@vonderburchard Spiegel reports that Western intelligence intercepted Russian radio messages end of last year discussing nuclear strikes against Berlin plus the Ramstein and Büchel air bases.
The story speculates that Russia did this to intimidate Scholz — successfully?
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
I wonder what the DUP will do when Sinn Fein win again?
Continue to refuse to join the Executive as now until the Irish Sea border is removed. Latest NI Assembly poll from August has the DUP and Alliance up 3% on the May election but SF only up 1%.
I wonder what the DUP will do when Sinn Fein win again?
Continue to refuse to join the Executive as now until the Irish Sea border is removed. Latest NI Assembly poll from August has the DUP and Alliance up 3% on the May election but SF only up 1%.
Boris's star seems to be following a simiar trajectory to Trump's. The less fanatical of his supporters are beginning to sense that he isn't in fact the Messiah, just another naughty boy.
It's taken a while but it is a bit of a relief.
These are serious times. We don't need clowns in charge.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
He is over - get used to it
Indeed Johnson only wants to be top dog, and certainly not leading an opposition for 5 years
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
That seems extremely unlikely. Even if Rishi gets the party back to polling ~35 points Boris has lost his seat. It would need another landslide for Boris to hold Uxbridge and I doubt Rishi will allow a chicken run for Boris.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
He is over - get used to it
Indeed Johnson only wants to be top dog, and certainly not leading an opposition for 5 years
If Labour only get a wafer thin majority and look a bit unstable in govt then it still may appeal to Bozo. But if Labour have a reasonable majority then zero chance he wants the LotO job.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
He is over - get used to it
Indeed Johnson only wants to be top dog, and certainly not leading an opposition for 5 years
If Labour only get a wafer thin majority and look a bit unstable in govt then it still may appeal to Bozo. But if Labour have a reasonable majority then zero chance he wants the LotO job.
Depends on what the economy does, even if Labour got a big majority if taxes still go up, inflation and cost of living continues to rise, Starmer has to impose austerity etc the government would soon lose popularity. If say Leader of the Opposition Braverman or Badenoch are not making much impact, Johnson may be tempted
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
That seems extremely unlikely. Even if Rishi gets the party back to polling ~35 points Boris has lost his seat. It would need another landslide for Boris to hold Uxbridge and I doubt Rishi will allow a chicken run for Boris.
There are rumours he might switch to Reigate and Sunak can't prevent Johnson switching seats unless he removed him from the candidates list which would create a huge row
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
That seems extremely unlikely. Even if Rishi gets the party back to polling ~35 points Boris has lost his seat. It would need another landslide for Boris to hold Uxbridge and I doubt Rishi will allow a chicken run for Boris.
Labour needs a 7.5% swing to oust Johnson - implying a GB Labour lead of just over 3%.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and be to ready to exploit the government's failures
It seems you and Dorries cannot get over toxic Johnson
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Nor lying on a Caribbean beach while the HOC is sitting, and making an undignified dash at the back of a plane in the expectation he could claim the crown only to be shown the door by his colleagues
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Although that said Winston Churchill hardly ever bothered to turn up to the Commons when he was LotO. He left all the actual work to Anthony Eden, who was none too pleased therefore when Churchill came back as PM in 1951 and stayed for three and a half largely wasted years.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
How about 1 holiday and a couple of meetings abroad with spies from hostile governments and potential honey traps instead?
Spot LNG is weird: you might contract with Shell for a shipment from Qatargas, but when the vessel turns up in port, it's actually traveled from the US or wherever.
The shipping companies are constantly trying to optimize schedules (because your daily running costs of the vessels can be above $50k). And I think - while we've not allowed people to buy from the Russians, you've never known exactly whose gas was going to turn up.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Although that said Winston Churchill hardly ever bothered to turn up to the Commons when he was LotO. He left all the actual work to Anthony Eden, who was none too pleased therefore when Churchill came back as PM in 1951 and stayed for three and a half largely wasted years.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and be to ready to exploit the government's failures
It seems you and Dorries cannot get over toxic Johnson
However, the good news is the country has
The scenario I can't shake is May 2024, still fifteen points behind, last throw of the dice.
