5/10 Twix: 2/10 Bounty: 6/10 Malteser: 5/10
Dairy Milk: 8/10 Twirl: 8/10 Wispa: 8/10 Creme Egg thingy: 6/10 Crunchie Bits 3/10 Double Decker 4/10 Fudge: 2/10 Eclair: 0/10 ( these normally end up just getting thrown away)
I'm not interested in chocolate with caramel inside of any sort.
On reflection, I've allowed my excitement at the top three Moniature Heroes to gloss over the disappponting supportingcast. Neither selections are that great.
Anyway, I won't be needing confectionary any time soon. I ordered some treacle toffee for bonfire night off the internet; ridiculously, only two quantities were able to get to me in time: 250g of Thorntons treacle toffee, or 3kg of bog standard treacle toffee. I went for the latter. I like treacle toffee, but it appears noone else does. It will still be here on New Years Eve.
You should stick to your usual reviews of biscuits IMHO
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
Proper sized Mars Bars in them days too. None of this modern woke rubbish.
The idea that Russia deliberately targeted a grain silo in Poland is ridiculous. Clearly this was an accident either from Russian targeting or Ukrainian anti missile defences. Hopefully despite public statements both sides are using back channels to communicate that fact to each other this evening.
I don't think anyone disagrees with you.
The problem is that the Poles can't just let that happen and shrug.
We shrugged at Russia deliberately using a nerve agent on our soil to kill a couple of people. Not saying they should but I’m saying in context they might.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
Proper sized Mars Bars in them days too. None of this modern woke rubbish.
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
Meanwhile the most read article on the BBC News website as of now is “ Twirls substituted in some Heroes chocolate boxes”. It’s a serious situation to be sure.
Russian psyops.
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
Proper sized Mars Bars in them days too. None of this modern woke rubbish.
I'd say the least woke confectionary product is a Yorkie bar. Just a great big slab of no nonsense, common sense chocolate in plain wrapping that tells it like it is. Simply says Yorkie. And the ad with the trucker doesn't pull any punches either. That it's still freely available shows this whole "cancel culture" thing is a figment of the reactionary imagination.
I think they changed the recipe on the raisin & biscuit yorkie though - was my favourite but tastes weird now
Although I recently rediscovered orange Club biscuits 😊
Comments
One element of Russian technology that has worked well in the SMO are the S-300/S-400 and other SAM systems. Both sides have used them very effectively to deny the airspace above a very low level.
As a non-expert, it was well worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYDnspMWdaM
You sent me to "Tory Home’s lizard fanciers’ forum" ? Can't remember that. But firstly, I'm not a Tory. Secondly, I'm neither fond nor a hater of lizards. Thirdly, 'sending people' somewhere is a little cliched. You should add it to your little list - and never post it on here again.
Turns out it is just about lowering the voting age.
As everyone is still gnawing on the content of part one, here's the second bit:
... It was a pity Boris did not use the advice he was offered to cut out the money creation and bond buying and tighten money policy last year to keep inflation down. We have more inflation now than we needed. Japan and China remind us with their low inflation rates it was not all caused by oil and gas prices. It was a tragedy Liz did not present a rounded and costed Growth Plan within an economic framework that would have worked as some proposed. These mistakes must not lead the new team to conclude they must impose more austerity. The prime task today is fighting recession. Inflation will come down rapidly next year thanks to the monetary stringency now being applied. The Bank itself sees inflation down to 2% in a couple of years time.
If government accepts all the OBR and Bank advice to tighten too much into a downturn it will be bad economics and worse politics. We will end up with a deeper and longer downturn than we need, and with a bigger deficit than if we had been more willing to offset some of the recessionary forces. You cannot tax your way into growth and recovery. A fractious and unhappy party is in no mood for tax rises nor for spending cuts that harm individual incomes and front line services in health, law and order and education.
Of course there is a need to rein in wasteful and less essential public spending. In recent years the purse strings have been loosened across a very wide field. The Chancellor should stop the Bank of England taking losses on bonds. There is no need to do this. This will produce an immediate saving of £11bn this year. This has always been a joint control policy where the Bank needs the Chancellor’s approval.
Very funny but sadly not finished.
(I’d forgotten the Tories came second! in Dundee East. SLab got only 13%, in a seat they’d held for many decades.)
(No, I don't really expect sporting institutions to have insight one way or another)
Shashank Joshi
This epitomises the simplistic idea that ceasefires are neutral and always an unambiguous good. They’re not. It depends on the conflict and its particular phase. A temporary pause at this moment in Ukraine would benefit Russia more than Ukraine.
