Some good polling for Sunak over Johnson but terrible polling for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
The public tend to prefer Keir Starmer as PM than the Tory leadership contendersJohnson (35%) vs Starmer (48%)Sunak (34%) vs Starmer (43%)Mordaunt (28%) vs Starmer (43%)https://t.co/wjp8Qx6YW4 pic.twitter.com/PjKybW1ftb
A moron speaks: Boris’s first time in office was a great success, shamefully curtailed. Normies: What the absolute fuck? Moron (who is an MP): Why do you hate so much? Voter: Let me introduce you to the concept of a mirror.
Allison Pearson @AllisonPearson · 2h Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?
Sunak needs to be the Quorn commentator puppet pig of this contest, mellifluously ooking the Tory members in the eyes and going "Forget about the alternative, Patricia"
Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge, 1922 exec) the latest MP to back Rishi Sunak, concluding Boris Johnson would not bring “stability”, but sums up balancing act facing 2019-ers.
Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:
I know the usual notion is innocent until proven guilty. But in a situation where the potential PM is under investigation by the House of Commons' Committee of Privileges, the safety first approach must surely be guilty - for now.
If the 22 had a rule that anybody under a pending investigation could not be a candidate, could anybody really object? The consequence of Boris being found guilty and booted out before Christmas really is an extinction level event. Rightly so.
He shouldn't stand. He shouldn't be ALLOWED to stand.
Allison Pearson @AllisonPearson · 2h Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?
This is Allison Pearson who thought Liz Truss was a great idea.
Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....
Yes that 19% must contain a large number of people thinking the Tories will have someone more sensible in charge by the next general election in 2024. I wonder what the Tories would get if the question was who would you vote for today with the current party leaders? Sub 10%?
I take that back, the questions is about a general election tomorrow.
Bloody hell the electorate are even worse than I thought.
Note both Johnson and Sunak get significant bounces compared to the Tories current poll rating if the preferred PM figures translate into voting intention
Sunak needs to be the Quorn commentator puppet pig of this contest, mellifluously ooking the Tory members in the eyes and going "Forget about the alternative, Patricia"
(FPT)
Sunak is a bit like a meat substitute. It portrays itself as a healthier alternative, but when you actually look at it, it's completely empty of all nutritive value.
Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge, 1922 exec) the latest MP to back Rishi Sunak, concluding Boris Johnson would not bring “stability”, but sums up balancing act facing 2019-ers.
Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:
Allison Pearson @AllisonPearson · 2h Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?
This is Allison Pearson who thought Liz Truss was a great idea.
Even the a-grade nutters in the press seem sane compared to the certifiable Boris boosters in Parliament. That is the game we are in.
Allison Pearson @AllisonPearson · 2h Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?
Labour appears to be much stronger now and could well be competitive in such seats.
Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge, 1922 exec) the latest MP to back Rishi Sunak, concluding Boris Johnson would not bring “stability”, but sums up balancing act facing 2019-ers.
Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:
Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge, 1922 exec) the latest MP to back Rishi Sunak, concluding Boris Johnson would not bring “stability”, but sums up balancing act facing 2019-ers.
Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:
What would be nice (that is obvious) addition to these kind of figures, is number of unknowns?
IF total electorate = 357 but think some of those will NOT nominate due to their position(s)
Subtotal Accounted for = 149 Not Yet Made Nomination = 208
How many will NOT end up nominating anyone = ??? but likely bigger than a breadbox?
The proportions of Sunak Vs Johnson backers does not seem to be changing much through the day. If anything Johnson has edged up fractionally.
If he is going to run out of steam, there is no sign of it yet, if anything he is edging up marginally as Penny nominations dry up. Let's hope he hits the buffers because of those MPs that are holding their counsel.
Note both Johnson and Sunak get significant bounces compared to the Tories current poll rating if the preferred PM figures translate into voting intention
If the membership install Johnson against the will of the majority of conservative mps and most certainly the electorate then they are doing a Corbyn and the next election will be a disaster for the Conservative party
Allison Pearson @AllisonPearson · 2h Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?
The entire Parliamentary Conservative Party is now just flailing about wildly, trying to work out which of the available leadership candidates will lead them to the least crushing defeat. Any vague suggestion that they might care about the country and the good governance thereof long since went in the dustbin.
