Will Trump and the cult now want the counting to stop !
Although Kelly has a good lead in Arizona it’s not a done deal yet because the remaining votes are likely to skew strongly for the GOP and Nevada looks like it will end up very close once more votes are counted .
It's still far from over, albeit the Democrats will be happier at this point.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
With that PA flip this may not end up 50:50 ...
It's possible the Dems could take the Senate outright which would be amazing in context.
But let's see.
Not by Betfair rules.
Yes good clarifications by you and CR.
I was commenting politically on this occasion not punting.
IF, and it remains a big if, it does go 51:49 Dem then that will be a stunning result in context. Even to hold 50:50 will be significant.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
Well done. I'd have been the same if I'd not flipped it at 10pm last night! Let that be a lesson on 'early results'.
After some emergency trading this morning I should break even, my house winnings overcome a small loss on the senate, but it's my Nevada bet that's killing my position.
Literally just before I turned off the light I flipped my Nevada bet from GOP to (tiny) Dem stake.
I read a ralston tweet which suggested either turnout was through the floor or there was a lot of on the day drop offs that hadn't been accounted for.
Nevada is showing 55%-44% to the Dem, with half the vote in - but that half is almost all Clark County (Las Vegas), the most Dem part of the State. It’s going to close substantially as the rest of the State declares.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
I used Herschel Walker as a model when he was an American footballer. I remember him well. I believe he's subsequently gone off the rails and from being a football prodigy he's now a Trump prodigy. He's got to be the bellwether for tonight's election. I think I'll have to hope he loses.
You're a fan of American football? I was using two footballers Herschel Walker was one but the other was more famous and they were all making a huge fuss of him. He was the quarter back (I think) for the same team known as the Dogs (probably Georgia). He was whie and I can't remember his name or find it. Any ideas?
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
It wouldn’t have the capability if it wanted to, and it wouldn’t want to because in that world it would feel its interests were best served by seeing a “Greater Russia” emerge. More likely to be a client state.
I think that's totally wrong. China wants a weak Russia, and the 'Greater Russia' would be stronger. And Europe - which is fairly strongly in favour of maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty, is also a major customer for China. Russia is not.
Helping Ukraine in a defensive capacity also earns China brownie points for when they want to do (ahem) dodgier things.
I know you really care about Ukraine, and so should all good people, but it really isn't the subject uppermost for many, even most, politicians and countries. Not America. Not China.
You may lament it, and for you it may be the thing you think about more than anything, but there are other competing global concerns.
Who would have thought that polling averages influenced by a flood of highly partisan polls including the completely ficticious Trafalgar garbage would be so wrong.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
Well done. I'd have been the same if I'd not flipped it at 10pm last night! Let that be a lesson on 'early results'.
After some emergency trading this morning I should break even, my house winnings overcome a small loss on the senate, but it's my Nevada bet that's killing my position.
Literally just before I turned off the light I flipped my Nevada bet from GOP to (tiny) Dem stake.
I read a ralston tweet which suggested either turnout was through the floor or there was a lot of on the day drop offs that hadn't been accounted for.
Nevada is showing 55%-44% to the Dem, with half the vote in - but that half is almost all Clark County (Las Vegas), the most Dem part of the State. It’s going to close substantially as the rest of the State declares.
Washoe is key now . The Election Day vote went strongly for the GOP and so it’s down to the mail in ballots.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
Well done. I'd have been the same if I'd not flipped it at 10pm last night! Let that be a lesson on 'early results'.
After some emergency trading this morning I should break even, my house winnings overcome a small loss on the senate, but it's my Nevada bet that's killing my position.
Literally just before I turned off the light I flipped my Nevada bet from GOP to (tiny) Dem stake.
I read a ralston tweet which suggested either turnout was through the floor or there was a lot of on the day drop offs that hadn't been accounted for.
Nevada is showing 55%-44% to the Dem, with half the vote in - but that half is almost all Clark County (Las Vegas), the most Dem part of the State. It’s going to close substantially as the rest of the State declares.
While that's true, it's worth remembering that three quarters of Nevada's population lives in Clark County.
What a fantastic win for Fetterman. A truly inspirational story .
Let's be honest, he is a shit candidate.
Hw won because Oz is even worse But there is no way someone like Fetternan should be a national politician.
He won because Mastriano decided to make the election about whether the Jews really ran America. A spectacular own goal from the Republicans.
