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Some good polling for Sunak over Johnson but terrible polling for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
Some good polling for Sunak over Johnson but terrible polling for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

The public tend to prefer Keir Starmer as PM than the Tory leadership contendersJohnson (35%) vs Starmer (48%)Sunak (34%) vs Starmer (43%)Mordaunt (28%) vs Starmer (43%)https://t.co/wjp8Qx6YW4 pic.twitter.com/PjKybW1ftb

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Comments

  • Test
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    DAILY MAIL : Could ⁦@BorisJohnson⁩ and ⁦@RishiSunak⁩ now UNITE to save Tories #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1583557156804362240/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    A moron speaks: Boris’s first time in office was a great success, shamefully curtailed.
    Normies: What the absolute fuck?
    Moron (who is an MP): Why do you hate so much?
    Voter: Let me introduce you to the concept of a mirror.

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1583557133676576768
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    edited October 21
    Sunak needs to be the Quorn commentator puppet pig of this contest, mellifluously ooking the Tory members in the eyes and going "Forget about the alternative, Patricia"

    (FPT)
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge, 1922 exec) the latest MP to back Rishi Sunak, concluding Boris Johnson would not bring “stability”, but sums up balancing act facing 2019-ers.

    Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:

    Sunak: 84
    Johnson: 44
    Mordaunt: 21 https://twitter.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1583557812889976833/photo/1
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    2h
    Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?

    This is Allison Pearson who thought Liz Truss was a great idea.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788
    edited October 21

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Yes that 19% must contain a large number of people thinking the Tories will have someone more sensible in charge by the next general election in 2024. I wonder what the Tories would get if the question was who would you vote for today with the current party leaders? Sub 10%?

    I take that back, the questions is about a general election tomorrow.

    Bloody hell the electorate are even worse than I thought.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    A placard that speaks for the country more than any Tory PM ever will. https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1583486654391541760/photo/1
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,304
    Weasel words from Bell/Price.

    Should just have said: “Piss off Boris, you fucking has-been helmet”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    Note both Johnson and Sunak get significant bounces compared to the Tories current poll rating if the preferred PM figures translate into voting intention
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    Farooq said:

    Please let there be Tory/LibDem crossover.

    I'm dreaming of the Tory-Green crossover
    Or, in Scotland, Tory/Alba.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    edited October 21
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunak needs to be the Quorn commentator puppet pig of this contest, mellifluously ooking the Tory members in the eyes and going "Forget about the alternative, Patricia"

    (FPT)

    Sunak is a bit like a meat substitute. It portrays itself as a healthier alternative, but when you actually look at it, it's completely empty of all nutritive value.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Please let there be Tory/LibDem crossover.

    I'm dreaming of the Tory-Green crossover
    Or, in Scotland, Tory/Alba.
    I'm not dreaming of that. Alba are scum, no less so than the Tories. I'm want them both in the bin.
  • Weasel words from Bell/Price.

    Should just have said: “Piss off Boris, you fucking has-been helmet”

    Sensible comments by one of our own

    Bad language is maybe a comfort but hardly is persuasive to making the case that Johnson is not the right choice
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,454
    Scott_xP said:

    Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge, 1922 exec) the latest MP to back Rishi Sunak, concluding Boris Johnson would not bring “stability”, but sums up balancing act facing 2019-ers.

    Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:

    Sunak: 84
    Johnson: 44
    Mordaunt: 21 https://twitter.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1583557812889976833/photo/1

    What would be nice (that is obvious) addition to these kind of figures, is number of unknowns?

    IF total electorate = 357 but think some of those will NOT nominate due to their position(s)

    Subtotal Accounted for = 149
    Not Yet Made Nomination = 208

    How many will NOT end up nominating anyone = ??? but likely bigger than a breadbox?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,304
    Alistair said:


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    2h
    Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?

    This is Allison Pearson who thought Liz Truss was a great idea.
    Even the a-grade nutters in the press seem sane compared to the certifiable Boris boosters in Parliament. That is the game we are in.
  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    2h
    Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?

    Labour appears to be much stronger now and could well be competitive in such seats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    Scott_xP said:

    Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge, 1922 exec) the latest MP to back Rishi Sunak, concluding Boris Johnson would not bring “stability”, but sums up balancing act facing 2019-ers.

    Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:

    Sunak: 84
    Johnson: 44
    Mordaunt: 21 https://twitter.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1583557812889976833/photo/1

    She used to be a Johnson supporter I think.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842

    Scott_xP said:

    Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge, 1922 exec) the latest MP to back Rishi Sunak, concluding Boris Johnson would not bring “stability”, but sums up balancing act facing 2019-ers.

    Latest @thetimes tally of public and/or confirmed backers:

    Sunak: 84
    Johnson: 44
    Mordaunt: 21 https://twitter.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1583557812889976833/photo/1

    What would be nice (that is obvious) addition to these kind of figures, is number of unknowns?

    IF total electorate = 357 but think some of those will NOT nominate due to their position(s)

    Subtotal Accounted for = 149
    Not Yet Made Nomination = 208

    How many will NOT end up nominating anyone = ??? but likely bigger than a breadbox?
    The proportions of Sunak Vs Johnson backers does not seem to be changing much through the day. If anything Johnson has edged up fractionally.

    If he is going to run out of steam, there is no sign of it yet, if anything he is edging up marginally as Penny nominations dry up. Let's hope he hits the buffers because of those MPs that are holding their counsel.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 21
    BREAKING!

    Rishi Sunak is the first to cross the line. He has 100 nominations.

    Well according to Guido Fawkes

    https://order-order.com/2022/10/21/whos-backing-who-the-spreadsheet-returns/

    p.s. @TSE is absolutely correct
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640

    Weasel words from Bell/Price.

    Should just have said: “Piss off Boris, you fucking has-been helmet”

    Sensible comments by one of our own

    Bad language is maybe a comfort but hardly is persuasive to making the case that Johnson is not the right choice
    I find swearing to be a positive thing, and sign of sincerity. Much more persuasive than the high-mannered psychopathy of that smarmy worm Rees-Mogg.
  • HYUFD said:

    Note both Johnson and Sunak get significant bounces compared to the Tories current poll rating if the preferred PM figures translate into voting intention

    If the membership install Johnson against the will of the majority of conservative mps and most certainly the electorate then they are doing a Corbyn and the next election will be a disaster for the Conservative party
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    DAILY MAIL : Could ⁦@BorisJohnson⁩ and ⁦@RishiSunak⁩ now UNITE to save Tories #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1583557156804362240/photo/1

    QTWTAIN.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    2h
    Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?

    The entire Parliamentary Conservative Party is now just flailing about wildly, trying to work out which of the available leadership candidates will lead them to the least crushing defeat. Any vague suggestion that they might care about the country and the good governance thereof long since went in the dustbin.

    If Tory MPs, especially those in the red wall seats, think they stand a better chance of avoiding wipeout - collectively, and more particularly for themselves personally - with Johnson in charge than with Sunak, then they are going to vote for Johnson. If the revolting creature can muster the magic hundred votes as a consequence, then he'll likely be returned in glory by the demented fossil members.

    Of course, the complication with this madcap scheme to put the final two to a snap online vote of the members is, as the Times reported, that a substantial fraction (estimated to be 20,000) are very ancient indeed and don't have email addresses (or, most likely, any real conception of what email actually is.) If they hold a membership ballot that excludes a large fraction of the members, and the margin of victory for the winner is then less than crushing, the courts could easily be dragged into this...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    We need economic stability. That’s why I’m backing @RishiSunak. https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1583560749955584001/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    New: Moody's rating agency changes its outlook on the UK to negative tonight. This follows in the wake of S&P who did a similar outlook change three weeks ago in the aftermath of the mini budget
    https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1583558764690493440
  • I know the usual notion is innocent until proven guilty. But in a situation where the potential PM is under investigation by the House of Commons' Committee of Privileges, the safety first approach must surely be guilty - for now.

    If the 22 had a rule that anybody under a pending investigation could not be a candidate, could anybody really object? The consequence of Boris being found guilty and booted out before Christmas really is an extinction level event. Rightly so.

    He shouldn't stand. He shouldn't be ALLOWED to stand.

    Decent Chap Governance. Apart from BoJo, would any imaginable Conservative MP put themselves forward for the leadership whilst under a pending investigation?

    (Remember the old gag from Bozza's leadership collapse? When the 1922 Committee have had enough, the Chairman presents the PM with a tumbler of whisky and a loaded revolver. Boris would shoot the 1922 Chairman and then drink the whisky.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    Liz Truss merchandise going on eBay…snap it up while stocks last!

    Stuff to keep with your Consignia mug….


