"The former Prime Minister is even considering making public visits to some of the Red Wall seats that swept him to power to highlight the ongoing need to 'level up'.
He is also set to spend time in Washington to maintain pressure on the Biden administration to keep up its support for Ukraine.
Sources said he is also completing a planned biography of Shakespeare and is beginning preparation for writing his own memoirs."
Mail
That's more work than he's put in in the rest of his life put together. And. If he thinks he'll be greeted with flowers here... although any visit will,.of course, be secret.
Trying to be as dispassionate as possible about the plethora of UK opinion polling today, those with earliest fieldwork (Wednesday) have biggest Labour leads (up to 32 points) but those polling yesterday and today have Labour leads of 24-26 points.
The Conservative poll rating has improved to 25-27% (it's hardly surprising given the remarkable sub-20% numbers seen in the last days of the Truss debacle. To be fair, I suspect it got to a point where people were embarrassed to confess they supported the Conservatives given the seemingly endless vitriol and self-inflicted disasters which characterised much of late September and early-mid October.
Labour's poll rating remains around or just above 50% - an extraordinary number (Cameron's Conservatives managed only one poll with a rating above 50% for example). Even with the 24 point leads recorded by Techne and Survation, Labour has majorities in excess of 300 and the Conservatives end up with fewer than 100 seats (add in tactical voting and it's nearer 50 seats) which would be historically poor.
And yet, as we all know, this means nothing - the election isn't going to be until mid 2024 at the earliest and possibly not until October 17th 2024 (well, it's my prediction FWIW).
That means Sunak has two years to turn this round - that's a tall order but given the volatility in the electorate not completely impossible. The position is probably equivalent to 1995 when Major defeated Redwood or perhaps 1968 when the Conservatives routed Labour in London.
The forthcoming financial statement by Hunt will be fascinating. With supply-side tax cuts discredited, Prudence is back and staying in the Presidential Suite. The re-balancing of the public finances and the reduction in the deficit (along with the management of debt) are going to be the key measures. Interest rates will rise and that will be a shock to a generation who have never known anything but rock-bottom rates and for those who have taken on property debt it's going to be a real shock.
I don't think the coming winter will be as dystopic as some suggest but I think NHS stories will be much in evidence and few will show Government in a good light (even where it's not clear what Government can and should do). These stories and experiences do permeate the public consciousness and traditionally the notion Labour are the only party which truly cares about the NHS and its staff will get an airing (as we've seen today public attitudes toward the Government's handling of the NHS can be very hostile)
As I said above, Liz Truss for next PM. You’ll thank me later!
Sunak would have to take the Tories down to 5% for Truss to have any chance and even then Boris would be more likely
You underestimate her. It’s clear that the events of the last two months were gamed in advance. She’s playing 4D Chess while the rest of us are struggling at Snakes and Ladders. Truss operates at levels of sophistication well above the rest of us and I advise betting accordingly.
What gives you the idea that it's losing steam? It wasn't obvious from the article you posted. These sort of errors are slow burn. It's about tarnishing his brand which has happened already. It's not a Hancock more a Johnson or a Patterson.
Certainly the media narrative in general has changed since Sunak’s coronation - no mention of Sue Ellen today, no politics at all really apart from a dear bit of flak on Sunak for ignoring cop 27.
does absence of politics from the media narrative now help or hinder the Tory fight back?
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
I don't think it makes any difference to the purpose of selling the bonds, which is to take money out of the economy, whether they are sold at a loss or not.
Then the only question is how much money you want to take out of the economy and how quickly. With inflation at 10% I can see the argument for taking more money out of the economy more quickly, but I guess we'll see in a year or two whether the Bank is acting too quickly or not.
But today's inflation is a supply-side shock of imports costing dramatically more than they did, due to a global supply shock, due to a global shortage of fuel that we need to pay at global rates, not too much money in the local economy chasing too few local goods.
In these circumstances, taking money out at a cost to the taxpayer, rather than letting it expire at no cost, and rather than an interest rate rise which would help strengthen Sterling and reduce imported inflation, seems a rather perverse way of either tackling inflation or managing the economy.
If you let the debts expire and don't replace them it's still QT, just at a slower rate.
The Bank is clearly concerned that the jolt to inflation from the supply shock has rippled through the economy and become entrenched, thus requiring higher interest rates and QT to control. As the year has gone on I've tended more to that view, but who can be sure until we see it all play out?
I also tend to think that the policies implemented by the government to help people deal with the inflation produced by the supply shock is itself inflationary, and this has to be taken into account.
The Bank is so "concerned" that the rate rises its been putting in place have been shockingly puny and less than the Fed's, which is hammering Sterling, and thus making inflation worse.
Moderate QT via natural expirations, which is what other comparable CBs are doing, doesn't cost the taxpayer billions selling at a loss and putting up rates addresses the inflation issue, both imported and internal.
If it was putting up interest rates at a serious rate then perhaps we should be talking about selling bonds, but it hasn't. It is consistently waiting until after the Fed and then doing less than that.
QT and interest rates are both valid ways to control inflation. We might well find out that the Bank's more balanced approach, of using more QT instead of relying solely on interest rates, ends up producing a better outcome.
I don't know. But I'm fairly confident that looking at whether the bonds are sold at a loss or not is the wrong way to work out whether it's the right approach.
The problem with the Bank's approach is that the overwhelming majority of the inflation is imported, and imported inflation is worse if Sterling falls, better if Sterling rises. Putting up rates by less than the Fed makes Sterling fall which means anything priced in dollars (which is everything significantly affected by inflation) more expensive and increases inflation.
Other than the fact the Bank, alone in the world AFAIK, are actively selling gilts at a cost to taxpayers and putting up rates by less than the Fed - what reason is there to think its a good idea? I can not think of a single other Central Bank, anywhere in the world, that is doing that.
Looking at whether bonds are sold at a loss is relevant but not the only reason to think its a terrible idea. The fact that the inflation is imported and that rate rises sub-Fed levels makes Sterling fall and makes the inflation much worse is the bigger problem.
So the taxpayers are paying to pay for gilts to be sold at a loss, while inflation isn't tackled as rates aren't up as much as Fed rates. Why? How is that good?
To answer your questions. To agree with you, The Sunak government and the BoE are running scared from the consequences of interest rate increases in UK. The markets being nice at the moment is portrayed as Hunt and Sunak as great lion tamers, but the truth is the markets are becalmed because they expect 5% interest rates and higher gilts, the very thing the Sunak government is hiding under the desk scared of - anyone who isn’t expecting shit to hit fan very soon is totally deluded.
A couple of your points I do disagree with. The pound falling is actually inflationary. And all the QE of recent years, it’s impossible to do any of that without it being inflationary - it’s there in our social economy, stock markets, house prices etc
A few things:
1. The Fed / The Biden Administration doesn't care what happens with the rest of the world, their focus is on the US and specifically the Midterms. So running our interest rate policy as a slave to US political considerations is not a great way. By the way, the Bank of Japan has been doing the opposite and reducing interest rates (but they needed inflation).