One of the problems with tonight's results is that it is likely to tell the Democrats that it makes sense to fund the more extremist GOP candidates when it comes to primaries. I'm not sure that is great for democracy.
The odds on the Arizona Governor race have evened up dramatically - has PB hot tip Lake been hit by the Curse of Leondamus?
Lake is still some way behind, at 50% counted. I think the remaining votes will favour her, but it’s very close.
If she wins, she’s immediately thought of a a possible future presidential candidate - but if not, her career could be over before it started. That said, Beto O’Rouke is making a good career out of losing in Texas.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
Well done. I'd have been the same if I'd not flipped it at 10pm last night! Let that be a lesson on 'early results'.
After some emergency trading this morning I should break even, my house winnings overcome a small loss on the senate, but it's my Nevada bet that's killing my position.
Literally just before I turned off the light I flipped my Nevada bet from GOP to (tiny) Dem stake.
I read a ralston tweet which suggested either turnout was through the floor or there was a lot of on the day drop offs that hadn't been accounted for.
Nevada is showing 55%-44% to the Dem, with half the vote in - but that half is almost all Clark County (Las Vegas), the most Dem part of the State. It’s going to close substantially as the rest of the State declares.
The rurals apparently smashed it for the GOP and the Washoe early vote doesn't look enough to overcome the in day voting unless there was a big swing amongst indies to the Ds. It's going to be very close.
The odds on the Arizona Governor race have evened up dramatically - has PB hot tip Lake been hit by the Curse of Leondamus?
Lake is still some way behind, at 50% counted. I think the remaining votes will favour her, but it’s very close.
If she wins, she’s immediately thought of a a possible future presidential candidate - but if not, her career could be over before it started. That said, Beto O’Rouke is making a good career out of losing in Texas.
The signs across the world that people want a bit more substance from our politicians in hard times, is mildly encouraging. Except the Italians, obvs.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
It wouldn’t have the capability if it wanted to, and it wouldn’t want to because in that world it would feel its interests were best served by seeing a “Greater Russia” emerge. More likely to be a client state.
I think that's totally wrong. China wants a weak Russia, and the 'Greater Russia' would be stronger. And Europe - which is fairly strongly in favour of maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty, is also a major customer for China. Russia is not.
Helping Ukraine in a defensive capacity also earns China brownie points for when they want to do (ahem) dodgier things.
I know you really care about Ukraine, and so should all good people, but it really isn't the subject uppermost for many, even most, politicians and countries. Not America. Not China.
You may lament it, and for you it may be the thing you think about more than anything, but there are other competing global concerns.
Don't shoot me down. I'm just saying.
Have I ever said there are not other competing global concerns?
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
Well done. I'd have been the same if I'd not flipped it at 10pm last night! Let that be a lesson on 'early results'.
After some emergency trading this morning I should break even, my house winnings overcome a small loss on the senate, but it's my Nevada bet that's killing my position.
Literally just before I turned off the light I flipped my Nevada bet from GOP to (tiny) Dem stake.
I read a ralston tweet which suggested either turnout was through the floor or there was a lot of on the day drop offs that hadn't been accounted for.
Nevada is showing 55%-44% to the Dem, with half the vote in - but that half is almost all Clark County (Las Vegas), the most Dem part of the State. It’s going to close substantially as the rest of the State declares.
While that's true, it's worth remembering that three quarters of Nevada's population lives in Clark County.
Yeah, sure there is no one in the rural parts of Nevada but those that are are voting GOP in eye popping ratios.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
I can’t see China arming the Ukranians. The equipment, training and logistics isn’t there for that, before we talk about other allies trusting the Chinese.
What’s quite probable though, is China taking advantage of Russian instability to take a good look at their own border. A Chinese push to gain Russian territory in the East, would really annoy the Russians, who can barely string together something approaching an army in the West, without having to worry about the East as well.
What China could do is simply sail a fleet up past Russia's east coast, although the weather might no longer allow them to turn left at the top. But they could have done this at the start. It was supposed that Putin had made some sort of deal with Xi to give Russia a free hand, in which case Putin might not feel pressured to shore up his eastern flank.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
.......you missed Bolsonaro
An Le Pen, only a few months ago. Next stop Putin!
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
It wouldn’t have the capability if it wanted to, and it wouldn’t want to because in that world it would feel its interests were best served by seeing a “Greater Russia” emerge. More likely to be a client state.