  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,454
    Great tribute to the late, great Loretta Lynn, featuring one of her most famous songs and hits:

    Kelly Clarkson & Dwayne Johnson Duet
    'Don't Come Home a Drinkin' By Loretta Lynn
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xOBCQ5-zXE
  • Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    NEW: Rishi Sunak becomes the first Tory leadership candidate to hit the 100 threshold to make it onto ballot paper, sources say.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1583561207612481537
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,454
    edited October 21
    IanB2 said:

    Liz Truss merchandise going on eBay…snap it up while stocks last!

    Stuff to keep with your Consignia mug….


    Cheap and highly effective birth control.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    Scottish Tories at 3% in today’s People Polling/GB News:

    SNP 58%
    SLab 22%
    SLD 7%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%
    SCon 3%
    oth 3%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    NEW: Rishi Sunak becomes the first Tory leadership candidate to hit the 100 threshold to make it onto ballot paper, sources say.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1583561207612481537

    Makes no difference unless Johnson fails to get 100.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Ellwood - a Mordaunt supporter in the last round of MPs voting - puts Sunak over the line https://twitter.com/tobias_ellwood/status/1583560922139791361
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunak needs to be the Quorn commentator puppet pig of this contest, mellifluously ooking the Tory members in the eyes and going "Forget about the alternative, Patricia"

    (FPT)

    Sunak is a bit like a meat substitute. It portrays itself as a healthier alternative, but when you actually look at it, it's completely empty of all nutritive value.
    And with loads of added sugar.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train

    Is there a hustings?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,454
    IanB2 said:

    Liz Truss merchandise going on eBay…snap it up while stocks last!

    Stuff to keep with your Consignia mug….


    Just imagine what's being "flogged" on the Dark Web?!?
  • Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train

    Is there a hustings?
    Yes and I expect an instant poll
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    IanB2 said:

    Liz Truss merchandise going on eBay…snap it up while stocks last!

    Stuff to keep with your Consignia mug….


    Even her dad isn't buying.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Liz Truss merchandise going on eBay…snap it up while stocks last!

    Stuff to keep with your Consignia mug….


    Cheap and highly effective birth control.
    According to (Finnish?) reports, the reproductive entrance was not really her thing?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    NEW: Rishi Sunak becomes the first Tory leadership candidate to hit the 100 threshold to make it onto ballot paper, sources say.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1583561207612481537

    Makes no difference unless Johnson fails to get 100.
    This is not true
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    edited October 21

    NEW: Rishi Sunak becomes the first Tory leadership candidate to hit the 100 threshold to make it onto ballot paper, sources say.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1583561207612481537

    Hatt Mancock is quite typical of the 'gizza job' types clustering around Rishi (again). I'll give Rishi a chance if he gets the job, but it will be quite delicious if he doesn't, even if it means Bojo back in No. 10.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    glw said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
    We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Anyway night all. Going to bed with a vague sense that tory MPs might be pulling back from the chasm.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,454

    Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train

    Is there a hustings?
    Apparently so.
    Cos what the nation lacks most at this critical moment, is an hour or two of Tory televised pontificating, bullshit and cant.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    In more Grown Ups news:


    NHS England published draft specifications for specialist services for children with gender dysphoria, following Cass interim review yesterday. V positive development & a move away from unevidenced affirmative model pushed by Mermaids. Thread follows:

    An emphasis on multidisciplinary care & integrated approach to assessing co-presentations like autism and ADHD, depression, anxiety.
    -An emphasis that primary intervention for children referred to this service is psychological not medical.

    -A clinical approach reflecting evidence that in most pre-pubertal children, gender incongruence doesn’t persist into adolescence.
    -An approach mindful of risks of inappropriate social transition inc difficulties in detransitioning socially should gender incongruence not persist


    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1583514952190816258
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 21
    Assuming this gets dirty and there isn’t a Tory coronation…

    What will Charles do?

    This is the question every sharp journalist should be asking, right now.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673
    If it’s not obvious to the majority of non ERG headbangers, Sunak will likely provide some stability that the country so sorely needs

    If they continue with this Boris love in, the tories deserve to be out of power for generations
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    dixiedean said:

    Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train

    Is there a hustings?
    Apparently so.
    Cos what the nation lacks most at this critical moment, is an hour or two of Tory televised pontificating, bullshit and cant.
    I read somewhere that it’ll be in private
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771
    edited October 21

    NEW: Rishi Sunak becomes the first Tory leadership candidate to hit the 100 threshold to make it onto ballot paper, sources say.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1583561207612481537

    Be interesting to see if Rishi being safely over 100 means that Penny starts picking up any Stop Boris nominations.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    If it’s not obvious to the majority of non ERG headbangers, Sunak will likely provide some stability that the country so sorely needs

    If they continue with this Boris love in, the tories deserve to be out of power for generations

    Yep. Totally agree.