It would be a big bet at poorish odds, but could the party really resist calling Boris back?
Perusing the polling, the smallest Labour lead this month was 21%. Given that, the betting odds on Lab majority look tasty. On Con majority insanity.
Prime Minister Ed Miliband had a 20% lead, as I recall.....
Didn't EICIPM max out about a 15 percent lead?
And the economy did pretty well 2013-5.
No, he deffo had a 20% lead.
Not that I'm saying history will repeat itself.....
EDIT - somewhere Mar-April 2013, there was a poll that was 45-25 I believe...
Biggest that Wiki has is:
4–8 Apr TNS BMRB 1,184 25% 40% 10% 14% 4% 7% 15%
May 2012 there was a 16% with Angus Reid, handful of 15%, average lead 2 years out was about 11%, double digit leads ended Jan 2014, although there was an 11% outlier in Jan 2015
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and be to ready to exploit the government's failures
It seems you and Dorries cannot get over toxic Johnson
However, the good news is the country has
The scenario I can't shake is May 2024, still fifteen points behind, last throw of the dice.
It would be a big bet at poorish odds, but could the party really resist calling Boris back?
Good to see Sir Ed Davey’s short sighted mistake being partially reversed.
I wondered who Ed Facet was.
AIR @rcs1000 and @Richard_Tyndall both expressed reservations about reopening the Ruff due to the technical problems there. Do we know if those have been addressed?
No they haven't. It will be a matter of how lucky they are going forward for how long they can keep this going. I would not be betting on it being for very long.
What are the risks and problems (if they can be put in language somebody who is neither a scientist or engineer can understand)? And is it worth doing anyway as a temporary measure, or is it just token gesture?
The main issue is that to store gas in this way - utilising geological traps such as old reservoirs - you have to pump gas in and out under pressure. This isn't just an empty cavern that you fill up with gas, it is a permeable sandstone with the gas being stored in the intergranular pore spaces. As you pump gas in and out under pressure it causes the rocks to flex, opening and closing microfractures and weakening the whole structure. This limits the useful life of reservoir for storage.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
I wonder what the DUP will do when Sinn Fein win again?
Continue to refuse to join the Executive as now until the Irish Sea border is removed. Latest NI Assembly poll from August has the DUP and Alliance up 3% on the May election but SF only up 1%.
The DUP really are the biggest bunch of whoppers going
While this is true, and frankly they ought to man up and get back to trying to run NI together with the other parties, it’s a bit rich for Sein Fein to complain about people not turning up to parliament.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
If Rishi loses Johnson will lose his seat anyway
Not sure that's right.
Firstly, Uxbridge requires a 7.5% swing for Labour to win. Leaving aside that he has an okay chance of overperforming uniform national swing (Labour people will pile in, but they have previously too, and Johnson himself will draw in Tory activists) Sunak would have lost a fair bit before losing Uxbridge. So Labour probably need it for a majority, but can do without it to remove Sunak from Number 10 given Tories remain un-coalitionable at this stage.
Secondly, I'd not at all rule out that Uxbridge won't be the seat Johnson stands in. I can see him potentially developing a sudden and deep affinity for Lincolnshire over coming months.
@vonderburchard Spiegel reports that Western intelligence intercepted Russian radio messages end of last year discussing nuclear strikes against Berlin plus the Ramstein and Büchel air bases.
The story speculates that Russia did this to intimidate Scholz — successfully?
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
So, a Labour government would lead to high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity?
It's amazing that anybody is even considering voting for them, isn't it?
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
I wonder what the DUP will do when Sinn Fein win again?
Continue to refuse to join the Executive as now until the Irish Sea border is removed. Latest NI Assembly poll from August has the DUP and Alliance up 3% on the May election but SF only up 1%.