If Tory MPs, especially those in the red wall seats, think they stand a better chance of avoiding wipeout - collectively, and more particularly for themselves personally - with Johnson in charge than with Sunak, then they are going to vote for Johnson. If the revolting creature can muster the magic hundred votes as a consequence, then he'll likely be returned in glory by the demented fossil members.
Of course, the complication with this madcap scheme to put the final two to a snap online vote of the members is, as the Times reported, that a substantial fraction (estimated to be 20,000) are very ancient indeed and don't have email addresses (or, most likely, any real conception of what email actually is.) If they hold a membership ballot that excludes a large fraction of the members, and the margin of victory for the winner is then less than crushing, the courts could easily be dragged into this...
New: Moody's rating agency changes its outlook on the UK to negative tonight. This follows in the wake of S&P who did a similar outlook change three weeks ago in the aftermath of the mini budget https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1583558764690493440
I know the usual notion is innocent until proven guilty. But in a situation where the potential PM is under investigation by the House of Commons' Committee of Privileges, the safety first approach must surely be guilty - for now.
If the 22 had a rule that anybody under a pending investigation could not be a candidate, could anybody really object? The consequence of Boris being found guilty and booted out before Christmas really is an extinction level event. Rightly so.
He shouldn't stand. He shouldn't be ALLOWED to stand.
Decent Chap Governance. Apart from BoJo, would any imaginable Conservative MP put themselves forward for the leadership whilst under a pending investigation?
(Remember the old gag from Bozza's leadership collapse? When the 1922 Committee have had enough, the Chairman presents the PM with a tumbler of whisky and a loaded revolver. Boris would shoot the 1922 Chairman and then drink the whisky.)
Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train
Sunak needs to be the Quorn commentator puppet pig of this contest, mellifluously ooking the Tory members in the eyes and going "Forget about the alternative, Patricia"
(FPT)
Sunak is a bit like a meat substitute. It portrays itself as a healthier alternative, but when you actually look at it, it's completely empty of all nutritive value.
Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train
Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train
Hatt Mancock is quite typical of the 'gizza job' types clustering around Rishi (again). I'll give Rishi a chance if he gets the job, but it will be quite delicious if he doesn't, even if it means Bojo back in No. 10.
Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....
Next goal has to be single figures.
It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
Sunak needs a big majority of MPs and buy off Bozo with a big Ukraine related role - special envoy or some such, give him something to do that he is actually passable at. Then can we please have a couple boring months of stable government with occasional Mark Francois baiting
Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train
Is there a hustings?
Apparently so. Cos what the nation lacks most at this critical moment, is an hour or two of Tory televised pontificating, bullshit and cant.
NHS England published draft specifications for specialist services for children with gender dysphoria, following Cass interim review yesterday. V positive development & a move away from unevidenced affirmative model pushed by Mermaids. Thread follows:
An emphasis on multidisciplinary care & integrated approach to assessing co-presentations like autism and ADHD, depression, anxiety. -An emphasis that primary intervention for children referred to this service is psychological not medical.
-A clinical approach reflecting evidence that in most pre-pubertal children, gender incongruence doesn’t persist into adolescence. -An approach mindful of risks of inappropriate social transition inc difficulties in detransitioning socially should gender incongruence not persist
Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train
Is there a hustings?
Apparently so. Cos what the nation lacks most at this critical moment, is an hour or two of Tory televised pontificating, bullshit and cant.
Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train
Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....
Next goal has to be single figures.
It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
As far as I can see the one key difference between the two front runners is that nobody is suggesting that Sunak is in any way untenable as a leader. For Johnson however we have plenty of quotes like these:
“I don’t see how it’s feasible for him to bring the stability we need when he’s still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for misleading Parliament…I hope someone is pointing that out to him, frankly.” Aaron Bell
“The idea of him returning as the solution, that would be going around in circles, circles that become the death spiral of the Conservative party, and I think it’s the worst idea I’ve heard in the 46 years I’ve been a member of the Conservative party.” William Hague
"There are several very good potential candidates for Conservative leader. But choosing Boris now would be — and I say this advisedly — an absolutely catastrophic decision." Jesse Norman
“His premiership came to an end for a reason, which is that there were serious questions about competence, credibility, and ethics. Does the Conservative Party want to go back to that?” Robert Jenrick
"First, Johnson made the Tories a comedy. Then Truss turned them into a laughing stock. A Johnson return would risk emptying the theatre altogether, as most of the public run screaming for the exits." Paul Goodman
“There was a reason he left office. The problem was the sense of confusion and chaos that surrounded him." Lord Frost (!)