    Night all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    ...

    Anyway the hustings are going to be very interesting as Johnson tries to wriggle out of the privileges committee, his partygate and above all else his lies as rest assured these are coming at hi like an express train

    Them's the breaks.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    edited October 21
    mwadams said:

    glw said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
    We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
    A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    ping said:

    Assuming this gets dirty and there isn’t a Tory coronation…

    What will Charles do?

    This is the question every sharp journalist should be asking, right now.

    Mr Moore?
  • Heathener said:

    Anyway night all. Going to bed with a vague sense that tory MPs might be pulling back from the chasm.

    I really hope you are right and have a good night's rest
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,022
    Rishi's going to win. 👍
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    ping said:

    Assuming this gets dirty and there isn’t a Tory coronation…

    What will Charles do?

    This is the question every sharp journalist should be asking, right now.

    Erm... just wait for the members vote and the 1922 declaration of the winner??
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    As far as I can see the one key difference between the two front runners is that nobody is suggesting that Sunak is in any way untenable as a leader. For Johnson however we have plenty of quotes like these:

    “I don’t see how it’s feasible for him to bring the stability we need when he’s still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for misleading Parliament…I hope someone is pointing that out to him, frankly.” Aaron Bell

    “The idea of him returning as the solution, that would be going around in circles, circles that become the death spiral of the Conservative party, and I think it’s the worst idea I’ve heard in the 46 years I’ve been a member of the Conservative party.” William Hague

    "There are several very good potential candidates for Conservative leader. But choosing Boris now would be — and I say this advisedly — an absolutely catastrophic decision." Jesse Norman

    “His premiership came to an end for a reason, which is that there were serious questions about competence, credibility, and ethics. Does the Conservative Party want to go back to that?” Robert Jenrick

    "First, Johnson made the Tories a comedy. Then Truss turned them into a laughing stock. A Johnson return would risk emptying the theatre altogether, as most of the public run screaming for the exits." Paul Goodman

    “There was a reason he left office. The problem was the sense of confusion and chaos that surrounded him." Lord Frost (!)

    No idea if that will prove telling or not.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    Carnyx said:

    mwadams said:

    glw said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
    We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
    A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
    This is a good point. We're often told Scotland is no different in terms of social attitudes yet here we are with the Tories down there on rounding error %s with the Family Party or the Women's Equality Party. The Tories could go lower. They could cease to exist. That's not a prediction, but it's definitely on the table.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,454
    Boris Johnson Campaign Song - October 2022

    GIMME THAT THING
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCaG7HpfhI8
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    Scottish Tories at 3% in today’s People Polling/GB News:

    SNP 58%
    SLab 22%
    SLD 7%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%
    SCon 3%
    oth 3%
    Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    HYUFD said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    Scottish Tories at 3% in today’s People Polling/GB News:

    SNP 58%
    SLab 22%
    SLD 7%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%
    SCon 3%
    oth 3%
    Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
    Away and play with a train set. You've said that about two or twenty times today already.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Liz Truss merchandise going on eBay…snap it up while stocks last!

    Stuff to keep with your Consignia mug….


    Cheap and highly effective birth control.
    According to (Finnish?) reports, the reproductive entrance was not really her thing?
    What can you mean?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    HYUFD said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    Scottish Tories at 3% in today’s People Polling/GB News:

    SNP 58%
    SLab 22%
    SLD 7%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%
    SCon 3%
    oth 3%
    Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
    Salmond is almost entirely irrelevant right now. He could stand 59 candidates and might not make a difference in a single seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    ping said:

    Assuming this gets dirty and there isn’t a Tory coronation…

    What will Charles do?

    This is the question every sharp journalist should be asking, right now.

    He will appoint as PM whoever the Conservative Party elects as leader under their rules.

