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Defection watch – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone was asking for a definition of Woke-ism the other day.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1586676603823742981

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    "Woke" or radical progressivism erodes liberalism bc

    1 elevates group over individual, we are no more than fixed race/sex/gender ID groups
    2 elevates 'lived experience' over scientific method & curtails free speech
    3 not just critical but cynical of ways of life that unite us
    Quote Tweet
    John Pavlovitz
    @johnpavlovitz
    ·
    Oct 26
    Using "woke" as a pejorative term is an iron-clad tell that you lack human empathy and find other's suffering of no concern.

    Prove me wrong.
    11:09 AM · Oct 30, 2022
    ·Twitter Web App"

    Goodwin is an exceptionally shallow thinker, isn't he? What a load of garbage. I thought standards at British universities were meant to be high.
    He’s someone who defines himself against the prevailing norms. That can sometimes be valuable, but not when you just slip into the other lot of mirror image prevailing norms on the other side of the culture wars, which he does.

    On a very not related topic, having just listened twice through the Now 90s Dancefloor compendium I am confident that the greatest dance anthem of all time is, despite strong competition from the likes of Urban Cookie Collective, “Set You Free” by N-Trance. Transcendent.

    Said compilation album is a treasure trove. Dr Alban, Haddaway, Faithless, Underworld, 2 unlimited. They’re all there.
    Not so sure I agree with your first sentence. Surely Goodwin's anti-wokeism is in line with the prevailing norms, rather than against them?
    He defines himself against what he sees as the prevailing norms. To be fair in academia he will definitely be an outlier.

    But more importantly what about N-Trance?
    I have just watched/listened on YouTube. Yes, a good track, but a bit safe.

    In the video, I particularly enjoyed the bit where Ms Trance flails out of the side window of the car.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Nigelb said:

    Nostalgia trip.

    A vintage “Encyclopedia Britannica” Commercial from 1988
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/58920207

    I'd love to own a complete set.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)
  • Hopefully you can see this:

    https://imgur.com/a/hR8Xy40

    The blue line is Lula's second round lead, as we head towards 100% counted.

    You can see that Lula MIGHT be caught by the grey line. The grey line is his lead in the first round.

    To lose, Lula would have to be caught by the yellow line.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited October 2022

    Is there an English language channel on which I can watch the Brazilian election?

    I don't know but it's annoying that YouTube seem to have disabled live subtitles translated into other languages. I used to watch election night programmes in foreign languages and be able to follow them because of the subtitles.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7RjmSHZsGk
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    In later years a lot of the Founding Fathers wanted to abolish the electoral collage. Madison hated it. But they were stymied by the fact they had made it so hard to get Constitutional Amendments passed.

    They were mostly a big bunch of idiots who failed to spot the very obvious flaws in the systems they were creating.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone was asking for a definition of Woke-ism the other day.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1586676603823742981

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    "Woke" or radical progressivism erodes liberalism bc

    1 elevates group over individual, we are no more than fixed race/sex/gender ID groups
    2 elevates 'lived experience' over scientific method & curtails free speech
    3 not just critical but cynical of ways of life that unite us
    Quote Tweet
    John Pavlovitz
    @johnpavlovitz
    ·
    Oct 26
    Using "woke" as a pejorative term is an iron-clad tell that you lack human empathy and find other's suffering of no concern.

    Prove me wrong.
    11:09 AM · Oct 30, 2022
    ·Twitter Web App"

    Goodwin is an exceptionally shallow thinker, isn't he? What a load of garbage. I thought standards at British universities were meant to be high.
    He’s someone who defines himself against the prevailing norms. That can sometimes be valuable, but not when you just slip into the other lot of mirror image prevailing norms on the other side of the culture wars, which he does.

    On a very not related topic, having just listened twice through the Now 90s Dancefloor compendium I am confident that the greatest dance anthem of all time is, despite strong competition from the likes of Urban Cookie Collective, “Set You Free” by N-Trance. Transcendent.