The DUP really are the biggest bunch of whoppers going
While this is true, and frankly they ought to man up and get back to trying to run NI together with the other parties, it’s a bit rich for Sein Fein to complain about people not turning up to parliament.
At least their stance is all or nothing on that, not just throwing tantrums.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
So, a Labour government would lead to high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity?
It's amazing that anybody is even considering voting for them, isn't it?
Whoever gets in at the next election will have to do more of the same as this government is doing
Nose tells me to stay out of the Brazil 2nd round on Sunday, despite the nominally attractive price on Lula de Silva.
Tips? What's attractive in US midterms? I've been eyeing up republicans on 51 or 52 seats in the senate.
If the GOP take the Senate as well as the House, the odds of a Trump return to the White House in 2024 also increase significantly
I see the logic of that, but actually think losing House and Senate tends to help the Democrats hold the Presidency in 2024. There will be a lot of House/Senate clashes in those circumstances, and Biden is rather well placed to sit above the fray, using the veto as required.
It would, however, boost Trump for GOP nomination. Whereas losing one or (much less likely) both would undermine his position having been so pivotal in endorsements.
Yes, the next 2 years may well be a shitshow, and people have had enough of the Tories, but he's still going to be good.
It's going to be like the handover of Hong Kong in 1997: inevitable, but an honourable end.
Funnily enough, I think those are two premature calls. He could well be shit and he could well win the next election. Labour does a massive policy blunder, the polls narrow enough for the Tories to weaponise the threat of the SNP holding the balance of power, a black swan event... there are definitely paths via which Sunak could win a 10-20 seat majority. Labour are currently 2-0 up at half-time so to speak, but it'd be foolish for them to be complacent.
Nose tells me to stay out of the Brazil 2nd round on Sunday, despite the nominally attractive price on Lula de Silva.
Tips? What's attractive in US midterms? I've been eyeing up republicans on 51 or 52 seats in the senate.
If the GOP take the Senate as well as the House, the odds of a Trump return to the White House in 2024 also increase significantly
I see the logic of that, but actually think losing House and Senate tends to help the Democrats hold the Presidency in 2024. There will be a lot of House/Senate clashes in those circumstances, and Biden is rather well placed to sit above the fray, using the veto as required.
It would, however, boost Trump for GOP nomination. Whereas losing one or (much less likely) both would undermine his position having been so pivotal in endorsements.
If Trump does get the nomination, if both Chambers of Congress are GOP in 2024 as they were not in 2020 he also has a much better chance of overturning even an EC loss via Congress
I can see the circumstances where a Truss comeback could happen. I think she’s significantly underpriced for next PM.
Magic hour is 6pm.
What time did you start this afternoon?
I agree it's unlikely. But.......
Rishi isn't going to have a lot of goodies to hand out in the next couple of years. The Conservative polling position remains dire. So he will quite possibly go down to a bad defeat and some of the grassroots will decide that he was too elite, too metropolitan, too agreeable. What will the Tory membership look like in a few years time? The principal weakness of our political system is the way in which a small number of activists can exert a wildly disproportionate influence. There don't need to be that many Trussites.
Trump supporter and one who brought into the big lie about Biden’s win charged with attempted murder of Pelosi’s husband aswell as attempted burglary and some other lesser charges .
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
So, a Labour government would lead to high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity?
It's amazing that anybody is even considering voting for them, isn't it?
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
So, a Labour government would lead to high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity?
It's amazing that anybody is even considering voting for them, isn't it?
Per Casino it'll lead to One Country Two Systems.
More likely the Tory shires will declare UDI to protect their inheritances and their house prices.
Trump supporter and one who brought into the big lie about Biden’s win charged with attempted murder of Pelosi’s husband aswell as attempted burglary and some other lesser charges .
Just as we contemplate him back on Twitter with his precious "free speech" enabled.