@Channel4News
"My plea to all of you is to think on a temporary ceasefire for one month, for the duration of the World Cup."
Fifa's president Gianni Infantino asks world leaders at the G20 to temporarily put an end to all conflicts during the tournament that begins on Sunday in Qatar.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592488324027265025?cxt=HHwWgsDR6a_s05ksAAAA
One has its roots in One China Nationalism.(In a expelling colonial overlords and local warlords sense).The other in Taiwanese Nationalism.
But it's a darn sight more complex than just that.
I would like polticians to say 'We will implement x change within x months and we aim to reduce the number of illegal immigrants from x to x by x. Otherwise piss off.
Forged in Fire: US Military Branch Battle Tournament
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gOQTdJFV0g
https://twitter.com/marqs__/status/1592626837825675265?s=46&t=eLBa3ZMndUM-wQLixLYgXQ
The screenwriter of THREADS should sue for plagiarism
My guess is that Boebart will indeed get re-elected when all is said & done. NOT that I wish her well!
Didn't we nearly lose the Falklands because all the Mars Bars went down with the Atlantic Conveyor?
This is going to be a huge and liquid market, and doesn’t have quite the same problems for punters as the Democrat one (Biden running/not running), since Trump’s partial collapse.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/15/trump-problem-republicans-desantis-00067030
… It should also be noted that DeSantis isn’t the only popular incumbent who ran a good race, and Florida isn’t a state where the GOP particularly needs a home-field advantage. Mike DeWine in Ohio, Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and Glenn Youngkin in Virginia all are Republican governors without Trumpist baggage in key states. In fact, DeWine outran incoming Sen. J.D. Vance in Ohio by 19 points, and Sununu outperformed Trump-backed Senate candidate Don Bolduc by nearly 25 points; DeSantis ran ahead of Sen. Marco Rubio by just 3 points.…
Note also the fairly secure (for now) Republican status of Florida rather weakens the argument for them to pick a Florida candidate.
The problem is that the Poles can't just let that happen and shrug.
Meanwhile Rowntrees are dropping bounty from Celebrations. Apparently 40% of people hate them. Seems a little strong.
But Celebrations are frankly nothing to get excited about anyway. Miniature Heroes are in a different league.
And for some reason they’ve made no really concerted SEAD effort
In short the Israelis were told to look at the bigger picture.
Edit: https://www.arrse.co.uk/wiki/Iranian_Mars_Bars
"Originally produced as part of a contract for the Shah of Iran in the late 1970s, these Mars Bars were never delivered and, instead, made their way into Compo 24 hour packs where they were to be found well into the early 90s, by which time they had developed an outer layer of fine white powder."
Nerve agents on UK soil ffs.
Instead they add anti-SAM work as another task for the general ground attack aircraft units. So little training in the end.
This, combined with the general poor state of the Russian airforce is why they have made such a poor job of getting rid of the Ukraine SAM systems.
How hard is it to chop up and pack a full size Twirl? Is the lack of Twirl choppers another Brexit effect?
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1592632386751434752
In Celebrations you get proper choccie bars like Mars, Milky Way, Snickers, Galaxy, Twix, and Bounty (well you did last time I had some).
In Heroes you get some imitation bars that no one ever buys: (Dinky Decker, Crunchie Bits), then Wispa, Twirl and Dairy Milk that all basically just (poor quality) chocolate. Rubbish!
It was an S 300 missile which Ukraine as well as Russia have used in the conflict
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855
Which country received the largest amount of lovely US sponduliks in the original Marshall Plan?
@jensstoltenberg
38m
Spoke with President Duda
@prezydentpl
about the explosion in #Poland. I offered my condolences for the loss of life. #NATO is monitoring the situation and Allies are closely consulting. Important that all facts are established."
https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1592627634042986497
Article 5 is a great deterrent, but its also a real crimp when it comes to small incidents like this. The shooting down of MH17 was an Article 5 act. As was the Salisbury's poisoning.
But Russia knows this, and knows the countries in question (Netherlands and us in the UK) can't do shit all about it. Activate article 5, that's nuclear war and the end of the world.
So Article 5 prevents countries like Poland being threatening by Russia in a major way, but it can't stop, and indeed it actually encourages, smaller 'accidents' to occur.
If Poland activates Article 5, I would expect Biden to politely but firmly 'decline' and tell Poland they are mistaken. They weren't Russian missiles. It was a weather balloon, or a gas explosion, or something else completely inplausible..... but it wasn't Russian missiles, and it DEFINTELY wasn't deliberate.....
