Dem lead in Nevada down to 5000 votes, lead in Vegas is only 28,000 with 84% counted. I favour a flip here.
Ralston disagrees:
"With Clark done for the day, and all three Dem House incumbents ahead, it seems that all three will win because the mail deluge should only increase their leads unless something really weird is going on."
Dem lead in Nevada down to 5000 votes, lead in Vegas is only 28,000 with 84% counted. I favour a flip here.
Still not enough for the GOP having lost Pennsylvania and with the Democrats leading in Arizona and Georgia
Georgia will be a run off. Arizona should be Dem but the remaining votes will break fairly heavily Republican
In Arizona Democrat incumbent Kelly has a big 15% lead with 49% in and has almost certainly been re elected.
Warnock also leads in Georgia even if he fails to get over 50% as required to avoid a runoff
And he starts again on zero at the run off. Its a fresh election. Kelly should win, but votes remainung will be heavily republican - his lead just halved
As of now, I think the Dems win AZ well and NV narrowly, and in GA they'll have the lead going to the run-off - although I have a feeling, given what's to count, that Warnock could just break the 50%.
Not a good night for the Rs.
Given how the economic picture should be changing for 2024, what price the Rs gain the Senate and the Ds take back the House?
Dem lead in Nevada down to 5000 votes, lead in Vegas is only 28,000 with 84% counted. I favour a flip here.
Ralston disagrees:
"With Clark done for the day, and all three Dem House incumbents ahead, it seems that all three will win because the mail deluge should only increase their leads unless something really weird is going on."
Good thread on why it is in the USA's interests to keep arming Ukraine - taking Russia back decades as an offensive force, allowing the US to focus on China, which currently has an asymmetric advantage in only having one front.
This looks like it 'could' be another in a list of recent examples where pundits got it wrong.
@rcs1000 called this right when he predicted the Dems would outperform the recent doomsday scenarios.
And in the UK: I am certain that Labour's chances of an overall majority after 2024 are significantly underestimated by pundits. There's money to be made betting against the lemmings. But you need to know what you're doing and have nerves of steel.
You really don’t need “nerves of steel”
Just don’t bet more than you can afford to lose 😉
I'm not sure the Spreads really work like that.
I remember staying up two years ago and I studied carefully the results in Florida. Everyone was 'whoa the latino vote has gone Trump ergo Biden is toast.' But I mined into the suburbs and saw a subtle but vital swing to Biden there. Indebted to CNN for the hat-tip on that.
So I went big on the Spreads for a Biden win. Against the markets. One of the most nerve-wracking nights of my life. But it paid off. Could-of lost big and was trembling in fear for a couple of hours. Won big.
Thing about Spread betting is that you can come a cropper if you get it wrong.
Spread betting is very painful if you get it wrong. I have dabbled in the past, but the potential liabilities are not comfortable for me. I have deleted my account.
I bought Con seats at 385 in 2017. Not playing that game again!
Morning all, so the early drums were wrong! Many interesting takeaways and the biggest one is FUCK OFF DONALD. Terrific news for America, the World and my Big Short.
As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.
Biden now looks better placed to run again, Trump though likely faces a DeSantis challenge in the Republican primaries
Don’t underestimate the importance of these midterm results for Ukraine. With the Democrats outperforming expectations, probably holding the Senste, and Trumpite Republicans doing poorly, support for Ukraine might even solidify.
Morning all, so the early drums were wrong! Many interesting takeaways and the biggest one is FUCK OFF DONALD. Terrific news for America, the World and my Big Short.
And Leon's team of whackos with tits are putting in a distinctly droopy performance
As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.
Biden now looks better placed to run again, Trump though likely faces a DeSantis challenge in the Republican primaries
Yes, but...They are better than the Democrats had feared. But the Republicans heavily overperformed expectations in 2020 in House and Senate.
Were the Republicans coming into these elections with 180 House seats, and 45 Senate seats, which would be quite typical for a defeated party, this would look like a very good night.
Morning all, so the early drums were wrong! Many interesting takeaways and the biggest one is FUCK OFF DONALD. Terrific news for America, the World and my Big Short.
And Leon's team of whackos with tits are putting in a distinctly droopy performance
From a hospital bed, posting on an iPhone with just thumbs for control and dictating! Trust all well. Looks better in the states than we feared!
