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The betting as at 0417 GMT – politicalbetting.com

124

Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Ooh, big dump in Arizona governor, now 52% Hobbs 48% Lake, with 63% in. Was 55/45 a few mins ago.
  • Nevada (if it does go GOP) gets me out of a sizeable hole, so yes please.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited November 2022

    Dem lead in Nevada down to 5000 votes, lead in Vegas is only 28,000 with 84% counted. I favour a flip here.

    Ralston disagrees:

    "With Clark done for the day, and all three Dem House incumbents ahead, it seems that all three will win because the mail deluge should only increase their leads unless something really weird is going on."

    https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590262995543724032?s=20&t=_8SUQhpN8s43t9Aeq2oepA
    Hes talking about the three House races here. They all have mail ins from Clark left to count.
    Yes, my bad. But the same mail in effect applies to the Senate seat:

    "As of right now in Nevada Senate race:
    Clark: CCM+43K
    Washoe: CCM+2K
    Rurals: Laxalt+24K

    So CCM+21K

    That lead is going to shrink more, may evaporate tonight.

    But may be 100K in Clark mail to count, which will help all Dems."


    https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590248790153273345?s=20&t=bOeHTHA83SnrWkc3ozil-g
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited November 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dem lead in Nevada down to 5000 votes, lead in Vegas is only 28,000 with 84% counted. I favour a flip here.

    Still not enough for the GOP having lost Pennsylvania and with the Democrats leading in Arizona and Georgia
    Georgia will be a run off. Arizona should be Dem but the remaining votes will break fairly heavily Republican
    In Arizona Democrat incumbent Kelly has a big 15% lead with 49% in and has almost certainly been re elected.

    Warnock also leads in Georgia even if he fails to get over 50% as required to avoid a runoff
    And he starts again on zero at the run off. Its a fresh election.
    Kelly should win, but votes remainung will be heavily republican - his lead just halved
  • So the winner is DeSantis and the loser is Trump.

    Meanwhile the divided nation continues.
  • As of now, I think the Dems win AZ well and NV narrowly, and in GA they'll have the lead going to the run-off - although I have a feeling, given what's to count, that Warnock could just break the 50%.

    Not a good night for the Rs.

    Given how the economic picture should be changing for 2024, what price the Rs gain the Senate and the Ds take back the House?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Dem lead in Nevada down to 5000 votes, lead in Vegas is only 28,000 with 84% counted. I favour a flip here.

    Ralston disagrees:

    "With Clark done for the day, and all three Dem House incumbents ahead, it seems that all three will win because the mail deluge should only increase their leads unless something really weird is going on."

    https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590262995543724032?s=20&t=_8SUQhpN8s43t9Aeq2oepA
    Hes talking about the three House races here. They all have mail ins from Clark left to count.
    Yes, my bad. But the same mail in effect applies to the Senate seat:

    "As of right now in Nevada Senate race:
    Clark: CCM+43K
    Washoe: CCM+2K
    Rurals: Laxalt+24K

    So CCM+21K

    That lead is going to shrink more, may evaporate tonight.

    But may be 100K in Clark mail to count, which will help all Dems."


    https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590248790153273345?s=20&t=bOeHTHA83SnrWkc3ozil-g
    Yes but CCM doesnt have the lead the House guys do, its that bit tighter. It will be very close
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Deleted!
  • Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    This looks like it 'could' be another in a list of recent examples where pundits got it wrong.

    @rcs1000 called this right when he predicted the Dems would outperform the recent doomsday scenarios.

    And in the UK: I am certain that Labour's chances of an overall majority after 2024 are significantly underestimated by pundits. There's money to be made betting against the lemmings. But you need to know what you're doing and have nerves of steel.

    You really don’t need “nerves of steel”

    Just don’t bet more than you can afford to lose 😉

    I'm not sure the Spreads really work like that.

    I remember staying up two years ago and I studied carefully the results in Florida. Everyone was 'whoa the latino vote has gone Trump ergo Biden is toast.' But I mined into the suburbs and saw a subtle but vital swing to Biden there. Indebted to CNN for the hat-tip on that.

    So I went big on the Spreads for a Biden win. Against the markets. One of the most nerve-wracking nights of my life. But it paid off. Could-of lost big and was trembling in fear for a couple of hours. Won big.