    Said compilation album is a treasure trove. Dr Alban, Haddaway, Faithless, Underworld, 2 unlimited. They’re all there.
    Not so sure I agree with your first sentence. Surely Goodwin's anti-wokeism is in line with the prevailing norms, rather than against them?
    He defines himself against what he sees as the prevailing norms. To be fair in academia he will definitely be an outlier.

    But more importantly what about N-Trance?
    I have just watched/listened on YouTube. Yes, a good track, but a bit safe.

    In the video, I particularly enjoyed the bit where Ms Trance flails out of the side window of the car.
    She was apparently a friend of theirs at university. They asked her to film it driving around Nottingham.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    edited October 2022
    Espirito Santo, 98% counted, Bolsonaro 58%, 63% in 2018

    Tocantins, 97% counted, B 49%, 49% 2018.

    Lula very close to crossover but his rate of advance seems to be slowing?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    In later years a lot of the Founding Fathers wanted to abolish the electoral collage. Madison hated it. But they were stymied by the fact they had made it so hard to get Constitutional Amendments passed.

    They were mostly a big bunch of idiots who failed to spot the very obvious flaws in the systems they were creating.
    I think the durability of the system even with its flaws for so long is pretty remarkable honestly.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Bolsano out to 10 on Betfair

    Presume the Oracle of Norfolk @wooliedyed is shovelling on?
  • Hopefully you can see this:

    https://imgur.com/a/hR8Xy40

    The blue line is Lula's second round lead, as we head towards 100% counted.

    You can see that Lula MIGHT be caught by the grey line. The grey line is his lead in the first round.

    To lose, Lula would have to be caught by the yellow line.

    Really useful thanks. Looks like Lula will end up very close to the grey line doesn't it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724

    Phillips P. OBrien
    @PhillipsPOBrien
    ·
    7h
    Far more important, is the Russian hope that the US midterm elections bring Republican control to both the House and the Senate. Such a victory, but a party still dominated by its Trumpist core, would provide real hope for an eventual reduction in US support for Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1586715642375331844
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    An aspiring pedant asks, wouldn't it be unenfrancised rather than disenfranchised?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    In later years a lot of the Founding Fathers wanted to abolish the electoral collage. Madison hated it. But they were stymied by the fact they had made it so hard to get Constitutional Amendments passed.

    They were mostly a big bunch of idiots who failed to spot the very obvious flaws in the systems they were creating.
    That’s a bit harsh - they were pioneers and it’s difficult to get it right first time. The amendment issue is the one they messed up on - although I understand why they did it (we forget that the federal government is the subordinate of the states)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    edited October 2022


    Following the Google results link I get to this page. This looks different to what’s being discussed here. What’s the discrepancy?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    In later years a lot of the Founding Fathers wanted to abolish the electoral collage. Madison hated it. But they were stymied by the fact they had made it so hard to get Constitutional Amendments passed.

    They were mostly a big bunch of idiots who failed to spot the very obvious flaws in the systems they were creating.
    I think the durability of the system even with its flaws for so long is pretty remarkable honestly.
    I mean. If you ignore the whole part where the very obviously flaws lead to the Civil War that was predicted to happen and the ugly political compromises that were made in the wake of that war as durable then sure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    Most people generally, and its certainly true here as well, are unaware of their constitutional history, as you suggest. Those who want want to change it may well be more aware than most, so a distinction would be needed I think between those who argue X should be the case in ignorance of the system deliberately being set up for reason Y, and those who argue X should be the case because they do not agree with reason Y.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022
    Crossover in votes counted.
    67.8% votes in.
    Lula 50.01 %.
    Bolsonaro 49.99 %.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
  • Jonathan said:



    Following the Google results link I get to this page. This looks different to what’s being discussed here. What’s the discrepancy?

    Those are the figures I'm using.
  • Lula has 50.01%
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe it's going to be closer than we thought.

    https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1586824630232391684

    Something seems wrong about using the approach to project but I can't quite put my finger on it.