You’re doing better than I did! When I was laid up it took me an age to work out how to use dictation - and when I did it garnered me “pardons” and funny looks from adjacent beds.
Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.
Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.
The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
Yes, so in all three marginal Senate seats still to call, the GOP candidate is performing notably worse than the GOP gubernatorial candidate on the same day.
We can call the House. That's Republican, with a majority of 11 - 17 seats.
Which is nowhere near the wave they wanted, in 2010 midterms by contrast the Republicans won a majority of 49 and in 1994 midterms the GOP gained 54 House seats
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
Had a dabble of Dems for senate yesterday evening - 4 looked too long, but I thought might be value loser, had an eye to trade out if possible. No trading option when I went to bed, but just sold at 1.2 this morning (and I see it got even shorter overnight - I did think about leaving an offer of 2 open overnight, glad I didn't...). Dems look in with a decent shout, but I've taken my money, prefer that to a great value loser!
(Smarkets market where Sanders and King are counted as Dem)
ETA: Also shut down most of my bets on the next presidential election. All good there unless Trump wins in 2024, but I'm only a few £ in the red on that and, maybe it's optimismon my part, but I don't see it.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.
Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.
The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
Yes, so in all three marginal Senate seats still to call, the GOP candidate is performing notably worse than the GOP gubernatorial candidate on the same day.
Loony Trumpite candidate effect?
Or Dobbs effect?
Dobbs if it is in play as an issue, would affect the Senate far more than Governors.
This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.
This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
The problem is the keyword "independent".
If the US had our style boundary commission then it would still result in gerrymandering since one party or the other would manage to stuff the commission with their own cronies.
People put far too much faith in "structures" being right, rather than an attitude of fair play and respect for democracy across the board being important regardless of structure.
This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.
Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.
The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
Yes, so in all three marginal Senate seats still to call, the GOP candidate is performing notably worse than the GOP gubernatorial candidate on the same day.
Loony Trumpite candidate effect?
Or Dobbs effect?
Dobbs if it is in play as an issue, would affect the Senate far more than Governors.
A combination of candidate choice, incumbency (in both directions), economy and social issues.
The obvious place for the anti-Dobbs vote to go, would be State-level politicians, rather than Federal level.
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
At least it is transparent. If you believe that UK politicians don't influence boundaries I have a bridge to sell you.
They make representations, but they are addressed transparently. In my very Tory area the LD representation has largely been accepted over the Tory one.
Nevada governor is a clear GOP gain now, 2% up while the Senate is a dead heat.
Same discrepancy in Arizona, where Lake is a couple of points up compared to her Senate counterpart.
The discrepancy in Georgia is huge. If the Republicans had selected a candidate who isn't a shit, they'd have been home and dry there by now.
Looking at the Georgia statewide elections, it seems Raffensberger is winning by the biggest margin. Standing up to (and being attacked by) Trump is a vote-winner for Republican candidates?
As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.
Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
Includes this: The biggest ‘tell’ about Williamson's sacking will be if the PM decides he doesn’t need to replace him at all. If ever there was a job cobbled together to keep a pal happy, it was this: https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1590276781252440064/photo/1
Also includes this: one source claimed Johnson told Liz Truss’s team (in jest or in seriousness) he would stay away from her first Tory party conference on one condition - that she allowed his whole resignation honours list to go forward. This is categorically denied by the ex-PM
Not as historic as this day in 1989, but if it sees the end of Trump then today is an important day. Johnson, Truss and Trump all seen off in just a few months! Crazy politics hits the wall.
.......you missed Bolsonaro
An Le Pen, only a few months ago. Next stop Putin!
Leon's political heart-throbs taking a beating.
IMO, Le Pen, or her party will win next time in France. The cordon sanitaire has been well and truly broken, and RN are now established as the main party on the Right.
Would you like a large bet on that? Say £500 at even money that Le Pen doesn't become President next time. The french don't have a history that would permit it unlike the italians or spanish
This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.
Hah! Another US election night when I go to bed thoroughly depressed and wake up to find it's a much more cheerful position in the morning. :-)
That was not my experience in 2016! Perhaps the results are better than the Democrats feared but they ought to ask themselves why so many of their fellow citizens are voting for a party that seems to have largely gone batsh*t crazy. Shrugging your shoulders and concluding that half your fellow countrymen are mad isn't really a helpful answer.