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Away and play with a train set. You've said that about two or twenty times today already.
Assuming this gets dirty and there isn’t a Tory coronation…
What will Charles do?
This is the question every sharp journalist should be asking, right now.
He will appoint as PM whoever the Conservative Party elects as leader under their rules.
If Starmer calls a VONC and the government survives then that is that, if the government loses a VONC then the King dissolves Parliament and calls a general election
Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....
Next goal has to be single figures.
It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
This is a good point. We're often told Scotland is no different in terms of social attitudes yet here we are with the Tories down there on rounding error %s with the Family Party or the Women's Equality Party. The Tories could go lower. They could cease to exist. That's not a prediction, but it's definitely on the table.
And it's not as if the Scottish Tories were a separate party, either, so that doesn't explain it.
Note both Johnson and Sunak get significant bounces compared to the Tories current poll rating if the preferred PM figures translate into voting intention
Very hard not get a bounce when you hit the floor.
NEW @MoodysInvSvc lowers UK sovereign rating outlook to negative because of “heightened unpredictability in policy making” and “risks to UKs debt affordability and a sustained weakening in policy credibility”
Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....
Next goal has to be single figures.
It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
I absolutely recognize the variation in the nations, and even between the English regions. I was just talking about the headline number.
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Forget 2019 this is now, and the conservative party is facing an extinction event that can only accelerate if Johnson becomes PM against the majority of his mps and the wishes of the country
You and your like are very much a 'cult' exactly the same as Corbynites, and threatening terminal damage to the party you allegedly support
Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....
Next goal has to be single figures.
It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
I absolutely recognize the variation in the nations, and even between the English regions. I was just talking about the headline number.
Note both Johnson and Sunak get significant bounces compared to the Tories current poll rating if the preferred PM figures translate into voting intention
Very hard not get a bounce when you hit the floor.
I think we need to know how many members don't have email addresses and will not be able to vote. Just seen The Times suggest it is ca. 20k members, a vast majority of those would be in the Boris camp IMO.
Allison Pearson @AllisonPearson · 2h Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?
Labour appears to be much stronger now and could well be competitive in such seats.
A very strong anti-Tory tactical vote will return LD MPs in seats where the party is the obvious second placed challenger to the Conservative incumbent - but, owing to the extreme damage caused by the Coalition, there are a lot fewer of those constituencies about than there used to be. I'd imagine that you probably wouldn't need to work your way that far down the list of Tory-facing LD targets before you started to find ones where the yellows were third behind Labour, and you would've thought that most of those would indeed be far more likely to turn red.
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Away and play with a train set. You've said that about two or twenty times today already.
NEW @MoodysInvSvc lowers UK sovereign rating outlook to negative because of “heightened unpredictability in policy making” and “risks to UKs debt affordability and a sustained weakening in policy credibility”
How long does it take Bojo to get home? Slothful and slapdash as always.
With any luck, by the time he lands he will be told he can't win this.
For the sake of this country, we can only hope. Though I am still massively concerned that a number of cabinet members think he can waltz back in, no harm done..
Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
Away and play with a train set. You've said that about two or twenty times today already.
Comments
Normies: What the absolute fuck?
Moron (who is an MP): Why do you hate so much?
Voter: Let me introduce you to the concept of a mirror.
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1583557133676576768
Allison Pearson
@AllisonPearson
·
2h
Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?
(FPT)
Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:
Sunak: 84
Johnson: 44
Mordaunt: 21 https://twitter.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1583557812889976833/photo/1
If the 22 had a rule that anybody under a pending investigation could not be a candidate, could anybody really object? The consequence of Boris being found guilty and booted out before Christmas really is an extinction level event. Rightly so.
He shouldn't stand. He shouldn't be ALLOWED to stand.
I take that back, the questions is about a general election tomorrow.
Bloody hell the electorate are even worse than I thought.
Should just have said: “Piss off Boris, you fucking has-been helmet”
Bad language is maybe a comfort but hardly is persuasive to making the case that Johnson is not the right choice
IF total electorate = 357 but think some of those will NOT nominate due to their position(s)
Subtotal Accounted for = 149
Not Yet Made Nomination = 208
How many will NOT end up nominating anyone = ??? but likely bigger than a breadbox?