    EDIT: got it, it's going to favour the smaller Bolsonaro heavy areas for the moment which he is doing well in. I think this projection is going to swing heavily.
    If it's swing based, surely that's less of a concern. For Bolsonaro to overtake Lula, he logically wins votes everywhere.
    I think it's Minas Gerais that highlights my issues

    B won it 58/42 in 2018. It's currently 50/50 which "logically" seems really bad for him.
    But at the start of the month he got 43.5% there so by patrickjfl that's really good for him.
    If we look at swing since the first round about 7 states seem to be showing enough to Bolsonaro for him to win. Minas Gerais is one of those showing a swing to him but not quite enough. Then there are a few (perhaps 8 or 9) showing a swing to Lula.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    Most people generally, and its certainly true here as well, are unaware of their constitutional history, as you suggest. Those who want want to change it may well be more aware than most, so a distinction would be needed I think between those who argue X should be the case in ignorance of the system deliberately being set up for reason Y, and those who argue X should be the case because they do not agree with reason Y.
    Most arguments in this case are just “X got more votes than Y!!! It’s wrong Y is president! Evil Republicans!”


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    In the interests of absolute pedantry:

    What is now Washington DC was in fact carved out of Maryland, although the original district did include an area in Virginia.
  • Lula now under his first round lead, at this stage. But still good enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited October 2022
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    In later years a lot of the Founding Fathers wanted to abolish the electoral collage. Madison hated it. But they were stymied by the fact they had made it so hard to get Constitutional Amendments passed.

    They were mostly a big bunch of idiots who failed to spot the very obvious flaws in the systems they were creating.
    I think the durability of the system even with its flaws for so long is pretty remarkable honestly.
    I mean. If you ignore the whole part where the very obviously flaws lead to the Civil War that was predicted to happen and the ugly political compromises that were made in the wake of that war as durable then sure.
    I'm not ignoring it at all - a political system surviving a major civil war, and some pretty major changes to it as a result (and indeed some other changes over the years), yet maintaining systemic continuity, is pretty unusual I'd say.

    Think how many countries have entirely new constitutions, different legislative systems, heads of state and government, or complete system breakdown and collapse, across a 250 year period.

    I think most people would agree there are and always have been some major flaws in the US system, and some major ructions (to put it mildly), but for a pretty short series of documents pulled together at the start and some bolted on adjustments of various sizes over the years, the system is still quite recognizable from its foundation, even though it is different.

    That seems pretty durable to me. What you raise is not an issue of durability, but system flaws, which is not the same thing. The Roman Empire was pretty durable too, and its flaws led to far more disruption and chaos.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    It was also not expected that any voters would live there permanently. It was assumed a few gentlemen would turn up, conduct their business and sod off while slaves and/or women kept the houses from falling down.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    Pretty daft that the US is still in thrall to the slave owners’ compromises.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    Maybe it used to have a very small population compared to now.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    StillWaters said: "It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia."

    Actually pieces were carved out of both Virginia and Maryland, and in 1846 Virginia piece was returned in a "retrocession".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
  • Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    In later years a lot of the Founding Fathers wanted to abolish the electoral collage. Madison hated it. But they were stymied by the fact they had made it so hard to get Constitutional Amendments passed.

    They were mostly a big bunch of idiots who failed to spot the very obvious flaws in the systems they were creating.
    I think the durability of the system even with its flaws for so long is pretty remarkable honestly.
    I mean. If you ignore the whole part where the very obviously flaws lead to the Civil War that was predicted to happen and the ugly political compromises that were made in the wake of that war as durable then sure.
    I'm not ignoring it at all - a political system surviving a major civil war, and some pretty major changes to it as a result (and indeed some other changes over the years), yet maintaining systemic continuity, is pretty unusual I'd say.

    Think how many countries have entirely new constitutions, different legislative systems, heads of state and government, or complete system breakdown and collapse, across a 250 year period.

    I think most people would agree there are and always have been some major flaws in the US system, and some major ructions (to put it mildly), but for a pretty short series of documents pulled together at the start and some bolted on adjustments of various sizes over the years, the system is still quite recognizable from its foundation, even though it is different.

    That seems pretty durable to me. What you raise is not an issue of durability, but system flaws, which is not the same thing. The Roman Empire was pretty durable too, and its flaws led to far more disruption and chaos.
    Isn't that what we're complaining about?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    edited October 2022

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    He's into 1.05 are you tempted to cash out?