I think that's totally wrong. China wants a weak Russia, and the 'Greater Russia' would be stronger. And Europe - which is fairly strongly in favour of maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty, is also a major customer for China. Russia is not.
Helping Ukraine in a defensive capacity also earns China brownie points for when they want to do (ahem) dodgier things.
Disagree with the last bit if you like, because it’s a matter of opinion/assessment. But the available evidence supports the first bit. China can’t yet do out of area Ops in the way the US can at anything like the same scale:
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
I don’t share your optimism. If people’s lives appear to go down the sh*tter once the populists have gone then I think it just sets up act two. Of those you name, only Trump lost an election having seen his own failures come home to roost (which is why I think he won’t win again).
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
.......you missed Bolsonaro
An Le Pen, only a few months ago. Next stop Putin!
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
I don’t share your optimism. If people’s lives appear to go down the sh*tter once the populists have gone then I think it just sets up act two. Of those you name, only Trump lost an election having seen his own failures come home to roost (which is why I think he won’t win again).
Act 2 might well be the left wing Populists, not the Right wingers.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
Certainly better news but it remains difficult to be excited by the overall quality of the political class of all colours right now in most places. I mean how would you characterise the obvious senility of Biden and Fetterman is hardly a worthy exemplar for the Democrats. And here in Europe there are some pretty shocking characters in positions of power in several places. To be fair my own country of residence the leaders of the 2 main parties are ok but on current polling both are dependant on extremists of left and right and continuing issues with Catascotlandia
Who would have thought that polling averages influenced by a flood of highly partisan polls including the completely ficticious Trafalgar garbage would be so wrong.
I don't think the plethora of Republican friendly polls made much difference to what's happening. As I've posted a number of times in the last week, the clues to a better than expected Democrat performance lay in the record breaking number of early votes and the reportedly high young voter involvement. It will be interesting to see the figures for young voters when they become available and also those for women which may well have been buoyed by the Roe SC decision.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
I don’t share your optimism. If people’s lives appear to go down the sh*tter once the populists have gone then I think it just sets up act two. Of those you name, only Trump lost an election having seen his own failures come home to roost (which is why I think he won’t win again).
Act 2 might well be the left wing Populists, not the Right wingers.
Fair. Everyone gets to have a go again. We all just hope we’re not the lucky country.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
.......you missed Bolsonaro
An Le Pen, only a few months ago. Next stop Putin!
Leon's political heart-throbs taking a beating.
What a mare of a year he’s having - Johnson, Truss, no second coming for the clown, now his pet American whackos are in trouble…and we’re still so far safe from nuclear war and alien invasion!
Incidentally I am deeply disapointed that the GOP PA candidates were so shit we missed out on on play betting opportunities as the Philly vote was slowly counted.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
It wouldn’t have the capability if it wanted to, and it wouldn’t want to because in that world it would feel its interests were best served by seeing a “Greater Russia” emerge. More likely to be a client state.
I think that's totally wrong. China wants a weak Russia, and the 'Greater Russia' would be stronger. And Europe - which is fairly strongly in favour of maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty, is also a major customer for China. Russia is not.
Helping Ukraine in a defensive capacity also earns China brownie points for when they want to do (ahem) dodgier things.
Disagree with the last bit if you like, because it’s a matter of opinion/assessment. But the available evidence supports the first bit. China can’t yet do out of area Ops in the way the US can at anything like the same scale:
I'm not talking about China setting boots on the ground. Just china 'helping' Ukraine in the same way the US has. There are many aspects to this, many positive for China. Another example is the arms trade: the reputation of Russia's armaments has taken a pasting in the last nine months. China will want to grab many of those exports. What better way than showing them in action (and I have little doubt that modern Chinese weapons are of a better quality than Russia's).
But if they did want boots on the ground (and I don't think they'd do that), then the Ukraine war might be a good learning experience - in the same way that Russia (mis)used Syria - although in that case, Russia does not seem to have learnt enough.
Again, I'm not saying this will happen: but I do think it is a possibility if the US was to pull out.
I'm not sure why US polling is being criticised. On the whole, it looks like the pollsters put in quite a good performance.
In all likelihood, the Republicans will lead in vote share by about 1.5% for the House, with about 225/226 seats. That's in line with the 538 average, and only about 1% less than the RCP average.