    If Starmer calls a VONC and the government survives then that is that, if the government loses a VONC then the King dissolves Parliament and calls a general election
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Have people noticed there is a "Will BoJo receive 100+ nominations" market on Betfair?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    mwadams said:

    glw said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
    We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
    A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
    This is a good point. We're often told Scotland is no different in terms of social attitudes yet here we are with the Tories down there on rounding error %s with the Family Party or the Women's Equality Party. The Tories could go lower. They could cease to exist. That's not a prediction, but it's definitely on the table.
    And it's not as if the Scottish Tories were a separate party, either, so that doesn't explain it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Yes @1.62 / No @2.42
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    Scottish Tories at 3% in today’s People Polling/GB News:

    SNP 58%
    SLab 22%
    SLD 7%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%
    SCon 3%
    oth 3%
    Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
    Away and play with a train set. You've said that about two or twenty times today already.
    He will keep explaining Scotland until the Scottish finally understand by Jove
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,227
    HYUFD said:

    Note both Johnson and Sunak get significant bounces compared to the Tories current poll rating if the preferred PM figures translate into voting intention

    Very hard not get a bounce when you hit the floor.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    NEW
    @MoodysInvSvc lowers UK sovereign rating outlook to negative because of “heightened unpredictability in policy making” and “risks to UKs debt affordability and a sustained weakening in policy credibility”

    https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-the-outlook-on-the-UK-to-negative-affirms--PR_469280
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Carnyx said:

    mwadams said:

    glw said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
    We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
    A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
    I absolutely recognize the variation in the nations, and even between the English regions. I was just talking about the headline number.
  • HYUFD said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    Scottish Tories at 3% in today’s People Polling/GB News:

    SNP 58%
    SLab 22%
    SLD 7%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%
    SCon 3%
    oth 3%
    Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
    Forget 2019 this is now, and the conservative party is facing an extinction event that can only accelerate if Johnson becomes PM against the majority of his mps and the wishes of the country

    You and your like are very much a 'cult' exactly the same as Corbynites, and threatening terminal damage to the party you allegedly support
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Lay Yes back Bojo as next leader?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Chris said:

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Liz Truss merchandise going on eBay…snap it up while stocks last!

    Stuff to keep with your Consignia mug….


    Cheap and highly effective birth control.
    According to (Finnish?) reports, the reproductive entrance was not really her thing?
    What can you mean?
    Buggered if I know....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    mwadams said:

    Carnyx said:

    mwadams said:

    glw said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    It's nuts that that's not even a nuts idea now.
    We have not established what the floor is. I didn't really think it would breach 20%. I'm fairly certain it won't drop below 15%. But we live in interesting times.
    A very Anglocentric view, mind. But fair enough within that limitation.
    I absolutely recognize the variation in the nations, and even between the English regions. I was just talking about the headline number.
    Quite so!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note both Johnson and Sunak get significant bounces compared to the Tories current poll rating if the preferred PM figures translate into voting intention

    Very hard not get a bounce when you hit the floor.
    But still far less than a dead cat....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Alistair said:

    Lay Yes back Bojo as next leader?

    I think we need to know how many members don't have email addresses and will not be able to vote. Just seen The Times suggest it is ca. 20k members, a vast majority of those would be in the Boris camp IMO.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,454
    How long does it take Bojo to get home? Slothful and slapdash as always.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157


    Allison Pearson
    @AllisonPearson
    ·
    2h
    Boris was losing the Tory party’s safe seats to the Lib Dems. How is he not going to do that the second time round?

    Labour appears to be much stronger now and could well be competitive in such seats.
    A very strong anti-Tory tactical vote will return LD MPs in seats where the party is the obvious second placed challenger to the Conservative incumbent - but, owing to the extreme damage caused by the Coalition, there are a lot fewer of those constituencies about than there used to be. I'd imagine that you probably wouldn't need to work your way that far down the list of Tory-facing LD targets before you started to find ones where the yellows were third behind Labour, and you would've thought that most of those would indeed be far more likely to turn red.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,227
    Heathener said:

    Anyway night all. Going to bed with a vague sense that tory MPs might be pulling back from the chasm.

    More than vague in my case.

    "He's not going to do it ... Dudders."
  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Frankly 19% is remarkably high, given the spectacle of the past week....

    Next goal has to be single figures.
    Scottish Tories at 3% in today’s People Polling/GB News:

    SNP 58%
    SLab 22%
    SLD 7%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 3%
    SCon 3%
    oth 3%
    Even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019, they will change under the new leader. While Salmond likely stands candidates against Sturgeon if she continues to rule out UDI
    Away and play with a train set. You've said that about two or twenty times today already.
    A train set is too grown up for him
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    edited October 21

    Rishi's going to win. 👍

    I am adding to my BJ lay bet - still good odds - you can feel his Mo starting to falter
This discussion has been closed.