The swing from centre-right to centre-left blocs is under 1% but that translates to a 6-point lead for the centre-left bloc. However, Lars Lokke Rasmussen's Moderates remain in the middle able to provide a majority for either side of the Folketing. Rasmussen has denied wanting to become Prime Minister himself and it may well be his party will provide support on a case-by-case basis and sit outside any coalition.
As I said above, Liz Truss for next PM. You’ll thank me later!
Sunak would have to take the Tories down to 5% for Truss to have any chance and even then Boris would be more likely
You underestimate her. It’s clear that the events of the last two months were gamed in advance. She’s playing 4D Chess while the rest of us are struggling at Snakes and Ladders. Truss operates at levels of sophistication well above the rest of us and I advise betting accordingly.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
I don't think it makes any difference to the purpose of selling the bonds, which is to take money out of the economy, whether they are sold at a loss or not.
Then the only question is how much money you want to take out of the economy and how quickly. With inflation at 10% I can see the argument for taking more money out of the economy more quickly, but I guess we'll see in a year or two whether the Bank is acting too quickly or not.
But today's inflation is a supply-side shock of imports costing dramatically more than they did, due to a global supply shock, due to a global shortage of fuel that we need to pay at global rates, not too much money in the local economy chasing too few local goods.
In these circumstances, taking money out at a cost to the taxpayer, rather than letting it expire at no cost, and rather than an interest rate rise which would help strengthen Sterling and reduce imported inflation, seems a rather perverse way of either tackling inflation or managing the economy.
If you let the debts expire and don't replace them it's still QT, just at a slower rate.
The Bank is clearly concerned that the jolt to inflation from the supply shock has rippled through the economy and become entrenched, thus requiring higher interest rates and QT to control. As the year has gone on I've tended more to that view, but who can be sure until we see it all play out?
I also tend to think that the policies implemented by the government to help people deal with the inflation produced by the supply shock is itself inflationary, and this has to be taken into account.
The Bank is so "concerned" that the rate rises its been putting in place have been shockingly puny and less than the Fed's, which is hammering Sterling, and thus making inflation worse.
Moderate QT via natural expirations, which is what other comparable CBs are doing, doesn't cost the taxpayer billions selling at a loss and putting up rates addresses the inflation issue, both imported and internal.
If it was putting up interest rates at a serious rate then perhaps we should be talking about selling bonds, but it hasn't. It is consistently waiting until after the Fed and then doing less than that.
QT and interest rates are both valid ways to control inflation. We might well find out that the Bank's more balanced approach, of using more QT instead of relying solely on interest rates, ends up producing a better outcome.
I don't know. But I'm fairly confident that looking at whether the bonds are sold at a loss or not is the wrong way to work out whether it's the right approach.
The problem with the Bank's approach is that the overwhelming majority of the inflation is imported, and imported inflation is worse if Sterling falls, better if Sterling rises. Putting up rates by less than the Fed makes Sterling fall which means anything priced in dollars (which is everything significantly affected by inflation) more expensive and increases inflation.
Other than the fact the Bank, alone in the world AFAIK, are actively selling gilts at a cost to taxpayers and putting up rates by less than the Fed - what reason is there to think its a good idea? I can not think of a single other Central Bank, anywhere in the world, that is doing that.
Looking at whether bonds are sold at a loss is relevant but not the only reason to think its a terrible idea. The fact that the inflation is imported and that rate rises sub-Fed levels makes Sterling fall and makes the inflation much worse is the bigger problem.
So the taxpayers are paying to pay for gilts to be sold at a loss, while inflation isn't tackled as rates aren't up as much as Fed rates. Why? How is that good?
To answer your questions. To agree with you, The Sunak government and the BoE are running scared from the consequences of interest rate increases in UK. The markets being nice at the moment is portrayed as Hunt and Sunak as great lion tamers, but the truth is the markets are becalmed because they expect 5% interest rates and higher gilts, the very thing the Sunak government is hiding under the desk scared of - anyone who isn’t expecting shit to hit fan very soon is totally deluded.