What this shows is that candidate selection still matters. If you select a bad candidate, a very small, but noticeable, minority of your normal supporters won't vote for them. The Republicans ought to have won Georgia fairly easily, and to have held Pennsylvania, given the national environment is more favourable than it was two years ago. Their candidates ensured they didn't.
I’m feeling rather confident on my DeSantis 2024 bets.
If Trump doesn't get Rep Nom what's to stop him filing and running as an independent ?
He'd split the base and deny De Santis victory. Biden wins.
My thinking is this.
The GOP will do a deal with Trump: step out of the race and we will protect you from prosecution.
I think he knows, post-tonight, it's over - it is clear he turns out many voters but also RDS is a winner.
Trump will think tonight what he always thinks, that he is special, that he is the only person able to give the GOP the boost they need, because he is bigger than the GOP.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
Certainly better news but it remains difficult to be excited by the overall quality of the political class of all colours right now in most places. I mean how would you characterise the obvious senility of Biden and Fetterman is hardly a worthy exemplar for the Democrats. And here in Europe there are some pretty shocking characters in positions of power in several places. To be fair my own country of residence the leaders of the 2 main parties are ok but on current polling both are dependant on extremists of left and right and continuing issues with Catascotlandia
Biden is old but has always been a bit dozy and prone to blankouts etc. He is still a wily operator, and if he pulls off these mid terms then clearly still a force to be reckoned with.
I heard a bit of Trumps speech the other day. Completely delusional about how he lost. He would take a hell of a beating if that was the central theme of his campaign.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
It wouldn’t have the capability if it wanted to, and it wouldn’t want to because in that world it would feel its interests were best served by seeing a “Greater Russia” emerge. More likely to be a client state.
I think that's totally wrong. China wants a weak Russia, and the 'Greater Russia' would be stronger. And Europe - which is fairly strongly in favour of maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty, is also a major customer for China. Russia is not.
Helping Ukraine in a defensive capacity also earns China brownie points for when they want to do (ahem) dodgier things.
Disagree with the last bit if you like, because it’s a matter of opinion/assessment. But the available evidence supports the first bit. China can’t yet do out of area Ops in the way the US can at anything like the same scale:
I'm not talking about China setting boots on the ground. Just china 'helping' Ukraine in the same way the US has. There are many aspects to this, many positive for China. Another example is the arms trade: the reputation of Russia's armaments has taken a pasting in the last nine months. China will want to grab many of those exports. What better way than showing them in action (and I have little doubt that modern Chinese weapons are of a better quality than Russia's).
But if they did want boots on the ground (and I don't think they'd do that), then the Ukraine war might be a good learning experience - in the same way that Russia (mis)used Syria - although in that case, Russia does not seem to have learnt enough.
Again, I'm not saying this will happen: but I do think it is a possibility if the US was to pull out.
Trouble is China has conditioned its population to believe Russia is in an existential fight against the NATO imperialists aided and abetted by Nazi LGBT satanists in Ukraine, so doing anything beyond just moderating its political support for Russia would be a Truss-Kwarteng level of u-turn.
Morning all. Lame effort from the GOP outside Florexas/Texida and a handful of New York seats. Looks like they squeak a House majority, maybe on something as shit as Palin getting transfers! If so and they manage to get over the line in Nevada or much more unlikely Arizona (althiogh I think Lake will just make it) its all on the Georgia runoff!
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
.......you missed Bolsonaro
An Le Pen, only a few months ago. Next stop Putin!
Leon's political heart-throbs taking a beating.
IMO, Le Pen, or her party will win next time in France. The cordon sanitaire has been well and truly broken, and RN are now established as the main party on the Right.
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
I think RDS has this now. In hindsight, it might be the reason why Trump held off an announcement pre-election
Yes but don't we think that Trump is capable of causing RDS a lot of trouble? If this is the way it goes, will the GOP be able to persuade Trump of backing RDS? Or might we have a 3rd big hitter on the ballot, Trump going solo and drawing off support from the Republicans?
So far the red wave looks like more of a red trickle.
Democrats likely to hold the Senate and while the GOP take the House it is with far fewer gains than they made in the 1994 and 2010 midterms and fewer too than the Democrats made in 2018
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
.......you missed Bolsonaro
An Le Pen, only a few months ago. Next stop Putin!
Leon's political heart-throbs taking a beating.
IMO, Le Pen, or her party will win next time in France. The cordon sanitaire has been well and truly broken, and RN are now established as the main party on the Right.