    Thing about Spread betting is that you can come a cropper if you get it wrong.
    Spread betting is very painful if you get it wrong. I have dabbled in the past, but the potential liabilities are not comfortable for me. I have deleted my account.
    I bought Con seats at 385 in 2017. Not playing that game again!
    We were all burned by that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Too early to call these elections.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Based on Betfair odds I make probabilities of D win for Senate as:

    Arizona 89%
    Nevada 67%
    Georgia 59%

    Assuming independence this leads to the following:

    D win all three ie 51/49 D/R 35%
    D win 2/3 ie 50/50 46%
    D win 1 only ie 49/51 18%
    D win none ie 48/52 1%
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Morning all, so the early drums were wrong! Many interesting takeaways and the biggest one is FUCK OFF DONALD. Terrific news for America, the World and my Big Short.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited November 2022

    So the winner is DeSantis and the loser is Trump.

    Meanwhile the divided nation continues.

    As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.

    Biden now looks better placed to run again, Trump though likely faces a DeSantis challenge in the Republican primaries
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Sandpit said:

    Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.

    Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.

    The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
  • Barnesian said:

    Based on Betfair odds I make probabilities of D win for Senate as:

    Arizona 89%
    Nevada 67%
    Georgia 59%

    Assuming independence this leads to the following:

    D win all three ie 51/49 D/R 35%
    D win 2/3 ie 50/50 46%
    D win 1 only ie 49/51 18%
    D win none ie 48/52 1%

    That looks about right.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Nevada (if it does go GOP) gets me out of a sizeable hole, so yes please.

    Was your main bet not the House?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Andy_JS said:

    Too early to call these elections.

    We can call the House. That's Republican, with a majority of 11 - 17 seats.
  • Don’t underestimate the importance of these midterm results for Ukraine. With the Democrats outperforming expectations, probably holding the Senste, and Trumpite Republicans doing poorly, support for Ukraine might even solidify.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1590235499515772929
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all, so the early drums were wrong! Many interesting takeaways and the biggest one is FUCK OFF DONALD. Terrific news for America, the World and my Big Short.

    And Leon's team of whackos with tits are putting in a distinctly droopy performance
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    HYUFD said:

    So the winner is DeSantis and the loser is Trump.

    Meanwhile the divided nation continues.

    As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.

    Biden now looks better placed to run again, Trump though likely faces a DeSantis challenge in the Republican primaries
    Yes, but...They are better than the Democrats had feared. But the Republicans heavily overperformed expectations in 2020 in House and Senate.

    Were the Republicans coming into these elections with 180 House seats, and 45 Senate seats, which would be quite typical for a defeated party, this would look like a very good night.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Very likely.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all, so the early drums were wrong! Many interesting takeaways and the biggest one is FUCK OFF DONALD. Terrific news for America, the World and my Big Short.

    And Leon's team of whackos with tits are putting in a distinctly droopy performance
    Lake will probably win.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited November 2022
    Laxalt building a lead now, the Clark mail ins will need to be quite heavily skewed Democrat, maybe 70 - 30 will be enough.......
  • Good morning all!

    From a hospital bed, posting on an iPhone with just thumbs for control and dictating!
    Trust all well.
    Looks better in the states than we feared!

    You’re doing better than I did! When I was laid up it took me an age to work out how to use dictation - and when I did it garnered me “pardons” and funny looks from adjacent beds.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited November 2022
    Barnesian said:

    Based on Betfair odds I make probabilities of D win for Senate as:

    Arizona 89%
    Nevada 67%
    Georgia 59%

    Assuming independence this leads to the following:

    D win all three ie 51/49 D/R 35%
    D win 2/3 ie 50/50 46%
    D win 1 only ie 49/51 18%
    D win none ie 48/52 1%

    The Nevada odds don't look right to me. Not sure what punters are looking at there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.

    Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.

    The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
    Yes, so in all three marginal Senate seats still to call, the GOP candidate is performing notably worse than the GOP gubernatorial candidate on the same day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Too early to call these elections.

    We can call the House. That's Republican, with a majority of 11 - 17 seats.
    Which is nowhere near the wave they wanted, in 2010 midterms by contrast the Republicans won a majority of 49 and in 1994 midterms the GOP gained 54 House seats
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Good morning all!

    From a hospital bed, posting on an iPhone with just thumbs for control and dictating!
    Trust all well.
    Looks better in the states than we feared!

