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The betting as at 0417 GMT – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited November 2022
    Some Right wing Yankee doodles are starting to talk up a Lake, Masters, Laxalt hat trick in Ariz/Nevada.
    Masters would be a very bold call but he's certainly not out of it yet
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
    Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
    "Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
    He means you assign the number of seats per STV constituency using a mathematical formula. MPs are still elected.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.

    Getting paid for writing a report stating that there are no good options, only differing degrees of bad ones, in respect of the currency if Scotland goes independent sounds like a really easy gig.

    The options are:
    (a) Stick with sterling. Almost inevitable really but it means we lose all control or influence over interest rates, monetary policy and have very little room in respect of borrowing as those countries using the US dollar have found.
    (b) have a new Scottish currency. Would cause disruption in trading relations to rUK. Serious risks of depreciation, higher interest rates and tighter budgets until central bank credibility has been established.
    (c) Join the Euro. Similar problems to (a) and (b) combined with the additional issue that we don't qualify for membership atm given our structural deficit and it is not in our gift.

    Hope it didn't take Ronnie too long.
    "We have our FREEEEEEEEEEEEEDOM!"

    "That will be twenty pounds, please."

    "Shite........"
  • Could Lauren Boebart lose on CO3 ?

    She's 1.8% behind after 93% counted.

    Snes toast i think
    Her last tweets:

    Lauren Boebert
    @laurenboebert
    ·
    8h

    US House candidate, CO-03
    The red wave has begun!

    Congratulations to Congresswoman
    @realannapaulina
    !

    America First is winning!



    Lauren Boebert
    @laurenboebert
    ·
    14h

    US House candidate, CO-03
    They called you cockroaches.

    They called you cult members.

    They called you extremists.

    They called you terrorists.

    Today, we call them losers!

    #RedWave


    https://twitter.com/laurenboebert?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    Daily Express
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Telegraph


    Owen Jones
    Keir Starmer is a farcically two faced man, and however much his fans pretend otherwise, undeniable facts are undeniable facts. [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1590275680511885312

    Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..

    I believe him more in the first part of the video. Shades of Ed M in the second, saying what he thinks voters want to hear and not being a great liar.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Daily Express
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Telegraph


    Owen Jones
    Keir Starmer is a farcically two faced man, and however much his fans pretend otherwise, undeniable facts are undeniable facts. [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1590275680511885312

    Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..

    There's something so infantile about Owen Jones that you wonder what he could have done that made him well known
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358

    geoffw said:

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.

    Would be very interesting reading, that report.

    If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
    Paid for by the Greens, so no.
    Canny.

    Hope none of their membership start asking about value for money.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Some Right wing Yankee doodles are starting to talk up a Lake, Masters, Laxalt hat trick in Ariz/Nevada.
    Masters would be a very bold call but he's certainly not out of it yet

    Lake, Laxalt and Lombardo, is the AZ/NV hat-trick.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    HYUFD said:

    pm215 said:

    HYUFD said:


    As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.

    Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
    I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.

    He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
    2.5 the Dems to win WH24. Not too shabby imo.

    If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.

    It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.

    There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    pm215 said:

    HYUFD said:


    As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.

    Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
    I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.

    He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
    2.5 the Dems to win WH24. Not too shabby imo.

    If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.

    It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.

    There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
    Indeed, Trump may run as an Independent if he loses the GOP nomination to DeSantis
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Sandpit said:

    Hobbs v Lake now 51/49.

    Kari Lake to be one of few Trump-supported candidates to win?

    I do hope not. Dreadful woman.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    All mail in ballots are still to be counted in Clark and Washoe.

    The fact Laxalt is leading in Washoe and outperforming Trump 2020 there so much may suggest Cortez has a good margin still to come in Washoe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Given that Beto O'Rourke has suffered another dismal defeat how soon will he start his 2024 Presidential campaign ?

    The dream of a Democratic Texas looks further away this morning.

    Florida is now a red state too, IMHO. No Democratic presidential candidate should use it as a path to 270 anymore.
    For at least the next cycle, certainly.
    What was the turnout in Texas ? The Democrats had a poor night, but the Republicans don't seem to achieved the blowout they were hoping for, either, with a couple of Congressional seats not filing to them.

    Neither states are write-offs if you take a ten year view - which is what Democrats ought to be doing, IMO. Too much top down, and not enough ground up.

    On that note, I see one of my favourite congresspersons, Elissa Slotkin in rural Michigan, was comfortably re-elected. One to watch for the future, perhaps.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    pm215 said:

    HYUFD said:


    As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.

    Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
    I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.

    He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
    2.5 the Dems to win WH24. Not too shabby imo.

    If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.

    It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.