In other culture war stuff here's what's going on in Wales, specifically Gwynedd.
Governorship looks like its Lombardos, Senate will still be ultra tight after the Clark mail dump, although its not Fulton/De Kalb, the county is pretty close so far, 5% in it
What's the takeaway from last night? I contend that if Trump had quietly retired from public life in mid-November 2020, the Republicans would now be looking at control of the Senate and a big lead in the House. Trump enthuses some of the base, but he loses them votes: directly or indirectly by backing terrible candidates.
This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
This was the man who stood in the way when Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump phoned him personally to demand he “find me another 11,000 votes”.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.
As of now the winner is arguably Biden who has just had the best midterms of an incumbent President for his party since George W Bush in 2002 and far better than Clinton had in 1994 or Obama had in 2010.
Yeah, this is definitely a good result for him. But how much credit will he get from the rest of his party if he narrowly loses both senate and house anyway? As with polling errors, people tend to care more about the headline outcome than the margin of error...
I suspect the Democrats will hold the Senate now.
He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
Donald Trump had expected to emerge from mid-terms as kingmaker. Looks more likely that he’s been a drag on Republican hopes. Interesting to see if that affects his supposed “major announcement” next week. Or even if it happens.
Kelly seems to be holding on in Az which means, I think, that a run off in Georgia will once again determine control of the Senate. It's a pretty cunning move for Georgia who will generate another $1bn of spending in the state for the second time in 2 cycles.
Includes this: The biggest ‘tell’ about Williamson's sacking will be if the PM decides he doesn’t need to replace him at all. If ever there was a job cobbled together to keep a pal happy, it was this: https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1590276781252440064/photo/1
Also includes this: one source claimed Johnson told Liz Truss’s team (in jest or in seriousness) he would stay away from her first Tory party conference on one condition - that she allowed his whole resignation honours list to go forward. This is categorically denied by the ex-PM
I think we’re looking at a 50/50 Senate either way now.
If Dems win NV I think incentive to turn out in GA will be diminished and probably allow small GOP victory. But on the other hand if senate control hinges on it it will be easier to get Democrats back to the polls.
What's the takeaway from last night? I contend that if Trump had quietly retired from public life in mid-November 2020, the Republicans would now be looking at control of the Senate and a big lead in the House. Trump enthuses some of the base, but he loses them votes: directly or indirectly by backing terrible candidates.
There's also a question about how much of an issue abortion was. Arguably the GOP would have adopted voter-repellent policies there with or without Trump.
Yglesias points out that DeSantis took a fairly moderate position compared to a lot of other GOP candidates.
Kelly seems to be holding on in Az which means, I think, that a run off in Georgia will once again determine control of the Senate. It's a pretty cunning move for Georgia who will generate another $1bn of spending in the state for the second time in 2 cycles.
Yesterday Trump was rated by the betting markets as having a 60% chance of securing the WH2024 Republican nomination. That's now dropped to below 40%. Chart @smarkets
What's the takeaway from last night? I contend that if Trump had quietly retired from public life in mid-November 2020, the Republicans would now be looking at control of the Senate and a big lead in the House. Trump enthuses some of the base, but he loses them votes: directly or indirectly by backing terrible candidates.
I've read that the Georgia exit poll (I know, I know) said that 70% of voters thought their personal finances were steady or improving over the last 2 years.
There's a difference between the media screaming about a bad economy and what people are experiencing
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.
Would be very interesting reading, that report.
If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..
Something that some lefties can't get their head around even in 2022. You only get to change stuff if you are actually in power, even if it is more fun to be the only true leftie in the village.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.
Getting paid for writing a report stating that there are no good options, only differing degrees of bad ones, in respect of the currency if Scotland goes independent sounds like a really easy gig.
The options are: (a) Stick with sterling. Almost inevitable really but it means we lose all control or influence over interest rates, monetary policy and have very little room in respect of borrowing as those countries using the US dollar have found. (b) have a new Scottish currency. Would cause disruption in trading relations to rUK. Serious risks of depreciation, higher interest rates and tighter budgets until central bank credibility has been established. (c) Join the Euro. Similar problems to (a) and (b) combined with the additional issue that we don't qualify for membership atm given our structural deficit and it is not in our gift.