2. There is a major difference between the US and UK mortgage markets in that US mortgages are typically 30 year fixed while UK ones are 2/3/5. Hence the panic here amongst homeowners about rising rates but not in the US, where rates have gone higher. Put them up to US levels and you would have a bloodbath.
3. As BR says, the inflation is imported but it's actually, in a number of cases, an artificial case since the prices of many commodities in $ terms is falling. The problem is because of the strength of the $, the £ cost is not coming down.
The simplest thing would be for the Fed / the Administration to stop jacking up interest rates to show they are doing something before the midterms.
I disagree with the tone of your post. I think you are belittling the situation the UK government and BoE are in, and granting them too much choice how to proceed.
I would be first to agree the USA is a different DNA so we would be foolish to copy their policy solutions - your brilliant example of the contrast in mortgage markets is one of many good examples which can explain it. But we arn’t pushing up our own rates over the coming six months to 4%+ to copy the USA - we actually have no choice, that is no choice to give the market the interest rate it wants because of the risk from the basket case asking it for money - a country that’s got into its mess through its own mistakes, not breaking its addiction to low rates and too much QE quickly enough in recent years.
Which brings me to disagree with 3. The degree we imported this inflation, to the degree it’s our own creation. That low interest rates and QE for twenty years didn’t come for free after all.
I think you guys are getting confused on inflation.
Consumer Price Inflation has been largely imported this time. Interest rates will have some direct impact by deflating demand but also through the exchange rate mechanism
Asset Price Inflation (equity and property valuations has been driven by QE. QT will address this… it will help bring house prices down…)
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
"The former Prime Minister is even considering making public visits to some of the Red Wall seats that swept him to power to highlight the ongoing need to 'level up'.
He is also set to spend time in Washington to maintain pressure on the Biden administration to keep up its support for Ukraine.
Sources said he is also completing a planned biography of Shakespeare and is beginning preparation for writing his own memoirs."
Mail
That's more work than he's put in in the rest of his life put together. And. If he thinks he'll be greeted with flowers here... although any visit will,.of course, be secret.
What I am loving is how Truss has retrospectively shat on him and tainted what was left of his rep. Because I no longer distinguish them, I think of them as the boznliz debacle.
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
Can anyone guess where this is?
Edit: sorry no idea how to flip it!
Australia?
For the photo, your camera was upside down when taking it. Even if you rotate on a pc and save, that info gets retained. Best fix is (a) take landscape photos with your phone the other way and for this one (b) paste into something like word, power point etc and re save as jpg.
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Partucularly enjoying people @ ing Parag to remove 'twitter CEO' from his bio as it is 'disinformation' lolz
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
"The former Prime Minister is even considering making public visits to some of the Red Wall seats that swept him to power to highlight the ongoing need to 'level up'.
He is also set to spend time in Washington to maintain pressure on the Biden administration to keep up its support for Ukraine.
Sources said he is also completing a planned biography of Shakespeare and is beginning preparation for writing his own memoirs."
Mail
That's more work than he's put in in the rest of his life put together. And. If he thinks he'll be greeted with flowers here... although any visit will,.of course, be secret.
What I am loving is how Truss has retrospectively shat on him and tainted what was left of his rep. Because I no longer distinguish them, I think of them as the boznliz debacle.
The whole Liz Truss episode now seems more like a dream rather than anything that actually happened. And not one of the good dreams like the one where I beat Sinead O'Connor at 501 with a nine dart finish.
The disjointed and oneirological character of Truss's 44 days will greatly help the tories in gaslighting the country that it never happened. We went straight from the Lord of Misrule to Will from the Inbetweeners. That's the line.
Nose tells me to stay out of the Brazil 2nd round on Sunday, despite the nominally attractive price on Lula de Silva.
Tips? What's attractive in US midterms? I've been eyeing up republicans on 51 or 52 seats in the senate.
If the GOP take the Senate as well as the House, the odds of a Trump return to the White House in 2024 also increase significantly
I see the logic of that, but actually think losing House and Senate tends to help the Democrats hold the Presidency in 2024. There will be a lot of House/Senate clashes in those circumstances, and Biden is rather well placed to sit above the fray, using the veto as required.
It would, however, boost Trump for GOP nomination. Whereas losing one or (much less likely) both would undermine his position having been so pivotal in endorsements.
If Trump does get the nomination, if both Chambers of Congress are GOP in 2024 as they were not in 2020 he also has a much better chance of overturning even an EC loss via Congress
That would be very, very bad. It is almost impossible to quantify how bad that would be HY.
No. It’s all employment at will. In fact, so long as people have less than two years service and you’re prepared to pay their notice in lieu, you can do that here. Unless you’re doing it to 20 or more people - when it gets complicated.
Don't understand the logic of laying off the data engineering team first. I would think they are somewhat more vital to the business operating than, say, marketing.
No. It’s all employment at will. In fact, so long as people have less than two years service and you’re prepared to pay their notice in lieu, you can do that here. Unless you’re doing it to 20 or more people - when it gets complicated.
Just wait till we get rid of all those anti-growth eu workers rights.
Musk is already firing teams of people at Twitter HQ:
@YasminKhorram "It's somewhere I worked at for 6 years and everything suddenly changed."
Twitter data engineering team leaving the HQ after being laid off today.
I feel sorry for the people laid off, but it's a good first step by Musk. Twitter is grossly bloated, and has been for several years. Meta, Google, Apple, etc, have enough money to sustain over-large headcounts, but Twitter doesn't.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
I don't think it makes any difference to the purpose of selling the bonds, which is to take money out of the economy, whether they are sold at a loss or not.
Then the only question is how much money you want to take out of the economy and how quickly. With inflation at 10% I can see the argument for taking more money out of the economy more quickly, but I guess we'll see in a year or two whether the Bank is acting too quickly or not.
But today's inflation is a supply-side shock of imports costing dramatically more than they did, due to a global supply shock, due to a global shortage of fuel that we need to pay at global rates, not too much money in the local economy chasing too few local goods.
In these circumstances, taking money out at a cost to the taxpayer, rather than letting it expire at no cost, and rather than an interest rate rise which would help strengthen Sterling and reduce imported inflation, seems a rather perverse way of either tackling inflation or managing the economy.
If you let the debts expire and don't replace them it's still QT, just at a slower rate.
The Bank is clearly concerned that the jolt to inflation from the supply shock has rippled through the economy and become entrenched, thus requiring higher interest rates and QT to control. As the year has gone on I've tended more to that view, but who can be sure until we see it all play out?
I also tend to think that the policies implemented by the government to help people deal with the inflation produced by the supply shock is itself inflationary, and this has to be taken into account.
The Bank is so "concerned" that the rate rises its been putting in place have been shockingly puny and less than the Fed's, which is hammering Sterling, and thus making inflation worse.
Moderate QT via natural expirations, which is what other comparable CBs are doing, doesn't cost the taxpayer billions selling at a loss and putting up rates addresses the inflation issue, both imported and internal.