    Pre-op? Best of luck!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Eh - I think CCM wins Nevada, she's only a thousand or so behind and most of the remaining vote is Clark Mail ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    edited November 2022
    House counting leads:

    Dem 41 Rep 23

    If further counting doesn't net flip any races suggests end result around:

    Dem 214 Rep 221
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Eh - I think CCM wins Nevada, she's only a thousand or so behind and most of the remaining vote is Clark Mail ?
    14,000 behind now.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Based on Betfair odds I make probabilities of D win for Senate as:

    Arizona 89%
    Nevada 67%
    Georgia 59%

    Assuming independence this leads to the following:

    D win all three ie 51/49 D/R 35%
    D win 2/3 ie 50/50 46%
    D win 1 only ie 49/51 18%
    D win none ie 48/52 1%

    The Nevada odds don't look right to me. Not sure what punters are looking at there.
    GOP ahead in Nevada now
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Too early to call these elections.

    We can call the House. That's Republican, with a majority of 11 - 17 seats.
    Still backable at 1.07. Just done loads.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    edited November 2022
    Had a dabble of Dems for senate yesterday evening - 4 looked too long, but I thought might be value loser, had an eye to trade out if possible. No trading option when I went to bed, but just sold at 1.2 this morning (and I see it got even shorter overnight - I did think about leaving an offer of 2 open overnight, glad I didn't...). Dems look in with a decent shout, but I've taken my money, prefer that to a great value loser!

    (Smarkets market where Sanders and King are counted as Dem)

    ETA: Also shut down most of my bets on the next presidential election. All good there unless Trump wins in 2024, but I'm only a few £ in the red on that and, maybe it's optimismon my part, but I don't see it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited November 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Eh - I think CCM wins Nevada, she's only a thousand or so behind and most of the remaining vote is Clark Mail ?
    Shes 14,000 behind with 50 to 70,000 to count in Washoe, and probably about 8 to 10,000 advantage to Laxalt in the uncounted Lyon county
  • The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231
  • Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.

    Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.

    The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
    Yes, so in all three marginal Senate seats still to call, the GOP candidate is performing notably worse than the GOP gubernatorial candidate on the same day.
    Loony Trumpite candidate effect?

    Or Dobbs effect?

    Dobbs if it is in play as an issue, would affect the Senate far more than Governors.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Scott_xP said:

    This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1590258300725399552

    I find it amazing that conversation was not unlawful.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1590258300725399552

    I find it amazing that conversation was not unlawful.
    It was unlawful. Some people are just effectively above the law (most of the time).
  • Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
    The problem is the keyword "independent".

    If the US had our style boundary commission then it would still result in gerrymandering since one party or the other would manage to stuff the commission with their own cronies.

    People put far too much faith in "structures" being right, rather than an attitude of fair play and respect for democracy across the board being important regardless of structure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1590258300725399552

    I find it amazing that conversation was not unlawful.
    It definitely comes under “Think what this looks like, if someone writes it down and hands it to our opponent”.

    It may have been said playfully, rather than menacingly, but reads terribly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Eh - I think CCM wins Nevada, she's only a thousand or so behind and most of the remaining vote is Clark Mail ?
    Shes 14,000 behind with 50 to 70,000 to count in Washoe, and probably about 8 to 10,000 advantage to Laxalt in the uncounted Lyon county
    I'm blaming horrendously slow updating websites.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    I had wondered what happened to Ronald M[a]cDonald
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Eh - I think CCM wins Nevada, she's only a thousand or so behind and most of the remaining vote is Clark Mail ?
    Shes 14,000 behind with 50 to 70,000 to count in Washoe, and probably about 8 to 10,000 advantage to Laxalt in the uncounted Lyon county
    I'm blaming horrendously slow updating websites.
    I blame rural Nevadans
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Eh - I think CCM wins Nevada, she's only a thousand or so behind and most of the remaining vote is Clark Mail ?
    Shes 14,000 behind with 50 to 70,000 to count in Washoe, and probably about 8 to 10,000 advantage to Laxalt in the uncounted Lyon county
    I'm blaming horrendously slow updating websites.
    Laxalt 22,000 ahead now. 80% counted.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Eh - I think CCM wins Nevada, she's only a thousand or so behind and most of the remaining vote is Clark Mail ?
    Shes 14,000 behind with 50 to 70,000 to count in Washoe, and probably about 8 to 10,000 advantage to Laxalt in the uncounted Lyon county
    I'm blaming horrendously slow updating websites.
    I blame rural Nevadans
    Spending too much time in the Bunny Ranch!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Laxalt now ahead in Nevada Senate race.

    Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?

    Eh - I think CCM wins Nevada, she's only a thousand or so behind and most of the remaining vote is Clark Mail ?
    No mate 2.5 available on betfair
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In lighter news. Musk Twitter continues to be the dumbest timeline

    https://twitter.com/esthercrawford/status/1590109344976470016
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Rural Nevada vote has been utterly crushing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.

    Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.

    The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
    Yes, so in all three marginal Senate seats still to call, the GOP candidate is performing notably worse than the GOP gubernatorial candidate on the same day.
    Loony Trumpite candidate effect?

    Or Dobbs effect?

    Dobbs if it is in play as an issue, would affect the Senate far more than Governors.
    A combination of candidate choice, incumbency (in both directions), economy and social issues.

    The obvious place for the anti-Dobbs vote to go, would be State-level politicians, rather than Federal level.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    At least it is transparent. If you believe that UK politicians don't influence boundaries I have a bridge to sell you.
    They make representations, but they are addressed transparently. In my very Tory area the LD representation has largely been accepted over the Tory one.

    You are over egging it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.

    Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.

    The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
    Looking at the Georgia statewide elections, it seems Raffensberger is winning by the biggest margin. Standing up to (and being attacked by) Trump is a vote-winner for Republican candidates?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,118
    HYUFD said:


    As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.

    Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Williamson's gone, but questions about @RishiSunak's judgement haven't.
    And @BorisJohnson's very strange resignation honours list plan is a key test.

    The latest #WaughOnPolitics

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-risky-resignation-honours-plan-leaves-king-charles-in-a-difficult-position-1959049

    Includes this: The biggest ‘tell’ about Williamson's sacking will be if the PM decides he doesn’t need to replace him at all. If ever there was a job cobbled together to keep a pal happy, it was this: https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1590276781252440064/photo/1

    Also includes this: one source claimed Johnson told Liz Truss’s team (in jest or in seriousness) he would stay away from her first Tory party conference on one condition - that she allowed his whole resignation honours list to go forward. This is categorically denied by the ex-PM
  • Daily Express
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Telegraph


    Owen Jones
    Keir Starmer is a farcically two faced man, and however much his fans pretend otherwise, undeniable facts are undeniable facts. [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1590275680511885312

    Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Michigan - vs - Wisconsin state house race results will be highly illustrative for the difference between gerrymandered and non gerrymandered maps.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.

    .......you missed Bolsonaro
    An Le Pen, only a few months ago.
    Next stop Putin!
    Leon's political heart-throbs taking a beating.
    IMO, Le Pen, or her party will win next time in France. The cordon sanitaire has been well and truly broken, and RN are now established as the main party on the Right.
    Would you like a large bet on that? Say £500 at even money that Le Pen doesn't become President next time. The french don't have a history that would permit it unlike the italians or spanish
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1590258300725399552

    I find it amazing that conversation was not unlawful.
    It definitely comes under “Think what this looks like, if someone writes it down and hands it to our opponent”.

    It may have been said playfully, rather than menacingly, but reads terribly.
    The whole conversation though was inappropriate even if that comment was not 'serious.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708

    Hah! Another US election night when I go to bed thoroughly depressed and wake up to find it's a much more cheerful position in the morning. :-)

    That was not my experience in 2016! Perhaps the results are better than the Democrats feared but they ought to ask themselves why so many of their fellow citizens are voting for a party that seems to have largely gone batsh*t crazy. Shrugging your shoulders and concluding that half your fellow countrymen are mad isn't really a helpful answer.

    In other culture war stuff here's what's going on in Wales, specifically Gwynedd.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-63556776
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Alistair said:

    The Rural Nevada vote has been utterly crushing.

    Alistair said:

    The Rural Nevada vote has been utterly crushing.