    Gut feeling he ends up somewhere around 51%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    About the same as me...

    So. To lay or not?
  • Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    He's into 1.05 are you tempted to cash out?

    Gut feeling he ends up somewhere around 51%.
    Not really. I've updated the data 87 times, 85 of them had Lula going forwards. The other two were at the start. He's on an 85-streak.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
  • The extra hour coming in handy here. If this were 11pm, with work tomorrow, I would be cashing out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    In later years a lot of the Founding Fathers wanted to abolish the electoral collage. Madison hated it. But they were stymied by the fact they had made it so hard to get Constitutional Amendments passed.

    They were mostly a big bunch of idiots who failed to spot the very obvious flaws in the systems they were creating.
    I think the durability of the system even with its flaws for so long is pretty remarkable honestly.
    I mean. If you ignore the whole part where the very obviously flaws lead to the Civil War that was predicted to happen and the ugly political compromises that were made in the wake of that war as durable then sure.
    I'm not ignoring it at all - a political system surviving a major civil war, and some pretty major changes to it as a result (and indeed some other changes over the years), yet maintaining systemic continuity, is pretty unusual I'd say.

    Think how many countries have entirely new constitutions, different legislative systems, heads of state and government, or complete system breakdown and collapse, across a 250 year period.

    I think most people would agree there are and always have been some major flaws in the US system, and some major ructions (to put it mildly), but for a pretty short series of documents pulled together at the start and some bolted on adjustments of various sizes over the years, the system is still quite recognizable from its foundation, even though it is different.

    That seems pretty durable to me. What you raise is not an issue of durability, but system flaws, which is not the same thing. The Roman Empire was pretty durable too, and its flaws led to far more disruption and chaos.
    Isn't that what we're complaining about?
    Certainly I think treating constitutional fudges of the 1770s and 80s as holy writ (but only if your interpretation of them fits your political agenda) is not helpful.

    I extol the virtues of our own messed up arrangements over the US's all the time. But I think so much of the early stuff still being in there is impressive in respect of the drafters, even if we disagree with what's in there.
  • Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    He's into 1.05 are you tempted to cash out?

    Gut feeling he ends up somewhere around 51%.
    Not really. I've updated the data 87 times, 85 of them had Lula going forwards. The other two were at the start. He's on an 85-streak.
    Well, respect due. And to Balrog.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    Most people generally, and its certainly true here as well, are unaware of their constitutional history, as you suggest. Those who want want to change it may well be more aware than most, so a distinction would be needed I think between those who argue X should be the case in ignorance of the system deliberately being set up for reason Y, and those who argue X should be the case because they do not agree with reason Y.
    Most arguments in this case are just “X got more votes than Y!!! It’s wrong Y is president! Evil Republicans!”
    Well, it has the virtue of simplicity I guess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited October 2022

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote (indeed almost identical to Lula's current popular voteshare in Brazil)
  • Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
    Not enough!

    +£376

    (cash out £269)
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Lula 50.29% with 79% in.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote
    You're missing the point, as usual. The point is that a tiny number of voters in the context of the whole election can swing the entire result, regardless of the overall popular vote.

    The size of victory in the EC is irrelevant to the result.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited October 2022

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    As DC says, cashing out might be a good choice. But DYOR.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    In the interests of absolute pedantry:

    What is now Washington DC was in fact carved out of Maryland, although the original district did include an area in Virginia.
    In the interests of absolutist fundamental pedantry…

    Nowhere did I say that Virginia was the *only* state that ceded territory to create the District…

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote
    You're missing the point, as usual. The point is that a tiny number of voters in the context of the whole election can swing the entire result, regardless of the overall popular vote.
    Much like our FPTP but with 54 constituencies (I think).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    My prediction from yesterday of Lula 51% is looking pretty good at the moment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
    Not enough!

    +£376

    (cash out £269)
    Great work 👏
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    Andy_JS said:

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    As DC says, cashing out might be a good choice. But DYOR.
    He has done his own research.

