Some Right wing Yankee doodles are starting to talk up a Lake, Masters, Laxalt hat trick in Ariz/Nevada. Masters would be a very bold call but he's certainly not out of it yet
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
"Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
He means you assign the number of seats per STV constituency using a mathematical formula. MPs are still elected.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.
Getting paid for writing a report stating that there are no good options, only differing degrees of bad ones, in respect of the currency if Scotland goes independent sounds like a really easy gig.
The options are: (a) Stick with sterling. Almost inevitable really but it means we lose all control or influence over interest rates, monetary policy and have very little room in respect of borrowing as those countries using the US dollar have found. (b) have a new Scottish currency. Would cause disruption in trading relations to rUK. Serious risks of depreciation, higher interest rates and tighter budgets until central bank credibility has been established. (c) Join the Euro. Similar problems to (a) and (b) combined with the additional issue that we don't qualify for membership atm given our structural deficit and it is not in our gift.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.
Would be very interesting reading, that report.
If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
Paid for by the Greens, so no.
Canny.
Hope none of their membership start asking about value for money.
Some Right wing Yankee doodles are starting to talk up a Lake, Masters, Laxalt hat trick in Ariz/Nevada. Masters would be a very bold call but he's certainly not out of it yet
Lake, Laxalt and Lombardo, is the AZ/NV hat-trick.
As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.
Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.
He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
2.5 the Dems to win WH24. Not too shabby imo.
If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.
It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.
There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.
Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.
He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
2.5 the Dems to win WH24. Not too shabby imo.
If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.
It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.
There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
Indeed, Trump may run as an Independent if he loses the GOP nomination to DeSantis
Given that Beto O'Rourke has suffered another dismal defeat how soon will he start his 2024 Presidential campaign ?
The dream of a Democratic Texas looks further away this morning.
Florida is now a red state too, IMHO. No Democratic presidential candidate should use it as a path to 270 anymore.
For at least the next cycle, certainly. What was the turnout in Texas ? The Democrats had a poor night, but the Republicans don't seem to achieved the blowout they were hoping for, either, with a couple of Congressional seats not filing to them.
Neither states are write-offs if you take a ten year view - which is what Democrats ought to be doing, IMO. Too much top down, and not enough ground up.
On that note, I see one of my favourite congresspersons, Elissa Slotkin in rural Michigan, was comfortably re-elected. One to watch for the future, perhaps.
As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.
Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.
He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
2.5 the Dems to win WH24. Not too shabby imo.
If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.
It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.
There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
Indeed, Trump may run as an Independent if he loses the GOP nomination to DeSantis
A Trump/DeSantis civil war, Trump running as an independent, encouraging Trumpist/MAGA candidates to run against Republicans in lots of other places, Democrats winning all over. It is the dream and it would be a just reward for the Republican party embracing Trump.
Just tell me how many Monday and Tuesday mail ballots there are and how many on-the-day dropbox votes there are outstanding and I will tell you who wins Nevada.
They provide a website giving you realtime data on which voters have voted when and where yet they can't give you a count of outstanding ballots to count.
Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..
There's something so infantile about Owen Jones that you wonder what he could have done that made him well known
He's another narcissist ideologue who happens to be on the left. But the media loves these very definite, somewhat articulate, not very bright people. They create vast amounts of hyperbolic content that generates clicks.
As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.
Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.
He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
2.5 the Dems to win WH24. Not too shabby imo.
If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.
It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.
There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
Indeed, Trump may run as an Independent if he loses the GOP nomination to DeSantis
A fear that presumably explains why so many established Republicans kowtow to him. The newer ones seem to genuinely worship him.
He doesn't offer any insights into why polling is wrong when there are a mass of early voters who have a 100% intention to vote and 100% decided on their candidate.
Could it possibly be, Nigel, that Republican-favouring pollsters are finding what their clients want them to find?
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.
Would be very interesting reading, that report.
If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
Some Right wing Yankee doodles are starting to talk up a Lake, Masters, Laxalt hat trick in Ariz/Nevada. Masters would be a very bold call but he's certainly not out of it yet
Lake, Laxalt and Lombardo, is the AZ/NV hat-trick.
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
"Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
He means you assign the number of seats per STV constituency using a mathematical formula. MPs are still elected.
I read it as MPs are elected for the whole county, and then individual MPs are assigned to a part of the county for constituency work.
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
"Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
He means you assign the number of seats per STV constituency using a mathematical formula. MPs are still elected.
I read it as MPs are elected for the whole county, and then individual MPs are assigned to a part of the county for constituency work.
Comments
Masters would be a very bold call but he's certainly not out of it yet
"That will be twenty pounds, please."
"Shite........"
Lauren Boebert
@laurenboebert
·
8h
US House candidate, CO-03
The red wave has begun!
Congratulations to Congresswoman
@realannapaulina
!
America First is winning!
Lauren Boebert
@laurenboebert
·
14h
US House candidate, CO-03
They called you cockroaches.
They called you cult members.
They called you extremists.
They called you terrorists.
Today, we call them losers!
#RedWave
https://twitter.com/laurenboebert?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Hope none of their membership start asking about value for money.
If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.
It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.
There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
The fact Laxalt is leading in Washoe and outperforming Trump 2020 there so much may suggest Cortez has a good margin still to come in Washoe.
What was the turnout in Texas ? The Democrats had a poor night, but the Republicans don't seem to achieved the blowout they were hoping for, either, with a couple of Congressional seats not filing to them.
Neither states are write-offs if you take a ten year view - which is what Democrats ought to be doing, IMO. Too much top down, and not enough ground up.
On that note, I see one of my favourite congresspersons, Elissa Slotkin in rural Michigan, was comfortably re-elected. One to watch for the future, perhaps.
They provide a website giving you realtime data on which voters have voted when and where yet they can't give you a count of outstanding ballots to count.
The country is just crazy.
Will he still have appeal as a commentator as a fossil?
NEW THREAD
That would be hilarious.
failed to make the gains needed to consolidate its position
Could it possibly be, Nigel, that Republican-favouring pollsters are finding what their clients want them to find?