    Governorship looks like its Lombardos, Senate will still be ultra tight after the Clark mail dump, although its not Fulton/De Kalb, the county is pretty close so far, 5% in it
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Nevada 1.82 GOP
    2.06 Dem
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Chuck Grassley, 89, who was born before the invention of the chocolate chip cookie, will serve another six (6) years in the Senate.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1590190507778793472


    On that note...
    I recently found out he was the reason we didn’t switch to the metric system in the 1970s when I was a kid.
    https://twitter.com/cathylanski/status/1441358967872147456
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    Alistair said:

    The Rural Nevada vote has been utterly crushing.

    I'm out of Nevada for a £21 loss. Horror show betting from myself. Fuck knows there.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    What's the takeaway from last night? I contend that if Trump had quietly retired from public life in mid-November 2020, the Republicans would now be looking at control of the Senate and a big lead in the House. Trump enthuses some of the base, but he loses them votes: directly or indirectly by backing terrible candidates.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1590258300725399552

    I find it amazing that conversation was not unlawful.
    It was probably unlawful and Trump may yet face charges.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
    Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1590258300725399552

    I find it amazing that conversation was not unlawful.
    It was probably unlawful and Trump may yet face charges.
    It's been years! And once he declares most of them won't dare touch him.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    pm215 said:

    HYUFD said:


    As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.

    Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
    I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.

    He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Donald Trump had expected to emerge from mid-terms as kingmaker. Looks more likely that he’s been a drag on Republican hopes. Interesting to see if that affects his supposed “major announcement” next week. Or even if it happens.

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1590264011064762368
  • Given that Beto O'Rourke has suffered another dismal defeat how soon will he start his 2024 Presidential campaign ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Kelly seems to be holding on in Az which means, I think, that a run off in Georgia will once again determine control of the Senate. It's a pretty cunning move for Georgia who will generate another $1bn of spending in the state for the second time in 2 cycles.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_xP said:

    Williamson's gone, but questions about @RishiSunak's judgement haven't.
    And @BorisJohnson's very strange resignation honours list plan is a key test.

    The latest #WaughOnPolitics

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-risky-resignation-honours-plan-leaves-king-charles-in-a-difficult-position-1959049

    Includes this: The biggest ‘tell’ about Williamson's sacking will be if the PM decides he doesn’t need to replace him at all. If ever there was a job cobbled together to keep a pal happy, it was this: https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1590276781252440064/photo/1

    Also includes this: one source claimed Johnson told Liz Truss’s team (in jest or in seriousness) he would stay away from her first Tory party conference on one condition - that she allowed his whole resignation honours list to go forward. This is categorically denied by the ex-PM

    The ex PM a tiny bit ambiguous there?
  • I think we’re looking at a 50/50 Senate either way now.

    If Dems win NV I think incentive to turn out in GA will be diminished and probably allow small GOP victory. But on the other hand if senate control hinges on it it will be easier to get Democrats back to the polls.
  • What's the takeaway from last night? I contend that if Trump had quietly retired from public life in mid-November 2020, the Republicans would now be looking at control of the Senate and a big lead in the House. Trump enthuses some of the base, but he loses them votes: directly or indirectly by backing terrible candidates.

    There's also a question about how much of an issue abortion was. Arguably the GOP would have adopted voter-repellent policies there with or without Trump.

    Yglesias points out that DeSantis took a fairly moderate position compared to a lot of other GOP candidates.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Based on Betfair odds I make probabilities of D win for Senate as:

    Arizona 89%
    Nevada 67%
    Georgia 59%

    Assuming independence this leads to the following:

    D win all three ie 51/49 D/R 35%
    D win 2/3 ie 50/50 46%
    D win 1 only ie 49/51 18%
    D win none ie 48/52 1%

    The Nevada odds don't look right to me. Not sure what punters are looking at there.
    They were a snap shot.

    Here is my latest snapshot

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    Has Trump declared his candidacy for 2024 yet?

    He-he-he......
  • Given that Beto O'Rourke has suffered another dismal defeat how soon will he start his 2024 Presidential campaign ?

    The dream of a Democratic Texas looks further away this morning.

    Florida is now a red state too, IMHO. No Democratic presidential candidate should use it as a path to 270 anymore.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Hobbs v Lake now 51/49.

    Kari Lake to be one of few Trump-supported candidates to win?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    DavidL said:

    Kelly seems to be holding on in Az which means, I think, that a run off in Georgia will once again determine control of the Senate. It's a pretty cunning move for Georgia who will generate another $1bn of spending in the state for the second time in 2 cycles.