A couple of your points I do disagree with. The pound falling is actually inflationary. And all the QE of recent years, it’s impossible to do any of that without it being inflationary - it’s there in our social economy, stock markets, house prices etc
A few things:
1. The Fed / The Biden Administration doesn't care what happens with the rest of the world, their focus is on the US and specifically the Midterms. So running our interest rate policy as a slave to US political considerations is not a great way. By the way, the Bank of Japan has been doing the opposite and reducing interest rates (but they needed inflation).
2. There is a major difference between the US and UK mortgage markets in that US mortgages are typically 30 year fixed while UK ones are 2/3/5. Hence the panic here amongst homeowners about rising rates but not in the US, where rates have gone higher. Put them up to US levels and you would have a bloodbath.
3. As BR says, the inflation is imported but it's actually, in a number of cases, an artificial case since the prices of many commodities in $ terms is falling. The problem is because of the strength of the $, the £ cost is not coming down.
The simplest thing would be for the Fed / the Administration to stop jacking up interest rates to show they are doing something before the midterms.
I disagree with the tone of your post. I think you are belittling the situation the UK government and BoE are in, and granting them too much choice how to proceed.
I would be first to agree the USA is a different DNA so we would be foolish to copy their policy solutions - your brilliant example of the contrast in mortgage markets is one of many good examples which can explain it. But we arn’t pushing up our own rates over the coming six months to 4%+ to copy the USA - we actually have no choice, that is no choice to give the market the interest rate it wants because of the risk from the basket case asking it for money - a country that’s got into its mess through its own mistakes, not breaking its addiction to low rates and too much QE quickly enough in recent years.
Which brings me to disagree with 3. The degree we imported this inflation, to the degree it’s our own creation. That low interest rates and QE for twenty years didn’t come for free after all.
What gives you the idea that it's losing steam? It wasn't obvious from the article you posted. These sort of errors are slow burn. It's about tarnishing his brand which has happened already. It's not a Hancock more a Johnson or a Patterson.
Yep. And I got a good 2 mins into a fulsome explanation to my wife about his partnership in the 50s with Dean Martin before ... yet more credibility lost.
The swing from centre-right to centre-left blocs is under 1% but that translates to a 6-point lead for the centre-left bloc. However, Lars Lokke Rasmussen's Moderates remain in the middle able to provide a majority for either side of the Folketing. Rasmussen has denied wanting to become Prime Minister himself and it may well be his party will provide support on a case-by-case basis and sit outside any coalition.
You would expect Rasmussen to poll himself very well after all his practice.
Yes, the next 2 years may well be a shitshow, and people have had enough of the Tories, but he's still going to be good.
It's going to be like the handover of Hong Kong in 1997: inevitable, but an honourable end.
Funnily enough, I think those are two premature calls. He could well be shit and he could well win the next election. Labour does a massive policy blunder, the polls narrow enough for the Tories to weaponise the threat of the SNP holding the balance of power, a black swan event... there are definitely paths via which Sunak could win a 10-20 seat majority. Labour are currently 2-0 up at half-time so to speak, but it'd be foolish for them to be complacent.
What gives you the idea that it's losing steam? It wasn't obvious from the article you posted. These sort of errors are slow burn. It's about tarnishing his brand which has happened already. It's not a Hancock more a Johnson or a Patterson.
William seems to have transmogrified from a europhilic agent provocateur to a PB Tory partisan, and a repetitive one at that. I sometimes wonder if there are several Williams, or perhaps just the one William and several realities.
As I said above, Liz Truss for next PM. You’ll thank me later!
Sunak would have to take the Tories down to 5% for Truss to have any chance and even then Boris would be more likely
You underestimate her. It’s clear that the events of the last two months were gamed in advance. She’s playing 4D Chess while the rest of us are struggling at Snakes and Ladders. Truss operates at levels of sophistication well above the rest of us and I advise betting accordingly.
WTF? But she’s rubbish. Getting lost in her own campaign launch event a mere breadstick for the main courses to come.