If it was putting up interest rates at a serious rate then perhaps we should be talking about selling bonds, but it hasn't. It is consistently waiting until after the Fed and then doing less than that.
QT and interest rates are both valid ways to control inflation. We might well find out that the Bank's more balanced approach, of using more QT instead of relying solely on interest rates, ends up producing a better outcome.
I don't know. But I'm fairly confident that looking at whether the bonds are sold at a loss or not is the wrong way to work out whether it's the right approach.
The problem with the Bank's approach is that the overwhelming majority of the inflation is imported, and imported inflation is worse if Sterling falls, better if Sterling rises. Putting up rates by less than the Fed makes Sterling fall which means anything priced in dollars (which is everything significantly affected by inflation) more expensive and increases inflation.
Other than the fact the Bank, alone in the world AFAIK, are actively selling gilts at a cost to taxpayers and putting up rates by less than the Fed - what reason is there to think its a good idea? I can not think of a single other Central Bank, anywhere in the world, that is doing that.
Looking at whether bonds are sold at a loss is relevant but not the only reason to think its a terrible idea. The fact that the inflation is imported and that rate rises sub-Fed levels makes Sterling fall and makes the inflation much worse is the bigger problem.
So the taxpayers are paying to pay for gilts to be sold at a loss, while inflation isn't tackled as rates aren't up as much as Fed rates. Why? How is that good?
To answer your questions. To agree with you, The Sunak government and the BoE are running scared from the consequences of interest rate increases in UK. The markets being nice at the moment is portrayed as Hunt and Sunak as great lion tamers, but the truth is the markets are becalmed because they expect 5% interest rates and higher gilts, the very thing the Sunak government is hiding under the desk scared of - anyone who isn’t expecting shit to hit fan very soon is totally deluded.
A couple of your points I do disagree with. The pound falling is actually inflationary. And all the QE of recent years, it’s impossible to do any of that without it being inflationary - it’s there in our social economy, stock markets, house prices etc
A few things:
1. The Fed / The Biden Administration doesn't care what happens with the rest of the world, their focus is on the US and specifically the Midterms. So running our interest rate policy as a slave to US political considerations is not a great way. By the way, the Bank of Japan has been doing the opposite and reducing interest rates (but they needed inflation).
2. There is a major difference between the US and UK mortgage markets in that US mortgages are typically 30 year fixed while UK ones are 2/3/5. Hence the panic here amongst homeowners about rising rates but not in the US, where rates have gone higher. Put them up to US levels and you would have a bloodbath.
3. As BR says, the inflation is imported but it's actually, in a number of cases, an artificial case since the prices of many commodities in $ terms is falling. The problem is because of the strength of the $, the £ cost is not coming down.
The simplest thing would be for the Fed / the Administration to stop jacking up interest rates to show they are doing something before the midterms.
I disagree with the tone of your post. I think you are belittling the situation the UK government and BoE are in, and granting them too much choice how to proceed.
I would be first to agree the USA is a different DNA so we would be foolish to copy their policy solutions - your brilliant example of the contrast in mortgage markets is one of many good examples which can explain it. But we arn’t pushing up our own rates over the coming six months to 4%+ to copy the USA - we actually have no choice, that is no choice to give the market the interest rate it wants because of the risk from the basket case asking it for money - a country that’s got into its mess through its own mistakes, not breaking its addiction to low rates and too much QE quickly enough in recent years.
Which brings me to disagree with 3. The degree we imported this inflation, to the degree it’s our own creation. That low interest rates and QE for twenty years didn’t come for free after all.
I think you guys are getting confused on inflation.
Consumer Price Inflation has been largely imported this time. Interest rates will have some direct impact by deflating demand but also through the exchange rate mechanism
Asset Price Inflation (equity and property valuations has been driven by QE. QT will address this… it will help bring house prices down…)
You’ve actually supported me on Asset Price Inflation from QE. But I don’t think you have been paying proper attention to all the thread. You would unhesitatingly pull the QT lever here in UK, thinking it’s merely the same outcome as in the states?
Musk is already firing teams of people at Twitter HQ:
@YasminKhorram "It's somewhere I worked at for 6 years and everything suddenly changed."
Twitter data engineering team leaving the HQ after being laid off today.
I feel sorry for the people laid off, but it's a good first step by Musk. Twitter is grossly bloated, and has been for several years. Meta, Google, Apple, etc, have enough money to sustain over-large headcounts, but Twitter doesn't.
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
Wow.
Indeed. Seemingly the time to visit them is dusk, when they are illuminated. But even in the drizzle they look amazing. I like having a reason to visit an unfashionable town.
There are, as the New Statesman opines, a number of factors in play. Perhaps we are genuinely seeing the beginnings of the "post-work" society. Despite the pleadings of Sunak and others, if people don't need to work and don't want to work, why should they be cajoled or coerced to work?
The level of vacancies also suggests (and I offer this as a tentative suggestion) a continued desire to have "people" (who are cheap) as against investing in technology or automaton (which isn't). Recognising a number of these vacancies exist in Service sectors which rely on human interaction means the argument is perhaps limited in scope - those who argue for the expansion of AI for instance in business transactions have a point but it seems to be happening more slowly than some might have hoped.
Musk is already firing teams of people at Twitter HQ:
@YasminKhorram "It's somewhere I worked at for 6 years and everything suddenly changed."
Twitter data engineering team leaving the HQ after being laid off today.
I feel sorry for the people laid off, but it's a good first step by Musk. Twitter is grossly bloated, and has been for several years. Meta, Google, Apple, etc, have enough money to sustain over-large headcounts, but Twitter doesn't.
I wonder if there'll be any knock on effects in the job and real estate markets. It could start a trend for scaling back some of the bloat.
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
Wow.
Indeed. Seemingly the time to visit them is dusk, when they are illuminated. But even in the drizzle they look amazing. I like having a reason to visit an unfashionable town.
The best thing about unfashionable towns is the accomodation. It's a wonderful mix of awful and fantastic. Overall it's breakfast that counts though, and it's often the case that it's better. Bournemouth though is deeply unfashionable, has the worst accomodation known to man, and delivers the most ghastly of breakfasts. I like other unfashionable towns far better.
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
Is it a giant open-air chessboard that ran out of money?
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
Can anyone guess where this is?
Edit: sorry no idea how to flip it!
Australia?
For the photo, your camera was upside down when taking it. Even if you rotate on a pc and save, that info gets retained. Best fix is (a) take landscape photos with your phone the other way and for this one (b) paste into something like word, power point etc and re save as jpg.
“UK sent RAF pilots to teach Chinese counterparts and allowed students to attend British military colleges.”
I thought this was retired people selling their knowledge for money, not government policy. Has this story changed through clever, controlled ship of state leaking from the top?
Were you involved Dura Ace? You do sleep with Mao’s Red Book under the pillow (below Haynes guide to liquid fuelled motorbikes)
"The former Prime Minister is even considering making public visits to some of the Red Wall seats that swept him to power to highlight the ongoing need to 'level up'.