    My research was to ask him about his research.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited October 2022

    Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
    Not enough!

    +£376

    (cash out £269)
    Great work 👏
    Not there yet! Watching it all the way.

    (Checks BF rules)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote
    You're missing the point, as usual. The point is that a tiny number of voters in the context of the whole election can swing the entire result, regardless of the overall popular vote.
    Much like our FPTP but with 54 constituencies (I think).
    True, although the size of victory (in terms of seats) does matter in our system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote
    You're missing the point, as usual. The point is that a tiny number of voters in the context of the whole election can swing the entire result, regardless of the overall popular vote.

    The size of victory in the EC is irrelevant to the result.
    Well so what, neither Clinton nor Gore got over 50% of the popular vote unlike Biden.

    If there is no clear popular vote mandate, the EC ensures the winner reflects the view of the majority of US states, not just what the most populous coasts think
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    So Lula's going to win then?
    I've been out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Lots of votes still to come from Rio and Sao Paulo where Bolsonaro is ahead.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/oct/30/brazil-election-2022-live-results-lula-bolsonaro-runoff
  • Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday of Lula 51% is looking pretty good at the moment.

    Lula added quite a lot from this point in the 1st round. But he is now definitely underperforming that.

    51 to 53% all seems possible.

    Not a knockout...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Well, this will repair my Cons leadership election Mk2 loss.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote
    You're missing the point, as usual. The point is that a tiny number of voters in the context of the whole election can swing the entire result, regardless of the overall popular vote.

    The size of victory in the EC is irrelevant to the result.
    Well so what, neither Clinton nor Gore got over 50% of the popular vote unlike Biden.

    If there is no clear popular vote mandate, the EC ensures the winner reflects the view of the majority of US states, not just what the most populous coasts think
    What usually matters in a democracy is the view of the majority of people, not arbitrary lines on a map.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    500 roadblocks set up by Brazilian Police despite them being prohibited.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    Most people generally, and its certainly true here as well, are unaware of their constitutional history, as you suggest. Those who want want to change it may well be more aware than most, so a distinction would be needed I think between those who argue X should be the case in ignorance of the system deliberately being set up for reason Y, and those who argue X should be the case because they do not agree with reason Y.
    Most arguments in this case are just “X got more votes than Y!!! It’s wrong Y is president! Evil Republicans!”
    Well, it has the virtue of simplicity I guess.
    Most of the protagonists could easily drop the first two sentences to make it even simpler
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    In the interests of absolute pedantry:

    What is now Washington DC was in fact carved out of Maryland, although the original district did include an area in Virginia.
    In the interests of absolutist fundamental pedantry…

    Nowhere did I say that Virginia was the *only* state that ceded territory to create the District…

    Here's what you said:

    'a little piece was carved out of Virginia'

    Which is true, but misleading. Because the main piece was carved out of Maryland.
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207

    Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
    Not enough!

    +£376

    (cash out £269)
    I make 1006 if I win. Or looks like about 900 locked in if I put some money on Bolsenaro
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    50.41% for Lula with 85% in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    FYI re the betting for the midterms (which seems to be remarkably absent on this site), not good news for the Democrats

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fewer-young-people-are-voting-early-a-danger-sign-for-democrats/ar-AA13uVyI

    The warning signals are piling up here. My gut feel is the GOP will probably end up getting around 54 in the Senate (NV, AZ, GA eventually + 1 'shock' of NH/WA/CO), which is 8/1. If you don't want that, then the majority is 8/15 - a bit boring but probably safe-ish money given Johnson looks to be consolidating his lead in WI and Fetterman blew up last week in the PA debate so you would only need one win elsewhere.

    I expect the Republicans will make gains, but struggle to see much betting value to tempt me.

    America is such a crazy place politically that I struggle to comprehend it now.

    I read that 8 out of the last 9 presidential elections (or perhaps 7 out of 8) were democratic majorities.