I agree, the ethos the Tories will unite around and win again in 2029 will be the state slashing, tax slashing dash for growth from the heart of Trussism. But not under Truss. In terms of presenting and selling an ethos she’d lose to a lettuce.
As I said above, Liz Truss for next PM. You’ll thank me later!
Sunak would have to take the Tories down to 5% for Truss to have any chance and even then Boris would be more likely
You underestimate her. It’s clear that the events of the last two months were gamed in advance. She’s playing 4D Chess while the rest of us are struggling at Snakes and Ladders. Truss operates at levels of sophistication well above the rest of us and I advise betting accordingly.
WTF? But she’s rubbish. Getting lost in her own campaign launch event a mere breadstick for the main courses to come.
I agree, the ethos the Tories will unite around and win again in 2029 will be the state slashing, tax slashing dash for growth from the heart of Trussism. But not under Truss. In terms of presenting and selling an ethos she’d lose to a lettuce.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Why would he bother? Seriously? Five years of hard work at the front line coalface and for what? The chance of being PM again in 2028/9?
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
You don't need discipline to be LOTO unlike PM, just to have public recognition, charisma ideally and to be ready to exploit the government's failures
The latter requires not having 3 foreign holidays in 4 months.
Not necessarily, if you are a recognisable enough figure just making the odd statement is fine.
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
Johnson does not have the discipline to be the LotO for more than six months. His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or 2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
No, if Sunak loses he goes and Johnson would then be able to exploit the high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity Labour would then have to deal with in government too
So, a Labour government would lead to high taxes, rising inflation, strikes and austerity?
It's amazing that anybody is even considering voting for them, isn't it?
Any government right now is going to lead to those things.
Paul Ryan, who knows a little about American politics, thinks Republicans won't nominate Trump because more and more Republicans recognize that Trump is a loser: 'Ryan said that the GOP "hasn't lost this much this fast than we have with Trump."
Nose tells me to stay out of the Brazil 2nd round on Sunday, despite the nominally attractive price on Lula de Silva.
Tips? What's attractive in US midterms? I've been eyeing up republicans on 51 or 52 seats in the senate.
That's possible as is Democrats on 51. The polls show that Dem lead in retaining the Senate has been shrinking. The wildcard is what difference the increase in early voting will have. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xZBUCpOfRw
"The former Prime Minister is even considering making public visits to some of the Red Wall seats that swept him to power to highlight the ongoing need to 'level up'.
He is also set to spend time in Washington to maintain pressure on the Biden administration to keep up its support for Ukraine.
Sources said he is also completing a planned biography of Shakespeare and is beginning preparation for writing his own memoirs."
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Are they really anticipating that? That's hilarious if so. They wee themselves saying nobody else has ever recovered from a 30% poll deficit, tell everyone what issues they predict the 2030 GE will be fought on when Starmer apparently seeks a second term, and a few weeks later they get stiffies at the prospect of leading Labour in the polls by Christmas. All while calling other people "bedwetters" at the drop of a hat. What an embarrassment...
The "by Christmas" may have been poetic licence on my part. Nonetheless the ramblings I have read from many of the faithful, including Truss naysayers, are very excited, since Sunak's coronation, at the prospect of another (two in some cases) GE win (s) for Team Tory.
There have been predictions of two more Tory GE victories?
Your customary hyperbole Pete. To be fair to PB Tories I haven’t seen any prediction of poll leads or any predictions of wins. They all seem quietly resigned to the situation and quietly un persuaded about longevity of the little polling upticks this week.
As I said above, Liz Truss for next PM. You’ll thank me later!
Sunak would have to take the Tories down to 5% for Truss to have any chance and even then Boris would be more likely
You underestimate her. It’s clear that the events of the last two months were gamed in advance. She’s playing 4D Chess while the rest of us are struggling at Snakes and Ladders. Truss operates at levels of sophistication well above the rest of us and I advise betting accordingly.