What's the takeaway from last night? I contend that if Trump had quietly retired from public life in mid-November 2020, the Republicans would now be looking at control of the Senate and a big lead in the House. Trump enthuses some of the base, but he loses them votes: directly or indirectly by backing terrible candidates.
I've read that the Georgia exit poll (I know, I know) said that 70% of voters thought their personal finances were steady or improving over the last 2 years.
There's a difference between the media screaming about a bad economy and what people are experiencing
Going to be very interesting to see what that looks like in 2024. That will have far more influence on the result than whether it's Trump or DeSantis / Biden or someone else.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.
Getting paid for writing a report stating that there are no good options, only differing degrees of bad ones, in respect of the currency if Scotland goes independent sounds like a really easy gig.
The options are: (a) Stick with sterling. Almost inevitable really but it means we lose all control or influence over interest rates, monetary policy and have very little room in respect of borrowing as those countries using the US dollar have found. (b) have a new Scottish currency. Would cause disruption in trading relations to rUK. Serious risks of depreciation, higher interest rates and tighter budgets until central bank credibility has been established. (c) Join the Euro. Similar problems to (a) and (b) combined with the additional issue that we don't qualify for membership atm given our structural deficit and it is not in our gift.
Hope it didn't take Ronnie too long.
If (c) is the plan, it requires (b) as an interim solution, specifically ruling out (a) from the day of independence.
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
"Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
"Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
Only the number of them silly, not the actual person.
There was quite a lot of talk of dodgy Republican-leaning polls being released in the run-up to the vote in order to demotivate Democratic voters and to create stolen election narratives for losing GOP candidates. That looks like it could well have happened.
One possible outcome if this is not the expected Red Wave is that it may give Republicans pause for thought. Maybe the rush to the anti-democratic, conspiracist, far-right is to as smart as it looked a week ago.
That said, if they now control the election process in key swing states they can probably do as they wish.
I think the case to be made with those people is not the “you’re proposing something morally wrong” case but rather the self interested “eventually the other side will win and do it to you” case.
American politicians don’t seem to understand the concept of being morally wrong, they see everything through the lens of gaining partisan advantage.
Is there any other first-world country that lets politicians micro-manage the process of the elections themselves - not just the boundaries (they even coined a word for that!), but details such as the locations and opening hours of individual polling stations?
the US States really need a boundary commission and an electoral commission, in the same way as in the UK. A handful of States have the former, but politicians don’t want to give up the power they have.
We actually managed okay without the Electoral Commission. You just need an independent boundary commission.
Do STV by some natural boundary like the county. Then you don't need a boundary commission either, you just assign MPs to each seat with a mathematical formula, like the US does to assign House representatives to states.
"Assigning MPs to seats" sounds less than perfectly democratic.
Maybe we assign them proportionate to overall average turnout - everyone comes out and votes and you get a "bonus" MP from the list. Not enough enthusiasm shown for any of the candidate pool, and you just get your baseline for the region.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of burying a report which warned of “disastrous” currency options for an independent Scotland.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
Ronnie, who was a u/g student of mine in the mid-1970s, has long been a leading authority on international and monetary economics. The Scottish Greens did well to commission the report from him, unpalatable as it turned out for them. Their argument now, that the changes - i.e. Brexit, the Tories etc - since 2014 are sufficient to justify their current policy stance, is hollow.
Would be very interesting reading, that report.
If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
Comments
"As of right now in Nevada Senate race:
Clark: CCM+43K
Washoe: CCM+2K
Rurals: Laxalt+24K
So CCM+21K
That lead is going to shrink more, may evaporate tonight.
But may be 100K in Clark mail to count, which will help all Dems."
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590248790153273345?s=20&t=bOeHTHA83SnrWkc3ozil-g
Kelly should win, but votes remainung will be heavily republican - his lead just halved
Meanwhile the divided nation continues.
Not a good night for the Rs.
Given how the economic picture should be changing for 2024, what price the Rs gain the Senate and the Ds take back the House?
https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1589616874387800065
Arizona 89%
Nevada 67%
Georgia 59%
Assuming independence this leads to the following:
D win all three ie 51/49 D/R 35%
D win 2/3 ie 50/50 46%
D win 1 only ie 49/51 18%
D win none ie 48/52 1%
Biden now looks better placed to run again, Trump though likely faces a DeSantis challenge in the Republican primaries
Do we end up with one GOP gain here, and one Dem gain in PA, so everything is again down to the Georgia runoff?