    It’s only gerrymandering that keeps the Republicans in power.
    Please engage your brain (meant in the nicest possible way). You, of course, know the results below:

    1976-80: Dem x1
    1980-92: GOP x3
    92-00: Dem x2
    00-08: GOP x2
    08-16: Dem x 2
    16-20: GOP x1
    20-24: Dem x1

    Unless you start claiming the electoral
    college doesn’t count and therefore the
    GOP are gerrymandering the claim doesn’t stand.

    I haven’t checked the popular vote numbers but I suspect that Hillary beating Trump on popular vote is the claim they are making.

    Assuming the electoral college and popular vote lines up in all other cases, the Dems win 6 out of the last 8 contests.

    Edit: h/t @Alistair Id forgotten Gore won the popular vote
    The electoral college IS a gerrymander - the smaller Republican states get far more electors per head of population.
    No - a gerrymander is changing the boundaries of a voting district to favour one side or the other.

    The electoral college members are selected based on a formula that (I think) is the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators. Because the number of Senators is always two
    regardless of size this favours the
    smaller states. But it’s not a gerrymander.
    It's amazing it still needs to be explained re the Senate.

    Each state having two Senators was a deliberate move by the Founding Fathers to ensure that the smaller states had some sort of firewall against being dominated by the large populous states.

    So, yes, it's entirely designed to make sure it is NOT representative of population (the Senate not the EC votes).

    Sure. But most partisans who advance the popular vote argument are relying on the bulk of people not being aware of their constitutional history
    Most people generally, and its certainly true here as well, are unaware of their constitutional history, as you suggest. Those who want want to change it may well be more aware than most, so a distinction would be needed I think between those who argue X should be the case in ignorance of the system deliberately being set up for reason Y, and those who argue X should be the case because they do not agree with reason Y.
    Most arguments in this case are just “X got more votes than Y!!! It’s wrong Y is president! Evil Republicans!”
    Well, it has the virtue of simplicity I guess.
    Most of the protagonists could easily drop the first two sentences to make it even simpler
    That's be more a script for a weekly political comedy show.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday of Lula 51% is looking pretty good at the moment.

    It may even end up 52-48 ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited October 2022
    dixiedean said:

    So Lula's going to win then?
    I've been out.

    Probably but at the moment it is heading for the closest Brazilian Presidential election since the end of military rule in 1985, so don't expect Bolsonaro to concede anytime soon
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction from yesterday of Lula 51% is looking pretty good at the moment.

    Lula added quite a lot from this point in the 1st round. But he is now definitely underperforming that.

    51 to 53% all seems possible.

    Not a knockout...
    Countdown to Donald Trump claiming that Bolsonaro was robbed...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    17m
    Replying to
    @Samfr
    Lula ahead in the raw vote count now. Shouldn't be anyway back for Bolsonaro. Still 🤞🤞
  • Balrog said:

    Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
    Not enough!

    +£376

    (cash out £269)
    I make 1006 if I win. Or looks like about 900 locked in if I put some money on Bolsenaro
    A win worthy of the name of the site!
  • Can I just say how pleasant it was not to have a weekend full of Conservative party leadership speculation. Is it too much to wish for a period of calm before the inevitable Winter crises?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    Balrog said:

    Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
    Not enough!

    +£376

    (cash out £269)
    I make 1006 if I win. Or looks like about 900 locked in if I put some money on Bolsenaro
    Superb!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited October 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote
    You're missing the point, as usual. The point is that a tiny number of voters in the context of the whole election can swing the entire result, regardless of the overall popular vote.

    The size of victory in the EC is irrelevant to the result.
    Well so what, neither Clinton nor Gore got over 50% of the popular vote unlike Biden.

    If there is no clear popular vote mandate, the EC ensures the winner reflects the view of the majority of US states, not just what the most populous coasts think
    What usually matters in a democracy is the view of the majority of people, not arbitrary lines on a map.
    The Founding Fathers were also seeking to reduce the risk of civil war or the breakup of the Union, which if smaller states get consistently ignored would be a stronger possibility.

    Most democracies are also representative not direct democracies, otherwise majority opinions on the death penalty and high taxes on the rich would get more weight
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    I'm heading for a win of the grand total of £1.36 on the Brazilian election. Can't remember placing any bets but evidently I did at some point.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    All over.