"The former Prime Minister is even considering making public visits to some of the Red Wall seats that swept him to power to highlight the ongoing need to 'level up'.
He is also set to spend time in Washington to maintain pressure on the Biden administration to keep up its support for Ukraine.
Sources said he is also completing a planned biography of Shakespeare and is beginning preparation for writing his own memoirs."
Mail
"The former Prime Minister is even considering making public visits to some of the Red Wall seats that swept him to power to highlight the ongoing need to 'level up'.
Went to see these fellas today on my way home from Perthshire. The Kelpies in Falkirk. Well worth a visit. Perfectly serviceable cafe, too. Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.
There is zero chance of Boris returning as PM before the next general election now. However if Sunak loses and Johnson holds his seat, Johnson would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
Comments
And the economy did pretty well 2013-5.
TUV and SF both down
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2022_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
Apart from anything else he simply does not have the discipline to be a LOTO.
If you suggested he might take over in 2028, six months before a GE when it is looking like they will lose again and he goes for a roll of the dice, then that is different.
Indeed Johnson only wants to be top dog, and certainly not leading an opposition for 5 years
Not that I'm saying history will repeat itself.....
EDIT - somewhere Mar-April 2013, there was a poll that was 45-25 I believe...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
So not random.
Update: UK to halt all imports of Russian LNG from 1 January 2023 - UK Foreign Office
https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1586035025786585090
However, the good news is the country has
Churchill lost in 1945 but remained Leader of the Opposition, took lots of foreign holidays and still came back to win in 1951.
If a Starmer government is unpopular the Tories need a charismatic Opposition leader to exploit that ideally
4–8 Apr TNS BMRB 1,184 25% 40% 10% 14% 4% 7% 15%
The shipping companies are constantly trying to optimize schedules (because your daily running costs of the vessels can be above $50k). And I think - while we've not allowed people to buy from the Russians, you've never known exactly whose gas was going to turn up.
His only way back is either (and I don't think either will happen):
1. Weak minority Labour government in 2024. Sunak ousted, Johnson takes over hoping for a 2025 election to win; or
2. Sunak goes down to a 250 seat defeat with a Labour/LD win in 2024 but Sunak stays on. In late 2027 its clear Labour are going to get a second term and Johnson says to the '22 committee, "You can get a 10 seat gain with Sunak guaranteed, or you roll the dice with me. I might lose you 50, but I could gain you 75." and the '22 committee (who probably should be committed) decide to take the gamble and replace Sunak with Johnson.
I don't think either is likely however.
Shame about his other interests, because I'd love to know what he made of this.
It would be a big bet at poorish odds, but could the party really resist calling Boris back?
Could Boris?
Nose tells me to stay out of the Brazil 2nd round on Sunday, despite the nominally attractive price on Lula de Silva.
Tips? What's attractive in US midterms? I've been eyeing up republicans on 51 or 52 seats in the senate.
What time did you start this afternoon?
Tell me things that will make me money 💰
Firstly, Uxbridge requires a 7.5% swing for Labour to win. Leaving aside that he has an okay chance of overperforming uniform national swing (Labour people will pile in, but they have previously too, and Johnson himself will draw in Tory activists) Sunak would have lost a fair bit before losing Uxbridge. So Labour probably need it for a majority, but can do without it to remove Sunak from Number 10 given Tories remain un-coalitionable at this stage.
Secondly, I'd not at all rule out that Uxbridge won't be the seat Johnson stands in. I can see him potentially developing a sudden and deep affinity for Lincolnshire over coming months.
But well done Nicola. A sage decision.
Yes, the next 2 years may well be a shitshow, and people have had enough of the Tories, but he's still going to be good.
It's going to be like the handover of Hong Kong in 1997: inevitable, but an honourable end.
It's amazing that anybody is even considering voting for them, isn't it?
It would, however, boost Trump for GOP nomination. Whereas losing one or (much less likely) both would undermine his position having been so pivotal in endorsements.