From a hospital bed, posting on an iPhone with just thumbs for control and dictating!
Trust all well.
Looks better in the states than we feared!
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1590235499515772929
Were the Republicans coming into these elections with 180 House seats, and 45 Senate seats, which would be quite typical for a defeated party, this would look like a very good night.
Dem 41 Rep 23
If further counting doesn't net flip any races suggests end result around:
Dem 214 Rep 221
(Smarkets market where Sanders and King are counted as Dem)
ETA: Also shut down most of my bets on the next presidential election. All good there unless Trump wins in 2024, but I'm only a few £ in the red on that and, maybe it's optimismon my part, but I don't see it.
Ronald MacDonald, the academic who wrote the dossier, said he presumed his report was never released because Patrick Harvie’s party “didn’t like the conclusions”.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-greens-buried-damning-report-28439231
Or Dobbs effect?
Dobbs if it is in play as an issue, would affect the Senate far more than Governors.
If the US had our style boundary commission then it would still result in gerrymandering since one party or the other would manage to stuff the commission with their own cronies.
People put far too much faith in "structures" being right, rather than an attitude of fair play and respect for democracy across the board being important regardless of structure.
It may have been said playfully, rather than menacingly, but reads terribly.
https://twitter.com/esthercrawford/status/1590109344976470016
The obvious place for the anti-Dobbs vote to go, would be State-level politicians, rather than Federal level.
You are over egging it.
And @BorisJohnson's very strange resignation honours list plan is a key test.
The latest #WaughOnPolitics
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-risky-resignation-honours-plan-leaves-king-charles-in-a-difficult-position-1959049
Includes this: The biggest ‘tell’ about Williamson's sacking will be if the PM decides he doesn’t need to replace him at all. If ever there was a job cobbled together to keep a pal happy, it was this: https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1590276781252440064/photo/1
Also includes this: one source claimed Johnson told Liz Truss’s team (in jest or in seriousness) he would stay away from her first Tory party conference on one condition - that she allowed his whole resignation honours list to go forward. This is categorically denied by the ex-PM
Daily Mail
Sun
Telegraph
Owen Jones
Keir Starmer is a farcically two faced man, and however much his fans pretend otherwise, undeniable facts are undeniable facts. [VIDEO]
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1590275680511885312
Of course, Starmer might be a politician who wants to get elected…..
In other culture war stuff here's what's going on in Wales, specifically Gwynedd.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-63556776
2.06 Dem
https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1590190507778793472
On that note...
I recently found out he was the reason we didn’t switch to the metric system in the 1970s when I was a kid.
https://twitter.com/cathylanski/status/1441358967872147456
He also can then unite the party behind him as the GOP heads to a Trump v De Santis civil war
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1590264011064762368
If Dems win NV I think incentive to turn out in GA will be diminished and probably allow small GOP victory. But on the other hand if senate control hinges on it it will be easier to get Democrats back to the polls.
Yglesias points out that DeSantis took a fairly moderate position compared to a lot of other GOP candidates.
Here is my latest snapshot
He-he-he......
Florida is now a red state too, IMHO. No Democratic presidential candidate should use it as a path to 270 anymore.
Kari Lake to be one of few Trump-supported candidates to win?
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1590251791450443776?s=20&t=jAKTJ_TPvaELKT-ESDiXJw
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1590278524535181312/photo/1
There's a difference between the media screaming about a bad economy and what people are experiencing
If it was paid for with Scottish Govt. money, can it not be the subject of a Freedom of Information request?
The options are:
(a) Stick with sterling. Almost inevitable really but it means we lose all control or influence over interest rates, monetary policy and have very little room in respect of borrowing as those countries using the US dollar have found.
(b) have a new Scottish currency. Would cause disruption in trading relations to rUK. Serious risks of depreciation, higher interest rates and tighter budgets until central bank credibility has been established.
(c) Join the Euro. Similar problems to (a) and (b) combined with the additional issue that we don't qualify for membership atm given our structural deficit and it is not in our gift.
Hope it didn't take Ronnie too long.
That will have far more influence on the result than whether it's Trump or DeSantis / Biden or someone else.
Currently the GOP Senate challenger is winning 46.85%/50.60%
She's 1.8% behind after 93% counted.