(Of course, Poland might still go 'screw this' and have some missile accidents of their own.... but Russia has this nasty habit of taking unkindly to legitimate strikes on legitimate military targets. Bomber Harris' quote about the Nazis getting very upset that anyone should bomb them back is very prescient right about now).
Accountability and transparency exists irrespective of who leads - yes, they can claim (perhaps correctly) they weren't part of the decision making process on that issue at that time but as the Prime Minister, they can't avoid accepting the consequences of those decisions.
It was pathetic "when did you stop beating your wife" style "journalism", all to try and get clicks for a headline of "PM won't apologise".
"Humans could face a reproductive crisis if action is not taken to tackle a drop in sperm count, researchers have warned after finding the rate of decline is accelerating.
"A study published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, based on 153 estimates from men who were probably unaware of their fertility, suggests that the average sperm concentration fell from an estimated 101.2m per ml to 49.0m per ml between 1973 and 2018 – a drop of 51.6%. Total sperm counts fell by 62.3% during the same period."
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/15/humans-could-face-reproductive-crisis-as-sperm-count-declines-study-finds
It really does feel like a bizarre conflation of apocalyptic forces is determined to kick humans off the planet. I'm calling it The Omnigeddon: Revenge of Gaia
Bill Clinton unzips his flies in Washington and people die in Sudan.
The missiles were launched three days after Clinton testified on the Clinton–Lewinsky scandal, and some countries, media outlets, protesters, and Republicans accused him of ordering the attacks as a diversion.
The attacks also drew parallels to the then-recently released movie Wag the Dog, which features a fictional president faking a war in Albania to distract attention from a sex scandal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Infinite_Reach#Reactions_in_the_U.S.
Target orange grid reference, checks. Target distance, eight miles.
Copilot:
Roger, eight miles. Telemetric guidance computer into orange grid.
Bombardier:
Telemetric guidance computer into orange grid.
Navigator:
Target distance, seven miles. Correct track indicator, minus seven.
Copilot:
Roger. Seven miles. Set GPI acceleration factor.
Bombardier:
GPI diversion factor set.
Navigator:
Target distance, six miles.
Copilot:
Roger. Six miles. False ident transponder active.
Bombardier:
False ident transponder active.
Navigator:
Target distance, five miles.
Copilot:
Five miles. Bundling alignment factor zero mode.
Bombardier:
Bundling alignment factor to zero mode.
Navigator:
Target distance, four miles.
Copilot:
Roger. Four miles. Auto CDC into manual teleflex link.
Bombardier:
Auto CDC is to manual teleflex link.
Navigator:
Target distance, three miles.
Copilot:
Roger. Three miles.
Navigator:
Target in sight. Where in hell is Major Kong?
NEW THREAD
Scores for exciting deliciousness:
Mars: 4/10
Snickers: 5/10
Galaxy: 5/10
Twix: 2/10
Bounty: 6/10
Malteser: 5/10
Dairy Milk: 8/10
Twirl: 8/10
Wispa: 8/10
Creme Egg thingy: 6/10
Crunchie Bits 3/10
Double Decker 4/10
Fudge: 2/10
Eclair: 0/10 ( these normally end up just getting thrown away)
I'm not interested in chocolate with caramel inside of any sort.
On reflection, I've allowed my excitement at the top three Moniature Heroes to gloss over the disappponting supportingcast.
Neither selections are that great.
Anyway, I won't be needing confectionary any time soon. I ordered some treacle toffee for bonfire night off the internet; ridiculously, only two quantities were able to get to me in time: 250g of Thorntons treacle toffee, or 3kg of bog standard treacle toffee. I went for the latter. I like treacle toffee, but it appears noone else does. It will still be here on New Years Eve.
If Sunak chooses to throw Kwarteng and Truss under the bus he jeopardises that unity which is going to be tested on Thursday because the knee-jerk reaction of Conservatives to tax rises is not to be happy about them.
Yet the fact remains it was Conservative Government then and it's a Conservative Government now. Sunak may rightly argue he wasn't part of what happened but he has to mitigate the consequences of what happened.
There is some sort of 'fact' that men who do manly jobs have proportionally more daughters, though I don't know to what extent this stands up to any scrutiny. May be related. Or may be codswallop.
I'm torn but I suppose I have to go one way or the other.
Christmas and chocolate for me means only one thing - Walnut Whip. Been getting a 3 pack in my stocking every year since before I can remember.
Although I recently rediscovered orange Club biscuits 😊