If he is going to run out of steam, there is no sign of it yet, if anything he is edging up marginally as Penny nominations dry up. Let's hope he hits the buffers because of those MPs that are holding their counsel.
Rishi Sunak is the first to cross the line. He has 100 nominations.
Well according to Guido Fawkes
https://order-order.com/2022/10/21/whos-backing-who-the-spreadsheet-returns/
p.s. @TSE is absolutely correct
If Tory MPs, especially those in the red wall seats, think they stand a better chance of avoiding wipeout - collectively, and more particularly for themselves personally - with Johnson in charge than with Sunak, then they are going to vote for Johnson. If the revolting creature can muster the magic hundred votes as a consequence, then he'll likely be returned in glory by the demented fossil members.
Of course, the complication with this madcap scheme to put the final two to a snap online vote of the members is, as the Times reported, that a substantial fraction (estimated to be 20,000) are very ancient indeed and don't have email addresses (or, most likely, any real conception of what email actually is.) If they hold a membership ballot that excludes a large fraction of the members, and the margin of victory for the winner is then less than crushing, the courts could easily be dragged into this...
https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1583558764690493440
(Remember the old gag from Bozza's leadership collapse? When the 1922 Committee have had enough, the Chairman presents the PM with a tumbler of whisky and a loaded revolver. Boris would shoot the 1922 Chairman and then drink the whisky.)
Stuff to keep with your Consignia mug….
Lets hope it is 0/3.
Kelly Clarkson & Dwayne Johnson Duet
'Don't Come Home a Drinkin' By Loretta Lynn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xOBCQ5-zXE
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1583561207612481537
SNP 58%
SLab 22%
SLD 7%
Grn 3%
Ref 3%
SCon 3%
oth 3%
Cos what the nation lacks most at this critical moment, is an hour or two of Tory televised pontificating, bullshit and cant.
NHS England published draft specifications for specialist services for children with gender dysphoria, following Cass interim review yesterday. V positive development & a move away from unevidenced affirmative model pushed by Mermaids. Thread follows:
An emphasis on multidisciplinary care & integrated approach to assessing co-presentations like autism and ADHD, depression, anxiety.
-An emphasis that primary intervention for children referred to this service is psychological not medical.
-A clinical approach reflecting evidence that in most pre-pubertal children, gender incongruence doesn’t persist into adolescence.
-An approach mindful of risks of inappropriate social transition inc difficulties in detransitioning socially should gender incongruence not persist
https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1583514952190816258
What will Charles do?
This is the question every sharp journalist should be asking, right now.
If they continue with this Boris love in, the tories deserve to be out of power for generations
Night all.
“I don’t see how it’s feasible for him to bring the stability we need when he’s still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for misleading Parliament…I hope someone is pointing that out to him, frankly.” Aaron Bell
“The idea of him returning as the solution, that would be going around in circles, circles that become the death spiral of the Conservative party, and I think it’s the worst idea I’ve heard in the 46 years I’ve been a member of the Conservative party.” William Hague
"There are several very good potential candidates for Conservative leader. But choosing Boris now would be — and I say this advisedly — an absolutely catastrophic decision." Jesse Norman
“His premiership came to an end for a reason, which is that there were serious questions about competence, credibility, and ethics. Does the Conservative Party want to go back to that?” Robert Jenrick
"First, Johnson made the Tories a comedy. Then Truss turned them into a laughing stock. A Johnson return would risk emptying the theatre altogether, as most of the public run screaming for the exits." Paul Goodman
“There was a reason he left office. The problem was the sense of confusion and chaos that surrounded him." Lord Frost (!)
No idea if that will prove telling or not.
GIMME THAT THING
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCaG7HpfhI8
If Starmer calls a VONC and the government survives then that is that, if the government loses a VONC then the King dissolves Parliament and calls a general election
@MoodysInvSvc lowers UK sovereign rating outlook to negative because of “heightened unpredictability in policy making” and “risks to UKs debt affordability and a sustained weakening in policy credibility”
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-the-outlook-on-the-UK-to-negative-affirms--PR_469280
You and your like are very much a 'cult' exactly the same as Corbynites, and threatening terminal damage to the party you allegedly support
Actually, it would be good if she does stand and peels away a few loons from Bozo.
"He's not going to do it ... Dudders."
This\ might be OK. Used to have one like it when I was about 4.