He is also set to spend time in Washington to maintain pressure on the Biden administration to keep up its support for Ukraine.
Sources said he is also completing a planned biography of Shakespeare and is beginning preparation for writing his own memoirs."
Mail
That's more work than he's put in in the rest of his life put together. And. If he thinks he'll be greeted with flowers here... although any visit will,.of course, be secret.
What I am loving is how Truss has retrospectively shat on him and tainted what was left of his rep. Because I no longer distinguish them, I think of them as the boznliz debacle.
The whole Liz Truss episode now seems more like a dream rather than anything that actually happened. And not one of the good dreams like the one where I beat Sinead O'Connor at 501 with a nine dart finish.
Was she singing nothing compares 2 u after her defeat?
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
Can anyone guess where this is?
Edit: sorry no idea how to flip it!
Australia?
For the photo, your camera was upside down when taking it. Even if you rotate on a pc and save, that info gets retained. Best fix is (a) take landscape photos with your phone the other way and for this one (b) paste into something like word, power point etc and re save as jpg.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
I don't think it makes any difference to the purpose of selling the bonds, which is to take money out of the economy, whether they are sold at a loss or not.
Then the only question is how much money you want to take out of the economy and how quickly. With inflation at 10% I can see the argument for taking more money out of the economy more quickly, but I guess we'll see in a year or two whether the Bank is acting too quickly or not.
But today's inflation is a supply-side shock of imports costing dramatically more than they did, due to a global supply shock, due to a global shortage of fuel that we need to pay at global rates, not too much money in the local economy chasing too few local goods.
In these circumstances, taking money out at a cost to the taxpayer, rather than letting it expire at no cost, and rather than an interest rate rise which would help strengthen Sterling and reduce imported inflation, seems a rather perverse way of either tackling inflation or managing the economy.
If you let the debts expire and don't replace them it's still QT, just at a slower rate.
The Bank is clearly concerned that the jolt to inflation from the supply shock has rippled through the economy and become entrenched, thus requiring higher interest rates and QT to control. As the year has gone on I've tended more to that view, but who can be sure until we see it all play out?
I also tend to think that the policies implemented by the government to help people deal with the inflation produced by the supply shock is itself inflationary, and this has to be taken into account.
The Bank is so "concerned" that the rate rises its been putting in place have been shockingly puny and less than the Fed's, which is hammering Sterling, and thus making inflation worse.
Moderate QT via natural expirations, which is what other comparable CBs are doing, doesn't cost the taxpayer billions selling at a loss and putting up rates addresses the inflation issue, both imported and internal.
If it was putting up interest rates at a serious rate then perhaps we should be talking about selling bonds, but it hasn't. It is consistently waiting until after the Fed and then doing less than that.
QT and interest rates are both valid ways to control inflation. We might well find out that the Bank's more balanced approach, of using more QT instead of relying solely on interest rates, ends up producing a better outcome.
I don't know. But I'm fairly confident that looking at whether the bonds are sold at a loss or not is the wrong way to work out whether it's the right approach.
The problem with the Bank's approach is that the overwhelming majority of the inflation is imported, and imported inflation is worse if Sterling falls, better if Sterling rises. Putting up rates by less than the Fed makes Sterling fall which means anything priced in dollars (which is everything significantly affected by inflation) more expensive and increases inflation.
Other than the fact the Bank, alone in the world AFAIK, are actively selling gilts at a cost to taxpayers and putting up rates by less than the Fed - what reason is there to think its a good idea? I can not think of a single other Central Bank, anywhere in the world, that is doing that.
Looking at whether bonds are sold at a loss is relevant but not the only reason to think its a terrible idea. The fact that the inflation is imported and that rate rises sub-Fed levels makes Sterling fall and makes the inflation much worse is the bigger problem.
So the taxpayers are paying to pay for gilts to be sold at a loss, while inflation isn't tackled as rates aren't up as much as Fed rates. Why? How is that good?
To answer your questions. To agree with you, The Sunak government and the BoE are running scared from the consequences of interest rate increases in UK. The markets being nice at the moment is portrayed as Hunt and Sunak as great lion tamers, but the truth is the markets are becalmed because they expect 5% interest rates and higher gilts, the very thing the Sunak government is hiding under the desk scared of - anyone who isn’t expecting shit to hit fan very soon is totally deluded.
A couple of your points I do disagree with. The pound falling is actually inflationary. And all the QE of recent years, it’s impossible to do any of that without it being inflationary - it’s there in our social economy, stock markets, house prices etc
A few things:
1. The Fed / The Biden Administration doesn't care what happens with the rest of the world, their focus is on the US and specifically the Midterms. So running our interest rate policy as a slave to US political considerations is not a great way. By the way, the Bank of Japan has been doing the opposite and reducing interest rates (but they needed inflation).
2. There is a major difference between the US and UK mortgage markets in that US mortgages are typically 30 year fixed while UK ones are 2/3/5. Hence the panic here amongst homeowners about rising rates but not in the US, where rates have gone higher. Put them up to US levels and you would have a bloodbath.
3. As BR says, the inflation is imported but it's actually, in a number of cases, an artificial case since the prices of many commodities in $ terms is falling. The problem is because of the strength of the $, the £ cost is not coming down.
The simplest thing would be for the Fed / the Administration to stop jacking up interest rates to show they are doing something before the midterms.
I disagree with the tone of your post. I think you are belittling the situation the UK government and BoE are in, and granting them too much choice how to proceed.
I would be first to agree the USA is a different DNA so we would be foolish to copy their policy solutions - your brilliant example of the contrast in mortgage markets is one of many good examples which can explain it. But we arn’t pushing up our own rates over the coming six months to 4%+ to copy the USA - we actually have no choice, that is no choice to give the market the interest rate it wants because of the risk from the basket case asking it for money - a country that’s got into its mess through its own mistakes, not breaking its addiction to low rates and too much QE quickly enough in recent years.
Which brings me to disagree with 3. The degree we imported this inflation, to the degree it’s our own creation. That low interest rates and QE for twenty years didn’t come for free after all.
I think you guys are getting confused on inflation.
Consumer Price Inflation has been largely imported this time. Interest rates will have some direct impact by deflating demand but also through the exchange rate mechanism
Asset Price Inflation (equity and property valuations has been driven by QE. QT will address this… it will help bring house prices down…)
You’ve actually supported me on Asset Price Inflation from QE. But I don’t think you have been paying proper attention to all the thread. You would unhesitatingly pull the QT lever here in UK, thinking it’s merely the same outcome as in the states?
Monetary sterilisation is the right overall strategy but the US has notable advantages that we don’t.
It wouldn’t be right for me to comment in too much detail on these topics but rest assured that I never do anything without due and appropriate hesitation.
Elon Musk has bought a website devoted to middle aged people arguing with one other. I anticipate he’ll be on the phone to OGH very soon with a bid for this place.