    There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
    Indeed, Trump may run as an Independent if he loses the GOP nomination to DeSantis
    A Trump/DeSantis civil war, Trump running as an independent, encouraging Trumpist/MAGA candidates to run against Republicans in lots of other places, Democrats winning all over. It is the dream and it would be a just reward for the Republican party embracing Trump.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just tell me how many Monday and Tuesday mail ballots there are and how many on-the-day dropbox votes there are outstanding and I will tell you who wins Nevada.

    They provide a website giving you realtime data on which voters have voted when and where yet they can't give you a count of outstanding ballots to count.

    The country is just crazy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Roger said:

    Daily Express
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Telegraph


    Owen Jones
    Keir Starmer is a farcically two faced man, and however much his fans pretend otherwise, undeniable facts are undeniable facts. [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1590275680511885312

    Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..

    There's something so infantile about Owen Jones that you wonder what he could have done that made him well known
    He was a reasonably eloquent youthful voice.

    Will he still have appeal as a commentator as a fossil?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    HYUFD said:
    One way to solve that would be to make it easier for people vote at the polling booth.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570
    Roger said:

    Daily Express
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Telegraph


    Owen Jones
    Keir Starmer is a farcically two faced man, and however much his fans pretend otherwise, undeniable facts are undeniable facts. [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1590275680511885312

    Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..

    There's something so infantile about Owen Jones that you wonder what he could have done that made him well known
    He's another narcissist ideologue who happens to be on the left. But the media loves these very definite, somewhat articulate, not very bright people. They create vast amounts of hyperbolic content that generates clicks.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Given that Beto O'Rourke has suffered another dismal defeat how soon will he start his 2024 Presidential campaign ?

    The dream of a Democratic Texas looks further away this morning.

    Florida is now a red state too, IMHO. No Democratic presidential candidate should use it as a path to 270 anymore.
    Yup, Florida is red. But I think the Dems would trade that for improving in PA, MI, MN, WI.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited November 2022
    Edit: wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    pm215 said:

    HYUFD said:


    As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.

    Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
    I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.

    He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
    2.5 the Dems to win WH24. Not too shabby imo.

    If the GOP pick Trump they lose. And if they don't he'll likely find ways to do damage.

    It pays to remember that Donald Trump is purely about himself. Absolutely nothing but himself. He thinks he owns the GOP nomination and if it doesn't happen I wouldn't rule out him running anyway. The attention, the rallies etc.

    There's some great betting plays here. But let's not be hasty. Let's allow things to percolate for 48 hours. Excited. No sleep. Can't bet in this condition.
    Indeed, Trump may run as an Independent if he loses the GOP nomination to DeSantis
    A fear that presumably explains why so many established Republicans kowtow to him. The newer ones seem to genuinely worship him.
  • NEW THREAD

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Please do not tease me with the thought of a Trump Independent run.

    That would be hilarious.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    This thread has

    failed to make the gains needed to consolidate its position

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    edited November 2022
    HYUFD said:
    He doesn't offer any insights into why polling is wrong when there are a mass of early voters who have a 100% intention to vote and 100% decided on their candidate.

    Could it possibly be, Nigel, that Republican-favouring pollsters are finding what their clients want them to find?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Daily Express
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Telegraph


    Owen Jones
    Keir Starmer is a farcically two faced man, and however much his fans pretend otherwise, undeniable facts are undeniable facts. [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1590275680511885312

    Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..

    There's something so infantile about Owen Jones that you wonder what he could have done that made him well known
    He was a reasonably eloquent youthful voice.

    Will he still have appeal as a commentator as a fossil?
    But there's such a history of great firebrand commentators of the left that you wonder how someone so trivial ever emerged
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    geoffw said:

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.

    Would be very interesting reading, that report.

    If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
    It was a report for the SGreens, not the SGov.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Sandpit said:

    Some Right wing Yankee doodles are starting to talk up a Lake, Masters, Laxalt hat trick in Ariz/Nevada.
    Masters would be a very bold call but he's certainly not out of it yet

    Lake, Laxalt and Lombardo, is the AZ/NV hat-trick.
    Either is tbf
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,790

    Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
    Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
    "Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
    He means you assign the number of seats per STV constituency using a mathematical formula. MPs are still elected.
    I read it as MPs are elected for the whole county, and then individual MPs are assigned to a part of the county for constituency work.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
    Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
    "Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
    He means you assign the number of seats per STV constituency using a mathematical formula. MPs are still elected.
    I read it as MPs are elected for the whole county, and then individual MPs are assigned to a part of the county for constituency work.
    I'm afraid you read wrong.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Good morning all!

    From a hospital bed, posting on an iPhone with just thumbs for control and dictating!
    Trust all well.
    Looks better in the states than we feared!

    Fantastic -
This discussion has been closed.