    And delays the Betfair payout on that market.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Has Trump declared his candidacy for 2024 yet?

    He-he-he......

    Yesterday Trump was rated by the betting markets as having a 60% chance of securing the WH2024 Republican nomination. That's now dropped to below 40%. Chart @smarkets

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1590278524535181312/photo/1
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What's the takeaway from last night? I contend that if Trump had quietly retired from public life in mid-November 2020, the Republicans would now be looking at control of the Senate and a big lead in the House. Trump enthuses some of the base, but he loses them votes: directly or indirectly by backing terrible candidates.

    I've read that the Georgia exit poll (I know, I know) said that 70% of voters thought their personal finances were steady or improving over the last 2 years.

    There's a difference between the media screaming about a bad economy and what people are experiencing
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    geoffw said:

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.

    Would be very interesting reading, that report.

    If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Daily Express
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Telegraph


    Owen Jones
    Keir Starmer is a farcically two faced man, and however much his fans pretend otherwise, undeniable facts are undeniable facts. [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1590275680511885312

    Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..

    Something that some lefties can't get their head around even in 2022. You only get to change stuff if you are actually in power, even if it is more fun to be the only true leftie in the village.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    geoffw said:

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.

    Getting paid for writing a report stating that there are no good options, only differing degrees of bad ones, in respect of the currency if Scotland goes independent sounds like a really easy gig.

    The options are:
    (a) Stick with sterling. Almost inevitable really but it means we lose all control or influence over interest rates, monetary policy and have very little room in respect of borrowing as those countries using the US dollar have found.
    (b) have a new Scottish currency. Would cause disruption in trading relations to rUK. Serious risks of depreciation, higher interest rates and tighter budgets until central bank credibility has been established.
    (c) Join the Euro. Similar problems to (a) and (b) combined with the additional issue that we don't qualify for membership atm given our structural deficit and it is not in our gift.

    Hope it didn't take Ronnie too long.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited November 2022
    Alistair said:

    What's the takeaway from last night? I contend that if Trump had quietly retired from public life in mid-November 2020, the Republicans would now be looking at control of the Senate and a big lead in the House. Trump enthuses some of the base, but he loses them votes: directly or indirectly by backing terrible candidates.

    I've read that the Georgia exit poll (I know, I know) said that 70% of voters thought their personal finances were steady or improving over the last 2 years.

    There's a difference between the media screaming about a bad economy and what people are experiencing
    Going to be very interesting to see what that looks like in 2024.
    That will have far more influence on the result than whether it's Trump or DeSantis / Biden or someone else.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In 2020 Biden won Washoe by 50.82%/46.31%

    Currently the GOP Senate challenger is winning 46.85%/50.60%
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.

    Getting paid for writing a report stating that there are no good options, only differing degrees of bad ones, in respect of the currency if Scotland goes independent sounds like a really easy gig.

    The options are:
    (a) Stick with sterling. Almost inevitable really but it means we lose all control or influence over interest rates, monetary policy and have very little room in respect of borrowing as those countries using the US dollar have found.
    (b) have a new Scottish currency. Would cause disruption in trading relations to rUK. Serious risks of depreciation, higher interest rates and tighter budgets until central bank credibility has been established.
    (c) Join the Euro. Similar problems to (a) and (b) combined with the additional issue that we don't qualify for membership atm given our structural deficit and it is not in our gift.

    Hope it didn't take Ronnie too long.
    If (c) is the plan, it requires (b) as an interim solution, specifically ruling out (a) from the day of independence.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,791

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
    Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
    "Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
  • Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
    Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
    "Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
    Only the number of them silly, not the actual person.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    edited November 2022
    Could Lauren Boebart lose in CO3 ?

    She's 1.8% behind after 93% counted.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited November 2022

    Could Lauren Boebart lose on CO3 ?

    She's 1.8% behind after 93% counted.

    Shes toast i think
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570
    Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.

    One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.

    That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.

    I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
    American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.

    Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?

    the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
    We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
    Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
    "Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
    Maybe we assign them proportionate to overall average turnout - everyone comes out and votes and you get a "bonus" MP from the list. Not enough enthusiasm shown for any of the candidate pool, and you just get your baseline for the region.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    geoffw said:

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.

    Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.


    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231

    Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.

    Would be very interesting reading, that report.

    If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
    Paid for by the Greens, so no.
This discussion has been closed.