There are, as the New Statesman opines, a number of factors in play. Perhaps we are genuinely seeing the beginnings of the "post-work" society. Despite the pleadings of Sunak and others, if people don't need to work and don't want to work, why should they be cajoled or coerced to work?
The level of vacancies also suggests (and I offer this as a tentative suggestion) a continued desire to have "people" (who are cheap) as against investing in technology or automaton (which isn't). Recognising a number of these vacancies exist in Service sectors which rely on human interaction means the argument is perhaps limited in scope - those who argue for the expansion of AI for instance in business transactions have a point but it seems to be happening more slowly than some might have hoped.
"Long-term sick" is also a euphemism for: not looking for work, but a doctor will certify you have some kind of chronic pain and need benefits.
Elon Musk has bought a website devoted to middle aged people arguing with one other. I anticipate he’ll be on the phone to OGH very soon with a bid for this place.
There aren't enough Americans on here to interest him.
If one want to see a model for Liz Truss look no further than Steve Jobs. Fired by Apple, he returned against the odds, and turned the company into today’s behemoth. And Steve Jobs was no Liz Truss. Her career will be like Istanbul 2005 and we’re only at half time.
Cycle Lane of the Season. This was in Manchester in 2020.
Hi Matt - I'm quite an activist on this stuff. I've recently launched a slightly bonkers road safety campaign on twitter. I'll DM you the details as it will reveal my TRUE identity as a 70 year old alcoholic Leither, resident here and in the Spey lounge.
Omnisis @Omnisis 🚨 VI 🚨 A few days in Rishi Sunak’s tenure as PM, the polls are showing a small bounce but Labour have a formidable 28 point lead. Field 27-28 Oct 2022 🧵
Con: 25% (+3 from 21-22 Oct) Lab: 53% (-3) Lib Dem 7% (-3) Green 4%(0) Reform UK 6%(+3) SNP 4% (0)
If one want to see a model for Liz Truss look no further than Steve Jobs. Fired by Apple, he returned against the odds, and turned the company into today’s behemoth. And Steve Jobs was no Liz Truss. Her career will be like Istanbul 2005 and we’re only at half time.
I like your thinking, but in this analogy, Apple must be the Lib Dems. Truss could make a triumphant return and lead them to power on a republican platform.
If one want to see a model for Liz Truss look no further than Steve Jobs. Fired by Apple, he returned against the odds, and turned the company into today’s behemoth. And Steve Jobs was no Liz Truss. Her career will be like Istanbul 2005 and we’re only at half time.
I like your thinking, but in this analogy, Apple must be the Lib Dems. Truss could make a triumphant return and lead them to power on a republican platform.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
I don't think it makes any difference to the purpose of selling the bonds, which is to take money out of the economy, whether they are sold at a loss or not.
Then the only question is how much money you want to take out of the economy and how quickly. With inflation at 10% I can see the argument for taking more money out of the economy more quickly, but I guess we'll see in a year or two whether the Bank is acting too quickly or not.
But today's inflation is a supply-side shock of imports costing dramatically more than they did, due to a global supply shock, due to a global shortage of fuel that we need to pay at global rates, not too much money in the local economy chasing too few local goods.
In these circumstances, taking money out at a cost to the taxpayer, rather than letting it expire at no cost, and rather than an interest rate rise which would help strengthen Sterling and reduce imported inflation, seems a rather perverse way of either tackling inflation or managing the economy.
If you let the debts expire and don't replace them it's still QT, just at a slower rate.
The Bank is clearly concerned that the jolt to inflation from the supply shock has rippled through the economy and become entrenched, thus requiring higher interest rates and QT to control. As the year has gone on I've tended more to that view, but who can be sure until we see it all play out?
I also tend to think that the policies implemented by the government to help people deal with the inflation produced by the supply shock is itself inflationary, and this has to be taken into account.
The Bank is so "concerned" that the rate rises its been putting in place have been shockingly puny and less than the Fed's, which is hammering Sterling, and thus making inflation worse.
Moderate QT via natural expirations, which is what other comparable CBs are doing, doesn't cost the taxpayer billions selling at a loss and putting up rates addresses the inflation issue, both imported and internal.
If it was putting up interest rates at a serious rate then perhaps we should be talking about selling bonds, but it hasn't. It is consistently waiting until after the Fed and then doing less than that.
QT and interest rates are both valid ways to control inflation. We might well find out that the Bank's more balanced approach, of using more QT instead of relying solely on interest rates, ends up producing a better outcome.
I don't know. But I'm fairly confident that looking at whether the bonds are sold at a loss or not is the wrong way to work out whether it's the right approach.
The problem with the Bank's approach is that the overwhelming majority of the inflation is imported, and imported inflation is worse if Sterling falls, better if Sterling rises. Putting up rates by less than the Fed makes Sterling fall which means anything priced in dollars (which is everything significantly affected by inflation) more expensive and increases inflation.
Other than the fact the Bank, alone in the world AFAIK, are actively selling gilts at a cost to taxpayers and putting up rates by less than the Fed - what reason is there to think its a good idea? I can not think of a single other Central Bank, anywhere in the world, that is doing that.
Looking at whether bonds are sold at a loss is relevant but not the only reason to think its a terrible idea. The fact that the inflation is imported and that rate rises sub-Fed levels makes Sterling fall and makes the inflation much worse is the bigger problem.
So the taxpayers are paying to pay for gilts to be sold at a loss, while inflation isn't tackled as rates aren't up as much as Fed rates. Why? How is that good?
To answer your questions. To agree with you, The Sunak government and the BoE are running scared from the consequences of interest rate increases in UK. The markets being nice at the moment is portrayed as Hunt and Sunak as great lion tamers, but the truth is the markets are becalmed because they expect 5% interest rates and higher gilts, the very thing the Sunak government is hiding under the desk scared of - anyone who isn’t expecting shit to hit fan very soon is totally deluded.
A couple of your points I do disagree with. The pound falling is actually inflationary. And all the QE of recent years, it’s impossible to do any of that without it being inflationary - it’s there in our social economy, stock markets, house prices etc
A few things:
1. The Fed / The Biden Administration doesn't care what happens with the rest of the world, their focus is on the US and specifically the Midterms. So running our interest rate policy as a slave to US political considerations is not a great way. By the way, the Bank of Japan has been doing the opposite and reducing interest rates (but they needed inflation).
2. There is a major difference between the US and UK mortgage markets in that US mortgages are typically 30 year fixed while UK ones are 2/3/5. Hence the panic here amongst homeowners about rising rates but not in the US, where rates have gone higher. Put them up to US levels and you would have a bloodbath.
3. As BR says, the inflation is imported but it's actually, in a number of cases, an artificial case since the prices of many commodities in $ terms is falling. The problem is because of the strength of the $, the £ cost is not coming down.
The simplest thing would be for the Fed / the Administration to stop jacking up interest rates to show they are doing something before the midterms.
I disagree with the tone of your post. I think you are belittling the situation the UK government and BoE are in, and granting them too much choice how to proceed.