That depends on whether or not Macron can find an attractive replacement.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
.......you missed Bolsonaro
An Le Pen, only a few months ago. Next stop Putin!
Leon's political heart-throbs taking a beating.
IMO, Le Pen, or her party will win next time in France. The cordon sanitaire has been well and truly broken, and RN are now established as the main party on the Right.
Been hearing that for decades, I am not convinced.
RN no longer have a Le Pen as leader for the first time.
Feeling pretty pleased in my prediction last night that Democrats would outperform expectations.
I said it would be a narrow House loss but they would hold the Senate. Let’s see where things develop in the next few hours - Senate still on a knife edge but Dems must be slightly favoured at this stage.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
It wouldn’t have the capability if it wanted to, and it wouldn’t want to because in that world it would feel its interests were best served by seeing a “Greater Russia” emerge. More likely to be a client state.
I think that's totally wrong. China wants a weak Russia, and the 'Greater Russia' would be stronger. And Europe - which is fairly strongly in favour of maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty, is also a major customer for China. Russia is not.
Helping Ukraine in a defensive capacity also earns China brownie points for when they want to do (ahem) dodgier things.
Disagree with the last bit if you like, because it’s a matter of opinion/assessment. But the available evidence supports the first bit. China can’t yet do out of area Ops in the way the US can at anything like the same scale:
China has a massive shipping fleet, and a massive arms industry.
Let's look at the scenario in more detail: the US stops giving any military aid to Ukraine. Europe and others still want Ukraine to win - because they are threatened by a Russian 'win'. Much of the US-supplied kit will become useless over time as ammunition and spares supplies decrease. But Ukraine still has vast numbers of ex-Soviet kit, both their own and captured.
So China says: "Hey, we will give you loads of ammo for that kit. And maybe new stuff. We'll send it over to Alexandroupoli." Europe then have two options: not to accept the help and transfer the kit to Ukraine, or to accept the help.
Unless there are massive strings attached, they will accept the help.
It's also interesting to think what such a move would mean geopolitcally. For instance, how would the African states who seem to be lukewarm, or siding towards Russia, act given China's presence inside Africa?
Again, I'm not saying this will happen; just that it is a possibility.
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
.......you missed Bolsonaro
An Le Pen, only a few months ago. Next stop Putin!
Leon's political heart-throbs taking a beating.
IMO, Le Pen, or her party will win next time in France. The cordon sanitaire has been well and truly broken, and RN are now established as the main party on the Right.
Macron can't run again in 2027, of course Melenchon would also be a contender and Les Republicains if they find a decent candidate best placed to win the runoff
I'm not sure why US polling is being criticised. On the whole, it looks like the pollsters put in quite a good performance.
In all likelihood, the Republicans will lead in vote share by about 1.5% for the House, with about 225/226 seats. That's in line with the 538 average, and only about 1% less than the RCP average.
What this shows is that candidate selection still matters. If you select a bad candidate, a very small, but noticeable, minority of your normal supporters won't vote for them. The Republicans ought to have won Georgia fairly easily, and to have held Pennsylvania, given the national environment is more favourable than it was two years ago. Their candidates ensured they didn't.
National level polls are not the problem in the USA, it is the state polls.
538 including Trafalgar (at an A rating!) is a serious error of judgement. They actually took them out in 2020 but Nate had a phone call with Cahaly and found him convincing enough to put back in.
Trafalgar polls are made up. Entirely of red flags.
This year Trafalgar really pushed the boat out in pouring out numbers.
So far the red wave looks like more of a red trickle.
Democrats likely to hold the Senate and while the GOP take the House it is with far fewer gains than they made in the 1994 and 2010 midterms and fewer too than the Democrats made in 2018
Good news for Sunak (incumbents can hang on despite economic headwinds and unfavourable polls) and good news for Starmer (the world is tired of the right, the centre left look stronger and fresh).
Morning all. Lame effort from the GOP outside Florexas/Texida and a handful of New York seats. Looks like they squeak a House majority, maybe on something as shit as Palin getting transfers! If so and they manage to get over the line in Nevada or much more unlikely Arizona (althiogh I think Lake will just make it) its all on the Georgia runoff!