    Cashed out and going to bed.

    Well done to @Balrog and @TheWhiteRabbit
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207

    Balrog said:

    Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
    Not enough!

    +£376

    (cash out £269)
    I make 1006 if I win. Or looks like about 900 locked in if I put some money on Bolsenaro
    A win worthy of the name of the site!
    I can't remember who it was that recommended the bet about ten days ago. I know pretty much nothing about Brazil.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm heading for a win of the grand total of £1.36 on the Brazilian election. Can't remember placing any bets but evidently I did at some point.

    Live it large!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Fun US fact. Through the entire life of the USA the Size of the House of Representatives increased as the population increased (wee blip around the Civil war). Every census was followed by an expansion of the chamber.



    Until the start of the 1900s. At that point they stopped voting to expand the chamber. By amazing coincidence that was the first census to show more Americas living in Urban areas that Rural areas.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    The Electoral College is a deeply silly system, but fun. It’s the ultimate political nerd’s real-life board game.

    It’s even less sensible than FPP, because under FPP you are actually electing MPs, rather than mere tokens towards a magical 538 winning post.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    50.50% i.e. 1.0% lead with 88.3% counted.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote
    You're missing the point, as usual. The point is that a tiny number of voters in the context of the whole election can swing the entire result, regardless of the overall popular vote.

    The size of victory in the EC is irrelevant to the result.
    Well so what, neither Clinton nor Gore got over 50% of the popular vote unlike Biden.

    If there is no clear popular vote mandate, the EC ensures the winner reflects the view of the majority of US states, not just what the most populous coasts think
    What usually matters in a democracy is the view of the majority of people, not arbitrary lines on a map.
    The Founding Fathers were also seeking to reduce the risk of civil war or the breakup of the Union, which if smaller states get consistently ignored would be a stronger possibility
    Back when the nation was about the States, not the federal government. The federal government is now much more powerful than ever envisaged, so really what the Founding Fathers thought is not relevant.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    This 2nd round feels a lot like Pennsylvania 2020 just not as extreme on the betting market (where Trump was strong favourite as the votes were being counted).
  • New president thread

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    A day early, but who are we to quibble...



  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm heading for a win of the grand total of £1.36 on the Brazilian election. Can't remember placing any bets but evidently I did at some point.

    Congratters!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS asked: "Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?"

    "In his Federalist No. 43, published January 23, 1788, James Madison argued that the new federal government would need authority over a national capital to provide for its own maintenance and safety.[21] The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783, emphasized the need for the national government not to rely on any state for its own security."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

    (I favor reducing the federal district to the smallest practical size, by returning almost all of the district to Maryland.)

    I do like that the answer appears to basically be about lack of trust and cobbling together solutions. Given how robust the nation and its identity became, it would be easy to forget how big a gamble the whole business of nation building can be!
    The US system makes sense in the context of non-centralised powerful state government. However the power of the federal government in the modern age makes the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college pretty stark.
    In 2020 there wasn't much discrepancy, in fact if anything it was for Biden.

    Biden won 56% of EC votes but only 51.3% of the popular vote
    You're missing the point, as usual. The point is that a tiny number of voters in the context of the whole election can swing the entire result, regardless of the overall popular vote.

    The size of victory in the EC is irrelevant to the result.
    Well so what, neither Clinton nor Gore got over 50% of the popular vote unlike Biden.

    If there is no clear popular vote mandate, the EC ensures the winner reflects the view of the majority of US states, not just what the most populous coasts think
    What usually matters in a democracy is the view of the majority of people, not arbitrary lines on a map.
    The Founding Fathers were also seeking to reduce the risk of civil war or the breakup of the Union, which if smaller states get consistently ignored would be a stronger possibility
    Back when the nation was about the States, not the federal government. The federal government is now much more powerful than ever envisaged, so really what the Founding Fathers thought is not relevant.
    Actually for most Americans their state government has more influence on their local health and education and police systems than the Federal government and also now on abortion too.

    The Federal government's biggest powers relate to Foreign Policy and Defence and the tax and spend share the Federal Government takes
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    A day early, but who are we to quibble...