I would be first to agree the USA is a different DNA so we would be foolish to copy their policy solutions - your brilliant example of the contrast in mortgage markets is one of many good examples which can explain it. But we arn’t pushing up our own rates over the coming six months to 4%+ to copy the USA - we actually have no choice, that is no choice to give the market the interest rate it wants because of the risk from the basket case asking it for money - a country that’s got into its mess through its own mistakes, not breaking its addiction to low rates and too much QE quickly enough in recent years.
Which brings me to disagree with 3. The degree we imported this inflation, to the degree it’s our own creation. That low interest rates and QE for twenty years didn’t come for free after all.
I think you guys are getting confused on inflation.
Consumer Price Inflation has been largely imported this time. Interest rates will have some direct impact by deflating demand but also through the exchange rate mechanism
Asset Price Inflation (equity and property valuations has been driven by QE. QT will address this… it will help bring house prices down…)
You’ve actually supported me on Asset Price Inflation from QE. But I don’t think you have been paying proper attention to all the thread. You would unhesitatingly pull the QT lever here in UK, thinking it’s merely the same outcome as in the states?
Monetary sterilisation is the right overall strategy but the US has notable advantages that we don’t.
It wouldn’t be right for me to comment in too much detail on these topics but rest assured that I never do anything without due and appropriate hesitation.
☺️
The right strategy to acheive what outcome though? What does success look like?
Were you involved Dura Ace? You do sleep with Mao’s Red Book under the pillow (below Haynes guide to liquid fuelled motorbikes)
Nope. Taught BFM to quite a few Bahrainis and Saudis though many (rabbit occupied) moons ago.
An American ex-AV-8B driver has already been arrested for the China business though. I doubt the British will be locking anybody up though.
Basic field muppetry? What does BFM mean? Were you any good at it? It seems that the things you really want to shine at are engineering and flying.
Basic Fighter Maneuvering. I was an aggressively average stick-and-rudder pilot (I was only in my mid 20s then and didn't have a shitload of experience) but I was a good instructor.
Omnisis @Omnisis 🚨 VI 🚨 A few days in Rishi Sunak’s tenure as PM, the polls are showing a small bounce but Labour have a formidable 28 point lead. Field 27-28 Oct 2022 🧵
Con: 25% (+3 from 21-22 Oct) Lab: 53% (-3) Lib Dem 7% (-3) Green 4%(0) Reform UK 6%(+3) SNP 4% (0)
PB maxim it takes 3 weeks for events to seep properly into polls, so still too early to panic, and install Steve Baker PM in December.
Omnisis @Omnisis 🚨 VI 🚨 A few days in Rishi Sunak’s tenure as PM, the polls are showing a small bounce but Labour have a formidable 28 point lead. Field 27-28 Oct 2022 🧵
Con: 25% (+3 from 21-22 Oct) Lab: 53% (-3) Lib Dem 7% (-3) Green 4%(0) Reform UK 6%(+3) SNP 4% (0)
Just dropping in to give you a quote from my girlfriend:
"You've maxed out the full extent of the possible male human ego and were forced to create an alter ego on PB"
I get complaints I spend too long in “that chat room” too 😒
“What are you chatting about in there?” “quantitive tightening.” “What?” “And… um… how to practice quantative tightening techniques on your partner in bed later tonight.” “Uh. Carry on then.”
Omnisis @Omnisis 🚨 VI 🚨 A few days in Rishi Sunak’s tenure as PM, the polls are showing a small bounce but Labour have a formidable 28 point lead. Field 27-28 Oct 2022 🧵
Con: 25% (+3 from 21-22 Oct) Lab: 53% (-3) Lib Dem 7% (-3) Green 4%(0) Reform UK 6%(+3) SNP 4% (0)
PB maxim it takes 3 weeks for events to seep properly into polls, so still too early to panic, and install Steve Baker PM in December.
FWIW, I think he as likely to run it into the ground as he is to successfully transform it.
Maybe, success is far from guaranteed. But cutting dead wood is a great start, and there's no wood more dead than Twitter's (ex) senior management. They've done nothing to move the business forward. I mean, can anyone who uses Twitter name one thing Agrawal and his team did to improve the platform's prospects? I certainly can't. Paying $200m to get rid of them is small beans on a $44bn investment.
Musk's plan to make Twitter a western WeChat is risky and ambitious, but it's a viable plan. The former management's plan was... well, something, something, growth. Possibly.
Omnisis @Omnisis 🚨 VI 🚨 A few days in Rishi Sunak’s tenure as PM, the polls are showing a small bounce but Labour have a formidable 28 point lead. Field 27-28 Oct 2022 🧵
Con: 25% (+3 from 21-22 Oct) Lab: 53% (-3) Lib Dem 7% (-3) Green 4%(0) Reform UK 6%(+3) SNP 4% (0)
PB maxim it takes 3 weeks for events to seep properly into polls, so still too early to panic, and install Steve Baker PM in December.
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Facebook on the liberal side? It's literally the #1 right wing media outlet.
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Facebook on the liberal side? It's literally the #1 right wing media outlet.
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Facebook on the liberal side? It's literally the #1 right wing media outlet.
If one want to see a model for Liz Truss look no further than Steve Jobs. Fired by Apple, he returned against the odds, and turned the company into today’s behemoth. And Steve Jobs was no Liz Truss. Her career will be like Istanbul 2005 and we’re only at half time.
EVENT: Can we believe the polls next time? Central London, 2 November. Chaired by @JaneFrostMRS and keynote by Professor Sir John Curtice britishpollingcouncil.org/can-we-believe…
FWIW, I think he as likely to run it into the ground as he is to successfully transform it.
Maybe, success is far from guaranteed. But cutting dead wood is a great start, and there's no wood more dead than Twitter's (ex) senior management. They've done nothing to move the business forward. I mean, can anyone who uses Twitter name one thing Agrawal and his team did to improve the platform's prospects? I certainly can't. Paying $200m to get rid of them is small beans on a $44bn investment.
Musk's plan to make Twitter a western WeChat is risky and ambitious, but it's a viable plan. The former management's plan was... well, something, something, growth. Possibly.
They maximised shareholder value, and how. That's their only job.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he want it?
1. Lots of scope for jolly rhetoric 2. Zero need to do anything except make speeches. 3. Useful salary. 4. Popular attention.
I've spent a bit of time today with a mate trying to work out how many people have 3rd Party Liability cover for when they are out on a bike.
It's more than I thought - something between perhaps a third and two-thirds of the population, as it comes packaged with everything from various bank accounts, household insurance, travel insurance and eg trade union memberships. In addition to the cycling organisations and similar.
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Facebook on the liberal side? It's literally the #1 right wing media outlet.
FWIW, I think he as likely to run it into the ground as he is to successfully transform it.
Maybe, success is far from guaranteed. But cutting dead wood is a great start, and there's no wood more dead than Twitter's (ex) senior management. They've done nothing to move the business forward. I mean, can anyone who uses Twitter name one thing Agrawal and his team did to improve the platform's prospects? I certainly can't. Paying $200m to get rid of them is small beans on a $44bn investment.