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
I think RDS has this now. In hindsight, it might be the reason why Trump held off an announcement pre-election
Yes but don't we think that Trump is capable of causing RDS a lot of trouble? If this is the way it goes, will the GOP be able to persuade Trump of backing RDS? Or might we have a 3rd big hitter on the ballot, Trump going solo and drawing off support from the Republicans?
If Trump endorsed candidates lose, and Trump's grip on the GOP is removed, then the real winner is America, democracy and the world.
Or you get very hardline Republicans who are just a lot more intelligent than Trump, like Ron de Santis. The thing about Trump is that he's too incompetent to be able to really subvert democracy.
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
I think RDS has this now. In hindsight, it might be the reason why Trump held off an announcement pre-election
Yes but don't we think that Trump is capable of causing RDS a lot of trouble? If this is the way it goes, will the GOP be able to persuade Trump of backing RDS? Or might we have a 3rd big hitter on the ballot, Trump going solo and drawing off support from the Republicans?
If Trump endorsed candidates lose, and Trump's grip on the GOP is removed, then the real winner is America, democracy and the world.
Or you get very hardline Republicans who are just a lot more intelligent than Trump, like Ron de Santis. The thing about Trump is that he's too incompetent to be able to really subvert democracy.
I don't know much about DeSantis. Is he hardline in his politics, or in wanting to subvert democracy?
Someone who has hardcore politics that I disagree with, democratically elected, is far superior to someone willing to subvert democracy even if you agree with their politics.
So far the red wave looks like more of a red trickle.
Democrats likely to hold the Senate and while the GOP take the House it is with far fewer gains than they made in the 1994 and 2010 midterms and fewer too than the Democrats made in 2018
While that's so, bear in mind in 1994 and 2010, the Republicans were starting from a considerably lower base (as were the Democrats in 2018).
What I hadn't appreciated is that boundary changes actually favoured the Democrats this time, after State Supreme Courts struck down redistricting in Ohio and North Carolina.
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
I think RDS has this now. In hindsight, it might be the reason why Trump held off an announcement pre-election
Yes but don't we think that Trump is capable of causing RDS a lot of trouble? If this is the way it goes, will the GOP be able to persuade Trump of backing RDS? Or might we have a 3rd big hitter on the ballot, Trump going solo and drawing off support from the Republicans?
If Trump endorsed candidates lose, and Trump's grip on the GOP is removed, then the real winner is America, democracy and the world.
Or you get very hardline Republicans who are just a lot more intelligent than Trump, like Ron de Santis. The thing about Trump is that he's too incompetent to be able to really subvert democracy.
Plus some blue-collar Democrats will only turn out to vote GOP if Trump is on the ballot, not for Trump backed extremists or conventional or moderate GOP.
He is like Boris in that respect, toxic to his opponents but reaches white working class voters no other conservative can too.
Morning all. Lame effort from the GOP outside Florexas/Texida and a handful of New York seats. Looks like they squeak a House majority, maybe on something as shit as Palin getting transfers! If so and they manage to get over the line in Nevada or much more unlikely Arizona (althiogh I think Lake will just make it) its all on the Georgia runoff!
How much money is going to be thrown at THAT?
I'm heading to Fulton with some comedy suitcases full of ballots for the lolz
Feeling pretty pleased in my prediction last night that Democrats would outperform expectations.
I said it would be a narrow House loss but they would hold the Senate. Let’s see where things develop in the next few hours - Senate still on a knife edge but Dems must be slightly favoured at this stage.
Good call. I have to say I was expecting an absolute drubbing for the Dems and so have woken up feeling slightly better about the world.
Comments
Hw won because Oz is even worse But there is no way someone like Fetternan should be a national politician.
I was commenting politically on this occasion not punting.
IF, and it remains a big if, it does go 51:49 Dem then that will be a stunning result in context. Even to hold 50:50 will be significant.
You may lament it, and for you it may be the thing you think about more than anything, but there are other competing global concerns.
Don't shoot me down. I'm just saying.
Rep 219, Dem 216
If she wins, she’s immediately thought of a a possible future presidential candidate - but if not, her career could be over before it started. That said, Beto O’Rouke is making a good career out of losing in Texas.
Masto up by 2k based on Early Voting to Sunday in Washoe.
Add on Monday and Tuesday drop offs and it is going to be a squeaker.
I lost on JD Vance and a hilariously speculative bet on my man Egg McMuffin in Utah.
Next stop Putin!
He'd split the base and deny De Santis victory. Biden wins.