    Christmas came early this year too 🤗

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/16384321/tory-mp-reveals-shes-bisexual/

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    In the interests of absolute pedantry:

    What is now Washington DC was in fact carved out of Maryland, although the original district did include an area in Virginia.
    In the interests of absolutist fundamental pedantry…

    Nowhere did I say that Virginia was the *only* state that ceded territory to create the District…

    Here's what you said:

    'a little piece was carved out of Virginia'

    Which is true, but misleading. Because the main piece was carved out of Maryland.
    The art of true pedantry… find a small fact and cling fast…
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    In the interests of absolute pedantry:

    What is now Washington DC was in fact carved out of Maryland, although the original district did include an area in Virginia.
    In the interests of absolutist fundamental pedantry…

    Nowhere did I say that Virginia was the *only* state that ceded territory to create the District…

    Here's what you said:

    'a little piece was carved out of Virginia'

    Which is true, but misleading. Because the main piece was carved out of Maryland.
    The art of true pedantry… find a small fact and cling fast…
    We’re they half way up Virginia at the time, before giving ground? 🤭

    Apologies I’ve been out to a fancy dress party and so tipsy I should log out and back away before banned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    And Maryland?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    DougSeal said:

    Leon/SeanT/MissyG/whoever is a nasty, racist, horrible bully and when he comes on the site the quality drops quickly. I now actively avoid the site when he is around.

    Got to say I think you are comprehensively wrong in this assessment. I don't recognise any of what you claim about him. He is forthright and does a fine line in abuse but he is no bully. He doesn't expect anyone to be cowed by his postings and delights in people fighting back against him. I would suggest that it is undeniable that he is an asset to this site even though I disagree with him on the majority of what he posts.
    I am sorry to say Richard, when he starts on with his autism narratives, I politely disagree on account of my son's ASD only to be bombarded with abuse regarding my humourless wokery. He is unbearably unpleasant when he rides that particular rodeo.

    I am convinced he is an internet troll. In reality, possibly a dreary Librarian and Lib Dem Parish Councillor called Colin from Bromyard, rather than the exotic travel writer and novelist
    he claims to be.
    I don’t think he’s a travel writer. It’s all part of this online persona he’s constructed. And the terrible quality of his prose discounts the idea that he’s a published writer. He’s doubtless someone from somewhere dreary in the Home Counties living a fantasy.

    You are either a joker or as thick as you make out you are.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    In the interests of absolute pedantry:

    What is now Washington DC was in fact carved out of Maryland, although the original district did include an area in Virginia.
    In the interests of absolutist fundamental pedantry…

    Nowhere did I say that Virginia was the *only* state that ceded territory to create the District…

    Here's what you said:

    'a little piece was carved out of Virginia'

    Which is true, but misleading. Because the main piece was carved out of Maryland.
    The art of true pedantry… find a small fact and cling fast…
    We’re they half way up Virginia at the time, before giving ground? 🤭
    You're charge is that this is a nitpickett.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    After the 23rd amendment was ratified in 1961, Washington, D.C. got three votes in the electoral college. (One unfortunate consequence of this is that ties are now possible.)

    Why was Washington DC disenfranchised in the first place?
    It’s not a state, just a district. The reason was that having the capital in any state would give that state undue power, so a little piece was carved out of Virginia

    (IIRC it was a deal that Hamilton did with Virgina to get their support for the federal reserve system. Such is politics 😳)
    In the interests of absolute pedantry:

    What is now Washington DC was in fact carved out of Maryland, although the original district did include an area in Virginia.
    In the interests of absolutist fundamental pedantry…

    Nowhere did I say that Virginia was the *only* state that ceded territory to create the District…

    Here's what you said:

    'a little piece was carved out of Virginia'

    Which is true, but misleading. Because the main piece was carved out of Maryland.
    The art of true pedantry… find a small fact and cling fast…
    We’re they half way up Virginia at the time, before giving ground? 🤭
    You're charge is that this is a nitpickett.
    Did you mean to reply to StillWater - I was just the drunk doing smutty jokes.
This discussion has been closed.