Musk's plan to make Twitter a western WeChat is risky and ambitious, but it's a viable plan. The former management's plan was... well, something, something, growth. Possibly.
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Facebook on the liberal side? It's literally the #1 right wing media outlet.
Omnisis @Omnisis 🚨 VI 🚨 A few days in Rishi Sunak’s tenure as PM, the polls are showing a small bounce but Labour have a formidable 28 point lead. Field 27-28 Oct 2022 🧵
Con: 25% (+3 from 21-22 Oct) Lab: 53% (-3) Lib Dem 7% (-3) Green 4%(0) Reform UK 6%(+3) SNP 4% (0)
So for every two moderates Rishi Rich attracts he repels a swivel eyed and/or closet racist into the arms of the Refukers.
Elon Musk has bought a website devoted to middle aged people arguing with one other. I anticipate he’ll be on the phone to OGH very soon with a bid for this place.
Young adults are the largest group on Twitter, not the middle aged, and Twitter doesn't have as many children as some social media platforms. So it actually has potentially good demographics from an advertisers point of view. Of course advertisers don't want their posts running alongside the posts of racists, anti-vaxers, QAnon nuts, homophobes, trolls, etc.
Elon Musk has bought a website devoted to middle aged people arguing with one other. I anticipate he’ll be on the phone to OGH very soon with a bid for this place.
Young adults are the largest group on Twitter, not the middle aged, and Twitter doesn't have as many children as some social media platforms. So it actually has potentially good demographics from an advertisers point of view. Of course advertisers don't want their posts running alongside the posts of racists, anti-vaxers, QAnon nuts, homphobes, trolls, etc.
Twitter is, politically, the most powerful social medium of all. Which is why people like Trump are desperate to get back on it, and why the world's richest man has bought it
Facebook is fairly trivial in comparison, and could be totally eclipsed in a few years
Rishi Sunak is upholding Liz Truss’s decision to stop King Charles attending the Cop 27 climate conference, despite the monarch “ champing at the bit” to go.
The prime minister faces criticism over his own decision to skip the event and has been under pressure to allow the monarch to attend instead.
Charles is believed to be disappointed by the advice from No 10 that he should miss the event, which starts in Egypt next weekend, with allies suggesting that Sunak should let him go to prove Britain’s environmental commitment. However, the King will not force the issue after Downing Street made clear yesterday that Sunak would not reopen any debate about it.
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Facebook on the liberal side? It's literally the #1 right wing media outlet.
Disappointing if the Nashville thing is accurate because I expected the parthenon to look better than that. Columns look very dumpy.
They do have entasis though, the authentic slight swelling in the middle, so someone's made an effort. I wonder if it's the camera giving that impression of dumpiness, actually.
Just dropping in to give you a quote from my girlfriend:
"You've maxed out the full extent of the possible male human ego and were forced to create an alter ego on PB"
Me on Tuesday: "Mum, would you like to have a look at the new Bond Street station that opened yesterday?"
Sunil's mum: "You and your bloody Elizabeth Line!"
There's a drink called a Bloody Elizabeth. It's a Bloody Mary with the addition of sherry. It's the best thing ever.
OOH. Recipe needed!
I don't have one - I was told this verbally by a publican I was serving at a wedding a looooong time ago in my gap year. Make the Bloody Mary the way you would normally, or get your bartender to (lots of worcester sauce and salt and pepper for me) then sling a sherry in there. It's pretty good with any sherry but don't waste a pricey one, something like HBC tastes fine. It makes it taste all rich, like a simmering casserole.
Rishi Sunak is upholding Liz Truss’s decision to stop King Charles attending the Cop 27 climate conference, despite the monarch “ champing at the bit” to go.
The prime minister faces criticism over his own decision to skip the event and has been under pressure to allow the monarch to attend instead.
Charles is believed to be disappointed by the advice from No 10 that he should miss the event, which starts in Egypt next weekend, with allies suggesting that Sunak should let him go to prove Britain’s environmental commitment. However, the King will not force the issue after Downing Street made clear yesterday that Sunak would not reopen any debate about it.
Rishi Sunak is upholding Liz Truss’s decision to stop King Charles attending the Cop 27 climate conference, despite the monarch “ champing at the bit” to go.
The prime minister faces criticism over his own decision to skip the event and has been under pressure to allow the monarch to attend instead.
Charles is believed to be disappointed by the advice from No 10 that he should miss the event, which starts in Egypt next weekend, with allies suggesting that Sunak should let him go to prove Britain’s environmental commitment. However, the King will not force the issue after Downing Street made clear yesterday that Sunak would not reopen any debate about it.
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Facebook on the liberal side? It's literally the #1 right wing media outlet.
Yes. I I’ve posted four articles detailing how the basic manner in which Facebook works, it’s algorithm and overall platform structure, helped Trump get elected. It’s late and I don’t have the time, or the crayons, to explain this to you further.
Rishi Sunak is upholding Liz Truss’s decision to stop King Charles attending the Cop 27 climate conference, despite the monarch “ champing at the bit” to go.
The prime minister faces criticism over his own decision to skip the event and has been under pressure to allow the monarch to attend instead.
Charles is believed to be disappointed by the advice from No 10 that he should miss the event, which starts in Egypt next weekend, with allies suggesting that Sunak should let him go to prove Britain’s environmental commitment. However, the King will not force the issue after Downing Street made clear yesterday that Sunak would not reopen any debate about it.
They've got to find Charles something to do. @Leon and I had the same idea of getting him to build a new model garden city, all fancy like, with pillars and turrets. We need more housing anyway.
Rishi Sunak is upholding Liz Truss’s decision to stop King Charles attending the Cop 27 climate conference, despite the monarch “ champing at the bit” to go.
The prime minister faces criticism over his own decision to skip the event and has been under pressure to allow the monarch to attend instead.
Charles is believed to be disappointed by the advice from No 10 that he should miss the event, which starts in Egypt next weekend, with allies suggesting that Sunak should let him go to prove Britain’s environmental commitment. However, the King will not force the issue after Downing Street made clear yesterday that Sunak would not reopen any debate about it.
Comments
I’m currently writing a topical header about the budget - with no step moms and no volcano’s. How would you like me to submit it?
And. If he thinks he'll be greeted with flowers here... although any visit will,.of course, be secret.
The Conservative poll rating has improved to 25-27% (it's hardly surprising given the remarkable sub-20% numbers seen in the last days of the Truss debacle. To be fair, I suspect it got to a point where people were embarrassed to confess they supported the Conservatives given the seemingly endless vitriol and self-inflicted disasters which characterised much of late September and early-mid October.
Labour's poll rating remains around or just above 50% - an extraordinary number (Cameron's Conservatives managed only one poll with a rating above 50% for example). Even with the 24 point leads recorded by Techne and Survation, Labour has majorities in excess of 300 and the Conservatives end up with fewer than 100 seats (add in tactical voting and it's nearer 50 seats) which would be historically poor.