At the moment, he is running around 2-4% ahead of Trump in 2020.
Dem Gov trailing Dem Senate performance
As I've posted a number of times in the last week, the clues to a better than expected Democrat performance lay in the record breaking number of early votes and the reportedly high young voter involvement. It will be interesting to see the figures for young voters when they become available and also those for women which may well have been buoyed by the Roe SC decision.
But entirely possible that neither or both win.
The GOP will do a deal with Trump: step out of the race and we will protect you from prosecution.
I think he knows, post-tonight, it's over - it is clear he turns out many voters but also RDS is a winner.
But if they did want boots on the ground (and I don't think they'd do that), then the Ukraine war might be a good learning experience - in the same way that Russia (mis)used Syria - although in that case, Russia does not seem to have learnt enough.
Again, I'm not saying this will happen: but I do think it is a possibility if the US was to pull out.
The D lead in Clark is coming down plus the rurals look to have smashed it
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590238927792635907
In all likelihood, the Republicans will lead in vote share by about 1.5% for the House, with about 225/226 seats. That's in line with the 538 average, and only about 1% less than the RCP average.
What this shows is that candidate selection still matters. If you select a bad candidate, a very small, but noticeable, minority of your normal supporters won't vote for them. The Republicans ought to have won Georgia fairly easily, and to have held Pennsylvania, given the national environment is more favourable than it was two years ago. Their candidates ensured they didn't.
I heard a bit of Trumps speech the other day. Completely delusional about how he lost. He would take a hell of a beating if that was the central theme of his campaign.
Looks like they squeak a House majority, maybe on something as shit as Palin getting transfers!
If so and they manage to get over the line in Nevada or much more unlikely Arizona (althiogh I think Lake will just make it) its all on the Georgia runoff!
I expect that he's still very good odds for the nomination.
The Times are reporting that Mark Wood will not play due to injury and Chris Jordan will.
My gut is that Laxalt will be ahead at 6am tomorrow by a smidgen, but will see his lead eroded by late mail ins.
Democrats likely to hold the Senate and while the GOP take the House it is with far fewer gains than they made in the 1994 and 2010 midterms and fewer too than the Democrats made in 2018
RN no longer have a Le Pen as leader for the first time.
I said it would be a narrow House loss but they would hold the Senate. Let’s see where things develop in the next few hours - Senate still on a knife edge but Dems must be slightly favoured at this stage.
Let's look at the scenario in more detail: the US stops giving any military aid to Ukraine. Europe and others still want Ukraine to win - because they are threatened by a Russian 'win'. Much of the US-supplied kit will become useless over time as ammunition and spares supplies decrease. But Ukraine still has vast numbers of ex-Soviet kit, both their own and captured.
So China says: "Hey, we will give you loads of ammo for that kit. And maybe new stuff. We'll send it over to Alexandroupoli." Europe then have two options: not to accept the help and transfer the kit to Ukraine, or to accept the help.
Unless there are massive strings attached, they will accept the help.
It's also interesting to think what such a move would mean geopolitcally. For instance, how would the African states who seem to be lukewarm, or siding towards Russia, act given China's presence inside Africa?
Again, I'm not saying this will happen; just that it is a possibility.
538 including Trafalgar (at an A rating!) is a serious error of judgement. They actually took them out in 2020 but Nate had a phone call with Cahaly and found him convincing enough to put back in.
Trafalgar polls are made up. Entirely of red flags.
This year Trafalgar really pushed the boat out in pouring out numbers.
Hats off to you, you have called this brilliantly
https://twitter.com/marisakabas/status/1590221626649759745
We simply love to see Dr. Oz, a man who didn’t know when the Steelers were on a bye, take an L on primetime
https://twitter.com/TheWilderThings/status/1590223075953774592
https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1590220564093886464
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1590247740243841024
Someone who has hardcore politics that I disagree with, democratically elected, is far superior to someone willing to subvert democracy even if you agree with their politics.
What I hadn't appreciated is that boundary changes actually favoured the Democrats this time, after State Supreme Courts struck down redistricting in Ohio and North Carolina.
He is like Boris in that respect, toxic to his opponents but reaches white working class voters no other conservative can too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/us/politics/trump-endorsements-midterms-gop.html
Rather better news it seems to be waking up to.
Hopefully GA can avoid a run-off. Looking tight there.
Other big bet is Biden for next President. I agree with @Pulpstar that those are crazy good odds.