Gorgeous crescent moon about to set in the south-south-west.
Labour are currently 2-0 up at half-time so to speak, but it'd be foolish for them to be complacent.
Rishi isn't going to have a lot of goodies to hand out in the next couple of years. The Conservative polling position remains dire. So he will quite possibly go down to a bad defeat and some of the grassroots will decide that he was too elite, too metropolitan, too agreeable. What will the Tory membership look like in a few years time? The principal weakness of our political system is the way in which a small number of activists can exert a wildly disproportionate influence. There don't need to be that many Trussites.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/28/labour-demand-answers-to-suella-braverman-growth-visa-leak-reports
The guy is deranged. Literally.
Entire team of data engineers let go. These are two of them
#TwitterTakeover
https://twitter.com/dee_bosa/status/1586042389851820034
Four days until polling in Denmark and we have a Megafon poll out with fieldwork from the 26th up to and including today.
Figures (changes from 2019 Folketing election):
Centre-Left Parties:
Social Democrats: 24.8% (-1.1)
Green Left (ex Socialist Folkeparti): 9.4% (+1.7)
Red-Green Alliance: 6.2% (-0.7)
Radikale Venstre: 4.8% (-4.4)
Alternative: 2.5% (-0.5)
Total: 47.7% (-4.3)
Centre-Right Parties:
Venstre: 14.9% (-9.5)
Liberal Alliance: 7.5% (+5.2)
Denmark Democrats: 7.0% (new)
Conservatives: 5.7% (-0.9)
New Right: 4.2% (+1.8)
Danish People's Party: 2.5% (-6.2)
Total: 41.8% (-6.0)
Moderates: 9.7% (new)
The swing from centre-right to centre-left blocs is under 1% but that translates to a 6-point lead for the centre-left bloc. However, Lars Lokke Rasmussen's Moderates remain in the middle able to provide a majority for either side of the Folketing. Rasmussen has denied wanting to become Prime Minister himself and it may well be his party will provide support on a case-by-case basis and sit outside any coalition.
I would be first to agree the USA is a different DNA so we would be foolish to copy their policy solutions - your brilliant example of the contrast in mortgage markets is one of many good examples which can explain it. But we arn’t pushing up our own rates over the coming six months to 4%+ to copy the USA - we actually have no choice, that is no choice to give the market the interest rate it wants because of the risk from the basket case asking it for money - a country that’s got into its mess through its own mistakes, not breaking its addiction to low rates and too much QE quickly enough in recent years.
Which brings me to disagree with 3. The degree we imported this inflation, to the degree it’s our own creation. That low interest rates and QE for twenty years didn’t come for free after all.
I agree, the ethos the Tories will unite around and win again in 2029 will be the state slashing, tax slashing dash for growth from the heart of Trussism. But not under Truss. In terms of presenting and selling an ethos she’d lose to a lettuce.
"We lost the House, the Senate and the White House in the span of two years. I don't want to repeat that. I want to win. And that's why I think we're going to nominate somebody who can win."'
source: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/donald-trump-2024-presidential-election-paul-ryan-gop-nominees
(Recapitulating a Fox Business interview.)
Demoratic strategists agree, which is why some of them have been backing Trumpistas in Republican primaries.
The polls show that Dem lead in retaining the Senate has been shrinking.
The wildcard is what difference the increase in early voting will have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xZBUCpOfRw
Johnson news:
"The former Prime Minister is even considering making public visits to some of the Red Wall seats that swept him to power to highlight the ongoing need to 'level up'.
He is also set to spend time in Washington to maintain pressure on the Biden administration to keep up its support for Ukraine.
Sources said he is also completing a planned biography of Shakespeare and is beginning preparation for writing his own memoirs."
Mail
One of my favourites too.
Trumpesque
Thought I'd be sad to be leaving beautiful, mystical, misty Perthshire. But I'm surprisingly happy to be back in my cold, leaky house in my unremarkable flat suburb. Home is a funny thing.