And yet, as we all know, this means nothing - the election isn't going to be until mid 2024 at the earliest and possibly not until October 17th 2024 (well, it's my prediction FWIW).
That means Sunak has two years to turn this round - that's a tall order but given the volatility in the electorate not completely impossible. The position is probably equivalent to 1995 when Major defeated Redwood or perhaps 1968 when the Conservatives routed Labour in London.
The forthcoming financial statement by Hunt will be fascinating. With supply-side tax cuts discredited, Prudence is back and staying in the Presidential Suite. The re-balancing of the public finances and the reduction in the deficit (along with the management of debt) are going to be the key measures. Interest rates will rise and that will be a shock to a generation who have never known anything but rock-bottom rates and for those who have taken on property debt it's going to be a real shock.
I don't think the coming winter will be as dystopic as some suggest but I think NHS stories will be much in evidence and few will show Government in a good light (even where it's not clear what Government can and should do). These stories and experiences do permeate the public consciousness and traditionally the notion Labour are the only party which truly cares about the NHS and its staff will get an airing (as we've seen today public attitudes toward the Government's handling of the NHS can be very hostile)
does absence of politics from the media narrative now help or hinder the Tory fight back?
Suck it up
I didn’t see any of these pathetic liberal pantywaists weeping similarly when Facebook and Twitter were on THEIR side and spent A YEAR censoring any mention of the lab leak hypothesis in case it “helped Trump”
Consumer Price Inflation has been largely imported this time. Interest rates will have some direct impact by deflating demand but also through the exchange rate mechanism
Asset Price Inflation (equity and property valuations has been driven by QE. QT will address this… it will help bring house prices down…)
Edit: sorry no idea how to flip it!
@YasminKhorram
"It's somewhere I worked at for 6 years and everything suddenly changed."
Twitter data engineering team leaving the HQ after being laid off today.
https://twitter.com/YasminKhorram/status/1586045610024525824
For the photo, your camera was upside down when taking it. Even if you rotate on a pc and save, that info gets retained. Best fix is (a) take landscape photos with your phone the other way and for this one (b) paste into something like word, power point etc and re save as jpg.
The disjointed and oneirological character of Truss's 44 days will greatly help the tories in gaslighting the country that it never happened. We went straight from the Lord of Misrule to Will from the Inbetweeners. That's the line.
Better?
As a guess to where it is - Santiago.
https://twitter.com/CalltoActivism/status/1586039357638676480
FWIW, I think he as likely to run it into the ground as he is to successfully transform it.
Seemingly the time to visit them is dusk, when they are illuminated.
But even in the drizzle they look amazing.
I like having a reason to visit an unfashionable town.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1585952907970625536
There are, as the New Statesman opines, a number of factors in play. Perhaps we are genuinely seeing the beginnings of the "post-work" society. Despite the pleadings of Sunak and others, if people don't need to work and don't want to work, why should they be cajoled or coerced to work?
The level of vacancies also suggests (and I offer this as a tentative suggestion) a continued desire to have "people" (who are cheap) as against investing in technology or automaton (which isn't). Recognising a number of these vacancies exist in Service sectors which rely on human interaction means the argument is perhaps limited in scope - those who argue for the expansion of AI for instance in business transactions have a point but it seems to be happening more slowly than some might have hoped.
It is in a Country, and that country is Western.
“UK sent RAF pilots to teach Chinese counterparts and allowed students to attend British military colleges.”
I thought this was retired people selling their knowledge for money, not government policy. Has this story changed through clever, controlled ship of state leaking from the top?
Were you involved Dura Ace? You do sleep with Mao’s Red Book under the pillow (below Haynes guide to liquid fuelled motorbikes)
Monetary sterilisation is the right overall strategy but the US has notable advantages that we don’t.
It wouldn’t be right for me to comment in too much detail on these topics but rest assured that I never do anything without due and appropriate hesitation.
☺️
An American ex-AV-8B driver has already been arrested for the China business. I doubt the British will be locking anybody up though.
@Omnisis
🚨 VI 🚨 A few days in Rishi Sunak’s tenure as PM, the polls are showing a small bounce but Labour have a formidable 28 point lead. Field 27-28 Oct 2022 🧵
Con: 25% (+3 from 21-22 Oct)
Lab: 53% (-3)
Lib Dem 7% (-3)
Green 4%(0)
Reform UK 6%(+3)
SNP 4% (0)
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/uncommon-decency/id1534151181
"You've maxed out the full extent of the possible male human ego and were forced to create an alter ego on PB"
“What are you chatting about in there?”
“quantitive tightening.”
“What?”
“And… um… how to practice quantative tightening techniques on your partner in bed later tonight.”
“Uh. Carry on then.”
That will be the sacking of...
Connor Burns.
Musk's plan to make Twitter a western WeChat is risky and ambitious, but it's a viable plan. The former management's plan was... well, something, something, growth. Possibly.
Well, Mr Eagles keeps sounding his Legendary Modesty Klaxon, anyway...
Sunil's mum: "You and your bloody Elizabeth Line!"
https://twitter.com/britpollingcncl/status/1586056110678556672?s=46&t=7JFmq-zoL9OH0TYix_medA
2. Zero need to do anything except make speeches.
3. Useful salary.
4. Popular attention.
Why wouldn't he?
I've spent a bit of time today with a mate trying to work out how many people have 3rd Party Liability cover for when they are out on a bike.
It's more than I thought - something between perhaps a third and two-thirds of the population, as it comes packaged with everything from various bank accounts, household insurance, travel insurance and eg trade union memberships. In addition to the cycling organisations and similar.
Thread here:
https://twitter.com/AdamBronkhorst/status/1585987868593307648
https://www.remotelands.com/travelogues/garni-the-roman-temple-in-armenia/
https://www.wired.com/2016/11/facebook-won-trump-election-not-just-fake-news/amp
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/09/26/facebook-conservatives-2020-421146
https://fortune.com/2016/11/10/facebook-blame-trump/amp/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/03/22/all-the-ways-trumps-campaign-was-aided-by-facebook-ranked-by-importance/
If you've got anything to beat that, knock yerself out
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3sYN1Beg4NI
That makes his job twice as hard.
Facebook is fairly trivial in comparison, and could be totally eclipsed in a few years
Disappointing if the Nashville thing is accurate because I expected the parthenon to look better than that. Columns look very dumpy.
Rishi Sunak is upholding Liz Truss’s decision to stop King Charles attending the Cop 27 climate conference, despite the monarch “ champing at the bit” to go.
The prime minister faces criticism over his own decision to skip the event and has been under pressure to allow the monarch to attend instead.
Charles is believed to be disappointed by the advice from No 10 that he should miss the event, which starts in Egypt next weekend, with allies suggesting that Sunak should let him go to prove Britain’s environmental commitment. However, the King will not force the issue after Downing Street made clear yesterday that Sunak would not reopen any debate about it.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-will-deny-king-charles-his-trip-to-cop27-talks-h8nx5bgct
https://www.ravelry.com/patterns/library/horse-race-beanie